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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready folks for an election to remember….!

The Intellectually stimulating campaign begins
LAB protesters @ CON Launch
CON ones @ LAB launch
Via @PoliticalPics pic.twitter.com/ktUELzqgsM

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MaxPB

First!

MaxPB

Chicken suits are lame. No impact any more. Labour need a new attack line because the first "debate" was relatively successful and the people who watched it enjoyed both Paxman sections. Something that would not have been possible under the 7-5-2 format.

Philip_Thompson

I would expect the 2.5 million to have watched the Paxman debates to be the most politically engaged in the country. Who probably already by and large have rather entrenched views. I doubt we'll see much movement as I doubt many uncertain swing voters were engaged.

tlg86

"Even if LAB was to lose every single Scottish MP this would increase its target of gains from CON in England & Wales to just 21 seats."

I think that should read by 21 seats.

RodCrosby

"Just 21 seats."

Or about an extra 1.5% swing, or an extra 3% lead!

I don't know why I bother, sometimes...

initforthemoney

FPT

Roger said:

It's always surprising to wander round Scottish cities like Aberdeen and see 'The Gordon Brown Buildings' Gordon Brown Avenue Gordon Brown Passage etc etc. The man was a Colossus

The Gordon Brown Memorial Garden in Troon is named after the former Scotland and British Lions lock.

Morris_Dancer

Damned curse of the new thread!

Betting Post

F1: pre-race piece up now, including two short odds tips:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/malaysia-pre-race.html

FrancisUrquhart

Philip_Thompson said:

I would expect the 2.5 million to have watched the Paxman debates to be the most politically engaged in the country. Who probably already by and large have rather entrenched views. I doubt we'll see much movement as I doubt many uncertain swing voters were engaged.

2.5 million is roughly about what QT gets...QT not exactly known to be viewed by many outside sad political obsessives these days.

However, unlike QT, the "highlights" have been repeated across the news channels along with the mode music that the journos wanted to report.

LordLucan

Hello everyone, first post here. Does anyone think the ever-increasing decline of print media could have an impact on the Election? For instance, the Sun's circulation is down about a third since the last election, and whilst you wouldn't necessarily overplay that, that paper probably has more influence on the type of voter who wants guidance than most (see Kinnock and the lightbulb front page/"it's The Sun wot won it")

isam

LordLucan said:

Hello everyone, first post here. Does anyone think the ever-increasing decline of print media could have an impact on the Election? For instance, the Sun's circulation is down about a third since the last election, and whilst you wouldn't necessarily overplay that, that paper probably has more influence on the type of voter who wants guidance than most (see Kinnock and the lightbulb front page/"it's The Sun wot won it")

Where the fuck have you been?

Plato

Welcome and nice to see you still At Large.

The print media regularly set the media agenda - so their *decline* in print numbers isn't significant as the broadcasters frequently lead with their output and of course the interweb is substituting paper for digital eyeballs.

The total marketplace for news isn't declining - it's just changing shape. If circulation was relative to influence - hardly anyone would know what the Guardian was saying.

LordLucan said:

Hello everyone, first post here. Does anyone think the ever-increasing decline of print media could have an impact on the Election? For instance, the Sun's circulation is down about a third since the last election, and whilst you wouldn't necessarily overplay that, that paper probably has more influence on the type of voter who wants guidance than most (see Kinnock and the lightbulb front page/"it's The Sun wot won it")

RobD

LordLucan said:

Hello everyone, first post here. Does anyone think the ever-increasing decline of print media could have an impact on the Election? For instance, the Sun's circulation is down about a third since the last election, and whilst you wouldn't necessarily overplay that, that paper probably has more influence on the type of voter who wants guidance than most (see Kinnock and the lightbulb front page/"it's The Sun wot won it")

Welcome, just waiting for the user Shergar to join, and we'll have a full house.

RodCrosby

LordLucan said:

Hello everyone, first post here. Does anyone think the ever-increasing decline of print media could have an impact on the Election? For instance, the Sun's circulation is down about a third since the last election, and whilst you wouldn't necessarily overplay that, that paper probably has more influence on the type of voter who wants guidance than most (see Kinnock and the lightbulb front page/"it's The Sun wot won it")

I wondered about that too. Conclusion? People will make their mind up later than ever before...

Morris_Dancer

Welcome to pb.com, Lord Lucan.

Plato

LOL, if only John Stonehouse had been so smart.

RobD said:

LordLucan said:

Hello everyone, first post here. Does anyone think the ever-increasing decline of print media could have an impact on the Election? For instance, the Sun's circulation is down about a third since the last election, and whilst you wouldn't necessarily overplay that, that paper probably has more influence on the type of voter who wants guidance than most (see Kinnock and the lightbulb front page/"it's The Sun wot won it")

Welcome, just waiting for the user Shergar to join, and we'll have a full house.

RobD

isam said:

LordLucan said:

Hello everyone, first post here. Does anyone think the ever-increasing decline of print media could have an impact on the Election? For instance, the Sun's circulation is down about a third since the last election, and whilst you wouldn't necessarily overplay that, that paper probably has more influence on the type of voter who wants guidance than most (see Kinnock and the lightbulb front page/"it's The Sun wot won it")

Where the fuck have you been?

Charming, unless you two have a history?

MaxPB

LordLucan said:

Hello everyone, first post here. Does anyone think the ever-increasing decline of print media could have an impact on the Election? For instance, the Sun's circulation is down about a third since the last election, and whilst you wouldn't necessarily overplay that, that paper probably has more influence on the type of voter who wants guidance than most (see Kinnock and the lightbulb front page/"it's The Sun wot won it")

Is it true that you are known as Jungly Barry in India?

bigjohnowls

LordLucan said:

Hello everyone, first post here. Does anyone think the ever-increasing decline of print media could have an impact on the Election? For instance, the Sun's circulation is down about a third since the last election, and whilst you wouldn't necessarily overplay that, that paper probably has more influence on the type of voter who wants guidance than most (see Kinnock and the lightbulb front page/"it's The Sun wot won it")

Where you been hiding! Welcome to PB

Think potentially less influential but even more visceral than ever IMO

old_labour

Nicola Sturgeon live on BBC Parliament addressing the SNP conference.

Plato

For anyone too young to recall Mr Stonehouse, the original Reggie Perrin...

John Thomson Stonehouse (28 July 1925 – 14 April 1988) was a British Labour and Co-operative Party politician and junior minister under Harold Wilson. Stonehouse is perhaps best remembered for his unsuccessful attempt at faking his own death in 1974.

More than twenty years after his death, it was publicly revealed that he had been an agent for the communist Czechoslovak Socialist Republic military intelligence. In 1979 Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and top cabinet members learned from a Czech defector that Stonehouse had been a paid Czech spy since 1962. He had provided secrets about government plans as well as technical information about aircraft, and received about £5,000. He was already in prison for fraud and the government decided there was insufficient evidence to bring to trial, so no announcement or prosecution was made

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Stonehouse

Roger

Scotslass

"This week has been a stunning success for the SNP. Salmond has placed the at the centre of a campaign when they usually struggle to be relevant . This weekend Nicola will get huge coverage from their massive Conference and next week appears in the big debate. Here is a small prediction for you. The first poll will show the SNP lead extending in Scotland. Just as the local by elections yesterday indicated."

Most posters would be embarrassed to post something that looked like it had come unaltered from an SNP flysheet! I'm embarrassed for you!

Morris_Dancer

F1: bugger. Grosjean's been demoted two places due to a pit lane infringement [I've backed him to be top 6, so obviously this reduces his prospects of achieving that].

Mind you, he should be able to get past Ericsson fairly easily, and I do think he has a decent chance of achieving it (his Q1 time, the only section entirely dry, was very competitive).

RodCrosby

NYT article claims Lubitz was seeking treatment for eyesight problems.

bigjohnowls

Roger said:

Scotslass

"This week has been a stunning success for the SNP. Salmond has placed the at the centre of a campaign when they usually struggle to be relevant . This weekend Nicola will get huge coverage from their massive Conference and next week appears in the big debate. Here is a small prediction for you. The first poll will show the SNP lead extending in Scotland. Just as the local by elections yesterday indicated."

Most posters would be embarrassed to post something that looked like it had come unaltered from an SNP flysheet! I'm embarrassed for you!

Is the at pronounced VAT. Obviously its a form of headwear in Mr Dancer territory

Sunil_Prasannan

Afternoon, my fellow hypocritical, sneering PBers

hunchman

Roger said:

Scotslass

"This week has been a stunning success for the SNP. Salmond has placed the at the centre of a campaign when they usually struggle to be relevant . This weekend Nicola will get huge coverage from their massive Conference and next week appears in the big debate. Here is a small prediction for you. The first poll will show the SNP lead extending in Scotland. Just as the local by elections yesterday indicated."

Most posters would be embarrassed to post something that looked like it had come unaltered from an SNP flysheet! I'm embarrassed for you!

It's embarrassing that you don't comprehend the new realities of Scottish politics Woger

RobD

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Afternoon, my fellow hypocritical, sneering PBers

I'm a hypocritical, sneering PB Tory, I'll have you know.

ChrisSquire

Re: 'Even if LAB was to lose every single Scottish MP this would increase its target of gains from CON in England & Wales to just 21 seats.'

BY 21 seats.

Gadfly

In 2010 Easter fell one day earlier than it does this year, so it is possible to compare how the polls moved back then. The chart below shows the equivalent position to where we currently are as compared to 2010, and how the two main parties began to move apart in the days leading up to Easter, presumably as the campaigning commenced...

Roger

Hunchman!

I can't believe you've shown your face! Aren't enough of us selling 'The Big Issue' thanks to your advice! Have you come to gloat?

hunchman

Welcome Lord lucan! Where have you been for the past 41 years? !

RobbieBox

tlg86 said:

"Even if LAB was to lose every single Scottish MP this would increase its target of gains from CON in England & Wales to just 21 seats."

I think that should read by 21 seats.

It also depends on Labour not losing of those Scottish seats to the Tories, which could happen in a few places where there is a 3 or 4 way fight.

RobD

Also, since we are welcoming people, welcome back Chris!

hunchman

Roger said:

Hunchman!

I can't believe you've shown your face! Aren't enough of us selling 'The Big Issue' thanks to your advice! Have you come to gloat?

Am doing very nicely thank you. I don't recall your predictions on gold and the us dollar that I have alerted people to on here. And I'm still sticking to the great global sovereign debt crisis starting in October. Which will lay to waste nearly all the crazy spending commitments you'll hear over the next 6 weeks.

Great to hear Nicola sturgeon on house of Lords abolition. Not going to happen but at least they're right on that.

SunnyJim

Betting Post:

1550 Navan Sir Vinnie 125-1 ew (VC)

RobD

Gadfly said:

In 2010 Easter fell one day earlier than it does this year, so it is possible to compare how the polls moved back then. The chart below shows the equivalent position to where we currently are as compared to 2010, and how the two main parties began to move apart in the days leading up to Easter, presumably as the campaigning commenced...

Blue dawn imminent?

initforthemoney

Sunil_Prasannan said:

So I'm not the only vegetarian in the PB village?

i can confirm you aren't the sole vegetarian.

Roger

RC

"NYT article claims Lubitz was seeking treatment for eyesight problems."

Do you think Specsavers could be that tasteless?

Morris_Dancer

Welcome back, Mr. Hunchman.

hunchman

Thank you MD. Needed a rest to recharge my batteries for the next 6 weeks!

initforthemoney

Easterross said:

Speaking personally I wish one of my neighbours who take shoots across our farm would hurry up and kill some of the roe deer who are working their way through some of my rather splendid rose bushes.

i wish the local farmer had a less laissez faire attitude towards fencing. his sheep ate all of my vegetables last year.

hunchman

Very encouraging snp results in glenrothes and west Lothian this week. Precisely the places they need to be winning in order to cause the earthquake that is coming in 40 days time.

MarkSenior

hunchman said:

Very encouraging snp results in glenrothes and west Lothian this week. Precisely the places they need to be winning in order to cause the earthquake that is coming in 40 days time.

And yet they still polled worse in Glenrothes than they did in the 2007 locals

Sunil_Prasannan

initforthemoney said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

So I'm not the only vegetarian in the PB village?

i can confirm you aren't the sole vegetarian.

That's good to know!

Sunil_Prasannan

Just Opinium and Sunday YG left to report, but this week so far, Lab and Con lead each other in ELBOW by 0.0%!!

isam

Peter Singer, looking a bit like a skinnier OGH to me, discussing the ethics of eating meat, w Richard Dawkins

http://youtu.be/ti-WcnqUwLM

NickPalmer

Welcome aboard, Lucan. Yes, I think we're all assuming the dead tree press will be less influential this time. Of course, lots of people read the Mail online, but it's probably fair to say they don't read it for the deep political discussions.

We had a street stand this morning, and literally a queue of people wanting to talk to me, all but one of whom had something to raise arising out of the DC/EM debate. I'm sure it's true that the audience was mostly into politics already and the impact on VI will be limited, but it's certainly caught the attention of those.

hunchman

MarkSenior said:

hunchman said:

Very encouraging snp results in glenrothes and west Lothian this week. Precisely the places they need to be winning in order to cause the earthquake that is coming in 40 days time.

And yet they still polled worse in Glenrothes than they did in the 2007 locals

6 local snp councillors there now to labour's 5 and I see lindsay Roy didn't have the confidence to put his head on the chopping block in 40 days time

Danny565

Tempting fate, but I wouldn't be surprised if Ed gets a mini-bounce in the polls tonight.

Scott_P

@TheScotsman: Tories portray Ed Miliband and Alex Salmond as Laurel and Hardy in van campaign http://t.co/0FZHeP3Vto http://t.co/LQvXiRfxEX

SimonStClare

Welcome Lord Lucan – that’s quite an entrance you’ve just made.

MarkHopkins

NickPalmer said:

Welcome aboard, Lucan. Yes, I think we're all assuming the dead tree press will be less influential this time. Of course, lots of people read the Mail online, but it's probably fair to say they don't read it for the deep political discussions.

We had a street stand this morning, and literally a queue of people wanting to talk to me, all but one of whom had something to raise arising out of the DC/EM debate. I'm sure it's true that the audience was mostly into politics already and the impact on VI will be limited, but it's certainly caught the attention of those.

When you asked them if they had watched the debate, did any of them reply "Hell, yes" ?

GIN1138

RodCrosby said:

"Just 21 seats."

Or about an extra 1.5% swing, or an extra 3% lead!

I don't know why I bother, sometimes...

What are your models showing now Rod and what do you think has gone wrong with swingback this time?

MikeL

Gadfly said:

In 2010 Easter fell one day earlier than it does this year, so it is possible to compare how the polls moved back then. The chart below shows the equivalent position to where we currently are as compared to 2010, and how the two main parties began to move apart in the days leading up to Easter, presumably as the campaigning commenced...

Surely the final data point should be the GB result, not the UK result - as polls are GB, not UK.

isam

Daniel Hannan (@DanHannanMEP)
28/03/2015 10:46
After his Clacton piece, Parris frets that Tories aren't liked. Please, Matthew, stick to travel writing till 7 May. thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/co…

isam

Telegraph Politics (@TelePolitics)
28/03/2015 15:06
David Cameron heckled by long-serving Tory over failure to curb migration tgr.ph/1I3XAEN

isam

A few decent book reviews and he's touting himself as the next 007!!

sean thomas knox (@thomasknox)
28/03/2015 15:20
Essential qualities for Bond are that he's cruel, boozy, ruthless, sexually predatory and British. No reason a black man can't be all that

Gadfly

MikeL said:

Gadfly said:

In 2010 Easter fell one day earlier than it does this year, so it is possible to compare how the polls moved back then. The chart below shows the equivalent position to where we currently are as compared to 2010, and how the two main parties began to move apart in the days leading up to Easter, presumably as the campaigning commenced...

Surely the final data point should be the GB result, not the UK result - as polls are GB, not UK.

You are correct, and this is something Mike pointed out back in 2010. I couldn't readily find the chart that preceded the one I used, and didn't think it mattered for this particular purpose.

isam

My names Sam and i am a tweetaholic

Michael Heaver (@Michael_Heaver)
28/03/2015 15:46
Tories shouting "UKIP scum" and "racists" over a mega phone in Thurrock today #NastyParty

scotslass

Scott P , Bigjowls and Roger

The issue is whether the SNP have had a good week or not . I say they have for the reasons stated. You lot say not because you fear/ hate Salmond and don't rate Nicola. You are right to fear Salmond and wrong to under rate Nicola.

Anyway the first real poll will tell us whether I am right or you are. Now you three gents should put up or ..,,,,,

MikeSmithson

MikeL said:

Gadfly said:

In 2010 Easter fell one day earlier than it does this year, so it is possible to compare how the polls moved back then. The chart below shows the equivalent position to where we currently are as compared to 2010, and how the two main parties began to move apart in the days leading up to Easter, presumably as the campaigning commenced...

Surely the final data point should be the GB result, not the UK result - as polls are GB, not UK.

Absolutely. National polls are all GB only - (no Northern Ireland) and all polling comparisons should be with those figures. CON 37, LAB 29.7, LD 23.6

MikeSmithson

scotslass said:

Scott P , Bigjowls and Roger

The issue is whether the SNP have had a good week or not . I say they have for the reasons stated. You lot say not because you fear/ hate Salmond and don't rate Nicola. You are right to fear Salmond and wrong to under rate Nicola.

Anyway the first real poll will tell us whether I am right or you are. Now you three gents should put up or ..,,,,,

Have you ever seen any SNP supporter admit that anything is ever less than perfect for the party. All weeks are always good which means you can always discount what they say.

MikeL

Gadfly said:

MikeL said:

Gadfly said:

In 2010 Easter fell one day earlier than it does this year, so it is possible to compare how the polls moved back then. The chart below shows the equivalent position to where we currently are as compared to 2010, and how the two main parties began to move apart in the days leading up to Easter, presumably as the campaigning commenced...

Surely the final data point should be the GB result, not the UK result - as polls are GB, not UK.

You are correct, and this is something Mike pointed out back in 2010. I couldn't readily find the chart that preceded the one I used, and didn't think it mattered for this particular purpose.

Thanks - sure - no problem.

saddened

scotslass said:

Scott P , Bigjowls and Roger

The issue is whether the SNP have had a good week or not . I say they have for the reasons stated. You lot say not because you fear/ hate Salmond and don't rate Nicola. You are right to fear Salmond and wrong to under rate Nicola.

Anyway the first real poll will tell us whether I am right or you are. Now you three gents should put up or ..,,,,,

The only reason I hate Salmond, is that he was too inept to actually win the yes vote. If he had spent more time developing a decent set of answers to the financial issues rather than mincing around in his shortbread trews, he may have just squeaked it. Unfortunately he didn't.

Greenwich_Floater

Perhaps tonight's polling will see one of the main parties hit 37% (or higher) for the first time in a few months.

With all the media focus on the Paxman debates, perhaps the middle will get squeezed further.

Couldn't begin to guess which party it would be - Labour probably slight favorites.

Carnyx

Plato said:

OT Quick culinary question. I'm very fond of leeks - in every sort of dish. Would I be better off using spring onions instead in hoisin or chow mien recipes? I don't like them to become overly sweet and finding it really hard to find a balance when using onions - but leeks don't quite work either.

Spring onions might well work better - in fact when we have a stir fry we often use them rather than onions. But we don't cook them long enough to caramelise I suppose.

Shallots might be worth experimenting with - milder flavour than onions.

OldKingCole

Just driven through part of Castle Point. Not a poster to be seen, or, so far as I could see from the road anyone canvassing the shopping centre we drove through.
May be just bit of the town, of course!

MP_SE

isam said:

My names Sam and i am a tweetaholic

Michael Heaver (@Michael_Heaver)
28/03/2015 15:46
Tories shouting "UKIP scum" and "racists" over a mega phone in Thurrock today #NastyParty

Labour and Tories making racist remarks about Tim Aker:

http://nopenothope.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/not-just-tories-with-dog-whistle-racism.html

Do the Tories in Thurrock seriously think anyone is impressed with shouting abuse from a bus.

Plato

Thnx - will try it next week

Carnyx said:

Plato said:

OT Quick culinary question. I'm very fond of leeks - in every sort of dish. Would I be better off using spring onions instead in hoisin or chow mien recipes? I don't like them to become overly sweet and finding it really hard to find a balance when using onions - but leeks don't quite work either.

Spring onions might well work better - in fact when we have a stir fry we often use them rather than onions. But we don't cook them long enough to caramelise I suppose.

Shallots might be worth experimenting with - milder flavour than onions.

notme

MikeSmithson said:

scotslass said:

Scott P , Bigjowls and Roger

The issue is whether the SNP have had a good week or not . I say they have for the reasons stated. You lot say not because you fear/ hate Salmond and don't rate Nicola. You are right to fear Salmond and wrong to under rate Nicola.

Anyway the first real poll will tell us whether I am right or you are. Now you three gents should put up or ..,,,,,

Have you ever seen any SNP supporter admit that anything is ever less than perfect for the party. All weeks are always good which means you can always discount what they say.

Have you noticed that about canvassing? Everyone always seems to have had "great feedback on the doorstep, positive campaign" "Fantastic reception to message in little bigholme" "lots of enthusiastic responses tonight".

Im a seasoned canvasser. You do now and then get really great nights, sometimes in unexpected areas. But you also get some really awful ones.

"voter swore at me tonight for walking on grass, put her down as a probable". "knuckles bleeding from dog grabbing leaflet from letterbox", "told to F off three times and threatened with a smack in the mouth twice this evening", "im having my tea and i wouldnt vote you F-ing lot if my arse was on fire, do one, and you better close the F-ing gate"

No never see that in a tweet...

Gadfly

Carnyx said:

Plato said:

OT Quick culinary question. I'm very fond of leeks - in every sort of dish. Would I be better off using spring onions instead in hoisin or chow mien recipes? I don't like them to become overly sweet and finding it really hard to find a balance when using onions - but leeks don't quite work either.

Spring onions might well work better - in fact when we have a stir fry we often use them rather than onions. But we don't cook them long enough to caramelise I suppose.

Shallots might be worth experimenting with - milder flavour than onions.

If you have room, then put in a few onion sets (currently available) then use the resulting onions whilst they are green during the summer. Think of these as huge spring onions and include the tops within your recipes. You can buy such half-grown onions on the continent, but I've never seen them for sale in the UK.

scotslass

Mike

But you hope that every week will be bad for the SNP and there hasn't been one for a while! I think they have had a good week because they have stayed relevant to a UK election. I think that the first real poll will show that. Now what do you think?

Dair

scotslass said:

ScoT P

This week has been a stunning success for the SNP. Salmond has placed the at the centre of a campaign when they usually struggle to be relevant . This weekend Nicola will get huge coverage from their massive Conference and next week appears in the big debate. Here is a small prediction for you. The first poll will show the SNP lead extending in Scotland. Just as the local by elections yesterday indicated.

The good cop, bad cop routine has developed really well. Today Nicola came riding to the rescue for the rest of the UK, the only person to protect them from the Big Bad Salmond and deliver populist policy which will go down very well in the rUK.

Carnyx

MikeSmithson said:

scotslass said:

Scott P , Bigjowls and Roger

The issue is whether the SNP have had a good week or not . I say they have for the reasons stated. You lot say not because you fear/ hate Salmond and don't rate Nicola. You are right to fear Salmond and wrong to under rate Nicola.

Anyway the first real poll will tell us whether I am right or you are. Now you three gents should put up or ..,,,,,

Have you ever seen any SNP supporter admit that anything is ever less than perfect for the party. All weeks are always good which means you can always discount what they say.

Well, look at the polling. 45% of the vote?

MarkSenior said:

hunchman said:

Very encouraging snp results in glenrothes and west Lothian this week. Precisely the places they need to be winning in order to cause the earthquake that is coming in 40 days time.

And yet they still polled worse in Glenrothes than they did in the 2007 locals

Really? I thought they did better than 2007 - about 3% on one calculation. ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/

But it is tricky to compare by elections with full elections for those multimember wards in Scottish local gmt.

MP_SE

notme said:

MikeSmithson said:

scotslass said:

Scott P , Bigjowls and Roger

The issue is whether the SNP have had a good week or not . I say they have for the reasons stated. You lot say not because you fear/ hate Salmond and don't rate Nicola. You are right to fear Salmond and wrong to under rate Nicola.

Anyway the first real poll will tell us whether I am right or you are. Now you three gents should put up or ..,,,,,

Have you ever seen any SNP supporter admit that anything is ever less than perfect for the party. All weeks are always good which means you can always discount what they say.

Have you noticed that about canvassing? Everyone always seems to have had "great feedback on the doorstep, positive campaign" "Fantastic reception to message in little bigholme" "lots of enthusiastic responses tonight".

Im a seasoned canvasser. You do now and then get really great nights, sometimes in unexpected areas. But you also get some really awful ones.

"voter swore at me tonight for walking on grass, put her down as a probable". "knuckles bleeding from dog grabbing leaflet from letterbox", "told to F off three times and threatened with a smack in the mouth twice this evening", "im having my tea and i wouldnt vote you F-ing lot if my arse was on fire, do one, and you better close the F-ing gate"

No never see that in a tweet...

Which party were you canvassing for out of interest?

It is incredibly annoying seeing everyone on Twitter claiming they had an excellent result canvassing. Almost as annoying as activists spewing out a never ending stream of attacks on other parties and failing to promote their own party.

Danny565

Slightly OT, the Alliance MP Naomi Long has been hinting on Twitter that she strongly prefers Miliband to Cameron. Just one MP obviously, but if Parliament is as hung as it looks like then every MP vote will count!

Greenwich_Floater

Dair said:

scotslass said:

ScoT P

This week has been a stunning success for the SNP. Salmond has placed the at the centre of a campaign when they usually struggle to be relevant . This weekend Nicola will get huge coverage from their massive Conference and next week appears in the big debate. Here is a small prediction for you. The first poll will show the SNP lead extending in Scotland. Just as the local by elections yesterday indicated.

The good cop, bad cop routine has developed really well. Today Nicola came riding to the rescue for the rest of the UK, the only person to protect them from the Big Bad Salmond and deliver populist policy which will go down very well in the rUK.

Haha

I think most voters in rUK are absolutely horrified by Nicola's populist policies.

That's why the prospect of the SNP having a say, is the biggest weapon the tories have at the moment.

foxinsoxuk

Gadfly said:

In 2010 Easter fell one day earlier than it does this year, so it is possible to compare how the polls moved back then. The chart below shows the equivalent position to where we currently are as compared to 2010, and how the two main parties began to move apart in the days leading up to Easter, presumably as the campaigning commenced...

The striking thing about that chart is that the Cleggasm hardly affected voting at all. It was purely a polling phenomenon. The votes on the day were pretty much the same as when the campaign started.

Dair

hunchman said:

Roger said:

Hunchman!

I can't believe you've shown your face! Aren't enough of us selling 'The Big Issue' thanks to your advice! Have you come to gloat?

Am doing very nicely thank you. I don't recall your predictions on gold and the us dollar that I have alerted people to on here. And I'm still sticking to the great global sovereign debt crisis starting in October. Which will lay to waste nearly all the crazy spending commitments you'll hear over the next 6 weeks.

Great to hear Nicola sturgeon on house of Lords abolition. Not going to happen but at least they're right on that.

The Labour Party's position on the House of Lords, their contentment to use it as a retirement home for rejected politicians is the great disgrace of the Labour Movement. That they would reject the entire principles and ethos of their party so a few dozen party aparatchiks can benefit from this largesse should have signalled the death of their party when they first chose to accept seats in the Lords.

SquareRoot

MP_SE said:

notme said:

MikeSmithson said:

scotslass said:

Scott P , Bigjowls and Roger

The issue is whether the SNP have had a good week or not . I say they have for the reasons stated. You lot say not because you fear/ hate Salmond and don't rate Nicola. You are right to fear Salmond and wrong to under rate Nicola.

Anyway the first real poll will tell us whether I am right or you are. Now you three gents should put up or ..,,,,,

Have you ever seen any SNP supporter admit that anything is ever less than perfect for the party. All weeks are always good which means you can always discount what they say.

Have you noticed that about canvassing? Everyone always seems to have had "great feedback on the doorstep, positive campaign" "Fantastic reception to message in little bigholme" "lots of enthusiastic responses tonight".

Im a seasoned canvasser. You do now and then get really great nights, sometimes in unexpected areas. But you also get some really awful ones.

"voter swore at me tonight for walking on grass, put her down as a probable". "knuckles bleeding from dog grabbing leaflet from letterbox", "told to F off three times and threatened with a smack in the mouth twice this evening", "im having my tea and i wouldnt vote you F-ing lot if my arse was on fire, do one, and you better close the F-ing gate"

No never see that in a tweet...

Which party were you canvassing for out of interest?

It is incredibly annoying seeing everyone on Twitter claiming they had an excellent result canvassing. Almost as annoying as activists spewing out a never ending stream of attacks on other parties and failing to promote their own party.

Why is it so annoying. >?? If you are an MP you know what MP's do. they attack the opponents parties. Noone in Labour will be promoting or saying anything positive about ED unless forced to... not even on twitter !!

scotslass

Greenwich Floater

My English friends tell me that if the NATS stood down south they would vote for them in a second.

Danny565

foxinsoxuk said:

Gadfly said:

In 2010 Easter fell one day earlier than it does this year, so it is possible to compare how the polls moved back then. The chart below shows the equivalent position to where we currently are as compared to 2010, and how the two main parties began to move apart in the days leading up to Easter, presumably as the campaigning commenced...

The striking thing about that chart is that the Cleggasm hardly affected voting at all. It was purely a polling phenomenon. The votes on the day were pretty much the same as when the campaign started.

That's actually usually what happens. The election result usually reflects the poll results from a month or two before the election. They move around quite a lot during the campaign itself as people have knee-jerk reactions to the twists and turns of the media coverage, but when the day comes they settle back to their "natural" preference that they had before the hyperactive coverage started.

1992 is one of the exceptions to that, of course.

Theuniondivvie

MikeSmithson said:

All weeks are always good which means you can always discount what they say.

You mean like Danny Alexander saying that the LDs might gain seats in Scotland, or Clegg telling the remaining busload of SLD faithful that they're going to beat Salmond in Gordon?

I can almost smell SLD surge...(no Mark Oaten jokes please)

http://tinyurl.com/pe955xs

MP_SE

SquareRoot said:

MP_SE said:

notme said:

MikeSmithson said:

scotslass said:

Scott P , Bigjowls and Roger

The issue is whether the SNP have had a good week or not . I say they have for the reasons stated. You lot say not because you fear/ hate Salmond and don't rate Nicola. You are right to fear Salmond and wrong to under rate Nicola.

Anyway the first real poll will tell us whether I am right or you are. Now you three gents should put up or ..,,,,,

Have you ever seen any SNP supporter admit that anything is ever less than perfect for the party. All weeks are always good which means you can always discount what they say.

Have you noticed that about canvassing? Everyone always seems to have had "great feedback on the doorstep, positive campaign" "Fantastic reception to message in little bigholme" "lots of enthusiastic responses tonight".

Im a seasoned canvasser. You do now and then get really great nights, sometimes in unexpected areas. But you also get some really awful ones.

"voter swore at me tonight for walking on grass, put her down as a probable". "knuckles bleeding from dog grabbing leaflet from letterbox", "told to F off three times and threatened with a smack in the mouth twice this evening", "im having my tea and i wouldnt vote you F-ing lot if my arse was on fire, do one, and you better close the F-ing gate"

No never see that in a tweet...

Which party were you canvassing for out of interest?

It is incredibly annoying seeing everyone on Twitter claiming they had an excellent result canvassing. Almost as annoying as activists spewing out a never ending stream of attacks on other parties and failing to promote their own party.

Why is it so annoying. >?? If you are an MP you know what MP's do. they attack the opponents parties. Noone in Labour will be promoting or saying anything positive about ED unless forced to... not even on twitter !!

But they can promote their policies. If I looked up a local councillor on Twitter to see what their opinions were on various local issues and all I can find was is a never ending attack on a rival party I would not be any more likely to vote for them.

Dair

MikeSmithson said:

scotslass said:

Scott P , Bigjowls and Roger

The issue is whether the SNP have had a good week or not . I say they have for the reasons stated. You lot say not because you fear/ hate Salmond and don't rate Nicola. You are right to fear Salmond and wrong to under rate Nicola.

Anyway the first real poll will tell us whether I am right or you are. Now you three gents should put up or ..,,,,,

Have you ever seen any SNP supporter admit that anything is ever less than perfect for the party. All weeks are always good which means you can always discount what they say.

Or alternatively the SNP offer a very different type of political party more akin to those of the continental north European democracies than the tribal hatred at the heart of Westminster. A party that can actually include policy debates in their pre-election conference with at least one very contentious issue up for discussion.

The positivity is because the SNP are genuinely a better party than the nasty, corrupt Tories, Labour, Lib Dems and UKIP.

Gadfly

foxinsoxuk said:

Gadfly said:

In 2010 Easter fell one day earlier than it does this year, so it is possible to compare how the polls moved back then. The chart below shows the equivalent position to where we currently are as compared to 2010, and how the two main parties began to move apart in the days leading up to Easter, presumably as the campaigning commenced...

The striking thing about that chart is that the Cleggasm hardly affected voting at all. It was purely a polling phenomenon. The votes on the day were pretty much the same as when the campaign started.

The chart is slightly erroneous in that my final ticks were UK figures, whereas the polls were GB figures. These were not massively different though, with Con GB 37 v UK 36.1, Lab GB 29.7 v UK 29, LD GB 23.6 v UK23.

Plato

LOLOLOLOLOL

scotslass said:

Greenwich Floater

My English friends tell me that if the NATS stood down south they would vote for them in a second.

MarkHopkins

SeanT said:

This may not ever happen again, and will have changed in an hour or two, but, right this minute: Ijstweeling is THE best-selling ebook in the Netherlands.

http://www.bol.com/nl/m/nederlandse-boeken/nederlandse-ebooks/N/8299+8293+7419/index.html?promo=nederlandse-ebooks_jumpstation_nederlandse-ebooks_B1_nederlandse-ebooks__

A couple of days ago I was in a small town library, so I casually asked if they had The Ice Twins.

No, it was being borrowed. I could join the waiting list - but there were 17 people ahead of me...

Scott_P

@MrHarryCole: Top leak to @Lesreidpolitics regarding the Beales/Robinson cluster http://t.co/yyiRzyd1j0

Dair

Greenwich_Floater said:

Dair said:

scotslass said:

ScoT P

This week has been a stunning success for the SNP. Salmond has placed the at the centre of a campaign when they usually struggle to be relevant . This weekend Nicola will get huge coverage from their massive Conference and next week appears in the big debate. Here is a small prediction for you. The first poll will show the SNP lead extending in Scotland. Just as the local by elections yesterday indicated.

The good cop, bad cop routine has developed really well. Today Nicola came riding to the rescue for the rest of the UK, the only person to protect them from the Big Bad Salmond and deliver populist policy which will go down very well in the rUK.

Haha

I think most voters in rUK are absolutely horrified by Nicola's populist policies.

That's why the prospect of the SNP having a say, is the biggest weapon the tories have at the moment.

And the continual bashing out of that message is working SO well for the Tories. Their vote share is just soaring the more they come up with comedy posters attacking the wrong target.

SquareRoot

MP_SE said:

SquareRoot said:

MP_SE said:

notme said:

MikeSmithson said:

scotslass said:

Scott P , Bigjowls and Roger

The issue is whether the SNP have had a good week or not . I say they have for the reasons stated. You lot say not because you fear/ hate Salmond and don't rate Nicola. You are right to fear Salmond and wrong to under rate Nicola.

Anyway the first real poll will tell us whether I am right or you are. Now you three gents should put up or ..,,,,,

Have you ever seen any SNP supporter admit that anything is ever less than perfect for the party. All weeks are always good which means you can always discount what they say.

Have you noticed that about canvassing? Everyone always seems to have had "great feedback on the doorstep, positive campaign" "Fantastic reception to message in little bigholme" "lots of enthusiastic responses tonight".

Im a seasoned canvasser. You do now and then get really great nights, sometimes in unexpected areas. But you also get some really awful ones.

"voter swore at me tonight for walking on grass, put her down as a probable". "knuckles bleeding from dog grabbing leaflet from letterbox", "told to F off three times and threatened with a smack in the mouth twice this evening", "im having my tea and i wouldnt vote you F-ing lot if my arse was on fire, do one, and you better close the F-ing gate"

No never see that in a tweet...

Which party were you canvassing for out of interest?

It is incredibly annoying seeing everyone on Twitter claiming they had an excellent result canvassing. Almost as annoying as activists spewing out a never ending stream of attacks on other parties and failing to promote their own party.

Why is it so annoying. >?? If you are an MP you know what MP's do. they attack the opponents parties. Noone in Labour will be promoting or saying anything positive about ED unless forced to... not even on twitter !!

But they can promote their policies. If I looked up a local councillor on Twitter to see what their opinions were on various local issues and all I can find was is a never ending attack on a rival party I would not be any more likely to vote for them.

I guess you were looking up what they supported so you could attack them in a never ending stream of tweets!!1

Philip_Thompson

Danny565 said:

Slightly OT, the Alliance MP Naomi Long has been hinting on Twitter that she strongly prefers Miliband to Cameron. Just one MP obviously, but if Parliament is as hung as it looks like then every MP vote will count!

Isn't she at high risk of losing her seat to the DUP?

foxinsoxuk

scotslass said:

Greenwich Floater

My English friends tell me that if the NATS stood down south they would vote for them in a second.

True enough. Quite a lot of English people are keen on Scottish independence.

Though I think (like the Scots) most English would vote for continued Union.

Dair

Theuniondivvie said:

MikeSmithson said:

All weeks are always good which means you can always discount what they say.

You mean like Danny Alexander saying that the LDs might gain seats in Scotland, or Clegg telling the remaining busload of SLD faithful that they're going to beat Salmond in Gordon?

I can almost smell SLD surge...(no Mark Oaten jokes please)

http://tinyurl.com/pe955xs

That picture. So sad. So pathetic. Had me in stitches. Oh poor Danny, for a brief moment I felt sorry for him. Just before the laughter had me nearly spraying coke over my keyboard.

scotslass

Guys

I gave a reason for why I think it was a great week for the NATS. Salmond put them front and centre of the UK election. From their perspective that makes it a great week. I think the first real poll will bear me out. Surprisingly despite the macho male responses no-one has taken that point on!

Scott_P

scotslass said:

Salmond put them front and centre of the UK election.

And Nicola has spent all week trying to recover...

SimonStClare

Is that a typical macho male response from you Plato?

Plato said:

LOLOLOLOLOL

scotslass said:

Greenwich Floater

My English friends tell me that if the NATS stood down south they would vote for them in a second.

MP_SE

SquareRoot said:

MP_SE said:

SquareRoot said:

MP_SE said:

notme said:

MikeSmithson said:

scotslass said:

Scott P , Bigjowls and Roger

The issue is whether the SNP have had a good week or not . I say they have for the reasons stated. You lot say not because you fear/ hate Salmond and don't rate Nicola. You are right to fear Salmond and wrong to under rate Nicola.

Anyway the first real poll will tell us whether I am right or you are. Now you three gents should put up or ..,,,,,

Have you ever seen any SNP supporter admit that anything is ever less than perfect for the party. All weeks are always good which means you can always discount what they say.

Have you noticed that about canvassing? Everyone always seems to have had "great feedback on the doorstep, positive campaign" "Fantastic reception to message in little bigholme" "lots of enthusiastic responses tonight".

Im a seasoned canvasser. You do now and then get really great nights, sometimes in unexpected areas. But you also get some really awful ones.

"voter swore at me tonight for walking on grass, put her down as a probable". "knuckles bleeding from dog grabbing leaflet from letterbox", "told to F off three times and threatened with a smack in the mouth twice this evening", "im having my tea and i wouldnt vote you F-ing lot if my arse was on fire, do one, and you better close the F-ing gate"

No never see that in a tweet...

Which party were you canvassing for out of interest?

It is incredibly annoying seeing everyone on Twitter claiming they had an excellent result canvassing. Almost as annoying as activists spewing out a never ending stream of attacks on other parties and failing to promote their own party.

Why is it so annoying. >?? If you are an MP you know what MP's do. they attack the opponents parties. Noone in Labour will be promoting or saying anything positive about ED unless forced to... not even on twitter !!

But they can promote their policies. If I looked up a local councillor on Twitter to see what their opinions were on various local issues and all I can find was is a never ending attack on a rival party I would not be any more likely to vote for them.

I guess you were looking up what they supported so you could attack them in a never ending stream of tweets!!1

I don't have a Twitter account You can learn a lot about someone on there though.

Positive campaigning > Negative campaigning

rcs1000

SeanT said:

This may not ever happen again, and will have changed in an hour or two, but, right this minute: Ijstweeling is THE best-selling ebook in the Netherlands.

http://www.bol.com/nl/m/nederlandse-boeken/nederlandse-ebooks/N/8299+8293+7419/index.html?promo=nederlandse-ebooks_jumpstation_nederlandse-ebooks_B1_nederlandse-ebooks__

Goodness me, you're outselling Hoe absorberend is uw keuken roll?

Well done!

Plato

Sure is, lover!

SimonStClare said:

Is that a typical macho male response from you Plato?

Plato said:

LOLOLOLOLOL

scotslass said:

Greenwich Floater

My English friends tell me that if the NATS stood down south they would vote for them in a second.