politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Given Dave’s more popular than CON his announcement should
Comments
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Chris Leslie apparently selling space in the manifesto to hedge fund donors.NickPalmer said:
My Chris? Come again?TCPoliticalBetting said:
These Conservative errors have kept your Chris and the Lib Dems out of the BBC headlines.NickPalmer said:Meanwhile, the ferrets in a rather small sack get under way:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/emilyashton/tim-farron-vince-cable
(The BBC dominates 60%+ of the broadcasting media)
Or something like that
[Dispatches last night]0 -
So George takes the credit for Aldi and an oil glut. Oh well.Scott_P said:@ToryTreasury: Inflation is 0.0%. @Ed_Miliband 's cost of living campaign has, literally, come to nought
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Tell me about it. When the South African chap messed up the run out earlier, I thought, the chokers are back.TGOHF said:
Those with a wad on NZ to win the trophy have run out of fingernailsJackW said:NZ require 29 off 3 overs to beat SA and reach the cricket world cup final - great match.
You just know this is going to end in a tie, and the Saffers are out.0 -
So what you mean is that Labour are working their asses off selling their main message, while Cameron and crowd sit around chillaxing and batting aside the odd bit of nonsense about the debates (while getting exactly the debates they want)SMukesh said:
Labour`s campaign is focussing on their priorities-NHS and others.Alanbrooke said:
ROFL yes because labour's campaign priorities are going so well.SMukesh said:The main effect is another 3 days lost talking about BS when it could be better spent on Con`s campaign priorities.
How many gains in Scotland do you see ?
Con`s campaign so far has been to defend Cameron from his cowardice about the debates and now his stupidity of talking about successors before an election campaign.
... and you are still tied in the polls ?
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Shouldn't that be ferrets in the back of a mini?NickPalmer said:Meanwhile, the ferrets in a rather small sack get under way:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/emilyashton/tim-farron-vince-cable0 -
Most ungeneorus antifrank. Who has been pampered more than gay, metroplitan high rate tax payers - and they won't even vote for him.antifrank said:
Stoking inflation would have been a good thing. It would have been a way of distributing some of the pain more evenly between age groups, given all the pampering pensioners have had.TheScreamingEagles said:I remember reading on PB a few years ago, that Osborne was stoking inflation....
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.Alanbrooke said:
No in my world it will be a hung Parlt, cons most votes most seats. labouites won't be arsed to turn out for Ed.SMukesh said:
Ok.I bet in your world,swingback is happening and Con has increased it`s lead to 7 points over the last 3 weeks...Alanbrooke said:
In your world.SMukesh said:
Labour`s campaign is focussing on their priorities-NHS and others.Alanbrooke said:
ROFL yes because labour's campaign priorities are going so well.SMukesh said:The main effect is another 3 days lost talking about BS when it could be better spent on Con`s campaign priorities.
How many gains in Scotland do you see ?
Con`s campaign so far has been to defend Cameron from his cowardice about the debates and now his stupidity of talking about successors before an election campaign.
meanwhile elsewhere......
Meanwhile...
Sunil`s ELBOW will show a Lab lead today.Con most votes,most seats is based on swingback happening.Over the last 3 weeks what`s happened is the reverse.
I welcome you to the real world mate.
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rottenborough,
You could make this argument for any conflict of interest for someone in a skilled profession. The question is not whether she is capable. The question is whether she will be interviewing the economics spokesman for different parties fairly, given that she has a romantic history with one of them. At a minimum, the public have a right to know whether there is an existing personal relationship there. The Daily Mail article that was linked to also mentioned she was a tutorial partner with Yvette Cooper, so that is three major Labour figures she had a conflict of interest with.
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That will do for meTheScreamingEagles said:
Tell me about it. When the South African chap messed up the run out earlier, I thought, the chokers are back.TGOHF said:
Those with a wad on NZ to win the trophy have run out of fingernailsJackW said:NZ require 29 off 3 overs to beat SA and reach the cricket world cup final - great match.
You just know this is going to end in a tie, and the Saffers are out.
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I have to say, I did wonder the same thing. But Cam was interviewed at the weekend, over sunday lunch I believe, so would he have known about the Dudley disaster at that point?Pulpstar said:Morning news was all Dave, Dave , Dave and then some Argy bargy near the Falklands ! Tory heaven !
Definitely better for Dave than the Dudley North stuff that was running last evening.0 -
Now NZ require 23 from 2 overs.0
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Balls and Miliband as sons of Gordon should condemn this 0 % increase in the cost of living.TGOHF said:Inflation = 0.0%
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They only need 22 from 2 to qualify for the final.JackW said:Now NZ require 23 from 2 overs.
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well we'll see, I've been on con most votes most seats for ther last 2 years. Ed just doesn't reach the parts other politicans can reach.SMukesh said:
.Alanbrooke said:
No in my world it will be a hung Parlt, cons most votes most seats. labouites won't be arsed to turn out for Ed.SMukesh said:
Ok.I bet in your world,swingback is happening and Con has increased it`s lead to 7 points over the last 3 weeks...Alanbrooke said:
In your world.SMukesh said:
Labour`s campaign is focussing on their priorities-NHS and others.Alanbrooke said:
ROFL yes because labour's campaign priorities are going so well.SMukesh said:The main effect is another 3 days lost talking about BS when it could be better spent on Con`s campaign priorities.
How many gains in Scotland do you see ?
Con`s campaign so far has been to defend Cameron from his cowardice about the debates and now his stupidity of talking about successors before an election campaign.
meanwhile elsewhere......
Meanwhile...
Sunil`s ELBOW will show a Lab lead today.Con most votes,most seats is based on swingback happening.Over the last 3 weeks what`s happened is the reverse.
I welcome you to the real world mate.
The only issue is does Dc get enough seats to go in to coalition 2.0 -
Struggled to get the rank full toss away !
I reckon the Saffers will hold out.0 -
I'd prefer my money on Saffers unfortunately - need 4 boundaries in 12 balls and several singles.TheScreamingEagles said:
They only need 22 from 2 to qualify for the final.JackW said:Now NZ require 23 from 2 overs.
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Chokers.0
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19 off 9 balls0
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Chooooooooooook0
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18 off 80
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With all the focus on David Cameron's honesty with repeated playing of his BBC interview and inflation at nought bet Channel 4 Dispatches bosses are 'livid' that their programme on donors has been swamped from the news0
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We`ll be happily tied.It`s Cons who need to be up to tie us on seats.And the NATS won`t deal with you,so your chances are receding everyday you don`t get a lead on votes.Indigo said:
So what you mean is that Labour are working their asses off selling their main message, while Cameron and crowd sit around chillaxing and batting aside the odd bit of nonsense about the debates (while getting exactly the debates they want)SMukesh said:
Labour`s campaign is focussing on their priorities-NHS and others.Alanbrooke said:
ROFL yes because labour's campaign priorities are going so well.SMukesh said:The main effect is another 3 days lost talking about BS when it could be better spent on Con`s campaign priorities.
How many gains in Scotland do you see ?
Con`s campaign so far has been to defend Cameron from his cowardice about the debates and now his stupidity of talking about successors before an election campaign.
... and you are still tied in the polls ?0 -
14 off 70
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There has been the same sort of response from the public on Radio London as well.Big_G_NorthWales said:David Cameron gives an honest answer to a question and the Westminster Village, BBC and labour go into overdrive with faux outrage while at the same time every public response on Radio 5 live this am complimented him on his honesty and in one classic response someone said 'the Westminster bubble should just float away'. You watch David Cameron's population rise on this.
Cameron gave an answer to straight forward question, the answer was broadly what had long been expected, but apparently this is some sort of tactical blunder or outrageous presumption. I for one would like more of this.0 -
14 from 70
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Chokers0
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NZ require 12 from the last over.0
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11 to qualify off 60
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Saffers choking now, running into each other in the field lol0
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Apropos all that cheerleading on NHS Cancer care yesterday
http://news.sky.com/story/1451236/uk-10-years-behind-europe-on-cancer-survivalMacmillan Cancer Support analysed the most recent results from global research into cancer survival and found many countries were doing better in the 1990s than the UK has managed to date.
Lucky BJO told us it is leading the world, otherwise we might think we are in trouble.
The charity's chief executive has urged political leaders to commit to tackling the "shameful" survival rates ahead of the General Election.0 -
11 from 60
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Steyn to bowl it though - not easy.bigjohnowls said:11 to qualify off 6
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10 for tie off 50
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New chokeland vs South Chokrica0
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Dave has the luck of the devil...rottenborough said:
I have to say, I did wonder the same thing. But Cam was interviewed at the weekend, over sunday lunch I believe, so would he have known about the Dudley disaster at that point?Pulpstar said:Morning news was all Dave, Dave , Dave and then some Argy bargy near the Falklands ! Tory heaven !
Definitely better for Dave than the Dudley North stuff that was running last evening.
If it wasn't for bad luck, Ed wood have none at all.0 -
Come on Dernbach, you can win this!0
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9 needed from 4 balls.0
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Looking like SA now 9 off 4 to qualify for NZ0
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Compared to EngchokerlandPulpstar said:New chokeland vs South Chokrica
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Who is favourite ?
9 off 4 is perhaps batting side, but 9 off 3 isn't...0 -
5 off 3 to qulify0
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Are England good enough to Choke?bigjohnowls said:
Compared to EngchokerlandPulpstar said:New chokeland vs South Chokrica
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5 off 3, reckon NZ make this.0
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4 from 2 to tie0
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Saffers still in this.0
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On topic, maybe Cameron just can't be arsed with it all any more. This would explain him coming up with a "renegotiation" plan that was obviously completely impractical not to mention very hard for any potential coalition partners to swallow, then hooking it around "if I am Prime Minister, this will happen". Instead he comes out as largest party, resigns to be good to his word, lets somebody else come up with a more sensible policy, goes down in history as Britain's most principled leader ever and finally gets to take some time off.0
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NZ win.0
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Get in.
South Africa always choke.0 -
we do but against Bangladeshphiliph said:
Are England good enough to Choke?bigjohnowls said:
Compared to EngchokerlandPulpstar said:New chokeland vs South Chokrica
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Boom boom0
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Boom !TheScreamingEagles said:Get in.
South Africa always choke.0 -
Yeeeeesss NZ make it.
Need Guptil to score 10 in final to overhaul Sanga should be enough to be top runscorer at 16/10 -
Matrix Switching ModelJackW said:BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 21st March Projection) :
Con 310 (+2) .. Lab 246 (-2) .. LibDem 32 (NC) .. SNP 36 (NC) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - TCTC
Warwickshire North - TCTC
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Con Hold
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Con Hold
Enfield North - TCTC from Likely Lab Gain
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 21 Mar - Enfield North moves from Likely Lab GAIN to TCTC
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
Bury North - Likely Lab Gain
Pudsey - Lab Gain
Broxtowe - Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Lab Gain
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Lab Gain
Watford - Likely Con Hold
Croydon Central - Likely Lab Gain
Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain
Cornwall North - Likely Con Gain
Great Yarmouth - Likely Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - TCTC
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
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South Africa in cricket world cups are like England's football team in penalty shoot outs0
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Or he has looked at recent PMs who have gone into a third term and thought 'Hmmm, that didn't go well, two terms is enough for any PM'edmundintokyo said:On topic, maybe Cameron just can't be arsed with it all any more. This would explain him coming up with a "renegotiation" plan that was obviously completely impractical not to mention very hard for any potential coalition partners to swallow, then hooking it around "if I am Prime Minister, this will happen". Instead he comes out as largest party, resigns to be good to his word, lets somebody else come up with a more sensible policy, goes down in history as Britain's most principled leader ever and finally gets to take some time off.
Recent history is on his side here, and it is very obvious how popularity of the leader has declined fast over extended time.
I think for both the electorate and himself it is a no brainer to point out that we will have had enough of each other by the end of a second term.0 -
Like their rugby team too.TheScreamingEagles said:South Africa in cricket world cups are like England's football team in penalty shoot outs
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"Not to be outdone, Nick Clegg announces that he won't be serving a first term as Prime Minister"0
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Is there anyone, anyone at all, who seriously thought Cameron would try to go on for a third term?0
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I thought the thinking at the Bank of England was to target nominal GDP growth of 5%*, and to be supremely relaxed about how that broke down between inflation and real growth. So a few years ago we had inflation of 5% and zero growth, but that was fine because it's nominal GDP growth of 5%. Similarly, last year inflation was down, real GDP growth was up, so nominal GDP growth was still around 5%.antifrank said:
Stoking inflation would have been a good thing. It would have been a way of distributing some of the pain more evenly between age groups, given all the pampering pensioners have had.TheScreamingEagles said:I remember reading on PB a few years ago, that Osborne was stoking inflation....
Unless growth really accelerates this year it looks like we will have nominal GDP growth of about 3%, with zero inflation. That's why the Chief Economist at the Bank is talking about cutting interest rates. Nominal GDP growth is expected to be a lot lower than planned.
* I think this is because it's the level of nominal GDP growth that determines whether you are caught in a debt deflation trap.0 -
Thank you for that appreciation.Barnesian said:
Matrix Switching ModelJackW said:BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 21st March Projection) :
Con 310 (+2) .. Lab 246 (-2) .. LibDem 32 (NC) .. SNP 36 (NC) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - TCTC
Warwickshire North - TCTC
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Con Hold
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Con Hold
Enfield North - TCTC from Likely Lab Gain
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 21 Mar - Enfield North moves from Likely Lab GAIN to TCTC
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
Bury North - Likely Lab Gain
Pudsey - Lab Gain
Broxtowe - Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Lab Gain
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Lab Gain
Watford - Likely Con Hold
Croydon Central - Likely Lab Gain
Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain
Cornwall North - Likely Con Gain
Great Yarmouth - Likely Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - TCTC
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
However I feel your Labour "Gain" considerations are somewhat like England winning the Cricket World Cup - an utter fantasy with Ed Miliband failing even to get out of the Group Stage.
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Watching the TV interview yesterday,Cameron keeps repeating
`My health is OK`.
Bizarre.0 -
No, but it is an outrage or blunder that he has said what we all expected him to say.Richard_Nabavi said:Is there anyone, anyone at all, who seriously thought Cameron would try to go on for a third term?
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Moi.Richard_Nabavi said:Is there anyone, anyone at all, who seriously thought Cameron would try to go on for a third term?
I thought there was a prospect of Cameron winning a third election in 2020 and then departing after a couple of years just as Blair did.
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"You only have to look at the mass of Dave-centred glossy literature being pushed through letter boxes in the key marginals at the moment to realise how important Cameron is to the campaign."
NE Derbyshire is not a marginal to my mind, but I know it is part of the 40:40 strategy.
Not a mention of Dave on my doorstep literature.0 -
Dave is doing a repeat of what Jim Callaghan did in 1979 and what Tony Blair did in 2005 saying they intend to retire asPM at the end of the subsequent parliament. I do not see this as a surprise.
The question is if he remains PM after 7 May, will he in fact retire in 2019 or early 2020 and we have a new PM then when Conservative members elect him/her or does a new Conservative leader be elected early 2020 and Dave remains PM till election and then retires as PM ( and probably but not necessarily as MP also)? Strangely I do not rule out the second option as after all this is what happened last time in both a small and a large country - I refer to Ireland and to India.
Of course Daves future plans may be affected by the possibility of a general election before 2020 which is possible despite Fixed Parliament. If Daves government lost a future vote ofconfidence, I do not think he could stand in ensuing GE and party would have to anoint a successor or he may realise in advance his government may fall and he may retire before the embarrassment of the loss of vote of confidence.0 -
Todays BJESUS
24.3.15 LAB 292 (291) CON 271(271) LD 30(30) UKIP 2(3) Others 55(55) (Ed is crap is PM)
Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 43 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
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Reading far too much into like ratings. If people wanted a Labour government why didn't/aren't they voting for one.
You just have to look at the LD numbers to realise the irrelevancy.0 -
Who knows, notwithstanding my "maybe he just can't be arsed with all this shit any more" theory, it's unusual for Prime Ministers to leave until they're either dragged out by their own party or booted out by the voters. Just thinking about British PMs in the last century or so, how many examples can we think of who went of their own accord?Richard_Nabavi said:Is there anyone, anyone at all, who seriously thought Cameron would try to go on for a third term?
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By 2020 he'll have been Conservative leader for 15 years (assuming he lasts that long, of course). Of modern Conservative leaders only Maggie lasted that long, and by common consent it was too long.JackW said:
Moi.Richard_Nabavi said:Is there anyone, anyone at all, who seriously thought Cameron would try to go on for a third term?
I thought there was a prospect of Cameron winning a third election in 2020 and then departing after a couple of years just as Blair did.
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Good morning, everyone.
Slightly surprised by Cameron's announcement. Only relevant really if he wins (or the Miliband-led government is very unstable).0 -
I'd venture to suggest that Maggie and Dave are different characters and certainly with Cameron there has never been the suggestion that he'd go "on and on".Richard_Nabavi said:
By 2020 he'll have been Conservative leader for 15 years (assuming he lasts that long, of course). Of modern Conservative leaders only Maggie lasted that long, and by common consent it was too long.JackW said:
Moi.Richard_Nabavi said:Is there anyone, anyone at all, who seriously thought Cameron would try to go on for a third term?
I thought there was a prospect of Cameron winning a third election in 2020 and then departing after a couple of years just as Blair did.
Also the rush of Conservative leaders in the early 2000's is unusual.
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Not many, and when they did it was usually health-related (Macmillan, Wilson).edmundintokyo said:Just thinking about British PMs in the last century or so, how many examples can we think of who went of their own accord?
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Labour Jesus's ARSE gap now 292-246 = 46bigjohnowls said:Todays BJESUS
24.3.15 LAB 292 (291) CON 271(271) LD 30(30) UKIP 2(3) Others 55(55) (Ed is crap is PM)
Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 43 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
To be tracked...0 -
I think you might be right!JackW said:I'd venture to suggest that Maggie and Dave are different characters
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Shredded Wheat will be glad of the free publicity, I'm sure.0
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crisis what crisisScott_P said:@ToryTreasury: Inflation is 0.0%. @Ed_Miliband 's cost of living campaign has, literally, come to nought
another miliband wheel fallen off his bandwagon0 -
We'll see, won't we? Let's compare early morning 8th May.JackW said:
Thank you for that appreciation.Barnesian said:
Matrix Switching ModelJackW said:BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 21st March Projection) :
Con 310 (+2) .. Lab 246 (-2) .. LibDem 32 (NC) .. SNP 36 (NC) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - TCTC
Warwickshire North - TCTC
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Con Hold
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Con Hold
Enfield North - TCTC from Likely Lab Gain
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 21 Mar - Enfield North moves from Likely Lab GAIN to TCTC
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
Bury North - Likely Lab Gain
Pudsey - Lab Gain
Broxtowe - Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Lab Gain
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Lab Gain
Watford - Likely Con Hold
Croydon Central - Likely Lab Gain
Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain
Cornwall North - Likely Con Gain
Great Yarmouth - Likely Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - TCTC
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
However I feel your Labour "Gain" considerations are somewhat like England winning the Cricket World Cup - an utter fantasy with Ed Miliband failing even to get out of the Group Stage.
My model doesn't do trends. It is based on current polling so it is a prediction of what would happen if there was an election today.0 -
Lucky BJO told us it is leading the world, otherwise we might think we are in trouble.Indigo said:Apropos all that cheerleading on NHS Cancer care yesterday
http://news.sky.com/story/1451236/uk-10-years-behind-europe-on-cancer-survivalMacmillan Cancer Support analysed the most recent results from global research into cancer survival and found many countries were doing better in the 1990s than the UK has managed to date.
The charity's chief executive has urged political leaders to commit to tackling the "shameful" survival rates ahead of the General Election.
Cancer is a ticking time bomb of public anger in the UK. It's such a total deception - look at that poor boy the NHS were basically set to watch die, brought back to health in Romania of all places. Little wonder they wanted the parents arrested and the boy dragged back to his death bed. People are ceasing to believe in terminal cancer, and nor should they.
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Deflation beckons, low oil prices have helped low inflation , nothing to do with government!
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Gabble!roserees64 said:Deflation beckons, low oil prices have helped low inflation , nothing to do with government!
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No, but given what we know about the British media, and their inability to deal with direct honesty without running around like headless chickens, he should probably have dissembled.Richard_Nabavi said:Is there anyone, anyone at all, who seriously thought Cameron would try to go on for a third term?
If the Conservatives are still in government after the election then the media will try to give us a four-year long Conservative leadership campaign. I think this reflects badly on the British media, rather than Cameron, but he would have done us all a favour to keep his intention not to serve a third term to himself.0 -
I am going to put my hand up for that. I really did not see how all that QE could not result in a run on the £ and consequential inflation. I clearly underestimated the deflationary effects of the reduction of Bank balance sheets and the reduction of consumer borrowing.TheScreamingEagles said:I remember reading on PB a few years ago, that Osborne was stoking inflation....
I also expected interest rates to be rising by now on the back of stronger growth. Once again I underestimated the deflationary pressures but at least I am consistently wrong!
The management of Osborne and Mark Carney over these last several years is arguably the finest we have seen over a sustained period for at least 50 years.0 -
@TelePolitics: Labour accused of using 'inappropriate' election poster image of potential 'victim of child abuse' http://t.co/IfQLDLVwPV0
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It's purely a hunch and I've spoken to no-one about it but I think this is a westminster village story. It may have dominated the news yesterday but the election is hardly gripping people anyway. It will make a difference to the internal dynamics of the Tory party if Cameron wins but I can't see it causing him problems at the election. How many PMs have served longer than 10 years consecutively? Only one in a very very long time. Alistair Campbell looked pained on Newsnight but then I think he knows Blair never really recovered his authority after his announcement and he doesn't like Cameron anyway. Easy to forget that Blair was already under pressure in 2004 and did it to reassert himself against the Brownites. If he went into an election pledging to serve a full term what authority would they have to remove him if they won?0
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I do not think that Margaret Thatcher lasted too long. The problem was that she was brought down by some of the disloyal types like Heseltine who had their own agendas. Had she stayed in office, she would never have signed Maastrict, for example, which already means she would have been better than her replacement.Richard_Nabavi said:
By 2020 he'll have been Conservative leader for 15 years (assuming he lasts that long, of course). Of modern Conservative leaders only Maggie lasted that long, and by common consent it was too long.JackW said:
Moi.Richard_Nabavi said:Is there anyone, anyone at all, who seriously thought Cameron would try to go on for a third term?
I thought there was a prospect of Cameron winning a third election in 2020 and then departing after a couple of years just as Blair did.0 -
Cancer is a ticking time bomb of public anger in the UK. It's such a total deception - look at that poor boy the NHS were basically set to watch die, brought back to health in Romania of all places. Little wonder they wanted the parents arrested and the boy dragged back to his death bed. People are ceasing to believe in terminal cancer, and nor should they.Luckyguy1983 said:
Lucky BJO told us it is leading the world, otherwise we might think we are in trouble.Indigo said:Apropos all that cheerleading on NHS Cancer care yesterday
http://news.sky.com/story/1451236/uk-10-years-behind-europe-on-cancer-survivalMacmillan Cancer Support analysed the most recent results from global research into cancer survival and found many countries were doing better in the 1990s than the UK has managed to date.
The charity's chief executive has urged political leaders to commit to tackling the "shameful" survival rates ahead of the General Election.
But it's the envy of the world!
Perhaps the dancing nurses at the Olympic opening ceremony, should have been replaced with whirling Undertakers.0 -
Has a government ever gone into an election with a better economic record than the Coalition?roserees64 said:Deflation beckons, low oil prices have helped low inflation , nothing to do with government!
Healthy growth, plummeting unemployment and zero inflation. It's a tragedy that people can't just vote Coalition.0 -
We should have had a "coupon" election like in 1918!MonikerDiCanio said:
Has a government ever gone into an election with a better economic record than the Coalition?roserees64 said:Deflation beckons, low oil prices have helped low inflation , nothing to do with government!
Healthy growth, plummeting unemployment and zero inflation. It's a tragedy that people can't just vote Coalition.
Viva La Coalition!
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Jennifer's tibia ?Scott_P said:@TelePolitics: Labour accused of using 'inappropriate' election poster image of potential 'victim of child abuse' http://t.co/IfQLDLVwPV
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I thought QE = future inflation when Brown initiated it and Osborne continued it.DavidL said:
I am going to put my hand up for that. I really did not see how all that QE could not result in a run on the £ and consequential inflation. I clearly underestimated the deflationary effects of the reduction of Bank balance sheets and the reduction of consumer borrowing.TheScreamingEagles said:I remember reading on PB a few years ago, that Osborne was stoking inflation....
I also expected interest rates to be rising by now on the back of stronger growth. Once again I underestimated the deflationary pressures but at least I am consistently wrong!
The management of Osborne and Mark Carney over these last several years is arguably the finest we have seen over a sustained period for at least 50 years.
One of the known knowns is that I know I know little about macro economics.0 -
I agree totally with that last statement, Osborne has worked a miracle and anyone that cannot see that is a partisan idiot who cares more about his party than the country.DavidL said:
I am going to put my hand up for that. I really did not see how all that QE could not result in a run on the £ and consequential inflation. I clearly underestimated the deflationary effects of the reduction of Bank balance sheets and the reduction of consumer borrowing.TheScreamingEagles said:I remember reading on PB a few years ago, that Osborne was stoking inflation....
I also expected interest rates to be rising by now on the back of stronger growth. Once again I underestimated the deflationary pressures but at least I am consistently wrong!
The management of Osborne and Mark Carney over these last several years is arguably the finest we have seen over a sustained period for at least 50 years.0 -
breaking: Airbus A320 goes down in the Southern French Alps. Believed en route from Barcelona to Dusseldorf, with 148 on board...0
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Is that a windup?Scott_P said:@TelePolitics: Labour accused of using 'inappropriate' election poster image of potential 'victim of child abuse' http://t.co/IfQLDLVwPV
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The difference in these favourability ratings between Labour and Tory Parties is 19 points.
Between Cameron and Miliband, just 9.
That relative differential doesn't suggest the presidential style campaign the Tories are haplessly indulging in is going ot have any effect.0 -
Ha!Scott_P said:
@ToryTreasury: Inflation is 0.0%. @Ed_Miliband 's cost of living campaign has, literally, come to nought
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The doctor in the article didn't think soDanSmith said:
Is that a windup?Scott_P said:@TelePolitics: Labour accused of using 'inappropriate' election poster image of potential 'victim of child abuse' http://t.co/IfQLDLVwPV
Prof Christopher Colton, emeritus consultant in orthopaedic and accident surgery, Nottingham University Hospital, said: “If that X-ray presented itself at a hospital, all the alarm bells would ring for possible non-accidental injury.
Labour were obviously just using a stock photo, but possibly a bit stupid not to have got a doctor to eyeball it first.
“There are absolutely clear two episodes of violence and possibly the bone bruise is a third." Prof Colton explained: “There is a fresh fracture in the middle of the leg, which is less than ten days old. Above the ankle there is a healed fracture consistent with a blow to the outer side of the leg, which is at least three to four weeks old.
“On the knee side of the main fracture, there is a slight white haze in the centre of the bone suggesting a healed bone bruise or a healed green stick fracture, about five to six weeks old.” Prof Colton said there are other possibilities, such as the child having brittle bone disease, however he said he is “90 per cent certain” it is non-accidental injury.0 -
With the benefit of hindsight I see that reduction of Bank balance sheets and the consequential reduction of credit in the economy was so massive that it needed QE on the scale it was to offset it.philiph said:
I thought QE = future inflation when Brown initiated it and Osborne continued it.DavidL said:
I am going to put my hand up for that. I really did not see how all that QE could not result in a run on the £ and consequential inflation. I clearly underestimated the deflationary effects of the reduction of Bank balance sheets and the reduction of consumer borrowing.TheScreamingEagles said:I remember reading on PB a few years ago, that Osborne was stoking inflation....
I also expected interest rates to be rising by now on the back of stronger growth. Once again I underestimated the deflationary pressures but at least I am consistently wrong!
The management of Osborne and Mark Carney over these last several years is arguably the finest we have seen over a sustained period for at least 50 years.
One of the known knowns is that I know I know little about macro economics.
But I did not see that at the time. It has been an incredible achievement and brilliantly calibrated.0
