TGOHF - sounds as though you got one of the national Labour letters. Both major parties (and perhaps others) are sending out lots of these to selected voters (based on canvassing and/or demographics), and unlike localised letters they can carry on up to polling day without any impact on local spending limits - it's a well-known gap in the spending limit rules (like billboards and central phone canvassing).
But it's puzzling how little you're getting. An average Broxtowe voter will by now have had 5-6 letters and leaflets (from different parties) and a couple of phone calls. What's happening in other close marginals?
We live in a nominal marginal (Warwick & Leamington) though it's not that marginal, despite being Labour until the last GE. We have had one Labour flyer through the door about a fortnight ago and a regular newsletter from the LibDems. There's been nothing else from anyone. Maybe all the parties have decided that the Tories are going to win here and resources are going elsewhere.
I make it 1200 Lab majority. Quite close. I'm surprised there is not more activity.
I think it's an easy enough Con Hold. Warwick and Leamington is Tony's Tories to the eyeballs.
Con had 3500 majority last time. If they lose 3-4000 to UKIP and Lab gain 4-5000 from LibDems as national polls suggest, Con lose.
Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) 24/03/2015 13:07 I'm delighted to announce our new candidate for #FolkestoneAndHythe – Harriet Yeo, former Labour NEC Chairman, now #UKIP member
This Harriet Yeo? Should take to UKIP like a duck to water!
"It is understood that Ms Yeo was removed as Labour group leader on Ashford Council last week after being accused of non-attendance at meetings and a failure to undertake casework, and was deselected last night as a candidate for the 2015 local elections."
The Murdoch press have always supported mass immigration, like all neo cons, they just make the occasional criticism to provide the illusion of debate and false reassurance. Limited hangout like the 1976 HSCA in the US.
Rachel ReevesVerified account @RachelReevesMP 'A @UKLabour govt will scrap the #BedroomTax & @scottishlabour will use the savings for £175 million Scotland Cares fund to tackle poverty'
What feeble lack of ambition. If they scrapped income tax, they could afford to eliminate poverty altogether and give out free owls to all.
Am I being thick or will restoring the spare room subsidy / cancelling the bedroom tax (delete as appropriate to your prejudices) lead to the govt having less money not more..?
UK Treasury = less money Scottish Government = more money
Am I being thick or will restoring the spare room subsidy / cancelling the bedroom tax (delete as appropriate to your prejudices) lead to the govt having less money not more..?
You are not being thick, but this was a Labour Shadow Minister speaking.
Scrapping the subsidy saved the UK government money. The SNP decided not to scrap it, so they carried on spending money. If Labour reinstates it, the SNP will carry on paying it as they have always done.
TGOHF - sounds as though you got one of the national Labour letters. Both major parties (and perhaps others) are sending out lots of these to selected voters (based on canvassing and/or demographics), and unlike localised letters they can carry on up to polling day without any impact on local spending limits - it's a well-known gap in the spending limit rules (like billboards and central phone canvassing).
But it's puzzling how little you're getting. An average Broxtowe voter will by now have had 5-6 letters and leaflets (from different parties) and a couple of phone calls. What's happening in other close marginals?
We live in a nominal marginal (Warwick & Leamington) though it's not that marginal, despite being Labour until the last GE. We have had one Labour flyer through the door about a fortnight ago and a regular newsletter from the LibDems. There's been nothing else from anyone. Maybe all the parties have decided that the Tories are going to win here and resources are going elsewhere.
I make it 1200 Lab majority. Quite close. I'm surprised there is not more activity.
I fear you may have called that wrong. It's possible if the student vote comes out and coalesces around Labour, but Leamington does not feel like a town which is about to kick out its MP. Things are going pretty well here.
TGOHF - sounds as though you got one of the national Labour letters. Both major parties (and perhaps others) are sending out lots of these to selected voters (based on canvassing and/or demographics), and unlike localised letters they can carry on up to polling day without any impact on local spending limits - it's a well-known gap in the spending limit rules (like billboards and central phone canvassing).
But it's puzzling how little you're getting. An average Broxtowe voter will by now have had 5-6 letters and leaflets (from different parties) and a couple of phone calls. What's happening in other close marginals?
We live in a nominal marginal (Warwick & Leamington) though it's not that marginal, despite being Labour until the last GE. We have had one Labour flyer through the door about a fortnight ago and a regular newsletter from the LibDems. There's been nothing else from anyone. Maybe all the parties have decided that the Tories are going to win here and resources are going elsewhere.
I make it 1200 Lab majority. Quite close. I'm surprised there is not more activity.
I think it's an easy enough Con Hold. Warwick and Leamington is Tony's Tories to the eyeballs.
Con had 3500 majority last time. If they lose 3-4000 to UKIP and Lab gain 4-5000 from LibDems as national polls suggest, Con lose.
Am I being thick or will restoring the spare room subsidy / cancelling the bedroom tax (delete as appropriate to your prejudices) lead to the govt having less money not more..?
You are not being thick, but this was a Labour Shadow Minister speaking.
Reminds me of Brown's claim in the TV debates last time that not putting up some tax (VAT was it?) as the tories were promising was "taking money out of the economy".
Scrapping the subsidy saved the UK government money. The SNP decided not to scrap it, so they carried on spending money. If Labour reinstates it, the SNP will carry on paying it as they have always done.
Net gain in Scotland = zero.
A bit like VAT...
No, the Scottish Government uses money from its discretionary budget to make payments (via DWP) to those who are still subject to the Removal of the Spare Room Subsidy. Benefits are not devolved. It is a discretionary payment from the Scottish government which would be freed for other purposes by the elimination of the Removal of the Spare Room Subsidy.
The Scottish budget would be unchanged. The Scottish Government, however, would have £45m in savings to spend in another area or to cut taxes.
TGOHF - sounds as though you got one of the national Labour letters. Both major parties (and perhaps others) are sending out lots of these to selected voters (based on canvassing and/or demographics), and unlike localised letters they can carry on up to polling day without any impact on local spending limits - it's a well-known gap in the spending limit rules (like billboards and central phone canvassing).
But it's puzzling how little you're getting. An average Broxtowe voter will by now have had 5-6 letters and leaflets (from different parties) and a couple of phone calls. What's happening in other close marginals?
We live in a nominal marginal (Warwick & Leamington) though it's not that marginal, despite being Labour until the last GE. We have had one Labour flyer through the door about a fortnight ago and a regular newsletter from the LibDems. There's been nothing else from anyone. Maybe all the parties have decided that the Tories are going to win here and resources are going elsewhere.
I make it 1200 Lab majority. Quite close. I'm surprised there is not more activity.
I think it's an easy enough Con Hold. Warwick and Leamington is Tony's Tories to the eyeballs.
Con had 3500 majority last time. If they lose 3-4000 to UKIP and Lab gain 4-5000 from LibDems as national polls suggest, Con lose.
That won't happen.
We'll see on the night.
As the results come in, I'm going to tune my model and hopefully it will get progressively more accurate. At least I'll know what is driving it.
Am I being thick or will restoring the spare room subsidy / cancelling the bedroom tax (delete as appropriate to your prejudices) lead to the govt having less money not more..?
You are not being thick, but this was a Labour Shadow Minister speaking.
It depends. People thrown out of their homes because they have an extra room still have to be housed. In areas where there is not spare capacity that may actually mean higher costs.
TGOHF - sounds as though you got one of the national Labour letters. Both major parties (and perhaps others) are sending out lots of these to selected voters (based on canvassing and/or demographics), and unlike localised letters they can carry on up to polling day without any impact on local spending limits - it's a well-known gap in the spending limit rules (like billboards and central phone canvassing).
But it's puzzling how little you're getting. An average Broxtowe voter will by now have had 5-6 letters and leaflets (from different parties) and a couple of phone calls. What's happening in other close marginals?
We live in a nominal marginal (Warwick & Leamington) though it's not that marginal, despite being Labour until the last GE. We have had one Labour flyer through the door about a fortnight ago and a regular newsletter from the LibDems. There's been nothing else from anyone. Maybe all the parties have decided that the Tories are going to win here and resources are going elsewhere.
I make it 1200 Lab majority. Quite close. I'm surprised there is not more activity.
I think it's an easy enough Con Hold. Warwick and Leamington is Tony's Tories to the eyeballs.
Con had 3500 majority last time. If they lose 3-4000 to UKIP and Lab gain 4-5000 from LibDems as national polls suggest, Con lose.
That won't happen.
We'll see on the night.
As the results come in, I'm going to tune my model and hopefully it will get progressively more accurate. At least I'll know what is driving it.
I bet it will
By the time you have 650 results it will be spot on!
Despite Farage’s claims that the party will take more than 10 seats, enabling him to potentially hold the balance of power, one senior Ukip official acknowledges the party will be happy with four seats and very happy with six.
The overwhelming priority for Ukip is Farage’s own campaign in South Thanet – his seventh attempt at entering parliament – especially given his pledge to stand down if he does not win. The Clacton seat of Tory-to-Ukip defector Douglas Carswell, Thurrock, and Castle Point in Essex are the others considered by his team to be the most likely chances of victory.
TGOHF - sounds as though you got one of the national Labour letters. Both major parties (and perhaps others) are sending out lots of these to selected voters (based on canvassing and/or demographics), and unlike localised letters they can carry on up to polling day without any impact on local spending limits - it's a well-known gap in the spending limit rules (like billboards and central phone canvassing).
But it's puzzling how little you're getting. An average Broxtowe voter will by now have had 5-6 letters and leaflets (from different parties) and a couple of phone calls. What's happening in other close marginals?
We live in a nominal marginal (Warwick & Leamington) though it's not that marginal, despite being Labour until the last GE. We have had one Labour flyer through the door about a fortnight ago and a regular newsletter from the LibDems. There's been nothing else from anyone. Maybe all the parties have decided that the Tories are going to win here and resources are going elsewhere.
I make it 1200 Lab majority. Quite close. I'm surprised there is not more activity.
I think it's an easy enough Con Hold. Warwick and Leamington is Tony's Tories to the eyeballs.
Con had 3500 majority last time. If they lose 3-4000 to UKIP and Lab gain 4-5000 from LibDems as national polls suggest, Con lose.
No sign of UKIP here at all and there was no significant LD surge last time. I think the boundaries may also have changed some time in the last few years in a way that works for the Tories.
Am I being thick or will restoring the spare room subsidy / cancelling the bedroom tax (delete as appropriate to your prejudices) lead to the govt having less money not more..?
You are not being thick, but this was a Labour Shadow Minister speaking.
It depends. People thrown out of their homes because they have an extra room still have to be housed. In areas where there is not spare capacity that may actually mean higher costs.
About the plane crash that will bury the election campaign for a few days, looking at flight24's data the plane started to lose altitude right after a turn as it passed Marseilles, the plane continued to lose altitude gradually without it performing any turns or maneuvers until it crashed straight into the alps.
I'm amazed that the pilots didn't issue an emergency call until just before it crashed because the apparent problem started earlier, perhaps they didn't realize that there were losing altitude.
1. Aviate 2. Navigate 3. Communicate
In that order...
It crashed on the mountainside with a speed of 400kts, just slightly less than cruising speed with no change in course throughout the descent like they had no control over any of the plane's functions or they didn't realize that it was descending.
They would have at least tried to steer the plane away from the alps and towards the nearest airport, but the plane didn't change direction.
Daily Mail Online @MailOnline 59m59 minutes ago Germanwings flight A320 plunged 31,200 feet in just ten minutes, according to radar data http://dailym.ai/1xutzOo
Sounds like plane had a mind of its own. Autopilot failure
Sounds scarily like Air France 447.
447 was totally different. It went up and down like a roller coaster as the crew misinterpreted the incorrect data.
Today's crash looks as if the crew were out cold, and the aircraft has simply flown without human interference into a mountain.
447 was an iced pitot tube, wasn't it? Which meant the crew were getting incorrect air speed data.
The funny thing is that pitot tube icing (and turning on heat to prevent it) comes really early in the PPL - by 15 hours, you should know all about it.
Yes. The pitot tube froze and they lost speed readings. The autopilot then disengaged. The copilot, for some inexplicable reason, then pulled back on the stick and the aircraft climbed. He didn't adjust power so it quickly entered a stall. The pilot was in his cabin and absent.
By the time the instruments came back online, they were giving such odd readings (over speed and stall warnings) they didn't believe them. They put the air brakes *and* the copilot kept pulling back on the stick trying to climb.
By the time the main pilot came back, and realised what was going on, they'd dropped to 4,000ft and it was too late to recover the aircraft. So they pancaked into the ocean like a stone.
Despite Farage’s claims that the party will take more than 10 seats, enabling him to potentially hold the balance of power, one senior Ukip official acknowledges the party will be happy with four seats and very happy with six.
The overwhelming priority for Ukip is Farage’s own campaign in South Thanet – his seventh attempt at entering parliament – especially given his pledge to stand down if he does not win. The Clacton seat of Tory-to-Ukip defector Douglas Carswell, Thurrock, and Castle Point in Essex are the others considered by his team to be the most likely chances of victory.
Despite Farage’s claims that the party will take more than 10 seats, enabling him to potentially hold the balance of power, one senior Ukip official acknowledges the party will be happy with four seats and very happy with six.
The overwhelming priority for Ukip is Farage’s own campaign in South Thanet – his seventh attempt at entering parliament – especially given his pledge to stand down if he does not win. The Clacton seat of Tory-to-Ukip defector Douglas Carswell, Thurrock, and Castle Point in Essex are the others considered by his team to be the most likely chances of victory.
Surely an Ashcroft Poll of this seat is greatly overdue.
He doesn't need to poll there. He polled during the by election which showed the traitorous pig dog winning the by election but losing at the general election.
The Murdoch press have always supported mass immigration, like all neo cons, they just make the occasional criticism to provide the illusion of debate and false reassurance. Limited hangout like the 1976 HSCA in the US.
Comparing Ashcroft with my model (in brackets) ......Ash.....(My model) Con 38%.. (38%) Lab 34% ..(41%) LD 7% .. (4%) Grn 7% ...(6%) UKIP 14% ..(11%)
According to Ashcroft, Lab are not getting as many LD switchers as my model assumes based on national polls. This Ashcroft poll would give a LibDem national share well above recenrt polls as W&L is not a LD marginal.
Also Green and UKIP are doing better with Ashcroft (which was in December). I have reduced the Green and UKIP vote in my model in line with recent polls.
I think it will be a close run thing with the result depending on how well Lab can squeeze the LD and Green vote (and Tories squeeze the UKIP vote). We'll see.
That's a good number for the Conservatives with Ashcroft. It's worth noting that his polls have produced good numbers for the Conservatives in marginal seats, as well as the poor ones that get most attention.
Despite Farage’s claims that the party will take more than 10 seats, enabling him to potentially hold the balance of power, one senior Ukip official acknowledges the party will be happy with four seats and very happy with six.
The overwhelming priority for Ukip is Farage’s own campaign in South Thanet – his seventh attempt at entering parliament – especially given his pledge to stand down if he does not win. The Clacton seat of Tory-to-Ukip defector Douglas Carswell, Thurrock, and Castle Point in Essex are the others considered by his team to be the most likely chances of victory.
Surely an Ashcroft Poll of this seat is greatly overdue.
He doesn't need to poll there. He polled during the by election which showed the traitorous pig dog winning the by election but losing at the general election.
TBH, I think that Reckless will hold this fairly comfortably.
TGOHF - sounds as though you got one of the national Labour letters. Both major parties (and perhaps others) are sending out lots of these to selected voters (based on canvassing and/or demographics), and unlike localised letters they can carry on up to polling day without any impact on local spending limits - it's a well-known gap in the spending limit rules (like billboards and central phone canvassing).
But it's puzzling how little you're getting. An average Broxtowe voter will by now have had 5-6 letters and leaflets (from different parties) and a couple of phone calls. What's happening in other close marginals?
We live in a nominal marginal (Warwick & Leamington) though it's not that marginal, despite being Labour until the last GE. We have had one Labour flyer through the door about a fortnight ago and a regular newsletter from the LibDems. There's been nothing else from anyone. Maybe all the parties have decided that the Tories are going to win here and resources are going elsewhere.
I make it 1200 Lab majority. Quite close. I'm surprised there is not more activity.
I think it's an easy enough Con Hold. Warwick and Leamington is Tony's Tories to the eyeballs.
Con had 3500 majority last time. If they lose 3-4000 to UKIP and Lab gain 4-5000 from LibDems as national polls suggest, Con lose.
That won't happen.
We'll see on the night.
As the results come in, I'm going to tune my model and hopefully it will get progressively more accurate. At least I'll know what is driving it.
I bet it will
By the time you have 650 results it will be spot on!
'THE leader of the national Green Party has launched an investigation into the conduct of her members at a public meeting which ended when veteran Birkenhead MP Frank Field was rushed to hospital after a shock collapse.
Mr Field wrote to Ms Bennett informing her that five Green Party members had been “going way beyond the sort of behaviour which is regarded as acceptable” and noted that other members of the public found their “activities so offensive that they had been asking them to leave”.
He said that while he was unconscious, one individual tried to take photographs of him, actions which the Birkenhead MP said “greatly upset a lot of people”.
Mr Field added: “As I was unconscious, I cannot personally verify these accusations, but so many people have told me about them that I have to think they may be true.”
Despite Farage’s claims that the party will take more than 10 seats, enabling him to potentially hold the balance of power, one senior Ukip official acknowledges the party will be happy with four seats and very happy with six.
The overwhelming priority for Ukip is Farage’s own campaign in South Thanet – his seventh attempt at entering parliament – especially given his pledge to stand down if he does not win. The Clacton seat of Tory-to-Ukip defector Douglas Carswell, Thurrock, and Castle Point in Essex are the others considered by his team to be the most likely chances of victory.
Surely an Ashcroft Poll of this seat is greatly overdue.
He doesn't need to poll there. He polled during the by election which showed the traitorous pig dog winning the by election but losing at the general election.
TBH, I think that Reckless will hold this fairly comfortably.
He's no Douglas Carswell.
Plus he was reminding his constituents he voted for the budget. Vote Nigel and get Ed does have resonance.
That was never the claim. The claim was that the NHS were denying treatment that would have allow this boy's quality of life to not be damaged by broad radiation. No one has explained why, when the NHS are planning to build their own proton therapy centres, they denied this family on the basis that it would be ineffective.
Defenders such as yourself have continually failed to address this point.
It was the claim used by a poster below. Do keep up.
I have addressed that point, as a non-expert, many times. There are many different forms of cancer, tumours etc, and surely what you want is a smorgasbord of treatments that can be used, individually or in combination, to treat each individual in the best way for them. Cheomotherapy, radiotherapy, proton beam, drugs, etc.
In the case of Ashya King, the hospital decided the best approach was to use a certain treatment. The parents disagreed. I have no idea who was right, or even if there was a 'right' answer. Neither do you.
The NHS already offers the treatment, sending patients abroad (e.g. the US) for it, so it is not as if the NHS are automatically against it.
'Defenders' of the parents such as yourself (if you insist on using such stupid terms) have no idea about the reality of his condition, or which treatment was best.
You can't just say X works for cancer: therapeutic approaches vary wildly by stage, aggressiveness, indication and location of cancer. My understanding was that, although there were studies ongoing for the use of PBI in Aysha's specific cancer they hadn't been completed and there was no approval (and no reimbursement agreement) for its use.
Yes. The pitot tube froze and they lost speed readings. The autopilot then disengaged. The copilot, for some inexplicable reason, then pulled back on the stick and the aircraft climbed. He didn't adjust power so it quickly entered a stall. The pilot was in his cabin and absent.
By the time the instruments came back online, they were giving such odd readings (over speed and stall warnings) they didn't believe them. They put the air brakes *and* the copilot kept pulling back on the stick trying to climb.
By the time the main pilot came back, and realised what was going on, they'd dropped to 4,000ft and it was too late to recover the aircraft. So they pancaked into the ocean like a stone.
And each sidestick can't be seen by the opposite pilot. If they are doing different things, computer just averages the inputs, without a peep.
Conservatives at 4-7 to hold Warwick and Leamington looks a decent price to me btw - reckon it is more of a 2-5 shot.
Shadsy is 1-3 there and he is short Lab minority overall. Also all the models have it way down on the target list for Labour, Ed is close to a majority if he hoses up there and that is over 20s !
Comparing Ashcroft with my model (in brackets) ......Ash.....(My model) Con 38%.. (38%) Lab 34% ..(41%) LD 7% .. (4%) Grn 7% ...(6%) UKIP 14% ..(11%)
According to Ashcroft, Lab are not getting as many LD switchers as my model assumes based on national polls. This Ashcroft poll would give a LibDem national share well above recenrt polls as W&L is not a LD marginal.
Also Green and UKIP are doing better with Ashcroft (which was in December). I have reduced the Green and UKIP vote in my model in line with recent polls.
I think it will be a close run thing with the result depending on how well Lab can squeeze the LD and Green vote (and Tories squeeze the UKIP vote). We'll see.
Your model clearly takes no account of the Lib Dem local strength in Leamington where they won 2 of the CC seats in 2013 ( one of which is a double size seat electing 2 councillors .
The Murdoch press have always supported mass immigration, like all neo cons, they just make the occasional criticism to provide the illusion of debate and false reassurance. Limited hangout like the 1976 HSCA in the US.
What a nutjob you are. 'Neo Cons'... hilarious.
I don't understand what you are saying, neo cons don't exist, neo cons aren't pro immigration or that Murdoch isn't a neo con godfather?
alex thomson @alextomo 14m14 minutes ago Fmr Sun editor Kelvin Mackenzie who published lies about the Hillsborough Disaster has been reported to Attorney Generals' Office...
alex thomson @alextomo 17 mins17 minutes ago ...after publishing a commentary article recently
Yes. The pitot tube froze and they lost speed readings. The autopilot then disengaged. The copilot, for some inexplicable reason, then pulled back on the stick and the aircraft climbed. He didn't adjust power so it quickly entered a stall. The pilot was in his cabin and absent.
By the time the instruments came back online, they were giving such odd readings (over speed and stall warnings) they didn't believe them. They put the air brakes *and* the copilot kept pulling back on the stick trying to climb.
By the time the main pilot came back, and realised what was going on, they'd dropped to 4,000ft and it was too late to recover the aircraft. So they pancaked into the ocean like a stone.
And each sidestick can't be seen by the opposite pilot. If they are doing different things, computer just averages the inputs, without a peep.
Great design, eh?
Insane. I find the whole incident particularly tragic.
While we're talking about a lack of state accountability, did you see my question to you about the justification used by those voting down the amendment to give whistle blowers immunity? I can not make head nor tail of parliament's decision there at the moment.
I think it is very possible and the Conservatives locally are quietly confident as they are in Amber Valley. Jack's TCTC looks right to me.
I could see this being somewhere that a strong UKIP showing could hurt Labour more than the Tories. Maybe that is what they are seeing and giving this quiet confidence. If so, I could also see it being a factor in the north of Nick's constituency - Kimberley and Eastwood. Not something that Nick has acknowledged, however.
Eastwood isn't in the constituency (though it's in the borough). I do agree that you'd expect to see a decent UKIP showing in Kimberley, as it's on the edge of the former mining area. I've been surprised not to find it, so far - just the occasional voter here and there. To be fair I don't get the impression that they're doing much to the Tories either. UKIP is structurally weak here - the candidate is from outside the patch and so far very low key (their website doesn't mention him), and their canvassing seems random - e.g. they had a recent push in a wealthy intellectual ward (think of Polly Toynbee incarnated as an electoral division), but have done nothing in another ward which really is a former mining village. We're a bit puzzled.
It depends. People thrown out of their homes because they have an extra room still have to be housed. In areas where there is not spare capacity that may actually mean higher costs.
Ah, the old Ed Miliband PMQs logical howler, and what a humdinger it is.
Southam, you're not as thick as Rachel Reeves appears to be. If there's no spare capacity in the area, and a large home is freed up because someone who doesn't need it is no longer subsidised to occupy it, what happen next?
That's a good number for the Conservatives with Ashcroft. It's worth noting that his polls have produced good numbers for the Conservatives in marginal seats, as well as the poor ones that get most attention.
I'd really like to understand the difference between an Ashcroft for Warwick&Leamington and an Ashcroft for Chester.
Rupert Myers (@RupertMyers) 24/03/2015 13:14 My guide to the booming trend in UK political betting for @BritishGQ . How to win even if your party loses: gq.uk/MHQQ81
Despite Farage’s claims that the party will take more than 10 seats, enabling him to potentially hold the balance of power, one senior Ukip official acknowledges the party will be happy with four seats and very happy with six.
The overwhelming priority for Ukip is Farage’s own campaign in South Thanet – his seventh attempt at entering parliament – especially given his pledge to stand down if he does not win. The Clacton seat of Tory-to-Ukip defector Douglas Carswell, Thurrock, and Castle Point in Essex are the others considered by his team to be the most likely chances of victory.
Surely an Ashcroft Poll of this seat is greatly overdue.
He doesn't need to poll there. He polled during the by election which showed the traitorous pig dog winning the by election but losing at the general election.
The people of Rochester & Strood didn't see him as a TPD!!
Rupert Myers (@RupertMyers) 24/03/2015 13:14 My guide to the booming trend in UK political betting for @BritishGQ . How to win even if your party loses: gq.uk/MHQQ81
Betting either for or against your preferences is a very quick route to the poorhouse I reckon, and something I have tried my utmost to avoid.
Comparing Ashcroft with my model (in brackets) ......Ash.....(My model) Con 38%.. (38%) Lab 34% ..(41%) LD 7% .. (4%) Grn 7% ...(6%) UKIP 14% ..(11%)
According to Ashcroft, Lab are not getting as many LD switchers as my model assumes based on national polls. This Ashcroft poll would give a LibDem national share well above recenrt polls as W&L is not a LD marginal.
Also Green and UKIP are doing better with Ashcroft (which was in December). I have reduced the Green and UKIP vote in my model in line with recent polls.
I think it will be a close run thing with the result depending on how well Lab can squeeze the LD and Green vote (and Tories squeeze the UKIP vote). We'll see.
Your model clearly takes no account of the Lib Dem local strength in Leamington where they won 2 of the CC seats in 2013 ( one of which is a double size seat electing 2 councillors .
You are right. I don't. And perhaps that is the explanation for the difference.
My model is a switching matrix (actually it is three: One each for Scotland, LibDem marginals and rest of UK) with assumptions of what % of 2010 Con, Lab etc switch to Con, Lab etc in 2015. It uses switching data from various polls and is tuned to match the latest ELBOW shares (or Scottish polls). It has no local knowledge.
The advantage of not using local knowledge (or anecdotes) or any subjective feel is that it is not swayed by emotion and though it will be wrong in particular constituencies, the effects should balance out to give a reasonable overall picture.
The disadvantage of not using local knowledge is that it could be badly wrong in particular constituencies which is why I don't bet on particular constituencies (except my own where I have local knowledge and I'm on to a winner).
Perhaps I should stop posting my estimates for particular constituencies and stick to the national picture.
Comparing Ashcroft with my model (in brackets) ......Ash.....(My model) Con 38%.. (38%) Lab 34% ..(41%) LD 7% .. (4%) Grn 7% ...(6%) UKIP 14% ..(11%)
According to Ashcroft, Lab are not getting as many LD switchers as my model assumes based on national polls. This Ashcroft poll would give a LibDem national share well above recenrt polls as W&L is not a LD marginal.
Also Green and UKIP are doing better with Ashcroft (which was in December). I have reduced the Green and UKIP vote in my model in line with recent polls.
I think it will be a close run thing with the result depending on how well Lab can squeeze the LD and Green vote (and Tories squeeze the UKIP vote). We'll see.
Your model clearly takes no account of the Lib Dem local strength in Leamington where they won 2 of the CC seats in 2013 ( one of which is a double size seat electing 2 councillors .
You are right. I don't. And perhaps that is the explanation for the difference.
My model is a switching matrix (actually it is three: One each for Scotland, LibDem marginals and rest of UK) with assumptions of what % of 2010 Con, Lab etc switch to Con, Lab etc in 2015. It uses switching data from various polls and is tuned to match the latest ELBOW shares (or Scottish polls). It has no local knowledge.
The advantage of not using local knowledge (or anecdotes) or any subjective feel is that it is not swayed by emotion and though it will be wrong in particular constituencies, the effects should balance out to give a reasonable overall picture.
The disadvantage of not using local knowledge is that it could be badly wrong in particular constituencies which is why I don't bet on particular constituencies (except my own where I have local knowledge and I'm on to a winner).
Perhaps I should stop posting my estimates for particular constituencies and stick to the national picture.
FWIW , the 2013 CC results in Warwick/Leamington would indicate a comfortable Conservative hold .
Serious question - Do Conservative supporters just enjoy piling cash onto Evens shots at sub 1.5 whilst ignoring the far better value in the constituency markets ???!
That's a good number for the Conservatives with Ashcroft. It's worth noting that his polls have produced good numbers for the Conservatives in marginal seats, as well as the poor ones that get most attention.
I'd really like to understand the difference between an Ashcroft for Warwick&Leamington and an Ashcroft for Chester.
I think it could be the MoE of +/- 3% on samples of 1000. Or it could be local factors. Or both.
Despite Farage’s claims that the party will take more than 10 seats, enabling him to potentially hold the balance of power, one senior Ukip official acknowledges the party will be happy with four seats and very happy with six.
The overwhelming priority for Ukip is Farage’s own campaign in South Thanet – his seventh attempt at entering parliament – especially given his pledge to stand down if he does not win. The Clacton seat of Tory-to-Ukip defector Douglas Carswell, Thurrock, and Castle Point in Essex are the others considered by his team to be the most likely chances of victory.
Came across the Guardian series of seat analyses - a bit inconsequential ("our panel member Fred Smith said...") and not as witty as Ashcroft on his focus groups, but interesting nonetheless:
Despite Farage’s claims that the party will take more than 10 seats, enabling him to potentially hold the balance of power, one senior Ukip official acknowledges the party will be happy with four seats and very happy with six.
The overwhelming priority for Ukip is Farage’s own campaign in South Thanet – his seventh attempt at entering parliament – especially given his pledge to stand down if he does not win. The Clacton seat of Tory-to-Ukip defector Douglas Carswell, Thurrock, and Castle Point in Essex are the others considered by his team to be the most likely chances of victory.
Surely an Ashcroft Poll of this seat is greatly overdue.
He doesn't need to poll there. He polled during the by election which showed the traitorous pig dog winning the by election but losing at the general election.
TBH, I think that Reckless will hold this fairly comfortably.
He's no Douglas Carswell.
Plus he was reminding his constituents he voted for the budget. Vote Nigel and get Ed does have resonance.
Comments
Unless you're planning on attaching special mind control devices, then migrants are going to be uncontrolled.
"It is understood that Ms Yeo was removed as Labour group leader on Ashford Council last week after being accused of non-attendance at meetings and a failure to undertake casework, and was deselected last night as a candidate for the 2015 local elections."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/labours-harriet-yeo-leaves-party-to-support-ukip-in-general-election-10052349.html
Scottish Government = more money
Scrapping the subsidy saved the UK government money. The SNP decided not to scrap it, so they carried on spending money. If Labour reinstates it, the SNP will carry on paying it as they have always done.
Net gain in Scotland = zero.
A bit like VAT...
#facepalm
The Scottish budget would be unchanged. The Scottish Government, however, would have £45m in savings to spend in another area or to cut taxes.
Warwick Leamington: Con HOLD.
As the results come in, I'm going to tune my model and hopefully it will get progressively more accurate. At least I'll know what is driving it.
By the time you have 650 results it will be spot on!
The overwhelming priority for Ukip is Farage’s own campaign in South Thanet – his seventh attempt at entering parliament – especially given his pledge to stand down if he does not win. The Clacton seat of Tory-to-Ukip defector Douglas Carswell, Thurrock, and Castle Point in Essex are the others considered by his team to be the most likely chances of victory.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/24/ukip-taking-election-fight-to-tories-in-a-few-key-battlegrounds
By the time the instruments came back online, they were giving such odd readings (over speed and stall warnings) they didn't believe them. They put the air brakes *and* the copilot kept pulling back on the stick trying to climb.
By the time the main pilot came back, and realised what was going on, they'd dropped to 4,000ft and it was too late to recover the aircraft. So they pancaked into the ocean like a stone.
Surely an Ashcroft Poll of this seat is greatly overdue.
Comparing Ashcroft with my model (in brackets)
......Ash.....(My model)
Con 38%.. (38%)
Lab 34% ..(41%)
LD 7% .. (4%)
Grn 7% ...(6%)
UKIP 14% ..(11%)
According to Ashcroft, Lab are not getting as many LD switchers as my model assumes based on national polls. This Ashcroft poll would give a LibDem national share well above recenrt polls as W&L is not a LD marginal.
Also Green and UKIP are doing better with Ashcroft (which was in December). I have reduced the Green and UKIP vote in my model in line with recent polls.
I think it will be a close run thing with the result depending on how well Lab can squeeze the LD and Green vote (and Tories squeeze the UKIP vote). We'll see.
Can I ask that you please use a url shortener or put long links like the one above in anchor tags like this
really long links (or just long unbroken words) mess up the site formatting on mobile devices.
The site is mostly unreadable.
Mods isn't there a discus setting for doing this automatically?
24/03/2015 14:47
Latest Folkestone & Hythe odds
1/5 @DamianCollins Con
4/1 @shookyshiner UKIP
16 @MrsCJeffrey Lab
50 @LynneBeaumont LD
100 @martinwhybrow Grn
Plus he was reminding his constituents he voted for the budget. Vote Nigel and get Ed does have resonance.
@MarkReckless: Just voted for the Budget - this is what Confidence and Supply looks like http://t.co/UdR3eQaB2L
Great design, eh?
EDIT comment void, A bet has been struck
Shadsy is 1-3 there and he is short Lab minority overall. Also all the models have it way down on the target list for Labour, Ed is close to a majority if he hoses up there and that is over 20s !
What do you make of this betting heat? Ukip were 3/1, I think I had it in the third tier of possibility
Yeo better than Janice?
Most people would think he was the Tory and she the kipper I reckon
He'll wipe the floor with her again I think
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/murdoch-is-daddy-warbucks-to-the-neocons/
alex thomson @alextomo 14m14 minutes ago
Fmr Sun editor Kelvin Mackenzie who published lies about the Hillsborough Disaster has been reported to Attorney Generals' Office...
alex thomson @alextomo 17 mins17 minutes ago
...after publishing a commentary article recently
Southam, you're not as thick as Rachel Reeves appears to be. If there's no spare capacity in the area, and a large home is freed up because someone who doesn't need it is no longer subsidised to occupy it, what happen next?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whistling_duck
24/03/2015 13:14
My guide to the booming trend in UK political betting for @BritishGQ . How to win even if your party loses: gq.uk/MHQQ81
Lab 1.1% lead
However - will Ms Yeo follow suit next March if she wins her seat ? Could be interesting.
My model is a switching matrix (actually it is three: One each for Scotland, LibDem marginals and rest of UK) with assumptions of what % of 2010 Con, Lab etc switch to Con, Lab etc in 2015. It uses switching data from various polls and is tuned to match the latest ELBOW shares (or Scottish polls). It has no local knowledge.
The advantage of not using local knowledge (or anecdotes) or any subjective feel is that it is not swayed by emotion and though it will be wrong in particular constituencies, the effects should balance out to give a reasonable overall picture.
The disadvantage of not using local knowledge is that it could be badly wrong in particular constituencies which is why I don't bet on particular constituencies (except my own where I have local knowledge and I'm on to a winner).
Perhaps I should stop posting my estimates for particular constituencies and stick to the national picture.
Conservatives Warwick & Leamington 1.57.....
Bonkers.
Chester
.....Ash....(my model)
Con .. 34% ...(37%)
Lab...45% ...(41%)
LD ...7% ...(4%)
Grn ...3% ..(6%)
UKIP ..10% ...(11%)
If Ed Miliband takes Warwick and Leamington he will be our next Prime Minister :P
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/24/south-thanet-voters-heart-nigel-farage-bid-capture-tory-seat