The main effect is another 3 days lost talking about BS when it could be better spent on Con`s campaign priorities.
ROFL yes because labour's campaign priorities are going so well.
How many gains in Scotland do you see ?
Labour`s campaign is focussing on their priorities-NHS and others.
Con`s campaign so far has been to defend Cameron from his cowardice about the debates and now his stupidity of talking about successors before an election campaign.
So what you mean is that Labour are working their asses off selling their main message, while Cameron and crowd sit around chillaxing and batting aside the odd bit of nonsense about the debates (while getting exactly the debates they want)
I remember reading on PB a few years ago, that Osborne was stoking inflation....
Stoking inflation would have been a good thing. It would have been a way of distributing some of the pain more evenly between age groups, given all the pampering pensioners have had.
Most ungeneorus antifrank. Who has been pampered more than gay, metroplitan high rate tax payers - and they won't even vote for him.
The main effect is another 3 days lost talking about BS when it could be better spent on Con`s campaign priorities.
ROFL yes because labour's campaign priorities are going so well.
How many gains in Scotland do you see ?
Labour`s campaign is focussing on their priorities-NHS and others.
Con`s campaign so far has been to defend Cameron from his cowardice about the debates and now his stupidity of talking about successors before an election campaign.
In your world.
meanwhile elsewhere......
Ok.I bet in your world,swingback is happening and Con has increased it`s lead to 7 points over the last 3 weeks...
Meanwhile...
No in my world it will be a hung Parlt, cons most votes most seats. labouites won't be arsed to turn out for Ed.
.
Sunil`s ELBOW will show a Lab lead today.Con most votes,most seats is based on swingback happening.Over the last 3 weeks what`s happened is the reverse.
You could make this argument for any conflict of interest for someone in a skilled profession. The question is not whether she is capable. The question is whether she will be interviewing the economics spokesman for different parties fairly, given that she has a romantic history with one of them. At a minimum, the public have a right to know whether there is an existing personal relationship there. The Daily Mail article that was linked to also mentioned she was a tutorial partner with Yvette Cooper, so that is three major Labour figures she had a conflict of interest with.
Morning news was all Dave, Dave , Dave and then some Argy bargy near the Falklands ! Tory heaven !
Definitely better for Dave than the Dudley North stuff that was running last evening.
I have to say, I did wonder the same thing. But Cam was interviewed at the weekend, over sunday lunch I believe, so would he have known about the Dudley disaster at that point?
The main effect is another 3 days lost talking about BS when it could be better spent on Con`s campaign priorities.
ROFL yes because labour's campaign priorities are going so well.
How many gains in Scotland do you see ?
Labour`s campaign is focussing on their priorities-NHS and others.
Con`s campaign so far has been to defend Cameron from his cowardice about the debates and now his stupidity of talking about successors before an election campaign.
In your world.
meanwhile elsewhere......
Ok.I bet in your world,swingback is happening and Con has increased it`s lead to 7 points over the last 3 weeks...
Meanwhile...
No in my world it will be a hung Parlt, cons most votes most seats. labouites won't be arsed to turn out for Ed.
.
Sunil`s ELBOW will show a Lab lead today.Con most votes,most seats is based on swingback happening.Over the last 3 weeks what`s happened is the reverse.
I welcome you to the real world mate.
well we'll see, I've been on con most votes most seats for ther last 2 years. Ed just doesn't reach the parts other politicans can reach.
The only issue is does Dc get enough seats to go in to coalition 2.
With all the focus on David Cameron's honesty with repeated playing of his BBC interview and inflation at nought bet Channel 4 Dispatches bosses are 'livid' that their programme on donors has been swamped from the news
The main effect is another 3 days lost talking about BS when it could be better spent on Con`s campaign priorities.
ROFL yes because labour's campaign priorities are going so well.
How many gains in Scotland do you see ?
Labour`s campaign is focussing on their priorities-NHS and others.
Con`s campaign so far has been to defend Cameron from his cowardice about the debates and now his stupidity of talking about successors before an election campaign.
So what you mean is that Labour are working their asses off selling their main message, while Cameron and crowd sit around chillaxing and batting aside the odd bit of nonsense about the debates (while getting exactly the debates they want)
... and you are still tied in the polls ?
We`ll be happily tied.It`s Cons who need to be up to tie us on seats.And the NATS won`t deal with you,so your chances are receding everyday you don`t get a lead on votes.
David Cameron gives an honest answer to a question and the Westminster Village, BBC and labour go into overdrive with faux outrage while at the same time every public response on Radio 5 live this am complimented him on his honesty and in one classic response someone said 'the Westminster bubble should just float away'. You watch David Cameron's population rise on this.
There has been the same sort of response from the public on Radio London as well.
Cameron gave an answer to straight forward question, the answer was broadly what had long been expected, but apparently this is some sort of tactical blunder or outrageous presumption. I for one would like more of this.
Macmillan Cancer Support analysed the most recent results from global research into cancer survival and found many countries were doing better in the 1990s than the UK has managed to date.
The charity's chief executive has urged political leaders to commit to tackling the "shameful" survival rates ahead of the General Election.
Lucky BJO told us it is leading the world, otherwise we might think we are in trouble.
Morning news was all Dave, Dave , Dave and then some Argy bargy near the Falklands ! Tory heaven !
Definitely better for Dave than the Dudley North stuff that was running last evening.
I have to say, I did wonder the same thing. But Cam was interviewed at the weekend, over sunday lunch I believe, so would he have known about the Dudley disaster at that point?
Dave has the luck of the devil...
If it wasn't for bad luck, Ed wood have none at all.
On topic, maybe Cameron just can't be arsed with it all any more. This would explain him coming up with a "renegotiation" plan that was obviously completely impractical not to mention very hard for any potential coalition partners to swallow, then hooking it around "if I am Prime Minister, this will happen". Instead he comes out as largest party, resigns to be good to his word, lets somebody else come up with a more sensible policy, goes down in history as Britain's most principled leader ever and finally gets to take some time off.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 21st March Projection) :
Con 310 (+2) .. Lab 246 (-2) .. LibDem 32 (NC) .. SNP 36 (NC) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - TCTC Warwickshire North - TCTC Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - TCTC from Likely Lab Gain Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 21 Mar - Enfield North moves from Likely Lab GAIN to TCTC
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
Matrix Switching Model
Bury North - Likely Lab Gain Pudsey - Lab Gain Broxtowe - Lab Gain Warwickshire North - Lab Gain Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Lab Gain Watford - Likely Con Hold Croydon Central - Likely Lab Gain Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain Cornwall North - Likely Con Gain Great Yarmouth - Likely Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - TCTC Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
On topic, maybe Cameron just can't be arsed with it all any more. This would explain him coming up with a "renegotiation" plan that was obviously completely impractical not to mention very hard for any potential coalition partners to swallow, then hooking it around "if I am Prime Minister, this will happen". Instead he comes out as largest party, resigns to be good to his word, lets somebody else come up with a more sensible policy, goes down in history as Britain's most principled leader ever and finally gets to take some time off.
Or he has looked at recent PMs who have gone into a third term and thought 'Hmmm, that didn't go well, two terms is enough for any PM'
Recent history is on his side here, and it is very obvious how popularity of the leader has declined fast over extended time.
I think for both the electorate and himself it is a no brainer to point out that we will have had enough of each other by the end of a second term.
I remember reading on PB a few years ago, that Osborne was stoking inflation....
Stoking inflation would have been a good thing. It would have been a way of distributing some of the pain more evenly between age groups, given all the pampering pensioners have had.
I thought the thinking at the Bank of England was to target nominal GDP growth of 5%*, and to be supremely relaxed about how that broke down between inflation and real growth. So a few years ago we had inflation of 5% and zero growth, but that was fine because it's nominal GDP growth of 5%. Similarly, last year inflation was down, real GDP growth was up, so nominal GDP growth was still around 5%.
Unless growth really accelerates this year it looks like we will have nominal GDP growth of about 3%, with zero inflation. That's why the Chief Economist at the Bank is talking about cutting interest rates. Nominal GDP growth is expected to be a lot lower than planned.
* I think this is because it's the level of nominal GDP growth that determines whether you are caught in a debt deflation trap.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 21st March Projection) :
Con 310 (+2) .. Lab 246 (-2) .. LibDem 32 (NC) .. SNP 36 (NC) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - TCTC Warwickshire North - TCTC Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - TCTC from Likely Lab Gain Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 21 Mar - Enfield North moves from Likely Lab GAIN to TCTC
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
Matrix Switching Model
Bury North - Likely Lab Gain Pudsey - Lab Gain Broxtowe - Lab Gain Warwickshire North - Lab Gain Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Lab Gain Watford - Likely Con Hold Croydon Central - Likely Lab Gain Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain Cornwall North - Likely Con Gain Great Yarmouth - Likely Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - TCTC Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Thank you for that appreciation.
However I feel your Labour "Gain" considerations are somewhat like England winning the Cricket World Cup - an utter fantasy with Ed Miliband failing even to get out of the Group Stage.
"You only have to look at the mass of Dave-centred glossy literature being pushed through letter boxes in the key marginals at the moment to realise how important Cameron is to the campaign."
NE Derbyshire is not a marginal to my mind, but I know it is part of the 40:40 strategy.
Dave is doing a repeat of what Jim Callaghan did in 1979 and what Tony Blair did in 2005 saying they intend to retire asPM at the end of the subsequent parliament. I do not see this as a surprise.
The question is if he remains PM after 7 May, will he in fact retire in 2019 or early 2020 and we have a new PM then when Conservative members elect him/her or does a new Conservative leader be elected early 2020 and Dave remains PM till election and then retires as PM ( and probably but not necessarily as MP also)? Strangely I do not rule out the second option as after all this is what happened last time in both a small and a large country - I refer to Ireland and to India.
Of course Daves future plans may be affected by the possibility of a general election before 2020 which is possible despite Fixed Parliament. If Daves government lost a future vote ofconfidence, I do not think he could stand in ensuing GE and party would have to anoint a successor or he may realise in advance his government may fall and he may retire before the embarrassment of the loss of vote of confidence.
24.3.15 LAB 292 (291) CON 271(271) LD 30(30) UKIP 2(3) Others 55(55) (Ed is crap is PM) Last weeks BJESUS in brackets BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) Using current polling adjusted for 43 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
Is there anyone, anyone at all, who seriously thought Cameron would try to go on for a third term?
Who knows, notwithstanding my "maybe he just can't be arsed with all this shit any more" theory, it's unusual for Prime Ministers to leave until they're either dragged out by their own party or booted out by the voters. Just thinking about British PMs in the last century or so, how many examples can we think of who went of their own accord?
Is there anyone, anyone at all, who seriously thought Cameron would try to go on for a third term?
Moi.
I thought there was a prospect of Cameron winning a third election in 2020 and then departing after a couple of years just as Blair did.
By 2020 he'll have been Conservative leader for 15 years (assuming he lasts that long, of course). Of modern Conservative leaders only Maggie lasted that long, and by common consent it was too long.
Is there anyone, anyone at all, who seriously thought Cameron would try to go on for a third term?
Moi.
I thought there was a prospect of Cameron winning a third election in 2020 and then departing after a couple of years just as Blair did.
By 2020 he'll have been Conservative leader for 15 years (assuming he lasts that long, of course). Of modern Conservative leaders only Maggie lasted that long, and by common consent it was too long.
I'd venture to suggest that Maggie and Dave are different characters and certainly with Cameron there has never been the suggestion that he'd go "on and on".
Also the rush of Conservative leaders in the early 2000's is unusual.
24.3.15 LAB 292 (291) CON 271(271) LD 30(30) UKIP 2(3) Others 55(55) (Ed is crap is PM) Last weeks BJESUS in brackets BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) Using current polling adjusted for 43 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 21st March Projection) :
Con 310 (+2) .. Lab 246 (-2) .. LibDem 32 (NC) .. SNP 36 (NC) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - TCTC Warwickshire North - TCTC Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - TCTC from Likely Lab Gain Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 21 Mar - Enfield North moves from Likely Lab GAIN to TCTC
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
Matrix Switching Model
Bury North - Likely Lab Gain Pudsey - Lab Gain Broxtowe - Lab Gain Warwickshire North - Lab Gain Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Lab Gain Watford - Likely Con Hold Croydon Central - Likely Lab Gain Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain Cornwall North - Likely Con Gain Great Yarmouth - Likely Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - TCTC Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Thank you for that appreciation.
However I feel your Labour "Gain" considerations are somewhat like England winning the Cricket World Cup - an utter fantasy with Ed Miliband failing even to get out of the Group Stage.
We'll see, won't we? Let's compare early morning 8th May.
My model doesn't do trends. It is based on current polling so it is a prediction of what would happen if there was an election today.
looking at @TSE's deleted post I don't think that is as bad for the SNP as it may look - it was "additional" SNP voters, Scotland's turnout was only 63.8% last time so may well nudge up a bit plus some of those saying Labour may not turnout on the day either...
Macmillan Cancer Support analysed the most recent results from global research into cancer survival and found many countries were doing better in the 1990s than the UK has managed to date.
The charity's chief executive has urged political leaders to commit to tackling the "shameful" survival rates ahead of the General Election.
Lucky BJO told us it is leading the world, otherwise we might think we are in trouble.
Cancer is a ticking time bomb of public anger in the UK. It's such a total deception - look at that poor boy the NHS were basically set to watch die, brought back to health in Romania of all places. Little wonder they wanted the parents arrested and the boy dragged back to his death bed. People are ceasing to believe in terminal cancer, and nor should they.
Is there anyone, anyone at all, who seriously thought Cameron would try to go on for a third term?
No, but given what we know about the British media, and their inability to deal with direct honesty without running around like headless chickens, he should probably have dissembled.
If the Conservatives are still in government after the election then the media will try to give us a four-year long Conservative leadership campaign. I think this reflects badly on the British media, rather than Cameron, but he would have done us all a favour to keep his intention not to serve a third term to himself.
I remember reading on PB a few years ago, that Osborne was stoking inflation....
I am going to put my hand up for that. I really did not see how all that QE could not result in a run on the £ and consequential inflation. I clearly underestimated the deflationary effects of the reduction of Bank balance sheets and the reduction of consumer borrowing.
I also expected interest rates to be rising by now on the back of stronger growth. Once again I underestimated the deflationary pressures but at least I am consistently wrong!
The management of Osborne and Mark Carney over these last several years is arguably the finest we have seen over a sustained period for at least 50 years.
It's purely a hunch and I've spoken to no-one about it but I think this is a westminster village story. It may have dominated the news yesterday but the election is hardly gripping people anyway. It will make a difference to the internal dynamics of the Tory party if Cameron wins but I can't see it causing him problems at the election. How many PMs have served longer than 10 years consecutively? Only one in a very very long time. Alistair Campbell looked pained on Newsnight but then I think he knows Blair never really recovered his authority after his announcement and he doesn't like Cameron anyway. Easy to forget that Blair was already under pressure in 2004 and did it to reassert himself against the Brownites. If he went into an election pledging to serve a full term what authority would they have to remove him if they won?
Is there anyone, anyone at all, who seriously thought Cameron would try to go on for a third term?
Moi.
I thought there was a prospect of Cameron winning a third election in 2020 and then departing after a couple of years just as Blair did.
By 2020 he'll have been Conservative leader for 15 years (assuming he lasts that long, of course). Of modern Conservative leaders only Maggie lasted that long, and by common consent it was too long.
I do not think that Margaret Thatcher lasted too long. The problem was that she was brought down by some of the disloyal types like Heseltine who had their own agendas. Had she stayed in office, she would never have signed Maastrict, for example, which already means she would have been better than her replacement.
Macmillan Cancer Support analysed the most recent results from global research into cancer survival and found many countries were doing better in the 1990s than the UK has managed to date.
The charity's chief executive has urged political leaders to commit to tackling the "shameful" survival rates ahead of the General Election.
Lucky BJO told us it is leading the world, otherwise we might think we are in trouble.
Cancer is a ticking time bomb of public anger in the UK. It's such a total deception - look at that poor boy the NHS were basically set to watch die, brought back to health in Romania of all places. Little wonder they wanted the parents arrested and the boy dragged back to his death bed. People are ceasing to believe in terminal cancer, and nor should they.
But it's the envy of the world!
Perhaps the dancing nurses at the Olympic opening ceremony, should have been replaced with whirling Undertakers.
Deflation beckons, low oil prices have helped low inflation , nothing to do with government!
Has a government ever gone into an election with a better economic record than the Coalition? Healthy growth, plummeting unemployment and zero inflation. It's a tragedy that people can't just vote Coalition.
Deflation beckons, low oil prices have helped low inflation , nothing to do with government!
Has a government ever gone into an election with a better economic record than the Coalition? Healthy growth, plummeting unemployment and zero inflation. It's a tragedy that people can't just vote Coalition.
We should have had a "coupon" election like in 1918!
I remember reading on PB a few years ago, that Osborne was stoking inflation....
I am going to put my hand up for that. I really did not see how all that QE could not result in a run on the £ and consequential inflation. I clearly underestimated the deflationary effects of the reduction of Bank balance sheets and the reduction of consumer borrowing.
I also expected interest rates to be rising by now on the back of stronger growth. Once again I underestimated the deflationary pressures but at least I am consistently wrong!
The management of Osborne and Mark Carney over these last several years is arguably the finest we have seen over a sustained period for at least 50 years.
I thought QE = future inflation when Brown initiated it and Osborne continued it. One of the known knowns is that I know I know little about macro economics.
I remember reading on PB a few years ago, that Osborne was stoking inflation....
I am going to put my hand up for that. I really did not see how all that QE could not result in a run on the £ and consequential inflation. I clearly underestimated the deflationary effects of the reduction of Bank balance sheets and the reduction of consumer borrowing.
I also expected interest rates to be rising by now on the back of stronger growth. Once again I underestimated the deflationary pressures but at least I am consistently wrong!
The management of Osborne and Mark Carney over these last several years is arguably the finest we have seen over a sustained period for at least 50 years.
I agree totally with that last statement, Osborne has worked a miracle and anyone that cannot see that is a partisan idiot who cares more about his party than the country.
Prof Christopher Colton, emeritus consultant in orthopaedic and accident surgery, Nottingham University Hospital, said: “If that X-ray presented itself at a hospital, all the alarm bells would ring for possible non-accidental injury.
“There are absolutely clear two episodes of violence and possibly the bone bruise is a third." Prof Colton explained: “There is a fresh fracture in the middle of the leg, which is less than ten days old. Above the ankle there is a healed fracture consistent with a blow to the outer side of the leg, which is at least three to four weeks old.
“On the knee side of the main fracture, there is a slight white haze in the centre of the bone suggesting a healed bone bruise or a healed green stick fracture, about five to six weeks old.” Prof Colton said there are other possibilities, such as the child having brittle bone disease, however he said he is “90 per cent certain” it is non-accidental injury.
Labour were obviously just using a stock photo, but possibly a bit stupid not to have got a doctor to eyeball it first.
I remember reading on PB a few years ago, that Osborne was stoking inflation....
I am going to put my hand up for that. I really did not see how all that QE could not result in a run on the £ and consequential inflation. I clearly underestimated the deflationary effects of the reduction of Bank balance sheets and the reduction of consumer borrowing.
I also expected interest rates to be rising by now on the back of stronger growth. Once again I underestimated the deflationary pressures but at least I am consistently wrong!
The management of Osborne and Mark Carney over these last several years is arguably the finest we have seen over a sustained period for at least 50 years.
I thought QE = future inflation when Brown initiated it and Osborne continued it. One of the known knowns is that I know I know little about macro economics.
With the benefit of hindsight I see that reduction of Bank balance sheets and the consequential reduction of credit in the economy was so massive that it needed QE on the scale it was to offset it.
But I did not see that at the time. It has been an incredible achievement and brilliantly calibrated.
Comments
Or something like that
[Dispatches last night]
You just know this is going to end in a tie, and the Saffers are out.
... and you are still tied in the polls ?
Sunil`s ELBOW will show a Lab lead today.Con most votes,most seats is based on swingback happening.Over the last 3 weeks what`s happened is the reverse.
I welcome you to the real world mate.
You could make this argument for any conflict of interest for someone in a skilled profession. The question is not whether she is capable. The question is whether she will be interviewing the economics spokesman for different parties fairly, given that she has a romantic history with one of them. At a minimum, the public have a right to know whether there is an existing personal relationship there. The Daily Mail article that was linked to also mentioned she was a tutorial partner with Yvette Cooper, so that is three major Labour figures she had a conflict of interest with.
The only issue is does Dc get enough seats to go in to coalition 2.
I reckon the Saffers will hold out.
Cameron gave an answer to straight forward question, the answer was broadly what had long been expected, but apparently this is some sort of tactical blunder or outrageous presumption. I for one would like more of this.
http://news.sky.com/story/1451236/uk-10-years-behind-europe-on-cancer-survival Lucky BJO told us it is leading the world, otherwise we might think we are in trouble.
If it wasn't for bad luck, Ed wood have none at all.
9 off 4 is perhaps batting side, but 9 off 3 isn't...
South Africa always choke.
Need Guptil to score 10 in final to overhaul Sanga should be enough to be top runscorer at 16/1
Bury North - Likely Lab Gain
Pudsey - Lab Gain
Broxtowe - Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Lab Gain
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Lab Gain
Watford - Likely Con Hold
Croydon Central - Likely Lab Gain
Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain
Cornwall North - Likely Con Gain
Great Yarmouth - Likely Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - TCTC
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Recent history is on his side here, and it is very obvious how popularity of the leader has declined fast over extended time.
I think for both the electorate and himself it is a no brainer to point out that we will have had enough of each other by the end of a second term.
Unless growth really accelerates this year it looks like we will have nominal GDP growth of about 3%, with zero inflation. That's why the Chief Economist at the Bank is talking about cutting interest rates. Nominal GDP growth is expected to be a lot lower than planned.
* I think this is because it's the level of nominal GDP growth that determines whether you are caught in a debt deflation trap.
However I feel your Labour "Gain" considerations are somewhat like England winning the Cricket World Cup - an utter fantasy with Ed Miliband failing even to get out of the Group Stage.
`My health is OK`.
Bizarre.
I thought there was a prospect of Cameron winning a third election in 2020 and then departing after a couple of years just as Blair did.
NE Derbyshire is not a marginal to my mind, but I know it is part of the 40:40 strategy.
Not a mention of Dave on my doorstep literature.
The question is if he remains PM after 7 May, will he in fact retire in 2019 or early 2020 and we have a new PM then when Conservative members elect him/her or does a new Conservative leader be elected early 2020 and Dave remains PM till election and then retires as PM ( and probably but not necessarily as MP also)? Strangely I do not rule out the second option as after all this is what happened last time in both a small and a large country - I refer to Ireland and to India.
Of course Daves future plans may be affected by the possibility of a general election before 2020 which is possible despite Fixed Parliament. If Daves government lost a future vote ofconfidence, I do not think he could stand in ensuing GE and party would have to anoint a successor or he may realise in advance his government may fall and he may retire before the embarrassment of the loss of vote of confidence.
24.3.15 LAB 292 (291) CON 271(271) LD 30(30) UKIP 2(3) Others 55(55) (Ed is crap is PM)
Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 43 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
You just have to look at the LD numbers to realise the irrelevancy.
Slightly surprised by Cameron's announcement. Only relevant really if he wins (or the Miliband-led government is very unstable).
Also the rush of Conservative leaders in the early 2000's is unusual.
To be tracked...
another miliband wheel fallen off his bandwagon
My model doesn't do trends. It is based on current polling so it is a prediction of what would happen if there was an election today.
Cancer is a ticking time bomb of public anger in the UK. It's such a total deception - look at that poor boy the NHS were basically set to watch die, brought back to health in Romania of all places. Little wonder they wanted the parents arrested and the boy dragged back to his death bed. People are ceasing to believe in terminal cancer, and nor should they.
If the Conservatives are still in government after the election then the media will try to give us a four-year long Conservative leadership campaign. I think this reflects badly on the British media, rather than Cameron, but he would have done us all a favour to keep his intention not to serve a third term to himself.
I also expected interest rates to be rising by now on the back of stronger growth. Once again I underestimated the deflationary pressures but at least I am consistently wrong!
The management of Osborne and Mark Carney over these last several years is arguably the finest we have seen over a sustained period for at least 50 years.
But it's the envy of the world!
Perhaps the dancing nurses at the Olympic opening ceremony, should have been replaced with whirling Undertakers.
Healthy growth, plummeting unemployment and zero inflation. It's a tragedy that people can't just vote Coalition.
Viva La Coalition!
One of the known knowns is that I know I know little about macro economics.
Between Cameron and Miliband, just 9.
That relative differential doesn't suggest the presidential style campaign the Tories are haplessly indulging in is going ot have any effect.
But I did not see that at the time. It has been an incredible achievement and brilliantly calibrated.