Rachel Reeves taking a well deserved piss-take on twitter at the moment.
Scottish Labour @scottishlabour · 32m32 minutes ago .@RachelReevesMP: "We can’t afford a decade of injustice. Only a vote for Labour can get the Tories out."
That was never the claim. The claim was that the NHS were denying treatment that would have allow this boy's quality of life to not be damaged by broad radiation. No one has explained why, when the NHS are planning to build their own proton therapy centres, they denied this family on the basis that it would be ineffective.
Defenders such as yourself have continually failed to address this point.
It was the claim used by a poster below. Do keep up.
I have addressed that point, as a non-expert, many times. There are many different forms of cancer, tumours etc, and surely what you want is a smorgasbord of treatments that can be used, individually or in combination, to treat each individual in the best way for them. Cheomotherapy, radiotherapy, proton beam, drugs, etc.
In the case of Ashya King, the hospital decided the best approach was to use a certain treatment. The parents disagreed. I have no idea who was right, or even if there was a 'right' answer. Neither do you.
The NHS already offers the treatment, sending patients abroad (e.g. the US) for it, so it is not as if the NHS are automatically against it.
'Defenders' of the parents such as yourself (if you insist on using such stupid terms) have no idea about the reality of his condition, or which treatment was best.
The major problem with macro economics today is trying to cope with internationalisation and the virtual end of closed systems on which models are based.
The result is that a lot of the Keynesian tool bag no longer works. So if you increase demand (which BenM claims has been weak) you can simply suck in more imports (as we have done to a depressing extent) rather than increasing the demand for goods or services provided from here. In the 1930s this was a relatively minor consideration but today it is huge. This country with years of weak demand is running a trade deficit of over 5% of GDP.
Another example is employment. Freedom of movement within the EU has made the supply of labour incredibly elastic. This has resulted in astonishing increases in employment not generating any shortage of supply for labour and hence almost no increase in real wages.
What governments are trying to do is manage the economy with tools that work less and less with the result that the distortions caused by their actions have to be ever larger to achieve the desired effect.
What does a government do in these situations?
The most obvious answers are to focus very specifically on the factors that make it attractive to trade, build, supply from here rather than somewhere else. The government has done some of that with a more competitive CT rate, with the patent box, by seeking to build on the existing success of London, by challenging the complacent incompetence in our education systems (outwith the very top who are well provided for) and by encouraging locals to seek work rather than depend on benefits by making their personal gains more clear cut.
Where I think they have struggled (partly because of the horrendous fiscal situation that they inherited) is infrastructure investment whether providing new roads, new runways, new housing, faster broadband etc. If UK plc is to thrive in the remainder of this century this will become ever more important. Our politicians don't talk nearly enough about this.
The major problem with macro economics today is trying to cope with internationalisation and the virtual end of closed systems on which models are based.
The result is that a lot of the Keynesian tool bag no longer works. So if you increase demand (which BenM claims has been weak) you can simply suck in more imports (as we have done to a depressing extent) rather than increasing the demand for goods or services provided from here. In the 1930s this was a relatively minor consideration but today it is huge. This country with years of weak demand is running a trade deficit of over 5% of GDP.
Another example is employment. Freedom of movement within the EU has made the supply of labour incredibly elastic. This has resulted in astonishing increases in employment not generating any shortage of supply for labour and hence almost no increase in real wages.
What governments are trying to do is manage the economy with tools that work less and less with the result that the distortions caused by their actions have to be ever larger to achieve the desired effect.
What does a government do in these situations?
The most obvious answers are to focus very specifically on the factors that make it attractive to trade, build, supply from here rather than somewhere else. The government has done some of that with a more competitive CT rate, with the patent box, by seeking to build on the existing success of London, by challenging the complacent incompetence in our education systems (outwith the very top who are well provided for) and by encouraging locals to seek work rather than depend on benefits by making their personal gains more clear cut.
Where I think they have struggled (partly because of the horrendous fiscal situation that they inherited) is infrastructure investment whether providing new roads, new runways, new housing, faster broadband etc. If UK plc is to thrive in the remainder of this century this will become ever more important. Our politicians don't talk nearly enough about this.
DavidL - prize for the most clear, succinct assessment of our economy ever.
TGOHF - sounds as though you got one of the national Labour letters. Both major parties (and perhaps others) are sending out lots of these to selected voters (based on canvassing and/or demographics), and unlike localised letters they can carry on up to polling day without any impact on local spending limits - it's a well-known gap in the spending limit rules (like billboards and central phone canvassing).
But it's puzzling how little you're getting. An average Broxtowe voter will by now have had 5-6 letters and leaflets (from different parties) and a couple of phone calls. What's happening in other close marginals?
If the NHS is building its own proton thingies, why doesn't it have arrangements with foreign health care services to use theirs in the interim.
It does.
(from before the King case):
The other alternative – mostly for adults and children with brain tumours – is to head abroad for proton therapy. It’s important to point out that at the moment, there’s a lack of good evidence to show that most people who get proton therapy abroad will do better than those who get conventional treatment here in the UK.
Those who do travel for treatment go to the US. There are two US centres used by NHS patients – the University of Florida Proton Therapy Institute in Jacksonville and the ProCure Proton Therapy Centre in Oklahoma City.
TGOHF - sounds as though you got one of the national Labour letters. Both major parties (and perhaps others) are sending out lots of these to selected voters (based on canvassing and/or demographics), and unlike localised letters they can carry on up to polling day without any impact on local spending limits - it's a well-known gap in the spending limit rules (like billboards and central phone canvassing).
But it's puzzling how little you're getting. An average Broxtowe voter will by now have had 5-6 letters and leaflets (from different parties) and a couple of phone calls. What's happening in other close marginals?
To be honest I would have thought cold calling marginal constituents could be a disastrous strategy. People are so fed up with being pestered by telesales and the like that any party cold calling people might induce them to vote for their opponents.
I object to 0% inflation 2 years into what is supposed to be a recovery.
So you've changed your tune, then? I seem to recall, when I asked which government in the developed world you thought had actually done better than Osborne, that you first tried to evade the question and then, when pressed, reluctantly pointed to the free-market, über-capitalist, hire-and-fire US as the best model. I take it you now object to their inflation figures too?
If the NHS is building its own proton thingies, why doesn't it have arrangements with foreign health care services to use theirs in the interim.
It does.
(from before the King case):
The other alternative – mostly for adults and children with brain tumours – is to head abroad for proton therapy. It’s important to point out that at the moment, there’s a lack of good evidence to show that most people who get proton therapy abroad will do better than those who get conventional treatment here in the UK.
Those who do travel for treatment go to the US. There are two US centres used by NHS patients – the University of Florida Proton Therapy Institute in Jacksonville and the ProCure Proton Therapy Centre in Oklahoma City.
"The Coalition is full of boom and Ed Miliband is bust."
I'm surprised with all the psephologists here assembled no one has spotted the gaping hole in your ARSE. As it's impossible for you to be doing your own constituency polling you must be working off the readings of other published pollsters.
But in the last week there weren't any and according to ELBOW Labour have inched ahead.
So how is it possible to extrapolate the loss of Enfield from that data?
I know your reputation is based on some stunning US predictions but there every state was measured daily. I worry your UK efforts might be less psephology and rather more Gypsy Rose-lee
My dear Roger
I fear you misunderstand the full workings of my ARSE and indeed why shouldn't you as you are an ARSE denier who has never warmed to its mighty prediction qualities
My ARSE isn't a nowcast based on the most recent polling but a projection for 7th May based on a whole range of political, economic, demographic and other social data. Opinion polls are weighted according to past performance, house effect and other factors.
Enfield North has moved back and forth between "Likely LAB Gain" and TCTC over the last several months. Will it be the 2015 version of Basildon in 1992? .... Perhaps so.
Where I think they have struggled (partly because of the horrendous fiscal situation that they inherited) is infrastructure investment whether providing new roads, new runways, new housing, faster broadband etc. If UK plc is to thrive in the remainder of this century this will become ever more important. Our politicians don't talk nearly enough about this.
TGOHF - sounds as though you got one of the national Labour letters. Both major parties (and perhaps others) are sending out lots of these to selected voters (based on canvassing and/or demographics), and unlike localised letters they can carry on up to polling day without any impact on local spending limits - it's a well-known gap in the spending limit rules (like billboards and central phone canvassing).
But it's puzzling how little you're getting. An average Broxtowe voter will by now have had 5-6 letters and leaflets (from different parties) and a couple of phone calls. What's happening in other close marginals?
Cambridge not as marginal as Broxtowe it seems - perhaps Labour wisely spending their money where it might count.
"The Coalition is full of boom and Ed Miliband is bust."
I'm surprised with all the psephologists here assembled no one has spotted the gaping hole in your ARSE. As it's impossible for you to be doing your own constituency polling you must be working off the readings of other published pollsters.
But in the last week there weren't any and according to ELBOW Labour have inched ahead.
So how is it possible to extrapolate the loss of Enfield from that data?
I know your reputation is based on some stunning US predictions but there every state was measured daily. I worry your UK efforts might be less psephology and rather more Gypsy Rose-lee
My dear Roger
I fear you misunderstand the full workings of my ARSE and indeed why shouldn't you as you are an ARSE denier who has never warmed to its mighty prediction qualities
My ARSE isn't a nowcast based on the most recent polling but a projection for 7th May based on a whole range of political, economic, demographic and other social data. Opinion polls are weighted according to past performance, house effect and other factors.
Enfield North has moved back and forth between "Likely LAB Gain" and TCTC over the last several months. Will it be the 2015 version of Basildon in 1992? .... Perhaps so.
If CON Hold Enfield North, Dave is romping to victory - that's for sure.
TGOHF - sounds as though you got one of the national Labour letters. Both major parties (and perhaps others) are sending out lots of these to selected voters (based on canvassing and/or demographics), and unlike localised letters they can carry on up to polling day without any impact on local spending limits - it's a well-known gap in the spending limit rules (like billboards and central phone canvassing).
But it's puzzling how little you're getting. An average Broxtowe voter will by now have had 5-6 letters and leaflets (from different parties) and a couple of phone calls. What's happening in other close marginals?
We live in a nominal marginal (Warwick & Leamington) though it's not that marginal, despite being Labour until the last GE. We have had one Labour flyer through the door about a fortnight ago and a regular newsletter from the LibDems. There's been nothing else from anyone. Maybe all the parties have decided that the Tories are going to win here and resources are going elsewhere.
Where I think they have struggled (partly because of the horrendous fiscal situation that they inherited) is infrastructure investment whether providing new roads, new runways, new housing, faster broadband etc. If UK plc is to thrive in the remainder of this century this will become ever more important. Our politicians don't talk nearly enough about this.
Feedback was quite good, though I did get a couple of "Too long, not read" replies too.
There are a lot of similarities. You say:
"the first question for any policy should be “Will this affect our long-term economic viability?” This in turn needs to be linked to fairness – people will tolerate the effects of restructuring if they can see that they are being looked after as well."
The first question is the real question of substance.
The second question is how politicians sell the answer to the first question. They must find ways of doing it that do not mean that any benefit is lost.
For me, that is what politics should really be about. We obsess with froth when there is so much work to do.
Considering that Islington South & Finsbury will probably have a Labour majority of several thousand following the collapse of the Lib Dems, Emily Thornberry has been assiduous in keeping in touch with her constituents.
However I feel your Labour "Gain" considerations are somewhat like England winning the Cricket World Cup - an utter fantasy with Ed Miliband failing even to get out of the Group Stage.
Jack - can I have some of whatever you're on?
The Tories are heading for a clear defeat, caught in a pincer movement between Labour and UKIP, and languishing at 33-34% in the polls, and about to be screwed by an electoral system and boundaries that help Labour. Unless UKIP recedes well into single figures, there's no hope.
And I can't see why UKIP would collapse in the next 6 weeks.
Which makes all the talk about Dave quitting before 2020 all the more risible. He clearly will quit before 2020 - I reckon some time around the second week in May, 2015!
The consensus in the office is that Dave is a bit ponceyboots Gaylord for only having two Shredded Wheat.
But we all know he's going to be PM after May.
Very left wing office I work in
I don't believe Dave eats ANY quantity of Shredded Wheat, any more than I believe Ed only ever uses his "tea and snacks" kitchen.
Surely he breakfasts on some sort of poncey natural granola cereal from that overpriced Cotswolds farm shop down the road, followed by some toasted artisan bread?
"The Coalition is full of boom and Ed Miliband is bust."
I'm surprised with all the psephologists here assembled no one has spotted the gaping hole in your ARSE. As it's impossible for you to be doing your own constituency polling you must be working off the readings of other published pollsters.
But in the last week there weren't any and according to ELBOW Labour have inched ahead.
So how is it possible to extrapolate the loss of Enfield from that data?
My dear Roger
I fear you misunderstand the full workings of my ARSE and indeed why shouldn't you as you are an ARSE denier who has never warmed to its mighty prediction qualities
Enfield North has moved back and forth between "Likely LAB Gain" and TCTC over the last several months. Will it be the 2015 version of Basildon in 1992? .... Perhaps so.
If CON Hold Enfield North, Dave is romping to victory - that's for sure.
"The Coalition is full of boom and Ed Miliband is bust."
I'm surprised with all the psephologists here assembled no one has spotted the gaping hole in your ARSE. As it's impossible for you to be doing your own constituency polling you must be working off the readings of other published pollsters.
But in the last week there weren't any and according to ELBOW Labour have inched ahead.
So how is it possible to extrapolate the loss of Enfield from that data?
I know your reputation is based on some stunning US predictions but there every state was measured daily. I worry your UK efforts might be less psephology and rather more Gypsy Rose-lee
My dear Roger
I fear you misunderstand the full workings of my ARSE and indeed why shouldn't you as you are an ARSE denier who has never warmed to its mighty prediction qualities
My ARSE isn't a nowcast based on the most recent polling but a projection for 7th May based on a whole range of political, economic, demographic and other social data. Opinion polls are weighted according to past performance, house effect and other factors.
Enfield North has moved back and forth between "Likely LAB Gain" and TCTC over the last several months. Will it be the 2015 version of Basildon in 1992? .... Perhaps so.
If CON Hold Enfield North, Dave is romping to victory - that's for sure.
Enfield North hasn't appeared as a "Likely Con Hold" and although presently TCTC the full projection today has the seat as a very narrow Lab GAIN.
Today the forecast for 7th May shows a few Con losses to Lab and Ukip balanced by some gains from the LibDems and a net gain of 4 seats on 2010. Not quite "romping".
Where I think they have struggled (partly because of the horrendous fiscal situation that they inherited) is infrastructure investment whether providing new roads, new runways, new housing, faster broadband etc. If UK plc is to thrive in the remainder of this century this will become ever more important. Our politicians don't talk nearly enough about this.
Feedback was quite good, though I did get a couple of "Too long, not read" replies too.
Thanks for sharing!
I thought it balanced and persuasive - while I think Cameron "gets" globalisation, I've yet to see (or perhaps haven't been paying attention) that Miliband does - but it's clearly the "elephant in the room" at this (and the next twenty) elections.
On behalf of nitpickers everywhere, perhaps point 3 might be more persuasive if it included "influence on your behalf" - voters are suspicious enough of politicians self aggrandisement without needlessly adding to their (in your case it would appear unfounded) fears.
Where I think they have struggled (partly because of the horrendous fiscal situation that they inherited) is infrastructure investment whether providing new roads, new runways, new housing, faster broadband etc. If UK plc is to thrive in the remainder of this century this will become ever more important. Our politicians don't talk nearly enough about this.
And I can't see why UKIP would collapse in the next 6 weeks.
Obviously not been following ARSE nor ELBOW
The drop is already underway.
Note this isn't a new poll but a release of supplementaries from last week's poll
TNS Poll: Signs UKIP support may fall ahead of election
London – 24 March – Whilst the latest TNS voting intentions poll has UKIP in third place with support at 17%, there is evidence that the tide is turning against UKIP and that their support may fall away ahead of the election. In particular, the importance of immigration as a public priority has been falling over the last six months and the public’s rating of Nigel Farage is becoming less positive. The new poll by TNS UK also reveals that support for UKIP is softer than for Labour and Conservatives, with fewer of their supporters saying they will definitely vote for them.
The number one policy priority for the British public is healthcare, which has been the case since October 2014. Generating economic growth and reducing unemployment are the second and third policy priorities.
The latest research also shows that immigration is reducing in importance to the general public. Immigration is ranked fourth on the TNS Public Policy Priority Index far behind the top three issues, having peaked in importance at the end of 2014. As recently as November last year, immigration was joint second with economic growth and reducing unemployment and only just behind investing more in healthcare. However, since then its importance has decreased markedly and it is now almost level with education.
"You only have to look at the mass of Dave-centred glossy literature being pushed through letter boxes in the key marginals at the moment to realise how important Cameron is to the campaign."
NE Derbyshire is not a marginal to my mind, but I know it is part of the 40:40 strategy.
Not a mention of Dave on my doorstep literature.
How much literature have you had? A thread on our various experiences might be interesting, to see what the parties are doing in different kinds of seat. In my patch, most people have now had several Labour and Tory leaflets and one UKIP one, but nothing from LibDems (no candidae yet) or Greens. There's also a lot of phoning going on - I spoke to one fed-up guy on Sunday who said Anna had called him 5 minutes earlier and Cameron had called him (presumably an automated recorded message) last week, and "the bloody campaign hasn't even started yet".
Just the two, like I said I've heard its part of the 40:40 but I don't believe it's possible for Labour to lose the seat no matter how bad a night you have.
I think it is very possible and the Conservatives locally are quietly confident as they are in Amber Valley. Jack's TCTC looks right to me.
I could see this being somewhere that a strong UKIP showing could hurt Labour more than the Tories. Maybe that is what they are seeing and giving this quiet confidence. If so, I could also see it being a factor in the north of Nick's constituency - Kimberley and Eastwood. Not something that Nick has acknowledged, however.
I object to 0% inflation 2 years into what is supposed to be a recovery.
So you've changed your tune, then? I seem to recall, when I asked which government in the developed world you thought had actually done better than Osborne, that you first tried to evade the question and then, when pressed, reluctantly pointed to the free-market, über-capitalist, hire-and-fire US as the best model. I take it you now object to their inflation figures too?
The US isn't two years into a recovery.
Indeed, it's slightly further along the road, so Ben should object even more strongly, if he were being consistent.
Actually, scrub that: he's extremely consistent. He consistently works backwards from his irrational dislike of Osborne.
About the plane crash that will bury the election campaign for a few days, looking at flight24's data the plane started to lose altitude right after a turn as it passed Marseilles, the plane continued to lose altitude gradually without it performing any turns or maneuvers until it crashed straight into the alps.
I'm amazed that the pilots didn't issue an emergency call until just before it crashed because the apparent problem started earlier, perhaps they didn't realize that there were losing altitude.
About the plane crash that will bury the election campaign for a few days, looking at flight24's data the plane started to lose altitude right after a turn as it passed Marseilles, the plane continued to lose altitude gradually without it performing any turns or maneuvers until it crashed straight into the alps.
I'm amazed that the pilots didn't issue an emergency call until just before it crashed because the apparent problem started earlier, perhaps they didn't realize that there were losing altitude.
TGOHF - sounds as though you got one of the national Labour letters. Both major parties (and perhaps others) are sending out lots of these to selected voters (based on canvassing and/or demographics), and unlike localised letters they can carry on up to polling day without any impact on local spending limits - it's a well-known gap in the spending limit rules (like billboards and central phone canvassing).
But it's puzzling how little you're getting. An average Broxtowe voter will by now have had 5-6 letters and leaflets (from different parties) and a couple of phone calls. What's happening in other close marginals?
We live in a nominal marginal (Warwick & Leamington) though it's not that marginal, despite being Labour until the last GE. We have had one Labour flyer through the door about a fortnight ago and a regular newsletter from the LibDems. There's been nothing else from anyone. Maybe all the parties have decided that the Tories are going to win here and resources are going elsewhere.
I cast my first ever GE vote in May 97 in Warwick & Leamington, where I was living as a student.
Coming from a safe Labour stronghold (though currently Lib Dem until 7th May), I was pleased to cast a Tory GE vote in a safe Tory stronghold, even though it was clear the Tories were going to be hounded out in a Labour landslide nationally.
I was more astonished that W&L went Labour than by the scale of Blair's win!
Here we have the Tories claiming something they predicted couldn't and wouldn't happen - ie. deflation - is now an example of their success!
You couldn't make it up.
0% inflation in a recovery? That's a canary in a coalmine not an opportunity to wave pom-poms.
Ben - I'm ready for the litmus test - is 0% inflation a good or bad thing for the country ?
BJO says its a disaster to be in deflation.
Bad - indicates weak demand,
But according to Rosaree it is totally due to the slump in oil price - and we are all borrowing too much to spend on credit apparently - and yet demand is weak.
How can they all be true ?
We've had weak demand throughout the entirety of this parliament.
Inflation has masked this considerably due to external influences - firstly in positive direction thanks to commodities, then back down again thanks to Oil.
Growth has come latterly thanks to input of labour, mainly numbers of migrant workers, and Osborne abandoning plan A in 2012.
Go on then Ben. What level of inflation do you consider would do Osborne credit?
You don't like 0.0% and I imagine you wouldn't like 30.0%. What number would you like, and why?
Go and uncritically wave your blue pom poms somewhere else. We're talking economics here.
No you aren't. You flatter yourself. You are cretinously hooting Labour yobbo football chants, and other guff that you've heard elsewhere without understanding and have credulously and uncritically swallowed whole.
Let's focus on what was asked. You objected to 0% inflation. Very well, what level of inflation would do Osborne credit? What level would you concede was a job well done?
If you can't name any such level why are you objecting to 0% and then wriggling like a salted slug when you're called on it? Are you some sort of slogan-parrotting buffoon?
I object to 0% inflation 2 years into what is supposed to be a recovery. If you cannot fathom why, stop doing little twirls and cartwheels and waving your pom poms about everything Tory and go and find out something about the macro economy.
Evasion noted. Christ, Ben, it's not hard.
So you reckon 0.0% is too low. OK. Let's work with that. What level higher than 0% is right? What level would make you say, Well done, George - neither too low, nor so high as to create a cost of living crisis either. 'Arrows George - you nailed it.
What sort of level would that be?
It's a very straightforward question you seem oddly anxious not to answer.
Enfield North hasn't appeared as a "Likely Con Hold" and although presently TCTC the full projection today has the seat as a very narrow Lab GAIN.
Today the forecast for 7th May shows a few Con losses to Lab and Ukip balanced by some gains from the LibDems and a net gain of 4 seats on 2010. Not quite "romping".
If one ignores Scotland Jack - what is the approximate number of seats it is predicting to change hands in May ? Can't be more than 50.
However I feel your Labour "Gain" considerations are somewhat like England winning the Cricket World Cup - an utter fantasy with Ed Miliband failing even to get out of the Group Stage.
Jack - can I have some of whatever you're on?
The Tories are heading for a clear defeat, caught in a pincer movement between Labour and UKIP, and languishing at 33-34% in the polls, and about to be screwed by an electoral system and boundaries that help Labour. Unless UKIP recedes well into single figures, there's no hope.
And I can't see why UKIP would collapse in the next 6 weeks.
Which makes all the talk about Dave quitting before 2020 all the more risible. He clearly will quit before 2020 - I reckon some time around the second week in May, 2015.
You could have something of whatever I'm on if you had a fine cellar and a decent vintner.
Sadly Bob you are the Tory PB Jonah par excellence. You remind me of the ad for "skittles" where the chap at the desk touches anything and it descends into a pile of sweeties, except in your case you feel all the Conservatives touch turns another of their marginal seats into a Labour gain.
With regret I'm forced to conclude you have the predictive qualities of Rogerdamus. Are you related ?
Enfield North hasn't appeared as a "Likely Con Hold" and although presently TCTC the full projection today has the seat as a very narrow Lab GAIN.
Today the forecast for 7th May shows a few Con losses to Lab and Ukip balanced by some gains from the LibDems and a net gain of 4 seats on 2010. Not quite "romping".
If one ignores Scotland Jack - what is the approximate number of seats it is predicting to change hands in May ? Can't be more than 50.
10 LibDem losses to Labour 10 LibDem losses to the Conservatives 3-6 Con losses to UKIP (assuming Rochester, Clacton, and Thanet count as losses) xx other
It is doubtful that the electoral system will benefit Labour more than the Conservatives in a scenario where they lose all but a handful of seats in Scotland to the SNP. I suspect at the next election the SNP will most benefit from FPTP, followed by the Conservatives, followed by Labour, followed by the Liberal Democrats, with the UK Independence Party being the most disadvantaged.
I am now expecting a hung parliament with the Conservatives on most seats, but Labour forming a left-wing coalition. David Cameron made a lot of needed changes to the party, but his leadership has been a one wheeled chariot. He did a good job of reaching out economically centre-right, socially liberal voters, but has done a very poor job at even holding on to the economically centre-left, socially conservative voters we already had.
Those of us that live in UKIP's heartlands in Essex and Kent had been warning for years that the UKIP threat was a serious one, yet the leadership always failed to listen. When they finally woke up to the threat, they instead decided to publicly shame UKIP-sympathetic voters by calling them racist. That might work among the Chipping Norton types, but it only cements working class votes into the UKIP column. Even now, you see many Conservatives attempting to follow the same playbook that has failed to reduce the UKIP threat for the last two years.
Mere talk won't work either: these voters no longer trust mainstream politicians so don't believe them when they make promises. What they need to see is action: immigration coming down, expense cheats in parliament jailed, the local yobs down the street being brought under control. Unfortunately, actions like the vote yesterday, where parliament refused to give protection for whistleblowers on child abuse, just gives off the image that it's the same old establishment voting to protect their own backsides. Just like when they voted themselves pay rises, it makes it so much harder for volunteers to win people round on the doorstep, but they can't seem to stop themselves.
Enfield North hasn't appeared as a "Likely Con Hold" and although presently TCTC the full projection today has the seat as a very narrow Lab GAIN.
Today the forecast for 7th May shows a few Con losses to Lab and Ukip balanced by some gains from the LibDems and a net gain of 4 seats on 2010. Not quite "romping".
If one ignores Scotland Jack - what is the approximate number of seats it is predicting to change hands in May ? Can't be more than 50.
Excluding Scotland and Northern Ireland the number presently is under 45
About the plane crash that will bury the election campaign for a few days, looking at flight24's data the plane started to lose altitude right after a turn as it passed Marseilles, the plane continued to lose altitude gradually without it performing any turns or maneuvers until it crashed straight into the alps.
I'm amazed that the pilots didn't issue an emergency call until just before it crashed because the apparent problem started earlier, perhaps they didn't realize that there were losing altitude.
1. Aviate 2. Navigate 3. Communicate
In that order...
It crashed on the mountainside with a speed of 400kts, just slightly less than cruising speed with no change in course throughout the descent like they had no control over any of the plane's functions or they didn't realize that it was descending.
They would have at least tried to steer the plane away from the alps and towards the nearest airport, but the plane didn't change direction.
Daily Mail Online @MailOnline 59m59 minutes ago Germanwings flight A320 plunged 31,200 feet in just ten minutes, according to radar data http://dailym.ai/1xutzOo
Enfield North hasn't appeared as a "Likely Con Hold" and although presently TCTC the full projection today has the seat as a very narrow Lab GAIN.
Today the forecast for 7th May shows a few Con losses to Lab and Ukip balanced by some gains from the LibDems and a net gain of 4 seats on 2010. Not quite "romping".
If one ignores Scotland Jack - what is the approximate number of seats it is predicting to change hands in May ? Can't be more than 50.
10 LibDem losses to Labour 10 LibDem losses to the Conservatives 3-6 Con losses to UKIP (assuming Rochester, Clacton, and Thanet count as losses) xx other
Enfield North hasn't appeared as a "Likely Con Hold" and although presently TCTC the full projection today has the seat as a very narrow Lab GAIN.
Today the forecast for 7th May shows a few Con losses to Lab and Ukip balanced by some gains from the LibDems and a net gain of 4 seats on 2010. Not quite "romping".
If one ignores Scotland Jack - what is the approximate number of seats it is predicting to change hands in May ? Can't be more than 50.
10 LibDem losses to Labour 10 LibDem losses to the Conservatives 3-6 Con losses to UKIP (assuming Rochester, Clacton, and Thanet count as losses) xx other
Enfield North hasn't appeared as a "Likely Con Hold" and although presently TCTC the full projection today has the seat as a very narrow Lab GAIN.
Today the forecast for 7th May shows a few Con losses to Lab and Ukip balanced by some gains from the LibDems and a net gain of 4 seats on 2010. Not quite "romping".
If one ignores Scotland Jack - what is the approximate number of seats it is predicting to change hands in May ? Can't be more than 50.
10 LibDem losses to Labour 10 LibDem losses to the Conservatives 3-6 Con losses to UKIP (assuming Rochester, Clacton, and Thanet count as losses) xx other
Enfield North hasn't appeared as a "Likely Con Hold" and although presently TCTC the full projection today has the seat as a very narrow Lab GAIN.
Today the forecast for 7th May shows a few Con losses to Lab and Ukip balanced by some gains from the LibDems and a net gain of 4 seats on 2010. Not quite "romping".
If one ignores Scotland Jack - what is the approximate number of seats it is predicting to change hands in May ? Can't be more than 50.
Excluding Scotland and Northern Ireland the number presently is under 45
So around 8% of non Scot seats - not many ! On the flip side it could be 80% of seats North of the border !
Enfield North hasn't appeared as a "Likely Con Hold" and although presently TCTC the full projection today has the seat as a very narrow Lab GAIN.
Today the forecast for 7th May shows a few Con losses to Lab and Ukip balanced by some gains from the LibDems and a net gain of 4 seats on 2010. Not quite "romping".
If one ignores Scotland Jack - what is the approximate number of seats it is predicting to change hands in May ? Can't be more than 50.
10 LibDem losses to Labour 10 LibDem losses to the Conservatives 3-6 Con losses to UKIP (assuming Rochester, Clacton, and Thanet count as losses) xx other
Enfield North hasn't appeared as a "Likely Con Hold" and although presently TCTC the full projection today has the seat as a very narrow Lab GAIN.
Today the forecast for 7th May shows a few Con losses to Lab and Ukip balanced by some gains from the LibDems and a net gain of 4 seats on 2010. Not quite "romping".
If one ignores Scotland Jack - what is the approximate number of seats it is predicting to change hands in May ? Can't be more than 50.
10 LibDem losses to Labour 10 LibDem losses to the Conservatives 3-6 Con losses to UKIP (assuming Rochester, Clacton, and Thanet count as losses) xx other
No Con/Lab exchange of seats ??
That is xx other
Also, don't forget Watford...
How could I forget Watford .... you father hasn't since 2010.
Enfield North hasn't appeared as a "Likely Con Hold" and although presently TCTC the full projection today has the seat as a very narrow Lab GAIN.
Today the forecast for 7th May shows a few Con losses to Lab and Ukip balanced by some gains from the LibDems and a net gain of 4 seats on 2010. Not quite "romping".
If one ignores Scotland Jack - what is the approximate number of seats it is predicting to change hands in May ? Can't be more than 50.
10 LibDem losses to Labour 10 LibDem losses to the Conservatives 3-6 Con losses to UKIP (assuming Rochester, Clacton, and Thanet count as losses) xx other
About the plane crash that will bury the election campaign for a few days, looking at flight24's data the plane started to lose altitude right after a turn as it passed Marseilles, the plane continued to lose altitude gradually without it performing any turns or maneuvers until it crashed straight into the alps.
I'm amazed that the pilots didn't issue an emergency call until just before it crashed because the apparent problem started earlier, perhaps they didn't realize that there were losing altitude.
1. Aviate 2. Navigate 3. Communicate
In that order...
It crashed on the mountainside with a speed of 400kts, just slightly less than cruising speed with no change in course throughout the descent like they had no control over any of the plane's functions or they didn't realize that it was descending.
They would have at least tried to steer the plane away from the alps and towards the nearest airport, but the plane didn't change direction.
Daily Mail Online @MailOnline 59m59 minutes ago Germanwings flight A320 plunged 31,200 feet in just ten minutes, according to radar data http://dailym.ai/1xutzOo
Sounds like plane had a mind of its own. Autopilot failure
Enfield North hasn't appeared as a "Likely Con Hold" and although presently TCTC the full projection today has the seat as a very narrow Lab GAIN.
Today the forecast for 7th May shows a few Con losses to Lab and Ukip balanced by some gains from the LibDems and a net gain of 4 seats on 2010. Not quite "romping".
If one ignores Scotland Jack - what is the approximate number of seats it is predicting to change hands in May ? Can't be more than 50.
10 LibDem losses to Labour 10 LibDem losses to the Conservatives 3-6 Con losses to UKIP (assuming Rochester, Clacton, and Thanet count as losses) xx other
No Con/Lab exchange of seats ??
That is xx other
I thought you were sending kisses to TGOHF.
Tips only thank you
Don't be so coy.
Many admirers of my ARSE go on bended knee to kiss hands with me although I draw the line at any untoward familiarity in another direction.
Enfield North hasn't appeared as a "Likely Con Hold" and although presently TCTC the full projection today has the seat as a very narrow Lab GAIN.
Today the forecast for 7th May shows a few Con losses to Lab and Ukip balanced by some gains from the LibDems and a net gain of 4 seats on 2010. Not quite "romping".
If one ignores Scotland Jack - what is the approximate number of seats it is predicting to change hands in May ? Can't be more than 50.
10 LibDem losses to Labour 10 LibDem losses to the Conservatives 3-6 Con losses to UKIP (assuming Rochester, Clacton, and Thanet count as losses) xx other
No Con/Lab exchange of seats ??
That is xx other
I thought you were sending kisses to TGOHF.
Tips only thank you
Don't be so coy.
Many admirers of my ARSE go on bended knee to kiss hands with me although I draw the line at any untoward familiarity in another direction.
The term "kiss my arse" springs to mind !!
I have doubled down on Huppert in recent months based on your Arse's outpourings we both might get lucky yet...
Enfield North hasn't appeared as a "Likely Con Hold" and although presently TCTC the full projection today has the seat as a very narrow Lab GAIN.
Today the forecast for 7th May shows a few Con losses to Lab and Ukip balanced by some gains from the LibDems and a net gain of 4 seats on 2010. Not quite "romping".
If one ignores Scotland Jack - what is the approximate number of seats it is predicting to change hands in May ? Can't be more than 50.
10 LibDem losses to Labour 10 LibDem losses to the Conservatives 3-6 Con losses to UKIP (assuming Rochester, Clacton, and Thanet count as losses) xx other
No Con/Lab exchange of seats ??
That is xx other
I thought you were sending kisses to TGOHF.
Tips only thank you
Don't be so coy.
Many admirers of my ARSE go on bended knee to kiss hands with me although I draw the line at any untoward familiarity in another direction.
The term "kiss my arse" springs to mind !!
I have doubled down on Huppert in recent months based on your Arse's outpourings we both might get lucky yet...
About the plane crash that will bury the election campaign for a few days, looking at flight24's data the plane started to lose altitude right after a turn as it passed Marseilles, the plane continued to lose altitude gradually without it performing any turns or maneuvers until it crashed straight into the alps.
I'm amazed that the pilots didn't issue an emergency call until just before it crashed because the apparent problem started earlier, perhaps they didn't realize that there were losing altitude.
1. Aviate 2. Navigate 3. Communicate
In that order...
It crashed on the mountainside with a speed of 400kts, just slightly less than cruising speed with no change in course throughout the descent like they had no control over any of the plane's functions or they didn't realize that it was descending.
They would have at least tried to steer the plane away from the alps and towards the nearest airport, but the plane didn't change direction.
Daily Mail Online @MailOnline 59m59 minutes ago Germanwings flight A320 plunged 31,200 feet in just ten minutes, according to radar data http://dailym.ai/1xutzOo
Sounds like plane had a mind of its own. Autopilot failure
However I feel your Labour "Gain" considerations are somewhat like England winning the Cricket World Cup - an utter fantasy with Ed Miliband failing even to get out of the Group Stage.
Jack - can I have some of whatever you're on?
The Tories are heading for a clear defeat, caught in a pincer movement between Labour and UKIP, and languishing at 33-34% in the polls, and about to be screwed by an electoral system and boundaries that help Labour. Unless UKIP recedes well into single figures, there's no hope.
And I can't see why UKIP would collapse in the next 6 weeks.
Which makes all the talk about Dave quitting before 2020 all the more risible. He clearly will quit before 2020 - I reckon some time around the second week in May, 2015!
The consensus in the office is that Dave is a bit ponceyboots Gaylord for only having two Shredded Wheat.
But we all know he's going to be PM after May.
Very left wing office I work in
I don't believe Dave eats ANY quantity of Shredded Wheat, any more than I believe Ed only ever uses his "tea and snacks" kitchen.
Surely he breakfasts on some sort of poncey natural granola cereal from that overpriced Cotswolds farm shop down the road, followed by some toasted artisan bread?
He did not claim to eat shredded wheat, he only quoted their advert. Whats wrong with supporting local shops as opposed to the predatory supermarket chains? Your thick prejudice leads you down endless dead end alleys.
One glossy A2 folded Labour (attacking Lib Dems) One A3 Lib Dem (we are the challengers) One A4 folded UKIP (standard national leaflet with A4 folded St Albans specific insert).
About the plane crash that will bury the election campaign for a few days, looking at flight24's data the plane started to lose altitude right after a turn as it passed Marseilles, the plane continued to lose altitude gradually without it performing any turns or maneuvers until it crashed straight into the alps.
I'm amazed that the pilots didn't issue an emergency call until just before it crashed because the apparent problem started earlier, perhaps they didn't realize that there were losing altitude.
1. Aviate 2. Navigate 3. Communicate
In that order...
It crashed on the mountainside with a speed of 400kts, just slightly less than cruising speed with no change in course throughout the descent like they had no control over any of the plane's functions or they didn't realize that it was descending.
They would have at least tried to steer the plane away from the alps and towards the nearest airport, but the plane didn't change direction.
Daily Mail Online @MailOnline 59m59 minutes ago Germanwings flight A320 plunged 31,200 feet in just ten minutes, according to radar data http://dailym.ai/1xutzOo
Sounds like plane had a mind of its own. Autopilot failure
The plane fell with a steady rate of decent of just over 60km/h with a speed of 500kts which gradually reduced to 400kts as the plane crossed 25000ft probably due to air drag and on a fixed track of 26o, so yes my first thought is a faulty autopilot, since the engines worked (no speed change when the descent started) and with the plane still on it's fixed computer programmed track.
However I feel your Labour "Gain" considerations are somewhat like England winning the Cricket World Cup - an utter fantasy with Ed Miliband failing even to get out of the Group Stage.
Jack - can I have some of whatever you're on?
The Tories are heading for a clear defeat, caught in a pincer movement between Labour and UKIP, and languishing at 33-34% in the polls, and about to be screwed by an electoral system and boundaries that help Labour. Unless UKIP recedes well into single figures, there's no hope.
And I can't see why UKIP would collapse in the next 6 weeks.
Which makes all the talk about Dave quitting before 2020 all the more risible. He clearly will quit before 2020 - I reckon some time around the second week in May, 2015.
You could have something of whatever I'm on if you had a fine cellar and a decent vintner.
Sadly Bob you are the Tory PB Jonah par excellence. You remind me of the ad for "skittles" where the chap at the desk touches anything and it descends into a pile of sweeties, except in your case you feel all the Conservatives touch turns another of their marginal seats into a Labour gain.
With regret I'm forced to conclude you have the predictive qualities of Rogerdamus. Are you related ?
Yes, I was ridiculed as a Jonah during March and April 2010, constantly bemoaning Dave's "coasting along" approach to winning an election campaign, but I got the result pretty much spot on - indeed, "bob on", as we say in these parts... :-)
I see he's coasting again, more focused on rustling up a photogenic spot of Sunday lunch for James Lansdale in his Cotswold country kitchen than thinking about what is emanating from his gob and what impact it has on his chances of victory!
The major problem with macro economics today is trying to cope with internationalisation and the virtual end of closed systems on which models are based.
The result is that a lot of the Keynesian tool bag no longer works. So if you increase demand (which BenM claims has been weak) you can simply suck in more imports (as we have done to a depressing extent) rather than increasing the demand for goods or services provided from here. In the 1930s this was a relatively minor consideration but today it is huge. This country with years of weak demand is running a trade deficit of over 5% of GDP.
Another example is employment. Freedom of movement within the EU has made the supply of labour incredibly elastic. This has resulted in astonishing increases in employment not generating any shortage of supply for labour and hence almost no increase in real wages. [... etc]
Yup, I agree with this.
It's reminiscent of the W. A. Lewis model of development with infinitely elastic supply of labour. In Lewis this was due to movement from subsistence underemployment in agriculture to the urban sector. In the UK now we have the migration from the EU. So the immigration "problem" and the employment success are tied together. We must have policies that attenuate the undoubtably negative social effects of the immigration but which don't impinge on the elasticity of labour supply. In the 60s Charles Kindleberger argued that the German economic "miracle", and also that in continental Europe more widely, could be explained in these terms. Ironic that the Wirtschaftswunder is now working to the UK's advantage.
@Andrew_ComRes: Poll of undecideds for @GMB shows that Tory strategy of focus on economy ranks 4th as deciding factor behind NHS/immigrn/cost of living
@Andrew_ComRes: ComRes poll for @GMB finds more women than men undecided, and among women NHS is overwhelmingly most imp vote-decider in #GE2015
TGOHF - sounds as though you got one of the national Labour letters. Both major parties (and perhaps others) are sending out lots of these to selected voters (based on canvassing and/or demographics), and unlike localised letters they can carry on up to polling day without any impact on local spending limits - it's a well-known gap in the spending limit rules (like billboards and central phone canvassing).
But it's puzzling how little you're getting. An average Broxtowe voter will by now have had 5-6 letters and leaflets (from different parties) and a couple of phone calls. What's happening in other close marginals?
We live in a nominal marginal (Warwick & Leamington) though it's not that marginal, despite being Labour until the last GE. We have had one Labour flyer through the door about a fortnight ago and a regular newsletter from the LibDems. There's been nothing else from anyone. Maybe all the parties have decided that the Tories are going to win here and resources are going elsewhere.
I make it 1200 Lab majority. Quite close. I'm surprised there is not more activity.
TGOHF - sounds as though you got one of the national Labour letters. Both major parties (and perhaps others) are sending out lots of these to selected voters (based on canvassing and/or demographics), and unlike localised letters they can carry on up to polling day without any impact on local spending limits - it's a well-known gap in the spending limit rules (like billboards and central phone canvassing).
But it's puzzling how little you're getting. An average Broxtowe voter will by now have had 5-6 letters and leaflets (from different parties) and a couple of phone calls. What's happening in other close marginals?
We live in a nominal marginal (Warwick & Leamington) though it's not that marginal, despite being Labour until the last GE. We have had one Labour flyer through the door about a fortnight ago and a regular newsletter from the LibDems. There's been nothing else from anyone. Maybe all the parties have decided that the Tories are going to win here and resources are going elsewhere.
I make it 1200 Lab majority. Quite close. I'm surprised there is not more activity.
I think it's an easy enough Con Hold. Warwick and Leamington is Tony's Tories to the eyeballs.
About the plane crash that will bury the election campaign for a few days, looking at flight24's data the plane started to lose altitude right after a turn as it passed Marseilles, the plane continued to lose altitude gradually without it performing any turns or maneuvers until it crashed straight into the alps.
I'm amazed that the pilots didn't issue an emergency call until just before it crashed because the apparent problem started earlier, perhaps they didn't realize that there were losing altitude.
1. Aviate 2. Navigate 3. Communicate
In that order...
It crashed on the mountainside with a speed of 400kts, just slightly less than cruising speed with no change in course throughout the descent like they had no control over any of the plane's functions or they didn't realize that it was descending.
They would have at least tried to steer the plane away from the alps and towards the nearest airport, but the plane didn't change direction.
Daily Mail Online @MailOnline 59m59 minutes ago Germanwings flight A320 plunged 31,200 feet in just ten minutes, according to radar data http://dailym.ai/1xutzOo
Sounds like plane had a mind of its own. Autopilot failure
Sounds scarily like Air France 447.
447 was totally different. It went up and down like a roller coaster as the crew misinterpreted the incorrect data.
Today's crash looks as if the crew were out cold, and the aircraft has simply flown without human interference into a mountain.
@Andrew_ComRes: Poll of undecideds for @GMB shows that Tory strategy of focus on economy ranks 4th as deciding factor behind NHS/immigrn/cost of living
@Andrew_ComRes: ComRes poll for @GMB finds more women than men undecided, and among women NHS is overwhelmingly most imp vote-decider in #GE2015
It is really odd, but I don't think I have ever met anyone who places the NHS as the number 1 issue except on Facebook and from 38 degrees, which aren't physical or tangible acquaintances.
Interesting numbers, as the economy is the overarching issue that dictates the state (funding) of NHS, a key mover on Immigration though job creation and inextricably linked to the Cost of Living. I would say that is a survey that is as clear as mud.
The major problem with macro economics today is trying to cope with internationalisation and the virtual end of closed systems on which models are based.
The result is that a lot of the Keynesian tool bag no longer works. So if you increase demand (which BenM claims has been weak) you can simply suck in more imports (as we have done to a depressing extent) rather than increasing the demand for goods or services provided from here. In the 1930s this was a relatively minor consideration but today it is huge. This country with years of weak demand is running a trade deficit of over 5% of GDP.
Another example is employment. Freedom of movement within the EU has made the supply of labour incredibly elastic. This has resulted in astonishing increases in employment not generating any shortage of supply for labour and hence almost no increase in real wages. [... etc]
Yup, I agree with this.
It's reminiscent of the W. A. Lewis model of development with infinitely elastic supply of labour. In Lewis this was due to movement from subsistence underemployment in agriculture to the urban sector. In the UK now we have the migration from the EU. So the immigration "problem" and the employment success are tied together. We must have policies that attenuate the undoubtably negative social effects of the immigration but which don't impinge on the elasticity of labour supply. In the 60s Charles Kindleberger argued that the German economic "miracle", and also that in continental Europe more widely, could be explained in these terms. Ironic that the Wirtschaftswunder is now working to the UK's advantage.
Agree with a lot said but surely the whole point is to generate rising real wages though. In the long run this is actually beneficial for capital and management anyway.
Plus capital is highly mobile so this makes a lot of old ideas and concepts moot such as comparative advantage or labour 'shortages', production just relocates.
About the plane crash that will bury the election campaign for a few days, looking at flight24's data the plane started to lose altitude right after a turn as it passed Marseilles, the plane continued to lose altitude gradually without it performing any turns or maneuvers until it crashed straight into the alps.
I'm amazed that the pilots didn't issue an emergency call until just before it crashed because the apparent problem started earlier, perhaps they didn't realize that there were losing altitude.
1. Aviate 2. Navigate 3. Communicate
In that order...
It crashed on the mountainside with a speed of 400kts, just slightly less than cruising speed with no change in course throughout the descent like they had no control over any of the plane's functions or they didn't realize that it was descending.
They would have at least tried to steer the plane away from the alps and towards the nearest airport, but the plane didn't change direction.
Daily Mail Online @MailOnline 59m59 minutes ago Germanwings flight A320 plunged 31,200 feet in just ten minutes, according to radar data http://dailym.ai/1xutzOo
Sounds like plane had a mind of its own. Autopilot failure
Sounds scarily like Air France 447.
447 was totally different. It went up and down like a roller coaster as the crew misinterpreted the incorrect data.
Today's crash looks as if the crew were out cold, and the aircraft has simply flown without human interference into a mountain.
447 was an iced pitot tube, wasn't it? Which meant the crew were getting incorrect air speed data.
The funny thing is that pitot tube icing (and turning on heat to prevent it) comes really early in the PPL - by 15 hours, you should know all about it.
Here we have the Tories claiming something they predicted couldn't and wouldn't happen - ie. deflation - is now an example of their success!
You couldn't make it up.
0% inflation in a recovery? That's a canary in a coalmine not an opportunity to wave pom-poms.
Ben - I'm ready for the litmus test - is 0% inflation a good or bad thing for the country ?
BJO says its a disaster to be in deflation.
It's not great. Not a disaster, but not great.
2% inflation, 3% real growth is the goldilocks scenario
Low interest rates and QE have not had the inflationary effects that were suggested or expected. Being realistic the effects have not been inflationary on house prices either. Furthermore we have zero official inflation at the same time as jobs growth falling unemployment and a growing economy. All at a time when banks have been forced to expand their cash reserves. There is still slack in the economy and businesses are sitting on enough reserves of their own so that borrowing for investment should not be a problem. Low interest is hardly an incentive for them to leave them there. Would you say this is a goldilocks scenario?
It is really odd, but I don't think I have ever met anyone who places the NHS as the number 1 issue except on Facebook and from 38 degrees, which aren't physical or tangible acquaintances.
Interesting numbers, as the economy is the overarching issue that dictates the state (funding) of NHS, a key mover on Immigration though job creation and inextricably linked to the Cost of Living. I would say that is a survey that is as clear as mud.
You can see in the Ipsos-Mori issues index that the NHS is not the number one issue.
It only comes to the top when people are asked to name three.
It's also noticeable that the people who are most likely to name it are white, AB, rural/suburban, govt voters.
Oh, and the Welsh. There is a clear spike in Wales where it is named as the top issue.
The economic answers tend to get split across the economy, the cost of living, unemployment/jobs. With the NHS people get the one offering.
If the NHS was divided into GP waiting times, A and E and something else, it would be comparable.
Whatever the precise chances of the poor boy's survival, the whole situation was a terrible abuse of government power. The European Arrest Warrant was used to arrest and hold his parents who were guilty of no crime and suspected of no crime. Suitable limits on the EAW to protect basic rights of individuals should be one of the foremost things on David Cameron's renegotiation list.
I don't want to comment on the specific case, but there is a general dilemma - if the authorities believe that parents are acting against the best interest of a child, there comes a point where they have to intervene to protect the child. I don't think this is even controversial - surely we all agree that if the parents e.g. refuse to let the kid have a vital life-saving injection then they should be told to stand aside.
The question is where to draw the line and how far we allow parents to override clinical judgment (we need to recognise that if they disagree with the doctors, they will sometimes be right but often wrong). It's genuinely difficult, in the same sort of way as decisions on taking children into care are difficult. There are not necessarily any villains involved - everyone is usually anxious to do the best thing for the kid.
State intervention is obviously reasonable in the more extreme cases, but you need very good grounds to justify it. With a situation as obviously a grey area as this one was, it was an outrageous abuse of state power. And that abuse was multiplied by the fact it was done via an arrest warrant that is supposed to be for arresting criminals. Our government increasingly seems to be using powers for purposes other than for which they were created. It was reminiscent of using counter-terrorism powers to kick protesters out of conferences, harass individuals on the street, and freeze Icelandic banking assets.
While we're talking about a lack of state accountability, did you see my question to you about the justification used by those voting down the amendment to give whistle blowers immunity? I can not make head nor tail of parliament's decision there at the moment.
Here we have the Tories claiming something they predicted couldn't and wouldn't happen - ie. deflation - is now an example of their success!
You couldn't make it up.
0% inflation in a recovery? That's a canary in a coalmine not an opportunity to wave pom-poms.
Ben - I'm ready for the litmus test - is 0% inflation a good or bad thing for the country ?
BJO says its a disaster to be in deflation.
It's not great. Not a disaster, but not great.
2% inflation, 3% real growth is the goldilocks scenario
Low interest rates and QE have not had the inflationary effects that were suggested or expected. Being realistic the effects have not been inflationary on house prices either. Furthermore we have zero official inflation at the same time as jobs growth falling unemployment and a growing economy. All at a time when banks have been forced to expand their cash reserves. There is still slack in the economy and businesses are sitting on enough reserves of their own so that borrowing for investment should not be a problem. Low interest is hardly an incentive for them to leave them there. Would you say this is a goldilocks scenario?
Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) 24/03/2015 13:07 I'm delighted to announce our new candidate for #FolkestoneAndHythe – Harriet Yeo, former Labour NEC Chairman, now #UKIP member
Rachel ReevesVerified account @RachelReevesMP 'A @UKLabour govt will scrap the #BedroomTax & @scottishlabour will use the savings for £175 million Scotland Cares fund to tackle poverty'
The funny thing is I know what Reeves actually meant (or why her handlers told her to say this on her Scottish jaunt) - the Scottish Government will have more money available because they currently have to spend money to offset the Spare Room Subsidy (although it's only £45m or so nothing like £175m).
But she still sounds like a moron.
And Labour and this election still has no say in how the Scottish Government choose to reallocate the saving.
This Labour campaign is bizarre. I can't think of a single thing UK Labour or their Scottish Branch has done in the entire campaign so far where I've thought "well played". Everything they touch turns to shite.
Rachel ReevesVerified account @RachelReevesMP 'A @UKLabour govt will scrap the #BedroomTax & @scottishlabour will use the savings for £175 million Scotland Cares fund to tackle poverty'
What feeble lack of ambition. If they scrapped income tax, they could afford to eliminate poverty altogether and give out free owls to all.
'THE leader of the national Green Party has launched an investigation into the conduct of her members at a public meeting which ended when veteran Birkenhead MP Frank Field was rushed to hospital after a shock collapse.
Mr Field wrote to Ms Bennett informing her that five Green Party members had been “going way beyond the sort of behaviour which is regarded as acceptable” and noted that other members of the public found their “activities so offensive that they had been asking them to leave”.
He said that while he was unconscious, one individual tried to take photographs of him, actions which the Birkenhead MP said “greatly upset a lot of people”.
Mr Field added: “As I was unconscious, I cannot personally verify these accusations, but so many people have told me about them that I have to think they may be true.”
Rachel ReevesVerified account @RachelReevesMP 'A @UKLabour govt will scrap the #BedroomTax & @scottishlabour will use the savings for £175 million Scotland Cares fund to tackle poverty'
What feeble lack of ambition. If they scrapped income tax, they could afford to eliminate poverty altogether and give out free owls to all.
Am I being thick or will restoring the spare room subsidy / cancelling the bedroom tax (delete as appropriate to your prejudices) lead to the govt having less money not more..?
Comments
.@RachelReevesMP: "We can’t afford a decade of injustice. Only a vote for Labour can get the Tories out."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-32026636
I have addressed that point, as a non-expert, many times. There are many different forms of cancer, tumours etc, and surely what you want is a smorgasbord of treatments that can be used, individually or in combination, to treat each individual in the best way for them. Cheomotherapy, radiotherapy, proton beam, drugs, etc.
In the case of Ashya King, the hospital decided the best approach was to use a certain treatment. The parents disagreed. I have no idea who was right, or even if there was a 'right' answer. Neither do you.
The NHS already offers the treatment, sending patients abroad (e.g. the US) for it, so it is not as if the NHS are automatically against it.
'Defenders' of the parents such as yourself (if you insist on using such stupid terms) have no idea about the reality of his condition, or which treatment was best.
The result is that a lot of the Keynesian tool bag no longer works. So if you increase demand (which BenM claims has been weak) you can simply suck in more imports (as we have done to a depressing extent) rather than increasing the demand for goods or services provided from here. In the 1930s this was a relatively minor consideration but today it is huge. This country with years of weak demand is running a trade deficit of over 5% of GDP.
Another example is employment. Freedom of movement within the EU has made the supply of labour incredibly elastic. This has resulted in astonishing increases in employment not generating any shortage of supply for labour and hence almost no increase in real wages.
What governments are trying to do is manage the economy with tools that work less and less with the result that the distortions caused by their actions have to be ever larger to achieve the desired effect.
What does a government do in these situations?
The most obvious answers are to focus very specifically on the factors that make it attractive to trade, build, supply from here rather than somewhere else. The government has done some of that with a more competitive CT rate, with the patent box, by seeking to build on the existing success of London, by challenging the complacent incompetence in our education systems (outwith the very top who are well provided for) and by encouraging locals to seek work rather than depend on benefits by making their personal gains more clear cut.
Where I think they have struggled (partly because of the horrendous fiscal situation that they inherited) is infrastructure investment whether providing new roads, new runways, new housing, faster broadband etc. If UK plc is to thrive in the remainder of this century this will become ever more important. Our politicians don't talk nearly enough about this.
I'm not going to arb it, that's for sure.
0% interest rates from BoE and Fed give fiat money like £ and $ an appropriate value: nothing.
'Scotland’s Big Voice'
http://tinyurl.com/kw6jvzo
But it's puzzling how little you're getting. An average Broxtowe voter will by now have had 5-6 letters and leaflets (from different parties) and a couple of phone calls. What's happening in other close marginals?
(from before the King case): http://scienceblog.cancerresearchuk.org/2013/09/16/proton-therapy-is-coming-to-the-uk-but-what-does-it-mean-for-patients/
2% inflation, 3% real growth is the goldilocks scenario
I fear you misunderstand the full workings of my ARSE and indeed why shouldn't you as you are an ARSE denier who has never warmed to its mighty prediction qualities
My ARSE isn't a nowcast based on the most recent polling but a projection for 7th May based on a whole range of political, economic, demographic and other social data. Opinion polls are weighted according to past performance, house effect and other factors.
Enfield North has moved back and forth between "Likely LAB Gain" and TCTC over the last several months. Will it be the 2015 version of Basildon in 1992? .... Perhaps so.
Feedback was quite good, though I did get a couple of "Too long, not read" replies too.
"the first question for any policy should be “Will this affect our long-term economic viability?” This in turn needs to be linked to fairness – people will tolerate the effects of restructuring if they can see that they are being looked after as well."
The first question is the real question of substance.
The second question is how politicians sell the answer to the first question. They must find ways of doing it that do not mean that any benefit is lost.
For me, that is what politics should really be about. We obsess with froth when there is so much work to do.
The Tories are heading for a clear defeat, caught in a pincer movement between Labour and UKIP, and languishing at 33-34% in the polls, and about to be screwed by an electoral system and boundaries that help Labour. Unless UKIP recedes well into single figures, there's no hope.
And I can't see why UKIP would collapse in the next 6 weeks.
Which makes all the talk about Dave quitting before 2020 all the more risible. He clearly will quit before 2020 - I reckon some time around the second week in May, 2015! I don't believe Dave eats ANY quantity of Shredded Wheat, any more than I believe Ed only ever uses his "tea and snacks" kitchen.
Surely he breakfasts on some sort of poncey natural granola cereal from that overpriced Cotswolds farm shop down the road, followed by some toasted artisan bread?
The drop is already underway.
Today the forecast for 7th May shows a few Con losses to Lab and Ukip balanced by some gains from the LibDems and a net gain of 4 seats on 2010. Not quite "romping".
It won't save Dave. The Tory PP will be scenting blood when they move over to the Opposition benches in May. The retribution will be brutal.
I thought it balanced and persuasive - while I think Cameron "gets" globalisation, I've yet to see (or perhaps haven't been paying attention) that Miliband does - but it's clearly the "elephant in the room" at this (and the next twenty) elections.
On behalf of nitpickers everywhere, perhaps point 3 might be more persuasive if it included "influence on your behalf" - voters are suspicious enough of politicians self aggrandisement without needlessly adding to their (in your case it would appear unfounded) fears.
On your 'what can we do about it' section, I'd argue the current government is doing pretty well on all three of those.
But it is, of course, the policy solutions we will disagree on rather the diagnosis of the problem.
TNS Poll: Signs UKIP support may fall ahead of election
London – 24 March – Whilst the latest TNS voting intentions poll has UKIP in third place with support at 17%, there is evidence that the tide is turning against UKIP and that their support may fall away ahead of the election. In particular, the importance of immigration as a public priority has been falling over the last six months and the public’s rating of Nigel Farage is becoming less positive. The new poll by TNS UK also reveals that support for UKIP is softer than for Labour and Conservatives, with fewer of their supporters saying they will definitely vote for them.
The number one policy priority for the British public is healthcare, which has been the case since October 2014. Generating economic growth and reducing unemployment are the second and third policy priorities.
The latest research also shows that immigration is reducing in importance to the general public. Immigration is ranked fourth on the TNS Public Policy Priority Index far behind the top three issues, having peaked in importance at the end of 2014. As recently as November last year, immigration was joint second with economic growth and reducing unemployment and only just behind investing more in healthcare. However, since then its importance has decreased markedly and it is now almost level with education.
http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/news/tns-poll-signs-ukip-support-may-fall-ahead-of-election
were being consistent.
Actually, scrub that: he's extremely consistent. He consistently works backwards from his irrational dislike of Osborne.
I'm amazed that the pilots didn't issue an emergency call until just before it crashed because the apparent problem started earlier, perhaps they didn't realize that there were losing altitude.
2. Navigate
3. Communicate
In that order...
Coming from a safe Labour stronghold (though currently Lib Dem until 7th May), I was pleased to cast a Tory GE vote in a safe Tory stronghold, even though it was clear the Tories were going to be hounded out in a Labour landslide nationally.
I was more astonished that W&L went Labour than by the scale of Blair's win!
So you reckon 0.0% is too low. OK. Let's work with that. What level higher than 0% is right? What level would make you say, Well done, George - neither too low, nor so high as to create a cost of living crisis either. 'Arrows George - you nailed it.
What sort of level would that be?
It's a very straightforward question you seem oddly anxious not to answer.
Sadly Bob you are the Tory PB Jonah par excellence. You remind me of the ad for "skittles" where the chap at the desk touches anything and it descends into a pile of sweeties, except in your case you feel all the Conservatives touch turns another of their marginal seats into a Labour gain.
With regret I'm forced to conclude you have the predictive qualities of Rogerdamus. Are you related ?
10 LibDem losses to the Conservatives
3-6 Con losses to UKIP (assuming Rochester, Clacton, and Thanet count as losses)
xx other
One feels like it "should" be Labour, the other definitely should be Tory. Anyone who has ever visited both knows which way round this is.
It is doubtful that the electoral system will benefit Labour more than the Conservatives in a scenario where they lose all but a handful of seats in Scotland to the SNP. I suspect at the next election the SNP will most benefit from FPTP, followed by the Conservatives, followed by Labour, followed by the Liberal Democrats, with the UK Independence Party being the most disadvantaged.
I am now expecting a hung parliament with the Conservatives on most seats, but Labour forming a left-wing coalition. David Cameron made a lot of needed changes to the party, but his leadership has been a one wheeled chariot. He did a good job of reaching out economically centre-right, socially liberal voters, but has done a very poor job at even holding on to the economically centre-left, socially conservative voters we already had.
Those of us that live in UKIP's heartlands in Essex and Kent had been warning for years that the UKIP threat was a serious one, yet the leadership always failed to listen. When they finally woke up to the threat, they instead decided to publicly shame UKIP-sympathetic voters by calling them racist. That might work among the Chipping Norton types, but it only cements working class votes into the UKIP column. Even now, you see many Conservatives attempting to follow the same playbook that has failed to reduce the UKIP threat for the last two years.
Mere talk won't work either: these voters no longer trust mainstream politicians so don't believe them when they make promises. What they need to see is action: immigration coming down, expense cheats in parliament jailed, the local yobs down the street being brought under control. Unfortunately, actions like the vote yesterday, where parliament refused to give protection for whistleblowers on child abuse, just gives off the image that it's the same old establishment voting to protect their own backsides. Just like when they voted themselves pay rises, it makes it so much harder for volunteers to win people round on the doorstep, but they can't seem to stop themselves.
They would have at least tried to steer the plane away from the alps and towards the nearest airport, but the plane didn't change direction.
Daily Mail Online @MailOnline 59m59 minutes ago
Germanwings flight A320 plunged 31,200 feet in just ten minutes, according to radar data http://dailym.ai/1xutzOo
Many admirers of my ARSE go on bended knee to kiss hands with me although I draw the line at any untoward familiarity in another direction.
The term "kiss my arse" springs to mind !!
No sound-proofing
If you have the choice do you bat first or 2nd ?
Everyone remembers the big finish.
@Andrew_ComRes: 43% of 18-24s 'may change mind' about vote at #GE2015 compared to only 19% of aged 65+ @GMB
Whats wrong with supporting local shops as opposed to the predatory supermarket chains? Your thick prejudice leads you down endless dead end alleys.
We're getting seven ComRes phone polls between now and May
@Andrew_ComRes: RT @researchlive: ComRes announces polling partnership with ITV News and Daily Mail http://t.co/2pEK631WwV #marketresearch #mrx
.................................................
Laters ....
One glossy A2 folded Labour (attacking Lib Dems)
One A3 Lib Dem (we are the challengers)
One A4 folded UKIP (standard national leaflet with A4 folded St Albans specific insert).
Nothing as yet from Greens or Conservatives.
I see he's coasting again, more focused on rustling up a photogenic spot of Sunday lunch for James Lansdale in his Cotswold country kitchen than thinking about what is emanating from his gob and what impact it has on his chances of victory!
It's reminiscent of the W. A. Lewis model of development with infinitely elastic supply of labour. In Lewis this was due to movement from subsistence underemployment in agriculture to the urban sector. In the UK now we have the migration from the EU. So the immigration "problem" and the employment success are tied together. We must have policies that attenuate the undoubtably negative social effects of the immigration but which don't impinge on the elasticity of labour supply.
In the 60s Charles Kindleberger argued that the German economic "miracle", and also that in continental Europe more widely, could be explained in these terms. Ironic that the Wirtschaftswunder is now working to the UK's advantage.
6 Lord Ashcroft;
11 Populus;
7 Comres Mail;
35 Yougov;
1 Ipsos Mori;
1 ICM;
6 Opinium ?
@Andrew_ComRes: ComRes poll for @GMB finds more women than men undecided, and among women NHS is overwhelmingly most imp vote-decider in #GE2015
Plus a few more from Survation and TNS.
Plus 3 ComRes online polls.
And maybe a few Populus phone polls.
http://www.aeroinside.com/item/4946/lufthansa-a321-near-bilbao-on-nov-5th-2014-loss-of-4000-feet-of-altitude
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/558483-iced-aoa-sensors-send-a321-into-deep-dive.html
Note: "Airbus are currently working on the fix and this should be rolled out across fleets soon."
It seems they gave instructions to airmen in the meantime not to operate the aircraft in a certain way.
Today's crash looks as if the crew were out cold, and the aircraft has simply flown without human interference into a mountain.
Interesting numbers, as the economy is the overarching issue that dictates the state (funding) of NHS, a key mover on Immigration though job creation and inextricably linked to the Cost of Living. I would say that is a survey that is as clear as mud.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/icm
Though keep in mind the Sunday Telegraph no longer take's ICM phone polls...
Plus capital is highly mobile so this makes a lot of old ideas and concepts moot such as comparative advantage or labour 'shortages', production just relocates.
Did you know the Daily Telegraph haven't commissioned a Westminster VI poll since 2010?
Plus I think ORB, Angus Reid and NOP might make an appearance.
The funny thing is that pitot tube icing (and turning on heat to prevent it) comes really early in the PPL - by 15 hours, you should know all about it.
There is still slack in the economy and businesses are sitting on enough reserves of their own so that borrowing for investment should not be a problem. Low interest is hardly an incentive for them to leave them there.
Would you say this is a goldilocks scenario?
It only comes to the top when people are asked to name three.
It's also noticeable that the people who are most likely to name it are white, AB, rural/suburban, govt voters.
Oh, and the Welsh. There is a clear spike in Wales where it is named as the top issue.
The economic answers tend to get split across the economy, the cost of living, unemployment/jobs. With the NHS people get the one offering.
If the NHS was divided into GP waiting times, A and E and something else, it would be comparable.
Kelvin MacKenzie: I’ve changed. I now believe Britain needs migrants
In my time as Sun editor I maligned minorities. But I’ve come to realise how language demeans incomers
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/mar/24/britain-needs-migrants-sun-editor-kelvin-mackenzie
While we're talking about a lack of state accountability, did you see my question to you about the justification used by those voting down the amendment to give whistle blowers immunity? I can not make head nor tail of parliament's decision there at the moment.
24/03/2015 13:07
I'm delighted to announce our new candidate for #FolkestoneAndHythe – Harriet Yeo, former Labour NEC Chairman, now #UKIP member
@RachelReevesMP
'A @UKLabour govt will scrap the #BedroomTax & @scottishlabour will use the savings for £175 million Scotland Cares fund to tackle poverty'
The funny thing is I know what Reeves actually meant (or why her handlers told her to say this on her Scottish jaunt) - the Scottish Government will have more money available because they currently have to spend money to offset the Spare Room Subsidy (although it's only £45m or so nothing like £175m).
But she still sounds like a moron.
And Labour and this election still has no say in how the Scottish Government choose to reallocate the saving.
This Labour campaign is bizarre. I can't think of a single thing UK Labour or their Scottish Branch has done in the entire campaign so far where I've thought "well played". Everything they touch turns to shite.
'THE leader of the national Green Party has launched an investigation into the conduct of her members at a public meeting which ended when veteran Birkenhead MP Frank Field was rushed to hospital after a shock collapse.
Mr Field wrote to Ms Bennett informing her that five Green Party members had been “going way beyond the sort of behaviour which is regarded as acceptable” and noted that other members of the public found their “activities so offensive that they had been asking them to leave”.
He said that while he was unconscious, one individual tried to take photographs of him, actions which the Birkenhead MP said “greatly upset a lot of people”.
Mr Field added: “As I was unconscious, I cannot personally verify these accusations, but so many people have told me about them that I have to think they may be true.”
http://m.wirralglobe.co.uk/news/11873331.UPDATED__Investigation_launched_into_Green_Party_conduct_at_meeting_which_saw_Birkenhead_MP_Frank_Field_rushed_to_hospital/