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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Given Dave’s more popular than CON his announcement should theoretically help LAB
The latest Ipsos-MORI like leader like party ratings illustrate what is very common when it comes to public views of Cameron and his party: Invariably unlike the other party leaders he is a net asset securing better numbers than the Conservative party.
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Did he mean to say it, I don't know, probably not. But he was asked a straight question IF HE WON THE GE, WOULD BE STAY ON AFTER 2020, he started off in standard politician non-committal and then just went are sod it, no I am definitely not going to be around after that.
Is that really a big surprise? I have read plenty that basically said that was always his plan. We all know he doesn't live, breath, eat, sleep, only exist for the fight of politics.
I thought more interesting question / answer, was did he enjoy being PM, and he basically said no!
Somebody stating they will step down in 5 years, will affect your vote in a few weeks how? Most people don't live and breath politics, and what Cameron has said makes no different to GE.
It isn't like we are back to Tony, yes I'm off, well no not quite, maybe in a bit, could be, oh I have been shoved...
Also, they say a week is a long time in politics, 5 years is an entity. How many people would have predicted Ed Miliband in 2005 to lead the Labour Party?
Not only did Ed Miliband's visit to Scotland not make the front pages today, neither he or the Labour party managed to successfully neutralise Salmond's unhelpful intervention yesterday. Job done.
If Labour decide to focus on the question of leadership in the election campaign, I doubt that will trouble the Conservative strategists too much either.
My general view is that this was Cameron answering an honest question straightforwardly. A characteristic - like sticking up for his friends - that I find rather refreshing in a politician.
From a tactical perspective, my understanding was that a lot of Kippers have a personal distrust for Cameron. So the message of "hold your nose and vote for the Tories" become much more palatable if it's 3 years of Cameron vs an eternity with Ed. After all, we all know that they are 150% right in their worldview, and the Tories are absolutely certain to see that one day, and vote for St. Nigel to become their leader once Cameron steps down.
I doubt it will change anything because Cameron isn't going to go before the EU referendum, and its that which causes Kippers to distrust him most. They are concerned, with some justification, (cast iron, no ifs no buts, etc) of being sold down the river in a stitch up with the pro-EU establishment, and the few prominent troublemakers (Gove etc) being bought off with some perk or another.
Incidentally the idea that Gove, Dave's dinner party mate that took a shot in the back, for the good of the party, in stepping down from Education with minimal fuss, is going to call him out over Europe seems fanciful to me, and the idea that any senior Tory that wants to get a government position and a 2020 Tory win is going to rock the boat seems a stretch.
150 minutes 150 seconds
I'd agree that Gove is more likely to resign to actively undermine his friend, but I don't think he'd put his name to something that he fundamentally disagrees with.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/03/23/voters_are_missing_its_another_govtdigishambles/?page=1
Meh.
One of Cameron's more attractive features is that he is not a political obsessive in the way so many of our leaders are. It gives him a useful sense of perspective and a deep inclination not to get wound up by every Westminster bubble story. It has allowed his administration to be much more relaxed than new Labour and has allowed Cabinet Ministers to get on with their jobs. Confirming that there is more to life than this seems a part of this to me.
But I don't see it shifting a single vote.
Will we hear from his Bedford kitchen who will be the anointed successor ?
Keep it in the family with rcs100 or will the baton be passed to Herders, TSE or Martin Day ? ....
But more importantly: nice kitchen!
Firstly, he was going to get asked this question at some point so he has got the hysteria out of the way.
Secondly, when Cameron is more popular then Miliband but Labour are more popular than the Tories, this "2-terms-max" and "job half done" mantra makes it more likely that people will stick with Cameron for five more years and then (when Cameron and Miliband are gone) it will be safe to turn to Labour.
How has this been so hard for all the hyperventilating hacks to work out?
Cameron has ruled out serving a third term, as has long been speculated by many on PB – can’t see why “Lynton’s campaign plan” should be any different today, than it was yesterday – unless we are discussing the campaign five years down the road.
He hasn't been altered or transformed by the trappings of office. He doesn't look too fussed, or bothered, by politics either way and looks as though he'd be just as happy spending time with his friends and family and tending his vegetable patch in the Cotswolds.
Of course, that is both a strength and a weakness.
And then project onto that unpopular Tory choice the most controversial policies they can think of.
The flip-side is that the alternatives Cameron name checked: Osborne and Johnson aren't particularly unpopular at the moment. Most people are ambivalent (or don't know anything) about May.
It's probably a good job he didn't mention Gove.
Spread betting always frightens me but Labour are a serious buy at this level.
Leadership speculation is the bread and butter of political punditry. I cannot see this dominating the campaign or hurting the Conservatives.
Indeed some of the front bench may be energised by the announcement.
I suppose it’s a sign of age, but I can recall that for years the heir-apparent to Churchill was Eden. When Eden actually got the job he made a bog of it.
'It's too get rid of evil spirits. Clotti (one of their PA's) arrived home from location last night and found her husband having sex with a neighbour in his car"
"Poor Clotti" I said. "What kind of car was it?" Nobody spoke to me for the rest of the day.......
When I watched the kitchen interview with Cameron last night I felt a cringing embarrassment that I haven't felt since Eamon Andrews did his final 'This is your life'
It took a constitution toughened in Mexico City not to throw up listening to those two crawling all over each other.
Please. No more. And that BBC need better interviewers.
Link to Guardian - David Cameron talks breasts, thighs – and third terms.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/23/david-cameron-third-term-bbc-interview
But was it the second kitchen?
@Tim would have loved it two OEs together, Landale and Cameron.
Edit, driving home yesterday I heard the UKIP spokesman on defence matters. Thought he came across quite well and was pressing a lot of buttons in his target audience.
The idea of Boris knuckling down, working hard and mastering a ministerial brief for four or five years as he bides his time waiting for a shot at the leadership is an interesting one. Per the exchanges on here last night: he is certainly very clever, but he is also bone idle and does not bother himself with things like detail - he pays others to do that in London.
Not working out the details of the British banana policy.
"Link to Guardian - David Cameron talks breasts, thighs – and third terms.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/23/david-cameron-third-term-bbc-interview"
Thanks Dr Spyn! Just the picture we need at 7.30 in the morning (but it does illustrate my post well)
"What could be more natural than two old school friends having a cosy chat in front of the cameras?"
Is that true?
cameras still rolling when the baby oil came out ?
PB should be told.
BoJo's best chance now is if the Tories lose in May or if there is a major bust-up over Europe if they get a new term. I'd be very surprised if he did not take the other side to Dave and George - ie, advocate an Out vote - should there be a referendum.
"pangs of guilt Roger ?
cameras still rolling when the baby oil came out ?
PB should be told."
I just wanted to know if they used tongues.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/23/david-cameron-third-term-bbc-interview (compliments Dr Spyn)
More relevant is choice of university which you by and large chose yourself.
So we get the joy of people campaigning against status and elitism from the most staussy elitist institutions in the country, And they do it with a straight face.
'I'll finish the job I started (deficit) and then I'll be gone'.
What the public won't like is a Gordon style coronation.
I think my vote would be for Eden, but I could easily be persuaded otherwise.
"Yes - same year at Eton. Who'd have thought it?"
RIGHT!! I get it now. Am I the only person who didn't know this? Was it part of the presentation of the interview that Cammo's school chum and bosom Buddy was the oleaginous interviewer?
If they'd said it viewers might have seen it in a more sympathetic light
ED Miliband tried his hardest to make this speech all about Labour and the Tories. But for the party members and the media at the back of the room, it was all about the SNP.
Clydebank is as red as they come. This is a place that has had a Labour MP for just about as long as it has been possible to have a Labour MP. .....
Miliband was due to speak just after 9am. At 8.55am The Guardian released the details of its ICM poll under the headline “Labour faces wipeout in Scotland”.
http://www.thenational.scot/politics/terrible-timing-for-red-ed-as-visit-to-clydebank-coincides-with-forecast-of-scottish-wipe-out.1365
"You clearly missed the Gordon Brown tongue/sphincter interview of 2010."
Time to put your Marlborough days beind you and move on.....
Too lazy to control his underlings in their squabbles, and willing to pluck policies out of the air.
Mind you Gordon was clearly a grafter. Not that it made him a better PM.
You'll find Ed has been interviewed by Stephanie Flanders his one-time squeeze, should we ban her from the airwaves or him for that matter ?
You'll find most of the frontbenches and media land are Oxbridgers. It's much more likely our elite instuitutions will bag all the top jobs for their mates more than the schools.
What's school got to do with it ?
I'm sure I predicted he'd leave around midway through any second term. Might dig out the post.
Sunshine breaks out in Warwickshire :-)
Was it the interview you disliked or the thought that a sympathetic chat might add a fraction to the Tories polling? It won't do any harm? It might mitigate the upward blip for Ukip from the luvvie love-in at the pub on Sunday.
I used to wonder what the more demonstrative people in politics thought they were gaining by gobby, look at me, anti-social rants. Then I realised .. they gained a warm feeling for themselves, so job done.
Anyway, Cameron was asked a question. He decided to answer. Unusual, but not earth-shattering for normal people.
There is very rarely a time when political action is better than inaction - perhaps 1939, but that's about it. I just wish we'd had more lazy politicians.
"Roger, unroll the banknote and put away the powder NOW."
You don't have to be Tapestry to suspect the chances of a BBC interviewer being one of the 12 pupils in Cameron's class at Eton being more than coincidence. The random chances would be literally hundreds of thousands to one.
Therefore it is part of the story and I would be surprised if the BBC failed to mention it.