Here we have the Tories claiming something they predicted couldn't and wouldn't happen - ie. deflation - is now an example of their success!
You couldn't make it up.
0% inflation in a recovery? That's a canary in a coalmine not an opportunity to wave pom-poms.
Ben, you obviously know that it is down to the collapse in oil prices, not a fall in standards of living, so why try to make a partisan point when you know it's wrong?
Here we have the Tories claiming something they predicted couldn't and wouldn't happen - ie. deflation - is now an example of their success!
You couldn't make it up.
0% inflation in a recovery? That's a canary in a coalmine not an opportunity to wave pom-poms.
I'm not sure it is a sign of bad things to come. Should oil prices rise again and we get inflation in the 3% to 5% range, then you can bet your bottom dollar that the Government won't take the blame for it.
I remember reading on PB a few years ago, that Osborne was stoking inflation....
I am going to put my hand up for that. I really did not see how all that QE could not result in a run on the £ and consequential inflation. I clearly underestimated the deflationary effects of the reduction of Bank balance sheets and the reduction of consumer borrowing.
I also expected interest rates to be rising by now on the back of stronger growth. Once again I underestimated the deflationary pressures but at least I am consistently wrong!
The management of Osborne and Mark Carney over these last several years is arguably the finest we have seen over a sustained period for at least 50 years.
"Arguably" is the key word there.
It is ironic that Osborne has followed the Ed Balls strategy of reducing the deficit over ten years rather than five with some Keynesian expansion on infrastructure. Ed Balls doesn't feel he can point this out. "GO has failed. He has followed my plan". How frustrating.
The other irony is that avoiding a triple dip recession and today's reasonable growth has a significant contribution from the larger than planned immigration which has added significantly to population and GDP. I don't know why Ed Balls doesn't point this out.
It seems strange to me that the press is covering a (perhaps) poorly-chosen stock photo as being insufficiently sensitive about child abuse, and not covering parliament just voting to not protect whistle-blowers on child abuse.
Here we have the Tories claiming something they predicted couldn't and wouldn't happen - ie. deflation - is now an example of their success!
You couldn't make it up.
0% inflation in a recovery? That's a canary in a coalmine not an opportunity to wave pom-poms.
Ben - I'm ready for the litmus test - is 0% inflation a good or bad thing for the country ?
BJO says its a disaster to be in deflation.
Good - helps real incomes, er that's about it
Bad - keeps real value of debts high, indicates weak demand, outright deflation can lead to a downward spiral, weak nominal wage growth, in a market of stagnant prices eventually earnings growth can only come from shaking out workers.
I'll put it on record that if the Tories somehow get in in May that there will be signs of recession by Q4 2015 if Osborne follows through with the plans implied in the damp squib of a budget.
One piece of evidence that even the government did not see this coming on this scale is the triple lock for pensions. The final strand of the guarantee, that pensions would rise at a minimum 2.5% a year, is both unaffordable and unjustifiable in the event of sustained deflation.
Carney says any deflation is likely to be modest and brief. I hope he is right once again.
It seems strange to me that the press is covering a (perhaps) poorly-chosen stock photo as being insufficiently sensitive about child abuse, and not covering parliament just voting to not protect whistle-blowers on child abuse.
There seems to be a deafening silence all around about that. It almost is if they prefer following the "Rotherham Model" where the whistle blower was told "you must never say that again" and was sent on a diversity training course.
Here we have the Tories claiming something they predicted couldn't and wouldn't happen - ie. deflation - is now an example of their success!
You couldn't make it up.
0% inflation in a recovery? That's a canary in a coalmine not an opportunity to wave pom-poms.
Ben - I'm ready for the litmus test - is 0% inflation a good or bad thing for the country ?
BJO says its a disaster to be in deflation.
Bad - indicates weak demand,
But according to Rosaree it is totally due to the slump in oil price - and we are all borrowing too much to spend on credit apparently - and yet demand is weak.
One piece of evidence that even the government did not see this coming on this scale is the triple lock for pensions. The final strand of the guarantee, that pensions would rise at a minimum 2.5% a year, is both unaffordable and unjustifiable in the event of sustained deflation.
Carney says any deflation is likely to be modest and brief. I hope he is right once again.
As the oil price has stabilised inflation can't continue to fall for much past the summer.
One piece of evidence that even the government did not see this coming on this scale is the triple lock for pensions. The final strand of the guarantee, that pensions would rise at a minimum 2.5% a year, is both unaffordable and unjustifiable in the event of sustained deflation.
Carney says any deflation is likely to be modest and brief. I hope he is right once again.
Here we have the Tories claiming something they predicted couldn't and wouldn't happen - ie. deflation - is now an example of their success!
You couldn't make it up.
0% inflation in a recovery? That's a canary in a coalmine not an opportunity to wave pom-poms.
Ben - I'm ready for the litmus test - is 0% inflation a good or bad thing for the country ?
BJO says its a disaster to be in deflation.
Bad - indicates weak demand,
But according to Rosaree it is totally due to the slump in oil price - and we are all borrowing too much to spend on credit apparently - and yet demand is weak.
How can they all be true ?
We've had weak demand throughout the entirety of this parliament.
Inflation has masked this considerably due to external influences - firstly in positive direction thanks to commodities, then back down again thanks to Oil.
Growth has come latterly thanks to input of labour, mainly numbers of migrant workers, and Osborne abandoning plan A in 2012.
Nah, it's what counts as journalism at the telegraph now.
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"Stories seemed no longer judged by their importance, accuracy or appeal to those who actually bought the paper. The more important measure appeared to be the number of online visits. On 22 September Telegraph online ran a story about a woman with three breasts. One despairing executive told me that it was known this was false even before the story was published."
I remember reading on PB a few years ago, that Osborne was stoking inflation....
I am going to put my hand up for that. I really did not see how all that QE could not result in a run on the £ and consequential inflation. I clearly underestimated the deflationary effects of the reduction of Bank balance sheets and the reduction of consumer borrowing.
I also expected interest rates to be rising by now on the back of stronger growth. Once again I underestimated the deflationary pressures but at least I am consistently wrong!
The management of Osborne and Mark Carney over these last several years is arguably the finest we have seen over a sustained period for at least 50 years.
I agree totally with that last statement, Osborne has worked a miracle and anyone that cannot see that is a partisan idiot who cares more about his party than the country.
I'm sure we all readily defer to your unparalleled experience of partisan idiocy.
I remember reading on PB a few years ago, that Osborne was stoking inflation....
I am going to put my hand up for that. I really did not see how all that QE could not result in a run on the £ and consequential inflation. I clearly underestimated the deflationary effects of the reduction of Bank balance sheets and the reduction of consumer borrowing.
I also expected interest rates to be rising by now on the back of stronger growth. Once again I underestimated the deflationary pressures but at least I am consistently wrong!
The management of Osborne and Mark Carney over these last several years is arguably the finest we have seen over a sustained period for at least 50 years.
I agree totally with that last statement, Osborne has worked a miracle and anyone that cannot see that is a partisan idiot who cares more about his party than the country.
I'm sure we all readily defer to your unparalleled experience of partisan idiocy.
I remember reading on PB a few years ago, that Osborne was stoking inflation....
I am going to put my hand up for that. I really did not see how all that QE could not result in a run on the £ and consequential inflation. I clearly underestimated the deflationary effects of the reduction of Bank balance sheets and the reduction of consumer borrowing.
I also expected interest rates to be rising by now on the back of stronger growth. Once again I underestimated the deflationary pressures but at least I am consistently wrong!
The management of Osborne and Mark Carney over these last several years is arguably the finest we have seen over a sustained period for at least 50 years.
I agree totally with that last statement, Osborne has worked a miracle and anyone that cannot see that is a partisan idiot who cares more about his party than the country.
I'm sure we all readily defer to your unparalleled experience of partisan idiocy.
"You only have to look at the mass of Dave-centred glossy literature being pushed through letter boxes in the key marginals at the moment to realise how important Cameron is to the campaign."
NE Derbyshire is not a marginal to my mind, but I know it is part of the 40:40 strategy.
Not a mention of Dave on my doorstep literature.
How much literature have you had? A thread on our various experiences might be interesting, to see what the parties are doing in different kinds of seat. In my patch, most people have now had several Labour and Tory leaflets and one UKIP one, but nothing from LibDems (no candidae yet) or Greens. There's also a lot of phoning going on - I spoke to one fed-up guy on Sunday who said Anna had called him 5 minutes earlier and Cameron had called him (presumably an automated recorded message) last week, and "the bloody campaign hasn't even started yet".
Which will drive up consumption, demand, jobs and revenue from indirect taxation and it will make people feel happier and more confident.
It also creates spare revenue for those wishing to pay down debt, whilst completely negating the need for the government to increase welfare spending whilst also driving down the cost of index linked government debt.
"You only have to look at the mass of Dave-centred glossy literature being pushed through letter boxes in the key marginals at the moment to realise how important Cameron is to the campaign."
NE Derbyshire is not a marginal to my mind, but I know it is part of the 40:40 strategy.
Not a mention of Dave on my doorstep literature.
How much literature have you had? A thread on our various experiences might be interesting, to see what the parties are doing in different kinds of seat. In my patch, most people have now had several Labour and Tory leaflets and one UKIP one, but nothing from LibDems (no candidae yet) or Greens. There's also a lot of phoning going on - I spoke to one fed-up guy on Sunday who said Anna had called him 5 minutes earlier and Cameron had called him (presumably an automated recorded message) last week, and "the bloody campaign hasn't even started yet".
Just the two, like I said I've heard its part of the 40:40 but I don't believe it's possible for Labour to lose the seat no matter how bad a night you have.
"You only have to look at the mass of Dave-centred glossy literature being pushed through letter boxes in the key marginals at the moment to realise how important Cameron is to the campaign."
NE Derbyshire is not a marginal to my mind, but I know it is part of the 40:40 strategy.
Not a mention of Dave on my doorstep literature.
How much literature have you had? A thread on our various experiences might be interesting, to see what the parties are doing in different kinds of seat. In my patch, most people have now had several Labour and Tory leaflets and one UKIP one, but nothing from LibDems (no candidae yet) or Greens. There's also a lot of phoning going on - I spoke to one fed-up guy on Sunday who said Anna had called him 5 minutes earlier and Cameron had called him (presumably an automated recorded message) last week, and "the bloody campaign hasn't even started yet".
I have had one posted glossy Labour leaflet with no mention of Ed nor the local seat nor the candidate (Cambridge) - banging on exclusively about the NHS.
breaking: Airbus A320 goes down in the Southern French Alps. Believed en route from Barcelona to Dusseldorf, with 148 on board...
The BBC has a map in its coverage, which implies the plane shouldn't have been anywhere near the Alps. I'm not sure why it would fly over the mountains when it could have taken a route west of Lyon
Which will drive up consumption, demand, jobs and revenue from indirect taxation and it will make people feel happier and more confident.
It also creates spare revenue for those wishing to pay down debt, whilst completely negating the need for the government to increase welfare spending whilst also driving down the cost of index linked government debt.
The government's spending automatically declines.
It will drive up consumption a bit, but with nominal wage growth so low, not by anything sustainable. If people pay down debt with the spare cash (unlikely) that will maintain weak demand, which is not what the economy needs.
I did forget that a major benefit of 0% inflation is to maintain interest rates at their current low rates (how we laugh at those City economists and admirers of Osborne who were predicting rate rises in 2011!).
Important, because as we've seen, Osborne has recklessly given up on rebalancing and his assumptions about future growth rely massively on this low bank rate being maintained!
breaking: Airbus A320 goes down in the Southern French Alps. Believed en route from Barcelona to Dusseldorf, with 148 on board...
The BBC has a map in its coverage, which implies the plane shouldn't have been anywhere near the Alps. I'm not sure why it would fly over the mountains when it could have taken a route west of Lyon
Here we have the Tories claiming something they predicted couldn't and wouldn't happen - ie. deflation - is now an example of their success!
You couldn't make it up.
0% inflation in a recovery? That's a canary in a coalmine not an opportunity to wave pom-poms.
Ben - I'm ready for the litmus test - is 0% inflation a good or bad thing for the country ?
BJO says its a disaster to be in deflation.
Bad - indicates weak demand,
But according to Rosaree it is totally due to the slump in oil price - and we are all borrowing too much to spend on credit apparently - and yet demand is weak.
How can they all be true ?
We've had weak demand throughout the entirety of this parliament.
Inflation has masked this considerably due to external influences - firstly in positive direction thanks to commodities, then back down again thanks to Oil.
Growth has come latterly thanks to input of labour, mainly numbers of migrant workers, and Osborne abandoning plan A in 2012.
Go on then Ben. What level of inflation do you consider would do Osborne credit?
You don't like 0.0% and I imagine you wouldn't like 30.0%. What number would you like, and why?
I remember reading on PB a few years ago, that Osborne was stoking inflation....
I am going to put my hand up for that. I really did not see how all that QE could not result in a run on the £ and consequential inflation. I clearly underestimated the deflationary effects of the reduction of Bank balance sheets and the reduction of consumer borrowing.
I also expected interest rates to be rising by now on the back of stronger growth. Once again I underestimated the deflationary pressures but at least I am consistently wrong!
The management of Osborne and Mark Carney over these last several years is arguably the finest we have seen over a sustained period for at least 50 years.
I agree totally with that last statement, Osborne has worked a miracle and anyone that cannot see that is a partisan idiot who cares more about his party than the country.
And 5 posts later along comes BenM!
All we need is Gabble and Tim back and we'd have all three of the Chuckle Brothers.
I think Labour should abandon the triple lock if they get in. I think having it linked to inflation would be problematic when it's near zero - Brown never lived down the 75p rise. But if you expect inflation to go back to 2%, personally I'd rather 3%, linking it to that wouldn't be so bad.
It is the casual arrogance of the Tories like Cameron who think they are born to rule.It must be an Old Etonian thing,a voyeuristic insight into their pyche by the Beeb and a good compare and contrast mechanism for Dave and Ed.The debate about the debates was the back-drop. In a head to head has already won by Dave backing down.Who is looking weak now? Is Cameron a man or a mouse?
breaking: Airbus A320 goes down in the Southern French Alps. Believed en route from Barcelona to Dusseldorf, with 148 on board...
The BBC has a map in its coverage, which implies the plane shouldn't have been anywhere near the Alps. I'm not sure why it would fly over the mountains when it could have taken a route west of Lyon
Macmillan Cancer Support analysed the most recent results from global research into cancer survival and found many countries were doing better in the 1990s than the UK has managed to date.
The charity's chief executive has urged political leaders to commit to tackling the "shameful" survival rates ahead of the General Election.
Lucky BJO told us it is leading the world, otherwise we might think we are in trouble.
Cancer is a ticking time bomb of public anger in the UK. It's such a total deception - look at that poor boy the NHS were basically set to watch die, brought back to health in Romania of all places. Little wonder they wanted the parents arrested and the boy dragged back to his death bed. People are ceasing to believe in terminal cancer, and nor should they.
"look at that poor boy the NHS were basically set to watch die,"
Point 1) Ashya King was not dying. He was ill, yes, but not dying. Southampton General had removed the tumour, and AIUI the conflict came over the continuing care to improve long-term survival chances. That is not 'basically set to watch die'.
Point 2) With the therapy the NHS wanted to give, he had a 70-80% chance of living five years. That is not 'basically set to watch die'.
It is the casual arrogance of the Tories like Cameron who think they are born to rule.It must be an Old Etonian thing,a voyeuristic insight into their pyche by the Beeb and a good compare and contrast mechanism for Dave and Ed.The debate about the debates was the back-drop. In a head to head has already won by Dave backing down.Who is looking weak now? Is Cameron a man or a mouse?
Cameron is normally very consistent in including a conditional such as Should or If before he says 'I am elected...' , as he did on yesterdays interview.
When you are up against Ed I can understand a feeling of entitlement. It is almost imperative for the survival of the country that you succeed.
breaking: Airbus A320 goes down in the Southern French Alps. Believed en route from Barcelona to Dusseldorf, with 148 on board...
The BBC has a map in its coverage, which implies the plane shouldn't have been anywhere near the Alps. I'm not sure why it would fly over the mountains when it could have taken a route west of Lyon
It feels odd that inflation has dropped to 0% when the pump prices have gone up. Personally it felt like inflation was negative in Dec - Feb and it's bumped up again now.
It is the casual arrogance of the Tories like Cameron who think they are born to rule.
Remind me again what the evidence for this is? Are you perhaps thinking of those arrogant Tories Euan Blair, Emily Benn, Hilary Benn, Will Straw, Stephen Kinnock, David Prescott, or Joe "Harman" Dromey, the majority of whom are over-privileged talentless no-marks who've never done a real job?
Macmillan Cancer Support analysed the most recent results from global research into cancer survival and found many countries were doing better in the 1990s than the UK has managed to date.
The charity's chief executive has urged political leaders to commit to tackling the "shameful" survival rates ahead of the General Election.
Lucky BJO told us it is leading the world, otherwise we might think we are in trouble.
Cancer is a ticking time bomb of public anger in the UK. It's such a total deception - look at that poor boy the NHS were basically set to watch die, brought back to health in Romania of all places. Little wonder they wanted the parents arrested and the boy dragged back to his death bed. People are ceasing to believe in terminal cancer, and nor should they.
"look at that poor boy the NHS were basically set to watch die,"
Point 1) Ashya King was not dying. He was ill, yes, but not dying. Southampton General had removed the tumour, and AIUI the conflict came over the continuing care to improve long-term survival chances. That is not 'basically set to watch die'.
Point 2) With the therapy the NHS wanted to give, he had a 70-80% chance of living five years. That is not 'basically set to watch die'.
Here we have the Tories claiming something they predicted couldn't and wouldn't happen - ie. deflation - is now an example of their success!
You couldn't make it up.
0% inflation in a recovery? That's a canary in a coalmine not an opportunity to wave pom-poms.
Ben - I'm ready for the litmus test - is 0% inflation a good or bad thing for the country ?
BJO says its a disaster to be in deflation.
Bad - indicates weak demand,
But according to Rosaree it is totally due to the slump in oil price - and we are all borrowing too much to spend on credit apparently - and yet demand is weak.
How can they all be true ?
We've had weak demand throughout the entirety of this parliament.
Inflation has masked this considerably due to external influences - firstly in positive direction thanks to commodities, then back down again thanks to Oil.
Growth has come latterly thanks to input of labour, mainly numbers of migrant workers, and Osborne abandoning plan A in 2012.
Go on then Ben. What level of inflation do you consider would do Osborne credit?
You don't like 0.0% and I imagine you wouldn't like 30.0%. What number would you like, and why?
Go and uncritically wave your blue pom poms somewhere else. We're talking economics here.
Here we have the Tories claiming something they predicted couldn't and wouldn't happen - ie. deflation - is now an example of their success!
You couldn't make it up.
0% inflation in a recovery? That's a canary in a coalmine not an opportunity to wave pom-poms.
Ben - I'm ready for the litmus test - is 0% inflation a good or bad thing for the country ?
BJO says its a disaster to be in deflation.
Bad - indicates weak demand,
But according to Rosaree it is totally due to the slump in oil price - and we are all borrowing too much to spend on credit apparently - and yet demand is weak.
How can they all be true ?
We've had weak demand throughout the entirety of this parliament.
Inflation has masked this considerably due to external influences - firstly in positive direction thanks to commodities, then back down again thanks to Oil.
Growth has come latterly thanks to input of labour, mainly numbers of migrant workers, and Osborne abandoning plan A in 2012.
Go on then Ben. What level of inflation do you consider would do Osborne credit?
You don't like 0.0% and I imagine you wouldn't like 30.0%. What number would you like, and why?
Go and uncritically wave your blue pom poms somewhere else. We're talking economics here.
No you aren't. You flatter yourself. You are cretinously hooting Labour yobbo football chants, and other guff that you've heard elsewhere without understanding and have credulously and uncritically swallowed whole.
Let's focus on what was asked. You objected to 0% inflation. Very well, what level of inflation would do Osborne credit? What level would you concede was a job well done?
If you can't name any such level why are you objecting to 0% and then wriggling like a salted slug when you're called on it? Are you some sort of slogan-parrotting buffoon?
Macmillan Cancer Support analysed the most recent results from global research into cancer survival and found many countries were doing better in the 1990s than the UK has managed to date.
The charity's chief executive has urged political leaders to commit to tackling the "shameful" survival rates ahead of the General Election.
Lucky BJO told us it is leading the world, otherwise we might think we are in trouble.
Cancer is a ticking time bomb of public anger in the UK. It's such a total deception - look at that poor boy the NHS were basically set to watch die, brought back to health in Romania of all places. Little wonder they wanted the parents arrested and the boy dragged back to his death bed. People are ceasing to believe in terminal cancer, and nor should they.
"look at that poor boy the NHS were basically set to watch die,"
Point 1) Ashya King was not dying. He was ill, yes, but not dying. Southampton General had removed the tumour, and AIUI the conflict came over the continuing care to improve long-term survival chances. That is not 'basically set to watch die'.
Point 2) With the therapy the NHS wanted to give, he had a 70-80% chance of living five years. That is not 'basically set to watch die'.
Whatever the precise chances of the poor boy's survival, the whole situation was a terrible abuse of government power. The European Arrest Warrant was used to arrest and hold his parents who were guilty of no crime and suspected of no crime. Suitable limits on the EAW to protect basic rights of individuals should be one of the foremost things on David Cameron's renegotiation list.
If George has got inflation down to zero does that mean he has abolished boom and bust?
Perhaps you are being ironic but the belief that low inflation was all you needed to avoid boom and bust was widespread amongst the economic establishment pre-2008? People who just blame it all on Gordon Brown, and he certainly made mistakes, are trivialising the whole thing and ignoring the mess the economics profession got itself into.
Apparently the Emergency call came when the plane was at 5000 feet and it crashed in an area where snow cover is between 500 mm and 2000 mm. Could that mean there is an outside chance of survivors - a potentially low level drop from the air into potentially soft ground? It's clutching at straws I know, but there may be a slight amount of hope that not everyone was killed.
If George has got inflation down to zero does that mean he has abolished boom and bust?
Perhaps you are being ironic but the belief that low inflation was all you needed to avoid boom and bust was widespread amongst the economic establishment pre-2008? People who just blame it all on Gordon Brown, and he certainly made mistakes, are trivialising the whole thing and ignoring the mess the economics profession got itself into.
I'm just reading an article from 2003 where Gordon Brown is hailing low inflation figures as further evidence that he has abolished boom and bust.
It would have been better if he hadn't said it but all the sound and fury is pure Westminster Village. Leave it alone now or it will become seriously boring, I would say.
The danger is that Labour will say: "Vote Dave, get *most unpopular Tory choice* "
And then project onto that unpopular Tory choice the most controversial policies they can think of.
The flip-side is that the alternatives Cameron name checked: Osborne and Johnson aren't particularly unpopular at the moment. Most people are ambivalent (or don't know anything) about May.
Which do we think would be better. 2% growth and 3% inflation, or 3% growth and 0% inflation?
If your focus is on deficit reduction, 2% growth and 3% inflation is far preferable.
People have thrown around a 5% nominal GDP target. I just can't understand why when we have a mountain of debt and low inflation failed to stop boom and bust we're still pursuing a 2% inflation target.
All will be well, the theory of free market capitalism is that it will be self stabilizing. ( Certainly, the facts say otherwise, but the facts are wrong, and the theory is sound.)
breaking: Airbus A320 goes down in the Southern French Alps. Believed en route from Barcelona to Dusseldorf, with 148 on board...
The BBC has a map in its coverage, which implies the plane shouldn't have been anywhere near the Alps. I'm not sure why it would fly over the mountains when it could have taken a route west of Lyon
Apparently the Emergency call came when the plane was at 5000 feet and it crashed in an area where snow cover is between 500 mm and 2000 mm. Could that mean there is an outside chance of survivors - a potentially low level drop from the air into potentially soft ground? It's clutching at straws I know, but there may be a slight amount of hope that not everyone was killed.
I think they said 5,000 metres, not feet, for the Mayday on BBC News. 5,000 feet would be below, or near the point of impact (2,000 metres, again according to the news).
I also guess that it's the horizontal speed that does the most damage in a CFT, not the vertical drop.
But there's always hope, and it's concerning that the authorities so quickly came out with the 'little chance of survivors' quote.
It feels odd that inflation has dropped to 0% when the pump prices have gone up. Personally it felt like inflation was negative in Dec - Feb and it's bumped up again now.
Laughing Cow up from £2 to £2.15
The monthly figure for February is +0.3%, which is less than the +0.5% for February 2014, which is why the annual figure has declined.
Which do we think would be better. 2% growth and 3% inflation, or 3% growth and 0% inflation?
If your focus is on deficit reduction, 2% growth and 3% inflation is far preferable.
People have thrown around a 5% nominal GDP target. I just can't understand why when we have a mountain of debt and low inflation failed to stop boom and bust we're still pursuing a 2% inflation target.
Inflation has always been seen as the bogey man for politicians
Macmillan Cancer Support analysed the most recent results from global research into cancer survival and found many countries were doing better in the 1990s than the UK has managed to date.
The charity's chief executive has urged political leaders to commit to tackling the "shameful" survival rates ahead of the General Election.
Lucky BJO told us it is leading the world, otherwise we might think we are in trouble.
Cancer is a ticking time bomb of public anger in the UK. It's such a total deception - look at that poor boy the NHS were basically set to watch die, brought back to health in Romania of all places. Little wonder they wanted the parents arrested and the boy dragged back to his death bed. People are ceasing to believe in terminal cancer, and nor should they.
"look at that poor boy the NHS were basically set to watch die,"
Point 1) Ashya King was not dying. He was ill, yes, but not dying. Southampton General had removed the tumour, and AIUI the conflict came over the continuing care to improve long-term survival chances. That is not 'basically set to watch die'.
Point 2) With the therapy the NHS wanted to give, he had a 70-80% chance of living five years. That is not 'basically set to watch die'.
Which do we think would be better. 2% growth and 3% inflation, or 3% growth and 0% inflation?
Depends on the situation? Over here I think 3% GDP growth and little or no inflation is probably better despite the effect that lower nominal growth would have on the debt/GDP ratio. In a domestically biased economy like ours 3% growth with no inflation would lead to large real terms pay rises for the working population.
"You only have to look at the mass of Dave-centred glossy literature being pushed through letter boxes in the key marginals at the moment to realise how important Cameron is to the campaign."
NE Derbyshire is not a marginal to my mind, but I know it is part of the 40:40 strategy.
Not a mention of Dave on my doorstep literature.
How much literature have you had? A thread on our various experiences might be interesting, to see what the parties are doing in different kinds of seat. In my patch, most people have now had several Labour and Tory leaflets and one UKIP one, but nothing from LibDems (no candidae yet) or Greens. There's also a lot of phoning going on - I spoke to one fed-up guy on Sunday who said Anna had called him 5 minutes earlier and Cameron had called him (presumably an automated recorded message) last week, and "the bloody campaign hasn't even started yet".
Just the two, like I said I've heard its part of the 40:40 but I don't believe it's possible for Labour to lose the seat no matter how bad a night you have.
I think it is very possible and the Conservatives locally are quietly confident as they are in Amber Valley. Jack's TCTC looks right to me.
"You only have to look at the mass of Dave-centred glossy literature being pushed through letter boxes in the key marginals at the moment to realise how important Cameron is to the campaign."
NE Derbyshire is not a marginal to my mind, but I know it is part of the 40:40 strategy.
Not a mention of Dave on my doorstep literature.
How much literature have you had? A thread on our various experiences might be interesting, to see what the parties are doing in different kinds of seat. In my patch, most people have now had several Labour and Tory leaflets and one UKIP one, but nothing from LibDems (no candidae yet) or Greens. There's also a lot of phoning going on - I spoke to one fed-up guy on Sunday who said Anna had called him 5 minutes earlier and Cameron had called him (presumably an automated recorded message) last week, and "the bloody campaign hasn't even started yet".
Just the two, like I said I've heard its part of the 40:40 but I don't believe it's possible for Labour to lose the seat no matter how bad a night you have.
I think it is very possible and the Conservatives locally are quietly confident as they are in Amber Valley. Jack's TCTC looks right to me.
I've backed the Tories in two "Valleys" think they are Calder and Colne though.
Here we have the Tories claiming something they predicted couldn't and wouldn't happen - ie. deflation - is now an example of their success!
You couldn't make it up.
0% inflation in a recovery? That's a canary in a coalmine not an opportunity to wave pom-poms.
Ben - I'm ready for the litmus test - is 0% inflation a good or bad thing for the country ?
BJO says its a disaster to be in deflation.
Bad - indicates weak demand,
But according to Rosaree it is totally due to the slump in oil price - and we are all borrowing too much to spend on credit apparently - and yet demand is weak.
How can they all be true ?
We've had weak demand throughout the entirety of this parliament.
Inflation has masked this considerably due to external influences - firstly in positive direction thanks to commodities, then back down again thanks to Oil.
Growth has come latterly thanks to input of labour, mainly numbers of migrant workers, and Osborne abandoning plan A in 2012.
Go on then Ben. What level of inflation do you consider would do Osborne credit?
You don't like 0.0% and I imagine you wouldn't like 30.0%. What number would you like, and why?
Go and uncritically wave your blue pom poms somewhere else. We're talking economics here.
No you aren't. You flatter yourself. You are cretinously hooting Labour yobbo football chants, and other guff that you've heard elsewhere without understanding and have credulously and uncritically swallowed whole.
Let's focus on what was asked. You objected to 0% inflation. Very well, what level of inflation would do Osborne credit? What level would you concede was a job well done?
If you can't name any such level why are you objecting to 0% and then wriggling like a salted slug when you're called on it? Are you some sort of slogan-parrotting buffoon?
I object to 0% inflation 2 years into what is supposed to be a recovery. If you cannot fathom why, stop doing little twirls and cartwheels and waving your pom poms about everything Tory and go and find out something about the macro economy.
It is the casual arrogance of the Tories like Cameron who think they are born to rule.It must be an Old Etonian thing,a voyeuristic insight into their pyche by the Beeb and a good compare and contrast mechanism for Dave and Ed.The debate about the debates was the back-drop. In a head to head has already won by Dave backing down.Who is looking weak now? Is Cameron a man or a mouse?
Macmillan Cancer Support analysed the most recent results from global research into cancer survival and found many countries were doing better in the 1990s than the UK has managed to date.
The charity's chief executive has urged political leaders to commit to tackling the "shameful" survival rates ahead of the General Election.
Lucky BJO told us it is leading the world, otherwise we might think we are in trouble.
Cancer is a ticking time bomb of public anger in the UK. It's such a total deception - look at that poor boy the NHS were basically set to watch die, brought back to health in Romania of all places. Little wonder they wanted the parents arrested and the boy dragged back to his death bed. People are ceasing to believe in terminal cancer, and nor should they.
"look at that poor boy the NHS were basically set to watch die,"
Point 1) Ashya King was not dying. He was ill, yes, but not dying. Southampton General had removed the tumour, and AIUI the conflict came over the continuing care to improve long-term survival chances. That is not 'basically set to watch die'.
Point 2) With the therapy the NHS wanted to give, he had a 70-80% chance of living five years. That is not 'basically set to watch die'.
The clinic is in Prague. The Czech Republic is a very technologically advanced society.
I'd never claim otherwise. But that still doesn't make the claim that the NHS were basically watching him die in the least bit true.
Our poorly informed colleague was under the impression that the child was treated in Romania.
I belive, and Dr fox will I am sure correct me if I'm wrong that the NHS cautiously regards survival for 5 years after cancer teeatment as cure. At least they've told me that if I have two more clear blood tests I'll be off the surveillance register ed they won't wish me to have any more.
Which do we think would be better. 2% growth and 3% inflation, or 3% growth and 0% inflation?
If your focus is on deficit reduction, 2% growth and 3% inflation is far preferable.
People have thrown around a 5% nominal GDP target. I just can't understand why when we have a mountain of debt and low inflation failed to stop boom and bust we're still pursuing a 2% inflation target.
Because 2% inflation is much more palatable in terms of reducing the nations debt burden than 2% cuts or 2% increase in all taxes.
Macmillan Cancer Support analysed the most recent results from global research into cancer survival and found many countries were doing better in the 1990s than the UK has managed to date.
The charity's chief executive has urged political leaders to commit to tackling the "shameful" survival rates ahead of the General Election.
Lucky BJO told us it is leading the world, otherwise we might think we are in trouble.
Cancer is a ticking time bomb of public anger in the UK. It's such a total deception - look at that poor boy the NHS were basically set to watch die, brought back to health in Romania of all places. Little wonder they wanted the parents arrested and the boy dragged back to his death bed. People are ceasing to believe in terminal cancer, and nor should they.
"look at that poor boy the NHS were basically set to watch die,"
Point 1) Ashya King was not dying. He was ill, yes, but not dying. Southampton General had removed the tumour, and AIUI the conflict came over the continuing care to improve long-term survival chances. That is not 'basically set to watch die'.
Point 2) With the therapy the NHS wanted to give, he had a 70-80% chance of living five years. That is not 'basically set to watch die'.
The clinic is in Prague. The Czech Republic is a very technologically advanced society.
I'd never claim otherwise. But that still doesn't make the claim that the NHS were basically watching him die in the least bit true.
That was never the claim. The claim was that the NHS were denying treatment that would have allow this boy's quality of life to not be damaged by broad radiation. No one has explained why, when the NHS are planning to build their own proton therapy centres, they denied this family on the basis that it would be ineffective.
Defenders such as yourself have continually failed to address this point.
It is the casual arrogance of the Tories like Cameron who think they are born to rule.
Remind me again what the evidence for this is? Are you perhaps thinking of those arrogant Tories Euan Blair, Emily Benn, Hilary Benn, Will Straw, Stephen Kinnock, David Prescott, or Joe "Harman" Dromey, the majority of whom are over-privileged talentless no-marks who've never done a real job?
Quite a few on that list have gotten nowhere near Parliament (despite Guido and the like shrieking about them being linked to such and such safe seat every so often). And you might like to look up the facts about which parliamentary party has the most family connections (hint: it's not Labour).
Macmillan Cancer Support analysed the most recent results from global research into cancer survival and found many countries were doing better in the 1990s than the UK has managed to date.
The charity's chief executive has urged political leaders to commit to tackling the "shameful" survival rates ahead of the General Election.
Lucky BJO told us it is leading the world, otherwise we might think we are in trouble.
Cancer is a ticking time bomb of public anger in the UK. It's such a total deception - look at that poor boy the NHS were basically set to watch die, brought back to health in Romania of all places. Little wonder they wanted the parents arrested and the boy dragged back to his death bed. People are ceasing to believe in terminal cancer, and nor should they.
"look at that poor boy the NHS were basically set to watch die,"
Point 1) Ashya King was not dying. He was ill, yes, but not dying. Southampton General had removed the tumour, and AIUI the conflict came over the continuing care to improve long-term survival chances. That is not 'basically set to watch die'.
Point 2) With the therapy the NHS wanted to give, he had a 70-80% chance of living five years. That is not 'basically set to watch die'.
The clinic is in Prague. The Czech Republic is a very technologically advanced society.
I'd never claim otherwise. But that still doesn't make the claim that the NHS were basically watching him die in the least bit true.
That was never the claim. The claim was that the NHS were denying treatment that would have allow this boy's quality of life to not be damaged by broad radiation. No one has explained why, when the NHS are planning to build their own proton therapy centres, they denied this family on the basis that it would be ineffective.
Defenders such as yourself have continually failed to address this point.
They send people they deem appropriate for Proton treatment to the USA where it costs about five tines as much as it did the kings in Prague... Why the hell is that?
Macmillan Cancer Support analysed the most recent results from global research into cancer survival and found many countries were doing better in the 1990s than the UK has managed to date.
The charity's chief executive has urged political leaders to commit to tackling the "shameful" survival rates ahead of the General Election.
Lucky BJO told us it is leading the world, otherwise we might think we are in trouble.
Cancer is a ticking time bomb of public anger in the UK. It's such a total deception - look at that poor boy the NHS were basically set to watch die, brought back to health in Romania of all places. Little wonder they wanted the parents arrested and the boy dragged back to his death bed. People are ceasing to believe in terminal cancer, and nor should they.
"look at that poor boy the NHS were basically set to watch die,"
Point 1) Ashya King was not dying. He was ill, yes, but not dying. Southampton General had removed the tumour, and AIUI the conflict came over the continuing care to improve long-term survival chances. That is not 'basically set to watch die'.
Point 2) With the therapy the NHS wanted to give, he had a 70-80% chance of living five years. That is not 'basically set to watch die'.
The clinic is in Prague. The Czech Republic is a very technologically advanced society.
I'd never claim otherwise. But that still doesn't make the claim that the NHS were basically watching him die in the least bit true.
That was never the claim. The claim was that the NHS were denying treatment that would have allow this boy's quality of life to not be damaged by broad radiation. No one has explained why, when the NHS are planning to build their own proton therapy centres, they denied this family on the basis that it would be ineffective.
Defenders such as yourself have continually failed to address this point.If the NHS is building its own proton thingies, why doesn't it have arrangements with foreign health care services to use theirs in the interim.
24.3.15 LAB 292 (291) CON 271(271) LD 30(30) UKIP 2(3) Others 55(55) (Ed is crap is PM) Last weeks BJESUS in brackets BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) Using current polling adjusted for 43 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
I object to 0% inflation 2 years into what is supposed to be a recovery.
So you've changed your tune, then? I seem to recall, when I asked which government in the developed world you thought had actually done better than Osborne, that you first tried to evade the question and then, when pressed, reluctantly pointed to the free-market, über-capitalist, hire-and-fire US as the best model. I take it you now object to their inflation figures too?
"The Coalition is full of boom and Ed Miliband is bust."
I'm surprised with all the psephologists here assembled no one has spotted the gaping hole in your ARSE. As it's impossible for you to be doing your own constituency polling you must be working off the readings of other published pollsters.
But in the last week there weren't any and according to ELBOW Labour have inched ahead.
So how is it possible to extrapolate the loss of Enfield from that data?
I know your reputation is based on some stunning US predictions but there every state was measured daily. I worry your UK efforts might be less psephology and rather more Gypsy Rose-lee
Whatever the precise chances of the poor boy's survival, the whole situation was a terrible abuse of government power. The European Arrest Warrant was used to arrest and hold his parents who were guilty of no crime and suspected of no crime. Suitable limits on the EAW to protect basic rights of individuals should be one of the foremost things on David Cameron's renegotiation list.
I don't want to comment on the specific case, but there is a general dilemma - if the authorities believe that parents are acting against the best interest of a child, there comes a point where they have to intervene to protect the child. I don't think this is even controversial - surely we all agree that if the parents e.g. refuse to let the kid have a vital life-saving injection then they should be told to stand aside.
The question is where to draw the line and how far we allow parents to override clinical judgment (we need to recognise that if they disagree with the doctors, they will sometimes be right but often wrong). It's genuinely difficult, in the same sort of way as decisions on taking children into care are difficult. There are not necessarily any villains involved - everyone is usually anxious to do the best thing for the kid.
Comments
You couldn't make it up.
0% inflation in a recovery? That's a canary in a coalmine not an opportunity to wave pom-poms.
It must just be taking them a few minutes to work out when it was last this low.
BJO says its a disaster to be in deflation.
It is ironic that Osborne has followed the Ed Balls strategy of reducing the deficit over ten years rather than five with some Keynesian expansion on infrastructure. Ed Balls doesn't feel he can point this out. "GO has failed. He has followed my plan". How frustrating.
The other irony is that avoiding a triple dip recession and today's reasonable growth has a significant contribution from the larger than planned immigration which has added significantly to population and GDP. I don't know why Ed Balls doesn't point this out.
Bad - keeps real value of debts high, indicates weak demand, outright deflation can lead to a downward spiral, weak nominal wage growth, in a market of stagnant prices eventually earnings growth can only come from shaking out workers.
I'll put it on record that if the Tories somehow get in in May that there will be signs of recession by Q4 2015 if Osborne follows through with the plans implied in the damp squib of a budget.
48 hr gap in election coverage coming..
Carney says any deflation is likely to be modest and brief. I hope he is right once again.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/09/02/rotherham-abuse-researcher-diversity-course_n_5750560.html
How can they all be true ?
Inflation has masked this considerably due to external influences - firstly in positive direction thanks to commodities, then back down again thanks to Oil.
Growth has come latterly thanks to input of labour, mainly numbers of migrant workers, and Osborne abandoning plan A in 2012.
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"Stories seemed no longer judged by their importance, accuracy or appeal to those who actually bought the paper. The more important measure appeared to be the number of online visits. On 22 September Telegraph online ran a story about a woman with three breasts. One despairing executive told me that it was known this was false even before the story was published."
PETER OBORNE 17 February 2015
https://www.opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/peter-oborne/why-i-have-resigned-from-telegraph
It also creates spare revenue for those wishing to pay down debt, whilst completely negating the need for the government to increase welfare spending whilst also driving down the cost of index linked government debt.
The government's spending automatically declines.
and
One LD local paper style leaflet full of Huppert.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/32030778
I did forget that a major benefit of 0% inflation is to maintain interest rates at their current low rates (how we laugh at those City economists and admirers of Osborne who were predicting rate rises in 2011!).
Important, because as we've seen, Osborne has recklessly given up on rebalancing and his assumptions about future growth rely massively on this low bank rate being maintained!
You don't like 0.0% and I imagine you wouldn't like 30.0%. What number would you like, and why?
All we need is Gabble and Tim back and we'd have all three of the Chuckle Brothers.
In a head to head has already won by Dave backing down.Who is looking weak now?
Is Cameron a man or a mouse?
"look at that poor boy the NHS were basically set to watch die,"
Point 1) Ashya King was not dying. He was ill, yes, but not dying. Southampton General had removed the tumour, and AIUI the conflict came over the continuing care to improve long-term survival chances. That is not 'basically set to watch die'.
Point 2) With the therapy the NHS wanted to give, he had a 70-80% chance of living five years. That is not 'basically set to watch die'.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/ashya-king-this-story-isnt-quite-what-it-seems-9716486.html
The consensus in the office is that Dave is a bit ponceyboots Gaylord for only having two Shredded Wheat.
But we all know he's going to be PM after May.
Very left wing office I work in
When you are up against Ed I can understand a feeling of entitlement. It is almost imperative for the survival of the country that you succeed.
Laughing Cow up from £2 to £2.15
They all certainly feel born to rule.
Point 1) Ashya King was not dying. He was ill, yes, but not dying. Southampton General had removed the tumour, and AIUI the conflict came over the continuing care to improve long-term survival chances. That is not 'basically set to watch die'.
Point 2) With the therapy the NHS wanted to give, he had a 70-80% chance of living five years. That is not 'basically set to watch die'.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/ashya-king-this-story-isnt-quite-what-it-seems-9716486.html
The clinic is in Prague. The Czech Republic is a very technologically advanced society.
The Coalition is full of boom and Ed Miliband is bust.
Let's focus on what was asked. You objected to 0% inflation. Very well, what level of inflation would do Osborne credit? What level would you concede was a job well done?
If you can't name any such level why are you objecting to 0% and then wriggling like a salted slug when you're called on it? Are you some sort of slogan-parrotting buffoon?
Point 1) Ashya King was not dying. He was ill, yes, but not dying. Southampton General had removed the tumour, and AIUI the conflict came over the continuing care to improve long-term survival chances. That is not 'basically set to watch die'.
Point 2) With the therapy the NHS wanted to give, he had a 70-80% chance of living five years. That is not 'basically set to watch die'.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/ashya-king-this-story-isnt-quite-what-it-seems-9716486.html
Whatever the precise chances of the poor boy's survival, the whole situation was a terrible abuse of government power. The European Arrest Warrant was used to arrest and hold his parents who were guilty of no crime and suspected of no crime. Suitable limits on the EAW to protect basic rights of individuals should be one of the foremost things on David Cameron's renegotiation list.
Just saying.
I thought Dave was the one with the moobs.
All will be well, the theory of free market capitalism is that it will be self stabilizing.
( Certainly, the facts say otherwise, but the facts are wrong, and the theory is sound.)
Odd, to my eyes.
I also guess that it's the horizontal speed that does the most damage in a CFT, not the vertical drop.
But there's always hope, and it's concerning that the authorities so quickly came out with the 'little chance of survivors' quote.
I'd never claim otherwise. But that still doesn't make the claim that the NHS were basically watching him die in the least bit true.
Note they've cut it to 9-2 today.
Our poorly informed colleague was under the impression that the child was treated in Romania.
I belive, and Dr fox will I am sure correct me if I'm wrong that the NHS cautiously regards survival for 5 years after cancer teeatment as cure. At least they've told me that if I have two more clear blood tests I'll be off the surveillance register ed they won't wish me to have any more.
That was never the claim. The claim was that the NHS were denying treatment that would have allow this boy's quality of life to not be damaged by broad radiation. No one has explained why, when the NHS are planning to build their own proton therapy centres, they denied this family on the basis that it would be ineffective.
Defenders such as yourself have continually failed to address this point.
Defenders such as yourself have continually failed to address this point.
They send people they deem appropriate for Proton treatment to the USA where it costs about five tines as much as it did the kings in Prague... Why the hell is that?
Defenders such as yourself have continually failed to address this point.If the NHS is building its own proton thingies, why doesn't it have arrangements with foreign health care services to use theirs in the interim.
Winner.com have allowed me £2.04 on Labour to win Colne Valley at 66-1.
Zero inflation - productivity crisis
Anything above zero inflation - cost of living crisis
Any rate of inflation between zero and 1000% - crisis
Above 1000% - capitalists destabilizing socialist regimes like Venezuela.
"The Coalition is full of boom and Ed Miliband is bust."
I'm surprised with all the psephologists here assembled no one has spotted the gaping hole in your ARSE. As it's impossible for you to be doing your own constituency polling you must be working off the readings of other published pollsters.
But in the last week there weren't any and according to ELBOW Labour have inched ahead.
So how is it possible to extrapolate the loss of Enfield from that data?
I know your reputation is based on some stunning US predictions but there every state was measured daily. I worry your UK efforts might be less psephology and rather more Gypsy Rose-lee
The question is where to draw the line and how far we allow parents to override clinical judgment (we need to recognise that if they disagree with the doctors, they will sometimes be right but often wrong). It's genuinely difficult, in the same sort of way as decisions on taking children into care are difficult. There are not necessarily any villains involved - everyone is usually anxious to do the best thing for the kid.
That strategy could go t8ts up.