politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Monday afternoon rolling polls thread
Comments
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I realise you were deeply traumatised by the years of Gordon Brown's premiership but did you completely lose your memory of the worst financial crisis in 80 years which the Tories inherited?Roger said:So effectively a tie. How the Tories got into this position with the most favourable economy in decades just shows the real cost of Thatcher's legacy. It'll obviously take more than two generations to remove the whiff from that particular stable.
Anyway lets see if Osborne can bribe us to give them another go. You better be generous George!
This country has never been more indebted for one thing so the economic conditions in 1997, 2001 and 2005 were far better. We are suffering from Brown's disastrous legacy now.
Out of date dinosaurs who rant on about Thatcher are just so 20th Century dontcha know?
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Most of my stoodent days drinking holes were burned down in the Cowgate fire - shame.Carnyx said:0 -
ed = Devon Loch, if he ever gets that far in front in the first place.MarqueeMark said:
It is starting to feel that the Tories really do have their nose in front, going into the final furlong... Could still be a photo finish, but more likely for Ed to fall off... I'm imagining him stood in the middle of the course as the Tories canter past the winning post, Labour's loose horse galloping off to do another circuit.Easterross said:Afternoon all and Lord Ashcroft's 2% Tory lead this afternoon is the first time he has recorded 3 consecutive Tory leads.
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Polling observatory is forecasting 60 LAB gains from CON then looks to me or so.0
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Are the ICM tables out yet ?0
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Don't take this personally, but I'd trust Kellner's judgement on these things more than I would yours.JWisemann said:
Another piece of wishful thinking from an arch-Blairite joke based on data points nearly twenty years old at the youngest?rottenborough said:
The rule of thumb is that Tory governments gain (and Lab opposition lose) a handful of percentage points in the final part of campaign (according to Peter Kelner). So neck-and-neck would seem a fairly good place for Tories to be in during March.
Of course as this is the weirdest election since at least 1974, who knows?
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Mr. D, such ads are the work of Satan. It's bloody obnoxious, not unlike a door-knocker or cold caller.0
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Hengist
Well what a pity the country haven't picked up on it and it looks like you have actually managed to lose about 10% in the last five years. Quite an achievement. I was going to give you some pro bono advice and suggest you public ally horse whip IDS but it's too late. Even George's hands are tied. Any largesse at this budget and the Labour soup kitchen posters will come out with a vengeance0 -
Is thre some more marginals polling coming out this week ?0
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I have now analysed the switching data from the latest Ashcroft polls (table 4).
It shows that 20% of 2010 Tory voters are switching to UKIP and 3% to Green
5% of 2010 Lab voters are switching to UKIP and 5% to Green.
25% of 2010 LD voters are switching to Lab, 17% to Green!, 13% to Con and 9% to UKIP.
It is only a small sample (500 excluding DK/WS etc) so I'm not taking it as gospel. However I have tweaked my matrix switching model a bit in that direction.
The results are:
Con 263 seats
Lab 283 seats
LD 29 seats
UKIP 2 seats
Green 1 seat
SNP 51 seats
Not much change.
Broxtowe 8% Lab majority (4,000)
Bermondsey 8% LD majority (3,500)
Sutton & Cheam 3% Con majority (1,500)0 -
Punters should take note that they are forecasting only 3 UKIP seats. This is very significant because Rob Ford is one of the four academics behind the forecast.Pulpstar said:Polling observatory is forecasting 60 LAB gains from CON then looks to me or so.
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What are a babbling about you you demented old fool......Roger said:Hengist
Well what a pity the country haven't picked up on it and it looks like you have actually managed to lose about 10% in the last five years. Quite an achievement. I was going to give you some pro bono advice and suggest you public ally horse whip IDS but it's too late. Even George's hands are tied. Any largesse at this budget and the Labour soup kitchen posters will come out with a vengeance0 -
So, more of the same from Labour then?Grandiose said:
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 1h1 hour agoScott_P said:Bye, bye Len?
@PaulBrandITV: All kicking off in Halifax, where it looks as though Unite's Karie Murphy has been kept off longlist of candidates to replace @Linda_Riordan
Halifax MP Linda Riordan has written to Lab general secretary alleging "underhand and anti-democratic manipulation" in Halifax selection0 -
Well the 3-4 UKIP seat bet was a very good price at 7-1 I reckon.Richard_Nabavi said:
Punters should take note that they are forecasting only 3 UKIP seats. This is very significant because Rob Ford is one of the four academics behind the forecast.Pulpstar said:Polling observatory is forecasting 60 LAB gains from CON then looks to me or so.
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Polls....It basically neck and neck isn't.0
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Tories ahead by an INCH.FrancisUrquhart said:Polls....It basically neck and neck isn't.
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On the face of it they've done the sort of analysis that should identify local areas of UKIP strength:Richard_Nabavi said:
Punters should take note that they are forecasting only 3 UKIP seats. This is very significant because Rob Ford is one of the four academics behind the forecast.Pulpstar said:Polling observatory is forecasting 60 LAB gains from CON then looks to me or so.
It would be interesting to know how many close second places their model predicts for UKIP, though.Polling Observatory said:To calculate the distribution for the deviations from uniform swing for Ukip, we used the distribution of swings to Ukip in the 2014 European Parliament election.
This is not a perfect proxy for the general election, but it gives us a better idea as to the distribution of Ukip swings than the last general election – the overall rise in UKIP support between 2009 and 2014 in European elections (10.6 percentage points) is fairly similar to the rise in Ukip support we are currently seeing in election polls.0 -
IF this poll is accurate then the Conservatives have basically maintained their share of the vote since 2010. Given that they have certainly lost some voters to UKIP that would be a remarkable achievement (didn't I read on here that no governing party has increased its vote share at the subsequent election since 1386 or some such).GIN1138 said:
I think Con holding at 36% and keeping a lead with ICM is probably the big news of the day...MaxPB said:Con still on 36 with ICM which shows the last poll probably wasn't an outlier.
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9/2 available on the Tories at Hill's, or 4/1 chez Fred. Given what seems to be a Labour shambles just a few weeks before the big day, those have got to be value - Shadsy has already cut his odds sharply.Grandiose said:Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 1h1 hour ago
Halifax MP Linda Riordan has written to Lab general secretary alleging "underhand and anti-democratic manipulation" in Halifax selection0 -
I somehow doubt they all switched over the C4 to watch the Great Canal Journeys program :-)TGOHF said:Telegraph suggesting BBC2 lost 4m viewers in the Top Gear slot this Sunday.
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Where that inch = phone polls.Pulpstar said:
Tories ahead by an INCH.FrancisUrquhart said:Polls....It basically neck and neck isn't.
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MaxPB said:
"Con still on 36 with ICM which shows the last poll probably wasn't an outlier.
I think Con holding at 36% and keeping a lead with ICM is probably the big news of the day..."
Gin
if your idea of progress is to go from 31-36 to 35-36 in a month then you have plenty to look forward to in the next three months!0 -
Remarkably close to my finger in the air effort this afternoon.Barnesian said:I have now analysed the switching data from the latest Ashcroft polls (table 4).
It shows that 20% of 2010 Tory voters are switching to UKIP and 3% to Green
5% of 2010 Lab voters are switching to UKIP and 5% to Green.
25% of 2010 LD voters are switching to Lab, 17% to Green!, 13% to Con and 9% to UKIP.
It is only a small sample (500 excluding DK/WS etc) so I'm not taking it as gospel. However I have tweaked my matrix switching model a bit in that direction.
The results are:
Con 263 seats
Lab 283 seats
LD 29 seats
UKIP 2 seats
Green 1 seat
SNP 51 seats
Not much change.
Broxtowe 8% Lab majority (4,000)
Bermondsey 8% LD majority (3,500)
Sutton & Cheam 3% Con majority (1,500)0 -
Shadsy is 3-10, that's arbable and generally he is on the right side of arbs. So yes definitely value @ 9-2.Richard_Nabavi said:
9/2 available on the Tories at Hill's, or 4/1 chez Fred. Given what seems to a Labour shambles just a few weeks before the big day, those have got to be value - Shadsy has already cut his odds sharply.Grandiose said:Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 1h1 hour ago
Halifax MP Linda Riordan has written to Lab general secretary alleging "underhand and anti-democratic manipulation" in Halifax selection0 -
It shows how strange this election is when most seats is a win - surely a win is a majorityScott_P said:@GoodwinMJ: A new academic forecast has entered mix. Contrary to five other forecasts, its first projection is a Labour win http://t.co/Skx5TIPnAr
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"Win" is being able to form the next Gov't, so it doesn't even need to be a win on seats for Labour. But perhaps it does for Ed...Big_G_NorthWales said:
It shows how strange this election is when most seats is a win - surely a win is a majorityScott_P said:@GoodwinMJ: A new academic forecast has entered mix. Contrary to five other forecasts, its first projection is a Labour win http://t.co/Skx5TIPnAr
All 3 leaders out at 10-1 with Shadsy before year end is a must addition to anyone's portfolio imo.0 -
Yes, the Conservatives are 1% ahead, on average, in 'phone polls, and with Yougov.OblitusSumMe said:
Where that inch = phone polls.Pulpstar said:
Tories ahead by an INCH.FrancisUrquhart said:Polls....It basically neck and neck isn't.
Labour lead with the rest.0 -
Whoever becomes PM wins.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It shows how strange this election is when most seats is a win - surely a win is a majorityScott_P said:@GoodwinMJ: A new academic forecast has entered mix. Contrary to five other forecasts, its first projection is a Labour win http://t.co/Skx5TIPnAr
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I was thinking about recently. I'm not sure it's necessarily right that a messy result means the leaders are out on their ear. If we end up with an unstable result, with no viable government being possible, then it would be quite dangerous for either of the big parties to start trying to switch leader - they might get caught with their pants down by a sudden GE. To a lesser extent, the same applies to the LibDems.Pulpstar said:"Win" is being able to form the next Gov't, so it doesn't even need to be a win on seats for Labour. But perhaps it does for Ed...
All 3 leaders out at 10-1 with Shadsy before year end is a must addition to anyone's portfolio imo.0 -
A win is who forms the government. That's not necessarily a majority and it's not necessarily most seats.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It shows how strange this election is when most seats is a win - surely a win is a majorityScott_P said:@GoodwinMJ: A new academic forecast has entered mix. Contrary to five other forecasts, its first projection is a Labour win http://t.co/Skx5TIPnAr
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Interesting that you describe "the most favourable economy in decades"Roger said:So effectively a tie. How the Tories got into this position with the most favourable economy in decades just shows the real cost of Thatcher's legacy. It'll obviously take more than two generations to remove the whiff from that particular stable.
Anyway lets see if Osborne can bribe us to give them another go. You better be generous George!
Quite a turnaround from the 2009 biggest slump in decades.
If even you are agreeing that Osborne and Alexander have fixed things...
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"Win" is being able to form the next Gov't, so it doesn't even need to be a win on seats for Labour. But perhaps it does for Ed...
I think Ed will just be content to take a drive down the Mall in a Jag and to meet herMaj0 -
What bet do you suggest?Richard_Nabavi said:
Punters should take note that they are forecasting only 3 UKIP seats. This is very significant because Rob Ford is one of the four academics behind the forecast.Pulpstar said:Polling observatory is forecasting 60 LAB gains from CON then looks to me or so.
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Minority Labour government with another election this year. Possible even under the 5 year legislation.Barnesian said:I have now analysed the switching data from the latest Ashcroft polls (table 4).
It shows that 20% of 2010 Tory voters are switching to UKIP and 3% to Green
5% of 2010 Lab voters are switching to UKIP and 5% to Green.
25% of 2010 LD voters are switching to Lab, 17% to Green!, 13% to Con and 9% to UKIP.
It is only a small sample (500 excluding DK/WS etc) so I'm not taking it as gospel. However I have tweaked my matrix switching model a bit in that direction.
The results are:
Con 263 seats
Lab 283 seats
LD 29 seats
UKIP 2 seats
Green 1 seat
SNP 51 seats
Not much change.
Broxtowe 8% Lab majority (4,000)
Bermondsey 8% LD majority (3,500)
Sutton & Cheam 3% Con majority (1,500)
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I suggest being cautious on UKIP wins and not getting over-exposed.isam said:
What bet do you suggest?Richard_Nabavi said:
Punters should take note that they are forecasting only 3 UKIP seats. This is very significant because Rob Ford is one of the four academics behind the forecast.Pulpstar said:Polling observatory is forecasting 60 LAB gains from CON then looks to me or so.
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It is really not that suprising. Take Gillian Duffy for example, repeatedly branded a bigot by Labour MPs over the years yet still votes for them.NickPalmer said:Another poll showing a virtual tie - we can probably agree that both the previous ICM and the previous Populus were probably outliers.
I do think it's striking that 52% say they "like the Labour Party". I wouldn't have expected that most people these days would feel emotionally attached to any party.
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Ed "Ramsey McDonald" Miliband0
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Have YOU voted for Britain's national bird?0
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Too late for that!!Richard_Nabavi said:
I suggest being cautious on UKIP wins and not getting over-exposed.isam said:
What bet do you suggest?Richard_Nabavi said:
Punters should take note that they are forecasting only 3 UKIP seats. This is very significant because Rob Ford is one of the four academics behind the forecast.Pulpstar said:Polling observatory is forecasting 60 LAB gains from CON then looks to me or so.
11/4 is probably still a good price for 3-4 seats if you think they'll only get 30 -
Paging bigjohnOblitusSumMe said:Have YOU voted for Britain's national bird?
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antifrank said:
A win is who forms the government. That's not necessarily a majority and it's not necessarily most seats.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It shows how strange this election is when most seats is a win - surely a win is a majorityScott_P said:@GoodwinMJ: A new academic forecast has entered mix. Contrary to five other forecasts, its first projection is a Labour win http://t.co/Skx5TIPnAr
Back in the real world, a win is getting your policies implemented. A minority government will find it hard to do so.0 -
"Interesting that you describe "the most favourable economy in decades"
Quite a turnaround from the 2009 biggest slump in decades.
If even you are agreeing that Osborne and Alexander have fixed things..."
I've no idea. All I know is that from unearned income I'm much wealthier than I was in 2010 which I imagine some disabled pleb on benefits is paying for. It's the Tory way......
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My UKIP book goes quite bad if they only hold Clacton, but my Scottish book dwarfs it.0
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I will top up my 3-4 seat bet as it is good value in my opinion. I was fortunate enough to get on at 9/1.isam said:
Too late for that!!Richard_Nabavi said:
I suggest being cautious on UKIP wins and not getting over-exposed.isam said:
What bet do you suggest?Richard_Nabavi said:
Punters should take note that they are forecasting only 3 UKIP seats. This is very significant because Rob Ford is one of the four academics behind the forecast.Pulpstar said:Polling observatory is forecasting 60 LAB gains from CON then looks to me or so.
11/4 is probably still a good price for 3-4 seats if you think they'll only get 3
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Yeah but for betting purposes ;pDavid_Evershed said:antifrank said:
A win is who forms the government. That's not necessarily a majority and it's not necessarily most seats.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It shows how strange this election is when most seats is a win - surely a win is a majorityScott_P said:@GoodwinMJ: A new academic forecast has entered mix. Contrary to five other forecasts, its first projection is a Labour win http://t.co/Skx5TIPnAr
Back in the real world, a win is getting your policies implemented. A minority government will find it hard to do so.0 -
Yes, I think there's a market for a tool to silence adverts only. (Working title: STFU )MikeSmithson said:
Blame Paul Staines who runs MessagespaceRobD said:Mike - while you are on. I'm starting to get adverts with audio which you can't stop without muting the entire computer. Anything you can do about this - are you able to chose less obtrusive ads?
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Can anyone reconcile Polling Observatory to the other academic models?
All seem to have a similar methodology so why is Polling Observatory producing such a different result?0 -
same thingMarqueeMark said:0 -
Write a cheque to the tax man if it pains you so much. They will quite happily accept it.Roger said:
"Interesting that you describe "the most favourable economy in decades"
Quite a turnaround from the 2009 biggest slump in decades.
If even you are agreeing that Osborne and Alexander have fixed things..."
I've no idea. All I know is that from unearned income I'm much wealthier than I was in 2010 which I imagine some disabled pleb on benefits is paying for. It's the Tory way......0 -
She's a good example of someone who the worse you treat them, the more they like you.MP_SE said:
It is really not that suprising. Take Gillian Duffy for example, repeatedly branded a bigot by Labour MPs over the years yet still votes for them.NickPalmer said:Another poll showing a virtual tie - we can probably agree that both the previous ICM and the previous Populus were probably outliers.
I do think it's striking that 52% say they "like the Labour Party". I wouldn't have expected that most people these days would feel emotionally attached to any party.
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Not exactly.....malcolmg said:
same thingMarqueeMark said:0 -
malcolmg said:
same thingMarqueeMark said:0 -
Vote for free Owls!RobD said:
Paging bigjohnOblitusSumMe said:Have YOU voted for Britain's national bird?
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Roger.. the great PB socialist is quite happy to be better off from taking money away from some disabled pleb on benefits... and blames the Tories...WHAAAATT..0
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Lol.Sean_F said:
She's a good example of someone who the worse you treat them, the more they like you.MP_SE said:
It is really not that suprising. Take Gillian Duffy for example, repeatedly branded a bigot by Labour MPs over the years yet still votes for them.NickPalmer said:Another poll showing a virtual tie - we can probably agree that both the previous ICM and the previous Populus were probably outliers.
I do think it's striking that 52% say they "like the Labour Party". I wouldn't have expected that most people these days would feel emotionally attached to any party.
When Mrs D stops voting Labour you know they are in trouble. Looks like she is tempted by UKIP. That will be Labour's downfall, the exodus of the WWC to UKIP.
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I think TSE asked me to give him my vote so he could try to get Karen Danczuk to win.RobD said:
Paging bigjohnOblitusSumMe said:Have YOU voted for Britain's national bird?
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I'd imagine that's from asset price inflation, more than income. That results from QE and low interest rates, on which Labour policy differs not at all from Con.Roger said:
"Interesting that you describe "the most favourable economy in decades"
Quite a turnaround from the 2009 biggest slump in decades.
If even you are agreeing that Osborne and Alexander have fixed things..."
I've no idea. All I know is that from unearned income I'm much wealthier than I was in 2010 which I imagine some disabled pleb on benefits is paying for. It's the Tory way......0 -
Mr. Foxinsox, has Mr. Owls been imprisoned?!0
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No Labour leads so far today?
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Mr. Owls, the free Owls policy suddenly becomes clear!0
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We've pretty much now reached the vote shares (for Conservative and Labour) that Polling Observatory is predicting on the day.
The difference with other forecasters is that the latter expect continued slow movement towards the Conservatives0 -
I'm starting to think that Ed is nothing like the buffoon many think he is. He's ruled out all possibility of letting the SNP into government.
What does it tell us? Absolutely nothing except that he looks like a major player. He's moving from a rather absurd no hoper into a PM in waiting. In one swipe he diminishes Nicola to a petty provincial council leader. I'd be surprised if it doesn't do Labour some good in Scotland too0 -
I think that UKIP dont know their best prospects yet themselves (the Southend Railway constituencies excepted), but neither do their opponents.Richard_Nabavi said:
I suggest being cautious on UKIP wins and not getting over-exposed.isam said:
What bet do you suggest?Richard_Nabavi said:
Punters should take note that they are forecasting only 3 UKIP seats. This is very significant because Rob Ford is one of the four academics behind the forecast.Pulpstar said:Polling observatory is forecasting 60 LAB gains from CON then looks to me or so.
I think there will be surprises. Possibly in Anglophone Wales. But who knows where? If there is a second election soon then I expect better targeting by both kippers and their opponents.
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All he has ruled out is a coalition. He has not ruled out supply and confidence, which most English voters would see as cash for "ayes", unless he does rule this out too, as Cameron has, it will poison Labours relationship with English voters.Roger said:I'm starting to think that Ed is nothing like the buffoon many think he is. He's ruled out all possibility of letting the SNP into government.
What does it tell us? Absolutely nothing except that he's a major player. He's moving from a rather absurd no hoper into a PM in waiting. In one swipe he diminishes Nicola to a petty provincial council leader. I'd be surprised if it doesn't do Labour some good in Scotland
(the cash being English taxpayers cash disappearing into Scotland in return for supporting Labour motions in Parliament that won't be applied to Scotland as they have devolved powers on most of the matters).0 -
Pb.com. The home of mildly inappropriate banter.0
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I'll eat my hat if Labour poll 35% on the day. With almost half of all Labour voters not rating him they're at risk, even more than usual, of their vote not turning out where it matters.Sean_F said:We've pretty much now reached the vote shares (for Conservative and Labour) that Polling Observatory is predicting on the day.
The difference with other forecasters is that the latter expect continued slow movement towards the Conservatives
However, and on the credit side for Labour, the Tories have lost an awful lot of ground activists over the last 5 years.0 -
Southend Railway?foxinsoxuk said:
I think that UKIP dont know their best prospects yet themselves (the Southend Railway constituencies excepted), but neither do their opponents.Richard_Nabavi said:
I suggest being cautious on UKIP wins and not getting over-exposed.isam said:
What bet do you suggest?Richard_Nabavi said:
Punters should take note that they are forecasting only 3 UKIP seats. This is very significant because Rob Ford is one of the four academics behind the forecast.Pulpstar said:Polling observatory is forecasting 60 LAB gains from CON then looks to me or so.
I think there will be surprises. Possibly in Anglophone Wales. But who knows where? If there is a second election soon then I expect better targeting by both kippers and their opponents.0 -
Polling Observatory predict 33.7% apiece, on the day.Casino_Royale said:
I'll eat my hat if Labour poll 35% on the day. With almost half of all Labour voters not rating him they're at risk, even more than usual, of their vote not turning out where it matters.Sean_F said:We've pretty much now reached the vote shares (for Conservative and Labour) that Polling Observatory is predicting on the day.
The difference with other forecasters is that the latter expect continued slow movement towards the Conservatives
However, and on the credit side for Labour, the Tories have lost an awful lot of ground activists over the last 5 years.
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Mr. Royale, nonsense. It's the home of differential front end grip.0
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One does wonder what Labour would have to do to put that half of the population off them. I find it simply astonishing.Sean_F said:
She's a good example of someone who the worse you treat them, the more they like you.MP_SE said:
It is really not that suprising. Take Gillian Duffy for example, repeatedly branded a bigot by Labour MPs over the years yet still votes for them.NickPalmer said:Another poll showing a virtual tie - we can probably agree that both the previous ICM and the previous Populus were probably outliers.
I do think it's striking that 52% say they "like the Labour Party". I wouldn't have expected that most people these days would feel emotionally attached to any party.0 -
It is possible to abbreviate urls. And to label them nsfw.0
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Roughly speaking the tories are back where they were in 2010 by replacing UKIP losses with blue Liberals and labour have gained some Red Liberals.Sean_F said:We've pretty much now reached the vote shares (for Conservative and Labour) that Polling Observatory is predicting on the day.
The difference with other forecasters is that the latter expect continued slow movement towards the Conservatives
However thats UNS. I think, crucially Tories have lost shedloads of UKIP voters in safe seats where they can afford to lose them and gained Blue Liberals in Libdem-Tory marginals like Sutton and Cheam and Somerton and Frome.
Labour have gained lots of red Liberals in safe Labour seats and Lib/Lab Marginals and lost UKIP votes in Tory/ Labour Marginals like Croydon Central
Basically the unwinding of the "Labour Bias" in the electoral system.0 -
@DPJHodges
Don't agree much with @MSmithsonPB. But you have to admire his single-handed attempts to turn the UK betting markets in Labour's favour.0 -
The Fenchurch St & Liverpool St lines...I have a half baked theory that people that commute to the City using these lines are the type to vote UKIP and the stations in Essex that they stop at are indicators of where UKIP will do wellSunil_Prasannan said:
Southend Railway?foxinsoxuk said:
I think that UKIP dont know their best prospects yet themselves (the Southend Railway constituencies excepted), but neither do their opponents.Richard_Nabavi said:
I suggest being cautious on UKIP wins and not getting over-exposed.isam said:
What bet do you suggest?Richard_Nabavi said:
Punters should take note that they are forecasting only 3 UKIP seats. This is very significant because Rob Ford is one of the four academics behind the forecast.Pulpstar said:Polling observatory is forecasting 60 LAB gains from CON then looks to me or so.
I think there will be surprises. Possibly in Anglophone Wales. But who knows where? If there is a second election soon then I expect better targeting by both kippers and their opponents.
Could say the same for Kent too
These people see the effects of mass immigration everyday without living in the areas affected.. we have seen plenty of poling that suggests opponents of immigration live in areas not affected by it, and I reckon this is a reason why0 -
Best Bird update
KD struggling as Tories vote for the chicken in droves0 -
Sky saying budget will predict growth of 3% this year and borrowing 6Bn down on forecast.0
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Oh yes of course - for some reason had the Pier Railway in mindisam said:
The Fenchurch St & Liverpool St lines...I have a half baked theory that people that commute to the City using these lines are the type to vote UKIP and the stations in Essex that they stop at are indicators of where UKIP will do wellSunil_Prasannan said:
Southend Railway?foxinsoxuk said:
I think that UKIP dont know their best prospects yet themselves (the Southend Railway constituencies excepted), but neither do their opponents.Richard_Nabavi said:
I suggest being cautious on UKIP wins and not getting over-exposed.isam said:
What bet do you suggest?Richard_Nabavi said:
Punters should take note that they are forecasting only 3 UKIP seats. This is very significant because Rob Ford is one of the four academics behind the forecast.Pulpstar said:Polling observatory is forecasting 60 LAB gains from CON then looks to me or so.
I think there will be surprises. Possibly in Anglophone Wales. But who knows where? If there is a second election soon then I expect better targeting by both kippers and their opponents.
Could say the same for Kent too
These people see the effects of mass immigration everyday without living in the areas affected.. we have seen plenty of poling that suggests opponents of immigration live in areas not affected by it, and I reckon this is a reason why
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If the polls are still showing a tie by polling day, I might expect a 1.5-2% lead in actual votes cast for the Tories.Sean_F said:
Polling Observatory predict 33.7% apiece, on the day.Casino_Royale said:
I'll eat my hat if Labour poll 35% on the day. With almost half of all Labour voters not rating him they're at risk, even more than usual, of their vote not turning out where it matters.Sean_F said:We've pretty much now reached the vote shares (for Conservative and Labour) that Polling Observatory is predicting on the day.
The difference with other forecasters is that the latter expect continued slow movement towards the Conservatives
However, and on the credit side for Labour, the Tories have lost an awful lot of ground activists over the last 5 years.0 -
No hasn't.Roger said:I'm starting to think that Ed is nothing like the buffoon many think he is. He's ruled out all possibility of letting the SNP into government.
What does it tell us? Absolutely nothing except that he looks like a major player. He's moving from a rather absurd no hoper into a PM in waiting. In one swipe he diminishes Nicola to a petty provincial council leader. I'd be surprised if it doesn't do Labour some good in Scotland too0 -
Dan the man who had a bet on ukip getting under 6% and is trying to wriggle out of it?TGOHF said:
@DPJHodges
Don't agree much with @MSmithsonPB. But you have to admire his single-handed attempts to turn the UK betting markets in Labour's favour.0 -
Once again, LD final %-age understated by Lord Ashcroft from the data his tables - should be 9% not 8.0
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If that is true, Osborne will be literally dancing around Despatch box when he announces that. I await to see what if any magical accounting has been undertaken.TGOHF said:Sky saying budget will predict growth of 3% this year and borrowing 6Bn down on forecast.
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Good evening all.
Below is a story that for all my cynicism I never expected to read: A man sent to prison for 4 months in Scotland for simply singing a song.
http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/je-suis-billy-boy-free-speech-for-football-fans/16774#.VQcfSxCsV0Q0 -
You have polling as up to date as post announcementsaddened said:
No hasn't.Roger said:I'm starting to think that Ed is nothing like the buffoon many think he is. He's ruled out all possibility of letting the SNP into government.
What does it tell us? Absolutely nothing except that he looks like a major player. He's moving from a rather absurd no hoper into a PM in waiting. In one swipe he diminishes Nicola to a petty provincial council leader. I'd be surprised if it doesn't do Labour some good in Scotland too
Please tell
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There is a big difference.Sean_F said:We've pretty much now reached the vote shares (for Conservative and Labour) that Polling Observatory is predicting on the day.
The difference with other forecasters is that the latter expect continued slow movement towards the Conservatives
May 2015 has vote shares of Con 33.2, Lab 33.1 converting to seats of Con 281, Lab 264.
Polling Observatory has vote shares of Con 33.7, Lab 33.7 converting to seats of Con 265, Lab 285
Difference in vote lead of 0.1 - but difference in seat lead of 37.0 -
Ah. Welcome to the Lump of Wealth Fallacy. We've been expecting you.Roger said:
"Interesting that you describe "the most favourable economy in decades"
Quite a turnaround from the 2009 biggest slump in decades.
If even you are agreeing that Osborne and Alexander have fixed things..."
I've no idea. All I know is that from unearned income I'm much wealthier than I was in 2010 which I imagine some disabled pleb on benefits is paying for. It's the Tory way......
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ELBOWing Populus and Ashcroft = Tories already 0.7% ahead0
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Fraser Nelson tweeting that because lab minority is the current shortest price of any outcome that makes Ed favourite to be PM.
Dolt.0 -
Why the surprise ? SNP and their statist laws running amok.MikeK said:Good evening all.
Below is a story that for all my cynicism I never expected to read: A man sent to prison for 4 months in Scotland for simply singing a song.
http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/je-suis-billy-boy-free-speech-for-football-fans/16774#.VQcfSxCsV0Q0 -
You wonder how we can have the nerve to lecture foreign governments about repressing freedom of speech.MikeK said:Good evening all.
Below is a story that for all my cynicism I never expected to read: A man sent to prison for 4 months in Scotland for simply singing a song.
http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/je-suis-billy-boy-free-speech-for-football-fans/16774#.VQcfSxCsV0Q
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If that is true, Osborne will be literally dancing around Despatch box when he announces that.
Room for some chunky giveaways?0 -
The sun is tweeting Ossie to slash taxes for shops, pubs and factories.
Looks like there is suddenly some juice.
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@faisalislam: Nov 1976, Hamish Watt, SNP MP, offers a secret deal to the Conservatives/ Thatcher... Gold from Thatcher archives: http://t.co/0kgS0jqWUm0
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There isn't, as we are still in the s##t, but hasn't stopped chancellors before.taffys said:If that is true, Osborne will be literally dancing around Despatch box when he announces that.
Room for some chunky giveaways?0
