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Turnip surge I sayEasterross said:Afternoon all and I see Malcolm is being his usual charming, inoffensive self.
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Murphy is an Ed clone , uselesschestnut said:
If I were a SNP voter, that would double my resolve to vote for them.Scott_P said:@BBCNormanS: Scottish Labour leader @jimmurphymp says Scots will punish @thesnp if they brought down a Labour Govt
Contemptible comment by Murphy.0 -
Agree about C&W but Burstows position is more precarious..Pulpstar said:
Sutton and Cheam and Carshalton and Wellington will be held even if the Lib Dems go sub 15 seats or so. Probably sub 10timmo said:The remaining rump of the LibDems are putting in a concerted effort though..
Here in Sutton where they have Brake and Burstow as MPs they have through the LD phonebank machine rung the whole constituency twice already.
Sutton and Cheam which is a target 40/40 seat is getting visits from cabinet ministers galore by the Tories and there is a real Stalingrad feel to the fight on the street. In C&W its much more low key with most pundits expecting a comfortable win for Brake.
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Not at all..TGOHF said:
Oooh handbag.isam said:
What a ridiculous thing to say! The reason it isn't nearer to 15 is because they weight to 2010 vote, which seems a bit stale to me.TGOHF said:
If that 9 had been a 15 we wouldn't be having this conversation. ICM did well last time.isam said:
I wouldn't say any pollster is biased, and as that is a banning offence on here I'd like you to retract that insinuation if you would?TGOHF said:isam said:
Weighting to 2010 vote is like weighting Harry Kane's goals to his 2013/14 ratioPulpstar said:Lib Dems on 8% with ICM is like being on 5 or 6% with other opinion pollsters.
Damn biased pollsters !MikeK said:
It's all Crystal Ball gazing.Sunil_Prasannan said:FPT:
1 extra Tory respondent in YouGov was all it took!Pulpstar said:
So there was in fact crossover last weekSunil_Prasannan said:
YouGov/Sunday Times spoilt a potential Lab/Con ELBOW lead of 0.00% yesterday! (ended up 0.01% Tory lead!)Pulpstar said:
Yes down to the last 0.00%.DavidL said:
Zero?Greenwich_Floater said:What are the chances of all 4 polls coming out today showing a tory lead
If I was a layer - I be offering 3/1
To be a player - I would want 5/1
Wasn't Populus a draw?
33.52% each.
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Final weekly ELBOW tallies:
4,348 Con =33.17%
4,347 Lab =33.16%
1,944 UKIP = 14.83%
969 LD = 7.39%
744 Green = 5.68%
Total weighted sample from 11 polls =13,108
In fact my crystal ball - I actually have a genuine one at home - shows much clearer mud, than all the pollsters do.
But weighting UKIP and the Lib Dems to their 2010 result is nonsense in my opinion
But you have a meme to push, for your own sanity no doubt, press on
No retraction of accusing me of saying the pollster was biased?
Want to make a bet on UKIP under/over 9%?0 -
Carshalton and Wellington safer than Eastleigh, Orkney and Shetland according to May2015 and election forecast.0
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The really interesting one is Bermondsey. My instinct is that a continued strong personal vote will see Hughes over the line, but it's touch and go - Labour seem to be doing really well in the inner-London suburbs.Pulpstar said:
Sutton and Cheam and Carshalton and Wellington will be held even if the Lib Dems go sub 15 seats or so. Probably sub 10timmo said:The remaining rump of the LibDems are putting in a concerted effort though..
Here in Sutton where they have Brake and Burstow as MPs they have through the LD phonebank machine rung the whole constituency twice already.
Sutton and Cheam which is a target 40/40 seat is getting visits from cabinet ministers galore by the Tories and there is a real Stalingrad feel to the fight on the street. In C&W its much more low key with most pundits expecting a comfortable win for Brake.0 -
It looks like a big switch from Green to Labour. Although I think that 4% and 9% are the irreducible minimum for the Greens and UKIP respectively, and the two big parties will have to take votes off each other to achieve a decisive lead with ICM.DavidL said:Very mixed ICM for the Tories. On the one hand to hold 36% is very impressive suggesting that their share of the vote might even go up in May. On the other Labour are right on their tails and going to gain a shedload of seats to offset the disaster in Scotland.
This is heading for a serious guddle, probably with Labour as the largest party but it is going to be too close to form a credible government with.0 -
Of course, Mr Artist. With the Lib Dem machine starting to get into gear, peope are remembering that the Lib Dems have been in government for the last five years. And behaving responsibly.Artist said:People still quite like the Lib Dems then?
And they are being reminded that a lot of the things that they like about this Government came about because of the Lib Dems.
They are also being reminded that a Conservative Government by itself would have been a very different kettle of fish. And the good thing is that that is what the Tories are campaigning on. Keep going, you Tories.
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You didn't say biased - apologies. But a robust examination of the methodology coincided with another poor poll score for your party.isam said:
Not at all..TGOHF said:
Oooh handbag.isam said:
What a ridiculous thing to say! The reason it isn't nearer to 15 is because they weight to 2010 vote, which seems a bit stale to me.TGOHF said:
If that 9 had been a 15 we wouldn't be having this conversation. ICM did well last time.isam said:
I wouldn't say any pollster is biased, and as that is a banning offence on here I'd like you to retract that insinuation if you would?TGOHF said:isam said:
Weighting to 2010 vote is like weighting Harry Kane's goals to his 2013/14 ratioPulpstar said:Lib Dems on 8% with ICM is like being on 5 or 6% with other opinion pollsters.
Damn biased pollsters !MikeK said:
It's all Crystal Ball gazing.Sunil_Prasannan said:FPT:
1 extra Tory respondent in YouGov was all it took!Pulpstar said:
So there was in fact crossover last weekSunil_Prasannan said:
YouGov/Sunday Times spoilt a potential Lab/Con ELBOW lead of 0.00% yesterday! (ended up 0.01% Tory lead!)Pulpstar said:
Yes down to the last 0.00%.DavidL said:
Zero?Greenwich_Floater said:What are the chances of all 4 polls coming out today showing a tory lead
If I was a layer - I be offering 3/1
To be a player - I would want 5/1
Wasn't Populus a draw?
33.52% each. ?
Final weekly ELBOW tallies:
4,348 Con =33.17%
4,347 Lab =33.16%
1,944 UKIP = 14.83%
969 LD = 7.39%
744 Green = 5.68%
Total weighted sample from 11 polls =13,108
In fact my crystal ball - I actually have a genuine one at home - shows much clearer mud, than all the pollsters do.
But weighting UKIP and the Lib Dems to their 2010 result is nonsense in my opinion
But you have a meme to push, for your own sanity no doubt, press on
No retraction of accusing me of saying the pollster was biased?
Want to make a bet on UKIP under/over 9%?
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Looks like we are past peak Green.0
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I think that is unfair. He's got much better presentational skills, but he just seems to be rather too New Labour for Scottish tastes.malcolmg said:
Murphy is an Ed clone , uselesschestnut said:
If I were a SNP voter, that would double my resolve to vote for them.Scott_P said:@BBCNormanS: Scottish Labour leader @jimmurphymp says Scots will punish @thesnp if they brought down a Labour Govt
Contemptible comment by Murphy.0 -
Different Green party in Scotland anyway.Pulpstar said:
Greens and SNP to run close, but I think the Greens will get more votes.bondegezou said:
The more interesting comparison is Greens vs. SNP. Could be about equal on votes, while the SNP get 50 times as many seats. Ah, the delights of FPTP...Pulpstar said:Odds on SNP to get more votes than the Lib Dems ?
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Do you think weighting to when UKIP got 3% is a wise move in assessing where they are now? Or things much the same as 2010?TGOHF said:
You didn't say biased - apologies. But a robust examination of the methodology coincided with another poor poll score for your party.isam said:
Not at all..TGOHF said:
Oooh handbag.isam said:
What a ridiculous thing to say! The reason it isn't nearer to 15 is because they weight to 2010 vote, which seems a bit stale to me.TGOHF said:
If that 9 had been a 15 we wouldn't be having this conversation. ICM did well last time.isam said:
I wouldn't say any pollster is biased, and as that is a banning offence on here I'd like you to retract that insinuation if you would?TGOHF said:isam said:
Weighting to 2010 vote is like weighting Harry Kane's goals to his 2013/14 ratioPulpstar said:Lib Dems on 8% with ICM is like being on 5 or 6% with other opinion pollsters.
Damn biased pollsters !MikeK said:
It's all Crystal Ball gazing.Sunil_Prasannan said:FPT:
1 extra Tory respondent in YouGov was all it took!Pulpstar said:
So there was in fact crossover last weekSunil_Prasannan said:
YouGov/Sunday Times spoilt a potential Lab/Con ELBOW lead of 0.00% yesterday! (ended up 0.01% Tory lead!)Pulpstar said:
Yes down to the last 0.00%.DavidL said:
Zero?Greenwich_Floater said:What are the chances of all 4 polls coming out today showing a tory lead
If I was a layer - I be offering 3/1
To be a player - I would want 5/1
Wasn't Populus a draw?
33.52% each. ?
Final weekly ELBOW tallies:
4,348 Con =33.17%
4,347 Lab =33.16%
1,944 UKIP = 14.83%
969 LD = 7.39%
744 Green = 5.68%
Total weighted sample from 11 polls =13,108
In fact my crystal ball - I actually have a genuine one at home - shows much clearer mud, than all the pollsters do.
But weighting UKIP and the Lib Dems to their 2010 result is nonsense in my opinion
But you have a meme to push, for your own sanity no doubt, press on
No retraction of accusing me of saying the pollster was biased?
Want to make a bet on UKIP under/over 9%?0 -
New LabourThomasNashe said:
I think that is unfair. He's got much better presentational skills, but he just seems to be rather too New Labour for Scottish tastes.malcolmg said:
Murphy is an Ed clone , uselesschestnut said:
If I were a SNP voter, that would double my resolve to vote for them.Scott_P said:@BBCNormanS: Scottish Labour leader @jimmurphymp says Scots will punish @thesnp if they brought down a Labour Govt
Contemptible comment by Murphy.
Glue danger0 -
But still useless, just a bit less with shouty words, and would sell his granny like EdThomasNashe said:
I think that is unfair. He's got much better presentational skills, but he just seems to be rather too New Labour for Scottish tastes.malcolmg said:
Murphy is an Ed clone , uselesschestnut said:
If I were a SNP voter, that would double my resolve to vote for them.Scott_P said:@BBCNormanS: Scottish Labour leader @jimmurphymp says Scots will punish @thesnp if they brought down a Labour Govt
Contemptible comment by Murphy.0 -
Very good!Pulpstar said:
New LabourThomasNashe said:
I think that is unfair. He's got much better presentational skills, but he just seems to be rather too New Labour for Scottish tastes.malcolmg said:
Murphy is an Ed clone , uselesschestnut said:
If I were a SNP voter, that would double my resolve to vote for them.Scott_P said:@BBCNormanS: Scottish Labour leader @jimmurphymp says Scots will punish @thesnp if they brought down a Labour Govt
Contemptible comment by Murphy.
Glue danger0 -
I want to see th tables of this Ashcroft poll and the obviously enourmous SNP subsample.Carnyx said:
Different Green party in Scotland anyway.Pulpstar said:
Greens and SNP to run close, but I think the Greens will get more votes.bondegezou said:
The more interesting comparison is Greens vs. SNP. Could be about equal on votes, while the SNP get 50 times as many seats. Ah, the delights of FPTP...Pulpstar said:Odds on SNP to get more votes than the Lib Dems ?
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I like to think of polling error as being of three main categories:
1. Sampling error: derived from the random selection of a limited sample of individuals from a larger group ("margin of error"); or the non-random selection of those individuals, e.g. those with landlines or disproportionately politically interested.
2. Introduced error: quotas designed to reduce type 1 errors are miscalculated, or their effect is to boost the error within a particular subset on which reliance is placed; calculation errors, rounding effects; changes of methodology.
3. Pollster's call: the poll is correct, but asks the wrong question, or is presented wrongly (constituency questions, for example); responses are inaccurate (the "shy Tory") or do not reflect ballots in boxes (turnout weighting, past voting).0 -
Sutton, Carshalton, Twickenham, and Bermondsey will all be Lib Dem holds in London, IMHO.ThomasNashe said:
The really interesting one is Bermondsey. My instinct is that a continued strong personal vote will see Hughes over the line, but it's touch and go - Labour seem to be doing really well in the inner-London suburbs.Pulpstar said:
Sutton and Cheam and Carshalton and Wellington will be held even if the Lib Dems go sub 15 seats or so. Probably sub 10timmo said:The remaining rump of the LibDems are putting in a concerted effort though..
Here in Sutton where they have Brake and Burstow as MPs they have through the LD phonebank machine rung the whole constituency twice already.
Sutton and Cheam which is a target 40/40 seat is getting visits from cabinet ministers galore by the Tories and there is a real Stalingrad feel to the fight on the street. In C&W its much more low key with most pundits expecting a comfortable win for Brake.
The only one that seems like a certain loss is Brent Central. I think Hornsey is a probable loss, Kingston a probable hold.0 -
Sporting have put up a number of interesting spread bets relating to George Osborne's Budget speech:
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.5077288/the-2015-budget
One which caught my eye was the number of mentions of the word "billion" where the spread is 28 to sell - 30 to buy. Since the speech is reckoned to last around 55 - 60 minutes, that would work out at around two "mentions" per minute ..... not too demanding I would have thought and I'd be a modest buyer at this level.
DYOR.
Btw, those unable to back my suggestion of George wearing a blue tie at odds of 2/1, might instead be tempted by Hills' odds of 50/1 against him wearing either a red or yellow tie. But then again, perhaps not!0 -
I make it a Tory majority of 2,000 in Sutton and Cheam and a LibDem majority of !,000 in C&W.Pulpstar said:
Sutton and Cheam and Carshalton and Wellington will be held even if the Lib Dems go sub 15 seats or so. Probably sub 10timmo said:The remaining rump of the LibDems are putting in a concerted effort though..
Here in Sutton where they have Brake and Burstow as MPs they have through the LD phonebank machine rung the whole constituency twice already.
Sutton and Cheam which is a target 40/40 seat is getting visits from cabinet ministers galore by the Tories and there is a real Stalingrad feel to the fight on the street. In C&W its much more low key with most pundits expecting a comfortable win for Brake.0 -
Todays Populus EICIPM0
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Todays ICM EICIPM0
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Someone has just rebooted bigjohn!0
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Todays LARGER 24 mins0
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I make Bermondsey a 4,000 majority for the LibDems.ThomasNashe said:
The really interesting one is Bermondsey. My instinct is that a continued strong personal vote will see Hughes over the line, but it's touch and go - Labour seem to be doing really well in the inner-London suburbs.Pulpstar said:
Sutton and Cheam and Carshalton and Wellington will be held even if the Lib Dems go sub 15 seats or so. Probably sub 10timmo said:The remaining rump of the LibDems are putting in a concerted effort though..
Here in Sutton where they have Brake and Burstow as MPs they have through the LD phonebank machine rung the whole constituency twice already.
Sutton and Cheam which is a target 40/40 seat is getting visits from cabinet ministers galore by the Tories and there is a real Stalingrad feel to the fight on the street. In C&W its much more low key with most pundits expecting a comfortable win for Brake.
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I think Kingston will be a LibDem HOLD. The most fascinating seat is Hornsey that should be a comfortable Lab GAIN but from what I'm hearing is going to be a dog fight to the finish - TCTC.Sean_F said:
Sutton, Carshalton, Twickenham, and Bermondsey will all be Lib Dem holds in London, IMHO.ThomasNashe said:
The really interesting one is Bermondsey. My instinct is that a continued strong personal vote will see Hughes over the line, but it's touch and go - Labour seem to be doing really well in the inner-London suburbs.Pulpstar said:
Sutton and Cheam and Carshalton and Wellington will be held even if the Lib Dems go sub 15 seats or so. Probably sub 10timmo said:The remaining rump of the LibDems are putting in a concerted effort though..
Here in Sutton where they have Brake and Burstow as MPs they have through the LD phonebank machine rung the whole constituency twice already.
Sutton and Cheam which is a target 40/40 seat is getting visits from cabinet ministers galore by the Tories and there is a real Stalingrad feel to the fight on the street. In C&W its much more low key with most pundits expecting a comfortable win for Brake.
The only one that seems like a certain loss is Brent Central. I think Hornsey is a probable loss, Kingston a probable hold.
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Yes, even if they win very few or none of their other targets Brent Central is a cast-iron gain for Labour.Sean_F said:
Sutton, Carshalton, Twickenham, and Bermondsey will all be Lib Dem holds in London, IMHO.ThomasNashe said:
The really interesting one is Bermondsey. My instinct is that a continued strong personal vote will see Hughes over the line, but it's touch and go - Labour seem to be doing really well in the inner-London suburbs.Pulpstar said:
Sutton and Cheam and Carshalton and Wellington will be held even if the Lib Dems go sub 15 seats or so. Probably sub 10timmo said:The remaining rump of the LibDems are putting in a concerted effort though..
Here in Sutton where they have Brake and Burstow as MPs they have through the LD phonebank machine rung the whole constituency twice already.
Sutton and Cheam which is a target 40/40 seat is getting visits from cabinet ministers galore by the Tories and there is a real Stalingrad feel to the fight on the street. In C&W its much more low key with most pundits expecting a comfortable win for Brake.
The only one that seems like a certain loss is Brent Central. I think Hornsey is a probable loss, Kingston a probable hold.0 -
The most fascinating seat is Hornsey that should be a comfortable Lab GAIN but from what I'm hearing is going to be a dog fight to the finish - TCTC.
Labour's actual vote to be a pale shadow of their poll score??
You don;t say....
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Just as well Dave got the Greens into the debates eh? Pity that might actually hurt them rather than help.Sean_F said:
It looks like a big switch from Green to Labour. Although I think that 4% and 9% are the irreducible minimum for the Greens and UKIP respectively, and the two big parties will have to take votes off each other to achieve a decisive lead with ICM.DavidL said:Very mixed ICM for the Tories. On the one hand to hold 36% is very impressive suggesting that their share of the vote might even go up in May. On the other Labour are right on their tails and going to gain a shedload of seats to offset the disaster in Scotland.
This is heading for a serious guddle, probably with Labour as the largest party but it is going to be too close to form a credible government with.
At the moment I still expect the tories to lose 50 seats to Labour and maybe 2 to UKIP. They will probably gain 12-15 from the Lib Dems on these scores which will put them in the mid 260s.
Labour will gain 50 from the tories and maybe a dozen from the Lib Dems but will lose 30+ to the SNP putting them in the low 280s.
The Lib dems look to me like they will lose over 30 seats now, at least 8 to the SNP, putting them down in the mid 20s. The idea that they are a good bet to gain Watford or anywhere else seems frankly absurd to me.
These figures for me are edging Labour's way as we get closer and swingback still looks more noticeable for its absence. I am pretty sure my estimate in the competition was more favourable to the Tories than this but we are where we are as that lying scumbag used to say.0 -
2012: 31peter_from_putney said:Sporting have put up a number of interesting spread bets relating to George Osborne's Budget speech:
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.5077288/the-2015-budget
One which caught my eye was the number of mentions of the word "billion" where the spread is 28 to sell - 30 to buy. Since the speech is reckoned to last around 55 - 60 minutes, that would work out at around two "mentions" per minute ..... not too demanding I would have thought and I'd be a modest buyer at this level.
2013: 23
2014: 25
The price looks about right, maybe a smidgen on the high side if anything.0 -
I'm not so sure about that. Baxter gives 298 Con to 315 Lab, but you'd need to knock about 30 off the Lab score for Scotland, whereas only 2 get knocked off the Con score.bigjohnowls said:Todays ICM EICIPM
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Do you see the LD's losing deposits in most of the other London seats, or getting a vote share higher than current polling suggests? Otherwise I am not sure how the maths works in terms of where they get votes from. In (for example) Lewisham Deptford where they came 2nd and got 23% of the vote in 2010 (same as nationwide) do you see them at 2%, 4% or the 8% that a national equivalent would suggest?Sean_F said:
Sutton, Carshalton, Twickenham, and Bermondsey will all be Lib Dem holds in London, IMHO.ThomasNashe said:
The really interesting one is Bermondsey. My instinct is that a continued strong personal vote will see Hughes over the line, but it's touch and go - Labour seem to be doing really well in the inner-London suburbs.Pulpstar said:
Sutton and Cheam and Carshalton and Wellington will be held even if the Lib Dems go sub 15 seats or so. Probably sub 10timmo said:The remaining rump of the LibDems are putting in a concerted effort though..
Here in Sutton where they have Brake and Burstow as MPs they have through the LD phonebank machine rung the whole constituency twice already.
Sutton and Cheam which is a target 40/40 seat is getting visits from cabinet ministers galore by the Tories and there is a real Stalingrad feel to the fight on the street. In C&W its much more low key with most pundits expecting a comfortable win for Brake.
The only one that seems like a certain loss is Brent Central. I think Hornsey is a probable loss, Kingston a probable hold.
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That was quick Richard!Richard_Nabavi said:
2012: 31peter_from_putney said:Sporting have put up a number of interesting spread bets relating to George Osborne's Budget speech:
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.5077288/the-2015-budget
One which caught my eye was the number of mentions of the word "billion" where the spread is 28 to sell - 30 to buy. Since the speech is reckoned to last around 55 - 60 minutes, that would work out at around two "mentions" per minute ..... not too demanding I would have thought and I'd be a modest buyer at this level.
2013: 23
2014: 25
The price looks about right, maybe a smidgen on the high side if anything.0 -
Indeed. Have done 4hrs paid work today in order to help out The Watcher and N4E!RobD said:Someone has just rebooted bigjohn!
Encouraging polls for Lab on the 35% strategy front.
In my view if (a big if ) LAB poll 35% EICIPM and all is well in the BJO household.
Coin toss GE2015 IMO0 -
In the local elections, we saw the Lib Dems more or less disappear from London, outside the three SW London boroughs, and Southwark. So, that's probably what will happen.Lennon said:
Do you see the LD's losing deposits in most of the other London seats, or getting a vote share higher than current polling suggests? Otherwise I am not sure how the maths works in terms of where they get votes from. In (for example) Lewisham Deptford where they came 2nd and got 23% of the vote in 2010 (same as nationwide) do you see them at 2%, 4% or the 8% that a national equivalent would suggest?Sean_F said:
Sutton, Carshalton, Twickenham, and Bermondsey will all be Lib Dem holds in London, IMHO.ThomasNashe said:
The really interesting one is Bermondsey. My instinct is that a continued strong personal vote will see Hughes over the line, but it's touch and go - Labour seem to be doing really well in the inner-London suburbs.Pulpstar said:
Sutton and Cheam and Carshalton and Wellington will be held even if the Lib Dems go sub 15 seats or so. Probably sub 10timmo said:The remaining rump of the LibDems are putting in a concerted effort though..
Here in Sutton where they have Brake and Burstow as MPs they have through the LD phonebank machine rung the whole constituency twice already.
Sutton and Cheam which is a target 40/40 seat is getting visits from cabinet ministers galore by the Tories and there is a real Stalingrad feel to the fight on the street. In C&W its much more low key with most pundits expecting a comfortable win for Brake.
The only one that seems like a certain loss is Brent Central. I think Hornsey is a probable loss, Kingston a probable hold.
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The reason why the LibDems are competitive in Watford is because not every seat will perform under UNS.DavidL said:
The Lib dems look to me like they will lose over 30 seats now, at least 8 to the SNP, putting them down in the mid 20s. The idea that they are a good bet to gain Watford or anywhere else seems frankly absurd to me.Sean_F said:
It looks like a big switch from Green to Labour. Although I think that 4% and 9% are the irreducible minimum for the Greens and UKIP respectively, and the two big parties will have to take votes off each other to achieve a decisive lead with ICM.DavidL said:Very mixed ICM for the Tories. On the one hand to hold 36% is very impressive suggesting that their share of the vote might even go up in May. On the other Labour are right on their tails and going to gain a shedload of seats to offset the disaster in Scotland.
This is heading for a serious guddle, probably with Labour as the largest party but it is going to be too close to form a credible government with.
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IIRC the budget for the NHS has increased under this government, unlike Labour's plan. There has been no firesale, no asserts are being sold. Money is being spent to eliminate the backlog of treatments.roserees64 said:£780 million given last week to private health companies to operate in the NHS, while sevices have endured 4 years of cuts.How many more fire sales will there be before the next election?
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I make it:Sean_F said:
Sutton, Carshalton, Twickenham, and Bermondsey will all be Lib Dem holds in London, IMHO.ThomasNashe said:
The really interesting one is Bermondsey. My instinct is that a continued strong personal vote will see Hughes over the line, but it's touch and go - Labour seem to be doing really well in the inner-London suburbs.Pulpstar said:
Sutton and Cheam and Carshalton and Wellington will be held even if the Lib Dems go sub 15 seats or so. Probably sub 10timmo said:The remaining rump of the LibDems are putting in a concerted effort though..
Here in Sutton where they have Brake and Burstow as MPs they have through the LD phonebank machine rung the whole constituency twice already.
Sutton and Cheam which is a target 40/40 seat is getting visits from cabinet ministers galore by the Tories and there is a real Stalingrad feel to the fight on the street. In C&W its much more low key with most pundits expecting a comfortable win for Brake.
The only one that seems like a certain loss is Brent Central. I think Hornsey is a probable loss, Kingston a probable hold.
Kingston 2,000 LD majority
Hornsey 2,000 LD majority
Brent 1,700 Lab majority
Twickenham 5,000 LD majority
Sutton 2,000 Con majority
Carshalton 1,000 LD majority0 -
I'm selling tax at 108.peter_from_putney said:Sporting have put up a number of interesting spread bets relating to George Osborne's Budget speech:
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.5077288/the-2015-budget
One which caught my eye was the number of mentions of the word "billion" where the spread is 28 to sell - 30 to buy. Since the speech is reckoned to last around 55 - 60 minutes, that would work out at around two "mentions" per minute ..... not too demanding I would have thought and I'd be a modest buyer at this level.
DYOR.
Btw, those unable to back my suggestion of George wearing a blue tie at odds of 2/1, might instead be tempted by Hills' odds of 50/1 against him wearing either a red or yellow tie. But then again, perhaps not!
2014 84 mentions
2013 69
2012 123
2011 95
2010 83
Some of those are "taxation", so not sure how SPIN settles that, but its a sell for small (10p) stakes for me.0 -
T
Twickenham?!!Barnesian said:
I make it:Sean_F said:
Sutton, Carshalton, Twickenham, and Bermondsey will all be Lib Dem holds in London, IMHO.ThomasNashe said:
The really interesting one is Bermondsey. My instinct is that a continued strong personal vote will see Hughes over the line, but it's touch and go - Labour seem to be doing really well in the inner-London suburbs.Pulpstar said:
Sutton and Cheam and Carshalton and Wellington will be held even if the Lib Dems go sub 15 seats or so. Probably sub 10timmo said:The remaining rump of the LibDems are putting in a concerted effort though..
Here in Sutton where they have Brake and Burstow as MPs they have through the LD phonebank machine rung the whole constituency twice already.
Sutton and Cheam which is a target 40/40 seat is getting visits from cabinet ministers galore by the Tories and there is a real Stalingrad feel to the fight on the street. In C&W its much more low key with most pundits expecting a comfortable win for Brake.
The only one that seems like a certain loss is Brent Central. I think Hornsey is a probable loss, Kingston a probable hold.
Kingston 2,000 LD majority
Hornsey 2,000 LD majority
Brent 1,700 Lab majority
Twickenham 5,000 LD majority
Sutton 2,000 Con majority
Carshalton 1,000 LD majority0 -
Ah, you just changed it.
And that looks rather optimistic from an LD point of view overall. I'd expect the Lab majority in Brent to be much greater than that, given the total wipeout of LDs on the council and the fact that Teather has stood-down, and been replaced by the bloke caught up in the donations scandal.0 -
O/T: an interesting article.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/03/liberal-democrats-reveal-the-great-fissure-in-liberalism/
Such a shame that the Lib Dem candidate will most likely not succeed in Hampstead & Kilburn. I'd rather have his voice in Parliament than that lightweight, Warsi, or Galloway.0 -
I'm told by those canvassing in Hornsey that many voters think that Lynne Featherstone IS the LAB candidate.JackW said:
I think Kingston will be a LibDem HOLD. The most fascinating seat is Hornsey that should be a comfortable Lab GAIN but from what I'm hearing is going to be a dog fight to the finish - TCTC.Sean_F said:
Sutton, Carshalton, Twickenham, and Bermondsey will all be Lib Dem holds in London, IMHO.ThomasNashe said:
The really interesting one is Bermondsey. My instinct is that a continued strong personal vote will see Hughes over the line, but it's touch and go - Labour seem to be doing really well in the inner-London suburbs.Pulpstar said:
Sutton and Cheam and Carshalton and Wellington will be held even if the Lib Dems go sub 15 seats or so. Probably sub 10timmo said:The remaining rump of the LibDems are putting in a concerted effort though..
Here in Sutton where they have Brake and Burstow as MPs they have through the LD phonebank machine rung the whole constituency twice already.
Sutton and Cheam which is a target 40/40 seat is getting visits from cabinet ministers galore by the Tories and there is a real Stalingrad feel to the fight on the street. In C&W its much more low key with most pundits expecting a comfortable win for Brake.
The only one that seems like a certain loss is Brent Central. I think Hornsey is a probable loss, Kingston a probable hold.
0 -
Oh I am convinced that with a well known and liked local candidate they will significantly out perform the UNS. But win?? It's preposterous.JackW said:
The reason why the LibDems are competitive in Watford is because not every seat will perform under UNS.DavidL said:
The Lib dems look to me like they will lose over 30 seats now, at least 8 to the SNP, putting them down in the mid 20s. The idea that they are a good bet to gain Watford or anywhere else seems frankly absurd to me.Sean_F said:
It looks like a big switch from Green to Labour. Although I think that 4% and 9% are the irreducible minimum for the Greens and UKIP respectively, and the two big parties will have to take votes off each other to achieve a decisive lead with ICM.DavidL said:Very mixed ICM for the Tories. On the one hand to hold 36% is very impressive suggesting that their share of the vote might even go up in May. On the other Labour are right on their tails and going to gain a shedload of seats to offset the disaster in Scotland.
This is heading for a serious guddle, probably with Labour as the largest party but it is going to be too close to form a credible government with.
If the Lib Dems were back up to 13% and climbing she would be well in the game. But they're not.0 -
They count the Better Care Fund monies stolen from the NHS as health spending even though it is been spent by local councils on potholes though.perdix said:
IIRC the budget for the NHS has increased under this government, unlike Labour's plan. There has been no firesale, no asserts are being sold. Money is being spent to eliminate the backlog of treatments.roserees64 said:£780 million given last week to private health companies to operate in the NHS, while sevices have endured 4 years of cuts.How many more fire sales will there be before the next election?
£3.9bn not ring fenced for health that was previously0 -
10 mins to Lord Ashcroft Randomly Generated Election Result (LARGER)0
-
The sample should have 3% of 2010 voters as being UKIP voters. There's a problem if new UKIP converts misremember and come to believe that they voted UKIP in 2010, but I don't know of an alternative approach that doesn't result in the pollster basically guessing - as Populus appear to have done with adjustments to their party ID weightings.isam said:
Do you think weighting to when UKIP got 3% is a wise move in assessing where they are now? Or things much the same as 2010?TGOHF said:
You didn't say biased - apologies. But a robust examination of the methodology coincided with another poor poll score for your party.isam said:
Not at all..TGOHF said:
Oooh handbag.isam said:
What a ridiculous thing to say! The reason it isn't nearer to 15 is because they weight to 2010 vote, which seems a bit stale to me.TGOHF said:
If that 9 had been a 15 we wouldn't be having this conversation. ICM did well last time.isam said:
I wouldn't say any pollster is biased, and as that is a banning offence on here I'd like you to retract that insinuation if you would?TGOHF said:isam said:
Weighting to 2010 vote is like weighting Harry Kane's goals to his 2013/14 ratioPulpstar said:Lib Dems on 8% with ICM is like being on 5 or 6% with other opinion pollsters.
Damn biased pollsters !MikeK said:It's all Crystal Ball gazing.
In fact my crystal ball - I actually have a genuine one at home - shows much clearer mud, than all the pollsters do.
But weighting UKIP and the Lib Dems to their 2010 result is nonsense in my opinion
But you have a meme to push, for your own sanity no doubt, press on
No retraction of accusing me of saying the pollster was biased?
Want to make a bet on UKIP under/over 9%?
The key thing with UKIP will be how many switchers they pick up from the other parties. For whatever reason these percentages are quite low in ICM polls: 9%, 8% and 5% for Con, Lab and Lib Dem in the February ICM, compared to 17%, 7% and 12% in the latest Sunday Times YouGov.
That discrepancy has nothing to do with whether the sample is weighted to past vote, and everything to do with how the sample is gathered.0 -
"Any incidence of this word or a variation of this word root will count, eg Taxation and taxpayer do count, taxi and taxidermy do not count."Pulpstar said:I'm selling tax at 108.
2014 84 mentions
2013 69
2012 123
2011 95
2010 83
Some of those are "taxation", so not sure how SPIN settles that, but its a sell for small (10p) stakes for me.
I agree it's a sell. 2012 was an exceptional case because it was all about reforms to the tax system. This time it's about those sunny uplands which are in reach as long as voters are not so stupid as to risk changing the crew.0 -
Yes - sorry You were quicker than me!ThomasNashe said:Ah, you just changed it.
0 -
Do you fancy a £20 evens bet on that - I'll even give you another 500 votes, so that if the LibDems win by >3500 votes you win, if they win by < 3500 votes (or lose the seat) then I win?Barnesian said:
I make Bermondsey a 4,000 majority for the LibDems.ThomasNashe said:
The really interesting one is Bermondsey. My instinct is that a continued strong personal vote will see Hughes over the line, but it's touch and go - Labour seem to be doing really well in the inner-London suburbs.Pulpstar said:
Sutton and Cheam and Carshalton and Wellington will be held even if the Lib Dems go sub 15 seats or so. Probably sub 10timmo said:The remaining rump of the LibDems are putting in a concerted effort though..
Here in Sutton where they have Brake and Burstow as MPs they have through the LD phonebank machine rung the whole constituency twice already.
Sutton and Cheam which is a target 40/40 seat is getting visits from cabinet ministers galore by the Tories and there is a real Stalingrad feel to the fight on the street. In C&W its much more low key with most pundits expecting a comfortable win for Brake.0 -
But, look how Dorothy Thornhill did in the Mayoral election, along with Lib Dem candidates, notwithstanding the overall result for the Lib Dems.DavidL said:
Oh I am convinced that with a well known and liked local candidate they will significantly out perform the UNS. But win?? It's preposterous.JackW said:
The reason why the LibDems are competitive in Watford is because not every seat will perform under UNS.DavidL said:
The Lib dems look to me like they will lose over 30 seats now, at least 8 to the SNP, putting them down in the mid 20s. The idea that they are a good bet to gain Watford or anywhere else seems frankly absurd to me.Sean_F said:
It looks like a big switch from Green to Labour. Although I think that 4% and 9% are the irreducible minimum for the Greens and UKIP respectively, and the two big parties will have to take votes off each other to achieve a decisive lead with ICM.DavidL said:Very mixed ICM for the Tories. On the one hand to hold 36% is very impressive suggesting that their share of the vote might even go up in May. On the other Labour are right on their tails and going to gain a shedload of seats to offset the disaster in Scotland.
This is heading for a serious guddle, probably with Labour as the largest party but it is going to be too close to form a credible government with.
If the Lib Dems were back up to 13% and climbing she would be well in the game. But they're not.0 -
Has anyone got to sunny uplands in a boat since Noah?Richard_Nabavi said:
"Any incidence of this word or a variation of this word root will count, eg Taxation and taxpayer do count, taxi and taxidermy do not count."Pulpstar said:I'm selling tax at 108.
2014 84 mentions
2013 69
2012 123
2011 95
2010 83
Some of those are "taxation", so not sure how SPIN settles that, but its a sell for small (10p) stakes for me.
I agree it's a sell. 2012 was an exceptional case because it was all about reforms to the tax system. This time it's about those sunny uplands which we are in reach as long as voters are not so stupid as to risk changing the crew.0 -
I'd be amazed if Labour don't pick this seat up. In Muswell Hill there's loads of activity from the Red's at the moment.taffys said:The most fascinating seat is Hornsey that should be a comfortable Lab GAIN but from what I'm hearing is going to be a dog fight to the finish - TCTC.
Labour's actual vote to be a pale shadow of their poll score??
You don;t say....0 -
2014 25Richard_Nabavi said:
2012: 31peter_from_putney said:Sporting have put up a number of interesting spread bets relating to George Osborne's Budget speech:
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.5077288/the-2015-budget
One which caught my eye was the number of mentions of the word "billion" where the spread is 28 to sell - 30 to buy. Since the speech is reckoned to last around 55 - 60 minutes, that would work out at around two "mentions" per minute ..... not too demanding I would have thought and I'd be a modest buyer at this level.
2013: 23
2014: 25
The price looks about right, maybe a smidgen on the high side if anything.
2013 23
2012 31
2011 16
2010 40
----------
27 Average0 -
Miss Cyclefree, cheers for that link. A very interesting article indeed.0
-
I hope that Barnesian does not back up his predictions for Hornsey and Bermondsey with money.!
Regarding Brent,you can treble his projected 1700 Labour majority0 -
Have you seen my tax analysis, definite sell. But make sure you aren't stuck for too much if he DOES mention it 200 times or w/e so one for small stakesRichard_Nabavi said:
2012: 31peter_from_putney said:Sporting have put up a number of interesting spread bets relating to George Osborne's Budget speech:
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.5077288/the-2015-budget
One which caught my eye was the number of mentions of the word "billion" where the spread is 28 to sell - 30 to buy. Since the speech is reckoned to last around 55 - 60 minutes, that would work out at around two "mentions" per minute ..... not too demanding I would have thought and I'd be a modest buyer at this level.
2013: 23
2014: 25
The price looks about right, maybe a smidgen on the high side if anything. 0 -
Any poll that has UKIP consistently 40% below the rest of the market needs looking at very closely - and then rejecting.DavidL said:
Just as well Dave got the Greens into the debates eh? Pity that might actually hurt them rather than help.Sean_F said:
It looks like a big switch from Green to Labour. Although I think that 4% and 9% are the irreducible minimum for the Greens and UKIP respectively, and the two big parties will have to take votes off each other to achieve a decisive lead with ICM.DavidL said:Very mixed ICM for the Tories. On the one hand to hold 36% is very impressive suggesting that their share of the vote might even go up in May. On the other Labour are right on their tails and going to gain a shedload of seats to offset the disaster in Scotland.
This is heading for a serious guddle, probably with Labour as the largest party but it is going to be too close to form a credible government with.
At the moment I still expect the tories to lose 50 seats to Labour and maybe 2 to UKIP. They will probably gain 12-15 from the Lib Dems on these scores which will put them in the mid 260s.
Labour will gain 50 from the tories and maybe a dozen from the Lib Dems but will lose 30+ to the SNP putting them in the low 280s.
The Lib dems look to me like they will lose over 30 seats now, at least 8 to the SNP, putting them down in the mid 20s. The idea that they are a good bet to gain Watford or anywhere else seems frankly absurd to me.
These figures for me are edging Labour's way as we get closer and swingback still looks more noticeable for its absence. I am pretty sure my estimate in the competition was more favourable to the Tories than this but we are where we are as that lying scumbag used to say.
0 -
Well, ICM did have the Conservatives 5% behind Labour in December, and 3% behind in January, so I'd say that swingback has occurred.DavidL said:
Just as well Dave got the Greens into the debates eh? Pity that might actually hurt them rather than help.Sean_F said:
It looks like a big switch from Green to Labour. Although I think that 4% and 9% are the irreducible minimum for the Greens and UKIP respectively, and the two big parties will have to take votes off each other to achieve a decisive lead with ICM.DavidL said:Very mixed ICM for the Tories. On the one hand to hold 36% is very impressive suggesting that their share of the vote might even go up in May. On the other Labour are right on their tails and going to gain a shedload of seats to offset the disaster in Scotland.
This is heading for a serious guddle, probably with Labour as the largest party but it is going to be too close to form a credible government with.
At the moment I still expect the tories to lose 50 seats to Labour and maybe 2 to UKIP. They will probably gain 12-15 from the Lib Dems on these scores which will put them in the mid 260s.
Labour will gain 50 from the tories and maybe a dozen from the Lib Dems but will lose 30+ to the SNP putting them in the low 280s.
The Lib dems look to me like they will lose over 30 seats now, at least 8 to the SNP, putting them down in the mid 20s. The idea that they are a good bet to gain Watford or anywhere else seems frankly absurd to me.
These figures for me are edging Labour's way as we get closer and swingback still looks more noticeable for its absence. I am pretty sure my estimate in the competition was more favourable to the Tories than this but we are where we are as that lying scumbag used to say.
0 -
How do Lib Dem MPs in Lab/Lib marginals respond to Labour's argument that every seat they take off the Lib Dems and Tories is a seat closer to ending the current coalition and having a change of government. There are no rumblings whatsoever that the Lib Dems and Labour could work together after May. It'll take a massive personal vote to overcome that in these seats IMO.0
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"Lynne Featherstone IS the LAB candidate."MikeSmithson said:
I'm told by those canvassing in Hornsey that many voters think that Lynne Featherstone IS the LAB candidate.JackW said:
I think Kingston will be a LibDem HOLD. The most fascinating seat is Hornsey that should be a comfortable Lab GAIN but from what I'm hearing is going to be a dog fight to the finish - TCTC.Sean_F said:
Sutton, Carshalton, Twickenham, and Bermondsey will all be Lib Dem holds in London, IMHO.ThomasNashe said:
The really interesting one is Bermondsey. My instinct is that a continued strong personal vote will see Hughes over the line, but it's touch and go - Labour seem to be doing really well in the inner-London suburbs.Pulpstar said:
Sutton and Cheam and Carshalton and Wellington will be held even if the Lib Dems go sub 15 seats or so. Probably sub 10timmo said:The remaining rump of the LibDems are putting in a concerted effort though..
Here in Sutton where they have Brake and Burstow as MPs they have through the LD phonebank machine rung the whole constituency twice already.
Sutton and Cheam which is a target 40/40 seat is getting visits from cabinet ministers galore by the Tories and there is a real Stalingrad feel to the fight on the street. In C&W its much more low key with most pundits expecting a comfortable win for Brake.
The only one that seems like a certain loss is Brent Central. I think Hornsey is a probable loss, Kingston a probable hold.
Islamic terrorism at Ally Pally !!
0 -
We shall see. This is not a local election, it is a national one and I think she has no chance in what the Americans call a wave election.Sean_F said:
But, look how Dorothy Thornhill did in the Mayoral election, along with Lib Dem candidates, notwithstanding the overall result for the Lib Dems.DavidL said:
Oh I am convinced that with a well known and liked local candidate they will significantly out perform the UNS. But win?? It's preposterous.JackW said:
The reason why the LibDems are competitive in Watford is because not every seat will perform under UNS.DavidL said:
The Lib dems look to me like they will lose over 30 seats now, at least 8 to the SNP, putting them down in the mid 20s. The idea that they are a good bet to gain Watford or anywhere else seems frankly absurd to me.Sean_F said:
It looks like a big switch from Green to Labour. Although I think that 4% and 9% are the irreducible minimum for the Greens and UKIP respectively, and the two big parties will have to take votes off each other to achieve a decisive lead with ICM.DavidL said:Very mixed ICM for the Tories. On the one hand to hold 36% is very impressive suggesting that their share of the vote might even go up in May. On the other Labour are right on their tails and going to gain a shedload of seats to offset the disaster in Scotland.
This is heading for a serious guddle, probably with Labour as the largest party but it is going to be too close to form a credible government with.
If the Lib Dems were back up to 13% and climbing she would be well in the game. But they're not.
I wish it wasn't so. I think the Lib Dems have contributed very positively to the governance of this country over the last 5 years providing stability, consistency and some sensible moderation. But I seem to be in a very, very small minority in believing that.0 -
Con holding on to a lead with ICM seems a big moment?0
-
Lord Ashcroft poll
Con 31 (-3) Lab 29 (-1) LD 8 (+3) UKIP 15 (nc) Greens 8 (nc) Others 9 (+2)
That's the third poll today so far without a Labour lead.0 -
I sold at £2 a mention. Nothing ventured, nothing gained!Pulpstar said:
Have you seen my tax analysis, definite sell. But make sure you aren't stuck for too much if he DOES mention it 200 times or w/e so one for small stakesRichard_Nabavi said:
2012: 31peter_from_putney said:Sporting have put up a number of interesting spread bets relating to George Osborne's Budget speech:
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.5077288/the-2015-budget
One which caught my eye was the number of mentions of the word "billion" where the spread is 28 to sell - 30 to buy. Since the speech is reckoned to last around 55 - 60 minutes, that would work out at around two "mentions" per minute ..... not too demanding I would have thought and I'd be a modest buyer at this level.
2013: 23
2014: 25
The price looks about right, maybe a smidgen on the high side if anything.0 -
The key in Hornsey will be the Tory vote. Given on-going uber-gentrification in those parts of the constituency with £ million plus houses (Highgate, Muswell Hill, Crouch End), it would not be a huge surprise to see that rise. If it does, Ms Featherstone may be in trouble as you'd expect the Labour vote to go up too.JackW said:
I think Kingston will be a LibDem HOLD. The most fascinating seat is Hornsey that should be a comfortable Lab GAIN but from what I'm hearing is going to be a dog fight to the finish - TCTC.Sean_F said:
Sutton, Carshalton, Twickenham, and Bermondsey will all be Lib Dem holds in London, IMHO.ThomasNashe said:
The really interesting one is Bermondsey. My instinct is that a continued strong personal vote will see Hughes over the line, but it's touch and go - Labour seem to be doing really well in the inner-London suburbs.Pulpstar said:
Sutton and Cheam and Carshalton and Wellington will be held even if the Lib Dems go sub 15 seats or so. Probably sub 10timmo said:The remaining rump of the LibDems are putting in a concerted effort though..
Here in Sutton where they have Brake and Burstow as MPs they have through the LD phonebank machine rung the whole constituency twice already.
Sutton and Cheam which is a target 40/40 seat is getting visits from cabinet ministers galore by the Tories and there is a real Stalingrad feel to the fight on the street. In C&W its much more low key with most pundits expecting a comfortable win for Brake.
The only one that seems like a certain loss is Brent Central. I think Hornsey is a probable loss, Kingston a probable hold.
0 -
2010 : Lab + Con = 65.1 %
2015 (Mar) ICM : Lab + Con = 71% (+6%)
2015 (Mar) Ash : Lab + Con = 60% (-5%)
Rise or fall of the small parties ?
0 -
Dorothy Thornhill has been spanking the opposition for years when the yellow peril were nationally on 23% and recently when they've hit the wall. In seats such as Watford national polling is next to irrelevant.DavidL said:
Oh I am convinced that with a well known and liked local candidate they will significantly out perform the UNS. But win?? It's preposterous.JackW said:
The reason why the LibDems are competitive in Watford is because not every seat will perform under UNS.DavidL said:
The Lib dems look to me like they will lose over 30 seats now, at least 8 to the SNP, putting them down in the mid 20s. The idea that they are a good bet to gain Watford or anywhere else seems frankly absurd to me.Sean_F said:
It looks like a big switch from Green to Labour. Although I think that 4% and 9% are the irreducible minimum for the Greens and UKIP respectively, and the two big parties will have to take votes off each other to achieve a decisive lead with ICM.DavidL said:Very mixed ICM for the Tories. On the one hand to hold 36% is very impressive suggesting that their share of the vote might even go up in May. On the other Labour are right on their tails and going to gain a shedload of seats to offset the disaster in Scotland.
This is heading for a serious guddle, probably with Labour as the largest party but it is going to be too close to form a credible government with.
If the Lib Dems were back up to 13% and climbing she would be well in the game. But they're not.
0 -
What on earth is the SNP score with Lord A? Must be over 5%?TheScreamingEagles said:Lord Ashcroft poll
Con 31 (-3) Lab 29 (-1) LD 8 (+3) UKIP 15 (nc) Greens 8 (nc) Others 9 (+2)
That's the third poll today so far without a Labour lead.
0 -
On Watford: narrow Tory hold is my expectation.0
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Shall we play guess the pollster, or does Ashcroft apply his own weighting?TheScreamingEagles said:Lord Ashcroft poll
Con 31 (-3) Lab 29 (-1) LD 8 (+3) UKIP 15 (nc) Greens 8 (nc) Others 9 (+2)
That's the third poll today so far without a Labour lead.
0 -
Don't forget that the sppech is expected to be around 30% longer than usual (55-60 mins vs 45 mins) and given its inevitable political nature, it's bound to focus a good deal on personal tax issues. Therefore 108 may prove to be close to the mark, but I agree it'sunlikely to exceed this figure.Richard_Nabavi said:
"Any incidence of this word or a variation of this word root will count, eg Taxation and taxpayer do count, taxi and taxidermy do not count."Pulpstar said:I'm selling tax at 108.
2014 84 mentions
2013 69
2012 123
2011 95
2010 83
Some of those are "taxation", so not sure how SPIN settles that, but its a sell for small (10p) stakes for me.
I agree it's a sell. 2012 was an exceptional case because it was all about reforms to the tax system. This time it's about those sunny uplands which are in reach as long as voters are not so stupid as to risk changing the crew.0 -
Others on 9% in Ashcroft and 8% in ICM.. how can this be???0
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But the Lib Dems are doing a very effective squeeze of the Conservative vote, aren´t they?AllyPally_Rob said:
I'd be amazed if Labour don't pick this seat up. In Muswell Hill there's loads of activity from the Red's at the moment.taffys said:The most fascinating seat is Hornsey that should be a comfortable Lab GAIN but from what I'm hearing is going to be a dog fight to the finish - TCTC. Labour's actual vote to be a pale shadow of their poll score?
Moreover it appears that the Conservatives are telling all their peope to vote Lib Dem. Good.
0 -
Who are the others in this?RobD said:
Shall we play guess the pollster, or does Ashcroft apply his own weighting?TheScreamingEagles said:Lord Ashcroft poll
Con 31 (-3) Lab 29 (-1) LD 8 (+3) UKIP 15 (nc) Greens 8 (nc) Others 9 (+2)
That's the third poll today so far without a Labour lead.0 -
No thanks PfP but let's remember this conversation on election night.peter_from_putney said:
Do you fancy a £20 evens bet on that - I'll even give you another 500 votes, so that if the LibDems win by >3500 votes you win, if they win by < 3500 votes (or lose the seat) then I win?Barnesian said:
I make Bermondsey a 4,000 majority for the LibDems.ThomasNashe said:
The really interesting one is Bermondsey. My instinct is that a continued strong personal vote will see Hughes over the line, but it's touch and go - Labour seem to be doing really well in the inner-London suburbs.Pulpstar said:
Sutton and Cheam and Carshalton and Wellington will be held even if the Lib Dems go sub 15 seats or so. Probably sub 10timmo said:The remaining rump of the LibDems are putting in a concerted effort though..
Here in Sutton where they have Brake and Burstow as MPs they have through the LD phonebank machine rung the whole constituency twice already.
Sutton and Cheam which is a target 40/40 seat is getting visits from cabinet ministers galore by the Tories and there is a real Stalingrad feel to the fight on the street. In C&W its much more low key with most pundits expecting a comfortable win for Brake.
I am relying on a rather complex switching matrix which I fine tune as the various polls come out and apply to each constituency. I have no local knowledge. In many cases I think that might be an advantage when analysing possible results as I don't rely on any anecdotes or feelings. But perhaps Bermondsey is an exception. We shall see.0 -
I'm scratching my head at Lab+Con = 60% in Ashcroft and 71% with ICM. Their methodology is pretty similar as far as I can make out.0
-
I doubt if gentrification would make any difference to the Tory vote here. They're trendy upper middle class rather than Tory upper middle class in this seat.SouthamObserver said:
The key in Hornsey will be the Tory vote. Given on-going uber-gentrification in those parts of the constituency with £ million plus houses (Highgate, Muswell Hill, Crouch End), it would not be a huge surprise to see that rise. If it does, Ms Featherstone may be in trouble as you'd expect the Labour vote to go up too.JackW said:
I think Kingston will be a LibDem HOLD. The most fascinating seat is Hornsey that should be a comfortable Lab GAIN but from what I'm hearing is going to be a dog fight to the finish - TCTC.Sean_F said:
Sutton, Carshalton, Twickenham, and Bermondsey will all be Lib Dem holds in London, IMHO.ThomasNashe said:
The really interesting one is Bermondsey. My instinct is that a continued strong personal vote will see Hughes over the line, but it's touch and go - Labour seem to be doing really well in the inner-London suburbs.Pulpstar said:
Sutton and Cheam and Carshalton and Wellington will be held even if the Lib Dems go sub 15 seats or so. Probably sub 10timmo said:The remaining rump of the LibDems are putting in a concerted effort though..
Here in Sutton where they have Brake and Burstow as MPs they have through the LD phonebank machine rung the whole constituency twice already.
Sutton and Cheam which is a target 40/40 seat is getting visits from cabinet ministers galore by the Tories and there is a real Stalingrad feel to the fight on the street. In C&W its much more low key with most pundits expecting a comfortable win for Brake.
The only one that seems like a certain loss is Brent Central. I think Hornsey is a probable loss, Kingston a probable hold.
0 -
Despite this, if each of the leaders found themselves with the unexpected luxury of a free Friday night they would not necessarily all spend it in the same way, according to our groups. Mr Farage would inevitably go to the pub, possibly after a spot of fishing, or, for the cynics, “to a French restaurant with his German wife to complain about immigration”.
Mr Clegg, a likeable “family man”, would take his wife and children ten-pin bowling, or stay in with them to watch Bake Off.
Mr Miliband, if he did not have a “posh dinner party” planned, would be playing with the train set some suspect he has in his loft, or spend the time “reading the opinion polls for something to grab onto” (though the disparagers didn’t have much conviction here: of course he would make the most of extra time with his family).
Mr Cameron, meanwhile, would “get a helicopter to Cornwall” with Sam and the kids, where he would take the country air to help him focus on the job. Should the family be away, however, he would go “to his club” to engage in “mildly inappropriate banter with Conservative MPs and eight bottles of Cabernet Sauvignon.”0 -
ICM Commentary from the Guardian:
ICM records the SNP on 5% overall. In Scotland, in a small sub-sample of the overall poll, their level of support is recorded at 56%....
Across the whole of Great Britain, 43% of voters say that they would be “worried about a separatist party deciding who runs the UK”, far more than the mere 14% who feel enthusiastic about “a different party shaking things up at Westminster”.
ICM tested voters’ financial mood using a tracker question about feelings about “the economy ... your financial position, and your ability to keep up with the cost of living”, and confirmed a generally positive mood, with 61% of respondents reporting that they felt confident, as against just 38% who were not confident.
This is the exact reverse of the figures for the depths of the credit crunch, in July 2008, when by 61% to 38% voters said that they were not confident..........
The Labour leader does a little better on the empathy question, with 58% dismissing the idea that he “understands people like me”, and only 34% agreeing, a net negative of -24.
Miliband does comparably badly on the “courage” question, with a 59% rejecting the idea he would speak inconvenient truths, and just 33% accepting it, a net negative of -26.
But then on the important question of whether voters perceive he would be “good in a crisis,” Miliband fares worst of all – with 60% of voters giving him the thumbs down, and only 18% endorsing him, a gap of 42 points. All these Miliband scores have slipped since November 2013, when he received a net negative of 16 on empathy, -31 on crisis management, and a net zero for courage.
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I have a theory on this, but I'm waiting for the Guardian to send me the data tables.OblitusSumMe said:I'm scratching my head at Lab+Con = 60% in Ashcroft and 71% with ICM. Their methodology is pretty similar as far as I can make out.
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Ashcroft has Scotland weighted to 11.5% of the total, thought it was 8% or so myself.0
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LOL!TheScreamingEagles said:Despite this, if each of the leaders found themselves with the unexpected luxury of a free Friday night they would not necessarily all spend it in the same way, according to our groups. Mr Farage would inevitably go to the pub, possibly after a spot of fishing, or, for the cynics, “to a French restaurant with his German wife to complain about immigration”.
Mr Clegg, a likeable “family man”, would take his wife and children ten-pin bowling, or stay in with them to watch Bake Off.
Mr Miliband, if he did not have a “posh dinner party” planned, would be playing with the train set some suspect he has in his loft, or spend the time “reading the opinion polls for something to grab onto” (though the disparagers didn’t have much conviction here: of course he would make the most of extra time with his family).
Mr Cameron, meanwhile, would “get a helicopter to Cornwall” with Sam and the kids, where he would take the country air to help him focus on the job. Should the family be away, however, he would go “to his club” to engage in “mildly inappropriate banter with Conservative MPs and eight bottles of Cabernet Sauvignon.”
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Ashcroft National Poll: Con 31%, Lab 29%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 15%, Green 8%
Monday, 16 March, 2015 in The Ashcroft National Poll
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/ashcroft-national-poll-con-31-lab-29-lib-dem-8-ukip-15-green-8/#more-110560 -
Fairy Nuff - anyone else want to take this £20 bet on the Bermondsey result, the same rules to apply? Settlement within 7 days of the GE by electronic bank transfer only. First bona fides acceptor by 5.00pm secures the deal.Barnesian said:
No thanks PfP but let's remember this conversation on election night.peter_from_putney said:
Do you fancy a £20 evens bet on that - I'll even give you another 500 votes, so that if the LibDems win by >3500 votes you win, if they win by < 3500 votes (or lose the seat) then I win?Barnesian said:
I make Bermondsey a 4,000 majority for the LibDems.ThomasNashe said:
The really interesting one is Bermondsey. My instinct is that a continued strong personal vote will see Hughes over the line, but it's touch and go - Labour seem to be doing really well in the inner-London suburbs.Pulpstar said:
Sutton and Cheam and Carshalton and Wellington will be held even if the Lib Dems go sub 15 seats or so. Probably sub 10timmo said:The remaining rump of the LibDems are putting in a concerted effort though..
Here in Sutton where they have Brake and Burstow as MPs they have through the LD phonebank machine rung the whole constituency twice already.
Sutton and Cheam which is a target 40/40 seat is getting visits from cabinet ministers galore by the Tories and there is a real Stalingrad feel to the fight on the street. In C&W its much more low key with most pundits expecting a comfortable win for Brake.
I am relying on a rather complex switching matrix which I fine tune as the various polls come out and apply to each constituency. I have no local knowledge. In many cases I think that might be an advantage when analysing possible results as I don't rely on any anecdotes or feelings. But perhaps Bermondsey is an exception. We shall see.0 -
The massive difference in these polls is totally bizarre. We are talking millions of votes difference. Its nuts0
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"ICM records the SNP on 5% overall...."Financier said:ICM Commentary from the Guardian:
ICM records the SNP on 5% overall. In Scotland, in a small sub-sample of the overall poll, their level of support is recorded at 56%....
Across the whole of Great Britain, 43% of voters say that they would be “worried about a separatist party deciding who runs the UK”, far more than the mere 14% who feel enthusiastic about “a different party shaking things up at Westminster”.
ICM tested voters’ financial mood using a tracker question about feelings about “the economy ... your financial position, and your ability to keep up with the cost of living”, and confirmed a generally positive mood, with 61% of respondents reporting that they felt confident, as against just 38% who were not confident.
This is the exact reverse of the figures for the depths of the credit crunch, in July 2008, when by 61% to 38% voters said that they were not confident..........
The Labour leader does a little better on the empathy question, with 58% dismissing the idea that he “understands people like me”, and only 34% agreeing, a net negative of -24.
Miliband does comparably badly on the “courage” question, with a 59% rejecting the idea he would speak inconvenient truths, and just 33% accepting it, a net negative of -26.
But then on the important question of whether voters perceive he would be “good in a crisis,” Miliband fares worst of all – with 60% of voters giving him the thumbs down, and only 18% endorsing him, a gap of 42 points. All these Miliband scores have slipped since November 2013, when he received a net negative of 16 on empathy, -31 on crisis management, and a net zero for courage.
How can others be on 8% then? This is baffling
...and Ashcroft has others on 9%. It can't be right
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Surprising lack of bounce in that poll. Almost stable.0
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Grant Shapps is badly losing his barnet0
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How many lofts does Ed have?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mr Miliband, if he did not have a “posh dinner party” planned, would be playing with the train set some suspect he has in his loft, or spend the time “reading the opinion polls for something to grab onto” (though the disparagers didn’t have much conviction here: of course he would make the most of extra time with his family).
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This election is going to come down to whether Labour can GOTV in the marginals.0
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"Another Party" are on 3%, along with Plaid on 1%, SNP on 5% and BNP on <1%.GIN1138 said:
What on earth is the SNP score with Lord A? Must be over 5%?TheScreamingEagles said:Lord Ashcroft poll
Con 31 (-3) Lab 29 (-1) LD 8 (+3) UKIP 15 (nc) Greens 8 (nc) Others 9 (+2)
That's the third poll today so far without a Labour lead.
That leaves: Respect, assorted other socialists, English Democrats and the odds and sods, gaining the support of 3% between them, which seems a bit optimistic.0 -
Afternoon all and Lord Ashcroft's 2% Tory lead this afternoon is the first time he has recorded 3 consecutive Tory leads.0
