politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Monday afternoon rolling polls thread
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Monday afternoon rolling polls thread
CORRECTION
CON jump 5 to draw level with LAB in today's Populus poll
Lab 34 (+2), Con 34 (+5), LD 8 (-), UKIP 15 (-3), Greens 5 (-1),
Comments
-
FPT:
1 extra Tory respondent in YouGov was all it took!Pulpstar said:
So there was in fact crossover last weekSunil_Prasannan said:
YouGov/Sunday Times spoilt a potential Lab/Con ELBOW lead of 0.00% yesterday! (ended up 0.01% Tory lead!)Pulpstar said:
Yes down to the last 0.00%.DavidL said:
Zero?Greenwich_Floater said:What are the chances of all 4 polls coming out today showing a tory lead
If I was a layer - I be offering 3/1
To be a player - I would want 5/1
Wasn't Populus a draw?
33.52% each.
?
Final weekly ELBOW tallies:
4,348 Con =33.17%
4,347 Lab =33.16%
1,944 UKIP = 14.83%
969 LD = 7.39%
744 Green = 5.68%
Total weighted sample from 11 polls =13,1080 -
I can't believe that LD score. They would not have dropped so much even with the Clegg drag and with those who hate them really hating them, if that many people still viewed them positively.0
-
People still quite like the Lib Dems then?0
-
But it's the broken sleazy Greens on the slide!Artist said:People still quite like the Lib Dems then?
0 -
Looking at those figures Labour should be romping home. Maybe it'll show up nearer polling day.0
-
Fpt
Funny how you can't see a mention of it given that he was on R4 this morning and how I can see a link to the video of that interview on the BBC Politics Live page, both in Live Reporting and Key Video sections, and that there's a link to the video on the main News page.FrancisUrquhart said:
Only today we have Trevor Philips also saying some uncomfortable things for your average Beeboid about race, and of course not a mention on the BBC website.0 -
Sporting Index flashing up in the header - Green Seats range 1.2 - 1.8
Eh? Surely that is either 1 or 2?0 -
Yes, but depending on whether you buy or sell you win 0.2 or lose 0.8MarqueeMark said:Sporting Index flashing up in the header - Green Seats range 1.2 - 1.8
Eh? Surely that is either 1 or 2?0 -
None so blind....JonnyJimmy said:Fpt
Funny how you can't see a mention of it given that he was on R4 this morning and how I can see a link to the video of that interview on the BBC Politics Live page, both in Live Reporting and Key Video sections, and that there's a link to the video on the main News page.FrancisUrquhart said:
Only today we have Trevor Philips also saying some uncomfortable things for your average Beeboid about race, and of course not a mention on the BBC website.0 -
It's "No bet" is what it is :PMarqueeMark said:Sporting Index flashing up in the header - Green Seats range 1.2 - 1.8
Eh? Surely that is either 1 or 2?0 -
Roger, you called if for Labour, that's excellent news, you are never knowingly right .Roger said:Looking at those figures Labour should be romping home. Maybe it'll show up nearer polling day.
How's those shares of yours and your second home????/... How many kitchens do you have.. Labour luvvies who try to pretend they are just regular ordinary man of the people guys seem to acquire them and lots of money?
How much do you think that ED "man of the people" 's total worth is now he is married, their net joint income and how many kitchens all told..
0 -
Uh no, that's absolutely correct.MarqueeMark said:Sporting Index flashing up in the header - Green Seats range 1.2 - 1.8
Eh? Surely that is either 1 or 2?
If you buy at £10 a seat and they get 1, you lost £8. If they get 2, you win £2.0 -
Wow, accurate to 2 decimal places ;-)Sunil_Prasannan said:FPT:
1 extra Tory respondent in YouGov was all it took!Pulpstar said:
So there was in fact crossover last weekSunil_Prasannan said:
YouGov/Sunday Times spoilt a potential Lab/Con ELBOW lead of 0.00% yesterday! (ended up 0.01% Tory lead!)Pulpstar said:
Yes down to the last 0.00%.DavidL said:
Zero?Greenwich_Floater said:What are the chances of all 4 polls coming out today showing a tory lead
If I was a layer - I be offering 3/1
To be a player - I would want 5/1
Wasn't Populus a draw?
33.52% each. ?
Final weekly ELBOW tallies:
4,348 Con =33.17%
4,347 Lab =33.16%
1,944 UKIP = 14.83%
969 LD = 7.39%
744 Green = 5.68%
Total weighted sample from 11 polls =13,1080 -
We can move on to the 'not prominent enough' argument them. That one is usually much more likely to be valid, as it is more open to interpretation.JonnyJimmy said:Fpt
Funny how you can't see a mention of it given that he was on R4 this morning and how I can see a link to the video of that interview on the BBC Politics Live page, both in Live Reporting and Key Video sections, and that there's a link to the video on the main News page.FrancisUrquhart said:
Only today we have Trevor Philips also saying some uncomfortable things for your average Beeboid about race, and of course not a mention on the BBC website.
0 -
The public seem to want Conservative leadership but with a Labour House of Commons, and it increasingly looks like they might get their wish.
We will get 5 years of what the French call 'Co Habitation' and the Americans term a lame duck presidency. It will be political paralysis with the Government blocked from making any serious policy changes and an orgy of pointless political game-playing to fill the vacuum.
Good. There is far too much law anyway.0 -
@chrisshipitv: Sturgeon reacting to Miliband: we never wanted coalition anyhow. This doesnt change SNP/Labour having working relationship post May @itvnews0
-
I don't think Mark Oaten had anything to do with this story.TCPoliticalBetting said:0 -
So... with Ed Milliband today making his (non) announcement how do we think Ed Balls feels after declining to answer question on coalition with SNP in excess of 10 times yesterday?
0 -
But 'like' does not mean will vote for - more that potentially they could. I think most lefties still harbour a basic anti-Con mentality, which will see many of them voting for whoever is best placed to defeat the Tory, so long as that's not UKIP.kle4 said:I can't believe that LD score. They would not have dropped so much even with the Clegg drag and with those who hate them really hating them, if that many people still viewed them positively.
0 -
So everyone is happy. Labour and the SNP will definitely work together to prevent the scourge of Torydom, while pretending they don't want to work together, their votes can be happy they are not letting the Tories in while not 'betraying' anyone by getting SNP Ministers/being tainted by Westminster respectively.Scott_P said:@chrisshipitv: Sturgeon reacting to Miliband: we never wanted coalition anyhow. This doesnt change SNP/Labour having working relationship post May @itvnews
The Tories meanwhile get a chance to tear themselves apart after Cameron is ousted while not being torn to pieces in the ratings as they get a boost from the few people who don't like the SNP and Labour working together to stop them, allowing the new leadership to bemoan how if only Cameron had listened to the right he would surely have won a majority.
0 -
Images of Ed Miliband trying to shake her free. "Get off me, woman....I don't fancy you, alright?"Scott_P said:@chrisshipitv: Sturgeon reacting to Miliband: we never wanted coalition anyhow. This doesnt change SNP/Labour having working relationship post May @itvnews
And under his breathe to her "The bloody wife can see us!"
0 -
Well, Ed has shut down that one then...
@SophyRidgeSky: Miliband says he won't get into how other parties may or not vote after election, when I ask if he'll rule out confidence & supply with SNP
or not.0 -
Oh and this page must be hidden for you too “Race should be discussed, Trevor Phillips says”JonnyJimmy said:Fpt
Funny how you can't see a mention of it given that he was on R4 this morning and how I can see a link to the video of that interview on the BBC Politics Live page, both in Live Reporting and Key Video sections, and that there's a link to the video on the main News page.FrancisUrquhart said:
Only today we have Trevor Philips also saying some uncomfortable things for your average Beeboid about race, and of course not a mention on the BBC website.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-319041180 -
The difference is in the systems, US and France have Presidents as well Congress/National Assembly, whereas we just have the HoC.Marcus01 said:The public seem to want Conservative leadership but with a Labour House of Commons, and it increasingly looks like they might get their wish.
We will get 5 years of what the French call 'Co Habitation' and the Americans term a lame duck presidency. It will be political paralysis with the Government blocked from making any serious policy changes and an orgy of pointless political game-playing to fill the vacuum.
Good. There is far too much law anyway.
We could have a parliament where there is less change for the sake of dogma or to undo the other guy's changes. Change only when approved by cross bench majorities. Doesn't sound that bad actually.0 -
It seems to be official...EdM has totally given up on Scotland and would go into partnership with the Party the whupped him0
-
Thanks, understand it now.rcs1000 said:
Uh no, that's absolutely correct.MarqueeMark said:Sporting Index flashing up in the header - Green Seats range 1.2 - 1.8
Eh? Surely that is either 1 or 2?
If you buy at £10 a seat and they get 1, you lost £8. If they get 2, you win £2.
It won't be troubling the barge pole....
0 -
I don't believe that either. They've just dropped too far in the voting intentions for me to buy that there is such a large potentiality of people who still like them and might consider voting for them if needed.ThomasNashe said:
But 'like' does not mean will vote for - more that potentially they could.kle4 said:I can't believe that LD score. They would not have dropped so much even with the Clegg drag and with those who hate them really hating them, if that many people still viewed them positively.
18 months ago I would have bought it, it seemed like that potentiality would have led to a boost by now. But now? Not buying it.
0 -
At least the women in his life won't have to share kitchens..MarqueeMark said:
Images of Ed Miliband trying to shake her free. "Get off me, woman....I don't fancy you, alright?"Scott_P said:@chrisshipitv: Sturgeon reacting to Miliband: we never wanted coalition anyhow. This doesnt change SNP/Labour having working relationship post May @itvnews
And under his breathe to her "The bloody wife can see us!"0 -
My bet of the week this time doesn't relate to the forthcoming GE at all as such, but rather to the most political speech of the entire five year parliament.
I refer of course to tomorrow's Budget statement and specifically to the colour of George Osborne's tie, which surely simply HAS to be BLUE.
There's a huge disparity in the odds between the four bookies covering this market -
Betfred go 4/7, Hills offer 8/15, Laddies are evens, whilst those nice people at Betfair Sportsbook are prepared to pay a whopping 2/1. Don't hang about as this price isn't going to last long.
DYOR (if you really must!)0 -
Just to prove I am not ungrateful for betting advice, thank you to the person who advised Harry Kane as a bet for first goalscorer vs Man Utd
I noted the source of the tip and bet accordingly both on FGS and anytime scorer
Harry Kane 7.69 1,434.07 Lay
Harry Kane 3.02 976.63 Lay0 -
Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :
1,111 minutes0 -
Thanks for the free £2.50peter_from_putney said:My bet of the week this time doesn't relate to the forthcoming GE at all as such, but rather to the most political speech of the entire five year parliament.
I refer of course to tomorrow's Budget statement and specifically to the colour of George Osborne's tie, which surely simply HAS to be BLUE.
There's a huge disparity in the odds between the four bookies covering this market -
Betfred go 4/7, Hills offer 8/15, Laddies are evens, whilst those nice people at Betfair Sportsbook are prepared to pay a whopping 2/1. Don't hang about as this price isn't going to last long.
DYOR (if you really must!)
A whopping £1.25 max stake on Blue 2-1.0 -
Fair enough. Tbh. I think being liked is not really terribly relevant to the way the actual votes pan out. People vote Tory not so much because they like or love the party, but because they think they're competent. In fact, it's possible to envisage people who don't like the tories personally ( what a nasty man that George Osborne is etc) voting for them because they think they'll make a better job of governing than their rivals - a bit like cod liver oil, perhaps?kle4 said:
I don't believe that either. They've just dropped too far in the voting intentions for me to buy that there is such a large potentiality of people who still like them and might consider voting for them if needed.ThomasNashe said:
But 'like' does not mean will vote for - more that potentially they could.kle4 said:I can't believe that LD score. They would not have dropped so much even with the Clegg drag and with those who hate them really hating them, if that many people still viewed them positively.
18 months ago I would have bought it, it seemed like that potentiality would have led to a boost by now. But now? Not buying it.0 -
@BBCNormanS: Scottish Labour leader @jimmurphymp says Scots will punish @thesnp if they brought down a Labour Govt0
-
So, Populus, OTHERS -3 (presuming no rounding errors), from 7% to 4%?0
-
People like the Lib Dems and even like Nick Clegg.
What Labour, UKIP, Green and SNP supporters don't like is the Lib Dems supporting the Conservatives. Even the Lib Dems and some Conservatives don't like the Lib Dems supporting the Conservatives.
Such people may change their minds when they see the chaos created with a minority government and no party prepared to vote to cut government spending.0 -
Betfair Blue tie into 5-4, max stake for me on this new price £0.000
-
Afternoon all and I see Malcolm is being his usual charming, inoffensive self.0
-
One can hope (personal tastes may differ on which is most competent of course). In my more cynical moments my fear is people tend to vote with their guts on who they think they should be voting for, regardless of whether their image of that party bears much relation to its actuality, hence how you can often ask people if they support an idea, then get a different reaction if they know who it is coming from.ThomasNashe said:
In fact, it's possible to envisage people who don't like the tories personally ( what a nasty man that George Osborne is etc) voting for them because they think they'll make a better job of governing than their rivalskle4 said:
I don't believe that either. They've just dropped too far in the voting intentions for me to buy that there is such a large potentiality of people who still like them and might consider voting for them if needed.ThomasNashe said:
But 'like' does not mean will vote for - more that potentially they could.kle4 said:I can't believe that LD score. They would not have dropped so much even with the Clegg drag and with those who hate them really hating them, if that many people still viewed them positively.
18 months ago I would have bought it, it seemed like that potentiality would have led to a boost by now. But now? Not buying it.
0 -
If I were a SNP voter, that would double my resolve to vote for them.Scott_P said:@BBCNormanS: Scottish Labour leader @jimmurphymp says Scots will punish @thesnp if they brought down a Labour Govt
Contemptible comment by Murphy.0 -
I see Populus Scottish subsample has SNP 47 Labour 19, Tory 17, Lib 10. The great Murphy revival continues for all to see.0
-
Even if the SNP have 50 MPs it is not enough tp bring down a Labour government. Only the Conservatives could do that.Scott_P said:@BBCNormanS: Scottish Labour leader @jimmurphymp says Scots will punish @thesnp if they brought down a Labour Govt
0 -
@peter_from_putney - Good spot!0
-
Labour 33.52%.bondegezou said:So, Populus, OTHERS -3 (presuming no rounding errors), from 7% to 4%?
Conservative 33.52%
UKIP 14.86%
Lib Dems 8.08%
SNP 4.76%
Greens 4.52%
Others 0.32%
PC 0.24%
BNP 0.24%
Which means that "Others" as you've defined it is 5.5% exactly.
0 -
@mattholehouse: Sturgeon: "This was a lot of hype to rule out something noone was proposing. Miliband's statement is absolutely fine from our point of view.
Just the endorsement Ed was looking for...0 -
Yes but can anyone get on for more than £1.25.Richard_Nabavi said:@peter_from_putney - Good spot!
I'm on the Betfair naughty list 0 -
It's an amazing comment that works for the SNP on so many levels.chestnut said:
If I were a SNP voter, that would double my resolve to vote for them.Scott_P said:@BBCNormanS: Scottish Labour leader @jimmurphymp says Scots will punish @thesnp if they brought down a Labour Govt
Contemptible comment by Murphy.0 -
not much arrogance and sense of entitlement on show there then :-)Scott_P said:@BBCNormanS: Scottish Labour leader @jimmurphymp says Scots will punish @thesnp if they brought down a Labour Govt
0 -
@GdnPolitics: Tories hold narrow lead ahead of general election in latest ICM/Guardian poll http://t.co/5TJW1J633g0
-
A lot of politics is about trust.kle4 said:
One can hope (personal tastes may differ on which is most competent of course). In my more cynical moments my fear is people tend to vote with their guts on who they think they should be voting for, regardless of whether their image of that party bears much relation to its actuality, hence how you can often ask people if they support an idea, then get a different reaction if they know who it is coming from.ThomasNashe said:
In fact, it's possible to envisage people who don't like the tories personally ( what a nasty man that George Osborne is etc) voting for them because they think they'll make a better job of governing than their rivalskle4 said:
I don't believe that either. They've just dropped too far in the voting intentions for me to buy that there is such a large potentiality of people who still like them and might consider voting for them if needed.ThomasNashe said:
But 'like' does not mean will vote for - more that potentially they could.kle4 said:I can't believe that LD score. They would not have dropped so much even with the Clegg drag and with those who hate them really hating them, if that many people still viewed them positively.
18 months ago I would have bought it, it seemed like that potentiality would have led to a boost by now. But now? Not buying it.
People are not going to be so sure about an idea that they won't be swayed if they find out it is proposed by someone they don't trust.
I actually think that is a reasonably rational way to react, given that you are asking people to make judgements in the absence of perfect information. It has its problems, of course, not the least of which is that people seem to be awful judges of who deserves their trust, as the success of various confidence tricksters, and the failures of many relationships, serves to demonstrate.0 -
The Tories are unchanged on 36%, with Labour on 35% – while both Liberal Democrat and Green support has fallen away from recent surveys.0
-
The Greens falling again. UKIP still on 9% is surprising.0
-
Lib Dems 8% is an utter how can I put this beyond horror show for them with ICM.0
-
Labour up 3. It's the crucial two-kitchen demographic making its presence felt.Scott_P said:The Tories are unchanged on 36%, with Labour on 35% – while both Liberal Democrat and Green support has fallen away from recent surveys.
0 -
How true that rings for Nick of west Sheffield.OblitusSumMe said:
A lot of politics is about trust.kle4 said:
One can hope (personal tastes may differ on which is most competent of course). In my more cynical moments my fear is people tend to vote with their guts on who they think they should be voting for, regardless of whether their image of that party bears much relation to its actuality, hence how you can often ask people if they support an idea, then get a different reaction if they know who it is coming from.ThomasNashe said:
In fact, it's possible to envisage people who don't like the tories personally ( what a nasty man that George Osborne is etc) voting for them because they think they'll make a better job of governing than their rivalskle4 said:
I don't believe that either. They've just dropped too far in the voting intentions for me to buy that there is such a large potentiality of people who still like them and might consider voting for them if needed.ThomasNashe said:
But 'like' does not mean will vote for - more that potentially they could.kle4 said:I can't believe that LD score. They would not have dropped so much even with the Clegg drag and with those who hate them really hating them, if that many people still viewed them positively.
18 months ago I would have bought it, it seemed like that potentiality would have led to a boost by now. But now? Not buying it.
People are not going to be so sure about an idea that they won't be swayed if they find out it is proposed by someone they don't trust.
I actually think that is a reasonably rational way to react, given that you are asking people to make judgements in the absence of perfect information. It has its problems, of course, not the least of which is that people seem to be awful judges of who deserves their trust, as the success of various confidence tricksters, and the failures of many relationships, serves to demonstrate.0 -
Lib Dems on 8% with ICM is like being on 5 or 6% with other opinion pollsters.0
-
Some of it'll be due to roundings. Wondering if the SNP will be close to Lib Dems in respondents though, could be ahead...isam said:
How can others be on 8%?Scott_P said:The Tories are unchanged on 36%, with Labour on 35% – while both Liberal Democrat and Green support has fallen away from recent surveys.
0 -
Tories retain a 1% lead over Labour with ICM as Libs and Greens go backwards0
-
What % of the vote is Scotland?Pulpstar said:
Some of it'll be due to roundings. Wondering if the SNP will be close to Lib Dems in respondents though, could be ahead...isam said:
How can others be on 8%?Scott_P said:The Tories are unchanged on 36%, with Labour on 35% – while both Liberal Democrat and Green support has fallen away from recent surveys.
0 -
Retain in the sense of fall from 4% to 1%?Easterross said:Tories retain a 1% lead over Labour with ICM as Libs and Greens go backwards
0 -
-
Quite, or even who others really are or what they stand for. It may be that x deserves someone's trust if their current politics is y, but in reality that is just how the brand is perceived and their politics is more like z. But a lot of people are not going to pick up on that, instead going with where they think a party is, or are like, that what they really are like.OblitusSumMe said:
It has its problems, of course, not the least of which is that people seem to be awful judges of who deserves their trustkle4 said:
One can hope (personal tastes may differ on which is most competent of course). In my more cynical moments my fear is people tend to vote with their guts on who they think they should be voting for, regardless of whether their image of that party bears much relation to its actuality, hence how you can often ask people if they support an idea, then get a different reaction if they know who it is coming from.ThomasNashe said:
In fact, it's possible to envisage people who don't like the tories personally ( what a nasty man that George Osborne is etc) voting for them because they think they'll make a better job of governing than their rivalskle4 said:
I don't believe that either. They've just dropped too far in the voting intentions for me to buy that there is such a large potentiality of people who still like them and might consider voting for them if needed.ThomasNashe said:
But 'like' does not mean will vote for - more that potentially they could.kle4 said:I can't believe that LD score. They would not have dropped so much even with the Clegg drag and with those who hate them really hating them, if that many people still viewed them positively.
18 months ago I would have bought it, it seemed like that potentiality would have led to a boost by now. But now? Not buying it.
Taking it back to Ed M and Labour ratings, that's where it gets silly for me, because people are saying they trust Labour and like Labour a lot, but they don't like Ed M, so what they think is that Ed M will have no or negligible impact on what Labour is or does, which seems unlikely even if he were as weak as people think.
0 -
Yet again Ed thinks long and hard - comes up with what he thinks is a cunning set of words - which end up in even more ridicule.Scott_P said:@mattholehouse: Sturgeon: "This was a lot of hype to rule out something noone was proposing. Miliband's statement is absolutely fine from our point of view.
Just the endorsement Ed was looking for...
Southam and Henry Mason were right about Ed from the off.0 -
Another poll showing a virtual tie - we can probably agree that both the previous ICM and the previous Populus were probably outliers.
I do think it's striking that 52% say they "like the Labour Party". I wouldn't have expected that most people these days would feel emotionally attached to any party.0 -
Ashcroft due at 4pm...0
-
It's all Crystal Ball gazing.Sunil_Prasannan said:FPT:
1 extra Tory respondent in YouGov was all it took!Pulpstar said:
So there was in fact crossover last weekSunil_Prasannan said:
YouGov/Sunday Times spoilt a potential Lab/Con ELBOW lead of 0.00% yesterday! (ended up 0.01% Tory lead!)Pulpstar said:
Yes down to the last 0.00%.DavidL said:
Zero?Greenwich_Floater said:What are the chances of all 4 polls coming out today showing a tory lead
If I was a layer - I be offering 3/1
To be a player - I would want 5/1
Wasn't Populus a draw?
33.52% each. ?
Final weekly ELBOW tallies:
4,348 Con =33.17%
4,347 Lab =33.16%
1,944 UKIP = 14.83%
969 LD = 7.39%
744 Green = 5.68%
Total weighted sample from 11 polls =13,108
In fact my crystal ball - I actually have a genuine one at home - shows much clearer mud, than all the pollsters do.
0 -
8isam said:
What % of the vote is Scotland?Pulpstar said:
Some of it'll be due to roundings. Wondering if the SNP will be close to Lib Dems in respondents though, could be ahead...isam said:
How can others be on 8%?Scott_P said:The Tories are unchanged on 36%, with Labour on 35% – while both Liberal Democrat and Green support has fallen away from recent surveys.
0 -
isam said:
Weighting to 2010 vote is like weighting Harry Kane's goals to his 2013/14 ratioPulpstar said:Lib Dems on 8% with ICM is like being on 5 or 6% with other opinion pollsters.
Damn biased pollsters !MikeK said:
It's all Crystal Ball gazing.Sunil_Prasannan said:FPT:
1 extra Tory respondent in YouGov was all it took!Pulpstar said:
So there was in fact crossover last weekSunil_Prasannan said:
YouGov/Sunday Times spoilt a potential Lab/Con ELBOW lead of 0.00% yesterday! (ended up 0.01% Tory lead!)Pulpstar said:
Yes down to the last 0.00%.DavidL said:
Zero?Greenwich_Floater said:What are the chances of all 4 polls coming out today showing a tory lead
If I was a layer - I be offering 3/1
To be a player - I would want 5/1
Wasn't Populus a draw?
33.52% each. ?
Final weekly ELBOW tallies:
4,348 Con =33.17%
4,347 Lab =33.16%
1,944 UKIP = 14.83%
969 LD = 7.39%
744 Green = 5.68%
Total weighted sample from 11 polls =13,108
In fact my crystal ball - I actually have a genuine one at home - shows much clearer mud, than all the pollsters do.0 -
It's awful. A 25 year low, just as with the February Ipsos Mori poll. Having serious doubts as to whether they will reach 10% in national vote share now.Pulpstar said:Lib Dems on 8% with ICM is like being on 5 or 6% with other opinion pollsters.
0 -
Conservatives 1% ahead of Labour with ICM is quite good for Labour whereas Cons level with labour in Populus is good news for Conservative.
#Expectationsmanagement0 -
That makes 9 leads apiece for the Conservatives and Labour, for March.
Among telephone polling companies, it's 8 Conservative leads to 5 Labour, since the start of the year.0 -
Nonsense! Nick only at the weekend said that the LibDems "are here to stay"! Not sure if he's "turning up the volume" thoughOblitusSumMe said:
It's awful. A 25 year low, just as with the February Ipsos Mori poll. Having serious doubts as to whether they will reach 10% in national vote share now.Pulpstar said:Lib Dems on 8% with ICM is like being on 5 or 6% with other opinion pollsters.
0 -
Not too late for the Lib Dems to ditch Clegg, though I doubt Farron wants to take them into the GE.
Bst let Clegg take the tar and feathers.0 -
Wow, what a positive percentage for Labour. The figure of 52% favourability is very impressive , Ed Miliband was equally impressive on the Free Speech programme, bodes well for debates.
Grant Schapps needs to resign quickly if he is not to damage his party, how could he have carried on sustaining his lie for so long.It appears very dishonourable indeed.0 -
I wouldn't say any pollster is biased, and as that is a banning offence on here I'd like you to retract that insinuation if you would?TGOHF said:isam said:
Weighting to 2010 vote is like weighting Harry Kane's goals to his 2013/14 ratioPulpstar said:Lib Dems on 8% with ICM is like being on 5 or 6% with other opinion pollsters.
Damn biased pollsters !MikeK said:
It's all Crystal Ball gazing.Sunil_Prasannan said:FPT:
1 extra Tory respondent in YouGov was all it took!Pulpstar said:
So there was in fact crossover last weekSunil_Prasannan said:
YouGov/Sunday Times spoilt a potential Lab/Con ELBOW lead of 0.00% yesterday! (ended up 0.01% Tory lead!)Pulpstar said:
Yes down to the last 0.00%.DavidL said:
Zero?Greenwich_Floater said:What are the chances of all 4 polls coming out today showing a tory lead
If I was a layer - I be offering 3/1
To be a player - I would want 5/1
Wasn't Populus a draw?
33.52% each. ?
Final weekly ELBOW tallies:
4,348 Con =33.17%
4,347 Lab =33.16%
1,944 UKIP = 14.83%
969 LD = 7.39%
744 Green = 5.68%
Total weighted sample from 11 polls =13,108
In fact my crystal ball - I actually have a genuine one at home - shows much clearer mud, than all the pollsters do.
But weighting UKIP and the Lib Dems to their 2010 result is nonsense in my opinion
0 -
With just seven and a half weeks to go until the GE, it would be handy if ICM as the Gold Standard were to produce weekly polls from hereon.0
-
Odds on SNP to get more votes than the Lib Dems ?0
-
Quite difficult to see "others" on 8 then... English Democrat surge?Pulpstar said:
8isam said:
What % of the vote is Scotland?Pulpstar said:
Some of it'll be due to roundings. Wondering if the SNP will be close to Lib Dems in respondents though, could be ahead...isam said:
How can others be on 8%?Scott_P said:The Tories are unchanged on 36%, with Labour on 35% – while both Liberal Democrat and Green support has fallen away from recent surveys.
0 -
0
-
Some of it will be due to roundings but it indicates an SNP score near to 50% in Scotland.isam said:
Quite difficult to see "others" on 8 then... English Democrat surge?Pulpstar said:
8isam said:
What % of the vote is Scotland?Pulpstar said:
Some of it'll be due to roundings. Wondering if the SNP will be close to Lib Dems in respondents though, could be ahead...isam said:
How can others be on 8%?Scott_P said:The Tories are unchanged on 36%, with Labour on 35% – while both Liberal Democrat and Green support has fallen away from recent surveys.
0 -
If that 9 had been a 15 we wouldn't be having this conversation. ICM did well last time.isam said:
I wouldn't say any pollster is biased, and as that is a banning offence on here I'd like you to retract that insinuation if you would?TGOHF said:isam said:
Weighting to 2010 vote is like weighting Harry Kane's goals to his 2013/14 ratioPulpstar said:Lib Dems on 8% with ICM is like being on 5 or 6% with other opinion pollsters.
Damn biased pollsters !MikeK said:
It's all Crystal Ball gazing.Sunil_Prasannan said:FPT:
1 extra Tory respondent in YouGov was all it took!Pulpstar said:
So there was in fact crossover last weekSunil_Prasannan said:
YouGov/Sunday Times spoilt a potential Lab/Con ELBOW lead of 0.00% yesterday! (ended up 0.01% Tory lead!)Pulpstar said:
Yes down to the last 0.00%.DavidL said:
Zero?Greenwich_Floater said:What are the chances of all 4 polls coming out today showing a tory lead
If I was a layer - I be offering 3/1
To be a player - I would want 5/1
Wasn't Populus a draw?
33.52% each. ?
Final weekly ELBOW tallies:
4,348 Con =33.17%
4,347 Lab =33.16%
1,944 UKIP = 14.83%
969 LD = 7.39%
744 Green = 5.68%
Total weighted sample from 11 polls =13,108
In fact my crystal ball - I actually have a genuine one at home - shows much clearer mud, than all the pollsters do.
But weighting UKIP and the Lib Dems to their 2010 result is nonsense in my opinion0 -
Also wish ICM would up their sample size, they have the largest MoE of all the pollsters.peter_from_putney said:With just seven and a half weeks to go until the GE, it would be handy if ICM as the Gold Standard were to produce weekly polls from hereon.
0 -
I meant it as a question - obviously it isn't odds on, which my text could have implied. It's 100-1 maybe.JackW said:
Absolutely not.Pulpstar said:Odds on SNP to get more votes than the Lib Dems ?
The SNP are at their absolute max in the polls whereas even with the LibDems at 8% the yellow peril will outpoll the SNP almost 2:10 -
What a ridiculous thing to say! The reason it isn't nearer to 15 is because they weight to 2010 vote, which seems a bit stale to me.TGOHF said:
If that 9 had been a 15 we wouldn't be having this conversation. ICM did well last time.isam said:
I wouldn't say any pollster is biased, and as that is a banning offence on here I'd like you to retract that insinuation if you would?TGOHF said:isam said:
Weighting to 2010 vote is like weighting Harry Kane's goals to his 2013/14 ratioPulpstar said:Lib Dems on 8% with ICM is like being on 5 or 6% with other opinion pollsters.
Damn biased pollsters !MikeK said:
It's all Crystal Ball gazing.Sunil_Prasannan said:FPT:
1 extra Tory respondent in YouGov was all it took!Pulpstar said:
So there was in fact crossover last weekSunil_Prasannan said:
YouGov/Sunday Times spoilt a potential Lab/Con ELBOW lead of 0.00% yesterday! (ended up 0.01% Tory lead!)Pulpstar said:
Yes down to the last 0.00%.DavidL said:
Zero?Greenwich_Floater said:What are the chances of all 4 polls coming out today showing a tory lead
If I was a layer - I be offering 3/1
To be a player - I would want 5/1
Wasn't Populus a draw?
33.52% each. ?
Final weekly ELBOW tallies:
4,348 Con =33.17%
4,347 Lab =33.16%
1,944 UKIP = 14.83%
969 LD = 7.39%
744 Green = 5.68%
Total weighted sample from 11 polls =13,108
In fact my crystal ball - I actually have a genuine one at home - shows much clearer mud, than all the pollsters do.
But weighting UKIP and the Lib Dems to their 2010 result is nonsense in my opinion
But you have a meme to push, for your own sanity no doubt, press on
0 -
The more interesting comparison is Greens vs. SNP. Could be about equal on votes, while the SNP get 50 times as many seats. Ah, the delights of FPTP...Pulpstar said:Odds on SNP to get more votes than the Lib Dems ?
0 -
Afternoon all
Still huge volatility - UKIP at 15% with Populus and just 9% with ICM. The duopoly has 71% which is notably higher than with other pollsters.
It's a fair poll for the Conservatives (their highest score with any pollster) and a decent poll for Labour but where can either side go from here if the LDs, UKIP and the rest are down to near core numbers ?
I think this is as high as either Conservative or Labour can go - the question then becomes whether both can hold this high share over the next few weeks.
It is a poor poll for the LDs - no question. Whether it's an outlier for them and UKIP given the high numbers for the duopoly remains to be seen.0 -
Very mixed ICM for the Tories. On the one hand to hold 36% is very impressive suggesting that their share of the vote might even go up in May. On the other Labour are right on their tails and going to gain a shedload of seats to offset the disaster in Scotland.
This is heading for a serious guddle, probably with Labour as the largest party but it is going to be too close to form a credible government with.0 -
Greens and SNP to run close, but I think the Greens will get more votes.bondegezou said:
The more interesting comparison is Greens vs. SNP. Could be about equal on votes, while the SNP get 50 times as many seats. Ah, the delights of FPTP...Pulpstar said:Odds on SNP to get more votes than the Lib Dems ?
0 -
Well they are standing in about 500 less constituencies, its not really the fault of FPTPbondegezou said:
The more interesting comparison is Greens vs. SNP. Could be about equal on votes, while the SNP get 50 times as many seats. Ah, the delights of FPTP...Pulpstar said:Odds on SNP to get more votes than the Lib Dems ?
0 -
£780 million given last week to private health companies to operate in the NHS, while sevices have endured 4 years of cuts.How many more fire sales will there be before the next election?0
-
Oooh handbag.isam said:
What a ridiculous thing to say! The reason it isn't nearer to 15 is because they weight to 2010 vote, which seems a bit stale to me.TGOHF said:
If that 9 had been a 15 we wouldn't be having this conversation. ICM did well last time.isam said:
I wouldn't say any pollster is biased, and as that is a banning offence on here I'd like you to retract that insinuation if you would?TGOHF said:isam said:
Weighting to 2010 vote is like weighting Harry Kane's goals to his 2013/14 ratioPulpstar said:Lib Dems on 8% with ICM is like being on 5 or 6% with other opinion pollsters.
Damn biased pollsters !MikeK said:
It's all Crystal Ball gazing.Sunil_Prasannan said:FPT:
1 extra Tory respondent in YouGov was all it took!Pulpstar said:
So there was in fact crossover last weekSunil_Prasannan said:
YouGov/Sunday Times spoilt a potential Lab/Con ELBOW lead of 0.00% yesterday! (ended up 0.01% Tory lead!)Pulpstar said:
Yes down to the last 0.00%.DavidL said:
Zero?Greenwich_Floater said:What are the chances of all 4 polls coming out today showing a tory lead
If I was a layer - I be offering 3/1
To be a player - I would want 5/1
Wasn't Populus a draw?
33.52% each. ?
Final weekly ELBOW tallies:
4,348 Con =33.17%
4,347 Lab =33.16%
1,944 UKIP = 14.83%
969 LD = 7.39%
744 Green = 5.68%
Total weighted sample from 11 polls =13,108
In fact my crystal ball - I actually have a genuine one at home - shows much clearer mud, than all the pollsters do.
But weighting UKIP and the Lib Dems to their 2010 result is nonsense in my opinion
But you have a meme to push, for your own sanity no doubt, press on0 -
The remaining rump of the LibDems are putting in a concerted effort though..
Here in Sutton where they have Brake and Burstow as MPs they have through the LD phonebank machine rung the whole constituency twice already.
Sutton and Cheam which is a target 40/40 seat is getting visits from cabinet ministers galore by the Tories and there is a real Stalingrad feel to the fight on the street. In C&W its much more low key with most pundits expecting a comfortable win for Brake.0 -
I'd be surprised if Labour aren't ahead before spiral of silence with this poll. THe "Others 8%" points to a large SNP score too, of which the flipside if that the 1.5% of votes Labour has lost in Scotland must therefore be coming back in England.DavidL said:Very mixed ICM for the Tories. On the one hand to hold 36% is very impressive suggesting that their share of the vote might even go up in May. On the other Labour are right on their tails and going to gain a shedload of seats to offset the disaster in Scotland.
This is heading for a serious guddle, probably with Labour as the largest party but it is going to be too close to form a credible government with.
It suggests that the Conservatives could have a bad night in England, but its all too close to call and all to play for.0 -
Sutton and Cheam and Carshalton and Wellington will be held even if the Lib Dems go sub 15 seats or so. Probably sub 10timmo said:The remaining rump of the LibDems are putting in a concerted effort though..
Here in Sutton where they have Brake and Burstow as MPs they have through the LD phonebank machine rung the whole constituency twice already.
Sutton and Cheam which is a target 40/40 seat is getting visits from cabinet ministers galore by the Tories and there is a real Stalingrad feel to the fight on the street. In C&W its much more low key with most pundits expecting a comfortable win for Brake.
0
