'A serious review of MPs' security is needed following the death of Ann Widdecombe, Andy Burnham has said.
The former Greater Manchester mayor, who is expected to become prime minister next Monday, said politics had "darkened" in the decade he had been away from Westminster.
He said he was "shocked to see how much security now has to be in place", but added that it may need to be increased further still.'
I don't mind being on the side of the establishment if the other side is dodgy foreign billionaires with bribes, money launderers and gold bullion dealers to the general public.
A lot of it relies on the work of Krugman but it contains some startling statistics.
Some of the measures it proposes though like higher corporation tax and ending the carried interest loophole were in the Harris platform in 2024.
Indeed Harris won voters earning over $100,000 a year and had more billionaires backing her than Trump. It was voters earning $30,000-$99,999 who elected Trump again mainly because of issues like immigration and anti woke and they are the voters the Democrats need to win back if they are going to push an agenda of reducing inequality
The big winners from the French Revolution were the middle classes, who were able acquire property on the cheap that was previously owned by the aristocracy and the Church. I think if someone can offer reliable ways for today's middle classes to get hold of oligarch wealth, that would be irresistible.
I should say I do not consider it sustainable and at some time it will need to be means tested
Means testing will just result in people not saving for their retirement.Why would you bother if only those who don't bother will get it? The simple answer is a) end the triple lock: pensions to increase only with inflation, and b) continue to gradually increaae the retirement age.
Loving the first sentence of that header - kudos @TSE.
It really boils my piss when a Cambridge educated lawyer like The Right Honourable Robert Jenrick tries to say he isn't establishment and is effectively working class.
Jenrick wasn't born establishment, his father was a gas fitter who then ran a fireplace manufacturing business and his mother was a secretary. He did go to private Wolverhampton Grammar School but it was not a major public school like Eton or Winchester or Harrow
Jenrick messes up my theory that major public school means Tory; minor public schools Labour.
FPT I still think it’s mad that the single biggest avoidable risk factor for COVID-19 deaths - obesity - is mentioned so little in the reports. It’s the reason the NHS came under so much pressure, and almost always why relatively young people died.
E.g. in the 240 page resilience report it’s mentioned once. I do my best to be balanced about the conduct of public servants, but it really is a disgraceful abrogation of duty. Entirely unserious.
I'm still amazed that the government didn't encourage weight loss and improved personal fitness during covid.
It’s always little,nudges.
So we’vehad the so called soda tax, advertising bans, BOGOF bans, bans on placing sweets near checkouts and other drivel that hasn’t worked which was advocated by well organised and well remunerated lobbying groups.
TFL even had to pull one of its own ads for places to visit in London as food featured in it was HFSS.
Yet obesity still increases
We now have an initiative coming where people will get vouchers and rewards if they walk a certain amount of time in the week.
The answer is probably to get people on the jabs rather than all of this ineffective bullshit.
Is obesity increasing? Do you have any evidence for that assertion?
During my week in Manchester, I saw a lot more vaping among young people than I see in London. Is vaping absent of health risk?
As for the "jabs" (which will likely be pills before long), we'll see. There are those who might argue appetite suppression and reduced size has other economic consequences.
Indeed, one of those consequences would be to make the manufacturers of Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro and the rest extremely wealthy to an extent the drug cartels can only dream.
Vaping health risks but less than smoking.
Big health issue with vaping IMO is that it appears overall to be a failure as a smoking cessation tool, which was how it was originally sold.
Smoking prevalence rates were falling until vaping was introduced, at which point it flat lined, and have possibly increased slightly. Vaping should have substituted for smoking as the healthier option and smoking died away completely.
I think some people have quit smoking via vaping, but if so that means more people are taking up vaping, and smoking, than they previously did.
If I'm right about this, the way vaping is marketed needs to changed/controlled.
Surely it depends on how unhealthy vaping is, and whether it can be effectively controlled by regulation. Nicotine itself needs no more regulation than caffeine, it's the delivery mechanism that is the problem
The marketing problem with vaping it seems to me is that it's sold as an entry into nicotine addiction however consumed, rather than as a means to move from a more dangerous form to a less dangerous one. This has big public health implications.
I took up vaping three years ago. I cut the amount I smoked from 30 a day to around 7. Exactly 50 days ago I had my last cigarette, completely without planning to. I wouldn't have done that without vapes. (Nor without camping in the Lakes in a heatwave and facing a three mile walk with no shade to buy tabs).
I should say I do not consider it sustainable and at some time it will need to be means tested
Means testing will just result in people not saving for their retirement.Why would you bother if only those who don't bother will get it? The simple answer is a) end the triple lock: pensions to increase only with inflation, and b) continue to gradually increaae the retirement age.
The future of the state pension should be a priority for all politicians as the cost is now unsustainable and unfair to those working
Increasing retirement age to 70 and beyond is one solution, as is looking at just who is receiving it and their actual income level in retirement
None of this is easy, but ultimately it will be forced on politicians to address the issue
Loving the first sentence of that header - kudos @TSE.
It really boils my piss when a Cambridge educated lawyer like The Right Honourable Robert Jenrick tries to say he isn't establishment and is effectively working class.
Jenrick wasn't born establishment, his father was a gas fitter who then ran a fireplace manufacturing business and his mother was a secretary. He did go to private Wolverhampton Grammar School but it was not a major public school like Eton or Winchester or Harrow
Jenrick messes up my theory that major public school means Tory; minor public schools Labour.
I think the current PLP is overwhelmingly state schooled.
Interesting that they are mostly going for the deck, rather than the bridge superstructure which we saw in the Azov hits
Indeed, there’s a variety of techniques in use.
The one thing they’re trying to avoid doing to damaging the hull, they don’t want to sink tankers full of oil because the mess will be a nightmare to clean up.
Yes. There were a couple of small Russian river barge tankers that sank in a storm in the Azov Sea a while ago, and they're still cleaning up the resulting mess. Imagine multiplying that by a hundred? Doesn't bear thinking about.
I should say I do not consider it sustainable and at some time it will need to be means tested
Means testing will just result in people not saving for their retirement.Why would you bother if only those who don't bother will get it? The simple answer is a) end the triple lock: pensions to increase only with inflation, and b) continue to gradually increaae the retirement age.
Agreed, though it does mean a couple of followup questions.
If we agree that the TL has largely done its job (which was to make the basic pension solid enough to not need a means-tested topup), what's the replacement? @eek's model sounds like a good and sellable one. Going back to the Thatcher inflation lock just means we're back here in 30 years' time.
If people are going to work longer (which does make sense), it means rethinking what that looks like. In some cases, that's about physical jobs that are undoable when people enter their pre-retirement years. In others, it's a question of moving people on so that younger people get a chance at the top jobs. In both cases, I'm sure there's a need for vocational mentoring/education (FE is crying out for people, and we want to expand FE... don't we?), but that function needs paying for...
Reports in The Times that the Treasury are looking to bring forward the increase in state pension age to 68 to start from 2037. The current published plan is to phase this increase in from April 2044.
Dr Suzy Morrissey is due to report imminently with her findings after last years call for evidence for the third state pension age review following the 2014 act. The govt then works on that.
So there’s a bit of pre emoting of that although the scope also included how future state pension age will be determined.
Final govt report/decision was supposedly not due til 2029
Given the govt is supposedly committed to a 10 year notification of any change in state pension age if that holds this change would need to go through next year. If it is an actual proposed change rather than an assumption.
The eagerness to bring this change in is in complete contrast to the refusal to do anything about the triple lock.
The two are locked together like Holmes and Moriaty.
If we creep the triple lock, eventually, the pensionable age will be raised to 27 minutes before the end of average life expectancy.
This is because there is no political stomach for raising taxes to pay for the Triple Lock.
Just means test the Triple Lock would be far more sensible, no party would get elected with a retirement age proposed of over 70 anyway let alone over 80
Firstly what are you means testing - secondly means testing is stupidly expensive to do, I would suggest differential tax rates designed to recover the money at an appropriate level instead
HYUFD is, rather worryingly, just representing the common understanding of the Triple Lock. People just think of it as a value - there is no appreciation of the ratchet effect from inflation/wage spirals, nor that the biggest negative impact of abolishing would be on young people, not old people.
The latter is completely false.
The biggest negative for young people is the ratchet stays in place making pensions utterly unaffordable leading to their being removed entirely which is what many young people expect - that they will get nothing.
Putting things on a sustainable footing by removing the ratchet will be good for young people.
Funny how many people do not comprehend the concept of sustainability. Especially those who would use the word in other contexts.
Personally I’m looking forward to my £100k state pension, I’m sure the generations coming after me will be more than happy to pay the tax required
I'm sure they will also be happy to pay for higher rate tax relief on private pension contributions, something usually overlooked by the highly-paid pundits calling for the end of the triple lock while maximising their own pension subsidies.
I should say I do not consider it sustainable and at some time it will need to be means tested
The triple lock should have gone years ago
It can only rise at the rate of CPI going forward and in addition we are either going to have to
1. Tax wealth & raise other taxes to pay for it
2. Means Test it
3. Keep rising the age at which it is due
4. Take other goodies away from Pensioners like free travel
1. Would be my solution along with an immediate ditching of the TL and would not be opposed to 4
The problem is taxing wealth is doing a lot of heavy lifting, and whilst it's the left's go to solution, in reality it just will not raise the amount expected
Ukraine's campaign against Russian shipping has moved from the Azov Sea to the Black Sea. They report 20 ships, mostly oil tankers, hit in the Black Sea overnight. Presumably this is because there aren't any undamaged ships left in the Azov Sea.
The Black Sea is a major route for Russian oil exports. If Ukraine can block it then that's a major loss in revenue for Russia, and they'd be forced to cut oil production, with long-term consequences due to the difficulty of restarting production.
This is what a strategic turning point in the war looks like, unlike the supposedly "strategic" piles of rubble that Russia have captured at great cost over the last few years.
I’ve been the massive optimist for a while on this war, but the last few weeks look like a significant change in momentum towards the defenders.
The Russians have effectively no navy to defend against these Fire Point drone strikes, and little left by way of air defences protecting nationally-important infrastructure. Meanwhile Crimea is being starved out, and the front lines in occupied Ukraine are suffering from massive supply shortages.
It’s starting to happen quickly.
Slowly - then all at once.
The Russians have lost close on 1,500 air defence assets. As well as very expensive, these are losses that cannot be replaced at anything like the rate of loss. The more get hit, then those remaining become more obvious priority targets.
Ukraine is seeing the benefit of a long term programme of degarding this aspect of Russian defence. Whilst Putin might have a bunch of them protecting his properties, the life-blood of the Russian ecoomy - hydrocarbons - are left to all intents and purposes undefended. A couple of refineries a week is now at two or three a night.
Any other rational player faced with what confronts Russia would be turning round and going home. How long can Putin defy the inevitable? The longer he does, the worse will be the effect on the future Russian prospects. They will soon be a nation foraging for roots and berries...
If your only income is the full state pension, it will be slightly below the Personal Allowance, meaning you will not pay any tax on it. However, if you have additional income that takes you above this threshold, the state pension will be taxed along with your overall income.
I should say I do not consider it sustainable and at some time it will need to be means tested
The triple lock should have gone years ago
It can only rise at the rate of CPI going forward and in addition we are either going to have to
1. Tax wealth & raise other taxes to pay for it
2. Means Test it
3. Keep rising the age at which it is due
4. Take other goodies away from Pensioners like free travel
1. Would be my solution along with an immediate ditching of the TL and would not be opposed to 4
The problem is taxing wealth is doing a lot of heavy lifting, and whilst it's the left's go to solution, in reality it just will not raise the amount expected
2 and 3 are more likely in some form
You are applying 2 and 3 because you are already receiving it.
Now I've always expected my pension to be paid from the age of 68 rather than the 67 it's current supposed to be - however it's 2 late for me to factor in the £250,000 extra I would need to save if I don't get the state pension.
Well I could but my day to day reduction in spending if others followed me would send us into a depression..
I should say I do not consider it sustainable and at some time it will need to be means tested
Means testing will just result in people not saving for their retirement.Why would you bother if only those who don't bother will get it? The simple answer is a) end the triple lock: pensions to increase only with inflation, and b) continue to gradually increaae the retirement age.
As with rather too many benefits, the problem is it's not taxable.
Make them taxable and then the problem reduces.
Of course, the tax system is run by idiots as well, and there are all sorts of problems with it as Angela Rayner can explain, but that's a reason to sort out the tax system not to keep benefits outside it.
I should say I do not consider it sustainable and at some time it will need to be means tested
Means testing will just result in people not saving for their retirement.Why would you bother if only those who don't bother will get it? The simple answer is a) end the triple lock: pensions to increase only with inflation, and b) continue to gradually increaae the retirement age.
As with rather too many benefits, the problem is it's not taxable.
Make them taxable and then the problem reduces.
Of course, the tax system is run by idiots as well, and there are all sorts of problems with it as Angela Rayner can explain, but that's a reason to sort out the tax system not to keep benefits outside it.
What's not taxable? Pensions are taxed income, but because it's the first £12,500 someone receives no tax is paid on it.
To be frank the biggest problem with any discussion about pensions is that most of the population haven't the first clue about what actually goes on..
I should say I do not consider it sustainable and at some time it will need to be means tested
Means testing will just result in people not saving for their retirement.Why would you bother if only those who don't bother will get it? The simple answer is a) end the triple lock: pensions to increase only with inflation, and b) continue to gradually increaae the retirement age.
As with rather too many benefits, the problem is it's not taxable.
Make them taxable and then the problem reduces.
Of course, the tax system is run by idiots as well, and there are all sorts of problems with it as Angela Rayner can explain, but that's a reason to sort out the tax system not to keep benefits outside it.
What's not taxable? Pensions are taxed income, but because it's the first £12,500 someone receives no tax is paid on it.
To be frank the biggest problem with any discussion about pensions is that most of the population haven't the first clue about what actually goes on..
It's not taxed at source, although to be fair that system gets messed up as well.
So we have a rather odd loophole where if you're not required to complete a self assessment you don't have to pay tax on it.
FPT I still think it’s mad that the single biggest avoidable risk factor for COVID-19 deaths - obesity - is mentioned so little in the reports. It’s the reason the NHS came under so much pressure, and almost always why relatively young people died.
E.g. in the 240 page resilience report it’s mentioned once. I do my best to be balanced about the conduct of public servants, but it really is a disgraceful abrogation of duty. Entirely unserious.
I'm still amazed that the government didn't encourage weight loss and improved personal fitness during covid.
It’s always little,nudges.
So we’vehad the so called soda tax, advertising bans, BOGOF bans, bans on placing sweets near checkouts and other drivel that hasn’t worked which was advocated by well organised and well remunerated lobbying groups.
TFL even had to pull one of its own ads for places to visit in London as food featured in it was HFSS.
Yet obesity still increases
We now have an initiative coming where people will get vouchers and rewards if they walk a certain amount of time in the week.
The answer is probably to get people on the jabs rather than all of this ineffective bullshit.
Is obesity increasing? Do you have any evidence for that assertion?
During my week in Manchester, I saw a lot more vaping among young people than I see in London. Is vaping absent of health risk?
As for the "jabs" (which will likely be pills before long), we'll see. There are those who might argue appetite suppression and reduced size has other economic consequences.
Indeed, one of those consequences would be to make the manufacturers of Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro and the rest extremely wealthy to an extent the drug cartels can only dream.
Novo Nordisk already has Wegvy brand oral semaglutide pills approved and available in the US, they’ll be everywhere before long.
Better that regulated ‘big’ pharma makes money and pays taxes, than the profits going to the other end of the drug business.
Those Wegovy pills are already available for sale in the UK.
At £150 - £200 per month, they are not an option* for many of the poorest but the pay back for the NHS and the DWP must surley be there if they were allowed freely on the NHS.
I'm sure that will come within the next 5 years.
(*Not an easy option at any rate.)
They absolutely should be available on the NHS, subject to reasonable objective criteria which can’t be easily gamed.
Target those initially with a BMI of over X, people with severe diabetic levels of blood sugar, people with weight-related other conditions, people signed off work sick for a year or more…
There’s a balance of available resources. Injectable GLP-1s are already available on the NHS but there is a choice to be made. Yes you can make the argument that “spending X today saves Y tomorrow” but you still need to pay for X today.
Ukraine's campaign against Russian shipping has moved from the Azov Sea to the Black Sea. They report 20 ships, mostly oil tankers, hit in the Black Sea overnight. Presumably this is because there aren't any undamaged ships left in the Azov Sea.
The Black Sea is a major route for Russian oil exports. If Ukraine can block it then that's a major loss in revenue for Russia, and they'd be forced to cut oil production, with long-term consequences due to the difficulty of restarting production.
This is what a strategic turning point in the war looks like, unlike the supposedly "strategic" piles of rubble that Russia have captured at great cost over the last few years.
I’ve been the massive optimist for a while on this war, but the last few weeks look like a significant change in momentum towards the defenders.
The Russians have effectively no navy to defend against these Fire Point drone strikes, and little left by way of air defences protecting nationally-important infrastructure. Meanwhile Crimea is being starved out, and the front lines in occupied Ukraine are suffering from massive supply shortages.
It’s starting to happen quickly.
Slowly - then all at once.
The Russians have lost close on 1,500 air defence assets. As well as very expensive, these are losses that cannot be replaced at anything like the rate of loss. The more get hit, then those remaining become more obvious priority targets.
Ukraine is seeing the benefit of a long term programme of degarding this aspect of Russian defence. Whilst Putin might have a bunch of them protecting his properties, the life-blood of the Russian ecoomy - hydrocarbons - are left to all intents and purposes undefended. A couple of refineries a week is now at two or three a night.
Any other rational player faced with what confronts Russia would be turning round and going home. How long can Putin defy the inevitable? The longer he does, the worse will be the effect on the future Russian prospects. They will soon be a nation foraging for roots and berries...
Hard to escape the conclusion that Crass Putin has reached the stage of bunker madness where he would be fine with that, as long as he remains in charge.
The Conservative Party is still seen as the only party of the establishment, though that is a bit less so since Brexit. No party seen as the party of the people, though the Greens and LDs seen as more so than an establishment party, I would dispute that for the LDs who are arguably now the most establishment party of all.
Reform seen as less establishment and more for the people still than Starmer Labour even if since the Tory defections even Farage's party is now seen as leaning to the establishment more than the people. We will see if a Burnham led Labour is seen as a peoples' party again
There's a significant overlap between being seen as "not of the establishment" (which for most people is probably good) and "favouring drastic economic changes" (which for most people is probably bad). If Burnham (or anyone else) is able to present a medium-term plan which gradually rewards ordinary people, perhaps challenging the establishment but not reckless, that will gain very widespread support. I think that "gradual" is key here - people are up for changes to institutions, but not for taking big risks from one year to the next.
Loving the first sentence of that header - kudos @TSE.
It really boils my piss when a Cambridge educated lawyer like The Right Honourable Robert Jenrick tries to say he isn't establishment and is effectively working class.
Jenrick wasn't born establishment, his father was a gas fitter who then ran a fireplace manufacturing business and his mother was a secretary. He did go to private Wolverhampton Grammar School but it was not a major public school like Eton or Winchester or Harrow
Oh Come on, whats the point of defending him? He's still part of the 7% who are privately educated, not to mention his Oxbridge degree. So it is just silly to defend his ridiculous pose of Working Class Hero when it's coming from a weakling ex-Tory whose achievements in office were performance cruelty and stupidity.
Eton and Oxford is traditional establishment, ex grammar school even plus Cambridge is not
This is where Kemi could score if she only stopped trying to be one of the establishment and a Reform Ultra
A Sky article describes here as Burger Flipper - Burger Flipper to PM is a great story.
She was also brought up on the mean streets of Lagos as part of the Nigerian diaspora (a big voting bloc).
She had a real job as a "script kiddie" and web designer. I won't use the term "code monkey" as it could be misinterpreted but it was a real modern job in comparison to those that came through the Conservative research department.
And she is a birthright citizen, one of the last after the UK changed its laws to remove that form of citizenship.
So she could portray herself as definitely not the establishment and yet fails to use her advantages against the old school Tories in Reform. That's why Kemi is a dud.
Kemi's not a dud - she polls consistently better than the Tories as a whole. And I think she does quite a nice job of portraying herself as a bit unusual but still sane. The missing bit is any reason to vote Tory, other than habit. Can we think of one important feature of life that would probably get better for ordinary people under the Tories?
No Stamp Duty
You may as well say no income tax unless you say what you'll replace it with. And why didn't they do this in previous decades of power?
They won't replace it with anything, they will cut the welfare bill unlike Labour
Reports in The Times that the Treasury are looking to bring forward the increase in state pension age to 68 to start from 2037. The current published plan is to phase this increase in from April 2044.
Dr Suzy Morrissey is due to report imminently with her findings after last years call for evidence for the third state pension age review following the 2014 act. The govt then works on that.
So there’s a bit of pre emoting of that although the scope also included how future state pension age will be determined.
Final govt report/decision was supposedly not due til 2029
Given the govt is supposedly committed to a 10 year notification of any change in state pension age if that holds this change would need to go through next year. If it is an actual proposed change rather than an assumption.
The eagerness to bring this change in is in complete contrast to the refusal to do anything about the triple lock.
The two are locked together like Holmes and Moriaty.
If we creep the triple lock, eventually, the pensionable age will be raised to 27 minutes before the end of average life expectancy.
This is because there is no political stomach for raising taxes to pay for the Triple Lock.
Just means test the Triple Lock would be far more sensible, no party would get elected with a retirement age proposed of over 70 anyway let alone over 80
Firstly what are you means testing - secondly means testing is stupidly expensive to do, I would suggest differential tax rates designed to recover the money at an appropriate level instead
Reeves has already effectively means tested WFA. Or link it only with inflation
I'm not sure the term "the establishment" really has any meaning in the modern world. It seems to serve as a proxy for "people I disagree with". See also "the blob". Where I think there is a meaningful dividing line is between people whose job it is to set and enforce the rules and the rest of us. Within the latter group there are people who think that the rules are preventing them from being as rich as they think they ought to be. A significant subset of this latter group are absolute scoundrels. While many of us may find the rules irritating from time to time, and the people who set and enforce them tiresome, it doesn't mean we want to surrender our country to a bunch of voracious spivs and crooks.
The Establishment can sensibly used to describe the group currently entrenched in power - especially in the permanent structures of government. This tends to roll over, over time. See the thesis that the U.K. avoided a physical revolution by having such rolling changes.
“…The Daily Mirror is read by people who think they run the country; The Guardian is read by people who think they *ought* to run the country; The Times is read by the people who actually *do* run the country; The Daily Mail is read by the wives of the people who run the country; The Financial Times is read by people who *own* the country; The Morning Star is read by people who think the country ought to be run by *another* country; and The Daily Telegraph is read by people who think it *is*.
What about the people who read the Sun?
There's a link here to David Frost making a complete horlicks of the gag;
X is used by people who think they run the country. LinkedIn is used by people who think they’re destined for the boardroom. Instagram is used by people who want everyone to think they’ve already made it. TikTok is used by people who think they will be running the next company before anyone notices. Reddit is used by people who know exactly how everyone else should be running the country Facebook is used by people trying to remember who everyone else is.
Reports in The Times that the Treasury are looking to bring forward the increase in state pension age to 68 to start from 2037. The current published plan is to phase this increase in from April 2044.
Dr Suzy Morrissey is due to report imminently with her findings after last years call for evidence for the third state pension age review following the 2014 act. The govt then works on that.
So there’s a bit of pre emoting of that although the scope also included how future state pension age will be determined.
Final govt report/decision was supposedly not due til 2029
Given the govt is supposedly committed to a 10 year notification of any change in state pension age if that holds this change would need to go through next year. If it is an actual proposed change rather than an assumption.
The eagerness to bring this change in is in complete contrast to the refusal to do anything about the triple lock.
The two are locked together like Holmes and Moriaty.
If we creep the triple lock, eventually, the pensionable age will be raised to 27 minutes before the end of average life expectancy.
This is because there is no political stomach for raising taxes to pay for the Triple Lock.
Back to how it was when the modern state pension was introduced post war then. Male average life expectency at birth in 1947 was 64.6 years
Linking to life expectancy is one of the terms of reference for the Morrissey review.
That could unfairly discriminate though, there's a 20-30 year time lag, so current pensioners with their triple-lock pensions and decent standard of living, therefore high life expectancy, could cause an increase in pension age for older workers with a poorer standard of living, because they're paying for triple-lock, and hence lower life expectancy. You'd be entrenching the pulling up of the ladder.
Which is what is happened with every increase in pension age, previously.
Interesting that they are mostly going for the deck, rather than the bridge superstructure which we saw in the Azov hits
Indeed, there’s a variety of techniques in use.
The one thing they’re trying to avoid doing to damaging the hull, they don’t want to sink tankers full of oil because the mess will be a nightmare to clean up.
Not 100% successful, apparently.
Footage of the bulk carrier Luni sinking in the Strait of Hormuz today after a hull fracture that led to it splitting in two near Bandar Abbas.
I should say I do not consider it sustainable and at some time it will need to be means tested
Means testing will just result in people not saving for their retirement.Why would you bother if only those who don't bother will get it? The simple answer is a) end the triple lock: pensions to increase only with inflation, and b) continue to gradually increaae the retirement age.
The future of the state pension should be a priority for all politicians as the cost is now unsustainable and unfair to those working
Increasing retirement age to 70 and beyond is one solution, as is looking at just who is receiving it and their actual income level in retirement
None of this is easy, but ultimately it will be forced on politicians to address the issue
Interesting that they are mostly going for the deck, rather than the bridge superstructure which we saw in the Azov hits
Indeed, there’s a variety of techniques in use.
The one thing they’re trying to avoid doing to damaging the hull, they don’t want to sink tankers full of oil because the mess will be a nightmare to clean up.
Not 100% successful, apparently.
Footage of the bulk carrier Luni sinking in the Strait of Hormuz today after a hull fracture that led to it splitting in two near Bandar Abbas.
This is where Kemi could score if she only stopped trying to be one of the establishment and a Reform Ultra
A Sky article describes here as Burger Flipper - Burger Flipper to PM is a great story.
She was also brought up on the mean streets of Lagos as part of the Nigerian diaspora (a big voting bloc).
She had a real job as a "script kiddie" and web designer. I won't use the term "code monkey" as it could be misinterpreted but it was a real modern job in comparison to those that came through the Conservative research department.
And she is a birthright citizen, one of the last after the UK changed its laws to remove that form of citizenship.
So she could portray herself as definitely not the establishment and yet fails to use her advantages against the old school Tories in Reform. That's why Kemi is a dud.
Kemi's not a dud - she polls consistently better than the Tories as a whole. And I think she does quite a nice job of portraying herself as a bit unusual but still sane. The missing bit is any reason to vote Tory, other than habit. Can we think of one important feature of life that would probably get better for ordinary people under the Tories?
No Stamp Duty
You may as well say no income tax unless you say what you'll replace it with. And why didn't they do this in previous decades of power?
The advantage of Stamp Duty is that there is actually liquid cash available to pay it at the time of the sale transaction.
Interesting that they are mostly going for the deck, rather than the bridge superstructure which we saw in the Azov hits
Indeed, there’s a variety of techniques in use.
The one thing they’re trying to avoid doing to damaging the hull, they don’t want to sink tankers full of oil because the mess will be a nightmare to clean up.
Not 100% successful, apparently.
Footage of the bulk carrier Luni sinking in the Strait of Hormuz today after a hull fracture that led to it splitting in two near Bandar Abbas.
I'm not sure the term "the establishment" really has any meaning in the modern world. It seems to serve as a proxy for "people I disagree with". See also "the blob". Where I think there is a meaningful dividing line is between people whose job it is to set and enforce the rules and the rest of us. Within the latter group there are people who think that the rules are preventing them from being as rich as they think they ought to be. A significant subset of this latter group are absolute scoundrels. While many of us may find the rules irritating from time to time, and the people who set and enforce them tiresome, it doesn't mean we want to surrender our country to a bunch of voracious spivs and crooks.
The Establishment can sensibly used to describe the group currently entrenched in power - especially in the permanent structures of government. This tends to roll over, over time. See the thesis that the U.K. avoided a physical revolution by having such rolling changes.
“…The Daily Mirror is read by people who think they run the country; The Guardian is read by people who think they *ought* to run the country; The Times is read by the people who actually *do* run the country; The Daily Mail is read by the wives of the people who run the country; The Financial Times is read by people who *own* the country; The Morning Star is read by people who think the country ought to be run by *another* country; and The Daily Telegraph is read by people who think it *is*.
What about the people who read the Sun?
There's a link here to David Frost making a complete horlicks of the gag;
X is used by people who think they run the country. LinkedIn is used by people who think they’re destined for the boardroom. Instagram is used by people who want everyone to think they’ve already made it. TikTok is used by people who think they will be running the next company before anyone notices. Reddit is used by people who know exactly how everyone else should be running the country Facebook is used by people trying to remember who everyone else is.
Bluesky is used by people who know who runs the country and how they're doing it wrong.
Reports in The Times that the Treasury are looking to bring forward the increase in state pension age to 68 to start from 2037. The current published plan is to phase this increase in from April 2044.
Dr Suzy Morrissey is due to report imminently with her findings after last years call for evidence for the third state pension age review following the 2014 act. The govt then works on that.
So there’s a bit of pre emoting of that although the scope also included how future state pension age will be determined.
Final govt report/decision was supposedly not due til 2029
Given the govt is supposedly committed to a 10 year notification of any change in state pension age if that holds this change would need to go through next year. If it is an actual proposed change rather than an assumption.
The eagerness to bring this change in is in complete contrast to the refusal to do anything about the triple lock.
The two are locked together like Holmes and Moriaty.
If we creep the triple lock, eventually, the pensionable age will be raised to 27 minutes before the end of average life expectancy.
This is because there is no political stomach for raising taxes to pay for the Triple Lock.
Just means test the Triple Lock would be far more sensible, no party would get elected with a retirement age proposed of over 70 anyway let alone over 80
Firstly what are you means testing - secondly means testing is stupidly expensive to do, I would suggest differential tax rates designed to recover the money at an appropriate level instead
Reeves has already effectively means tested WFA. Or link it only with inflation
Income taxation is means testing that is cheap to administer and less politically controversial.
Loving the first sentence of that header - kudos @TSE.
It really boils my piss when a Cambridge educated lawyer like The Right Honourable Robert Jenrick tries to say he isn't establishment and is effectively working class.
Jenrick wasn't born establishment, his father was a gas fitter who then ran a fireplace manufacturing business and his mother was a secretary. He did go to private Wolverhampton Grammar School but it was not a major public school like Eton or Winchester or Harrow
Jenrick messes up my theory that major public school means Tory; minor public schools Labour.
Not really true. Foot and Starmer are the only minor public school leaders Labour have had and even Starmer's was ex grammar. Most Labour leaders have been either grammar or comprehensive educated or major public school educated like Blair and Gaitskill and Attlee.
Tories tend to be more major public school as do LDs but the Tories have certainly had plenty of ex grammar leaders and Truss went to a comp and Kemi was not major public school either
I should say I do not consider it sustainable and at some time it will need to be means tested
Means testing will just result in people not saving for their retirement.Why would you bother if only those who don't bother will get it? The simple answer is a) end the triple lock: pensions to increase only with inflation, and b) continue to gradually increaae the retirement age.
Agreed, though it does mean a couple of followup questions.
If we agree that the TL has largely done its job (which was to make the basic pension solid enough to not need a means-tested topup), what's the replacement? @eek's model sounds like a good and sellable one. Going back to the Thatcher inflation lock just means we're back here in 30 years' time.
If people are going to work longer (which does make sense), it means rethinking what that looks like. In some cases, that's about physical jobs that are undoable when people enter their pre-retirement years. In others, it's a question of moving people on so that younger people get a chance at the top jobs. In both cases, I'm sure there's a need for vocational mentoring/education (FE is crying out for people, and we want to expand FE... don't we?), but that function needs paying for...
The thing is it’s not a replacement to the triple lock, it’s merely a change to it to reflect lags. It would still reflect inflation (CPI) and productivity gains (wages) the only thing it doesn’t do is double count inflation due to wage time lags.
So in my world the triple lock stays - it’s just tidied up a bit
The Conservative Party is still seen as the only party of the establishment, though that is a bit less so since Brexit. No party seen as the party of the people, though the Greens and LDs seen as more so than an establishment party, I would dispute that for the LDs who are arguably now the most establishment party of all.
Reform seen as less establishment and more for the people still than Starmer Labour even if since the Tory defections even Farage's party is now seen as leaning to the establishment more than the people. We will see if a Burnham led Labour is seen as a peoples' party again
There's a significant overlap between being seen as "not of the establishment" (which for most people is probably good) and "favouring drastic economic changes" (which for most people is probably bad). If Burnham (or anyone else) is able to present a medium-term plan which gradually rewards ordinary people, perhaps challenging the establishment but not reckless, that will gain very widespread support. I think that "gradual" is key here - people are up for changes to institutions, but not for taking big risks from one year to the next.
The ultimate anti establishment is probably being socialist economically but pro Brexit and socially conservative culturally
I should say I do not consider it sustainable and at some time it will need to be means tested
The triple lock should have gone years ago
It can only rise at the rate of CPI going forward and in addition we are either going to have to
1. Tax wealth & raise other taxes to pay for it
2. Means Test it
3. Keep rising the age at which it is due
4. Take other goodies away from Pensioners like free travel
1. Would be my solution along with an immediate ditching of the TL and would not be opposed to 4
The problem is taxing wealth is doing a lot of heavy lifting, and whilst it's the left's go to solution, in reality it just will not raise the amount expected
2 and 3 are more likely in some form
You are applying 2 and 3 because you are already receiving it.
Now I've always expected my pension to be paid from the age of 68 rather than the 67 it's current supposed to be - however it's 2 late for me to factor in the £250,000 extra I would need to save if I don't get the state pension.
Well I could but my day to day reduction in spending if others followed me would send us into a depression..
Speculation rife that rise to 68 from 2037 rather than planned 2044
As a beneficiary of the below it is ridiculous 47 years of Neoliberalism unopposed has delivered it.
Extraordinary fact: £1 in every £2 paid in income tax in Britain goes directly to the retired.
Our current pensions set-up and Triple Lock is not only unsustainable, but crippling the economy for those building it.
Whats the plan then, those currently in receipt live (relatively) high on the hog whilst the retirement drawbridge is pulled up for younger generations ?
Keeping the triple lock in place and at the same time accelerating the future pension age is unbelievably unfair.
'Diverging fortunes in leader approvals. Badenoch has positive net approval for the first time on +3, the first party leader to do so since summer 2024 & tying with Burnham. But Farage drops to his lowest approval since the election -24. Davey is -6, Polanski -19, Starmer -42.'
This is where Kemi could score if she only stopped trying to be one of the establishment and a Reform Ultra
A Sky article describes here as Burger Flipper - Burger Flipper to PM is a great story.
She was also brought up on the mean streets of Lagos as part of the Nigerian diaspora (a big voting bloc).
She had a real job as a "script kiddie" and web designer. I won't use the term "code monkey" as it could be misinterpreted but it was a real modern job in comparison to those that came through the Conservative research department.
And she is a birthright citizen, one of the last after the UK changed its laws to remove that form of citizenship.
So she could portray herself as definitely not the establishment and yet fails to use her advantages against the old school Tories in Reform. That's why Kemi is a dud.
Kemi's not a dud - she polls consistently better than the Tories as a whole. And I think she does quite a nice job of portraying herself as a bit unusual but still sane. The missing bit is any reason to vote Tory, other than habit. Can we think of one important feature of life that would probably get better for ordinary people under the Tories?
No Stamp Duty
You may as well say no income tax unless you say what you'll replace it with. And why didn't they do this in previous decades of power?
The advantage of Stamp Duty is that there is actually liquid cash available to pay it at the time of the sale transaction.
Dwarfed by the disadvantages that it is a tax on mobility while people who stay put avoid it entirely.
Move 5 times in your career for work and pay the tax every time while someone who does not never does.
Alternatively, downsize when kids leave the nest allowing a new family to use a family home and you get taxed while someone who does not never does.
'Diverging fortunes in leader approvals. Badenoch has positive net approval for the first time on +3, the first party leader to do so since summer 2024 & tying with Burnham. But Farage drops to his lowest approval since the election -24. Davey is -6, Polanski -19, Starmer -42.'
I should say I do not consider it sustainable and at some time it will need to be means tested
The triple lock should have gone years ago
It can only rise at the rate of CPI going forward and in addition we are either going to have to
1. Tax wealth & raise other taxes to pay for it
2. Means Test it
3. Keep rising the age at which it is due
4. Take other goodies away from Pensioners like free travel
1. Would be my solution along with an immediate ditching of the TL and would not be opposed to 4
The problem is taxing wealth is doing a lot of heavy lifting, and whilst it's the left's go to solution, in reality it just will not raise the amount expected
2 and 3 are more likely in some form
Or bite the bullet, wrap NI and IT together, so that everyone from pensioners through landlords, those living off investments and the self-employed, are all taxed at the same, simpler rate.
Loving the first sentence of that header - kudos @TSE.
It really boils my piss when a Cambridge educated lawyer like The Right Honourable Robert Jenrick tries to say he isn't establishment and is effectively working class.
Jenrick wasn't born establishment, his father was a gas fitter who then ran a fireplace manufacturing business and his mother was a secretary. He did go to private Wolverhampton Grammar School but it was not a major public school like Eton or Winchester or Harrow
Jenrick messes up my theory that major public school means Tory; minor public schools Labour.
Not really true. Foot and Starmer are the only minor public school leaders Labour have had and even Starmer's was ex grammar. Most Labour leaders have been either grammar or comprehensive educated or major public school educated like Blair and Gaitskill and Attlee.
Tories tend to be more major public school as do LDs but the Tories have certainly had plenty of ex grammar leaders and Truss went to a comp and Kemi was not major public school either
It comes from the 2000s when a lot of Labour ministers went to minor public schools, and were opposed by Cameron's chumocracy from Eton.
This is a fascinating little segment from this week's Private Eye podcast, by Helen Lewis, about Rupert Lowe's interview on the Joe Rogan podcast.
She touches on some of the stranger things that he said. "A short list of the people who have ruined Britain". I recognise a few of these from more esoteric libertarian circles 12-15 years ago.
As a beneficiary of the below it is ridiculous 47 years of Neoliberalism unopposed has delivered it.
Extraordinary fact: £1 in every £2 paid in income tax in Britain goes directly to the retired.
Our current pensions set-up and Triple Lock is not only unsustainable, but crippling the economy for those building it.
And if you add to your "directly" the "indirect" costs of the NHS - significantly spent on the retired - and the "indirect" costs of social care, which for adults (predominantly the retired) is the largest single item of expenditure for pretty much every local authority, funded one way of another almost entirely by various taxes, the grand total will be much higher.
As a beneficiary of the below it is ridiculous 47 years of Neoliberalism unopposed has delivered it.
Extraordinary fact: £1 in every £2 paid in income tax in Britain goes directly to the retired.
Our current pensions set-up and Triple Lock is not only unsustainable, but crippling the economy for those building it.
And if you add to your "directly" the "indirect" costs of the NHS - significantly spent on the retired - and the "indirect" costs of social care, which for adults (predominantly the retired) is the largest single item of expenditure for pretty much every local authority, funded one way of another almost entirely by various taxes, the grand total will be much higher.
Just checked the figures. Since the triple lock was introduced, Inflation has been applied 5 times, increase in earnings 8 times, the 2.5% minimum twice, and in 2022/23 it was suspended, and inflation was used instead of earnings because wages had been artificially inflated by the unwind of the COVID furlough scheme. So, to those of you who want to scrap the triple lock, which bit(s) do you want to scrap?
Loving the first sentence of that header - kudos @TSE.
It really boils my piss when a Cambridge educated lawyer like The Right Honourable Robert Jenrick tries to say he isn't establishment and is effectively working class.
Jenrick wasn't born establishment, his father was a gas fitter who then ran a fireplace manufacturing business and his mother was a secretary. He did go to private Wolverhampton Grammar School but it was not a major public school like Eton or Winchester or Harrow
Jenrick messes up my theory that major public school means Tory; minor public schools Labour.
Not really true. Foot and Starmer are the only minor public school leaders Labour have had and even Starmer's was ex grammar. Most Labour leaders have been either grammar or comprehensive educated or major public school educated like Blair and Gaitskill and Attlee.
Tories tend to be more major public school as do LDs but the Tories have certainly had plenty of ex grammar leaders and Truss went to a comp and Kemi was not major public school either
It comes from the 2000s when a lot of Labour ministers went to minor public schools, and were opposed by Cameron's chumocracy from Eton.
In the 2000s the Labour PM went to Fettes and pre Cameron taking over in 2005, Hague went to a comp, IDS a secondary modern and merchant navy training school and Howard a grammar school.
@GuidoFawkes Farage says Starmer and Devon & Cornwall chief constable told him that Ann Widdecombe's death was a botched burglary:
“They both told me it’s a burglary that’s gone wrong. I said no it is not, a burglar does not park his car on your drive and walk into the house. A burglar parks in the layby down the road and has a getaway driver."
Just checked the figures. Since the triple lock was introduced, Inflation has been applied 5 times, increase in earnings 8 times, the 2.5% minimum twice, and in 2022/23 it was suspended, and inflation was used instead of earnings because wages had been artificially inflated by the unwind of the COVID furlough scheme. So, to those of you who want to scrap the triple lock, which bit(s) do you want to scrap?
A good place to start would be with the ratchet effect which means pensioners benefit more if those measures keep switching each year rather than staying put.
Just checked the figures. Since the triple lock was introduced, Inflation has been applied 5 times, increase in earnings 8 times, the 2.5% minimum twice, and in 2022/23 it was suspended, and inflation was used instead of earnings because wages had been artificially inflated by the unwind of the COVID furlough scheme. So, to those of you who want to scrap the triple lock, which bit(s) do you want to scrap?
Either tie it to CPI. like almost all private pensions nowadays (either directly as DB or via an index linked annuity from a DC), or link it to earnings.
Just checked the figures. Since the triple lock was introduced, Inflation has been applied 5 times, increase in earnings 8 times, the 2.5% minimum twice, and in 2022/23 it was suspended, and inflation was used instead of earnings because wages had been artificially inflated by the unwind of the COVID furlough scheme. So, to those of you who want to scrap the triple lock, which bit(s) do you want to scrap?
A good place to start would be with the ratchet effect which means pensioners benefit more if those measures keep switching each year rather than staying put.
Yep and as I've pointed out you can fix that by using a rolling 3 year test rather than annual figures...
That change would be minimal, but would allow the triple lock to continue serving its purpose of avoiding any need to means test pensioners..
@GuidoFawkes Farage says Starmer and Devon & Cornwall chief constable told him that Ann Widdecombe's death was a botched burglary:
“They both told me it’s a burglary that’s gone wrong. I said no it is not, a burglar does not park his car on your drive and walk into the house. A burglar parks in the layby down the road and has a getaway driver."
My parents house was burgled when I was a child. They parked in the drive. I know, because we interrupted them.
Homan: The officers involved in these shootings are well trained, I wouldn’t even call this a bump in the road. This will be a short term review, so ICE feels comfortable…. https://x.com/Acyn/status/2077134923484602689
The bumps in the road presumably being protestors they have driven over.
FPT I still think it’s mad that the single biggest avoidable risk factor for COVID-19 deaths - obesity - is mentioned so little in the reports. It’s the reason the NHS came under so much pressure, and almost always why relatively young people died.
E.g. in the 240 page resilience report it’s mentioned once. I do my best to be balanced about the conduct of public servants, but it really is a disgraceful abrogation of duty. Entirely unserious.
I'm still amazed that the government didn't encourage weight loss and improved personal fitness during covid.
They did encourage fitness etc., including encouraging people go out to exercise during lockdown. However, it's a bit shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted. People can't (healthily) lose weight quickly. COVID-19 spread fast. You were never going to shift the national average BMI in a significant way in time to have much impact.
Relatively quickly you can with a consistent diet you can stick to.
1-2 lbs a week can be done healthily and that quickly adds up. Even at the low end that is basically a stone in three months.
When I switched my diet I lost the first 50 pounds in 9 months.
The problem is much diet advice is stuff people can't or won't realistically stick to, like bullshit about 5 fruit and veg a day, and does not address why many people get cravings for food even after they have consumed enough calories.
Talking about shit. Seems the Cyclospora (explosive diarrhea) outbreak is due to the contamination of salads and fresh fruits. Stick to the high fat / high sugar processed stuff to be safe.
Time for this
My mum really hates that advert!
Once I sang along to it AFTER hiding the remote. 😇
Just checked the figures. Since the triple lock was introduced, Inflation has been applied 5 times, increase in earnings 8 times, the 2.5% minimum twice, and in 2022/23 it was suspended, and inflation was used instead of earnings because wages had been artificially inflated by the unwind of the COVID furlough scheme. So, to those of you who want to scrap the triple lock, which bit(s) do you want to scrap?
Just checked the figures. Since the triple lock was introduced, Inflation has been applied 5 times, increase in earnings 8 times, the 2.5% minimum twice, and in 2022/23 it was suspended, and inflation was used instead of earnings because wages had been artificially inflated by the unwind of the COVID furlough scheme. So, to those of you who want to scrap the triple lock, which bit(s) do you want to scrap?
@GuidoFawkes Farage says Starmer and Devon & Cornwall chief constable told him that Ann Widdecombe's death was a botched burglary:
“They both told me it’s a burglary that’s gone wrong. I said no it is not, a burglar does not park his car on your drive and walk into the house. A burglar parks in the layby down the road and has a getaway driver."
@GuidoFawkes Farage says Starmer and Devon & Cornwall chief constable told him that Ann Widdecombe's death was a botched burglary:
“They both told me it’s a burglary that’s gone wrong. I said no it is not, a burglar does not park his car on your drive and walk into the house. A burglar parks in the layby down the road and has a getaway driver."
Initially that is probably what Devon and Cornwall police concluded on early evidence. But even if one considers a conspiracy, Farage's position has been bizarre.
Farage is milking the dreadful murder of Ann Widdecome without concern for the victim or her family. His choreographed presser on the weekend was quite frankly disgusting.
@GuidoFawkes Farage says Starmer and Devon & Cornwall chief constable told him that Ann Widdecombe's death was a botched burglary:
“They both told me it’s a burglary that’s gone wrong. I said no it is not, a burglar does not park his car on your drive and walk into the house. A burglar parks in the layby down the road and has a getaway driver."
A burglary gone wrong was probably the likeliest scenario, right up to the point they realised the suspect had driven from Rotherham and back
This is where Kemi could score if she only stopped trying to be one of the establishment and a Reform Ultra
A Sky article describes here as Burger Flipper - Burger Flipper to PM is a great story.
She was also brought up on the mean streets of Lagos as part of the Nigerian diaspora (a big voting bloc).
She had a real job as a "script kiddie" and web designer. I won't use the term "code monkey" as it could be misinterpreted but it was a real modern job in comparison to those that came through the Conservative research department.
And she is a birthright citizen, one of the last after the UK changed its laws to remove that form of citizenship.
So she could portray herself as definitely not the establishment and yet fails to use her advantages against the old school Tories in Reform. That's why Kemi is a dud.
Kemi's not a dud - she polls consistently better than the Tories as a whole. And I think she does quite a nice job of portraying herself as a bit unusual but still sane. The missing bit is any reason to vote Tory, other than habit. Can we think of one important feature of life that would probably get better for ordinary people under the Tories?
No Stamp Duty
You may as well say no income tax unless you say what you'll replace it with. And why didn't they do this in previous decades of power?
They won't replace it with anything, they will cut the welfare bill unlike Labour
Same question - Why should anyone believe that, when you have said that for decades now, and haven't been able to do so despite long periods of power and major re-organisations of welfare?
It's nonsense, you may as well promise some bigger nonsense than this small nonsense.
Just checked the figures. Since the triple lock was introduced, Inflation has been applied 5 times, increase in earnings 8 times, the 2.5% minimum twice, and in 2022/23 it was suspended, and inflation was used instead of earnings because wages had been artificially inflated by the unwind of the COVID furlough scheme. So, to those of you who want to scrap the triple lock, which bit(s) do you want to scrap?
I think I would make it a simple earnings link alone. Yes, if inflation is higher than earnings growth then that means pensioners' incomes are going to fall a bit behind what they need to spend, but that will also be true for working people, so it doesn't seem unfair to me.
I think the triple lock was a useful mechanism for pulling the pension value up as it had fallen too low compared to incomes. But at some point we ought to decide what we think is a reasonable level for pensions, and "X % of average income" for some X seems OK to me. (Exact value of X up for debate...)
Just checked the figures. Since the triple lock was introduced, Inflation has been applied 5 times, increase in earnings 8 times, the 2.5% minimum twice, and in 2022/23 it was suspended, and inflation was used instead of earnings because wages had been artificially inflated by the unwind of the COVID furlough scheme. So, to those of you who want to scrap the triple lock, which bit(s) do you want to scrap?
A very good question.
Effective from April
Increase
Driver
Full weekly pension
2011
4.6%
Inflation
£102.15 (Basic)
2012
5.2%
CPI
£107.45 (Basic)
2013
2.5%
2.5% minimum
£110.15 (Basic)
2014
2.7%
CPI
£113.10 (Basic)
2015
2.5%
2.5% minimum
£115.95 (Basic)
2016
2.9%
Earnings
£119.30 (Basic) / £155.65 (New)
2017
2.5%
2.5% minimum
£122.30 (Basic) / £159.55 (New)
2018
3.0%
CPI
£125.95 (Basic) / £164.35 (New)
2019
2.6%
Earnings
£129.20 (Basic) / £168.60 (New)
2020
3.9%
Earnings
£134.25 (Basic) / £175.20 (New)
2021
2.5%
2.5% minimum
£137.60 (Basic) / £179.60 (New)
2022
3.1%
CPI (earnings element suspended)
£141.85 (Basic) / £185.15 (New)
2023
10.1%
CPI
£156.20 (Basic) / £203.85 (New)
2024
8.5%
Earnings
£169.50 (Basic) / £221.20 (New)
2025
4.1%
Earnings
£176.45 (Basic) / £230.25 (New)
2026
4.8%
Earnings
£184.90 (Basic) / £241.30 (New)
Can you do that again showing CPI and Earnings alongside each other each year ? That would better illustrate the excess effect of the ratchet.
U.S. Ambassador Peter Lamelas and officials from the U.S. Air Force took part in the arrival ceremony led by President Javier Milei, Defense Minister Luis Petri, and other Argentine authorities.
The United States supported Argentina throughout the acquisition process, approving the transfer of the U.S.-origin aircraft from Denmark and provided $40 million in Foreign Military Financing to help cover the down payment on the $560 million Foreign Military Sales package, through which the United States will supply training, maintenance, and long-term support. Argentina is providing the remaining funds.
Today’s delivery is the first of four batches. Six additional aircraft will arrive each December through 2028, bringing the total to 24 F-16s. The jets will operate initially in Río Cuarto before transitioning to their permanent base in Tandil.
This news caused me to check on the Japanese translation of "Count Binface" and it turns out there are two competing names: ・ゴミ箱伯爵: Gomibako Hakushaku ("Count Trash Can") ・ビンフェイス伯爵: Binfeisu Hakushaku ("Count Binface") https://x.com/mrjeffu/status/2074717057837601020
@GuidoFawkes Farage says Starmer and Devon & Cornwall chief constable told him that Ann Widdecombe's death was a botched burglary:
“They both told me it’s a burglary that’s gone wrong. I said no it is not, a burglar does not park his car on your drive and walk into the house. A burglar parks in the layby down the road and has a getaway driver."
A burglary gone wrong was probably the likeliest scenario, right up to the point they realised the suspect had driven from Rotherham and back
I'm not sure about that. How many people get murdered by burglars each year? I reckon there might be more burglars killed by home owners.
Somebody needs to give this chap a lesson in humility or is it humiliation?
Thames Water boss says he ‘deserves’ £1m salary
Environment Secretary says chief executive’s ‘outrageous’ pay rise ‘flies in the face of basic fairness’
The boss of Thames Water has defended a pay rise to nearly £1m, saying he “deserved” it.
The water company’s annual report shows Chris Weston has received two pay rises since joining the struggling utilities giant. His basic salary rose by nearly 14pc to £995,000 as of April.
Mr Weston received the pay rise as Thames Water battles to avoid nationalisation. The company’s debts swelled to £18.5bn in the 12 months to the end of March and Thames warned it only had enough funding to see it through to the end of the year.
It also failed to hit environmental targets.
Asked about the salary increase, Mr Weston said: “[The board] offered it to me. I accepted. I absolutely think the pay rise is deserved.
“At Thames, we have to be able to attract the right quality of talent and experience to be able to run and lead a company in an extremely difficult situation.”
This is where Kemi could score if she only stopped trying to be one of the establishment and a Reform Ultra
A Sky article describes here as Burger Flipper - Burger Flipper to PM is a great story.
She was also brought up on the mean streets of Lagos as part of the Nigerian diaspora (a big voting bloc).
She had a real job as a "script kiddie" and web designer. I won't use the term "code monkey" as it could be misinterpreted but it was a real modern job in comparison to those that came through the Conservative research department.
And she is a birthright citizen, one of the last after the UK changed its laws to remove that form of citizenship.
So she could portray herself as definitely not the establishment and yet fails to use her advantages against the old school Tories in Reform. That's why Kemi is a dud.
Kemi's not a dud - she polls consistently better than the Tories as a whole. And I think she does quite a nice job of portraying herself as a bit unusual but still sane. The missing bit is any reason to vote Tory, other than habit. Can we think of one important feature of life that would probably get better for ordinary people under the Tories?
No Stamp Duty
You may as well say no income tax unless you say what you'll replace it with. And why didn't they do this in previous decades of power?
They won't replace it with anything, they will cut the welfare bill unlike Labour
Same question - Why should anyone believe that, when you have said that for decades now, and haven't been able to do so despite long periods of power and major re-organisations of welfare?
It's nonsense, you may as well promise some bigger nonsense than this small nonsense.
Kemi would restore the 2 child benefit cap for starters Labour ended and do the welfare reforms to get those with anxiety etc into work Starmer caved on and Burnham won't touch
The Conservative Party is still seen as the only party of the establishment, though that is a bit less so since Brexit. No party seen as the party of the people, though the Greens and LDs seen as more so than an establishment party, I would dispute that for the LDs who are arguably now the most establishment party of all.
Reform seen as less establishment and more for the people still than Starmer Labour even if since the Tory defections even Farage's party is now seen as leaning to the establishment more than the people. We will see if a Burnham led Labour is seen as a peoples' party again
There's a significant overlap between being seen as "not of the establishment" (which for most people is probably good) and "favouring drastic economic changes" (which for most people is probably bad). If Burnham (or anyone else) is able to present a medium-term plan which gradually rewards ordinary people, perhaps challenging the establishment but not reckless, that will gain very widespread support. I think that "gradual" is key here - people are up for changes to institutions, but not for taking big risks from one year to the next.
The ultimate anti establishment is probably being socialist economically but pro Brexit and socially conservative culturally
This is where Kemi could score if she only stopped trying to be one of the establishment and a Reform Ultra
A Sky article describes here as Burger Flipper - Burger Flipper to PM is a great story.
She was also brought up on the mean streets of Lagos as part of the Nigerian diaspora (a big voting bloc).
She had a real job as a "script kiddie" and web designer. I won't use the term "code monkey" as it could be misinterpreted but it was a real modern job in comparison to those that came through the Conservative research department.
And she is a birthright citizen, one of the last after the UK changed its laws to remove that form of citizenship.
So she could portray herself as definitely not the establishment and yet fails to use her advantages against the old school Tories in Reform. That's why Kemi is a dud.
Kemi's not a dud - she polls consistently better than the Tories as a whole. And I think she does quite a nice job of portraying herself as a bit unusual but still sane. The missing bit is any reason to vote Tory, other than habit. Can we think of one important feature of life that would probably get better for ordinary people under the Tories?
No Stamp Duty
You may as well say no income tax unless you say what you'll replace it with. And why didn't they do this in previous decades of power?
They won't replace it with anything, they will cut the welfare bill unlike Labour
Same question - Why should anyone believe that, when you have said that for decades now, and haven't been able to do so despite long periods of power and major re-organisations of welfare?
It's nonsense, you may as well promise some bigger nonsense than this small nonsense.
Kemi would restore the 2 child benefit cap for starters Labour ended
Just checked the figures. Since the triple lock was introduced, Inflation has been applied 5 times, increase in earnings 8 times, the 2.5% minimum twice, and in 2022/23 it was suspended, and inflation was used instead of earnings because wages had been artificially inflated by the unwind of the COVID furlough scheme. So, to those of you who want to scrap the triple lock, which bit(s) do you want to scrap?
Who will be the Chancellor willing to stand up to the TelegraphMailSun Guardian, when an insultingly paltry rise in pensions happens?
Comments
Genuine question
What would you do about the state pension ?
I should say I do not consider it sustainable and at some time it will need to be means tested
Palestine has a right to exist free of Genocide though
Not an expert on Allah TBF
It is the other income why you pay tax
Exactly 50 days ago I had my last cigarette, completely without planning to. I wouldn't have done that without vapes. (Nor without camping in the Lakes in a heatwave and facing a three mile walk with no shade to buy tabs).
Increasing retirement age to 70 and beyond is one solution, as is looking at just who is receiving it and their actual income level in retirement
None of this is easy, but ultimately it will be forced on politicians to address the issue
It can only rise at the rate of CPI going forward and in addition we are either going to have to
1. Tax wealth & raise other taxes to pay for it
2. Means Test it
3. Keep rising the age at which it is due
4. Take other goodies away from Pensioners like free travel
1. Would be my solution along with an immediate ditching of the TL and would not be opposed to 4
If we agree that the TL has largely done its job (which was to make the basic pension solid enough to not need a means-tested topup), what's the replacement? @eek's model sounds like a good and sellable one. Going back to the Thatcher inflation lock just means we're back here in 30 years' time.
If people are going to work longer (which does make sense), it means rethinking what that looks like. In some cases, that's about physical jobs that are undoable when people enter their pre-retirement years. In others, it's a question of moving people on so that younger people get a chance at the top jobs. In both cases, I'm sure there's a need for vocational mentoring/education (FE is crying out for people, and we want to expand FE... don't we?), but that function needs paying for...
2 and 3 are more likely in some form
The Russians have lost close on 1,500 air defence assets. As well as very expensive, these are losses that cannot be replaced at anything like the rate of loss. The more get hit, then those remaining become more obvious priority targets.
Ukraine is seeing the benefit of a long term programme of degarding this aspect of Russian defence. Whilst Putin might have a bunch of them protecting his properties, the life-blood of the Russian ecoomy - hydrocarbons - are left to all intents and purposes undefended. A couple of refineries a week is now at two or three a night.
Any other rational player faced with what confronts Russia would be turning round and going home. How long can Putin defy the inevitable? The longer he does, the worse will be the effect on the future Russian prospects. They will soon be a nation foraging for roots and berries...
Some tempers are fraying in Russia.
Now I've always expected my pension to be paid from the age of 68 rather than the 67 it's current supposed to be - however it's 2 late for me to factor in the £250,000 extra I would need to save if I don't get the state pension.
Well I could but my day to day reduction in spending if others followed me would send us into a depression..
Make them taxable and then the problem reduces.
Of course, the tax system is run by idiots as well, and there are all sorts of problems with it as Angela Rayner can explain, but that's a reason to sort out the tax system not to keep benefits outside it.
To be frank the biggest problem with any discussion about pensions is that most of the population haven't the first clue about what actually goes on..
So we have a rather odd loophole where if you're not required to complete a self assessment you don't have to pay tax on it.
LinkedIn is used by people who think they’re destined for the boardroom.
Instagram is used by people who want everyone to think they’ve already made it.
TikTok is used by people who think they will be running the next company before anyone notices.
Reddit is used by people who know exactly how everyone else should be running the country
Facebook is used by people trying to remember who everyone else is.
Footage of the bulk carrier Luni sinking in the Strait of Hormuz today after a hull fracture that led to it splitting in two near Bandar Abbas.
This comes as Trump claims to be "Guardian of the Strait of Hormuz."
https://x.com/HormuzLetter/status/2077118318088008072
70 year old scaffolders?
https://www.ladbrokes.com/en/sports/event/politics/uk/uk-politics/2026-clacton-by-election-void-if-no-by-election-in-2026/256996460/main-markets. Thank you PB.
The Iranians, on the other hand, don’t give a **** and are a bunch of scumbags who need to be bombed the hell out of the Straight of Hormuz.
Tories tend to be more major public school as do LDs but the Tories have certainly had plenty of ex grammar leaders and Truss went to a comp and Kemi was not major public school either
So in my world the triple lock stays - it’s just tidied up a bit
Keeping the triple lock in place and at the same time accelerating the future pension age is unbelievably unfair.
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2077297508611461357?s=20
Here I was, thinking that it was one of the original pillars of the Welfare State.
Pensioner poverty was a big thing, not that long ago.
Move 5 times in your career for work and pay the tax every time while someone who does not never does.
Alternatively, downsize when kids leave the nest allowing a new family to use a family home and you get taxed while someone who does not never does.
How is that right or reasonable?
https://x.com/i/status/2077297508611461357
https://www.britishpathe.com/asset/55696/
Argentina’s hatred of Britain and English football has reared its ugly head
Bitter recriminations from the Falklands War mean rivalry is about much more than football, especially for the South Americans
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2026/07/15/argentina-hate-england-more-than-we-hate-them-world-cup/
Zionist levels of propaganda would mean most people don't know that mind
https://www.jrf.org.uk/uk-poverty-statistics/overall-poverty-rates-for-children-working-age-adults-and-pensioners
She touches on some of the stranger things that he said. "A short list of the people who have ruined Britain". I recognise a few of these from more esoteric libertarian circles 12-15 years ago.
https://youtu.be/SvoAZKi2OY8?list=PL1GIlv9rKOu9AKhvzdXVYH3wNaWp3reoW&t=847
Plus she touches on his famous report - has anyone read this?
Lowe seems to have no filters on the conspiracy theories he embraces, and no sense of judgement on what he lets in.
Everyone knows there is a rivalry and why. Simpson went much further than that, assigning a [false] consequence to effects of who wins the match.
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
4m
It's a very poor sign if Andy Burnham is letting bond markets choose his Chancellor for him.
https://x.com/andrew_lilico/status/2077341411582574631
Since the triple lock was introduced,
Inflation has been applied 5 times,
increase in earnings 8 times,
the 2.5% minimum twice,
and in 2022/23 it was suspended, and inflation was used instead of earnings because wages had been artificially inflated by the unwind of the COVID furlough scheme.
So, to those of you who want to scrap the triple lock, which bit(s) do you want to scrap?
@GuidoFawkes
Farage says Starmer and Devon & Cornwall chief constable told him that Ann Widdecombe's death was a botched burglary:
“They both told me it’s a burglary that’s gone wrong. I said no it is not, a burglar does not park his car on your drive and walk into the house. A burglar parks in the layby down the road and has a getaway driver."
The Falklands War is the country’s inflexion point.
Nothing unites them more than their hatred of us.
That change would be minimal, but would allow the triple lock to continue serving its purpose of avoiding any need to means test pensioners..
Farage is milking the dreadful murder of Ann Widdecome without concern for the victim or her family. His choreographed presser on the weekend was quite frankly disgusting.
It's nonsense, you may as well promise some bigger nonsense than this small nonsense.
I think the triple lock was a useful mechanism for pulling the pension value up as it had fallen too low compared to incomes. But at some point we ought to decide what we think is a reasonable level for pensions, and "X % of average income" for some X seems OK to me. (Exact value of X up for debate...)
That would better illustrate the excess effect of the ratchet.
(edit) Dec 2025
https://ar.usembassy.gov/first-f-16-fighter-jets-arrive-in-argentina-with-u-s-support/
The first six F-16 fighter aircraft purchased by Argentina have landed in Río Cuarto (Cordoba), marking a major step in the country’s efforts to modernize its air capabilities and deepen defense cooperation with the United States.
U.S. Ambassador Peter Lamelas and officials from the U.S. Air Force took part in the arrival ceremony led by President Javier Milei, Defense Minister Luis Petri, and other Argentine authorities.
The United States supported Argentina throughout the acquisition process, approving the transfer of the U.S.-origin aircraft from Denmark and provided $40 million in Foreign Military Financing to help cover the down payment on the $560 million Foreign Military Sales package, through which the United States will supply training, maintenance, and long-term support. Argentina is providing the remaining funds.
Today’s delivery is the first of four batches. Six additional aircraft will arrive each December through 2028, bringing the total to 24 F-16s. The jets will operate initially in Río Cuarto before transitioning to their permanent base in Tandil.
・ゴミ箱伯爵: Gomibako Hakushaku ("Count Trash Can")
・ビンフェイス伯爵: Binfeisu Hakushaku ("Count Binface")
https://x.com/mrjeffu/status/2074717057837601020
Thames Water boss says he ‘deserves’ £1m salary
Environment Secretary says chief executive’s ‘outrageous’ pay rise ‘flies in the face of basic fairness’
The boss of Thames Water has defended a pay rise to nearly £1m, saying he “deserved” it.
The water company’s annual report shows Chris Weston has received two pay rises since joining the struggling utilities giant. His basic salary rose by nearly 14pc to £995,000 as of April.
Mr Weston received the pay rise as Thames Water battles to avoid nationalisation. The company’s debts swelled to £18.5bn in the 12 months to the end of March and Thames warned it only had enough funding to see it through to the end of the year.
It also failed to hit environmental targets.
Asked about the salary increase, Mr Weston said: “[The board] offered it to me. I accepted. I absolutely think the pay rise is deserved.
“At Thames, we have to be able to attract the right quality of talent and experience to be able to run and lead a company in an extremely difficult situation.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/07/15/thames-water-debt-pile-swells-to-18bn/
TelegraphMailSunGuardian, when an insultingly paltry rise in pensions happens?https://www.theguardian.com/politics/1999/oct/13/welfarereform.society