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Who will be the next Foreign Secretary? – politicalbetting.com

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  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 29,056
    dixiedean said:

    A full revaluation of every property for this purpose would take at least 5 years??

    Heard of Zoopla?
    See also https://houseprices.io/
  • eekeek Posts: 34,208
    Dopermean said:

    Dopermean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Dopermean said:

    eek said:

    Ratters said:

    https://x.com/mbdaytrading/status/2069698353307296240

    Andy Burnham is backing a proposal to scrap Council Tax and Stamp Duty, replacing them with a Proportional Property Tax (PPT).

    📌 Rate: 0.48% of current property value
    📌 Cap: £1,200 per year initially
    📌 Supporters claim 77% of households would save an average £556 annually

    A major reform if it ever gains traction. Winners and losers would depend heavily on property values and location.

    Average Band D in England is just over £2k so capping it at £1,200 and 77% paying less suggests in terms of properties mid Band D.

    Liverpools band A is around £1,600 so unless people in London are going to get hammered I can’t see how they can hold it at £1,200?

    Peter.
    My thought exactly.

    Can't be much lower sum than people are currently paying is my guess.
    Lot of people paying more in London!
    King of the North
    Slayer of the South....

    One of the problems of selling this as a policy is that if I have no intention of selling my home, there is no saving in Stamp Duty by its abolition for me. So it has to stack up against current Council Tax for mot.


    You always have the option of downsizing and reducing your costs. The costs of moving will be much lower without stamp duty.

    I mean 'you' as in people in a similar position often end up with family homes bigger than they need. Which is fine. But it's also fair you pay your fair share as much as someone who moves homes more often for their career or to climb the properly ladder or to downside.

    Stamp duty is just a really, really terrible tax.
    "always have the option to sell" --> Granny forced to sell by Burnham's hated new tax....

    It has the potential to be Burnham's WFA squared....
    Not if you allow the people impacted to put the unpaid amount as a charge against the property.

    Equally if you are that house rich and cash poor it’s probably time to move
    Does this mean complete central government control of local government funding?
    Can't see that being democratic or why places with higher property values should be subsidizing refuse collection in places with lower values...
    That's before the economic illiteracy of collecting less than currently, what makes up the shortfall?

    Politically and economically you need to be very careful f'ing with taxes that could have large (obvious but stupidly ignored) consequences.

    Barring the councils for which the system was originally fixed (Westminster, Wandsworth and City of London), there are no London Band As that aren't comfortably over £1200, I expect that's true for England and Wales.
    It's a cap of an increase of 1200.
    There'll be many more winners than losers. Most of them in the North.
    Levelling up in practice.
    After housing costs there's a large proportion of people in the South with quite low disposable income comparatively... probably in the main Labour voters
    Is this being paid by the property owner or the resident?

    I have very low expectations, though I vote for him over Corbyn, but it's all pointing to him being a massive fuckup.
    So having found the Fairer share website, I understand that this is to be paid by the resident not the property owner.
    So renters in areas with high property values paying more tax on top of their high rents.

    With a cap of £1200 increase, so making it highly regressive, the effect will be a tax cut for comfortably off homeowners at the expense of struggling renters.

    If it's going to be changed to make it a property value tax (which I'd support) then it should be levelled on the property owners.

    But that would simply be passed on to the tenants via higher rents.

    I guess the devil here is in the details and there is going to be a lot of details - 1 of which is that income tax seems to be what councils will be getting a share of with this property tax going to central Government.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 29,056
    I can do a graph. My quote is "Tea and Biscuits. With occasional bacon roll". Let's not be too greedy :)
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,263
    eek said:

    Dopermean said:

    Dopermean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Dopermean said:

    eek said:

    Ratters said:

    https://x.com/mbdaytrading/status/2069698353307296240

    Andy Burnham is backing a proposal to scrap Council Tax and Stamp Duty, replacing them with a Proportional Property Tax (PPT).

    📌 Rate: 0.48% of current property value
    📌 Cap: £1,200 per year initially
    📌 Supporters claim 77% of households would save an average £556 annually

    A major reform if it ever gains traction. Winners and losers would depend heavily on property values and location.

    Average Band D in England is just over £2k so capping it at £1,200 and 77% paying less suggests in terms of properties mid Band D.

    Liverpools band A is around £1,600 so unless people in London are going to get hammered I can’t see how they can hold it at £1,200?

    Peter.
    My thought exactly.

    Can't be much lower sum than people are currently paying is my guess.
    Lot of people paying more in London!
    King of the North
    Slayer of the South....

    One of the problems of selling this as a policy is that if I have no intention of selling my home, there is no saving in Stamp Duty by its abolition for me. So it has to stack up against current Council Tax for mot.


    You always have the option of downsizing and reducing your costs. The costs of moving will be much lower without stamp duty.

    I mean 'you' as in people in a similar position often end up with family homes bigger than they need. Which is fine. But it's also fair you pay your fair share as much as someone who moves homes more often for their career or to climb the properly ladder or to downside.

    Stamp duty is just a really, really terrible tax.
    "always have the option to sell" --> Granny forced to sell by Burnham's hated new tax....

    It has the potential to be Burnham's WFA squared....
    Not if you allow the people impacted to put the unpaid amount as a charge against the property.

    Equally if you are that house rich and cash poor it’s probably time to move
    Does this mean complete central government control of local government funding?
    Can't see that being democratic or why places with higher property values should be subsidizing refuse collection in places with lower values...
    That's before the economic illiteracy of collecting less than currently, what makes up the shortfall?

    Politically and economically you need to be very careful f'ing with taxes that could have large (obvious but stupidly ignored) consequences.

    Barring the councils for which the system was originally fixed (Westminster, Wandsworth and City of London), there are no London Band As that aren't comfortably over £1200, I expect that's true for England and Wales.
    It's a cap of an increase of 1200.
    There'll be many more winners than losers. Most of them in the North.
    Levelling up in practice.
    After housing costs there's a large proportion of people in the South with quite low disposable income comparatively... probably in the main Labour voters
    Is this being paid by the property owner or the resident?

    I have very low expectations, though I vote for him over Corbyn, but it's all pointing to him being a massive fuckup.
    So having found the Fairer share website, I understand that this is to be paid by the resident not the property owner.
    So renters in areas with high property values paying more tax on top of their high rents.

    With a cap of £1200 increase, so making it highly regressive, the effect will be a tax cut for comfortably off homeowners at the expense of struggling renters.

    If it's going to be changed to make it a property value tax (which I'd support) then it should be levelled on the property owners.

    But that would simply be passed on to the tenants via higher rents.

    I guess the devil here is in the details and there is going to be a lot of details - 1 of which is that income tax seems to be what councils will be getting a share of with this property tax going to central Government.
    Even if landlords try to pass it on via higher rents, I expect that would be a better result for renters than paying a % of the value of a property you don't own.

    How are you selling this to someone in their 20s paying 40-50% of their disposable income to rent a 1 bed flat? They'll now have to pay another £100 per month because the huge rent they struggle to pay for the flat they don't own means it's worth £x00K?

    My memory of that stage of life is my colleagues up north who'd bought themselves a flat or house and a car moaning about London weighting, while myself and my colleagues in London were renting rooms in a houseshare or maybe stretching to renting a 1 bed with a partner.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,616
    I fear South Africa's win dooms Scotland to a group stage exit.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,082
    Unlucky to Scotland against Brazil.

    The Tartan Army have certainly had a great time at the World Cup, by most reports one of the best sets of fans.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,082
    Interesting podcast I just listened to on the way to work:

    Triggernometry discusses the Makerfield by-election result, ft Dan Hodges and Julia H-B.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNom9l2SWqU (1hr)

    It was filmed before Starmer resigned, but they were all clearly expecting it this week and discussed most of what we’re now discussing.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,082
    edited 4:11AM
    Earthquake in Venezuela looks like it will be today’s biggest story, pictures are showing tower blocks flattened, looks like there will be thousands of casualties. 7.5 magnitude.

    https://x.com/realmaalouf/status/2069956609241915590
    https://x.com/visegrad24/status/2069932527679160813
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,082
    Oh, I nearly forgot the obligatory Russian O&G facility on fire.

    Today’s is at Poltavskaya oil depot, Krasnodar Krai.

    https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/2069979156461265273
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,616
    Sandpit said:

    Unlucky to Scotland against Brazil.

    The Tartan Army have certainly had a great time at the World Cup, by most reports one of the best sets of fans.

    And a very difficult group: Brazil and Morocco are fifth and sixth in the FIFA World Rankings. Had Scotland managed a draw (which they'd deserved) against Morocco, they would be comfortably heading through to the knockout stages.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,218
    0.48% even means a cut or at least no more for my parents in Coventry and their house is enormous lol.

    Would be a cut for all but the very very largest houses for the whole of the wider Midlands and the north.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,986
    edited 4:22AM


    Natasha Clark
    @NatashaC
    ·
    1h
    Bridget Phillipson tells @AndrewMarr9 @lbc she will go get a T-shirt saying “spiteful class warrior” after her spat with Kemi Badenoch

    Badenoch is a nasty piece of work.

    John Crace nails it:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/24/graceless-kemi-badenoch-keir-starmer-pmqs-sketch

    "Here was a chance for Kemi Badenoch to show her human side. To give the world a rare sighting of her empathy gene. But Kemi just can’t go there. She can’t read a room. She has only one mode. All-out attack. Other people’s moments of weakness are just material for her to use against them. Even now, she probably thinks she played a blinder at prime minister’s questions. A chance taken to humiliate Keir when he’s down. She has no idea how graceless she is. How charmless. All the more so because she has played no part in Starmer’s resignation. The Conservatives have just been bystanders. There has been no dramatic intervention by Kemi. No set piece in which she has exposed his weakness and forced the issue. Keir’s departure was purely between him and the Labour party. It was Keir’s MPs who had given up on him. No one else. "

    "The mad thing is that it would have taken so little for Kemi to have come out of PMQs looking good. In their first exchanges after a Downing Street resignation, it’s customary for the leader of the opposition to say something complimentary about the outgoing prime minister. It doesn’t even have to be very much. She could have said she admired his steadfast support for Ukraine. Or gone for the human touch. That she had enjoyed the conversations they had held in private. Had loved meeting his wife and kids. Wished him all the very best. But Kemi would rather die than do this. She sees kindness as a sign of weakness. It would have cost her what passes for her self-worth. Had she done this – allowed even a forced croak of kindness to escape her lips – then everything that followed would have been OK. Kemi would have bossed the show. As it was, she crashed and burned. Her language becoming progressively more angry and violent the longer she went on. It was the behaviour of a spoiled child. A playground bully whom her party doesn’t dare to call out."
    She seems to be upsetting all the right people

    And gaining in popularity which is again upsetting some

    And just recall how Starmer behaved towards Boris in exactly the same way

    And the idea she played no part in Starmer's downfall is nonsense because without her humble address Starmer would have got away with Mandelson

    Politics is Politics

    The truth hurts and Kemi is sticking it to them. Bravo.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,082
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Unlucky to Scotland against Brazil.

    The Tartan Army have certainly had a great time at the World Cup, by most reports one of the best sets of fans.

    And a very difficult group: Brazil and Morocco are fifth and sixth in the FIFA World Rankings. Had Scotland managed a draw (which they'd deserved) against Morocco, they would be comfortably heading through to the knockout stages.
    Yes, Morocco are a highly-rated team and Scotland were unlucky there. Brazil are Brazil, we always expect them to turn up for this tournament and it won’t be much of a surprise if they make the final.

    I’m sure the Scots fans will still be drinking Miami dry for a few days to come! A few of them might even head back to Boston for what would have been their first knockout match - with their kilts, bagpipes, and traffic cones!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,082
    edited 4:44AM
    Pulpstar said:

    0.48% even means a cut or at least no more for my parents in Coventry and their house is enormous lol.

    Would be a cut for all but the very very largest houses for the whole of the wider Midlands and the north.

    There’s way more questions than answers for moving to a land value or property value tax. It’s probably the preferred end state, but the way there will be very rocky indeed.

    Land value or property value?
    Introduced all at once, or on property sale?
    Revaluation needed?
    Rates set locally or nationally?
    Stamp duty income deficit problem in the short term?
    Perhaps even stamp duty refunds or tapers?
    Landlord or tenant gets the bill?
    Value uplift for planning permission?

    Politically, the key will be if whole communities (constituencies) are affected negatively all at once. So for example will a national house price valuation brought in as a big bang, mean that Labour loses every seat they have in London (and perhaps even central Manchester, Bristol…).

    Some of us are old enough to remember 1990, when a messed-up property tax cost the job of the most successful and transformative PM since WWII.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,616
    Dopermean said:

    eek said:

    Dopermean said:

    Dopermean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Dopermean said:

    eek said:

    Ratters said:

    https://x.com/mbdaytrading/status/2069698353307296240

    Andy Burnham is backing a proposal to scrap Council Tax and Stamp Duty, replacing them with a Proportional Property Tax (PPT).

    📌 Rate: 0.48% of current property value
    📌 Cap: £1,200 per year initially
    📌 Supporters claim 77% of households would save an average £556 annually

    A major reform if it ever gains traction. Winners and losers would depend heavily on property values and location.

    Average Band D in England is just over £2k so capping it at £1,200 and 77% paying less suggests in terms of properties mid Band D.

    Liverpools band A is around £1,600 so unless people in London are going to get hammered I can’t see how they can hold it at £1,200?

    Peter.
    My thought exactly.

    Can't be much lower sum than people are currently paying is my guess.
    Lot of people paying more in London!
    King of the North
    Slayer of the South....

    One of the problems of selling this as a policy is that if I have no intention of selling my home, there is no saving in Stamp Duty by its abolition for me. So it has to stack up against current Council Tax for mot.


    You always have the option of downsizing and reducing your costs. The costs of moving will be much lower without stamp duty.

    I mean 'you' as in people in a similar position often end up with family homes bigger than they need. Which is fine. But it's also fair you pay your fair share as much as someone who moves homes more often for their career or to climb the properly ladder or to downside.

    Stamp duty is just a really, really terrible tax.
    "always have the option to sell" --> Granny forced to sell by Burnham's hated new tax....

    It has the potential to be Burnham's WFA squared....
    Not if you allow the people impacted to put the unpaid amount as a charge against the property.

    Equally if you are that house rich and cash poor it’s probably time to move
    Does this mean complete central government control of local government funding?
    Can't see that being democratic or why places with higher property values should be subsidizing refuse collection in places with lower values...
    That's before the economic illiteracy of collecting less than currently, what makes up the shortfall?

    Politically and economically you need to be very careful f'ing with taxes that could have large (obvious but stupidly ignored) consequences.

    Barring the councils for which the system was originally fixed (Westminster, Wandsworth and City of London), there are no London Band As that aren't comfortably over £1200, I expect that's true for England and Wales.
    It's a cap of an increase of 1200.
    There'll be many more winners than losers. Most of them in the North.
    Levelling up in practice.
    After housing costs there's a large proportion of people in the South with quite low disposable income comparatively... probably in the main Labour voters
    Is this being paid by the property owner or the resident?

    I have very low expectations, though I vote for him over Corbyn, but it's all pointing to him being a massive fuckup.
    So having found the Fairer share website, I understand that this is to be paid by the resident not the property owner.
    So renters in areas with high property values paying more tax on top of their high rents.

    With a cap of £1200 increase, so making it highly regressive, the effect will be a tax cut for comfortably off homeowners at the expense of struggling renters.

    If it's going to be changed to make it a property value tax (which I'd support) then it should be levelled on the property owners.

    But that would simply be passed on to the tenants via higher rents.

    I guess the devil here is in the details and there is going to be a lot of details - 1 of which is that income tax seems to be what councils will be getting a share of with this property tax going to central Government.
    Even if landlords try to pass it on via higher rents, I expect that would be a better result for renters than paying a % of the value of a property you don't own.

    How are you selling this to someone in their 20s paying 40-50% of their disposable income to rent a 1 bed flat? They'll now have to pay another £100 per month because the huge rent they struggle to pay for the flat they don't own means it's worth £x00K?

    My memory of that stage of life is my colleagues up north who'd bought themselves a flat or house and a car moaning about London weighting, while myself and my colleagues in London were renting rooms in a houseshare or maybe stretching to renting a 1 bed with a partner.
    You are quite mad if you rent a one bedroom flat.

    When I was in my early (and mid) 20s, I lived in a house share in East London, because that meant I could save for a deposit on a flat. If I'd rented a one bedroom apartment, I would never have been able to save.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,455

    General Donahue’s removal is said to be part of an ongoing push by Hegseth to put his imprint on the military’s leadership, while squeezing out officers with track records of battlefield valor and command experience in favor of less accomplished political loyalists, officers that fully support both himself and President Trump.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2069773181334773907



    Only two more years and three or so months to go kids.

    If true, a major reason why we should increase our defence spending. The question though is on what and from whom.

    And on the Kemi debate ... elections don't lie so what is the scorecard now?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,082
    Very interesting report from Moscow, that the “Freedom of Russia Legion” have taken out six Gazprom fuel distribution sites in the greater Moscow Region.

    https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/2069876461943566478

    These guys appear to be pro-Ukraine Russian terrorists, fighting in the war against their own country from the inside! Hopefully they can evade capture by Russia, or seek asylum in Ukraine.
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