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Keir today, gone tomorrow (well September) – politicalbetting.com

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  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 717

    Sweeney74 said:

    viewcode said:

    @TheScreamingEagles , @rcs1000, my article please! Amaze amaze amaze! It is short and sweet and pleasant! Good timing, yes?!

    Just finished reading PHM, better than the film, much much much.
    Fist my bump
    The film is still magnificent.
    It's a good film, I really enjoyed it.
    The book is much better.
    Just like The Martian was a good film, just not as good as the book.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,989

    Thinking about all the living ex-PMs, and I can't say that I think any of them went before their time.

    I would say that Britain is going through PMs extraordinarily quickly because the people chosen to become PM simply aren't that good at it.

    Will Burnham be better? Will he be good enough to remain PM after the next election?

    I would guess not. But he has a better chance than Starmer did.

    We’re about to have 10 living PMs. Must have been a while since that was the case.

    Major
    Blair
    Brown
    Cameron
    May
    Johnson
    Truss
    Sunak
    Starmer
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,775
    SKS goes to podium lists his "achievements", many of which are pure fiction, fails to acknowledge any mistakes.

    Total lack of self awareness to the end.

    If he has been as successful as he thinks why has he gone. SKS Fans please explain
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,527

    Thinking about all the living ex-PMs, and I can't say that I think any of them went before their time.

    I would say that Britain is going through PMs extraordinarily quickly because the people chosen to become PM simply aren't that good at it.

    Will Burnham be better? Will he be good enough to remain PM after the next election?

    I would guess not. But he has a better chance than Starmer did.

    Maybe we need to look further back at who become MPs.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 10,156
    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone know how long nomiations will be open for? Trying to work out the earliest date that Burnham could become PM.

    Nominations open from 9th to 16th July.

    I guess the question is can the NEC truncate the campaign at that point, if there’s only one unopposed nomination? Presumably they meet this week to set the rules.
    Thanks. So Burnham could be PM on Friday 17th July.
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5580167#Comment_5580167
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,137

    Mortimer said:

    I half wonder if Ed Balls might be drafted into the Lords and appointed Chancellor....

    Him and Burnham are pals from the old days, aren't they? I remember that swing photoshoot.

    Chancellor has to be a member of the Commons.
    We could always have another by-election ...
  • glwglw Posts: 10,938
    Sweeney74 said:

    Peter Brookes in The Times:

    I think we are close to that point already. On Radio 5 this morning the listeners texting the show were almost entirely opposed to what is happening. The only people who seem convinced that Burnham is the answer, and that a change of leadership will solve our problems, are the Parliamentary Labour Party. The listeners to Radio 5 many of whom claimed to be Labour supporters and members were adamant that the goings-on in Westminster were not to their liking.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,632
    edited 9:19AM
    Off-topic from The Atlantic:

    Iran Has Humiliated Trump - Officials in Tehran got the United States to sign a document that even Americans described as degrading, mortifying, a total capitulation.

    Normally one would have to pay a lot of money to a discreet professional to be humiliated this badly. Watching Trump and his aides sell the deal is in some ways as humiliating as the deal itself.

    Humiliation, however, is distinct from defeat. Only the United States was humiliated; both countries have experienced a catastrophic loss. The defeat for the United States is the more obvious of the two: a loss of standing and the confirmation that even a rich country cannot force its will on a poor but determined one. For Iran, the defeat is subtler. Bordering countries once considered it a problem neighbor and now know it to be an outright threat.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,101

    SKS goes to podium lists his "achievements", many of which are pure fiction, fails to acknowledge any mistakes.

    Total lack of self awareness to the end.

    If he has been as successful as he thinks why has he gone. SKS Fans please explain

    I’ll miss the SKS fans please explain
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,527
    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    I half wonder if Ed Balls might be drafted into the Lords and appointed Chancellor....

    Him and Burnham are pals from the old days, aren't they? I remember that swing photoshoot.

    Chancellor has to be a member of the Commons.
    All we need then is for someone to stand down for him in a by-election...
    Groundhog day?
  • Barnesian said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone know how long nomiations will be open for? Trying to work out the earliest date that Burnham could become PM.

    Nominations open from 9th to 16th July.

    I guess the question is can the NEC truncate the campaign at that point, if there’s only one unopposed nomination? Presumably they meet this week to set the rules.
    Thanks. So Burnham could be PM on Friday 17th July.
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5580167#Comment_5580167
    Extremely good prediction skills
  • Thanks @TheScreamingEagles for the tip on Starmer exit date Q2 2026, which I locked in for a £30 profit yesterday.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,942
    Sandpit said:

    Thinking about all the living ex-PMs, and I can't say that I think any of them went before their time.

    I would say that Britain is going through PMs extraordinarily quickly because the people chosen to become PM simply aren't that good at it.

    Will Burnham be better? Will he be good enough to remain PM after the next election?

    I would guess not. But he has a better chance than Starmer did.

    We’re about to have 10 living PMs. Must have been a while since that was the case.

    Major
    Blair
    Brown
    Cameron
    May
    Johnson
    Truss
    Sunak
    Starmer
    It's a great shame that Howard was never PM. We'd have 10 living and one unliving if that'd been the case.


    (I hope he's well)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,169
    Hats off to Kemi. A big win.
  • eekeek Posts: 34,149

    Pulpstar said:

    This will be my son’s fifth prime minister since he was born - and he’s 6.

    https://x.com/jessicaelgot/status/2068964817344266383

    Mine has got their second for their second birthday…

    https://x.com/PGourtsoyannis/status/2068980810091266392

    It'll be my daughter's fifth and she only turned 4 a couple of months ago.
    Burham will be the sixth PM since July 2016 so six PMs in 10 years.

    Prior to that, we only had six PMs in 40 years.
    The point of Brexit was to take back control.

    I think all it’s showing is how ungovernable this country is with expectations well beyond reality
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,699

    Can we have a list of media lefties from July 2024 with their predictions of how successful Starmer would be as PM.

    Here's one to start off with:

    The arrogant, reckless Tory government left behind a mountain of mess. In one week, we’ve begun to clear it.

    Now is the time for politics as public service. A government committed not to its self-preservation but to uniting the country in the shared mission of national renewal. The start of the road back to restoring people’s hope and faith that politics can be a force for good. No more gimmicks, lies and self-serving self-obsession – this government knows we have a duty to the people we are elected to serve.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/12/toory-government-mess-keir-starmer

    Keir Starmer was not a media lefty although he might become one later this year.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,722
    IanB2 said:

    Off-topic from The Atlantic:

    Iran Has Humiliated Trump - Officials in Tehran got the United States to sign a document that even Americans described as degrading, mortifying, a total capitulation.

    Normally one would have to pay a lot of money to a discreet professional to be humiliated this badly. Watching Trump and his aides sell the deal is in some ways as humiliating as the deal itself.

    Humiliation, however, is distinct from defeat. Only the United States was humiliated; both countries have experienced a catastrophic loss. The defeat for the United States is the more obvious of the two: a loss of standing and the confirmation that even a rich country cannot force its will on a poor but determined one. For Iran, the defeat is subtler. Bordering countries once considered it a problem neighbor and now know it to be an outright threat.

    That sounds like their Washington Week at the weekend?

    They strangely to me seem to persist in trying to understand Trump through a lens of rationality and considered outcomes, which I do not understand.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,632

    SKS goes to podium lists his "achievements", many of which are pure fiction, fails to acknowledge any mistakes.

    Total lack of self awareness to the end.

    If he has been as successful as he thinks why has he gone. SKS Fans please explain

    I’ll miss the SKS fans please explain
    AMB fans - of which he starts with rather more - might have some explaining to do, before too long?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,773
    edited 9:24AM
    Mortimer said:

    I half wonder if Ed Balls might be drafted into the Lords and appointed Chancellor....

    Him and Burnham are pals from the old days, aren't they? I remember that swing photoshoot.

    Burnham has 400 MPs to choose from, comes in with few obligations to existing cabinet members, and has a mandate to clear the dead wood. I suspect we'll see a lot of turnover in the cabinet, just as with Johnson when he became PM.

    I think for CoE you want, as PM:

    1. An ability to make the numbers add up. There's relatively little room for fudge;
    2. Someone you trust. Your CoE is key to delivering your agenda and can make or break your premiership;
    3. A canny political operator. The CoE has more agency than any other minister, probably including yourself - make it count politically. They also get a huge amount of attention.

    Contrary to many on here I think Rachel Reeves was fine for 1 & 2, as Ed Miliband would also be. The problem is neither has the political nous.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,699

    Thanks @TheScreamingEagles for the tip on Starmer exit date Q2 2026, which I locked in for a £30 profit yesterday.

    Starmer's exit date will be Q3 so it was wise to cash out.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,632

    Hats off to Kemi. A big win.

    Have we missed that she's been co-opted onto her local parish council, amid all the excitement?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,732

    Jessica Elgot
    @jessicaelgot
    ·
    25m
    If there are no challengers then you can expect Andy Burnham to be prime minister on or around July 17th.

    Two members of NEC confirm to the Guardian that Burnham can in theory be prime minister the day after nominations close.

    https://x.com/jessicaelgot/status/2068981700915331294
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,417
    Days like this you realise how overstaffed the BBC is. Instead of insight and comment from people in the know, you have them interviewing each other while spouting unevidenced comments.

    Just waiting from Trump to announce his support for his long time friend Andy Burnham, and then the BBC interviewing each other about what it means.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,571
    Sandpit said:

    Thinking about all the living ex-PMs, and I can't say that I think any of them went before their time.

    I would say that Britain is going through PMs extraordinarily quickly because the people chosen to become PM simply aren't that good at it.

    Will Burnham be better? Will he be good enough to remain PM after the next election?

    I would guess not. But he has a better chance than Starmer did.

    We’re about to have 10 living PMs. Must have been a while since that was the case.

    Major
    Blair
    Brown
    Cameron
    May
    Johnson
    Truss
    Sunak
    Starmer
    Never. It's never been the case before.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 29,004
    Self-serving delaying nominations to the 9th in order to guarantee his anniversary, but expected that.
  • eekeek Posts: 34,149
    Battlebus said:

    Days like this you realise how overstaffed the BBC is. Instead of insight and comment from people in the know, you have them interviewing each other while spouting unevidenced comments.

    Just waiting from Trump to announce his support for his long time friend Andy Burnham, and then the BBC interviewing each other about what it means.

    They have 24 hours of news tv to fill with no news.

    Unless it’s immensely profitable form overseas sales (which it can’t be) I would be closing that channel down to save money
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,775
    LABurnham fans not many sleeps now
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 48,055
    A busy Thursday, early test of the Burnham honeymoon?

    'Give us a chance luv, haven't even got me keks off'

    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    A massive TWENTY-ONE Council By-Elections are taking place this Thursday, alongside 2 Countermanded Elections:

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2068968237673447430?s=20
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,699
    Battlebus said:

    Days like this you realise how overstaffed the BBC is. Instead of insight and comment from people in the know, you have them interviewing each other while spouting unevidenced comments.

    Just waiting from Trump to announce his support for his long time friend Andy Burnham, and then the BBC interviewing each other about what it means.

    Any of the media podcasts are the same – Times hacks interviewing Times hacks; Telegraph same; Spectator same.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,551
    If I understood Starmer's speech correctly, he agreed to be a senior shadow cabinet member of a corrupt and morally bankrupt opposition, and in the following six years as leader then PM sorted first the party and then as PM the country so that country and party are on the best possible track; in the process of performing this six year miracle he has lost the confidence of his own MPs to the extent that they have more or less no belief that they can keep their seats with him as leader.

    His account makes no sense.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,989
    Omnium said:

    Sandpit said:

    Thinking about all the living ex-PMs, and I can't say that I think any of them went before their time.

    I would say that Britain is going through PMs extraordinarily quickly because the people chosen to become PM simply aren't that good at it.

    Will Burnham be better? Will he be good enough to remain PM after the next election?

    I would guess not. But he has a better chance than Starmer did.

    We’re about to have 10 living PMs. Must have been a while since that was the case.

    Major
    Blair
    Brown
    Cameron
    May
    Johnson
    Truss
    Sunak
    Starmer
    It's a great shame that Howard was never PM. We'd have 10 living and one unliving if that'd been the case.


    (I hope he's well)
    If Wiki is right, there’s 14 living LOTOs, back to Kinnock. The only one since then to pass away is John Smith.

    It does include Margaret Beckett and Hattie Harman (x2) though, who were in post only temporarily, alongside Major and Sunak who stayed in post until after leadership elections.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leader_of_the_Opposition_(United_Kingdom)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,087

    When does Burnham’s long march to London begin? Can we expect tanks?

    "He will make an excellent drone!"
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,466
    Sweeney74 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    viewcode said:

    @TheScreamingEagles , @rcs1000, my article please! Amaze amaze amaze! It is short and sweet and pleasant! Good timing, yes?!

    Just finished reading PHM, better than the film, much much much.
    Fist my bump
    The film is still magnificent.
    It's a good film, I really enjoyed it.
    The book is much better.
    Just like The Martian was a good film, just not as good as the book.
    PHM? Is this a code?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,463


    Jessica Elgot
    @jessicaelgot
    ·
    25m
    If there are no challengers then you can expect Andy Burnham to be prime minister on or around July 17th.

    Two members of NEC confirm to the Guardian that Burnham can in theory be prime minister the day after nominations close.

    https://x.com/jessicaelgot/status/2068981700915331294

    Good to have it confirmed. It should all happen a lot faster in my opinion. 4 weeks of drift suboptimal for the country.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,087
    Sandpit said:

    Thinking about all the living ex-PMs, and I can't say that I think any of them went before their time.

    I would say that Britain is going through PMs extraordinarily quickly because the people chosen to become PM simply aren't that good at it.

    Will Burnham be better? Will he be good enough to remain PM after the next election?

    I would guess not. But he has a better chance than Starmer did.

    We’re about to have 10 living PMs. Must have been a while since that was the case.

    Major
    Blair
    Brown
    Cameron
    May
    Johnson
    Truss
    Sunak
    Starmer
    Bunch of lightweights (but Boris is just muscle)
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,417
    Sweeney74 said:

    The average life expectancy of a newly installed PM over the last 15 years is about 2.7 years. My new dishwasher has a longer warranty.

    Perhaps we should recycle PM's rather than discarding them. A question to Ed about this perhaps?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,895
    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone and thanks for the header.

    I'm off topic today, so I have a question about Council Problem Reporting Apps.

    Does anyone have any experience with these? I'm playing with the Notts CC one, which lets me report from the spot just by talking to my mobile phone, and my first reported broken fence was repaired in about 3 days - which is somewhere between outstanding and commendable. So they are now going to get various problems reported from my daily constitutionals.

    Of course, the bloody thing limits locations it recognises largely to ROADS. Public highways such as Public Footpaths and Bridleways, and Council provided pathways - nope, so it engages a reporting process which takes 5x as long, unless one can finesse it into a roads-adjacent category. Parks - not sure yet. And so on.

    And the categories of fault are what we refer to as motor-normative. I can report a smashed up pavement caused by people parking on it on a massively wide road, causing trip hazards and compensation payments to pensioners with broken bones, but deal with the cause of the smashed up pavement - no hope there, at least in Notts at this time.

    We shall see.

    Do they display the reported problems on a publicly accessible web site? With a map?

    That's the key to getting something does, I reckon....
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,571
    algarkirk said:

    If I understood Starmer's speech correctly, he agreed to be a senior shadow cabinet member of a corrupt and morally bankrupt opposition, and in the following six years as leader then PM sorted first the party and then as PM the country so that country and party are on the best possible track; in the process of performing this six year miracle he has lost the confidence of his own MPs to the extent that they have more or less no belief that they can keep their seats with him as leader.

    His account makes no sense.

    It was a succinct account of why he failed as PM provided you are aware of all the context missing from it.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,313
    algarkirk said:

    If I understood Starmer's speech correctly, he agreed to be a senior shadow cabinet member of a corrupt and morally bankrupt opposition, and in the following six years as leader then PM sorted first the party and then as PM the country so that country and party are on the best possible track; in the process of performing this six year miracle he has lost the confidence of his own MPs to the extent that they have more or less no belief that they can keep their seats with him as leader.

    His account makes no sense.

    Well it does, if you assume being leader of the Labour Party and being PM might actually be two different jobs.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,169
    He blubbed.

    The utter hatred of Starmer for his eulogy to his father on Father's Day in X yesterday is worth a look. The entire nation loathe him.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,492
    Selebian said:

    Despite all the sneering, I thought Starmer's exit statement was statesmanlike and dignified, clearly putting the Labour Party before his own ego. Very different from Boris's waspish words when he left the stage.

    One of his better speeches, for sure.

    If he'd been able to sell that list of achievements, he might not be out!
    From the beginning of his time in office, Starmer's comms were mostly terrible. The contrast between suited Starmer and more casual Burnham is already a visual metaphor for something changing. However, colour me sceptical about whether Burnham can actually make a difference. Starmer has some solid achievements, but they are all rather bitty and partial.

    Will Burnham change the electoral system? That seems to me to be the acid test of how serious he is going to be about really changing the country. Will he tackle the structure of government and put the Treasury in its place? Will he address the crisis in local government? Infrastructure? Education? Productivity? Start the process of tax simplification?

    As we know, we campaign in poetry but govern in prose. Can Burnham do that? For the sake of the country, I hope he can, but I am not so certain that the country even wants to be governed. Politics McPoliticsface- Farage- is a fundamentally dangerous choice, but still nearly a quarter of the UK wants to make that choice.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,699
    Hmm. Burnham and gambling taxes? He co-signed this letter which was mainly about opposing the proliferation of betting shops but includes a call for a new levy.
    https://www.brent.gov.uk/-/media/files/news-documents/brent-council-open-letter-on-gambling-harms.pdf
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 23,091
    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    This will be my son’s fifth prime minister since he was born - and he’s 6.

    https://x.com/jessicaelgot/status/2068964817344266383

    Mine has got their second for their second birthday…

    https://x.com/PGourtsoyannis/status/2068980810091266392

    It'll be my daughter's fifth and she only turned 4 a couple of months ago.
    Burham will be the sixth PM since July 2016 so six PMs in 10 years.

    Prior to that, we only had six PMs in 40 years.
    The point of Brexit was to take back control.

    I think all it’s showing is how ungovernable this country is with expectations well beyond reality
    One of the more plausible arguments for Brexit was the one that said it stopped British politicians slopey-sholdering things that go wrong onto Europe. One point of sharp accountability. If the Westminster government doesn't deliver what the people want, the Westminster government is responsible and they're out.

    What that argument doesn't account for is when the people want things that are impossible. Or impossible without absurd cost or consequences. Or get overtaken by events. Or when the people want multiple things that contradict.

    That problem was there before 2016, but it's been worse... much worse... since.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,506

    A busy Thursday, early test of the Burnham honeymoon?

    'Give us a chance luv, haven't even got me keks off'

    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    A massive TWENTY-ONE Council By-Elections are taking place this Thursday, alongside 2 Countermanded Elections:

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2068968237673447430?s=20

    Quite a mixed bag of results from the 18 or thereabouts last week, too. Too early, I suspect, to be sure that Reform has peaked, but I wonder if Sir Keir's resignation will improve Labour's chances.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,463
    edited 9:35AM
    With the Tories, nominations would probably open tomorrow, and the new PM would be in place by next week (assuming only one candidate).
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,313
    eek said:

    Battlebus said:

    Days like this you realise how overstaffed the BBC is. Instead of insight and comment from people in the know, you have them interviewing each other while spouting unevidenced comments.

    Just waiting from Trump to announce his support for his long time friend Andy Burnham, and then the BBC interviewing each other about what it means.

    They have 24 hours of news tv to fill with no news.

    Unless it’s immensely profitable form overseas sales (which it can’t be) I would be closing that channel down to save money
    They should just relegate the Starmer stuff to a short slot in the hourly bulletin. It's a bit like "the Queen is still dead, despite the fact that the usual stuff is still happening in the UK and around the world, we'll continue to talk bollocks about it despite the fact nothing new has happened for 36 hours"
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,571
    Meanwhile in Russia...

    Looks like a serious missile strike has happened in the city of Voronezh, Russia. Huge plumes of smoke rise in the city.

    Voronezh’s VZPP-S semiconductor plant was attacked. The facility produces transistor matrices used in Kh-101 cruise missiles, Iskander-K missiles and Pantsir-S1 systems. VZPP-S is known as key Russian microelectronics suppliers tied to military, aerospace and defense electronics production.

    More footage from Voronezh. The VZPP-S semiconductor plant was hit on at least two separate places and is now burning.


    https://t.me/noel_reports/48160
  • eekeek Posts: 34,149

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    This will be my son’s fifth prime minister since he was born - and he’s 6.

    https://x.com/jessicaelgot/status/2068964817344266383

    Mine has got their second for their second birthday…

    https://x.com/PGourtsoyannis/status/2068980810091266392

    It'll be my daughter's fifth and she only turned 4 a couple of months ago.
    Burham will be the sixth PM since July 2016 so six PMs in 10 years.

    Prior to that, we only had six PMs in 40 years.
    The point of Brexit was to take back control.

    I think all it’s showing is how ungovernable this country is with expectations well beyond reality
    One of the more plausible arguments for Brexit was the one that said it stopped British politicians slopey-sholdering things that go wrong onto Europe. One point of sharp accountability. If the Westminster government doesn't deliver what the people want, the Westminster government is responsible and they're out.

    What that argument doesn't account for is when the people want things that are impossible. Or impossible without absurd cost or consequences. Or get overtaken by events. Or when the people want multiple things that contradict.

    That problem was there before 2016, but it's been worse... much worse... since.
    Before 2016 - there was someone else that could and would take the blame for impossible demands - but we’ve left the organization that governments could claim made the impossible impossible.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,414

    He blubbed.

    The utter hatred of Starmer for his eulogy to his father on Father's Day in X yesterday is worth a look. The entire nation loathe him.

    It would have been very surprising if it hadn't been emotional and on a human level one can sympathise

    The next question is will he sit on the backbenches like Sunak or leave politics?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,632
    Another article in the Atlantic, it's coming thick and fast from them right now:

    The world now faces something new and frightening: a psychotic state. The administration is consistently detached from reality; the normal policy process we have seen in past administrations is nonexistent in this one. No one around the president even hints that anything he does is inappropriate, unpopular, or unwise. His Cabinet meetings have become exercises in self-abasement, with one member after another obsequiously groveling, each trying to outdo the next in their adoration. Trump, left on his own without adult supervision, has lurched from blunder to catastrophe.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,989
    Andy_JS said:

    With the Tories, nominations would probably open tomorrow, and the new PM would be in place by next week (assuming only one candidate).

    Truss to Sunak was five days.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,527
    Sandpit said:

    Thinking about all the living ex-PMs, and I can't say that I think any of them went before their time.

    I would say that Britain is going through PMs extraordinarily quickly because the people chosen to become PM simply aren't that good at it.

    Will Burnham be better? Will he be good enough to remain PM after the next election?

    I would guess not. But he has a better chance than Starmer did.

    We’re about to have 10 living PMs. Must have been a while since that was the case.

    Major
    Blair
    Brown
    Cameron
    May
    Johnson
    Truss
    Sunak
    Starmer
    Just imagine the confusion if we had to call them all Prime Minister like the US retired Presidents are called Mr President.
  • eekeek Posts: 34,149

    He blubbed.

    The utter hatred of Starmer for his eulogy to his father on Father's Day in X yesterday is worth a look. The entire nation loathe him.

    It would have been very surprising if it hadn't been emotional and on a human level one can sympathise

    The next question is will he sit on the backbenches like Sunak or leave politics?
    While it would be fun to see Rishi and Starmer do a Statler and Waldorf tribute act, I can see SKS quietly retiring
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,466

    Thanks @TheScreamingEagles for the tip on Starmer exit date Q2 2026, which I locked in for a £30 profit yesterday.

    Starmer's exit date will be Q3 so it was wise to cash out.
    Yep. I had a brief window yesterday with profit but flunked it...
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,313

    He blubbed.

    The utter hatred of Starmer for his eulogy to his father on Father's Day in X yesterday is worth a look. The entire nation loathe him.

    It would have been very surprising if it hadn't been emotional and on a human level one can sympathise
    It's just more evidence of his incompetence. He should have worked out he was crap and planned a departure in an orderly manner.

    (I'm toying with the idea he has been planning this all aling to get Burnham into the job. In which case, why did he block Burnham from standing at Gorton? Maybe he didn't think it was an obvious win, or maybe it was actually an NEC decision he didn't have the political capital to steer in the other direction)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,773
    algarkirk said:

    If I understood Starmer's speech correctly, he agreed to be a senior shadow cabinet member of a corrupt and morally bankrupt opposition, and in the following six years as leader then PM sorted first the party and then as PM the country so that country and party are on the best possible track; in the process of performing this six year miracle he has lost the confidence of his own MPs to the extent that they have more or less no belief that they can keep their seats with him as leader.

    His account makes no sense.

    "I was much better than people think I was"

    Obviously those people don't think that, hence his departure. Starmer doesn't have to agree.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,775
    SKS achievements

    Means tested the winter fuel allowance
    Wasted Billions on Ukraine
    Appointed the friend of a notorious paedophile
    Lied about the above appointment
    Achieved the worst LE results for LAB ever.
    Said Israel had the right to cut off food and water in Gaza
    Enabled Genocide
    Managed to dismantle the broad church
    Suspended MPs who voted for abolition of 2 child benefit cap
    Aped Reform rhetoric on immigration despite nobody wanting Reform Lite
    Preferred a Reform PM to a Socialist
    Enabled the selection of Right Wing factionalist over the wishes of local parties
    Cried on his departure fantasy island speech

    Get him to the Hague ASAP
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,423

    When does Burnham’s long march to London begin? Can we expect tanks?

    Rebellious Catholic northerners usually u-turn at Derby.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,733
    Andy_JS said:

    With the Tories, nominations would probably open tomorrow, and the new PM would be in place by next week (assuming only one candidate).

    Except with the Tories there'd be an incessant tour of the country lasting three months talking to small audiences of the over 60's.
    Before choosing the least suitable option.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,463
    edited 9:42AM
    Steve Bray stood for parliament in Cynon Valley in 2019 (for the LDs). He got 949 votes and lost his deposit.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,169

    He blubbed.

    The utter hatred of Starmer for his eulogy to his father on Father's Day in X yesterday is worth a look. The entire nation loathe him.

    It would have been very surprising if it hadn't been emotional and on a human level one can sympathise

    The next question is will he sit on the backbenches like Sunak or leave politics?
    It demonstrated a weakness which was also shown by his capitulation to Trump and Reeves

    Trump wasn't surprised at the failure.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/keir-starmer-donald-trump-iran-volodymyr-zelensky-jd-vance-b3000264.html
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,766
    Congratulations to Starmer on claiming the first big kill of his premiership!

    Oh…
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,167

    F##king Steve Bray again. I thought they passed a law to take his equipment off him for his stupid stunts.

    Great case of nominative determinism though.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,551
    edited 9:46AM
    Eabhal said:

    When does Burnham’s long march to London begin? Can we expect tanks?

    Rebellious Catholic northerners usually u-turn at Derby.
    It's a revived Pilgrimage of Grace. Wiki sums it up thus, from just 490 years ago.

    The Pilgrimage of Grace was an English Catholic popular revolt beginning in Yorkshire in October 1536 before spreading to other parts of Northern England, including Cumberland, Northumberland, Durham and north Lancashire. The protests occurred under the leadership of Robert Aske. The "most serious of all Tudor period rebellions", the Pilgrimage was a revolt against King Henry VIII's break with the Catholic Church, the dissolution of the lesser monasteries, and the policies of the King's chief minister, Thomas Cromwell Keir Starmer, as well as other specific political, social, and economic grievances.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,028
    It can take many leaders years to grow into the statesman you became in just two years.

    European and Ukrainian security is stronger because of you.

    Thank you, dear Keir.


    https://x.com/vonderleyen/status/2068979542153204011
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,203
    Borrowing costs rise and sterling falls as the City expects a Burnham government to shift the country further left

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/06/22/pound-uk-bonds-borrowing-costs-starmer-burnham-ftse-100/
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,313
    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile in Russia...

    Looks like a serious missile strike has happened in the city of Voronezh, Russia. Huge plumes of smoke rise in the city.

    Voronezh’s VZPP-S semiconductor plant was attacked. The facility produces transistor matrices used in Kh-101 cruise missiles, Iskander-K missiles and Pantsir-S1 systems. VZPP-S is known as key Russian microelectronics suppliers tied to military, aerospace and defense electronics production.

    More footage from Voronezh. The VZPP-S semiconductor plant was hit on at least two separate places and is now burning.


    https://t.me/noel_reports/48160

    Amid everything else that’s been going on in the past few weeks, Russia now being properly on fire every day is the one thing that’s not really getting enough media attention.

    Ukranians are more optimistic now than at any time in the last four years.
    BBC is still running an Iran War half hour slot. They could easily do the same with Ukraine. And their "neutrality" means that when they do report on the war they tend to report "Russia says..." without pointing out that it is likely to be a lie
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,590
    IanB2 said:

    Another article in the Atlantic, it's coming thick and fast from them right now:

    The world now faces something new and frightening: a psychotic state. The administration is consistently detached from reality; the normal policy process we have seen in past administrations is nonexistent in this one. No one around the president even hints that anything he does is inappropriate, unpopular, or unwise. His Cabinet meetings have become exercises in self-abasement, with one member after another obsequiously groveling, each trying to outdo the next in their adoration. Trump, left on his own without adult supervision, has lurched from blunder to catastrophe.

    Late stage Stalin / Henry VIII / Tiberias.

    I wonder if anyone would imitate Naevius Macro alongside Vance.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,167

    Nominations open July 9th.

    As I presciently pointed out yesterday, Starmer wants to be the PM who welcomes the England World Cup winning team to No 10.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,775
    Sandpit said:

    Thinking about all the living ex-PMs, and I can't say that I think any of them went before their time.

    I would say that Britain is going through PMs extraordinarily quickly because the people chosen to become PM simply aren't that good at it.

    Will Burnham be better? Will he be good enough to remain PM after the next election?

    I would guess not. But he has a better chance than Starmer did.

    We’re about to have 10 living PMs. Must have been a while since that was the case.

    Major
    Blair
    Brown
    Cameron
    May
    Johnson
    Truss
    Sunak
    Starmer
    I voted for 2 of those

    Blair once
    Brown once
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,423
    edited 9:48AM

    He blubbed.

    The utter hatred of Starmer for his eulogy to his father on Father's Day in X yesterday is worth a look. The entire nation loathe him.

    X is only representative of Russian bots and deranged and angry divorced men. Starmer’s dreadful ratings are a result of the complete disillusionment of the left - nothing more.

    Since the terrorist attack on Friday it’s been quite astonishing the levels of foreign interference in our local social media - I’ve counted over 30 instances of direct incitement of terrorism and, having done extensive online sleuthing, only one of them actually lives in Leith/Edinburgh.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,989
    AnneJGP said:

    Sandpit said:

    Thinking about all the living ex-PMs, and I can't say that I think any of them went before their time.

    I would say that Britain is going through PMs extraordinarily quickly because the people chosen to become PM simply aren't that good at it.

    Will Burnham be better? Will he be good enough to remain PM after the next election?

    I would guess not. But he has a better chance than Starmer did.

    We’re about to have 10 living PMs. Must have been a while since that was the case.

    Major
    Blair
    Brown
    Cameron
    May
    Johnson
    Truss
    Sunak
    Starmer
    Just imagine the confusion if we had to call them all Prime Minister like the US retired Presidents are called Mr President.
    True! There’s only five living Presidents though, which makes it a little easier.
    (Clinton, Bush Jr, Obama, Trump, Biden)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,463
    It's easy to forget that Starmer probably came within 300 votes of standing down as Labour leader in 2021 at the Batley & Spen by-election. If Labour had lost that, following on from losing Hartlepool, his position would have become untenable.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,414
    HYUFD said:

    Borrowing costs rise and sterling falls as the City expects a Burnham government to shift the country further left

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/06/22/pound-uk-bonds-borrowing-costs-starmer-burnham-ftse-100/

    In that article it says the rise is from 4.84% to 4.85% so rather over egging it
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,990
    I'm reading the Rise and Fall of Ancient Egypt. At the end of the Ramesside era there were countless short reigns, increasing political instability, a death spiral of woe, loss of confidence in authority, destruction of the 'social contract', economic weakness.

    Ahem.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 5,346
    I see the Met Office has just upped its heat warning for Wednesday and Thursday to red. They're forecasting 39C here in the midlands.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,571
    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile in Russia...

    Looks like a serious missile strike has happened in the city of Voronezh, Russia. Huge plumes of smoke rise in the city.

    Voronezh’s VZPP-S semiconductor plant was attacked. The facility produces transistor matrices used in Kh-101 cruise missiles, Iskander-K missiles and Pantsir-S1 systems. VZPP-S is known as key Russian microelectronics suppliers tied to military, aerospace and defense electronics production.

    More footage from Voronezh. The VZPP-S semiconductor plant was hit on at least two separate places and is now burning.


    https://t.me/noel_reports/48160

    Amid everything else that’s been going on in the past few weeks, Russia now being properly on fire every day is the one thing that’s not really getting enough media attention.

    Ukranians are more optimistic now than at any time in the last four years.
    If Ukraine can successfully disrupt Russian ballistic missile production then it means life will be more comfortable for their civilians next winter - a major boost for Ukrainian morale.

    It would also make the failure to ramp up production of Patriot interceptors less consequential.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,990

    I see the Met Office has just upped its heat warning for Wednesday and Thursday to red. They're forecasting 39C here in the midlands.

    Tomorrow, the midnight 'feels like' is forecast to be 28C. That'll be fun.

    On an entirely unrelated note, does anyone have a portable aircon unit and, if so, is it worth getting?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,167

    I'm reading the Rise and Fall of Ancient Egypt. At the end of the Ramesside era there were countless short reigns, increasing political instability, a death spiral of woe, loss of confidence in authority, destruction of the 'social contract', economic weakness.

    Ahem.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjyWIRyWUK8
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,208

    I see the Met Office has just upped its heat warning for Wednesday and Thursday to red. They're forecasting 39C here in the midlands.

    The heat is..... ON.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,611
    Foss said:

    Congratulations to Starmer on claiming the first big kill of his premiership!

    Oh…

    Quite a scalp for Kemi.

    Now, if she can take Farage's too...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,989

    I see the Met Office has just upped its heat warning for Wednesday and Thursday to red. They're forecasting 39C here in the midlands.

    Ouch! B&Q are going to be sold out of air conditioners this week.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,172

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    This will be my son’s fifth prime minister since he was born - and he’s 6.

    https://x.com/jessicaelgot/status/2068964817344266383

    Mine has got their second for their second birthday…

    https://x.com/PGourtsoyannis/status/2068980810091266392

    It'll be my daughter's fifth and she only turned 4 a couple of months ago.
    Burham will be the sixth PM since July 2016 so six PMs in 10 years.

    Prior to that, we only had six PMs in 40 years.
    The point of Brexit was to take back control.

    I think all it’s showing is how ungovernable this country is with expectations well beyond reality
    One of the more plausible arguments for Brexit was the one that said it stopped British politicians slopey-sholdering things that go wrong onto Europe. One point of sharp accountability. If the Westminster government doesn't deliver what the people want, the Westminster government is responsible and they're out.

    What that argument doesn't account for is when the people want things that are impossible. Or impossible without absurd cost or consequences. Or get overtaken by events. Or when the people want multiple things that contradict.

    That problem was there before 2016, but it's been worse... much worse... since.
    One might say that in that case Brexit has worked exactly as it should. Now we can all see the Emperor (PM) has no clothes, hence the reason we get through them so quickly.

    We need a completely different type of PM, one who is not simply managing on behalf of the EU but is actually leading the country and taking responsibility. I don't think any of them have really grasped this concept yet.

    We need someone who is capable of management as referred to in that very good article linked to yesterday. Either that or they need an Osborne to do the management for them. Since Cameron PMs have simply responded to events with very little clarity as to how to shape them and how the various constituent parts of government might facilitate that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,028
    edited 9:54AM

    I see the Met Office has just upped its heat warning for Wednesday and Thursday to red. They're forecasting 39C here in the midlands.

    Tomorrow, the midnight 'feels like' is forecast to be 28C. That'll be fun.

    On an entirely unrelated note, does anyone have a portable aircon unit and, if so, is it worth getting?
    Yes, but make sure you've got somewhere you put the tail pipe out of a window.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,571

    I see the Met Office has just upped its heat warning for Wednesday and Thursday to red. They're forecasting 39C here in the midlands.

    How well set up are schools to cope with that sort of heat?
    Or hospitals?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,551
    FF43 said:

    algarkirk said:

    If I understood Starmer's speech correctly, he agreed to be a senior shadow cabinet member of a corrupt and morally bankrupt opposition, and in the following six years as leader then PM sorted first the party and then as PM the country so that country and party are on the best possible track; in the process of performing this six year miracle he has lost the confidence of his own MPs to the extent that they have more or less no belief that they can keep their seats with him as leader.

    His account makes no sense.

    "I was much better than people think I was"

    Obviously those people don't think that, hence his departure. Starmer doesn't have to agree.
    I can comprehend a PM getting everything right - as he told us - but still losing the confidence of a slightly dim public. But to get everything miraculously right, and your own MPs, who mostly owe their careers to your electoral genius, have no confidence in you and call on you to go makes no sense.

    Personally, the moment the PM lost me morally was when he fictitiously blamed a civil servant, who got sacked, for the PMs decision over Mandelson.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,773

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    This will be my son’s fifth prime minister since he was born - and he’s 6.

    https://x.com/jessicaelgot/status/2068964817344266383

    Mine has got their second for their second birthday…

    https://x.com/PGourtsoyannis/status/2068980810091266392

    It'll be my daughter's fifth and she only turned 4 a couple of months ago.
    Burham will be the sixth PM since July 2016 so six PMs in 10 years.

    Prior to that, we only had six PMs in 40 years.
    The point of Brexit was to take back control.

    I think all it’s showing is how ungovernable this country is with expectations well beyond reality
    One of the more plausible arguments for Brexit was the one that said it stopped British politicians slopey-sholdering things that go wrong onto Europe. One point of sharp accountability. If the Westminster government doesn't deliver what the people want, the Westminster government is responsible and they're out.

    What that argument doesn't account for is when the people want things that are impossible. Or impossible without absurd cost or consequences. Or get overtaken by events. Or when the people want multiple things that contradict.

    That problem was there before 2016, but it's been worse... much worse... since.
    One might say that in that case Brexit has worked exactly as it should. Now we can all see the Emperor (PM) has no clothes, hence the reason we get through them so quickly.

    We need a completely different type of PM, one who is not simply managing on behalf of the EU but is actually leading the country and taking responsibility. I don't think any of them have really grasped this concept yet.

    That was the gist of Michael Gove's article in the Spectator defending Brexit against all evidence (that he ignored obviously). Brexit allowed the Conservative government to be utterly dire. Made no sense to me but I am not the target readership I guess
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,611
    eek said:

    He blubbed.

    The utter hatred of Starmer for his eulogy to his father on Father's Day in X yesterday is worth a look. The entire nation loathe him.

    It would have been very surprising if it hadn't been emotional and on a human level one can sympathise

    The next question is will he sit on the backbenches like Sunak or leave politics?
    While it would be fun to see Rishi and Starmer do a Statler and Waldorf tribute act, I can see SKS quietly retiring
    The EU will find him a nice sinecure.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 10,156

    Self-serving delaying nominations to the 9th in order to guarantee his anniversary, but expected that.

    Also NATO summit in Ankara is July 7/8th.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 5,346

    I see the Met Office has just upped its heat warning for Wednesday and Thursday to red. They're forecasting 39C here in the midlands.

    Tomorrow, the midnight 'feels like' is forecast to be 28C. That'll be fun.

    On an entirely unrelated note, does anyone have a portable aircon unit and, if so, is it worth getting?
    Yes, but make sure you've got somewhere you put the tail pipe out of a window.
    Also, get a twin hose one if you can. They are much more efficient because you're not sucking in hot air from outside to replace the exhaust air being pumped out.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,463

    I see the Met Office has just upped its heat warning for Wednesday and Thursday to red. They're forecasting 39C here in the midlands.

    Yet the BBC says 35 degrees in B'ham as the peak temperature. That's a significant difference.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,172
    algarkirk said:

    FF43 said:

    algarkirk said:

    If I understood Starmer's speech correctly, he agreed to be a senior shadow cabinet member of a corrupt and morally bankrupt opposition, and in the following six years as leader then PM sorted first the party and then as PM the country so that country and party are on the best possible track; in the process of performing this six year miracle he has lost the confidence of his own MPs to the extent that they have more or less no belief that they can keep their seats with him as leader.

    His account makes no sense.

    "I was much better than people think I was"

    Obviously those people don't think that, hence his departure. Starmer doesn't have to agree.
    I can comprehend a PM getting everything right - as he told us - but still losing the confidence of a slightly dim public. But to get everything miraculously right, and your own MPs, who mostly owe their careers to your electoral genius, have no confidence in you and call on you to go makes no sense.

    Personally, the moment the PM lost me morally was when he fictitiously blamed a civil servant, who got sacked, for the PMs decision over Mandelson.

    Yes, the Olly Robbins episode was shameful. He really badly let himself down there. I was never much of a fan but he was better than that normally.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,989

    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile in Russia...

    Looks like a serious missile strike has happened in the city of Voronezh, Russia. Huge plumes of smoke rise in the city.

    Voronezh’s VZPP-S semiconductor plant was attacked. The facility produces transistor matrices used in Kh-101 cruise missiles, Iskander-K missiles and Pantsir-S1 systems. VZPP-S is known as key Russian microelectronics suppliers tied to military, aerospace and defense electronics production.

    More footage from Voronezh. The VZPP-S semiconductor plant was hit on at least two separate places and is now burning.


    https://t.me/noel_reports/48160

    Amid everything else that’s been going on in the past few weeks, Russia now being properly on fire every day is the one thing that’s not really getting enough media attention.

    Ukranians are more optimistic now than at any time in the last four years.
    If Ukraine can successfully disrupt Russian ballistic missile production then it means life will be more comfortable for their civilians next winter - a major boost for Ukrainian morale.

    It would also make the failure to ramp up production of Patriot interceptors less consequential.
    Yes, Ukraine are working on their own ballistic interceptors, as between their conflict and the Gulf conflict there’s not an awful lot of Patriots left, and the lead time on them is two years.

    They’re also getting the Flamingos to fly more than 2,000km, and say that 3,000km is coming, which makes most of Russia a target. They have to use their own weapons to hit ‘91 border Russia, as allies don’t give permission for the use of imported weapons.

    A summer of disruption to Moscow (airports all closed again this morning, visible drone attacks on the city) is really bringing the war home to ordinary Russians.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,596

    eek said:

    He blubbed.

    The utter hatred of Starmer for his eulogy to his father on Father's Day in X yesterday is worth a look. The entire nation loathe him.

    It would have been very surprising if it hadn't been emotional and on a human level one can sympathise

    The next question is will he sit on the backbenches like Sunak or leave politics?
    While it would be fun to see Rishi and Starmer do a Statler and Waldorf tribute act, I can see SKS quietly retiring
    The EU will find him a nice sinecure.
    Unlikely given he is not a citizen of an EU member state.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,611

    I see the Met Office has just upped its heat warning for Wednesday and Thursday to red. They're forecasting 39C here in the midlands.

    40 degrees in Mecca

    39 degrees in Mecca bingo....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,611

    eek said:

    He blubbed.

    The utter hatred of Starmer for his eulogy to his father on Father's Day in X yesterday is worth a look. The entire nation loathe him.

    It would have been very surprising if it hadn't been emotional and on a human level one can sympathise

    The next question is will he sit on the backbenches like Sunak or leave politics?
    While it would be fun to see Rishi and Starmer do a Statler and Waldorf tribute act, I can see SKS quietly retiring
    The EU will find him a nice sinecure.
    Unlikely given he is not a citizen of an EU member state.
    It will be related to delivering Rejoin....
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