Speaking of top comedians, Jenrick on R4 atm. Ok, not top.
Never forget this odious man wanted to stop innocent children having a little Disney on the walls in the waiting room at a migration centre.
Because he was thinking about the 24 year old 'children' claiming to be 15. And there is a point about the process being serious. I don't think we are looking at kinder transport situations or the evacuation children in the war.
But fine, if you want to let that one thing feed your hate. I'd rather go for the corruption re housing...
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
Havering isn't really London though, is it. It's Essex and tbf, Reform campaigned on that basis.
You’re right, it is Essex. I lived there most of my life, still think of it as home, and wouldn’t call myself a Londoner.
Just wait until the Havering oldies find out they've lost their freedom passes, if they ever get moved to Essex.
I doubt it, they'll save much more on council tax than they use the tube which is where the real value of the freedom pass lies.
The right wing echo chamber in full effect- whatever the rights and wrongs, I don't think the Telegraph journalists truly have their finger on the pulse of the Labour party.
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
Havering isn't really London though, is it. It's Essex and tbf, Reform campaigned on that basis.
You’re right, it is Essex. I lived there most of my life, still think of it as home, and wouldn’t call myself a Londoner.
Most of London isn't London. It's mostly been stolen from Middlesex (where I am from), Surrey, Essex and Kent.
There's an old marker at the top of the hill here demanding the boundary between Surrey and Kent... we live in Zone 2 Inner London, 15 minutes from Victoria station. It is London.
Demarking not demanding... ignorant spell checker!
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
..Here at Havering, counting has been going on for 10 hours overnight and tempers are fraying. Reform UK has already got enough councillors to take control of its first London borough, although that's not official yet. As the Havering Residents Association chair Gillian Ford holds onto her seat, she is heckled by a Reform candidate, who shouts loudly "where is the humility?" He is hastily ushered out of the room but the explosion of emotion shows just how hard-fought this election has been...
Yes, these overnight counts are no joke. Most of the candidates and activists have been awake for nearly 24 hours and running on adrenaline and coffee.
It's a ludicrous way of doing things.
We like it because we are impatient and enjoy the staying up all night picking at the results. But I am tired now. We're like kids who won't go to bed on Christmas Eve. Honestly, would we be any less happy if we counted during the day and started the declarations around tea time on Friday, giving us a whole weekend to wallow in stats? Friday counts would save political nerds from themselves.
Me. The thrill of election night is a big part of British politics.
Going to vote one day and having a change of Government the next, due to the counting overnight, is also quite inspirational regardless of who you vote for.
Well yes, emotionally yes, I agree with you. But this is one of these things where "I really like x" needlessly trumps "actually I would like y no less". Honestly, I am an old stick-in-the-mud for whom almost all change is bad. I love election nights. But rationally I know I would love election teatimes no less. Staying up past midnight is for young people.
I believe some of the counts are expected to drag on into Saturday. One of the advantages of an overnight count is that there's an incentive to finish the count as quickly as possible. I'm Ireland, where counts are in the day, they can sometimes drag on into a third day.
Now partly that's because it's STV, and when you have a 5-member constituency with more than 15 candidates there is a lot of counting to do. But partly it's because the resources aren't put in to get the count completed within eight hours. Although, people mostly know the results by the first lunchtime because of the mystical powers of the tallymen.
If HM opposition cannot gain seats when a government is this unpopular what chance do they have? They’ve been largely eclipsed.
At least an unpopular government has some cards to play. Nor sure what cards HM opposition have when other opposition parties are more popular .
I think your first statement ignores the fact that said opposition was in power for 14 years and has just been turfed out.
Johnathan is just attempting to shine the light elsewhere after Labour's destruction. It's all over for them, they just can't come to terms with being a one term government after 14 years of waiting.
Nah , Labour are in the shit this morning just only ever so slightly less in the shit than the Tories because they still have levers to pull. The Tories only strategy is to wait and hope.
Nice. The final words of The Count of Monte Cristo “ “Until the day when God will deign to reveal the future to man, all human wisdom is contained in these two words,—‘Wait and hope.’”
Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt. But they shouldn't rush it.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Cargo bikes for kids are generally a sign of well off, middle or upper class people. They tend to be expensive and work best when you live close to good schools.
Driving a "Chelsea Tractor" on the school run s seen as a bit chavy
Aren’t the cargo bikes like £5k? My car cost me less than that.
The absolute cheapest new Range Rover is about £42k.
My second hand Volkswagen Polo was £12k. £5k is nothing in the grand scheme of things.
My brand new Suzuki Swift set me back less than £13k just a couple of years ago. You can get second hand vehicles for considerably less than that.
£5k for most families is a hell of a lot of money.
Especially if you already have/need a vehicle then £5k for an additional form of transport is a luxury many can't afford.
A lot of families in London wont have a car in addition to a “cargo bike”. I don’t dispute that £5k is a hell of a lot of money but let’s not pretend it’s the height of luxury. Farage’s pals hand him £5m like it’s nothing.
By the way, the list price for a 2024 Suzuki Swift is over £19k.
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
Havering isn't really London though, is it. It's Essex and tbf, Reform campaigned on that basis.
You’re right, it is Essex. I lived there most of my life, still think of it as home, and wouldn’t call myself a Londoner.
Most of London isn't London. It's mostly been stolen from Middlesex (where I am from), Surrey, Essex and Kent.
There's an old marker at the top of the hill here demanding the boundary between Surrey and Kent... we live in Zone 2 Inner London, 15 minutes from Victoria station. It is London.
Demarking not demanding... ignorant spell checker!
Does Middlesex even exist anymore?
No, the Supreme Court ruled that there are only men and women.
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
Havering isn't really London though, is it. It's Essex and tbf, Reform campaigned on that basis.
You’re right, it is Essex. I lived there most of my life, still think of it as home, and wouldn’t call myself a Londoner.
The original Herbert Commission recommended an even larger area for the newly formed Greater London Council - taking in Chigwell as well as various parts of Surrey and Middlesex that were eventually left outside. Both Chigwell and Romford petitioned for exclusion from the new council; Chigwell was granted but Romford was refused. The Tories were in office nationally from launch of the Commission thru implementation.
Reform have been declining since october last year. I suspect this local election victory is Pyrrhic. The next three years going into the GE in 2029, there will be non-stop scandal, mismanagement, CV revelations. Many reform voters seem to think Reform is a welfare party but they aren't. They are the party of cuts, cuts and more budget cuts. They are the party of thinking a flag in a lamp post or a st georges roundabout will turn your life around. These voters want material changes, but have voted in a party that is almost wholly about symbolism and fluffy namby pamby stuff like identity.
This is what strikes me about reform: none of their policy proposals or ideological points solve any of the problems they actually raise.
1) they want stable and low energy costs: Oil is the opposite of that. North sea electricity costs 10% of gas and denmark doesn't drone attack its neighbours
2) They want fewer refugees: Well supporting bombing and aggressive foreign policy in the middle east displaces people. Israel has just dispaced a million people in Lebanon while reform cheered. How many of those will be crossing the next year?
3) They want to take care of our own first: Well, privatising the NHS will not solve that - it will make it worse.
4) they want to solve the cost of living: their trade policies drive up inflation like crazy.
Seriously, I think this reform vote we saw today is at least as soft as Labour's in the last GE, if not more. Reform does well campaigning but will SUUUUUUUUCK at actual governance - the sustained, planning and implementation of rational goals that benefit the population. Worse yet, if they actually get into nr 10, the country will proceed directly to a liz truss style melt down.
We live in terrifying times with such a fickle electorate.
It could well be at close of play in England that all parties are secretly disappointed to some extent.
And at the same time heartened. Reform established as the main party of the right. Greens as a serious player on the left. The Cons still very much in the game. Incremental progress for the LDs. Worst fears not transpiring for Labour.
Main takeout: It's 5 party politics now and that's official.
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
Havering isn't really London though, is it. It's Essex and tbf, Reform campaigned on that basis.
You’re right, it is Essex. I lived there most of my life, still think of it as home, and wouldn’t call myself a Londoner.
Most of London isn't London. It's mostly been stolen from Middlesex (where I am from), Surrey, Essex and Kent.
There's an old marker at the top of the hill here demanding the boundary between Surrey and Kent... we live in Zone 2 Inner London, 15 minutes from Victoria station. It is London.
Demarking not demanding... ignorant spell checker!
Does Middlesex even exist anymore?
It exists. It just doesn't have any administrative status.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Cargo bikes for kids are generally a sign of well off, middle or upper class people. They tend to be expensive and work best when you live close to good schools.
Driving a "Chelsea Tractor" on the school run s seen as a bit chavy
Aren’t the cargo bikes like £5k? My car cost me less than that.
The absolute cheapest new Range Rover is about £42k.
My second hand Volkswagen Polo was £12k. £5k is nothing in the grand scheme of things.
My brand new Suzuki Swift set me back less than £13k just a couple of years ago. You can get second hand vehicles for considerably less than that.
£5k for most families is a hell of a lot of money.
Especially if you already have/need a vehicle then £5k for an additional form of transport is a luxury many can't afford.
A lot of families in London wont have a car in addition to a “cargo bike”. I don’t dispute that £5k is a hell of a lot of money but let’s not pretend it’s the height of luxury. Farage’s pals hand him £5m like it’s nothing.
By the way, the list price for a 2024 Suzuki Swift is over £19k.
PB is so out of touch
People getting angry about other people taking their kids to school on a bike is very 2026.
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
What the fuck do you expect him to do? A bit of token Iran bombing?
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Cargo bikes for kids are generally a sign of well off, middle or upper class people. They tend to be expensive and work best when you live close to good schools.
Driving a "Chelsea Tractor" on the school run s seen as a bit chavy
Aren’t the cargo bikes like £5k? My car cost me less than that.
New, sure. But plenty around second hand these days as parents pass them on once their kids grow out of them.
On topic: Oxford has remained NOC - I expect Labour to maintain minority control. Had a rather depressing chat with the local Green candidate who was all in favour of housebuilding but was voting to prevent local landowners building any houses because they were the wrong kind of houses.
Kind of summed up the Greens for me tbh.
The final scores on Oxford City Council, combining tonight’s 24 elections with the 24 from 2024, are: 🌹 Labour 20 💚 Green 13 🔶 LibDem 9 🟪 IOA 4 ◻️ Ind 2 This gives the Greens and LibDems a chance to run the council in coalition if they choose.
An observation: I know a lot of people who will be doing counts today. They are public sector workers, typically young, typically middle class. On the basis of my conversations with these archetypes, they objectively know that Reform exists in a vague Nigel-Farage-is-the-bogeyman way, but have never met a Reform voter, and don't fully accept that, except at the margins, real people are voting for them. Typically, despite working in a council, they aren't actually that politically engaged. It's going to be an odd experience for many of them piling up all these votes.
Seriously?
Yes, a lot of people who do the counting are local council staff but by no means all. Sometimes bank staff are called in because they can count quickly and students are asked to help move boxes.
As to the usual cliched, stereotyped nonsense about public sector workers,. it's incredible that anyone actually thinks that way.
I worked in local Government - public sector workers are no more or less politically engaged than anyone else - indeed,the most "right wing" people I ever encountered were council workers who recognised the inherent flaws in the system.
I work in the public sector. I have never met an openly right-wing person in the public sector.
I note the Conservatives have taken Westminster much as expected and have held Bexley perhaps with more ease than some imagined.
What we are seeing (from a Conservative and LD perspective) is both parties retreating to areas of strength and fortifying those in terms of local council seats. I suspect that will mean it will be as hard for the Conservatives to make gains from the Lib Dems at the next GE as it will for the LDs to make gains from the Conservatives.
There are, however, growing areas where neither party is relevant.
With almost all results in, the Tory vote in Bexley is now 37% - down from 51% last time. Reform is at 32%, from nowhere, and Labour on 19% down from 44%, with the Greens picking up 7%.
That the Tories have 29 seats (for 37%) to Reform's 7 (for 32%) is down to the voting system.
Arguably it's also down to Reform being politically naive and over confident and thinking they can win everywhere rather than targetting specific Wards.
My impression is that the Reform campaign relied heavily upon national mailshots from Farage, presumably funded by some of the big donations Reform is getting nationally, and the beyond that it was entirely up to individual candidates whether they made any effort in their own ward. I don't sense there's an effective campaiging organisation in between Reform HQ and individual wards - at constituency or council level - of the sort that the established parties will have.
It will be interesting to see whether Reform manages to build effective local organisations, and whether enough of their members are up for all the grunt admin and committee work on wet winter evenings that it will take to build and maintain this?
If HM opposition cannot gain seats when a government is this unpopular what chance do they have? They’ve been largely eclipsed.
At least an unpopular government has some cards to play. Nor sure what cards HM opposition have when other opposition parties are more popular .
I think your first statement ignores the fact that said opposition was in power for 14 years and has just been turfed out.
Johnathan is just attempting to shine the light elsewhere after Labour's destruction. It's all over for them, they just can't come to terms with being a one term government after 14 years of waiting.
Nah , Labour are in the shit this morning just only ever so slightly less in the shit than the Tories because they still have levers to pull. The Tories only strategy is to wait and hope.
Nice. The final words of The Count of Monte Cristo “ “Until the day when God will deign to reveal the future to man, all human wisdom is contained in these two words,—‘Wait and hope.’”
It's no wonder Leon is so bitter against the world, living slap bang in the middle of Camden surrounded by woke lefties; maybe it would be better for his mental health if he relocated to Basildon and lived out the rest of his days among his fellow intellectuals?
OK that’s it. I’ve had enough of your bitter jibes. I don’t live “slap bang in the middle of Camden”. Geographically that would put me somewhere around Queen’s Crescent and make me a single mum Ketamine dealer
I live where, as Pevsner almost put it, “the streets broaden and the Georgian terraces curve, into the golden, leafy light of Primrose Hill”
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
..Here at Havering, counting has been going on for 10 hours overnight and tempers are fraying. Reform UK has already got enough councillors to take control of its first London borough, although that's not official yet. As the Havering Residents Association chair Gillian Ford holds onto her seat, she is heckled by a Reform candidate, who shouts loudly "where is the humility?" He is hastily ushered out of the room but the explosion of emotion shows just how hard-fought this election has been...
Yes, these overnight counts are no joke. Most of the candidates and activists have been awake for nearly 24 hours and running on adrenaline and coffee.
It's a ludicrous way of doing things.
We like it because we are impatient and enjoy the staying up all night picking at the results. But I am tired now. We're like kids who won't go to bed on Christmas Eve. Honestly, would we be any less happy if we counted during the day and started the declarations around tea time on Friday, giving us a whole weekend to wallow in stats? Friday counts would save political nerds from themselves.
Some countries manage to get the count done in hours. The Hungarians a fews weeks back for example, though their polls close earlier and on a Sunday.
Some countries are so efficient that they manage to get it done before election day.....
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
Havering isn't really London though, is it. It's Essex and tbf, Reform campaigned on that basis.
You’re right, it is Essex. I lived there most of my life, still think of it as home, and wouldn’t call myself a Londoner.
Most of London isn't London. It's mostly been stolen from Middlesex (where I am from), Surrey, Essex and Kent.
There's an old marker at the top of the hill here demanding the boundary between Surrey and Kent... we live in Zone 2 Inner London, 15 minutes from Victoria station. It is London.
Demarking not demanding... ignorant spell checker!
Ignorant me too. Had only heard of demarcating until your post...
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
Havering isn't really London though, is it. It's Essex and tbf, Reform campaigned on that basis.
You’re right, it is Essex. I lived there most of my life, still think of it as home, and wouldn’t call myself a Londoner.
Most of London isn't London. It's mostly been stolen from Middlesex (where I am from), Surrey, Essex and Kent.
There's an old marker at the top of the hill here demanding the boundary between Surrey and Kent... we live in Zone 2 Inner London, 15 minutes from Victoria station. It is London.
Demarking not demanding... ignorant spell checker!
Does Middlesex even exist anymore?
It exists. It just doesn't have any administrative status.
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
..Here at Havering, counting has been going on for 10 hours overnight and tempers are fraying. Reform UK has already got enough councillors to take control of its first London borough, although that's not official yet. As the Havering Residents Association chair Gillian Ford holds onto her seat, she is heckled by a Reform candidate, who shouts loudly "where is the humility?" He is hastily ushered out of the room but the explosion of emotion shows just how hard-fought this election has been...
Yes, these overnight counts are no joke. Most of the candidates and activists have been awake for nearly 24 hours and running on adrenaline and coffee.
It's a ludicrous way of doing things.
We like it because we are impatient and enjoy the staying up all night picking at the results. But I am tired now. We're like kids who won't go to bed on Christmas Eve. Honestly, would we be any less happy if we counted during the day and started the declarations around tea time on Friday, giving us a whole weekend to wallow in stats? Friday counts would save political nerds from themselves.
I think GE should be counted immediately but anything else can wait. The change (or not) of the Government is important enough to get it done. And I love staying up watching the results. But for locals its more complex.
They should. Starmer's not the problem. He's just a slightly better dressed Jenrick. The whole ethos of Labour is unrecognisable. They have barely more compassion than your average Tory. Fortunately Zack came along at the 11th hour and reminded them what they're here for.
They need a fresh start but there's a Hell of a lot of cleaning out the stables before they start putting names to their ministerial cars
Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt. But they shouldn't rush it.
IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him
Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
What the fuck do you expect him to do? A bit of token Iran bombing?
A token aircraft carrier group in the region might have been a good idea, but it appears the UK Navy can’t field more than a single frigate at the moment.
It could well be at close of play in England that all parties are secretly disappointed to some extent.
And at the same time heartened. Reform established as the main party of the right. Greens as a serious player on the left. The Cons still very much in the game. Incremental progress for the LDs. Worst fears not transpiring for Labour.
Main takeout: It's 5 party politics now and that's official.
Yes, that's the real answer as to why tonight could be worse for the Tories than Labour. Labour has taken the bigger hit in terms of lost voters and seats, but for the Tories, there's real evidence that they're being supplanted by Reform, whereas for Labour neither the LibDems or Greens have made (pending later results) that much progress beyond their existing strongholds.
It's no wonder Leon is so bitter against the world, living slap bang in the middle of Camden surrounded by woke lefties; maybe it would be better for his mental health if he relocated to Basildon and lived out the rest of his days among his fellow intellectuals?
OK that’s it. I’ve had enough of your bitter jibes. I don’t live “slap bang in the middle of Camden”. Geographically that would put me somewhere around Queen’s Crescent and make me a single mum Ketamine dealer
I live where, as Pevsner almost put it, “the streets broaden and the Georgian terraces curve, into the golden, leafy light of Primrose Hill”
Chalk Farm is only wannabe Primrose Hill... A bit like Bayswater isn't Notting Hill.
in my 89th year, for only the third time in my life I have voted for a winning candidate! And I've voted every time I could!
Does that say something about a) my longevity, b) my choice of candidate or c) where I've chosen to live?
I managed to get into my 60s before ever voting for a winning candidate (although I had been an agent for winning candidates), but now it is the norm. How times change.
Now I come to think about it, I don't think I've ever voted for a winning candidate at any level. I've moved around a bit, but everywhere I've lived as an adult has always been Labour at every level at every election I've been there for.
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
What the fuck do you expect him to do? A bit of token Iran bombing?
A token aircraft carrier group in the region might have been a good idea, but it appears the UK Navy can’t field more than a single frigate at the moment.
How are the parties doing vs expectations? My forecast based on declarations. Numbers will shift significantly as afternoon results come in:
Reform +1,419 vs consensus +1,625 - slightly underperforming Labour -1,231 vs consensus -1,590 - losing badly, but less than feared Conservatives -547 vs consensus -652 - holding up a little better than expected Green +685 vs consensus +588 - outperforming LD +203 vs consensus +186 - on track
Yes, feels like the pattern is Reform killing it in the Red Wall but doing less well in the middle class parts of the south and still struggling in London
So far they seem to have hoovered up the Johnson 2019 Red Wall vote but they haven’t made much progress in the more liberal seats.
Doesn’t really imply a majority to me but maybe with a split vote they come through the middle.
Remains as it has done for some time. Reform will struggle to win an election outright. Though they’d likely do well enough to be largest party.
The question on the left/centre is how easily Labour can try and win back those voters for another go, so as to build a coalition that can defeat that. Right now, you’d like them to be doing much better in red wall seats for them to have that chance. But we still have a very uncertain outlook.
If you think as I do that Labour is in its current hole primarily because of the hatred of Sir Keir (although I am sure Labour could find somebody worse), then if Reform aren’t walking the map across the entirety of the country, it surely just confirms Labour should dump Sir Keir as soon as possible.
No - I think it’s much more complicated than just disliking SKS. He is a drag on his party - I agree with that. But the problems don’t fix themselves automatically on the change of leader, nor do I think they are as simple as people disliking one man. They still have serious questions around lack of direction, policies, who they represent, how they will enact meaningful reform etc. Those things might be improved by a leadership change, but they’re not a given.
They don’t fix themselves but people will be prepared to listen again. Sir Keir won’t be listened to. He’s finished.
I don’t like Burnham particularly but I think he’s got something to say. Same with Streeting.
It may not last - but it seems obvious to me that Labour should roll the dice. And I wasn’t saying that a few months ago.
Labour will change leader before the next GE, but that is about 3 years away, there is no mad rush. They need to get the best candidate in place 12-18 months ahead of the GE.
I believe that Labour are better placed than the Tories for 2029. A change of leader will give them a significant boost and the Green vote will crumble far more quickly than the Reform vote, I think that has already started. Also Labour will be positioned as the clear anti-Farage party in far more seats than any other party.
The Tories need the Reform vote to crumble to around 10% and there is still little sign of that happening and I don't see there is much they can do to make it happen. A change of leader wouldn't achieve much (if anything at all)
It could well be at close of play in England that all parties are secretly disappointed to some extent.
And at the same time heartened. Reform established as the main party of the right. Greens as a serious player on the left. The Cons still very much in the game. Incremental progress for the LDs. Worst fears not transpiring for Labour.
Main takeout: It's 5 party politics now and that's official.
Reform are not established as you put it. Let's see what happens at the GE....
Hampshire finished Con 27 LD 26 Ref 20 Ind 2 RA 1 Grn 1 Lab 1
So a Con LD accomodation or a Con Ref one looks the only options.
A drubbing for the Tories but a 'better' one than most of last years county drubbings as they just about managed to hang on as largest party
The Portmouth News, carrying a story based on county-specific polling and analysis done very recently by Britain Elects, Open Council Data and Democracy Club, predicted that Hampshire CC would pan out as Reform 31, Tories 26, LibDems 19.
So compared to expectations, Reform has fallen quite some way short, and the LibDems have over-achieved.
That gives me some hope that the island can avoid the peril of being lumbered with a Reform-majority council.
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
What the fuck do you expect him to do? A bit of token Iran bombing?
A token aircraft carrier group in the region might have been a good idea, but it appears the UK Navy can’t field more than a single frigate at the moment.
What would be the point of that - they sit there doing nothing costing an absolute fortune or they have to get involved in active hostilities to justify it also costing a fortune and creating even more problems down the line.
We have plenty of airbases to use to cover the region. Our Navy should solely be concentrating on the North Sea and North Atlantic.
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
What the fuck do you expect him to do? A bit of token Iran bombing?
A token aircraft carrier group in the region might have been a good idea, but it appears the UK Navy can’t field more than a single frigate at the moment.
What would be the point of that - they sit there doing nothing costing an absolute fortune or they have to get involved in active hostilities to justify it also costing a fortune and creating even more problems down the line.
We have plenty of airbases to use to cover the region. Our Navy should solely be concentrating on the North Sea and North Atlantic.
Or at least the English channel so that these shadow ships from Russia don't come through it every day with impunity.
Reform have been declining since october last year. I suspect this local election victory is Pyrrhic. The next three years going into the GE in 2029, there will be non-stop scandal, mismanagement, CV revelations. Many reform voters seem to think Reform is a welfare party but they aren't. They are the party of cuts, cuts and more budget cuts. They are the party of thinking a flag in a lamp post or a st georges roundabout will turn your life around. These voters want material changes, but have voted in a party that is almost wholly about symbolism and fluffy namby pamby stuff like identity.
This is what strikes me about reform: none of their policy proposals or ideological points solve any of the problems they actually raise.
1) they want stable and low energy costs: Oil is the opposite of that. North sea electricity costs 10% of gas and denmark doesn't drone attack its neighbours
2) They want fewer refugees: Well supporting bombing and aggressive foreign policy in the middle east displaces people. Israel has just dispaced a million people in Lebanon while reform cheered. How many of those will be crossing the next year?
3) They want to take care of our own first: Well, privatising the NHS will not solve that - it will make it worse.
4) they want to solve the cost of living: their trade policies drive up inflation like crazy.
Seriously, I think this reform vote we saw today is at least as soft as Labour's in the last GE, if not more. Reform does well campaigning but will SUUUUUUUUCK at actual governance - the sustained, planning and implementation of rational goals that benefit the population. Worse yet, if they actually get into nr 10, the country will proceed directly to a liz truss style melt down.
We live in terrifying times with such a fickle electorate.
What a load of piffling, moronic, libsplaining dogshit
Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt. But they shouldn't rush it.
They may not have the choice of timetable.
I do remain of the view that if Streeting really does want it (and he does very little to hide that) there will likely be no better time to strike than now. Rayner still has the HMRC issue and Burnham can’t get into Parliament quickly enough. A narrow window is open for him, if he has the numbers to really press a claim. If he can’t strike now, the chances of a Burnham replacement in say 12-18 months increase substantially and he will have to settle for less.
An observation: I know a lot of people who will be doing counts today. They are public sector workers, typically young, typically middle class. On the basis of my conversations with these archetypes, they objectively know that Reform exists in a vague Nigel-Farage-is-the-bogeyman way, but have never met a Reform voter, and don't fully accept that, except at the margins, real people are voting for them. Typically, despite working in a council, they aren't actually that politically engaged. It's going to be an odd experience for many of them piling up all these votes.
Seriously?
Yes, a lot of people who do the counting are local council staff but by no means all. Sometimes bank staff are called in because they can count quickly and students are asked to help move boxes.
As to the usual cliched, stereotyped nonsense about public sector workers,. it's incredible that anyone actually thinks that way.
I worked in local Government - public sector workers are no more or less politically engaged than anyone else - indeed,the most "right wing" people I ever encountered were council workers who recognised the inherent flaws in the system.
I work in the public sector. I have never met an openly right-wing person in the public sector.
I work at Uni - I'd say there are probably a few right wingers here, but they are definitely NOT open about it.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Cargo bikes for kids are generally a sign of well off, middle or upper class people. They tend to be expensive and work best when you live close to good schools.
Driving a "Chelsea Tractor" on the school run s seen as a bit chavy
Aren’t the cargo bikes like £5k? My car cost me less than that.
The absolute cheapest new Range Rover is about £42k.
My second hand Volkswagen Polo was £12k. £5k is nothing in the grand scheme of things.
My brand new Suzuki Swift set me back less than £13k just a couple of years ago. You can get second hand vehicles for considerably less than that.
£5k for most families is a hell of a lot of money.
Especially if you already have/need a vehicle then £5k for an additional form of transport is a luxury many can't afford.
A car?!! Aren't new Ferrari's like £200k!?!
A 296GTB which is the one you want is about 250k. Don't go mad with the options. 12Cilindri is 340k and 849 is 400k.
They always used to be "cheap" because Ferrari constrained supply and therefore they had (Scuderia) red hot residuals. Those days are long gone though and they don't hold their value although nothing like the comedy depreciation you get on a McLaren.
Might get an F430 if I can find a RHD Black/Crema/Manual.
It's no wonder Leon is so bitter against the world, living slap bang in the middle of Camden surrounded by woke lefties; maybe it would be better for his mental health if he relocated to Basildon and lived out the rest of his days among his fellow intellectuals?
OK that’s it. I’ve had enough of your bitter jibes. I don’t live “slap bang in the middle of Camden”. Geographically that would put me somewhere around Queen’s Crescent and make me a single mum Ketamine dealer
I live where, as Pevsner almost put it, “the streets broaden and the Georgian terraces curve, into the golden, leafy light of Primrose Hill”
Chalk Farm is only wannabe Primrose Hill... A bit like Bayswater isn't Notting Hill.
Er, I don’t live in Chalk Farm. I can literally see The Regent’s Park from my floor-to-ceiling, Grade 2 listed 1830s Georgian sash windows. Complete with the original glass, remarkably
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
What the fuck do you expect him to do? A bit of token Iran bombing?
A token aircraft carrier group in the region might have been a good idea, but it appears the UK Navy can’t field more than a single frigate at the moment.
What would be the point of that - they sit there doing nothing costing an absolute fortune or they have to get involved in active hostilities to justify it also costing a fortune and creating even more problems down the line.
We have plenty of airbases to use to cover the region. Our Navy should solely be concentrating on the North Sea and North Atlantic.
There might even be naughty people in the region who may engineer an attack on whichever RN aircraft is the least disfunctional to further embroil unChurchillian Starmer in Operation Epic FUBAR,
An observation: I know a lot of people who will be doing counts today. They are public sector workers, typically young, typically middle class. On the basis of my conversations with these archetypes, they objectively know that Reform exists in a vague Nigel-Farage-is-the-bogeyman way, but have never met a Reform voter, and don't fully accept that, except at the margins, real people are voting for them. Typically, despite working in a council, they aren't actually that politically engaged. It's going to be an odd experience for many of them piling up all these votes.
Seriously?
Yes, a lot of people who do the counting are local council staff but by no means all. Sometimes bank staff are called in because they can count quickly and students are asked to help move boxes.
As to the usual cliched, stereotyped nonsense about public sector workers,. it's incredible that anyone actually thinks that way.
I worked in local Government - public sector workers are no more or less politically engaged than anyone else - indeed,the most "right wing" people I ever encountered were council workers who recognised the inherent flaws in the system.
I work in the public sector. I have never met an openly right-wing person in the public sector.
I work at Uni - I'd say there are probably a few right wingers here, but they are definitely NOT open about it.
I work in the NHS. There are quite a few open right wingers in my department, from porters to senior medical staff.
Reform have been declining since october last year. I suspect this local election victory is Pyrrhic. The next three years going into the GE in 2029, there will be non-stop scandal, mismanagement, CV revelations. Many reform voters seem to think Reform is a welfare party but they aren't. They are the party of cuts, cuts and more budget cuts. They are the party of thinking a flag in a lamp post or a st georges roundabout will turn your life around. These voters want material changes, but have voted in a party that is almost wholly about symbolism and fluffy namby pamby stuff like identity.
This is what strikes me about reform: none of their policy proposals or ideological points solve any of the problems they actually raise.
1) they want stable and low energy costs: Oil is the opposite of that. North sea electricity costs 10% of gas and denmark doesn't drone attack its neighbours
2) They want fewer refugees: Well supporting bombing and aggressive foreign policy in the middle east displaces people. Israel has just dispaced a million people in Lebanon while reform cheered. How many of those will be crossing the next year?
3) They want to take care of our own first: Well, privatising the NHS will not solve that - it will make it worse.
4) they want to solve the cost of living: their trade policies drive up inflation like crazy.
Seriously, I think this reform vote we saw today is at least as soft as Labour's in the last GE, if not more. Reform does well campaigning but will SUUUUUUUUCK at actual governance - the sustained, planning and implementation of rational goals that benefit the population. Worse yet, if they actually get into nr 10, the country will proceed directly to a liz truss style melt down.
We live in terrifying times with such a fickle electorate.
What a load of piffling, moronic, libsplaining dogshit
Good morning, gentlemen
Why when you write about the latest food you’ve eaten is that interesting but something somebody posts that you don’t like is “bullshit”?
Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt. But they shouldn't rush it.
IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him
Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.
I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer. Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
What the fuck do you expect him to do? A bit of token Iran bombing?
A token aircraft carrier group in the region might have been a good idea, but it appears the UK Navy can’t field more than a single frigate at the moment.
How would that change anything? What are they going to do that the Lincoln and Bush can't do already?
It's no wonder Leon is so bitter against the world, living slap bang in the middle of Camden surrounded by woke lefties; maybe it would be better for his mental health if he relocated to Basildon and lived out the rest of his days among his fellow intellectuals?
OK that’s it. I’ve had enough of your bitter jibes. I don’t live “slap bang in the middle of Camden”. Geographically that would put me somewhere around Queen’s Crescent and make me a single mum Ketamine dealer
I live where, as Pevsner almost put it, “the streets broaden and the Georgian terraces curve, into the golden, leafy light of Primrose Hill”
I drive down the road that your bedsit is in, now and again, and it feels more like litter-strewn traffic-addled central Camden Town to me, if towards the edge of it, and nothing like leafy Primrose Hill, even if the latter is a relatively short walk away
An observation: I know a lot of people who will be doing counts today. They are public sector workers, typically young, typically middle class. On the basis of my conversations with these archetypes, they objectively know that Reform exists in a vague Nigel-Farage-is-the-bogeyman way, but have never met a Reform voter, and don't fully accept that, except at the margins, real people are voting for them. Typically, despite working in a council, they aren't actually that politically engaged. It's going to be an odd experience for many of them piling up all these votes.
Seriously?
Yes, a lot of people who do the counting are local council staff but by no means all. Sometimes bank staff are called in because they can count quickly and students are asked to help move boxes.
As to the usual cliched, stereotyped nonsense about public sector workers,. it's incredible that anyone actually thinks that way.
I worked in local Government - public sector workers are no more or less politically engaged than anyone else - indeed,the most "right wing" people I ever encountered were council workers who recognised the inherent flaws in the system.
I work in the public sector. I have never met an openly right-wing person in the public sector.
I work at Uni - I'd say there are probably a few right wingers here, but they are definitely NOT open about it.
I work in the NHS. There are quite a few open right wingers in my department, from porters to senior medical staff.
Surely sectoral determinism means doctors are socialist during their morning NHS outpatients clinics and raging Thatcherites in their afternoon private practice?
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
What the fuck do you expect him to do? A bit of token Iran bombing?
A token aircraft carrier group in the region might have been a good idea, but it appears the UK Navy can’t field more than a single frigate at the moment.
There are two separate issues here. Are the UK's military resources massively underfunded and under developed? To my mind clearly yes.
And if they were not? If they were, for example, at the level of the early 1980s, would we then be wanting to send anything down to the Middle East? To my mind, no. Even if we could send forces in support of the American adventure we still should not.
An observation: I know a lot of people who will be doing counts today. They are public sector workers, typically young, typically middle class. On the basis of my conversations with these archetypes, they objectively know that Reform exists in a vague Nigel-Farage-is-the-bogeyman way, but have never met a Reform voter, and don't fully accept that, except at the margins, real people are voting for them. Typically, despite working in a council, they aren't actually that politically engaged. It's going to be an odd experience for many of them piling up all these votes.
Seriously?
Yes, a lot of people who do the counting are local council staff but by no means all. Sometimes bank staff are called in because they can count quickly and students are asked to help move boxes.
As to the usual cliched, stereotyped nonsense about public sector workers,. it's incredible that anyone actually thinks that way.
I worked in local Government - public sector workers are no more or less politically engaged than anyone else - indeed,the most "right wing" people I ever encountered were council workers who recognised the inherent flaws in the system.
I work in the public sector. I have never met an openly right-wing person in the public sector.
I work at Uni - I'd say there are probably a few right wingers here, but they are definitely NOT open about it.
When i worked in universities i think there were definitely colleagues who were quietly centrist dad types who i bet voted Blair, Cameron then Lib Dem.post brexit. On the other hand, Mrs U time working in academia surrounded by rampant communists, who lambasted her for taking some paid consulting and speaking gigs and bet Jezza no where near left wing enough.for them.
Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt. But they shouldn't rush it.
IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him
Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.
It could well be at close of play in England that all parties are secretly disappointed to some extent.
And at the same time heartened. Reform established as the main party of the right. Greens as a serious player on the left. The Cons still very much in the game. Incremental progress for the LDs. Worst fears not transpiring for Labour.
Main takeout: It's 5 party politics now and that's official.
Yes, that's the real answer as to why tonight could be worse for the Tories than Labour. Labour has taken the bigger hit in terms of lost voters and seats, but for the Tories, there's real evidence that they're being supplanted by Reform, whereas for Labour neither the LibDems or Greens have made (pending later results) that much progress beyond their existing strongholds.
And Labour have the new leader card to play at some point. The Cons are stuck in the opposite of a sweet spot on that - Kemi is doing well enough to ensure she stays to the election but not well enough to come even close to winning it.
BBC projecting the Greens on an NEV of 20% compared to Labour's 21% - if that's on the mark, the Greens aren't getting much by way of seat hall to show for it.
Reform have been declining since october last year. I suspect this local election victory is Pyrrhic. The next three years going into the GE in 2029, there will be non-stop scandal, mismanagement, CV revelations. Many reform voters seem to think Reform is a welfare party but they aren't. They are the party of cuts, cuts and more budget cuts. They are the party of thinking a flag in a lamp post or a st georges roundabout will turn your life around. These voters want material changes, but have voted in a party that is almost wholly about symbolism and fluffy namby pamby stuff like identity.
This is what strikes me about reform: none of their policy proposals or ideological points solve any of the problems they actually raise.
1) they want stable and low energy costs: Oil is the opposite of that. North sea electricity costs 10% of gas and denmark doesn't drone attack its neighbours
2) They want fewer refugees: Well supporting bombing and aggressive foreign policy in the middle east displaces people. Israel has just dispaced a million people in Lebanon while reform cheered. How many of those will be crossing the next year?
3) They want to take care of our own first: Well, privatising the NHS will not solve that - it will make it worse.
4) they want to solve the cost of living: their trade policies drive up inflation like crazy.
Seriously, I think this reform vote we saw today is at least as soft as Labour's in the last GE, if not more. Reform does well campaigning but will SUUUUUUUUCK at actual governance - the sustained, planning and implementation of rational goals that benefit the population. Worse yet, if they actually get into nr 10, the country will proceed directly to a liz truss style melt down.
We live in terrifying times with such a fickle electorate.
What a load of piffling, moronic, libsplaining dogshit
Good morning, gentlemen
Why when you write about the latest food you’ve eaten is that interesting but something somebody posts that you don’t like is “bullshit”?
Because the analysis is a mix of hopecasting nonsense and low-IQ wankery
It's no wonder Leon is so bitter against the world, living slap bang in the middle of Camden surrounded by woke lefties; maybe it would be better for his mental health if he relocated to Basildon and lived out the rest of his days among his fellow intellectuals?
OK that’s it. I’ve had enough of your bitter jibes. I don’t live “slap bang in the middle of Camden”. Geographically that would put me somewhere around Queen’s Crescent and make me a single mum Ketamine dealer
I live where, as Pevsner almost put it, “the streets broaden and the Georgian terraces curve, into the golden, leafy light of Primrose Hill”
Chalk Farm is only wannabe Primrose Hill... A bit like Bayswater isn't Notting Hill.
Er, I don’t live in Chalk Farm. I can literally see The Regent’s Park from my floor-to-ceiling, Grade 2 listed 1830s Georgian sash windows. Complete with the original glass, remarkably
Now now, we all understand that there is nothing wrong with being aspirational. Estate Agents, as we know, can be a little broad brush... and the park can be seen from many angles.
Still at least Chalk Farm isn't Camden Town... or, God forbid, the naffness of St John's Wood..
Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt. But they shouldn't rush it.
IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him
Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.
I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer. Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.
Why is it, I wonder.
I, too, would like an answer to this question. The level of dislike for Starmer seems entirely out of proportion with anything he or his party have actually done.
Maybe it’s because he’s so bland that people project things onto him? If you’re seen as standing for nothing in particular then you end up with what’s said about you by your political enemies being the things that come to mind when people think of you. As party leader you’re inevitably held responsible for all the bad stuff & if you have no presence to counter that you end up being the Christmas tree on which everyone gets to hang their personal hates.
It's no wonder Leon is so bitter against the world, living slap bang in the middle of Camden surrounded by woke lefties; maybe it would be better for his mental health if he relocated to Basildon and lived out the rest of his days among his fellow intellectuals?
OK that’s it. I’ve had enough of your bitter jibes. I don’t live “slap bang in the middle of Camden”. Geographically that would put me somewhere around Queen’s Crescent and make me a single mum Ketamine dealer
I live where, as Pevsner almost put it, “the streets broaden and the Georgian terraces curve, into the golden, leafy light of Primrose Hill”
Chalk Farm is only wannabe Primrose Hill... A bit like Bayswater isn't Notting Hill.
Er, I don’t live in Chalk Farm. I can literally see The Regent’s Park from my floor-to-ceiling, Grade 2 listed 1830s Georgian sash windows. Complete with the original glass, remarkably
Now now, we all understand that there is nothing wrong with being aspirational. Estate Agents, as we know, can be a little broad brush... and the park can be seen from many angles.
Still at least Chalk Farm isn't Camden Town... or, God forbid, the naffness of St John's Wood..
I’d be quite happy to say I live in Chalk Farm. There are some exquisite streets there, and it’s the beginning of that lovely hill up to Hampstead
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Cargo bikes for kids are generally a sign of well off, middle or upper class people. They tend to be expensive and work best when you live close to good schools.
Driving a "Chelsea Tractor" on the school run s seen as a bit chavy
Aren’t the cargo bikes like £5k? My car cost me less than that.
The absolute cheapest new Range Rover is about £42k.
My second hand Volkswagen Polo was £12k. £5k is nothing in the grand scheme of things.
My brand new Suzuki Swift set me back less than £13k just a couple of years ago. You can get second hand vehicles for considerably less than that.
£5k for most families is a hell of a lot of money.
Especially if you already have/need a vehicle then £5k for an additional form of transport is a luxury many can't afford.
A lot of families in London wont have a car in addition to a “cargo bike”. I don’t dispute that £5k is a hell of a lot of money but let’s not pretend it’s the height of luxury. Farage’s pals hand him £5m like it’s nothing.
By the way, the list price for a 2024 Suzuki Swift is over £19k.
PB is so out of touch
People getting angry about other people taking their kids to school on a bike is very 2026.
No one’s getting angry, it’s just being discussed. 🙄
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
What the fuck do you expect him to do? A bit of token Iran bombing?
A token aircraft carrier group in the region might have been a good idea, but it appears the UK Navy can’t field more than a single frigate at the moment.
What would be the point of that - they sit there doing nothing costing an absolute fortune or they have to get involved in active hostilities to justify it also costing a fortune and creating even more problems down the line.
We have plenty of airbases to use to cover the region. Our Navy should solely be concentrating on the North Sea and North Atlantic.
Or at least the English channel so that these shadow ships from Russia don't come through it every day with impunity.
Well that’s defintely true.
A really smart UK government would have worked with the US to tie action in Iran to action in Ukraine.
The Tories have so far done okay but there’s a lot of councils coming up where they could suffer huge losses .
The joy of Friday counting in the majority of councils means we have much more fun to come in here !
Quite so. We are only about 30% of the way into this with big narrative twists almost certainly waiting for us
So far I’d have it like this
Reform: about as good as expected, they’ll be happy
Labour: about as bad as expected, they’ll be unhappy
Tories: slightly better than expected, but the expectations were grim, so they’ll be feeling “suicidal but chirpy”
Greens: definitely underperforming, compared to high expectations. Did Zak tup the mutt?
Lib Dems: no gives a fuck, not even them anymore
The Scottish and Welsh Parliaments will overshadow a lot of today's local council results.
Yes, exactly
Labour look very likely to lose Wales for the first time ever. That’s going to be traumatic and, worse, it seems likely they won’t even be the opposition. They could come third. Or even lower
It’s THAT kind of emotional shock which might trigger a move against Skyr
It could well be at close of play in England that all parties are secretly disappointed to some extent.
And at the same time heartened. Reform established as the main party of the right. Greens as a serious player on the left. The Cons still very much in the game. Incremental progress for the LDs. Worst fears not transpiring for Labour.
Main takeout: It's 5 party politics now and that's official.
Reform are not established as you put it. Let's see what happens at the GE....
It gives me no pleasure to say it but this is a big positive step for them. No longer just a newbie Farage vehicle topping the polls, now the leading party of the right embedded via real votes in local government across large parts of the country. They have captured most of that voter coalition that delivered Brexit and Johnson's 2019 election win. It's a strong position.
If you're following the Scottish election results, the timetable is: Friday 9am - count begins 1pm - First results 5pm - most results in, new government emerges Saturday PM - new first minister announced Sunday PM - first official duty, condemning 'disgraceful scenes' following Old Firm game
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
What the fuck do you expect him to do? A bit of token Iran bombing?
A token aircraft carrier group in the region might have been a good idea, but it appears the UK Navy can’t field more than a single frigate at the moment.
What would be the point of that - they sit there doing nothing costing an absolute fortune or they have to get involved in active hostilities to justify it also costing a fortune and creating even more problems down the line.
We have plenty of airbases to use to cover the region. Our Navy should solely be concentrating on the North Sea and North Atlantic.
Or at least the English channel so that these shadow ships from Russia don't come through it every day with impunity.
Well that’s defintely true.
A really smart UK government would have worked with the US to tie action in Iran to action in Ukraine.
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
What the fuck do you expect him to do? A bit of token Iran bombing?
A token aircraft carrier group in the region might have been a good idea, but it appears the UK Navy can’t field more than a single frigate at the moment.
How would that change anything? What are they going to do that the Lincoln and Bush can't do already?
Show some solidarity with those trying to sort the problem.
The Tories have so far done okay but there’s a lot of councils coming up where they could suffer huge losses .
The joy of Friday counting in the majority of councils means we have much more fun to come in here !
Quite so. We are only about 30% of the way into this with big narrative twists almost certainly waiting for us
So far I’d have it like this
Reform: about as good as expected, they’ll be happy
Labour: about as bad as expected, they’ll be unhappy
Tories: slightly better than expected, but the expectations were grim, so they’ll be feeling “suicidal but chirpy”
Greens: definitely underperforming, compared to high expectations. Did Zak tup the mutt?
Lib Dems: no one gives a fuck, not even them anymore
No, that's not right.
For Reform, it's not yet quite as good as expected (see Hampshire) - although that perception could change today and it's still a pretty good result for them overall, if with a 'turning votes into seats' problem due to lack of local organisation and campaigning (cf. Bexley)
For Labour, it's not going to be nearly as bad as expected in London, but likely pretty calamitous in the rest of the country. Wales and Scotland will also figure very heavily in the post-mortem for Labour, and it's too early to say.
For the Tories, too early to say. Broadly on par so far, I'd suggest. That they're being supplanted by Reform in many areas gives them a severe strategic problem.
LibDems are slightly over-performing, but with a few disappointments like Merton and Ealing, so again we'll just have to wait
The Greens are pulling in votes but not seats, and this coupled with Labour resilience in London may well mean they don't pull off the dramatic London victories that many were anticipating
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Cargo bikes for kids are generally a sign of well off, middle or upper class people. They tend to be expensive and work best when you live close to good schools.
Driving a "Chelsea Tractor" on the school run s seen as a bit chavy
Aren’t the cargo bikes like £5k? My car cost me less than that.
The absolute cheapest new Range Rover is about £42k.
My second hand Volkswagen Polo was £12k. £5k is nothing in the grand scheme of things.
My brand new Suzuki Swift set me back less than £13k just a couple of years ago. You can get second hand vehicles for considerably less than that.
£5k for most families is a hell of a lot of money.
Especially if you already have/need a vehicle then £5k for an additional form of transport is a luxury many can't afford.
A lot of families in London wont have a car in addition to a “cargo bike”. I don’t dispute that £5k is a hell of a lot of money but let’s not pretend it’s the height of luxury. Farage’s pals hand him £5m like it’s nothing.
By the way, the list price for a 2024 Suzuki Swift is over £19k.
PB is so out of touch
People getting angry about other people taking their kids to school on a bike is very 2026.
No one’s getting angry, it’s just being discussed. 🙄
Good. It's hard to get a sense of people's inner mental state but it seemed to me that folks were getting a bit more lathered up about the whole thing than was strictly necessary. Glad to hear everyone is okay.
Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt. But they shouldn't rush it.
Who would you go for as a (I think?) Labour person?
I've voted Labour a few times. I actually had a lot of time for Miliband, while accepting that he was too odd to win, but/so don't think it should be his time again. Burnham has underwhelmed in past leadership elections. Streeting is a good media performer, but I'm not convined the party would back him. Rayner I just don't see it somehow, bit too much baggage. Cooper - see Burnham but more so. Mahmood - see Streeting and she'd do more for Polanski and maybe the LDs than anyone.
So, I've basically ruled out all the obvious contenders, haven't I? What am I missing. I probably would vote Labour under Miliband, Burnham, Streeting or Cooper, if other parties' leaderships stayed the same. Possibly Rayner depending on the wider team and policies. But I'd probably vote Labour under Starmer too, if other party leaders stayed the same, so that's not really an endorsement. Changes in LD or possibly Tory leadership could tempt me away (for Tories it would have to be a One Nation type of platform and take the party with them).
It's like Labour have split. The ultra Zionists and all round selfish racist bastards have become 'Starmer's Labour.' 'Compassionate Labour' have become the new Greens. They'll never be able to coexist -at least not while the Starmer clique remain-but it's doubtful the Greens can do it on their own.
The Greens lost all 5 seats in Richmond upon Thames . The Lib Dem’s won all 54 seats .
We've found out what sort of voter the Greens are losing at the expense of their leftward move then - absolutely stonkingly loaded SW remainer Londoners.
Reform have been declining since october last year. I suspect this local election victory is Pyrrhic. The next three years going into the GE in 2029, there will be non-stop scandal, mismanagement, CV revelations. Many reform voters seem to think Reform is a welfare party but they aren't. They are the party of cuts, cuts and more budget cuts. They are the party of thinking a flag in a lamp post or a st georges roundabout will turn your life around. These voters want material changes, but have voted in a party that is almost wholly about symbolism and fluffy namby pamby stuff like identity.
This is what strikes me about reform: none of their policy proposals or ideological points solve any of the problems they actually raise.
1) they want stable and low energy costs: Oil is the opposite of that. North sea electricity costs 10% of gas and denmark doesn't drone attack its neighbours
2) They want fewer refugees: Well supporting bombing and aggressive foreign policy in the middle east displaces people. Israel has just dispaced a million people in Lebanon while reform cheered. How many of those will be crossing the next year?
3) They want to take care of our own first: Well, privatising the NHS will not solve that - it will make it worse.
4) they want to solve the cost of living: their trade policies drive up inflation like crazy.
Seriously, I think this reform vote we saw today is at least as soft as Labour's in the last GE, if not more. Reform does well campaigning but will SUUUUUUUUCK at actual governance - the sustained, planning and implementation of rational goals that benefit the population. Worse yet, if they actually get into nr 10, the country will proceed directly to a liz truss style melt down.
We live in terrifying times with such a fickle electorate.
What a load of piffling, moronic, libsplaining dogshit
Good morning, gentlemen
Why when you write about the latest food you’ve eaten is that interesting but something somebody posts that you don’t like is “bullshit”?
Because the analysis is a mix of hopecasting nonsense and low-IQ wankery
Calling a slump for Reform on PB is a bit like investment accounts on Twitter calling the next market crash.
They’ll be right eventually and dine out on the one correct call and ignore the hundreds of ones that crashed,
It could well be at close of play in England that all parties are secretly disappointed to some extent.
And at the same time heartened. Reform established as the main party of the right. Greens as a serious player on the left. The Cons still very much in the game. Incremental progress for the LDs. Worst fears not transpiring for Labour.
Main takeout: It's 5 party politics now and that's official.
Reform are not established as you put it. Let's see what happens at the GE....
It gives me no pleasure to say it but this is a big positive step for them. No longer just a newbie Farage vehicle topping the polls, now the leading party of the right embedded via real votes in local government across large parts of the country. They have captured most of that voter coalition that delivered Brexit and Johnson's 2019 election win. It's a strong position.
Commendable honesty, unlike some of your lefty cousins on here. You get it precisely right. Farage will be chuffed with this result. Maybe very chuffed. Reform are now the main right wing party across most of the country. Not in polls, in actual votes in actual elections
A failure to grasp this would be suboptimal for their opponents
BBC projecting the Greens on an NEV of 20% compared to Labour's 21% - if that's on the mark, the Greens aren't getting much by way of seat hall to show for it.
Just the Corbynite core vote, the swing voters certainly not going Green
Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt. But they shouldn't rush it.
IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him
Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.
I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer. Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.
Why is it, I wonder.
I, too, would like an answer to this question. The level of dislike for Starmer seems entirely out of proportion with anything he or his party have actually done.
Maybe it’s because he’s so bland that people project things onto him? If you’re seen as standing for nothing in particular then you end up with what’s said about you by your political enemies being the things that come to mind when people think of you. As party leader you’re inevitably held responsible for all the bad stuff & if you have no presence to counter that you end up being the Christmas tree on which everyone gets to hang their personal hates.
Thoughts?
There is a lot to unpick as to why Starmer is so disliked.
Some of it is being rather unlucky with timing - he comes at the end of a long line of leaders where people haven’t felt they’ve had the best interests of the country at heart and don’t feel they speak their language. The fact he is very bad at speaking like the average voter amplifies this sense of anger/disappointment.
He has a haughty, defensive attitude that looks evasive rather than open and approachable. This wasn’t quite as obvious when he was in opposition, because he didn’t have the scrutiny. It screams at you now he is PM.
And he simply cannot articulate a vision, or tell you anything he believes. His views have been inconsistent and ever-changing depending on which element he needs to emphasise that day.
Finally, some people just have a natural magnetism, way with words, character that makes people want to know them or trust them. Many people don’t have that. Starmer goes beyond that, in that he actually has the polar opposite of that.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Or a trailer.
Or (my photo of the day) something like this, a tandem tricycle. I have a friend in Derby who takes her kids everywhere within a few miles on one of these with e-assist - previously using various things like a child seat then a tagalong, but more recently one on the tandem, and another on their own cycle. They are very good for independence and agency in young people.
This is from the Wheels for Wellbeing pre-cleared free photo library.
We went in quite hard on the mobility aid consultation for things like this, as it had a built in assumption that disabled people could only possibly need a single passenger.
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
What the fuck do you expect him to do? A bit of token Iran bombing?
A token aircraft carrier group in the region might have been a good idea, but it appears the UK Navy can’t field more than a single frigate at the moment.
There are two separate issues here. Are the UK's military resources massively underfunded and under developed? To my mind clearly yes.
And if they were not? If they were, for example, at the level of the early 1980s, would we then be wanting to send anything down to the Middle East? To my mind, no. Even if we could send forces in support of the American adventure we still should not.
That’s fair comment, but when you’re actually in the theatre of operations a token British ship would make a difference politically.
It also feeds into Trump’s narrative of Europe being dependent on the US for military support.
Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt. But they shouldn't rush it.
IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him
Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.
I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer. Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.
Why is it, I wonder.
I, too, would like an answer to this question. The level of dislike for Starmer seems entirely out of proportion with anything he or his party have actually done.
Maybe it’s because he’s so bland that people project things onto him? If you’re seen as standing for nothing in particular then you end up with what’s said about you by your political enemies being the things that come to mind when people think of you. As party leader you’re inevitably held responsible for all the bad stuff & if you have no presence to counter that you end up being the Christmas tree on which everyone gets to hang their personal hates.
Thoughts?
I suspect it's because his personality appears to exemplify, in an more marked way, most of the failings that have left people disappointed and frustrated with the Labour government as a whole.
Are there signs that the Con/Ref vote is becoming more efficient?
eg in London, Ref doing nothing in Westminster, Wandsworth etc.
But Ref sweep the board in Havering.
OK, those examples are all London but it seems to be happening to an extent elsewhere too.
If so, less reason for any Con/Ref pact.
I don't think you're allowed to vote Reform and be a real Londoner. If you rent, Labour, if you own the property Tory. If you own the big terrace within a short cycle ride of Kew gardens, Lib Dem.
Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt. But they shouldn't rush it.
IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him
Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.
I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer. Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.
Why is it, I wonder.
I, too, would like an answer to this question. The level of dislike for Starmer seems entirely out of proportion with anything he or his party have actually done.
Maybe it’s because he’s so bland that people project things onto him? If you’re seen as standing for nothing in particular then you end up with what’s said about you by your political enemies being the things that come to mind when people think of you. As party leader you’re inevitably held responsible for all the bad stuff & if you have no presence to counter that you end up being the Christmas tree on which everyone gets to hang their personal hates.
Thoughts?
The left blame him because he was in the room when Corbyn shot himself in the foot.
The right blame him because he was in the room when Boris shot himself in the groin.
Everyone hates him because, like the rest of them, he doesn't have a working solution to our problems. And he's crap at politics, and has an annoying voice.
Worst of all, he's the least bad option right now.
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
What the fuck do you expect him to do? A bit of token Iran bombing?
A token aircraft carrier group in the region might have been a good idea, but it appears the UK Navy can’t field more than a single frigate at the moment.
How would that change anything? What are they going to do that the Lincoln and Bush can't do already?
Show some solidarity with those trying to sort the problem.
That they caused, whilst insulting us every step of the way. They can fuck right off.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Or a trailer.
Or (my photo of the day) something like this, a tandem tricycle. I have a friend in Derby who takes her kids everywhere within a few miles on one of these - previously using various things like a child seat then a tagalong, but more recently one on the tandem, and another on their own cycle.
This is from the Wheels for Wellbeing pre-cleared free photo library.
Off on a tangent, but is that helmet on the front guy serving any purpose at all, other than decoration. I guess if something fell directly from above it might help, but it's not going to do anything useful in a crash.
Comments
Now partly that's because it's STV, and when you have a 5-member constituency with more than 15 candidates there is a lot of counting to do. But partly it's because the resources aren't put in to get the count completed within eight hours. Although, people mostly know the results by the first lunchtime because of the mystical powers of the tallymen.
But they shouldn't rush it.
By the way, the list price for a 2024 Suzuki Swift is over £19k.
PB is so out of touch
I can just hear him delivering the old “a first class diggit do dottingham” line.
This is what strikes me about reform: none of their policy proposals or ideological points solve any of the problems they actually raise.
1) they want stable and low energy costs: Oil is the opposite of that. North sea electricity costs 10% of gas and denmark doesn't drone attack its neighbours
2) They want fewer refugees: Well supporting bombing and aggressive foreign policy in the middle east displaces people. Israel has just dispaced a million people in Lebanon while reform cheered. How many of those will be crossing the next year?
3) They want to take care of our own first: Well, privatising the NHS will not solve that - it will make it worse.
4) they want to solve the cost of living: their trade policies drive up inflation like crazy.
Seriously, I think this reform vote we saw today is at least as soft as Labour's in the last GE, if not more. Reform does well campaigning but will SUUUUUUUUCK at actual governance - the sustained, planning and implementation of rational goals that benefit the population. Worse yet, if they actually get into nr 10, the country will proceed directly to a liz truss style melt down.
We live in terrifying times with such a fickle electorate.
Main takeout: It's 5 party politics now and that's official.
🌹 Labour 20
💚 Green 13
🔶 LibDem 9
🟪 IOA 4
◻️ Ind 2
This gives the Greens and LibDems a chance to run the council in coalition if they choose.
Source: https://bsky.app/profile/oxfordclarion.bsky.social/post/3mlculwgukk2q
It will be interesting to see whether Reform manages to build effective local organisations, and whether enough of their members are up for all the grunt admin and committee work on wet winter evenings that it will take to build and maintain this?
Even if it's a load of bollocks.
https://x.com/flying_rodent/status/2052663243244552402?s=20
I live where, as Pevsner almost put it, “the streets broaden and the Georgian terraces curve, into the golden, leafy light of Primrose Hill”
Con 27
LD 26
Ref 20
Ind 2
RA 1
Grn 1
Lab 1
So a Con LD accomodation or a Con Ref one looks the only options.
A drubbing for the Tories but a 'better' one than most of last years county drubbings as they just about managed to hang on as largest party
They need a fresh start but there's a Hell of a lot of cleaning out the stables before they start putting names to their ministerial cars
Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.
https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/2052669872467808406?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
I believe that Labour are better placed than the Tories for 2029. A change of leader will give them a significant boost and the Green vote will crumble far more quickly than the Reform vote, I think that has already started. Also Labour will be positioned as the clear anti-Farage party in far more seats than any other party.
The Tories need the Reform vote to crumble to around 10% and there is still little sign of that happening and I don't see there is much they can do to make it happen. A change of leader wouldn't achieve much (if anything at all)
So compared to expectations, Reform has fallen quite some way short, and the LibDems have over-achieved.
That gives me some hope that the island can avoid the peril of being lumbered with a Reform-majority council.
We have plenty of airbases to use to cover the region. Our Navy should solely be concentrating on the North Sea and North Atlantic.
The joy of Friday counting in the majority of councils means we have much more fun to come in here !
Good morning, gentlemen
I do remain of the view that if Streeting really does want it (and he does very little to hide that) there will likely be no better time to strike than now. Rayner still has the HMRC issue and Burnham can’t get into Parliament quickly enough. A narrow window is open for him, if he has the numbers to really press a claim. If he can’t strike now, the chances of a Burnham replacement in say 12-18 months increase substantially and he will have to settle for less.
They always used to be "cheap" because Ferrari constrained supply and therefore they had (Scuderia) red hot residuals. Those days are long gone though and they don't hold their value although nothing like the comedy depreciation you get on a McLaren.
Might get an F430 if I can find a RHD Black/Crema/Manual.
Ref 28
Con 8
LD 3
Ind 2
RA 1
Grn 1
With 34 wards counting today. Ref need 11 of them to take the council
Patrick Maguire on the other hand is saying this cant go on.
Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.
Why is it, I wonder.
The elections in the UK yesterday are so far showing Two Englands with a gulf between them - and maybe by the end Four Britains.
A Disunited Kingdom.
In areas that voted heavily for Brexit, Reform got 41%. Everywhere else they got an average of 10%.
And if they were not? If they were, for example, at the level of the early 1980s, would we then be wanting to send anything down to the Middle East? To my mind, no. Even if we could send forces in support of the American adventure we still should not.
So far I’d have it like this
Reform: about as good as expected, they’ll be happy
Labour: about as bad as expected, they’ll be unhappy
Tories: slightly better than expected, but the expectations were grim, so they’ll be feeling “suicidal but chirpy”
Greens: definitely underperforming, compared to high expectations. Did Zak tup the mutt?
Lib Dems: no one gives a fuck, not even them anymore
Still at least Chalk Farm isn't Camden Town... or, God forbid, the naffness of St John's Wood..
Maybe it’s because he’s so bland that people project things onto him? If you’re seen as standing for nothing in particular then you end up with what’s said about you by your political enemies being the things that come to mind when people think of you. As party leader you’re inevitably held responsible for all the bad stuff & if you have no presence to counter that you end up being the Christmas tree on which everyone gets to hang their personal hates.
Thoughts?
I just don’t live there
A really smart UK government would have worked with the US to tie action in Iran to action in Ukraine.
Labour look very likely to lose Wales for the first time ever. That’s going to be traumatic and, worse, it seems likely they won’t even be the opposition. They could come third. Or even lower
It’s THAT kind of emotional shock which might trigger a move against Skyr
If you're following the Scottish election results, the timetable is:
Friday 9am - count begins
1pm - First results
5pm - most results in, new government emerges
Saturday PM - new first minister announced
Sunday PM - first official duty, condemning 'disgraceful scenes' following Old Firm game
For Reform, it's not yet quite as good as expected (see Hampshire) - although that perception could change today and it's still a pretty good result for them overall, if with a 'turning votes into seats' problem due to lack of local organisation and campaigning (cf. Bexley)
For Labour, it's not going to be nearly as bad as expected in London, but likely pretty calamitous in the rest of the country. Wales and Scotland will also figure very heavily in the post-mortem for Labour, and it's too early to say.
For the Tories, too early to say. Broadly on par so far, I'd suggest. That they're being supplanted by Reform in many areas gives them a severe strategic problem.
LibDems are slightly over-performing, but with a few disappointments like Merton and Ealing, so again we'll just have to wait
The Greens are pulling in votes but not seats, and this coupled with Labour resilience in London may well mean they don't pull off the dramatic London victories that many were anticipating
eg in London, Ref doing nothing in Westminster, Wandsworth etc.
But Ref sweep the board in Havering.
OK, those examples are all London but it seems to be happening to an extent elsewhere too.
If so, less reason for any Con/Ref pact.
I've voted Labour a few times. I actually had a lot of time for Miliband, while accepting that he was too odd to win, but/so don't think it should be his time again. Burnham has underwhelmed in past leadership elections. Streeting is a good media performer, but I'm not convined the party would back him. Rayner I just don't see it somehow, bit too much baggage. Cooper - see Burnham but more so. Mahmood - see Streeting and she'd do more for Polanski and maybe the LDs than anyone.
So, I've basically ruled out all the obvious contenders, haven't I? What am I missing. I probably would vote Labour under Miliband, Burnham, Streeting or Cooper, if other parties' leaderships stayed the same. Possibly Rayner depending on the wider team and policies. But I'd probably vote Labour under Starmer too, if other party leaders stayed the same, so that's not really an endorsement. Changes in LD or possibly Tory leadership could tempt me away (for Tories it would have to be a One Nation type of platform and take the party with them).
Was under 1.4 at 4am.
Substantial move.
They’ll be right eventually and dine out on the one correct call and ignore the hundreds of ones that crashed,
A failure to grasp this would be suboptimal for their opponents
Some of it is being rather unlucky with timing - he comes at the end of a long line of leaders where people haven’t felt they’ve had the best interests of the country at heart and don’t feel they speak their language. The fact he is very bad at speaking like the average voter amplifies this sense of anger/disappointment.
He has a haughty, defensive attitude that looks evasive rather than open and approachable. This wasn’t quite as obvious when he was in opposition, because he didn’t have the scrutiny. It screams at you now he is PM.
And he simply cannot articulate a vision, or tell you anything he believes. His views have been inconsistent and ever-changing depending on which element he needs to emphasise that day.
Finally, some people just have a natural magnetism, way with words, character that makes people want to know them or trust them. Many people don’t have that. Starmer goes beyond that, in that he actually has the polar opposite of that.
Or (my photo of the day) something like this, a tandem tricycle. I have a friend in Derby who takes her kids everywhere within a few miles on one of these with e-assist - previously using various things like a child seat then a tagalong, but more recently one on the tandem, and another on their own cycle. They are very good for independence and agency in young people.
This is from the Wheels for Wellbeing pre-cleared free photo library.
We went in quite hard on the mobility aid consultation for things like this, as it had a built in assumption that disabled people could only possibly need a single passenger.
It also feeds into Trump’s narrative of Europe being dependent on the US for military support.
Could be quite important in terms of party spin .
The right blame him because he was in the room when Boris shot himself in the groin.
Everyone hates him because, like the rest of them, he doesn't have a working solution to our problems. And he's crap at politics, and has an annoying voice.
Worst of all, he's the least bad option right now.
If Labour are second that’s some meagre but urgently needed wiggle room for Skyr. Third, or fourth?! Ouch