Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Very early days but John Curtice and Michael Thrasher both say Labour are so far performing less badly than expected
Curtice tells BBC: “Labour's rate of seat loss were to continue to the end of tomorrow, they could be looking at losses of just over 1200 seats, rather less than some anticipated”
Top expectations management from Labour over the last fortnight, making everyone expect a calamity so that now a mere disaster doesn't seem so bad.
Healey making clearly what is part of the planned response, so we will be hearing it all day and tomorrow: the King's speech next week will show Starmer means to get a grip and deliver for working people etc etc.
Damien's numbers don't add up. Greens +100 compared to expectations, Tories and Labour also outperforming, but Reform not underperforming enough to balance.
If HM opposition cannot gain seats when a government is this unpopular what chance do they have? They’ve been largely eclipsed.
At least an unpopular government has some cards to play. Nor sure what cards HM opposition have when other opposition parties are more popular .
I think your first statement ignores the fact that said opposition was in power for 14 years and has just been turfed out.
Wasn’t an issue for Labour in 2011 and the Tories in 1998.
2011 is a bad example, as it was the days of three party politics and two of them were in coalition; Labour benefitted from being the only party not in government that had any airtime.
This time, Reform and the Greens were coming off the back of a decent GE, so were obviously the NOTAs. The surprise for me is how the Lib Dem’s haven’t prospered, given an unpopular Labour govt and a wounded Tory party who’ve just been thrown out
So why did the Tories make net gains in 1998?
Because 1994 was so dire for them. That was the year I turned a Tory majority of 1,000 into a LibDem one of similar.
Reform takes Havering. Looks like the Tories are the main losers there, although the faux Reform Residents Association has also lost seats to the real thing.
Seems there is a council ward in Portsmouth called Charles Dickens.
Exeter has a ‘ Mincinglake and Whipton’.
Dickens was born in Portsmouth.
He described my hometown, Chelmsford, as "the dullest and most stupid spot on the face of the Earth". One of the best things he ever wrote, imho. The council should pop that on the signs rather than "birthplace of radio".
Someone said Starmer could become Foreign Secretary on the basis he likes meeting foreign leaders and travel.........
I think I'd sooner have Leon....
It's thanks to his forays into the job of foreign secretary that he's managed to get these worst election results on record. His decision making has been woeful. He's managed to persuade even loyalists like me that enough is enough.
Get back to the Bar Keir....
If Starmer goes back to the bar he'll be reunited with his ex-deputy PM
If HM opposition cannot gain seats when a government is this unpopular what chance do they have? They’ve been largely eclipsed.
At least an unpopular government has some cards to play. Nor sure what cards HM opposition have when other opposition parties are more popular .
I think your first statement ignores the fact that said opposition was in power for 14 years and has just been turfed out.
Wasn’t an issue for Labour in 2011 and the Tories in 1998.
2011 is a bad example, as it was the days of three party politics and two of them were in coalition; Labour benefitted from being the only party not in government that had any airtime.
This time, Reform and the Greens were coming off the back of a decent GE, so were obviously the NOTAs. The surprise for me is how the Lib Dem’s haven’t prospered, given an unpopular Labour govt and a wounded Tory party who’ve just been thrown out
So why did the Tories make net gains in 1998?
Because they were very clearly the principle opposition. This was no longer obviously the case in large swathes of the country after 2024.
Reform represents a view which has always been there but up until recently has never really had an outlet, given FPTP's way of forcing voters to vote for the party with the beat chance of defeating the one they dislike most, rather than the one they most favour. They're a new electoral force but not really a new set of views - just one which previously got swallowed up in a Conservative Party which didn't really represent them except at the margins.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 11m Bexley result a clear response to Nigel Farage's mad policy of threatening to put asylum centres in areas close to Green voting councils.
If HM opposition cannot gain seats when a government is this unpopular what chance do they have? They’ve been largely eclipsed.
At least an unpopular government has some cards to play. Nor sure what cards HM opposition have when other opposition parties are more popular .
I think your first statement ignores the fact that said opposition was in power for 14 years and has just been turfed out.
Wasn’t an issue for Labour in 2011 and the Tories in 1998.
2011 is a bad example, as it was the days of three party politics and two of them were in coalition; Labour benefitted from being the only party not in government that had any airtime.
This time, Reform and the Greens were coming off the back of a decent GE, so were obviously the NOTAs. The surprise for me is how the Lib Dem’s haven’t prospered, given an unpopular Labour govt and a wounded Tory party who’ve just been thrown out
So why did the Tories make net gains in 1998?
Implicitly agreeing that 2011 is a bad example, 👍🏻!
Not sure about 1998, I didn’t follow politics then
Very early days but John Curtice and Michael Thrasher both say Labour are so far performing less badly than expected
Curtice tells BBC: “Labour's rate of seat loss were to continue to the end of tomorrow, they could be looking at losses of just over 1200 seats, rather less than some anticipated”
Top expectations management from Labour over the last fortnight, making everyone expect a calamity so that now a mere disaster doesn't seem so bad.
If that is so, it is about half the seats they were defending.
On Con not doing well: isn't that just a function of current politics, which is both way more fragmented and volatile than in the past? Back in 1998 it was still a two party system.
Reform clearly coming first but as Lyons and Curtice say maybe not quite as great for them as forecast and Labour suffering heavy losses but still tied for second place on councils won with the Tories with just 1 council seat between them.
Some good Tory results in areas like Bexley, Harlow, Broxbourne and Fareham too which the Tories held where Reform would have hoped to take the council. Excellent Tory results in central London as well with the Tories winning control of Westminster council from Labour, holding Kensington and Chelsea and winning most seats in Wandsworth
Fareham is the interesting one. No Suella Surge for Reform there (though the bit of her constituency in Havant may play out differently.)
Ha. Angela Rayner has deleted her video lecturing pupils at Audenshaw School, Tameside. I hope the governing body and headteacher have reflected on their actions here, which were illegal; and that Angela Rayner learns how to nurture nascent political interest, not crush it.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Should be some tax revenue from that? A glimmer of good news for Reeves.
I thought Jenrick was a wanker but now he has gone even further down in my estimation for committing this awful sin of saying “Briddish”. What the fuck is this about - Sadiq Khan does it too. It should be a criminal offence.
Luke Tryl @LukeTryl · 5m Still lots of results to come in, but comparing the swing in local election results since 22 & swing implied by the polling average, it looks like the Tories are overperforming by about totally, Reform by 3, Labour on track, Greens underperforming and Lib Dems underperforming.
Seems there is a council ward in Portsmouth called Charles Dickens.
Exeter has a ‘ Mincinglake and Whipton’.
Dickens was born in Portsmouth.
He described my hometown, Chelmsford, as "the dullest and most stupid spot on the face of the Earth". One of the best things he ever wrote, imho. The council should pop that on the signs rather than "birthplace of radio".
Ha! He also described mine as "the prettiest place I ever saw in my life, at home or abroad" Although we also have a claim to the latter of your quotes, as Marconi did much of his pioneering radio work at a farm just along the coast here, and yet more at the Needles, where there's a Marconi monument.
What's becoming clear is the country is becoming even more segmented into regions of relative strength for all parties, and no one party being competitive across the board.
Reform's struggles in London are a good case of this. They are losing regardless of the incumbent: whether it was Labour, Tories or Lib Dems in their respective areas of strength.
Elsewhere Reform are dominating previously Labour or Tory areas.
Greens will no doubt challenge in certain urban areas.
We could very realistically get a very difficult GE election result where Reform have 200+ seats but the Tories don't have sufficient to prop up a right-wing government.
I think the way I would characterise these results is that it looks like five-party politics is here.
This is bad for Labour and the Tories, obviously, but it would have been worse if it looked like we were moving to three-party politics, where Labour and the Tories were not among those three parties.
If HM opposition cannot gain seats when a government is this unpopular what chance do they have? They’ve been largely eclipsed.
At least an unpopular government has some cards to play. Nor sure what cards HM opposition have when other opposition parties are more popular .
I think your first statement ignores the fact that said opposition was in power for 14 years and has just been turfed out.
Wasn’t an issue for Labour in 2011 and the Tories in 1998.
2011 is a bad example, as it was the days of three party politics and two of them were in coalition; Labour benefitted from being the only party not in government that had any airtime.
This time, Reform and the Greens were coming off the back of a decent GE, so were obviously the NOTAs. The surprise for me is how the Lib Dem’s haven’t prospered, given an unpopular Labour govt and a wounded Tory party who’ve just been thrown out
So why did the Tories make net gains in 1998?
Implicitly agreeing that 2011 is a bad example, 👍🏻!
Not sure about 1998, I didn’t follow politics then
Ha. Angela Rayner has deleted her video lecturing pupils at Audenshaw School, Tameside. I hope the governing body and headteacher have reflected on their actions here, which were illegal; and that Angela Rayner learns how to nurture nascent political interest, not crush it.
The likes of Angela Rayner - and, possibly the headteacher of this school - are utterly convinced by their own moral rightness. It doesn't really occur to them that other legitimate views are available. They don't really think much beyond "but we're the good guys".
On Con not doing well: isn't that just a function of current politics, which is both way more fragmented and volatile than in the past? Back in 1998 it was still a two party system.
It's mainly a function of how rapidly the Tories lost support after the 2022 local elections.
I would guess that the results this year would point to Tory gains in the 2027 local elections when the comparison is with 2023.
I think the way I would characterise these results is that it looks like five-party politics is here.
This is bad for Labour and the Tories, obviously, but it would have been worse if it looked like we were moving to three-party politics, where Labour and the Tories were not among those three parties.
I would not count any chickens that x-party politics is here until we have a General Election that matches those results.
There have long been minor parties succeeding in local elections and/or by-elections, but General Elections are a much tougher nut to crack.
I still expect some parties to outperform how they are doing now at the General Election, and others to underperform. Which will be which is a tougher thing to predict though.
What's becoming clear is the country is becoming even more segmented into regions of relative strength for all parties, and no one party being competitive across the board.
Reform's struggles in London are a good case of this. They are losing regardless of the incumbent: whether it was Labour, Tories or Lib Dems in their respective areas of strength.
Elsewhere Reform are dominating previously Labour or Tory areas.
Greens will no doubt challenge in certain urban areas.
We could very realistically get a very difficult GE election result where Reform have 200+ seats but the Tories don't have sufficient to prop up a right-wing government.
Reform: London is a crime-ridden hell hole that looks like the Third World.
If HM opposition cannot gain seats when a government is this unpopular what chance do they have? They’ve been largely eclipsed.
At least an unpopular government has some cards to play. Nor sure what cards HM opposition have when other opposition parties are more popular .
I think your first statement ignores the fact that said opposition was in power for 14 years and has just been turfed out.
Wasn’t an issue for Labour in 2011 and the Tories in 1998.
2011 is a bad example, as it was the days of three party politics and two of them were in coalition; Labour benefitted from being the only party not in government that had any airtime.
This time, Reform and the Greens were coming off the back of a decent GE, so were obviously the NOTAs. The surprise for me is how the Lib Dem’s haven’t prospered, given an unpopular Labour govt and a wounded Tory party who’ve just been thrown out
So why did the Tories make net gains in 1998?
Two party politics vs multi party politics. I don't see a scenario where we ever go back to a single unified party on the right, the Tory goal has to be getting a 5-6 point swing from Ref to Con by 2029. The age of a single party winning 40%+ at an election seems to be over or at least on long term hold until a truly inspirational leader can capture it but there isn't anyone like that in either Lab or Con. Who would you say could replace Kemi tomorrow and be truly inspirational to get the Tories at 40%+.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
How are the parties doing vs expectations? My forecast based on declarations. Numbers will shift significantly as afternoon results come in:
Reform +1,419 vs consensus +1,625 - slightly underperforming Labour -1,231 vs consensus -1,590 - losing badly, but less than feared Conservatives -547 vs consensus -652 - holding up a little better than expected Green +685 vs consensus +588 - outperforming LD +203 vs consensus +186 - on track
Yes, feels like the pattern is Reform killing it in the Red Wall but doing less well in the middle class parts of the south and still struggling in London
So far they seem to have hoovered up the Johnson 2019 Red Wall vote but they haven’t made much progress in the more liberal seats.
Doesn’t really imply a majority to me but maybe with a split vote they come through the middle.
Remains as it has done for some time. Reform will struggle to win an election outright. Though they’d likely do well enough to be largest party.
The question on the left/centre is how easily Labour can try and win back those voters for another go, so as to build a coalition that can defeat that. Right now, you’d like them to be doing much better in red wall seats for them to have that chance. But we still have a very uncertain outlook.
If you think as I do that Labour is in its current hole primarily because of the hatred of Sir Keir (although I am sure Labour could find somebody worse), then if Reform aren’t walking the map across the entirety of the country, it surely just confirms Labour should dump Sir Keir as soon as possible.
Luke Tryl @LukeTryl · 5m Still lots of results to come in, but comparing the swing in local election results since 22 & swing implied by the polling average, it looks like the Tories are overperforming by about totally, Reform by 3, Labour on track, Greens underperforming and Lib Dems underperforming.
On Con not doing well: isn't that just a function of current politics, which is both way more fragmented and volatile than in the past? Back in 1998 it was still a two party system.
Do they split out the number of postal votes from personal votes by ward? Just interested to know whether messaging when the PV are issued is different from the final days messaging?
If HM opposition cannot gain seats when a government is this unpopular what chance do they have? They’ve been largely eclipsed.
At least an unpopular government has some cards to play. Nor sure what cards HM opposition have when other opposition parties are more popular .
I think your first statement ignores the fact that said opposition was in power for 14 years and has just been turfed out.
Wasn’t an issue for Labour in 2011 and the Tories in 1998.
2011 is a bad example, as it was the days of three party politics and two of them were in coalition; Labour benefitted from being the only party not in government that had any airtime.
This time, Reform and the Greens were coming off the back of a decent GE, so were obviously the NOTAs. The surprise for me is how the Lib Dem’s haven’t prospered, given an unpopular Labour govt and a wounded Tory party who’ve just been thrown out
So why did the Tories make net gains in 1998?
Two party politics vs multi party politics. I don't see a scenario where we ever go back to a single unified party on the right, the Tory goal has to be getting a 5-6 point swing from Ref to Con by 2029. The age of a single party winning 40%+ at an election seems to be over or at least on long term hold until a truly inspirational leader can capture it but there isn't anyone like that in either Lab or Con. Who would you say could replace Kemi tomorrow and be truly inspirational to get the Tories at 40%+.
Newcastle upon Tyne will be really interesting in my opinion. A city but with significant Reform friendly demographics in a lot of places next to Green friendly demographics. The entire council is up for election on new boundaries so could be a Labour catastrophe.
I don't know if this might be a crumb of comfort for Labour, but one of the strong messages to come out if these results (as Prof Sir JC pointed out repeatedly this morning) is vote Green, get Reform ?
Labour is losing far more votes to the Greens than it is to Reform - and the Greens aren't getting enough votes to supplant them. The net effect is a lot of Labour losses to Reform.
Whether or not Labour can successfully weaponise that message is an open question.
I agree with others here that given Labour appear to have clung on more successfully in London that will dent the impression of complete disaster for them. Enough for SKS to come out fighting?
Outside of London it looks utterly horrific though.
Tories have done very badly too - perhaps not quite as awfully as they could have done in some places in the South, but some of those vote totals in some wards in the Northern councils are tiny - they are losing their ability to compete entirely in some places. Wandsworth is a bad miss IMHO.
LDs probably decent, Greens underwhelming, Reform doing well (though still perhaps hampered by weaknesses in places?)
They won 29/58 in Wandsworth - hardly a “bad miss”
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
How are the parties doing vs expectations? My forecast based on declarations. Numbers will shift significantly as afternoon results come in:
Reform +1,419 vs consensus +1,625 - slightly underperforming Labour -1,231 vs consensus -1,590 - losing badly, but less than feared Conservatives -547 vs consensus -652 - holding up a little better than expected Green +685 vs consensus +588 - outperforming LD +203 vs consensus +186 - on track
Yes, feels like the pattern is Reform killing it in the Red Wall but doing less well in the middle class parts of the south and still struggling in London
So far they seem to have hoovered up the Johnson 2019 Red Wall vote but they haven’t made much progress in the more liberal seats.
Doesn’t really imply a majority to me but maybe with a split vote they come through the middle.
Remains as it has done for some time. Reform will struggle to win an election outright. Though they’d likely do well enough to be largest party.
The question on the left/centre is how easily Labour can try and win back those voters for another go, so as to build a coalition that can defeat that. Right now, you’d like them to be doing much better in red wall seats for them to have that chance. But we still have a very uncertain outlook.
If you think as I do that Labour is in its current hole primarily because of the hatred of Sir Keir (although I am sure Labour could find somebody worse), then if Reform aren’t walking the map across the entirety of the country, it surely just confirms Labour should dump Sir Keir as soon as possible.
No - I think it’s much more complicated than just disliking SKS. He is a drag on his party - I agree with that. But the problems don’t fix themselves automatically on the change of leader, nor do I think they are as simple as people disliking one man. They still have serious questions around lack of direction, policies, who they represent, how they will enact meaningful reform etc. Those things might be improved by a leadership change, but they’re not a given.
I think the way I would characterise these results is that it looks like five-party politics is here.
This is bad for Labour and the Tories, obviously, but it would have been worse if it looked like we were moving to three-party politics, where Labour and the Tories were not among those three parties.
I would not count any chickens that x-party politics is here until we have a General Election that matches those results.
There have long been minor parties succeeding in local elections and/or by-elections, but General Elections are a much tougher nut to crack.
I still expect some parties to outperform how they are doing now at the General Election, and others to underperform. Which will be which is a tougher thing to predict though.
A lot may change before the general election, and perhaps the current state will develop into a three or four party contest by then, but I think the way in which the results are playing out differently in different areas points to each of the five parties having an area of strength that they can count on. So a five party split may be more stable than you would assume under FPTP.
I don't know if this might be a crumb of comfort for Labour, but one of the strong messages to come out if these results (as Prof Sir JC pointed out repeatedly this morning) is vote Green, get Reform ?
Labour is losing far more votes to the Greens than it is to Reform - and the Greens aren't getting enough votes to supplant them. The net effect is a lot of Labour losses to Reform.
Whether or not Labour can successfully weaponise that message is an open question.
I don’t think Labour has much to worry about when it comes to the Green vote with Polanski as leader.
Labour needs to stick in the centre and do something radical. Communicate better.
I still think Labour has an extremely good chance with a different leader that can actually explain what the government has done.
My summary. Reform sweeping up both Labour and Conservative votes, with both losing approximately half of their previous vote.
Greens doing well but underperforming against expectations. Lib Dems doing well and better than expectations.
Sounds very much like what I was predicting the other day. Media story is bad for Labour, Tories a bit meh but not good. Reform sweeping and Greens underperforming. Who are the Lib Dems again?
Ha. Angela Rayner has deleted her video lecturing pupils at Audenshaw School, Tameside. I hope the governing body and headteacher have reflected on their actions here, which were illegal; and that Angela Rayner learns how to nurture nascent political interest, not crush it.
The likes of Angela Rayner - and, possibly the headteacher of this school - are utterly convinced by their own moral rightness. It doesn't really occur to them that other legitimate views are available. They don't really think much beyond "but we're the good guys".
Isn't that true of a lot of politicians?
Like Thatchers "is he one of us?" Question.
As Pym said in 1986: “To be loyal means 100 per cent acceptance of government thinking: any dissent, or even admittance of doubt, is treachery and treason. After nine years as party leader and five as Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher still asks the question, ‘Are you one of us?’, by which she means, ‘Are you completely free of any doubt as to the utter rightness of everything we are doing?’ It will come as no surprise that I am not ‘one of us’.”
The Tories have gained councillors in Peterborough, somewhat against the tide, and Labour only lost two-thirds of the councillors it was defending there.
We may be seeing Labour/Tories benefiting from their remaining support being concentrated among higher turnout demographics.
I think they have a popular Mayor in that part of the world. May help explain.
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
How are the parties doing vs expectations? My forecast based on declarations. Numbers will shift significantly as afternoon results come in:
Reform +1,419 vs consensus +1,625 - slightly underperforming Labour -1,231 vs consensus -1,590 - losing badly, but less than feared Conservatives -547 vs consensus -652 - holding up a little better than expected Green +685 vs consensus +588 - outperforming LD +203 vs consensus +186 - on track
Yes, feels like the pattern is Reform killing it in the Red Wall but doing less well in the middle class parts of the south and still struggling in London
So far they seem to have hoovered up the Johnson 2019 Red Wall vote but they haven’t made much progress in the more liberal seats.
Doesn’t really imply a majority to me but maybe with a split vote they come through the middle.
Remains as it has done for some time. Reform will struggle to win an election outright. Though they’d likely do well enough to be largest party.
The question on the left/centre is how easily Labour can try and win back those voters for another go, so as to build a coalition that can defeat that. Right now, you’d like them to be doing much better in red wall seats for them to have that chance. But we still have a very uncertain outlook.
If you think as I do that Labour is in its current hole primarily because of the hatred of Sir Keir (although I am sure Labour could find somebody worse), then if Reform aren’t walking the map across the entirety of the country, it surely just confirms Labour should dump Sir Keir as soon as possible.
No - I think it’s much more complicated than just disliking SKS. He is a drag on his party - I agree with that. But the problems don’t fix themselves automatically on the change of leader, nor do I think they are as simple as people disliking one man. They still have serious questions around lack of direction, policies, who they represent, how they will enact meaningful reform etc. Those things might be improved by a leadership change, but they’re not a given.
They don’t fix themselves but people will be prepared to listen again. Sir Keir won’t be listened to. He’s finished.
I don’t like Burnham particularly but I think he’s got something to say. Same with Streeting.
It may not last - but it seems obvious to me that Labour should roll the dice. And I wasn’t saying that a few months ago.
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
I doubt they'll win in Scotland, and London is 10 million people.
I don't know if this might be a crumb of comfort for Labour, but one of the strong messages to come out if these results (as Prof Sir JC pointed out repeatedly this morning) is vote Green, get Reform ?
Labour is losing far more votes to the Greens than it is to Reform - and the Greens aren't getting enough votes to supplant them. The net effect is a lot of Labour losses to Reform.
Whether or not Labour can successfully weaponise that message is an open question.
Thus far Labour have tried to appeal to the Reform curious. They seem to have been hypnotised by look into my eyes, we must win back the Red Wall.
Starmer, for yet another time, "takes responsibility" for a disastrous result.
And as with Mandelson's appointment, this taking of responsibility comes with no action on his part
He devalues the English language every time he speaks
A leader who truly takes responsibility resigns after catastrophic failure.
The Operative: You know, in certain older civilized cultures, when men failed as entirely as you have, they would throw themselves on their swords. Dr. Mathias: Well, unfortunately, I forgot to bring a sword. Dr. Mathias: [as the Operative pulls out his sword] I would put that down right now if I were you. The Operative: Would you be killed in your sleep, like an ailing pet?
I don't know if this might be a crumb of comfort for Labour, but one of the strong messages to come out if these results (as Prof Sir JC pointed out repeatedly this morning) is vote Green, get Reform ?
Labour is losing far more votes to the Greens than it is to Reform - and the Greens aren't getting enough votes to supplant them. The net effect is a lot of Labour losses to Reform.
Whether or not Labour can successfully weaponise that message is an open question.
And not with Sir Keir in charge. Although as I said Polanski is doing just fine to blow the Greens up.
Hm. Far be it from me to gainsay the wisdom of John Curtice, but from my observations this doesn't appear to be true to anything like the extent I would expect. I was thinking this would be the case, but in the Reformiest areas it doesn't appear to be. Perhaps I am focusing too much on results local-ish to me in Greater Manchester and Halton and Chorley, but it looks to me like the growth in the Ref vote and the decline in the Lab vote is far larger than can be explained by the relatively marginal declines in Con vote and relatively marginal growth in green vote (these two figures are not marginal in the normal sense but in the context of swings of 80% between Ref and Lab are nowhere near the whole story or even half of it).
In the NW, the story looks to me to be as it appears at first glance: the sorts of voters who would once have voted Lab are now voting Ref.
Of course, what we don't have is the movement from Lab to DNV and from DNV to Ref. But still, from the evidence we have, it is the WWC - Labour's old base in these areas - who are now Reform's base. And voting green is still a marginal pursuit in these areas.
It will probably be more like John Curtice describes when the big cities are considered.
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
I doubt they'll win in Scotland, and London is 10 million people.
They'll definitely win seats in Scotland, maybe even become the leading unionist party by vote share.
No jokes but five minutes on politics, including the demise of Labour & Conservatives, and also Democrats & Republicans.
Unsurprisingly for a top comedian, Jimmy is very perceptive when it comes to changes in society.
Yes, who can forget Benny Hill’s insights on the 3 day week.
Merely quoting a counterexample doesn't disprove the point. Comedians are, by and large, reasonably smart by the standards of celebrities, and tend to have their finger rather more on the pulse of what people think than, for example, actors. Possibly as a result of having to think on their feet and interact with audiences (I am not aware that Benny Hill did this, much).
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
I doubt they'll win in Scotland, and London is 10 million people.
They'll definitely win seats in Scotland, maybe even become the leading unionist party by vote share.
Oh OK sorry I thought when you said winning you meant actually winning
How are the parties doing vs expectations? My forecast based on declarations. Numbers will shift significantly as afternoon results come in:
Reform +1,419 vs consensus +1,625 - slightly underperforming Labour -1,231 vs consensus -1,590 - losing badly, but less than feared Conservatives -547 vs consensus -652 - holding up a little better than expected Green +685 vs consensus +588 - outperforming LD +203 vs consensus +186 - on track
Yes, feels like the pattern is Reform killing it in the Red Wall but doing less well in the middle class parts of the south and still struggling in London
So far they seem to have hoovered up the Johnson 2019 Red Wall vote but they haven’t made much progress in the more liberal seats.
Doesn’t really imply a majority to me but maybe with a split vote they come through the middle.
Remains as it has done for some time. Reform will struggle to win an election outright. Though they’d likely do well enough to be largest party.
The question on the left/centre is how easily Labour can try and win back those voters for another go, so as to build a coalition that can defeat that. Right now, you’d like them to be doing much better in red wall seats for them to have that chance. But we still have a very uncertain outlook.
If you think as I do that Labour is in its current hole primarily because of the hatred of Sir Keir (although I am sure Labour could find somebody worse), then if Reform aren’t walking the map across the entirety of the country, it surely just confirms Labour should dump Sir Keir as soon as possible.
No - I think it’s much more complicated than just disliking SKS. He is a drag on his party - I agree with that. But the problems don’t fix themselves automatically on the change of leader, nor do I think they are as simple as people disliking one man. They still have serious questions around lack of direction, policies, who they represent, how they will enact meaningful reform etc. Those things might be improved by a leadership change, but they’re not a given.
They don’t fix themselves but people will be prepared to listen again. Sir Keir won’t be listened to. He’s finished.
I don’t like Burnham particularly but I think he’s got something to say. Same with Streeting.
It may not last - but it seems obvious to me that Labour should roll the dice. And I wasn’t saying that a few months ago.
I agree that SKS isn’t going to improve their fortunes. But I do think he is going to prove very difficult to dislodge. At least in the coming weeks.
Maybe when The King in the North is actually able to return to the Commons, that might change.
I think the way I would characterise these results is that it looks like five-party politics is here.
This is bad for Labour and the Tories, obviously, but it would have been worse if it looked like we were moving to three-party politics, where Labour and the Tories were not among those three parties.
I would not count any chickens that x-party politics is here until we have a General Election that matches those results.
There have long been minor parties succeeding in local elections and/or by-elections, but General Elections are a much tougher nut to crack.
I still expect some parties to outperform how they are doing now at the General Election, and others to underperform. Which will be which is a tougher thing to predict though.
A lot may change before the general election, and perhaps the current state will develop into a three or four party contest by then, but I think the way in which the results are playing out differently in different areas points to each of the five parties having an area of strength that they can count on. So a five party split may be more stable than you would assume under FPTP.
Just recall that people were saying the same sort of thing when the Brexit party won the Euro elections with the LibDems second and the Tories pushed down to below 10%. Thereafter we got Johnson's shambolic majority government with a Labour opposition followed by the current shambolic majority government with a Tory opposition.
I am not trying to be London centric about this but if you can’t do well in our capital city I don’t really know if you can call yourself a truly national party.
Tories have done well in London. So have Labour.
I’m not saying it matters to Reform’s prospects - it doesn’t.
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
I doubt they'll win in Scotland, and London is 10 million people.
They'll definitely win seats in Scotland, maybe even become the leading unionist party by vote share.
Oh OK sorry I thought when you said winning you meant actually winning
On that basis did Labour stop being a national party when they got wiped out by the SNP in 2015?
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Luke Tryl @LukeTryl · 5m Still lots of results to come in, but comparing the swing in local election results since 22 & swing implied by the polling average, it looks like the Tories are overperforming by about totally, Reform by 3, Labour on track, Greens underperforming and Lib Dems underperforming.
That's a pretty meaningless exercise with just a few mostly urban results in so far.
Don't know how this chap can say that the Lib Dems are underpeforming based on the current results. They've made the second most gains so far. A friend of mine who is a hardcore Lib Dem activist is always complaining about how the media ignore Lib Dem successes. Based on the Sky coverage I see her point. She has a particular animosity to Sir John Curtis for doing the above as well.
Luke Tryl @LukeTryl · 5m Still lots of results to come in, but comparing the swing in local election results since 22 & swing implied by the polling average, it looks like the Tories are overperforming by about totally, Reform by 3, Labour on track, Greens underperforming and Lib Dems underperforming.
That's a pretty meaningless exercise with just a few mostly urban results in so far.
Don't know how this chap can say that the Lib Dems are underpeforming based on the current results. They've made the second most gains so far. A friend of mine who is a hardcore Lib Dem activist is always complaining about how the media ignore Lib Dem successes. Based on the Sky coverage I see her point. She has a particular animosity to Sir John Curtis for doing the above as well.
I should have said there is more in the full thread:
Luke Tryl @LukeTryl · 26m Now for the Lib Dems in particular they are the party of hyper targeting and so there is probably less relevance here, but suggests even as they gain they are becoming more concentrated, suggests a ceiling at some point.
I don't know if this might be a crumb of comfort for Labour, but one of the strong messages to come out if these results (as Prof Sir JC pointed out repeatedly this morning) is vote Green, get Reform ?
Labour is losing far more votes to the Greens than it is to Reform - and the Greens aren't getting enough votes to supplant them. The net effect is a lot of Labour losses to Reform.
Whether or not Labour can successfully weaponise that message is an open question.
Thus far Labour have tried to appeal to the Reform curious. They seem to have been hypnotised by look into my eyes, we must win back the Red Wall.
Can Labour win without the WWC? There's still rather a lot of them.
I don't know if this might be a crumb of comfort for Labour, but one of the strong messages to come out if these results (as Prof Sir JC pointed out repeatedly this morning) is vote Green, get Reform ?
Labour is losing far more votes to the Greens than it is to Reform - and the Greens aren't getting enough votes to supplant them. The net effect is a lot of Labour losses to Reform.
Whether or not Labour can successfully weaponise that message is an open question.
Thus far Labour have tried to appeal to the Reform curious. They seem to have been hypnotised by look into my eyes, we must win back the Red Wall.
Can Labour win without the WWC? There's still rather a lot of them.
It's no wonder Leon is so bitter against the world, living slap bang in the middle of Camden surrounded by woke lefties; maybe it would be better for his mental health if he relocated to Basildon and lived out the rest of his days among his fellow intellectuals?
- bitter - Raging against the world - Isolated in a hostile environment - has mental health issues - Is stupid - (And as an aside so is everyone who lives in Basildon).
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
And where house prices are over 13x income.
There are places which are nice to visit and places which are nice to live in.
With the key determinant of whether a place is good to live in being whether you can afford to live there.
Ha. Angela Rayner has deleted her video lecturing pupils at Audenshaw School, Tameside. I hope the governing body and headteacher have reflected on their actions here, which were illegal; and that Angela Rayner learns how to nurture nascent political interest, not crush it.
The likes of Angela Rayner - and, possibly the headteacher of this school - are utterly convinced by their own moral rightness. It doesn't really occur to them that other legitimate views are available. They don't really think much beyond "but we're the good guys".
Isn't that true of a lot of politicians?
Like Thatchers "is he one of us?" Question.
As Pym said in 1986: “To be loyal means 100 per cent acceptance of government thinking: any dissent, or even admittance of doubt, is treachery and treason. After nine years as party leader and five as Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher still asks the question, ‘Are you one of us?’, by which she means, ‘Are you completely free of any doubt as to the utter rightness of everything we are doing?’ It will come as no surprise that I am not ‘one of us’.”
Thatcher kept the wets *in the Cabinet*. Left alone purging them from the party.
They were objecting to the fact that she made policy decisions they didn't agree with.
I don't know if this might be a crumb of comfort for Labour, but one of the strong messages to come out if these results (as Prof Sir JC pointed out repeatedly this morning) is vote Green, get Reform ?
Labour is losing far more votes to the Greens than it is to Reform - and the Greens aren't getting enough votes to supplant them. The net effect is a lot of Labour losses to Reform.
Whether or not Labour can successfully weaponise that message is an open question.
Thus far Labour have tried to appeal to the Reform curious. They seem to have been hypnotised by look into my eyes, we must win back the Red Wall.
These results say that's a waste of time.
What Labour needs is for the Tories to win back some Reform votes, while they take back votes from the Greens (or Polanski carrying on inserting foot in mouth does that for them).
I'm not convinced that a precipitate change of leader would help them much, FWIW, even though it seems inevitable Starmer will go before then next election.
No jokes but five minutes on politics, including the demise of Labour & Conservatives, and also Democrats & Republicans.
Unsurprisingly for a top comedian, Jimmy is very perceptive when it comes to changes in society.
Yes, who can forget Benny Hill’s insights on the 3 day week.
Merely quoting a counterexample doesn't disprove the point. Comedians are, by and large, reasonably smart by the standards of celebrities, and tend to have their finger rather more on the pulse of what people think than, for example, actors. Possibly as a result of having to think on their feet and interact with audiences (I am not aware that Benny Hill did this, much).
They also visit a lot of towns and cities in the country on tour, and have an idea of what the country as a whole, rather than the political and media elites in large cities, are thinking.
Comedians in the US predicted Trump, and his support in what the elites call the Flyover States.
Starmer, for yet another time, "takes responsibility" for a disastrous result.
And as with Mandelson's appointment, this taking of responsibility comes with no action on his part
He devalues the English language every time he speaks
A leader who truly takes responsibility resigns after catastrophic failure.
The Operative: You know, in certain older civilized cultures, when men failed as entirely as you have, they would throw themselves on their swords. Dr. Mathias: Well, unfortunately, I forgot to bring a sword. Dr. Mathias: [as the Operative pulls out his sword] I would put that down right now if I were you. The Operative: Would you be killed in your sleep, like an ailing pet?
Classic NU!0Kism -
- I was in charge. - I was receiving the salary and all the benefits. - I take responsibility for my organisation. - But no responsibility for anything it did. - Because I had no idea what was happening.
I am not trying to be London centric about this but if you can’t do well in our capital city I don’t really know if you can call yourself a truly national party.
Tories have done well in London. So have Labour.
I’m not saying it matters to Reform’s prospects - it doesn’t.
Labour could probably rely on Sadiq Khan to hold their support in London, so having a northerner as leader might help their perception nationally.
It's no wonder Leon is so bitter against the world, living slap bang in the middle of Camden surrounded by woke lefties; maybe it would be better for his mental health if he relocated to Basildon and lived out the rest of his days among his fellow intellectuals?
- bitter - Raging against the world - Isolated in a hostile environment - has mental health issues - Is stupid - (And as an aside so is everyone who lives in Basildon).
Can you explain to me which bit is “very funny”?
I think it’s just nasty.
Nah, he's trolling. I don't believe a word that comes out of his mouth and don't read his comments, except when someone responds. Quite why people feed him and Brixian, I have no idea.
How are the parties doing vs expectations? My forecast based on declarations. Numbers will shift significantly as afternoon results come in:
Reform +1,419 vs consensus +1,625 - slightly underperforming Labour -1,231 vs consensus -1,590 - losing badly, but less than feared Conservatives -547 vs consensus -652 - holding up a little better than expected Green +685 vs consensus +588 - outperforming LD +203 vs consensus +186 - on track
Yes, feels like the pattern is Reform killing it in the Red Wall but doing less well in the middle class parts of the south and still struggling in London
So far they seem to have hoovered up the Johnson 2019 Red Wall vote but they haven’t made much progress in the more liberal seats.
Doesn’t really imply a majority to me but maybe with a split vote they come through the middle.
Remains as it has done for some time. Reform will struggle to win an election outright. Though they’d likely do well enough to be largest party.
The question on the left/centre is how easily Labour can try and win back those voters for another go, so as to build a coalition that can defeat that. Right now, you’d like them to be doing much better in red wall seats for them to have that chance. But we still have a very uncertain outlook.
If you think as I do that Labour is in its current hole primarily because of the hatred of Sir Keir (although I am sure Labour could find somebody worse), then if Reform aren’t walking the map across the entirety of the country, it surely just confirms Labour should dump Sir Keir as soon as possible.
No - I think it’s much more complicated than just disliking SKS. He is a drag on his party - I agree with that. But the problems don’t fix themselves automatically on the change of leader, nor do I think they are as simple as people disliking one man. They still have serious questions around lack of direction, policies, who they represent, how they will enact meaningful reform etc. Those things might be improved by a leadership change, but they’re not a given.
They don’t fix themselves but people will be prepared to listen again. Sir Keir won’t be listened to. He’s finished.
I don’t like Burnham particularly but I think he’s got something to say. Same with Streeting.
It may not last - but it seems obvious to me that Labour should roll the dice. And I wasn’t saying that a few months ago.
The longer Starmer tries to stay in office, the more MPs Reform will get. I don't think any replacement will stop Labour from suffering a record breaking defeat but it is now about limiting the loss of seats.
That isn't something Streeting or Rayner can deliver. Burnham is going to struggle to get back in any by-election.
And I don't think he is as good as he thinks he is.
Caretaker leader is their best option. Steady them ship, limit the losses and let the next leader try to rebuild.
Seems there is a council ward in Portsmouth called Charles Dickens.
Exeter has a ‘ Mincinglake and Whipton’.
Dickens was born in Portsmouth.
He described my hometown, Chelmsford, as "the dullest and most stupid spot on the face of the Earth". One of the best things he ever wrote, imho. The council should pop that on the signs rather than "birthplace of radio".
Ha! He also described mine as "the prettiest place I ever saw in my life, at home or abroad" Although we also have a claim to the latter of your quotes, as Marconi did much of his pioneering radio work at a farm just along the coast here, and yet more at the Needles, where there's a Marconi monument.
Writtle (village still just about separated from Chelmsford) is the birthplace of radio. I guess your area was the nursery, developing/testing longer range and more useful radio Chelmsford was maybe the high school/university as the big factories/R&D were there for a long time.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges The Labour Party has to face a simple reality this morning. If it want's to stop this man entering Downing Street it needs to find a new leader. If it can't, or won't, fine. But stop pretending Keir Starmer is the solution to Reform. He's actually Nigel Farage's best recruiting sergeant.
Comments
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
1) have more to lose than to gain than to gain from the system being overturned
2) understand that they have more to lose than to gain from the system being overturned
It is perhaps why there is so little actual support for Reform among right of centre PBers.
#justkiddin'
Reform represents a view which has always been there but up until recently has never really had an outlet, given FPTP's way of forcing voters to vote for the party with the beat chance of defeating the one they dislike most, rather than the one they most favour. They're a new electoral force but not really a new set of views - just one which previously got swallowed up in a Conservative Party which didn't really represent them except at the margins.
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
11m
Bexley result a clear response to Nigel Farage's mad policy of threatening to put asylum centres in areas close to Green voting councils.
===
Hmmm. Really?
Not sure about 1998, I didn’t follow politics then
Angela Rayner has deleted her video lecturing pupils at Audenshaw School, Tameside. I hope the governing body and headteacher have reflected on their actions here, which were illegal; and that Angela Rayner learns how to nurture nascent political interest, not crush it.
https://x.com/adrian_hilton/status/2052633796680262083?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
@LukeTryl
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5m
Still lots of results to come in, but comparing the swing in local election results since 22 & swing implied by the polling average, it looks like the Tories are overperforming by about totally, Reform by 3, Labour on track, Greens underperforming and Lib Dems underperforming.
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2052654879580078365
Reform's struggles in London are a good case of this. They are losing regardless of the incumbent: whether it was Labour, Tories or Lib Dems in their respective areas of strength.
Elsewhere Reform are dominating previously Labour or Tory areas.
Greens will no doubt challenge in certain urban areas.
We could very realistically get a very difficult GE election result where Reform have 200+ seats but the Tories don't have sufficient to prop up a right-wing government.
This is bad for Labour and the Tories, obviously, but it would have been worse if it looked like we were moving to three-party politics, where Labour and the Tories were not among those three parties.
Ok, not top.
I would guess that the results this year would point to Tory gains in the 2027 local elections when the comparison is with 2023.
There have long been minor parties succeeding in local elections and/or by-elections, but General Elections are a much tougher nut to crack.
I still expect some parties to outperform how they are doing now at the General Election, and others to underperform. Which will be which is a tougher thing to predict though.
London: Ok, we may pass on voting for you.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
Do they split out the number of postal votes from personal votes by ward? Just interested to know whether messaging when the PV are issued is different from the final days messaging?
And as with Mandelson's appointment, this taking of responsibility comes with no action on his part
He devalues the English language every time he speaks
A leader who truly takes responsibility resigns after catastrophic failure.
Labour is losing far more votes to the Greens than it is to Reform - and the Greens aren't getting enough votes to supplant them.
The net effect is a lot of Labour losses to Reform.
Whether or not Labour can successfully weaponise that message is an open question.
Labour needs to stick in the centre and do something radical. Communicate better.
I still think Labour has an extremely good chance with a different leader that can actually explain what the government has done.
Like Thatchers "is he one of us?" Question.
As Pym said in 1986: “To be loyal means 100 per cent acceptance of government thinking: any dissent, or even admittance of doubt, is treachery and treason. After nine years as party leader and five as Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher still asks the question, ‘Are you one of us?’, by which she means, ‘Are you completely free of any doubt as to the utter rightness of everything we are doing?’ It will come as no surprise that I am not ‘one of us’.”
I don’t like Burnham particularly but I think he’s got something to say. Same with Streeting.
It may not last - but it seems obvious to me that Labour should roll the dice. And I wasn’t saying that a few months ago.
Dr. Mathias: Well, unfortunately, I forgot to bring a sword.
Dr. Mathias: [as the Operative pulls out his sword] I would put that down right now if I were you.
The Operative: Would you be killed in your sleep, like an ailing pet?
In the NW, the story looks to me to be as it appears at first glance: the sorts of voters who would once have voted Lab are now voting Ref.
Of course, what we don't have is the movement from Lab to DNV and from DNV to Ref. But still, from the evidence we have, it is the WWC - Labour's old base in these areas - who are now Reform's base. And voting green is still a marginal pursuit in these areas.
It will probably be more like John Curtice describes when the big cities are considered.
Maybe when The King in the North is actually able to return to the Commons, that might change.
The LDs have beaten the Greens in the match bet! I’ve done fifty quid!
Tories have done well in London. So have Labour.
I’m not saying it matters to Reform’s prospects - it doesn’t.
Luke Tryl
@LukeTryl
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26m
Now for the Lib Dems in particular they are the party of hyper targeting and so there is probably less relevance here, but suggests even as they gain they are becoming more concentrated, suggests a ceiling at some point.
@leon is:
- bitter
- Raging against the world
- Isolated in a hostile environment
- has mental health issues
- Is stupid
- (And as an aside so is everyone who lives in Basildon).
Can you explain to me which bit is “very funny”?
I think it’s just nasty.
There are places which are nice to visit and places which are nice to live in.
With the key determinant of whether a place is good to live in being whether you can afford to live there.
They were objecting to the fact that she made policy decisions they didn't agree with.
What Labour needs is for the Tories to win back some Reform votes, while they take back votes from the Greens (or Polanski carrying on inserting foot in mouth does that for them).
I'm not convinced that a precipitate change of leader would help them much, FWIW, even though it seems inevitable Starmer will go before then next election.
Comedians in the US predicted Trump, and his support in what the elites call the Flyover States.
- I was in charge.
- I was receiving the salary and all the benefits.
- I take responsibility for my organisation.
- But no responsibility for anything it did.
- Because I had no idea what was happening.
That isn't something Streeting or Rayner can deliver. Burnham is going to struggle to get back in any by-election.
And I don't think he is as good as he thinks he is.
Caretaker leader is their best option. Steady them ship, limit the losses and let the next leader try to rebuild.
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
The Labour Party has to face a simple reality this morning. If it want's to stop this man entering Downing Street it needs to find a new leader. If it can't, or won't, fine. But stop pretending Keir Starmer is the solution to Reform. He's actually Nigel Farage's best recruiting sergeant.
https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2052662762367500662