The Burnham surge – politicalbetting.com
The Burnham surge – politicalbetting.com
Yesterday we saw some signficant moves on the next Prime Minister market, with Andy Burnham usurping second place from Ed Miliband and potentally usurping first place from Angela Rayner. Whilst Andy Burnham isn’t an MP I don’t understand the immediate logic of him being in second place.
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Anyone but Burnham.
RefUK 26%(-1),
CON 19%(+2),
LAB 18%(+2),
GRN 15%(-2)
LDEM 13%(-1),
https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/2048999726536692165
He's dun sum inane stuff in the past.
But Starmer shall never vanquished be until Burnham shall come against him...
The Lib Dems seem determined to be behind whoever the Main Parties are instead of becoming one.
Starmer shall never vanquished be until Great Burnham wood to high Dunsinane Hill Shall come against him.
https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/02/09/by-the-pricking-of-my-thumbs-something-wicked-this-way-comes-2/
Or both?
It is a rather pathetic sight from Starmer, that he will put his own ego first before the good of his own party and arguably the country, to ensure the most popular candidate for the leadership can't even get back into parliament but he is protecting his own job. Compare the attitude of William Hague, who not only allowed Michael Portillo to contest the 1999 Kensington and Chelsea by election but actively supported him even though he knew Portillo would be a leadership rival as soon as he was elected. Hague even then made Portillo his Shadow Chancellor after he won the seat as he wanted his best people from the party on the green benches
Which wouldn't so bad if it wasn't for the fact SKS and this Government has been truly, truly dire and beyond useless.
Just one of many reasons why he should do so.
Starmer controls the NEC and they set the timetable.
That's a proper drubbing.
Another one for Kemi fans to please explain.
In an exclusive interview, the Conservative leader defends the triple lock as essential for pensioners - and dismisses rival Farage's commitment as 'just words'
https://inews.co.uk/news/kemi-badenoch-triple-lock-pension-is-actually-very-little-money-for-many-to-live-on-4383783
Anyhoo I will give you all a PB exclusive. A reliable source tells me Kemi is safe from a vote of no confidence if the locals/devolved elections are worse than feared, if there is one, she'll lose, but there's no appetite for one.
What will trigger a VONC is if she tries and spins bad results as an excellent performance.
If MPs want the King of the North then they will not be stopped by the NEC as the King will be being ousted at the same time.
Whilst Burnham is the obvious candidate, you have to remember the obvious rule in politics which is that the assassin never wins the crown. Labour's problem is that their 3 leading contenders are mad, dodgy and ineligible. But the pressure on Keith is now so massive that a way will be found to get past all of these because the status quo is untenable.
Every politician knows the triple lock is unaffordable. Instead of some sanity prevailing with a cross party decision to move to a double lock we just get more doubling down .
It is non means tested so goes to not just those living on it but pensioners generally, the richest generational cohort there has ever been and one that is forecast for the first time in generations to be richer than its children and grandchildren at the same stage of life.
The ever increasing share of GDP is simply mathematically unsustainable, at some point all tax would have to be spent on supporting the triple lock, then further down the line the whole economy would have to be spent on it, then we would have to borrow to support it. Of course the economy and/or the triple lock will break before we reach those points, but it is not sensible to bind future governments into an ever increasing share of GDP for any policy.
I've gone on about Andy = Northern Boris before. Another parallel is that it's hard to shake the impression that they were going to keep saying 'I wannabe the leader', no matter how boring or damaging that was, until they were indulged.
I wonder whether the King will speak in support of Ukraine when he addresses Congress later?
The first pensions were set actuarially at just beyond life expectancy. So it would provide an income to those who lived beyond working age. As life expectancy increased there was little move to increase pension age to match. So as life expectancy increases you get the situation where you are on a pension for longer than your working life. Bad economics.
So since people never vote to be poorer, stop giving them the money in the first place and move pension age. Or tax pensioners to match the contributions they should have made actuarially but didn't.
Considering the shellacking we'll receive elsewhere, that will be our best result.
https://www.google.com/search?q=how+much+is+the+maximum+state+pension+uk
That's quite a lot for doing nothing
Anyway, I'm getting towards the age where I shall be a millionaire pensioner. Does the government send a cheque or a wheelbarrow-load of doubloons?
"The experience stunned Ms. Ross-Mahé, who previously supported President Trump... “I didn’t think these things existed,” she said of the immigration facilities she was held in.
“I thought when we arrested them, we would treat them properly. It really shocked me.”
https://x.com/anna_bahr/status/2048865561707196446
"We"...
They categorised voters by the parties they were willing to consider voting for, identifying a 'progressive' group of 35% who'd only vote for Labour/LD/Green/SNP, a 'right' group of 33% who'd only vote Tory/Reform, and a centre or 'swing' group of 28% who could contemplate voting across the spectrum.
Their key finding is that the demographics and views of this centre group, far from being near median as you might expect, are significantly different from the other two groups. These swing voters are considerably younger, more educated, higher earning, less white, and more urban, and they have less antipathy to a whole stack of things from big business to AI to politicians than those with fixed left or right voting intentions. Only on Brexit are their views closer to the 'middle'.
His suggests this underlines how both Labour & Tory are trapped between the edge parties, which aren't competing for centre voters and can advocate simpler, more radical ideas, and those centre voters who would be repelled by the Tories aping Reform or Labour turning socialist. He sees that Labour has only a few issues with strong appeal to both its camp and a good slice of the centre, being the NHS and closer EU ties. He suggests the Tories have the greater problem, both because Reform's hold on right-voters is currently stronger than the Greens' on the left (maybe the locals will change that?) and because there are few policies with strong appeal both to its camp and the centre; the traditional/potential one of sound economic management/low tax etc isn't available because the Tories' copybook is still seen as badly tarnished. For the LibDems, who traditionally appealed to centre voters, their support is now even more firmly 'progressive' than is Labour's.
Adding to his thinking, one could surmise that the Brexit referendum and aftermath divided most people into two camps, with Leavers now identifying 'right' and Remainers now identifying 'progressive', and whose political self-identities are now fixed in ways that extend much wider than the European question, and who are increasingly tempted by more 'pure' policies from their camp. With relatively fewer genuine swing voters, tending to be those younger (hence less polarised by the debates of a decade back) and relatively more secure from the economic travails of our age. The LibDems, being the most pro-Remain party, are now rooted on the progressive side of the divide and no longer seen as a party in the middle.
He concludes, all three traditional parties are finding it hard "to appeal to a centre bloc who aren’t looking for populism, aren’t so economically insecure, and aren’t seeking to blow everything up or “roll the dice”. It’s a group that seems to have been forgotten in the rush to focus on the median voter that dominates both left and right blocs."
She then found herself in a dispute with one of her late husband’s sons, who allegedly cut off water, electricity and internet at her home.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/14/marie-therese-billy-ice-arrest-us-france
The YouGov MRP survey found that Nigel Farage’s party will win the largest share of the vote in 11 out of 13 of the region’s council areas when voters go to the polls next month
The survey indicates that Reform could win control of councils including Walsall, Newcastle-under-Lyme and Solihull, which are due to elect all their councillors on May 7
There is better news for Labour in Birmingham, with YouGov suggesting that Sir Keir Starmer’s party could hold on with the largest share of the vote.
Good morning, everybody.
My 86 year old wife stayed at home raising our 3 children and has a state pension of £115 per week
What doesn't work is the current debate. Very wealthy pensioners don't need it at all, the massive middling sort - most people - need it because they have legitimately planned around it. £12,500 (£25K for couples) off an income of £1m is not much. Take it off £30-70K and it's a lot.
For those with nothing else, except benefit top up and other exemptions, it is still close to proper poverty.
Step one should be to tax (including NI as tax) pensioners by the same system as workers. A fundamental rule should be that working never attracts higher tax rates than not working. And this should apply to benefits junkies too.
Not that Labour can do anything meaningful about that given the state of public finances. Which leaves the unlikely promises of the Greens.
If people don't have £10k a year to live in, however they get there, deserved or undeserved, then crime will rise, you will see more people homeless in city centres and the country will be a less pleasant place to live for all.
The money would have been returned to Michael Brown’s company. (The “donor”). That company wa under the control of court appointed administrators. Their job was to liquidate the assets and to return them to the creditors.
I think there was a bank loan (hsbc maybe) as well, so possibly not all of the money would have gone to the pensioners but in any event it would have gone to the victims of Brown’s fraud.
Step aside from the technicalities. The LibDems benefited from a large donation from a convicted fraudster at a time when he had robbed his clients blind. How is that morally justifiable?
Confirmed:
Sir Keir Starmer ***will*** impose a three-line whip on Labour MPs to oppose the motion referring him to the privileges committee for misleading the Commons, as we first reported at the weekend
Charles: my great-uncle knew his second cousin twice removed.
@MarqueeMark: my wife knows him.
@Roger: never mind that, he directed this 1970s soft drink advert.
@Cyclefree: look how he lied in the great widget scandal.
The point is it's unaffordable and should be considered a basic minimum and supplemented by workplace or personal pensions.
Is he a Russian troll?
As it should be.
People should be incentivised to work, save, invest and pay tax.
An absence of poor pensioners would indicate that the economic balance of the country was wrong.
If pensioners want the triple lock to continue then pensioners will have to pay more in tax.
It is a stunt. And it is different to liar Johnson situation. A stunt because the trick here is to watch Labour MPs clambering to block an enquiry. And different because Johnson was ignoring the rules of lockdown when others couldn’t see their granny’s.
https://x.com/karlturnermp/status/2049024278327128505?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
National Insurance (NI) credits fill gaps in your record when you are not paying contributions, protecting your State Pension entitlement. You receive them for periods of illness, unemployment, approved training, or caring duties. These credits ensure you maintain a qualifying year toward the full state pension.
Key Reasons You Receive National Insurance Credits
Illness or Disability: Credits are awarded if you receive Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) or Incapacity Benefit.
Unemployment: Credits are awarded while you are registered for Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) or looking for work.
Caring Responsibilities: You can receive credits if you receive Carer's Allowance, or Child Benefit for a child under 12.
Parenting/Family: Credits are awarded to parents or kinship carers of children under 12.
Approved Training: Attending approved training courses can earn you credits.
Jury Service: You are eligible for credits while serving on a jury.
Armed Forces: Partners of armed forces members who accompany them on overseas postings.
Self-Employment: If your profits are low (between £7,105 and £12,570), you may receive credits to protect your pension, according to TaxAid.
Apart from being a university student it seems hard NOT to get the national insurance credit.
A lot of people thought Starmer would be great after Corbyn and now look. I suspect the same would happen to Burnham or any other replacement.
JP Morgan moves staff from Paris back to London in Brexit climbdown
Johnny Mercer as Veterans Minister in the last Conservative government fought tooth and nail for the plight of veterans at the risk of his own Ministeral career where as this Labour Minister remains not only invisible but missing in action when it matters!