Knives out. Will Labour MPs remove Sir Keir Starmer? – politicalbetting.com
Knives out. Will Labour MPs remove Sir Keir Starmer? – politicalbetting.com
I’d like you picture a group of Conservative MPs dealing with a struggling leader. And now a group of Labour MPs in the same situation. Did you come up with something like this?
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The locals won’t be as bad as they think, they were at a low when most of these seats were last contested, and as we’ve seen in recent history it’s almost impossible to remove a Labour leader against his will.
Who would 80 MPs stand behind as a challenger? The obvious would have been Burnham, but he’s not an MP.
That is to say, not yet.
Starmer is politically inept (and, worse,doesn't seem to be learning to be any better on the job) but (a) I don't think he wants to go anywhere, and rivals are the one thing he's ruthless about and (b) there's no alternative Labour PM who looks credible and who can deliver results in the remaining time available.
My working assumption is Starmer stays both this year and next year.
After that, anyone will look like an upgrade to Labour MPs.
➡️ REF UK 25% (-5)
🌳 CON 22% (+3)
🌹 LAB 21% (+1)
🌍 GREEN 13% (+1)
🔶 LIB DEM 12% (nc)
❓OTH 3% (nc)
🟡 SNP 2% (nc)
N = 2,011 | 10-13/4 | Change w/ 8/4
https://x.com/luketryl/status/2044303698600350089?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
"Over five minutes [Donald Trump] swung from gushing praise for the King to scathing criticism for the prime minister."
Sky's @Stone_SkyNews provides analysis of his call with Donald Trump
🔗 Read more
https://x.com/SkyNews/status/2044310684733682069
This is all priced in and everyone expects it.
I expect a damp squib.
I'm seeing far too many people ordering and drinking fizzy cat's piss in pubs these days.
Starmer has proven himself relatively adept at managing the chaos that is the US President in the interests of the UK. It's a balancing act, but one he's done well. He also has personal rapport with Trump in a way I can't imagine Burnham or Raynor managing. Yes he still gets insults thrown his way, but that's par for the course.
For this reason, I'd rather he stays the course and is removed in 2028 in time for the general election in 2029. Have the new leader set their stall for the next term of they are able to get a new leader boost.
Another reason to pause is we are about to go through another bout of unpopular price rises and potential broader disruption. Does the new leader really want to start in a period where all governments will become less popular?
* Renters' Right Act 2025 (bash the Landlords)
* Employment Rights Act 2025 (bash the Employers)
* Two Child Limit on UC (Make Love not War)
* Hug a European (changes to the relations with the EU)
* Replacing Trump as the hub-and-spoke on Ukraine and Hormuz.
This pushing himself into places that Trump doesn't want to go while taking abuse from Trump is quite a feat. Shows he has much thicker skin than the presumed. He's not for turning to coin a phrase.
However leopards can change their spots so...........
Biden was (and remains, even after his loss) extremely popular with a significant portion of the Democratic Party and its supporters. Despite never having a reliable majority in Congress, he had an impressive legislative record. As his recent public appearances demonstrate, reports of his 'dementia', and complete incapacity were overstated.
Once he decided to run again, a serious attempt to primary him would have risked massive division in the party. He would never have been challenged by his VP, and if Harris too was passed over fir the nomination, a large part of the Democratic base would very likely have been alienated.
It's certainly possible (though by no means certain) that the Democrats could have done better if they had gone through a real primary process - but i think only if Biden himself had chosen much earlier not to run again.
I suspect the same might be true of Starmer.
The best chance for Labour is if they actually deliver on policy. A leader contest is likely to be a drawn out distraction which will disrupt their chances of doing so.
A new figurehead might well help at, but the best chance for that would be Starmer stepping down.
Rayner is still sin binned, Burnham is still trapped in Manchester. And whilst they're better at politics, I suspect they'd be worse at government. Though that might be my inner old Tory wet speaking.
The traditional shortlist is still Reeves, Cooper, Mahmood, Lammy.
Starmer got the job faute de mieux. Mieux are still pretty fauteing.
This suggestion has nothing to do with the fact I tipped Ed Miliband at 100/1 to succeed Starmer.
There are of course exceptions but there's a reason traditional ales have been declining for years. I suspect you'll be one of the younger CAMRA members!
I really do not know what labour will do about Starmer
I assume he would not survive May if there was an obvious successor, but equally if May is as bad as expected why would labour hang onto him as any recovery in his and labour's prospects would seem highly unlikely
Nobody is indispensible and if Starmer had a health issue or something else, labour would have to find a successor
It is a very real problem
And on today's more in 'common poll' good to see the reduction in reform's lead and Kemi's modest progress
Fist is that Dave's tweet from 2015 really was cursed, añd the only way to break the curse is to experience chaos with Ed Miliband.
The other is that the flames of fury from the Mail etc would mean that there wasn't an energy crisis.
I have just had a quick look at Betfair and she is 3.8 for next PM, next nearest is Farage on 10, with Badenoch on 23.
So it isn't just me thinking this. The question is one of when rather than whether Starmer goes. The 2027 local elections are going to be no better. There never is going to be the perfect time for a challenge.
And yet, I agree with those who point out his greatest strength is that there is no obvious successor in the way that, say, Brown was to Blair. I am not sure what it will take for enough MPs to panic but I doubt it will be a poor set of results in the local elections.
This country desperately needs some competent leadership. I wonder if Carney would be interested in a job share.
Kemi within 3 must be a real worry for Farage. Once she leads him, his USP of "changing the duopoly of power" is in the bin. Qt least on the right.
Go Kemi!
I like a real ale but in too many pubs it isn't kept properly or turned over quickly enough.
Freshwater Strategy's monthly poll is out in City AM and shows a large Reform drop like MiC, this time to Labour mainly.
Reform are currently under 30 with every pollster that has reported in 2026 (Deltapoll had them at 30 in December and havent reported since). So at least for now the 'decline' narrative for Reform seems accurate. Could all change if they have a good set of LEs of course.
Ref 26 (-4)
Lab 22 (+4)
Con 19 (+1)
Grn 15 (=)
LD 13 (=)
10-12 April
Caveat - Freshwaters numbers tend to fluctuate quite a bit
As I said yesterday morning, they should face the consequences of their actions, or indeed their inaction. If they escape criminal charges on a technicality, the Government should deport them.
And if the ECHR stands in the way?
That tells you everything you need to know about why we must leave.
https://x.com/kemibadenoch/status/2044309663353565509?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
More or less a single question from Carroll, followed by a gradual and comprehensive demolition of Trump's entire war leadership and (lack of) strategy from Bronk despite a professional performance from the US military of their instructions. And some better insight into the things that US allies have actually been doing.
"How Epic Fury Won the War but Lost the Peace"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onSiPm9ujOE
Andy Burnham PM 2028/2029. Election in one of those years. Labour led government.
I know which I think the more likely.
As with the Shamima Begum case, there’s a lot of people who will be worried about stuff like this.
I note AR had been found in possession of a knife by the school 10 times, was known to Prevent, to social workers, CAMHS and Police. If none of these were willing to act, what could the parents be realistically expected to do?
Can totally see Tories breaking the 30s next year.
Great header thanks, but isn't it the 2024 Democrat Primary?
No reason why the Tories won’t be the beneficiaries as we get closer to an election. They are in my view very underpriced.
Reform to fade away
At the same time all the big five leader approvals are down. Farage hits his lowest since the General Election on -20, though still well above Starmer on -43. Badenoch is -13, Davey -14 and Polanski at a personal low of -19.
Down Polanski and Farage go. Badenoch holding steady, Tories have to be in a good position.
Gin was seen as an old lady's drink 15 years ago.
It's a much deeper,richer and more interesting drink.
The costs of managing the insolvency of the main trading arm of Greensill are expected to reach more than £90 million this year.
Administrators of Greensill Capital (UK), or GCUK, which collapsed more than five years ago, said they are still dealing with the complicated fallout from its failure, including a series of regulatory and legal issues and the fact that more than $587 million “remains outstanding” from Sanjeev Gupta’s GFG Alliance.
Insolvency practitioners from Grant Thornton disclosed in filings that time costs and expenses on the company have reached £82.6 million, making it one of the most expensive UK corporate collapses of recent years. Administrators said they anticipate a further £11.6 million in time costs and expenses to deal with “remaining matters” this year.
A further £1.2 million has been incurred on Greensill Capital Management, also in administration. Grant Thornton is charging an average of £779 an hour for the insolvency work.
https://www.thetimes.com/business/companies-markets/article/greensill-capital-collapse-insolvency-bill-hits-83m-3kbmvhf38
In the eighties you had the Falklands.
My hunch is that the authorities didn't have sight of what he was doing at home and, had they known, he could have been locked up for a long time on terrorism charges.
But... the powers that be don't like the t word being mentioned in relation to Southport.
If she only concentrated on doing the work rather than the soundbites, she might become a so-so politician but she's too lazy for that.
It’s not as if the media have been hammering him on his Trump sycophancy or the numerous dodgy Reform candidates .
Did they not look into his bedroom and computer? Completely incompetent by Prevent, police and social workers if they did not.
I am sure that the parents were at their wits end. One week prior to the killings the father prevented AR from taking a taxi.
The by election wins in Glasgow and Crosby were pretty enormous.
They were still making massive gains in votes in the by elections 82-83 in Birmingham, Peckham, Darlington, Mitcham and Bermondsey but only won Bermondsey which kinda summed up 1983 GE - massive vote gains, 23 seats
Whether Reform, Greens etc suffer the same fate? Both Lab and Con are much less popular than the 1980s.....
And, as for him carrying a knife, I'm not sure why you're surprised that the authorities weren't bothered.
Green leader Zack Polanski will call for policies to end the "affordability crisis" tomorrow
- The introduction of a 10:1 pay ratio, whereby the highest-paid employee earns no more than ten times the lowest-paid
- Free school meals for all primary and secondary pupils
- Universal energy bill support for households and stronger rent controls
- A customs union with the EU to cut business costs
Not sure this is the right moves Zack
It melted away like a dropped ice cream on a hot pavement in july.
Of course things are different now, but they have similarities. At heart the British public is not racist, most understand that things do need paying for at some point. There will always be the loons at the edges (right and left are as bad, in different ways). But the centre is where power lies.
Badenoch returned to Britain in 1996, a year when the UK had net immigration of 55k.
The immigration laws of that time helped keep migration at controlled, planned for levels, something they haven't done for twenty years.
You heard it here first. DYOR!
Frida Kahlo's Wooden Leg. Frida Kahlo was a Mexican artist from the 1st half of the 20C, who also holds the record for the most expensive artwork at auction by a woman.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frida_Kahlo#:~:text=a Mexican painter known for,nature and artifacts of Mexico.
Via another blast from teh past - Manolo the Shoe Blogger, who was making a 6 figure income from blogging about fashionable shoes 20 years ago.
Blog: https://shoeblogs.com/2015/05/13/frida-kahlos-wooden-leg/
Interview: https://problogger.com/shoeblogs-six-figure-blogger/
Manolo was a History / Politics Academic called HD Miller, and made enough money to leave academe:
https://pjmedia.com/ed-driscoll/2015/05/02/legendary-shoe-blogger-reveals-secret-identity-n260081
And the Conservatives are now the PUNservatives, until they are human again, and he stops.
I honestly dont think the gameshow style giveaways have helped, but thats just a gut feeling
The 'establishment' parties have a core/base to bump along at, Reforms vote is majority unstable/discontent so has much more capacity to inflate and deflate or burst. Much less tribal loyalty
So even if Labour come third or worse in the May local and devolved elections that does not necessarily mean Starmer will be removed. Labour members polling shows that Starmer would still beat Mahmood, Yvette Cooper and Wes Streeting with Labour members. Burnham would beat him but Starmer ensured the NEC stopped him returning to Parliament, only Rayner leads Starmer with Labour members, so only if Rayner got enough nominations from Labour MPs for a leadership challenge would Starmer really be under threat.
https://labourlist.org/2026/02/keir-starmer-wes-streeting-leadership-survation-poll/
The US comparison doesn't really hold though, Biden was never beaten by Trump, indeed Biden is the only Democrat who has ever beaten Trump in the electoral college as he did in 2020. Replacing Biden with Harris saw the Democrats face crushing and humiliating defeat in 2024 as Trump beat Harris in both the popular vote and electoral college, who knows, even a dementia hit Biden might have done better than Harris did in the rustbelt still
I'd take a resurrection of Blankety-Black in preference.
I was reading about Ian Huntly, no longer a guest of the King, and the role of Maxine Carr in helping him to try to cover up his crimes. She served threes for perverting the course of justice. Ultimately justice was done. In this case by failing to be candid his parents have played a role in the death of three children, the wounding of many more children and adults (both physically and psychologically) and there needs to be come back.
We have, for many years, been reluctant to blame parents for their off-springs misdeeds. Yet there is no bigger influence on a child than their parents.
Time to change that attitude.
In other areas, she's essentially done what you'd expect from an opposition - opposing unpopular decisions. She's somewhat disadvantaged in that respect, though, as the response is always that she was in the cabinet relatively recently, dealing rather poorly with many of the same issues.
The Green solution would be financial support to enable a reduction in energy usage and hence reduced costs
Applying it to football clubs might be difficult.
I would call that racism.
Its also an encouragement to waste energy which is not something any party, let alone one which purports to be environmental, should be advocating.
That's why I come back to the terrorism stuff. That's what they could have got him on, but, of course, we can't say that Southport was terrorism.
Its arguing that someone should be stripped of that prize if their subsequent behaviour shows them to have been unworthy of receiving it.
Now that may or may not be a good idea but it is not race specific.
Politicians have the ability to change the law. Hiding behind the "rule of law" is not a politicians job.
If the law is right, argue that. If the law is wrong, argue to change it. She made an argument to change the law, not break the law.
I realise that idea will perhaps have appeal to some (perhaps even some PBers), but whichever side of the argument you're on, it is surely wrong ?
So deporting people without a conviction let alone a charging decision is not a world I want to live in.
Though that itself could be taken into account when calculating the ratio or just by basing the ratio not on the lowest paid in an organisation but national minimum or average wage.
And if the highest paid employees try to set themselves as limited companies then that could be matched by widening the definitions of employment.
I think that there is a good argument that Rudakubana's parents should be held responsible in this way. Their failure to act materially contributed to the death of those 3 girls. I can see a strong public interest in making it clear to any other parents in that situation that they have legal accountability for their actions and non actions.
In 2014, Orban’s vote share fell from 52.7% to 44.9% - and he kept his supermajority anyway. Because the constitutional machinery he built between 2010 and 2014 was designed to convert a plurality into unchecked power. Majoritarian multipliers. Gerrymandered maps. Courts with loyalists on 12-year terms. A Budget Council that can dissolve parliament if a budget lapses.
He said it plainly to an Austrian reporter: “I make no secret of the fact that in this respect I tie the hands of the next government. Not just the next one, but the next ten.”
Magyar won the election. He did not yet win the system. Those are two different things and the distance between them is where democracies get lost.
JVL’s point - and it lands hard - is that the American illiberal project is watching Hungary right now not as a cautionary tale but as a how-to guide for what comes after a defeat. The rehabilitation of Orban is already underway in certain op-ed pages. The argument: if he left without bloodshed, he was never really a threat.
That argument is doing work right now. Pay attention to who’s making it.
https://x.com/micyoung75/status/2044222566147981538
That would seem to include some here.
I think the money's gone folks!
GFG borrowed money against fictional invoices for supplying steel they didn't supply.
I like the Greensill model because it's actually really simple.
Repackage factored invoices as insurance based securities and sell them to someone clueless at Credit Suisse
Ran out of real invoices? Type up some "hypothetical" invoices or offer 0% salary advances to the public sector "out of the goodness of your heart" as filler to increase the volume.
All OK until someone at the Aussie underwriters does a check and hits the panic button about the enormous risk his colleague has put them in.