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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,706
    edited 1:36PM

    Starmer has gone viral with his head in his hands
    Davey outed himself again as a Labour super subscriber
    Reform did a walk out stunt that looked very foolish

    Not as dull as it seemed

    You're missing the biggie.

    Big John Owls said Starmer won PMQs.
    Yes, given his view of Starmer (lower than a snake's belly) that is what you call rock solid 24 carat testimony. The PM must have had an absolute stormer.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,723
    edited 1:38PM
    Andrew Neil weighs in:

    https://x.com/afneil/status/2036798205602476072
    This whole McSweeney phone theft business is beginning to stink.
    The timing is incredibly convenient for a government that wants to cover up.
    Why did McSweeney report the theft to the police himself?Surely Downing Street security should have been immediately alerted — and they would handle it from there.
    Did McSweeney want to establish a record of him reporting it?
    Why did McSweeney never correct the police when it was clear they thought the theft had been in the East End and, of course, it happened in Westminster. Did McSweeney relish the confusion?
    Why did McSweeney not make clear the national security significance of it being his phone to the police? Was he worried they’d then take it seriously, unlike most phones thefts?


    Just a thought, MI5 could have eyes on that phone 24/7, can someone get a warrant from a judge to the phone company for the movements of both the stolen phone and McSwinney’s personal phone that night?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,530
    .

    Nigelb said:

    .

    As I’ve said continuously I’m fully supportive of more North Sea oil drilling but I think the idea it would have any impact on energy bills is thin.

    Why are supportive of opening up new fields when the vast majority of experts say no? What do you know they don’t?

    https://theconversation.com/would-more-north-sea-drilling-lower-uk-energy-bills-our-analysis-says-no-278467

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67945281

    https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-would-opening-up-north-sea-oil-again-resolve-the-current-energy-price-problems-for-the-uk

    Kemi and her front bench team are going to have to u-turn on this, so they are in future backed up by the science and the facts in what they are claiming.
    No they don't.
    They say it won't change oil and gas prices, which it won't.

    As a matter of economics, it will earn the country money, and won't make any difference at all to our oil and gas consumption.

    We could even put the £2bn or so extra that government might earn into solar plus grid backup projects.

    So there is no good argument not to do it.
    The Unions game here is wholly interested in taxpayers money keeping people in jobs, by government subsidising any industry, anywhere, that’s not economically viable or profit making. That’s what Unions are doing in the lobby.

    The industry lobby says it’s all government policy decision, not geology at all.
    Green Lobby says UK North Sea is waning due to geology, and UK policy is still too much commitment to drilling fossil fuel for far too long. Here’s an example of Green Lobby spin:
    https://www.upliftuk.org/post/the-declining-economics-of-the-north-sea

    North Sea policy is a war. There’s various sides, each have vested interest in not sticking to fact or balance - including government with their net zero policy, and the Conservatives who invented net zero policy in office, but prefer to argue Populist position against net zero in opposition.

    Truth is the first casualty of war. It’s very hard to for us to spot what’s smartest in long run with this one imho.
    That's just babble.
    If the government allowed licenses for the new fields, industry would develop them at their own expense.

    There's no argument about that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 127,085
    kinabalu said:

    Starmer has gone viral with his head in his hands
    Davey outed himself again as a Labour super subscriber
    Reform did a walk out stunt that looked very foolish

    Not as dull as it seemed

    You're missing the biggie.

    Big John Owls said Starmer won PMQs.
    Yes, given his view of Starmer (lower than a snake's belly) that is what you call rock solid 24 carat testimony. The PM must have had an absolute stormer.
    I know, it's like me saying nice things about Max Verstappen.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,015
    edited 1:41PM
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brixian59 said:

    If Katie Lam is the future of anything then they are truly fucked.

    Personally I think the next Tory defection will be to LD in a strong LD area, from a moderate one nation Tory who is unable to accept Badenoch death March right right right.

    There aren't many Tory MPs from strong LD areas left though, most LD leaning areas in the likes of Surrey and Oxfordshire and Hertfordshire and Berkshire already went LD at the 2024 general election. The few who did hold on in those areas like Hunt will stay Tory regardless
    Here are the possible LD gains and the Tory candidates for defection to LDs:

    East Hampshire: Damian Hinds
    Farnham and Bordon: Gregory Stafford
    Godalming and Ash : Sir Jeremy Hunt
    Hamble Valley: Paul Holmes
    Romsey and Southampton North : Caroline Nokes
    North Cotswolds: Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
    North Dorset: Simon Hoare

    All unlikely defectors I think.
    Indeed and less than 10% combined of the even relatively small current Tory parliamentary party, only ones I could see possibly going LD of those are Nokes and Hoare. Though if Cleverly replaced Badenoch as Tory leader after May I think even they would stay
    Some of those are very strange constituencies. Farnham (posh Surrey town) and Bordon (run down ex military town with a shitload of new housing) have very little in common, ditto Godalming (equally posh Surrey town) and Ash (suburb of Aldershot).
    Another bright idea from the Cameron days.
    The rules given to the boundary commission were such that some strange constituencies were unavoidable but there is no perfect solution.

    To create sensible (in your eyes) constituencies you would need constituencies of different sizes and should 1 person's vote be worth less than someone elses... The whole point of the last set of reforms was to ensure all constituencies were roughly 80-85,000 voters (don't remember the exact figure but I'm sure it's that).
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,094

    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    Looks like Reform will have to stop accepting dodgy money through cryptocurrency.

    I expect we’ll hear a load of whining about it being a witch hunt .

    Doesn't seem unreasonable to prevent political parties taking untraceable anonymous money, especially in an age of malign foreign powers trying to buy influence in our politics. You'd think Reform would want to be "whiter than white" in this regard (no joke intended) what with their former Welsh leader doing time for taing Russian bribes.
    On this subject, did we ever find out which who provided that big payment to the leave campaign that was channeled through Northern Ireland to disguise its source?
    Seems perfectly reasonable to me and, in spite of Nico’s Reform obsession it would affect all parties.

    Of course Labour also has its own issues with Russian influence as well.

    Brexit happened,get over it.
    You don't need to tell me that, I spent an hour in a security line at Frankfurt Airport yesterday! Gave me plenty of time to curse the MFs who voted for it...
    And the Europeans who can't run a border operation to save their lives. I waltzed through Cambodian, Singaporean and Malaysian airports over the winter, delays at the border are nothing to do whether we are in the EU or not, it is down to basic competence. After all, we are not in ASEAN but they don't feel the need to make us suffer.
    Yeah there is plenty of blame to go around.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,652
    Eabhal said:

    MelonB said:

    Electricity grid news: I think we are currently beating the all time record for renewables generation: over 30gw - 23.79 wind, 8.4 solar.

    Good timing for some bright breezy days considering the price and availability of gas.

    https://grid.iamkate.com/

    Don’t think I’ve ever seen gas that low at 1.2GW.
    Gigawatts or Jigger-watts? :lol:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,723

    kinabalu said:

    Starmer has gone viral with his head in his hands
    Davey outed himself again as a Labour super subscriber
    Reform did a walk out stunt that looked very foolish

    Not as dull as it seemed

    You're missing the biggie.

    Big John Owls said Starmer won PMQs.
    Yes, given his view of Starmer (lower than a snake's belly) that is what you call rock solid 24 carat testimony. The PM must have had an absolute stormer.
    I know, it's like me saying nice things about Max Verstappen.
    To be fair, Mr Verstappen is doing a good job this year with his outreach into German GT3 racing.

    As with Mr Vettel before, he’s slowly turning from a c*** into a human.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,479

    https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/2036780477718126770

    TFW Ed Miliband is running the government.

    image

    Well, I had to google what TFW means, Kemi, cos I'm not down with the kids like you.

    I do question the wisdom of her tweeting this sort of childish stuff out under her name rather than through the Central Office account. It speaks further to her lack of gravitas.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 34,478
    edited 1:44PM
    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2036747276421370354

    Sir Keir Starmer's national security adviser Jonathan Powell has been in talks with Wang Yi, China's foreign minister

    They have been talking about the need to 'deepen co-operation in all fields and to effectively manage disputes', Reuters reports

    Wang told Powell that 'all parties should avoid adding fuel to the first' on Iran

    It is worth noting that we only know about the fact of this visit through the Chinese state broadcaster CCTV

    There was no advance notice of the trip or briefing from the government at all

    What the actual effing eff?
    'Powell doing his job' shocker.
    Didn't realise his job was to make us a Chinese satrapy, but I suppose it makes a lot of sense.

    Pity the Chinese don't seem to share Sir Traitor's enthusiasm for the new detente, given that they sent him round the Forbidden City with a tourist guide because Xi couldn't be arsed. Perhaps they rightly realise they can give him orders without even an outward display of respect, and he'll take it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,706
    FF43 said:

    The problem with the Government's in the thrall of the mad Miliband narrative is that its energy policy is identical to the previous government's. Not similar, identical, with one and a half exceptions. The one exception is the previous ban on onshore wind farms. Not even Badenoch claims the country is in a better state Vis a Vis Iran because of a lack of wind energy. The half exception is that the previous government ignored its own policy on no new drilling in the North Sea.

    If Miliband is mad, logically the previous government was also mad for having the exact same policies. As a member of that government, Badenoch is simply drawing attention to her own supposed madness.

    It's a trope. There's something about (North London lefty intellectual with an odd mix of intensity and geekiness) EM that lends itself to 'bogeyman' frothing. Or alternatively ridicule.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,635
    The Tories are 1.6 percentage points behind the Greens in the latest polling average from ElectionMaps.

    https://electionmaps.uk/polling/vi
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,055
    Eabhal said:

    malcolmg said:

    Eabhal said:

    As I predicted, mandatory WFH here we come.

    If we're really lucky we might even get a de facto lockdown

    Huge energy price rises pile pressure on British companies

    Warning of businesses going under as cost of gas set to rise by as much as 80 per cent, while electricity bills to increase by up to 30 per cent


    Businesses across the UK are facing “eye-watering” rises in their energy bills because of the conflict in the Middle East, analysis for The Times suggests.

    Unlike households, companies are not insulated from volatility in gas and electricity prices, which have almost doubled since the Iran war began.

    The problem is particularly acute for the thousands of companies that fix their annual price tariff at the start of the financial year in April and will face an immediate sharp rise in their bills.

    Analysis by the energy consultancy Cornwall Insight found that as a result of the conflict, business users’ electricity bills would rise by up to 30 per cent, while the cost of gas could go up by as much as 80 per cent. This would mean that a business such as a larger retail and leisure site, on an average 12-month electricity contract, would have an annual bill of £578,000 — £95,000 more than early last month.

    For gas, bills have risen by £376,000, reaching just over £1.02 million a year, an increase of nearly 60 per cent, based on the latest wholesale prices.

    On Tuesday Wael Sawan, the chief executive of Shell, warned that Europe risked fuel shortages as soon as next month. At an industry conference in Houston, Texas, he said the global oil and gas supply squeeze had already forced parts of Asia to cut energy consumption and that the “ripple effect” threatened to spread west within days.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/huge-energy-price-rises-pile-pressure-on-british-companies-6w9m0j0xk

    Depressing. I’d much rather businesses were given some kind of some support - low interest government loans or similar - than handouts to people who can shoulder this. Loans that could bd used to install solar, heat pumps, batteries.

    I include myself in this. We save for emergencies so can weather this out. We do huge mileage each year, but a lot of that is social, weekend driving that we can cut back on. We don’t need any help from the government.

    OTOH , we don’t use much gas because we live in an energy-efficient flat, appropriate for two young-ish adults. I’m not sure why people like me should bail out those in big, detached houses. They’ve made their choice.
    If only spongers on benefits are getting the help I doubt many will be in big detached houses , once again telling that you spew hatred on a handful of poor pensioners ( unlike the majority) who may have a decent house and no money.
    Is this the “asset rich, cash poor” shite again? There’s another word for that - “rich”.

    My grandparents downsized and then later went into sheltered housing to convert their wealth into income (and reduce their expenses). But they were public and family minded people who took personal responsibility for their finances and care needs. This country needs more people like them rather than the kind of grasper you want to protect.
    :D
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,870

    https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/2036780477718126770

    TFW Ed Miliband is running the government.

    image

    Well, I had to google what TFW means, Kemi, cos I'm not down with the kids like you.

    I do question the wisdom of her tweeting this sort of childish stuff out under her name rather than through the Central Office account. It speaks further to her lack of gravitas.
    It's politics

    And also Central Office

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/2036786426113659036?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^2036786426113659036|twgr^77e57150e654a4bde791dbf1bd571cfc6dca6a31|twcon^s1_c10&ref_url=https://app.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/03/25/politics-latest-news-pmqs-keir-starmer-kemi-badenoch-iran/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,843
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    .

    As I’ve said continuously I’m fully supportive of more North Sea oil drilling but I think the idea it would have any impact on energy bills is thin.

    Why are supportive of opening up new fields when the vast majority of experts say no? What do you know they don’t?

    https://theconversation.com/would-more-north-sea-drilling-lower-uk-energy-bills-our-analysis-says-no-278467

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67945281

    https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-would-opening-up-north-sea-oil-again-resolve-the-current-energy-price-problems-for-the-uk

    Kemi and her front bench team are going to have to u-turn on this, so they are in future backed up by the science and the facts in what they are claiming.
    No they don't.
    They say it won't change oil and gas prices, which it won't.

    As a matter of economics, it will earn the country money, and won't make any difference at all to our oil and gas consumption.

    We could even put the £2bn or so extra that government might earn into solar plus grid backup projects.

    So there is no good argument not to do it.
    The Unions game here is wholly interested in taxpayers money keeping people in jobs, by government subsidising any industry, anywhere, that’s not economically viable or profit making. That’s what Unions are doing in the lobby.

    The industry lobby says it’s all government policy decision, not geology at all.
    Green Lobby says UK North Sea is waning due to geology, and UK policy is still too much commitment to drilling fossil fuel for far too long. Here’s an example of Green Lobby spin:
    https://www.upliftuk.org/post/the-declining-economics-of-the-north-sea

    North Sea policy is a war. There’s various sides, each have vested interest in not sticking to fact or balance - including government with their net zero policy, and the Conservatives who invented net zero policy in office, but prefer to argue Populist position against net zero in opposition.

    Truth is the first casualty of war. It’s very hard to for us to spot what’s smartest in long run with this one imho.
    That's just babble.
    If the government allowed licenses for the new fields, industry would develop them at their own expense.

    There's no argument about that.
    As @Richard_Tyndall keeps pointing out, look at what the Norwegians are doing. With largely similar geology.

    In some cases their fields are so close to the U.K. ones being shut down, that they will end up extracting oil from formations in the U.K. shutdown fields.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,530

    kinabalu said:

    Starmer has gone viral with his head in his hands
    Davey outed himself again as a Labour super subscriber
    Reform did a walk out stunt that looked very foolish

    Not as dull as it seemed

    You're missing the biggie.

    Big John Owls said Starmer won PMQs.
    Yes, given his view of Starmer (lower than a snake's belly) that is what you call rock solid 24 carat testimony. The PM must have had an absolute stormer.
    I know, it's like me saying nice things about Max Verstappen.
    Plenty of nice things you can say about him without too much effort.

    Eg He's a better driver than Lance Stroll...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,652
    edited 1:51PM

    https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/2036780477718126770

    TFW Ed Miliband is running the government.

    image

    Well, I had to google what TFW means, Kemi, cos I'm not down with the kids like you.

    I do question the wisdom of her tweeting this sort of childish stuff out under her name rather than through the Central Office account. It speaks further to her lack of gravitas.
    TFW I'm going to tank at the Local Elections!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,706

    kinabalu said:

    Starmer has gone viral with his head in his hands
    Davey outed himself again as a Labour super subscriber
    Reform did a walk out stunt that looked very foolish

    Not as dull as it seemed

    You're missing the biggie.

    Big John Owls said Starmer won PMQs.
    Yes, given his view of Starmer (lower than a snake's belly) that is what you call rock solid 24 carat testimony. The PM must have had an absolute stormer.
    I know, it's like me saying nice things about Max Verstappen.
    Well almost.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,870
    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories are 1.6 percentage points behind the Greens in the latest polling average from ElectionMaps.

    https://electionmaps.uk/polling/vi

    1.4% ahead ???
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 54,608
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On pensions - the next comedy will be when generation rent retires.

    If you own your property outright, you can live well on very little.

    If they are paying full rent, many will not have the resources to retire at all - no savings, since it all went on rent.

    An oncoming cliff of pensioner poverty.

    All workers should have their own pensions by then because of pension auto enrolment.

    If they don't that will be their own fault.
    Good luck with a pension big enough to support the rental values we see.
    Housing has more or less kept pace with inflation since 2006. Sustained UK wide real terms house price growth is long gone.
    We are just stuck at absurd prices now.

    Unless they drop by about 50%, the problems will continue.
    I follow this site on the Twitter

    Prices, mainly leasehold flats, seem to be falling in London.

    https://x.com/londonpricedrop/status/2036713688388755609?s=61

    Round by me houses are selling with small drops in asking price. Although it’s all relative. A decent 3 bed detached with 1 bathroom goes for about £300K
    House prices are seasonal. They go up on/after Easter, continue high until September, then stabilize/decline over Winter.

    Having said that, I have also heard about the London flat price falling that isn't obviously seasonal.
    Not just flats. London property is generally well off the peak.
    Varies by area I think. Where we are in SE14 prices are down marginally. Our house price has still almost doubled since we bought it in 2011 (not allowing for the rennovation/extension work) according to Zoopla. We still get handwritten notes from people saying they want to buy our house, demand still seems quite strong.
    It will vary quite a lot by area, yes, and I'm sure you're right about yours, but overall a more than marginal drop, I believe. Actual txn prices are the best indicator imo. Here, off about 15% since 22.
    Down 25% in real terms from the peak, on average.
  • As I’ve said, drill the North Sea oil.

    Just don’t - as the Tories are - pretend it’s about energy bills.

    Tax revenue is not the argument they are making.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 54,608
    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brixian59 said:

    If Katie Lam is the future of anything then they are truly fucked.

    Personally I think the next Tory defection will be to LD in a strong LD area, from a moderate one nation Tory who is unable to accept Badenoch death March right right right.

    There aren't many Tory MPs from strong LD areas left though, most LD leaning areas in the likes of Surrey and Oxfordshire and Hertfordshire and Berkshire already went LD at the 2024 general election. The few who did hold on in those areas like Hunt will stay Tory regardless
    Here are the possible LD gains and the Tory candidates for defection to LDs:

    East Hampshire: Damian Hinds
    Farnham and Bordon: Gregory Stafford
    Godalming and Ash : Sir Jeremy Hunt
    Hamble Valley: Paul Holmes
    Romsey and Southampton North : Caroline Nokes
    North Cotswolds: Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
    North Dorset: Simon Hoare

    All unlikely defectors I think.
    Indeed and less than 10% combined of the even relatively small current Tory parliamentary party, only ones I could see possibly going LD of those are Nokes and Hoare. Though if Cleverly replaced Badenoch as Tory leader after May I think even they would stay
    Some of those are very strange constituencies. Farnham (posh Surrey town) and Bordon (run down ex military town with a shitload of new housing) have very little in common, ditto Godalming (equally posh Surrey town) and Ash (suburb of Aldershot).
    Another bright idea from the Cameron days.
    The rules given to the boundary commission were such that some strange constituencies were unavoidable but there is no perfect solution.

    To create sensible (in your eyes) constituencies you would need constituencies of different sizes and should 1 person's vote be worth less than someone elses... The whole point of the last set of reforms was to ensure all constituencies were roughly 80-85,000 voters (don't remember the exact figure but I'm sure it's that).
    The Tories reduced the allowable margin (range) such that constituencies had to be more uniform than in all previous reviews. That is partly why there are so many peculiar seeming seats, as the wriggle room to make them more sensible was significantly removed.
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,262

    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    Looks like Reform will have to stop accepting dodgy money through cryptocurrency.

    I expect we’ll hear a load of whining about it being a witch hunt .

    Doesn't seem unreasonable to prevent political parties taking untraceable anonymous money, especially in an age of malign foreign powers trying to buy influence in our politics. You'd think Reform would want to be "whiter than white" in this regard (no joke intended) what with their former Welsh leader doing time for taing Russian bribes.
    On this subject, did we ever find out which who provided that big payment to the leave campaign that was channeled through Northern Ireland to disguise its source?
    Seems perfectly reasonable to me and, in spite of Nico’s Reform obsession it would affect all parties.

    Of course Labour also has its own issues with Russian influence as well.

    Brexit happened,get over it.
    You don't need to tell me that, I spent an hour in a security line at Frankfurt Airport yesterday! Gave me plenty of time to curse the MFs who voted for it...
    Odd that people choose not to blame the EU for the punishment beating needlessly applied
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,843
    An idea

    Turn over the entire UK sector in the North Sea to Statoil. Norwegian tax and development rules apply. The Norwegian government turns over the tax revenue to the UK, minus 10 percent for their efforts.
  • Will we see a tied poll by May?

    Tories and Reform on equal vote share has got to be likely.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,635

    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories are 1.6 percentage points behind the Greens in the latest polling average from ElectionMaps.

    https://electionmaps.uk/polling/vi

    1.4% ahead ???
    Thanks for the correction. Exciting times for the Greens to be so close to overtaking the most successful political party of recent decades and centuries.
  • Ash is a pretty nice area, it’s not like Aldershot. It’s a half way house.

    Bordon is a nothing place. An odd one.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,706
    edited 2:01PM

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2036747276421370354

    Sir Keir Starmer's national security adviser Jonathan Powell has been in talks with Wang Yi, China's foreign minister

    They have been talking about the need to 'deepen co-operation in all fields and to effectively manage disputes', Reuters reports

    Wang told Powell that 'all parties should avoid adding fuel to the first' on Iran

    It is worth noting that we only know about the fact of this visit through the Chinese state broadcaster CCTV

    There was no advance notice of the trip or briefing from the government at all

    What the actual effing eff?
    'Powell doing his job' shocker.
    Didn't realise his job was to make us a Chinese satrapy, but I suppose it makes a lot of sense.

    Pity the Chinese don't seem to share Sir Traitor's enthusiasm for the new detente, given that they sent him round the Forbidden City with a tourist guide because Xi couldn't be arsed. Perhaps they rightly realise they can give him orders without even an outward display of respect, and he'll take it.
    It's a tough complex world, with threats galore, but paranoid isolationism is not the way. We are Great. We are Britain. We do not cower at home and refuse to go out.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,870
    edited 2:02PM

    As I’ve said, drill the North Sea oil.

    Just don’t - as the Tories are - pretend it’s about energy bills.

    Tax revenue is not the argument they are making.

    You can actually make an argument that the tax can be either invested in more renewables or directly to reduce energy bills so it is a valid claim to the reduction of energy bills
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,262

    https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/2036780477718126770

    TFW Ed Miliband is running the government.

    image

    Well, I had to google what TFW means, Kemi, cos I'm not down with the kids like you.

    I do question the wisdom of her tweeting this sort of childish stuff out under her name rather than through the Central Office account. It speaks further to her lack of gravitas.
    So did I but I got Transformer world then something about train tickets.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,013
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    Looks like Reform will have to stop accepting dodgy money through cryptocurrency.

    I expect we’ll hear a load of whining about it being a witch hunt .

    Doesn't seem unreasonable to prevent political parties taking untraceable anonymous money, especially in an age of malign foreign powers trying to buy influence in our politics. You'd think Reform would want to be "whiter than white" in this regard (no joke intended) what with their former Welsh leader doing time for taing Russian bribes.
    On this subject, did we ever find out which who provided that big payment to the leave campaign that was channeled through Northern Ireland to disguise its source?
    Seems perfectly reasonable to me and, in spite of Nico’s Reform obsession it would affect all parties.

    Of course Labour also has its own issues with Russian influence as well.

    Brexit happened,get over it.
    You don't need to tell me that, I spent an hour in a security line at Frankfurt Airport yesterday! Gave me plenty of time to curse the MFs who voted for it...
    Odd that people choose not to blame the EU for the punishment beating needlessly applied
    IMHO we should not even consider attempting to rejoin until the EU has got over itself and accepted the democratic vote.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 966
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2036747276421370354

    Sir Keir Starmer's national security adviser Jonathan Powell has been in talks with Wang Yi, China's foreign minister

    They have been talking about the need to 'deepen co-operation in all fields and to effectively manage disputes', Reuters reports

    Wang told Powell that 'all parties should avoid adding fuel to the first' on Iran

    It is worth noting that we only know about the fact of this visit through the Chinese state broadcaster CCTV

    There was no advance notice of the trip or briefing from the government at all

    What the actual effing eff?
    'Powell doing his job' shocker.
    Didn't realise his job was to make us a Chinese satrapy, but I suppose it makes a lot of sense.

    Pity the Chinese don't seem to share Sir Traitor's enthusiasm for the new detente, given that they sent him round the Forbidden City with a tourist guide because Xi couldn't be arsed. Perhaps they rightly realise they can give him orders without even an outward display of respect, and he'll take it.
    It's a tough complex world, with threats galore, but paranoid isolationism is not the way. We are Great. We are Britain. We do not cower at home and refuse to go out.
    Plus, we have no permanent friends - only interests.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,654

    https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/2036780477718126770

    TFW Ed Miliband is running the government.

    image

    Well, I had to google what TFW means, Kemi, cos I'm not down with the kids like you.

    I do question the wisdom of her tweeting this sort of childish stuff out under her name rather than through the Central Office account. It speaks further to her lack of gravitas.
    You can always tell when Kemi's having a bad day. Keir replies to her like an errant schoolgirl. I switched on half way through and I instantly recognised what was happening.

    He's actually much more effective in that slightly patronising mode than when he gets angry. She's such a pouty head prefect it's very difficult to feel any empathy .
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,702
    AnneJGP said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    Looks like Reform will have to stop accepting dodgy money through cryptocurrency.

    I expect we’ll hear a load of whining about it being a witch hunt .

    Doesn't seem unreasonable to prevent political parties taking untraceable anonymous money, especially in an age of malign foreign powers trying to buy influence in our politics. You'd think Reform would want to be "whiter than white" in this regard (no joke intended) what with their former Welsh leader doing time for taing Russian bribes.
    On this subject, did we ever find out which who provided that big payment to the leave campaign that was channeled through Northern Ireland to disguise its source?
    Seems perfectly reasonable to me and, in spite of Nico’s Reform obsession it would affect all parties.

    Of course Labour also has its own issues with Russian influence as well.

    Brexit happened,get over it.
    You don't need to tell me that, I spent an hour in a security line at Frankfurt Airport yesterday! Gave me plenty of time to curse the MFs who voted for it...
    Odd that people choose not to blame the EU for the punishment beating needlessly applied
    IMHO we should not even consider attempting to rejoin until the EU has got over itself and accepted the democratic vote.
    They are treating as a non EEA, non-Shengen country. Isn't that what we voted for with Brexit?

    Same as Canada, Australia or India as far as the EU is concerned.

    If you don't like it you should aupport Rejoin.
  • I thought PMQs was piss poor all around.

    Badenoch had a woeful load of questions and Starmer had some poor answers. He should just make a call on North Sea oil himself and be done with it.

    However, Badenoch's judgment on the war has been horrendous. And for me that is not a good sign for her.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,635
    Lucky for us in the UK that we only need 2.5% of our energy to currently be provided by gas plants.

    https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,723
    Andrew isn’t letting this go.

    https://x.com/afneil/status/2036807281182900657
    It’s almost as if McSweeney deliberately misleading the police call handler to sow confusion.
    Says Belgrave Street, not Road. When call handler thinks it’s Belgrave Street in the East End and mentions Stepney, McSweeney does not correct the handler.
    Indeed he then confirms the thief turning at Stepney Green Park when the handler mentions that — knowing full well that couldn’t be true.


    https://x.com/afneil/status/2036798205602476072
    This whole McSweeney phone theft business is beginning to stink.
    The timing is incredibly convenient for a government that wants to cover up.
    Why did McSweeney report the theft to the police himself?Surely Downing Street security should have been immediately alerted — and they would handle it from there.
    Did McSweeney want to establish a record of him reporting it?
    Why did McSweeney never correct the police when it was clear they thought the theft had been in the East End and, of course, it happened in Westminster. Did McSweeney relish the confusion?
    Why did McSweeney not make clear the national security significance of it being his phone to the police? Was he worried they’d then take it seriously, unlike most phones thefts?
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,573
    AnneJGP said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    Looks like Reform will have to stop accepting dodgy money through cryptocurrency.

    I expect we’ll hear a load of whining about it being a witch hunt .

    Doesn't seem unreasonable to prevent political parties taking untraceable anonymous money, especially in an age of malign foreign powers trying to buy influence in our politics. You'd think Reform would want to be "whiter than white" in this regard (no joke intended) what with their former Welsh leader doing time for taing Russian bribes.
    On this subject, did we ever find out which who provided that big payment to the leave campaign that was channeled through Northern Ireland to disguise its source?
    Seems perfectly reasonable to me and, in spite of Nico’s Reform obsession it would affect all parties.

    Of course Labour also has its own issues with Russian influence as well.

    Brexit happened,get over it.
    You don't need to tell me that, I spent an hour in a security line at Frankfurt Airport yesterday! Gave me plenty of time to curse the MFs who voted for it...
    Odd that people choose not to blame the EU for the punishment beating needlessly applied
    IMHO we should not even consider attempting to rejoin until the EU has got over itself and accepted the democratic vote.
    It did, we left and it treats us as the 3rd country we voted to be, with some extra advantages.

    What is it with leavers? It's like resigning from your golf club, stopping your membership fees and then getting all upset when they kindly request that you stop playing on the course.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,094
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    Looks like Reform will have to stop accepting dodgy money through cryptocurrency.

    I expect we’ll hear a load of whining about it being a witch hunt .

    Doesn't seem unreasonable to prevent political parties taking untraceable anonymous money, especially in an age of malign foreign powers trying to buy influence in our politics. You'd think Reform would want to be "whiter than white" in this regard (no joke intended) what with their former Welsh leader doing time for taing Russian bribes.
    On this subject, did we ever find out which who provided that big payment to the leave campaign that was channeled through Northern Ireland to disguise its source?
    Seems perfectly reasonable to me and, in spite of Nico’s Reform obsession it would affect all parties.

    Of course Labour also has its own issues with Russian influence as well.

    Brexit happened,get over it.
    You don't need to tell me that, I spent an hour in a security line at Frankfurt Airport yesterday! Gave me plenty of time to curse the MFs who voted for it...
    Odd that people choose not to blame the EU for the punishment beating needlessly applied
    Oh don't worry I'm pissed off with them too! Although of course they are not singling us out for punishment, they are just failing to give us special treatment which is annoying but not something we can insist on.
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,262

    As I’ve said, drill the North Sea oil.

    Just don’t - as the Tories are - pretend it’s about energy bills.

    Tax revenue is not the argument they are making.

    It’s not just the Tories.

    Whenever you suggest it here there’s always someone to offer their worthless insight that it won’t reduce bills, totally ignoring you didn’t claim it would !!
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,262

    I thought PMQs was piss poor all around.

    Badenoch had a woeful load of questions and Starmer had some poor answers. He should just make a call on North Sea oil himself and be done with it.

    However, Badenoch's judgment on the war has been horrendous. And for me that is not a good sign for her.

    I’m not surprised. I don’t watch it.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,893
    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    MelonB said:

    Electricity grid news: I think we are currently beating the all time record for renewables generation: over 30gw - 23.79 wind, 8.4 solar.

    Good timing for some bright breezy days considering the price and availability of gas.

    https://grid.iamkate.com/

    Don’t think I’ve ever seen gas that low at 1.2GW.
    But we are still importing 6.4% of our energy. We really need to close that gap and become a net exporter on days like this. (It was snowing in Aberdeen this morning).
    I think it's the SE of England that's importing the energy across the channel. It all ties in to not having the grid infrastructure to get Scottish wind energy down to London, so we have to power London with French nuclear power.

    So the question is why the grid infrastructure wasn't upgraded years ago, and the answer is the normal thing about short term profits, skimping on investment, a seeming inability to anticipate the future, infrastructure projects taking ages, etc.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,706
    Unpopular said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2036747276421370354

    Sir Keir Starmer's national security adviser Jonathan Powell has been in talks with Wang Yi, China's foreign minister

    They have been talking about the need to 'deepen co-operation in all fields and to effectively manage disputes', Reuters reports

    Wang told Powell that 'all parties should avoid adding fuel to the first' on Iran

    It is worth noting that we only know about the fact of this visit through the Chinese state broadcaster CCTV

    There was no advance notice of the trip or briefing from the government at all

    What the actual effing eff?
    'Powell doing his job' shocker.
    Didn't realise his job was to make us a Chinese satrapy, but I suppose it makes a lot of sense.

    Pity the Chinese don't seem to share Sir Traitor's enthusiasm for the new detente, given that they sent him round the Forbidden City with a tourist guide because Xi couldn't be arsed. Perhaps they rightly realise they can give him orders without even an outward display of respect, and he'll take it.
    It's a tough complex world, with threats galore, but paranoid isolationism is not the way. We are Great. We are Britain. We do not cower at home and refuse to go out.
    Plus, we have no permanent friends - only interests.
    The USA falling into the hands of Donald Trump certainly brings that aphorism to life.
  • Taz said:

    As I’ve said, drill the North Sea oil.

    Just don’t - as the Tories are - pretend it’s about energy bills.

    Tax revenue is not the argument they are making.

    It’s not just the Tories.

    Whenever you suggest it here there’s always someone to offer their worthless insight that it won’t reduce bills, totally ignoring you didn’t claim it would !!
    The arguments made on this forum make perfect sense to me. But seemingly no politician is making them.

    Badenoch has space here. Reform just thinks climate change is a hoax.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,230

    As I’ve said, drill the North Sea oil.

    Just don’t - as the Tories are - pretend it’s about energy bills.

    Tax revenue is not the argument they are making.

    It's also not much about tax revenue. The complaint is that government is overtaxing North Sea oil and discouraging exploitation. So the intention is to reduce tax per barrel but maybe compensate by enabling more oil to be extracted.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,845
    Meanwhile, from Team Iran - this is a brilliant piece of propaganda

    https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2036777835541487657
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,723
    Apparently the Iranians are preparing ground takeovers of UAE and Bahrain.

    https://x.com/megatron_ron/status/2036770837303271724

    I’m a long way away from being worried by this crap.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,637
    On the last thread, @Alanbrooke blamed the UK's low birthrate on its 300,000 abortions per year.

    So, I wonderd... is there a correlation between abortion legality and birthrates?

    The three European countries -as far as I can tell- with the tightest laws on abortion are: Malta, Poland and Andorra.

    In Malta, abortions are only available in the event of imminent danger to the mother's life. In Poland, abortion laws were really tightened up in 2020. And in Andorra they are basically completely illegal.

    Malta has a TFR of 1.01. That's significantly worse than the UK. Andorra's TFR isn't much better, it's 1.09.

    What about Poland... you'd expect it's TFR to have improved post the tightening of abortion controls, right?

    Wrong. Their TFR remains mired at all time lows. In 2024, they had the fewest live births (240,000) in the post WW2 period.

    And some of the countries with the least restrictive abortion laws (Bulgaria, France and Ireland) have some of the highest TFRs.

    Basically: abortion access and legality don't seem to have any correlation with birthrates.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,637
    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    Quite an interesting video from Wheels for Wellbeing explaining why Chicane Barriers at the end of footpaths and cycle tracks are a bad thing, and destroy undermine accessibility and safety. 12 minutes.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umI9Z0JW2Vs

    Do they address the reasons these barriers are there in the first place, which is a small number of very antisocial youth on bikes and motorbikes making the paths unusable for pedestrians? Is there a compromise solution? Also bikes running straight into the road at the end, to be collected by a car.
    They date back to before the antisocial youth on ebikes and motorbikes, surely?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,229
    Foxy said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    Looks like Reform will have to stop accepting dodgy money through cryptocurrency.

    I expect we’ll hear a load of whining about it being a witch hunt .

    Doesn't seem unreasonable to prevent political parties taking untraceable anonymous money, especially in an age of malign foreign powers trying to buy influence in our politics. You'd think Reform would want to be "whiter than white" in this regard (no joke intended) what with their former Welsh leader doing time for taing Russian bribes.
    On this subject, did we ever find out which who provided that big payment to the leave campaign that was channeled through Northern Ireland to disguise its source?
    Seems perfectly reasonable to me and, in spite of Nico’s Reform obsession it would affect all parties.

    Of course Labour also has its own issues with Russian influence as well.

    Brexit happened,get over it.
    You don't need to tell me that, I spent an hour in a security line at Frankfurt Airport yesterday! Gave me plenty of time to curse the MFs who voted for it...
    Odd that people choose not to blame the EU for the punishment beating needlessly applied
    IMHO we should not even consider attempting to rejoin until the EU has got over itself and accepted the democratic vote.
    They are treating as a non EEA, non-Shengen country. Isn't that what we voted for with Brexit?

    Same as Canada, Australia or India as far as the EU is concerned.

    If you don't like it you should aupport Rejoin.
    No. They., or at least elements of the EU, are looking to punish the UK for having the temerity to leave.

    As an example look to the cost of Canada joining the SAFE rearmament programme (€10 million) compared to the price asked of the UK (between €4 billion and €6 billion)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,637
    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brixian59 said:

    If Katie Lam is the future of anything then they are truly fucked.

    Personally I think the next Tory defection will be to LD in a strong LD area, from a moderate one nation Tory who is unable to accept Badenoch death March right right right.

    There aren't many Tory MPs from strong LD areas left though, most LD leaning areas in the likes of Surrey and Oxfordshire and Hertfordshire and Berkshire already went LD at the 2024 general election. The few who did hold on in those areas like Hunt will stay Tory regardless
    Here are the possible LD gains and the Tory candidates for defection to LDs:

    East Hampshire: Damian Hinds
    Farnham and Bordon: Gregory Stafford
    Godalming and Ash : Sir Jeremy Hunt
    Hamble Valley: Paul Holmes
    Romsey and Southampton North : Caroline Nokes
    North Cotswolds: Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
    North Dorset: Simon Hoare

    All unlikely defectors I think.
    Indeed and less than 10% combined of the even relatively small current Tory parliamentary party, only ones I could see possibly going LD of those are Nokes and Hoare. Though if Cleverly replaced Badenoch as Tory leader after May I think even they would stay
    Some of those are very strange constituencies. Farnham (posh Surrey town) and Bordon (run down ex military town with a shitload of new housing) have very little in common, ditto Godalming (equally posh Surrey town) and Ash (suburb of Aldershot).
    Another bright idea from the Cameron days.
    The rules given to the boundary commission were such that some strange constituencies were unavoidable but there is no perfect solution.

    To create sensible (in your eyes) constituencies you would need constituencies of different sizes and should 1 person's vote be worth less than someone elses... The whole point of the last set of reforms was to ensure all constituencies were roughly 80-85,000 voters (don't remember the exact figure but I'm sure it's that).
    Ah hem... almost all constituencies. There were -IIRC- three exceptions based around geographical isolation and spread.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,723
    edited 2:35PM
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    Quite an interesting video from Wheels for Wellbeing explaining why Chicane Barriers at the end of footpaths and cycle tracks are a bad thing, and destroy undermine accessibility and safety. 12 minutes.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umI9Z0JW2Vs

    Do they address the reasons these barriers are there in the first place, which is a small number of very antisocial youth on bikes and motorbikes making the paths unusable for pedestrians? Is there a compromise solution? Also bikes running straight into the road at the end, to be collected by a car.
    They date back to before the antisocial youth on ebikes and motorbikes, surely?
    Not e-bikes, regular bicycles.

    My memory is that most of the barriers were put there in the ‘80s, because of arsehole cyclists on narrow walkways between roads in new estates.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,637
    @Sandpit

    You shared Tweet and map about skipping the Straits of Hormuz was a good one. I can't help feel that a backup pipeline or two could be built suprisingly quickly if people put their minds to it. Now, it wouldn't be able to completely eliminate dependence on the Straits (not least because one needs ports as well as pipes), but it's empty desert, and one could probably get one done to the East of the Straits in six to nine months.

    Likewise, expanding Saudi Arabia's export pipelines (Petroline to the Red Sea, and Tapline to Turkey and the Med) -while a longer term project- could be done in a year or two.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,748
    MattW said:

    Who will be the first Tory to Reform UK defector to reverse feret?

    Bugger. Feret / ferret.
  • I think in all honesty rejoin would be a terrible idea.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,637
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    Quite an interesting video from Wheels for Wellbeing explaining why Chicane Barriers at the end of footpaths and cycle tracks are a bad thing, and destroy undermine accessibility and safety. 12 minutes.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umI9Z0JW2Vs

    Do they address the reasons these barriers are there in the first place, which is a small number of very antisocial youth on bikes and motorbikes making the paths unusable for pedestrians? Is there a compromise solution? Also bikes running straight into the road at the end, to be collected by a car.
    They date back to before the antisocial youth on ebikes and motorbikes, surely?
    Not e-bikes, regular bicycles.
    Fair enough.

    Also, I suspect to protect pedestrians agains MAMILs travelling too fast on mixed use paths. (Something which is much less of an issue now, given that bikelines are so much more prevalent.)
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,402
    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brixian59 said:

    If Katie Lam is the future of anything then they are truly fucked.

    Personally I think the next Tory defection will be to LD in a strong LD area, from a moderate one nation Tory who is unable to accept Badenoch death March right right right.

    There aren't many Tory MPs from strong LD areas left though, most LD leaning areas in the likes of Surrey and Oxfordshire and Hertfordshire and Berkshire already went LD at the 2024 general election. The few who did hold on in those areas like Hunt will stay Tory regardless
    Here are the possible LD gains and the Tory candidates for defection to LDs:

    East Hampshire: Damian Hinds
    Farnham and Bordon: Gregory Stafford
    Godalming and Ash : Sir Jeremy Hunt
    Hamble Valley: Paul Holmes
    Romsey and Southampton North : Caroline Nokes
    North Cotswolds: Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
    North Dorset: Simon Hoare

    All unlikely defectors I think.
    Indeed and less than 10% combined of the even relatively small current Tory parliamentary party, only ones I could see possibly going LD of those are Nokes and Hoare. Though if Cleverly replaced Badenoch as Tory leader after May I think even they would stay
    Some of those are very strange constituencies. Farnham (posh Surrey town) and Bordon (run down ex military town with a shitload of new housing) have very little in common, ditto Godalming (equally posh Surrey town) and Ash (suburb of Aldershot).
    Another bright idea from the Cameron days.
    The rules given to the boundary commission were such that some strange constituencies were unavoidable but there is no perfect solution.

    To create sensible (in your eyes) constituencies you would need constituencies of different sizes and should 1 person's vote be worth less than someone elses... The whole point of the last set of reforms was to ensure all constituencies were roughly 80-85,000 voters (don't remember the exact figure but I'm sure it's that).
    Ah hem... almost all constituencies. There were -IIRC- three exceptions based around geographical isolation and spread.
    4, Orkney/Shetland, Western isles, Ynys Mon, and isle of Wight.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,723
    edited 2:40PM
    rcs1000 said:

    @Sandpit

    You shared Tweet and map about skipping the Straits of Hormuz was a good one. I can't help feel that a backup pipeline or two could be built suprisingly quickly if people put their minds to it. Now, it wouldn't be able to completely eliminate dependence on the Straits (not least because one needs ports as well as pipes), but it's empty desert, and one could probably get one done to the East of the Straits in six to nine months.

    Likewise, expanding Saudi Arabia's export pipelines (Petroline to the Red Sea, and Tapline to Turkey and the Med) -while a longer term project- could be done in a year or two.

    I literally drove past it today, there’s a concerted effort to get thousands of containers across the Gulf by road.

    https://x.com/salwashahi/status/2036581825800446410

    The Saudi pipeline was basically dormant until a couple of weeks ago, and can now get 5m barrels a day out into the Red Sea.

    As for a new pipeline, it would probably be easy so long as the enemy couldn’t bomb the construction sites.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 54,608
    It's snowing!
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,402

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brixian59 said:

    If Katie Lam is the future of anything then they are truly fucked.

    Personally I think the next Tory defection will be to LD in a strong LD area, from a moderate one nation Tory who is unable to accept Badenoch death March right right right.

    There aren't many Tory MPs from strong LD areas left though, most LD leaning areas in the likes of Surrey and Oxfordshire and Hertfordshire and Berkshire already went LD at the 2024 general election. The few who did hold on in those areas like Hunt will stay Tory regardless
    Here are the possible LD gains and the Tory candidates for defection to LDs:

    East Hampshire: Damian Hinds
    Farnham and Bordon: Gregory Stafford
    Godalming and Ash : Sir Jeremy Hunt
    Hamble Valley: Paul Holmes
    Romsey and Southampton North : Caroline Nokes
    North Cotswolds: Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
    North Dorset: Simon Hoare

    All unlikely defectors I think.
    Indeed and less than 10% combined of the even relatively small current Tory parliamentary party, only ones I could see possibly going LD of those are Nokes and Hoare. Though if Cleverly replaced Badenoch as Tory leader after May I think even they would stay
    Some of those are very strange constituencies. Farnham (posh Surrey town) and Bordon (run down ex military town with a shitload of new housing) have very little in common, ditto Godalming (equally posh Surrey town) and Ash (suburb of Aldershot).
    Another bright idea from the Cameron days.
    The rules given to the boundary commission were such that some strange constituencies were unavoidable but there is no perfect solution.

    To create sensible (in your eyes) constituencies you would need constituencies of different sizes and should 1 person's vote be worth less than someone elses... The whole point of the last set of reforms was to ensure all constituencies were roughly 80-85,000 voters (don't remember the exact figure but I'm sure it's that).
    Ah hem... almost all constituencies. There were -IIRC- three exceptions based around geographical isolation and spread.
    4, Orkney/Shetland, Western isles, Ynys Mon, and isle of Wight.
    Correction, 5, Isle of Wight is split into 2.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,637

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brixian59 said:

    If Katie Lam is the future of anything then they are truly fucked.

    Personally I think the next Tory defection will be to LD in a strong LD area, from a moderate one nation Tory who is unable to accept Badenoch death March right right right.

    There aren't many Tory MPs from strong LD areas left though, most LD leaning areas in the likes of Surrey and Oxfordshire and Hertfordshire and Berkshire already went LD at the 2024 general election. The few who did hold on in those areas like Hunt will stay Tory regardless
    Here are the possible LD gains and the Tory candidates for defection to LDs:

    East Hampshire: Damian Hinds
    Farnham and Bordon: Gregory Stafford
    Godalming and Ash : Sir Jeremy Hunt
    Hamble Valley: Paul Holmes
    Romsey and Southampton North : Caroline Nokes
    North Cotswolds: Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
    North Dorset: Simon Hoare

    All unlikely defectors I think.
    Indeed and less than 10% combined of the even relatively small current Tory parliamentary party, only ones I could see possibly going LD of those are Nokes and Hoare. Though if Cleverly replaced Badenoch as Tory leader after May I think even they would stay
    Some of those are very strange constituencies. Farnham (posh Surrey town) and Bordon (run down ex military town with a shitload of new housing) have very little in common, ditto Godalming (equally posh Surrey town) and Ash (suburb of Aldershot).
    Another bright idea from the Cameron days.
    The rules given to the boundary commission were such that some strange constituencies were unavoidable but there is no perfect solution.

    To create sensible (in your eyes) constituencies you would need constituencies of different sizes and should 1 person's vote be worth less than someone elses... The whole point of the last set of reforms was to ensure all constituencies were roughly 80-85,000 voters (don't remember the exact figure but I'm sure it's that).
    Ah hem... almost all constituencies. There were -IIRC- three exceptions based around geographical isolation and spread.
    4, Orkney/Shetland, Western isles, Ynys Mon, and isle of Wight.
    One LibDem; one SNP; one PC; one Conservative and one Labour.

    That feels almost deliberate :smile:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 127,085

    NEW THREAD

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,094

    Foxy said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    Looks like Reform will have to stop accepting dodgy money through cryptocurrency.

    I expect we’ll hear a load of whining about it being a witch hunt .

    Doesn't seem unreasonable to prevent political parties taking untraceable anonymous money, especially in an age of malign foreign powers trying to buy influence in our politics. You'd think Reform would want to be "whiter than white" in this regard (no joke intended) what with their former Welsh leader doing time for taing Russian bribes.
    On this subject, did we ever find out which who provided that big payment to the leave campaign that was channeled through Northern Ireland to disguise its source?
    Seems perfectly reasonable to me and, in spite of Nico’s Reform obsession it would affect all parties.

    Of course Labour also has its own issues with Russian influence as well.

    Brexit happened,get over it.
    You don't need to tell me that, I spent an hour in a security line at Frankfurt Airport yesterday! Gave me plenty of time to curse the MFs who voted for it...
    Odd that people choose not to blame the EU for the punishment beating needlessly applied
    IMHO we should not even consider attempting to rejoin until the EU has got over itself and accepted the democratic vote.
    They are treating as a non EEA, non-Shengen country. Isn't that what we voted for with Brexit?

    Same as Canada, Australia or India as far as the EU is concerned.

    If you don't like it you should aupport Rejoin.
    No. They., or at least elements of the EU, are looking to punish the UK for having the temerity to leave.

    As an example look to the cost of Canada joining the SAFE rearmament programme (€10 million) compared to the price asked of the UK (between €4 billion and €6 billion)
    There is certainly an element of that and it's irritating and petty and absurd. But I think a lot of it is about using whatever leverage they have to gain advantages over a competitor. A lot of the impetus for this comes from France, which sees the UK as a major competitor and will use whatever levers it has at ts disposal to gain an advantage. One of their biggest levers is being in the EU single market, while we are not. They will use this lever mercilessly. They don't view Canada in those terms, because it is much more geographically distant, and so less of a threat, and so of course Canada gets a better deal.
    There is no point thinking of this as an emotional sort of thing, eg "punishment beatings". It is about strategic competition. Brexit was sold as our opportunity to gain a competitive advantage by being outside of the EU. So of course they are seeking to protect to themselves from this competition. We should treat this behaviour as an example of rational self interest on their part, not some kind of emotional outburst that we can tame by appealing to reason.
  • No. They., or at least elements of the EU, are looking to punish the UK for having the temerity to leave.

    As an example look to the cost of Canada joining the SAFE rearmament programme (€10 million) compared to the price asked of the UK (between €4 billion and €6 billion)

    Many in the UK don't grasp how the EU apparatus regards Brexit, because we often took a transactional view of our EU membership. To them it was a gross insult, a stinging rebuke of their ideology and a humiliation. It also cracked the wall of inevitability surrounding 'ever closer union'. Punishment has to be delivered, and be seen to be delivered, to make sure no current member ever considers taking the same path.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,714
    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brixian59 said:

    If Katie Lam is the future of anything then they are truly fucked.

    Personally I think the next Tory defection will be to LD in a strong LD area, from a moderate one nation Tory who is unable to accept Badenoch death March right right right.

    There aren't many Tory MPs from strong LD areas left though, most LD leaning areas in the likes of Surrey and Oxfordshire and Hertfordshire and Berkshire already went LD at the 2024 general election. The few who did hold on in those areas like Hunt will stay Tory regardless
    Here are the possible LD gains and the Tory candidates for defection to LDs:

    East Hampshire: Damian Hinds
    Farnham and Bordon: Gregory Stafford
    Godalming and Ash : Sir Jeremy Hunt
    Hamble Valley: Paul Holmes
    Romsey and Southampton North : Caroline Nokes
    North Cotswolds: Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
    North Dorset: Simon Hoare

    All unlikely defectors I think.
    Indeed and less than 10% combined of the even relatively small current Tory parliamentary party, only ones I could see possibly going LD of those are Nokes and Hoare. Though if Cleverly replaced Badenoch as Tory leader after May I think even they would stay
    Some of those are very strange constituencies. Farnham (posh Surrey town) and Bordon (run down ex military town with a shitload of new housing) have very little in common, ditto Godalming (equally posh Surrey town) and Ash (suburb of Aldershot).
    Another bright idea from the Cameron days.
    The rules given to the boundary commission were such that some strange constituencies were unavoidable but there is no perfect solution.

    To create sensible (in your eyes) constituencies you would need constituencies of different sizes and should 1 person's vote be worth less than someone elses... The whole point of the last set of reforms was to ensure all constituencies were roughly 80-85,000 voters (don't remember the exact figure but I'm sure it's that).
    They reduced the leeway from +- 8.5% from the mean to +- 5%.
    At the same time increasing the number of "protected" constituencies which are wildly out of whack from 2 to 5.
    There was nothing wrong with the 8.5% variance. The whole reasoning was to counter Labour's supposed greater vote efficiency. Which disappeared before the legislation was finalised.
    Leaving the current dog's breakfast.
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,262
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    Quite an interesting video from Wheels for Wellbeing explaining why Chicane Barriers at the end of footpaths and cycle tracks are a bad thing, and destroy undermine accessibility and safety. 12 minutes.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umI9Z0JW2Vs

    Do they address the reasons these barriers are there in the first place, which is a small number of very antisocial youth on bikes and motorbikes making the paths unusable for pedestrians? Is there a compromise solution? Also bikes running straight into the road at the end, to be collected by a car.
    They date back to before the antisocial youth on ebikes and motorbikes, surely?
    Not e-bikes, regular bicycles.

    My memory is that most of the barriers were put there in the ‘80s, because of arsehole cyclists on narrow walkways between roads in new estates.
    The scum are on bikes like Sur-Ron’s
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,654

    Meanwhile, from Team Iran - this is a brilliant piece of propaganda

    https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2036777835541487657

    The moral of the story is don't mess with 5000 year old civilisations when you've got a moron in charge because everything they do will be smarter than what you're doing.

    I thought it was great.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,235
    rcs1000 said:

    On the last thread, @Alanbrooke blamed the UK's low birthrate on its 300,000 abortions per year.

    So, I wonderd... is there a correlation between abortion legality and birthrates?

    The three European countries -as far as I can tell- with the tightest laws on abortion are: Malta, Poland and Andorra.

    In Malta, abortions are only available in the event of imminent danger to the mother's life. In Poland, abortion laws were really tightened up in 2020. And in Andorra they are basically completely illegal.

    Malta has a TFR of 1.01. That's significantly worse than the UK. Andorra's TFR isn't much better, it's 1.09.

    What about Poland... you'd expect it's TFR to have improved post the tightening of abortion controls, right?

    Wrong. Their TFR remains mired at all time lows. In 2024, they had the fewest live births (240,000) in the post WW2 period.

    And some of the countries with the least restrictive abortion laws (Bulgaria, France and Ireland) have some of the highest TFRs.

    Basically: abortion access and legality don't seem to have any correlation with birthrates.

    What a stupid piece of analysis.

    I didnt say abortion caused the demographic collapse. Thats down to easily accessible contraception, women delaying when to start a family and in the UK lpoliciies which dont support families.

    I simply pointed out that murdering 300000 children a year doesnt help population growth. Which is of course true otherwise we would have an extra 7 million citizens in the country since 2000..
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 58,437
    Roger said:

    Meanwhile, from Team Iran - this is a brilliant piece of propaganda

    https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2036777835541487657

    The moral of the story is don't mess with 5000 year old civilisations when you've got a moron in charge because everything they do will be smarter than what you're doing.

    I thought it was great.
    Made using American AI.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,748
    edited 3:02PM
    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    Quite an interesting video from Wheels for Wellbeing explaining why Chicane Barriers at the end of footpaths and cycle tracks are a bad thing, and destroy undermine accessibility and safety. 12 minutes.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umI9Z0JW2Vs

    Do they address the reasons these barriers are there in the first place, which is a small number of very antisocial youth on bikes and motorbikes making the paths unusable for pedestrians? Is there a compromise solution? Also bikes running straight into the road at the end, to be collected by a car.
    That's a bit of a red herring. Such a chicane does not block motorcycles or cycles, and are essentially unlawful, and a litigation risk for whoever installs it. A motorbike is smaller, and more manoeuvrable, than a mobility scooter or some powerchairs, so how could they without blocking lawful path users?

    It also not usually how it works.

    They are typically installed not because there is a problem, but because someone believes there is a problem, or might be a problem. That is a concept I call "Shrodinger's ASBO Cyclist / Motorcyclist".

    And when something is put in, and no problem continues to exist, that is then assumed to be the reason no problem exists, and there grows an irrational attachment to it. So trying to get it out again can be a bugger. Local Councillors can see them as an easy, relatively inexpensive, visible to voters, answer, so they like them.

    Can you imagine such a thing being built on a busy side road/main road junction if there was a "pulling out of a sideroad" collision?

    Guidance requires the least restrictive option, requires evidence that an issue exists, and supplies a hierarchy, but there are no time, no money, no knowledge and no training, so these get whacked in - often even when a eg a new estate is built.

    The bald case is that they are not lawful, and do not do help anyway to any degree. We have remarks by the Supreme Court with a judgement that excluding lawful users is not a reasonable compromise for keeping unlawful ones out, and motorbikes etc are a matter for police enforcement.

    The vid covers the safety risks such a barrier at a mobility track / road junction imposes and increases.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,652
    IanB2 said:

    It's snowing!

    Had a few seconds of hail earlier here, but teeny pieces.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 54,608

    IanB2 said:

    It's snowing!

    Had a few seconds of hail earlier here, but teeny pieces.
    It's sunny 11C now; that was a strange flurry of snowflakes, back there
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,134
    rcs1000 said:

    @Sandpit

    You shared Tweet and map about skipping the Straits of Hormuz was a good one. I can't help feel that a backup pipeline or two could be built suprisingly quickly if people put their minds to it. Now, it wouldn't be able to completely eliminate dependence on the Straits (not least because one needs ports as well as pipes), but it's empty desert, and one could probably get one done to the East of the Straits in six to nine months.

    Likewise, expanding Saudi Arabia's export pipelines (Petroline to the Red Sea, and Tapline to Turkey and the Med) -while a longer term project- could be done in a year or two.

    The gulf states have preferred to waste their money on sports washing.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,055

    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    MelonB said:

    Electricity grid news: I think we are currently beating the all time record for renewables generation: over 30gw - 23.79 wind, 8.4 solar.

    Good timing for some bright breezy days considering the price and availability of gas.

    https://grid.iamkate.com/

    Don’t think I’ve ever seen gas that low at 1.2GW.
    But we are still importing 6.4% of our energy. We really need to close that gap and become a net exporter on days like this. (It was snowing in Aberdeen this morning).
    I think it's the SE of England that's importing the energy across the channel. It all ties in to not having the grid infrastructure to get Scottish wind energy down to London, so we have to power London with French nuclear power.

    So the question is why the grid infrastructure wasn't upgraded years ago, and the answer is the normal thing about short term profits, skimping on investment, a seeming inability to anticipate the future, infrastructure projects taking ages, etc.
    We get covered in windmills so that London can get cheaper electricity and we pay much higher prices for the privilege and now you also want huge numbers of pylons to boot , what mugs we are being treated like shit.
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