The next defector – politicalbetting.com
The next defector – politicalbetting.com
Who will be the next Conservative MP to defect to Reform UK? Esther McVey is currently 4/1 second favourite in the bettinghttps://t.co/hgrDgDDIaj https://t.co/hYgB8G5GR4
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If we're really lucky we might even get a de facto lockdown
Huge energy price rises pile pressure on British companies
Warning of businesses going under as cost of gas set to rise by as much as 80 per cent, while electricity bills to increase by up to 30 per cent
Businesses across the UK are facing “eye-watering” rises in their energy bills because of the conflict in the Middle East, analysis for The Times suggests.
Unlike households, companies are not insulated from volatility in gas and electricity prices, which have almost doubled since the Iran war began.
The problem is particularly acute for the thousands of companies that fix their annual price tariff at the start of the financial year in April and will face an immediate sharp rise in their bills.
Analysis by the energy consultancy Cornwall Insight found that as a result of the conflict, business users’ electricity bills would rise by up to 30 per cent, while the cost of gas could go up by as much as 80 per cent. This would mean that a business such as a larger retail and leisure site, on an average 12-month electricity contract, would have an annual bill of £578,000 — £95,000 more than early last month.
For gas, bills have risen by £376,000, reaching just over £1.02 million a year, an increase of nearly 60 per cent, based on the latest wholesale prices.
On Tuesday Wael Sawan, the chief executive of Shell, warned that Europe risked fuel shortages as soon as next month. At an industry conference in Houston, Texas, he said the global oil and gas supply squeeze had already forced parts of Asia to cut energy consumption and that the “ripple effect” threatened to spread west within days.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/huge-energy-price-rises-pile-pressure-on-british-companies-6w9m0j0xk
FYI
https://x.com/ferroxghilie/status/2036617093504745497?s=46&t=fJymV-V84rexmlQMLXHHJQ
My reaction is generally disgust as I really don't need those images in my head.
The really bad news, as we saw after SMO inflation, is an upsurge in calls by misguided but influential pundits for tightening the money supply and higher interest rates to curb inflation. Idiots!
That’s right folks: Change UK
On the larger picture it suggests Offord is shit at reading an audience, a bit of a disadvantage for an aspiring politician.
As you said, exactly the same problem in 2022: people who should know better failing to distinguish between home grown demand driven inflation and external supply shocks.
Never. Why would she spend so long in cultivating the Maggie Thatcher Tribute Act to waste all that work. She's the future of the Conservatives. [Insert Kemi is a dud here]
Dependent entirely on the whim of a few individuals, and prone to insider betting.
I don't rule it out, as ego could mean you think you are taking your personal brand with you to Reform, and believing your personal brand will be untarnished in a posh area by association with Reform.
I think that would be an error of judgement additional to the primary error of joining with Farage in the first place.
Personally I think the next Tory defection will be to LD in a strong LD area, from a moderate one nation Tory who is unable to accept Badenoch death March right right right.
A quick reel can damage a politician when they make a reverse ferret on something so profound.
The Bank of London Group misled the banking watchdog and ‘failed to act with integrity’
A start-up bank whose board of directors previously included Lord Mandelson and a top Wall Street banker has been fined for misleading the regulator, including by fabricating documents about its finances.
The Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) has fined The Bank of London Group Limited and a parent company £2 million for failing to act with integrity, failing to be open and co-operative and failing to maintain adequate financial resources. It was also found to have misled officials over their capital positions.
The breaches warranted a £12 million fine, but the fine was reduced because it would have caused “serious financial hardship”.
https://www.thetimes.com/business/companies-markets/article/bank-lord-mandelson-fabricating-finances-fl56qlt9f
& Bibi”.
Response Fuck you Trump & Bibi.
Has anyone seen Taz and Iran in same room!
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/24/us/politics/saudi-prince-iran-trump.html?unlocked_article_code=1.VlA.tGWI.AzAFt1X9Mtfi&smid=url-share
Absolutely insane that a corrupt Trump family member, with no official government position, and having recently received $2bn in Saudi funding for his business, is one of the two lead negotiators with Iran.
Internet's been iffy. If there's no Japan stuff this will be why.
I include myself in this. We save for emergencies so can weather this out. We do huge mileage each year, but a lot of that is social, weekend driving that we can cut back on. We don’t need any help from the government.
OTOH , we don’t use much gas because we live in an energy-efficient flat, appropriate for two young-ish adults. I’m not sure why people like me should bail out those in big, detached houses. They’ve made their choice.
The reality is that if a business can’t operate profitability at a given level of energy prices and that level is sustained then the business should shut down and the capital be redeployed
https://x.com/oldgassy1984/status/2036538652969374032?s=61
However, if those energy prices hit next week no amount of future investment in energy savings will prevent both huge price rises and many lost jobs
This is a very serious crisis that has nightmare implications for all governments
But Reform are no better calling for Jo Brand to be cancelled over a joke about Farage and battery acid. Again context is what matters.
Katie Lam has an air of unquantifiable strangeness about her like Mary out of Corrie.
Good morning, everyone.
As with my father's WFA that money went to the Trussell Trust but I am sure others weren't as generous as me.
OGH used to make a point of using his WFA to top up his Betfair account to point out the absurdity of it, sadly since the bank bailouts, everybody wants to get bailed out when things get bad.
Even if some humourless wokery goes too far, some of it happened for a damn good reason.
How long from now will it be before a poll fails to give Reform a lead? And will it be before the May elections?
I agree that govt bailing us all out is not the solution
But govt needs also to put in place policies that are pro business and help business, not fuck them over or leave business vulnerable to the whims of the Middle East.
And it’s not just renewables. We need oil and gas whether we like it or not.
With that I’m off to take an old friend, my bike, off for its final journey.
AEP being even bleaker than usual this morning in Telegraph about all this.
"The International Energy Agency (IEA) says 40 energy assets have been “severely or very severely damaged” across nine countries."
"Trump had better do a deal with the Iranians by Friday or soon after – if he can find any interlocutor whom he has not yet killed, maimed or outed prematurely. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed for another month, it is game, set and match to the Russo-Chinese axis."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/03/25/china-has-already-won-the-gulf-war/
My grandparents downsized and then later went into sheltered housing to convert their wealth into income (and reduce their expenses). But they were public and family minded people who took personal responsibility for their finances and care needs. This country needs more people like them rather than the kind of grasper you want to protect.
A positive start to the day.
But you could be right.
So exactly what has the Government done wrong because we are shifting to renewables far faster than anyone thought we would.
https://x.com/White_Rabbit_OG/status/2036495245005721968
If we’re going to help businesses, a universal cut in business rates, employer NICs would be the best option.
Andrew Snowden MP 🇬🇧
@A_J_Snowden
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4m
So, bets on PMQs this week?
Kemi: When did you find out Morgan McSweeneys phone had been stolen and what did you do to recover and secure the critical data on it?
Starmer: We’ve announced a new breakfast club in Barnsley.
https://x.com/A_J_Snowden/status/2036724988120629739
People were less staggered once they learned that his family had made a big fat donation to Harvard.
It’s a bit more Wild West than Betfair, with more insider training, and traders with a vested interest in making sure one side wins.
Not as bad as Kalshi…
https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/03/01/always-always-check-the-terms-of-your-bets/
Timothy is clever but given he wrote the disastrous 2017 Tory manifesto I doubt any Tory leader would be too devastated at his loss
https://x.com/oilysailor/status/2036535508575109478?s=46
To be in the top 10 for goals at a stadium you only play at once a year is a level of disrespect we may never see again.
What we will get instead is a tightening of monetary policy by increases in base rates and the government spending lots of money it doesn’t have to boost consumption amongst its favoured clientele.
Idiots.
Continuing N Sea oil exploration, and the roll out of renewables, are two almost completely separate issues now. There's virtually no linkage.
So the arguments for and against exploration - which will make almost no difference to our future usage of oil or gas - are purely economic. And quite strongly in favour of granting drilling licenses.
Arguing the opposite is essentially environmental cosplay.
Iranian agents or random antisemites?
I'd be mildly miffed if they got disqualified from China, so Hamilton gets the win, as it's way past the time when my Hamilton to win bet would count as green.