politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After six weeks of CON leads or them level-pegging today Lo

CD13 said:

Isam,

Agreed.

As you're honest, I propose we give the winnings to Charity. Cafod for me, please.

I'm not being too unreasonable; I visit Boston on a regular basis and if they don't go Kipper, you'll know they've been taken over by aliens.

Ok, no problemo .. if I win you can put a pound in the next charity box for animal welfare that you see.

It is such a pity that nobody is willing to pay ICM to do a weekly poll.

It is clearly a high quality polling company and probably the highest quality firm operating in the UK.

But it is still subject to the same statistical laws as everyone else. And the fact that it has produced outliers in the past increases its credibility.

For example, a week before the 1997 GE they had a poll with Labour just 5% ahead - 8% out from the actual result. That poll was clearly with the benefit of hindsight an outlier.

Each poll interviews a thousand people - but many of these are excluded by the turnout filter, meaning the VI figures are often based on just 500 - 600 actual responses.

The problem is that we won't know if this poll is an outlier or not until next month.

I tend to agree with Nick and Richard that the underlying position is unlikely to have changed. Every time one party gets a good run of polls and looks to be establishing a lead the momentum disappears and the other party has a good run of polls. Exactly what you would expect if the situation is stable and polls are subject to purely random variation.

A further point - people have argued that Labour should have benefited from a 'good' week. I think this makes the mistake that is often made by politicos in assuming the electorate pays attention to this day to day stuff.

The reality is that opinion usually changes very gradually and it takes an extreme event (like say Iraq / Black Wednesday / The omnishambles budget) to cause a dramatic shift in public opinion.

Easterross said:

I do hope Germany puts Greece to the sword and kicks it out of the euro. It would be a resounding message to our voters that voting for kidology economics like that of Ed and Ed is the road to total ruin.

Schadenangriff?

I missed all the fun re: the diamondium standard ICM poll on the previous thread.

And the chart has been updated, and does it show a nascent LD surge?? Probably early days with so few polls in the averaging period, so just a bit of fun...

http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

Jungleland said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jungleland said:

Hey guys,

Working on a few new markets for sporting index. Any markets that you would like us cover? Covered at past elections and would like us to do again?

Great news that you're putting up some more markets. The 3-2-1 market was fascinating last time.

How about a spread on the UKIP vote share?

Also, are you going to un-suspend the Swingometer?

Hey Richard,

I wasnt working at spin for the last election, but i have been going over the markets we offered for the last election and the business we took, and just looking at markets that would be worthwhile.

I know alot of you on here like spread betting and hold us in high regard but it seems we are not offering you enough from reading the comments over the last few months, so hoping to put that right in the next month.

Will definitely be looking at putting party % vote shares, il look into that for you this week. The Swingometer will be going back up, again will look to address that in the next week or so. I agree the 3-2-1 market was a great market looking back. However, it was a hell of alot of work and it would be especially more so in this election. We didn't take alot of bets on it too, so we wont be offering this, apologies.

Great that you're posting on here, Jungleland.

I'll have a think on it and come up for some suggestions on GE markets over the next few days. Take 'em or leave 'em

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jungleland said:

Hey Richard,

I wasnt working at spin for the last election, but i have been going over the markets we offered for the last election and the business we took, and just looking at markets that would be worthwhile.

I know alot of you on here like spread betting and hold us in high regard but it seems we are not offering you enough from reading the comments over the last few months, so hoping to put that right in the next month.

Will definitely be looking at putting party % vote shares, il look into that for you this week. The Swingometer will be going back up, again will look to address that in the next week or so. I agree the 3-2-1 market was a great market looking back. However, it was a hell of alot of work and it would be especially more so in this election. We didn't take alot of bets on it too, so we wont be offering this, apologies.

Thanks for the response. I quite understand about the amount of work on the 3-2-1 market.

How about a simpler set of markets on the number of second places? The interesting ones would probably be UKIP and the LibDems.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jungleland said:

Hey Richard,

I wasnt working at spin for the last election, but i have been going over the markets we offered for the last election and the business we took, and just looking at markets that would be worthwhile.

I know alot of you on here like spread betting and hold us in high regard but it seems we are not offering you enough from reading the comments over the last few months, so hoping to put that right in the next month.

Will definitely be looking at putting party % vote shares, il look into that for you this week. The Swingometer will be going back up, again will look to address that in the next week or so. I agree the 3-2-1 market was a great market looking back. However, it was a hell of alot of work and it would be especially more so in this election. We didn't take alot of bets on it too, so we wont be offering this, apologies.

Thanks for the response. I quite understand about the amount of work on the 3-2-1 market.

How about a simpler set of markets on the number of second places? The interesting ones would probably be UKIP and the LibDems.

And just to make Mondays even more exciting, how about a market on the number of poll leads between now and May 7th?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

And the chart has been updated, and does it show a nascent LD surge?? Probably early days with so few polls in the averaging period, so just a bit of fun...

http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/567055328991514624

I think it is because my latest point contains polls from the 12th of February onwards, and will be for a 15-day period, rather than a weekly average like yours. I thought about making other averaging windows, but then almost lost the will to live coding it in the spreadsheet. Hah

Easterross said:

I do hope Germany puts Greece to the sword and kicks it out of the euro. It would be a resounding message to our voters that voting for kidology economics like that of Ed and Ed is the road to total ruin.

You do know that Germany had a bit of debt written off after ze War?

Looks like Greece is heading for the exit. I have word that the meeting went extremely poorly, Greece willing to make almost no changes to their current path, creditor nations only want minor changes made to the original austerity plan laid out by the Troika.

We moved a few steps closer to a disorderly exit today, especially now that AfD are taking votes off Merkel's CDU in Western Germany.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Easterross said:

I do hope Germany puts Greece to the sword and kicks it out of the euro. It would be a resounding message to our voters that voting for kidology economics like that of Ed and Ed is the road to total ruin.

You do know that Germany had a bit of debt written off after ze War?

I'd argue the situation is a tad different.

Mr. Max, still about a fortnight to go, though, yes? Or would a disorderly exit begin before that?

"Will definitely be looking at putting party % vote shares, il look into that for you this week."

It's strange none of the fixed odds bookmakers are offering vote share markets themselves.
I assume the lines would be something like Labour o/u 32.5% , Conservatives o/u 34.5%, Lib Dems o/u 11.5%, UKIP o/u 12.5%, Greens o/u 5.5%

Mr. Surbiton, not so sure. Neither major party is especially inspirational, and a Eurocalypse [copyright: Morris Dancer] could seek UKIP support surge. (Or not, of course).

Sean_F said:

antifrank said:

Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.

Yes, Antifrank seems to have confused the 1% odd balls on this site who follow politics for the electorate, most of whom barely have an opinion on the party they vote for, let alone others.

Jungleland said:

@petethepunter thanks for the welcome, that market would be very similar to the 3-2-1 we did at the last election

3pts for each constituency this party wins;
2pts for each constituency this party finishes second;
1pt for each constituency this party finishes third.
0pts for any other result.

Its just not manageable, and would be way to risky when you take into account all the factors going into this election, its a betting nightmare and we didnt see much business on it last time. Plus im sure you lot would just have our pants down, and i dont want to us do get our fingers badly burnt and retreat back into the political wilderness. I have plans for the republican primaries, and next US election!

@tissue_price
I like that market.

@isam Maybe, with just the one party it will be more manageable, could do it as part of ukip specials. Be interesting to see what mid point i come to.

Looking at individual consistences, will get some UKIP target seats up for you isam.

Like a 25/10/0? That'd be good, cheers

Jungleland said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jungleland said:

Hey Richard,

I wasnt working at spin for the last election, but i have been going over the markets we offered for the last election and the business we took, and just looking at markets that would be worthwhile.

I know alot of you on here like spread betting and hold us in high regard but it seems we are not offering you enough from reading the comments over the last few months, so hoping to put that right in the next month.

Will definitely be looking at putting party % vote shares, il look into that for you this week. The Swingometer will be going back up, again will look to address that in the next week or so. I agree the 3-2-1 market was a great market looking back. However, it was a hell of alot of work and it would be especially more so in this election. We didn't take alot of bets on it too, so we wont be offering this, apologies.

Thanks for the response. I quite understand about the amount of work on the 3-2-1 market.

How about a simpler set of markets on the number of second places? The interesting ones would probably be UKIP and the LibDems.

And just to make Mondays even more exciting, how about a market on the number of poll leads between now and May 7th?

Noted, will look at 2nd places for ukip and lost deposits-lib dem. Cant promise anything, but will price it up myself this week and have a look.

Pete, mondays are exciting enough mate, i dont want to spend all day refreshing twitter for poll leaks.

Lol!

Wasn't entirely serious, Jungle. Thanks for your efforts.

isam said:

Jungleland said:

@petethepunter thanks for the welcome, that market would be very similar to the 3-2-1 we did at the last election

3pts for each constituency this party wins;
2pts for each constituency this party finishes second;
1pt for each constituency this party finishes third.
0pts for any other result.

Its just not manageable, and would be way to risky when you take into account all the factors going into this election, its a betting nightmare and we didnt see much business on it last time. Plus im sure you lot would just have our pants down, and i dont want to us do get our fingers badly burnt and retreat back into the political wilderness. I have plans for the republican primaries, and next US election!

@tissue_price
I like that market.

@isam Maybe, with just the one party it will be more manageable, could do it as part of ukip specials. Be interesting to see what mid point i come to.

Looking at individual consistences, will get some UKIP target seats up for you isam.

Like a 25/10/0? That'd be good, cheers

isam said:

Jungleland said:

@petethepunter thanks for the welcome, that market would be very similar to the 3-2-1 we did at the last election

3pts for each constituency this party wins;
2pts for each constituency this party finishes second;
1pt for each constituency this party finishes third.
0pts for any other result.

Its just not manageable, and would be way to risky when you take into account all the factors going into this election, its a betting nightmare and we didnt see much business on it last time. Plus im sure you lot would just have our pants down, and i dont want to us do get our fingers badly burnt and retreat back into the political wilderness. I have plans for the republican primaries, and next US election!

@tissue_price
I like that market.

@isam Maybe, with just the one party it will be more manageable, could do it as part of ukip specials. Be interesting to see what mid point i come to.

Looking at individual consistences, will get some UKIP target seats up for you isam.

Like a 25/10/0? That'd be good, cheers

Yes mate, 25-10-0. any constituencies you would like to see us cover? or UKIP specials you would like to see?

surbiton said:

UKIP 6 - 8 is a definite sell. 0 -4 most likely. 3 being the most likely.

The methodology of all the pollsters need to be scrutinised. Some will have egg on their faces come May 8th.

We would happily lay your sell

antifrank said:

maaarsh said:

Sean_F said:

antifrank said:

Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.

Yes, Antifrank seems to have confused the 1% odd balls on this site who follow politics for the electorate, most of whom barely have an opinion on the party they vote for, let alone others.

I seem actually to have read the opinion poll findings at the top of the page. I realise that those are highly uncongenial for the kippers who think that everyone thinks as they do, but the starkest of findings that most of the public actually loathe them are being ignored.

It's right there in black and purple.

Jungleland said:

isam said:

Jungleland said:

@petethepunter thanks for the welcome, that market would be very similar to the 3-2-1 we did at the last election

3pts for each constituency this party wins;
2pts for each constituency this party finishes second;
1pt for each constituency this party finishes third.
0pts for any other result.

Its just not manageable, and would be way to risky when you take into account all the factors going into this election, its a betting nightmare and we didnt see much business on it last time. Plus im sure you lot would just have our pants down, and i dont want to us do get our fingers badly burnt and retreat back into the political wilderness. I have plans for the republican primaries, and next US election!

@tissue_price
I like that market.

@isam Maybe, with just the one party it will be more manageable, could do it as part of ukip specials. Be interesting to see what mid point i come to.

Looking at individual consistences, will get some UKIP target seats up for you isam.

Like a 25/10/0? That'd be good, cheers

isam said:

Jungleland said:

@petethepunter thanks for the welcome, that market would be very similar to the 3-2-1 we did at the last election

3pts for each constituency this party wins;
2pts for each constituency this party finishes second;
1pt for each constituency this party finishes third.
0pts for any other result.

Its just not manageable, and would be way to risky when you take into account all the factors going into this election, its a betting nightmare and we didnt see much business on it last time. Plus im sure you lot would just have our pants down, and i dont want to us do get our fingers badly burnt and retreat back into the political wilderness. I have plans for the republican primaries, and next US election!

@tissue_price
I like that market.

@isam Maybe, with just the one party it will be more manageable, could do it as part of ukip specials. Be interesting to see what mid point i come to.

Looking at individual consistences, will get some UKIP target seats up for you isam.

Like a 25/10/0? That'd be good, cheers

Yes mate, 25-10-0. any constituencies you would like to see us cover? or UKIP specials you would like to see?

There's quite a number would be ideal for that - e.g Watford and Eastleigh.

antifrank said:

maaarsh said:

Sean_F said:

antifrank said:

Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.

Yes, Antifrank seems to have confused the 1% odd balls on this site who follow politics for the electorate, most of whom barely have an opinion on the party they vote for, let alone others.

I seem actually to have read the opinion poll findings at the top of the page. I realise that those are highly uncongenial for the kippers who think that everyone thinks as they do, but the starkest of findings that most of the public actually loathe them are being ignored.

Sorry, I missed the question about 'hating' and 'loathing' - silly me for thinking not everyone is as politically obsessed as you.

You're projecting ridiculous language and strength of feeling on to relatively weak responses from people who would not think of these issues if not phoned and asked.

Soviet football legend Aleksandr Zavarov joins journalist Ruslan Kotsaba to become a another martyr for peace by risking a potential 5 year prison sentence by refusing to be conscripted to fight in the Donbass. “I will say one thing, I will never fight where my family and kids live, where my parents are buried,” the assistant coach for the Ukraine national team said. “I just want peace.”

http://rt.com/news/232579-football-player-ukraine-military/

Guess the Americans won't be fighting the Russians to the last Ukrainian.

Jungleland said:

isam said:

Jungleland said:

@petethepunter thanks for the welcome, that market would be very similar to the 3-2-1 we did at the last election

3pts for each constituency this party wins;
2pts for each constituency this party finishes second;
1pt for each constituency this party finishes third.
0pts for any other result.

Its just not manageable, and would be way to risky when you take into account all the factors going into this election, its a betting nightmare and we didnt see much business on it last time. Plus im sure you lot would just have our pants down, and i dont want to us do get our fingers badly burnt and retreat back into the political wilderness. I have plans for the republican primaries, and next US election!

@tissue_price
I like that market.

@isam Maybe, with just the one party it will be more manageable, could do it as part of ukip specials. Be interesting to see what mid point i come to.

Looking at individual consistences, will get some UKIP target seats up for you isam.

Like a 25/10/0? That'd be good, cheers

isam said:

Jungleland said:

@petethepunter thanks for the welcome, that market would be very similar to the 3-2-1 we did at the last election

3pts for each constituency this party wins;
2pts for each constituency this party finishes second;
1pt for each constituency this party finishes third.
0pts for any other result.

Its just not manageable, and would be way to risky when you take into account all the factors going into this election, its a betting nightmare and we didnt see much business on it last time. Plus im sure you lot would just have our pants down, and i dont want to us do get our fingers badly burnt and retreat back into the political wilderness. I have plans for the republican primaries, and next US election!

@tissue_price
I like that market.

@isam Maybe, with just the one party it will be more manageable, could do it as part of ukip specials. Be interesting to see what mid point i come to.

Looking at individual consistences, will get some UKIP target seats up for you isam.

Like a 25/10/0? That'd be good, cheers

Yes mate, 25-10-0. any constituencies you would like to see us cover? or UKIP specials you would like to see?

Cheers, will have a think! (I used to get paid for this...)

"Ro-Ro-Ro the UKIP Boat"???

25/10 UKIP performance in constituencies beginning "Ro"

antifrank said:

maaarsh said:

antifrank said:

maaarsh said:

Sean_F said:

antifrank said:

Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.

Yes, Antifrank seems to have confused the 1% odd balls on this site who follow politics for the electorate, most of whom barely have an opinion on the party they vote for, let alone others.

I seem actually to have read the opinion poll findings at the top of the page. I realise that those are highly uncongenial for the kippers who think that everyone thinks as they do, but the starkest of findings that most of the public actually loathe them are being ignored.

Sorry, I missed the question about 'hating' and 'loathing' - silly me for thinking not everyone is as politically obsessed as you.

You're projecting ridiculous language and strength of feeling on to relatively weak responses from people who would not think of these issues if not phoned and asked.

Relatively weak? In a scale from -100 to +100, the average score for UKIP is -26 and for Nigel Farage is -27. Labour voters put Nigel Farage at -55. By way of comparison, UKIP voters put Nigel Farage at +62, and as we have often seen on here, they take some persuading that Mr Farage cannot turn water into wine.

Lazy incumbents hate competition

FalseFlag said:

Guess the Americans won't be fighting the Russians to the last Ukrainian.

My friend from Rostov in Russia is actually fighting with the Ukranians, as are many other Russians. Another Russian lad in his battalion had his legs blown off before Christmas, but wanted to hold onto his gun so he could go to Valhalla. Very Messy war.

The ICM figures put the Tories 19 short of a majority, add the 22 LDs and you get another Tory-LD Coalition. The Ashcroft figures have Labour 5 short, and likely more with Scotland
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swing-calculator

So we are still heading for a hung parliament either way, the key difference is ICM has UKIP below 10%, Ashcroft on 16%, so it is the Tories eating into the UKIP vote with ICM which has given them a lead there

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB is absolutely right about the mechanism for potential Grexit.

I'm out the office this week, and out of touch, but it all sounds quite ominous for the people of Greece.

That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a last minute agreement. Greece would have no negotiating power if they appeared scared of Grexit.

If people in Greece realised that come Friday they won't get any money out of the banks they would surely be queuing up at banks now.

Hengists_Gift said:

antifrank said:

maaarsh said:

antifrank said:

maaarsh said:

Sean_F said:

antifrank said:

Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.

Yes, Antifrank seems to have confused the 1% odd balls on this site who follow politics for the electorate, most of whom barely have an opinion on the party they vote for, let alone others.

I seem actually to have read the opinion poll findings at the top of the page. I realise that those are highly uncongenial for the kippers who think that everyone thinks as they do, but the starkest of findings that most of the public actually loathe them are being ignored.

Sorry, I missed the question about 'hating' and 'loathing' - silly me for thinking not everyone is as politically obsessed as you.

You're projecting ridiculous language and strength of feeling on to relatively weak responses from people who would not think of these issues if not phoned and asked.

Relatively weak? In a scale from -100 to +100, the average score for UKIP is -26 and for Nigel Farage is -27. Labour voters put Nigel Farage at -55. By way of comparison, UKIP voters put Nigel Farage at +62, and as we have often seen on here, they take some persuading that Mr Farage cannot turn water into wine.

Are you related to Matthew Parris by any chance? Only he seems as desperate as you to prove how awful UKIP are.

Let's try to put this in terms that kippers can understand. The average member of the public feels considerably more hostile about UKIP and Nigel Farage than the average kipper feels about David Cameron.

Well the ICM was fun. Really not sure that his Lordship is getting VFM but he is certainly getting talked about which is presumably the main thing.

I agree with the comment on the last thread, can't remember who unfortunately, who said that with 5 or 6 active parties outliers should be more common and polling generally more volatile.

This is going to be a seriously interesting election. Anyone who has contrived an all green book should quit while they're ahead.

At the risk of being partisan did anyone else find Ed's idea of talking to business today being about imposing more obligations on them in the form of apprenticeships genuinely funny? I am still not sure he will need it but there are definitely second career opportunities being explored here.

TheWatcher said:

Cyclefree said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB is absolutely right about the mechanism for potential Grexit.

I'm out the office this week, and out of touch, but it all sounds quite ominous for the people of Greece.

That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a last minute agreement. Greece would have no negotiating power if they appeared scared of Grexit.

If people in Greece realised that come Friday they won't get any money out of the banks they would surely be queuing up at banks now.

They think the honey will keep flowing. It's what Syriza promised.

..... and incredibly they're probably right about that.

richardDodd said:

Lucky Guy..Having spent some time on a Trident submarine I can assure you that is not the case.

LOL< doddery claims to be a veteran who had his finger on the nuclear button. Was it big red and shiny like your cheeks.

ICM - further analysis:

Across Great Britain as a whole, Labour is up two and the Tories down one on 2010, a swing against Cameron of 1.5%. In the English battleground seats, however – defined as those which the Tories won by up to 15 points last time, plus those where Labour clung on by no more than 10 points – the Conservatives are unchanged on 38%, while Labour is actually down three on 33%.

and

The one class of seat where Labour looks to be doing materially better is the Tory heartlands. In those places where the Conservatives won by 15 points or more last time, Labour is up by an average of eight, which comes mostly from the Liberal Democrats – so good, but not good enough.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/what-icm-poll-means-for-uk-parties-election-campaign

Obviously all the above can be adjusted by 5% or so to allow for the unusually pro-Tory poll. But it's yet more evidence against that 11.4% "England swing" figure we've frequently seen quoted on here.

MaxPB said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Max, still about a fortnight to go, though, yes? Or would a disorderly exit begin before that?

Possibly as soon as Friday. The debt and support for Greek banks are two separate issues. At the moment Greek banks receive around €60-70bn in emergency support from the ECB, essentially people can withdraw money from their accounts on demand. At midnight on Wednesday that support turns off and the Greek central bank will have to cover the shortfall, but they don't have the power to create money and they don't have foreign reserves to cash in either. By Friday the Greek government will run out of money and the banks will also have run out of money regardless of the actual debt that needs to be rolled over at the end of the month. People will walk away from cash points empty handed and their savings will not be accessible, they won't even be able to get €20 out from their accounts to pay for petrol or groceries.

The only way to head off the cash shortage would be new money creation, which means a new currency over which the Greek government and central bank have complete control. This cash shortage is a completely separate issue from the more general issue of debt and is much more urgent. The ECB hold all of the cards and are insisting that they cannot continue to support Greek banks if the terms of the bailout are not being met.

Those being the hard facts, the Greeks' only negotiating ploy is to up the ante beyond mere financial matters. "Well, if you're going to tell 79% of the Greeks to piss off, we will. We'll create a new currency, we'll go through unnecessary hardship through the transition back to the drachma, and we'll blame it on you. By leaving the EU, leaving NATO and finding other friends you don't like." That is their only ploy. And it only works if they believe it and will execute the threat. They are probably factoring in at least some Europeans taking them at their word.

So the questions are, would the Greeks really follow through on such a threat and, if they would, will the other Europeans correctly assess their intentions? Because no sane European - or Greek - should want that eventuality.

RobD said:

I missed all the fun re: the diamondium standard ICM poll on the previous thread.

Were you in the air or something?

... and incredibly they're probably right about that.

Maybe not this time.

Syriza has overplayed its hand. And that's being very generous to Syriza.

DavidL said:

Tissue_Price said:

ICM - further analysis:

Across Great Britain as a whole, Labour is up two and the Tories down one on 2010, a swing against Cameron of 1.5%. In the English battleground seats, however – defined as those which the Tories won by up to 15 points last time, plus those where Labour clung on by no more than 10 points – the Conservatives are unchanged on 38%, while Labour is actually down three on 33%.

and

The one class of seat where Labour looks to be doing materially better is the Tory heartlands. In those places where the Conservatives won by 15 points or more last time, Labour is up by an average of eight, which comes mostly from the Liberal Democrats – so good, but not good enough.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/what-icm-poll-means-for-uk-parties-election-campaign

Obviously all the above can be adjusted by 5% or so to allow for the unusually pro-Tory poll. But it's yet more evidence against that 11.4% "England swing" figure we've frequently seen quoted on here.

But, but we have had endless threads explaining how the Tories are doing worse in the marginals. Surely that can't be right.

Does kinda support my theory that the tory vote will be significantly more efficient than it was in 2010 though.

Might be worth looking at some Tory gains...

Southampton Itchen
Derby North
Birmingham Edgbaston
Telford
Bolton West
Hampstead and Kilburn
Dumfries and Galloway
Halifax

Having checked in, I hear there may be an "interim" agreement this week, to allow for further talks over the next few months...

I think the creditors would be crazy to do that. Crazy. Allow these jokers a few more months to grandstand around throwing insults and promise payment at the same time as voting themselves more money so that the payment will never take place? They would be fools.

Easterross said:

I do hope Germany puts Greece to the sword and kicks it out of the euro. It would be a resounding message to our voters that voting for kidology economics like that of Ed and Ed is the road to total ruin.

The impact on UK aside (Grexit would likely lower our borrowing costs to record levels, but likely hit the economy, and bank shares too - some of which are still govt. owned), I imagine there will be, when it comes down to it, slightly more political well to prevent Anyexit than to allow Grexit...

I dread to think how this would impact the UKIP/Con position. If managed correctly (i.e. Eurozone members pay for the failure of part of the eurozone) it would be a Con triumph, if not (i.e. all EU members pay Greek bills) I can see UKIP hitting 20%....

Tory Most Seats tumbling again on betfair - 1.71 to back. Bit overdone on one poll even with positive internals.

Ozzie has finally broken into "social media". Could this be a leadership bid?

"Osborne advice on tax avoidance resurfaces
Posted at 16:58
A 2003 appearance on the BBC's Daily Politics by George Osborne is doing the rounds on social media. Mr Osborne suggests a caller to the programme investigates some "pretty clever financial products". The clip comes about 30 seconds into this highlights' selection."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-31481032

Ishmael_X said:

malcolmg said:

TheWatcher said:

malcolmg said:

richardDodd said:

Lucky Guy..Having spent some time on a Trident submarine I can assure you that is not the case.

LOL< doddery claims to be a veteran who had his finger on the nuclear button. Was it big red and shiny like your cheeks.

Tiny and insignificant. A bit like you Malky.

Unlike you I presume , what an odious creep, crawl off back into your hole.

Meet the new standards of decorum and courtesy on PB, same as the old standards of decorum and courtesy on PB.

What are you wittering about you halfwit, your support of sneering cretins like Watcher says a lot about you. Take a hike.

Anorak said:

Ishmael_X said:

malcolmg said:

TheWatcher said:

malcolmg said:

richardDodd said:

Lucky Guy..Having spent some time on a Trident submarine I can assure you that is not the case.

LOL< doddery claims to be a veteran who had his finger on the nuclear button. Was it big red and shiny like your cheeks.

Tiny and insignificant. A bit like you Malky.

Unlike you I presume , what an odious creep, crawl off back into your hole.

Meet the new standards of decorum and courtesy on PB, same as the old standards of decorum and courtesy on PB.

Wouldn't be the same place without it, turnip.

The halfwit has a long way to go to reach the dizzy heights of turnip level.

Charles said:

Tissue_Price said:

ICM - further analysis:

Across Great Britain as a whole, Labour is up two and the Tories down one on 2010, a swing against Cameron of 1.5%. In the English battleground seats, however – defined as those which the Tories won by up to 15 points last time, plus those where Labour clung on by no more than 10 points – the Conservatives are unchanged on 38%, while Labour is actually down three on 33%.

and

The one class of seat where Labour looks to be doing materially better is the Tory heartlands. In those places where the Conservatives won by 15 points or more last time, Labour is up by an average of eight, which comes mostly from the Liberal Democrats – so good, but not good enough.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/what-icm-poll-means-for-uk-parties-election-campaign

Obviously all the above can be adjusted by 5% or so to allow for the unusually pro-Tory poll. But it's yet more evidence against that 11.4% "England swing" figure we've frequently seen quoted on here.

If Labour is up by 8pt in seats the Tories won by 15 points or more last time, that is equivalent to a 16 percent swing in seats that they still lose

Hence the swing in more marginal seats will be lower, on average...

I think most of that 8 points is from the LDs. But then again the Tories are losing some to UKIP in the same seats, so maybe it comes out in the wash.