politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After six weeks of CON leads or them level-pegging today Lo

Options
System
System Posts: 12,578
edited February 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After six weeks of CON leads or them level-pegging today Lord Ashcroft poll has LAB 1% ahead

After such a day of polling it is very hard to draw any conclusions. I must say that I was expecting Ashcroft to be in the same ball-back as ICM given they are both phone polls using very similar approaches with fieldwork over the same period.

Read the full story here


«134567

Comments

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Wasn't there a thread the other day about February polling being predictive of the actual election result.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Tut tut

    The Daily Express website has been censured by newspaper watchdog Ipso for publishing what it said was a “significantly distorted” story claiming Ukip was leading Labour in an opinion poll.

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/feb/16/daily-express-website-ipso-ukip-story-nigel-farage?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=dlvr.it
  • philiph
    philiph Posts: 4,705
    What goes up must come down
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Eagles, but unless you think we're having an electoral system based on quantum mechanics the Conservatives can't be both ahead and behind.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    To be fair, all three polls are consistent with it being neck and neck
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Non-MOE movement for the Cons in both the ANP and the ICM, they could both be outliers.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    Not buying that if a GE today, Tories and Labour would only get ~30%...but can well believe that is basically neck and neck / small 1% Labour lead.

    I think the real question is, can the Tories actually shift significant support their way, either via the budget or the campaign itself..or will Ed "35%"...scratch that "33%"...scratch that "31%" strategy get him over the line?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, but unless you think we're having an electoral system based on quantum mechanics the Conservatives can't be both ahead and behind.

    Oh they can, they can be ahead on the popular vote, and behind on seats.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    edited February 2015
    Mr. Eagles, I was referring to the popular vote, clearly. I'm well aware of the handy nature of the electoral dividing lines, although if the SNP perform as well as they might that could significantly diminish the inherent advantage Labour has hitherto enjoyed.

    Edited extra bit: apparently Gotham will be returning to Channel 5 fairly soon. No date, though.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    There's a real divide beginning to develop between phone polling and web polling.

    Separate the two out and assess the trends and you see very different pictures.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077


    [rubs eyes in disbelief] Ashcroft's tables and spiral of silence adjustments actually make sense this week!! :)
  • peterbuss
    peterbuss Posts: 109
    For the life of me Mike I can't see how the Ashcroft poll is good for Labour.They are meant to have just had their best week for yonks and they are polling at 31%. ICM may well be an outlier but ICM has a very good reputation and if its anywhere near right then one surely has to conclude that Ed's rants about tax avoidance have fallen rather flat. the Ashcroft polls seem to vary wildly in one direction or the other anyway.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Can I have my ball-back please?

    The spread-betting markets are largely unmoved by today's polls. Both Sporting and Spreadex have Labour on a mid spread of 278 seats with the Tories just ahead on 282 & 283 seats respectively.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    chestnut said:

    There's a real divide beginning to develop between phone polling and web polling.

    Separate the two out and assess the trends and you see very different pictures.

    chestnut said:

    There's a real divide beginning to develop between phone polling and web polling.

    Separate the two out and assess the trends and you see very different pictures.

    The telephone pollsters have an average Conservative lead of 0.5%.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Not buying that if a GE today, Tories and Labour would only get ~30%...but can well believe that is basically neck and neck / small 1% Labour lead.

    I think the real question is, can the Tories actually shift significant support their way, either via the budget or the campaign itself..or will Ed "35%"...scratch that "33%"...scratch that "31%" strategy get him over the line?

    The three polls so far today have the Conservatives and Labour on 32% each, slightly lower than last week. Perhaps several days of slinging mud at each other has taken its toll on both of them.
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Wasn't there a thread the other day about February polling being predictive of the actual election result.

    Yes - and all the polls predict a Hung Parliament.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    peterbuss said:

    For the life of me Mike I can't see how the Ashcroft poll is good for Labour.They are meant to have just had their best week for yonks and they are polling at 31%. ICM may well be an outlier but ICM has a very good reputation and if its anywhere near right then one surely has to conclude that Ed's rants about tax avoidance have fallen rather flat. the Ashcroft polls seem to vary wildly in one direction or the other anyway.

    That is the real news from the various polls we have had over the past 2-3 days, both indirectly (and directly in one poll), Labour / Guardian / BBC have thrown the kitchen sink at the Tories for 5-6 days straight on an issue that the public say they are outraged about bankers + tax dodging, and the needle has basically remained unmoved.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited February 2015
    Surely what we make of all this is that not much as changed and the two main parties remain very close? Admittedly, in a forced choice one would probably give more credence to ICM than to Ashcroft, but it's not a forced choice: we have other polls which don't seem to be picking up a big move to the Tories.
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Surely what we make of all this is that not much as changed and the two main parties remain very close? Admittedly, in a forced choice one would probably give more credence to ICM than to Ashcroft, but it's not a forced choice: we have other polls which don't seem to be picking up a big move to the Tories.

    That's about how I see it, Richard.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited February 2015
    Sean_F said:

    The telephone pollsters have an average Conservative lead of 0.5%.

    It's getting more and more noticeable that the Tory numbers are touching 34-35-36 on the phone, while Labour's can drop as low as 28 and rarely top 32-33.

    The age split is also becoming more common.

    Gigantic Labour leads among under 35s on the web.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.
  • frpenkridge
    frpenkridge Posts: 670
    The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away.
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    Sean_F said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Not buying that if a GE today, Tories and Labour would only get ~30%...but can well believe that is basically neck and neck / small 1% Labour lead.

    I think the real question is, can the Tories actually shift significant support their way, either via the budget or the campaign itself..or will Ed "35%"...scratch that "33%"...scratch that "31%" strategy get him over the line?

    The three polls so far today have the Conservatives and Labour on 32% each, slightly lower than last week. Perhaps several days of slinging mud at each other has taken its toll on both of them.
    The only mud has come from Labour. ICM looks off, but maybe so was it's previous one the other way.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    frpenkridge said:

    The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away.

    I think LA is in the huff that his poll-y woll-y has been overshadowed by ICM.

  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    peterbuss said:

    For the life of me Mike I can't see how the Ashcroft poll is good for Labour.They are meant to have just had their best week for yonks and they are polling at 31%. ICM may well be an outlier but ICM has a very good reputation and if its anywhere near right then one surely has to conclude that Ed's rants about tax avoidance have fallen rather flat. the Ashcroft polls seem to vary wildly in one direction or the other anyway.

    That is the real news from the various polls we have had over the past 2-3 days, both indirectly (and directly in one poll), Labour / Guardian / BBC have thrown the kitchen sink at the Tories for 5-6 days straight on an issue that the public say they are outraged about bankers + tax dodging, and the needle has basically remained unmoved.
    Lab love unmoved needles
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    peterbuss said:

    For the life of me Mike I can't see how the Ashcroft poll is good for Labour.They are meant to have just had their best week for yonks and they are polling at 31%. ICM may well be an outlier but ICM has a very good reputation and if its anywhere near right then one surely has to conclude that Ed's rants about tax avoidance have fallen rather flat. the Ashcroft polls seem to vary wildly in one direction or the other anyway.

    But remember, Ashcroft's polling is very, very highly rated by the powers that be on this site.
  • nigel4england
    nigel4england Posts: 4,800
    antifrank said:

    Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

    People that vote tactically have no principles, the other parties are welcome to them.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 9m9 minutes ago
    Still easy to see which political journalists are taking dictation from CCHQ #comfortpolling

    This a week after he admits previous polls under his banner were a load of rubbish....

  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    frpenkridge said:

    The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away.

    Never noticed you posting on here before, Frp, but if that's your usual standard, please, please keep posting!
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Flashman (deceased), not sure quite what Lord Ashcroft is getting at, given the ICM poll was commissioned by the Guardian.
  • Garethofthevale
    Garethofthevale Posts: 503
    antifrank said:

    Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives.

    Any evidence for this? Rocherster suggested the opposite - that Labour voters were willing to vote UKIP to give the Tories a bloody nose.
  • Financier
    Financier Posts: 3,916
    Lord A's fun this week.

    With the impending Oscars, he considers who should act as each of the Party leaders.

    Mr Clegg = Tom Cruise or Kevin Bacon.

    David Cameron = Hugh Grant or Colin Firth

    Mr Miliband = Rowan Atkinson, in character as Mr Bean.

    Mr Farage = Ray Winstone or Sid James.

  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    antifrank said:

    Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

    They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.


  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Garethofthevale said:

    antifrank said:

    Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives.

    Any evidence for this? Rocherster suggested the opposite - that Labour voters were willing to vote UKIP to give the Tories a bloody nose.
    See the table in the header.
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Wasn't there a thread the other day about February polling being predictive of the actual election result.

    How can it possibly be predictive with an election that is so complex and really has no precedents. I am still of the opinion that it will be the economy and by May with low inflation, wage increases at 4 times inflation, the spring weather and a feel good factor almost certainly being felt, the Conservatives have a real chance of having the largest votes and seats
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,090
    FPT:
    Casino_Royale said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Zims, Defence was one of the few departments not splurged on by Labour during their misrule. It's been stretched too thin for too long, and we must retain sufficient resources to protect or, if necessary, reclaim British territory overseas.

    We should slash Aid, not Defence.

    I agree, so why not ditch Trident and spend the money on conventional forces?

    I wouldn't want to ditch Trident whilst Russia is playing the aggressive expansionist in eastern Europe atm, nor until we know the strategic position China adopts once it overtakes the USA in global economic clout.
    Let us take your reading of the Russia situation as accurate, and let us say that China wants to invade us into the bargain. There is simply no mechanism by which Trident is capable of warding either of them off. Trident can and will be used only when the US allows it. And frankly anyone who thinks the Americans will enter into a nuclear war to defend good old blighty from invasion needs a catscan. This article (which I post perrenially) needs reading: http://www.theweek.co.uk/politics/45658/nonsense-heart-britains-independent-nuclear-defence

  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

    They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.


    Can they win a seat without a Con defector?
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), not sure quite what Lord Ashcroft is getting at, given the ICM poll was commissioned by the Guardian.

    Sounds like he wants his polls to have the same public standing as ICM.

  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It seems that UKIP's candidates are going to provide a lot of newspaper material in the coming campaign:

    http://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/the-dragon-welsh-flag-nothing-8638789
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    TheWatcher said:

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

    They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.


    Can they win a seat without a Con defector?
    We'll find out on May 7th,
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Zims, Defence was one of the few departments not splurged on by Labour during their misrule. It's been stretched too thin for too long, and we must retain sufficient resources to protect or, if necessary, reclaim British territory overseas.

    We should slash Aid, not Defence.

    I agree, so why not ditch Trident and spend the money on conventional forces?

    I wouldn't want to ditch Trident whilst Russia is playing the aggressive expansionist in eastern Europe atm, nor until we know the strategic position China adopts once it overtakes the USA in global economic clout.
    Trident can and will be used only when the US allows it.
    How, exactly, can they do that?

  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited February 2015
    antifrank said:

    Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

    You're saying the votes UKIP have got in the last two years by elections and Euros are solid kipper and not protest? Nice!

    I was worried they might be flaky

    There was polling at the weekend that backed that up actually I think
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    TheWatcher said:

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

    They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.


    Can they win a seat without a Con defector?
    Price it up?! I fancy a bet

    What odds are you offering?
  • richardDodd
    richardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Lucky Guy..Having spent some time on a Trident submarine I can assure you that is not the case.
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

    They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.


    ComRes found lots of pro-UKIP voters in other parties support.

    "UKIP has some good ideas about how to run the country"
    Agree: Con 46%, Lab 33%, LD 44%.

    p.75
    http://comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/SM-IoS-Political-Poll-15th-February-2015_456794.pdf
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Hardly surprising UKIP voter satisfaction is so low - with the other three parties being against them. It's simple mathematics, not politics.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

    You're saying the votes UKIP have got in the last two years by elections and Euros are solid kipper and not protest? Nice!

    I was worried they might be flaky

    There was polling at the weekend that backed that up actually I think
    I think the answer is that neither Conservative voters nor Labour voters are a monolith.

    Conservative voters in Greater London, or the wealthier parts of the Home Counties. or core cities probably dislike UKIP far more than they dislike Labour. The reverse is true of Conservative voters in the urban North, the East Coast, or Devon and Cornwall. Ditto Labour voters.

  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

    You're saying the votes UKIP have got in the last two years by elections and Euros are solid kipper and not protest? Nice!

    I was worried they might be flaky

    There was polling at the weekend that backed that up actually I think
    The question is whether UKIP voters can be squeezed tactically. That table doesn't give any party great hopes. Kippers seem a bit less hostile to David Cameron and the Conservatives than to Labour and the Lib Dems, but they're still hardly friendly.

    The remaining Lib Dems, however, seem to like David Cameron and Labour, but dislike the Conservatives and Ed Miliband. Try to work out how the tactical voting might work from that.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

    You're saying the votes UKIP have got in the last two years by elections and Euros are solid kipper and not protest? Nice!

    I was worried they might be flaky

    There was polling at the weekend that backed that up actually I think
    What was the turnout in those elections and how confident are you that when the turnout rises to 65% the Kipper share won't take a tumble ?
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    antifrank said:

    It seems that UKIP's candidates are going to provide a lot of newspaper material in the coming campaign:

    http://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/the-dragon-welsh-flag-nothing-8638789

    I'd be tempted to reply only I'd be criticised for hurting the Tories.
    Ok... I give in
    The amazement surely is that he is being parachuted in. It's a conscious choice.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    anotherDave said:

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

    They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.


    ComRes found lots of pro-UKIP voters in other parties support.

    "UKIP has some good ideas about how to run the country"
    Agree: Con 46%, Lab 33%, LD 44%.

    p.75
    http://comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/SM-IoS-Political-Poll-15th-February-2015_456794.pdf
    Maximum potential UKIP support is 29% with MORI or 34% with Com Res. Those scores take you a long way, in a multi-party system.

  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    Financier said:

    Lord A's fun this week.

    With the impending Oscars, he considers who should act as each of the Party leaders.

    Mr Clegg = Tom Cruise or Kevin Bacon.

    David Cameron = Hugh Grant or Colin Firth

    Mr Miliband = Rowan Atkinson, in character as Mr Bean.

    Mr Farage = Ray Winstone or Sid James.

    Lord A has a nice sense of humour.

    Surprised nobody has suggested George Cole in his Arthur Daly guise for Nigel F.
  • Jungleland
    Jungleland Posts: 40
    Hey guys,

    Working on a few new markets for sporting index. Any markets that you would like us cover? Covered at past elections and would like us to do again?
  • logical_song
    logical_song Posts: 10,082
    antifrank said:

    It seems that UKIP's candidates are going to provide a lot of newspaper material in the coming campaign:

    http://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/the-dragon-welsh-flag-nothing-8638789

    He stood in Barking - that's about right.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    I'm sure the true position is nothing like ICM.

    But surely the big news from today's 3 polls is that the trend which appeared to be happening at the end of last week may well not in fact be happening.

    ie At the end of last week (and in the Sunday polls) it appeared that the Lab lead had inched up to 2% or 2.5% from the 1.5% it had previously been at for some time.

    Today's 3 polls average a Con lead of 0.3%. Of course that doesn't mean the true position is a Con lead of 0.3%. However if the true position was a Lab lead of 2% to 2.5% then it's pretty unlikely you would get 3 polls averaging approx 2.5% off that position.

    I think the most likely answer is that the true position is a Lab lead of 1.5% - ie where we thought it was until a few days ago - ie that the polls at the end of last week and today are just a bit of random variation.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sean_F said:

    anotherDave said:

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

    They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.


    ComRes found lots of pro-UKIP voters in other parties support.

    "UKIP has some good ideas about how to run the country"
    Agree: Con 46%, Lab 33%, LD 44%.

    p.75
    http://comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/SM-IoS-Political-Poll-15th-February-2015_456794.pdf
    Maximum potential UKIP support is 29% with MORI or 34% with Com Res. Those scores take you a long way, in a multi-party system.

    From the same poll:

    UKIP would be dangerous if it had any power

    Agree 55% (62% Conservative, 71% Labour, 66% Lib Dem)
    Disagree 26%

    9% of UKIP supporters agree, which is quite revealing.
  • BenM
    BenM Posts: 1,795
    Big shout: I'm with ICM more than Ashcroft. As I believe both main Parties are closer to mid thirties than this.

    My only comfort with the ICM poll is I think Lab are above 32%. But that could mean they're on just 33%. Which is still a 3 point deficit! Ha!

  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Antifrank, that's only a useful question and set of answers if we have comparable stats for the other parties.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited February 2015
    Jungleland said:

    Hey guys,

    Working on a few new markets for sporting index. Any markets that you would like us cover? Covered at past elections and would like us to do again?

    Great news that you're putting up some more markets. The 3-2-1 market was fascinating last time.

    How about a spread on the UKIP vote share?

    Also, are you going to un-suspend the Swingometer?
  • justin124
    justin124 Posts: 11,527
    '"But having come closest to predicting three of the last four general elections, ICM’s regular phone poll for the Guardian is seen as the gold standard, and so Monday’s result will bring the Tories particular cheer."

    In terms of predicting party lead that claim is not accurate. In 1997 Gallup's final poll predicted a Labour lead of 13% which matched the actual outcome - ICM had given Labour a 10% lead. YouGov in 2001 predicted a 10% Labour lead compared with the outcome of 9% with ICM saying 11%..In 2005 NOP predicted the actual outcome of a 3% Labour lead compared with ICM's 6% lead.Finally in 2010 YouGov and MORI predicted a 7% Tory lead compared with the 7.3% outcome - ICM had predicted 8%.
  • logical_song
    logical_song Posts: 10,082
    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

    They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.

    So can George Galloway
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

    You're saying the votes UKIP have got in the last two years by elections and Euros are solid kipper and not protest? Nice!

    I was worried they might be flaky

    There was polling at the weekend that backed that up actually I think
    The question is whether UKIP voters can be squeezed tactically. That table doesn't give any party great hopes. Kippers seem a bit less hostile to David Cameron and the Conservatives than to Labour and the Lib Dems, but they're still hardly friendly.

    The remaining Lib Dems, however, seem to like David Cameron and Labour, but dislike the Conservatives and Ed Miliband. Try to work out how the tactical voting might work from that.
    I think that amount of tactical voting is wildly exaggerated.. it implies a level of understanding of the nuances of the voting system that is way beyond the interest let alone understanding of 90% of voters
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Zims, Defence was one of the few departments not splurged on by Labour during their misrule. It's been stretched too thin for too long, and we must retain sufficient resources to protect or, if necessary, reclaim British territory overseas.

    We should slash Aid, not Defence.

    I agree, so why not ditch Trident and spend the money on conventional forces?

    I wouldn't want to ditch Trident whilst Russia is playing the aggressive expansionist in eastern Europe atm, nor until we know the strategic position China adopts once it overtakes the USA in global economic clout.
    Let us take your reading of the Russia situation as accurate, and let us say that China wants to invade us into the bargain. There is simply no mechanism by which Trident is capable of warding either of them off. Trident can and will be used only when the US allows it. And frankly anyone who thinks the Americans will enter into a nuclear war to defend good old blighty from invasion needs a catscan. This article (which I post perrenially) needs reading: http://www.theweek.co.uk/politics/45658/nonsense-heart-britains-independent-nuclear-defence
    How does non nuclear Europe ward off nuclear blackmail from China or Russia? How does non nuclear Europe influence anything or decide anything for itself in a world where the biggest countries in the world have nuclear weapons. Mr Black is entitled to his opinion. He is as wrong as ever. To be honest he is not only not right, it is not even wrong.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Antifrank, that's only a useful question and set of answers if we have comparable stats for the other parties.

    I take your point, but even taken on its own, it's hardly exactly a promising statistic for UKIP. Two out of three people who expressed a preference think that UKIP would be dangerous if it had any power.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Surely what we make of all this is that not much as changed and the two main parties remain very close? Admittedly, in a forced choice one would probably give more credence to ICM than to Ashcroft, but it's not a forced choice: we have other polls which don't seem to be picking up a big move to the Tories.

    Agreed - it's what I said yesterday when we were looking at Labour +3. I doubt if the underlying position has changed significantly.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

    You're saying the votes UKIP have got in the last two years by elections and Euros are solid kipper and not protest? Nice!

    I was worried they might be flaky

    There was polling at the weekend that backed that up actually I think
    What was the turnout in those elections and how confident are you that when the turnout rises to 65% the Kipper share won't take a tumble ?
    The turnouts are easily found if you want to and I am almost certain that the Kipper share will take a tumble

    You worked out what odds you want to offer on UKIP winning a seat other than from a defector yet? I wont try and be sneaky and have you over on the fact that Carswell and Reckless are no longer defectors but UKIP incumbents

    What price UKIP win a seat that isn't Clacton or Rochester (any future defectors don't count)?

    C'mon lets do it!!
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    antifrank said:

    Sean_F said:

    anotherDave said:

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

    They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.


    ComRes found lots of pro-UKIP voters in other parties support.

    "UKIP has some good ideas about how to run the country"
    Agree: Con 46%, Lab 33%, LD 44%.

    p.75
    http://comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/SM-IoS-Political-Poll-15th-February-2015_456794.pdf
    Maximum potential UKIP support is 29% with MORI or 34% with Com Res. Those scores take you a long way, in a multi-party system.

    From the same poll:

    UKIP would be dangerous if it had any power

    Agree 55% (62% Conservative, 71% Labour, 66% Lib Dem)
    Disagree 26%

    9% of UKIP supporters agree, which is quite revealing.
    If there were one anti-UKIP party, that would be a problem for UKIP. But, we now have six parties with substantial levels of electoral support.

  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Financier said:

    Lord A's fun this week.

    With the impending Oscars, he considers who should act as each of the Party leaders.

    Mr Clegg = Tom Cruise or Kevin Bacon.

    David Cameron = Hugh Grant or Colin Firth

    Mr Miliband = Rowan Atkinson, in character as Mr Bean.

    Mr Farage = Ray Winstone or Sid James.

    Lord A has a nice sense of humour.

    Surprised nobody has suggested George Cole in his Arthur Daly guise for Nigel F.
    David Cameron is surely Neil Dudgeon from Midsomer?
  • David_Evershed
    David_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    What happened to all those extra MP defectors to UKIP?
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    antifrank said:

    Sean_F said:

    anotherDave said:

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

    They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.


    ComRes found lots of pro-UKIP voters in other parties support.

    "UKIP has some good ideas about how to run the country"
    Agree: Con 46%, Lab 33%, LD 44%.

    p.75
    http://comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/SM-IoS-Political-Poll-15th-February-2015_456794.pdf
    Maximum potential UKIP support is 29% with MORI or 34% with Com Res. Those scores take you a long way, in a multi-party system.

    From the same poll:

    UKIP would be dangerous if it had any power

    Agree 55% (62% Conservative, 71% Labour, 66% Lib Dem)
    Disagree 26%

    9% of UKIP supporters agree, which is quite revealing.
    You seem a clever-ish guy, you must see that those numbers are good for a party that got 3% at the least GE?
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Jungleland said:

    Hey guys,

    Working on a few new markets for sporting index. Any markets that you would like us cover? Covered at past elections and would like us to do again?

    UKIP second place finishes?
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    If Labour get in and start cracking down on tax "planning", I presume we wont see any of this kind of thing again....

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/2787307/Labour-donor-Lord-Sainsbury-avoids-27m-capital-gains-tax.html
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    Sean_F said:

    anotherDave said:

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

    They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.


    ComRes found lots of pro-UKIP voters in other parties support.

    "UKIP has some good ideas about how to run the country"
    Agree: Con 46%, Lab 33%, LD 44%.

    p.75
    http://comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/SM-IoS-Political-Poll-15th-February-2015_456794.pdf
    Maximum potential UKIP support is 29% with MORI or 34% with Com Res. Those scores take you a long way, in a multi-party system.

    From the same poll:

    UKIP would be dangerous if it had any power

    Agree 55% (62% Conservative, 71% Labour, 66% Lib Dem)
    Disagree 26%

    9% of UKIP supporters agree, which is quite revealing.
    If there were one anti-UKIP party, that would be a problem for UKIP. But, we now have six parties with substantial levels of electoral support.

    So you simultaneously believe that UKIP will benefit from tactical voting at the general election despite recording by far the worst favourability ratings of any party in the table above and that there will be no tactical voting against UKIP in any seat where UKIP are in contention despite voters believing by 2:1 that UKIP would be dangerous if it had any power?
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    ICM and Populus both on record lows for Labour this parliament?
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    If Labour get in and start cracking down on tax "planning", I presume we wont see any of this kind of thing again....

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/2787307/Labour-donor-Lord-Sainsbury-avoids-27m-capital-gains-tax.html

    That's 'good' avoidance. Totally different.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    antifrank said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Antifrank, that's only a useful question and set of answers if we have comparable stats for the other parties.

    I take your point, but even taken on its own, it's hardly exactly a promising statistic for UKIP. Two out of three people who expressed a preference think that UKIP would be dangerous if it had any power.
    Why??? 97% of people voted for a different party at the last election
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Jungleland said:

    Hey guys,

    Working on a few new markets for sporting index. Any markets that you would like us cover? Covered at past elections and would like us to do again?

    Multi-Minors. UKIP Seats x Green Seats x SNP seats x PC seats
  • Hengists_Gift
    Hengists_Gift Posts: 628
    Interesting that this poll suggest the Tories are on target for a 1997 level of success and Labour are barely ahead of their 2010 level of success. Could we see the leader of a party that polled less than 30% of those who voted (therefore likely less than 20% of those registered to vote) attempt to form the government?

    Some mandate that will be. I do increasingly think (especially with the SNP dynamic) that this might be an excellent election to lose.
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    Jungleland said:

    Hey guys,

    Working on a few new markets for sporting index. Any markets that you would like us cover? Covered at past elections and would like us to do again?

    Good to hear from you, Jungle.

    Any chance of some sort of market on number of second places? It could perhaps be done as a sort of Performance Index.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

    You're saying the votes UKIP have got in the last two years by elections and Euros are solid kipper and not protest? Nice!

    I was worried they might be flaky

    There was polling at the weekend that backed that up actually I think
    What was the turnout in those elections and how confident are you that when the turnout rises to 65% the Kipper share won't take a tumble ?
    The turnouts are easily found if you want to and I am almost certain that the Kipper share will take a tumble

    You worked out what odds you want to offer on UKIP winning a seat other than from a defector yet? I wont try and be sneaky and have you over on the fact that Carswell and Reckless are no longer defectors but UKIP incumbents

    What price UKIP win a seat that isn't Clacton or Rochester (any future defectors don't count)?

    C'mon lets do it!!
    We have a little bet on whether LDs will get more votes than the Kippers - more than happy with that especially as the downward purple worm trend continues.


  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    antifrank said:

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    Sean_F said:

    anotherDave said:

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

    They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.


    ComRes found lots of pro-UKIP voters in other parties support.

    "UKIP has some good ideas about how to run the country"
    Agree: Con 46%, Lab 33%, LD 44%.

    p.75
    http://comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/SM-IoS-Political-Poll-15th-February-2015_456794.pdf
    Maximum potential UKIP support is 29% with MORI or 34% with Com Res. Those scores take you a long way, in a multi-party system.

    From the same poll:

    UKIP would be dangerous if it had any power

    Agree 55% (62% Conservative, 71% Labour, 66% Lib Dem)
    Disagree 26%

    9% of UKIP supporters agree, which is quite revealing.
    If there were one anti-UKIP party, that would be a problem for UKIP. But, we now have six parties with substantial levels of electoral support.

    So you simultaneously believe that UKIP will benefit from tactical voting at the general election despite recording by far the worst favourability ratings of any party in the table above and that there will be no tactical voting against UKIP in any seat where UKIP are in contention despite voters believing by 2:1 that UKIP would be dangerous if it had any power?
    If UKIP were competing for power nationally against one anti-UKIP party, those would be bad numbers. They'd be in much the same position as the Conservatives were under William Hague.

    But, at the moment, they're still expanding their support. What matters is what voters think of them in the areas where they're in contention. So far as one can tell, voters down the East Coast and South West are pretty receptive to UKIP's message. It doesn't matter if voters in Scotland or Greater London are very hostile.

  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Not buying that if a GE today, Tories and Labour would only get ~30%...but can well believe that is basically neck and neck / small 1% Labour lead.

    I think the real question is, can the Tories actually shift significant support their way, either via the budget or the campaign itself..or will Ed "35%"...scratch that "33%"...scratch that "31%" strategy get him over the line?

    I'm not sure the budget can shift anything much. Osborne ought to do what he can to help the self employed ie Ed Balls' hedge cutter, and more particularly small businesses. He can make a point of helping the North Sea oil industry. It would help define the point of the Union and in the process define a moderate anti left tory party in Scotland.
    With large numbers of public sector jobs being lost, the growth is self employment and the job creating abilities of small businesses seems to me where it is politic to give help.
  • Easterross
    Easterross Posts: 1,915
    Afternoon all and like most if not all of you I have no idea what to make of the polls. What is to say that today's Ashcroft with Tories down 4 isn't the outlier? Maybe next week we will have a better idea and certainly by 8th May we will know for sure.

    One thing which seems more beyond doubt is the utter despair being felt in SLAB. With little encouragement a great many Labour figures admit they are staring down the barrel of a gun and face a mauling.
  • Toms
    Toms Posts: 2,478
    philiph said:

    What goes up must come down

    ---or go into orbit.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited February 2015
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

    You're saying the votes UKIP have got in the last two years by elections and Euros are solid kipper and not protest? Nice!

    I was worried they might be flaky

    There was polling at the weekend that backed that up actually I think
    What was the turnout in those elections and how confident are you that when the turnout rises to 65% the Kipper share won't take a tumble ?
    The turnouts are easily found if you want to and I am almost certain that the Kipper share will take a tumble

    You worked out what odds you want to offer on UKIP winning a seat other than from a defector yet? I wont try and be sneaky and have you over on the fact that Carswell and Reckless are no longer defectors but UKIP incumbents

    What price UKIP win a seat that isn't Clacton or Rochester (any future defectors don't count)?

    C'mon lets do it!!
    We have a little bet on whether LDs will get more votes than the Kippers - more than happy with that especially as the downward purple worm trend continues.


    You've laid a 2/7 shot at 10/11 and are more than happy?! Haha explains a lot

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-votes-ukip-v-lib-dem

    Want to treble the stakes then? I'd be more than happy to oblige...
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Tissue_Price said:

    Jungleland said:

    Hey guys,

    Working on a few new markets for sporting index. Any markets that you would like us cover? Covered at past elections and would like us to do again?

    Multi-Minors. UKIP Seats x Green Seats x SNP seats x PC seats
    That would be agonising to bet on. There would be a substantial risk of zero, given the Greens' precarious position. Yet if they get just one, the final total could be over 1,000.
  • CD13
    CD13 Posts: 6,386
    Isam.

    I'm willing to lose my virginity on a political bet.

    I'll take your wager that Ukip win only the two current seats or fewer. But I'd like 10/1 please. I'll bet a nice shiny one pound coin to win ten?

    A bet?
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    edited February 2015
    chestnut said:

    ICM and Populus both on record lows for Labour this parliament?

    Not quite - 33% in Populus/The Times on 23rd June 2010
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    antifrank said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Jungleland said:

    Hey guys,

    Working on a few new markets for sporting index. Any markets that you would like us cover? Covered at past elections and would like us to do again?

    Multi-Minors. UKIP Seats x Green Seats x SNP seats x PC seats
    That would be agonising to bet on. There would be a substantial risk of zero, given the Greens' precarious position. Yet if they get just one, the final total could be over 1,000.

    Could be done if zero seats are removed if they occur, otherwise it would be hugely volatile.


  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    CD13 said:

    Isam.

    I'm willing to lose my virginity on a political bet.

    I'll take your wager that Ukip win only the two current seats or fewer. But I'd like 10/1 please. I'll bet a nice shiny one pound coin to win ten?

    A bet?

    If you want that kind of margin I am not surprised you have never had a political bet...

    But seeing as it's just a pound I will lay it... I take 1/10 for a tenner, UKIP win a seat other than Rochester or Clacton
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    MarkHopkins said:

    antifrank said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Jungleland said:

    Hey guys,

    Working on a few new markets for sporting index. Any markets that you would like us cover? Covered at past elections and would like us to do again?

    Multi-Minors. UKIP Seats x Green Seats x SNP seats x PC seats
    That would be agonising to bet on. There would be a substantial risk of zero, given the Greens' precarious position. Yet if they get just one, the final total could be over 1,000.

    Could be done if zero seats are removed if they occur, otherwise it would be hugely volatile.


    That's the point of the bet
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    So ICM have feet of clay.

    Let YouGov decide
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    Easterross said:

    Afternoon all and like most if not all of you I have no idea what to make of the polls. What is to say that today's Ashcroft with Tories down 4 isn't the outlier? Maybe next week we will have a better idea and certainly by 8th May we will know for sure.

    One thing which seems more beyond doubt is the utter despair being felt in SLAB. With little encouragement a great many Labour figures admit they are staring down the barrel of a gun and face a mauling.

    The loony left have been happy to be part of Labour previously to parrot their beliefs not least their anti nuclear ideas - but all their other left wing ideas as well. Nationally they could use their seats to keep Labour in power and at that time there was no serious alternative. They would have stayed with Labour if they had supported independence since independence would have enabled them to remove Trident and at the same time scupper the deterrent for rUK. But with Labour helping defeat independence there is no point them staying with Labour. A newly far left SNP - made more far left by them all joining it - is a suitable home for them. They feel they can form as good a blocking vote in the UK as they would with Labour. A better one in fact.
    There is no reason for left wingers to vote Labour anymore - certainly not the present Labour.
    This of course means that people whom are not left inclined will be voting SNP at their peril. There may not be many seats that suit the Tories but were there are they should be exposing the modern SNP for what they are.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    antifrank said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Jungleland said:

    Hey guys,

    Working on a few new markets for sporting index. Any markets that you would like us cover? Covered at past elections and would like us to do again?

    Multi-Minors. UKIP Seats x Green Seats x SNP seats x PC seats
    That would be agonising to bet on. There would be a substantial risk of zero, given the Greens' precarious position. Yet if they get just one, the final total could be over 1,000.
    The correct move is usually to sell on these sorts of things, but it takes balls of steel!

    7 UKIP * 2 Green * 50 SNP * 5 PC = 3500...
  • JonnyJimmy
    JonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    It's not so much what Osborne says here that's dodgy, it's his eyebrows while he says it (30 secs in) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20958315
  • Hengists_Gift
    Hengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited February 2015
    antifrank said:

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    Sean_F said:

    anotherDave said:

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.

    They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.


    ComRes found lots of pro-UKIP voters in other parties support.

    "UKIP has some good ideas about how to run the country"
    Agree: Con 46%, Lab 33%, LD 44%.

    p.75
    http://comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/SM-IoS-Political-Poll-15th-February-2015_456794.pdf
    Maximum potential UKIP support is 29% with MORI or 34% with Com Res. Those scores take you a long way, in a multi-party system.

    From the same poll:

    UKIP would be dangerous if it had any power

    Agree 55% (62% Conservative, 71% Labour, 66% Lib Dem)
    Disagree 26%

    9% of UKIP supporters agree, which is quite revealing.
    If there were one anti-UKIP party, that would be a problem for UKIP. But, we now have six parties with substantial levels of electoral support.

    So you simultaneously believe that UKIP will benefit from tactical voting at the general election despite recording by far the worst favourability ratings of any party in the table above and that there will be no tactical voting against UKIP in any seat where UKIP are in contention despite voters believing by 2:1 that UKIP would be dangerous if it had any power?
    The primary focus of tactical voting will be to deny/assist either Labour or the Tories in the battle for Downing Street. Now why would Labour voters vote against UKIP and help the Tories? Why would Tory voters vote against UKIP to help Labour. These are not rational choices to make from their perspective. Libdems and Greens are likely to decide their decision more on denying Labour or Tory dependent on their viewpoint. Which means the only people who will likely vote tactically against UKIP potentially are in the two seats they hold or are doing so based on irrational emotions and not political calculation and if its based on irrationality its certainly not tactical.

    A more reasonable premise is that people in seats where their preferred government party are unlikely to/ cannot win could hold their nose and turn to UKIP (who will likely hold little influence in the next government) to try and stop the party they oppose from winning. How big those numbers might be depends on the sort of campaign UKIP have and whether they use such tactics in seats they have a chance of winning.
  • CD13
    CD13 Posts: 6,386
    Isam,

    Agreed.

    As you're honest, I propose we give the winnings to Charity. Cafod for me, please.

    I'm not being too unreasonable; I visit Boston on a regular basis and if they don't go Kipper, you'll know they've been taken over by aliens.
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    Tissue_Price said:

    antifrank said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Jungleland said:

    Hey guys,

    Working on a few new markets for sporting index. Any markets that you would like us cover? Covered at past elections and would like us to do again?

    Multi-Minors. UKIP Seats x Green Seats x SNP seats x PC seats
    That would be agonising to bet on. There would be a substantial risk of zero, given the Greens' precarious position. Yet if they get just one, the final total could be over 1,000.
    The correct move is usually to sell on these sorts of things, but it takes balls of steel!

    7 UKIP * 2 Green * 50 SNP * 5 PC = 3500...
    Alternatively you buy for 10p. Can still come to quite a bit.
  • frpenkridge
    frpenkridge Posts: 670
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    frpenkridge said:

    The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away.

    Never noticed you posting on here before, Frp, but if that's your usual standard, please, please keep posting!
    Sorry to disappoint but I've been posting (as fr) since about 2008. I used to "stalk" roger, nick and some Scots bloke but decided to take a Parliament off after the last election.
  • Jungleland
    Jungleland Posts: 40
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Jungleland said:

    Hey guys,

    Working on a few new markets for sporting index. Any markets that you would like us cover? Covered at past elections and would like us to do again?

    Great news that you're putting up some more markets. The 3-2-1 market was fascinating last time.

    How about a spread on the UKIP vote share?

    Also, are you going to un-suspend the Swingometer?
    Hey Richard,

    I wasnt working at spin for the last election, but i have been going over the markets we offered for the last election and the business we took, and just looking at markets that would be worthwhile.

    I know alot of you on here like spread betting and hold us in high regard but it seems we are not offering you enough from reading the comments over the last few months, so hoping to put that right in the next month.

    Will definitely be looking at putting party % vote shares, il look into that for you this week. The Swingometer will be going back up, again will look to address that in the next week or so. I agree the 3-2-1 market was a great market looking back. However, it was a hell of alot of work and it would be especially more so in this election. We didn't take alot of bets on it too, so we wont be offering this, apologies.
This discussion has been closed.

Categories