politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on the Copenhagen shootings and the day’s first poll s

Options
245

Comments

  • murali_s
    murali_s Posts: 3,084
    edited February 2015
    Sensational poll for the Tories. We can spin in it any way we want but the facts are the Tories are 4 points ahead in this poll....
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    compouter2 said:

    Tory surge now on:

    Out of the last 28 polls Tory lead in 4

    How many of the last 28 polls have shown anyone ahead outside MOE?

    I suspect this one does, but precious few others......
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    For those wot missed it, ELBOW for week-ending 15th Feb:

    Labour lead 1.5% largest for 4 weeks
    Labour's 33.9% largest ELBOW score this year
    UKIP have their lowest ELBOW score since 5th October
    LibDem lead of 1.3% over Greens largest for 5 weeks
    Greens lowest score of 6.2% this year

    Are you still a peak Kipper denier Sunil ?
  • BenM
    BenM Posts: 1,795
    Now that is a truly frightening poll for Labour.

    Oh dear. UKIP down, Tories up. Just as was supposed to happen.

    This could be the pivot.

    Just going away to tuck into some humble pie. May be a while.
  • compouter2
    compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    MaxPB said:

    compouter2 said:

    Tory surge now on:

    Out of the last 28 polls Tory lead in 4

    It must be burning you up inside.
    Smarmeron said:

    @compouter2
    The Tories are feeling the surge, but it will be a b*gger to clean off of their keyboards ;)

    Shares in Tissues - UP
    Shares in Laptop cleaning equiptment - UP
    Basils Goalposts - Down
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    James Forsyth:
    At weekend Labour shadows were wondering how long Tory discipline could hold in the face of a persistent Labour lead, that’s why ICM matters
  • Bond_James_Bond
    Bond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    I love the way, whenever a poll comes out that's favourable to the Conservatives, the lefties insist that the PB Tories are all whooping and punching the air about it, and when it reverts the next week, they're then mocked for being suicidally downcast.

    It's almost as though lefties see the world in terms of deliberately dishonest 1930s cliches designed to perpetuate poverty for their own narrow electoral advantage, or something.

    Vicious cuts.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    Smarmeron said:

    @compouter2
    The Tories are feeling the surge, but it will be a b*gger to clean off of their keyboards ;)

    New keyboards all round!

  • compouter2
    compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    CarlottaVance said:

    compouter2 said:

    Tory surge now on:

    Out of the last 28 polls Tory lead in 4

    How many of the last 28 polls have shown anyone ahead outside MOE?

    I suspect this one does, but precious few others......
    TNS had a 6% Labour lead, but that was wisely ignored.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    BenM said:

    Now that is a truly frightening poll for Labour.

    Oh dear. UKIP down, Tories up. Just as was supposed to happen.

    This could be the pivot.

    Just going away to tuck into some humble pie. May be a while.

    I'd put it back in the oven on a low heat for the time being... I'm not buying this one.

  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    Ed needs to keep focusing on tax avoidance as this only hurts the Tories and in any case Labour don't do that stuff.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    "important issues" by ICM

    Immigration falling
    Economy up
    Education rising (where MORI has Dave leading Ed on raising school standards)

    Explains the VI...
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    MarqueeMark said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    First the caveat. That must be an outlier/rogue (never sure what the technical difference is between them).

    Now I'm going to sit in the corner and p1ss myself laughing :smiley:

    Buy Kleenex shares.....
    To wipe away Basil's tears.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Swamped at work... but feck me!

    ICM = Gold STANDARD.

    All the reds over confidence & gloating here at the weekend after 1 supposed good week was a new PB delight...
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    edited February 2015
    BREAKING: The Met Office have advised all residents in Merseyside to stay indoors. Apparrently there is a huge cloud of smug floating over Crosby.....
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    Smarmeron said:

    @compouter2
    The Tories are feeling the surge, but it will be a b*gger to clean off of their keyboards ;)

    Says he who supports Ed Miliband - the geek extraordinaire!:)
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    compouter2 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    compouter2 said:

    Tory surge now on:

    Out of the last 28 polls Tory lead in 4

    How many of the last 28 polls have shown anyone ahead outside MOE?

    I suspect this one does, but precious few others......
    TNS had a 6% Labour lead, but that was wisely ignored.
    So, most polls show the parties level pegging, with a couple of outliers?

    Thought so.
  • DaemonBarber
    DaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    BenM said:

    Now that is a truly frightening poll for Labour.

    Oh dear. UKIP down, Tories up. Just as was supposed to happen.

    This could be the pivot.

    Just going away to tuck into some humble pie. May be a while.

    Nah, I think this one will prove to be an outlier... Put the pie back in the fridge for now.
  • compouter2
    compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    I don't think there will be enough tissues in the UK if The Good Lord out-Ashcrofts the ICM.

    Some PB Hodges will bash themselves dry.
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    36

    36

    36

    36

    36


  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Here's a hypothesis: the campaign was meant to be about it becoming clear that ed is crap. Perhaps the breakthrough revelation of last week is actually that ed is also a shit? He came across as a real shit in his pmq attack on Cameron, and it has backfired.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    MarqueeMark said:

    BREAKING: The Met Office have advised all residents in Merseyside to stay indoors. Apparrently there is a huge cloud of smug floating over Crosby.....

    All cats should remain indoors in fear of an attack,
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    compouter2 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    compouter2 said:

    Tory surge now on:

    Out of the last 28 polls Tory lead in 4

    How many of the last 28 polls have shown anyone ahead outside MOE?

    I suspect this one does, but precious few others......
    TNS had a 6% Labour lead, but that was wisely ignored.
    That was OK, I think you're thinking of the 11% phone poll lead.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    First the caveat. That must be an outlier/rogue (never sure what the technical difference is between them).

    Now I'm going to sit in the corner and p1ss myself laughing :smiley:

    I doubt if the Conservatives were really on 28% in December, or are on 36% now.

  • compouter2
    compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    TheWatcher said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    First the caveat. That must be an outlier/rogue (never sure what the technical difference is between them).

    Now I'm going to sit in the corner and p1ss myself laughing :smiley:

    Buy Kleenex shares.....
    To wipe away Basil's tears.
    Premature Polling Ejaculation.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    compouter2 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    compouter2 said:

    Tory surge now on:

    Out of the last 28 polls Tory lead in 4

    How many of the last 28 polls have shown anyone ahead outside MOE?

    I suspect this one does, but precious few others......
    TNS had a 6% Labour lead, but that was wisely ignored.
    That was OK, I think you're thinking of the 11% phone poll lead.
    That wasn't a proper poll, and should be ignored.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Bond_James_Bond said:

    I love the way, whenever a poll comes out that's favourable to the Conservatives, the lefties insist that the PB Tories are all whooping and punching the air about it, and when it reverts the next week, they're then mocked for being suicidally downcast.

    It's almost as though lefties see the world in terms of deliberately dishonest 1930s cliches designed to perpetuate poverty for their own narrow electoral advantage, or something.

    Vicious cuts.

    Too true. Lefties are sub-human filth. Maybe a 30s-style solution is needed to rid us of them forever.

  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited February 2015
    If you think that Lab and Con are basically tied on 33/33 then 32%/36% is within MOE, all-be-it the Tories being +6 is outside MOE.
  • JonnyJimmy
    JonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    edited February 2015
    Is masturbation/ejaculation innuendo on the allowable list in the new PB censorship regime?
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    TGOHF said:

    "important issues" by ICM

    Immigration falling
    Economy up
    Education rising (where MORI has Dave leading Ed on raising school standards)

    Explains the VI...

    Spot on. Negative Punch & Judy [re Tax scams/NHS) can only shore up the core vote. The economy will decide the result next May. And that leaves Labour with no cards.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    BenM said:

    Now that is a truly frightening poll for Labour.

    Oh dear. UKIP down, Tories up. Just as was supposed to happen.

    This could be the pivot.

    Just going away to tuck into some humble pie. May be a while.

    I expect there'll be polls putting Labour ahead, in the future.

  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    TGOHF said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    For those wot missed it, ELBOW for week-ending 15th Feb:

    Labour lead 1.5% largest for 4 weeks
    Labour's 33.9% largest ELBOW score this year
    UKIP have their lowest ELBOW score since 5th October
    LibDem lead of 1.3% over Greens largest for 5 weeks
    Greens lowest score of 6.2% this year

    Are you still a peak Kipper denier Sunil ?
    ELBOW never lies :)
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    Never mind lads, Ed has been on the telly again today. That should move his numbers...

    @JoeWatts_: Cash-in-hand row overshadows Ed Miliband's apprenticeships announcement... http://t.co/qigdo9gY7h by @JoeMurphyLondon
  • compouter2
    compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    JonnyJimmy said:

    Is masturbation/ejaculation innuendo on the allowable list in the new PB censorship regime?

    ARF!
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    Clearly an outlier (or ahead of the developing trend, as I prefer to see it...).

    But is it possible that Ed on the news talking about how rank the baby-eating Tories are whilst Labour are draped in angelic white has maybe, just maybe, led people to think that Ed Miliband is an opportunistic little shit?
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    ICM. It is the hope that is killing us.
  • timmo
    timmo Posts: 1,469
    So the Tories could really be on 39 and Lab on 29?
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    edited February 2015
    Smarmeron said:

    And here it is, Ed B's actual comment.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02k40z5

    Of course the more telling comment was EdB's response, (to an excellent John Pienaar) that for a Lab supporter to structure their donation so as to be tax efficient, was "small beer".

    He did not say there was nothing wrong with it in spirit, his only response that vs the Cons it was "small beer".
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    SouthamObserver said:

    Bond_James_Bond said:

    I love the way, whenever a poll comes out that's favourable to the Conservatives, the lefties insist that the PB Tories are all whooping and punching the air about it, and when it reverts the next week, they're then mocked for being suicidally downcast.

    It's almost as though lefties see the world in terms of deliberately dishonest 1930s cliches designed to perpetuate poverty for their own narrow electoral advantage, or something.

    Vicious cuts.

    Too true. Lefties are sub-human filth. Maybe a 30s-style solution is needed to rid us of them forever.

    Oh dear - you've been eating some of Compouter's sour grapes again
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    edited February 2015
    We are 30 days from the budget (and the start of the general election campaign proper)

    If the Guardian/ICM follow their usual strategy, they will poll straight after the budget.

    Most of us are expecting the most nakedly partisan budget of all time, if this an outlier, and the Tories go back with ICM, then it won't be the start the Tories want.

    If this poll isn't an outlier, and the Tories get a budget boost, then we could see the first major phone poll of the campaign with the Tories around 8% ahead, which won't be how Labour want the campaign to begin.
  • Bond_James_Bond
    Bond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    edited February 2015
    MaxPB said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Ah, Miliband's face has been splashed all over the media.

    No wonder Labour are desperate to keep photos of Ed's nowhere near their campaign literature.

    Lucy Powell's strategy of more Ed, more of the time seems to be working as intended.
    The Tories' characterisation of Labour's leader has always been 100% accurate. As a party, they are exceptionally shrewd judges of political character.

    The Tony Blair demon eyes poster was a thoroughly fair assessment, now widely recognised as such. Brown they characterised accurately as a vicious, unstable and spendthrift buffoon; Kinnock as a vacuous rambling ginger nitwit; Foot as a daft old fool who wasn't in control of his own wardrobe, much less any putative cabinet.

    Whatever they message about Miliband is likely to be equally perceptive.

    Labour simply isn't in the same league when it comes to articulating the problem with the other side's leader. They fall headfirst into the trap Don Corleone warned against: don't hate your enemies, it clouds your judgment. So they're "good" at articulating why they personally hate the current Tory leader - there was the astonishingly hypocritical personal smearing of Major, the anti-Semitic campaign against Howard, and the incisive critique that Cameron was a toff - but that's about as thoughtful and persuasive as it ever gets. There is no reason why anyone else - anyone morally competent - should hate them for the reasons Labour does.

    It is very instructive that we tend to look back on ex Tory leaders as good blokes whose view is worth hearing, whereas we look back on former Labour ones as evil, vicious nutters who have rightly disappeared into shameful obscurity.
  • Stereotomy
    Stereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Bond_James_Bond said:

    I love the way, whenever a poll comes out that's favourable to the Conservatives, the lefties insist that the PB Tories are all whooping and punching the air about it, and when it reverts the next week, they're then mocked for being suicidally downcast.

    I'm failing to see the inconsistency here...
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    The Tories are between 34-36 with ICM, Ipsos and Ashcroft - phone polls.

  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    felix said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Bond_James_Bond said:

    I love the way, whenever a poll comes out that's favourable to the Conservatives, the lefties insist that the PB Tories are all whooping and punching the air about it, and when it reverts the next week, they're then mocked for being suicidally downcast.

    It's almost as though lefties see the world in terms of deliberately dishonest 1930s cliches designed to perpetuate poverty for their own narrow electoral advantage, or something.

    Vicious cuts.

    Too true. Lefties are sub-human filth. Maybe a 30s-style solution is needed to rid us of them forever.

    Oh dear - you've been eating some of Compouter's sour grapes again

    No, I've just been reading Mr Bond's posts.

  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TOPPING
    The measure of the beer comes out on Thursday from what I gather.
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    Ishmael_X said:

    Here's a hypothesis: the campaign was meant to be about it becoming clear that ed is crap. Perhaps the breakthrough revelation of last week is actually that ed is also a shit? He came across as a real shit in his pmq attack on Cameron, and it has backfired.

    I'd say a shit and a hypocrite.

    Now there's a good argument for saying that a shit and a hypocrite is *exactly* who you want to lead the country, but I think most people moved on from the nineteenth century a while ago
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    I wish I still had an original Tony Blair demon eyes poster. Sadly a lot of stuff got binned in early May 1997.... The heart wasn't quite into being reminded of the pasting we got.....
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited February 2015
    Two things

    1) I went to see the theatre production of the Kings Speech at Chichester Festival Theatre. It was OUTSTANDINGLY GOOD> its going on tour its highly recommended. I think its best if you (like me) had not seen trhe film and have nothing to compare to.

    2) I was only thinking last night that things were looking a bit grim for the Tories...

    I reckon a lot of waverers with interesting bookkeeping practises are getting a bit worried about Ed.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    JonnyJimmy said:

    Is masturbation/ejaculation innuendo on the allowable list in the new PB censorship regime?

    Ejaculate? In our moment of triumph!? I think you overestimate their chances!
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    I feel a PJ & Duncan themed nighthawks coming up

    Ant and Dec criticise Labour and Ed Miliband

    'Staunchly Labour' TV presenters say the party has lost its way and claim they cannot see Mr Miliband leading the country

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11415678/Ant-and-Dec-criticise-Labour-and-Ed-Miliband.html
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    Good lead for the Tories. Let's see the next few. Wasn't there an ICM a month or so back which gave the Tories 3/4% lead ?

    Any change in methodology ?

    My worry about the polling in GE2015 is that some polling organisation(s) are going to have egg on their faces. They all cannot be correct.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    SophyRidgeSky: Why Twitter's reaction to Labour's apprenticeship pledge gives an insight into the election ahead. Me for @SkyNews http://t.co/c9zTMC9zbC
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    All the pollsters are in flux, and the ICM poll is definitely and outlier or perhaps a spoof as the ICM bosses fear of UKIP is now showing up in the polls as well as in words.

    In July 2014 ICM also had UKIP on 9% with a fall of 7 points. They are pathetic.

    Mind you the C4 attack on UKIP tonight - which is sponsored by the EU - may see that channel in trouble.

  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    The Labour-supporting CWU union has been asked to fund a Green Party candidate standing against a shadow minister.

    Any support for a politician opposing Labour would threaten the union's historical link to the party.
    @rosschawkins: "If as a consequence of that the Labour party says 'we no longer want you', so be it." http://t.co/qXptNkPkdf
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    edited February 2015
    surbiton said:

    Good lead for the Tories. Let's see the next few. Wasn't there an ICM a month or so back which gave the Tories 3/4% lead ?

    No there . The last Tory lead with ICM was back in July, of 1%
  • Bond_James_Bond
    Bond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Ishmael_X said:

    Here's a hypothesis: the campaign was meant to be about it becoming clear that ed is crap. Perhaps the breakthrough revelation of last week is actually that ed is also a shit? He came across as a real shit in his pmq attack on Cameron, and it has backfired.

    Ed has got away with it so far because he's a nebbisch but exposing himself as a scumbag is proving to be an interesting profile raising strategy.

    I'm sure he's surrounded by very clever people who know what they're doing. They know how to spend my money better than I do, that's for sure.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    MikeK said:

    All the pollsters are in flux, and the ICM poll is definitely and outlier or perhaps a spoof as the ICM bosses fear of UKIP is now showing up in the polls as well as in words.

    In July 2014 ICM also had UKIP on 9% with a fall of 7 points. They are pathetic.

    Mind you the C4 attack on UKIP tonight - which is sponsored by the EU - may see that channel in trouble.

    dribble
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    I'm laughing at length about this poll. If true it'd be epic - I suspect an aberration of 50 Shades.
    Sean_F said:

    The Conservatives would win 311 seats on these numbers, according to Baxter.

  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I feel a PJ & Duncan themed nighthawks coming up

    Ant and Dec criticise Labour and Ed Miliband

    'Staunchly Labour' TV presenters say the party has lost its way and claim they cannot see Mr Miliband leading the country

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11415678/Ant-and-Dec-criticise-Labour-and-Ed-Miliband.html

    Have they got any bright ideas what to do? If only they knew of an obscure piece of jungle where Ed could be confined until 9 th May.....
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MikeK said:

    All the pollsters are in flux, and the ICM poll is definitely and outlier or perhaps a spoof as the ICM bosses fear of UKIP is now showing up in the polls as well as in words.

    In July 2014 ICM also had UKIP on 9% with a fall of 7 points. They are pathetic.

    Mind you the C4 attack on UKIP tonight - which is sponsored by the EU - may see that channel in trouble.

    You angling for an early settlement on our Kipper over 17% bet ? Let's talk numbers.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We are 30 days from the budget (and the start of the general election campaign proper)

    If the Guardian/ICM follow their usual strategy, they will poll straight after the budget.

    Most of us are expecting the most nakedly partisan budget of all time, if this an outlier, and the Tories go back with ICM, then it won't be the start the Tories want.

    If this poll isn't an outlier, and the Tories get a budget boost, then we could see the first major phone poll of the campaign with the Tories around 8% ahead, which won't be how Labour want the campaign to begin.

    PB Tory propaganda :)
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I feel a PJ & Duncan themed nighthawks coming up

    Ant and Dec criticise Labour and Ed Miliband

    'Staunchly Labour' TV presenters say the party has lost its way and claim they cannot see Mr Miliband leading the country

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11415678/Ant-and-Dec-criticise-Labour-and-Ed-Miliband.html

    Ant is so staunchly Labour he voted Tory at the last election.

  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    MikeK said:

    All the pollsters are in flux, and the ICM poll is definitely and outlier or perhaps a spoof as the ICM bosses fear of UKIP is now showing up in the polls as well as in words.

    In July 2014 ICM also had UKIP on 9% with a fall of 7 points. They are pathetic.

    Do you actually think ICM is persecuting UKIP? Are you on drugs?

  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    Smarmeron said:

    @TOPPING
    The measure of the beer comes out on Thursday from what I gather.

    Sandwiches is extra.
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Scott_P said:

    SophyRidgeSky: Why Twitter's reaction to Labour's apprenticeship pledge gives an insight into the election ahead. Me for @SkyNews http://t.co/c9zTMC9zbC

    'Free owls for every school leaver'
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Off the back of these numbers, if the Tories can hold at least 295 seats and the Lib Dems 25 seats (incl. Nick Clegg) that might be enough for a loose 2nd time-limited Con-LD coalition IMHO. I've no doubt that'd be the preferred LD option rather than a dirty Lab-LD-SNP three-way when Labour had lost decisively on both seats and votes.

    There would need to be a C&S deal with the DUP to make that work, and give a small 'effective' overall majority, but a bit more devolution and funding would see to that.
  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I feel a PJ & Duncan themed nighthawks coming up

    Ant and Dec criticise Labour and Ed Miliband

    'Staunchly Labour' TV presenters say the party has lost its way and claim they cannot see Mr Miliband leading the country

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11415678/Ant-and-Dec-criticise-Labour-and-Ed-Miliband.html

    Staunchly Labour Ant who voted Tory at the last election?
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    compouter2 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    compouter2 said:

    Tory surge now on:

    Out of the last 28 polls Tory lead in 4

    How many of the last 28 polls have shown anyone ahead outside MOE?

    I suspect this one does, but precious few others......
    TNS had a 6% Labour lead, but that was wisely ignored.
    That was OK, I think you're thinking of the 11% phone poll lead.
    That wasn't a proper poll, and should be ignored.
    Was intended to be a VI poll, by TNS's own admission.
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    In all the fuss about ICM, I see that the Populus poll is quietly ignored. :)
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    A Tory Wankers eye chart?

    Great fontasm
    MarkHopkins said:

    36

    36

    36

    36

    36


  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    edited February 2015
    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I feel a PJ & Duncan themed nighthawks coming up

    Ant and Dec criticise Labour and Ed Miliband

    'Staunchly Labour' TV presenters say the party has lost its way and claim they cannot see Mr Miliband leading the country

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11415678/Ant-and-Dec-criticise-Labour-and-Ed-Miliband.html

    Ant is so staunchly Labour he voted Tory at the last election.

    Lord be praised! Finally, FINALLY, a way to tell them apart....
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited February 2015
    Casino_Royale said:

    I've no doubt that'd be the preferred LD option rather than a dirty Lab-LD-SNP three-way when Labour had lost decisively on both seats and votes.

    I'm having disturbing images of Ed, Alex and Nick having a threesome... :open_mouth:

    Think I'd better have a lie down!

    Bye. :D
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-31449362

    I really don't know why the Israelis bother.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Meanwhile, in euroland:
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/feb/16/greek-bailout-eurozone-ministers-hold-crunch-talks-live-updates

    Looks like Greece is short on any allies...
  • Stereotomy
    Stereotomy Posts: 4,092
    MikeK said:

    In all the fuss about ICM, I see that the Populus poll is quietly ignored. :)

    Non-outliers aren't interesting
  • saddened
    saddened Posts: 2,245
    MikeK said:

    All the pollsters are in flux, and the ICM poll is definitely and outlier or perhaps a spoof as the ICM bosses fear of UKIP is now showing up in the polls as well as in words.

    In July 2014 ICM also had UKIP on 9% with a fall of 7 points. They are pathetic.

    Mind you the C4 attack on UKIP tonight - which is sponsored by the EU - may see that channel in trouble.

    Post of the day. I'll let you all pick in which category yourselves.
  • dugarbandier
    dugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I feel a PJ & Duncan themed nighthawks coming up

    Ant and Dec criticise Labour and Ed Miliband

    'Staunchly Labour' TV presenters say the party has lost its way and claim they cannot see Mr Miliband leading the country

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11415678/Ant-and-Dec-criticise-Labour-and-Ed-Miliband.html

    I should think the alphabetical order L-R pair have tax -efficient investments, being shrewd chaps...
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    @viewcode - apologies, I've been away on leave for a few days. I'll respond to your message tonight.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    In case JackW can't post for some reason, this might be a time to say (I think I have this right)

    ED MILIBAND WILL NEVER BE PRIME MINISTER
  • dugarbandier
    dugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    MarqueeMark said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I feel a PJ & Duncan themed nighthawks coming up

    Ant and Dec criticise Labour and Ed Miliband

    'Staunchly Labour' TV presenters say the party has lost its way and claim they cannot see Mr Miliband leading the country

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11415678/Ant-and-Dec-criticise-Labour-and-Ed-Miliband.html

    Ant is so staunchly Labour he voted Tory at the last election.

    Lord be praised! Finally, FINALLY, a way to tell them apart....
    Ironically, Ant always stands on the left
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    compouter2 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    compouter2 said:

    Tory surge now on:

    Out of the last 28 polls Tory lead in 4

    How many of the last 28 polls have shown anyone ahead outside MOE?

    I suspect this one does, but precious few others......
    TNS had a 6% Labour lead, but that was wisely ignored.
    That was OK, I think you're thinking of the 11% phone poll lead.
    That wasn't a proper poll, and should be ignored.
    Was intended to be a VI poll, by TNS's own admission.
    It was a poll of Voting Intention; however it was not weighted so as to produce an estimate of Voting Intention.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    dugarbandier said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I feel a PJ & Duncan themed nighthawks coming up

    Ant and Dec criticise Labour and Ed Miliband

    'Staunchly Labour' TV presenters say the party has lost its way and claim they cannot see Mr Miliband leading the country

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11415678/Ant-and-Dec-criticise-Labour-and-Ed-Miliband.html

    Ant is so staunchly Labour he voted Tory at the last election.

    Lord be praised! Finally, FINALLY, a way to tell them apart....
    Ironically, Ant always stands on the left
    Alphabetical L-R

    Should imagine they will face a double mansion tax hit - no wonder they are getting ready to rhumble with Ed.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    edited February 2015
    I see that Ed was at JLR, talking about how amazing they are, a model for the country, and in the say breath still banging the tax avoidance / tax evasion drum. I hope he checked that the Tata group has clean hands when it comes to their tax affairs....

    "The Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) on Friday pulled up the income tax department (ITD) for allowing irregular tax exemption to two Tata Group trusts, involving tax implication of a little over Rs 1,000 crore."

    http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/tata-trusts-given-irregular-tax-exemptions-cag-113121300673_1.html

    "issued showcause notices to Tata Motors along with three other companies for alleged tax evasion of central excise duty to the tune of Rs 17 crore in the last fiscal (2006-07)."

    http://www.telegraphindia.com/1070414/asp/jamshedpur/story_7646415.asp

    I could go on...
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Plato said:

    I'm laughing at length about this poll. If true it'd be epic - I suspect an aberration of 50 Shades.

    Sean_F said:

    The Conservatives would win 311 seats on these numbers, according to Baxter.

    The Baxtered results are very similar (for the Tories) to the Lebo forecast I heard last week.
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TOPPING

    Possibly more caviare and champagne than beer and sandwiches?
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015
    Anyone seen Big John Owls?

    He's should have Baxtered the numbers by now. Always does when other polls are published.
  • dugarbandier
    dugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    TGOHF said:

    dugarbandier said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I feel a PJ & Duncan themed nighthawks coming up

    Ant and Dec criticise Labour and Ed Miliband

    'Staunchly Labour' TV presenters say the party has lost its way and claim they cannot see Mr Miliband leading the country

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11415678/Ant-and-Dec-criticise-Labour-and-Ed-Miliband.html

    Ant is so staunchly Labour he voted Tory at the last election.

    Lord be praised! Finally, FINALLY, a way to tell them apart....
    Ironically, Ant always stands on the left
    Alphabetical L-R

    Should imagine they will face a double mansion tax hit - no wonder they are getting ready to rhumble with Ed.
    100 pts to your team if you know which was PJ and which Duncan
  • logical_song
    logical_song Posts: 10,082
    GIN1138 said:

    MikeK said:

    All the pollsters are in flux, and the ICM poll is definitely and outlier or perhaps a spoof as the ICM bosses fear of UKIP is now showing up in the polls as well as in words.

    In July 2014 ICM also had UKIP on 9% with a fall of 7 points. They are pathetic.

    Do you actually think ICM is persecuting UKIP? Are you on drugs?

    It must be an outlier because it doesn't agree with MikeK. The election will probably be an outlier too.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    Tissue_Price said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    compouter2 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    compouter2 said:

    Tory surge now on:

    Out of the last 28 polls Tory lead in 4

    How many of the last 28 polls have shown anyone ahead outside MOE?

    I suspect this one does, but precious few others......
    TNS had a 6% Labour lead, but that was wisely ignored.
    That was OK, I think you're thinking of the 11% phone poll lead.
    That wasn't a proper poll, and should be ignored.
    Was intended to be a VI poll, by TNS's own admission.
    It was a poll of Voting Intention; however it was not weighted so as to produce an estimate of Voting Intention.
    And you would feel the same way if it (for argument's sake) it suggested a TORY lead of 11?
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    TGOHF said:

    dugarbandier said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I feel a PJ & Duncan themed nighthawks coming up

    Ant and Dec criticise Labour and Ed Miliband

    'Staunchly Labour' TV presenters say the party has lost its way and claim they cannot see Mr Miliband leading the country

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11415678/Ant-and-Dec-criticise-Labour-and-Ed-Miliband.html

    Ant is so staunchly Labour he voted Tory at the last election.

    Lord be praised! Finally, FINALLY, a way to tell them apart....
    Ironically, Ant always stands on the left
    Alphabetical L-R

    Should imagine they will face a double mansion tax hit - no wonder they are getting ready to rhumble with Ed.
    Whereas Ed Miliband stands on the left and David Miliband stands on the right. However they are rarely pictured together these days. Psyche.
  • logical_song
    logical_song Posts: 10,082
    MikeK said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-31449362

    I really don't know why the Israelis bother.

    Maybe because their doctors are civilised.
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    edited February 2015
    Gotta laugh at some of the responses to the poll. MikeK 'ICM are pathetic' is lmao.

    Might be an outlier though. If its not it would put the Tories a whisker from an outright majority and that's before their election budget.

    Cripes, said this morning its a hard election to call. Money to be had but also big bucks to be squandered. Spreads monitored hawkishly = answer.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    compouter2 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    compouter2 said:

    Tory surge now on:

    Out of the last 28 polls Tory lead in 4

    How many of the last 28 polls have shown anyone ahead outside MOE?

    I suspect this one does, but precious few others......
    TNS had a 6% Labour lead, but that was wisely ignored.
    That was OK, I think you're thinking of the 11% phone poll lead.
    That wasn't a proper poll, and should be ignored.
    Was intended to be a VI poll, by TNS's own admission.
    It was a poll of Voting Intention; however it was not weighted so as to produce an estimate of Voting Intention.
    And you would feel the same way if it (for argument's sake) it suggested a TORY lead of 11?
    Yes of course I would. It's ludicrous that it's still on Wikipedia. Suit yourselves, though.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    logical_song said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MikeK said:

    All the pollsters are in flux, and the ICM poll is definitely and outlier or perhaps a spoof as the ICM bosses fear of UKIP is now showing up in the polls as well as in words.

    In July 2014 ICM also had UKIP on 9% with a fall of 7 points. They are pathetic.

    Do you actually think ICM is persecuting UKIP? Are you on drugs?

    It must be an outlier because it doesn't agree with MikeK. The election will probably be an outlier too.
    No, no, it's not an outlier. It's part of an EU funded conspiracy to to do UKIP down...

  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    GIN1138 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I've no doubt that'd be the preferred LD option rather than a dirty Lab-LD-SNP three-way when Labour had lost decisively on both seats and votes.

    I'm having disturbing images of Ed, Alex and Nick having a threesome... :open_mouth:

    Think I'd better have a lie down!

    Bye. :D
    I'm sure Nicola Sturgeon would be involved too.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    Plato said:

    A Tory Wankers eye chart?

    Great fontasm

    MarkHopkins said:

    36

    36

    36

    36

    36


    OUTLIER-TASTIC :)
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    logical_song said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MikeK said:

    All the pollsters are in flux, and the ICM poll is definitely and outlier or perhaps a spoof as the ICM bosses fear of UKIP is now showing up in the polls as well as in words.

    In July 2014 ICM also had UKIP on 9% with a fall of 7 points. They are pathetic.

    Do you actually think ICM is persecuting UKIP? Are you on drugs?

    It must be an outlier because it doesn't agree with MikeK. The election will probably be an outlier too.
    lol.

    Best PB comment of all time :)
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    TheWatcher said:

    Anyone seen Big John Owls?

    He's should have Baxtered the numbers by now. Always does when other polls are published.

    He's updating his CV. May have to go back to work to fund his political betting losses...
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    MarqueeMark said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I feel a PJ & Duncan themed nighthawks coming up

    Ant and Dec criticise Labour and Ed Miliband

    'Staunchly Labour' TV presenters say the party has lost its way and claim they cannot see Mr Miliband leading the country

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11415678/Ant-and-Dec-criticise-Labour-and-Ed-Miliband.html

    Ant is so staunchly Labour he voted Tory at the last election.

    Lord be praised! Finally, FINALLY, a way to tell them apart....

    But which one is he?

  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Tissue_Price said:

    isam said:

    If this poll was the result then I would lose quite a lot of money!

    Then again, if 99% of the polls this year were right I would win quite a lot...

    Were you not anticipating the polls moving?
    They move every day don't they?
This discussion has been closed.

Categories