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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on the Copenhagen shootings and the day’s first poll showing LAB 2% ahead
Marf on the Copenhagen shootings pic.twitter.com/gUxVyMOQAU
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Stuart Wheeler, who has given Ukip more than £700,000 during the past five years, has threatened to stop donating to the party after a row over the fate of his ally Neil Hamilton, the party’s deputy chairman.
But in an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Wheeler said he had decided to give a further £100,000 during the next few months in an effort to secure the seats Ukip is targeting at May’s election.
Despite his donations, Mr Wheeler predicted the party would fall well short of the £7m-£8m target he said had been set by Nigel Farage, the party’s leader.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bbce45fa-ac7f-11e4-9aaa-00144feab7de.html#axzz3RudC7aHV
Also, I see that Ed Miliband is being business friendly again...YOU MUST TAKE APRRENTICES OR ELSE...don't mean to be funny, but not all businesses are applicable for taking apprentices. Also, he is again making these blanket commitments that all young people with x grades get one, the only way that is possible is if the state are going to start creating lots of them in the public sector, which means one thing...more spending.
Gordo used to make these kind of promises and of course found it just isn't that simple. Same with Ed's "I will get x thousand more home carers" even though he can't make that happen.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5325590/Ed-Balls-and-Yvette-Cooper-flipped-homes-three-times-MPs-expenses.html
Both Ed's talking plenty of spheroids at the moment, sadly a lot of voters will believe them.
"I have given money for two particular constituencies — South Thanet and Ashford. "
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ashford/
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UKIP's best fundraising year to date was 2013, £2.4 million.
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/political-parties-campaigning-and-donations/political-parties-annual-accounts/details-of-accounts
Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll
On the plus side, the more leftward he travels, the more clear-blue-water opens up and the more polarised the election becomes. In this event, I would expect to see some claw-back from the UKIP highs and a reduction in others.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02k40z5
Edit: not for long, obviously
I think I might have damaged a rib or two laughing.
As Izzy says any workman can demand cash. What would be interesting is knowing whether you bear any responsibility if he says i'll give you £50 discount for cash without receipt?
Cross over.
Outlier?
Call in the respondents for re-education.
Just as well his major Economy announcement wasn't distracted by any extraneous factors.....
Share price in tisues has just rocketed.
Those goalposts have just dropped onto Basil's head.
Oh well, I expect normal business will resume shortly, but you'd need a heart of stone...etc, etc...
Don't disappear now, TSE ...... just when we need you to present those deep blue bar charts.
Perhaps OGH will do the honours instead?
Obviously not as confident as the Tory Pom Pom girls on here
It's up to the trader to provide an invoice. Labour as ever don't understand either small companies or the tax laws.
I've heard its only their final poll that matters...
But having come closest to predicting three of the last four general elections, ICM’s regular phone poll for the Guardian is seen as the gold standard, and so Monday’s result will bring the Tories particular cheer.
No wonder Labour are desperate to keep photos of Ed's nowhere near their campaign literature.
"But having come closest to predicting three of the last four general elections, ICM’s regular phone poll for the Guardian is seen as the gold standard, and so Monday’s result will bring the Tories particular cheer."
Well I sometimes read the Guardian but had no idea they read me!
Now I'm going to sit in the corner and p1ss myself laughing
1) 1 in 20 polls is an outlier
2) You can't call a trend based on one poll, we need to some more polling
3) But it is ICM, the Gold Standard, but 1 and 2 still apply.
We are all cartoonists now!
Heartless ex-Tory contributing to unemployment.
Just goes to show how damaging it was to Conservative chances at this election to lose that vote.
Out of the last 28 polls Tory lead in 4
Then again, if 99% of the polls this year were right I would win quite a lot...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2954033/JAMES-FORSYTH-Watch-Ed-tax-triumph-bite-backside.html
"Ever since Miliband was told on Thursday of Lord Fink’s admission, just before delivering a speech on education at his old school, the mood in the Labour Party has been transformed.
Even frontbenchers who used to fear the worst are now wondering how long Tory discipline can hold if Labour’s slim lead in the polls continues.
One of them quips: ‘I wonder when they’ll start to get the willies.’"
John Rentoul either posts here, reads here, or thinks the same as some of the posters on here, as ideas first floated here often end up in his column.....
I think the polling point that 'Miliband has poorer ratings in Scotland than Cameron' first saw the light of day here......
The Tories are feeling the surge, but it will be a b*gger to clean off of their keyboards
Really we should just treat all polls as new information and feed them into our prior expectation - and that prior expectation should be affected both by other polls, and by events.
I have my own theory, that we're going to see more outliers in 6 party politics.
Edit: I have asked if ICM have changed their methodology, but normally they flag up in advance if they have undertaken a change in methodology.
"Another day down - another day without a breakthrough for the Tories - another day closer to Ed Miliband being PM.
I wonder if the press will suddenly panic and go into reverse. Realise the inevitable and try and buy some favours from Ed?"
Now he knows what recency bias is.
That said, it is obviously in the bag for Dave now. All we need is a deck of cards to occupy our time between now and the formality of May 7.
For example, in December they had the Tories on 28% - Now they have them at 36%...
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/icm
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/567038686290653184
Labour lead 1.5% largest for 4 weeks
Labour's 33.9% largest ELBOW score this year
UKIP have their lowest ELBOW score 14.2% since 5th October
LibDem lead of 1.3% over Greens largest for 5 weeks
Greens lowest score 6.2% of this year
It's usually Lord Ashcroft, but this time ICM. Not sure what to make of it.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/567039449570107393
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/567055328991514624