For those wot missed it, ELBOW for week-ending 15th Feb:
Labour lead 1.5% largest for 4 weeks Labour's 33.9% largest ELBOW score this year UKIP have their lowest ELBOW score since 5th October LibDem lead of 1.3% over Greens largest for 5 weeks Greens lowest score of 6.2% this year
James Forsyth: At weekend Labour shadows were wondering how long Tory discipline could hold in the face of a persistent Labour lead, that’s why ICM matters
I love the way, whenever a poll comes out that's favourable to the Conservatives, the lefties insist that the PB Tories are all whooping and punching the air about it, and when it reverts the next week, they're then mocked for being suicidally downcast.
It's almost as though lefties see the world in terms of deliberately dishonest 1930s cliches designed to perpetuate poverty for their own narrow electoral advantage, or something.
Here's a hypothesis: the campaign was meant to be about it becoming clear that ed is crap. Perhaps the breakthrough revelation of last week is actually that ed is also a shit? He came across as a real shit in his pmq attack on Cameron, and it has backfired.
I love the way, whenever a poll comes out that's favourable to the Conservatives, the lefties insist that the PB Tories are all whooping and punching the air about it, and when it reverts the next week, they're then mocked for being suicidally downcast.
It's almost as though lefties see the world in terms of deliberately dishonest 1930s cliches designed to perpetuate poverty for their own narrow electoral advantage, or something.
Vicious cuts.
Too true. Lefties are sub-human filth. Maybe a 30s-style solution is needed to rid us of them forever.
Immigration falling Economy up Education rising (where MORI has Dave leading Ed on raising school standards)
Explains the VI...
Spot on. Negative Punch & Judy [re Tax scams/NHS) can only shore up the core vote. The economy will decide the result next May. And that leaves Labour with no cards.
For those wot missed it, ELBOW for week-ending 15th Feb:
Labour lead 1.5% largest for 4 weeks Labour's 33.9% largest ELBOW score this year UKIP have their lowest ELBOW score since 5th October LibDem lead of 1.3% over Greens largest for 5 weeks Greens lowest score of 6.2% this year
Clearly an outlier (or ahead of the developing trend, as I prefer to see it...).
But is it possible that Ed on the news talking about how rank the baby-eating Tories are whilst Labour are draped in angelic white has maybe, just maybe, led people to think that Ed Miliband is an opportunistic little shit?
Of course the more telling comment was EdB's response, (to an excellent John Pienaar) that for a Lab supporter to structure their donation so as to be tax efficient, was "small beer".
He did not say there was nothing wrong with it in spirit, his only response that vs the Cons it was "small beer".
I love the way, whenever a poll comes out that's favourable to the Conservatives, the lefties insist that the PB Tories are all whooping and punching the air about it, and when it reverts the next week, they're then mocked for being suicidally downcast.
It's almost as though lefties see the world in terms of deliberately dishonest 1930s cliches designed to perpetuate poverty for their own narrow electoral advantage, or something.
Vicious cuts.
Too true. Lefties are sub-human filth. Maybe a 30s-style solution is needed to rid us of them forever.
Oh dear - you've been eating some of Compouter's sour grapes again
We are 30 days from the budget (and the start of the general election campaign proper)
If the Guardian/ICM follow their usual strategy, they will poll straight after the budget.
Most of us are expecting the most nakedly partisan budget of all time, if this an outlier, and the Tories go back with ICM, then it won't be the start the Tories want.
If this poll isn't an outlier, and the Tories get a budget boost, then we could see the first major phone poll of the campaign with the Tories around 8% ahead, which won't be how Labour want the campaign to begin.
Ah, Miliband's face has been splashed all over the media.
No wonder Labour are desperate to keep photos of Ed's nowhere near their campaign literature.
Lucy Powell's strategy of more Ed, more of the time seems to be working as intended.
The Tories' characterisation of Labour's leader has always been 100% accurate. As a party, they are exceptionally shrewd judges of political character.
The Tony Blair demon eyes poster was a thoroughly fair assessment, now widely recognised as such. Brown they characterised accurately as a vicious, unstable and spendthrift buffoon; Kinnock as a vacuous rambling ginger nitwit; Foot as a daft old fool who wasn't in control of his own wardrobe, much less any putative cabinet.
Whatever they message about Miliband is likely to be equally perceptive.
Labour simply isn't in the same league when it comes to articulating the problem with the other side's leader. They fall headfirst into the trap Don Corleone warned against: don't hate your enemies, it clouds your judgment. So they're "good" at articulating why they personally hate the current Tory leader - there was the astonishingly hypocritical personal smearing of Major, the anti-Semitic campaign against Howard, and the incisive critique that Cameron was a toff - but that's about as thoughtful and persuasive as it ever gets. There is no reason why anyone else - anyone morally competent - should hate them for the reasons Labour does.
It is very instructive that we tend to look back on ex Tory leaders as good blokes whose view is worth hearing, whereas we look back on former Labour ones as evil, vicious nutters who have rightly disappeared into shameful obscurity.
I love the way, whenever a poll comes out that's favourable to the Conservatives, the lefties insist that the PB Tories are all whooping and punching the air about it, and when it reverts the next week, they're then mocked for being suicidally downcast.
I love the way, whenever a poll comes out that's favourable to the Conservatives, the lefties insist that the PB Tories are all whooping and punching the air about it, and when it reverts the next week, they're then mocked for being suicidally downcast.
It's almost as though lefties see the world in terms of deliberately dishonest 1930s cliches designed to perpetuate poverty for their own narrow electoral advantage, or something.
Vicious cuts.
Too true. Lefties are sub-human filth. Maybe a 30s-style solution is needed to rid us of them forever.
Oh dear - you've been eating some of Compouter's sour grapes again
Here's a hypothesis: the campaign was meant to be about it becoming clear that ed is crap. Perhaps the breakthrough revelation of last week is actually that ed is also a shit? He came across as a real shit in his pmq attack on Cameron, and it has backfired.
I'd say a shit and a hypocrite.
Now there's a good argument for saying that a shit and a hypocrite is *exactly* who you want to lead the country, but I think most people moved on from the nineteenth century a while ago
I wish I still had an original Tony Blair demon eyes poster. Sadly a lot of stuff got binned in early May 1997.... The heart wasn't quite into being reminded of the pasting we got.....
1) I went to see the theatre production of the Kings Speech at Chichester Festival Theatre. It was OUTSTANDINGLY GOOD> its going on tour its highly recommended. I think its best if you (like me) had not seen trhe film and have nothing to compare to.
2) I was only thinking last night that things were looking a bit grim for the Tories...
I reckon a lot of waverers with interesting bookkeeping practises are getting a bit worried about Ed.
SophyRidgeSky: Why Twitter's reaction to Labour's apprenticeship pledge gives an insight into the election ahead. Me for @SkyNewshttp://t.co/c9zTMC9zbC
All the pollsters are in flux, and the ICM poll is definitely and outlier or perhaps a spoof as the ICM bosses fear of UKIP is now showing up in the polls as well as in words.
In July 2014 ICM also had UKIP on 9% with a fall of 7 points. They are pathetic.
Mind you the C4 attack on UKIP tonight - which is sponsored by the EU - may see that channel in trouble.
Here's a hypothesis: the campaign was meant to be about it becoming clear that ed is crap. Perhaps the breakthrough revelation of last week is actually that ed is also a shit? He came across as a real shit in his pmq attack on Cameron, and it has backfired.
Ed has got away with it so far because he's a nebbisch but exposing himself as a scumbag is proving to be an interesting profile raising strategy.
I'm sure he's surrounded by very clever people who know what they're doing. They know how to spend my money better than I do, that's for sure.
All the pollsters are in flux, and the ICM poll is definitely and outlier or perhaps a spoof as the ICM bosses fear of UKIP is now showing up in the polls as well as in words.
In July 2014 ICM also had UKIP on 9% with a fall of 7 points. They are pathetic.
Mind you the C4 attack on UKIP tonight - which is sponsored by the EU - may see that channel in trouble.
All the pollsters are in flux, and the ICM poll is definitely and outlier or perhaps a spoof as the ICM bosses fear of UKIP is now showing up in the polls as well as in words.
In July 2014 ICM also had UKIP on 9% with a fall of 7 points. They are pathetic.
Mind you the C4 attack on UKIP tonight - which is sponsored by the EU - may see that channel in trouble.
You angling for an early settlement on our Kipper over 17% bet ? Let's talk numbers.
We are 30 days from the budget (and the start of the general election campaign proper)
If the Guardian/ICM follow their usual strategy, they will poll straight after the budget.
Most of us are expecting the most nakedly partisan budget of all time, if this an outlier, and the Tories go back with ICM, then it won't be the start the Tories want.
If this poll isn't an outlier, and the Tories get a budget boost, then we could see the first major phone poll of the campaign with the Tories around 8% ahead, which won't be how Labour want the campaign to begin.
All the pollsters are in flux, and the ICM poll is definitely and outlier or perhaps a spoof as the ICM bosses fear of UKIP is now showing up in the polls as well as in words.
In July 2014 ICM also had UKIP on 9% with a fall of 7 points. They are pathetic.
Do you actually think ICM is persecuting UKIP? Are you on drugs?
SophyRidgeSky: Why Twitter's reaction to Labour's apprenticeship pledge gives an insight into the election ahead. Me for @SkyNewshttp://t.co/c9zTMC9zbC
Off the back of these numbers, if the Tories can hold at least 295 seats and the Lib Dems 25 seats (incl. Nick Clegg) that might be enough for a loose 2nd time-limited Con-LD coalition IMHO. I've no doubt that'd be the preferred LD option rather than a dirty Lab-LD-SNP three-way when Labour had lost decisively on both seats and votes.
There would need to be a C&S deal with the DUP to make that work, and give a small 'effective' overall majority, but a bit more devolution and funding would see to that.
All the pollsters are in flux, and the ICM poll is definitely and outlier or perhaps a spoof as the ICM bosses fear of UKIP is now showing up in the polls as well as in words.
In July 2014 ICM also had UKIP on 9% with a fall of 7 points. They are pathetic.
Mind you the C4 attack on UKIP tonight - which is sponsored by the EU - may see that channel in trouble.
Post of the day. I'll let you all pick in which category yourselves.
I see that Ed was at JLR, talking about how amazing they are, a model for the country, and in the say breath still banging the tax avoidance / tax evasion drum. I hope he checked that the Tata group has clean hands when it comes to their tax affairs....
"The Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) on Friday pulled up the income tax department (ITD) for allowing irregular tax exemption to two Tata Group trusts, involving tax implication of a little over Rs 1,000 crore."
"issued showcause notices to Tata Motors along with three other companies for alleged tax evasion of central excise duty to the tune of Rs 17 crore in the last fiscal (2006-07)."
All the pollsters are in flux, and the ICM poll is definitely and outlier or perhaps a spoof as the ICM bosses fear of UKIP is now showing up in the polls as well as in words.
In July 2014 ICM also had UKIP on 9% with a fall of 7 points. They are pathetic.
Do you actually think ICM is persecuting UKIP? Are you on drugs?
It must be an outlier because it doesn't agree with MikeK. The election will probably be an outlier too.
All the pollsters are in flux, and the ICM poll is definitely and outlier or perhaps a spoof as the ICM bosses fear of UKIP is now showing up in the polls as well as in words.
In July 2014 ICM also had UKIP on 9% with a fall of 7 points. They are pathetic.
Do you actually think ICM is persecuting UKIP? Are you on drugs?
It must be an outlier because it doesn't agree with MikeK. The election will probably be an outlier too.
No, no, it's not an outlier. It's part of an EU funded conspiracy to to do UKIP down...
All the pollsters are in flux, and the ICM poll is definitely and outlier or perhaps a spoof as the ICM bosses fear of UKIP is now showing up in the polls as well as in words.
In July 2014 ICM also had UKIP on 9% with a fall of 7 points. They are pathetic.
Do you actually think ICM is persecuting UKIP? Are you on drugs?
It must be an outlier because it doesn't agree with MikeK. The election will probably be an outlier too.
Comments
I suspect this one does, but precious few others......
Oh dear. UKIP down, Tories up. Just as was supposed to happen.
This could be the pivot.
Just going away to tuck into some humble pie. May be a while.
Shares in Laptop cleaning equiptment - UP
Basils Goalposts - Down
At weekend Labour shadows were wondering how long Tory discipline could hold in the face of a persistent Labour lead, that’s why ICM matters
It's almost as though lefties see the world in terms of deliberately dishonest 1930s cliches designed to perpetuate poverty for their own narrow electoral advantage, or something.
Vicious cuts.
Immigration falling
Economy up
Education rising (where MORI has Dave leading Ed on raising school standards)
Explains the VI...
ICM = Gold STANDARD.
All the reds over confidence & gloating here at the weekend after 1 supposed good week was a new PB delight...
Thought so.
Some PB Hodges will bash themselves dry.
36
36
36
36
@JoeWatts_: Cash-in-hand row overshadows Ed Miliband's apprenticeships announcement... http://t.co/qigdo9gY7h by @JoeMurphyLondon
But is it possible that Ed on the news talking about how rank the baby-eating Tories are whilst Labour are draped in angelic white has maybe, just maybe, led people to think that Ed Miliband is an opportunistic little shit?
He did not say there was nothing wrong with it in spirit, his only response that vs the Cons it was "small beer".
If the Guardian/ICM follow their usual strategy, they will poll straight after the budget.
Most of us are expecting the most nakedly partisan budget of all time, if this an outlier, and the Tories go back with ICM, then it won't be the start the Tories want.
If this poll isn't an outlier, and the Tories get a budget boost, then we could see the first major phone poll of the campaign with the Tories around 8% ahead, which won't be how Labour want the campaign to begin.
The Tony Blair demon eyes poster was a thoroughly fair assessment, now widely recognised as such. Brown they characterised accurately as a vicious, unstable and spendthrift buffoon; Kinnock as a vacuous rambling ginger nitwit; Foot as a daft old fool who wasn't in control of his own wardrobe, much less any putative cabinet.
Whatever they message about Miliband is likely to be equally perceptive.
Labour simply isn't in the same league when it comes to articulating the problem with the other side's leader. They fall headfirst into the trap Don Corleone warned against: don't hate your enemies, it clouds your judgment. So they're "good" at articulating why they personally hate the current Tory leader - there was the astonishingly hypocritical personal smearing of Major, the anti-Semitic campaign against Howard, and the incisive critique that Cameron was a toff - but that's about as thoughtful and persuasive as it ever gets. There is no reason why anyone else - anyone morally competent - should hate them for the reasons Labour does.
It is very instructive that we tend to look back on ex Tory leaders as good blokes whose view is worth hearing, whereas we look back on former Labour ones as evil, vicious nutters who have rightly disappeared into shameful obscurity.
The measure of the beer comes out on Thursday from what I gather.
Now there's a good argument for saying that a shit and a hypocrite is *exactly* who you want to lead the country, but I think most people moved on from the nineteenth century a while ago
1) I went to see the theatre production of the Kings Speech at Chichester Festival Theatre. It was OUTSTANDINGLY GOOD> its going on tour its highly recommended. I think its best if you (like me) had not seen trhe film and have nothing to compare to.
2) I was only thinking last night that things were looking a bit grim for the Tories...
I reckon a lot of waverers with interesting bookkeeping practises are getting a bit worried about Ed.
Ant and Dec criticise Labour and Ed Miliband
'Staunchly Labour' TV presenters say the party has lost its way and claim they cannot see Mr Miliband leading the country
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11415678/Ant-and-Dec-criticise-Labour-and-Ed-Miliband.html
Any change in methodology ?
My worry about the polling in GE2015 is that some polling organisation(s) are going to have egg on their faces. They all cannot be correct.
In July 2014 ICM also had UKIP on 9% with a fall of 7 points. They are pathetic.
Mind you the C4 attack on UKIP tonight - which is sponsored by the EU - may see that channel in trouble.
I'm sure he's surrounded by very clever people who know what they're doing. They know how to spend my money better than I do, that's for sure.
There would need to be a C&S deal with the DUP to make that work, and give a small 'effective' overall majority, but a bit more devolution and funding would see to that.
Great fontasm
Think I'd better have a lie down!
Bye.
I really don't know why the Israelis bother.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/feb/16/greek-bailout-eurozone-ministers-hold-crunch-talks-live-updates
Looks like Greece is short on any allies...
ED MILIBAND WILL NEVER BE PRIME MINISTER
Should imagine they will face a double mansion tax hit - no wonder they are getting ready to rhumble with Ed.
"The Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) on Friday pulled up the income tax department (ITD) for allowing irregular tax exemption to two Tata Group trusts, involving tax implication of a little over Rs 1,000 crore."
http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/tata-trusts-given-irregular-tax-exemptions-cag-113121300673_1.html
"issued showcause notices to Tata Motors along with three other companies for alleged tax evasion of central excise duty to the tune of Rs 17 crore in the last fiscal (2006-07)."
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1070414/asp/jamshedpur/story_7646415.asp
I could go on...
Possibly more caviare and champagne than beer and sandwiches?
He's should have Baxtered the numbers by now. Always does when other polls are published.
Might be an outlier though. If its not it would put the Tories a whisker from an outright majority and that's before their election budget.
Cripes, said this morning its a hard election to call. Money to be had but also big bucks to be squandered. Spreads monitored hawkishly = answer.
Best PB comment of all time