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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on the Copenhagen shootings and the day’s first poll s

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  • Translation: you're angry that the public aren't willing to vote Conservative in overwhelming numbers, and think it's their problem. Not the fault of the Conservatives.

    Good luck with that.

    No, I'm not angry with voters at all, although I'm sorry for their sakes that they may be heading for a big mistake.

    I am disappointed with ex-Conservatives who should know better, but then for a large chunk of the last twenty-five years the Conservatives have been self-harming, so it's nothing new. It does seem that we may be returning to the bad old pre-2007 days in that respect.
  • If you compare today's Ashcroft with the one that was coincident with the January ICM, we find the following change in shares:
    Con +1
    Lab +3
    UKIP +1
    Lib nc
    Grn -3
    So at least you can say that they both agree that the two-party share of Con & Lab has increased.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    There are so many caveats with the labour share in any poll for me

    How many of these guys have even registered to vote....How many are Ant and Dec labour (ie supporters but Ed Miliband...no thanks)....How much is the score propped up by fantasy land assumptions on what will happen in Scotland etc. How many are ashamed kippers...

    Hey ho.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Latest Ashcroft poll

    Con 30 (-4) Lab 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc) UKIP 16 (+2) Greens 8 (+2)

    Lefties cheering on The Gord Lord and criticizing ICM will be funny! :D

    #megapollingmonday
    And it will make for a fun ELBOW....
    We shall see!
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    The last month before the election should be interesting. Not for the campaign because I, and I suspect many more, just screen it out, but because of the possibility of grey or even black swans.

    Ed will make a few more promises of goodies, Tories will shriek with dismay at the stupidity of it. Ed will claim 36 hours to save the NHS and the voters will yawn. Greens may pick up a couple of points, but it's the Kipper vote that could be the key.

    I expected a gradual decline but that depends on a couple of factors. Europe has to behave itself. No doubt, there will be another Jihadist atrocity but that's almost factored in already. So it's the greater exposure and the possibility of a Grexit or something similar that may change things.

    Hmm .. that's just a long-winded way to say that I'd prefer to see a 'highlights' edition only or take a long holiday somewhere else.
  • MikeK said:

    antifrank said:
    Well, I can't see him taking too many votes off the Lefties there, Antifrank - or indeed off anybody else.

    Labour hold.
    Still nice to see that the Hampstead Lefties wont have it all there own way. My granddaughter says she might vote Labour, but then she's coming off a Lib/Dem binge.
    It's one of London's more interesting seats, Mike.

    I might have been more interested in it for betting purposes had Labour picked a strange candidate to replace the blessed Glenda, but they haven't. They also have a large LD vote to plunder, so this time it should be a fairly comfortable hold.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326

    Cyclefree said:

    On the Today programme this morning there was an interview with a prominent Danish Jew and he was saying that they had got used to going out without anything which might identify them as Jewish i.e. no Star of David or kippah. And it was the phrase "they had got used to this" which really got to me.

    Yes, that is horrendous. Quite how Denmark, of all countries, got to that state is hard to comprehend.
    It is the same in France. And if we get attacks here I expect we will get the same reaction here too.

    It happened because (a) we let in people who were either taught that Jews were like apes and pigs, as part of their religion, or came from countries where, to put it mildly, dislike of Jews was widespread; and (b) this was not challenged over here. Indeed, some people - dishonourably - seemed to blame Jews for the predicament they were in. So anti-Semitism - a virus which has always been latent in Europe (and which we thought had largely vanished in the post-war decades) has been reintroduced and reinvigorated.

  • Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On the Today programme this morning there was an interview with a prominent Danish Jew and he was saying that they had got used to going out without anything which might identify them as Jewish i.e. no Star of David or kippah. And it was the phrase "they had got used to this" which really got to me.

    Yes, that is horrendous. Quite how Denmark, of all countries, got to that state is hard to comprehend.
    It is the same in France. And if we get attacks here I expect we will get the same reaction here too.

    It happened because (a) we let in people who were either taught that Jews were like apes and pigs, as part of their religion, or came from countries where, to put it mildly, dislike of Jews was widespread; and (b) this was not challenged over here. Indeed, some people - dishonourably - seemed to blame Jews for the predicament they were in. So anti-Semitism - a virus which has always been latent in Europe (and which we thought had largely vanished in the post-war decades) has been reintroduced and reinvigorated.

    France is a bit different, Cyclefree.

    There really are parts that would have preferred the Nazis to have won WW2.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Mr. Zims, Defence was one of the few departments not splurged on by Labour during their misrule. It's been stretched too thin for too long, and we must retain sufficient resources to protect or, if necessary, reclaim British territory overseas.

    We should slash Aid, not Defence.

    I agree, so why not ditch Trident and spend the money on conventional forces?

    Because the money will simply be spent elsewhere.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:

    Never mind lads, Ed has been on the telly again today. That should move his numbers...

    @JoeWatts_: Cash-in-hand row overshadows Ed Miliband's apprenticeships announcement... http://t.co/qigdo9gY7h by @JoeMurphyLondon


    The numbers may move in a way not necessarily to Ed's advantage
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:

    Never mind lads, Ed has been on the telly again today. That should move his numbers...

    @JoeWatts_: Cash-in-hand row overshadows Ed Miliband's apprenticeships announcement... http://t.co/qigdo9gY7h by @JoeMurphyLondon

    Of course today was the day Labour said we need to be more like France ....... (more taxation, more unemployment and less growth)

    Wonder how that will go down.

    Is Baldrick coming up with their economic plan?
  • Amazing that the NHS is people's number one policy concern. Strange also that the people haven't quite come round to the idea that the basic model doesn't work and that spaying yet more money at it will not work.

    The number one problem facing Britain, though most seem unaware of it, is the looming terrorist war on the streets.

    There's a great analysis about how a full on terrorist war is likely on the streets of Britain with not only Islamists but also English nationalists murdering away.

    The government has closed down free speech and made protesting Islamism illegal.
    What remains to do for somebody who's not prepared to see their country disappear
    without a fight?

    It's called "Warmonger" at:

    http://john-moloney.blogspot.com/2015/02/warmonger.html
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Latest Ashcroft poll

    Con 30 (-4) Lab 31 (nc) LD 9 (nc) UKIP 16 (+2) Greens 8 (+2)

    But it does reinforce the point you made earlier - the movement it between Tories and others.
This discussion has been closed.