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A 10/1 and a 6/1 tip to start your new year – politicalbetting.com

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  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,214
    I just saw that an old friend of mine from my nights in Soho died in November

    Weston Gavin used to show up at the Alleycat on Denmark Street every fortnight to sing at my mate Dom’s jam night

    I got to know him well, and found out that he was the actor who played the alleyway villain who first shot Superman in a movie

    He sang and strummed well too. Please wish Weston well X
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 12,398

    This:


    Ruth Deyermond ‪@ruthdeyermond.bsky.social‬

    It's New Year, so time to look back and forward. These are 10 things I think we need to recognise in 2026.


    ‪Ruth Deyermond‬ @ruthdeyermond.bsky.social‬

    1. Russia isn’t winning in Ukraine.


    If your military capacity relies on DPRK and Iran, and you've turned yourself into a dependent of China, you’re not a great power.

    https://bsky.app/profile/ruthdeyermond.bsky.social/post/3mbetvcokp22t

    That’s a thoughtful thread thanks
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,199
    An American Dr Who fan speaks on the kerfuffle regarding the Disney/BBC debacle (TL:DR: it's not the woke nor the viewing figures, it's Disney resiling from streaming generally). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGGbk6WDdJQ
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,509

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/comment-paul-ovenden-whitehall-alaa-abd-el-fattah-keir-starmer-labour-government-l6hg0sck3

    Keir Starmer's former No 10 Director of Strategy has hit out at the "Stakeholder State"

    He says Civil Servants mentioned the case of Alaa Abd el-Fattah with "such regularity" that it became a "running joke" inside No 10 about Whitehall's "sheer weirdness"

    "We are only seeing a tiny part of it. Like an iceberg, the vast mass remains hidden from view, buttressed in silence"

    What next for Stamerville?

    “Liz Truss was right”????!!!???
    Labour was once the political wing of the British people. Starmer's government is the political wing of the Tony Blair Institute. Stealth privatisation of the NHS. Comms surveillance. ID cards.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,509
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    JD Vance is not correct. His policy on Ukraine, Russia and Europe generally serves no purpose except he takes pleasure in humiliating Europeans. At least Trump is transactional. He and his family expect to make a lot of money out of Russia.

    I wouldn't say the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a win for China. It wasn't what they wanted but they have so far avoided being dragged into it.
    Yes, Vance has a real hillbilly sized chip on his shoulder when dealing with Europeans. He is jealous of a class above him, which may be why he got on so well with Lammy. Vance doesn't see Lammy as part of that European elite, and I think Lammy has a similar chip on his shoulder.

    Vance is a chameleon in human form, a sort of Talented Mr Ripley. I think he is even more susceptible to flattery than Trump. Getting him onside is probably mostly a matter of getting him some red carpet type treatment next time he comes here.
    Damn stupid to have removed David Lammy from the Foreign Office where he'd struck up useful relationships (not just with Washington; remember Lammy also got Starmer front and centre at the D-Day celebrations after Rishi unaccountably bailed) and replaced him with that serial non-entity Yvette Cooper. I do wonder if Lammy had been caught up in a credit war with Lord Mandelson, our US Ambassador, and lost. A crying shame if so because, of course, Mandelson was next out of the door.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,509
    Andy_JS said:

    "The battle to stop clever people betting
    The tools bookmakers use to block data-savvy gamblers, and how to get round them" (£)

    https://www.economist.com/christmas-specials/2025/12/18/the-battle-to-stop-clever-people-betting

    I'm almost tempted by the £10 a month for the first year subscription with the New York Times thrown in but I'm paying too many subs as it is.

    https://archive.is/kyqxs

    Mainly written from an American perspective although there is some mention of Britain and Ireland.

    In my experience British bookies are too trigger happy. I can't bet with at least three of them, and my stakes would not trouble the judges. Ordinary punters can also get caught in the cross-fire – those sharks had us over with that clever bet so to be on the safe side, we'll just bar everyone who made the same bet even though most of them just followed the market or a prominent tipster.



  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,836
    edited 4:18AM
    Seems as though I wasn't the only one on the sauce over the new year.

    Amid rising concerns about the health of the nation’s democracy, Chief Justice John Roberts expressed faith that the nation’s founding charters and key principles are proving resilient.
    https://x.com/washingtonpost/status/2006523294590062800
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,509
    viewcode said:

    An American Dr Who fan speaks on the kerfuffle regarding the Disney/BBC debacle (TL:DR: it's not the woke nor the viewing figures, it's Disney resiling from streaming generally). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGGbk6WDdJQ

    Yes, TRiE has also pointed to streamers burning a lot of money in the chase for content and viewers (and reordering Hollywood as a side effect). There has also been some movement by streamers to be more like traditional linear television, dropping series one episode a week rather than all at once. (And sometimes the broadcasters have gone the other way and release the lot at once; iirc the most popular streaming platform in this country is BBC iplayer.)

    Netflix is said to regard its biggest rival as YouTube, although that platform seems intent on shooting itself in the foot lately with its algorithms promoting TikTok-like shorts and podcasts over the longer original-content videos that made its name.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,509
    Dominic Cummings: Why the Tories are 'completely dead' (language not woke!)
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VDjyGnrF_P0

    90 seconds of Dominic Cummings on focus groups and Conservatives' death through irrelevance, for Team Kemi, as Oscar Wilde almost said, there is only one thing in politics worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about.

    Bad news for Jenrick too if no-one is watching an angry man walk and point.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,509
    Nigelb said:

    Seems as though I wasn't the only one on the sauce over the new year.

    Amid rising concerns about the health of the nation’s democracy, Chief Justice John Roberts expressed faith that the nation’s founding charters and key principles are proving resilient.
    https://x.com/washingtonpost/status/2006523294590062800

    I'm hoping the one good thing to come from all this is the end of those tiresome Hollywood scenes where the ordinary joe (or jane) takes down a pompous lawyer or police chief by invoking their sacred constitution. Trump and the Project 2025 team has shown its protections aren't worth the vellum they are inscribed on.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,972
    New York’s communist experiment: Day 1

    Mamdani: “We will replace the frigidity of rugged individualism with the warmth of collectivism”

    https://x.com/acyn/status/2006817240851820580

    Inauguration party: supporters at huge street event disappointed to find no food or toilets.

    https://x.com/nypost/status/2006835628407755057
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,808

    Dominic Cummings: Why the Tories are 'completely dead' (language not woke!)
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VDjyGnrF_P0

    90 seconds of Dominic Cummings on focus groups and Conservatives' death through irrelevance, for Team Kemi, as Oscar Wilde almost said, there is only one thing in politics worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about.

    Bad news for Jenrick too if no-one is watching an angry man walk and point.

    He should know about poisonous irrelevancies and being completely finished.

    He seems to be much more active recently. I wonder if something’s going on that means he needs distraction therapy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,836
    Jan 2nd, and already a candidate for wildest linguistic story of the year.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1mx290re3do
    ..It was in the summer of 2004 that Leeds United's Alan Smith did the unthinkable and moved across the Pennines to the club's bitter rivals, Manchester United - little knowing it would spark a linguistic phenomenon thousands of miles away in South Korea which still lives on today.
    In the three years Smith spent at Old Trafford following his £7m switch, his performances never hit the heights of those at his previous club, where the homegrown striker had been a local hero.
    But in South Korea, Smith's loss of form gave rise to an initially obscure phrase which effectively means one's prime or the peak of one's life.
    "Leeds days" is now an everyday term among the nation's 52 million speakers, even though it seems a large chunk of the population there have never even heard of the city, less the player.
    "Most people there don't know the etymology of it, so I find myself explaining it," says Josh Wileman, who was Leeds United's South Korean supporter group contact..



  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,785
    Sandpit said:

    New York’s communist experiment: Day 1

    Mamdani: “We will replace the frigidity of rugged individualism with the warmth of collectivism”

    https://x.com/acyn/status/2006817240851820580

    Inauguration party: supporters at huge street event disappointed to find no food or toilets.

    https://x.com/nypost/status/2006835628407755057

    I pity New Yorkers: they were left with the choice of a deluded lune or a crook.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,836
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    New York’s communist experiment: Day 1

    Mamdani: “We will replace the frigidity of rugged individualism with the warmth of collectivism”

    https://x.com/acyn/status/2006817240851820580

    Inauguration party: supporters at huge street event disappointed to find no food or toilets.

    https://x.com/nypost/status/2006835628407755057

    I pity New Yorkers: they were left with the choice of a deluded lune or a crook.
    Lune ?

    Un choix clair de la lune.

    Or did you mean loon ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,785
    ydoethur said:

    Interesting article on the internal state of Russia:

    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/russias-descent-tyranny

    Required reading
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,785
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    New York’s communist experiment: Day 1

    Mamdani: “We will replace the frigidity of rugged individualism with the warmth of collectivism”

    https://x.com/acyn/status/2006817240851820580

    Inauguration party: supporters at huge street event disappointed to find no food or toilets.

    https://x.com/nypost/status/2006835628407755057

    I pity New Yorkers: they were left with the choice of a deluded lune or a crook.
    Lune ?

    Un choix clair de la lune.

    Or did you mean loon ?
    He's no Canadian.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,972
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    New York’s communist experiment: Day 1

    Mamdani: “We will replace the frigidity of rugged individualism with the warmth of collectivism”

    https://x.com/acyn/status/2006817240851820580

    Inauguration party: supporters at huge street event disappointed to find no food or toilets.

    https://x.com/nypost/status/2006835628407755057

    I pity New Yorkers: they were left with the choice of a deluded lune or a crook.
    …or a Republican, but NYers were incapable of doing that even when presented with a commie and a crook standing against him.

    Good news for Florida and Texas, as is California’s mooted “Billionaire Tax”
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,785
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    New York’s communist experiment: Day 1

    Mamdani: “We will replace the frigidity of rugged individualism with the warmth of collectivism”

    https://x.com/acyn/status/2006817240851820580

    Inauguration party: supporters at huge street event disappointed to find no food or toilets.

    https://x.com/nypost/status/2006835628407755057

    I pity New Yorkers: they were left with the choice of a deluded lune or a crook.
    …or a Republican, but NYers were incapable of doing that even when presented with a commie and a crook standing against him.

    Good news for Florida and Texas, as is California’s mooted “Billionaire Tax”
    If Trump hadn't dumped the Republican candidate, he might have stood a better chance: but he told Republicans to vote for Cuomo.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,509
    ydoethur said:

    Dominic Cummings: Why the Tories are 'completely dead' (language not woke!)
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VDjyGnrF_P0

    90 seconds of Dominic Cummings on focus groups and Conservatives' death through irrelevance, for Team Kemi, as Oscar Wilde almost said, there is only one thing in politics worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about.

    Bad news for Jenrick too if no-one is watching an angry man walk and point.

    He should know about poisonous irrelevancies and being completely finished.

    He seems to be much more active recently. I wonder if something’s going on that means he needs distraction therapy.
    Tempus fugit. Cummings suddenly looks old and frail. It may be a farewell tour, or just a reflection that so many more podcasts have launched recently and are fishing in the same pool for guests.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,785

    ydoethur said:

    Dominic Cummings: Why the Tories are 'completely dead' (language not woke!)
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VDjyGnrF_P0

    90 seconds of Dominic Cummings on focus groups and Conservatives' death through irrelevance, for Team Kemi, as Oscar Wilde almost said, there is only one thing in politics worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about.

    Bad news for Jenrick too if no-one is watching an angry man walk and point.

    He should know about poisonous irrelevancies and being completely finished.

    He seems to be much more active recently. I wonder if something’s going on that means he needs distraction therapy.
    Tempus fugit. Cummings suddenly looks old and frail. It may be a farewell tour, or just a reflection that so many more podcasts have launched recently and are fishing in the same pool for guests.
    I'm currently on a flight from LA to London, and the only experience I've ever had of Dominic Cummings in real life is of him being rude to cabin staff on a flight in the opposite direction.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,509
    Getting a couple of Cloudflare errors (on their part, not PB's) in the past hour or so.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,836
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Interesting article on the internal state of Russia:

    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/russias-descent-tyranny

    Required reading
    That's a great article.

    And this is the regime that the US administration believe should have Europe as its "zone of influence".
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,509
    London fireworks Star of David-gate.

    FPT:-
    Taz said:

    The Star of David removed from the Israeli flag.last night.

    https://x.com/mishtal/status/2006619009609797911?s=61

    Oops !!


    The [Israeli] flag was included in the London Eye New Year’s display. The Star of David wasn’t removed. The flags were small, animated and part of a sequence forming the Union Flag. Visibility issues affected several blue & white flags, not Israel alone. No evidence this was antisemitic
    https://x.com/JewishLondon/status/2006712332173586559 (includes video clip showing flag with blurry Star of David)
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,548
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    New York’s communist experiment: Day 1

    Mamdani: “We will replace the frigidity of rugged individualism with the warmth of collectivism”

    https://x.com/acyn/status/2006817240851820580

    Inauguration party: supporters at huge street event disappointed to find no food or toilets.

    https://x.com/nypost/status/2006835628407755057

    I pity New Yorkers: they were left with the choice of a deluded lune or a crook.
    …or a Republican, but NYers were incapable of doing that even when presented with a commie and a crook standing against him.

    Good news for Florida and Texas, as is California’s mooted “Billionaire Tax”
    They need the money for the reparations for slavery currently passed into law, without any money to fund it 😂

    https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/2006779007275327878?s=61
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,316
    Dopermean said:

    Betfair 2026 local election winner market looks interesting.
    To be settled on number of elected mayors / head of local govt. 6 London mayors, number of London councils and a large number of councils where only 1/3 are up for election...
    Not much money in the market but Reform very short odds.
    The mayor part is clear, head of local govt presumably means overall party control?
    Can't see Reform winning control of any councils with only 1/3 of councillors up for election. What happens with NOC councils?

    They are settling on "Head of local government (Mayor or Governor)".

    For the London Boroughs isn't the head the council leader rather than the mayor whose role is ceremonial? Both positions exist.

    Disputes likely imo.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,698
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    New York’s communist experiment: Day 1

    Mamdani: “We will replace the frigidity of rugged individualism with the warmth of collectivism”

    https://x.com/acyn/status/2006817240851820580

    Inauguration party: supporters at huge street event disappointed to find no food or toilets.

    https://x.com/nypost/status/2006835628407755057

    I pity New Yorkers: they were left with the choice of a deluded lune or a crook.
    Whereas the rest of the US has both?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,434

    NEW THREAD

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,972
    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    New York’s communist experiment: Day 1

    Mamdani: “We will replace the frigidity of rugged individualism with the warmth of collectivism”

    https://x.com/acyn/status/2006817240851820580

    Inauguration party: supporters at huge street event disappointed to find no food or toilets.

    https://x.com/nypost/status/2006835628407755057

    I pity New Yorkers: they were left with the choice of a deluded lune or a crook.
    …or a Republican, but NYers were incapable of doing that even when presented with a commie and a crook standing against him.

    Good news for Florida and Texas, as is California’s mooted “Billionaire Tax”
    They need the money for the reparations for slavery currently passed into law, without any money to fund it 😂

    https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/2006779007275327878?s=61
    So a State that never practiced slavery, is about to take money from people who never owned slaves, to give to the descendants of those that weren’t slaves.

    Oh, and it’s almost certainly unconstitutional anyway, being quite blatantly racist. Unless of course black means anyone who identifies as black?
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,548
    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    New York’s communist experiment: Day 1

    Mamdani: “We will replace the frigidity of rugged individualism with the warmth of collectivism”

    https://x.com/acyn/status/2006817240851820580

    Inauguration party: supporters at huge street event disappointed to find no food or toilets.

    https://x.com/nypost/status/2006835628407755057

    I pity New Yorkers: they were left with the choice of a deluded lune or a crook.
    …or a Republican, but NYers were incapable of doing that even when presented with a commie and a crook standing against him.

    Good news for Florida and Texas, as is California’s mooted “Billionaire Tax”
    They need the money for the reparations for slavery currently passed into law, without any money to fund it 😂

    https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/2006779007275327878?s=61
    So a State that never practiced slavery, is about to take money from people who never owned slaves, to give to the descendants of those that weren’t slaves.

    Oh, and it’s almost certainly unconstitutional anyway, being quite blatantly racist. Unless of course black means anyone who identifies as black?
    It’s nuts but it gives them a big problem now as they have promised this people will expect it and expect 5 million each even though it says they ‘could’ get it.

    It’s coming here too. The politics are moving in that direction within Labour.

    I wonder what the Greens position will be on it,
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,972
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    New York’s communist experiment: Day 1

    Mamdani: “We will replace the frigidity of rugged individualism with the warmth of collectivism”

    https://x.com/acyn/status/2006817240851820580

    Inauguration party: supporters at huge street event disappointed to find no food or toilets.

    https://x.com/nypost/status/2006835628407755057

    I pity New Yorkers: they were left with the choice of a deluded lune or a crook.
    …or a Republican, but NYers were incapable of doing that even when presented with a commie and a crook standing against him.

    Good news for Florida and Texas, as is California’s mooted “Billionaire Tax”
    If Trump hadn't dumped the Republican candidate, he might have stood a better chance: but he told Republicans to vote for Cuomo.
    Yes, he was rightly a little pissed off that the president endorsed the independent over the Republican.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,589
    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    New York’s communist experiment: Day 1

    Mamdani: “We will replace the frigidity of rugged individualism with the warmth of collectivism”

    https://x.com/acyn/status/2006817240851820580

    Inauguration party: supporters at huge street event disappointed to find no food or toilets.

    https://x.com/nypost/status/2006835628407755057

    I pity New Yorkers: they were left with the choice of a deluded lune or a crook.
    …or a Republican, but NYers were incapable of doing that even when presented with a commie and a crook standing against him.

    Good news for Florida and Texas, as is California’s mooted “Billionaire Tax”
    They need the money for the reparations for slavery currently passed into law, without any money to fund it 😂

    https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/2006779007275327878?s=61
    So a State that never practiced slavery, is about to take money from people who never owned slaves, to give to the descendants of those that weren’t slaves.

    Oh, and it’s almost certainly unconstitutional anyway, being quite blatantly racist. Unless of course black means anyone who identifies as black?
    It’s nuts but it gives them a big problem now as they have promised this people will expect it and expect 5 million each even though it says they ‘could’ get it.

    It’s coming here too. The politics are moving in that direction within Labour.

    I wonder what the Greens position will be on it,
    One of my New Year Resolutions is to complete my header entitled:

    "Imperial Reparations, Intersectional Feminism and White Privilege"

    I just need to work in a few more of @MaxPB thoughts on lesbian college professors.
  • TresTres Posts: 3,357
    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    New York’s communist experiment: Day 1

    Mamdani: “We will replace the frigidity of rugged individualism with the warmth of collectivism”

    https://x.com/acyn/status/2006817240851820580

    Inauguration party: supporters at huge street event disappointed to find no food or toilets.

    https://x.com/nypost/status/2006835628407755057

    I pity New Yorkers: they were left with the choice of a deluded lune or a crook.
    …or a Republican, but NYers were incapable of doing that even when presented with a commie and a crook standing against him.

    Good news for Florida and Texas, as is California’s mooted “Billionaire Tax”
    They need the money for the reparations for slavery currently passed into law, without any money to fund it 😂

    https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/2006779007275327878?s=61
    So a State that never practiced slavery, is about to take money from people who never owned slaves, to give to the descendants of those that weren’t slaves.

    Oh, and it’s almost certainly unconstitutional anyway, being quite blatantly racist. Unless of course black means anyone who identifies as black?
    New York Post? - yep I'm convinced.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,631
    edited 11:14AM
    Edit - ops, didn't intend to necro - should have refreshed before hitting post!

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Children ‘to lose right to Send support’ except in severe cases
    Schools to take over from parents to deal with the authorities directly for pupils with only ‘moderate’ needs in proposed government reforms to cut soaring bills

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/government-send-reforms-children-mental-health-adhd-sqw68bczx (£££)

    Proposals are at the considered by ministers stage so don't hold your breath.

    The current levels are simply unaffordable and not always needed, but there would be massive outcry - this will not happen.
    A better question might be to ask why they are unaffordable. Is it, perhaps, because our school system is not well set up to cope with those who do not fit into tidy little boxes?

    Or because we start schooling very early - earlier than comparably run systems in Scandinavia - which means that we are forcing children to learn before they are fully ready?

    Or the dogmatic insistence on date of birth for start of school?

    Or the size of classes?

    Or the emphasis on academic subjects (some of which are very badly planned out in terms of content and assessment) in the curriculum?

    But nobody seems to be asking those questions. Largely I think because it raises too many awkward revelations about decades of mismanagement (not all of it well-intentioned) by the centre.
    All good questions to address wider issues, though well intentioned but too loose 'requirements' which incentivises classification is a matter which if addresses could stem the financial bleeding to give breathing room to look at them.

    But definitely not happening. Too many legitimate sob stories and would turbo charge all opposition.
    I've worked within the SEND system.

    Believe me, it is bloody difficult to get any support for a child. Even with wealthy parents who have high class barristers on tap. Councils just refuse.

    There is a reason almost 98% of refusals are overturned on appeal. However, even then most councils won't implement the decision. In Staffordshire, for example, they refuse to provide 1:1 support even where they are ordered to. The only case I know of where that was reversed was where the child's father, who happened to be an equalities lead for a national organisation, took them to court and won.

    We should not be asking about how to cut SEND costs. We should be asking instead how they are soaring so rapidly *even though councils are not actually doing what they should be* and therefore we *already* are failing to provide anything like adequate support.

    Which means we come back to the system.
    Partly it's the problem of having a statutory demand-led system coupled to an extremely finite pot of money.

    Partly it's that the mental health of the nation does seem to be getting worse.
    I think it's also partly that the standard system isn't working for standard kids, and so the parents of normal kids are looking for ways to help their children. Pushing hard for SEND assistance is one of the avenues available.
    20 years of experience tells me very firmly that you think wrong. You can barely get support for children whose dyslexia makes it nearly impossible for them to read and write without a legal dogfight, never mind anything else.

    I remember working with one individual with severe palsy. He couldn't get any funding at all even though he could barely walk to a classroom and when he got there he worked so slowly he was always behind. In desperation his parents scraped together just enough money for private tutors to get him through A-levels. And we did, but it was damned hard. The county still didn't want to bloody know.
    Honestly though, that’s a real achievement. 30 years ago he would have been on the scrap heap. Today you got him through A levels
    It's a great achievement, but I'm not so sure about your conclusions about the past. When I was a kid (mid 90s) my parents were friends with a guy with a similar physical condition, but very bright, was probably in his late 30s, (so educated in the early 80s). I've no idea what education he had, but he'd ended up as a reasonably senior design engineer at JCB.
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