Skip to content

A 10/1 and a 6/1 tip to start your new year – politicalbetting.com

124

Comments

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,611
    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    MattW said:

    BobbyJ is sounding a little bit over-optimistic in his assessment of his position:

    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/2006652583147090173

    Someone who was personally involved in screwing up on all the measures he mentions in the video when previously in government, wants us to believe he has all the answers.
    There was a Home Office Minister called Jobert Renrick who put all the asylum seekers into 5* hotels. Different chap I believe.
    That's a rubbish limerick. Let me try to improve;

    There was a Home Office Minister called Jenrick
    He was a bit of a jab in the arm
    Nonetheless he went too far
    In the future he'll be mainly at the bar
    That jumped up complete Richard.
    Oh, dear, surely we can improve on that.

    There was once a young minister called Jenrick
    Whose policies were - who would have kenned it?
    Exactly the same
    As the ones he defamed:
    And his political career was thus ended.
    There once was a fellow named Jenrick,
    Whose logic was truly eccentric.
    The views he’d decried
    He adopted with pride,
    Till his polling turned quite atmospheric.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,611

    viewcode said:

    tlg86 said:

    Aren't these tips contradictory? There is a good chance neither wins and it's almost certain that at least one doesn't win.

    For the Greens to lead in a poll, I reckon they need to get to at least 22% to have any chance (their best so far is 19%) and even that might only get them a tie. The equation is basically Reform plus Conservative divided by two. That's been as low as 21% in one YouGov back in July, but generally it doesn't go below 22%. And, of course, it needs the split to be 50:50.

    I think I'd want more like 33/1 to be tempted.


    What software did you use to produce that graph please?
    Also how is it calculated?

    Assuming that Con averages between 15-20 (from memory) and Ref is 20-30, shouldn’t Con+ Ref halved be in the 25-30 range rather than below 25?
    He means (Con plus Ref) halved not Con plus Ref halved.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,790
    I don't know what to make of this.

    https://youtu.be/Q7h_aDZBUmA?si=MYg6JJeWT1UIAKC0

    Trigger warning - includes Jacob Rees-Mogg.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,774
    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    MattW said:

    BobbyJ is sounding a little bit over-optimistic in his assessment of his position:

    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/2006652583147090173

    Someone who was personally involved in screwing up on all the measures he mentions in the video when previously in government, wants us to believe he has all the answers.
    There was a Home Office Minister called Jobert Renrick who put all the asylum seekers into 5* hotels. Different chap I believe.
    I thought all the jacuzzis were closed which makes them “not 5* hotels”?
    Not according to GB News and the Daily Mail. I believe those hotels without a spa had one fitted by the Labour Government when they arrived in office, at the same time they handed out the Motability Maseratis.
    Motability Maseratis - poppycock.

    Motability Bugattis - obviously.

    What kind of a CommieSymp are you?

    I seem to recall a Frank & Earnest debate with several hundred SeanTs - trying to get him to admit that the hotels were all budget…

    Personally, I think the hotel thing is another example of how Process pushes society into poor solutions. Every other idea for storing migrants was tried. Each was defeated by legal process. The hotels were used because the legal advice was that no Process was required to use them - simply block book for x years.

    We see similar in things such as mass battery storage. It may not be the best, cheapest etc. but there is next to nothing that can stop you putting a couple of ISO containers on your land.
    Clearly those complaining about luxury hotels accommodating asylum seekers have never stayed at the Macclesfield Travelodge.

    Slightly paraphrasing your comment, could it be that hotels are actually the optimal short term accommodation for asylum seekers, given they need to go somewhere? Hotels are highly space efficient bed factories for transient populations. Importantly for a controversial policy, they already exist so impacts on other people are minimised. I suspect if contracts are managed properly that they are also cost effective.
    Why the hell is anyone fretting about hotels.

    A govt scheme is giving money to councils to build social housing for Asylum seekers.

    At least five have volunteered (Brighton, of course, being one): with up to 200 interested.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/councils-turn-derelict-properties-into-asylum-seeker-housing-4124314?srsltid=AfmBOorQQhhlRkh3-M1RUH5me1bqdvKP_mMa6D7BjwBySs-HpUr1RSRT

    https://theisleofthanetnews.com/2025/12/31/thanet-put-forward-for-government-pilot-scheme-to-provide-council-housing-for-people-seeking-asylum/

    If locals waiting for homes, often for years, are upset by this just tell them they’re racist. Usually does the trick and shuts them up 👍
    To my point #2. Hotels already exist for transient populations so it minimises impacts on locals.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 12,397

    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai is the first Russian oil refinery to be hit by Ukrainian drones in 2026. Previously targeted in November and September of 2025, it has a capacity of 6.5 million tons and is the... 26th largest refinery in Russia with about 2% of total Russian capacity.

    Also hit overnight was an oil terminal in Tartarstan that processes and stores crude oil from northern Russia oilfields. If the Ukrainians can damage that it might force some of the oil wells to shut down.

    And once shut down, oil wells can take years to restart so Russia will not want to allow that.
    Russia may not want =/= Russia can enforce.

    This winter is going to be brutal for all concerned in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Ukrainians have endured 4 winters of it. Up to now, Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg have endured 0. The shock for metropolitan Russians will be severe.
    Parts of Moscow and St.P spent last night without power, and at least four O&G facilities put on a free fireworks show.

    My prediction for ‘26 is that ordinary metropolitan Russians finally start to feel that their country is at war.
    My prediction for 2026 is that we'll be inundated with anniversaries: 10 years since Brexit; 100 years since the Great Depression; and that's just the big ones. 50 years since the long, hot summer of 76; 60 years since England won the World Cup (since renamed the Men's World Cup; no doubt soon to be renamed the Trump World Cup).
    250 years of the US.
    1783?
    Yes, strictly speaking that's when the USA became a legal entity, not 1776.
    I'm not sure the Founding Fathers would agree with you. Nevertheless 1776 is the fixed point date that everyone celebrates. The clue's in the July 4 national holiday.
    The 1783 Treaty of Paris was signed on September 3rd.

    I'm not sure a "British Recognition of Your Independence Day" is going to catch on, but a party on September 3rd might ease the pains of the return to school, so we could give it a go?
    Sounds like an excuse for two parties TBH
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,622
    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    MattW said:

    BobbyJ is sounding a little bit over-optimistic in his assessment of his position:

    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/2006652583147090173

    Someone who was personally involved in screwing up on all the measures he mentions in the video when previously in government, wants us to believe he has all the answers.
    There was a Home Office Minister called Jobert Renrick who put all the asylum seekers into 5* hotels. Different chap I believe.
    I thought all the jacuzzis were closed which makes them “not 5* hotels”?
    Not according to GB News and the Daily Mail. I believe those hotels without a spa had one fitted by the Labour Government when they arrived in office, at the same time they handed out the Motability Maseratis.
    Motability Maseratis - poppycock.

    Motability Bugattis - obviously.

    What kind of a CommieSymp are you?

    I seem to recall a Frank & Earnest debate with several hundred SeanTs - trying to get him to admit that the hotels were all budget…

    Personally, I think the hotel thing is another example of how Process pushes society into poor solutions. Every other idea for storing migrants was tried. Each was defeated by legal process. The hotels were used because the legal advice was that no Process was required to use them - simply block book for x years.

    We see similar in things such as mass battery storage. It may not be the best, cheapest etc. but there is next to nothing that can stop you putting a couple of ISO containers on your land.
    Clearly those complaining about luxury hotels accommodating asylum seekers have never stayed at the Macclesfield Travelodge.

    Slightly paraphrasing your comment, could it be that hotels are actually the optimal short term accommodation for asylum seekers, given they need to go somewhere? Hotels are highly space efficient bed factories for transient populations. Importantly for a controversial policy, they already exist so impacts on other people are minimised. I suspect if contracts are managed properly that they are also cost effective.
    Why the hell is anyone fretting about hotels.

    A govt scheme is giving money to councils to build social housing for Asylum seekers.

    At least five have volunteered (Brighton, of course, being one): with up to 200 interested.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/councils-turn-derelict-properties-into-asylum-seeker-housing-4124314?srsltid=AfmBOorQQhhlRkh3-M1RUH5me1bqdvKP_mMa6D7BjwBySs-HpUr1RSRT

    https://theisleofthanetnews.com/2025/12/31/thanet-put-forward-for-government-pilot-scheme-to-provide-council-housing-for-people-seeking-asylum/

    If locals waiting for homes, often for years, are upset by this just tell them they’re racist. Usually does the trick and shuts them up 👍
    To my point #2. Hotels already exist for transient populations so it minimises impacts on locals.
    Depends on the hotel. Some of them have their facilities used by more than just the guests.

    For some of them, yes. I recall one that got @SeanT fuming, was a newish business hotel in a business park, just off the local roundabout on/off the motorway.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,523
    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    MattW said:

    BobbyJ is sounding a little bit over-optimistic in his assessment of his position:

    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/2006652583147090173

    Someone who was personally involved in screwing up on all the measures he mentions in the video when previously in government, wants us to believe he has all the answers.
    There was a Home Office Minister called Jobert Renrick who put all the asylum seekers into 5* hotels. Different chap I believe.
    I thought all the jacuzzis were closed which makes them “not 5* hotels”?
    Not according to GB News and the Daily Mail. I believe those hotels without a spa had one fitted by the Labour Government when they arrived in office, at the same time they handed out the Motability Maseratis.
    Motability Maseratis - poppycock.

    Motability Bugattis - obviously.

    What kind of a CommieSymp are you?

    I seem to recall a Frank & Earnest debate with several hundred SeanTs - trying to get him to admit that the hotels were all budget…

    Personally, I think the hotel thing is another example of how Process pushes society into poor solutions. Every other idea for storing migrants was tried. Each was defeated by legal process. The hotels were used because the legal advice was that no Process was required to use them - simply block book for x years.

    We see similar in things such as mass battery storage. It may not be the best, cheapest etc. but there is next to nothing that can stop you putting a couple of ISO containers on your land.
    Clearly those complaining about luxury hotels accommodating asylum seekers have never stayed at the Macclesfield Travelodge.

    Slightly paraphrasing your comment, could it be that hotels are actually the optimal short term accommodation for asylum seekers, given they need to go somewhere? Hotels are highly space efficient bed factories for transient populations. Importantly for a controversial policy, they already exist so impacts on other people are minimised. I suspect if contracts are managed properly that they are also cost effective.
    Why the hell is anyone fretting about hotels.

    A govt scheme is giving money to councils to build social housing for Asylum seekers.

    At least five have volunteered (Brighton, of course, being one): with up to 200 interested.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/councils-turn-derelict-properties-into-asylum-seeker-housing-4124314?srsltid=AfmBOorQQhhlRkh3-M1RUH5me1bqdvKP_mMa6D7BjwBySs-HpUr1RSRT

    https://theisleofthanetnews.com/2025/12/31/thanet-put-forward-for-government-pilot-scheme-to-provide-council-housing-for-people-seeking-asylum/

    If locals waiting for homes, often for years, are upset by this just tell them they’re racist. Usually does the trick and shuts them up 👍
    To my point #2. Hotels already exist for transient populations so it minimises impacts on locals.
    Apart from those who,work in the hotels who get the sack when they get repurposed for asylum seekers. Of course.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,313
    ydoethur said:

    I don't know what to make of this.

    https://youtu.be/Q7h_aDZBUmA?si=MYg6JJeWT1UIAKC0

    Trigger warning - includes Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    I can confirm what you should make of it. You either have too much time on your hands or you are not using it wisely. Hth.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 12,397

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Children ‘to lose right to Send support’ except in severe cases
    Schools to take over from parents to deal with the authorities directly for pupils with only ‘moderate’ needs in proposed government reforms to cut soaring bills

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/government-send-reforms-children-mental-health-adhd-sqw68bczx (£££)

    Proposals are at the considered by ministers stage so don't hold your breath.

    The current levels are simply unaffordable and not always needed, but there would be massive outcry - this will not happen.
    Taking a 500ft view, the use of taxis for school transport in particular seems worthy of investigation.

    I’m not saying it’s Minnesotan daycare levels of ‘mismanagement’, but it would be good to know who’s running the taxi companies that benefit and if the job of getting kids to school could be done more efficiently.
    Ferrying kids to school could be done a bit more cheaply but there are fundamental constraints. First, children need to arrive at school at the same time, so there is a morning peak in demand. Second, they need driving home again. Third, this needs to happen every school day. Fourth, at least some drivers will need special training and/or equipment and/or DBS checks.

    So for any one taxi, that is one or two hours in the morning, and the same in the afternoon, for most of the year, and it will need to be booked in advance. Four hours a day, an hour for lunch, it is almost a full-time job. It's a seller's market.

    Councils might be able to save money by running specialist minibuses but because of parental choice, kids living in one place don't all go to the nearest school (one of my many recurring rants) so it will not be just the one minibus. Savings would be limited even if politics and belief in the preternatural efficiency of private sector solutions (viz taxis) were not factors.
    You can figure out the most efficient route to get children to the relevant school. Some kids will have to get picked up earlier and spend longer on the bus. The issue is the unreasonable demands - door to door service with no waiting time - and the fact that councils accommodate.
    A considerable number of private schools run school buses. These are quite popular in West London, judging from the local drop off/pickup points.

    There’s obviously the issue of whether the SEND kids can adapt to it. Some will love it - years ago, my ex hand a daughter who had quite severe issues, requiring a specialist school. The child adored her school bus - which stopped directly outside the house.
    Yes - some also do tailored routes and use apps to opt in/out on a weekly basis - BizzyBus I think
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 12,397

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Children ‘to lose right to Send support’ except in severe cases
    Schools to take over from parents to deal with the authorities directly for pupils with only ‘moderate’ needs in proposed government reforms to cut soaring bills

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/government-send-reforms-children-mental-health-adhd-sqw68bczx (£££)

    Proposals are at the considered by ministers stage so don't hold your breath.

    The current levels are simply unaffordable and not always needed, but there would be massive outcry - this will not happen.
    Taking a 500ft view, the use of taxis for school transport in particular seems worthy of investigation.

    I’m not saying it’s Minnesotan daycare levels of ‘mismanagement’, but it would be good to know who’s running the taxi companies that benefit and if the job of getting kids to school could be done more efficiently.
    Ferrying kids to school could be done a bit more cheaply but there are fundamental constraints. First, children need to arrive at school at the same time, so there is a morning peak in demand. Second, they need driving home again. Third, this needs to happen every school day. Fourth, at least some drivers will need special training and/or equipment and/or DBS checks.

    So for any one taxi, that is one or two hours in the morning, and the same in the afternoon, for most of the year, and it will need to be booked in advance. Four hours a day, an hour for lunch, it is almost a full-time job. It's a seller's market.

    Councils might be able to save money by running specialist minibuses but because of parental choice, kids living in one place don't all go to the nearest school (one of my many recurring rants) so it will not be just the one minibus. Savings would be limited even if politics and belief in the preternatural efficiency of private sector solutions (viz taxis) were not factors.
    You can figure out the most efficient route to get children to the relevant school. Some kids will have to get picked up earlier and spend longer on the bus. The issue is the unreasonable demands - door to door service with no waiting time - and the fact that councils accommodate.
    Small, but perfectly formed difficulty. Many of these children refuse to get on a bus, or interact in any way with other people, children and adults. Sometimes they're down, effectively, to inter-acting with just one parent.

    It's NOT EASY!
    I never said it was easy. So use my solution for the 80% and provide higher touch (as it were) support for the harder cases
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,107
    Sky:

    'Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey, meanwhile, celebrated his party's performance in the local elections back in May, and looked forward to a successful performance in this year's round of council and assembly votes.

    "We can win again in 2026 - in Scotland, Wales and across England," he said.'

    Scotland and Wales? I think he's been on the cooking sherry.

    N9tice he didn't mention the LibDems lacklustre performance in national opinion polls.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,774
    edited 5:54PM
    Labour and the Conservatives are a threat to our national security.

    Says the Welsh Reform Party whose leader has just been jailed for ten years for being a Russian asset.

    https://x.com/RUKWales/status/2005564469603434881
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,313

    Sky:

    'Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey, meanwhile, celebrated his party's performance in the local elections back in May, and looked forward to a successful performance in this year's round of council and assembly votes.

    "We can win again in 2026 - in Scotland, Wales and across England," he said.'

    Scotland and Wales? I think he's been on the cooking sherry.

    N9tice he didn't mention the LibDems lacklustre performance in national opinion polls.

    He can hardly say "We will probably do alright again because the Tories will probably do badly. If that changes we'd be shafted though".
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,346

    Sky:

    'Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey, meanwhile, celebrated his party's performance in the local elections back in May, and looked forward to a successful performance in this year's round of council and assembly votes.

    "We can win again in 2026 - in Scotland, Wales and across England," he said.'

    Scotland and Wales? I think he's been on the cooking sherry.

    N9tice he didn't mention the LibDems lacklustre performance in national opinion polls.

    There should be a Ed Davey exit market on BF. Really very hard to price, but that's why there should be one.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,622

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Children ‘to lose right to Send support’ except in severe cases
    Schools to take over from parents to deal with the authorities directly for pupils with only ‘moderate’ needs in proposed government reforms to cut soaring bills

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/government-send-reforms-children-mental-health-adhd-sqw68bczx (£££)

    Proposals are at the considered by ministers stage so don't hold your breath.

    The current levels are simply unaffordable and not always needed, but there would be massive outcry - this will not happen.
    Taking a 500ft view, the use of taxis for school transport in particular seems worthy of investigation.

    I’m not saying it’s Minnesotan daycare levels of ‘mismanagement’, but it would be good to know who’s running the taxi companies that benefit and if the job of getting kids to school could be done more efficiently.
    Ferrying kids to school could be done a bit more cheaply but there are fundamental constraints. First, children need to arrive at school at the same time, so there is a morning peak in demand. Second, they need driving home again. Third, this needs to happen every school day. Fourth, at least some drivers will need special training and/or equipment and/or DBS checks.

    So for any one taxi, that is one or two hours in the morning, and the same in the afternoon, for most of the year, and it will need to be booked in advance. Four hours a day, an hour for lunch, it is almost a full-time job. It's a seller's market.

    Councils might be able to save money by running specialist minibuses but because of parental choice, kids living in one place don't all go to the nearest school (one of my many recurring rants) so it will not be just the one minibus. Savings would be limited even if politics and belief in the preternatural efficiency of private sector solutions (viz taxis) were not factors.
    You can figure out the most efficient route to get children to the relevant school. Some kids will have to get picked up earlier and spend longer on the bus. The issue is the unreasonable demands - door to door service with no waiting time - and the fact that councils accommodate.
    A considerable number of private schools run school buses. These are quite popular in West London, judging from the local drop off/pickup points.

    There’s obviously the issue of whether the SEND kids can adapt to it. Some will love it - years ago, my ex hand a daughter who had quite severe issues, requiring a specialist school. The child adored her school bus - which stopped directly outside the house.
    Yes - some also do tailored routes and use apps to opt in/out on a weekly basis - BizzyBus I think
    Hers was Star Bus or something similar.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,338

    ydoethur said:

    I don't know what to make of this.

    https://youtu.be/Q7h_aDZBUmA?si=MYg6JJeWT1UIAKC0

    Trigger warning - includes Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    I can confirm what you should make of it. You either have too much time on your hands or you are not using it wisely. Hth.
    He looked quite scruffy, by his (alleged) standards. Misshapen suit, tie adrift.

    And starting from a premise that I don't think is correct.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,622

    ydoethur said:

    I don't know what to make of this.

    https://youtu.be/Q7h_aDZBUmA?si=MYg6JJeWT1UIAKC0

    Trigger warning - includes Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    I can confirm what you should make of it. You either have too much time on your hands or you are not using it wisely. Hth.
    Skimmed through it - most of it is pointing out that by the time Labour changes leader (if they do) the window to implement policies before the next election will have closed.

    That’s actually a good point and something to factor into betting.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,107
    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    MattW said:

    BobbyJ is sounding a little bit over-optimistic in his assessment of his position:

    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/2006652583147090173

    Someone who was personally involved in screwing up on all the measures he mentions in the video when previously in government, wants us to believe he has all the answers.
    There was a Home Office Minister called Jobert Renrick who put all the asylum seekers into 5* hotels. Different chap I believe.
    I thought all the jacuzzis were closed which makes them “not 5* hotels”?
    Not according to GB News and the Daily Mail. I believe those hotels without a spa had one fitted by the Labour Government when they arrived in office, at the same time they handed out the Motability Maseratis.
    Motability Maseratis - poppycock.

    Motability Bugattis - obviously.

    What kind of a CommieSymp are you?

    I seem to recall a Frank & Earnest debate with several hundred SeanTs - trying to get him to admit that the hotels were all budget…

    Personally, I think the hotel thing is another example of how Process pushes society into poor solutions. Every other idea for storing migrants was tried. Each was defeated by legal process. The hotels were used because the legal advice was that no Process was required to use them - simply block book for x years.

    We see similar in things such as mass battery storage. It may not be the best, cheapest etc. but there is next to nothing that can stop you putting a couple of ISO containers on your land.
    Clearly those complaining about luxury hotels accommodating asylum seekers have never stayed at the Macclesfield Travelodge.

    Slightly paraphrasing your comment, could it be that hotels are actually the optimal short term accommodation for asylum seekers, given they need to go somewhere? Hotels are highly space efficient bed factories for transient populations. Importantly for a controversial policy, they already exist so impacts on other people are minimised. I suspect if contracts are managed properly that they are also cost effective.
    Why the hell is anyone fretting about hotels.

    A govt scheme is giving money to councils to build social housing for Asylum seekers.

    At least five have volunteered (Brighton, of course, being one): with up to 200 interested.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/councils-turn-derelict-properties-into-asylum-seeker-housing-4124314?srsltid=AfmBOorQQhhlRkh3-M1RUH5me1bqdvKP_mMa6D7BjwBySs-HpUr1RSRT

    https://theisleofthanetnews.com/2025/12/31/thanet-put-forward-for-government-pilot-scheme-to-provide-council-housing-for-people-seeking-asylum/

    If locals waiting for homes, often for years, are upset by this just tell them they’re racist. Usually does the trick and shuts them up 👍
    To my point #2. Hotels already exist for transient populations so it minimises impacts on locals.
    Apart from those who,work in the hotels who get the sack when they get repurposed for asylum seekers. Of course.
    And those who use the gym, or wish to book the function room for a family get together.

    Or people who, you know, need to book a hotel room for the night.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,313

    ydoethur said:

    I don't know what to make of this.

    https://youtu.be/Q7h_aDZBUmA?si=MYg6JJeWT1UIAKC0

    Trigger warning - includes Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    I can confirm what you should make of it. You either have too much time on your hands or you are not using it wisely. Hth.
    Skimmed through it - most of it is pointing out that by the time Labour changes leader (if they do) the window to implement policies before the next election will have closed.

    That’s actually a good point and something to factor into betting.
    Implement policies? What is this weird thing you speak of?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,968

    Sandpit said:

    I am delighted to see that we do not have any Coldplay fans on PB.

    Someone has a new year’s rush of blood to the head.
    Hah!

    I was going to use another band but realised Robert would have banned me none of you will have ever heard of Black Lace.
    I gadoo heard of them!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,107
    Barnesian said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    MattW said:

    BobbyJ is sounding a little bit over-optimistic in his assessment of his position:

    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/2006652583147090173

    Someone who was personally involved in screwing up on all the measures he mentions in the video when previously in government, wants us to believe he has all the answers.
    There was a Home Office Minister called Jobert Renrick who put all the asylum seekers into 5* hotels. Different chap I believe.
    That's a rubbish limerick. Let me try to improve;

    There was a Home Office Minister called Jenrick
    He was a bit of a jab in the arm
    Nonetheless he went too far
    In the future he'll be mainly at the bar
    That jumped up complete Richard.
    Oh, dear, surely we can improve on that.

    There was once a young minister called Jenrick
    Whose policies were - who would have kenned it?
    Exactly the same
    As the ones he defamed:
    And his political career was thus ended.
    There once was a fellow named Jenrick,
    Whose logic was truly eccentric.
    The views he’d decried
    He adopted with pride,
    Till his polling turned quite atmospheric.
    I've got as far as rhyming BobbyJ with popinjay, but now I'm stuck.

    I'm better at haiku.

    Pretentious Tory
    The world revolves around him.
    He loves to think so.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,107

    Sky:

    'Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey, meanwhile, celebrated his party's performance in the local elections back in May, and looked forward to a successful performance in this year's round of council and assembly votes.

    "We can win again in 2026 - in Scotland, Wales and across England," he said.'

    Scotland and Wales? I think he's been on the cooking sherry.

    N9tice he didn't mention the LibDems lacklustre performance in national opinion polls.

    By elections occur all the time in all places
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,814
    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Happy new year, everyone!

    I've got a big slow-cooker chilli on the go to see me through the next few cold days. Lots of chorizo in it which is making the kitchen smell comforting already.

    has to be steak pie on 1st January
    Butcher pie with puff pastry.

    (Actually we're having chicken stew for logistical reasons. The butcher pie (chicken and ham) was a few days back.)
    Happy New Year to all PBers.

    Lunch was celery, walnut and date salad with a lemon dressing.

    Dinner the stock from the Xmas roast remnants plus more surplus celery and carrots and shallots (I bought way too much veg last week) into a slow cooked chicken casserole.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,968
    edited 6:08PM
    LOL at the story of the “dead” Denis Kasputin.

    https://x.com/the_real_itdude/status/2006714837171077272

    TL:DR the Russians put a $500k bounty on his head, and Ukranian spooks convinced Moscow they’d killed him to the point that the bounty got paid out. He wasn’t dead, he’s still working for Ukraine.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,107
    Tucking into the turnip soup.

    I declare it to be a success.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,523

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    MattW said:

    BobbyJ is sounding a little bit over-optimistic in his assessment of his position:

    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/2006652583147090173

    Someone who was personally involved in screwing up on all the measures he mentions in the video when previously in government, wants us to believe he has all the answers.
    There was a Home Office Minister called Jobert Renrick who put all the asylum seekers into 5* hotels. Different chap I believe.
    I thought all the jacuzzis were closed which makes them “not 5* hotels”?
    Not according to GB News and the Daily Mail. I believe those hotels without a spa had one fitted by the Labour Government when they arrived in office, at the same time they handed out the Motability Maseratis.
    Motability Maseratis - poppycock.

    Motability Bugattis - obviously.

    What kind of a CommieSymp are you?

    I seem to recall a Frank & Earnest debate with several hundred SeanTs - trying to get him to admit that the hotels were all budget…

    Personally, I think the hotel thing is another example of how Process pushes society into poor solutions. Every other idea for storing migrants was tried. Each was defeated by legal process. The hotels were used because the legal advice was that no Process was required to use them - simply block book for x years.

    We see similar in things such as mass battery storage. It may not be the best, cheapest etc. but there is next to nothing that can stop you putting a couple of ISO containers on your land.
    Clearly those complaining about luxury hotels accommodating asylum seekers have never stayed at the Macclesfield Travelodge.

    Slightly paraphrasing your comment, could it be that hotels are actually the optimal short term accommodation for asylum seekers, given they need to go somewhere? Hotels are highly space efficient bed factories for transient populations. Importantly for a controversial policy, they already exist so impacts on other people are minimised. I suspect if contracts are managed properly that they are also cost effective.
    Why the hell is anyone fretting about hotels.

    A govt scheme is giving money to councils to build social housing for Asylum seekers.

    At least five have volunteered (Brighton, of course, being one): with up to 200 interested.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/councils-turn-derelict-properties-into-asylum-seeker-housing-4124314?srsltid=AfmBOorQQhhlRkh3-M1RUH5me1bqdvKP_mMa6D7BjwBySs-HpUr1RSRT

    https://theisleofthanetnews.com/2025/12/31/thanet-put-forward-for-government-pilot-scheme-to-provide-council-housing-for-people-seeking-asylum/

    If locals waiting for homes, often for years, are upset by this just tell them they’re racist. Usually does the trick and shuts them up 👍
    To my point #2. Hotels already exist for transient populations so it minimises impacts on locals.
    Apart from those who,work in the hotels who get the sack when they get repurposed for asylum seekers. Of course.
    And those who use the gym, or wish to book the function room for a family get together.

    Or people who, you know, need to book a hotel room for the night.
    I remember overseas visitors turning up, in the summer, to a hotel they had bookings in which had since been repurposed for asylum seekers. The kinder online contingent on social media blamed them for booking the hotel 😂
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,478
    edited 6:13PM

    Tucking into the turnip soup.

    I declare it to be a success.

    These had better be Scottish turnips, or you are in trouble.

    No other nationality is allowed on PB.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,964
    Taz said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MattW said:

    "Don't drive like pricks in '26"

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/u0HX8q4f0GE

    Too late. Did the first "Double Castle" of 2026 this morning.
    In an MG Maestro Turbo !
    Bimota KB998. It took me 2 hours 15 minutes to clean it this afternoon.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 8,122

    Tucking into the turnip soup.

    I declare it to be a success.

    Sounds good.

    I have just done up some braised red cabbage (15p each, thank-you Tesco) for the freezer with old apples, onions, spices and vinegar.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,107
    MattW said:

    Tucking into the turnip soup.

    I declare it to be a success.

    These had better be Scottish turnips, or you are in trouble.
    It was advertised as a 'Swede', but in my book it is a turnip. Organic, btw.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,346
    Dura_Ace said:

    Taz said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MattW said:

    "Don't drive like pricks in '26"

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/u0HX8q4f0GE

    Too late. Did the first "Double Castle" of 2026 this morning.
    In an MG Maestro Turbo !
    Bimota KB998. It took me 2 hours 15 minutes to clean it this afternoon.
    Those bits of pedestrians can really stick.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,205
    edited 6:18PM
    I just had a very interesting discussion with Grok about my upcoming walk down the west of France. It gave me plenty of useful looking advice, similar to a recent chat with Google AI

    I told it my holiday motto*, and that I like to drink beer while walking. It gave me a whole load more advice, centred around beer. And a cracking suggestion: put that motto on a T-shirt; people might buy you beer

    Well done Grok. All of my T-shirts will say that!

    *Je marche partout, et je bois comme un trou. In case you didn’t know
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,523
    carnforth said:

    Tucking into the turnip soup.

    I declare it to be a success.

    Sounds good.

    I have just done up some braised red cabbage (15p each, thank-you Tesco) for the freezer with old apples, onions, spices and vinegar.
    I made this for Xmas dinner.

    Most nice

    https://foodnetwork.co.uk/recipes/tom-kerridges-best-red-cabbage-with-cranberry-sauce
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,980
    Dura_Ace said:

    Taz said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MattW said:

    "Don't drive like pricks in '26"

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/u0HX8q4f0GE

    Too late. Did the first "Double Castle" of 2026 this morning.
    In an MG Maestro Turbo !
    Bimota KB998. It took me 2 hours 15 minutes to clean it this afternoon.
    Disappointed you didn’t take your Morgan out.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,095
    ydoethur said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai is the first Russian oil refinery to be hit by Ukrainian drones in 2026. Previously targeted in November and September of 2025, it has a capacity of 6.5 million tons and is the... 26th largest refinery in Russia with about 2% of total Russian capacity.

    Also hit overnight was an oil terminal in Tartarstan that processes and stores crude oil from northern Russia oilfields. If the Ukrainians can damage that it might force some of the oil wells to shut down.

    And once shut down, oil wells can take years to restart so Russia will not want to allow that.
    Russia may not want =/= Russia can enforce.

    This winter is going to be brutal for all concerned in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Ukrainians have endured 4 winters of it. Up to now, Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg have endured 0. The shock for metropolitan Russians will be severe.
    Parts of Moscow and St.P spent last night without power, and at least four O&G facilities put on a free fireworks show.

    My prediction for ‘26 is that ordinary metropolitan Russians finally start to feel that their country is at war.
    My prediction for 2026 is that we'll be inundated with anniversaries: 10 years since Brexit; 100 years since the Great Depression; and that's just the big ones. 50 years since the long, hot summer of 76; 60 years since England won the World Cup (since renamed the Men's World Cup; no doubt soon to be renamed the Trump World Cup).
    250 years of the US.
    1783?
    Yes, strictly speaking that's when the USA became a legal entity, not 1776.
    The Articles of Confederation established a national government before 1783, albeit a weak one.

    https://history.state.gov/milestones/1776-1783/articles
    Someone’s told Trump it’s 250 years this year, so don’t confuse him with facts. He won’t be President in 7 years months time, anyway.
    Fixed.
    I would say 'we can but hope,' but if Trump is removed in the next 7 months that makes Vance President.

    And that would be the greater of two evils.
    Are you sure? Satan Miller appears to be running the show at present. Is Vance really worse than Miller? If Vance is a ten on the 1-10 scale of evil, Miller must be at least a 90 out of ten.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,107
    Taz said:

    carnforth said:

    Tucking into the turnip soup.

    I declare it to be a success.

    Sounds good.

    I have just done up some braised red cabbage (15p each, thank-you Tesco) for the freezer with old apples, onions, spices and vinegar.
    I made this for Xmas dinner.

    Most nice

    https://foodnetwork.co.uk/recipes/tom-kerridges-best-red-cabbage-with-cranberry-sauce
    I've been to Mostnice in Slovenia. Twice.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,622
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    MattW said:

    BobbyJ is sounding a little bit over-optimistic in his assessment of his position:

    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/2006652583147090173

    Someone who was personally involved in screwing up on all the measures he mentions in the video when previously in government, wants us to believe he has all the answers.
    There was a Home Office Minister called Jobert Renrick who put all the asylum seekers into 5* hotels. Different chap I believe.
    I thought all the jacuzzis were closed which makes them “not 5* hotels”?
    Not according to GB News and the Daily Mail. I believe those hotels without a spa had one fitted by the Labour Government when they arrived in office, at the same time they handed out the Motability Maseratis.
    Motability Maseratis - poppycock.

    Motability Bugattis - obviously.

    What kind of a CommieSymp are you?

    I seem to recall a Frank & Earnest debate with several hundred SeanTs - trying to get him to admit that the hotels were all budget…

    Personally, I think the hotel thing is another example of how Process pushes society into poor solutions. Every other idea for storing migrants was tried. Each was defeated by legal process. The hotels were used because the legal advice was that no Process was required to use them - simply block book for x years.

    We see similar in things such as mass battery storage. It may not be the best, cheapest etc. but there is next to nothing that can stop you putting a couple of ISO containers on your land.
    Clearly those complaining about luxury hotels accommodating asylum seekers have never stayed at the Macclesfield Travelodge.

    Slightly paraphrasing your comment, could it be that hotels are actually the optimal short term accommodation for asylum seekers, given they need to go somewhere? Hotels are highly space efficient bed factories for transient populations. Importantly for a controversial policy, they already exist so impacts on other people are minimised. I suspect if contracts are managed properly that they are also cost effective.
    Why the hell is anyone fretting about hotels.

    A govt scheme is giving money to councils to build social housing for Asylum seekers.

    At least five have volunteered (Brighton, of course, being one): with up to 200 interested.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/councils-turn-derelict-properties-into-asylum-seeker-housing-4124314?srsltid=AfmBOorQQhhlRkh3-M1RUH5me1bqdvKP_mMa6D7BjwBySs-HpUr1RSRT

    https://theisleofthanetnews.com/2025/12/31/thanet-put-forward-for-government-pilot-scheme-to-provide-council-housing-for-people-seeking-asylum/

    If locals waiting for homes, often for years, are upset by this just tell them they’re racist. Usually does the trick and shuts them up 👍
    To my point #2. Hotels already exist for transient populations so it minimises impacts on locals.
    Apart from those who,work in the hotels who get the sack when they get repurposed for asylum seekers. Of course.
    And those who use the gym, or wish to book the function room for a family get together.

    Or people who, you know, need to book a hotel room for the night.
    I remember overseas visitors turning up, in the summer, to a hotel they had bookings in which had since been repurposed for asylum seekers. The kinder online contingent on social media blamed them for booking the hotel 😂
    Creative incompetence by the hotel owners?

    For my first visit to Reading Festival, our group had planned it practically a year in advance - post exam stuff at uni.

    I booked a room in budget hotel locally and paid a deposit. With a couple of months to go, the manager rang me to try and break the booking - the hotel was supposed to be block booked for the support crews.

    I held on. Some people laughed about over preparing. Then realised I had the only clean toilet and a shower that worked.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,107
    boulay said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Taz said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MattW said:

    "Don't drive like pricks in '26"

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/u0HX8q4f0GE

    Too late. Did the first "Double Castle" of 2026 this morning.
    In an MG Maestro Turbo !
    Bimota KB998. It took me 2 hours 15 minutes to clean it this afternoon.
    Disappointed you didn’t take your Morgan out.
    Is that a euphemism?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,785
    Evening all :)

    I see the Friends of Ed Davey are out in force this evening.

    A 15% poll rating (according to YouGov) with the Conservatives on 19% reads pretty well for LDs defending their seats at this stage and the local by-election results in LD seats reflect that.

    Rather like the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats have islands of activity surrounded by oceans of weakness.

    The question for London LDs in May is not whether they can win Newham but whether they can make further progress in Merton and any progress in some of the other foothold Boroughs (as well as keeping Sutton, Richmond and Kingston). Reform may assist in those aims.

    Davey became LD leader in August 2020, about four months after Starmer became Labour leader so he's only been party leader for five and a bit years. He's been the most successful LD leader since Paddy Ashdown and like Paddy has a lot for which to thank the Conservative Party. Given the incredible volatility de nos jours, I wouldn't go far as to say he will lead the party into the next election but it seems the most likely option and assuming a further advance or consolidation he might stand down a year or two later in favour of.....well, who knows?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,980

    boulay said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Taz said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MattW said:

    "Don't drive like pricks in '26"

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/u0HX8q4f0GE

    Too late. Did the first "Double Castle" of 2026 this morning.
    In an MG Maestro Turbo !
    Bimota KB998. It took me 2 hours 15 minutes to clean it this afternoon.
    Disappointed you didn’t take your Morgan out.
    Is that a euphemism?
    I did have to correct it in time as left the “M” off. Could have been very bad.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,980

    Taz said:

    carnforth said:

    Tucking into the turnip soup.

    I declare it to be a success.

    Sounds good.

    I have just done up some braised red cabbage (15p each, thank-you Tesco) for the freezer with old apples, onions, spices and vinegar.
    I made this for Xmas dinner.

    Most nice

    https://foodnetwork.co.uk/recipes/tom-kerridges-best-red-cabbage-with-cranberry-sauce
    I've been to Mostnice in Slovenia. Twice.
    Is Mostnice nicer than Nice?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,964
    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,205
    edited 6:37PM
    I’m abundantly pleased with myself that I appear to have invented the sentence that is my motto. It rhymes, contains a well used idiom, and perfectly describes my holidays. And it makes all the French people laugh (with, not at.. I’m pretty sure)

    ETA my French at school ended with an A at GCSE when I was fourteen. I’m much more confident now, but only a bit more knowledgeable of the language
  • isamisam Posts: 43,283
    I watched the first of a twenty four part series about the Iron Curtain earlier. It was on the BBC in 1998, and narrated by Kenneth Branagh. One thing that struck me immediately was the use of the past tense to describe what had happened, rather than the modern trend of using the present, which I find really irritating
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,664
    In many parts of the US, "special needs" children are picked up in special, short buses. Including in my district (Lake Washington). So far as I know the system works reasonably well.

    (Although, not suprisingly, this has led to the "short bus people" sneer.)

    Similar buses are used by MetroKC, for the severely disabled in King County. (Ordinary buses, which I often ride, can accomodate most people in wheelchairs, or using walkers.)

    (For the record: MetroKC subsidizes rides for oldies like me. It costs me a dollar for a ride, and I can use the transfer I can get when I board to return, for example, from a shopping trip, since the transfer lasts for four hours.)
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,107

    In many parts of the US, "special needs" children are picked up in special, short buses. Including in my district (Lake Washington). So far as I know the system works reasonably well.

    (Although, not suprisingly, this has led to the "short bus people" sneer.)

    Similar buses are used by MetroKC, for the severely disabled in King County. (Ordinary buses, which I often ride, can accomodate most people in wheelchairs, or using walkers.)

    (For the record: MetroKC subsidizes rides for oldies like me. It costs me a dollar for a ride, and I can use the transfer I can get when I board to return, for example, from a shopping trip, since the transfer lasts for four hours.)

    It does indicate how nasty some kids can be. There are exceptions though. I finished my teaching career at a private school which had a lot more special needs children of some sort or other, most of them in mainstream lessons. Most were accepted without question in lessons and not teased or bullied.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,144
    MattW said:

    Tucking into the turnip soup.

    I declare it to be a success.

    These had better be Scottish turnips, or you are in trouble.

    No other nationality is allowed on PB.
    *Whispers*
    Also known as swedes.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,720
    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    An unlikely new hero Tucker Carlson and from what i hear people are listening-though Israelis backed by Trump are an easy target

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CymTspAA8rI
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,856
    Dura_Ace said:


    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.

    They are cereal killers.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,313
    For anyone who trades or bets in Crypto worth knowing HMRC are mandating access of trade history from crypto exchanges.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgl2je65klo

    The BBC even somehow managed to find an expert to comment on this new register called Dawn Register.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,205
    I brewed New Year beer today

    It was SMASH (Single Malt And Single Hop) - Golden Promise and Centennial - IPA

    I believe it will be good
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,622

    In many parts of the US, "special needs" children are picked up in special, short buses. Including in my district (Lake Washington). So far as I know the system works reasonably well.

    (Although, not suprisingly, this has led to the "short bus people" sneer.)

    Similar buses are used by MetroKC, for the severely disabled in King County. (Ordinary buses, which I often ride, can accomodate most people in wheelchairs, or using walkers.)

    (For the record: MetroKC subsidizes rides for oldies like me. It costs me a dollar for a ride, and I can use the transfer I can get when I board to return, for example, from a shopping trip, since the transfer lasts for four hours.)

    It does indicate how nasty some kids can be. There are exceptions though. I finished my teaching career at a private school which had a lot more special needs children of some sort or other, most of them in mainstream lessons. Most were accepted without question in lessons and not teased or bullied.
    The “short bus” snear is quite often an adult insult.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,313

    Dura_Ace said:


    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.

    They are cereal killers.
    JD Vance does the Frosties receptions for the Ukranians.
    MTG and Loomer compete for the poptart.
    Too many to mention for the crunchy nuts.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,095

    Dura_Ace said:


    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.

    They are cereal killers.
    JD Vance does the Frosties receptions for the Ukranians.
    MTG and Loomer compete for the poptart.
    Too many to mention for the crunchy nuts.
    ...and a heck of a lot of Froot Loops.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,790
    isam said:

    I watched the first of a twenty four part series about the Iron Curtain earlier. It was on the BBC in 1998, and narrated by Kenneth Branagh. One thing that struck me immediately was the use of the past tense to describe what had happened, rather than the modern trend of using the present, which I find really irritating

    That's a really good series. I still use it today when teaching the Cold War, especially the episodes on Berlin (1948/61) Korea and Cuba.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,622

    Dura_Ace said:


    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.

    They are cereal killers.
    JD Vance does the Frosties receptions for the Ukranians.
    MTG and Loomer compete for the poptart.
    Too many to mention for the crunchy nuts.
    Shirley, Your Party has a lock on the Fruit & Nuts option?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,095

    Dura_Ace said:


    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.

    They are cereal killers.
    JD Vance does the Frosties receptions for the Ukranians.
    MTG and Loomer compete for the poptart.
    Too many to mention for the crunchy nuts.
    Shirley, Your Party has a lock on the Fruit & Nuts option?
    With extra sultanas?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,111

    Dura_Ace said:


    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.

    They are cereal killers.
    JD Vance does the Frosties receptions for the Ukranians.
    MTG and Loomer compete for the poptart.
    Too many to mention for the crunchy nuts.
    Shirley, Your Party has a lock on the Fruit & Nuts option?
    Is Your Party still any sort of thing?

    Apart from a terrible warning?
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,585

    For anyone who trades or bets in Crypto worth knowing HMRC are mandating access of trade history from crypto exchanges.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgl2je65klo

    The BBC even somehow managed to find an expert to comment on this new register called Dawn Register.

    Will it affect people who use it to buy completely legal things on the dark web? Asking for a friend.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,643
    edited 7:16PM
    isam said:

    I watched the first of a twenty four part series about the Iron Curtain earlier. It was on the BBC in 1998, and narrated by Kenneth Branagh. One thing that struck me immediately was the use of the past tense to describe what had happened, rather than the modern trend of using the present, which I find really irritating

    Yes. That "it's a cold night in Paris in 1789 and a young man in tight breeches approaches the Bastille wishing he'd brought a coat" technique is a bit overdone.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,313
    CatMan said:

    For anyone who trades or bets in Crypto worth knowing HMRC are mandating access of trade history from crypto exchanges.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgl2je65klo

    The BBC even somehow managed to find an expert to comment on this new register called Dawn Register.

    Will it affect people who use it to buy completely legal things on the dark web? Asking for a friend.
    Eventually why not? Initially I suspect it will be very much looking for missing CGT (which the taxpayers may not even realise is due). Money laundering probably tackled next before they bother with general law enforcement.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,622

    Dura_Ace said:


    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.

    They are cereal killers.
    JD Vance does the Frosties receptions for the Ukranians.
    MTG and Loomer compete for the poptart.
    Too many to mention for the crunchy nuts.
    Shirley, Your Party has a lock on the Fruit & Nuts option?
    Is Your Party still any sort of thing?

    Apart from a terrible warning?
    It’s not often that a political party dedicates itself, so fully, to becoming a Monty Python skit.

    Times are tough for many - anything that brings a smile is welcome.
  • TresTres Posts: 3,354
    CatMan said:

    For anyone who trades or bets in Crypto worth knowing HMRC are mandating access of trade history from crypto exchanges.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgl2je65klo

    The BBC even somehow managed to find an expert to comment on this new register called Dawn Register.

    Will it affect people who use it to buy completely legal things on the dark web? Asking for a friend.
    I think they mainly interested in capital gains.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,643
    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    My geopolitical sense of all this is that Trump wants to bomb Africans.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,772
    CatMan said:

    For anyone who trades or bets in Crypto worth knowing HMRC are mandating access of trade history from crypto exchanges.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgl2je65klo

    The BBC even somehow managed to find an expert to comment on this new register called Dawn Register.

    Will it affect people who use it to buy completely legal things on the dark web? Asking for a friend.
    My understanding is that that is all Monero these days (which PBers hopefully bought into when tipped it); so if you buy BTC and convert it to Monero which you store in your self hosted wallet then you'll be fine.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,523

    For anyone who trades or bets in Crypto worth knowing HMRC are mandating access of trade history from crypto exchanges.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgl2je65klo

    The BBC even somehow managed to find an expert to comment on this new register called Dawn Register.

    I had to fill in something on Vinted, for HMRC, for selling 250:quid of old clothes in the last 12 months.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,095
    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    My geopolitical sense of all this is that Trump wants to bomb Africans.
    And not necessarily those living on the continent of Africa.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,282
    I notice the Guardian has chose this moment to publish a piece by the Iranian foreign minister. I wonder if they will give a right of reply to an Iranian dissident.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,313
    rcs1000 said:

    CatMan said:

    For anyone who trades or bets in Crypto worth knowing HMRC are mandating access of trade history from crypto exchanges.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgl2je65klo

    The BBC even somehow managed to find an expert to comment on this new register called Dawn Register.

    Will it affect people who use it to buy completely legal things on the dark web? Asking for a friend.
    My understanding is that that is all Monero these days (which PBers hopefully bought into when tipped it); so if you buy BTC and convert it to Monero which you store in your self hosted wallet then you'll be fine.
    Each BTC-Monero and Monero-BTC round trip then becomes subject to CGT, as do the GBP-BTC ones. Not a problem if only converting one way of course.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,790
    Venison and chicken curry:


    Also with rice, chips, Peshwari naan and mango chutney.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,921
    edited 7:36PM
    The video at 18:58 looks pretty dangerous. It's a promotional clip from 18 months ago.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c8xdxvj2qjdt
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,104
    People this way are setting off fireworks now!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,104

    I notice the Guardian has chose this moment to publish a piece by the Iranian foreign minister. I wonder if they will give a right of reply to an Iranian dissident.

    A Rasht decision?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,622
    ydoethur said:

    Venison and chicken curry:


    Also with rice, chips, Peshwari naan and mango chutney.

    Is there a particular reason for the combination of meats?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,282

    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    My geopolitical sense of all this is that Trump wants to bomb Africans.
    And not necessarily those living on the continent of Africa.
    Nigeria and Venezuela are both oil producers. The conspiratorial view would be he's trying to help Russia with market share.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,205
    Has anyone tried hopwater? Apparently it’s a thing..

    https://www.nytimes.com/wirecutter/reviews/best-hop-water/
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,631
    Over the last seven years coal's share of China's electricity production has fallen from 68% to 55%. Wind and solar have grown from 7% to 21%.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,622
    Andy_JS said:

    The video at 18:58 looks pretty dangerous. It's a promotional clip from 18 months ago.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c8xdxvj2qjdt

    Overheads are notorious for creating these kinds of ceiling fires. Which is where the modern style of stripping out all the ceiling tiles and leaving the a/c ducting etc exposed, in building with concrete ceilings, comes from.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,104
    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    I watched the first of a twenty four part series about the Iron Curtain earlier. It was on the BBC in 1998, and narrated by Kenneth Branagh. One thing that struck me immediately was the use of the past tense to describe what had happened, rather than the modern trend of using the present, which I find really irritating

    That's a really good series. I still use it today when teaching the Cold War, especially the episodes on Berlin (1948/61) Korea and Cuba.
    Wasn't there a series called "Cold War"? I have the book on my shelf.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,643
    edited 7:57PM

    Dura_Ace said:


    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.

    They are cereal killers.
    JD Vance does the Frosties receptions for the Ukranians.
    MTG and Loomer compete for the poptart.
    Too many to mention for the crunchy nuts.
    Shirley, Your Party has a lock on the Fruit & Nuts option?
    Is Your Party still any sort of thing?

    Apart from a terrible warning?
    I suppose it could be a slowburner. One of those things that doesn't do much at first but over time, due to qualities that need unhurried reflection to appreciate, become a force to be reckoned with. Like The Shawshank Redemption.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,104

    ydoethur said:

    Venison and chicken curry:


    Also with rice, chips, Peshwari naan and mango chutney.

    Is there a particular reason for the combination of meats?
    Making it ALL venison would be extremely deer :lol:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,772

    ydoethur said:

    Venison and chicken curry:


    Also with rice, chips, Peshwari naan and mango chutney.

    Is there a particular reason for the combination of meats?
    Making it ALL venison would be extremely deer :lol:
    Didn't peak too early with the puns @Sunil_Prasannan
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,282
    Dura_Ace said:


    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Horseshoe theory of politics alive and well it seems. Maybe we focus too much on ideology. In reality, weirdo sociopathic men for some reason find themselves at opposite ends of the political spectrum but their natural affinity draws them together.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,576
    ydoethur said:

    Venison and chicken curry:


    Also with rice, chips, Peshwari naan and mango chutney.

    To be honest, that looks hideous.

    I hope it tastes better than it looks.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,772

    rcs1000 said:

    CatMan said:

    For anyone who trades or bets in Crypto worth knowing HMRC are mandating access of trade history from crypto exchanges.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgl2je65klo

    The BBC even somehow managed to find an expert to comment on this new register called Dawn Register.

    Will it affect people who use it to buy completely legal things on the dark web? Asking for a friend.
    My understanding is that that is all Monero these days (which PBers hopefully bought into when tipped it); so if you buy BTC and convert it to Monero which you store in your self hosted wallet then you'll be fine.
    Each BTC-Monero and Monero-BTC round trip then becomes subject to CGT, as do the GBP-BTC ones. Not a problem if only converting one way of course.
    If you just want to speculate with Monero, then Coinbase allows you to buy it directly, I think.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,585
    edited 8:02PM

    Andy_JS said:

    The video at 18:58 looks pretty dangerous. It's a promotional clip from 18 months ago.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c8xdxvj2qjdt

    Overheads are notorious for creating these kinds of ceiling fires. Which is where the modern style of stripping out all the ceiling tiles and leaving the a/c ducting etc exposed, in building with concrete ceilings, comes from.
    Reminds me of this (which the start of was caught on video)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Station_nightclub_fire
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,104

    I notice the Guardian has chose this moment to publish a piece by the Iranian foreign minister. I wonder if they will give a right of reply to an Iranian dissident.

    A Rasht decision?
    Nobody got the pun?

    OK. Rasht is a city on the Caspian Sea coast of Iran. It was briefly part of the Russian Empire from 1723-1732.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,772
    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,523
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Venison and chicken curry:


    Also with rice, chips, Peshwari naan and mango chutney.

    To be honest, that looks hideous.

    I hope it tastes better than it looks.
    Did you make the flatbread ?
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,523
    Oh god, we’re watching the fucking Traitors, I’d sooner listen to Keir Starmer talk about his Dads career.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,772

    MattW said:

    Tucking into the turnip soup.

    I declare it to be a success.

    These had better be Scottish turnips, or you are in trouble.
    It was advertised as a 'Swede', but in my book it is a turnip. Organic, btw.
    I hate it when I buy food, and it turns out to be inorganic.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,622
    CatMan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The video at 18:58 looks pretty dangerous. It's a promotional clip from 18 months ago.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c8xdxvj2qjdt

    Overheads are notorious for creating these kinds of ceiling fires. Which is where the modern style of stripping out all the ceiling tiles and leaving the a/c ducting etc exposed, in building with concrete ceilings, comes from.
    Reminds me of this (which the start of was caught on video)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Station_nightclub_fire
    Yup. Many such fires have happened over the years, with that horrible, fast moving fire on the ceiling.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,772
    Has anyone read Embassytown?
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,205
    Does anyone know Portuguese?

    "Eu ando por todo o lado, e bebo como um desalmado"

    I'm going to walk from Lisbon to Santiago next year
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,790

    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    I watched the first of a twenty four part series about the Iron Curtain earlier. It was on the BBC in 1998, and narrated by Kenneth Branagh. One thing that struck me immediately was the use of the past tense to describe what had happened, rather than the modern trend of using the present, which I find really irritating

    That's a really good series. I still use it today when teaching the Cold War, especially the episodes on Berlin (1948/61) Korea and Cuba.
    Wasn't there a series called "Cold War"? I have the book on my shelf.
    Yes, and it’s the one we’re talking about.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,073

    Does anyone know Portuguese?

    "Eu ando por todo o lado, e bebo como um desalmado"

    I'm going to walk from Lisbon to Santiago next year

    In Chile?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,790

    ydoethur said:

    Venison and chicken curry:


    Also with rice, chips, Peshwari naan and mango chutney.

    Is there a particular reason for the combination of meats?
    I had a chicken breast left over that I didn’t know what to do with.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,622
    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    A variant of Russia! Stonk! Theory! is that USA should ally with the Extra Heterosexual Manly Men of Russia (raping conscripts isn't gay, by the way) and work with them against China and the effete, Metrosexual Europeans.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,523

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    A variant of Russia! Stonk! Theory! is that USA should ally with the Extra Heterosexual Manly Men of Russia (raping conscripts isn't gay, by the way) and work with them against China and the effete, Metrosexual Europeans.
    Let’s stonk
    To the rhythm of the honky tonk
    Stick a red nose on your conk
    And let’s stonk.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,282
    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    I suspect Dura and Vance are persuaded by what Jonathan Haidt calls motivated reasoning. They want to be pro Russia so they find a justification for it.

    Lavrov said the other day that if China attacked Taiwan Russia would likely support them. The US might want to go it alone (pace Venezuela) but their adversaries are still capable of aligning themselves.
Sign In or Register to comment.