With YouGov showing the LibDems in fifth, isn't the Davey out bet the one to take?
No, the LDs are also likely to make gains in English counties and districts which have elections and the wealthiest parts of London from the Tories and Labour and rural Scotland and Edinburgh in the May elections from the Tories and SNP
I don't think the Lib Dems will do particularly well at the locals, but the Tories and Labour will also struggle vis a vis Reform. Labour will do badly in Wales and Scotland but will weather the storm. 2027 will be far more significant.
I think it's also partly that the standard system isn't working for standard kids, and so the parents of normal kids are looking for ways to help their children. Pushing hard for SEND assistance is one of the avenues available.
20 years of experience tells me very firmly that you think wrong. You can barely get support for children whose dyslexia makes it nearly impossible for them to read and write without a legal dogfight, never mind anything else.
I remember working with one individual with severe palsy. He couldn't get any funding at all even though he could barely walk to a classroom and when he got there he worked so slowly he was always behind. In desperation his parents scraped together just enough money for private tutors to get him through A-levels. And we did, but it was damned hard. The county still didn't want to bloody know.
Inadequate provision for those with the greatest need is consistent with the argument I made.
The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai is the first Russian oil refinery to be hit by Ukrainian drones in 2026. Previously targeted in November and September of 2025, it has a capacity of 6.5 million tons and is the... 26th largest refinery in Russia with about 2% of total Russian capacity.
Also hit overnight was an oil terminal in Tartarstan that processes and stores crude oil from northern Russia oilfields. If the Ukrainians can damage that it might force some of the oil wells to shut down.
And once shut down, oil wells can take years to restart so Russia will not want to allow that.
Russia may not want =/= Russia can enforce.
This winter is going to be brutal for all concerned in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Ukrainians have endured 4 winters of it. Up to now, Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg have endured 0. The shock for metropolitan Russians will be severe.
Parts of Moscow and St.P spent last night without power, and at least four O&G facilities put on a free fireworks show.
My prediction for ‘26 is that ordinary metropolitan Russians finally start to feel that their country is at war.
My prediction for 2026 is that we'll be inundated with anniversaries: 10 years since Brexit; 100 years since the Great Depression; and that's just the big ones. 50 years since the long, hot summer of 76; 60 years since England won the World Cup (since renamed the Men's World Cup; no doubt soon to be renamed the Trump World Cup).
Trump’s biggest party this year isn’t even going to be the World Cup, it’s going to be the USA’s 250th birthday party on 4th July.
I believe the King is going. William will also be visiting the US next year (for the soccer), and both are expected to go into bay for the government's trade deal with the US.
I think it's also partly that the standard system isn't working for standard kids, and so the parents of normal kids are looking for ways to help their children. Pushing hard for SEND assistance is one of the avenues available.
20 years of experience tells me very firmly that you think wrong. You can barely get support for children whose dyslexia makes it nearly impossible for them to read and write without a legal dogfight, never mind anything else.
I remember working with one individual with severe palsy. He couldn't get any funding at all even though he could barely walk to a classroom and when he got there he worked so slowly he was always behind. In desperation his parents scraped together just enough money for private tutors to get him through A-levels. And we did, but it was damned hard. The county still didn't want to bloody know.
Inadequate provision for those with the greatest need is consistent with the argument I made.
Yes, potentially, but the point is unless you have great need you get pretty much nothing. Taz's thread suggests that used to be different in Wales, but it doesn't seem to have made much difference to costs which again agrees that claiming these things, even if it happens, is not leading to them getting extra support.
I would add, again, in 20 years of working with dyslexic students in unis and schools I've only come across one where a parent was acting as you describe with a child who clearly didn't have special needs. That's against hundreds who clearly did have them but were getting no support at all despite having pushy parents desperate to get help.
The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai is the first Russian oil refinery to be hit by Ukrainian drones in 2026. Previously targeted in November and September of 2025, it has a capacity of 6.5 million tons and is the... 26th largest refinery in Russia with about 2% of total Russian capacity.
Also hit overnight was an oil terminal in Tartarstan that processes and stores crude oil from northern Russia oilfields. If the Ukrainians can damage that it might force some of the oil wells to shut down.
And once shut down, oil wells can take years to restart so Russia will not want to allow that.
Russia may not want =/= Russia can enforce.
This winter is going to be brutal for all concerned in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Ukrainians have endured 4 winters of it. Up to now, Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg have endured 0. The shock for metropolitan Russians will be severe.
Parts of Moscow and St.P spent last night without power, and at least four O&G facilities put on a free fireworks show.
My prediction for ‘26 is that ordinary metropolitan Russians finally start to feel that their country is at war.
Putin has previously told Russians that they are safe with him. That is the bargain - they give up certain freedoms in exchange for securtity and a strong economy. Ooops.
Proposals are at the considered by ministers stage so don't hold your breath.
The current levels are simply unaffordable and not always needed, but there would be massive outcry - this will not happen.
A better question might be to ask why they are unaffordable. Is it, perhaps, because our school system is not well set up to cope with those who do not fit into tidy little boxes?
Or because we start schooling very early - earlier than comparably run systems in Scandinavia - which means that we are forcing children to learn before they are fully ready?
Or the dogmatic insistence on date of birth for start of school?
Or the size of classes?
Or the emphasis on academic subjects (some of which are very badly planned out in terms of content and assessment) in the curriculum?
But nobody seems to be asking those questions. Largely I think because it raises too many awkward revelations about decades of mismanagement (not all of it well-intentioned) by the centre.
All good questions to address wider issues, though well intentioned but too loose 'requirements' which incentivises classification is a matter which if addresses could stem the financial bleeding to give breathing room to look at them.
But definitely not happening. Too many legitimate sob stories and would turbo charge all opposition.
I've worked within the SEND system.
Believe me, it is bloody difficult to get any support for a child. Even with wealthy parents who have high class barristers on tap. Councils just refuse.
There is a reason almost 98% of refusals are overturned on appeal. However, even then most councils won't implement the decision. In Staffordshire, for example, they refuse to provide 1:1 support even where they are ordered to. The only case I know of where that was reversed was where the child's father, who happened to be an equalities lead for a national organisation, took them to court and won.
We should not be asking about how to cut SEND costs. We should be asking instead how they are soaring so rapidly *even though councils are not actually doing what they should be* and therefore we *already* are failing to provide anything like adequate support.
Which means we come back to the system.
So what is Wales doing differently as their costs seem to be being managed and not exploding ?
Do you have figures for that, as it isn't my understanding of the situation?
In 2018 the Welsh rate of SEN was 22.6%. Upon the start of implementation cases immediately dropped 19.0%: from 19.5% in 2020/1 to 15.8% in 2021/2.
2025: the Welsh rate of ALN is just 9.5%.
(for context, the equivalent English figure in 19.6%; Scottish 40.5%)’
A very interesting thread. However, there is one rather important point I think you have missed. That's about the classification of educational needs, not costs. It hasn't cut costs. Quite the contrary, they are soaring even faster than in England.
Total expenditure on SEN/ALN provision in schools by local authorities is budgeted to be £668 million, an increase of £75.8 million or 12.8% compared with the previous year.
29% of the total budgeted SEN/ALN expenditure is delegated to special schools. Notional allocations within nursery, primary, middle and secondary schools account for a further 40% of the total. The remaining 31% is non-delegated money held centrally by local authorities.
Denbighshire delegate the largest proportion of their SEN/ALN budget to their schools at 84%, whilst Merthyr Tydfil delegate the smallest proportion at 49%.
Total SEN/ALN expenditure per pupil for Wales is budgeted to be £1,486. This consists of £1,028 delegated expenditure per pupil and £458 non-delegated expenditure per pupil.
Merthyr Tydfil has the largest SEN/ALN budget per pupil at £2,258, whilst Rhondda Cynon Taf has the smallest SEN/ALN budget per pupil at £1,086.
The charts for expenditure over time are also available. Since the date this new approach you highlight was brought in, the costs have just about doubled.
This may be due to legacy issues, of course, but you would not expect such a dramatic rise if the policy you outline was having a significant financial effect.
I have t missed anything. It is not my thread. I was asking about it.
The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai is the first Russian oil refinery to be hit by Ukrainian drones in 2026. Previously targeted in November and September of 2025, it has a capacity of 6.5 million tons and is the... 26th largest refinery in Russia with about 2% of total Russian capacity.
Also hit overnight was an oil terminal in Tartarstan that processes and stores crude oil from northern Russia oilfields. If the Ukrainians can damage that it might force some of the oil wells to shut down.
And once shut down, oil wells can take years to restart so Russia will not want to allow that.
Russia may not want =/= Russia can enforce.
This winter is going to be brutal for all concerned in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Ukrainians have endured 4 winters of it. Up to now, Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg have endured 0. The shock for metropolitan Russians will be severe.
Parts of Moscow and St.P spent last night without power, and at least four O&G facilities put on a free fireworks show.
My prediction for ‘26 is that ordinary metropolitan Russians finally start to feel that their country is at war.
My prediction for 2026 is that we'll be inundated with anniversaries: 10 years since Brexit; 100 years since the Great Depression; and that's just the big ones. 50 years since the long, hot summer of 76; 60 years since England won the World Cup (since renamed the Men's World Cup; no doubt soon to be renamed the Trump World Cup).
My predictions for 2026: Badenoch and Starmer still in place on 31st December. Reform do not have a clear polling lead by the end of the year.
And for the next GE: Reform to come either second or third in respect of both votes and seats.
The winnings for having laid Starmer and Badenoch's departure during 2025 has just dropped into my account, and reinvesting some of it for the same outcome this year, while the odds for a lay still look attractive, is worth a punt IMHO.
I think fourth in seats and quite possibly fourth in votes too.
That would be nice.
Is 2026 the year when the wheels start coming off Reform. To me the big indicator at the moment is the lack of sane, thoughtful big name defectors. Even though Reform in a sense don't want them from other parties as it taints their ghastly brand, the question is whether the potential defectors need Reform.
Danny Kruger stands out a mile as being a more or less rational reasonably well known, house trained defector. The fact that no-one interesting followed is a non-barking dog.
The problem is the 2 bets are polar opposites, for Zach to top a poll Reform needs to fall apart, and I just can't see where the other 7% Reform would require comes from.
For the Greens to top a poll Reform have to go further backwards, but only so far that the Conservatives (who will be the only beneficiaries) don't go that far forwards, and at the same time Labour will have to absolutely implode to probably single figures and the LIb Dems will not pick up any of the transfers. The window for that to happen is also quite narrow for Starmer will be gone by the middle of the year. So I don't see 10/1 as generous.
A good bet for me would actually be for Starmer to survive the year as PM. It is incredibly difficult to remove a sitting Labour leader without at least his tacit consent, as we saw with Corbyn, and Starmer shows no eagerness to quit.
The only way he goes is if a heavyweight challenger launches a leadership challenge. There are not many of them outside the cabinet,* and I don't see any current cabinet minister breaking ranks. Angela Rayner would be the only really plausible challenger and given the circumstances under which she resigned I can't see her winning a leadership election.
Personally I would be looking at autumn 2027 as a more likely exit year, if he decides he's had enough and wants to give his successor flexibility over the timing of the next election. But I won't be betting on earlier.
*It is arguable as to how many there are inside the cabinet as well.
I tend to agree - there is no obvious left of centre candidate in Parliament, and the Labour Parliamentary Party isn't in the mood for imminent change. The flashpoint will be after the local elections, but with Reform weakening they may be more of a mixed bag that we've assumed.
Potentially the upward movement will be Greens. Ironically their name may be a barrier - lots of leftish Labour people aren't that interested in the environment and suspicious of Green NIMBYism. Nonetheless they only need to gain a few points to move into second place.
With YouGov showing the LibDems in fifth, isn't the Davey out bet the one to take?
No, the LDs are also likely to make gains in English counties and districts which have elections and the wealthiest parts of London from the Tories and Labour and rural Scotland and Edinburgh in the May elections from the Tories and SNP
I don't think the Lib Dems will do particularly well at the locals, but the Tories and Labour will also struggle vis a vis Reform. Labour will do badly in Wales and Scotland but will weather the storm. 2027 will be far more significant.
The LDs won't "do well" because the elections in their most promising areas have been cancelled.
The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai is the first Russian oil refinery to be hit by Ukrainian drones in 2026. Previously targeted in November and September of 2025, it has a capacity of 6.5 million tons and is the... 26th largest refinery in Russia with about 2% of total Russian capacity.
Also hit overnight was an oil terminal in Tartarstan that processes and stores crude oil from northern Russia oilfields. If the Ukrainians can damage that it might force some of the oil wells to shut down.
And once shut down, oil wells can take years to restart so Russia will not want to allow that.
Russia may not want =/= Russia can enforce.
This winter is going to be brutal for all concerned in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Ukrainians have endured 4 winters of it. Up to now, Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg have endured 0. The shock for metropolitan Russians will be severe.
Parts of Moscow and St.P spent last night without power, and at least four O&G facilities put on a free fireworks show.
My prediction for ‘26 is that ordinary metropolitan Russians finally start to feel that their country is at war.
Putin has previously told Russians that they are safe with him. That is the bargain - they give up certain freedoms in exchange for securtity and a strong economy. Ooops.
Oops indeed but we must always remember that for many Russians, the economy, the standard of living, was even worse within living memory. Putin still has brownie points for rescuing Russians from queueing for rotten meat in empty supermarkets.
With YouGov showing the LibDems in fifth, isn't the Davey out bet the one to take?
No, the LDs are also likely to make gains in English counties and districts which have elections and the wealthiest parts of London from the Tories and Labour and rural Scotland and Edinburgh in the May elections from the Tories and SNP
I don't think the Lib Dems will do particularly well at the locals, but the Tories and Labour will also struggle vis a vis Reform. Labour will do badly in Wales and Scotland but will weather the storm. 2027 will be far more significant.
The LDs won't "do well" because the elections in their most promising areas have been cancelled.
'People in China will pay a 13% sales tax on contraceptives from 1 January, while childcare services will be exempt, as the world's second-largest economy tries to boost birth rates.
An overhaul of the tax system announced late last year removes many exemptions that were in place since 1994, when China was still enforcing its decades-long one-child rule.
It also exempts marriage-related services and elderly care from value added tax (VAT) - part of a broader effort that includes extending parental leave and issuing cash handouts.
Faced with an ageing population and sluggish economy, Beijing has been trying hard to encourage more young Chinese people to marry, and couples to have children.' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czxpk7r8w9yo
With YouGov showing the LibDems in fifth, isn't the Davey out bet the one to take?
No, the LDs are also likely to make gains in English counties and districts which have elections and the wealthiest parts of London from the Tories and Labour and rural Scotland and Edinburgh in the May elections from the Tories and SNP
I don't think the Lib Dems will do particularly well at the locals, but the Tories and Labour will also struggle vis a vis Reform. Labour will do badly in Wales and Scotland but will weather the storm. 2027 will be far more significant.
The LDs won't "do well" because the elections in their most promising areas have been cancelled.
Has the relevant legislation on the local elections actually gone through yet?
It does appear that “Two-tier Keir cancels elections” could be the first massive scandal of ‘26, assuming that Nigel and Kemi are all over it.
His reasoning around re-organisation is pretty much irrelevant, short of war or pandemic it’s utterly undemocratic behaviour.
With YouGov showing the LibDems in fifth, isn't the Davey out bet the one to take?
No, the LDs are also likely to make gains in English counties and districts which have elections and the wealthiest parts of London from the Tories and Labour and rural Scotland and Edinburgh in the May elections from the Tories and SNP
I don't think the Lib Dems will do particularly well at the locals, but the Tories and Labour will also struggle vis a vis Reform. Labour will do badly in Wales and Scotland but will weather the storm. 2027 will be far more significant.
The LDs won't "do well" because the elections in their most promising areas have been cancelled.
No they haven't, indeed if anything the fact areas like Norfolk, Suffolk, Hampshire and Essex and Sussex have county elections this year that were postponed from last year gives the LDs more opportunities than they would have had in the largely urban, Scottish and Welsh elections this year
With YouGov showing the LibDems in fifth, isn't the Davey out bet the one to take?
No, the LDs are also likely to make gains in English counties and districts which have elections and the wealthiest parts of London from the Tories and Labour and rural Scotland and Edinburgh in the May elections from the Tories and SNP
I don't think the Lib Dems will do particularly well at the locals, but the Tories and Labour will also struggle vis a vis Reform. Labour will do badly in Wales and Scotland but will weather the storm. 2027 will be far more significant.
The LDs are making the second most gains in local council by elections after Reform.
Labour will lose first place in Wales but will do better in Scotland where the SNP vote is down more than the Labour vote since 2021
Mystic Dom says Kemi will go in the summer, Jenrick will replace her who will 'sink like a stone' then the party will fragment with One Nation types like Gauke, Grieve, Barwell etc joining the LDs or even Starmer Labour and most joining Reform and others leaving politics.
We will see, I suspect if Kemi does go Cleverly would be more likely to replace her this side of a general election
Mystic Dom says Kemi will go in the summer, Jenrick will replace her who will 'sink like a stone' then the party will fragment with One Nation types like Gauke, Grieve, Barwell etc joining the LDs or even Starmer Labour and most joining Reform and others leaving politics.
We will see, I suspect if Kemi does go Cleverly would be more likely to replace her this side of a general election
MPs probably prefer Cleverly. The electorate probably prefers Cleverly. But neither of them will be decisive. Unless Energetic Bob comes third with MPs, the membership will have the chance to make him leader.
Trusting them not to be so stupid and self-indulgent seems optimistic.
OT a short explanation of the Voler la Vedette betting scandal from 2011. Older PBers will recall Betfair voiding all bets when someone ran up a £23 million liability on the racehorse, Voler la Vedette, owing to an ill-conceived bot strategy tickling a bug in Betfair's own code.
Watching the old Battle of the Bulge film on ITV player so a rare exposure to ads - can someone tell me what Kompromat Red Bull’s ad agency have over the owners where they are still churning out those deeply unfunny adverts with cartoons about giving you wings? Must be some dark shit they’ve done.
I suspect the racism issue is going to be a problem for Reform. Either they need to stop pandering contrary to their SOP or enough people need to ignore who they really are.
I think they are also vulnerable on being utterly miserable gits. It would only take one cheerful right-winger to blow them away. Robert Jenrick isn't that cheerful right-winger however.
Having said that, our mad electoral system could see Reform on an overall majority on just one quarter of the vote.
I suspect the racism issue is going to be a problem for Reform. Either they need to stop pandering contrary to their SOP or enough people need to ignore who they really are.
I think they are also vulnerable on being utterly miserable gits. It would only take one cheerful right-winger to blow them away. Robert Jenrick isn't that cheerful right-winger however.
Having said that, our mad electoral system could see Reform on an overall majority on just one quarter of the vote.
Without tactical voting yes, with tactical anti Reform voting no
Mystic Dom says Kemi will go in the summer, Jenrick will replace her who will 'sink like a stone' then the party will fragment with One Nation types like Gauke, Grieve, Barwell etc joining the LDs or even Starmer Labour and most joining Reform and others leaving politics.
We will see, I suspect if Kemi does go Cleverly would be more likely to replace her this side of a general election
MPs probably prefer Cleverly. The electorate probably prefers Cleverly. But neither of them will be decisive. Unless Energetic Bob comes third with MPs, the membership will have the chance to make him leader.
Trusting them not to be so stupid and self-indulgent seems optimistic.
Depends. If Cleverly got 2/3 of MPs the 1922 cttee would probably say that would be enough for a coronation of him with no members vote.
Even if it went to the membership Cleverly beat Jenrick 54% to 36% in a post 2024 Tory conference Con Home Conservative members survey.
I suspect the racism issue is going to be a problem for Reform. Either they need to stop pandering contrary to their SOP or enough people need to ignore who they really are.
I think they are also vulnerable on being utterly miserable gits. It would only take one cheerful right-winger to blow them away. Robert Jenrick isn't that cheerful right-winger however.
Having said that, our mad electoral system could see Reform on an overall majority on just one quarter of the vote.
Optimism is a potent thing in politics. Blair has it, Boris had it. It's part of Polanski's appeal.
Optimism grounded in reality would be better; BoJo's problem in government was that his optimism was mostly waffle derived from never having to clean up the mess he made. But baby steps.
Proposals are at the considered by ministers stage so don't hold your breath.
The current levels are simply unaffordable and not always needed, but there would be massive outcry - this will not happen.
A better question might be to ask why they are unaffordable. Is it, perhaps, because our school system is not well set up to cope with those who do not fit into tidy little boxes?
Or because we start schooling very early - earlier than comparably run systems in Scandinavia - which means that we are forcing children to learn before they are fully ready?
Or the dogmatic insistence on date of birth for start of school?
Or the size of classes?
Or the emphasis on academic subjects (some of which are very badly planned out in terms of content and assessment) in the curriculum?
But nobody seems to be asking those questions. Largely I think because it raises too many awkward revelations about decades of mismanagement (not all of it well-intentioned) by the centre.
All good questions to address wider issues, though well intentioned but too loose 'requirements' which incentivises classification is a matter which if addresses could stem the financial bleeding to give breathing room to look at them.
But definitely not happening. Too many legitimate sob stories and would turbo charge all opposition.
I've worked within the SEND system.
Believe me, it is bloody difficult to get any support for a child. Even with wealthy parents who have high class barristers on tap. Councils just refuse.
There is a reason almost 98% of refusals are overturned on appeal. However, even then most councils won't implement the decision. In Staffordshire, for example, they refuse to provide 1:1 support even where they are ordered to. The only case I know of where that was reversed was where the child's father, who happened to be an equalities lead for a national organisation, took them to court and won.
We should not be asking about how to cut SEND costs. We should be asking instead how they are soaring so rapidly *even though councils are not actually doing what they should be* and therefore we *already* are failing to provide anything like adequate support.
Which means we come back to the system.
So what is Wales doing differently as their costs seem to be being managed and not exploding ?
Do you have figures for that, as it isn't my understanding of the situation?
In 2018 the Welsh rate of SEN was 22.6%. Upon the start of implementation cases immediately dropped 19.0%: from 19.5% in 2020/1 to 15.8% in 2021/2.
2025: the Welsh rate of ALN is just 9.5%.
(for context, the equivalent English figure in 19.6%; Scottish 40.5%)’
A very interesting thread. However, there is one rather important point I think you have missed. That's about the classification of educational needs, not costs. It hasn't cut costs. Quite the contrary, they are soaring even faster than in England.
Total expenditure on SEN/ALN provision in schools by local authorities is budgeted to be £668 million, an increase of £75.8 million or 12.8% compared with the previous year.
29% of the total budgeted SEN/ALN expenditure is delegated to special schools. Notional allocations within nursery, primary, middle and secondary schools account for a further 40% of the total. The remaining 31% is non-delegated money held centrally by local authorities.
Denbighshire delegate the largest proportion of their SEN/ALN budget to their schools at 84%, whilst Merthyr Tydfil delegate the smallest proportion at 49%.
Total SEN/ALN expenditure per pupil for Wales is budgeted to be £1,486. This consists of £1,028 delegated expenditure per pupil and £458 non-delegated expenditure per pupil.
Merthyr Tydfil has the largest SEN/ALN budget per pupil at £2,258, whilst Rhondda Cynon Taf has the smallest SEN/ALN budget per pupil at £1,086.
The charts for expenditure over time are also available. Since the date this new approach you highlight was brought in, the costs have just about doubled.
This may be due to legacy issues, of course, but you would not expect such a dramatic rise if the policy you outline was having a significant financial effect.
I have t missed anything. It is not my thread. I was asking about it.
As we discussed previously, I think much can be done on the supply side eg minibuses not individual taxis. I'd also put a real priority on what used to be called "Safe Routes to Schools", which was a typical UK good intervention but only a real priority for the length of a politician knee jerk. It is cheap and relatively easy to do, plus utilises paths we have in greater profusion in this country than almost anywhere. For the kids it builds health, exposes daily to fresh air and exercise, and encourages independence.
I have a relative with 2 kids identified as SEN. They fought for a "statement" (using the older language) for the first, but it took a long time and involved a number of meetings attended with specialist barrister reports at 4 figures a time, and it swallowed parenting time; the child ended up with 2-3 years in a specialist independent school. For the second one they just used the money and the time to get their own support in place. They are not poor - live just outside the London political boundary with a combined income of 160-170k, but it all stopped posh holidays for a number of years.
Nothing is certain, but I think there's a better chance than normal that the protests in Iran will topple the regime. Compared to the protests against the morality police these sound like they are more explicitly political - calling for the death of Khamenei and the return of the Shah.
A: It’s just like a normal one except your father opens all the doors for you
My favourite example is former Times editor William Rees-Mogg landing his Old Etonian son a job with the Hong Kong firm Lloyd George Management. Jacob R-M really did make his millions because, as the song has it, father knew Lloyd George (even if the grandson of the PM).
With YouGov showing the LibDems in fifth, isn't the Davey out bet the one to take?
No, the LDs are also likely to make gains in English counties and districts which have elections and the wealthiest parts of London from the Tories and Labour and rural Scotland and Edinburgh in the May elections from the Tories and SNP
I don't think the Lib Dems will do particularly well at the locals, but the Tories and Labour will also struggle vis a vis Reform. Labour will do badly in Wales and Scotland but will weather the storm. 2027 will be far more significant.
The LDs won't "do well" because the elections in their most promising areas have been cancelled.
No they haven't, indeed if anything the fact areas like Norfolk, Suffolk, Hampshire and Essex and Sussex have county elections this year that were postponed from last year gives the LDs more opportunities than they would have had in the largely urban, Scottish and Welsh elections this year
Sussex, Surrey, and Hampshire certainly offer the prospect of big Lib Dem gains. The Eastern counties will likely be won by Reform.
There’s nothing for them to win from the Conservatives in London, although Camden and Southwark could see gains from Labour.
Watching the old Battle of the Bulge film on ITV player so a rare exposure to ads - can someone tell me what Kompromat Red Bull’s ad agency have over the owners where they are still churning out those deeply unfunny adverts with cartoons about giving you wings? Must be some dark shit they’ve done.
How to say the energy drink gives you energy without saying it gives you energy, which would count as misleading advertising. And making sure the message is drummed into the heads of 18 year olds.
Given Red Bull is notably successful against other brands of sugared water, I wouldn't say they were necessarily wrong.
A: It’s just like a normal one except your father opens all the doors for you
My favourite example is former Times editor William Rees-Mogg landing his Old Etonian son a job with the Hong Kong firm Lloyd George Management. Jacob R-M really did make his millions because, as the song has it, father knew Lloyd George (even if the grandson of the PM).
Rees Mogg was already working for Rothschilds in investment management before he got that job
With YouGov showing the LibDems in fifth, isn't the Davey out bet the one to take?
That's only going to happen if he doesn't feel up to another GE campaign; the party won't push him out. So if there is a change, it won't be this year.
As the lead says, Laddies produces the list of one-sided unlikelihoods in order to dupe the unwary; if I was forced to choose bets from that list, I'd be looking at the Reeves/Cooper/Mahmood to last out the year, three Tory MPs defect to Reform, and Jenrick to defect, ones. On the latter, the assumption would be that Kemi looks increasingly secure as the year goes by, yet the Tories have another bad set of elections.
0 MPs to defect to Reform looks like the better choice to me. There have been fewer defections so far than many expected.
With YouGov showing the LibDems in fifth, isn't the Davey out bet the one to take?
No, the LDs are also likely to make gains in English counties and districts which have elections and the wealthiest parts of London from the Tories and Labour and rural Scotland and Edinburgh in the May elections from the Tories and SNP
I don't think the Lib Dems will do particularly well at the locals, but the Tories and Labour will also struggle vis a vis Reform. Labour will do badly in Wales and Scotland but will weather the storm. 2027 will be far more significant.
The LDs won't "do well" because the elections in their most promising areas have been cancelled.
No they haven't, indeed if anything the fact areas like Norfolk, Suffolk, Hampshire and Essex and Sussex have county elections this year that were postponed from last year gives the LDs more opportunities than they would have had in the largely urban, Scottish and Welsh elections this year
With YouGov showing the LibDems in fifth, isn't the Davey out bet the one to take?
No, the LDs are also likely to make gains in English counties and districts which have elections and the wealthiest parts of London from the Tories and Labour and rural Scotland and Edinburgh in the May elections from the Tories and SNP
I don't think the Lib Dems will do particularly well at the locals, but the Tories and Labour will also struggle vis a vis Reform. Labour will do badly in Wales and Scotland but will weather the storm. 2027 will be far more significant.
The LDs won't "do well" because the elections in their most promising areas have been cancelled.
No they haven't, indeed if anything the fact areas like Norfolk, Suffolk, Hampshire and Essex and Sussex have county elections this year that were postponed from last year gives the LDs more opportunities than they would have had in the largely urban, Scottish and Welsh elections this year
Sussex, Surrey, and Hampshire certainly offer the prospect of big Lib Dem gains. The Eastern counties will likely be won by Reform.
There’s nothing for them to win from the Conservatives in London, although Camden and Southwark could see gains from Labour.
Those 3 counties certainly but even in Eastern counties areas like Chelmsford and North Norfolk have LD MPs now.
The Conservatives still have 3 councillors in LD controlled Kingston upon Thames, 1 in Richmond upon Thames and 20 in Sutton the LDs will target.
In Camden and Southwark the LDs will target the poshest bits, they won Hampstead Town from Labour in a by election in July 2022 for example and were close behind Labour in Dulwich village and London Bridge and West Bermondsey and South Bermondsey in May 2022. The rest will be mainly Green v Labour battles.
Even in Kensington and Chelsea, in 2022 the LDs were second to the Tories in seats like Courtfield and Pembridge and Queen's Gate and Redcliffe and Royal Hospital and won most seats in Earl's Court and will hope to gain a few Tory seats in the royal borough with Reform taking Tory votes.
The LDs would also have hopes of taking Marylebone ward on Westminster City Council where they were also second to the Tories in the last London local elections
The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai is the first Russian oil refinery to be hit by Ukrainian drones in 2026. Previously targeted in November and September of 2025, it has a capacity of 6.5 million tons and is the... 26th largest refinery in Russia with about 2% of total Russian capacity.
Also hit overnight was an oil terminal in Tartarstan that processes and stores crude oil from northern Russia oilfields. If the Ukrainians can damage that it might force some of the oil wells to shut down.
And once shut down, oil wells can take years to restart so Russia will not want to allow that.
Russia may not want =/= Russia can enforce.
This winter is going to be brutal for all concerned in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Ukrainians have endured 4 winters of it. Up to now, Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg have endured 0. The shock for metropolitan Russians will be severe.
Parts of Moscow and St.P spent last night without power, and at least four O&G facilities put on a free fireworks show.
My prediction for ‘26 is that ordinary metropolitan Russians finally start to feel that their country is at war.
My prediction for 2026 is that we'll be inundated with anniversaries: 10 years since Brexit; 100 years since the Great Depression; and that's just the big ones. 50 years since the long, hot summer of 76; 60 years since England won the World Cup (since renamed the Men's World Cup; no doubt soon to be renamed the Trump World Cup).
Aren't these tips contradictory? There is a good chance neither wins and it's almost certain that at least one doesn't win.
For the Greens to lead in a poll, I reckon they need to get to at least 22% to have any chance (their best so far is 19%) and even that might only get them a tie. The equation is basically Reform plus Conservative divided by two. That's been as low as 21% in one YouGov back in July, but generally it doesn't go below 22%. And, of course, it needs the split to be 50:50.
Aren't these tips contradictory? There is a good chance neither wins and it's almost certain that at least one doesn't win.
For the Greens to lead in a poll, I reckon they need to get to at least 22% to have any chance (their best so far is 19%) and even that might only get them a tie. The equation is basically Reform plus Conservative divided by two. That's been as low as 21% in one YouGov back in July, but generally it doesn't go below 22%. And, of course, it needs the split to be 50:50.
I think I'd want more like 33/1 to be tempted.
The thing that stands out in that graph is how stable the RefCon vote is. And, by subtraction, how flat the LLG total has been.
With YouGov showing the LibDems in fifth, isn't the Davey out bet the one to take?
No, the LDs are also likely to make gains in English counties and districts which have elections and the wealthiest parts of London from the Tories and Labour and rural Scotland and Edinburgh in the May elections from the Tories and SNP
I don't think the Lib Dems will do particularly well at the locals, but the Tories and Labour will also struggle vis a vis Reform. Labour will do badly in Wales and Scotland but will weather the storm. 2027 will be far more significant.
The LDs won't "do well" because the elections in their most promising areas have been cancelled.
No they haven't, indeed if anything the fact areas like Norfolk, Suffolk, Hampshire and Essex and Sussex have county elections this year that were postponed from last year gives the LDs more opportunities than they would have had in the largely urban, Scottish and Welsh elections this year
And also east and west Surrey.
Yes Surrey looks likely to have its unitary wards ready for their first elections in May. Surrey is also increasingly a LD heartland council, in many areas as yellow as it was once blue
A: It’s just like a normal one except your father opens all the doors for you
My favourite example is former Times editor William Rees-Mogg landing his Old Etonian son a job with the Hong Kong firm Lloyd George Management. Jacob R-M really did make his millions because, as the song has it, father knew Lloyd George (even if the grandson of the PM).
Rees Mogg was already working for Rothschilds in investment management before he got that job
Which spoils the joke but not the suggestion of parental assistance:-
What undoubtedly helped his chances was the fact that his father, William, was a long-standing friend of the firm’s founder, Lord Rothschild, having known him since the early 1970s. That William had himself been on the board of J. Rothschild Investment Management since 1987 cannot have done any harm to his son’s prospects either. Furthermore, William was on very good terms with Nils Taube, Lord Rothschild’s principal fund manager and the man who first taught Jacob Rees-Mogg how to manage money. Ashcroft, Michael. Jacob's Ladder: The Unauthorised Biography of Jacob Rees-Mogg . Biteback Publishing. Kindle Edition.
Aren't these tips contradictory? There is a good chance neither wins and it's almost certain that at least one doesn't win.
For the Greens to lead in a poll, I reckon they need to get to at least 22% to have any chance (their best so far is 19%) and even that might only get them a tie. The equation is basically Reform plus Conservative divided by two. That's been as low as 21% in one YouGov back in July, but generally it doesn't go below 22%. And, of course, it needs the split to be 50:50.
I think I'd want more like 33/1 to be tempted.
What software did you use to produce that graph please?
Aren't these tips contradictory? There is a good chance neither wins and it's almost certain that at least one doesn't win.
For the Greens to lead in a poll, I reckon they need to get to at least 22% to have any chance (their best so far is 19%) and even that might only get them a tie. The equation is basically Reform plus Conservative divided by two. That's been as low as 21% in one YouGov back in July, but generally it doesn't go below 22%. And, of course, it needs the split to be 50:50.
I think I'd want more like 33/1 to be tempted.
The thing that stands out in that graph is how stable the RefCon vote is. And, by subtraction, how flat the LLG total has been.
Yes, the Fukkers and tories are both fishing in the same rank pond and Jenners would be better at it.
With YouGov showing the LibDems in fifth, isn't the Davey out bet the one to take?
No, the LDs are also likely to make gains in English counties and districts which have elections and the wealthiest parts of London from the Tories and Labour and rural Scotland and Edinburgh in the May elections from the Tories and SNP
I don't think the Lib Dems will do particularly well at the locals, but the Tories and Labour will also struggle vis a vis Reform. Labour will do badly in Wales and Scotland but will weather the storm. 2027 will be far more significant.
The LDs won't "do well" because the elections in their most promising areas have been cancelled.
No they haven't, indeed if anything the fact areas like Norfolk, Suffolk, Hampshire and Essex and Sussex have county elections this year that were postponed from last year gives the LDs more opportunities than they would have had in the largely urban, Scottish and Welsh elections this year
Sussex, Surrey, and Hampshire certainly offer the prospect of big Lib Dem gains. The Eastern counties will likely be won by Reform.
There’s nothing for them to win from the Conservatives in London, although Camden and Southwark could see gains from Labour.
Those 3 counties certainly but even in Eastern counties areas like Chelmsford and North Norfolk have LD MPs now.
The Conservatives still have 3 councillors in LD controlled Kingston upon Thames, 1 in Richmond upon Thames and 20 in Sutton the LDs will target.
In Camden and Southwark the LDs will target the poshest bits, they won Hampstead Town from Labour in a by election in July 2022 for example and were close behind Labour in Dulwich village and London Bridge and West Bermondsey and South Bermondsey in May 2022. The rest will be mainly Green v Labour battles.
Even in Kensington and Chelsea, in 2022 the LDs were second to the Tories in seats like Courtfield and Pembridge and Queen's Gate and Redcliffe and Royal Hospital and won most seats in Earl's Court and will hope to gain a few Tory seats in the royal borough with Reform taking Tory votes.
The LDs would also have hopes of taking Marylebone ward on Westminster City Council where they were also second to the Tories in the last London local elections
Merton may also see some LD targets, from the Tories in Cannon Hill and Hillside wards where the LDs hold some but not all the councillors and Village where they were second to the Tories. They would also want to pick up a seat from Labour in Wandle and Abbey wards where they hold the other councillors.
In Haringey the LDs would hope the pick up 1 Alexandra Park and Fortis Green and Muswell Hill seat from Labour where they also hold the other seats and they hold 1/3 out of 3 seats in Crouch End so they would also hope for gains from Labour there. Stroud Green ward could also be a LD gain from Labour on a very good night https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Haringey_London_Borough_Council_election
In Lambeth too the LDs would hope to make a gain from Labour in Clapham Common where they hold 1 councillor and they were close behind Labour in Waterloo and South Bank as well
With YouGov showing the LibDems in fifth, isn't the Davey out bet the one to take?
No, the LDs are also likely to make gains in English counties and districts which have elections and the wealthiest parts of London from the Tories and Labour and rural Scotland and Edinburgh in the May elections from the Tories and SNP
I don't think the Lib Dems will do particularly well at the locals, but the Tories and Labour will also struggle vis a vis Reform. Labour will do badly in Wales and Scotland but will weather the storm. 2027 will be far more significant.
The LDs won't "do well" because the elections in their most promising areas have been cancelled.
No they haven't, indeed if anything the fact areas like Norfolk, Suffolk, Hampshire and Essex and Sussex have county elections this year that were postponed from last year gives the LDs more opportunities than they would have had in the largely urban, Scottish and Welsh elections this year
And also east and west Surrey.
Yes Surrey looks likely to have its unitary wards ready for their first elections in May. Surrey is also increasingly a LD heartland council, in many areas as yellow as it was once blue
Yes, for the new Surrey Councils, the Wards will be identical to the County Divisions (slightly altered after the Boundary review a couple of years ago), but will have two members rather than one. I think West Surrey will have around 75 members and East 80 or so. If recent by-elections results are repeated in May, the LDs will have strong, perhaps commanding, majorities in both.
The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai is the first Russian oil refinery to be hit by Ukrainian drones in 2026. Previously targeted in November and September of 2025, it has a capacity of 6.5 million tons and is the... 26th largest refinery in Russia with about 2% of total Russian capacity.
Also hit overnight was an oil terminal in Tartarstan that processes and stores crude oil from northern Russia oilfields. If the Ukrainians can damage that it might force some of the oil wells to shut down.
And once shut down, oil wells can take years to restart so Russia will not want to allow that.
Russia may not want =/= Russia can enforce.
This winter is going to be brutal for all concerned in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Ukrainians have endured 4 winters of it. Up to now, Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg have endured 0. The shock for metropolitan Russians will be severe.
Parts of Moscow and St.P spent last night without power, and at least four O&G facilities put on a free fireworks show.
My prediction for ‘26 is that ordinary metropolitan Russians finally start to feel that their country is at war.
My prediction for 2026 is that we'll be inundated with anniversaries: 10 years since Brexit; 100 years since the Great Depression; and that's just the big ones. 50 years since the long, hot summer of 76; 60 years since England won the World Cup (since renamed the Men's World Cup; no doubt soon to be renamed the Trump World Cup).
250 years of the US.
Yes. I really should have looked things up before making that post. Still, I guess these blatant errors and omissions shows it was all my own work rather than a proper list I'd pinched off someone else – not like that Telegraph columnist who copies and pastes from Leon's pb posts.
Aren't these tips contradictory? There is a good chance neither wins and it's almost certain that at least one doesn't win.
For the Greens to lead in a poll, I reckon they need to get to at least 22% to have any chance (their best so far is 19%) and even that might only get them a tie. The equation is basically Reform plus Conservative divided by two. That's been as low as 21% in one YouGov back in July, but generally it doesn't go below 22%. And, of course, it needs the split to be 50:50.
I think I'd want more like 33/1 to be tempted.
What software did you use to produce that graph please?
I've got a big slow-cooker chilli on the go to see me through the next few cold days. Lots of chorizo in it which is making the kitchen smell comforting already.
I'm trying to think of ones that are potentially on their way for recalls, illnesses and the like and none spring to my mind. I'm not convinced the make way for Andy Burnham will manifest either.
We were one punch away from no by-elections last year.
Between 79 and 25 we averaged about four by elections a year.
If the number of by-elections in a year follows a Poisson distribution (like goals in a football match) the probability of zero with mean of four ( average over the last 46 years) is 0.02 i.e. 50/1 against. So 16/1 against is not an attractive bet.
With YouGov showing the LibDems in fifth, isn't the Davey out bet the one to take?
No, the LDs are also likely to make gains in English counties and districts which have elections and the wealthiest parts of London from the Tories and Labour and rural Scotland and Edinburgh in the May elections from the Tories and SNP
I don't think the Lib Dems will do particularly well at the locals, but the Tories and Labour will also struggle vis a vis Reform. Labour will do badly in Wales and Scotland but will weather the storm. 2027 will be far more significant.
The LDs won't "do well" because the elections in their most promising areas have been cancelled.
No they haven't, indeed if anything the fact areas like Norfolk, Suffolk, Hampshire and Essex and Sussex have county elections this year that were postponed from last year gives the LDs more opportunities than they would have had in the largely urban, Scottish and Welsh elections this year
Sussex, Surrey, and Hampshire certainly offer the prospect of big Lib Dem gains. The Eastern counties will likely be won by Reform.
There’s nothing for them to win from the Conservatives in London, although Camden and Southwark could see gains from Labour.
Those 3 counties certainly but even in Eastern counties areas like Chelmsford and North Norfolk have LD MPs now.
The Conservatives still have 3 councillors in LD controlled Kingston upon Thames, 1 in Richmond upon Thames and 20 in Sutton the LDs will target.
In Camden and Southwark the LDs will target the poshest bits, they won Hampstead Town from Labour in a by election in July 2022 for example and were close behind Labour in Dulwich village and London Bridge and West Bermondsey and South Bermondsey in May 2022. The rest will be mainly Green v Labour battles.
Even in Kensington and Chelsea, in 2022 the LDs were second to the Tories in seats like Courtfield and Pembridge and Queen's Gate and Redcliffe and Royal Hospital and won most seats in Earl's Court and will hope to gain a few Tory seats in the royal borough with Reform taking Tory votes.
The LDs would also have hopes of taking Marylebone ward on Westminster City Council where they were also second to the Tories in the last London local elections
Merton may also see some LD targets, from the Tories in Cannon Hill and Hillside wards where the LDs hold some but not all the councillors and Village where they were second to the Tories. They would also want to pick up a seat from Labour in Wandle and Abbey wards where they hold the other councillors.
In Haringey the LDs would hope the pick up 1 Alexandra Park and Fortis Green and Muswell Hill seat from Labour where they also hold the other seats and they hold 1/3 out of 3 seats in Crouch End so they would also hope for gains from Labour there. Stroud Green ward could also be a LD gain from Labour on a very good night https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Haringey_London_Borough_Council_election
In Lambeth too the LDs would hope to make a gain from Labour in Clapham Common where they hold 1 councillor and they were close behind Labour in Waterloo and South Bank as well
In Ealing, the Labour councillor in Ealing Common is a target in a majority LD held ward and the LDs would want to take the 2 Tory seats in Hanger Hill where they hold 1 councillor too.
Reform have been quietly eroding for some time. Their support is to a very large extent driven by migration so, if the boats are ameliorated (a big if), then in conjunction with legal migration coming down I wonder if they could be down at 20-21% by year end.
I still haven't seen anything to suggest they're on course to win the next election.
A: It’s just like a normal one except your father opens all the doors for you
My favourite example is former Times editor William Rees-Mogg landing his Old Etonian son a job with the Hong Kong firm Lloyd George Management. Jacob R-M really did make his millions because, as the song has it, father knew Lloyd George (even if the grandson of the PM).
Rees Mogg was already working for Rothschilds in investment management before he got that job
Which spoils the joke but not the suggestion of parental assistance:-
What undoubtedly helped his chances was the fact that his father, William, was a long-standing friend of the firm’s founder, Lord Rothschild, having known him since the early 1970s. That William had himself been on the board of J. Rothschild Investment Management since 1987 cannot have done any harm to his son’s prospects either. Furthermore, William was on very good terms with Nils Taube, Lord Rothschild’s principal fund manager and the man who first taught Jacob Rees-Mogg how to manage money. Ashcroft, Michael. Jacob's Ladder: The Unauthorised Biography of Jacob Rees-Mogg . Biteback Publishing. Kindle Edition.
Rees Mogg had an Eton and Oxford education with a perfectly respectable degree, so he was standard of the intake who would have been working there anyway
With YouGov showing the LibDems in fifth, isn't the Davey out bet the one to take?
No, the LDs are also likely to make gains in English counties and districts which have elections and the wealthiest parts of London from the Tories and Labour and rural Scotland and Edinburgh in the May elections from the Tories and SNP
I don't think the Lib Dems will do particularly well at the locals, but the Tories and Labour will also struggle vis a vis Reform. Labour will do badly in Wales and Scotland but will weather the storm. 2027 will be far more significant.
The LDs won't "do well" because the elections in their most promising areas have been cancelled.
No they haven't, indeed if anything the fact areas like Norfolk, Suffolk, Hampshire and Essex and Sussex have county elections this year that were postponed from last year gives the LDs more opportunities than they would have had in the largely urban, Scottish and Welsh elections this year
Sussex, Surrey, and Hampshire certainly offer the prospect of big Lib Dem gains. The Eastern counties will likely be won by Reform.
There’s nothing for them to win from the Conservatives in London, although Camden and Southwark could see gains from Labour.
I don't want the Lib Dems carving up my county. Yuk.
Aren't these tips contradictory? There is a good chance neither wins and it's almost certain that at least one doesn't win.
For the Greens to lead in a poll, I reckon they need to get to at least 22% to have any chance (their best so far is 19%) and even that might only get them a tie. The equation is basically Reform plus Conservative divided by two. That's been as low as 21% in one YouGov back in July, but generally it doesn't go below 22%. And, of course, it needs the split to be 50:50.
I think I'd want more like 33/1 to be tempted.
The thing that stands out in that graph is how stable the RefCon vote is. And, by subtraction, how flat the LLG total has been.
Yes, the Fukkers and tories are both fishing in the same rank pond and Jenners would be better at it.
Yes an Ipsos poll in the summer found Jenrick polled best with 2024 Reform voters of potential Tory replacements for Kemi, even ahead of Boris with Farage voters.
Yet then again Cleverly polled second best with 2024 Tory voters who stayed loyal to Rishi, ahead of Jenrick and just behind Boris (who is not an MP and ineligible now anyway).
On the basis that at the next general election the Tories best bet is to shore up their 2024 core vote of 24% then Cleverly would be the best choice if Kemi went.
Jenrick is unlikely to win back those who voted for Reform even in 2024 as long as Farage leads Reform, he would be populist nationalist Pepsi to Farage's populist nationalist coke and Reform voters likely will prefer the real thing!
With YouGov showing the LibDems in fifth, isn't the Davey out bet the one to take?
That's only going to happen if he doesn't feel up to another GE campaign; the party won't push him out. So if there is a change, it won't be this year.
As the lead says, Laddies produces the list of one-sided unlikelihoods in order to dupe the unwary; if I was forced to choose bets from that list, I'd be looking at the Reeves/Cooper/Mahmood to last out the year, three Tory MPs defect to Reform, and Jenrick to defect, ones. On the latter, the assumption would be that Kemi looks increasingly secure as the year goes by, yet the Tories have another bad set of elections.
0 MPs to defect to Reform looks like the better choice to me. There have been fewer defections so far than many expected.
I agree.
I'm not sure 3/1 is enough to tempt me but that's the bet that is making me stroke my chin the most.
Reform have been quietly eroding for some time. Their support is to a very large extent driven by migration so, if the boats are ameliorated (a big if), then in conjunction with legal migration coming down I wonder if they could be down at 20-21% by year end.
I still haven't seen anything to suggest they're on course to win the next election.
This is my EMA of polls including the latest Find Out Now of 24th December. It shows Reform losing share to a reviving Tory party, and Greens continuing to take share from Labour.
The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai is the first Russian oil refinery to be hit by Ukrainian drones in 2026. Previously targeted in November and September of 2025, it has a capacity of 6.5 million tons and is the... 26th largest refinery in Russia with about 2% of total Russian capacity.
Also hit overnight was an oil terminal in Tartarstan that processes and stores crude oil from northern Russia oilfields. If the Ukrainians can damage that it might force some of the oil wells to shut down.
And once shut down, oil wells can take years to restart so Russia will not want to allow that.
Russia may not want =/= Russia can enforce.
This winter is going to be brutal for all concerned in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Ukrainians have endured 4 winters of it. Up to now, Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg have endured 0. The shock for metropolitan Russians will be severe.
Parts of Moscow and St.P spent last night without power, and at least four O&G facilities put on a free fireworks show.
My prediction for ‘26 is that ordinary metropolitan Russians finally start to feel that their country is at war.
My prediction for 2026 is that we'll be inundated with anniversaries: 10 years since Brexit; 100 years since the Great Depression; and that's just the big ones. 50 years since the long, hot summer of 76; 60 years since England won the World Cup (since renamed the Men's World Cup; no doubt soon to be renamed the Trump World Cup).
Aren't these tips contradictory? There is a good chance neither wins and it's almost certain that at least one doesn't win.
For the Greens to lead in a poll, I reckon they need to get to at least 22% to have any chance (their best so far is 19%) and even that might only get them a tie. The equation is basically Reform plus Conservative divided by two. That's been as low as 21% in one YouGov back in July, but generally it doesn't go below 22%. And, of course, it needs the split to be 50:50.
I think I'd want more like 33/1 to be tempted.
What software did you use to produce that graph please?
Reform have been quietly eroding for some time. Their support is to a very large extent driven by migration so, if the boats are ameliorated (a big if), then in conjunction with legal migration coming down I wonder if they could be down at 20-21% by year end.
I still haven't seen anything to suggest they're on course to win the next election.
Reform will likely get a big boost from May’s elections, with hundreds of gains.
I've got a big slow-cooker chilli on the go to see me through the next few cold days. Lots of chorizo in it which is making the kitchen smell comforting already.
has to be steak pie on 1st January
Butcher pie with puff pastry.
(Actually we're having chicken stew for logistical reasons. The butcher pie (chicken and ham) was a few days back.)
Watching the old Battle of the Bulge film on ITV player so a rare exposure to ads - can someone tell me what Kompromat Red Bull’s ad agency have over the owners where they are still churning out those deeply unfunny adverts with cartoons about giving you wings? Must be some dark shit they’ve done.
Nothing like the psychological dominance of a **** in the **** arriving somewhere in the Ardennes, mind.
Reform have been quietly eroding for some time. Their support is to a very large extent driven by migration so, if the boats are ameliorated (a big if), then in conjunction with legal migration coming down I wonder if they could be down at 20-21% by year end.
I still haven't seen anything to suggest they're on course to win the next election.
Reform will likely get a big boost from May’s elections, with hundreds of gains.
So by 2027 even more areas will discover that like in Kent and Durham, Reform can talk the talk but can’t deliver what they promised
I've got a big slow-cooker chilli on the go to see me through the next few cold days. Lots of chorizo in it which is making the kitchen smell comforting already.
has to be steak pie on 1st January
Butcher pie with puff pastry.
(Actually we're having chicken stew for logistical reasons. The butcher pie (chicken and ham) was a few days back.)
Reform have been quietly eroding for some time. Their support is to a very large extent driven by migration so, if the boats are ameliorated (a big if), then in conjunction with legal migration coming down I wonder if they could be down at 20-21% by year end.
I still haven't seen anything to suggest they're on course to win the next election.
Reform will likely get a big boost from May’s elections, with hundreds of gains.
As I said earlier though the Greens will likely get the biggest boost relative to their poll rating, as most of the seats up are in urban and inner city councils in London, Newcastle, Manchester etc. In Scotland the Greens will also likely make gains.
Reform will do well in Wales and make a few gains in the outer London suburbs bordering Essex and Kent and the handful of county council elections postponed from last year in counties like Essex and Norfolk but most of the English counties where Reform poll best held their county council elections last year and have no district or county council elections in 2026.
The biggest unitary council elections will be in the new East and West Surrey councils where the LDs will be the biggest gainers not Reform.
Reform have been quietly eroding for some time. Their support is to a very large extent driven by migration so, if the boats are ameliorated (a big if), then in conjunction with legal migration coming down I wonder if they could be down at 20-21% by year end.
I still haven't seen anything to suggest they're on course to win the next election.
Reform will likely get a big boost from May’s elections, with hundreds of gains.
They will get hundreds of gains in May. I'm yet to be convinced this will translate into a big boost nationally.
With YouGov showing the LibDems in fifth, isn't the Davey out bet the one to take?
No, the LDs are also likely to make gains in English counties and districts which have elections and the wealthiest parts of London from the Tories and Labour and rural Scotland and Edinburgh in the May elections from the Tories and SNP
I don't think the Lib Dems will do particularly well at the locals, but the Tories and Labour will also struggle vis a vis Reform. Labour will do badly in Wales and Scotland but will weather the storm. 2027 will be far more significant.
The LDs won't "do well" because the elections in their most promising areas have been cancelled.
No they haven't, indeed if anything the fact areas like Norfolk, Suffolk, Hampshire and Essex and Sussex have county elections this year that were postponed from last year gives the LDs more opportunities than they would have had in the largely urban, Scottish and Welsh elections this year
Sussex, Surrey, and Hampshire certainly offer the prospect of big Lib Dem gains. The Eastern counties will likely be won by Reform.
There’s nothing for them to win from the Conservatives in London, although Camden and Southwark could see gains from Labour.
Those 3 counties certainly but even in Eastern counties areas like Chelmsford and North Norfolk have LD MPs now.
The Conservatives still have 3 councillors in LD controlled Kingston upon Thames, 1 in Richmond upon Thames and 20 in Sutton the LDs will target.
In Camden and Southwark the LDs will target the poshest bits, they won Hampstead Town from Labour in a by election in July 2022 for example and were close behind Labour in Dulwich village and London Bridge and West Bermondsey and South Bermondsey in May 2022. The rest will be mainly Green v Labour battles.
Even in Kensington and Chelsea, in 2022 the LDs were second to the Tories in seats like Courtfield and Pembridge and Queen's Gate and Redcliffe and Royal Hospital and won most seats in Earl's Court and will hope to gain a few Tory seats in the royal borough with Reform taking Tory votes.
The LDs would also have hopes of taking Marylebone ward on Westminster City Council where they were also second to the Tories in the last London local elections
Merton may also see some LD targets, from the Tories in Cannon Hill and Hillside wards where the LDs hold some but not all the councillors and Village where they were second to the Tories. They would also want to pick up a seat from Labour in Wandle and Abbey wards where they hold the other councillors.
In Haringey the LDs would hope the pick up 1 Alexandra Park and Fortis Green and Muswell Hill seat from Labour where they also hold the other seats and they hold 1/3 out of 3 seats in Crouch End so they would also hope for gains from Labour there. Stroud Green ward could also be a LD gain from Labour on a very good night https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Haringey_London_Borough_Council_election
In Lambeth too the LDs would hope to make a gain from Labour in Clapham Common where they hold 1 councillor and they were close behind Labour in Waterloo and South Bank as well
In Ealing, the Labour councillor in Ealing Common is a target in a majority LD held ward and the LDs would want to take the 2 Tory seats in Hanger Hill where they hold 1 councillor too.
The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai is the first Russian oil refinery to be hit by Ukrainian drones in 2026. Previously targeted in November and September of 2025, it has a capacity of 6.5 million tons and is the... 26th largest refinery in Russia with about 2% of total Russian capacity.
Also hit overnight was an oil terminal in Tartarstan that processes and stores crude oil from northern Russia oilfields. If the Ukrainians can damage that it might force some of the oil wells to shut down.
And once shut down, oil wells can take years to restart so Russia will not want to allow that.
Russia may not want =/= Russia can enforce.
This winter is going to be brutal for all concerned in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Ukrainians have endured 4 winters of it. Up to now, Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg have endured 0. The shock for metropolitan Russians will be severe.
Parts of Moscow and St.P spent last night without power, and at least four O&G facilities put on a free fireworks show.
My prediction for ‘26 is that ordinary metropolitan Russians finally start to feel that their country is at war.
My prediction for 2026 is that we'll be inundated with anniversaries: 10 years since Brexit; 100 years since the Great Depression; and that's just the big ones. 50 years since the long, hot summer of 76; 60 years since England won the World Cup (since renamed the Men's World Cup; no doubt soon to be renamed the Trump World Cup).
250 years of the US.
1783?
Yes, strictly speaking that's when the USA became a legal entity, not 1776.
Reform have been quietly eroding for some time. Their support is to a very large extent driven by migration so, if the boats are ameliorated (a big if), then in conjunction with legal migration coming down I wonder if they could be down at 20-21% by year end.
I still haven't seen anything to suggest they're on course to win the next election.
Reform will likely get a big boost from May’s elections, with hundreds of gains.
They will get hundreds of gains in May. I'm yet to be convinced this will translate into a big boost nationally.
I suspect it may concentrate minds. So far, the idea that Reform are a potential government, as opposed to the NOTA option, hasn't really bedded in beyond the politically minded. What the results of that realisation may be I'm not entirely sure yet.
'The Green party leader, Zack Polanski, has said he would refuse to work with Keir Starmer but could work with Andy Burnham, Starmer’s potential rival for the Labour leadership, to keep Reform out of power.
Reform have been quietly eroding for some time. Their support is to a very large extent driven by migration so, if the boats are ameliorated (a big if), then in conjunction with legal migration coming down I wonder if they could be down at 20-21% by year end.
I still haven't seen anything to suggest they're on course to win the next election.
I'd agree with that. And I'd add that, as well as small boats, Reform's polling benefits when asylum hotels and their residents feature in the news, particularly when there's crime involved. There's not been so much of that in recent months in the news, and I don't think it's a coincidence that Reform's support has eroded a bit.
With YouGov showing the LibDems in fifth, isn't the Davey out bet the one to take?
No, the LDs are also likely to make gains in English counties and districts which have elections and the wealthiest parts of London from the Tories and Labour and rural Scotland and Edinburgh in the May elections from the Tories and SNP
I don't think the Lib Dems will do particularly well at the locals, but the Tories and Labour will also struggle vis a vis Reform. Labour will do badly in Wales and Scotland but will weather the storm. 2027 will be far more significant.
The LDs won't "do well" because the elections in their most promising areas have been cancelled.
No they haven't, indeed if anything the fact areas like Norfolk, Suffolk, Hampshire and Essex and Sussex have county elections this year that were postponed from last year gives the LDs more opportunities than they would have had in the largely urban, Scottish and Welsh elections this year
Sussex, Surrey, and Hampshire certainly offer the prospect of big Lib Dem gains. The Eastern counties will likely be won by Reform.
There’s nothing for them to win from the Conservatives in London, although Camden and Southwark could see gains from Labour.
Those 3 counties certainly but even in Eastern counties areas like Chelmsford and North Norfolk have LD MPs now.
The Conservatives still have 3 councillors in LD controlled Kingston upon Thames, 1 in Richmond upon Thames and 20 in Sutton the LDs will target.
In Camden and Southwark the LDs will target the poshest bits, they won Hampstead Town from Labour in a by election in July 2022 for example and were close behind Labour in Dulwich village and London Bridge and West Bermondsey and South Bermondsey in May 2022. The rest will be mainly Green v Labour battles.
Even in Kensington and Chelsea, in 2022 the LDs were second to the Tories in seats like Courtfield and Pembridge and Queen's Gate and Redcliffe and Royal Hospital and won most seats in Earl's Court and will hope to gain a few Tory seats in the royal borough with Reform taking Tory votes.
The LDs would also have hopes of taking Marylebone ward on Westminster City Council where they were also second to the Tories in the last London local elections
Merton may also see some LD targets, from the Tories in Cannon Hill and Hillside wards where the LDs hold some but not all the councillors and Village where they were second to the Tories. They would also want to pick up a seat from Labour in Wandle and Abbey wards where they hold the other councillors.
In Haringey the LDs would hope the pick up 1 Alexandra Park and Fortis Green and Muswell Hill seat from Labour where they also hold the other seats and they hold 1/3 out of 3 seats in Crouch End so they would also hope for gains from Labour there. Stroud Green ward could also be a LD gain from Labour on a very good night https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Haringey_London_Borough_Council_election
In Lambeth too the LDs would hope to make a gain from Labour in Clapham Common where they hold 1 councillor and they were close behind Labour in Waterloo and South Bank as well
In Ealing, the Labour councillor in Ealing Common is a target in a majority LD held ward and the LDs would want to take the 2 Tory seats in Hanger Hill where they hold 1 councillor too.
Re your other post referring to LD gains in East and West Surrey. I agree they will make big gains. On the ground it is very much looking like that. Reform will also make a few gains in the more urban bit. I think the Tories are in for a slaughter. Whether this will be recorded in the media much I don't know as they may not be considered gains being new councils and although I think the LDs will do very well they will be outperformed nationally by Reform (who will be the main news item) and the Greens will get a decent showing as well.
Reform have been quietly eroding for some time. Their support is to a very large extent driven by migration so, if the boats are ameliorated (a big if), then in conjunction with legal migration coming down I wonder if they could be down at 20-21% by year end.
I still haven't seen anything to suggest they're on course to win the next election.
Reform will likely get a big boost from May’s elections, with hundreds of gains.
As I said earlier though the Greens will likely get the biggest boost relative to their poll rating, as most of the seats up are in urban and inner city councils in London, Newcastle, Manchester etc. In Scotland the Greens will also likely make gains.
Reform will do well in Wales and make a few gains in the outer London suburbs bordering Essex and Kent and the handful of county council elections postponed from last year in counties like Essex and Norfolk but most of the English counties where Reform poll best held their county council elections last year and have no district or county council elections in 2026.
The biggest unitary council elections will be in the new East and West Surrey councils where the LDs will be the biggest gainers not Reform.
Plenty of Met boroughs and unitary authorities are holding elections, with some having all-out elections, due to re-warding.
I think that Reform are very likely to take some big councils, like Barnsley, Wakefield, Halton, Sunderland, Sandwell, Swindon, Thurrock, and capture lots of seats in those boroughs electing by thirds.
With YouGov showing the LibDems in fifth, isn't the Davey out bet the one to take?
No, the LDs are also likely to make gains in English counties and districts which have elections and the wealthiest parts of London from the Tories and Labour and rural Scotland and Edinburgh in the May elections from the Tories and SNP
I don't think the Lib Dems will do particularly well at the locals, but the Tories and Labour will also struggle vis a vis Reform. Labour will do badly in Wales and Scotland but will weather the storm. 2027 will be far more significant.
I am expecting some pretty good LD gains in the Locals. LDs won more local byelections than any other party last year. I think that the Tories will not have a complete meltdown too, though will lose quite a few seats. It might be hard for Badenoch to spin it as "only a flesh wound", particularly with dismal performances in Wales and Scotland likely too.
The setting up of the new Surrey Councils has been a shambles. The Tory Surrey County Council wanted a single council. That was never going to fly. They are now in favour of 2 councils (East and West) against the wishes of 9 of the 11 councils who wanted 3 and which was far more practical. They spent taxpayers money sending out a very biased leaflet putting a one sided case. It was disgraceful (a bit like the Govt leaflet before the Brexit vote. I'm a remainer but happy to admit that was wrong).
This is now being rushed through because of Govt pressure and with the loss of elections last year, resulting in a significant number of councillors resigning because they were expecting to retire last year. There should have been elections with a 2 year transition instead of cancelled elections and a 1 year transition.
With YouGov showing the LibDems in fifth, isn't the Davey out bet the one to take?
No, the LDs are also likely to make gains in English counties and districts which have elections and the wealthiest parts of London from the Tories and Labour and rural Scotland and Edinburgh in the May elections from the Tories and SNP
I don't think the Lib Dems will do particularly well at the locals, but the Tories and Labour will also struggle vis a vis Reform. Labour will do badly in Wales and Scotland but will weather the storm. 2027 will be far more significant.
I am expecting some pretty good LD gains in the Locals. LDs won more local byelections than any other party last year. I think that the Tories will not have a complete meltdown too, though will lose quite a few seats. It might be hard for Badenoch to spin it as "only a flesh wound", particularly with dismal performances in Wales and Scotland likely too.
The key for Kemi is to beat Labour on the NEV at the end of the night, even if Reform still win that and the Tories lose some seats if the Tories are ahead of Labour then that should secure Kemi's job
The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai is the first Russian oil refinery to be hit by Ukrainian drones in 2026. Previously targeted in November and September of 2025, it has a capacity of 6.5 million tons and is the... 26th largest refinery in Russia with about 2% of total Russian capacity.
Also hit overnight was an oil terminal in Tartarstan that processes and stores crude oil from northern Russia oilfields. If the Ukrainians can damage that it might force some of the oil wells to shut down.
And once shut down, oil wells can take years to restart so Russia will not want to allow that.
Russia may not want =/= Russia can enforce.
This winter is going to be brutal for all concerned in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Ukrainians have endured 4 winters of it. Up to now, Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg have endured 0. The shock for metropolitan Russians will be severe.
Parts of Moscow and St.P spent last night without power, and at least four O&G facilities put on a free fireworks show.
My prediction for ‘26 is that ordinary metropolitan Russians finally start to feel that their country is at war.
Putin has previously told Russians that they are safe with him. That is the bargain - they give up certain freedoms in exchange for securtity and a strong economy. Ooops.
Oops indeed but we must always remember that for many Russians, the economy, the standard of living, was even worse within living memory. Putin still has brownie points for rescuing Russians from queueing for rotten meat in empty supermarkets.
With YouGov showing the LibDems in fifth, isn't the Davey out bet the one to take?
No, the LDs are also likely to make gains in English counties and districts which have elections and the wealthiest parts of London from the Tories and Labour and rural Scotland and Edinburgh in the May elections from the Tories and SNP
I don't think the Lib Dems will do particularly well at the locals, but the Tories and Labour will also struggle vis a vis Reform. Labour will do badly in Wales and Scotland but will weather the storm. 2027 will be far more significant.
The LDs won't "do well" because the elections in their most promising areas have been cancelled.
No they haven't, indeed if anything the fact areas like Norfolk, Suffolk, Hampshire and Essex and Sussex have county elections this year that were postponed from last year gives the LDs more opportunities than they would have had in the largely urban, Scottish and Welsh elections this year
Sussex, Surrey, and Hampshire certainly offer the prospect of big Lib Dem gains. The Eastern counties will likely be won by Reform.
There’s nothing for them to win from the Conservatives in London, although Camden and Southwark could see gains from Labour.
Those 3 counties certainly but even in Eastern counties areas like Chelmsford and North Norfolk have LD MPs now.
The Conservatives still have 3 councillors in LD controlled Kingston upon Thames, 1 in Richmond upon Thames and 20 in Sutton the LDs will target.
In Camden and Southwark the LDs will target the poshest bits, they won Hampstead Town from Labour in a by election in July 2022 for example and were close behind Labour in Dulwich village and London Bridge and West Bermondsey and South Bermondsey in May 2022. The rest will be mainly Green v Labour battles.
Even in Kensington and Chelsea, in 2022 the LDs were second to the Tories in seats like Courtfield and Pembridge and Queen's Gate and Redcliffe and Royal Hospital and won most seats in Earl's Court and will hope to gain a few Tory seats in the royal borough with Reform taking Tory votes.
The LDs would also have hopes of taking Marylebone ward on Westminster City Council where they were also second to the Tories in the last London local elections
Merton may also see some LD targets, from the Tories in Cannon Hill and Hillside wards where the LDs hold some but not all the councillors and Village where they were second to the Tories. They would also want to pick up a seat from Labour in Wandle and Abbey wards where they hold the other councillors.
In Haringey the LDs would hope the pick up 1 Alexandra Park and Fortis Green and Muswell Hill seat from Labour where they also hold the other seats and they hold 1/3 out of 3 seats in Crouch End so they would also hope for gains from Labour there. Stroud Green ward could also be a LD gain from Labour on a very good night https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Haringey_London_Borough_Council_election
In Lambeth too the LDs would hope to make a gain from Labour in Clapham Common where they hold 1 councillor and they were close behind Labour in Waterloo and South Bank as well
In Ealing, the Labour councillor in Ealing Common is a target in a majority LD held ward and the LDs would want to take the 2 Tory seats in Hanger Hill where they hold 1 councillor too.
Re your other post referring to LD gains in East and West Surrey. I agree they will make big gains. On the ground it is very much looking like that. Reform will also make a few gains in the more urban bit. I think the Tories are in for a slaughter. Whether this will be recorded in the media much I don't know as they may not be considered gains being new councils and although I think the LDs will do very well they will be outperformed nationally by Reform (who will be the main news item) and the Greens will get a decent showing as well.
I don't disagree kjh. Given the LDs now have the same number of Surrey MPs as the Tories and the LDs narrowly beat the Tories in the popular vote in Surrey at the 2024 GE, Tory county and district councillors who are nominated as candidate for the new unitary wards will have a lot of work to do to hold their seats
Reform have been quietly eroding for some time. Their support is to a very large extent driven by migration so, if the boats are ameliorated (a big if), then in conjunction with legal migration coming down I wonder if they could be down at 20-21% by year end.
I still haven't seen anything to suggest they're on course to win the next election.
Reform will likely get a big boost from May’s elections, with hundreds of gains.
As I said earlier though the Greens will likely get the biggest boost relative to their poll rating, as most of the seats up are in urban and inner city councils in London, Newcastle, Manchester etc. In Scotland the Greens will also likely make gains.
Reform will do well in Wales and make a few gains in the outer London suburbs bordering Essex and Kent and the handful of county council elections postponed from last year in counties like Essex and Norfolk but most of the English counties where Reform poll best held their county council elections last year and have no district or county council elections in 2026.
The biggest unitary council elections will be in the new East and West Surrey councils where the LDs will be the biggest gainers not Reform.
Plenty of Met boroughs and unitary authorities are holding elections, with some having all-out elections, due to re-warding.
I think that Reform are very likely to take some big councils, like Barnsley, Wakefield, Halton, Sunderland, Sandwell, Swindon, Thurrock, and capture lots of seats in those boroughs electing by thirds.
They will pick up a few more Brexity metropolitan councils like the above but most of the London and other urban and city council seats up next year voted Remain in the EU referendum so Reform gains will likely be less than Green and LD gains from Labour in those areas in the English local elections.
Most English district and unitary councils are next holding their elections in 2027, not next year
Five days ago it was announced that the leader of the Russian Volunteer Corps, Denis Kapustin, had died fighting for Ukraine against Russia. Today he has appeared on a video call with Budanov, alive and well, and the half a million dollars the Russians paid out for his death is now going to be used to help the defence of Ukraine.
A few weeks ago it was announced that the leader of the Russian Volunteer Corps, Denis Kapustin, had died fighting for Ukraine against Russia. Today he has appeared on a video call with Budanov, alive and well, and the half a million dollars the Russians paid out for his death is now going to be used to help the defence of Ukraine.
There's definitely a Yougov narrative of significant Reform slippage. They are an outlier and I don't know if I buy it to be honest. Yougov have tarnished their reputation a few too many times this year - frankly it has felt at times like they're attempting to influence opinion, not record it faithfully.
The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai is the first Russian oil refinery to be hit by Ukrainian drones in 2026. Previously targeted in November and September of 2025, it has a capacity of 6.5 million tons and is the... 26th largest refinery in Russia with about 2% of total Russian capacity.
Also hit overnight was an oil terminal in Tartarstan that processes and stores crude oil from northern Russia oilfields. If the Ukrainians can damage that it might force some of the oil wells to shut down.
And once shut down, oil wells can take years to restart so Russia will not want to allow that.
Russia may not want =/= Russia can enforce.
This winter is going to be brutal for all concerned in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Ukrainians have endured 4 winters of it. Up to now, Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg have endured 0. The shock for metropolitan Russians will be severe.
Parts of Moscow and St.P spent last night without power, and at least four O&G facilities put on a free fireworks show.
My prediction for ‘26 is that ordinary metropolitan Russians finally start to feel that their country is at war.
My prediction for 2026 is that we'll be inundated with anniversaries: 10 years since Brexit; 100 years since the Great Depression; and that's just the big ones. 50 years since the long, hot summer of 76; 60 years since England won the World Cup (since renamed the Men's World Cup; no doubt soon to be renamed the Trump World Cup).
250 years of the US.
1783?
Yes, strictly speaking that's when the USA became a legal entity, not 1776.
The Articles of Confederation established a national government before 1783, albeit a weak one.
The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai is the first Russian oil refinery to be hit by Ukrainian drones in 2026. Previously targeted in November and September of 2025, it has a capacity of 6.5 million tons and is the... 26th largest refinery in Russia with about 2% of total Russian capacity.
Also hit overnight was an oil terminal in Tartarstan that processes and stores crude oil from northern Russia oilfields. If the Ukrainians can damage that it might force some of the oil wells to shut down.
And once shut down, oil wells can take years to restart so Russia will not want to allow that.
Russia may not want =/= Russia can enforce.
This winter is going to be brutal for all concerned in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Ukrainians have endured 4 winters of it. Up to now, Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg have endured 0. The shock for metropolitan Russians will be severe.
Parts of Moscow and St.P spent last night without power, and at least four O&G facilities put on a free fireworks show.
My prediction for ‘26 is that ordinary metropolitan Russians finally start to feel that their country is at war.
My prediction for 2026 is that we'll be inundated with anniversaries: 10 years since Brexit; 100 years since the Great Depression; and that's just the big ones. 50 years since the long, hot summer of 76; 60 years since England won the World Cup (since renamed the Men's World Cup; no doubt soon to be renamed the Trump World Cup).
250 years of the US.
1783?
Yes, strictly speaking that's when the USA became a legal entity, not 1776.
The Articles of Confederation established a national government before 1783, albeit a weak one.
Comments
I would add, again, in 20 years of working with dyslexic students in unis and schools I've only come across one where a parent was acting as you describe with a child who clearly didn't have special needs. That's against hundreds who clearly did have them but were getting no support at all despite having pushy parents desperate to get help.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-H895vrIU8
Is 2026 the year when the wheels start coming off Reform. To me the big indicator at the moment is the lack of sane, thoughtful big name defectors. Even though Reform in a sense don't want them from other parties as it taints their ghastly brand, the question is whether the potential defectors need Reform.
Danny Kruger stands out a mile as being a more or less rational reasonably well known, house trained defector. The fact that no-one interesting followed is a non-barking dog.
Potentially the upward movement will be Greens. Ironically their name may be a barrier - lots of leftish Labour people aren't that interested in the environment and suspicious of Green NIMBYism. Nonetheless they only need to gain a few points to move into second place.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/c4glvg5yrlyo
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/wXzekYlK-7Q
An overhaul of the tax system announced late last year removes many exemptions that were in place since 1994, when China was still enforcing its decades-long one-child rule.
It also exempts marriage-related services and elderly care from value added tax (VAT) - part of a broader effort that includes extending parental leave and issuing cash handouts.
Faced with an ageing population and sluggish economy, Beijing has been trying hard to encourage more young Chinese people to marry, and couples to have children.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czxpk7r8w9yo
It does appear that “Two-tier Keir cancels elections” could be the first massive scandal of ‘26, assuming that Nigel and Kemi are all over it.
His reasoning around re-organisation is pretty much irrelevant, short of war or pandemic it’s utterly undemocratic behaviour.
Labour will lose first place in Wales but will do better in Scotland where the SNP vote is down more than the Labour vote since 2021
We will see, I suspect if Kemi does go Cleverly would be more likely to replace her this side of a general election
Q: Did you hear about the Eton advent calendar?
A: It’s just like a normal one except your father opens all the doors for you
Trusting them not to be so stupid and self-indulgent seems optimistic.
Coldplay's "video tribute" to Depeche Mode's Enjoy The Silence
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kVxpsi1XQ4
I was going to use another band but realised
Robert would have banned menone of you will have ever heard of Black Lace.What's REALLY Behind the £600m Horse Racing Betting Scandal
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enkNQNAWeAI
I think they are also vulnerable on being utterly miserable gits. It would only take one cheerful right-winger to blow them away. Robert Jenrick isn't that cheerful right-winger however.
Having said that, our mad electoral system could see Reform on an overall majority on just one quarter of the vote.
Even if it went to the membership Cleverly beat Jenrick 54% to 36% in a post 2024 Tory conference Con Home Conservative members survey.
Remember a lot of the most rightwing Boris and Truss voting Tory members are now ex Tory members and have joined Reform, Indeed even since last year a few Jenrick backers have also gone Reform
https://conservativehome.com/2024/10/06/cleverly-overtakes-jenrick-in-our-post-conference-leadership-survey/
Optimism grounded in reality would be better; BoJo's problem in government was that his optimism was mostly waffle derived from never having to clean up the mess he made. But baby steps.
I have a relative with 2 kids identified as SEN. They fought for a "statement" (using the older language) for the first, but it took a long time and involved a number of meetings attended with specialist barrister reports at 4 figures a time, and it swallowed parenting time; the child ended up with 2-3 years in a specialist independent school. For the second one they just used the money and the time to get their own support in place. They are not poor - live just outside the London political boundary with a combined income of 160-170k, but it all stopped posh holidays for a number of years.
There’s nothing for them to win from the Conservatives in London, although Camden and Southwark could see gains from Labour.
Given Red Bull is notably successful against other brands of sugared water, I wouldn't say they were necessarily wrong.
Maresca leaves Chelsea
The Conservatives still have 3 councillors in LD controlled Kingston upon Thames, 1 in Richmond upon Thames and 20 in Sutton the LDs will target.
In Camden and Southwark the LDs will target the poshest bits, they won Hampstead Town from Labour in a by election in July 2022 for example and were close behind Labour in Dulwich village and London Bridge and West Bermondsey and South Bermondsey in May 2022. The rest will be mainly Green v Labour battles.
Even in Kensington and Chelsea, in 2022 the LDs were second to the Tories in seats like Courtfield and Pembridge and Queen's Gate and Redcliffe and Royal Hospital and won most seats in Earl's Court and will hope to gain a few Tory seats in the royal borough with Reform taking Tory votes.
The LDs would also have hopes of taking Marylebone ward on Westminster City Council where they were also second to the Tories in the last London local elections
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/justice-department-5-million-pages-jeffrey-epstein-files-trump-rcna251702
For the Greens to lead in a poll, I reckon they need to get to at least 22% to have any chance (their best so far is 19%) and even that might only get them a tie. The equation is basically Reform plus Conservative divided by two. That's been as low as 21% in one YouGov back in July, but generally it doesn't go below 22%. And, of course, it needs the split to be 50:50.
I think I'd want more like 33/1 to be tempted.
It's all about the efficiency within the blocks.
What undoubtedly helped his chances was the fact that his father, William, was a long-standing friend of the firm’s founder, Lord Rothschild, having known him since the early 1970s. That William had himself been on the board of J. Rothschild Investment Management since 1987 cannot have done any harm to his son’s prospects either. Furthermore, William was on very good terms with Nils Taube, Lord Rothschild’s principal fund manager and the man who first taught Jacob Rees-Mogg how to manage money.
Ashcroft, Michael. Jacob's Ladder: The Unauthorised Biography of Jacob Rees-Mogg . Biteback Publishing. Kindle Edition.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Merton_London_Borough_Council_election
In Haringey the LDs would hope the pick up 1 Alexandra Park and Fortis Green and Muswell Hill seat from Labour where they also hold the other seats and they hold 1/3 out of 3 seats in Crouch End so they would also hope for gains from Labour there. Stroud Green ward could also be a LD gain from Labour on a very good night
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Haringey_London_Borough_Council_election
In Lambeth too the LDs would hope to make a gain from Labour in Clapham Common where they hold 1 councillor and they were close behind Labour in Waterloo and South Bank as well
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Lambeth_London_Borough_Council_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Ealing_London_Borough_Council_election
In Brent there are potential LD gains from Labour in Alperton and Sudbury where LDs already have some councillors.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Brent_London_Borough_Council_election
In Croydon the LDs were close behind the Tories in Old Poulsdon and hold 1/3 of the councillors in Crystal Palace and Upper Northwood so would hope to gain from Labour there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Croydon_London_Borough_Council_election
Finally, in Bromley the LDs have 2/3 of the seats in Beckenham Town and Copers Cope and would hope to pick up the remaining Tory seat there. The LDs were also not far behind the Tories in Orpington ward either
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Bromley_London_Borough_Council_election
I still haven't seen anything to suggest they're on course to win the next election.
Haven't we suffered enough?
Yet then again Cleverly polled second best with 2024 Tory voters who stayed loyal to Rishi, ahead of Jenrick and just behind Boris (who is not an MP and ineligible now anyway).
On the basis that at the next general election the Tories best bet is to shore up their 2024 core vote of 24% then Cleverly would be the best choice if Kemi went.
Jenrick is unlikely to win back those who voted for Reform even in 2024 as long as Farage leads Reform, he would be populist nationalist Pepsi to Farage's populist nationalist coke and Reform voters likely will prefer the real thing!
If Farage lost the next general election then Jenrick could be the man to reunite the right but not until then
https://conservativehome.com/2025/08/07/the-return-of-boris-tory-voters-are-looking-back-to-the-future/
I'm not sure 3/1 is enough to tempt me but that's the bet that is making me stroke my chin the most.
It shows Reform losing share to a reviving Tory party, and Greens continuing to take share from Labour.
(Actually we're having chicken stew for logistical reasons. The butcher pie (chicken and ham) was a few days back.)
Edited to remove potential spoilers.
I'm serious!
Reform will do well in Wales and make a few gains in the outer London suburbs bordering Essex and Kent and the handful of county council elections postponed from last year in counties like Essex and Norfolk but most of the English counties where Reform poll best held their county council elections last year and have no district or county council elections in 2026.
The biggest unitary council elections will be in the new East and West Surrey councils where the LDs will be the biggest gainers not Reform.
The first ever female Archbishop of Canterbury in the 1500 year history of the post will be installed at St Paul's Cathedral on 28th January
So far, the idea that Reform are a potential government, as opposed to the NOTA option, hasn't really bedded in beyond the politically minded.
What the results of that realisation may be I'm not entirely sure yet.
Polanski said he would not enter a political partnership with Labour under the current prime minister, but would consider it if the mayor of Greater Manchester took the helm.'
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/dec/31/uk-green-party-zack-polanski-labour-andy-burnham-keir-starmer-gary-lineker-bbc
Re your other post referring to LD gains in East and West Surrey. I agree they will make big gains. On the ground it is very much looking like that. Reform will also make a few gains in the more urban bit. I think the Tories are in for a slaughter. Whether this will be recorded in the media much I don't know as they may not be considered gains being new councils and although I think the LDs will do very well they will be outperformed nationally by Reform (who will be the main news item) and the Greens will get a decent showing as well.
I think that Reform are very likely to take some big councils, like Barnsley, Wakefield, Halton, Sunderland, Sandwell, Swindon, Thurrock, and capture lots of seats in those boroughs electing by thirds.
This is now being rushed through because of Govt pressure and with the loss of elections last year, resulting in a significant number of councillors resigning because they were expecting to retire last year. There should have been elections with a 2 year transition instead of cancelled elections and a 1 year transition.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentary_constituencies_in_Surrey
Most English district and unitary councils are next holding their elections in 2027, not next year
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mbekgwcmas2g
https://history.state.gov/milestones/1776-1783/articles