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A 10/1 and a 6/1 tip to start your new year – politicalbetting.com

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  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,632
    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    If you argue that the Europeans are insular and unreliable allies then it's arguable, in that the US wouldn't expect any help from the Europeans in the Pacific either way and so fuck 'em.

    But I tend to think that helping Ukraine to win would (a) create a new ally in Ukraine who could help the US in the future and, (b) free up Britain, at least, from the worries of European defence to help the US in the Pacific. Plus generally build confidence in democracies that they can stand up to dictatorships and win.

    Maybe (b) is not so much a factor, because Britain's aircraft carriers aren't much use defending against Russia, so they will be available to become a missile target in the Pacific either way for all the good that will achieve.

    I think the most important benefit of a Ukrainian victory with US assistance would be that it would create deterrence value against China attacking Taiwan. That even makes a case for the US air force intervening directly in the Ukraine War to achieve a rapid victory.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,208
    dixiedean said:

    Does anyone know Portuguese?

    "Eu ando por todo o lado, e bebo como um desalmado"

    I'm going to walk from Lisbon to Santiago next year

    In Chile?
    The Galician one that has Caminos

    If I can just learn how to say the new motto..
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,525
    The plebs Traitors is nowhere near as engrossing as the sleb one.
  • SonofContrarianSonofContrarian Posts: 263
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Venison and chicken curry:


    Also with rice, chips, Peshwari naan and mango chutney.

    To be honest, that looks hideous.

    I hope it tastes better than it looks.
    Yes, normally I'm quite jealous of the food photos that are posted..but that looks like a calorie overload..🥴
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,965
    ydoethur said:

    Venison and chicken curry:


    Also with rice, chips, Peshwari naan and mango chutney.

    A new career awaits.

    https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/careers/roles/catering-services-rating
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,283

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    If you argue that the Europeans are insular and unreliable allies then it's arguable, in that the US wouldn't expect any help from the Europeans in the Pacific either way and so fuck 'em.

    But I tend to think that helping Ukraine to win would (a) create a new ally in Ukraine who could help the US in the future and, (b) free up Britain, at least, from the worries of European defence to help the US in the Pacific. Plus generally build confidence in democracies that they can stand up to dictatorships and win.

    Maybe (b) is not so much a factor, because Britain's aircraft carriers aren't much use defending against Russia, so they will be available to become a missile target in the Pacific either way for all the good that will achieve.

    I think the most important benefit of a Ukrainian victory with US assistance would be that it would create deterrence value against China attacking Taiwan. That even makes a case for the US air force intervening directly in the Ukraine War to achieve a rapid victory.
    Ask yourself what your opponent doesn't want you to do. In the case of China I don't think they want the US to support Ukraine and defeat Russia. That does create opportunities for them but a Russia that is no longer a bulwark against the west leaves China isolated.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,208
    Who in the world has two foreign language, idiomatic, rhyming, self invented so original, holiday mottos?
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,586
    Dura_Ace said:


    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.

    "Mr. Kellogg’s feelings about the Russians had been forged in the depths of the Cold War. Serving in U.S. Special Forces, he had led a Green Light team, soldiers trained to parachute behind Soviet lines with tactical nuclear weapons strapped between their legs. He also harbored a suspicion that the Russians had once tried to kill him. In 2000, while on the Army staff at the Pentagon, he had just left an event at the Russian embassy when he felt a sharp pain in his right elbow. Later, at dinner with friends, his wife noticed the swelling. The next day, he was rushed to the hospital, where doctors nearly had to amputate his arm to keep a staph infection from spreading."

    Bloody hell, would the Russians have really tried to kill him in Washington DC? It's not like he was a major player, was he?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 47,274
    edited 8:43PM
    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    Venison and chicken curry:


    Also with rice, chips, Peshwari naan and mango chutney.

    A new career awaits.

    https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/careers/roles/catering-services-rating
    You can tell who is the PO in the header photo. Edit: and not just the rank badge.

    I'm obscurely reminded of my father's tales of when his ship was in Pompey at holiday time when the rest of the crew were given just enough leave to go home if they lived somewhere godforsaken but easy like Tooting or Gosport. The residue from Scotland, Isle of Man, etc. had to stay on board but were given extra good meals by the remaining hash-slingers who felt it was in their own interests to do their best.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,105
    edited 8:41PM
    Taz said:

    Oh god, we’re watching the fucking Traitors, I’d sooner listen to Keir Starmer talk about his Dads career.

    Simpsons Movie, Channel E4.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,525

    Taz said:

    Oh god, we’re watching the fucking Traitors, I’d sooner listen to Keir Starmer talk about his Dads career.

    Simpsons Movie, Channel E4.
    Sadly wife and mother in law want to watch it.

    I’m off to bed to watch the darts.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,208
    I told both Google AI and Grok about when I stayed in Gan. In the morning I walked to Lourdes and crossed the river Neez. Not long after I walked past an apiary; I saw the Neez Bees

    Both of the AIs got the (real life) joke immediately, and told me how clever I was to make it at that moment (which I shared on PB)

    I reckon that's quite good AI, to get the sound of a nonsensical Spoonerism of the Bees Knees
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 36,472
    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone read Embassytown?

    I assume the author plus at least one person at the publishers did.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,793
    You’re the ones who demanded photos when I talked about venison curry the other day.

    I am sure I have told you I am the only living man who has ever burned a salad.

    Yes, really.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,819
    ydoethur said:

    You’re the ones who demanded photos when I talked about venison curry the other day.

    I am sure I have told you I am the only living man who has ever burned a salad.

    Yes, really.

    My wife has burned soup.
    Several times.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,632
    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone read Embassytown?

    I haven't read that one yet. Gosh, it was published in 2011, I didn't realise I was so far behind.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,765

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone read Embassytown?

    I assume the author plus at least one person at the publishers did.
    Look at you, mister pre-LLM.... ;-)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,819
    Finally got around to seeing the F1 movie.

    It's odd.
    Both deeply ludicrous, and at the same time, strangely credible.

    So a bit like F1.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,857
    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    I watched the first of a twenty four part series about the Iron Curtain earlier. It was on the BBC in 1998, and narrated by Kenneth Branagh. One thing that struck me immediately was the use of the past tense to describe what had happened, rather than the modern trend of using the present, which I find really irritating

    That's a really good series. I still use it today when teaching the Cold War, especially the episodes on Berlin (1948/61) Korea and Cuba.
    The one on the break up of Yugoslavia that was broadcast in 1995 is excellent as well.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,778
    edited 8:55PM
    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    JD Vance is not correct. His policy on Ukraine, Russia and Europe generally serves no purpose except he takes pleasure in humiliating Europeans. At least Trump is transactional. He and his family expect to make a lot of money out of Russia.

    I wouldn't say the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a win for China. It wasn't what they wanted but they have so far avoided being dragged into it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,819
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    JD Vance is not correct. His policy on Ukraine, Russia and Europe generally serves no purpose except he takes pleasure in humiliating Europeans. At least Trump is transactional. He and his family expect to make a lot of money out of Russia.

    I wouldn't say the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a win for China. It wasn't what they wanted but they have so far avoided being dragged into it.
    Vance is just an arse.
    That's all.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,778
    edited 9:05PM

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    If you argue that the Europeans are insular and unreliable allies then it's arguable, in that the US wouldn't expect any help from the Europeans in the Pacific either way and so fuck 'em.

    But I tend to think that helping Ukraine to win would (a) create a new ally in Ukraine who could help the US in the future and, (b) free up Britain, at least, from the worries of European defence to help the US in the Pacific. Plus generally build confidence in democracies that they can stand up to dictatorships and win.

    Maybe (b) is not so much a factor, because Britain's aircraft carriers aren't much use defending against Russia, so they will be available to become a missile target in the Pacific either way for all the good that will achieve.

    I think the most important benefit of a Ukrainian victory with US assistance would be that it would create deterrence value against China attacking Taiwan. That even makes a case for the US air force intervening directly in the Ukraine War to achieve a rapid victory.
    I think there are two reasonable self-interested positions for the United States on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. One is to see it as an attack on liberal democracy and the rule of law and therefore an attack on American hegemony. The US in this case should directly support Ukraine against Russia.

    The other is to decide Europe is not our circus, not our monkeys. Europe can sort out the Ukraine mess itself. China is the US' biggest threat so it focuses its efforts there. The US supports the Europeans diplomatically and with intelligence but isn't otherwise involved.

    Undermining its erstwhile allies for no benefit to itself is not in the US interest in my view.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,074
    Traitors is absolutely brilliant again.
    Secret Traitor is a super addition.
    And Roxy and Jade are gorgeous.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,819
    I hope this is true.

    ..On December 27, 2025, numerous media outlets—Ukrainian, Russian, and international sources (e.g., Wikipedia, Euromaidan Press, Kyiv Independent, Russian propaganda channels)—reported the death of the commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), Denis Kapustin (also known as Denis Nikitin or White Rex). He was reportedly killed in combat in the Zaporizhzhia region by a Russian FPV drone attack. The RDK itself initially confirmed this in an official statement.

    Today, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (GUR) released a video in which Kyrylo Budanov (head of the GUR) personally greets Denis Kapustin with the words, "Congratulations on your return!" and congratulates him and the GUR team.

    According to the official statement from the GUR (Ukrainian Special Forces), this was a planned disinformation operation, prepared over a month in advance:

    - Russian special services had offered a reward of $500,000 for the assassination of Kapustin (Kapustin is considered a terrorist in Russia and has been sentenced to life imprisonment multiple times in absentia).

    - The GUR team (under the command of "Timur") successfully deceived the Russians, staged the assassination, and collected the money. 😂😂😂

    - Kapustin is alive, safe in Ukraine, and preparing for further operations.

    - The identities of the Russian masterminds and executors were revealed.

    Budanov praised the operation as a complete success: The Russian services were "fooled," and the money received will now be used to strengthen Ukrainian special forces...

    https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/2006715072047976774
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,208
    I've done this a few times; have I found any fans of the Joy Of Cooking?

    Yatata
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9W0kG138IA
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,195
    edited 9:20PM
    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone read Embassytown?

    Yes, @rcs1000. Me, @viewcode . Years ago. It's one of the better of his (China Mieville) standalone novels, although I think his best remains "The City And The City" in that regard. I remember liking it (Embassytown) but for the life of me I can't remember why.

    Pause

    This is probably not as helpful as you wanted. Still, here's a quick BookTube review by a woman in skull pyjamas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KyXbqQF9WA
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,003
    dixiedean said:

    Traitors is absolutely brilliant again.
    Secret Traitor is a super addition.
    And Roxy and Jade are gorgeous.

    Spoiler.

    I am the Secret Traitor.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,778
    edited 9:20PM
    .
    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    JD Vance is not correct. His policy on Ukraine, Russia and Europe generally serves no purpose except he takes pleasure in humiliating Europeans. At least Trump is transactional. He and his family expect to make a lot of money out of Russia.

    I wouldn't say the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a win for China. It wasn't what they wanted but they have so far avoided being dragged into it.
    Vance is just an arse.
    That's all.
    An interesting party game is to identify if there's anything, anything at all, that JD Vance, dogmatist always willing to share an opinion, actually believes in, unless it's to progress his career.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,003
    Taz said:

    The plebs Traitors is nowhere near as engrossing as the sleb one.

    Nah.

    But Slebs + Secret Traitor will be fun!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,096

    dixiedean said:

    Traitors is absolutely brilliant again.
    Secret Traitor is a super addition.
    And Roxy and Jade are gorgeous.

    Spoiler.

    I am the Secret Traitor.
    Are you a Reform politician?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,644
    edited 9:26PM
    dixiedean said:

    Traitors is absolutely brilliant again.
    Secret Traitor is a super addition.
    And Roxy and Jade are gorgeous.

    Watching it for the first time to see what all the fuss is about. I think I've sussed who the secret traitor is.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,577
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    JD Vance is not correct. His policy on Ukraine, Russia and Europe generally serves no purpose except he takes pleasure in humiliating Europeans. At least Trump is transactional. He and his family expect to make a lot of money out of Russia.

    I wouldn't say the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a win for China. It wasn't what they wanted but they have so far avoided being dragged into it.
    Yes, Vance has a real hillbilly sized chip on his shoulder when dealing with Europeans. He is jealous of a class above him, which may be why he got on so well with Lammy. Vance doesn't see Lammy as part of that European elite, and I think Lammy has a similar chip on his shoulder.

    Vance is a chameleon in human form, a sort of Talented Mr Ripley. I think he is even more susceptible to flattery than Trump. Getting him onside is probably mostly a matter of getting him some red carpet type treatment next time he comes here.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,359
    Things appear to be kicking off in Iran

    That might inter alia be good news for Ukraine
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,195
    isam said:

    I watched the first of a twenty four part series about the Iron Curtain earlier. It was on the BBC in 1998, and narrated by Kenneth Branagh. One thing that struck me immediately was the use of the past tense to describe what had happened, rather than the modern trend of using the present, which I find really irritating

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_War_(TV_series)
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,108
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    JD Vance is not correct. His policy on Ukraine, Russia and Europe generally serves no purpose except he takes pleasure in humiliating Europeans. At least Trump is transactional. He and his family expect to make a lot of money out of Russia.

    I wouldn't say the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a win for China. It wasn't what they wanted but they have so far avoided being dragged into it.
    Yes, Vance has a real hillbilly sized chip on his shoulder when dealing with Europeans. He is jealous of a class above him, which may be why he got on so well with Lammy. Vance doesn't see Lammy as part of that European elite, and I think Lammy has a similar chip on his shoulder.

    Vance is a chameleon in human form, a sort of Talented Mr Ripley. I think he is even more susceptible to flattery than Trump. Getting him onside is probably mostly a matter of getting him some red carpet type treatment next time he comes here.
    ...or a new 3 piece suite...
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 27,021
    Scott_xP said:

    Things appear to be kicking off in Iran

    That might inter alia be good news for Ukraine

    And the world.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,793

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    JD Vance is not correct. His policy on Ukraine, Russia and Europe generally serves no purpose except he takes pleasure in humiliating Europeans. At least Trump is transactional. He and his family expect to make a lot of money out of Russia.

    I wouldn't say the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a win for China. It wasn't what they wanted but they have so far avoided being dragged into it.
    Yes, Vance has a real hillbilly sized chip on his shoulder when dealing with Europeans. He is jealous of a class above him, which may be why he got on so well with Lammy. Vance doesn't see Lammy as part of that European elite, and I think Lammy has a similar chip on his shoulder.

    Vance is a chameleon in human form, a sort of Talented Mr Ripley. I think he is even more susceptible to flattery than Trump. Getting him onside is probably mostly a matter of getting him some red carpet type treatment next time he comes here.
    ...or a new 3 piece suite...
    If couched in an acceptable way perhaps.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,774
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone read Embassytown?

    Yes, @rcs1000. Me, @viewcode . Years ago. It's one of the better of his (China Mieville) standalone novels, although I think his best remains "The City And The City" in that regard. I remember liking it (Embassytown) but for the life of me I can't remember why.

    Pause

    This is probably not as helpful as you wanted. Still, here's a quick BookTube review by a woman in skull pyjamas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KyXbqQF9WA
    I loved Perdido Street Station, really liked The Scar, and loved the premise of The City and The City, but felt it didn't quite achieve its potential as a novel.

    I got bored with Iron Council.

    I can't decide on Railsea or Embassytown next.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,774

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    If you argue that the Europeans are insular and unreliable allies then it's arguable, in that the US wouldn't expect any help from the Europeans in the Pacific either way and so fuck 'em.

    But I tend to think that helping Ukraine to win would (a) create a new ally in Ukraine who could help the US in the future and, (b) free up Britain, at least, from the worries of European defence to help the US in the Pacific. Plus generally build confidence in democracies that they can stand up to dictatorships and win.

    Maybe (b) is not so much a factor, because Britain's aircraft carriers aren't much use defending against Russia, so they will be available to become a missile target in the Pacific either way for all the good that will achieve.

    I think the most important benefit of a Ukrainian victory with US assistance would be that it would create deterrence value against China attacking Taiwan. That even makes a case for the US air force intervening directly in the Ukraine War to achieve a rapid victory.
    Ask yourself what your opponent doesn't want you to do. In the case of China I don't think they want the US to support Ukraine and defeat Russia. That does create opportunities for them but a Russia that is no longer a bulwark against the west leaves China isolated.
    I think this is the key point.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,793
    In the least surprising news ever, Usman Khawaja has announced he will be retiring after the Sydney Test.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,819
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone read Embassytown?

    Yes, @rcs1000. Me, @viewcode . Years ago. It's one of the better of his (China Mieville) standalone novels, although I think his best remains "The City And The City" in that regard. I remember liking it (Embassytown) but for the life of me I can't remember why.

    Pause

    This is probably not as helpful as you wanted. Still, here's a quick BookTube review by a woman in skull pyjamas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KyXbqQF9WA
    Embassytown is pretty good.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,778
    edited 9:50PM

    I notice the Guardian has chose this moment to publish a piece by the Iranian foreign minister. I wonder if they will give a right of reply to an Iranian dissident.

    The Iranian FM's call to the West to engage with Iran might suddenly be topical, but not necessarily in the way his regime would like.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/dec/30/iran-donald-trump-real-talks-both-win

    To your point, I should add I doubt many dissidents would disagree with his argument.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,068
    ydoethur said:

    In the least surprising news ever, Usman Khawaja has announced he will be retiring after the Sydney Test.

    As the current series has been disappointingly short, I've been trying to watch highlights of the 2010/11 series on YouTube. The available vids aren't great, annoyingly jumping large segments.
    Overall impression is that the standard of test batting has deteriorated dramatically in 15 years.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,922
    Great 1st episode of the Traitors.
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