There's definitely a Yougov narrative of significant Reform slippage. They are an outlier and I don't know if I buy it to be honest. Yougov have tarnished their reputation a few too many times this year - frankly it has felt at times like they're attempting to influence opinion, not record it faithfully.
Tut-tut... impuning the principles of a BPC member organisation.
There's definitely a Yougov narrative of significant Reform slippage. They are an outlier and I don't know if I buy it to be honest. Yougov have tarnished their reputation a few too many times this year - frankly it has felt at times like they're attempting to influence opinion, not record it faithfully.
It's not just YouGov, it's just more noticeable with YouGov because they give lower scores for Reform in general.
The December average for Reform with Find Out Now was 31%. The September average was 33.25%.
That decline matches the average shown on the Wikipedia graph.
Reform have been quietly eroding for some time. Their support is to a very large extent driven by migration so, if the boats are ameliorated (a big if), then in conjunction with legal migration coming down I wonder if they could be down at 20-21% by year end.
I still haven't seen anything to suggest they're on course to win the next election.
Reform will likely get a big boost from May’s elections, with hundreds of gains.
As I said earlier though the Greens will likely get the biggest boost relative to their poll rating, as most of the seats up are in urban and inner city councils in London, Newcastle, Manchester etc. In Scotland the Greens will also likely make gains.
Reform will do well in Wales and make a few gains in the outer London suburbs bordering Essex and Kent and the handful of county council elections postponed from last year in counties like Essex and Norfolk but most of the English counties where Reform poll best held their county council elections last year and have no district or county council elections in 2026.
The biggest unitary council elections will be in the new East and West Surrey councils where the LDs will be the biggest gainers not Reform.
Plenty of Met boroughs and unitary authorities are holding elections, with some having all-out elections, due to re-warding.
I think that Reform are very likely to take some big councils, like Barnsley, Wakefield, Halton, Sunderland, Sandwell, Swindon, Thurrock, and capture lots of seats in those boroughs electing by thirds.
They will pick up a few more Brexity metropolitan councils like the above but most of the London and other urban and city council seats up next year voted Remain in the EU referendum so Reform gains will likely be less than Green and LD gains from Labour in those areas in the English local elections.
Most English district and unitary councils are next holding their elections in 2027, not next year
Whether the Tory wards in Bradford stay blue or go Reform will be interesting to see. Also whether they split the right of centre vote in Labour wards and let us hang on.
Will be an interesting set of results in the former City of Culture.
By publishing an op ed written by an Iranian apparatchik at the very moment the Iranian people are rising up the Guardian shows itself to be a parody of everything it’s supposed to represent. Standing up for the oppressed? Give me a break
There's definitely a Yougov narrative of significant Reform slippage. They are an outlier and I don't know if I buy it to be honest. Yougov have tarnished their reputation a few too many times this year - frankly it has felt at times like they're attempting to influence opinion, not record it faithfully.
Reform will get most of the publicity and headlines at the May elections, in England, Wales and Scotland. Unless they do particularly badly, they will benefit from positive coverage in the media, which will boost them post election.
With YouGov showing the LibDems in fifth, isn't the Davey out bet the one to take?
No, the LDs are also likely to make gains in English counties and districts which have elections and the wealthiest parts of London from the Tories and Labour and rural Scotland and Edinburgh in the May elections from the Tories and SNP
I don't think the Lib Dems will do particularly well at the locals, but the Tories and Labour will also struggle vis a vis Reform. Labour will do badly in Wales and Scotland but will weather the storm. 2027 will be far more significant.
I am expecting some pretty good LD gains in the Locals. LDs won more local byelections than any other party last year. I think that the Tories will not have a complete meltdown too, though will lose quite a few seats. It might be hard for Badenoch to spin it as "only a flesh wound", particularly with dismal performances in Wales and Scotland likely too.
The key for Kemi is to beat Labour on the NEV at the end of the night, even if Reform still win that and the Tories lose some seats if the Tories are ahead of Labour then that should secure Kemi's job
I remember last May Kemi turning up to celebrate the one win the Tories managed, while totally ignoring the hammering they'd suffered everywhere else.
There's definitely a Yougov narrative of significant Reform slippage. They are an outlier and I don't know if I buy it to be honest. Yougov have tarnished their reputation a few too many times this year - frankly it has felt at times like they're attempting to influence opinion, not record it faithfully.
It's not just YouGov, it's just more noticeable with YouGov because they give lower scores for Reform in general.
The December average for Reform with Find Out Now was 31%. The September average was 33.25%.
That decline matches the average shown on the Wikipedia graph.
It wouldn't be more noticeable with Yougov if they had lower Reform scores generally - it would be the same amount of noticeable.
We'll soon get to see - if there are any surviving elections that Labour hasn't cancelled by then.
Reform have been quietly eroding for some time. Their support is to a very large extent driven by migration so, if the boats are ameliorated (a big if), then in conjunction with legal migration coming down I wonder if they could be down at 20-21% by year end.
I still haven't seen anything to suggest they're on course to win the next election.
This is my EMA of polls including the latest Find Out Now of 24th December. It shows Reform losing share to a reviving Tory party, and Greens continuing to take share from Labour.
Not sure it does show Reform losing share to a reviving Tory party tbh. There is a late uptick in Conservative Party support with a corresponding reduction in Reform support that might turn out to be a trend this year. Basically both parties flatlined in 2025, Reform at a high level and the Tories at a low level. Labour continued to plunge and the Greens surged however.
There's definitely a Yougov narrative of significant Reform slippage. They are an outlier and I don't know if I buy it to be honest. Yougov have tarnished their reputation a few too many times this year - frankly it has felt at times like they're attempting to influence opinion, not record it faithfully.
Tut-tut... impuning the principles of a BPC member organisation.
How sad to start the new year by being a tell tale tit.
Reform have been quietly eroding for some time. Their support is to a very large extent driven by migration so, if the boats are ameliorated (a big if), then in conjunction with legal migration coming down I wonder if they could be down at 20-21% by year end.
I still haven't seen anything to suggest they're on course to win the next election.
Reform will likely get a big boost from May’s elections, with hundreds of gains.
As I said earlier though the Greens will likely get the biggest boost relative to their poll rating, as most of the seats up are in urban and inner city councils in London, Newcastle, Manchester etc. In Scotland the Greens will also likely make gains.
Reform will do well in Wales and make a few gains in the outer London suburbs bordering Essex and Kent and the handful of county council elections postponed from last year in counties like Essex and Norfolk but most of the English counties where Reform poll best held their county council elections last year and have no district or county council elections in 2026.
The biggest unitary council elections will be in the new East and West Surrey councils where the LDs will be the biggest gainers not Reform.
Plenty of Met boroughs and unitary authorities are holding elections, with some having all-out elections, due to re-warding.
I think that Reform are very likely to take some big councils, like Barnsley, Wakefield, Halton, Sunderland, Sandwell, Swindon, Thurrock, and capture lots of seats in those boroughs electing by thirds.
The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai is the first Russian oil refinery to be hit by Ukrainian drones in 2026. Previously targeted in November and September of 2025, it has a capacity of 6.5 million tons and is the... 26th largest refinery in Russia with about 2% of total Russian capacity.
Also hit overnight was an oil terminal in Tartarstan that processes and stores crude oil from northern Russia oilfields. If the Ukrainians can damage that it might force some of the oil wells to shut down.
And once shut down, oil wells can take years to restart so Russia will not want to allow that.
Russia may not want =/= Russia can enforce.
This winter is going to be brutal for all concerned in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Ukrainians have endured 4 winters of it. Up to now, Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg have endured 0. The shock for metropolitan Russians will be severe.
Parts of Moscow and St.P spent last night without power, and at least four O&G facilities put on a free fireworks show.
My prediction for ‘26 is that ordinary metropolitan Russians finally start to feel that their country is at war.
Putin has previously told Russians that they are safe with him. That is the bargain - they give up certain freedoms in exchange for securtity and a strong economy. Ooops.
Oops indeed but we must always remember that for many Russians, the economy, the standard of living, was even worse within living memory. Putin still has brownie points for rescuing Russians from queueing for rotten meat in empty supermarkets.
Thats quite a few years ago now.
Yes but so are lots of things that still have influence. As someone wrote the other day, the two world wars were closer in time to each other than we are to 9/11. Another exemplar besides Putin would be Robert Mugabe who turned Zimbabwe into a basket case but was still revered as the man who'd liberated Rhodesia.
The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai is the first Russian oil refinery to be hit by Ukrainian drones in 2026. Previously targeted in November and September of 2025, it has a capacity of 6.5 million tons and is the... 26th largest refinery in Russia with about 2% of total Russian capacity.
Also hit overnight was an oil terminal in Tartarstan that processes and stores crude oil from northern Russia oilfields. If the Ukrainians can damage that it might force some of the oil wells to shut down.
And once shut down, oil wells can take years to restart so Russia will not want to allow that.
Russia may not want =/= Russia can enforce.
This winter is going to be brutal for all concerned in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Ukrainians have endured 4 winters of it. Up to now, Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg have endured 0. The shock for metropolitan Russians will be severe.
Parts of Moscow and St.P spent last night without power, and at least four O&G facilities put on a free fireworks show.
My prediction for ‘26 is that ordinary metropolitan Russians finally start to feel that their country is at war.
My prediction for 2026 is that we'll be inundated with anniversaries: 10 years since Brexit; 100 years since the Great Depression; and that's just the big ones. 50 years since the long, hot summer of 76; 60 years since England won the World Cup (since renamed the Men's World Cup; no doubt soon to be renamed the Trump World Cup).
250 years of the US.
1783?
Yes, strictly speaking that's when the USA became a legal entity, not 1776.
The Articles of Confederation established a national government before 1783, albeit a weak one.
The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai is the first Russian oil refinery to be hit by Ukrainian drones in 2026. Previously targeted in November and September of 2025, it has a capacity of 6.5 million tons and is the... 26th largest refinery in Russia with about 2% of total Russian capacity.
Also hit overnight was an oil terminal in Tartarstan that processes and stores crude oil from northern Russia oilfields. If the Ukrainians can damage that it might force some of the oil wells to shut down.
And once shut down, oil wells can take years to restart so Russia will not want to allow that.
Russia may not want =/= Russia can enforce.
This winter is going to be brutal for all concerned in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Ukrainians have endured 4 winters of it. Up to now, Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg have endured 0. The shock for metropolitan Russians will be severe.
Parts of Moscow and St.P spent last night without power, and at least four O&G facilities put on a free fireworks show.
My prediction for ‘26 is that ordinary metropolitan Russians finally start to feel that their country is at war.
My prediction for 2026 is that we'll be inundated with anniversaries: 10 years since Brexit; 100 years since the Great Depression; and that's just the big ones. 50 years since the long, hot summer of 76; 60 years since England won the World Cup (since renamed the Men's World Cup; no doubt soon to be renamed the Trump World Cup).
250 years of the US.
1783?
Yes, strictly speaking that's when the USA became a legal entity, not 1776.
The Articles of Confederation established a national government before 1783, albeit a weak one.
Someone’s told Trump it’s 250 years this year, so don’t confuse him with facts. He won’t be President in 7 years time, anyway.
Hindenberg and de Valera were both Presidents at greater ages than that. And Hindenberg was elected to a semi-executive presidency when 84 and clearly suffering from some form of senile decay.
I don't think we should make assumptions about Trump.
With YouGov showing the LibDems in fifth, isn't the Davey out bet the one to take?
No, the LDs are also likely to make gains in English counties and districts which have elections and the wealthiest parts of London from the Tories and Labour and rural Scotland and Edinburgh in the May elections from the Tories and SNP
I don't think the Lib Dems will do particularly well at the locals, but the Tories and Labour will also struggle vis a vis Reform. Labour will do badly in Wales and Scotland but will weather the storm. 2027 will be far more significant.
I am expecting some pretty good LD gains in the Locals. LDs won more local byelections than any other party last year. I think that the Tories will not have a complete meltdown too, though will lose quite a few seats. It might be hard for Badenoch to spin it as "only a flesh wound", particularly with dismal performances in Wales and Scotland likely too.
The key for Kemi is to beat Labour on the NEV at the end of the night, even if Reform still win that and the Tories lose some seats if the Tories are ahead of Labour then that should secure Kemi's job
I remember last May Kemi turning up to celebrate the one win the Tories managed, while totally ignoring the hammering they'd suffered everywhere else.
The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai is the first Russian oil refinery to be hit by Ukrainian drones in 2026. Previously targeted in November and September of 2025, it has a capacity of 6.5 million tons and is the... 26th largest refinery in Russia with about 2% of total Russian capacity.
Also hit overnight was an oil terminal in Tartarstan that processes and stores crude oil from northern Russia oilfields. If the Ukrainians can damage that it might force some of the oil wells to shut down.
And once shut down, oil wells can take years to restart so Russia will not want to allow that.
Russia may not want =/= Russia can enforce.
This winter is going to be brutal for all concerned in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Ukrainians have endured 4 winters of it. Up to now, Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg have endured 0. The shock for metropolitan Russians will be severe.
Parts of Moscow and St.P spent last night without power, and at least four O&G facilities put on a free fireworks show.
My prediction for ‘26 is that ordinary metropolitan Russians finally start to feel that their country is at war.
My prediction for 2026 is that we'll be inundated with anniversaries: 10 years since Brexit; 100 years since the Great Depression; and that's just the big ones. 50 years since the long, hot summer of 76; 60 years since England won the World Cup (since renamed the Men's World Cup; no doubt soon to be renamed the Trump World Cup).
250 years of the US.
1783?
Yes, strictly speaking that's when the USA became a legal entity, not 1776.
The Articles of Confederation established a national government before 1783, albeit a weak one.
Someone’s told Trump it’s 250 years this year, so don’t confuse him with facts. He won’t be President in 7 years time, anyway.
Hindenberg and de Valera were both Presidents at greater ages than that. And Hindenberg was elected to a semi-executive presidency when 84 and clearly suffering from some form of senile decay.
I don't think we should make assumptions about Trump.
I don't think that anyone is assuming that Trump has some form of senile decay. It is more an observable fact.
Reform have been quietly eroding for some time. Their support is to a very large extent driven by migration so, if the boats are ameliorated (a big if), then in conjunction with legal migration coming down I wonder if they could be down at 20-21% by year end.
I still haven't seen anything to suggest they're on course to win the next election.
Reform will likely get a big boost from May’s elections, with hundreds of gains.
As I said earlier though the Greens will likely get the biggest boost relative to their poll rating, as most of the seats up are in urban and inner city councils in London, Newcastle, Manchester etc. In Scotland the Greens will also likely make gains.
Reform will do well in Wales and make a few gains in the outer London suburbs bordering Essex and Kent and the handful of county council elections postponed from last year in counties like Essex and Norfolk but most of the English counties where Reform poll best held their county council elections last year and have no district or county council elections in 2026.
The biggest unitary council elections will be in the new East and West Surrey councils where the LDs will be the biggest gainers not Reform.
Plenty of Met boroughs and unitary authorities are holding elections, with some having all-out elections, due to re-warding.
I think that Reform are very likely to take some big councils, like Barnsley, Wakefield, Halton, Sunderland, Sandwell, Swindon, Thurrock, and capture lots of seats in those boroughs electing by thirds.
I think those 7 are quite likely for Reform.
(Caveat: assuming elections happen here !!! )
IMO they will take also Ashfield by dominating the north end away from Nottingham, maybe with 2/3 of the seats (which would be 20~25 from 34). Tories are peripheral. Ashfield Independents have their Council Leader waiting for a Crown Court appearance in 2027 on about a dozen charges. The Deputy Leader has not stopped committing crimes, and his vote has been deflating for quite some time. Labour were 2nd in the GE, but the narrative is strongly against them. LDs are just starting to reorganise from autumn 2025, but it will take them a decade to get far, black swans aside. Thatcher style, there is currently no perceived alternative.
Mansfield will go RefUK imo (the former Mansfield Independents are now a part of the Reform core at county level), and so could Bolsover and others places on the Derbyshire side. RefUK are fucking up Derbyshire quite seriously at very high speed, faster than Notts, but I don't think it will cut through in former mining areas yet.
There's definitely a Yougov narrative of significant Reform slippage. They are an outlier and I don't know if I buy it to be honest. Yougov have tarnished their reputation a few too many times this year - frankly it has felt at times like they're attempting to influence opinion, not record it faithfully.
It's not just YouGov, it's just more noticeable with YouGov because they give lower scores for Reform in general.
The December average for Reform with Find Out Now was 31%. The September average was 33.25%.
That decline matches the average shown on the Wikipedia graph.
It wouldn't be more noticeable with Yougov if they had lower Reform scores generally - it would be the same amount of noticeable.
We'll soon get to see - if there are any surviving elections that Labour hasn't cancelled by then.
Reform average in December for YouGov is 26.5%. For September 28.6%.
So, um, very marginally, the decline is smaller with YouGov than Find Out Now.
I've got a big slow-cooker chilli on the go to see me through the next few cold days. Lots of chorizo in it which is making the kitchen smell comforting already.
has to be steak pie on 1st January
Butcher pie with puff pastry.
(Actually we're having chicken stew for logistical reasons. The butcher pie (chicken and ham) was a few days back.)
Turnip soup for me.
I'm serious!
Excellent stuff, with a mutton [edit] shank. With bread, a complete meal.
The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai is the first Russian oil refinery to be hit by Ukrainian drones in 2026. Previously targeted in November and September of 2025, it has a capacity of 6.5 million tons and is the... 26th largest refinery in Russia with about 2% of total Russian capacity.
Also hit overnight was an oil terminal in Tartarstan that processes and stores crude oil from northern Russia oilfields. If the Ukrainians can damage that it might force some of the oil wells to shut down.
And once shut down, oil wells can take years to restart so Russia will not want to allow that.
Russia may not want =/= Russia can enforce.
This winter is going to be brutal for all concerned in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Ukrainians have endured 4 winters of it. Up to now, Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg have endured 0. The shock for metropolitan Russians will be severe.
Parts of Moscow and St.P spent last night without power, and at least four O&G facilities put on a free fireworks show.
My prediction for ‘26 is that ordinary metropolitan Russians finally start to feel that their country is at war.
My prediction for 2026 is that we'll be inundated with anniversaries: 10 years since Brexit; 100 years since the Great Depression; and that's just the big ones. 50 years since the long, hot summer of 76; 60 years since England won the World Cup (since renamed the Men's World Cup; no doubt soon to be renamed the Trump World Cup).
250 years of the US.
1783?
Yes, strictly speaking that's when the USA became a legal entity, not 1776.
I'm not sure the Founding Fathers would agree with you. Nevertheless 1776 is the fixed point date that everyone celebrates. The clue's in the July 4 national holiday.
Dominic Cummings on Whitehall's plan to destroy Nigel Farage
Cummings has warned Nigel Farage that Whitehall will break the law to prevent Reform winning power. Speaking on The Spectator‘s Quite Right! podcast, Cummings said: ‘They’ll leak medical records, they’ll leak tax records. They’ll bug his phone and leak that. They’ll do anything that they need to’."
Dominic Cummings on Whitehall's plan to destroy Nigel Farage
ominic Cummings has warned Nigel Farage that Whitehall will break the law to prevent Reform winning power. Speaking on The Spectator‘s Quite Right! podcast, Cummings said: ‘They’ll leak medical records, they’ll leak tax records. They’ll bug his phone and leak that. They’ll do anything that they need to’."
The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai is the first Russian oil refinery to be hit by Ukrainian drones in 2026. Previously targeted in November and September of 2025, it has a capacity of 6.5 million tons and is the... 26th largest refinery in Russia with about 2% of total Russian capacity.
Also hit overnight was an oil terminal in Tartarstan that processes and stores crude oil from northern Russia oilfields. If the Ukrainians can damage that it might force some of the oil wells to shut down.
And once shut down, oil wells can take years to restart so Russia will not want to allow that.
Russia may not want =/= Russia can enforce.
This winter is going to be brutal for all concerned in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Ukrainians have endured 4 winters of it. Up to now, Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg have endured 0. The shock for metropolitan Russians will be severe.
Parts of Moscow and St.P spent last night without power, and at least four O&G facilities put on a free fireworks show.
My prediction for ‘26 is that ordinary metropolitan Russians finally start to feel that their country is at war.
My prediction for 2026 is that we'll be inundated with anniversaries: 10 years since Brexit; 100 years since the Great Depression; and that's just the big ones. 50 years since the long, hot summer of 76; 60 years since England won the World Cup (since renamed the Men's World Cup; no doubt soon to be renamed the Trump World Cup).
250 years of the US.
1783?
Yes, strictly speaking that's when the USA became a legal entity, not 1776.
I'm not sure the Founding Fathers would agree with you. Nevertheless 1776 is the fixed point date that everyone celebrates. The clue's in the July 4 national holiday.
The 1783 Treaty of Paris was signed on September 3rd.
I'm not sure a "British Recognition of Your Independence Day" is going to catch on, but a party on September 3rd might ease the pains of the return to school, so we could give it a go?
With YouGov showing the LibDems in fifth, isn't the Davey out bet the one to take?
No, the LDs are also likely to make gains in English counties and districts which have elections and the wealthiest parts of London from the Tories and Labour and rural Scotland and Edinburgh in the May elections from the Tories and SNP
I don't think the Lib Dems will do particularly well at the locals, but the Tories and Labour will also struggle vis a vis Reform. Labour will do badly in Wales and Scotland but will weather the storm. 2027 will be far more significant.
I am expecting some pretty good LD gains in the Locals. LDs won more local byelections than any other party last year. I think that the Tories will not have a complete meltdown too, though will lose quite a few seats. It might be hard for Badenoch to spin it as "only a flesh wound", particularly with dismal performances in Wales and Scotland likely too.
The key for Kemi is to beat Labour on the NEV at the end of the night, even if Reform still win that and the Tories lose some seats if the Tories are ahead of Labour then that should secure Kemi's job
I remember last May Kemi turning up to celebrate the one win the Tories managed, while totally ignoring the hammering they'd suffered everywhere else.
Worked for Ken Baker in 1990.
Kemi can likely at least celebrate gains in Westminster and Barnet next year and a hold of Kensington and Chelsea, even if she sees losses of Tory councils to Reform and the LDs and NOC elsewhere and Tory MSPs at Holyrood and AMs in Wales losing their seats.
So Kemi will at least have made progress in wealthy West and North and Central London since she became leader, even if she sees losses elsewhere
Mystic Dom says Kemi will go in the summer, Jenrick will replace her who will 'sink like a stone' then the party will fragment with One Nation types like Gauke, Grieve, Barwell etc joining the LDs or even Starmer Labour and most joining Reform and others leaving politics.
We will see, I suspect if Kemi does go Cleverly would be more likely to replace her this side of a general election
So your dishevelled hero wasn’t so wise to bring this numpty - who in that video looks well past his best himself - into the heart of government? Just one of his ultimately calamitous misjudgements.
The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai is the first Russian oil refinery to be hit by Ukrainian drones in 2026. Previously targeted in November and September of 2025, it has a capacity of 6.5 million tons and is the... 26th largest refinery in Russia with about 2% of total Russian capacity.
Also hit overnight was an oil terminal in Tartarstan that processes and stores crude oil from northern Russia oilfields. If the Ukrainians can damage that it might force some of the oil wells to shut down.
And once shut down, oil wells can take years to restart so Russia will not want to allow that.
Russia may not want =/= Russia can enforce.
This winter is going to be brutal for all concerned in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Ukrainians have endured 4 winters of it. Up to now, Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg have endured 0. The shock for metropolitan Russians will be severe.
Parts of Moscow and St.P spent last night without power, and at least four O&G facilities put on a free fireworks show.
My prediction for ‘26 is that ordinary metropolitan Russians finally start to feel that their country is at war.
My prediction for 2026 is that we'll be inundated with anniversaries: 10 years since Brexit; 100 years since the Great Depression; and that's just the big ones. 50 years since the long, hot summer of 76; 60 years since England won the World Cup (since renamed the Men's World Cup; no doubt soon to be renamed the Trump World Cup).
250 years of the US.
1783?
Yes, strictly speaking that's when the USA became a legal entity, not 1776.
The Articles of Confederation established a national government before 1783, albeit a weak one.
Someone’s told Trump it’s 250 years this year, so don’t confuse him with facts. He won’t be President in 7 years time, anyway.
Hindenberg and de Valera were both Presidents at greater ages than that. And Hindenberg was elected to a semi-executive presidency when 84 and clearly suffering from some form of senile decay.
I don't think we should make assumptions about Trump.
I don't think that anyone is assuming that Trump has some form of senile decay. It is more an observable fact.
As of this moment, unless he does something to change the Constitution or the SC goes totally rogue, he can’t be President after January 2029. I suppose he might go for a coup but I doubt the military would back him. Sincerely hope I’m right on that!
I think it's also partly that the standard system isn't working for standard kids, and so the parents of normal kids are looking for ways to help their children. Pushing hard for SEND assistance is one of the avenues available.
20 years of experience tells me very firmly that you think wrong. You can barely get support for children whose dyslexia makes it nearly impossible for them to read and write without a legal dogfight, never mind anything else.
I remember working with one individual with severe palsy. He couldn't get any funding at all even though he could barely walk to a classroom and when he got there he worked so slowly he was always behind. In desperation his parents scraped together just enough money for private tutors to get him through A-levels. And we did, but it was damned hard. The county still didn't want to bloody know.
Inadequate provision for those with the greatest need is consistent with the argument I made.
Yes, potentially, but the point is unless you have great need you get pretty much nothing. Taz's thread suggests that used to be different in Wales, but it doesn't seem to have made much difference to costs which again agrees that claiming these things, even if it happens, is not leading to them getting extra support.
I would add, again, in 20 years of working with dyslexic students in unis and schools I've only come across one where a parent was acting as you describe with a child who clearly didn't have special needs. That's against hundreds who clearly did have them but were getting no support at all despite having pushy parents desperate to get help.
It’s worth pointing out that a diagnosis of ADHD or Dyslexia requires a medical professional.
So for the tidal wave of diagnoses to be fake, you’d require a large number of doctors to be liars and putting their careers on the line. Possibly prosecution for fraud - especially if private insurance is involved.
There's definitely a Yougov narrative of significant Reform slippage. They are an outlier and I don't know if I buy it to be honest. Yougov have tarnished their reputation a few too many times this year - frankly it has felt at times like they're attempting to influence opinion, not record it faithfully.
Tut-tut... impuning the principles of a BPC member organisation.
How sad to start the new year by being a tell tale tit.
Remember - a rogue poll(ster) is one you disagree with.
How much money and at what odds do you wish to bet on YouGov being wrong?
I think it's also partly that the standard system isn't working for standard kids, and so the parents of normal kids are looking for ways to help their children. Pushing hard for SEND assistance is one of the avenues available.
20 years of experience tells me very firmly that you think wrong. You can barely get support for children whose dyslexia makes it nearly impossible for them to read and write without a legal dogfight, never mind anything else.
I remember working with one individual with severe palsy. He couldn't get any funding at all even though he could barely walk to a classroom and when he got there he worked so slowly he was always behind. In desperation his parents scraped together just enough money for private tutors to get him through A-levels. And we did, but it was damned hard. The county still didn't want to bloody know.
Inadequate provision for those with the greatest need is consistent with the argument I made.
Yes, potentially, but the point is unless you have great need you get pretty much nothing. Taz's thread suggests that used to be different in Wales, but it doesn't seem to have made much difference to costs which again agrees that claiming these things, even if it happens, is not leading to them getting extra support.
I would add, again, in 20 years of working with dyslexic students in unis and schools I've only come across one where a parent was acting as you describe with a child who clearly didn't have special needs. That's against hundreds who clearly did have them but were getting no support at all despite having pushy parents desperate to get help.
It’s worth pointing out that a diagnosis of ADHD or Dyslexia requires a medical professional.
So for the tidal wave of diagnoses to be fake, you’d require a large number of doctors to be liars and putting their careers on the line. Possibly prosecution for fraud - especially if private insurance is involved.
Also worth pointing out the length of wait time to even get to see someone capable of making such a diagnosis. It's a heck of a lot of hassle for a free taxi ride.
I think it's also partly that the standard system isn't working for standard kids, and so the parents of normal kids are looking for ways to help their children. Pushing hard for SEND assistance is one of the avenues available.
20 years of experience tells me very firmly that you think wrong. You can barely get support for children whose dyslexia makes it nearly impossible for them to read and write without a legal dogfight, never mind anything else.
I remember working with one individual with severe palsy. He couldn't get any funding at all even though he could barely walk to a classroom and when he got there he worked so slowly he was always behind. In desperation his parents scraped together just enough money for private tutors to get him through A-levels. And we did, but it was damned hard. The county still didn't want to bloody know.
Inadequate provision for those with the greatest need is consistent with the argument I made.
Yes, potentially, but the point is unless you have great need you get pretty much nothing. Taz's thread suggests that used to be different in Wales, but it doesn't seem to have made much difference to costs which again agrees that claiming these things, even if it happens, is not leading to them getting extra support.
I would add, again, in 20 years of working with dyslexic students in unis and schools I've only come across one where a parent was acting as you describe with a child who clearly didn't have special needs. That's against hundreds who clearly did have them but were getting no support at all despite having pushy parents desperate to get help.
It’s worth pointing out that a diagnosis of ADHD or Dyslexia requires a medical professional.
So for the tidal wave of diagnoses to be fake, you’d require a large number of doctors to be liars and putting their careers on the line. Possibly prosecution for fraud - especially if private insurance is involved.
It was something which worried me years ago when, in the hospital where I then worked, we had a) a new paediatric consultant and b) a massive increase in prescriptions for ADHD medication. I wasn’t sure which was the chicken and which the egg.
I think it's also partly that the standard system isn't working for standard kids, and so the parents of normal kids are looking for ways to help their children. Pushing hard for SEND assistance is one of the avenues available.
20 years of experience tells me very firmly that you think wrong. You can barely get support for children whose dyslexia makes it nearly impossible for them to read and write without a legal dogfight, never mind anything else.
I remember working with one individual with severe palsy. He couldn't get any funding at all even though he could barely walk to a classroom and when he got there he worked so slowly he was always behind. In desperation his parents scraped together just enough money for private tutors to get him through A-levels. And we did, but it was damned hard. The county still didn't want to bloody know.
Inadequate provision for those with the greatest need is consistent with the argument I made.
Yes, potentially, but the point is unless you have great need you get pretty much nothing. Taz's thread suggests that used to be different in Wales, but it doesn't seem to have made much difference to costs which again agrees that claiming these things, even if it happens, is not leading to them getting extra support.
I would add, again, in 20 years of working with dyslexic students in unis and schools I've only come across one where a parent was acting as you describe with a child who clearly didn't have special needs. That's against hundreds who clearly did have them but were getting no support at all despite having pushy parents desperate to get help.
It’s worth pointing out that a diagnosis of ADHD or Dyslexia requires a medical professional.
So for the tidal wave of diagnoses to be fake, you’d require a large number of doctors to be liars and putting their careers on the line. Possibly prosecution for fraud - especially if private insurance is involved.
It was something which worried me years ago when, in the hospital where I then worked, we had a) a new paediatric consultant and b) a massive increase in prescriptions for ADHD medication. I wasn’t sure which was the chicken and which the egg.
I think it's also partly that the standard system isn't working for standard kids, and so the parents of normal kids are looking for ways to help their children. Pushing hard for SEND assistance is one of the avenues available.
20 years of experience tells me very firmly that you think wrong. You can barely get support for children whose dyslexia makes it nearly impossible for them to read and write without a legal dogfight, never mind anything else.
I remember working with one individual with severe palsy. He couldn't get any funding at all even though he could barely walk to a classroom and when he got there he worked so slowly he was always behind. In desperation his parents scraped together just enough money for private tutors to get him through A-levels. And we did, but it was damned hard. The county still didn't want to bloody know.
Inadequate provision for those with the greatest need is consistent with the argument I made.
Yes, potentially, but the point is unless you have great need you get pretty much nothing. Taz's thread suggests that used to be different in Wales, but it doesn't seem to have made much difference to costs which again agrees that claiming these things, even if it happens, is not leading to them getting extra support.
I would add, again, in 20 years of working with dyslexic students in unis and schools I've only come across one where a parent was acting as you describe with a child who clearly didn't have special needs. That's against hundreds who clearly did have them but were getting no support at all despite having pushy parents desperate to get help.
It’s worth pointing out that a diagnosis of ADHD or Dyslexia requires a medical professional.
So for the tidal wave of diagnoses to be fake, you’d require a large number of doctors to be liars and putting their careers on the line. Possibly prosecution for fraud - especially if private insurance is involved.
Some diagnoses are categorical and some are more on a sliding scale. For things like ADHD there isn't a categorical test. You can certainly find people who are definitely in the category and definitely not, but there will be a whole bunch of people where it is more debatable, a lot more than with something like a viral infection.
So it's not impossible that the threshold for diagnosis has been moved too far towards the not-ADHD end of the spectrum.
There's definitely a Yougov narrative of significant Reform slippage. They are an outlier and I don't know if I buy it to be honest. Yougov have tarnished their reputation a few too many times this year - frankly it has felt at times like they're attempting to influence opinion, not record it faithfully.
Tut-tut... impuning the principles of a BPC member organisation.
Now now. Lucky is just talking about his feelings. We should encourage this, and respect the validity of his lived experience.
PB brains trust: has anyone done an online speed awareness course? Three hours tomorrow. Should I drink beforehand? Will I be enthralled or bored?
Yes. They’re actually more interesting than you’d think. Nevertheless I did mine with my iPad camera focused on me, the iPad hung from the top of my PC screen so I could surf PB and the rest of the net on my PC whilst apparently focused on the guy doing the course.
I think it's also partly that the standard system isn't working for standard kids, and so the parents of normal kids are looking for ways to help their children. Pushing hard for SEND assistance is one of the avenues available.
20 years of experience tells me very firmly that you think wrong. You can barely get support for children whose dyslexia makes it nearly impossible for them to read and write without a legal dogfight, never mind anything else.
I remember working with one individual with severe palsy. He couldn't get any funding at all even though he could barely walk to a classroom and when he got there he worked so slowly he was always behind. In desperation his parents scraped together just enough money for private tutors to get him through A-levels. And we did, but it was damned hard. The county still didn't want to bloody know.
Inadequate provision for those with the greatest need is consistent with the argument I made.
Yes, potentially, but the point is unless you have great need you get pretty much nothing. Taz's thread suggests that used to be different in Wales, but it doesn't seem to have made much difference to costs which again agrees that claiming these things, even if it happens, is not leading to them getting extra support.
I would add, again, in 20 years of working with dyslexic students in unis and schools I've only come across one where a parent was acting as you describe with a child who clearly didn't have special needs. That's against hundreds who clearly did have them but were getting no support at all despite having pushy parents desperate to get help.
It’s worth pointing out that a diagnosis of ADHD or Dyslexia requires a medical professional.
So for the tidal wave of diagnoses to be fake, you’d require a large number of doctors to be liars and putting their careers on the line. Possibly prosecution for fraud - especially if private insurance is involved.
This whole issue is analogous to the disconnect between the massive increase in reported sexual assaults and the actual number of them, which remains consistent. The explanation is that the police/teachers/doctors have become much better at identifying these things and recording them - even if their ability to do something about it hasn't changed much.
The deeper problem is that our expectations have increased much faster than our economy/productivity has. That's why demands on the public sector are so overwhelming, whether it's someone like DavidL prosecuting more sex offenders, or my partner finding new ways to keep sick people alive, or my friend looking after severely autistic kids at her school (instead of teaching advanced higher maths to the smarter kids, like she's supposed to).
Dominic Cummings on Whitehall's plan to destroy Nigel Farage
ominic Cummings has warned Nigel Farage that Whitehall will break the law to prevent Reform winning power. Speaking on The Spectator‘s Quite Right! podcast, Cummings said: ‘They’ll leak medical records, they’ll leak tax records. They’ll bug his phone and leak that. They’ll do anything that they need to’."
Yes, it's interesting to note Cummings still has the same grasp of reality as he has always done.
Yes, it was "the blob" that leaked information that revealed just how inept and ridiculous a certain Dominic Cummings was. Though no one knows why his four years living in Russia interfered with the granting of his security clearance...
Reform have been quietly eroding for some time. Their support is to a very large extent driven by migration so, if the boats are ameliorated (a big if), then in conjunction with legal migration coming down I wonder if they could be down at 20-21% by year end.
I still haven't seen anything to suggest they're on course to win the next election.
This is my EMA of polls including the latest Find Out Now of 24th December. It shows Reform losing share to a reviving Tory party, and Greens continuing to take share from Labour.
Not sure it does show Reform losing share to a reviving Tory party tbh. There is a late uptick in Conservative Party support with a corresponding reduction in Reform support that might turn out to be a trend this year. Basically both parties flatlined in 2025, Reform at a high level and the Tories at a low level. Labour continued to plunge and the Greens surged however.
As ever, a change in vote share tells us nothing about how voters are moving between parties, or in and out of DK/won't vote. We would need to aggregate up all the tables over time - last time I checked these changes are primarily casued by the latter mechanism.
PB brains trust: has anyone done an online speed awareness course? Three hours tomorrow. Should I drink beforehand? Will I be enthralled or bored?
daughter did it , said it was excruiating and she wished she had taken the points. Though it has encouraged her to be watching speed limits a lot more as she never wants to have to do it again.
PB brains trust: has anyone done an online speed awareness course? Three hours tomorrow. Should I drink beforehand? Will I be enthralled or bored?
I did one in person a few months back and it was actually very interesting. Taught me a great many things about how to control a vehicle (and not just for speed, but for things like route planning) using modern aids I'd never even thought of before, plus a useful refresher on changes to the Highway Code.
PB brains trust: has anyone done an online speed awareness course? Three hours tomorrow. Should I drink beforehand? Will I be enthralled or bored?
Done 2. Best approach is definitely to take it seriously and with good humour. Everyone's in the same boat.
You will be generally slightly bored, but it's definitely better than ratcheting up points.
I looked up the numbers on the various "awareness courses". 2024 was just under 2 million, out of around 50 million license holders. It's currently the only serious continuing driver education game in town.
I did one perhaps 10 years ago now. Yes, I did learn some things, and relearn some other things.
A: It’s just like a normal one except your father opens all the doors for you
My favourite example is former Times editor William Rees-Mogg landing his Old Etonian son a job with the Hong Kong firm Lloyd George Management. Jacob R-M really did make his millions because, as the song has it, father knew Lloyd George (even if the grandson of the PM).
Rees Mogg was already working for Rothschilds in investment management before he got that job
Which spoils the joke but not the suggestion of parental assistance:-
What undoubtedly helped his chances was the fact that his father, William, was a long-standing friend of the firm’s founder, Lord Rothschild, having known him since the early 1970s. That William had himself been on the board of J. Rothschild Investment Management since 1987 cannot have done any harm to his son’s prospects either. Furthermore, William was on very good terms with Nils Taube, Lord Rothschild’s principal fund manager and the man who first taught Jacob Rees-Mogg how to manage money. Ashcroft, Michael. Jacob's Ladder: The Unauthorised Biography of Jacob Rees-Mogg . Biteback Publishing. Kindle Edition.
It should be noted that J Rothschild Investment Management went onto become Taube Hodson Stonex (THS) Partners, where I worked for more than a decade.
The rest of the Rothschild investment business went into St James's Place (formerly J Rothschild Assurance), and RIT (Rothschild Investment Trust).
I think it's also partly that the standard system isn't working for standard kids, and so the parents of normal kids are looking for ways to help their children. Pushing hard for SEND assistance is one of the avenues available.
20 years of experience tells me very firmly that you think wrong. You can barely get support for children whose dyslexia makes it nearly impossible for them to read and write without a legal dogfight, never mind anything else.
I remember working with one individual with severe palsy. He couldn't get any funding at all even though he could barely walk to a classroom and when he got there he worked so slowly he was always behind. In desperation his parents scraped together just enough money for private tutors to get him through A-levels. And we did, but it was damned hard. The county still didn't want to bloody know.
Inadequate provision for those with the greatest need is consistent with the argument I made.
Yes, potentially, but the point is unless you have great need you get pretty much nothing. Taz's thread suggests that used to be different in Wales, but it doesn't seem to have made much difference to costs which again agrees that claiming these things, even if it happens, is not leading to them getting extra support.
I would add, again, in 20 years of working with dyslexic students in unis and schools I've only come across one where a parent was acting as you describe with a child who clearly didn't have special needs. That's against hundreds who clearly did have them but were getting no support at all despite having pushy parents desperate to get help.
It’s worth pointing out that a diagnosis of ADHD or Dyslexia requires a medical professional.
So for the tidal wave of diagnoses to be fake, you’d require a large number of doctors to be liars and putting their careers on the line. Possibly prosecution for fraud - especially if private insurance is involved.
It was something which worried me years ago when, in the hospital where I then worked, we had a) a new paediatric consultant and b) a massive increase in prescriptions for ADHD medication. I wasn’t sure which was the chicken and which the egg.
Keep them waiting, and they’ll soon wander off?
If you don’t go looking for problems, they might not find you….
A: It’s just like a normal one except your father opens all the doors for you
My favourite example is former Times editor William Rees-Mogg landing his Old Etonian son a job with the Hong Kong firm Lloyd George Management. Jacob R-M really did make his millions because, as the song has it, father knew Lloyd George (even if the grandson of the PM).
Rees Mogg was already working for Rothschilds in investment management before he got that job
Which spoils the joke but not the suggestion of parental assistance:-
What undoubtedly helped his chances was the fact that his father, William, was a long-standing friend of the firm’s founder, Lord Rothschild, having known him since the early 1970s. That William had himself been on the board of J. Rothschild Investment Management since 1987 cannot have done any harm to his son’s prospects either. Furthermore, William was on very good terms with Nils Taube, Lord Rothschild’s principal fund manager and the man who first taught Jacob Rees-Mogg how to manage money. Ashcroft, Michael. Jacob's Ladder: The Unauthorised Biography of Jacob Rees-Mogg . Biteback Publishing. Kindle Edition.
It should be noted that J Rothschild Investment Management went onto become Taube Hodson Stonex (THS) Partners, where I worked for more than a decade.
The rest of the Rothschild investment business went into St James's Place (formerly J Rothschild Assurance), and RIT (Rothschild Investment Trust).
Nils was a wonderful wise old bird. I was privileged to know him and looked forward to long and well lubricated lunches where wisdom and good humour were equally mixed. He remembered pre-war Tallinn well and had fantastic family anecdotes about the leaders of the Estonian Republic visiting. He also had a map of the greatest territory held by the Estonian army on the wall of his office. I still miss our chats over a decade since he left us.
I think it's also partly that the standard system isn't working for standard kids, and so the parents of normal kids are looking for ways to help their children. Pushing hard for SEND assistance is one of the avenues available.
20 years of experience tells me very firmly that you think wrong. You can barely get support for children whose dyslexia makes it nearly impossible for them to read and write without a legal dogfight, never mind anything else.
I remember working with one individual with severe palsy. He couldn't get any funding at all even though he could barely walk to a classroom and when he got there he worked so slowly he was always behind. In desperation his parents scraped together just enough money for private tutors to get him through A-levels. And we did, but it was damned hard. The county still didn't want to bloody know.
Inadequate provision for those with the greatest need is consistent with the argument I made.
Yes, potentially, but the point is unless you have great need you get pretty much nothing. Taz's thread suggests that used to be different in Wales, but it doesn't seem to have made much difference to costs which again agrees that claiming these things, even if it happens, is not leading to them getting extra support.
I would add, again, in 20 years of working with dyslexic students in unis and schools I've only come across one where a parent was acting as you describe with a child who clearly didn't have special needs. That's against hundreds who clearly did have them but were getting no support at all despite having pushy parents desperate to get help.
It’s worth pointing out that a diagnosis of ADHD or Dyslexia requires a medical professional.
So for the tidal wave of diagnoses to be fake, you’d require a large number of doctors to be liars and putting their careers on the line. Possibly prosecution for fraud - especially if private insurance is involved.
Some diagnoses are categorical and some are more on a sliding scale. For things like ADHD there isn't a categorical test. You can certainly find people who are definitely in the category and definitely not, but there will be a whole bunch of people where it is more debatable, a lot more than with something like a viral infection.
So it's not impossible that the threshold for diagnosis has been moved too far towards the not-ADHD end of the spectrum.
As against that, unless ADHD is very severe it's generally a medical (drugs) rather than an educational (e.g. support, specialist settings) plan to deal with it. So that wouldn't show on the SEND budget.
Reform have been quietly eroding for some time. Their support is to a very large extent driven by migration so, if the boats are ameliorated (a big if), then in conjunction with legal migration coming down I wonder if they could be down at 20-21% by year end.
I still haven't seen anything to suggest they're on course to win the next election.
This is my EMA of polls including the latest Find Out Now of 24th December. It shows Reform losing share to a reviving Tory party, and Greens continuing to take share from Labour.
Not sure it does show Reform losing share to a reviving Tory party tbh. There is a late uptick in Conservative Party support with a corresponding reduction in Reform support that might turn out to be a trend this year. Basically both parties flatlined in 2025, Reform at a high level and the Tories at a low level. Labour continued to plunge and the Greens surged however.
As ever, a change in vote share tells us nothing about how voters are moving between parties, or in and out of DK/won't vote. We would need to aggregate up all the tables over time - last time I checked these changes are primarily casued by the latter mechanism.
I read that too. The Reform support has held steady in number terms but some previous Conservative voters who moved into Don't Know are now prepared to recommit, shifting the vote shares a little. That's useful for the Conservatives but on its own it's a one-off adjustment. The Tories are too far behind Reform to trouble them unless significant numbers of Tory to Reform switchers switch back again. AFAIK that's not happening right now.
PB brains trust: has anyone done an online speed awareness course? Three hours tomorrow. Should I drink beforehand? Will I be enthralled or bored?
Done 2. Best approach is definitely to take it seriously and with good humour. Everyone's in the same boat.
You will be generally slightly bored, but it's definitely better than ratcheting up points.
I'd echo that. I've also done two and concur with occasionalranter's view/advice.
I did an in person course a long long time ago and it was excellent as well as saving me 3 points. I am doing the advanced drivers course currently and thoroughly recommend that. You don't need any special skills.
I think it's also partly that the standard system isn't working for standard kids, and so the parents of normal kids are looking for ways to help their children. Pushing hard for SEND assistance is one of the avenues available.
20 years of experience tells me very firmly that you think wrong. You can barely get support for children whose dyslexia makes it nearly impossible for them to read and write without a legal dogfight, never mind anything else.
I remember working with one individual with severe palsy. He couldn't get any funding at all even though he could barely walk to a classroom and when he got there he worked so slowly he was always behind. In desperation his parents scraped together just enough money for private tutors to get him through A-levels. And we did, but it was damned hard. The county still didn't want to bloody know.
Inadequate provision for those with the greatest need is consistent with the argument I made.
Yes, potentially, but the point is unless you have great need you get pretty much nothing. Taz's thread suggests that used to be different in Wales, but it doesn't seem to have made much difference to costs which again agrees that claiming these things, even if it happens, is not leading to them getting extra support.
I would add, again, in 20 years of working with dyslexic students in unis and schools I've only come across one where a parent was acting as you describe with a child who clearly didn't have special needs. That's against hundreds who clearly did have them but were getting no support at all despite having pushy parents desperate to get help.
It’s worth pointing out that a diagnosis of ADHD or Dyslexia requires a medical professional.
So for the tidal wave of diagnoses to be fake, you’d require a large number of doctors to be liars and putting their careers on the line. Possibly prosecution for fraud - especially if private insurance is involved.
Some diagnoses are categorical and some are more on a sliding scale. For things like ADHD there isn't a categorical test. You can certainly find people who are definitely in the category and definitely not, but there will be a whole bunch of people where it is more debatable, a lot more than with something like a viral infection.
So it's not impossible that the threshold for diagnosis has been moved too far towards the not-ADHD end of the spectrum.
Having gone through the diagnosis process with my own children, and their reaction to the prescribed medication… In times past, they would have just been shoved in the corner/battled through doing what they could
The question here, for me, is how low the symptom bar goes for a diagnosis.
I think it's also partly that the standard system isn't working for standard kids, and so the parents of normal kids are looking for ways to help their children. Pushing hard for SEND assistance is one of the avenues available.
20 years of experience tells me very firmly that you think wrong. You can barely get support for children whose dyslexia makes it nearly impossible for them to read and write without a legal dogfight, never mind anything else.
I remember working with one individual with severe palsy. He couldn't get any funding at all even though he could barely walk to a classroom and when he got there he worked so slowly he was always behind. In desperation his parents scraped together just enough money for private tutors to get him through A-levels. And we did, but it was damned hard. The county still didn't want to bloody know.
Inadequate provision for those with the greatest need is consistent with the argument I made.
Yes, potentially, but the point is unless you have great need you get pretty much nothing. Taz's thread suggests that used to be different in Wales, but it doesn't seem to have made much difference to costs which again agrees that claiming these things, even if it happens, is not leading to them getting extra support.
I would add, again, in 20 years of working with dyslexic students in unis and schools I've only come across one where a parent was acting as you describe with a child who clearly didn't have special needs. That's against hundreds who clearly did have them but were getting no support at all despite having pushy parents desperate to get help.
It’s worth pointing out that a diagnosis of ADHD or Dyslexia requires a medical professional.
So for the tidal wave of diagnoses to be fake, you’d require a large number of doctors to be liars and putting their careers on the line. Possibly prosecution for fraud - especially if private insurance is involved.
Some diagnoses are categorical and some are more on a sliding scale. For things like ADHD there isn't a categorical test. You can certainly find people who are definitely in the category and definitely not, but there will be a whole bunch of people where it is more debatable, a lot more than with something like a viral infection.
So it's not impossible that the threshold for diagnosis has been moved too far towards the not-ADHD end of the spectrum.
As against that, unless ADHD is very severe it's generally a medical (drugs) rather than an educational (e.g. support, specialist settings) plan to deal with it. So that wouldn't show on the SEND budget.
Dyslexia is a more complex one.
Isn’t Dyslexia much easier to diagnose? As in, more definite, quantifiable issues/effects?
I think it's also partly that the standard system isn't working for standard kids, and so the parents of normal kids are looking for ways to help their children. Pushing hard for SEND assistance is one of the avenues available.
20 years of experience tells me very firmly that you think wrong. You can barely get support for children whose dyslexia makes it nearly impossible for them to read and write without a legal dogfight, never mind anything else.
I remember working with one individual with severe palsy. He couldn't get any funding at all even though he could barely walk to a classroom and when he got there he worked so slowly he was always behind. In desperation his parents scraped together just enough money for private tutors to get him through A-levels. And we did, but it was damned hard. The county still didn't want to bloody know.
Inadequate provision for those with the greatest need is consistent with the argument I made.
Yes, potentially, but the point is unless you have great need you get pretty much nothing. Taz's thread suggests that used to be different in Wales, but it doesn't seem to have made much difference to costs which again agrees that claiming these things, even if it happens, is not leading to them getting extra support.
I would add, again, in 20 years of working with dyslexic students in unis and schools I've only come across one where a parent was acting as you describe with a child who clearly didn't have special needs. That's against hundreds who clearly did have them but were getting no support at all despite having pushy parents desperate to get help.
It’s worth pointing out that a diagnosis of ADHD or Dyslexia requires a medical professional.
So for the tidal wave of diagnoses to be fake, you’d require a large number of doctors to be liars and putting their careers on the line. Possibly prosecution for fraud - especially if private insurance is involved.
Some diagnoses are categorical and some are more on a sliding scale. For things like ADHD there isn't a categorical test. You can certainly find people who are definitely in the category and definitely not, but there will be a whole bunch of people where it is more debatable, a lot more than with something like a viral infection.
So it's not impossible that the threshold for diagnosis has been moved too far towards the not-ADHD end of the spectrum.
The big problem is that ADD meds like Ritalin will tend to improve academic performance in most kids.
My doctor in the US cheerfully prescribed a very low dose for me to help me get onto new timezones when traveling. A single 5mg tablet will get me fully awake, focused and able to work, even if I've just gotten off a plane with three hours of interrupted sleep and my body thinks it's 2am.
Someone who was personally involved in screwing up on all the measures he mentions in the video when previously in government, wants us to believe he has all the answers.
I think it's also partly that the standard system isn't working for standard kids, and so the parents of normal kids are looking for ways to help their children. Pushing hard for SEND assistance is one of the avenues available.
20 years of experience tells me very firmly that you think wrong. You can barely get support for children whose dyslexia makes it nearly impossible for them to read and write without a legal dogfight, never mind anything else.
I remember working with one individual with severe palsy. He couldn't get any funding at all even though he could barely walk to a classroom and when he got there he worked so slowly he was always behind. In desperation his parents scraped together just enough money for private tutors to get him through A-levels. And we did, but it was damned hard. The county still didn't want to bloody know.
Inadequate provision for those with the greatest need is consistent with the argument I made.
Yes, potentially, but the point is unless you have great need you get pretty much nothing. Taz's thread suggests that used to be different in Wales, but it doesn't seem to have made much difference to costs which again agrees that claiming these things, even if it happens, is not leading to them getting extra support.
I would add, again, in 20 years of working with dyslexic students in unis and schools I've only come across one where a parent was acting as you describe with a child who clearly didn't have special needs. That's against hundreds who clearly did have them but were getting no support at all despite having pushy parents desperate to get help.
It’s worth pointing out that a diagnosis of ADHD or Dyslexia requires a medical professional.
So for the tidal wave of diagnoses to be fake, you’d require a large number of doctors to be liars and putting their careers on the line. Possibly prosecution for fraud - especially if private insurance is involved.
Some diagnoses are categorical and some are more on a sliding scale. For things like ADHD there isn't a categorical test. You can certainly find people who are definitely in the category and definitely not, but there will be a whole bunch of people where it is more debatable, a lot more than with something like a viral infection.
So it's not impossible that the threshold for diagnosis has been moved too far towards the not-ADHD end of the spectrum.
Having gone through the diagnosis process with my own children, and their reaction to the prescribed medication… In times past, they would have just been shoved in the corner/battled through doing what they could
The question here, for me, is how low the symptom bar goes for a diagnosis.
side effects of the medication can be worse than the ADHD
I think it's also partly that the standard system isn't working for standard kids, and so the parents of normal kids are looking for ways to help their children. Pushing hard for SEND assistance is one of the avenues available.
20 years of experience tells me very firmly that you think wrong. You can barely get support for children whose dyslexia makes it nearly impossible for them to read and write without a legal dogfight, never mind anything else.
I remember working with one individual with severe palsy. He couldn't get any funding at all even though he could barely walk to a classroom and when he got there he worked so slowly he was always behind. In desperation his parents scraped together just enough money for private tutors to get him through A-levels. And we did, but it was damned hard. The county still didn't want to bloody know.
Inadequate provision for those with the greatest need is consistent with the argument I made.
Yes, potentially, but the point is unless you have great need you get pretty much nothing. Taz's thread suggests that used to be different in Wales, but it doesn't seem to have made much difference to costs which again agrees that claiming these things, even if it happens, is not leading to them getting extra support.
I would add, again, in 20 years of working with dyslexic students in unis and schools I've only come across one where a parent was acting as you describe with a child who clearly didn't have special needs. That's against hundreds who clearly did have them but were getting no support at all despite having pushy parents desperate to get help.
It’s worth pointing out that a diagnosis of ADHD or Dyslexia requires a medical professional.
So for the tidal wave of diagnoses to be fake, you’d require a large number of doctors to be liars and putting their careers on the line. Possibly prosecution for fraud - especially if private insurance is involved.
Some diagnoses are categorical and some are more on a sliding scale. For things like ADHD there isn't a categorical test. You can certainly find people who are definitely in the category and definitely not, but there will be a whole bunch of people where it is more debatable, a lot more than with something like a viral infection.
So it's not impossible that the threshold for diagnosis has been moved too far towards the not-ADHD end of the spectrum.
As against that, unless ADHD is very severe it's generally a medical (drugs) rather than an educational (e.g. support, specialist settings) plan to deal with it. So that wouldn't show on the SEND budget.
Dyslexia is a more complex one.
Isn’t Dyslexia much easier to diagnose? As in, more definite, quantifiable issues/effects?
Depends on the form it takes. If it's just issues with reading and writing it tends to be more noticeable than the wider 'tendencies' which can take the form of (say) organisational difficulties.
I think it's also partly that the standard system isn't working for standard kids, and so the parents of normal kids are looking for ways to help their children. Pushing hard for SEND assistance is one of the avenues available.
20 years of experience tells me very firmly that you think wrong. You can barely get support for children whose dyslexia makes it nearly impossible for them to read and write without a legal dogfight, never mind anything else.
I remember working with one individual with severe palsy. He couldn't get any funding at all even though he could barely walk to a classroom and when he got there he worked so slowly he was always behind. In desperation his parents scraped together just enough money for private tutors to get him through A-levels. And we did, but it was damned hard. The county still didn't want to bloody know.
Inadequate provision for those with the greatest need is consistent with the argument I made.
Yes, potentially, but the point is unless you have great need you get pretty much nothing. Taz's thread suggests that used to be different in Wales, but it doesn't seem to have made much difference to costs which again agrees that claiming these things, even if it happens, is not leading to them getting extra support.
I would add, again, in 20 years of working with dyslexic students in unis and schools I've only come across one where a parent was acting as you describe with a child who clearly didn't have special needs. That's against hundreds who clearly did have them but were getting no support at all despite having pushy parents desperate to get help.
It’s worth pointing out that a diagnosis of ADHD or Dyslexia requires a medical professional.
So for the tidal wave of diagnoses to be fake, you’d require a large number of doctors to be liars and putting their careers on the line. Possibly prosecution for fraud - especially if private insurance is involved.
Some diagnoses are categorical and some are more on a sliding scale. For things like ADHD there isn't a categorical test. You can certainly find people who are definitely in the category and definitely not, but there will be a whole bunch of people where it is more debatable, a lot more than with something like a viral infection.
So it's not impossible that the threshold for diagnosis has been moved too far towards the not-ADHD end of the spectrum.
Having gone through the diagnosis process with my own children, and their reaction to the prescribed medication… In times past, they would have just been shoved in the corner/battled through doing what they could
The question here, for me, is how low the symptom bar goes for a diagnosis.
side effects of the medication can be worse than the ADHD
Yes - part of the process is finding which medication is actually effective and produces the lowest side effects. Then the body reacts to it and the dosage needs to change. Not simple.
Someone who was personally involved in screwing up on all the measures he mentions in the video when previously in government, wants us to believe he has all the answers.
There was a Home Office Minister called Jobert Renrick who put all the asylum seekers into 5* hotels. Different chap I believe.
Someone who was personally involved in screwing up on all the measures he mentions in the video when previously in government, wants us to believe he has all the answers.
There was a Home Office Minister called Jobert Renrick who put all the asylum seekers into 5* hotels. Different chap I believe.
I thought all the jacuzzis were closed which makes them “not 5* hotels”?
Someone who was personally involved in screwing up on all the measures he mentions in the video when previously in government, wants us to believe he has all the answers.
There was a Home Office Minister called Jobert Renrick who put all the asylum seekers into 5* hotels. Different chap I believe.
I thought all the jacuzzis were closed which makes them “not 5* hotels”?
Not according to GB News and the Daily Mail. I believe those hotels without a spa had one fitted by the Labour Government when they arrived in office, at the same time they handed out the Motability Maseratis.
Someone who was personally involved in screwing up on all the measures he mentions in the video when previously in government, wants us to believe he has all the answers.
There was a Home Office Minister called Jobert Renrick who put all the asylum seekers into 5* hotels. Different chap I believe.
I thought all the jacuzzis were closed which makes them “not 5* hotels”?
Not according to GB News and the Daily Mail. I believe those hotels without a spa had one fitted by the Labour Government when they arrived in office, at the same time they handed out the Motability Maseratis.
Actually the outrage was that Labour stopped Motability Maseratis, denying choice to people who don't actually need the grant money.
Someone who was personally involved in screwing up on all the measures he mentions in the video when previously in government, wants us to believe he has all the answers.
There was a Home Office Minister called Jobert Renrick who put all the asylum seekers into 5* hotels. Different chap I believe.
That's a rubbish limerick. Let me try to improve;
There was a Home Office Minister called Jenrick He was a bit of a jab in the arm Nonetheless he went too far In the future he'll be mainly at the bar That jumped up complete Richard.
Someone who was personally involved in screwing up on all the measures he mentions in the video when previously in government, wants us to believe he has all the answers.
There was a Home Office Minister called Jobert Renrick who put all the asylum seekers into 5* hotels. Different chap I believe.
I thought all the jacuzzis were closed which makes them “not 5* hotels”?
Not according to GB News and the Daily Mail. I believe those hotels without a spa had one fitted by the Labour Government when they arrived in office, at the same time they handed out the Motability Maseratis.
Motability Maseratis - poppycock.
Motability Bugattis - obviously.
What kind of a CommieSymp are you?
I seem to recall a Frank & Earnest debate with several hundred SeanTs - trying to get him to admit that the hotels were all budget…
Personally, I think the hotel thing is another example of how Process pushes society into poor solutions. Every other idea for storing migrants was tried. Each was defeated by legal process. The hotels were used because the legal advice was that no Process was required to use them - simply block book for x years.
We see similar in things such as mass battery storage. It may not be the best, cheapest etc. but there is next to nothing that can stop you putting a couple of ISO containers on your land.
Proposals are at the considered by ministers stage so don't hold your breath.
The current levels are simply unaffordable and not always needed, but there would be massive outcry - this will not happen.
Taking a 500ft view, the use of taxis for school transport in particular seems worthy of investigation.
I’m not saying it’s Minnesotan daycare levels of ‘mismanagement’, but it would be good to know who’s running the taxi companies that benefit and if the job of getting kids to school could be done more efficiently.
Ferrying kids to school could be done a bit more cheaply but there are fundamental constraints. First, children need to arrive at school at the same time, so there is a morning peak in demand. Second, they need driving home again. Third, this needs to happen every school day. Fourth, at least some drivers will need special training and/or equipment and/or DBS checks.
So for any one taxi, that is one or two hours in the morning, and the same in the afternoon, for most of the year, and it will need to be booked in advance. Four hours a day, an hour for lunch, it is almost a full-time job. It's a seller's market.
Councils might be able to save money by running specialist minibuses but because of parental choice, kids living in one place don't all go to the nearest school (one of my many recurring rants) so it will not be just the one minibus. Savings would be limited even if politics and belief in the preternatural efficiency of private sector solutions (viz taxis) were not factors.
You can figure out the most efficient route to get children to the relevant school. Some kids will have to get picked up earlier and spend longer on the bus. The issue is the unreasonable demands - door to door service with no waiting time - and the fact that councils accommodate.
Someone who was personally involved in screwing up on all the measures he mentions in the video when previously in government, wants us to believe he has all the answers.
There was a Home Office Minister called Jobert Renrick who put all the asylum seekers into 5* hotels. Different chap I believe.
That's a rubbish limerick. Let me try to improve;
There was a Home Office Minister called Jenrick He was a bit of a jab in the arm Nonetheless he went too far In the future he'll be mainly at the bar That jumped up complete Richard.
Oh, dear, surely we can improve on that.
There was once a young minister called Jenrick Whose policies were - who would have kenned it? Exactly the same As the ones he defamed: And his political career was thus ended.
The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai is the first Russian oil refinery to be hit by Ukrainian drones in 2026. Previously targeted in November and September of 2025, it has a capacity of 6.5 million tons and is the... 26th largest refinery in Russia with about 2% of total Russian capacity.
Also hit overnight was an oil terminal in Tartarstan that processes and stores crude oil from northern Russia oilfields. If the Ukrainians can damage that it might force some of the oil wells to shut down.
And once shut down, oil wells can take years to restart so Russia will not want to allow that.
Russia may not want =/= Russia can enforce.
This winter is going to be brutal for all concerned in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Ukrainians have endured 4 winters of it. Up to now, Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg have endured 0. The shock for metropolitan Russians will be severe.
Parts of Moscow and St.P spent last night without power, and at least four O&G facilities put on a free fireworks show.
My prediction for ‘26 is that ordinary metropolitan Russians finally start to feel that their country is at war.
My prediction for 2026 is that we'll be inundated with anniversaries: 10 years since Brexit; 100 years since the Great Depression; and that's just the big ones. 50 years since the long, hot summer of 76; 60 years since England won the World Cup (since renamed the Men's World Cup; no doubt soon to be renamed the Trump World Cup).
The Great Depression began, on the earliest possible date, in 1929. Do you mean the General Strike?
Given how iconic the term “depression” is it’s interesting that Hoover coined the phrase because he was looking for a better term than “panic”
Someone who was personally involved in screwing up on all the measures he mentions in the video when previously in government, wants us to believe he has all the answers.
There was a Home Office Minister called Jobert Renrick who put all the asylum seekers into 5* hotels. Different chap I believe.
That's a rubbish limerick. Let me try to improve;
There was a Home Office Minister called Jenrick He was a bit of a jab in the arm Nonetheless he went too far In the future he'll be mainly at the bar That jumped up complete Richard.
Oh, dear, surely we can improve on that.
There was once a young minister called Jenrick Whose policies were - who would have kenned it? Exactly the same As the ones he defamed: And his political career was thus ended.
That's the spirit. If only @Mexicanpete had our skills!
Proposals are at the considered by ministers stage so don't hold your breath.
The current levels are simply unaffordable and not always needed, but there would be massive outcry - this will not happen.
Taking a 500ft view, the use of taxis for school transport in particular seems worthy of investigation.
I’m not saying it’s Minnesotan daycare levels of ‘mismanagement’, but it would be good to know who’s running the taxi companies that benefit and if the job of getting kids to school could be done more efficiently.
Ferrying kids to school could be done a bit more cheaply but there are fundamental constraints. First, children need to arrive at school at the same time, so there is a morning peak in demand. Second, they need driving home again. Third, this needs to happen every school day. Fourth, at least some drivers will need special training and/or equipment and/or DBS checks.
So for any one taxi, that is one or two hours in the morning, and the same in the afternoon, for most of the year, and it will need to be booked in advance. Four hours a day, an hour for lunch, it is almost a full-time job. It's a seller's market.
Councils might be able to save money by running specialist minibuses but because of parental choice, kids living in one place don't all go to the nearest school (one of my many recurring rants) so it will not be just the one minibus. Savings would be limited even if politics and belief in the preternatural efficiency of private sector solutions (viz taxis) were not factors.
You can figure out the most efficient route to get children to the relevant school. Some kids will have to get picked up earlier and spend longer on the bus. The issue is the unreasonable demands - door to door service with no waiting time - and the fact that councils accommodate.
A considerable number of private schools run school buses. These are quite popular in West London, judging from the local drop off/pickup points.
There’s obviously the issue of whether the SEND kids can adapt to it. Some will love it - years ago, my ex hand a daughter who had quite severe issues, requiring a specialist school. The child adored her school bus - which stopped directly outside the house.
Proposals are at the considered by ministers stage so don't hold your breath.
The current levels are simply unaffordable and not always needed, but there would be massive outcry - this will not happen.
Taking a 500ft view, the use of taxis for school transport in particular seems worthy of investigation.
I’m not saying it’s Minnesotan daycare levels of ‘mismanagement’, but it would be good to know who’s running the taxi companies that benefit and if the job of getting kids to school could be done more efficiently.
Ferrying kids to school could be done a bit more cheaply but there are fundamental constraints. First, children need to arrive at school at the same time, so there is a morning peak in demand. Second, they need driving home again. Third, this needs to happen every school day. Fourth, at least some drivers will need special training and/or equipment and/or DBS checks.
So for any one taxi, that is one or two hours in the morning, and the same in the afternoon, for most of the year, and it will need to be booked in advance. Four hours a day, an hour for lunch, it is almost a full-time job. It's a seller's market.
Councils might be able to save money by running specialist minibuses but because of parental choice, kids living in one place don't all go to the nearest school (one of my many recurring rants) so it will not be just the one minibus. Savings would be limited even if politics and belief in the preternatural efficiency of private sector solutions (viz taxis) were not factors.
You can figure out the most efficient route to get children to the relevant school. Some kids will have to get picked up earlier and spend longer on the bus. The issue is the unreasonable demands - door to door service with no waiting time - and the fact that councils accommodate.
Small, but perfectly formed difficulty. Many of these children refuse to get on a bus, or interact in any way with other people, children and adults. Sometimes they're down, effectively, to inter-acting with just one parent.
Someone who was personally involved in screwing up on all the measures he mentions in the video when previously in government, wants us to believe he has all the answers.
There was a Home Office Minister called Jobert Renrick who put all the asylum seekers into 5* hotels. Different chap I believe.
I thought all the jacuzzis were closed which makes them “not 5* hotels”?
Not according to GB News and the Daily Mail. I believe those hotels without a spa had one fitted by the Labour Government when they arrived in office, at the same time they handed out the Motability Maseratis.
Motability Maseratis - poppycock.
Motability Bugattis - obviously.
What kind of a CommieSymp are you?
I seem to recall a Frank & Earnest debate with several hundred SeanTs - trying to get him to admit that the hotels were all budget…
Personally, I think the hotel thing is another example of how Process pushes society into poor solutions. Every other idea for storing migrants was tried. Each was defeated by legal process. The hotels were used because the legal advice was that no Process was required to use them - simply block book for x years.
We see similar in things such as mass battery storage. It may not be the best, cheapest etc. but there is next to nothing that can stop you putting a couple of ISO containers on your land.
Clearly those complaining about luxury hotels accommodating asylum seekers have never stayed at the Macclesfield Travelodge.
Slightly paraphrasing your comment, could it be that hotels are actually the optimal short term accommodation for asylum seekers, given they need to go somewhere? Hotels are highly space efficient bed factories for transient populations. Importantly for a controversial policy, they already exist so impacts on other people are minimised. I suspect if contracts are managed properly that they are also cost effective.
Someone who was personally involved in screwing up on all the measures he mentions in the video when previously in government, wants us to believe he has all the answers.
There was a Home Office Minister called Jobert Renrick who put all the asylum seekers into 5* hotels. Different chap I believe.
I thought all the jacuzzis were closed which makes them “not 5* hotels”?
Not according to GB News and the Daily Mail. I believe those hotels without a spa had one fitted by the Labour Government when they arrived in office, at the same time they handed out the Motability Maseratis.
Motability Maseratis - poppycock.
Motability Bugattis - obviously.
What kind of a CommieSymp are you?
I seem to recall a Frank & Earnest debate with several hundred SeanTs - trying to get him to admit that the hotels were all budget…
Personally, I think the hotel thing is another example of how Process pushes society into poor solutions. Every other idea for storing migrants was tried. Each was defeated by legal process. The hotels were used because the legal advice was that no Process was required to use them - simply block book for x years.
We see similar in things such as mass battery storage. It may not be the best, cheapest etc. but there is next to nothing that can stop you putting a couple of ISO containers on your land.
I think you've missed the point. At no point did anyone called Robert Jenrick send tens of thousands of asylum seekers to hotels. He sent them all to live in cardboard boxes on the fast lane of motorways. When he was boasting about how many asylum seekers he had sent to live in cardboard boxes on the motorway he accidentally said hotels. An easy mistake to make.
Is it Limerick time? I knew an ex-colleague who moved there and he always called it "Stab City".
There once was a MP called Davey Who asked if one day PM said "Maybe" He won 500 seats Which was a bit of a feat And ended up having chips with some gravy
Someone who was personally involved in screwing up on all the measures he mentions in the video when previously in government, wants us to believe he has all the answers.
There was a Home Office Minister called Jobert Renrick who put all the asylum seekers into 5* hotels. Different chap I believe.
I thought all the jacuzzis were closed which makes them “not 5* hotels”?
Not according to GB News and the Daily Mail. I believe those hotels without a spa had one fitted by the Labour Government when they arrived in office, at the same time they handed out the Motability Maseratis.
Motability Maseratis - poppycock.
Motability Bugattis - obviously.
What kind of a CommieSymp are you?
I seem to recall a Frank & Earnest debate with several hundred SeanTs - trying to get him to admit that the hotels were all budget…
Personally, I think the hotel thing is another example of how Process pushes society into poor solutions. Every other idea for storing migrants was tried. Each was defeated by legal process. The hotels were used because the legal advice was that no Process was required to use them - simply block book for x years.
We see similar in things such as mass battery storage. It may not be the best, cheapest etc. but there is next to nothing that can stop you putting a couple of ISO containers on your land.
Clearly those complaining about luxury hotels accommodating asylum seekers have never stayed at the Macclesfield Travelodge.
Slightly paraphrasing your comment, could it be that hotels are actually the optimal short term accommodation for asylum seekers, given they need to go somewhere? Hotels are highly space efficient bed factories for transient populations. Importantly for a controversial policy, they already exist so impacts on other people are minimised. I suspect if contracts are managed properly that they are also cost effective.
Why the hell is anyone fretting about hotels.
A govt scheme is giving money to councils to build social housing for Asylum seekers.
At least five have volunteered (Brighton, of course, being one): with up to 200 interested.
Proposals are at the considered by ministers stage so don't hold your breath.
The current levels are simply unaffordable and not always needed, but there would be massive outcry - this will not happen.
Taking a 500ft view, the use of taxis for school transport in particular seems worthy of investigation.
I’m not saying it’s Minnesotan daycare levels of ‘mismanagement’, but it would be good to know who’s running the taxi companies that benefit and if the job of getting kids to school could be done more efficiently.
Ferrying kids to school could be done a bit more cheaply but there are fundamental constraints. First, children need to arrive at school at the same time, so there is a morning peak in demand. Second, they need driving home again. Third, this needs to happen every school day. Fourth, at least some drivers will need special training and/or equipment and/or DBS checks.
So for any one taxi, that is one or two hours in the morning, and the same in the afternoon, for most of the year, and it will need to be booked in advance. Four hours a day, an hour for lunch, it is almost a full-time job. It's a seller's market.
Councils might be able to save money by running specialist minibuses but because of parental choice, kids living in one place don't all go to the nearest school (one of my many recurring rants) so it will not be just the one minibus. Savings would be limited even if politics and belief in the preternatural efficiency of private sector solutions (viz taxis) were not factors.
You can figure out the most efficient route to get children to the relevant school. Some kids will have to get picked up earlier and spend longer on the bus. The issue is the unreasonable demands - door to door service with no waiting time - and the fact that councils accommodate.
Small, but perfectly formed difficulty. Many of these children refuse to get on a bus, or interact in any way with other people, children and adults. Sometimes they're down, effectively, to inter-acting with just one parent.
Someone who was personally involved in screwing up on all the measures he mentions in the video when previously in government, wants us to believe he has all the answers.
There was a Home Office Minister called Jobert Renrick who put all the asylum seekers into 5* hotels. Different chap I believe.
I thought all the jacuzzis were closed which makes them “not 5* hotels”?
Not according to GB News and the Daily Mail. I believe those hotels without a spa had one fitted by the Labour Government when they arrived in office, at the same time they handed out the Motability Maseratis.
Motability Maseratis - poppycock.
Motability Bugattis - obviously.
What kind of a CommieSymp are you?
I seem to recall a Frank & Earnest debate with several hundred SeanTs - trying to get him to admit that the hotels were all budget…
Personally, I think the hotel thing is another example of how Process pushes society into poor solutions. Every other idea for storing migrants was tried. Each was defeated by legal process. The hotels were used because the legal advice was that no Process was required to use them - simply block book for x years.
We see similar in things such as mass battery storage. It may not be the best, cheapest etc. but there is next to nothing that can stop you putting a couple of ISO containers on your land.
Clearly those complaining about luxury hotels accommodating asylum seekers have never stayed at the Macclesfield Travelodge.
Slightly paraphrasing your comment, could it be that hotels are actually the optimal short term accommodation for asylum seekers, given they need to go somewhere? Hotels are highly space efficient bed factories for transient populations. Importantly for a controversial policy, they already exist so impacts on other people are minimised. I suspect if contracts are managed properly that they are also cost effective.
Given the prices charged, no.
IIRC, it would have been cheaper to hire a cruise ship to send them on a cruise.
Aren't these tips contradictory? There is a good chance neither wins and it's almost certain that at least one doesn't win.
For the Greens to lead in a poll, I reckon they need to get to at least 22% to have any chance (their best so far is 19%) and even that might only get them a tie. The equation is basically Reform plus Conservative divided by two. That's been as low as 21% in one YouGov back in July, but generally it doesn't go below 22%. And, of course, it needs the split to be 50:50.
I think I'd want more like 33/1 to be tempted.
That is not at all unusual in finding value bets. It is a reflection of a difference of opinion about the volatility of polling rather than direction of polling.
Someone who was personally involved in screwing up on all the measures he mentions in the video when previously in government, wants us to believe he has all the answers.
There was a Home Office Minister called Jobert Renrick who put all the asylum seekers into 5* hotels. Different chap I believe.
I thought all the jacuzzis were closed which makes them “not 5* hotels”?
Not according to GB News and the Daily Mail. I believe those hotels without a spa had one fitted by the Labour Government when they arrived in office, at the same time they handed out the Motability Maseratis.
Motability Maseratis - poppycock.
Motability Bugattis - obviously.
What kind of a CommieSymp are you?
I seem to recall a Frank & Earnest debate with several hundred SeanTs - trying to get him to admit that the hotels were all budget…
Personally, I think the hotel thing is another example of how Process pushes society into poor solutions. Every other idea for storing migrants was tried. Each was defeated by legal process. The hotels were used because the legal advice was that no Process was required to use them - simply block book for x years.
We see similar in things such as mass battery storage. It may not be the best, cheapest etc. but there is next to nothing that can stop you putting a couple of ISO containers on your land.
Clearly those complaining about luxury hotels accommodating asylum seekers have never stayed at the Macclesfield Travelodge.
Slightly paraphrasing your comment, could it be that hotels are actually the optimal short term accommodation for asylum seekers, given they need to go somewhere? Hotels are highly space efficient bed factories for transient populations. Importantly for a controversial policy, they already exist so impacts on other people are minimised. I suspect if contracts are managed properly that they are also cost effective.
Why the hell is anyone fretting about hotels.
A govt scheme is giving money to councils to build social housing for Asylum seekers.
At least five have volunteered (Brighton, of course, being one): with up to 200 interested.
If locals waiting for homes, often for years, are upset by this just tell them they’re racist. Usually does the trick and shuts them up 👍
Given that some “low priority” people have been on council house waiting lists for more than a decade, that does seem a good way to shore up the Reform vote.
Someone who was personally involved in screwing up on all the measures he mentions in the video when previously in government, wants us to believe he has all the answers.
There was a Home Office Minister called Jobert Renrick who put all the asylum seekers into 5* hotels. Different chap I believe.
I thought all the jacuzzis were closed which makes them “not 5* hotels”?
Not according to GB News and the Daily Mail. I believe those hotels without a spa had one fitted by the Labour Government when they arrived in office, at the same time they handed out the Motability Maseratis.
Motability Maseratis - poppycock.
Motability Bugattis - obviously.
What kind of a CommieSymp are you?
I seem to recall a Frank & Earnest debate with several hundred SeanTs - trying to get him to admit that the hotels were all budget…
Personally, I think the hotel thing is another example of how Process pushes society into poor solutions. Every other idea for storing migrants was tried. Each was defeated by legal process. The hotels were used because the legal advice was that no Process was required to use them - simply block book for x years.
We see similar in things such as mass battery storage. It may not be the best, cheapest etc. but there is next to nothing that can stop you putting a couple of ISO containers on your land.
I think you've missed the point. At no point did anyone called Robert Jenrick send tens of thousands of asylum seekers to hotels. He sent them all to live in cardboard boxes on the fast lane of motorways. When he was boasting about how many asylum seekers he had sent to live in cardboard boxes on the motorway he accidentally said hotels. An easy mistake to make.
I thought he tried cardboard boxes (Luuuuuuzury) but was pushed back in the courts?
Proposals are at the considered by ministers stage so don't hold your breath.
The current levels are simply unaffordable and not always needed, but there would be massive outcry - this will not happen.
A better question might be to ask why they are unaffordable. Is it, perhaps, because our school system is not well set up to cope with those who do not fit into tidy little boxes?
Or because we start schooling very early - earlier than comparably run systems in Scandinavia - which means that we are forcing children to learn before they are fully ready?
Or the dogmatic insistence on date of birth for start of school?
Or the size of classes?
Or the emphasis on academic subjects (some of which are very badly planned out in terms of content and assessment) in the curriculum?
But nobody seems to be asking those questions. Largely I think because it raises too many awkward revelations about decades of mismanagement (not all of it well-intentioned) by the centre.
All good questions to address wider issues, though well intentioned but too loose 'requirements' which incentivises classification is a matter which if addresses could stem the financial bleeding to give breathing room to look at them.
But definitely not happening. Too many legitimate sob stories and would turbo charge all opposition.
I've worked within the SEND system.
Believe me, it is bloody difficult to get any support for a child. Even with wealthy parents who have high class barristers on tap. Councils just refuse.
There is a reason almost 98% of refusals are overturned on appeal. However, even then most councils won't implement the decision. In Staffordshire, for example, they refuse to provide 1:1 support even where they are ordered to. The only case I know of where that was reversed was where the child's father, who happened to be an equalities lead for a national organisation, took them to court and won.
We should not be asking about how to cut SEND costs. We should be asking instead how they are soaring so rapidly *even though councils are not actually doing what they should be* and therefore we *already* are failing to provide anything like adequate support.
Which means we come back to the system.
Partly it's the problem of having a statutory demand-led system coupled to an extremely finite pot of money.
Partly it's that the mental health of the nation does seem to be getting worse.
I think it's also partly that the standard system isn't working for standard kids, and so the parents of normal kids are looking for ways to help their children. Pushing hard for SEND assistance is one of the avenues available.
20 years of experience tells me very firmly that you think wrong. You can barely get support for children whose dyslexia makes it nearly impossible for them to read and write without a legal dogfight, never mind anything else.
I remember working with one individual with severe palsy. He couldn't get any funding at all even though he could barely walk to a classroom and when he got there he worked so slowly he was always behind. In desperation his parents scraped together just enough money for private tutors to get him through A-levels. And we did, but it was damned hard. The county still didn't want to bloody know.
Honestly though, that’s a real achievement. 30 years ago he would have been on the scrap heap. Today you got him through A levels
Proposals are at the considered by ministers stage so don't hold your breath.
The current levels are simply unaffordable and not always needed, but there would be massive outcry - this will not happen.
Taking a 500ft view, the use of taxis for school transport in particular seems worthy of investigation.
I’m not saying it’s Minnesotan daycare levels of ‘mismanagement’, but it would be good to know who’s running the taxi companies that benefit and if the job of getting kids to school could be done more efficiently.
Ferrying kids to school could be done a bit more cheaply but there are fundamental constraints. First, children need to arrive at school at the same time, so there is a morning peak in demand. Second, they need driving home again. Third, this needs to happen every school day. Fourth, at least some drivers will need special training and/or equipment and/or DBS checks.
So for any one taxi, that is one or two hours in the morning, and the same in the afternoon, for most of the year, and it will need to be booked in advance. Four hours a day, an hour for lunch, it is almost a full-time job. It's a seller's market.
Councils might be able to save money by running specialist minibuses but because of parental choice, kids living in one place don't all go to the nearest school (one of my many recurring rants) so it will not be just the one minibus. Savings would be limited even if politics and belief in the preternatural efficiency of private sector solutions (viz taxis) were not factors.
You can figure out the most efficient route to get children to the relevant school. Some kids will have to get picked up earlier and spend longer on the bus. The issue is the unreasonable demands - door to door service with no waiting time - and the fact that councils accommodate.
Small, but perfectly formed difficulty. Many of these children refuse to get on a bus, or interact in any way with other people, children and adults. Sometimes they're down, effectively, to inter-acting with just one parent.
It's NOT EASY!
Who said life was 🤷♂️
80% solutions, remember. I’ll bet that most children would be fine with a bus.
I'm trying to think of ones that are potentially on their way for recalls, illnesses and the like and none spring to my mind. I'm not convinced the make way for Andy Burnham will manifest either.
We were one punch away from no by-elections last year.
Between 79 and 25 we averaged about four by elections a year.
Deaths in office used to be higher, but getting through a year with no changes even now feels tough, though possible. And as time goes on more will be looking to jump ship or prepare new jobs.
I'm tempted by the 16/1 on 0 by-elections this year partly as a proxy hedge (if there is a by-election, then chances are that I can make money on it - if there are none, then the opportunity is lost, so I get paid back in another way)
The main risk imo is not scandal but that one of Labour's paper candidates swept up in the landslide realises they will never make the front bench and didn't spend their life in the movement to send small children up chimneys or whatever else Starmer & Reeves propose. A principled resignation and return to their old job where they can at least make a difference will scupper the bet.
Wealth warning: I cannot get on with Ladbrokes so have not used too many brain cells on this.
The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai is the first Russian oil refinery to be hit by Ukrainian drones in 2026. Previously targeted in November and September of 2025, it has a capacity of 6.5 million tons and is the... 26th largest refinery in Russia with about 2% of total Russian capacity.
Also hit overnight was an oil terminal in Tartarstan that processes and stores crude oil from northern Russia oilfields. If the Ukrainians can damage that it might force some of the oil wells to shut down.
And once shut down, oil wells can take years to restart so Russia will not want to allow that.
Russia may not want =/= Russia can enforce.
This winter is going to be brutal for all concerned in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Ukrainians have endured 4 winters of it. Up to now, Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg have endured 0. The shock for metropolitan Russians will be severe.
Parts of Moscow and St.P spent last night without power, and at least four O&G facilities put on a free fireworks show.
My prediction for ‘26 is that ordinary metropolitan Russians finally start to feel that their country is at war.
My prediction for 2026 is that we'll be inundated with anniversaries: 10 years since Brexit; 100 years since the Great Depression; and that's just the big ones. 50 years since the long, hot summer of 76; 60 years since England won the World Cup (since renamed the Men's World Cup; no doubt soon to be renamed the Trump World Cup).
Trump’s biggest party this year isn’t even going to be the World Cup, it’s going to be the USA’s 250th birthday party on 4th July.
I believe the King is going. William will also be visiting the US next year (for the soccer), and both are expected to go into bay for the government's trade deal with the US.
The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai is the first Russian oil refinery to be hit by Ukrainian drones in 2026. Previously targeted in November and September of 2025, it has a capacity of 6.5 million tons and is the... 26th largest refinery in Russia with about 2% of total Russian capacity.
Also hit overnight was an oil terminal in Tartarstan that processes and stores crude oil from northern Russia oilfields. If the Ukrainians can damage that it might force some of the oil wells to shut down.
And once shut down, oil wells can take years to restart so Russia will not want to allow that.
Russia may not want =/= Russia can enforce.
This winter is going to be brutal for all concerned in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Ukrainians have endured 4 winters of it. Up to now, Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg have endured 0. The shock for metropolitan Russians will be severe.
Parts of Moscow and St.P spent last night without power, and at least four O&G facilities put on a free fireworks show.
My prediction for ‘26 is that ordinary metropolitan Russians finally start to feel that their country is at war.
My prediction for 2026 is that we'll be inundated with anniversaries: 10 years since Brexit; 100 years since the Great Depression; and that's just the big ones. 50 years since the long, hot summer of 76; 60 years since England won the World Cup (since renamed the Men's World Cup; no doubt soon to be renamed the Trump World Cup).
250 years of the US.
1783?
Yes, strictly speaking that's when the USA became a legal entity, not 1776.
The Articles of Confederation established a national government before 1783, albeit a weak one.
To say we live in volatile and unpredictable times is akin to the introductory lecture on my "stating the bleeding obvious" course at the University of Whatsthepoint.
As we are (to throw in another cliche) cursed to live in interesting times, I've no clue as to what will happen politically in 2026 and much prefer the vagaries of trying to figure out what might win at Lingfield on Monday.
The May locals could well redraw London politics or possibly do much less - the very notion Labour could lose its majority in Newham is one thing but if I have a notion, I'll probably have to second the emotion such eventualities happen much less frequently than you might think and the more likely outcome is Labour surviving bruised and battered but still in charge.
The YouGov poll points to the other intriguing thought the insurgent parties (Reform, Green) are perhaps not the certainties to overturn the troika of established parties some might believe or hope and indeed it could be Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat all start moving up as people get tired of Mr Gloomy.
The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai is the first Russian oil refinery to be hit by Ukrainian drones in 2026. Previously targeted in November and September of 2025, it has a capacity of 6.5 million tons and is the... 26th largest refinery in Russia with about 2% of total Russian capacity.
Also hit overnight was an oil terminal in Tartarstan that processes and stores crude oil from northern Russia oilfields. If the Ukrainians can damage that it might force some of the oil wells to shut down.
And once shut down, oil wells can take years to restart so Russia will not want to allow that.
Russia may not want =/= Russia can enforce.
This winter is going to be brutal for all concerned in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Ukrainians have endured 4 winters of it. Up to now, Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg have endured 0. The shock for metropolitan Russians will be severe.
Parts of Moscow and St.P spent last night without power, and at least four O&G facilities put on a free fireworks show.
My prediction for ‘26 is that ordinary metropolitan Russians finally start to feel that their country is at war.
My prediction for 2026 is that we'll be inundated with anniversaries: 10 years since Brexit; 100 years since the Great Depression; and that's just the big ones. 50 years since the long, hot summer of 76; 60 years since England won the World Cup (since renamed the Men's World Cup; no doubt soon to be renamed the Trump World Cup).
250 years of the US.
1783?
Yes, strictly speaking that's when the USA became a legal entity, not 1776.
The Articles of Confederation established a national government before 1783, albeit a weak one.
The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai is the first Russian oil refinery to be hit by Ukrainian drones in 2026. Previously targeted in November and September of 2025, it has a capacity of 6.5 million tons and is the... 26th largest refinery in Russia with about 2% of total Russian capacity.
Also hit overnight was an oil terminal in Tartarstan that processes and stores crude oil from northern Russia oilfields. If the Ukrainians can damage that it might force some of the oil wells to shut down.
And once shut down, oil wells can take years to restart so Russia will not want to allow that.
Russia may not want =/= Russia can enforce.
This winter is going to be brutal for all concerned in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Ukrainians have endured 4 winters of it. Up to now, Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg have endured 0. The shock for metropolitan Russians will be severe.
Parts of Moscow and St.P spent last night without power, and at least four O&G facilities put on a free fireworks show.
My prediction for ‘26 is that ordinary metropolitan Russians finally start to feel that their country is at war.
My prediction for 2026 is that we'll be inundated with anniversaries: 10 years since Brexit; 100 years since the Great Depression; and that's just the big ones. 50 years since the long, hot summer of 76; 60 years since England won the World Cup (since renamed the Men's World Cup; no doubt soon to be renamed the Trump World Cup).
250 years of the US.
1783?
Yes, strictly speaking that's when the USA became a legal entity, not 1776.
The Articles of Confederation established a national government before 1783, albeit a weak one.
Aren't these tips contradictory? There is a good chance neither wins and it's almost certain that at least one doesn't win.
For the Greens to lead in a poll, I reckon they need to get to at least 22% to have any chance (their best so far is 19%) and even that might only get them a tie. The equation is basically Reform plus Conservative divided by two. That's been as low as 21% in one YouGov back in July, but generally it doesn't go below 22%. And, of course, it needs the split to be 50:50.
I think I'd want more like 33/1 to be tempted.
What software did you use to produce that graph please?
Also how is it calculated?
Assuming that Con averages between 15-20 (from memory) and Ref is 20-30, shouldn’t Con+ Ref halved be in the 25-30 range rather than below 25?
That's rather bizarre - not one mention of the Conservative Party, or what will bring the change about. If I didn't know better, it could be a Labour politician giving an optimistic take on the next ten years.
Proposals are at the considered by ministers stage so don't hold your breath.
The current levels are simply unaffordable and not always needed, but there would be massive outcry - this will not happen.
Taking a 500ft view, the use of taxis for school transport in particular seems worthy of investigation.
I’m not saying it’s Minnesotan daycare levels of ‘mismanagement’, but it would be good to know who’s running the taxi companies that benefit and if the job of getting kids to school could be done more efficiently.
Ferrying kids to school could be done a bit more cheaply but there are fundamental constraints. First, children need to arrive at school at the same time, so there is a morning peak in demand. Second, they need driving home again. Third, this needs to happen every school day. Fourth, at least some drivers will need special training and/or equipment and/or DBS checks.
So for any one taxi, that is one or two hours in the morning, and the same in the afternoon, for most of the year, and it will need to be booked in advance. Four hours a day, an hour for lunch, it is almost a full-time job. It's a seller's market.
Councils might be able to save money by running specialist minibuses but because of parental choice, kids living in one place don't all go to the nearest school (one of my many recurring rants) so it will not be just the one minibus. Savings would be limited even if politics and belief in the preternatural efficiency of private sector solutions (viz taxis) were not factors.
You can figure out the most efficient route to get children to the relevant school. Some kids will have to get picked up earlier and spend longer on the bus. The issue is the unreasonable demands - door to door service with no waiting time - and the fact that councils accommodate.
Small, but perfectly formed difficulty. Many of these children refuse to get on a bus, or interact in any way with other people, children and adults. Sometimes they're down, effectively, to inter-acting with just one parent.
It's NOT EASY!
Who said life was 🤷♂️
Mine isn't, for sure. Couple of years ago I didn't know how comfortable and straightforward things were!±
Aren't these tips contradictory? There is a good chance neither wins and it's almost certain that at least one doesn't win.
For the Greens to lead in a poll, I reckon they need to get to at least 22% to have any chance (their best so far is 19%) and even that might only get them a tie. The equation is basically Reform plus Conservative divided by two. That's been as low as 21% in one YouGov back in July, but generally it doesn't go below 22%. And, of course, it needs the split to be 50:50.
I think I'd want more like 33/1 to be tempted.
That is not at all unusual in finding value bets. It is a reflection of a difference of opinion about the volatility of polling rather than direction of polling.
There's that, but also both bets have in common that the established parties do badly. They simply differ on which of the insurgent parties benefit most.
If the established parties do *really* badly, it's possible for the two bets to come home in consecutive polls. Or even the same poll.
Comments
The December average for Reform with Find Out Now was 31%. The September average was 33.25%.
That decline matches the average shown on the Wikipedia graph.
Will be an interesting set of results in the former City of Culture.
By publishing an op ed written by an Iranian apparatchik at the very moment the Iranian people are rising up the Guardian shows itself to be a parody of everything it’s supposed to represent. Standing up for the oppressed? Give me a break
We'll soon get to see - if there are any surviving elections that Labour hasn't cancelled by then.
I don't think we should make assumptions about Trump.
IMO they will take also Ashfield by dominating the north end away from Nottingham, maybe with 2/3 of the seats (which would be 20~25 from 34). Tories are peripheral. Ashfield Independents have their Council Leader waiting for a Crown Court appearance in 2027 on about a dozen charges. The Deputy Leader has not stopped committing crimes, and his vote has been deflating for quite some time. Labour were 2nd in the GE, but the narrative is strongly against them. LDs are just starting to reorganise from autumn 2025, but it will take them a decade to get far, black swans aside. Thatcher style, there is currently no perceived alternative.
Mansfield will go RefUK imo (the former Mansfield Independents are now a part of the Reform core at county level), and so could Bolsover and others places on the Derbyshire side. RefUK are fucking up Derbyshire quite seriously at very high speed, faster than Notts, but I don't think it will cut through in former mining areas yet.
So, um, very marginally, the decline is smaller with YouGov than Find Out Now.
"Tom Goodenough
Dominic Cummings on Whitehall's plan to destroy Nigel Farage
Cummings has warned Nigel Farage that Whitehall will break the law to prevent Reform winning power. Speaking on The Spectator‘s Quite Right! podcast, Cummings said: ‘They’ll leak medical records, they’ll leak tax records. They’ll bug his phone and leak that. They’ll do anything that they need to’."
https://spectator.com/article/dominic-cummings-on-whitehalls-plan-to-destroy-nigel-farage/
I'm not sure a "British Recognition of Your Independence Day" is going to catch on, but a party on September 3rd might ease the pains of the return to school, so we could give it a go?
So Kemi will at least have made progress in wealthy West and North and Central London since she became leader, even if she sees losses elsewhere
I suppose he might go for a coup but I doubt the military would back him.
Sincerely hope I’m right on that!
So for the tidal wave of diagnoses to be fake, you’d require a large number of doctors to be liars and putting their careers on the line. Possibly prosecution for fraud - especially if private insurance is involved.
How much money and at what odds do you wish to bet on YouGov being wrong?
It's a heck of a lot of hassle for a free taxi ride.
I wasn’t sure which was the chicken and which the egg.
And I still have 4,300 steps to do on my Fitbit.
Bah.
So it's not impossible that the threshold for diagnosis has been moved too far towards the not-ADHD end of the spectrum.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/u0HX8q4f0GE
You will be generally slightly bored, but it's definitely better than ratcheting up points.
The deeper problem is that our expectations have increased much faster than our economy/productivity has. That's why demands on the public sector are so overwhelming, whether it's someone like DavidL prosecuting more sex offenders, or my partner finding new ways to keep sick people alive, or my friend looking after severely autistic kids at her school (instead of teaching advanced higher maths to the smarter kids, like she's supposed to).
I did one perhaps 10 years ago now. Yes, I did learn some things, and relearn some other things.
The rest of the Rothschild investment business went into St James's Place (formerly J Rothschild Assurance), and RIT (Rothschild Investment Trust).
Dyslexia is a more complex one.
The question here, for me, is how low the symptom bar goes for a diagnosis.
https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/2006652583147090173
https://www.racingpost.com/news/britain/it-was-nothing-short-of-spectacular-how-did-racecourse-attendances-fare-over-the-christmas-period-aGPLH7i7EVyD/
Excellent crowd numbers at the Christmas and New Year horse race meetings and another rebuttal to Nigel “Mr Gloomy” Farage.
My doctor in the US cheerfully prescribed a very low dose for me to help me get onto new timezones when traveling. A single 5mg tablet will get me fully awake, focused and able to work, even if I've just gotten off a plane with three hours of interrupted sleep and my body thinks it's 2am.
There was a Home Office Minister called Jenrick
He was a bit of a jab in the arm
Nonetheless he went too far
In the future he'll be mainly at the bar
That jumped up complete Richard.
Motability Bugattis - obviously.
What kind of a CommieSymp are you?
I seem to recall a Frank & Earnest debate with several hundred SeanTs - trying to get him to admit that the hotels were all budget…
Personally, I think the hotel thing is another example of how Process pushes society into poor solutions. Every other idea for storing migrants was tried. Each was defeated by legal process. The hotels were used because the legal advice was that no Process was required to use them - simply block book for x years.
We see similar in things such as mass battery storage. It may not be the best, cheapest etc. but there is next to nothing that can stop you putting a couple of ISO containers on your land.
There was once a young minister called Jenrick
Whose policies were - who would have kenned it?
Exactly the same
As the ones he defamed:
And his political career was thus ended.
There’s obviously the issue of whether the SEND kids can adapt to it. Some will love it - years ago, my ex hand a daughter who had quite severe issues, requiring a specialist school. The child adored her school bus - which stopped directly outside the house.
It's NOT EASY!
Slightly paraphrasing your comment, could it be that hotels are actually the optimal short term accommodation for asylum seekers, given they need to go somewhere? Hotels are highly space efficient bed factories for transient populations. Importantly for a controversial policy, they already exist so impacts on other people are minimised. I suspect if contracts are managed properly that they are also cost effective.
There once was a MP called Davey
Who asked if one day PM said "Maybe"
He won 500 seats
Which was a bit of a feat
And ended up having chips with some gravy
A govt scheme is giving money to councils to build social housing for Asylum seekers.
At least five have volunteered (Brighton, of course, being one): with up to 200 interested.
https://inews.co.uk/news/councils-turn-derelict-properties-into-asylum-seeker-housing-4124314?srsltid=AfmBOorQQhhlRkh3-M1RUH5me1bqdvKP_mMa6D7BjwBySs-HpUr1RSRT
https://theisleofthanetnews.com/2025/12/31/thanet-put-forward-for-government-pilot-scheme-to-provide-council-housing-for-people-seeking-asylum/
If locals waiting for homes, often for years, are upset by this just tell them they’re racist. Usually does the trick and shuts them up 👍
IIRC, it would have been cheaper to hire a cruise ship to send them on a cruise.
Is that with the rest of the tea?
To say we live in volatile and unpredictable times is akin to the introductory lecture on my "stating the bleeding obvious" course at the University of Whatsthepoint.
As we are (to throw in another cliche) cursed to live in interesting times, I've no clue as to what will happen politically in 2026 and much prefer the vagaries of trying to figure out what might win at Lingfield on Monday.
The May locals could well redraw London politics or possibly do much less - the very notion Labour could lose its majority in Newham is one thing but if I have a notion, I'll probably have to second the emotion such eventualities happen much less frequently than you might think and the more likely outcome is Labour surviving bruised and battered but still in charge.
The YouGov poll points to the other intriguing thought the insurgent parties (Reform, Green) are perhaps not the certainties to overturn the troika of established parties some might believe or hope and indeed it could be Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat all start moving up as people get tired of Mr Gloomy.
And that would be the greater of two evils.
Assuming that Con averages between 15-20 (from memory) and Ref is 20-30, shouldn’t Con+ Ref halved be in the 25-30 range rather than below 25?
If the established parties do *really* badly, it's possible for the two bets to come home in consecutive polls. Or even the same poll.