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William Hill offering a marketDair said:Are people not noticing.
The average for the SNP is ~48% in the seats polled. And they've won all but one.
The national average poll for the SNP is in this range.
It's not just here and these were postulated as the seats there would be a concentrated SNP vote diluting the vote elsewhere. But the only real outcome you can see is that it's EVERYWHERE and in most places the SNP don't need anything close to ~48%.
There's nowhere else for the SNP to have concentrated results to even this out. Maybe one or two of the seats they hold, maybe. But that's not enough to balance this out. This result does seem to indicate SNP 55 is very likely.
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*coughs and draws attention to this morning's discussion*Tissue_Price said:
The thought occurs that the SNP could state explicitly that their price for a SNP-Lab coalition would be a new Labour leader. "Vote SNP, lose Miliband, get a Labour-SNP government"Tissue_Price said:In nearly every one of these seats - these seats! - voters prefer DC to EM. Miliband scrapes a tie in Glasgow North.
Astonishing.
I've got a 10/1 bet that all three of Nick Clegg, David Cameron and Ed Miliband will go this year. I'm happy enough with that.0 -
They better all stay till the GE though !antifrank said:
*coughs and draws attention to this morning's discussion*Tissue_Price said:
The thought occurs that the SNP could state explicitly that their price for a SNP-Lab coalition would be a new Labour leader. "Vote SNP, lose Miliband, get a Labour-SNP government"Tissue_Price said:In nearly every one of these seats - these seats! - voters prefer DC to EM. Miliband scrapes a tie in Glasgow North.
Astonishing.
I've got a 10/1 bet that all three of Nick Clegg, David Cameron and Ed Miliband will go this year. I'm happy enough with that.0 -
LDs could be reduced to Orkney & Shetland, as they were at the 2011 Holyrood election IIRC.0
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Agreed!Pulpstar said:
They better all stay till the GE though !antifrank said:
*coughs and draws attention to this morning's discussion*Tissue_Price said:
The thought occurs that the SNP could state explicitly that their price for a SNP-Lab coalition would be a new Labour leader. "Vote SNP, lose Miliband, get a Labour-SNP government"Tissue_Price said:In nearly every one of these seats - these seats! - voters prefer DC to EM. Miliband scrapes a tie in Glasgow North.
Astonishing.
I've got a 10/1 bet that all three of Nick Clegg, David Cameron and Ed Miliband will go this year. I'm happy enough with that.0 -
On the other hand, he hasn't spent 5 years as Chief Secretary, and he has an extra 15% of cushion. I reckon he'll be ok but 1/3 makes little appeal.antifrank said:Charles Kennedy looks in real trouble in his seat if the poll in Danny Alexander's seat is any guide.
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Yes, middle-class East voted No by a big margin and working-class West voted No narrowly.Pulpstar said:0 -
It's still cheap to stand for Parliament. If the deposit had kept pace since 1918 it would now be somewhere between £6k and £46k...Dair said:
My error, thought it was £2k for some reason.OblitusSumMe said:
£500 per deposit makes £250k for 500 lost deposits.Dair said:
If the Scottish pattern follows for the Lib Dems across England then in seats they don't currently hold they will lose their deposit in every one. That;s 500+ lost deposits. Over £1m. Can they even afford that?hunchman said:What's striking about so many of those constituency polls is just how low the totals are for the Tories, Lib Dems and others in the SLAB SNP battle. So little pro-unionist vote for SLAB to squeeze in theory. Look at Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill as an example, just 12% there as an example. A lot of lost deposits for the Lib Dems!
Since the deposits are paid upfront then we'll see if the Lib Dems can afford it or not by whether they stand candidates.0 -
Still think this doesn't really nause Milibands chances of being PM to be honestSeanT said:
This isn't about YES or NO, it's about Ask the Audience, the Wisdom of Crowds. If you are a Scottish voter, the best way to get a good deal for Scotland, and yourself, is to vote SNP in 2015, as that will exert maximum leverage on a likely weak Westminster English government (whether Labour or Tory). Thus the Scots voter is acting intelligently, ensuring a generous deal for his or her country.Pulpstar said:
Will the Scots vote for the (now income tax raising) SNP in Holyrood in such numbers in 2016? Highly unlikely. I can't see the logic, unless you are desperate for another immediate referendum so you can vote YES (to which end, see the price of oil, and continuing chaos in euroland).
Labour will be wiped out in 2015, but I suspect they will return to Holyrood in numbers a year later.
Of course that is too late for Miliband, Difficult to see him winning in 2015 on these stats.0 -
East Dunbartonshire is split between the wealthier Milngavie and Bearsden in it's west and Kirkintilloch/Bishopbriggs/Lennoxtown in the east. It voted 43% Yes.AndyJS said:
Yes, middle-class East voted No by a big margin and working-class West voted No narrowly.Pulpstar said:
Currently it is a Liberal marginal over Labour. The SNP were 4th. The Yes vote is not tiny, the Liberals in adjacent North Glasgow have just been wiped out. A whole lot of Milngavie and Bearsden REALLY don't like Labour.
Has to be an SNP gain.0 -
£240 on Cumbernauld Kintilloch East and Kilbryde. Limited by Betfair to £40 on the last go.
Job done.0 -
One of the most game-changing opinion polls I've ever seen. take that, daily Yougov.
The figures that stand out for me is which parties have contacted voters. LDs strong in their 2 seats, but SNP dominant everywhere. These are in areas with Lab MPs and councillors, and some SNP candidates not selected. For the SNP to win the ground game is vital against the SLAB machine - so they can keep momentum up right to polling day0 -
Btw this could well wipe out Labour's vote/seat advantage0
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That's what the membership surge is doing for them.tpfkar said:One of the most game-changing opinion polls I've ever seen. take that, daily Yougov.
The figures that stand out for me is which parties have contacted voters. LDs strong in their 2 seats, but SNP dominant everywhere. These are in areas with Lab MPs and councillors, and some SNP candidates not selected. For the SNP to win the ground game is vital against the SLAB machine - so they can keep momentum up right to polling day
Must feel great to be backing someone other than Labour in Scotland now, a real sense of optimism - Scottish Labour is THE most negative party ever !0 -
Scotland does nothing for a Conservative pluralitySeanT said:
He's going to lose 30ish seats in Scotland (wiping out much of Labour's FPTP advantage, btw).. Yes, this does him serious damage. Today's YouGov has him tied with Cameron, and we all know he suffers in the limelight. Imagine an election campaign?isam said:
Still think this doesn't really nause Milibands chances of being PM to be honestSeanT said:
This isn't about YES or NO, it's about Ask the Audience, the Wisdom of Crowds. If you are a Scottish voter, the best way to get a good deal for Scotland, and yourself, is to vote SNP in 2015, as that will exert maximum leverage on a likely weak Westminster English government (whether Labour or Tory). Thus the Scots voter is acting intelligently, ensuring a generous deal for his or her country.Pulpstar said:
Will the Scots vote for the (now income tax raising) SNP in Holyrood in such numbers in 2016? Highly unlikely. I can't see the logic, unless you are desperate for another immediate referendum so you can vote YES (to which end, see the price of oil, and continuing chaos in euroland).
Labour will be wiped out in 2015, but I suspect they will return to Holyrood in numbers a year later.
Of course that is too late for Miliband, Difficult to see him winning in 2015 on these stats.
Right now, gun to my head, if forced, I would predict a very narrow Tory plurality, and Cameron remaining in Number 10.
But my official prediction is: I haven't got a clue.
But Labour's morale is going to be tonked.
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It certainly is tough to call... I just get the impression cameron will find it hard to get coalition partners this time, but am guessing as much as anyone elseSeanT said:
He's going to lose 30ish seats in Scotland (wiping out much of Labour's FPTP advantage, btw).. Yes, this does him serious damage. Today's YouGov has him tied with Cameron, and we all know he suffers in the limelight. Imagine an election campaign?isam said:
Still think this doesn't really nause Milibands chances of being PM to be honestSeanT said:
This isn't about YES or NO, it's about Ask the Audience, the Wisdom of Crowds. If you are a Scottish voter, the best way to get a good deal for Scotland, and yourself, is to vote SNP in 2015, as that will exert maximum leverage on a likely weak Westminster English government (whether Labour or Tory). Thus the Scots voter is acting intelligently, ensuring a generous deal for his or her country.Pulpstar said:
Will the Scots vote for the (now income tax raising) SNP in Holyrood in such numbers in 2016? Highly unlikely. I can't see the logic, unless you are desperate for another immediate referendum so you can vote YES (to which end, see the price of oil, and continuing chaos in euroland).
Labour will be wiped out in 2015, but I suspect they will return to Holyrood in numbers a year later.
Of course that is too late for Miliband, Difficult to see him winning in 2015 on these stats.
Right now, gun to my head, if forced, I would predict a very narrow Tory plurality, and Cameron remaining in Number 10.
But my official prediction is: I haven't got a clue.0 -
What SLAB machine?tpfkar said:One of the most game-changing opinion polls I've ever seen. take that, daily Yougov.
The figures that stand out for me is which parties have contacted voters. LDs strong in their 2 seats, but SNP dominant everywhere. These are in areas with Lab MPs and councillors, and some SNP candidates not selected. For the SNP to win the ground game is vital against the SLAB machine - so they can keep momentum up right to polling day
They have barely needed to campaign in any seat for 40 years. They have no members. All they have is fading The Daily Record and #BBCbias and that is not going to be as blatant as it was during indyref.0 -
The poll says 79% of people hadn't been contacted by any party?
Begs the question what Scottish Labour are doing though, they're meant to be going out all out to rescue the situation, especially in the winnable seats.0 -
Betfair sportsbook has pulled all it's Scottish markets.0
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Will we see a big over-reaction in the Ed PM market tommorow ?0
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BTW Ashcroft is weighting by 2010 recall. So the likelihood is the SNP are actually doing BETTER than these figures show.0
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YouGov are picking up a 21.5% national swing. Ashcroft is picking up a 24% swing in the 13 Labour seats he polled [and there will be a few more that fit the profile]. The implication is to expect about 19-20% elsewhere.0
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Yup. Scotland was one of the main reasons they had that advantage in the first place: they've always managed to sweep the table in Scotland despite doing relatively mediocre in voteshare (they've never - NEVER - got over 50% in Scotland, a threshold that in their best elections they clear with ease in Wales and Northern England).Pulpstar said:Btw this could well wipe out Labour's vote/seat advantage
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I'll take the SNP matching these figures in May ta very much, hope people are putting in the ground work.Dair said:BTW Ashcroft is weighting by 2010 recall. So the likelihood is the SNP are actually doing BETTER than these figures show.
LOL How on earth will Labour know how to fight in Coatbridge. Almost an East Ham size majority there last time !!!0 -
Yes the swing in the Edinburgh area won't be as high.Tissue_Price said:YouGov are picking up a 21.5% national swing. Ashcroft is picking up a 24% swing in the 13 Labour seats he polled [and there will be a few more that fit the profile]. The implication is to expect about 20% elsewhere.
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That said Artist does make a good point. If every SNP voter who says they'd "consider" voting Labour actually did so (without Labour losing any votes they currently have), that would be enough to save all those seats bar Dundee West.
That's the straw Labour can clutch at, anyway, to stop them all jumping out the office windows tomorrow.0 -
This is precisely why I laid off the Votes/Seats switcheroo on the Betfair Electoral Bias market.Danny565 said:
Yup. Scotland was one of the main reasons they had that advantage in the first place: they've always managed to sweep the table in Scotland despite doing relatively mediocre in voteshare (they've never - NEVER - got over 50% in Scotland, a threshold that in their best elections they clear with ease in Wales and Northern England).Pulpstar said:Btw this could well wipe out Labour's vote/seat advantage
God Bless that market.0 -
Did you mis-type? Of course it makes a difference. Ed won't be PM with these figures.isam said:
Still think this doesn't really nause Milibands chances of being PM to be honestSeanT said:
This isn't about YES or NO, it's about Ask the Audience, the Wisdom of Crowds. If you are a Scottish voter, the best way to get a good deal for Scotland, and yourself, is to vote SNP in 2015, as that will exert maximum leverage on a likely weak Westminster English government (whether Labour or Tory). Thus the Scots voter is acting intelligently, ensuring a generous deal for his or her country.Pulpstar said:
Will the Scots vote for the (now income tax raising) SNP in Holyrood in such numbers in 2016? Highly unlikely. I can't see the logic, unless you are desperate for another immediate referendum so you can vote YES (to which end, see the price of oil, and continuing chaos in euroland).
Labour will be wiped out in 2015, but I suspect they will return to Holyrood in numbers a year later.
Of course that is too late for Miliband, Difficult to see him winning in 2015 on these stats.0 -
Just look at the Coatbridge result again:
2010 result: Lab 67%, SNP 17%. Labour lead 50%.
Ashcroft polling: SNP 46%, Lab 43%. SNP lead 3%.0 -
Of course he will. It potentially improves change his chance of being PM due to 55 SNP being better than 41 Labour and 11 Liberal. It hurts Cameron as he loses between 10 and 11 potential Liberal allies.AndyJS said:
Did you mis-type? Of course it makes a difference. Ed won't be PM with these figures.isam said:
Still think this doesn't really nause Milibands chances of being PM to be honestSeanT said:
This isn't about YES or NO, it's about Ask the Audience, the Wisdom of Crowds. If you are a Scottish voter, the best way to get a good deal for Scotland, and yourself, is to vote SNP in 2015, as that will exert maximum leverage on a likely weak Westminster English government (whether Labour or Tory). Thus the Scots voter is acting intelligently, ensuring a generous deal for his or her country.Pulpstar said:
Will the Scots vote for the (now income tax raising) SNP in Holyrood in such numbers in 2016? Highly unlikely. I can't see the logic, unless you are desperate for another immediate referendum so you can vote YES (to which end, see the price of oil, and continuing chaos in euroland).
Labour will be wiped out in 2015, but I suspect they will return to Holyrood in numbers a year later.
Of course that is too late for Miliband, Difficult to see him winning in 2015 on these stats.0 -
I've laid off some at 2.28 in the next PM market, hopefully can reback higher again tommorow.AndyJS said:
Did you mis-type? Of course it makes a difference. Ed won't be PM with these figures.isam said:
Still think this doesn't really nause Milibands chances of being PM to be honestSeanT said:
This isn't about YES or NO, it's about Ask the Audience, the Wisdom of Crowds. If you are a Scottish voter, the best way to get a good deal for Scotland, and yourself, is to vote SNP in 2015, as that will exert maximum leverage on a likely weak Westminster English government (whether Labour or Tory). Thus the Scots voter is acting intelligently, ensuring a generous deal for his or her country.Pulpstar said:
Will the Scots vote for the (now income tax raising) SNP in Holyrood in such numbers in 2016? Highly unlikely. I can't see the logic, unless you are desperate for another immediate referendum so you can vote YES (to which end, see the price of oil, and continuing chaos in euroland).
Labour will be wiped out in 2015, but I suspect they will return to Holyrood in numbers a year later.
Of course that is too late for Miliband, Difficult to see him winning in 2015 on these stats.0 -
I don't think it does much to his chances either BUT THE MARKETS WILL THINK THAT.Dair said:
Of course he will. It potentially improves change his chance of being PM due to 55 SNP being better than 41 Labour and 11 Liberal. It hurts Cameron as he loses between 10 and 11 potential Liberal allies.AndyJS said:
Did you mis-type? Of course it makes a difference. Ed won't be PM with these figures.isam said:
Still think this doesn't really nause Milibands chances of being PM to be honestSeanT said:
This isn't about YES or NO, it's about Ask the Audience, the Wisdom of Crowds. If you are a Scottish voter, the best way to get a good deal for Scotland, and yourself, is to vote SNP in 2015, as that will exert maximum leverage on a likely weak Westminster English government (whether Labour or Tory). Thus the Scots voter is acting intelligently, ensuring a generous deal for his or her country.Pulpstar said:
Will the Scots vote for the (now income tax raising) SNP in Holyrood in such numbers in 2016? Highly unlikely. I can't see the logic, unless you are desperate for another immediate referendum so you can vote YES (to which end, see the price of oil, and continuing chaos in euroland).
Labour will be wiped out in 2015, but I suspect they will return to Holyrood in numbers a year later.
Of course that is too late for Miliband, Difficult to see him winning in 2015 on these stats.
Could be a great time to back Ed Mili PM tommorow, hoping for a drift.0 -
I take it that Mike is now a believer in the SNP surge!
I think there is something in the YES/NO areas but only in size of relative swing. The SNP vote is up by nearly 20 per cent everywhere and that will be enough to carry them to victory just about everywhere. And so while the swing might be less in say some of the Edinburgh seats they don't need more than 35-40 per cent against a divided opposition.0 -
Now seen the full Ashcroft tables.
The absolutely key thing is that they have weighted by 2010 which means that the swing is UNDERESTIMATED in virtually every seat. The reason is false recall from 2010-2011 as all pollsters have found. Obviously this applies most in seats where the SNP did very well in 2011 and so the SNP is adjusted down in, for example, Gordon from the raw data.
In other words if you can get say an evens bet on Salmond taking more than 50 per cent of the vote in Gordon then take it and go all in. The best bet at the odds overall must be Cumbernauld.0
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