For anyone who hasn't read brookmyre, can I recommend A Big Boy Did it and Ran Away. One of the best "thrillers" of the last 15 years. I've read it half a dozen times.
I am oddly bemused by anyone who can read a book half a dozen times. The only book I've read twice, as an adult, is Ulysses, and I only did that because there were bits I simply didn't understand the first time (it is, nonetheless, my all time favourite book, alongside Pride and Prejudice).
How can you still gain something from a book on the sixth reading? Surely it's like using a teabag six times. After so many iterations all you get is hot water. No tea left.
I've read The Count Of Monte Cristo four or five times...
I read Dodie Smith The Starlight Barking at least twenty times as a child.
Absolutely filling my boots at Betfair Sportsbook. 15/8 on Douglas Alexander's seat
How on earth have you got betting accounts that let you fill your boots on markets like this?????
Betfair Sportsbook is the only one [since it came into being after I had exhausted everything else, and I decided not to do the usual stuff on it]. I suspect after the last 10 minutes that will no longer be the case tomorrow.
Just took £156 out at 2.12 36 seats or more SNP...good bet? That was on the exchgange, you can back 1.4 26 or more, and 1.03 12 or more!
In 2012, when the Times published confidential documents revealing that police officers and council officials had known for at least a decade that girls in Rotherham were being groomed, pimped and trafficked by men with virtual impunity, the locla authority's response was to demand a criminal inquiry into the leaking of the documents. The council threatened High Court action to block another story and also hired a firm of solicitors to expose the "security breach".
This is some True Detective style shit.
It is gobsmacking. Enormous, enormous scandal. But shhhhh you can't mention THE BIGGEST STORY ON THE FRONT PAGE OF THE TIMES, because, remember, you are "obsessed".
When the scale of the Rotherham abuse was truly unveiled, I expected the issue to explode across the front pages after town after town was looked at. But that never happened. Central government was virtually silent on it. These Muslim gangs must have some friends in some very high places.
Oh for those innocent days when the over-enthusiastic claiming of a few [tens of] thousands pounds worth of expenses each was enough to trigger a major scandal.
All in all from 15 seats, of which 13 are Labour (mostly in and around Glasgow) and 2 LD, the SNP gain both LD seats easily and another 8 Labour seats with ease. However they are relatively close with Labour in another 5 seats in Glasgow, so hell has frozen as I agree with Richard Nabavi.
If Labour has a fighting chance to keep half their Glasgow seats then it will be easier for them to hold in places where YES did not do as well as there.
Maybe, but a lot of seats the SNP are projected to gain easily are very far down their target list. Labour would do well to get 10 on a good night with these type of figures.
All in all from 15 seats, of which 13 are Labour (mostly in and around Glasgow) and 2 LD, the SNP gain both LD seats easily and another 8 Labour seats with ease. However they are relatively close with Labour in another 5 seats in Glasgow, so hell has frozen as I agree with Richard Nabavi.
If Labour has a fighting chance to keep half their Glasgow seats then it will be easier for them to hold in places where YES did not do as well as there.
Actually I think that, as expected, these results are very much in line with the national polls we've already seen, but not as bad for Labour as the most extreme ones.
So, Pulpstar is right that it's a massacre, but no more of a massacre than was to be expected.
All in all from 15 seats, of which 13 are Labour (mostly in and around Glasgow) and 2 LD, the SNP gain both LD seats easily and another 8 Labour seats with ease. However they are relatively close with Labour in another 5 seats in Glasgow, so hell has frozen as I agree with Richard Nabavi.
If Labour has a fighting chance to keep half their Glasgow seats then it will be easier for them to hold in places where YES did not do as well as there.
You're not really paying attention to the swing, are you.
Absolutely filling my boots at Betfair Sportsbook. 15/8 on Douglas Alexander's seat
How on earth have you got betting accounts that let you fill your boots on markets like this?????
Betfair Sportsbook is the only one [since it came into being after I had exhausted everything else, and I decided not to do the usual stuff on it]. I suspect after the last 10 minutes that will no longer be the case tomorrow.
Just took £156 out at 2.12 36 seats or more SNP...good bet?
Of course. I have just had an enormous sum on the SNP across about 20 constituencies (all the polled ones, then a few adjacent ones).
If these polls were reproduced on election day, the LDs would lose their deposit in all but two of the seats polled - every one they don't currently hold.
I see Rand Paul lost the GOP nomination in the last 24 hours.
But he was never going to win. And Christie, after his ridiculous stance on quarantining the returning nurse, has now yet more egg on his face over vaccines. It's looking like Rubio vs Walker.
All in all from 15 seats, of which 13 are Labour (mostly in and around Glasgow) and 2 LD, the SNP gain both LD seats easily and another 8 Labour seats with ease. However they are relatively close with Labour in another 5 seats in Glasgow, so hell has frozen as I agree with Richard Nabavi.
If Labour has a fighting chance to keep half their Glasgow seats then it will be easier for them to hold in places where YES did not do as well as there.
Maybe, but a lot of seats the SNP are projected to gain easily are very far down their target list. Labour would do well to get 10 on a good night with these type of figures.
You are forgetting that the SNP's base are YES voters, they got 53% in Glasgow, one of the few places where it got a majority. My theory was that the SNP will gain every seat in places where YES got more than 40%, they are not doing as well in Glasgow as my theory suggested, but I doubt that the SNP will do better in places like Edinburgh where YES got 14% less.
Think he's getting confused with Gavin (senior in IT) who the other Ed met in the park.
labours one business supporter and ed balls cant even remember his surname. Lord help us if this shower get the keys to number 10
Sometimes it looks as though Balls is deliberately trying to lose. This would be very sensible of him, of course; it's not as though he even bothers to try to hide his contempt for Ed M.
All in all from 15 seats, of which 13 are Labour (mostly in and around Glasgow) and 2 LD, the SNP gain both LD seats easily and another 8 Labour seats with ease. However they are relatively close with Labour in another 5 seats in Glasgow, so hell has frozen as I agree with Richard Nabavi.
If Labour has a fighting chance to keep half their Glasgow seats then it will be easier for them to hold in places where YES did not do as well as there.
Actually I think that, as expected, these results are very much in line with the national polls we've already seen, but not as bad for Labour as the most extreme ones.
So, Pulpstar is right that it's a massacre, but no more of a massacre than was to be expected.
I understood they said the same about Glencoe.
"it's a massacre, but no more of a massacre than was to be expected."
Think he's getting confused with Gavin (senior in IT) who the other Ed met in the park.
labours one business supporter and ed balls cant even remember his surname. Lord help us if this shower get the keys to number 10
I don't think they will, now. On these figures Labour are destroyed in Scotland. Is England so in love with Ed "catastrophically geeky" Miliband they will prefer him to Dave "horrible but competent toff" Cameron?
Nah. I am edging towards an official S K Tremayne prediction of another slender Tory plurality.
lets hope your right, I'm no fan of Cameron, but the thought of Ed M running the show scares the **** out of me
Important poll tonight I think - it's only one poll of course etc etc etc.
However recent polls suggested a move back to Lab - if tonight had been a Lab lead of 2% or 3% then that move would have started to look clear cut.
A tie tonight suggests true lead may well still be in the region of 1%.
It's about 1.5% now and it'll still be 1.5% at the election.
1.0% over the last 10 polls and 1.3% over the last 20 including the TNS outlier that may not really be a poll (not politically weighted). Without that, the lead is about 0.8% over the last 2 weeks. Greens now within 0.3% of the LDs.
The 11% lead definitely isn't a proper politically weighted poll.
ELBOW for last week (ending 1st Feb) Lab lead 0.8% inc. the TNS phone poll, 0.4% without. The former would be the second lowest Lab lead in ELBOW, the latter the lowest ever.
I see Rand Paul lost the GOP nomination in the last 24 hours.
But he was never going to win. And Christie, after his ridiculous stance on quarantining the returning nurse, has now yet more egg on his face over vaccines. It's looking like Rubio vs Walker.
I like Scott Walker - he's come a long way since his singing career in the 70s....
All in all from 15 seats, of which 13 are Labour (mostly in and around Glasgow) and 2 LD, the SNP gain both LD seats easily and another 8 Labour seats with ease. However they are relatively close with Labour in another 5 seats in Glasgow, so hell has frozen as I agree with Richard Nabavi.
If Labour has a fighting chance to keep half their Glasgow seats then it will be easier for them to hold in places where YES did not do as well as there.
Maybe, but a lot of seats the SNP are projected to gain easily are very far down their target list. Labour would do well to get 10 on a good night with these type of figures.
You are forgetting that the SNP's base are YES voters, they got 53% in Glasgow, one of the few places where it got a majority. My theory was that the SNP will gain every seat in places where YES got more than 40%, they are not doing as well in Glasgow as my theory suggested, but I doubt that the SNP will do better in places like Edinburgh where YES got 14% less.
Yes but Glasgow is where they need 50% to unseat Labour. In much of the rest of Scotland 35% to 45% will win them the seat.
Most of Edinburgh is at least a three way, or an SNP rises makes it a three way, a couple of them are genuine 4 way contests. 40% will win any seat in Edinburgh.
All in all from 15 seats, of which 13 are Labour (mostly in and around Glasgow) and 2 LD, the SNP gain both LD seats easily and another 8 Labour seats with ease. However they are relatively close with Labour in another 5 seats in Glasgow, so hell has frozen as I agree with Richard Nabavi.
If Labour has a fighting chance to keep half their Glasgow seats then it will be easier for them to hold in places where YES did not do as well as there.
Maybe, but a lot of seats the SNP are projected to gain easily are very far down their target list. Labour would do well to get 10 on a good night with these type of figures.
You are forgetting that the SNP's base are YES voters, they got 53% in Glasgow, one of the few places where it got a majority. My theory was that the SNP will gain every seat in places where YES got more than 40%, they are not doing as well in Glasgow as my theory suggested, but I doubt that the SNP will do better in places like Edinburgh where YES got 14% less.
Yes but Glasgow is where they need 50% to unseat Labour. In much of the rest of Scotland 35% to 45% will win them the seat.
Most of Edinburgh is at least a three way, or an SNP rises makes it a three way, a couple of them are genuine 4 way contests. 40% will win any seat in Edinburgh.
This could easily be something like: SNP 54 Lab 2 Con 2 LD 1. Of course, there's still time.
I note @Shadsy isn't top price on any of the SNP markets...
He's a smart cookie,
How long will the Betfair chap last in his job ?!
To be fair, the leak will have hit the night shift who won't have a clue. But Ladbrokes have had the wit to pull down the markets.
The files were uploaded to His Lordship's website at 09:13-14 on Tuesday morning, and they've simply been sitting there, waiting for his blogpost to be published at 11am tomorrow, or for someone to stumble across them.
I'm disturbed at how easily and willingly I am distracted from the Times headline. Some things are just so horrible one doesn't want to contemplate them.
I see Rand Paul lost the GOP nomination in the last 24 hours.
But he was never going to win. And Christie, after his ridiculous stance on quarantining the returning nurse, has now yet more egg on his face over vaccines. It's looking like Rubio vs Walker.
I like Scott Walker - he's come a long way since his singing career in the 70s....
All in all from 15 seats, of which 13 are Labour (mostly in and around Glasgow) and 2 LD, the SNP gain both LD seats easily and another 8 Labour seats with ease. However they are relatively close with Labour in another 5 seats in Glasgow, so hell has frozen as I agree with Richard Nabavi.
If Labour has a fighting chance to keep half their Glasgow seats then it will be easier for them to hold in places where YES did not do as well as there.
Maybe, but a lot of seats the SNP are projected to gain easily are very far down their target list. Labour would do well to get 10 on a good night with these type of figures.
You are forgetting that the SNP's base are YES voters, they got 53% in Glasgow, one of the few places where it got a majority. My theory was that the SNP will gain every seat in places where YES got more than 40%, they are not doing as well in Glasgow as my theory suggested, but I doubt that the SNP will do better in places like Edinburgh where YES got 14% less.
Yes but Glasgow is where they need 50% to unseat Labour. In much of the rest of Scotland 35% to 45% will win them the seat.
Most of Edinburgh is at least a three way, or an SNP rises makes it a three way, a couple of them are genuine 4 way contests. 40% will win any seat in Edinburgh.
The SNP average in Glasgow is 45%, that is 8% worse than the 53% of YES there, in Edinburgh YES had 39%, so there is little chance for gains for the SNP where YES got less than 40%, although they will probably get most seats above that threshold. That still stands.
Think he's getting confused with Gavin (senior in IT) who the other Ed met in the park.
labours one business supporter and ed balls cant even remember his surname. Lord help us if this shower get the keys to number 10
I don't think they will, now. On these figures Labour are destroyed in Scotland. Is England so in love with Ed "catastrophically geeky" Miliband they will prefer him to Dave "horrible but competent toff" Cameron?
Nah. I am edging towards an official S K Tremayne prediction of another slender Tory plurality.
lets hope your right, I'm no fan of Cameron, but the thought of Ed M running the show scares the **** out of me
That;s basically what I feel. I abhor this posho, effete Tory-LD government, but I do feel they possess a basic economic competence, and honesty, which is maybe the best we can expect, from a decayed political class. We need a mild English revolution, but that might have to wait. UKIP ain't the answer. Yet.
A Labour government under Miliband would be actively disastrous: clueless, bewildered and stupidly ideological at the same time. As they faced their total impotence in matters economic, thanks to the deficit, they would do some utterly gruesome stuff re destroying what remains of Britishness, to prove their "radicalism".
Just ghastly. Does anyone sane on here think a Miliband government would be more economically competent than the Tories? No. Do they think Miliband would make a difference apart from some more malignant gestures on multiculti? No.
Cameron is probably the best on offer. Extremely depressing, but trebeen a loy wqorseue.
yes considering the hand of cards they were dealt in 2010 they haven't done a bad job of stabilising the economy, returning us to growth, and keeping unemployment in the right direction. And ofcourse they have had to work with the treacherous libdems as well.
A useful summary of England-only polling on Vote UK, gives average scores since December of Con 33%, Lab 32%, UKIP 17%, Lib Dem 9%, Green 8%. That is, unfortunately, a 4.5% swing to Labour. But, the huge increase in the UKIP vote (and its likely concentration) makes things unpredictable.
How did you identify Cumbernaul, Kilsyth and Kintilloch East as being so good for SNP btw ?
I just used my patent method of working out how the referendum Yes vote was derived and then making assumptions about how that vote would subsequently move. To be honest, both that and the Coatbridge poll startle me in being so good for the SNP. My assumptions were a bit off.
I'm most pleased about the Gordon poll. It suggests I got the right general idea about where the SNP surge is greatest.
I'd be very wary of betting on the SNP in less Yes friendly areas until we have more constituency polling. There remain some great bets on the west coast though.
Wow wow and more wow! Hope the Paisley poll is accurate and we see the back of Douglas Alexander - that will be a sight to behold, as well as a lot of the miserable lot that are the SLAB MP's biting the dust. Bring on the early hours of 8th May!
What's striking about so many of those constituency polls is just how low the totals are for the Tories, Lib Dems and others in the SLAB SNP battle. So little pro-unionist vote for SLAB to squeeze in theory. Look at Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill as an example, just 12% there as an example. A lot of lost deposits for the Lib Dems!
How did you identify Cumbernaul, Kilsyth and Kintilloch East as being so good for SNP btw ?
I just used my patent method of working out how the referendum Yes vote was derived and then making assumptions about how that vote would subsequently move. To be honest, both that and the Coatbridge poll startle me in being so good for the SNP. My assumptions were a bit off.
I'm most pleased about the Gordon poll. It suggests I got the right general idea about where the SNP surge is greatest.
I'd be very wary of betting on the SNP in less Yes friendly areas until we have more constituency polling. There remain some great bets on the west coast though.
Inverclyde still looks a great value bet at near evens for me Antifrank
How did you identify Cumbernaul, Kilsyth and Kintilloch East as being so good for SNP btw ?
I just used my patent method of working out how the referendum Yes vote was derived and then making assumptions about how that vote would subsequently move. To be honest, both that and the Coatbridge poll startle me in being so good for the SNP. My assumptions were a bit off.
I'm most pleased about the Gordon poll. It suggests I got the right general idea about where the SNP surge is greatest.
I'd be very wary of betting on the SNP in less Yes friendly areas until we have more constituency polling. There remain some great bets on the west coast though.
Inverclyde still looks a great value bet at near evens for me Antifrank
Inverclyde was the only by-election this Parliament to see a Lab to Con swing - a massive 0.03%!
Wouldn't it be funny if the SNP ended up with 50 seats but Salmond lost Gordon?
Yes, but let's not be greedy. It's looking like it's going to be funny enough as it is.
Salmond will be fine on 43% in Gordon against a very split unionist opposition. If anyone thinks there's a chance of the unionist opposition coalescing around one candidate to match the SNP vote, then they're living in cloud cuckoo land. Still there is much better odds elsewhere compared to 1/7 Salmond in Gordon!
What's striking about so many of those constituency polls is just how low the totals are for the Tories, Lib Dems and others in the SLAB SNP battle. So little pro-unionist vote for SLAB to squeeze in theory. Look at Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill as an example, just 12% there as an example. A lot of lost deposits for the Lib Dems!
If the Scottish pattern follows for the Lib Dems across England then in seats they don't currently hold they will lose their deposit in every one. That;s 500+ lost deposits. Over £1m. Can they even afford that?
Gordon Brown as leader of Scottish Labour (Or Labour) would be facing nowhere near this sort of massacre I'm guessing.
Ed Miliband the Labour leader that lost Scotland.
Labour bucked the trend in scotland in 2010 because they had a scottish leader, David Miliband is english too, so it wouldn't have made a difference.
But it's the same story with the BQ in Canada, it's base was initially liberal left wing dissidents whose policies of independence were fanned by the Tory party in an unholy alliance during the 80's, which promised them autonomy and more powers, but they demanded more and more and the other regions of Canada got offended by the powergrab. In the end the Tory party split in 3, between those who opposed more power to Quebeq, those who wanted an independent Quebeq and those in the middle. The pro-independence Tories merged with the pro-independence lefties to form the BQ.
It took 20 years until the BQ collapsed as those lefties returned to the national parties after 10 years of national conservative rule and no hope of independence, they had enough.
What's striking about so many of those constituency polls is just how low the totals are for the Tories, Lib Dems and others in the SLAB SNP battle. So little pro-unionist vote for SLAB to squeeze in theory. Look at Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill as an example, just 12% there as an example. A lot of lost deposits for the Lib Dems!
If the Scottish pattern follows for the Lib Dems across England then in seats they don't currently hold they will lose their deposit in every one. That;s 500+ lost deposits. Over £1m. Can they even afford that?
Dunno, but it squares the circle of their seat and national polling imo.
So, where do we think the SPIN SNP spread will be when it reopens after the Ashcroft poll?
I'm guessing 40-43.
As I mentioned here earlier today, Spreadex's seats market appears to be open 24hrs. Their current SNP spread is 31-34, which may not be too far off the mark.
"More importantly, by no means all voters have made up their minds. Just over two thirds (68%) of switchers from Labour to the SNP say they definitely rule out voting Labour again in 2015 – which means nearly one third are at least open to the idea of returning."
Crumb of comfort for Labour? Also 69% of SNP voters want a SNP/Lab coalition.
Wow wow and more wow! Hope the Paisley poll is accurate and we see the back of Douglas Alexander - that will be a sight to behold, as well as a lot of the miserable lot that are the SLAB MP's biting the dust. Bring on the early hours of 8th May!
Maybe Douglas Alexander will be to Ed Miliband as Chris Patten was to John Major? Not the 1992 parallel Tories were hoping for...
Interesting: Ashcroft's two-stage question which has often had significantly different swings in English marginal makes almost no difference in Scotland - with some variation in the 2 LD seats.
There now has to some possibility that Labour will get no seats at all in Scotland.
Not a sausage.
Bugger all.
The Kevin Philip Bong party.
Forget pandas. The joke then would be that Scotland has less Labour MP's than Loch Ness monsters, because there might at least be the chance of one of them....
What's striking about so many of those constituency polls is just how low the totals are for the Tories, Lib Dems and others in the SLAB SNP battle. So little pro-unionist vote for SLAB to squeeze in theory. Look at Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill as an example, just 12% there as an example. A lot of lost deposits for the Lib Dems!
If the Scottish pattern follows for the Lib Dems across England then in seats they don't currently hold they will lose their deposit in every one. That;s 500+ lost deposits. Over £1m. Can they even afford that?
It won't happen. The LDs will hold 90-95% of their deposits in the south west, south east, London, etc. The Scots particularly dislike the LDs because they're propping up the hated Tories.
What's striking about so many of those constituency polls is just how low the totals are for the Tories, Lib Dems and others in the SLAB SNP battle. So little pro-unionist vote for SLAB to squeeze in theory. Look at Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill as an example, just 12% there as an example. A lot of lost deposits for the Lib Dems!
If the Scottish pattern follows for the Lib Dems across England then in seats they don't currently hold they will lose their deposit in every one. That;s 500+ lost deposits. Over £1m. Can they even afford that?
£500 per deposit makes £250k for 500 lost deposits.
Since the deposits are paid upfront then we'll see if the Lib Dems can afford it or not by whether they stand candidates.
"More importantly, by no means all voters have made up their minds. Just over two thirds (68%) of switchers from Labour to the SNP say they definitely rule out voting Labour again in 2015 – which means nearly one third are at least open to the idea of returning."
Crumb of comfort for Labour? Also 69% of SNP voters want a SNP/Lab coalition.
Because they rightly judge that Ed Miliband is so weak he will give them whatever they ask for....
There now has to some possibility that Labour will get no seats at all in Scotland.
Not a sausage.
Bugger all.
The Kevin Philip Bong party.
Forget pandas. The joke then would be that Scotland has less Labour MP's than Loch Ness monsters, because there might at least be the chance of one of them....
The irony is they're pretty likely to hold Dumfries & Galloway which is a Lab/Con seat; the SNP aren't quite strong enough to challenge. It's ironic because it used to be a safe Tory seat and one of the few Labour couldn't win until 1997.
The average for the SNP is ~48% in the seats polled. And they've won all but one.
The national average poll for the SNP is in this range.
It's not just here and these were postulated as the seats there would be a concentrated SNP vote diluting the vote elsewhere. But the only real outcome you can see is that it's EVERYWHERE and in most places the SNP don't need anything close to ~48%.
There's nowhere else for the SNP to have concentrated results to even this out. Maybe one or two of the seats they hold, maybe. But that's not enough to balance this out. This result does seem to indicate SNP 55 is very likely.
Interesting: Ashcroft's two-stage question which has often had significantly different swings in English marginal makes almost no difference in Scotland - with some variation in the 2 LD seats.
It's a massive credit to the Lib Dem's organisation that they are in with a smidgen of a shout in Gordon.
In nearly every one of these seats - these seats! - voters prefer DC to EM. Miliband scrapes a tie in Glasgow North.
Astonishing.
The thought occurs that the SNP could state explicitly that their price for a SNP-Lab coalition would be a new Labour leader. "Vote SNP, lose Miliband, get a Labour-SNP government"
And I thought I'd been severe when I worked on the assumption that they would lose three quarters of their votes when they were out of contention!
Interesting that two parties in Scotland have the stench of death about them.
My own working assumption for England is that the LibDems will lose a quarter of their 2010 vote where their current MP is standing again, and a third where their MP is retiring. That may also prove to be generous...
Why no polls in Edinburgh? Unless there are more to be released at 11am.
Wait for Round 2.
"My first round of Scottish constituency research therefore required a different approach. I decided to look primarily at Labour seats – including some with colossal majorities – in areas which voted yes to independence, or where the result was very close."
What's striking about so many of those constituency polls is just how low the totals are for the Tories, Lib Dems and others in the SLAB SNP battle. So little pro-unionist vote for SLAB to squeeze in theory. Look at Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill as an example, just 12% there as an example. A lot of lost deposits for the Lib Dems!
If the Scottish pattern follows for the Lib Dems across England then in seats they don't currently hold they will lose their deposit in every one. That;s 500+ lost deposits. Over £1m. Can they even afford that?
£500 per deposit makes £250k for 500 lost deposits.
Since the deposits are paid upfront then we'll see if the Lib Dems can afford it or not by whether they stand candidates.
Comments
Hur hur hur. How much cash is he going to divert from Labour marginals in the Midlands to try and salvage something in Scotland I wonder?
93 days to save
the NHSCross-overSo, Pulpstar is right that it's a massacre, but no more of a massacre than was to be expected.
My theory was that the SNP will gain every seat in places where YES got more than 40%, they are not doing as well in Glasgow as my theory suggested, but I doubt that the SNP will do better in places like Edinburgh where YES got 14% less.
Labour won this by nearly 50% last time!
He's a smart cookie,
How long will the Betfair chap last in his job ?!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_xcRE_XoPT0
Most of Edinburgh is at least a three way, or an SNP rises makes it a three way, a couple of them are genuine 4 way contests. 40% will win any seat in Edinburgh.
HUGE
A top-up on Cameron @ 5/2 is warranted too.
I'm disturbed at how easily and willingly I am distracted from the Times headline. Some things are just so horrible one doesn't want to contemplate them.
Ed Miliband - CRUCIFIED in Scotland.
Finally free of the betting yolk !
That still stands.
His charred body was then covered with rubble.
There is no negotiating with these people - they are worse than animals.
I'm most pleased about the Gordon poll. It suggests I got the right general idea about where the SNP surge is greatest.
I'd be very wary of betting on the SNP in less Yes friendly areas until we have more constituency polling. There remain some great bets on the west coast though.
Ed Miliband the Labour leader that lost Scotland.
Again.
Now Ed Miliband is in charge, it's burst, and it's burst with gusto.
The clues were there, over a million UK equivalent members too - they will have one hell of a ground game come May.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1NGdwU1IwV1VPc1k/view
Those kind people at Betfair have left their markets up.
But it's the same story with the BQ in Canada, it's base was initially liberal left wing dissidents whose policies of independence were fanned by the Tory party in an unholy alliance during the 80's, which promised them autonomy and more powers, but they demanded more and more and the other regions of Canada got offended by the powergrab.
In the end the Tory party split in 3, between those who opposed more power to Quebeq, those who wanted an independent Quebeq and those in the middle.
The pro-independence Tories merged with the pro-independence lefties to form the BQ.
It took 20 years until the BQ collapsed as those lefties returned to the national parties after 10 years of national conservative rule and no hope of independence, they had enough.
And with that Goodnight.
http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/5129/general-election-constituency-polls?page=10
http://islamqa.info/en/38622
Crumb of comfort for Labour? Also 69% of SNP voters want a SNP/Lab coalition.
The Saudis are just not so generous with their youtube execution videos
Astonishing.
Not a sausage.
Bugger all.
The Kevin Philip Bong party.
Forget pandas. The joke then would be that Scotland has less Labour MP's than Loch Ness monsters, because there might at least be the chance of one of them....
Since the deposits are paid upfront then we'll see if the Lib Dems can afford it or not by whether they stand candidates.
The average for the SNP is ~48% in the seats polled. And they've won all but one.
The national average poll for the SNP is in this range.
It's not just here and these were postulated as the seats there would be a concentrated SNP vote diluting the vote elsewhere. But the only real outcome you can see is that it's EVERYWHERE and in most places the SNP don't need anything close to ~48%.
There's nowhere else for the SNP to have concentrated results to even this out. Maybe one or two of the seats they hold, maybe. But that's not enough to balance this out. This result does seem to indicate SNP 55 is very likely.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2937574/Children-young-three-stand-crowds-watch-latest-ISIS-punishment-six-men-flogged-banished-Raqqa-adultery.html
It's a massive credit to the Lib Dem's organisation that they are in with a smidgen of a shout in Gordon.
Truly a bunker party.
My own working assumption for England is that the LibDems will lose a quarter of their 2010 vote where their current MP is standing again, and a third where their MP is retiring. That may also prove to be generous...
East Dunbartonshire is going SNP not Labour.
"My first round of Scottish constituency research therefore required a different approach. I decided to look primarily at Labour seats – including some with colossal majorities – in areas which voted yes to independence, or where the result was very close."