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  • The way things are going, it's a question as to which crossover we'll get first.
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    MikeL said:

    Important poll tonight I think - it's only one poll of course etc etc etc.

    However recent polls suggested a move back to Lab - if tonight had been a Lab lead of 2% or 3% then that move would have started to look clear cut.

    A tie tonight suggests true lead may well still be in the region of 1%.

    It's about 1.5% now and it'll still be 1.5% at the election.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    MikeL said:



    A tie tonight suggests true lead may well still be in the region of 1%.

    I have to chuckle at that :)

    Night everyone.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Great cartoon Marf!



  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    Socrates said:

    Floater said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Socrates said:

    Sean_F said:



    It would be a mistake to show a lack of resolve.

    I quite like the reaction of Sean Fear and our own Southam Observer: point out they're sad wankers that couldn't get laid and have a death fetish.
    We might think having a death fetish to be a criticism. Presumably they think this is something wonderful.

    But, frankly, worrying about what they think is a fool's errand. What we need to be is utterly ruthless in and focused on eliminating IS and similar offshoots from the face of this earth.

    The radical islamists do have a sort ofdeath fetish and have said so on several occasions ( I think off the top of my head one of the 7/7 bombers said something along those lines for example).

    Agree that we have to respond robustly and that includes defending free speech and printing bloody cartoons if we so choose.

    The beeb admits it is scared of lampooning Islam so self censors - things like this need to change and certain beliefs and behaviors have to be challenged.

    Imagine a christian referring to Muslims as second class citizens - then remind yourself about how Mehdi Hasan sees us.

    http://hurryupharry.org/2012/08/07/yet-more-ducking-and-diving-from-mehdi-hasan/
    Not just second class citizens, but animals.
    Mehdi Hasan and his ilk were beautifully skewered in this - http://hurryupharry.org/2015/01/14/being-an-islamist/.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,705

    The way things are going, it's a question as to which crossover we'll get first.

    Maybe nothing much will change between now and May. We will spend 4 months speculating, occasionally getting excited by noise and generally just waste time that could be more wisely spent in the bath.


  • JWisemann said:

    MikeL said:

    Important poll tonight I think - it's only one poll of course etc etc etc.

    However recent polls suggested a move back to Lab - if tonight had been a Lab lead of 2% or 3% then that move would have started to look clear cut.

    A tie tonight suggests true lead may well still be in the region of 1%.

    It's about 1.5% now and it'll still be 1.5% at the election.
    1.0% over the last 10 polls and 1.3% over the last 20 including the TNS outlier that may not really be a poll (not politically weighted). Without that, the lead is about 0.8% over the last 2 weeks. Greens now within 0.3% of the LDs.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,902
    SeanT Although ironically according to Panelbase a narrow majority of SNP voters favour EU withdrawal, whereas Scots as a whole want to stay in
    http://wingsoverscotland.com/dividing-lines/
  • For last minute shoppers, here's the table of Scottish constituency seats as they stand tonight:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1NGdwU1IwV1VPc1k/view?usp=sharing

    These prices will look very different by this time tomorrow, one way or another.
  • Good news for UKIP in Castle Point - the independent councillors will back the UKIP candidate at the GE: http://www.echo-news.co.uk/NEWS/11765574.New_Ukip_alliance_revealed/
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    SeanT said:

    Y0kel said:

    Comments downthread on the unfortunate Jordanian pilot.

    The Jordanians were prepared to deal but had severe doubts about whether their man was even alive. As late as the end of last week Jordanian officials trying to sort things in Turkey were reporting that confirmation was lacking.

    It didn't, however, stop the Jordanians from warning that if the pilot was killed they'd start moving forward executions of ISIS linked jihadis, a threat that was passed on fairly recently.

    In reality therefore possible statements emerging from Amman that this guy was killed many days, or possibly weeks ago are either public fronting or very recent information. Money is on the former. They didn't really know for sure, certainly upto a couple of days ago at least.

    A number of weeks ago I reported on here that there was an attempt to spring him from captivity but the raid barely got on the floor before they were back in the air again.

    It should be noted that the burning alive job is new to us but an order for this kind of execution was issued on the 20th January buy ISIS to their fighters. Whether this was specific to this pilot or a more general instruction we will probably not have too long to wait.

    "Unfortunate"??

    They captured the pilot weeks ago, tormented him and paraded him like an alien animal, beat him, goaded him and tortured him (judging by the photos and speeches), then ritually and lavishly burned him alive, on Twitter.

    Yes, fairly unfortunate.
    Yep, unfortunate that he was shot down and an unfortunate method of death but this is a conflict and none of this surprising. What do you expect them to do? This is how this bunch work.

    When one of their next video acts for winding up the Western World is to execute a Western woman they hold captive, it'll cause a new level of outrage but it is not a surprise, none of it is.


  • Jonathan said:


    Maybe nothing much will change between now and May. We will spend 4 months speculating, occasionally getting excited by noise and generally just waste time that could be more wisely spent in the bath.


    The water will have gone cold by then. ;)

  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,975
    I wonder who will be more angry with Christopher Hope. Lord Digby Jones for being reminded he is an ex Labour trade minister or Ed Miliband for the same reason?

    "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11388246/Ed-Milibands-anti-business-rhetoric-is-risking-British-jobs-warns-ex-Labour-trade-minister.html"
  • JWisemann said:

    MikeL said:

    Important poll tonight I think - it's only one poll of course etc etc etc.

    However recent polls suggested a move back to Lab - if tonight had been a Lab lead of 2% or 3% then that move would have started to look clear cut.

    A tie tonight suggests true lead may well still be in the region of 1%.

    It's about 1.5% now and it'll still be 1.5% at the election.
    1.0% over the last 10 polls and 1.3% over the last 20 including the TNS outlier that may not really be a poll (not politically weighted). Without that, the lead is about 0.8% over the last 2 weeks. Greens now within 0.3% of the LDs.

    The 11% lead definitely isn't a proper politically weighted poll.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited February 2015
    The Labour party announced a few days ago that it had scrapped all plans to run billboard posters of David Cameron during the general election campaign in a deliberate attempt to avoid “negative personalised adverts” and raise the tone of debate.

    So tonight the Daily Mirror instead decides to make it personal by going after David Cameron's wife, who also just so happens to share something in common with many thousands of other employees in the UK. I beginning to think that the Daily Mirror really won't mind too much if Ed Miliband loses this GE.

    Twitter
    Neil Henderson ‏@hendopolis 4 mins4 minutes ago
    MIRROR: How do you feel about your wife working for tax avoiders Mr Cameron? #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ChristianGuy_: Just when we thought the #Rotherham child sex abuse scandal couldn't get any worse: http://t.co/hMfXcopddd A grim Times front page tomorrow.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    antifrank said:

    For last minute shoppers, here's the table of Scottish constituency seats as they stand tonight:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1NGdwU1IwV1VPc1k/view?usp=sharing

    These prices will look very different by this time tomorrow, one way or another.

    Just stuck another 20 quid on Glasgow East.

    C'mon polling, c'mon polling.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    SeanT said:

    Floater said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Socrates said:

    Sean_F said:



    It would be a mistake to show a lack of resolve.

    I quite like the reaction of Sean Fear and our own Southam Observer: point out they're sad wankers that couldn't get laid and have a death fetish.
    We might think having a death fetish to be a criticism. Presumably they think this is something wonderful.

    But, frankly, worrying about what they think is a fool's errand. What we need to be is utterly ruthless in and focused on eliminating IS and similar offshoots from the face of this earth.

    The radical islamists do have a sort ofdeath fetish and have said so on several occasions ( I think off the top of my head one of the 7/7 bombers said something along those lines for example).

    Agree that we have to respond robustly and that includes defending free speech and printing bloody cartoons if we so choose.

    The beeb admits it is scared of lampooning Islam so self censors - things like this need to change and certain beliefs and behaviors have to be challenged.

    Imagine a christian referring to Muslims as second class citizens - then remind yourself about how Mehdi Hasan sees us.

    http://hurryupharry.org/2012/08/07/yet-more-ducking-and-diving-from-mehdi-hasan/
    Islamism is also known as Islamofascism. And Fascists always worship death. I pointed this out 2 years ago on t'Telegraph.


    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100227116/the-strange-death-of-fascist-europe-and-how-the-left-wants-to-revive-it/
    Paul Berman pointed out the ideological and historical links between Islamism and Fascism, specifically Nazi propaganda during WW2, well before you. (I'm not meaning to be critical BTW. Berman's book "The Flight of the Intellectuals" is very well worth reading on this topic.)

    Far from being like the Jews in the 1930's as some Islamists would have it, Islamism is far more like Nazism, down to the rabid anti-Semitism.

    But pace what TSE was saying earlier, we would do well not to isolate those who do not share these views and are like us, part of us, as British as us.

    Just as the sins of the fathers should not be visited on the sons, so the sins of one lot of Muslims should not be visited on others.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    @ChristianGuy_: Just when we thought the #Rotherham child sex abuse scandal couldn't get any worse: http://t.co/hMfXcopddd A grim Times front page tomorrow.

    Welcome to Labourland. Will stay Labour in May. depressing.,
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Front page of the Times tomorrow:

    Rotherham: politicians and police 'abused girls'

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B89B2tZIAAETfIi.jpg

    And I'm sure it happened in other towns too. Cameron has been a disgrace for failing to act on this at a national level.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    SeanT said:

    JWisemann said:

    MikeL said:

    Important poll tonight I think - it's only one poll of course etc etc etc.

    However recent polls suggested a move back to Lab - if tonight had been a Lab lead of 2% or 3% then that move would have started to look clear cut.

    A tie tonight suggests true lead may well still be in the region of 1%.

    It's about 1.5% now and it'll still be 1.5% at the election.
    Really?

    The electorate are still waiting to see the Full Miliband. Six weeks of Ed and his Yes-no-tuition-fees-mansion-tax-Dartmouth-Park crypto-Marxism.

    The Scots, however, did have a chance to give Ed a very thorough examination, during indyref, the result was that even though they decided to stay in the UK, they also decided they despised Ed even more than the Tory toff Dave Cameron, and they have since stopped supporting Scots Labour altogether, such that the party faces wipe-out north of the border.

    This is what happens when Ed, an example of political kryptonite, meets Superman, the voter. It is, therefore, quite difficult to see him in Number 10.
    That must be why Cameron is so eager to debate with him
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PickardJE: Ouch. Ed Balls tries to cite a business supporter but has forgotten his name, other than "Bill".... #newsnight
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited February 2015
    Socrates said:

    Front page of the Times tomorrow:

    Rotherham: politicians and police 'abused girls'

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B89B2tZIAAETfIi.jpg

    And I'm sure it happened in other towns too. Cameron has been a disgrace for failing to act on this at a national level.

    He gave the people the chance to elect a police commissioner. They chose one. The bastards.

    our wins South Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner by-election
    Alan Billings voted new Police and Crime Commissioner for South Yorkshire after by-election sparked by resignation of Shaun Wright in wake of Rotherham child sexual exploitation scandal
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ianbirrell: Oops! Ed Balls can't recall name of Labour's business backer: 'Bill, um, former chief executive of EDS. He's a big supporter.' #newsnight

    @BBCNewsnight: Ed Balls tells #newsnight Boots boss Stefano Pessina is a "producer", not a "predator" (despite mutual blows traded this week)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    Y0kel said:

    SeanT said:

    Y0kel said:

    Comments downthread on the unfortunate Jordanian pilot.

    The Jordanians were prepared to deal but had severe doubts about whether their man was even alive. As late as the end of last week Jordanian officials trying to sort things in Turkey were reporting that confirmation was lacking.

    It didn't, however, stop the Jordanians from warning that if the pilot was killed they'd start moving forward executions of ISIS linked jihadis, a threat that was passed on fairly recently.

    In reality therefore possible statements emerging from Amman that this guy was killed many days, or possibly weeks ago are either public fronting or very recent information. Money is on the former. They didn't really know for sure, certainly upto a couple of days ago at least.

    A number of weeks ago I reported on here that there was an attempt to spring him from captivity but the raid barely got on the floor before they were back in the air again.

    It should be noted that the burning alive job is new to us but an order for this kind of execution was issued on the 20th January buy ISIS to their fighters. Whether this was specific to this pilot or a more general instruction we will probably not have too long to wait.

    "Unfortunate"??

    They captured the pilot weeks ago, tormented him and paraded him like an alien animal, beat him, goaded him and tortured him (judging by the photos and speeches), then ritually and lavishly burned him alive, on Twitter.

    Yes, fairly unfortunate.
    Yep, unfortunate that he was shot down and an unfortunate method of death but this is a conflict and none of this surprising. What do you expect them to do? This is how this bunch work.

    When one of their next video acts for winding up the Western World is to execute a Western woman they hold captive, it'll cause a new level of outrage but it is not a surprise, none of it is.


    I rather fear that any Western woman held hostage by IS would face other horrors than (and before) simple execution.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    I see Rand Paul lost the GOP nomination in the last 24 hours.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT Although ironically according to Panelbase a narrow majority of SNP voters favour EU withdrawal, whereas Scots as a whole want to stay in
    http://wingsoverscotland.com/dividing-lines/

    I've thought for a while that the SNP (and the "Yes" campaign in the referendum) actually gets support from the type of people who vote UKIP elsewhere in the UK. It's just the easiest way in Scotland of casting a "none-of-the-above" vote.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Socrates said:

    Front page of the Times tomorrow:

    Rotherham: politicians and police 'abused girls'

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B89B2tZIAAETfIi.jpg

    And I'm sure it happened in other towns too. Cameron has been a disgrace for failing to act on this at a national level.

    We all suspected this fact to eventually emerge. What is most alarming is that the police have sullied their name in Rotheram and some have behaved like beasts.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited February 2015
    Surely even the BBC will have to go big on the Times story of politicians and police officers being involved in the rape of children in Rotherham?

    It's possible they won't mention the ethnic angle this time though.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    MikeL said:

    Important poll tonight I think - it's only one poll of course etc etc etc.

    However recent polls suggested a move back to Lab - if tonight had been a Lab lead of 2% or 3% then that move would have started to look clear cut.

    A tie tonight suggests true lead may well still be in the region of 1%.

    I think you're right that it's stationary at around 1%. But the more durable factor is that the situation is remarkably unchanged, and has been for months, regardless of good and bad news for each party in turn. It doesn't really matter whether the "real" lead is 2, 1 or 0 - the underlying picture is that Labour will, failing some dramatic changes, gain a lot of seats in England from the Tories and lose a lot in Scotland to the SNP, with a net effect of an anti-Conservative majority.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,902
    edited February 2015
    Danny565 Indeed, were Scotland to achieve independence the likes of Sturgeon may find what they have unleashed, which they hope will be a social democratic, internationalist utopia may turn out rather different to what they imagined with many nationalists as keen to get shot of Brussels as they are of Westminster!
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Socrates said:

    I see Rand Paul lost the GOP nomination in the last 24 hours.

    Clearing the way for the divine Sarah. ;)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @chrisshipitv: Bill Coley could be 'Bill the Businessman' who supports Labour. He sold British Energy to French giant EDF in 2009 #newsnight @iankatz1000

    Well, that's all-right then...
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    MikeK said:

    Socrates said:

    Front page of the Times tomorrow:

    Rotherham: politicians and police 'abused girls'

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B89B2tZIAAETfIi.jpg

    And I'm sure it happened in other towns too. Cameron has been a disgrace for failing to act on this at a national level.

    We all suspected this fact to eventually emerge. What is most alarming is that the police have sullied their name in Rotheram and some have behaved like beasts.
    MikeK said:

    Socrates said:

    Front page of the Times tomorrow:

    Rotherham: politicians and police 'abused girls'

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B89B2tZIAAETfIi.jpg

    And I'm sure it happened in other towns too. Cameron has been a disgrace for failing to act on this at a national level.

    We all suspected this fact to eventually emerge. What is most alarming is that the police have sullied their name in Rotheram and some have behaved like beasts.
    If central government STILL doesn't investigate this abuse nationally after it is found that the grooming gangs had members in the police and politics, then it will surely be because they have other members even further up. Thirty towns where it's happened and No 10 treats it as a local issue. Shameless.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Danny, totally agree with you on this point. The SNP tent just got a lot broader following the Indy Ref, and it now houses many new Yes supporting members who don't necessarily come from the same point on the political compass as many of the previous party faithful. I suspect this is already causing tensions and resentment in some of their rapidly expanding local associations.
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT Although ironically according to Panelbase a narrow majority of SNP voters favour EU withdrawal, whereas Scots as a whole want to stay in
    http://wingsoverscotland.com/dividing-lines/

    I've thought for a while that the SNP (and the "Yes" campaign in the referendum) actually gets support from the type of people who vote UKIP elsewhere in the UK. It's just the easiest way in Scotland of casting a "none-of-the-above" vote.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iankatz1000: Yo Sushi founder Simon Woodroffe on Labour approach to business: "It scares me." #newsnight
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Scott_P said:

    @chrisshipitv: Bill Coley could be 'Bill the Businessman' who supports Labour. He sold British Energy to French giant EDF in 2009 #newsnight @iankatz1000

    Well, that's all-right then...

    Ah, turns out it's worse...

    @chrisshipitv: Or Bill Thomas? Used to be at EDS and now Co-op Bank director who chairs Labour's Small Business Task Force. #Bill @iankatz1000

    I used to work for him.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited February 2015
    In 2012, when the Times published confidential documents revealing that police officers and council officials had known for at least a decade that girls in Rotherham were being groomed, pimped and trafficked by men with virtual impunity, the local authority's response was to demand a criminal inquiry into the leaking of the documents. The council threatened High Court action to block another story and also hired a firm of solicitors to expose the "security breach".

    This is some True Detective style shit.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Why isn't Professor Jay being put in charge of the child abuse inquiry nationally? The establishment can't trust her not to whitewash things?
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    MikeL said:

    Important poll tonight I think - it's only one poll of course etc etc etc.

    However recent polls suggested a move back to Lab - if tonight had been a Lab lead of 2% or 3% then that move would have started to look clear cut.

    A tie tonight suggests true lead may well still be in the region of 1%.

    I think you're right that it's stationary at around 1%. But the more durable factor is that the situation is remarkably unchanged, and has been for months, regardless of good and bad news for each party in turn. It doesn't really matter whether the "real" lead is 2, 1 or 0 - the underlying picture is that Labour will, failing some dramatic changes, gain a lot of seats in England from the Tories and lose a lot in Scotland to the SNP, with a net effect of an anti-Conservative majority.
    ofcourse there was a time in the recent past when people on this site said labour was stable at 38% and had hit their floor!
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Socrates said:

    I see Rand Paul lost the GOP nomination in the last 24 hours.

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jan/29/hillary-clinton-libya-war-genocide-narrative-rejec/print/

    Depressing the stories the media choose to focus on, thing is Paul will bury Clinton on this and the establishment will do everything they can to stop it.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    JWisemann said:

    MikeL said:

    Important poll tonight I think - it's only one poll of course etc etc etc.

    However recent polls suggested a move back to Lab - if tonight had been a Lab lead of 2% or 3% then that move would have started to look clear cut.

    A tie tonight suggests true lead may well still be in the region of 1%.

    It's about 1.5% now and it'll still be 1.5% at the election.
    Really?

    The electorate are still waiting to see the Full Miliband. Six weeks of Ed and his Yes-no-tuition-fees-mansion-tax-Dartmouth-Park crypto-Marxism.

    The Scots, however, did have a chance to give Ed a very thorough examination, during indyref, the result was that even though they decided to stay in the UK, they also decided they despised Ed even more than the Tory toff Dave Cameron, and they have since stopped supporting Scots Labour altogether, such that the party faces wipe-out north of the border.

    This is what happens when Ed, an example of political kryptonite, meets Superman, the voter. It is, therefore, quite difficult to see him in Number 10.
    That must be why Cameron is so eager to debate with him
    But yes, it is. Miliband is utterly gormless, comically untelegenic, and will flail haplessly through the election, however he is quite good at one-on-one debating - e.g. he has easily bested and humiliated Cameron at PMQs, several times.

    Miliband will therefore go into the Debates with nothing to lose, as the disregarded geek, and can only gain - his credibility cannot suffer vis-a-vis Cameron; what is far more likely is that he performs adequately, makes a couple of good jabs, and the media then hype him as the Comeback Kid, etc etc. All good for Labour.

    I can therefore see why Cameron is squirming to avoid mano a mano Debates he is expected to win easily, and instead wants a Green leader there to complicate things mightily for Miliband.

    Had you not worked this out? Oh well, I just did it for you. No charge.
    Thanks for the help.

    I think I must have been confused because I read a comment on this very site a few weeks ago saying that Cameron wouldn't try to worm his way out of the debates because he's so confident he'd beat Miliband, and because he's too pro-democracy to oppose debates. Hm, whoever could it have been who was saying that...
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited February 2015
    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    In 2012, when the Times published confidential documents revealing that police officers and council officials had known for at least a decade that girls in Rotherham were being groomed, pimped and trafficked by men with virtual impunity, the locla authority's response was to demand a criminal inquiry into the leaking of the documents. The council threatened High Court action to block another story and also hired a firm of solicitors to expose the "security breach".

    This is some True Detective style shit.

    It is gobsmacking. Enormous, enormous scandal. But shhhhh you can't mention THE BIGGEST STORY ON THE FRONT PAGE OF THE TIMES, because, remember, you are "obsessed".
    When the scale of the Rotherham abuse was truly unveiled, I expected the issue to explode across the front pages after town after town was looked at. But that never happened. Central government was virtually silent on it. These Muslim gangs must have some friends in some very high places.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Alistair said:

    antifrank said:

    For last minute shoppers, here's the table of Scottish constituency seats as they stand tonight:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1NGdwU1IwV1VPc1k/view?usp=sharing

    These prices will look very different by this time tomorrow, one way or another.

    Just stuck another 20 quid on Glasgow East.

    C'mon polling, c'mon polling.
    A fiver on Kircaldy and Cowdenbeath for me

    Couldn't resist the prospect of an SNP win there! Gordon Browns SLAB destruction would be complete. He is the man that makes Miliband look good.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    For anyone who hasn't read brookmyre, can I recommend A Big Boy Did it and Ran Away. One of the best "thrillers" of the last 15 years. I've read it half a dozen times.

    I am oddly bemused by anyone who can read a book half a dozen times. The only book I've read twice, as an adult, is Ulysses, and I only did that because there were bits I simply didn't understand the first time (it is, nonetheless, my all time favourite book, alongside Pride and Prejudice).

    How can you still gain something from a book on the sixth reading? Surely it's like using a teabag six times. After so many iterations all you get is hot water. No tea left.
    I've read The Count Of Monte Cristo four or five times...
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited February 2015
    FalseFlag said:

    Socrates said:

    I see Rand Paul lost the GOP nomination in the last 24 hours.

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jan/29/hillary-clinton-libya-war-genocide-narrative-rejec/print/

    Depressing the stories the media choose to focus on, thing is Paul will bury Clinton on this and the establishment will do everything they can to stop it.
    One unnamed intelligence official who was "familiar" with the case and a dozen more in the "community"? Sounds like the GOP-aligned newspaper the Washington Times getting one Republican inside the DIA to make some extreme comments, and then backing it up with a bunch of hacks from the PNAC crowd. When the only named source in the piece is from Gadaffi's son you know you're on thin ground.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    A fiver on Kircaldy and Cowdenbeath for me

    Couldn't resist the prospect of an SNP win there! Gordon Browns SLAB destruction would be complete. He is the man that makes Miliband look good.

    Apparently the poll has been leaked

    @britainelects: According to the leaked polls, fifteen seats have been polled and fourteen have the SNP ahead.

    @chrisshipitv: Blimey RT @MartynMcL: If this Ashcroft Scottish constituency poll leak is accurate-grim reading for Scottish Labour http://t.co/o1DiUxUwas
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Socrates said:

    Floater said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Socrates said:

    Sean_F said:



    It would be a mistake to show a lack of resolve.

    I quite like the reaction of Sean Fear and our own Southam Observer: point out they're sad wankers that couldn't get laid and have a death fetish.
    We might think having a death fetish to be a criticism. Presumably they think this is something wonderful.

    But, frankly, worrying about what they think is a fool's errand. What we need to be is utterly ruthless in and focused on eliminating IS and similar offshoots from the face of this earth.

    The radical islamists do have a sort ofdeath fetish and have said so on several occasions ( I think off the top of my head one of the 7/7 bombers said something along those lines for example).

    Agree that we have to respond robustly and that includes defending free speech and printing bloody cartoons if we so choose.

    The beeb admits it is scared of lampooning Islam so self censors - things like this need to change and certain beliefs and behaviors have to be challenged.

    Imagine a christian referring to Muslims as second class citizens - then remind yourself about how Mehdi Hasan sees us.

    http://hurryupharry.org/2012/08/07/yet-more-ducking-and-diving-from-mehdi-hasan/
    Not just second class citizens, but animals.
    Indeed


    http://news.sky.com/story/1420187/cctv-footage-exposes-slaughterhouse-cruelty


  • Scott_P said:

    Apparently the poll has been leaked

    @britainelects: According to the leaked polls, fifteen seats have been polled and fourteen have the SNP ahead.

    If that turns out to be accurate, it's not as bad for Labour as some of the recent polls!
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Socrates said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Socrates said:

    I see Rand Paul lost the GOP nomination in the last 24 hours.

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jan/29/hillary-clinton-libya-war-genocide-narrative-rejec/print/

    Depressing the stories the media choose to focus on, thing is Paul will bury Clinton on this and the establishment will do everything they can to stop it.
    One unnamed intelligence official who was "familiar" with the case and a dozen more in the "community"? Sounds like the GOP-aligned newspaper the Washington Times getting one Republican inside the DIA to make some extreme comments, and then backing it up with a bunch of hacks from the PNAC crowd. When the only named source in the piece is from Gadaffi's son you know you're on thin ground.
    A collective briefing by a number of intelligence sources, seems like some folks don't want Hilary as President and all that would imply for US foreign policy. Just the beginning.
  • So, where do we think the SPIN SNP spread will be when it reopens after the Ashcroft poll?

    I'm guessing 40-43.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Scott_P said:

    A fiver on Kircaldy and Cowdenbeath for me

    Couldn't resist the prospect of an SNP win there! Gordon Browns SLAB destruction would be complete. He is the man that makes Miliband look good.

    Apparently the poll has been leaked

    @britainelects: According to the leaked polls, fifteen seats have been polled and fourteen have the SNP ahead.

    @chrisshipitv: Blimey RT @MartynMcL: If this Ashcroft Scottish constituency poll leak is accurate-grim reading for Scottish Labour http://t.co/o1DiUxUwas
    The place they won't be ahead is borders most likely.
  • Just looked through the Ashcroft scot charts... supposedly. shame I couldn't see Kirkcaldy done but wow. If genuine.
  • Mark pack blog reporting on scot poll charts
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,902
    2 of the 4 seat figures leaked have SNP leads of 5 or 6%, so could still be won back by Labour over the campaign
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,155
    edited February 2015
    James Kelly has posted some constituencies.

    'I may as well just go ahead and publish these numbers, because they've already been posted in the comments section of the previous thread. I can't vouch for their accuracy - I suppose there's an outside chance this is a "trap" that was deliberately laid to outwit us, but it seems unlikely.

    Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber :

    SNP 50%
    Liberal Democrats 21%
    Labour 14%
    Conservatives 11%

    Airdrie and Shotts :

    SNP 47%
    Labour 39%
    Conservatives 7%
    Liberal Democrats 1%

    Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill :

    SNP 46%
    Labour 43%
    Conservatives 6%
    Liberal Democrats 1%

    Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East :

    SNP 52%
    Labour 34%
    Conservatives 6%
    Liberal Democrats 2%

    Dundee West :

    SNP 59%
    Labour 25%
    Conservatives 6%
    Liberal Democrats 3%

    Glasgow Central :

    SNP 45%
    Labour 35%
    Conservatives 5%
    Liberal Democrats 3%

    Glasgow East :

    SNP 51%
    Labour 37%
    Conservatives 4%
    Liberal Democrats 1%

    The other results to follow...'
  • Absolutely filling my boots at Betfair Sportsbook. 15/8 on Douglas Alexander's seat
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    2 of the 4 seat figures leaked have SNP leads of 5 or 6%, so could still be won back by Labour over the campaign

    Are they all Labour held seats or there some LD ones too?
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    JWisemann said:

    MikeL said:

    Important poll tonight I think - it's only one poll of course etc etc etc.

    However recent polls suggested a move back to Lab - if tonight had been a Lab lead of 2% or 3% then that move would have started to look clear cut.

    A tie tonight suggests true lead may well still be in the region of 1%.

    It's about 1.5% now and it'll still be 1.5% at the election.
    ......
    That must be why Cameron is so eager to debate with him
    But yes, it is. Miliband is utterly gormless, comically untelegenic, and will flail haplessly through the election, however he is quite good at one-on-one debating - e.g. he has easily bested and humiliated Cameron at PMQs, several times.

    Miliband will therefore go into the Debates with nothing to lose, as the disregarded geek, and can only gain - his credibility cannot suffer vis-a-vis Cameron; what is far more likely is that he performs adequately, makes a couple of good jabs, and the media then hype him as the Comeback Kid, etc etc. All good for Labour.

    I can therefore see why Cameron is squirming to avoid mano a mano Debates he is expected to win easily, and instead wants a Green leader there to complicate things mightily for Miliband.

    Had you not worked this out? Oh well, I just did it for you. No charge.
    Thanks for the help.

    I think I must have been confused because I read a comment on this very site a few weeks ago saying that Cameron wouldn't try to worm his way out of the debates because he's so confident he'd beat Miliband, and because he's too pro-democracy to oppose debates. Hm, whoever could it have been who was saying that...
    The person in power has nothing to gain from debates - no matter what party. Only with the total abject idiocy of Brown and the poor position of him and his party did thy consent. TV and Oppositions have regularly asked for debates and PMs have always loftily refused. As 2010 showed those PMs were proved right right. The debates did nothing - the one party that allegedly did well out of them lost 5 seats and then immediately lost 66% of their vote so any positive effect was not long lasting.
    We are not a two party system electing a president who is not generally part of the current govt and opposition.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    So, where do we think the SPIN SNP spread will be when it reopens after the Ashcroft poll?

    I'm guessing 40-43.

    If only I had online betting accounts...

    https://m.oddschecker.com/t/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-snp#politics-british-politics-next-uk-general-election-total-seats-snp
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,902
    All but one Glasgow seat polled going SNP
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:
    You hacker.
    No point to wait till 11 am.
  • "Advisers to Jim Murphy, the recently elected Scottish Labour leader, told The Independent they did not expect the Ashcroft numbers to significantly differ from other polls which had predicted calamity for Labour in Scotland this May."

    The kite flying in question has the spinny fingerprints of john mcternan the Murphy appointed Chief of Staff, the man who sunk julie gillard in australia by working for her, the man who sunk jack mcconnell in 2007 by working for him, the man who was interviewed twice under caution while working for blair on cash for honours, the man who once described scotland as "narrow and racist"

    Question; Given that Murphy is 50 per cent behind Sturgeon in the Yougov poll among women could he not have found a decent women to be chief of staff rather than this mcternan charactor?
  • Cumbernauld 5/4 with an 18 point lead
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,902
    Speedy Well the link seems to be up over twitter now
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    JWisemann said:

    MikeL said:

    Important poll tonight I think - it's only one poll of course etc etc etc.

    However recent polls suggested a move back to Lab - if tonight had been a Lab lead of 2% or 3% then that move would have started to look clear cut.

    A tie tonight suggests true lead may well still be in the region of 1%.

    It's about 1.5% now and it'll still be 1.5% at the election.


    This is what happens when Ed, an example of political kryptonite, meets Superman, the voter. It is, therefore, quite difficult to see him in Number 10.
    That must be why Cameron is so eager to debate with him
    But yes, it is. Miliband is utterly gormless, comically untelegenic, and will flail haplessly through the election, however he is quite good at one-on-one debating - e.g. he has easily bested and humiliated Cameron at PMQs, several times.

    Miliband will therefore go into the Debates with nothing to lose, as the disregarded geek, and can only gain - his credibility cannot suffer vis-a-vis Cameron; what is far more likely is that he performs adequately, makes a couple of good jabs, and the media then hype him as the Comeback Kid, etc etc. All good for Labour.

    I can therefore see why Cameron is squirming to avoid mano a mano Debates he is expected to win easily, and instead wants a Green leader there to complicate things mightily for Miliband.

    Had you not worked this out? Oh well, I just did it for you. No charge.
    Thanks for the help.

    I think I must have been confused because I read a comment on this very site a few weeks ago saying that Cameron wouldn't try to worm his way out of the debates because he's so confident he'd beat Miliband, and because he's too pro-democracy to oppose debates. Hm, whoever could it have been who was saying that...
    Certainly wasn't me. If you can source and link a quote by me saying all that I will sodomise myself with a saxophone, and that's a promise.

    I've always maintained that Miliband will want the debates more than Cameron, for reasons cited. I've also, always, maintained that Cameron will be forced to yield, and he will have to Debate. I still believe the latter is true, though Cameron is proving cleverer than I expected.
    Cameron is either very clever or very lucky. He has maintained the Union while destroying SLAB.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Scott_P said:

    Apparently the poll has been leaked

    @britainelects: According to the leaked polls, fifteen seats have been polled and fourteen have the SNP ahead.

    If that turns out to be accurate, it's not as bad for Labour as some of the recent polls!
    No, It's a massacre.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    LABOUR MASSACRE
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Labour are Airdrie AND SHOT
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2015
    So the only seats polled where the SNP has a fight (to be exact, a non-SNP party having a chance) are:
    Glasgow South, Glasgow SW, Glasgow NW, Glasgow NE and Coatbridge.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Absolutely filling my boots at Betfair Sportsbook. 15/8 on Douglas Alexander's seat

    How on earth have you got betting accounts that let you fill your boots on markets like this?????
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Labour winning in Glasgow North East
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    TGOHF said:

    Socrates said:

    Front page of the Times tomorrow:

    Rotherham: politicians and police 'abused girls'

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B89B2tZIAAETfIi.jpg

    And I'm sure it happened in other towns too. Cameron has been a disgrace for failing to act on this at a national level.

    He gave the people the chance to elect a police commissioner. They chose one. The bastards.

    our wins South Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner by-election
    Alan Billings voted new Police and Crime Commissioner for South Yorkshire after by-election sparked by resignation of Shaun Wright in wake of Rotherham child sexual exploitation scandal
    Plus there have been 2 attempts to get an enquiry going and both times stopped by bogus protests. The attempt to weaponise the crimes is as sickening as the crimes themselves.
    There has already been widespread criticism of the police and local authority from Cameron and the conservatives. But the govt of the day is not responsible for making prosecutions. It would be dangerous if it did.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Spectator_CH: Ed Balls names “Bill somebody” as Labour’s sole business supporter in car crash interview http://t.co/lxCxphPhtx by @frasernelson
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Caveat: always remember, under FPTP seats disappear at least twice as fast as votes do...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour winning in Glasgow North East

    Douglas & Danny Alexander losing their seats though.
  • isam said:

    Absolutely filling my boots at Betfair Sportsbook. 15/8 on Douglas Alexander's seat

    How on earth have you got betting accounts that let you fill your boots on markets like this?????
    Betfair Sportsbook is the only one [since it came into being after I had exhausted everything else, and I decided not to do the usual stuff on it]. I suspect after the last 10 minutes that will no longer be the case tomorrow.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,902
    edited February 2015
    Speedy Airdrie and Shotts, Coatbridge-Chryston-Bellshill, Paisley-Renfreshire-South and W Dunbartonshire have SNP leads under 10% as well as the Glasgow seats you mention. In Gordon, Salmond is ahead but only on 43%, LD, Lab and Tory combined are on 51%. Had Salmond stood in Glasgow East he would be on 51%, in Dundee West on 59%
  • Pulpstar said:

    Labour winning in Glasgow North East

    Exactly - relatively good for Labour!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    So from tomorrow's poll that has leaked early, we can conclude that one of the places where the SNP has some issues is Glasgow excluding it's city centre.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Labour winning in Glasgow North East

    SNP still to select their candidate, 2pm tomorrow the deadline for voting.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ScottyNational: NHS News: Based on Ashcroft Poll, all hospital Maternity & Labour Wards to be renamed Maternity & SNP Wards after General Election.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    A fiver on Kircaldy and Cowdenbeath for me

    Couldn't resist the prospect of an SNP win there! Gordon Browns SLAB destruction would be complete. He is the man that makes Miliband look good.

    Apparently the poll has been leaked

    @britainelects: According to the leaked polls, fifteen seats have been polled and fourteen have the SNP ahead.

    @chrisshipitv: Blimey RT @MartynMcL: If this Ashcroft Scottish constituency poll leak is accurate-grim reading for Scottish Labour http://t.co/o1DiUxUwas
    The place they won't be ahead is borders most likely.
    It would be quite amusing if the Tories were projected to hold on to their one Scottish seat as Labour's dissolved all around.
  • So which adjacent seats also make sense? Paisley North, I presume...
  • This is like Holyrood 2011 all over again..
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Dear me, Danny Alexander has a bit of an uphill battle.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    So which adjacent seats also make sense? Paisley North, I presume...

    Yes, nailed on I reckon.,
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    A fiver on Kircaldy and Cowdenbeath for me

    Couldn't resist the prospect of an SNP win there! Gordon Browns SLAB destruction would be complete. He is the man that makes Miliband look good.

    Apparently the poll has been leaked

    @britainelects: According to the leaked polls, fifteen seats have been polled and fourteen have the SNP ahead.

    @chrisshipitv: Blimey RT @MartynMcL: If this Ashcroft Scottish constituency poll leak is accurate-grim reading for Scottish Labour http://t.co/o1DiUxUwas
    The place they won't be ahead is borders most likely.
    It would be quite amusing if the Tories were projected to hold on to their one Scottish seat as Labour's dissolved all around.
    The Tories might gain a few in the border regions from the LD.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    @Anti9frank identified Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kintilloch East in his blog post.

    18 pts ahead at 5-4 ... the biggest rick in the history of political betting ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Ha! Labour not laughing at those Scots Tories/pandas gags now are you?
  • Pulpstar said:

    So which adjacent seats also make sense? Paisley North, I presume...

    Yes, nailed on I reckon.,
    And the 5/4 in the 3-way Dunbartonshire East
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Pulpstar said:

    So which adjacent seats also make sense? Paisley North, I presume...

    Yes, nailed on I reckon.,
    And the 5/4 in the 3-way Dunbartonshire East
    :D I got on that one at 50-1
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Its worth noting that the SNP only began selecting their candidates in Scottish Westminster seats over the last few weeks. Not only are they cutting it a bit fine for the GE campaign, but also some will not have made it in time for Lord Ashcroft constituency polling. As OGH keeps telling us, this is all about individual constituencies.

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour winning in Glasgow North East

    Exactly - relatively good for Labour!
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Scott_P

    '@Spectator_CH: Ed Balls names “Bill somebody” as Labour’s sole business supporter in car crash interview http://t.co/lxCxphPhtx by @frasernelson'

    Think he's getting confused with Gavin (senior in IT) who the other Ed met in the park.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Betfair Sportsbook are going to be seriously pissed off at Lord Ashcroft tommorow.
  • As recently as September you could get 33/1 on Glasgow East, 50/1 on East Dunbartonshire, 12/1 on Livingston, etc etc
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    All in all from 15 seats, of which 13 are Labour (mostly in and around Glasgow) and 2 LD, the SNP gain both LD seats easily and another 8 Labour seats with ease.
    However they are relatively close with Labour in another 5 seats in Glasgow, so hell has frozen as I agree with Richard Nabavi.

    If Labour has a fighting chance to keep half their Glasgow seats then it will be easier for them to hold in places where YES did not do as well as there.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Sunday's Superbowl had 61 commercials, at $4.5 million for 30 seconds.

    The best one, hands down, was Anheuser-Busch's puppy ad....

    http://admeter.usatoday.com/results/2015
This discussion has been closed.