The average for the SNP is ~48% in the seats polled. And they've won all but one.
The national average poll for the SNP is in this range.
It's not just here and these were postulated as the seats there would be a concentrated SNP vote diluting the vote elsewhere. But the only real outcome you can see is that it's EVERYWHERE and in most places the SNP don't need anything close to ~48%.
There's nowhere else for the SNP to have concentrated results to even this out. Maybe one or two of the seats they hold, maybe. But that's not enough to balance this out. This result does seem to indicate SNP 55 is very likely.
In nearly every one of these seats - these seats! - voters prefer DC to EM. Miliband scrapes a tie in Glasgow North.
Astonishing.
The thought occurs that the SNP could state explicitly that their price for a SNP-Lab coalition would be a new Labour leader. "Vote SNP, lose Miliband, get a Labour-SNP government"
*coughs and draws attention to this morning's discussion*
I've got a 10/1 bet that all three of Nick Clegg, David Cameron and Ed Miliband will go this year. I'm happy enough with that.
In nearly every one of these seats - these seats! - voters prefer DC to EM. Miliband scrapes a tie in Glasgow North.
Astonishing.
The thought occurs that the SNP could state explicitly that their price for a SNP-Lab coalition would be a new Labour leader. "Vote SNP, lose Miliband, get a Labour-SNP government"
*coughs and draws attention to this morning's discussion*
I've got a 10/1 bet that all three of Nick Clegg, David Cameron and Ed Miliband will go this year. I'm happy enough with that.
In nearly every one of these seats - these seats! - voters prefer DC to EM. Miliband scrapes a tie in Glasgow North.
Astonishing.
The thought occurs that the SNP could state explicitly that their price for a SNP-Lab coalition would be a new Labour leader. "Vote SNP, lose Miliband, get a Labour-SNP government"
*coughs and draws attention to this morning's discussion*
I've got a 10/1 bet that all three of Nick Clegg, David Cameron and Ed Miliband will go this year. I'm happy enough with that.
What's striking about so many of those constituency polls is just how low the totals are for the Tories, Lib Dems and others in the SLAB SNP battle. So little pro-unionist vote for SLAB to squeeze in theory. Look at Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill as an example, just 12% there as an example. A lot of lost deposits for the Lib Dems!
If the Scottish pattern follows for the Lib Dems across England then in seats they don't currently hold they will lose their deposit in every one. That;s 500+ lost deposits. Over £1m. Can they even afford that?
£500 per deposit makes £250k for 500 lost deposits.
Since the deposits are paid upfront then we'll see if the Lib Dems can afford it or not by whether they stand candidates.
My error, thought it was £2k for some reason.
It's still cheap to stand for Parliament. If the deposit had kept pace since 1918 it would now be somewhere between £6k and £46k...
This borders East Dunbartonshire, Jo Swinson's seat. And the border is not particularly different in terms of demographic.
East Dunbartonshire is going SNP not Labour.
Wasn't there a big No vote in East Dunbartonshire ?
This isn't about YES or NO, it's about Ask the Audience, the Wisdom of Crowds. If you are a Scottish voter, the best way to get a good deal for Scotland, and yourself, is to vote SNP in 2015, as that will exert maximum leverage on a likely weak Westminster English government (whether Labour or Tory). Thus the Scots voter is acting intelligently, ensuring a generous deal for his or her country.
Will the Scots vote for the (now income tax raising) SNP in Holyrood in such numbers in 2016? Highly unlikely. I can't see the logic, unless you are desperate for another immediate referendum so you can vote YES (to which end, see the price of oil, and continuing chaos in euroland).
Labour will be wiped out in 2015, but I suspect they will return to Holyrood in numbers a year later.
Of course that is too late for Miliband, Difficult to see him winning in 2015 on these stats.
Still think this doesn't really nause Milibands chances of being PM to be honest
This borders East Dunbartonshire, Jo Swinson's seat. And the border is not particularly different in terms of demographic.
East Dunbartonshire is going SNP not Labour.
Wasn't there a big No vote in East Dunbartonshire ?
Yes, middle-class East voted No by a big margin and working-class West voted No narrowly.
East Dunbartonshire is split between the wealthier Milngavie and Bearsden in it's west and Kirkintilloch/Bishopbriggs/Lennoxtown in the east. It voted 43% Yes.
Currently it is a Liberal marginal over Labour. The SNP were 4th. The Yes vote is not tiny, the Liberals in adjacent North Glasgow have just been wiped out. A whole lot of Milngavie and Bearsden REALLY don't like Labour.
One of the most game-changing opinion polls I've ever seen. take that, daily Yougov.
The figures that stand out for me is which parties have contacted voters. LDs strong in their 2 seats, but SNP dominant everywhere. These are in areas with Lab MPs and councillors, and some SNP candidates not selected. For the SNP to win the ground game is vital against the SLAB machine - so they can keep momentum up right to polling day
One of the most game-changing opinion polls I've ever seen. take that, daily Yougov.
The figures that stand out for me is which parties have contacted voters. LDs strong in their 2 seats, but SNP dominant everywhere. These are in areas with Lab MPs and councillors, and some SNP candidates not selected. For the SNP to win the ground game is vital against the SLAB machine - so they can keep momentum up right to polling day
That's what the membership surge is doing for them.
Must feel great to be backing someone other than Labour in Scotland now, a real sense of optimism - Scottish Labour is THE most negative party ever !
This borders East Dunbartonshire, Jo Swinson's seat. And the border is not particularly different in terms of demographic.
East Dunbartonshire is going SNP not Labour.
Wasn't there a big No vote in East Dunbartonshire ?
This isn't about YES or NO, it's about Ask the Audience, the Wisdom of Crowds. If you are a Scottish voter, the best way to get a good deal for Scotland, and yourself, is to vote SNP in 2015, as that will exert maximum leverage on a likely weak Westminster English government (whether Labour or Tory). Thus the Scots voter is acting intelligently, ensuring a generous deal for his or her country.
Will the Scots vote for the (now income tax raising) SNP in Holyrood in such numbers in 2016? Highly unlikely. I can't see the logic, unless you are desperate for another immediate referendum so you can vote YES (to which end, see the price of oil, and continuing chaos in euroland).
Labour will be wiped out in 2015, but I suspect they will return to Holyrood in numbers a year later.
Of course that is too late for Miliband, Difficult to see him winning in 2015 on these stats.
Still think this doesn't really nause Milibands chances of being PM to be honest
He's going to lose 30ish seats in Scotland (wiping out much of Labour's FPTP advantage, btw).. Yes, this does him serious damage. Today's YouGov has him tied with Cameron, and we all know he suffers in the limelight. Imagine an election campaign?
Right now, gun to my head, if forced, I would predict a very narrow Tory plurality, and Cameron remaining in Number 10.
But my official prediction is: I haven't got a clue.
Scotland does nothing for a Conservative plurality
This borders East Dunbartonshire, Jo Swinson's seat. And the border is not particularly different in terms of demographic.
East Dunbartonshire is going SNP not Labour.
Wasn't there a big No vote in East Dunbartonshire ?
This isn't about YES or NO, it's about Ask the Audience, the Wisdom of Crowds. If you are a Scottish voter, the best way to get a good deal for Scotland, and yourself, is to vote SNP in 2015, as that will exert maximum leverage on a likely weak Westminster English government (whether Labour or Tory). Thus the Scots voter is acting intelligently, ensuring a generous deal for his or her country.
Will the Scots vote for the (now income tax raising) SNP in Holyrood in such numbers in 2016? Highly unlikely. I can't see the logic, unless you are desperate for another immediate referendum so you can vote YES (to which end, see the price of oil, and continuing chaos in euroland).
Labour will be wiped out in 2015, but I suspect they will return to Holyrood in numbers a year later.
Of course that is too late for Miliband, Difficult to see him winning in 2015 on these stats.
Still think this doesn't really nause Milibands chances of being PM to be honest
He's going to lose 30ish seats in Scotland (wiping out much of Labour's FPTP advantage, btw).. Yes, this does him serious damage. Today's YouGov has him tied with Cameron, and we all know he suffers in the limelight. Imagine an election campaign?
Right now, gun to my head, if forced, I would predict a very narrow Tory plurality, and Cameron remaining in Number 10.
But my official prediction is: I haven't got a clue.
It certainly is tough to call... I just get the impression cameron will find it hard to get coalition partners this time, but am guessing as much as anyone else
One of the most game-changing opinion polls I've ever seen. take that, daily Yougov.
The figures that stand out for me is which parties have contacted voters. LDs strong in their 2 seats, but SNP dominant everywhere. These are in areas with Lab MPs and councillors, and some SNP candidates not selected. For the SNP to win the ground game is vital against the SLAB machine - so they can keep momentum up right to polling day
What SLAB machine?
They have barely needed to campaign in any seat for 40 years. They have no members. All they have is fading The Daily Record and #BBCbias and that is not going to be as blatant as it was during indyref.
The poll says 79% of people hadn't been contacted by any party?
Begs the question what Scottish Labour are doing though, they're meant to be going out all out to rescue the situation, especially in the winnable seats.
YouGov are picking up a 21.5% national swing. Ashcroft is picking up a 24% swing in the 13 Labour seats he polled [and there will be a few more that fit the profile]. The implication is to expect about 19-20% elsewhere.
Btw this could well wipe out Labour's vote/seat advantage
Yup. Scotland was one of the main reasons they had that advantage in the first place: they've always managed to sweep the table in Scotland despite doing relatively mediocre in voteshare (they've never - NEVER - got over 50% in Scotland, a threshold that in their best elections they clear with ease in Wales and Northern England).
YouGov are picking up a 21.5% national swing. Ashcroft is picking up a 24% swing in the 13 Labour seats he polled [and there will be a few more that fit the profile]. The implication is to expect about 20% elsewhere.
Yes the swing in the Edinburgh area won't be as high.
That said Artist does make a good point. If every SNP voter who says they'd "consider" voting Labour actually did so (without Labour losing any votes they currently have), that would be enough to save all those seats bar Dundee West.
That's the straw Labour can clutch at, anyway, to stop them all jumping out the office windows tomorrow.
Btw this could well wipe out Labour's vote/seat advantage
Yup. Scotland was one of the main reasons they had that advantage in the first place: they've always managed to sweep the table in Scotland despite doing relatively mediocre in voteshare (they've never - NEVER - got over 50% in Scotland, a threshold that in their best elections they clear with ease in Wales and Northern England).
This is precisely why I laid off the Votes/Seats switcheroo on the Betfair Electoral Bias market.
This borders East Dunbartonshire, Jo Swinson's seat. And the border is not particularly different in terms of demographic.
East Dunbartonshire is going SNP not Labour.
Wasn't there a big No vote in East Dunbartonshire ?
This isn't about YES or NO, it's about Ask the Audience, the Wisdom of Crowds. If you are a Scottish voter, the best way to get a good deal for Scotland, and yourself, is to vote SNP in 2015, as that will exert maximum leverage on a likely weak Westminster English government (whether Labour or Tory). Thus the Scots voter is acting intelligently, ensuring a generous deal for his or her country.
Will the Scots vote for the (now income tax raising) SNP in Holyrood in such numbers in 2016? Highly unlikely. I can't see the logic, unless you are desperate for another immediate referendum so you can vote YES (to which end, see the price of oil, and continuing chaos in euroland).
Labour will be wiped out in 2015, but I suspect they will return to Holyrood in numbers a year later.
Of course that is too late for Miliband, Difficult to see him winning in 2015 on these stats.
Still think this doesn't really nause Milibands chances of being PM to be honest
Did you mis-type? Of course it makes a difference. Ed won't be PM with these figures.
This borders East Dunbartonshire, Jo Swinson's seat. And the border is not particularly different in terms of demographic.
East Dunbartonshire is going SNP not Labour.
Wasn't there a big No vote in East Dunbartonshire ?
This isn't about YES or NO, it's about Ask the Audience, the Wisdom of Crowds. If you are a Scottish voter, the best way to get a good deal for Scotland, and yourself, is to vote SNP in 2015, as that will exert maximum leverage on a likely weak Westminster English government (whether Labour or Tory). Thus the Scots voter is acting intelligently, ensuring a generous deal for his or her country.
Will the Scots vote for the (now income tax raising) SNP in Holyrood in such numbers in 2016? Highly unlikely. I can't see the logic, unless you are desperate for another immediate referendum so you can vote YES (to which end, see the price of oil, and continuing chaos in euroland).
Labour will be wiped out in 2015, but I suspect they will return to Holyrood in numbers a year later.
Of course that is too late for Miliband, Difficult to see him winning in 2015 on these stats.
Still think this doesn't really nause Milibands chances of being PM to be honest
Did you mis-type? Of course it makes a difference. Ed won't be PM with these figures.
Of course he will. It potentially improves change his chance of being PM due to 55 SNP being better than 41 Labour and 11 Liberal. It hurts Cameron as he loses between 10 and 11 potential Liberal allies.
This borders East Dunbartonshire, Jo Swinson's seat. And the border is not particularly different in terms of demographic.
East Dunbartonshire is going SNP not Labour.
Wasn't there a big No vote in East Dunbartonshire ?
This isn't about YES or NO, it's about Ask the Audience, the Wisdom of Crowds. If you are a Scottish voter, the best way to get a good deal for Scotland, and yourself, is to vote SNP in 2015, as that will exert maximum leverage on a likely weak Westminster English government (whether Labour or Tory). Thus the Scots voter is acting intelligently, ensuring a generous deal for his or her country.
Will the Scots vote for the (now income tax raising) SNP in Holyrood in such numbers in 2016? Highly unlikely. I can't see the logic, unless you are desperate for another immediate referendum so you can vote YES (to which end, see the price of oil, and continuing chaos in euroland).
Labour will be wiped out in 2015, but I suspect they will return to Holyrood in numbers a year later.
Of course that is too late for Miliband, Difficult to see him winning in 2015 on these stats.
Still think this doesn't really nause Milibands chances of being PM to be honest
Did you mis-type? Of course it makes a difference. Ed won't be PM with these figures.
I've laid off some at 2.28 in the next PM market, hopefully can reback higher again tommorow.
This borders East Dunbartonshire, Jo Swinson's seat. And the border is not particularly different in terms of demographic.
East Dunbartonshire is going SNP not Labour.
Wasn't there a big No vote in East Dunbartonshire ?
This isn't about YES or NO, it's about Ask the Audience, the Wisdom of Crowds. If you are a Scottish voter, the best way to get a good deal for Scotland, and yourself, is to vote SNP in 2015, as that will exert maximum leverage on a likely weak Westminster English government (whether Labour or Tory). Thus the Scots voter is acting intelligently, ensuring a generous deal for his or her country.
Will the Scots vote for the (now income tax raising) SNP in Holyrood in such numbers in 2016? Highly unlikely. I can't see the logic, unless you are desperate for another immediate referendum so you can vote YES (to which end, see the price of oil, and continuing chaos in euroland).
Labour will be wiped out in 2015, but I suspect they will return to Holyrood in numbers a year later.
Of course that is too late for Miliband, Difficult to see him winning in 2015 on these stats.
Still think this doesn't really nause Milibands chances of being PM to be honest
Did you mis-type? Of course it makes a difference. Ed won't be PM with these figures.
Of course he will. It potentially improves change his chance of being PM due to 55 SNP being better than 41 Labour and 11 Liberal. It hurts Cameron as he loses between 10 and 11 potential Liberal allies.
I don't think it does much to his chances either BUT THE MARKETS WILL THINK THAT.
Could be a great time to back Ed Mili PM tommorow, hoping for a drift.
I take it that Mike is now a believer in the SNP surge!
I think there is something in the YES/NO areas but only in size of relative swing. The SNP vote is up by nearly 20 per cent everywhere and that will be enough to carry them to victory just about everywhere. And so while the swing might be less in say some of the Edinburgh seats they don't need more than 35-40 per cent against a divided opposition.
The absolutely key thing is that they have weighted by 2010 which means that the swing is UNDERESTIMATED in virtually every seat. The reason is false recall from 2010-2011 as all pollsters have found. Obviously this applies most in seats where the SNP did very well in 2011 and so the SNP is adjusted down in, for example, Gordon from the raw data.
In other words if you can get say an evens bet on Salmond taking more than 50 per cent of the vote in Gordon then take it and go all in. The best bet at the odds overall must be Cumbernauld.
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I've got a 10/1 bet that all three of Nick Clegg, David Cameron and Ed Miliband will go this year. I'm happy enough with that.
Currently it is a Liberal marginal over Labour. The SNP were 4th. The Yes vote is not tiny, the Liberals in adjacent North Glasgow have just been wiped out. A whole lot of Milngavie and Bearsden REALLY don't like Labour.
Has to be an SNP gain.
Job done.
The figures that stand out for me is which parties have contacted voters. LDs strong in their 2 seats, but SNP dominant everywhere. These are in areas with Lab MPs and councillors, and some SNP candidates not selected. For the SNP to win the ground game is vital against the SLAB machine - so they can keep momentum up right to polling day
Must feel great to be backing someone other than Labour in Scotland now, a real sense of optimism - Scottish Labour is THE most negative party ever !
But Labour's morale is going to be tonked.
They have barely needed to campaign in any seat for 40 years. They have no members. All they have is fading The Daily Record and #BBCbias and that is not going to be as blatant as it was during indyref.
Begs the question what Scottish Labour are doing though, they're meant to be going out all out to rescue the situation, especially in the winnable seats.
LOL How on earth will Labour know how to fight in Coatbridge. Almost an East Ham size majority there last time !!!
That's the straw Labour can clutch at, anyway, to stop them all jumping out the office windows tomorrow.
God Bless that market.
2010 result: Lab 67%, SNP 17%. Labour lead 50%.
Ashcroft polling: SNP 46%, Lab 43%. SNP lead 3%.
Could be a great time to back Ed Mili PM tommorow, hoping for a drift.
I think there is something in the YES/NO areas but only in size of relative swing. The SNP vote is up by nearly 20 per cent everywhere and that will be enough to carry them to victory just about everywhere. And so while the swing might be less in say some of the Edinburgh seats they don't need more than 35-40 per cent against a divided opposition.
The absolutely key thing is that they have weighted by 2010 which means that the swing is UNDERESTIMATED in virtually every seat. The reason is false recall from 2010-2011 as all pollsters have found. Obviously this applies most in seats where the SNP did very well in 2011 and so the SNP is adjusted down in, for example, Gordon from the raw data.
In other words if you can get say an evens bet on Salmond taking more than 50 per cent of the vote in Gordon then take it and go all in. The best bet at the odds overall must be Cumbernauld.