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Partisan economies – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,677
edited September 12 in General
Partisan economies – politicalbetting.com

For all the boats talk watch the economy too Latest @Ipsos_in_the_UK economic optimism index has public at net -60. Only Gordon Brown at similar levels 13 months in. Work for Labour to do. pic.twitter.com/t2vwtjEM4Q

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Comments

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,733
    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,712
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 16,080
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    It’s becoming ever clearer that Britain’s primary economic problem is penny-pinching households and businesses. Labour have managed to suppress confidence even further since their election. Reeves’ number one priority at the budget should be to boost confidence.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 16,080
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,712
    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,095
    edited September 12
    Reeves paying the price of her anti business budget

    And why does she have to continually stand on a building site with a hard hat on ?

    https://news.sky.com/story/zero-growth-in-july-as-economy-continued-to-slow-official-figures-show-13429036
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,165
    4Chan claiming to have the identity of the shooter. DYOR...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,733
    For all the government's talk of getting workshy dole bludgers off benefits and back into work, the public knows the jobs aren't there.

    Whether it is teenagers looking for paper rounds, school leavers looking for retail jobs, graduates looking for early-career starts, middle-aged professionals made redundant, or even, at a time of acknowledged shortages, newly-qualified GPs looking for practices, demand has dried up.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,110
    I see the right is as gullible as ever, or the grifter politicians who lead them believe they are.



    https://x.com/adamscochran/status/1966289139172520194?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,812
    I guess the other thing that could lead to a split is if the economy is doing well in the cities and richer areas of the countries, but doing even worse than usual elsewhere.

    London, Edinburgh, the Highlands have been buzzing this summer. No sense at all of an economic crisis.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    TimS said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    It’s becoming ever clearer that Britain’s primary economic problem is penny-pinching households and businesses. Labour have managed to suppress confidence even further since their election. Reeves’ number one priority at the budget should be to boost confidence.
    The number one way she can do that is by resigning. Would have a lot more confidence after that.

    But no, she'll put taxes up more and more, and people will feel the pinch more and more, and keep what they have more and more, and not invest or spend.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,461
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    For all the government's talk of getting workshy dole bludgers off benefits and back into work, the public knows the jobs aren't there.

    Whether it is teenagers looking for paper rounds, school leavers looking for retail jobs, graduates looking for early-career starts, middle-aged professionals made redundant, or even, at a time of acknowledged shortages, newly-qualified GPs looking for practices, demand has dried up.

    Recent UC applications show most new applications are from those too ill/compromised to work.

    It’s a choice between an ill workforce or importing a healthy one. No easy choices in politics.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 34,192
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Reeves paying the price of her anti business budget

    And why does she have to continually stand on a building site with a hard hat on ?

    https://news.sky.com/story/zero-growth-in-july-as-economy-continued-to-slow-official-figures-show-13429036

    You liked it when Boris did that.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 16,080
    edited September 12
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,250
    Reeves fiscal rules could have been ditched last year when the market was in a more forgiving mood . The budget is very late so the uncertainty will stop businesses from making investment decisions .

    Immigration falling will also count against growth as this really has been the mainstay to keep that ticking over .

    The GDP per capita figures tell a sorry story , years of underinvestment have come home to roost .

    Reeves needs a miracle .
  • LeonLeon Posts: 65,111
    Phase 2 is going brilliantly. Two weeks in and Starmer has lost his deputy prime minister, his chief diplomat - both in painful scandals - and the economy is dead on arrival

    Phase 5 - around Christmas - should see the extirpation of all sentient life in the UK. At least the Labour Cabinet will survive
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,045
    edited September 12
    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Astonishingly, I think our anaemic growth is actually above all of them in the last six months.

    https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/217881/economics/uk-fastest-growth-in-the-g7-in-2025-but-no-one-impressed/
    "No one impressed"

    I blame Trump.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,733
    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    He could toast it with English Sparkling Wine.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 16,080
    Slackbladder said:

    TimS said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    It’s becoming ever clearer that Britain’s primary economic problem is penny-pinching households and businesses. Labour have managed to suppress confidence even further since their election. Reeves’ number one priority at the budget should be to boost confidence.
    The number one way she can do that is by resigning. Would have a lot more confidence after that.

    But no, she'll put taxes up more and more, and people will feel the pinch more and more, and keep what they have more and more, and not invest or spend.
    Of course one way to square the circle and raise tax while encouraging spending would be to slash tax relief on pension savings. Not that I’d be recommending that of course.

    Another would be to tax undeveloped land.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,812
    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    I have just been promoted. Trying to decide between being sensible and upping the ISA contributions (primarily overseas investments) or spending £3,500 on a UK-made titanium gravel bike.

    But if there's an MBE in it...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,110
    edited September 12
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    He could toast it with English Sparkling Wine.
    Didn’t you get the memo?

    ENGLISH FIZZ
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,127
    Eabhal said:

    I guess the other thing that could lead to a split is if the economy is doing well in the cities and richer areas of the countries, but doing even worse than usual elsewhere.

    London, Edinburgh, the Highlands have been buzzing this summer. No sense at all of an economic crisis.

    Leicester is busy too, and the Isle of Wight when I was there a couple of weeks back.

    Of my 2 boys and their partners 3 have new jobs after months of looking, all jobs with good prospects of career progress.

    I think the doom and gloom is overdone. At worst growth is a little anaemic rather than being in recession.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,045
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    The new watch is very good at diagnosing sleep apnea.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,812
    edited September 12
    nico67 said:

    Reeves fiscal rules could have been ditched last year when the market was in a more forgiving mood . The budget is very late so the uncertainty will stop businesses from making investment decisions .

    Immigration falling will also count against growth as this really has been the mainstay to keep that ticking over .

    The GDP per capita figures tell a sorry story , years of underinvestment have come home to roost .

    Reeves needs a miracle .

    The GDP per capita thing is quite recent - COVID + the Boriswave. I don't see any reason why that can't pick up again. I know it's fun to blame the Chancellor of the day but 80%+ of the economy is entirely out of their hands, for good or bad.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,712
    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    I need a peerage for my sacrifice, if you want to see how damaging inflation is then is it.

    Last year the top end iPhone 16 Pro Max cost £1,599 and the top end iPhone 17 Pro Max is costing be £1,999.

    Okay, it is has gone from a 1TB storage to a 2TB storage but still.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,231
    nico67 said:

    Reeves fiscal rules could have been ditched last year when the market was in a more forgiving mood . The budget is very late so the uncertainty will stop businesses from making investment decisions .

    Immigration falling will also count against growth as this really has been the mainstay to keep that ticking over .

    The GDP per capita figures tell a sorry story , years of underinvestment have come home to roost .

    Reeves needs a miracle .

    See isn't going to get one - there main sources of extra tax revenue will take years to bring on board (hint it would take 2-3 years to redo council tax which is why it needed doing last November).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,319
    Yes, Labour need voters to feel better off but this is not the same as them being better off.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,812
    edited September 12
    Was the Trans bullet casings thing a far-right hoax in the end? Struggling to work out what the truth is but note quite a few papers still have that claim up, with others suggesting it was a false report from some dodgy law enforcement official.

    Difficult to know what to trust in Trump's America.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,045
    No, it couldn't.

    REPORTER: What's your reaction to Russia's drone incursion into Poland?

    TRUMP: It could've been a mistake
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1966248958415470804

    Source in Europe told me Matthew Whitaker, the US ambassador to NATO, didn’t even show up to the emergency meeting in Brussels yesterday. He sent his deputy.
    https://x.com/michaeldweiss/status/1966267094603080166
  • eekeek Posts: 31,231
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    I need a peerage for my sacrifice, if you want to see how damaging inflation is then is it.

    Last year the top end iPhone 16 Pro Max cost £1,599 and the top end iPhone 17 Pro Max is costing be £1,999.

    Okay, it is has gone from a 1TB storage to a 2TB storage but still.
    Amnd how much of that storage do you actually need - I've gone from 1tb to 512gb because I don't need the space and I suspect I could get away with 256gb if I wasn't planning to keep it 2-3 years so need some leeway in case things demand that space.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,449
    edited September 12
    Eabhal said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    I have just been promoted. Trying to decide between being sensible and upping the ISA contributions (primarily overseas investments) or spending £3,500 on a UK-made titanium gravel bike.

    But if there's an MBE in it...
    Pity the [edit] watches and phones're not made in the UK. Not that TSE had much choice.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,165
    Eabhal said:

    Was the Trans bullet casings thing a far-right hoax in the end? Struggling to work out what the truth is but note quite a few papers still have that claim up, with others suggesting it was a false report from some dodgy law enforcement official.

    Difficult to know what to trust in Trump's America.

    total bullshit
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,963
    TimS said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    It’s becoming ever clearer that Britain’s primary economic problem is penny-pinching households and businesses. Labour have managed to suppress confidence even further since their election. Reeves’ number one priority at the budget should be to boost confidence.
    I don't say you're wrong, but so many households known to me can't stretch their income to cover the full week. Spending every penny isn't penny pinching, it's feeling the pinch badly.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,963
    Slackbladder said:

    TimS said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    It’s becoming ever clearer that Britain’s primary economic problem is penny-pinching households and businesses. Labour have managed to suppress confidence even further since their election. Reeves’ number one priority at the budget should be to boost confidence.
    The number one way she can do that is by resigning. Would have a lot more confidence after that.

    But no, she'll put taxes up more and more, and people will feel the pinch more and more, and keep what they have more and more, and not invest or spend.
    Who's the economic genius you'd have SKS appoint in her stead? I'm afraid I don't see one.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,319
    Leon said:

    Phase 2 is going brilliantly. Two weeks in and Starmer has lost his deputy prime minister, his chief diplomat - both in painful scandals - and the economy is dead on arrival

    Phase 5 - around Christmas - should see the extirpation of all sentient life in the UK. At least the Labour Cabinet will survive

    You must be looking forward to the election in 2029. Perhaps lay a bottle down, one of those that improves with age.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,712
    eek said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    I need a peerage for my sacrifice, if you want to see how damaging inflation is then is it.

    Last year the top end iPhone 16 Pro Max cost £1,599 and the top end iPhone 17 Pro Max is costing be £1,999.

    Okay, it is has gone from a 1TB storage to a 2TB storage but still.
    Amnd how much of that storage do you actually need - I've gone from 1tb to 512gb because I don't need the space and I suspect I could get away with 256gb if I wasn't planning to keep it 2-3 years so need some leeway in case things demand that space.
    I am currently using around 700 GB mostly, music downloaded (my own collection), I have a lot of 4K recordings and that takes up a lot of memory, yes I upload them to the cloud but still.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 16,080
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    I need a peerage for my sacrifice, if you want to see how damaging inflation is then is it.

    Last year the top end iPhone 16 Pro Max cost £1,599 and the top end iPhone 17 Pro Max is costing be £1,999.

    Okay, it is has gone from a 1TB storage to a 2TB storage but still.
    Microsoft emailed me today to say my MS365 subscription is going up from 59.99 to 84.99.

    This is discretionary inflation. Which means growing margins, which means more money for corporates to invest in productivity growth.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,231
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    I need a peerage for my sacrifice, if you want to see how damaging inflation is then is it.

    Last year the top end iPhone 16 Pro Max cost £1,599 and the top end iPhone 17 Pro Max is costing be £1,999.

    Okay, it is has gone from a 1TB storage to a 2TB storage but still.
    Also apple charge £400 for 1tb of storage so it's the exact same price with zero inflation, in fact all the products I've looked at are priced the same as last year except for the air that replaces the plus.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,853
    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    I guess the other thing that could lead to a split is if the economy is doing well in the cities and richer areas of the countries, but doing even worse than usual elsewhere.

    London, Edinburgh, the Highlands have been buzzing this summer. No sense at all of an economic crisis.

    Leicester is busy too, and the Isle of Wight when I was there a couple of weeks back.

    Of my 2 boys and their partners 3 have new jobs after months of looking, all jobs with good prospects of career progress.

    I think the doom and gloom is overdone. At worst growth is a little anaemic rather than being in recession.
    Busy? Don't talk to me about busy. Have you ever tried to park in Dartmouth?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,991
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Phase 2 is going brilliantly. Two weeks in and Starmer has lost his deputy prime minister, his chief diplomat - both in painful scandals - and the economy is dead on arrival

    Phase 5 - around Christmas - should see the extirpation of all sentient life in the UK. At least the Labour Cabinet will survive

    You must be looking forward to the election in 2029. Perhaps lay a bottle down, one of those that improves with age.
    Leon - or whatever identity he is using then - will just vote Labour again.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 16,080
    AnneJGP said:

    TimS said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    It’s becoming ever clearer that Britain’s primary economic problem is penny-pinching households and businesses. Labour have managed to suppress confidence even further since their election. Reeves’ number one priority at the budget should be to boost confidence.
    I don't say you're wrong, but so many households known to me can't stretch their income to cover the full week. Spending every penny isn't penny pinching, it's feeling the pinch badly.
    That’s always been true of many (even most) households. But it is emphatically not true of many many households. And it is absolutely emphatically true of many businesses that have got into the habit of sweating assets rather than investing in growth.

    Our national savings rate is at historically high levels, and private (both household and corporate) debt is the lowest it’s been since the noughties. No wonder government debt is so high.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,812
    AnneJGP said:

    TimS said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    It’s becoming ever clearer that Britain’s primary economic problem is penny-pinching households and businesses. Labour have managed to suppress confidence even further since their election. Reeves’ number one priority at the budget should be to boost confidence.
    I don't say you're wrong, but so many households known to me can't stretch their income to cover the full week. Spending every penny isn't penny pinching, it's feeling the pinch badly.
    Both can be true at the at the same time. You can also enter a doom loop where middle income people are saving because they fear a recession even though the underlying economics look ok, but that fall in demand causes one anyway.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,853
    AnneJGP said:

    Slackbladder said:

    TimS said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    It’s becoming ever clearer that Britain’s primary economic problem is penny-pinching households and businesses. Labour have managed to suppress confidence even further since their election. Reeves’ number one priority at the budget should be to boost confidence.
    The number one way she can do that is by resigning. Would have a lot more confidence after that.

    But no, she'll put taxes up more and more, and people will feel the pinch more and more, and keep what they have more and more, and not invest or spend.
    Who's the economic genius you'd have SKS appoint in her stead? I'm afraid I don't see one.
    Ditto the leadership genius who'd replace SKS. I'm afraid I don't see one.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,449
    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    I need a peerage for my sacrifice, if you want to see how damaging inflation is then is it.

    Last year the top end iPhone 16 Pro Max cost £1,599 and the top end iPhone 17 Pro Max is costing be £1,999.

    Okay, it is has gone from a 1TB storage to a 2TB storage but still.
    Microsoft emailed me today to say my MS365 subscription is going up from 59.99 to 84.99.

    This is discretionary inflation. Which means growing margins, which means more money for corporates to invest in productivity growth.
    Isn't that because they are trying it on with the extra charge for AI? They did wirth me but I got it knocked back down to the 'classic' at a considerable saving.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,712
    MarqueeMark said:

    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    I guess the other thing that could lead to a split is if the economy is doing well in the cities and richer areas of the countries, but doing even worse than usual elsewhere.

    London, Edinburgh, the Highlands have been buzzing this summer. No sense at all of an economic crisis.

    Leicester is busy too, and the Isle of Wight when I was there a couple of weeks back.

    Of my 2 boys and their partners 3 have new jobs after months of looking, all jobs with good prospects of career progress.

    I think the doom and gloom is overdone. At worst growth is a little anaemic rather than being in recession.
    Busy? Don't talk to me about busy. Have you ever tried to park in Dartmouth?
    You drive to Exmouth?

    Why don't you use a helicopter like most normal people?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 65,111
    Theuniondivvie said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    He could toast it with English Sparkling Wine.
    Didn’t you get the memo?

    ENGLISH FIZZ
    lol. Does this upset you?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,250
    Eabhal said:

    Was the Trans bullet casings thing a far-right hoax in the end? Struggling to work out what the truth is but note quite a few papers still have that claim up, with others suggesting it was a false report from some dodgy law enforcement official.

    Difficult to know what to trust in Trump's America.

    It was put out deliberately to fit the narrative the WH wanted . It’s too late now , it’s already accepted as fact by the right and has done the rounds on social media .
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,853
    Theuniondivvie said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    He could toast it with English Sparkling Wine.
    Didn’t you get the memo?

    ENGLISH FIZZ
    Hard to think of the term SCOTTISH FIZZ taking off in any context...
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,838
    Battlebus said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    For all the government's talk of getting workshy dole bludgers off benefits and back into work, the public knows the jobs aren't there.

    Whether it is teenagers looking for paper rounds, school leavers looking for retail jobs, graduates looking for early-career starts, middle-aged professionals made redundant, or even, at a time of acknowledged shortages, newly-qualified GPs looking for practices, demand has dried up.

    Recent UC applications show most new applications are from those too ill/compromised to work.

    It’s a choice between an ill workforce or importing a healthy one. No easy choices in politics.
    Or the definitions of “ill” are wrong.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,754
    Eabhal said:

    I guess the other thing that could lead to a split is if the economy is doing well in the cities and richer areas of the countries, but doing even worse than usual elsewhere.

    London, Edinburgh, the Highlands have been buzzing this summer. No sense at all of an economic crisis.

    Sadly not.

    There are plenty of cognitive studies on this. Left to our own devices, we don't think then conclude based on the evidence. We emote and then choose the evidence to fit. Hence the sudden flip in perception when the government changes.

    Ultra-partisan media just makes that effect worse, but it was there before.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,853
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    I guess the other thing that could lead to a split is if the economy is doing well in the cities and richer areas of the countries, but doing even worse than usual elsewhere.

    London, Edinburgh, the Highlands have been buzzing this summer. No sense at all of an economic crisis.

    Leicester is busy too, and the Isle of Wight when I was there a couple of weeks back.

    Of my 2 boys and their partners 3 have new jobs after months of looking, all jobs with good prospects of career progress.

    I think the doom and gloom is overdone. At worst growth is a little anaemic rather than being in recession.
    Busy? Don't talk to me about busy. Have you ever tried to park in Dartmouth?
    You drive to Exmouth?

    Why don't you use a helicopter like most normal people?
    You need to be Royal Navy VIP to get that chopper gig into the Naval College.

    Working on it...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,045
    Eabhal said:

    Was the Trans bullet casings thing a far-right hoax in the end? Struggling to work out what the truth is but note quite a few papers still have that claim up, with others suggesting it was a false report from some dodgy law enforcement official.

    Difficult to know what to trust in Trump's America.

    It's absolute balls.
    The stamped markings on cartridge cases are universal, and these were merely manufacturer markings.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 16,080
    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    I need a peerage for my sacrifice, if you want to see how damaging inflation is then is it.

    Last year the top end iPhone 16 Pro Max cost £1,599 and the top end iPhone 17 Pro Max is costing be £1,999.

    Okay, it is has gone from a 1TB storage to a 2TB storage but still.
    Microsoft emailed me today to say my MS365 subscription is going up from 59.99 to 84.99.

    This is discretionary inflation. Which means growing margins, which means more money for corporates to invest in productivity growth.
    Isn't that because they are trying it on with the extra charge for AI? They did wirth me but I got it knocked back down to the 'classic' at a considerable saving.
    This seems to be the basic pricing. I just double checked.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,127
    MarqueeMark said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    He could toast it with English Sparkling Wine.
    Didn’t you get the memo?

    ENGLISH FIZZ
    Hard to think of the term SCOTTISH FIZZ taking off in any context...
    Ahem.

    Iron Bru original recipie is available in all good grocery shops.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 34,192
    No wonder the economy has gone to the dogs. The Government are sending all those productive foreign workers home.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/companies-uk-visa-sponsor-licences-revoked-home-office-foreign-worker-rules-b1247150.html
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,854
    Eabhal said:

    Was the Trans bullet casings thing a far-right hoax in the end? Struggling to work out what the truth is but note quite a few papers still have that claim up, with others suggesting it was a false report from some dodgy law enforcement official.

    Difficult to know what to trust in Trump's America.

    You mean the nonesense about the headstamps that are common on brass?

    Your thing that in the land of gun nuts…
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,449
    MarqueeMark said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    He could toast it with English Sparkling Wine.
    Didn’t you get the memo?

    ENGLISH FIZZ
    Hard to think of the term SCOTTISH FIZZ taking off in any context...
    Just wait 20-30 years, when it's dates that grow on the South Downs. The greywackes of the Border hills have real potential.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 65,111
    Eabhal said:

    Was the Trans bullet casings thing a far-right hoax in the end? Struggling to work out what the truth is but note quite a few papers still have that claim up, with others suggesting it was a false report from some dodgy law enforcement official.

    Difficult to know what to trust in Trump's America.

    The bullet stuff is likely bollocks

    But online sleuths have a plausible suspect. A loser lefty transgender “digital artist” from Utah, who has written songs about Kirk being dead at 31. The face closely matches the FBI images

    However it’s not a definite wicket. Umpire’s call
  • TimSTimS Posts: 16,080
    MarqueeMark said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    He could toast it with English Sparkling Wine.
    Didn’t you get the memo?

    ENGLISH FIZZ
    Hard to think of the term SCOTTISH FIZZ taking off in any context...
    Made in Scotland, from girders.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,773
    edited September 12
    Ros Atkins good piece on Israel-Gaza. I like the data / evidence journalism approach anyway, but there are some who do it badly, so I'm grateful for those who do it well (sort of on topic as the header quotes Burn-Murdoch)

    BBC News - Ros Atkins on... Israel's war in Gaza and proportionality
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr5r76e127do
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,853
    Nigelb said:

    No, it couldn't.

    REPORTER: What's your reaction to Russia's drone incursion into Poland?

    TRUMP: It could've been a mistake
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1966248958415470804

    Source in Europe told me Matthew Whitaker, the US ambassador to NATO, didn’t even show up to the emergency meeting in Brussels yesterday. He sent his deputy.
    https://x.com/michaeldweiss/status/1966267094603080166

    TRUMP: It could've been a mistake...for me to back Russia. Should have gone with Ukraine. And got the Peace Prize...
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,838
    edited September 12
    Leon said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    He could toast it with English Sparkling Wine.
    Didn’t you get the memo?

    ENGLISH FIZZ
    lol. Does this upset you?
    I forced my French partners to drink Rathfinny last night. They were rather impressed
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,853
    Foxy said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    He could toast it with English Sparkling Wine.
    Didn’t you get the memo?

    ENGLISH FIZZ
    Hard to think of the term SCOTTISH FIZZ taking off in any context...
    Ahem.

    Iron Bru original recipie is available in all good grocery shops.
    That's the best they've got?

    Okaaaay...

    "Appellation contrôlée...in a can!"
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,963
    StillWaters said:

    Battlebus said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    For all the government's talk of getting workshy dole bludgers off benefits and back into work, the public knows the jobs aren't there.

    Whether it is teenagers looking for paper rounds, school leavers looking for retail jobs, graduates looking for early-career starts, middle-aged professionals made redundant, or even, at a time of acknowledged shortages, newly-qualified GPs looking for practices, demand has dried up.

    Recent UC applications show most new applications are from those too ill/compromised to work.

    It’s a choice between an ill workforce or importing a healthy one. No easy choices in politics.
    Or the definitions of “ill” are wrong.
    When the jobs aren't there, employers are free to turn down those with shaky health records. The standard for being too poorly to be employed changes even if the government criteria don't.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,449
    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    I need a peerage for my sacrifice, if you want to see how damaging inflation is then is it.

    Last year the top end iPhone 16 Pro Max cost £1,599 and the top end iPhone 17 Pro Max is costing be £1,999.

    Okay, it is has gone from a 1TB storage to a 2TB storage but still.
    Microsoft emailed me today to say my MS365 subscription is going up from 59.99 to 84.99.

    This is discretionary inflation. Which means growing margins, which means more money for corporates to invest in productivity growth.
    Isn't that because they are trying it on with the extra charge for AI? They did wirth me but I got it knocked back down to the 'classic' at a considerable saving.
    This seems to be the basic pricing. I just double checked.
    It is, only "basic" has been redefined, AIUI. I had to make a positive decision to revert to 'classic', so it's no longer the default.

    https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2025/02/microsoft-365-price-hike/
    https://www.which.co.uk/news/article/how-to-avoid-microsoft-365-price-rises-aGNYY5O92as9

    Always possible there's geographical differences, of course.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,045
    Eabhal said:

    AnneJGP said:

    TimS said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    It’s becoming ever clearer that Britain’s primary economic problem is penny-pinching households and businesses. Labour have managed to suppress confidence even further since their election. Reeves’ number one priority at the budget should be to boost confidence.
    I don't say you're wrong, but so many households known to me can't stretch their income to cover the full week. Spending every penny isn't penny pinching, it's feeling the pinch badly.
    Both can be true at the at the same time. You can also enter a doom loop where middle income people are saving because they fear a recession even though the underlying economics look ok, but that fall in demand causes one anyway.
    Personally, the reason I'm not spending is that I have three children. I didn't have to pay tuition fees and even as late as 2005, I only needed around £20k for a desposit for a decent house. I reckon I need to find at least £100k for each of them to give them the start I had - that we all had - if I'm to have any chance of grandchildren. That's what's mostly constraining my spending.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,449
    Malmesbury said:

    Eabhal said:

    Was the Trans bullet casings thing a far-right hoax in the end? Struggling to work out what the truth is but note quite a few papers still have that claim up, with others suggesting it was a false report from some dodgy law enforcement official.

    Difficult to know what to trust in Trump's America.

    You mean the nonesense about the headstamps that are common on brass?

    Your thing that in the land of gun nuts…
    TRN is a Turkish manufacturer's headstamp.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,095
    Mexicanpete said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Reeves paying the price of her anti business budget

    And why does she have to continually stand on a building site with a hard hat on ?

    https://news.sky.com/story/zero-growth-in-july-as-economy-continued-to-slow-official-figures-show-13429036

    You liked it when Boris did that.
    No
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,812
    Carnyx said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Eabhal said:

    Was the Trans bullet casings thing a far-right hoax in the end? Struggling to work out what the truth is but note quite a few papers still have that claim up, with others suggesting it was a false report from some dodgy law enforcement official.

    Difficult to know what to trust in Trump's America.

    You mean the nonesense about the headstamps that are common on brass?

    Your thing that in the land of gun nuts…
    TRN is a Turkish manufacturer's headstamp.
    Is that was it was? Ffs.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,854
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    eek said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    I need a peerage for my sacrifice, if you want to see how damaging inflation is then is it.

    Last year the top end iPhone 16 Pro Max cost £1,599 and the top end iPhone 17 Pro Max is costing be £1,999.

    Okay, it is has gone from a 1TB storage to a 2TB storage but still.
    Amnd how much of that storage do you actually need - I've gone from 1tb to 512gb because I don't need the space and I suspect I could get away with 256gb if I wasn't planning to keep it 2-3 years so need some leeway in case things demand that space.
    I am currently using around 700 GB mostly, music downloaded (my own collection), I have a lot of 4K recordings and that takes up a lot of memory, yes I upload them to the cloud but still.
    So they charge you a fortune for storage. And then charge you to backup the contents on their cloud.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,449
    edited September 12
    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Eabhal said:

    Was the Trans bullet casings thing a far-right hoax in the end? Struggling to work out what the truth is but note quite a few papers still have that claim up, with others suggesting it was a false report from some dodgy law enforcement official.

    Difficult to know what to trust in Trump's America.

    You mean the nonesense about the headstamps that are common on brass?

    Your thing that in the land of gun nuts…
    TRN is a Turkish manufacturer's headstamp.
    Is that was it was? Ffs.
    I believe so - but am not certain that the photos shown by the chap in TUD's post at 0753 were the offending rounds.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,880
    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    I guess the other thing that could lead to a split is if the economy is doing well in the cities and richer areas of the countries, but doing even worse than usual elsewhere.

    London, Edinburgh, the Highlands have been buzzing this summer. No sense at all of an economic crisis.

    Leicester is busy too, and the Isle of Wight when I was there a couple of weeks back.

    Of my 2 boys and their partners 3 have new jobs after months of looking, all jobs with good prospects of career progress.

    I think the doom and gloom is overdone. At worst growth is a little anaemic rather than being in recession.
    The services sector (80% of the economy) continued to grow, up 0.1% month on month and 1.5% on a year ago. My bit of London is buzzing. The highlands and islands were busy over the summer. Even Spain, where we went over the bank holiday weekend, was full of Brits spending money.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,045
    Mexicanpete said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Reeves paying the price of her anti business budget

    And why does she have to continually stand on a building site with a hard hat on ?

    https://news.sky.com/story/zero-growth-in-july-as-economy-continued-to-slow-official-figures-show-13429036

    You liked it when Boris did that.
    Pete, you're obsessed with Boris. You see Boris fans everywhere. There are hardly any. Most of us on the right were at best deeply ambivalent about him at the time - you juat didn't see it because you perceived any failure to be constantly furious about every aspect of him as wild fandom.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,754
    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Eabhal said:

    Was the Trans bullet casings thing a far-right hoax in the end? Struggling to work out what the truth is but note quite a few papers still have that claim up, with others suggesting it was a false report from some dodgy law enforcement official.

    Difficult to know what to trust in Trump's America.

    You mean the nonesense about the headstamps that are common on brass?

    Your thing that in the land of gun nuts…
    TRN is a Turkish manufacturer's headstamp.
    Is that was it was? Ffs.
    As I was saying- emote and then scramble round for evidence to fit.

    Look, we all do it, me included. It's part of the human condition. It's just that civilization and progress depend on not doing it. But chancers across the board exploit that effect as a hack to get the power they crave.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,110
    Leon said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    He could toast it with English Sparkling Wine.
    Didn’t you get the memo?

    ENGLISH FIZZ
    lol. Does this upset you?
    Au contraire, I'm endlessly entertained by your billowing, gaseous ego perpetually on the verge of bursting.

    I also enjoy these (inter)national tiny dick measuring contests. I fear my campaign to rename our national drink, something with an actual international brand, to Scotch Bevvy will get nowhere.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,027
    edited September 12
    For a bit of fun this morning i did a quick cross reference of last nights local by election results (4 Reform gains from Labx2, Tory and ind, 1 Tory gain from Residents Assoc.) to the relevant ward at the GE and applied the swing to the seats. So we would get these five results at a GE (reminder JUST FOR FUN)

    Reform gain Vale of Glamorgan and Hitchin from Labour
    Reform gain Aldridge-Brownhillls from Conservative
    Conservative (Esther McVey) hold Tatton
    Conservative (Nick Timothy) just holds on in West Suffolk
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,165
    The FBI have released further video of someone jumping off the roof and running towards woodland, 'where a gun was found'

    OK, but the guy leaving the roof doesn't appear to be carrying a long gun...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 34,192
    Scott_xP said:

    The FBI have released further video of someone jumping off the roof and running towards woodland, 'where a gun was found'

    OK, but the guy leaving the roof doesn't appear to be carrying a long gun...

    It has been a really good diversion from Epstein. False flag anyone?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,449
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Leon said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    He could toast it with English Sparkling Wine.
    Didn’t you get the memo?

    ENGLISH FIZZ
    lol. Does this upset you?
    Au contraire, I'm endlessly entertained by your billowing, gaseous ego perpetually on the verge of bursting.

    I also enjoy these (inter)national tiny dick measuring contests. I fear my campaign to rename our national drink, something with an actual international brand, to Scotch Bevvy will get nowhere.
    Who gives a shit when we have Lagavulin and Highland Park, anyway?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 16,080
    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    I need a peerage for my sacrifice, if you want to see how damaging inflation is then is it.

    Last year the top end iPhone 16 Pro Max cost £1,599 and the top end iPhone 17 Pro Max is costing be £1,999.

    Okay, it is has gone from a 1TB storage to a 2TB storage but still.
    Microsoft emailed me today to say my MS365 subscription is going up from 59.99 to 84.99.

    This is discretionary inflation. Which means growing margins, which means more money for corporates to invest in productivity growth.
    Isn't that because they are trying it on with the extra charge for AI? They did wirth me but I got it knocked back down to the 'classic' at a considerable saving.
    This seems to be the basic pricing. I just double checked.
    It is, only "basic" has been redefined, AIUI. I had to make a positive decision to revert to 'classic', so it's no longer the default.

    https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2025/02/microsoft-365-price-hike/
    https://www.which.co.uk/news/article/how-to-avoid-microsoft-365-price-rises-aGNYY5O92as9

    Always possible there's geographical differences, of course.
    Cheeky buggers. Even when I went in to the site there was no obvious option - only the option to upgrade.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,095
    Cookie said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Reeves paying the price of her anti business budget

    And why does she have to continually stand on a building site with a hard hat on ?

    https://news.sky.com/story/zero-growth-in-july-as-economy-continued-to-slow-official-figures-show-13429036

    You liked it when Boris did that.
    Pete, you're obsessed with Boris. You see Boris fans everywhere. There are hardly any. Most of us on the right were at best deeply ambivalent about him at the time - you juat didn't see it because you perceived any failure to be constantly furious about every aspect of him as wild fandom.
    Fair comment

    I didn't vote as a member for Johnson, and once he defended Pincher he lost me completely and I turned to Sunak which sadly the party decided Truss was to be the one
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,871
    edited September 12
    Eabhal said:

    Was the Trans bullet casings thing a far-right hoax in the end? Struggling to work out what the truth is but note quite a few papers still have that claim up, with others suggesting it was a false report from some dodgy law enforcement official.

    Difficult to know what to trust in Trump's America.

    Those far-right hoaxers at the Wall St Journal are sticking to their story.

    https://x.com/wsj/status/1966145565743251922

    The first source of the suggestion was Steven Crowder, who was sent a screenshot purporting to be from the ATF internal computer systems.

    https://x.com/scrowder/status/1966118431511433267

    Crowder (a conservative activist friend of Kirk) and the WSJ appear to be what everyone else is using as their sources for the report.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,449
    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    I need a peerage for my sacrifice, if you want to see how damaging inflation is then is it.

    Last year the top end iPhone 16 Pro Max cost £1,599 and the top end iPhone 17 Pro Max is costing be £1,999.

    Okay, it is has gone from a 1TB storage to a 2TB storage but still.
    Microsoft emailed me today to say my MS365 subscription is going up from 59.99 to 84.99.

    This is discretionary inflation. Which means growing margins, which means more money for corporates to invest in productivity growth.
    Isn't that because they are trying it on with the extra charge for AI? They did wirth me but I got it knocked back down to the 'classic' at a considerable saving.
    This seems to be the basic pricing. I just double checked.
    It is, only "basic" has been redefined, AIUI. I had to make a positive decision to revert to 'classic', so it's no longer the default.

    https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2025/02/microsoft-365-price-hike/
    https://www.which.co.uk/news/article/how-to-avoid-microsoft-365-price-rises-aGNYY5O92as9

    Always possible there's geographical differences, of course.
    Cheeky buggers. Even when I went in to the site there was no obvious option - only the option to upgrade.
    Wel, that's my Which subscription pretty much paid for itself with that alone. If an IT literate chap like you can be caught like that ...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,469
    edited September 12
    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    I guess the other thing that could lead to a split is if the economy is doing well in the cities and richer areas of the countries, but doing even worse than usual elsewhere.

    London, Edinburgh, the Highlands have been buzzing this summer. No sense at all of an economic crisis.

    Leicester is busy too, and the Isle of Wight when I was there a couple of weeks back.

    Of my 2 boys and their partners 3 have new jobs after months of looking, all jobs with good prospects of career progress.

    I think the doom and gloom is overdone. At worst growth is a little anaemic rather than being in recession.
    The "its busy out and about " doesn't tally with the number of jobs in shops / pubs / restaurants are well down. Job vacancies across the board are down and recent survey of 100s of recruitment firms said jobs opportunities were looking bad going forward.

    The growth we have had this year so significantly down to the pyramid scheme of government borrowing and then spending rather than private sector growth.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,095
    wooliedyed said:

    For a bit of fun this morning i did a quick cross reference of last nights local by election results (4 Reform gains from Labx2, Tory and ind, 1 Tory gain from Residents Assoc.) to the relevant ward at the GE and applied the swing to the seats. So we would get these five results at a GE (reminder JUST FOR FUN)

    Reform gain Vale of Glamorgan and Hitchin from Labour
    Reform gain Aldridge-Brownhillls from Conservative
    Conservative (Esther McVey) hold Tatton
    Conservative (Nick Timothy) just holds on in West Suffolk

    I really do not think labour can count on winning anywhere in Wales at present
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,449
    edited September 12
    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    Was the Trans bullet casings thing a far-right hoax in the end? Struggling to work out what the truth is but note quite a few papers still have that claim up, with others suggesting it was a false report from some dodgy law enforcement official.

    Difficult to know what to trust in Trump's America.

    Those far-right hoaxers at the Wall St Journal are sticking to their story.

    https://x.com/wsj/status/1966145565743251922

    The first source of the suggestion was Steven Crowder, who was sent a screenshot purporting to be from the ATF internal computer systems.

    https://x.com/scrowder/status/1966118431511433267

    Crowder (a conservative activist) and the WSJ appear to be what everyone else is using as their sources for the report.
    ...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,244
    TimS said:

    AnneJGP said:

    TimS said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    It’s becoming ever clearer that Britain’s primary economic problem is penny-pinching households and businesses. Labour have managed to suppress confidence even further since their election. Reeves’ number one priority at the budget should be to boost confidence.
    I don't say you're wrong, but so many households known to me can't stretch their income to cover the full week. Spending every penny isn't penny pinching, it's feeling the pinch badly.
    That’s always been true of many (even most) households. But it is emphatically not true of many many households. And it is absolutely emphatically true of many businesses that have got into the habit of sweating assets rather than investing in growth.

    Our national savings rate is at historically high levels, and private (both household and corporate) debt is the lowest it’s been since the noughties. No wonder government debt is so high.
    private (both household and corporate) debt is the lowest it’s been since the noughties

    You say that as if you think its a bad thing.

    It was excessive private debt that nearly destroyed the economy in 2007-2010.

    Many of those individuals and businesses you lament for not having enough debt only survived 2007-2010 by not having too much debt.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,127
    Scott_xP said:

    The FBI have released further video of someone jumping off the roof and running towards woodland, 'where a gun was found'

    OK, but the guy leaving the roof doesn't appear to be carrying a long gun...

    It looks like he only has a small backpack in the video.

    It's all getting a bit "grassy knoll".
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,884
    Good morning, everyone.

    I much prefer this weather to the heat of a month or so ago, but surprised it's so cool.

    Has NATO decided whether to actually do something about the Russian drone incursion, beyond tutting?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,027
    edited September 12
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    wooliedyed said:

    For a bit of fun this morning i did a quick cross reference of last nights local by election results (4 Reform gains from Labx2, Tory and ind, 1 Tory gain from Residents Assoc.) to the relevant ward at the GE and applied the swing to the seats. So we would get these five results at a GE (reminder JUST FOR FUN)

    Reform gain Vale of Glamorgan and Hitchin from Labour
    Reform gain Aldridge-Brownhillls from Conservative
    Conservative (Esther McVey) hold Tatton
    Conservative (Nick Timothy) just holds on in West Suffolk

    I really do not think labour can count on winning anywhere in Wales at present
    Cardiff i think will be ok for them but the rest look iffy.
    The Vale ward is traditional Lab/Con swing ward and they fell to 3rd and 4th - Labour to fourth from first last time and easily winning the ward last July in the GE
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,110
    BlancheLivermore said:

    TimS said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    He could toast it with English Sparkling Wine.
    Didn’t you get the memo?

    ENGLISH FIZZ
    Hard to think of the term SCOTTISH FIZZ taking off in any context...
    Made in Scotland, from girders.
    Iron Cru
    Required bit of pedantry, the original drink was Iron Brew but changed to Irn-Bru just after WWII I think.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,244
    another_richard said:

    TimS said:

    AnneJGP said:

    TimS said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    It’s becoming ever clearer that Britain’s primary economic problem is penny-pinching households and businesses. Labour have managed to suppress confidence even further since their election. Reeves’ number one priority at the budget should be to boost confidence.
    I don't say you're wrong, but so many households known to me can't stretch their income to cover the full week. Spending every penny isn't penny pinching, it's feeling the pinch badly.
    That’s always been true of many (even most) households. But it is emphatically not true of many many households. And it is absolutely emphatically true of many businesses that have got into the habit of sweating assets rather than investing in growth.

    Our national savings rate is at historically high levels, and private (both household and corporate) debt is the lowest it’s been since the noughties. No wonder government debt is so high.
    private (both household and corporate) debt is the lowest it’s been since the noughties

    You say that as if you think its a bad thing.

    It was excessive private debt that nearly destroyed the economy in 2007-2010.

    Many of those individuals and businesses you lament for not having enough debt only survived 2007-2010 by not having too much debt.
    And given that the UK has a continual trade deficit its difficult to believe that this country is under consuming.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/ikbj/mret
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 34,192
    Cookie said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Reeves paying the price of her anti business budget

    And why does she have to continually stand on a building site with a hard hat on ?

    https://news.sky.com/story/zero-growth-in-july-as-economy-continued-to-slow-official-figures-show-13429036

    You liked it when Boris did that.
    Pete, you're obsessed with Boris. You see Boris fans everywhere. There are hardly any. Most of us on the right were at best deeply ambivalent about him at the time - you juat didn't see it because you perceived any failure to be constantly furious about every aspect of him as wild fandom.
    What is sauce for the goose etc.

    I am just so dismayed that this week's Johnson revelations regarding Madura et al don't make any noise in the media outside the Guardian. Now you might counter that with " well he's no longer in Government". And that would be true.

    Even when he was in Government he never set the media pulse racing with, what I consider to be the most egregious genuine national security scandal since World War II. A scandal which had it involved ANYONE else would have been bigger than Profumo. I am talking about a UK Foreign Secretary shaking off his minders to attend a "Gentleman's" party in Lombardy hosted by the KGB.

    And yet on here and in the media he is revered for "having got all the big calls right".
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,756
    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Was the Trans bullet casings thing a far-right hoax in the end? Struggling to work out what the truth is but note quite a few papers still have that claim up, with others suggesting it was a false report from some dodgy law enforcement official.

    Difficult to know what to trust in Trump's America.

    The bullet stuff is likely bollocks

    But online sleuths have a plausible suspect. A loser lefty transgender “digital artist” from Utah, who has written songs about Kirk being dead at 31. The face closely matches the FBI images

    However it’s not a definite wicket. Umpire’s call
    https://www.facebook.com/groups/1325467235512617/posts/1811237626935573/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 65,111
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Leon said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    He could toast it with English Sparkling Wine.
    Didn’t you get the memo?

    ENGLISH FIZZ
    lol. Does this upset you?
    Au contraire, I'm endlessly entertained by your billowing, gaseous ego perpetually on the verge of bursting.

    I also enjoy these (inter)national tiny dick measuring contests. I fear my campaign to rename our national drink, something with an actual international brand, to Scotch Bevvy will get nowhere.
    Jesus this is cringe
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,880
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The FBI have released further video of someone jumping off the roof and running towards woodland, 'where a gun was found'

    OK, but the guy leaving the roof doesn't appear to be carrying a long gun...

    It looks like he only has a small backpack in the video.

    It's all getting a bit "grassy knoll".
    Has the FBI investigated the enraged swiftie angle? Kirk made some unpleasant comments on the news of the Swift-Kelce engagement, and Ms Swift's fans are notoriously zealous.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,244
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The FBI have released further video of someone jumping off the roof and running towards woodland, 'where a gun was found'

    OK, but the guy leaving the roof doesn't appear to be carrying a long gun...

    It looks like he only has a small backpack in the video.

    It's all getting a bit "grassy knoll".
    It was a very accurate shot.

    A contrast to the Trump assassination attempt.

    Which might be making some people wonder.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,624
    Theuniondivvie said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    TimS said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    So you are saying there is a large upside potential?

    Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
    GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
    Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
    That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
    He could toast it with English Sparkling Wine.
    Didn’t you get the memo?

    ENGLISH FIZZ
    Hard to think of the term SCOTTISH FIZZ taking off in any context...
    Made in Scotland, from girders.
    Iron Cru
    Required bit of pedantry, the original drink was Iron Brew but changed to Irn-Bru just after WWII I think.
    I'm sure I typed Irn Cru but only noticed the autocorrect to Crud, not the one to Iron..
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,165
    @DPJHodges

    Understand there is mounting panic in Downing Street that Peter Mandelson has decided to try to bring Keir Starmer down with him.

    @Steven_Swinford

    Pressure mounts on Sir Keir Starmer over political judgement in appointing Lord Mandelson.

    * Lord Mandelson told his vetting officer that he had continued his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein for many years and that he deeply regretted doing so. He feels ill treated by Starmer

    * Cabinet ministers are questioning Starmer’s judgment. ‘It was obvious from the start that he [Mandelson] was the wrong choice. It was just a matter of time. It’s so damaging’zAnother said it should have been “obvious” that Mandelson’s resignation was inevitable

    * Mandelson refused to resign so Starmer sacked him. Concern in foreign office Mandelson would not go quietly
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