So you are saying there is a large upside potential?
Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
He could toast it with English Sparkling Wine.
Didn’t you get the memo?
ENGLISH FIZZ
lol. Does this upset you?
Au contraire, I'm endlessly entertained by your billowing, gaseous ego perpetually on the verge of bursting.
I also enjoy these (inter)national tiny dick measuring contests. I fear my campaign to rename our national drink, something with an actual international brand, to Scotch Bevvy will get nowhere.
Who gives a shit when we have Lagavulin and Highland Park, anyway?
So you guys actually ARE annoyed that English fizz is now delicious and celebrated?!
wtf
Scottish Nationalism must be the saddest nationalism on the planet. It is entirely centred on an all consuming inferiority complex via a vis England and Englishness, variously symptomised by envy, anger, loathing, fear and arse-puckeringly cringeworthy comments on geeky politics forums
The FBI have released further video of someone jumping off the roof and running towards woodland, 'where a gun was found'
OK, but the guy leaving the roof doesn't appear to be carrying a long gun...
It looks like he only has a small backpack in the video.
It's all getting a bit "grassy knoll".
Has the FBI investigated the enraged swiftie angle? Kirk made some unpleasant comments on the news of the Swift-Kelce engagement, and Ms Swift's fans are notoriously zealous.
I am sure this guy will follow every possible lead
Was the Trans bullet casings thing a far-right hoax in the end? Struggling to work out what the truth is but note quite a few papers still have that claim up, with others suggesting it was a false report from some dodgy law enforcement official.
Difficult to know what to trust in Trump's America.
Pressure mounts on Sir Keir Starmer over political judgement in appointing Lord Mandelson.
* Lord Mandelson told his vetting officer that he had continued his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein for many years and that he deeply regretted doing so. He feels ill treated by Starmer
* Cabinet ministers are questioning Starmer’s judgment. ‘It was obvious from the start that he [Mandelson] was the wrong choice. It was just a matter of time. It’s so damaging’zAnother said it should have been “obvious” that Mandelson’s resignation was inevitable
* Mandelson refused to resign so Starmer sacked him. Concern in foreign office Mandelson would not go quietly
Pressure mounts on Sir Keir Starmer over political judgement in appointing Lord Mandelson.
* Lord Mandelson told his vetting officer that he had continued his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein for many years and that he deeply regretted doing so. He feels ill treated by Starmer
* Cabinet ministers are questioning Starmer’s judgment. ‘It was obvious from the start that he [Mandelson] was the wrong choice. It was just a matter of time. It’s so damaging’zAnother said it should have been “obvious” that Mandelson’s resignation was inevitable
* Mandelson refused to resign so Starmer sacked him. Concern in foreign office Mandelson would not go quietly
I'm sure all these people will be able to show where they were publicly opposed to the Mandelson appointment.
Pressure mounts on Sir Keir Starmer over political judgement in appointing Lord Mandelson.
* Lord Mandelson told his vetting officer that he had continued his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein for many years and that he deeply regretted doing so. He feels ill treated by Starmer
* Cabinet ministers are questioning Starmer’s judgment. ‘It was obvious from the start that he [Mandelson] was the wrong choice. It was just a matter of time. It’s so damaging’zAnother said it should have been “obvious” that Mandelson’s resignation was inevitable
* Mandelson refused to resign so Starmer sacked him. Concern in foreign office Mandelson would not go quietly
Earlier in the year… I bet Sir Keir wishes he could erase this video now
Pete, you're obsessed with Boris. You see Boris fans everywhere. There are hardly any. Most of us on the right were at best deeply ambivalent about him at the time - you juat didn't see it because you perceived any failure to be constantly furious about every aspect of him as wild fandom.
What is sauce for the goose etc.
I am just so dismayed that this week's Johnson revelations regarding Madura et al don't make any noise in the media outside the Guardian. Now you might counter that with " well he's no longer in Government". And that would be true.
Even when he was in Government he never set the media pulse racing with, what I consider to be the most egregious genuine national security scandal since World War II. A scandal which had it involved ANYONE else would have been bigger than Profumo. I am talking about a UK Foreign Secretary shaking off his minders to attend a "Gentleman's" party in Lombardy hosted by the KGB.
And yet on here and in the media he is revered for "having got all the big calls right".
In case you haven't noticed the culminative issues with Johnson and Truss resulted in the conservatives being reduced to 121 seats at the general election and they are struggling in the polls to this day
As @Cookie says your obsession with Johnson and the Guardian's stories are mostly baked into Johnson reputation, whilst we have a new Government upto its neck in sleaze and the sacking of the Deputy PM and the US Ambassador in a week together with Trump and US news being the media's obsession
For a bit of fun this morning i did a quick cross reference of last nights local by election results (4 Reform gains from Labx2, Tory and ind, 1 Tory gain from Residents Assoc.) to the relevant ward at the GE and applied the swing to the seats. So we would get these five results at a GE (reminder JUST FOR FUN)
Reform gain Vale of Glamorgan and Hitchin from Labour Reform gain Aldridge-Brownhillls from Conservative Conservative (Esther McVey) hold Tatton Conservative (Nick Timothy) just holds on in West Suffolk
I really do not think labour can count on winning anywhere in Wales at present
Cardiff i think will be ok for them but the rest look iffy. The Vale ward is traditional Lab/Con swing ward and they fell to 3rd and 4th - Labour to fourth from first last time and easily winning the ward last July in the GE
Traditional Labour areas along the M4 and A55 are going big for Reform. The ward that went Reform in Romilly Park yesterday isn't exactly a haven for asylum seekers but the message is getting through that Labour love asylum seekers and if Butlins were still on Barry Island they would be housing them there.
Both the Conservatives and Reform campaigning against the million net immigrants per year that Labour have been bringing in since 2019 may be counterfactual, but it has touched a nerve.
Pressure mounts on Sir Keir Starmer over political judgement in appointing Lord Mandelson.
* Lord Mandelson told his vetting officer that he had continued his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein for many years and that he deeply regretted doing so. He feels ill treated by Starmer
* Cabinet ministers are questioning Starmer’s judgment. ‘It was obvious from the start that he [Mandelson] was the wrong choice. It was just a matter of time. It’s so damaging’zAnother said it should have been “obvious” that Mandelson’s resignation was inevitable
* Mandelson refused to resign so Starmer sacked him. Concern in foreign office Mandelson would not go quietly
That's interesting. I thought it would have been better for Mandelson to resign, but assumed they'd settled on the sacking option to make Sir Keir look hard. But if Mandelson had no intention of resigning and therefore had to be sacked then that spells danger.
For a bit of fun this morning i did a quick cross reference of last nights local by election results (4 Reform gains from Labx2, Tory and ind, 1 Tory gain from Residents Assoc.) to the relevant ward at the GE and applied the swing to the seats. So we would get these five results at a GE (reminder JUST FOR FUN)
Reform gain Vale of Glamorgan and Hitchin from Labour Reform gain Aldridge-Brownhillls from Conservative Conservative (Esther McVey) hold Tatton Conservative (Nick Timothy) just holds on in West Suffolk
I really do not think labour can count on winning anywhere in Wales at present
Cardiff i think will be ok for them but the rest look iffy. The Vale ward is traditional Lab/Con swing ward and they fell to 3rd and 4th - Labour to fourth from first last time and easily winning the ward last July in the GE
Traditional Labour areas along the M4 and A55 are going big for Reform. The ward that went Reform in Romilly Park yesterday isn't exactly a haven for asylum seekers but the message is getting through that Labour love asylum seekers and if Butlins were still on Barry Island they would be housing them there.
Both the Conservatives and Reform campaigning against the million net immigrants per year that Labour have been bringing in since 2019 may be counterfactual, but it has touched a nerve.
So you are saying there is a large upside potential?
Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
He could toast it with English Sparkling Wine.
Didn’t you get the memo?
ENGLISH FIZZ
lol. Does this upset you?
Au contraire, I'm endlessly entertained by your billowing, gaseous ego perpetually on the verge of bursting.
I also enjoy these (inter)national tiny dick measuring contests. I fear my campaign to rename our national drink, something with an actual international brand, to Scotch Bevvy will get nowhere.
Who gives a shit when we have Lagavulin and Highland Park, anyway?
So you guys actually ARE annoyed that English fizz is now delicious and celebrated?!
wtf
Scottish Nationalism must be the saddest nationalism on the planet. It is entirely centred on an all consuming inferiority complex via a vis England and Englishness, variously symptomised by envy, anger, loathing, fear and arse-puckeringly cringeworthy comments on geeky politics forums
The FBI have released further video of someone jumping off the roof and running towards woodland, 'where a gun was found'
OK, but the guy leaving the roof doesn't appear to be carrying a long gun...
It looks like he only has a small backpack in the video.
It's all getting a bit "grassy knoll".
It was a very accurate shot.
A contrast to the Trump assassination attempt.
Which might be making some people wonder.
It's unlikely the shooter was aiming for the neck. So, assuming the bullet clipped Trunp's ear and was a head shot, it was more accurate, not less. Just less effective.
Plenty of people out there saying a Mauser 30 calibre is pretty accurate at that range in the hands of plenty of gun owners
Mandy will have cleared his interview with No 10 who clearly will have told him 'yes, be contrite, we are backing you in your role' He will, of course, lash out
Pressure mounts on Sir Keir Starmer over political judgement in appointing Lord Mandelson.
* Lord Mandelson told his vetting officer that he had continued his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein for many years and that he deeply regretted doing so. He feels ill treated by Starmer
* Cabinet ministers are questioning Starmer’s judgment. ‘It was obvious from the start that he [Mandelson] was the wrong choice. It was just a matter of time. It’s so damaging’zAnother said it should have been “obvious” that Mandelson’s resignation was inevitable
* Mandelson refused to resign so Starmer sacked him. Concern in foreign office Mandelson would not go quietly
Earlier in the year… I bet Sir Keir wishes he could erase this video now
Mandelson is a wily old beast and could run rings round both (all five?) parties' front benches in his sleep. He is an operator and any amateur, and especially a bad amateur such as SKS, should be super careful if they think they can try to out spin the spinmeister.
Pressure mounts on Sir Keir Starmer over political judgement in appointing Lord Mandelson.
* Lord Mandelson told his vetting officer that he had continued his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein for many years and that he deeply regretted doing so. He feels ill treated by Starmer
* Cabinet ministers are questioning Starmer’s judgment. ‘It was obvious from the start that he [Mandelson] was the wrong choice. It was just a matter of time. It’s so damaging’zAnother said it should have been “obvious” that Mandelson’s resignation was inevitable
* Mandelson refused to resign so Starmer sacked him. Concern in foreign office Mandelson would not go quietly
Earlier in the year… I bet Sir Keir wishes he could erase this video now
Mandelson is a wily old beast and could run rings round both (all five?) parties' front benches in his sleep. He is an operator and any amateur, and especially a bad amateur such as SKS, should be super careful if they think they can try to out spin the spinmeister.
Although I do wonder how effective Mandy and Bad Al are these days in terms of keeping control of the narrative in the social media era compared to when they were peak and they had all the media big whigs by the bollocks. The whole Epstein story totally got away from him within 2 days.
But while Mandy can probably still play Premier League level spin / scheming, SKS is semi-pro non-league player who doesn't seem to good with the dark arts of bollock grabbing off the ball.
If Russia has any designs to conquer the Baltic States I would suggest that a ceasefire in Ukraine fairly soon to give them 12 months to reconstitute as many brigades as possible, followed by an invasion around the time of the US midterms, would give them their best chance since those states joined NATO.
I'm sure Trump would say he wasn't happy about it, but he's not going to do anything about it.
I expect this is weekend's newspapers will be very uncomfortable for Starmer
Even if Mandelson hadn't happened, I suspect papers like the Mail and the Express would have printed something which would be "uncomfortable" for Starmer.
Morning all! Bright and sunny here, although I've got a feeling that "it's too bright too early"!
There's a converse view of the Rayner/Mandelson scenes; all got over with at once, or at least close together.I can't see the Tory conference being all sweetness and light, but with a bit of luck and a rational Deputy leader campaign Labour could well have it's act back together by the end of the month. The next major event is the Trump visit, assuming he doesn't take umbrage at Mandelson's departure, and even cancellation by him wouldn't be viewed as a disaster by many here.
Pressure mounts on Sir Keir Starmer over political judgement in appointing Lord Mandelson.
* Lord Mandelson told his vetting officer that he had continued his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein for many years and that he deeply regretted doing so. He feels ill treated by Starmer
* Cabinet ministers are questioning Starmer’s judgment. ‘It was obvious from the start that he [Mandelson] was the wrong choice. It was just a matter of time. It’s so damaging’zAnother said it should have been “obvious” that Mandelson’s resignation was inevitable
* Mandelson refused to resign so Starmer sacked him. Concern in foreign office Mandelson would not go quietly
Earlier in the year… I bet Sir Keir wishes he could erase this video now
Mandelson is a wily old beast and could run rings round both (all five?) parties' front benches in his sleep. He is an operator and any amateur, and especially a bad amateur such as SKS, should be super careful if they think they can try to out spin the spinmeister.
And yet old Mandy was fooled by a lantern jawed paedo..
Looking like my expectation that Starmer would shuffle off the scene and retire in year 4 of his stint as PM is optimistic.
If there's not another scandal to devour him first, it could come down to how long Labour MPs put up with being behind (or well behind) Reform in the polls. Plenty of AM/MSP candidates will be looking at all this and getting very angry
Surely UK Labour vote in a female leader next time
The FBI have released further video of someone jumping off the roof and running towards woodland, 'where a gun was found'
OK, but the guy leaving the roof doesn't appear to be carrying a long gun...
It looks like he only has a small backpack in the video.
It's all getting a bit "grassy knoll".
Some innocent engaging in a little lunchtime parkour? Needs some practice if so, to be fair.
Not saying this chap didn't do it (incidentally he doesn't look very Trans) but hard to see how he dropped the rifle in the woods on his way. Abandoning it on the roof maybe, but he doesn't appear to have taken it with him.
Pressure mounts on Sir Keir Starmer over political judgement in appointing Lord Mandelson.
* Lord Mandelson told his vetting officer that he had continued his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein for many years and that he deeply regretted doing so. He feels ill treated by Starmer
* Cabinet ministers are questioning Starmer’s judgment. ‘It was obvious from the start that he [Mandelson] was the wrong choice. It was just a matter of time. It’s so damaging’zAnother said it should have been “obvious” that Mandelson’s resignation was inevitable
* Mandelson refused to resign so Starmer sacked him. Concern in foreign office Mandelson would not go quietly
That's interesting. I thought it would have been better for Mandelson to resign, but assumed they'd settled on the sacking option to make Sir Keir look hard. But if Mandelson had no intention of resigning and therefore had to be sacked then that spells danger.
* Lord Mandelson told his vetting officer that he had continued his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein for many years and that he deeply regretted doing so. He feels ill treated by Starmer
That statement says everything and nothing because it doesn’t mention what Peter was doing even after Epstein was sentenced and in jail
Pete, you're obsessed with Boris. You see Boris fans everywhere. There are hardly any. Most of us on the right were at best deeply ambivalent about him at the time - you juat didn't see it because you perceived any failure to be constantly furious about every aspect of him as wild fandom.
What is sauce for the goose etc.
I am just so dismayed that this week's Johnson revelations regarding Madura et al don't make any noise in the media outside the Guardian. Now you might counter that with " well he's no longer in Government". And that would be true.
Even when he was in Government he never set the media pulse racing with, what I consider to be the most egregious genuine national security scandal since World War II. A scandal which had it involved ANYONE else would have been bigger than Profumo. I am talking about a UK Foreign Secretary shaking off his minders to attend a "Gentleman's" party in Lombardy hosted by the KGB.
And yet on here and in the media he is revered for "having got all the big calls right".
I don't think you're reading this right. Almost no-one on here reveres Boris. But there are some - and I think you are one - for whom their hatred of him is so all-consuming that they see any failure to criticise him as reverence - even for things completely unpolitical. I find him an entertaining writer for example. Clearly many do - he made a career out of it. But even that rankles for you, doesn't it - your quick brain is thinking "that Cookie, he finds Boris an entertaining writer, he reveres him and secretly wants him back as PM". But I don't. I agree he was a distinctly sub-optimal PM. I did vote for him, and I don't regret it, because my view was and remains that PM Corbyn would have been far worse. And I think during covid he got a lot wrong, but so did everybody - and I think he got less wrong than most of his counterparts on the continent or in Scotland or Wales (and, as I've said, Starmer at LOTO absolutely did get everything wrong - normally demonstrably so within weeks). Even terrible people are right sometimes. It's possible to concede good qualities about politicians you think are very bad for the country. Look, I'll start: Keir Starmer: he's a good looking fella with good hair. Gordon Brown: by all appearances, a decent father and husband. Jeremy Corbyn: I actually find his fondness for allotments and grids admirable. Doesn't mean I'm a fan of any of them. But nor am I under the illusion that these people are the worst people in history or that anyone who sees any positive aspects of them at all must be in love with them.
Looking like my expectation that Starmer would shuffle off the scene and retire in year 4 of his stint as PM is optimistic.
If there's not another scandal to devour him first, it could come down to how long Labour MPs put up with being behind (or well behind) Reform in the polls. Plenty of AM/MSP candidates will be looking at all this and getting very angry
Surely UK Labour vote in a female leader next time
The dumpster fire that will be the utterly fractious leadership contest will be a laugh and a half
Pete, you're obsessed with Boris. You see Boris fans everywhere. There are hardly any. Most of us on the right were at best deeply ambivalent about him at the time - you juat didn't see it because you perceived any failure to be constantly furious about every aspect of him as wild fandom.
What is sauce for the goose etc.
I am just so dismayed that this week's Johnson revelations regarding Madura et al don't make any noise in the media outside the Guardian. Now you might counter that with " well he's no longer in Government". And that would be true.
Even when he was in Government he never set the media pulse racing with, what I consider to be the most egregious genuine national security scandal since World War II. A scandal which had it involved ANYONE else would have been bigger than Profumo. I am talking about a UK Foreign Secretary shaking off his minders to attend a "Gentleman's" party in Lombardy hosted by the KGB.
And yet on here and in the media he is revered for "having got all the big calls right".
No, the only thing for which he is "revered" is keeping the Conservatives in office (if not necessarily in power) by smashing Corbyn and Labour in the 2019 GE.
As we've seen in the last year and a bit, the Conservatives aren't much good at Opposition - being "in Government" is their natural state and Johnson kept them there. He gave them a strong majority and it looked like the Tories would be in power for another decade to add to their first decade.
Was the Trans bullet casings thing a far-right hoax in the end? Struggling to work out what the truth is but note quite a few papers still have that claim up, with others suggesting it was a false report from some dodgy law enforcement official.
Difficult to know what to trust in Trump's America.
The bullet stuff is likely bollocks
But online sleuths have a plausible suspect. A loser lefty transgender “digital artist” from Utah, who has written songs about Kirk being dead at 31. The face closely matches the FBI images
They're just picking random people up now who fit their 'beliefs' about what happened. They *may* be right; but it is unlikely, and that poor person's going to get Hell over it.
Someone innocent is going to get hurt in this mess.
There's a new thing going on, as was seen in a baseball game recently. Someone does something minor and is caught in camera: say, taking a baseball off a young girl at a game. Not nice, but almost certainly not the worst behaviour at the game. There's then a massive online hunt to get the name of the person, their address, campaigns against their employers, etc, etc. I'm unconvinced the 'crime' is worthy of the resultant punishments.
Pressure mounts on Sir Keir Starmer over political judgement in appointing Lord Mandelson.
* Lord Mandelson told his vetting officer that he had continued his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein for many years and that he deeply regretted doing so. He feels ill treated by Starmer
* Cabinet ministers are questioning Starmer’s judgment. ‘It was obvious from the start that he [Mandelson] was the wrong choice. It was just a matter of time. It’s so damaging’zAnother said it should have been “obvious” that Mandelson’s resignation was inevitable
* Mandelson refused to resign so Starmer sacked him. Concern in foreign office Mandelson would not go quietly
Earlier in the year… I bet Sir Keir wishes he could erase this video now
Mandelson is a wily old beast and could run rings round both (all five?) parties' front benches in his sleep. He is an operator and any amateur, and especially a bad amateur such as SKS, should be super careful if they think they can try to out spin the spinmeister.
Although I do wonder how effective Mandy and Bad Al are these days in terms of keeping control of the narrative in the social media era compared to when they were peak and they had all the media big whigs by the bollocks. The whole Epstein story totally got away from him within 2 days.
But while Mandy can probably still play Premier League level spin / scheming, SKS is semi-pro non-league player who doesn't seem to good with the dark arts of bollock grabbing off the ball.
Mandy is a fantastic politician, really has an instinct for what people want and how things "play". But evidently has a tragic flaw in that he for whatever reason likes baubles and status, whether that be flats in swanky areas of London or access to private caribbean islands. It is an all too human flaw and which of us has never succumbed to status anxiety or aspiration.
SKS and Mandy are chalk and apples when it comes to the business of politics and that same strand of status aspiration I have no doubt means that you do not want to fuck with him without an absolute rock solid case to bring and even then you should be checking it 20x. It sounds like SKS is trying his usual trick of reimagining events to suit him and Mandy (I very much hope) is having none of it.
Looking like my expectation that Starmer would shuffle off the scene and retire in year 4 of his stint as PM is optimistic.
If there's not another scandal to devour him first, it could come down to how long Labour MPs put up with being behind (or well behind) Reform in the polls. Plenty of AM/MSP candidates will be looking at all this and getting very angry
Surely UK Labour vote in a female leader next time
Yep. Hence my Phillipson bet at 33/1 for next PM.
Starmer is stubborn and has the hide of a rhinoceros, and even less insight. So I wouldn't expect him to step down any time soon. 2028, I think.
Incidentally, I dont think Mandelson will publically turn on Starmer. He is certainly enraged, but too much a Labour loyalist.
I've got zero sympathy for Starmer over Mandelson. Mandelson is a canny political operator and an excellent orator, but the baggage he carries around with him is massive. I believe I said appointing Mandelson was a mistake at the time.
That something would happen was predictable, and almost inevitable.
The FBI have released further video of someone jumping off the roof and running towards woodland, 'where a gun was found'
OK, but the guy leaving the roof doesn't appear to be carrying a long gun...
It looks like he only has a small backpack in the video.
It's all getting a bit "grassy knoll".
Some innocent engaging in a little lunchtime parkour? Needs some practice if so, to be fair.
Not saying this chap didn't do it (incidentally he doesn't look very Trans) but hard to see how he dropped the rifle in the woods on his way. Abandoning it on the roof maybe, but he doesn't appear to have taken it with him.
Yes but calling him a "loser, lefty trans" ticks all the right boxes for some. If it turns out NOT to be the case, as has happened with other recent acts of political violence and the culprit is much closer to home politically, it'll be interesting to see how the tune changes.
Pressure mounts on Sir Keir Starmer over political judgement in appointing Lord Mandelson.
* Lord Mandelson told his vetting officer that he had continued his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein for many years and that he deeply regretted doing so. He feels ill treated by Starmer
* Cabinet ministers are questioning Starmer’s judgment. ‘It was obvious from the start that he [Mandelson] was the wrong choice. It was just a matter of time. It’s so damaging’zAnother said it should have been “obvious” that Mandelson’s resignation was inevitable
* Mandelson refused to resign so Starmer sacked him. Concern in foreign office Mandelson would not go quietly
Earlier in the year… I bet Sir Keir wishes he could erase this video now
Mandelson is a wily old beast and could run rings round both (all five?) parties' front benches in his sleep. He is an operator and any amateur, and especially a bad amateur such as SKS, should be super careful if they think they can try to out spin the spinmeister.
And yet old Mandy was fooled by a lantern jawed paedo..
Like I said, he has this tragic flaw whereby he is attracted to status and wealth whereby his impeccable judgement goes out the window and, before the fall, Epstein had plenty of status and wealth. And baubles.
The FBI have released further video of someone jumping off the roof and running towards woodland, 'where a gun was found'
OK, but the guy leaving the roof doesn't appear to be carrying a long gun...
It looks like he only has a small backpack in the video.
It's all getting a bit "grassy knoll".
Some innocent engaging in a little lunchtime parkour? Needs some practice if so, to be fair.
Not saying this chap didn't do it (incidentally he doesn't look very Trans) but hard to see how he dropped the rifle in the woods on his way. Abandoning it on the roof maybe, but he doesn't appear to have taken it with him.
Surely he'd have more conspicuous there without a rifle than with one!
Was the Trans bullet casings thing a far-right hoax in the end? Struggling to work out what the truth is but note quite a few papers still have that claim up, with others suggesting it was a false report from some dodgy law enforcement official.
Difficult to know what to trust in Trump's America.
The bullet stuff is likely bollocks
But online sleuths have a plausible suspect. A loser lefty transgender “digital artist” from Utah, who has written songs about Kirk being dead at 31. The face closely matches the FBI images
They're just picking random people up now who fit their 'beliefs' about what happened. They *may* be right; but it is unlikely, and that poor person's going to get Hell over it.
Someone innocent is going to get hurt in this mess.
There's a new thing going on, as was seen in a baseball game recently. Someone does something minor and is caught in camera: say, taking a baseball off a young girl at a game. Not nice, but almost certainly not the worst behaviour at the game. There's then a massive online hunt to get the name of the person, their address, campaigns against their employers, etc, etc. I'm unconvinced the 'crime' is worthy of the resultant punishments.
It's an "unintended" version of surveillance culture. You don't need CCTV when every citizen is recording every citizen continuously.
There is a Netflix movie The Circle that revolves around this (albeit with a malign corporate overtone)
Pressure mounts on Sir Keir Starmer over political judgement in appointing Lord Mandelson.
* Lord Mandelson told his vetting officer that he had continued his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein for many years and that he deeply regretted doing so. He feels ill treated by Starmer
* Cabinet ministers are questioning Starmer’s judgment. ‘It was obvious from the start that he [Mandelson] was the wrong choice. It was just a matter of time. It’s so damaging’zAnother said it should have been “obvious” that Mandelson’s resignation was inevitable
* Mandelson refused to resign so Starmer sacked him. Concern in foreign office Mandelson would not go quietly
That's interesting. I thought it would have been better for Mandelson to resign, but assumed they'd settled on the sacking option to make Sir Keir look hard. But if Mandelson had no intention of resigning and therefore had to be sacked then that spells danger.
If Mandelson gave chapter and verse re his friendship with Epstein during his DV interview - and those things are tough and probing - then I can quite see why he feels annoyed. My guess is that No 10 knew of the relationship and how long it continued but went ahead anyway because they thought Mandelson's qualities outweighed the risks. They probably thought that the emails would not come to light.
It'll be interesting to see whether emails from other male friends of Epstein will now be published and whether any of the men who abused the girls will be named and shamed. Because - up to now (other than Andrew) - those men have managed to avoid any knowledge of let alone accountability for their crimes.
Was the Trans bullet casings thing a far-right hoax in the end? Struggling to work out what the truth is but note quite a few papers still have that claim up, with others suggesting it was a false report from some dodgy law enforcement official.
Difficult to know what to trust in Trump's America.
The bullet stuff is likely bollocks
But online sleuths have a plausible suspect. A loser lefty transgender “digital artist” from Utah, who has written songs about Kirk being dead at 31. The face closely matches the FBI images
They're just picking random people up now who fit their 'beliefs' about what happened. They *may* be right; but it is unlikely, and that poor person's going to get Hell over it.
Someone innocent is going to get hurt in this mess.
There's a new thing going on, as was seen in a baseball game recently. Someone does something minor and is caught in camera: say, taking a baseball off a young girl at a game. Not nice, but almost certainly not the worst behaviour at the game. There's then a massive online hunt to get the name of the person, their address, campaigns against their employers, etc, etc. I'm unconvinced the 'crime' is worthy of the resultant punishments.
I'm just reading "Kill all Normies" by Angela Nagle.
I much prefer this weather to the heat of a month or so ago, but surprised it's so cool.
Has NATO decided whether to actually do something about the Russian drone incursion, beyond tutting?
They're sending a lot air defence assets to Poland and begging the Ukrainians for drone interceptors.
It looks a lot like normalising Russia sending repeated waves of drones into Poland, rather than doing something to prevent or deter it, while weakening Ukraine's defences.
Pressure mounts on Sir Keir Starmer over political judgement in appointing Lord Mandelson.
* Lord Mandelson told his vetting officer that he had continued his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein for many years and that he deeply regretted doing so. He feels ill treated by Starmer
* Cabinet ministers are questioning Starmer’s judgment. ‘It was obvious from the start that he [Mandelson] was the wrong choice. It was just a matter of time. It’s so damaging’zAnother said it should have been “obvious” that Mandelson’s resignation was inevitable
* Mandelson refused to resign so Starmer sacked him. Concern in foreign office Mandelson would not go quietly
Earlier in the year… I bet Sir Keir wishes he could erase this video now
Mandelson is a wily old beast and could run rings round both (all five?) parties' front benches in his sleep. He is an operator and any amateur, and especially a bad amateur such as SKS, should be super careful if they think they can try to out spin the spinmeister.
And yet old Mandy was fooled by a lantern jawed paedo..
Like I said, he has this tragic flaw whereby he is attracted to status and wealth whereby his impeccable judgement goes out the window and, before the fall, Epstein had plenty of status and wealth. And baubles.
A big issue for Mandelson was that he was still grifting over Epstein *after* Epstein's fall.
It might just be Mandelson was firmly of the belief that Epstein was innocent, and he was standing by a good friend. Which would be laudable, but goes against what he has recently said. It's also likely that Mandelson knew, or suspected, that Epstein was a bad 'un - especially after the conviction - and was out to get whatever he could.
Looking like my expectation that Starmer would shuffle off the scene and retire in year 4 of his stint as PM is optimistic.
If there's not another scandal to devour him first, it could come down to how long Labour MPs put up with being behind (or well behind) Reform in the polls. Plenty of AM/MSP candidates will be looking at all this and getting very angry
Surely UK Labour vote in a female leader next time
Yep. Hence my Phillipson bet at 33/1 for next PM.
Starmer is stubborn and has the hide of a rhinoceros, and even less insight. So I wouldn't expect him to step down any time soon. 2028, I think.
Incidentally, I dont think Mandelson will publically turn on Starmer. He is certainly enraged, but too much a Labour loyalist.
Thankyou for the tip Foxy, still 33/1 at Lads. I think she is well placed to succeed, young(ish), female, and not under as much threat from Reform/Green as other MPs
I thought he may do about 3 and a half years as PM, I couldn't ever see him trying to stick out a second term at all when he'd be knocking on the door of 70
Credit where it's due, a decent evening for the Conservatives in the local by-elections.
Vote shares held up in some places and rose in Newmarket East, probably due to the impact of the campaign being waged by horse racing against the harmonisation of betting duty and remote gaming duty. The Conservatives have been strong in their opposition (though to be fair both Reform and the LDs are also opposed) and have always had strong roots in horse racing.
Reform won the seat, however, as they did the Conservative seat in Walsall but compared to another dire set of Labour numbers, the Conservatives may feel it's not been the worst of weeks for them.
Looking like my expectation that Starmer would shuffle off the scene and retire in year 4 of his stint as PM is optimistic.
If there's not another scandal to devour him first, it could come down to how long Labour MPs put up with being behind (or well behind) Reform in the polls. Plenty of AM/MSP candidates will be looking at all this and getting very angry
Surely UK Labour vote in a female leader next time
The dumpster fire that will be the utterly fractious leadership contest will be a laugh and a half
Judging by the DL contest not fractious at all.
In practice, there may not be one, but rather a coronation of the DL.
Streeting is young enough to keep his powder dry, and would lose anyway being Billy Nomates.
I'd have a bit more time for Mandelson if he said something like this:
"I knew Jeffrey for x years. We were friends, and I enjoyed his company. I never saw any sign or indication of abuse, and during the trial I felt like a good friend was being subjected to a witch-hunt. After conviction, I stood by him. This was a mistake, and over time I have heard the compelling stories of the many victims, and realise that I, like many others, were taken for a fool."
So you are saying there is a large upside potential?
Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
He could toast it with English Sparkling Wine.
Didn’t you get the memo?
ENGLISH FIZZ
lol. Does this upset you?
Au contraire, I'm endlessly entertained by your billowing, gaseous ego perpetually on the verge of bursting.
I also enjoy these (inter)national tiny dick measuring contests. I fear my campaign to rename our national drink, something with an actual international brand, to Scotch Bevvy will get nowhere.
Who gives a shit when we have Lagavulin and Highland Park, anyway?
So you guys actually ARE annoyed that English fizz is now delicious and celebrated?!
wtf
Scottish Nationalism must be the saddest nationalism on the planet. It is entirely centred on an all consuming inferiority complex via a vis England and Englishness, variously symptomised by envy, anger, loathing, fear and arse-puckeringly cringeworthy comments on geeky politics forums
It's your nationalism that is hypersensitive, chum.
I wasn't talking or thinking about English wine for a moment (indeed, I have been wondering about trying Nyetimber as a result of comments by you and others on here, and seeing how well it compares to Abbe Buckfast*).
I was talking about Scottish wine or rather the lack thereof, as the wording makes quite clear. No wine, sure, but equally that means no comparison. But why worry when we have single malts?
In January 2024 Starmer was explicitly asked about Mandelson and Epstein, and he said he didn’t know anything more than the reporter. A year later, post betting, he was in a America joking about how many people loved him as he appointed him Ambassador
Sky News asked Starmer back in January 2024 whether knew Mandelson had stayed at Epstein’s townhouse in 2009 - while Epstein was in jail. Mandelson was Labour Business Secretary and Gordon Brown’s Deputy PM. They specifically referenced both the @FT piece and the JP Morgan report
The FBI have released further video of someone jumping off the roof and running towards woodland, 'where a gun was found'
OK, but the guy leaving the roof doesn't appear to be carrying a long gun...
It looks like he only has a small backpack in the video.
It's all getting a bit "grassy knoll".
Some innocent engaging in a little lunchtime parkour? Needs some practice if so, to be fair.
Not saying this chap didn't do it (incidentally he doesn't look very Trans) but hard to see how he dropped the rifle in the woods on his way. Abandoning it on the roof maybe, but he doesn't appear to have taken it with him.
Yes but calling him a "loser, lefty trans" ticks all the right boxes for some. If it turns out NOT to be the case, as has happened with other recent acts of political violence and the culprit is much closer to home politically, it'll be interesting to see how the tune changes.
Someone online makes something up, Fox News runs with it, that is now the truth that 40% of the US will believe.
On checking re Scottish wines, and ignoring the fruit wine stuff, interestingly there is a research vineyard in Aberdeenshire using high-latitude varieties of grape eg as used in the Baltics.
The FBI have released further video of someone jumping off the roof and running towards woodland, 'where a gun was found'
OK, but the guy leaving the roof doesn't appear to be carrying a long gun...
It looks like he only has a small backpack in the video.
It's all getting a bit "grassy knoll".
Some innocent engaging in a little lunchtime parkour? Needs some practice if so, to be fair.
Not saying this chap didn't do it (incidentally he doesn't look very Trans) but hard to see how he dropped the rifle in the woods on his way. Abandoning it on the roof maybe, but he doesn't appear to have taken it with him.
Yes but calling him a "loser, lefty trans" ticks all the right boxes for some. If it turns out NOT to be the case, as has happened with other recent acts of political violence and the culprit is much closer to home politically, it'll be interesting to see how the tune changes.
The killer might easily be far right.
Nick Fuentes, and his circle, frequently denounced Kirk for "selling out to the Jews." Lauren Loomer condemned him for daring to criticise the Orange One, on occasion.
I'm tech support for various family and friends, including for Windows computer issues, which is kind of odd as my expertise is low - I use Linux at home and while I had a Windows laptop for work that's organisation-managed so I can't tweak any settings there, really. So, when I'm troubleshooting Windows I'm flailing around looking for equivalent settings to those available on Linux, which are often more hidden on Windows
Anyway, current problem. Elderly family member had Windows computer (Win 11) in study that wasn't connecting to any websites. I was able to diagnose the main problem - the ethernet cable I'd run from router at other end of the house to study was not plugged in at the router end and wifi was off (wifi is poor in study anyway). But once reconnected via ethernet cable, some sites were still not working - bbc.co.uk, lloydsbank.com, nts.org.uk - message, in Firefox and Edge (he doesn't have Chrome installed) was for website not found. Others such as google.com and amazon.co.uk working fine. My Linux laptop, on the same cable, connects fine to the problem websites. I thought maybe DNS (I've got Google DNS servers set up on the laptop, his laptop was getting DNS info via DHCP, presumably Sky DNS as that's the ISP) so I changed - I think - the DNS settings to Google on the Windows laptop too. No change in website access. Have since brought the laptop to my house and it connects fine to those sites (DHCP automatic DNS selection; my ISP is Plusnet).
So, this does have to be DNS, right? Is there something I'm missing in Windows to actually make it use set DNS servers? Does it need a reboot or something? Some kind of cache I need to clear if, say, the ISP DNS was returning junk which has been stored? Other diagnostics to run?
I guess ISP/router site restrictions/firewall are also possibilities, but I'd expect an error page more specific than can't find site in those cases? Should note that other devices on the network on Wifi have no issues connecting to any sites. The laptop, taken to the router and put on Wifi still had issues with those sites.
Just noticed the #Bongo&Kash tag for the dream team of director and deputy director of the FBI, now heading to Utah to solve the case of the disappearing trans assassin.
Tbf Sly Stallone might be more effective in either role.
Was the Trans bullet casings thing a far-right hoax in the end? Struggling to work out what the truth is but note quite a few papers still have that claim up, with others suggesting it was a false report from some dodgy law enforcement official.
Difficult to know what to trust in Trump's America.
You mean the nonesense about the headstamps that are common on brass?
Your thing that in the land of gun nuts…
TRN is a Turkish manufacturer's headstamp.
Is that was it was? Ffs.
As I was saying- emote and then scramble round for evidence to fit.
Look, we all do it, me included. It's part of the human condition. It's just that civilization and progress depend on not doing it. But chancers across the board exploit that effect as a hack to get the power they crave.
That's fair, but you'd expect US federal law enforcement and the Wall Street Journal to do better.
Credit where it's due, a decent evening for the Conservatives in the local by-elections.
Vote shares held up in some places and rose in Newmarket East, probably due to the impact of the campaign being waged by horse racing against the harmonisation of betting duty and remote gaming duty. The Conservatives have been strong in their opposition (though to be fair both Reform and the LDs are also opposed) and have always had strong roots in horse racing.
Reform won the seat, however, as they did the Conservative seat in Walsall but compared to another dire set of Labour numbers, the Conservatives may feel it's not been the worst of weeks for them.
Last nights results were a bit more in line with Ref Con Lab in the polls rather than Ref Lab Con. Lab falling to fourth in the Vale of G and Newmarket and behind the Tories in Hitchin is pretty grim for them. They did OK in Tatton tbf but their vote disappeared in Walsall/Aldridge-Brownhills. I suspect much of rural East Anglia will now be Ref Con fights (outside the LD blob and Waveney) there's a ward up in Truss old seat in a fortnight (Thetford Castle) I expect Reform to win and Labour to disintegrate - the Ref Con gap will be instructive
The FBI have released further video of someone jumping off the roof and running towards woodland, 'where a gun was found'
OK, but the guy leaving the roof doesn't appear to be carrying a long gun...
It looks like he only has a small backpack in the video.
It's all getting a bit "grassy knoll".
Some innocent engaging in a little lunchtime parkour? Needs some practice if so, to be fair.
Not saying this chap didn't do it (incidentally he doesn't look very Trans) but hard to see how he dropped the rifle in the woods on his way. Abandoning it on the roof maybe, but he doesn't appear to have taken it with him.
Surely he'd have more conspicuous there without a rifle than with one!
I am not saying he didn't have a rifle. I just dont see how the rifle got from the rooftop to the woods.
I'd have a bit more time for Mandelson if he said something like this:
"I knew Jeffrey for x years. We were friends, and I enjoyed his company. I never saw any sign or indication of abuse, and during the trial I felt like a good friend was being subjected to a witch-hunt. After conviction, I stood by him. This was a mistake, and over time I have heard the compelling stories of the many victims, and realise that I, like many others, were taken for a fool."
Yes, that would work. There are plenty of politicians going around saying Lucy Letby is innocent, so believing a convicted crim is the victim of a miscarriage of justice is hardly outlandish. Sir Keir and Mandy should have gone with something like that. Did Sir Keir simply panic?
As with others, I completely respect Mandelson's political achievements especially in the 80s and 90s when he was instrumental in turning Labour from a party flirting with obscurity to an unparalleled election winning machine. The Labour campaigns of the mid-90s and the GE campaign of 1997 were masterpieces of their time - the Conservatives, by contrast, were like a cyclist with a flat tyre trying to keep up,with a Ferrari.
That was then, however, and we know how Mandelson's time in office worked out (or didn't). His "I'm a fighter, not a quitter" line from 2001 was famously re-purposed by Liz Truss in 2022 (was it the day before she quit?).
I'm sure his advice was and has been useful for Labour and in that capacity he was probably a help to the re-habilitation of Labour under Starmer (the parallels between 2019 and 1983 for Labour were obvious) but to offer him the "reward" of such a significant Ambassadorial role knowing what was publicly (and privately) known about his relationship with Epstein seems to be the height of folly.
Mandelson is entitled to protest his innocence and "guilt by association" is only a crime in politics. The trouble is, Mandelson is politics and iyou have to play by the rules if you want to play the game. Had he remained quietly in the background, nothing of significance beyond the usual speculation would have occurred but re-emerging into the political frontline wasn't a good idea either for him or for Starmer, however much the latter may have felt he "owed" Madelson for his contributions.
The FBI have released further video of someone jumping off the roof and running towards woodland, 'where a gun was found'
OK, but the guy leaving the roof doesn't appear to be carrying a long gun...
This is not something I have ever considered deeply (…) but I can see the argument for abandoning the gun at the site assuming it was unconnected to you and you were able to limit DNA etc. Carrying a gun would delay you and would be rather suspicious…
So you are saying there is a large upside potential?
Yes, plus it is good for Labour that they aren't peaking too soon before the election.
GDP growth has actually been faster than most of the G7 this year. It just really hasn’t felt like it.
Well I shall be doing my bit for economic growth this week, as I have ordered four new Apple watches and five new iPhones.
That’s deserving of an MBE. We should start handing out gongs for ordinary people making extraordinary purchases.
He could toast it with English Sparkling Wine.
Didn’t you get the memo?
ENGLISH FIZZ
lol. Does this upset you?
Au contraire, I'm endlessly entertained by your billowing, gaseous ego perpetually on the verge of bursting.
I also enjoy these (inter)national tiny dick measuring contests. I fear my campaign to rename our national drink, something with an actual international brand, to Scotch Bevvy will get nowhere.
Who gives a shit when we have Lagavulin and Highland Park, anyway?
So you guys actually ARE annoyed that English fizz is now delicious and celebrated?!
wtf
Scottish Nationalism must be the saddest nationalism on the planet. It is entirely centred on an all consuming inferiority complex via a vis England and Englishness, variously symptomised by envy, anger, loathing, fear and arse-puckeringly cringeworthy comments on geeky politics forums
Credit where it's due, a decent evening for the Conservatives in the local by-elections.
Vote shares held up in some places and rose in Newmarket East, probably due to the impact of the campaign being waged by horse racing against the harmonisation of betting duty and remote gaming duty. The Conservatives have been strong in their opposition (though to be fair both Reform and the LDs are also opposed) and have always had strong roots in horse racing.
Reform won the seat, however, as they did the Conservative seat in Walsall but compared to another dire set of Labour numbers, the Conservatives may feel it's not been the worst of weeks for them.
Last nights results were a bit more in line with Ref Con Lab in the polls rather than Ref Lab Con. Lab falling to fourth in the Vale of G and Newmarket and behind the Tories in Hitchin is pretty grim for them. They did OK in Tatton tbf but their vote disappeared in Walsall/Aldridge-Brownhills. I suspect much of rural East Anglia will now be Ref Con fights (outside the LD blob and Waveney) there's a ward up in Truss old seat in a fortnight (Thetford Castle) I expect Reform to win and Labour to disintegrate - the Ref Con gap will be instructive
With these results, I think that Reform now lead the Greens by 855 to 847 in England and Wales. In the UK as a whole, the Greens remain slightly ahead, due to councillors in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
I'd have a bit more time for Mandelson if he said something like this:
"I knew Jeffrey for x years. We were friends, and I enjoyed his company. I never saw any sign or indication of abuse, and during the trial I felt like a good friend was being subjected to a witch-hunt. After conviction, I stood by him. This was a mistake, and over time I have heard the compelling stories of the many victims, and realise that I, like many others, were taken for a fool."
Yes, that would work. There are plenty of politicians going around saying Lucy Letby is innocent, so believing a convicted crim is the victim of a miscarriage of justice is hardly outlandish. Sir Keir and Mandy should have gone with something like that. Did Sir Keir simply panic?
It also plays the "I was sticking up for a friend" line, which i think many people can sympathise with. How would I react if a good friend was accused of crimes that I didn't believe he or she did? Would I abandon them, or support them?
The FBI have released further video of someone jumping off the roof and running towards woodland, 'where a gun was found'
OK, but the guy leaving the roof doesn't appear to be carrying a long gun...
It looks like he only has a small backpack in the video.
It's all getting a bit "grassy knoll".
Some innocent engaging in a little lunchtime parkour? Needs some practice if so, to be fair.
Not saying this chap didn't do it (incidentally he doesn't look very Trans) but hard to see how he dropped the rifle in the woods on his way. Abandoning it on the roof maybe, but he doesn't appear to have taken it with him.
Yes but calling him a "loser, lefty trans" ticks all the right boxes for some. If it turns out NOT to be the case, as has happened with other recent acts of political violence and the culprit is much closer to home politically, it'll be interesting to see how the tune changes.
The killer might easily be far right.
Nick Fuentes, and his circle, frequently denounced Kirk for "selling out to the Jews." Lauren Loomer condemned him for daring to criticise the Orange One, on occasion.
Or, if we're doing conspiracy theories, a Russian, as Leon posited.
And, just to get in my full quota today, this conspiracy theory is better supported than all of the above, by what evidence is out there (not a huge amount).
He is in ailing health, and while duly paying respects to those who lost their lives on 9/11 is barely able to control the right side of his face... (thread)
As with others, I completely respect Mandelson's political achievements especially in the 80s and 90s when he was instrumental in turning Labour from a party flirting with obscurity to an unparalleled election winning machine. The Labour campaigns of the mid-90s and the GE campaign of 1997 were masterpieces of their time - the Conservatives, by contrast, were like a cyclist with a flat tyre trying to keep up,with a Ferrari.
That was then, however, and we know how Mandelson's time in office worked out (or didn't). His "I'm a fighter, not a quitter" line from 2001 was famously re-purposed by Liz Truss in 2022 (was it the day before she quit?).
I'm sure his advice was and has been useful for Labour and in that capacity he was probably a help to the re-habilitation of Labour under Starmer (the parallels between 2019 and 1983 for Labour were obvious) but to offer him the "reward" of such a significant Ambassadorial role knowing what was publicly (and privately) known about his relationship with Epstein seems to be the height of folly.
Mandelson is entitled to protest his innocence and "guilt by association" is only a crime in politics. The trouble is, Mandelson is politics and iyou have to play by the rules if you want to play the game. Had he remained quietly in the background, nothing of significance beyond the usual speculation would have occurred but re-emerging into the political frontline wasn't a good idea either for him or for Starmer, however much the latter may have felt he "owed" Madelson for his contributions.
Also extremely unwise to put known Epstein pal Mandelson in the primary role of dealing with known Epstein pal Trump when the issue was bound to blow up sooner or later (sooner in fact). The strategising eejits (aka Morgan McSweeney etc) probably thought this was a masterstroke in establishing a rapport between Mandy and Don.
Credit where it's due, a decent evening for the Conservatives in the local by-elections.
Vote shares held up in some places and rose in Newmarket East, probably due to the impact of the campaign being waged by horse racing against the harmonisation of betting duty and remote gaming duty. The Conservatives have been strong in their opposition (though to be fair both Reform and the LDs are also opposed) and have always had strong roots in horse racing.
Reform won the seat, however, as they did the Conservative seat in Walsall but compared to another dire set of Labour numbers, the Conservatives may feel it's not been the worst of weeks for them.
Last nights results were a bit more in line with Ref Con Lab in the polls rather than Ref Lab Con. Lab falling to fourth in the Vale of G and Newmarket and behind the Tories in Hitchin is pretty grim for them. They did OK in Tatton tbf but their vote disappeared in Walsall/Aldridge-Brownhills. I suspect much of rural East Anglia will now be Ref Con fights (outside the LD blob and Waveney) there's a ward up in Truss old seat in a fortnight (Thetford Castle) I expect Reform to win and Labour to disintegrate - the Ref Con gap will be instructive
With these results, I think that Reform now lead the Greens by 855 to 847 in England and Wales. In the UK as a whole, the Greens remain slightly ahead, due to councillors in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
As with others, I completely respect Mandelson's political achievements especially in the 80s and 90s when he was instrumental in turning Labour from a party flirting with obscurity to an unparalleled election winning machine. The Labour campaigns of the mid-90s and the GE campaign of 1997 were masterpieces of their time - the Conservatives, by contrast, were like a cyclist with a flat tyre trying to keep up,with a Ferrari.
That was then, however, and we know how Mandelson's time in office worked out (or didn't). His "I'm a fighter, not a quitter" line from 2001 was famously re-purposed by Liz Truss in 2022 (was it the day before she quit?).
I'm sure his advice was and has been useful for Labour and in that capacity he was probably a help to the re-habilitation of Labour under Starmer (the parallels between 2019 and 1983 for Labour were obvious) but to offer him the "reward" of such a significant Ambassadorial role knowing what was publicly (and privately) known about his relationship with Epstein seems to be the height of folly.
Mandelson is entitled to protest his innocence and "guilt by association" is only a crime in politics. The trouble is, Mandelson is politics and iyou have to play by the rules if you want to play the game. Had he remained quietly in the background, nothing of significance beyond the usual speculation would have occurred but re-emerging into the political frontline wasn't a good idea either for him or for Starmer, however much the latter may have felt he "owed" Madelson for his contributions.
It's not exactly guilt by association, though, is it ?
Extended and close association with a known convicted felon, who later went on to be unmasked as a major criminal, simply isn't compatible with representing the UK as our ambassador.
Mandelson is perfectly entitled to defend his innocence regarding any criminal entanglement, but the idea that he's been treated unfairly regarding his sacking is utterly ludicrous.
For a bit of fun this morning i did a quick cross reference of last nights local by election results (4 Reform gains from Labx2, Tory and ind, 1 Tory gain from Residents Assoc.) to the relevant ward at the GE and applied the swing to the seats. So we would get these five results at a GE (reminder JUST FOR FUN)
Reform gain Vale of Glamorgan and Hitchin from Labour Reform gain Aldridge-Brownhillls from Conservative Conservative (Esther McVey) hold Tatton Conservative (Nick Timothy) just holds on in West Suffolk
I really do not think labour can count on winning anywhere in Wales at present
Cardiff i think will be ok for them but the rest look iffy. The Vale ward is traditional Lab/Con swing ward and they fell to 3rd and 4th - Labour to fourth from first last time and easily winning the ward last July in the GE
Traditional Labour areas along the M4 and A55 are going big for Reform. The ward that went Reform in Romilly Park yesterday isn't exactly a haven for asylum seekers but the message is getting through that Labour love asylum seekers and if Butlins were still on Barry Island they would be housing them there.
Both the Conservatives and Reform campaigning against the million net immigrants per year that Labour have been bringing in since 2019 may be counterfactual, but it has touched a nerve.
The FBI have released further video of someone jumping off the roof and running towards woodland, 'where a gun was found'
OK, but the guy leaving the roof doesn't appear to be carrying a long gun...
It looks like he only has a small backpack in the video.
It's all getting a bit "grassy knoll".
Some innocent engaging in a little lunchtime parkour? Needs some practice if so, to be fair.
Not saying this chap didn't do it (incidentally he doesn't look very Trans) but hard to see how he dropped the rifle in the woods on his way. Abandoning it on the roof maybe, but he doesn't appear to have taken it with him.
Yes but calling him a "loser, lefty trans" ticks all the right boxes for some. If it turns out NOT to be the case, as has happened with other recent acts of political violence and the culprit is much closer to home politically, it'll be interesting to see how the tune changes.
The killer might easily be far right.
Nick Fuentes, and his circle, frequently denounced Kirk for "selling out to the Jews." Lauren Loomer condemned him for daring to criticise the Orange One, on occasion.
Or, if we're doing conspiracy theories, a Russian, as Leon posited.
And, just to get in my full quota today, this conspiracy theory is better supported than all of the above, by what evidence is out there (not a huge amount).
He is in ailing health, and while duly paying respects to those who lost their lives on 9/11 is barely able to control the right side of his face... (thread)
The speculated use of AI for the message from Trump is kinda mad.
Makes you wonder what use Stalin and later Soviet leaders would have had for the technology.
As with others, I completely respect Mandelson's political achievements especially in the 80s and 90s when he was instrumental in turning Labour from a party flirting with obscurity to an unparalleled election winning machine. The Labour campaigns of the mid-90s and the GE campaign of 1997 were masterpieces of their time - the Conservatives, by contrast, were like a cyclist with a flat tyre trying to keep up,with a Ferrari.
That was then, however, and we know how Mandelson's time in office worked out (or didn't). His "I'm a fighter, not a quitter" line from 2001 was famously re-purposed by Liz Truss in 2022 (was it the day before she quit?).
I'm sure his advice was and has been useful for Labour and in that capacity he was probably a help to the re-habilitation of Labour under Starmer (the parallels between 2019 and 1983 for Labour were obvious) but to offer him the "reward" of such a significant Ambassadorial role knowing what was publicly (and privately) known about his relationship with Epstein seems to be the height of folly.
Mandelson is entitled to protest his innocence and "guilt by association" is only a crime in politics. The trouble is, Mandelson is politics and iyou have to play by the rules if you want to play the game. Had he remained quietly in the background, nothing of significance beyond the usual speculation would have occurred but re-emerging into the political frontline wasn't a good idea either for him or for Starmer, however much the latter may have felt he "owed" Madelson for his contributions.
Also extremely unwise to put known Epstein pal Mandelson in the primary role of dealing with known Epstein pal Trump when the issue was bound to blow up sooner or later (sooner in fact). The strategising eejits (aka Morgan McSweeney etc) probably thought this was a masterstroke in establishing a rapport between Mandy and Don.
The available evidence suggests that it worked quite well since the inauguration. I think Britain generally has the best diplomatic relationship with the US for any country that doesn't have a dictator or right-wing mini-Trump as leader. I think it's fair to give Mandelson a lot of credit for that.
But they weren't able to defuse this story, or to deal with it effectively once it blew up.
So you are saying there is a large upside potential?
It’s becoming ever clearer that Britain’s primary economic problem is penny-pinching households and businesses. Labour have managed to suppress confidence even further since their election. Reeves’ number one priority at the budget should be to boost confidence.
The lack of confidence is a symptom of the problem, not the problem in itself. The problem is a state that seems determined to strangle economic growth, even as it gaslights about wanting to boost it. That causes low confidence. And to boost confidence in the private sector, which is the ultimate source of all long term economic growth, the government needs to stop raising taxes on the productive and enterprising, cut spending on unproductive malingerers and losers and deregulate.
But they're going to jack up taxes further, especially no doubt those taxes (business and payroll) that hurt growth in the long term and regulate more. And they've failed spectacularly to cut spending despite a gigantic majority.
So, barring some miracle or change in the laws of economics, we have at least three more years of stagnation.
I would love to be wrong about this but I'm almost certain.
I'd have a bit more time for Mandelson if he said something like this:
"I knew Jeffrey for x years. We were friends, and I enjoyed his company. I never saw any sign or indication of abuse, and during the trial I felt like a good friend was being subjected to a witch-hunt. After conviction, I stood by him. This was a mistake, and over time I have heard the compelling stories of the many victims, and realise that I, like many others, were taken for a fool."
Yes, that would work. There are plenty of politicians going around saying Lucy Letby is innocent, so believing a convicted crim is the victim of a miscarriage of justice is hardly outlandish. Sir Keir and Mandy should have gone with something like that. Did Sir Keir simply panic?
Panic might be the wrong word. Keir Starmer seems to have decided on a two-speed approach (2-gear Keir?) is of the essence in potential scandals, so Angela Rayner went in two days once the ethics adviser was asked to investigate and report, and Mandelson lasted a similarly short time once the email cache was published, but in each case this followed masterly inactivity while it looked as if the Mandelson and Rayner cases were salvageable, Rayner because of confusion around what constituted taking advice, and Mandelson when it was just the birthday message.
ETA so qualified loyalty followed by ruthless termination.
The FBI have released further video of someone jumping off the roof and running towards woodland, 'where a gun was found'
OK, but the guy leaving the roof doesn't appear to be carrying a long gun...
It looks like he only has a small backpack in the video.
It's all getting a bit "grassy knoll".
Some innocent engaging in a little lunchtime parkour? Needs some practice if so, to be fair.
Not saying this chap didn't do it (incidentally he doesn't look very Trans) but hard to see how he dropped the rifle in the woods on his way. Abandoning it on the roof maybe, but he doesn't appear to have taken it with him.
Surely he'd have more conspicuous there without a rifle than with one!
I am not saying he didn't have a rifle. I just dont see how the rifle got from the rooftop to the woods.
Agreed. I was just being a little facetious about gun-carrying Americans. But it didn't look as though the chap who jumped down from the roof was carrying anything.
An associate the other side of the building took the gun?
The FBI have released further video of someone jumping off the roof and running towards woodland, 'where a gun was found'
OK, but the guy leaving the roof doesn't appear to be carrying a long gun...
It looks like he only has a small backpack in the video.
It's all getting a bit "grassy knoll".
Some innocent engaging in a little lunchtime parkour? Needs some practice if so, to be fair.
Not saying this chap didn't do it (incidentally he doesn't look very Trans) but hard to see how he dropped the rifle in the woods on his way. Abandoning it on the roof maybe, but he doesn't appear to have taken it with him.
Surely he'd have more conspicuous there without a rifle than with one!
I am not saying he didn't have a rifle. I just dont see how the rifle got from the rooftop to the woods.
Agreed. I was just being a little facetious about gun-carrying Americans. But it didn't look as though the chap who jumped down from the roof was carrying anything.
An associate the other side of the building took the gun?
I don't think the suspect in the video can possibly be trans.
I mean, how can you jump off a roof like that whilst in high heels?
Looking like my expectation that Starmer would shuffle off the scene and retire in year 4 of his stint as PM is optimistic.
If there's not another scandal to devour him first, it could come down to how long Labour MPs put up with being behind (or well behind) Reform in the polls. Plenty of AM/MSP candidates will be looking at all this and getting very angry
Surely UK Labour vote in a female leader next time
Yep. Hence my Phillipson bet at 33/1 for next PM.
Starmer is stubborn and has the hide of a rhinoceros, and even less insight. So I wouldn't expect him to step down any time soon. 2028, I think.
Incidentally, I dont think Mandelson will publically turn on Starmer. He is certainly enraged, but too much a Labour loyalist.
Not only is Starmer stubborn but if he believes all rules were followed he seems genuinely confused when things blow up.
....Procedure was followed as required in section 8, subsection 27, paragraph 5.....and therefore I do not understand why there is any issue what so ever over my conduct in this matter....it was an independent process and no further information crossed my desk....
As with others, I completely respect Mandelson's political achievements especially in the 80s and 90s when he was instrumental in turning Labour from a party flirting with obscurity to an unparalleled election winning machine. The Labour campaigns of the mid-90s and the GE campaign of 1997 were masterpieces of their time - the Conservatives, by contrast, were like a cyclist with a flat tyre trying to keep up,with a Ferrari.
That was then, however, and we know how Mandelson's time in office worked out (or didn't). His "I'm a fighter, not a quitter" line from 2001 was famously re-purposed by Liz Truss in 2022 (was it the day before she quit?).
I'm sure his advice was and has been useful for Labour and in that capacity he was probably a help to the re-habilitation of Labour under Starmer (the parallels between 2019 and 1983 for Labour were obvious) but to offer him the "reward" of such a significant Ambassadorial role knowing what was publicly (and privately) known about his relationship with Epstein seems to be the height of folly.
Mandelson is entitled to protest his innocence and "guilt by association" is only a crime in politics. The trouble is, Mandelson is politics and iyou have to play by the rules if you want to play the game. Had he remained quietly in the background, nothing of significance beyond the usual speculation would have occurred but re-emerging into the political frontline wasn't a good idea either for him or for Starmer, however much the latter may have felt he "owed" Madelson for his contributions.
Also extremely unwise to put known Epstein pal Mandelson in the primary role of dealing with known Epstein pal Trump when the issue was bound to blow up sooner or later (sooner in fact). The strategising eejits (aka Morgan McSweeney etc) probably thought this was a masterstroke in establishing a rapport between Mandy and Don.
The available evidence suggests that it worked quite well since the inauguration. I think Britain generally has the best diplomatic relationship with the US for any country that doesn't have a dictator or right-wing mini-Trump as leader. I think it's fair to give Mandelson a lot of credit for that.
But they weren't able to defuse this story, or to deal with it effectively once it blew up.
So we achieve by grovelling what the dictators & right-wing mini-Trumps do by running rings round the fuddled old buffoon? Not sure if it's quite a definition of success, particularly when capricious old Don can flip at any minute.
Was the Trans bullet casings thing a far-right hoax in the end? Struggling to work out what the truth is but note quite a few papers still have that claim up, with others suggesting it was a false report from some dodgy law enforcement official.
Difficult to know what to trust in Trump's America.
You mean the nonesense about the headstamps that are common on brass?
Your thing that in the land of gun nuts…
TRN is a Turkish manufacturer's headstamp.
Is that was it was? Ffs.
As I was saying- emote and then scramble round for evidence to fit.
Look, we all do it, me included. It's part of the human condition. It's just that civilization and progress depend on not doing it. But chancers across the board exploit that effect as a hack to get the power they crave.
That's fair, but you'd expect US federal law enforcement and the Wall Street Journal to do better.
The leadership of US federal law enforcement has been replaced by a bunch of people whose only qualifications are that the loooooooooove Trump.
So you are saying there is a large upside potential?
It’s becoming ever clearer that Britain’s primary economic problem is penny-pinching households and businesses. Labour have managed to suppress confidence even further since their election. Reeves’ number one priority at the budget should be to boost confidence.
The lack of confidence is a symptom of the problem, not the problem in itself. The problem is a state that seems determined to strangle economic growth, even as it gaslights about wanting to boost it. That causes low confidence. And to boost confidence in the private sector, which is the ultimate source of all long term economic growth, the government needs to stop raising taxes on the productive and enterprising, cut spending on unproductive malingerers and losers and deregulate.
But they're going to jack up taxes further, especially no doubt those taxes (business and payroll) that hurt growth in the long term and regulate more. And they've failed spectacularly to cut spending despite a gigantic majority.
So, barring some miracle or change in the laws of economics, we have at least three more years of stagnation.
I would love to be wrong about this but I'm almost certain.
But the way that economic confidence is becoming split on party lines suggests that people's reports of economic confidence have less to do the actual economic state of the nation and more to do with online polarisation.
I'd have a bit more time for Mandelson if he said something like this:
"I knew Jeffrey for x years. We were friends, and I enjoyed his company. I never saw any sign or indication of abuse, and during the trial I felt like a good friend was being subjected to a witch-hunt. After conviction, I stood by him. This was a mistake, and over time I have heard the compelling stories of the many victims, and realise that I, like many others, were taken for a fool."
Yes, that would work. There are plenty of politicians going around saying Lucy Letby is innocent, so believing a convicted crim is the victim of a miscarriage of justice is hardly outlandish. Sir Keir and Mandy should have gone with something like that. Did Sir Keir simply panic?
I'd have a bit more time for Mandelson if he said something like this:
"I knew Jeffrey for x years. We were friends, and I enjoyed his company. I never saw any sign or indication of abuse, and during the trial I felt like a good friend was being subjected to a witch-hunt. After conviction, I stood by him. This was a mistake, and over time I have heard the compelling stories of the many victims, and realise that I, like many others, were taken for a fool."
Yes, that would work. There are plenty of politicians going around saying Lucy Letby is innocent, so believing a convicted crim is the victim of a miscarriage of justice is hardly outlandish. Sir Keir and Mandy should have gone with something like that. Did Sir Keir simply panic?
It also plays the "I was sticking up for a friend" line, which i think many people can sympathise with. How would I react if a good friend was accused of crimes that I didn't believe he or she did? Would I abandon them, or support them?
Epstein pleaded guilty. He did a plea bargain with the US authorities and the criticism at the time and later was that he had got off lightly and been given a lighter sentence than others would have.
Isn't it more likely that all these friends of Epstein simply didn't think that what he did was wrong, that the girls were willing participants or tarts and therefore simply not worth worrying about?
This after all was exactly the views that many had about the girls abused by the grooming gangs in Britain. Just because Epstein and Co were rich and the abuse took place on a nice island or in lovely houses doesn't take away from the fact that the abusive men probably had the same dismissive attitude to the girls they used.
Pete, you're obsessed with Boris. You see Boris fans everywhere. There are hardly any. Most of us on the right were at best deeply ambivalent about him at the time - you juat didn't see it because you perceived any failure to be constantly furious about every aspect of him as wild fandom.
What is sauce for the goose etc.
I am just so dismayed that this week's Johnson revelations regarding Madura et al don't make any noise in the media outside the Guardian. Now you might counter that with " well he's no longer in Government". And that would be true.
Even when he was in Government he never set the media pulse racing with, what I consider to be the most egregious genuine national security scandal since World War II. A scandal which had it involved ANYONE else would have been bigger than Profumo. I am talking about a UK Foreign Secretary shaking off his minders to attend a "Gentleman's" party in Lombardy hosted by the KGB.
And yet on here and in the media he is revered for "having got all the big calls right".
I don't think you're reading this right. Almost no-one on here reveres Boris. But there are some - and I think you are one - for whom their hatred of him is so all-consuming that they see any failure to criticise him as reverence - even for things completely unpolitical. I find him an entertaining writer for example. Clearly many do - he made a career out of it. But even that rankles for you, doesn't it - your quick brain is thinking "that Cookie, he finds Boris an entertaining writer, he reveres him and secretly wants him back as PM". But I don't. I agree he was a distinctly sub-optimal PM. I did vote for him, and I don't regret it, because my view was and remains that PM Corbyn would have been far worse. And I think during covid he got a lot wrong, but so did everybody - and I think he got less wrong than most of his counterparts on the continent or in Scotland or Wales (and, as I've said, Starmer at LOTO absolutely did get everything wrong - normally demonstrably so within weeks). Even terrible people are right sometimes. It's possible to concede good qualities about politicians you think are very bad for the country. Look, I'll start: Keir Starmer: he's a good looking fella with good hair. Gordon Brown: by all appearances, a decent father and husband. Jeremy Corbyn: I actually find his fondness for allotments and grids admirable. Doesn't mean I'm a fan of any of them. But nor am I under the illusion that these people are the worst people in history or that anyone who sees any positive aspects of them at all must be in love with them.
You have just countered my post of why I despise ( but do not hate) Johnson by explaining that during COVID Starmer got everything wrong and by contrast Johnson got it right. And a hatful of people have given you likes.
Revered, loved and exempt from too much criticism, even when his behaviour and incompetence have been outrageous.
Was the Trans bullet casings thing a far-right hoax in the end? Struggling to work out what the truth is but note quite a few papers still have that claim up, with others suggesting it was a false report from some dodgy law enforcement official.
Difficult to know what to trust in Trump's America.
You mean the nonesense about the headstamps that are common on brass?
Your thing that in the land of gun nuts…
TRN is a Turkish manufacturer's headstamp.
Is that was it was? Ffs.
As I was saying- emote and then scramble round for evidence to fit.
Look, we all do it, me included. It's part of the human condition. It's just that civilization and progress depend on not doing it. But chancers across the board exploit that effect as a hack to get the power they crave.
That's fair, but you'd expect US federal law enforcement and the Wall Street Journal to do better.
The leadership of US federal law enforcement has been replaced by a bunch of people whose only qualifications are that the loooooooooove Trump.
Note they sacked the Utah FBI field director a couple of weeks before this incident, because his face didn't fit with the new regime.
I much prefer this weather to the heat of a month or so ago, but surprised it's so cool.
Has NATO decided whether to actually do something about the Russian drone incursion, beyond tutting?
They're sending a lot air defence assets to Poland and begging the Ukrainians for drone interceptors.
It looks a lot like normalising Russia sending repeated waves of drones into Poland, rather than doing something to prevent or deter it, while weakening Ukraine's defences.
The current Zapad exercise is already creating a fair deal of tension, and the Russians are demanding that the Poles open the Belarusian frontier, which is currently closed. The timing for countermeasures is not ideal. After Zapad ends, then I suspect a few Russian assets may end up going "bang". The petrol shortages in Russia are not easing and the Russian economy is sagging again. The Ukrainians are also mauling the Russian attacks very intensely, and some Russian units disintegrated. You can see why the Russians timed their attacks on Poland in the way they did, so if Trump really thinks they were a "mistake", then perhaps his alleged stroke has damaged his cognition to article 25 levels.
I had to get a taxi this morning, so you know what that means? It's another PB taxi driver story!
My minicab driver was very chatty and explained how... Rayner knew what she was doing and will go on I'm a Celebrity (but notStrictly). He reckoned there would be a general election next year, because there would be so many defections and/or Starmer would rather lose at a general election than stand down and be replaced by another Labour leader. Oh, and the government would have to go to the IMF soon because of government finances, and Labour will probably introduce a 10% tax on the value of your house. There'd be a Tory/Reform coalition after the election
You heard it here first. Well, second... OK, maybe seventy-sixth...
What happens when we get to the end of 2026 and Labour are still firmly in power? Presumably nothing, everyone will forget their predictions.
I much prefer this weather to the heat of a month or so ago, but surprised it's so cool.
Has NATO decided whether to actually do something about the Russian drone incursion, beyond tutting?
They're sending a lot air defence assets to Poland and begging the Ukrainians for drone interceptors.
It looks a lot like normalising Russia sending repeated waves of drones into Poland, rather than doing something to prevent or deter it, while weakening Ukraine's defences.
The current Zapad exercise is already creating a fair deal of tension, and the Russians are demanding that the Poles open the Belarusian frontier, which is currently closed. The timing for countermeasures is not ideal. After Zapad ends, then I suspect a few Russian assets may end up going "bang". The petrol shortages in Russia are not easing and the Russian economy is sagging again. The Ukrainians are also mauling the Russian attacks very intensely, and some Russian units disintegrated. You can see why the Russians timed their attacks on Poland in the way they did, so if Trump really thinks they were a "mistake", then perhaps his alleged stroke has damaged his cognition to article 25 levels.
"We were supposed to have sanctions, and instead we got Alaska,” said Radosław Sikorski, Poland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Deputy Prime Minister, on Fox News with Bret Baier. https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1966396148555624803
So you are saying there is a large upside potential?
It’s becoming ever clearer that Britain’s primary economic problem is penny-pinching households and businesses. Labour have managed to suppress confidence even further since their election. Reeves’ number one priority at the budget should be to boost confidence.
I don't say you're wrong, but so many households known to me can't stretch their income to cover the full week. Spending every penny isn't penny pinching, it's feeling the pinch badly.
That’s always been true of many (even most) households. But it is emphatically not true of many many households. And it is absolutely emphatically true of many businesses that have got into the habit of sweating assets rather than investing in growth.
Our national savings rate is at historically high levels, and private (both household and corporate) debt is the lowest it’s been since the noughties. No wonder government debt is so high.
private (both household and corporate) debt is the lowest it’s been since the noughties
You say that as if you think its a bad thing.
It was excessive private debt that nearly destroyed the economy in 2007-2010.
Many of those individuals and businesses you lament for not having enough debt only survived 2007-2010 by not having too much debt.
Just to address this point from earlier in the thread.
The 2008 financial crisis has a lot to answer for. It did indeed burst what had become a debt bubble - though that debt bubble was very specifically related to excessive lending to American house buyers with no means to repay, and then repackaged into derivatives that banks poured into without any meaningful due diligence. That all led to systemic failure in the banking system, and money supply dried up.
The lesson most countries took from this, and the subsequent Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, was that everyone had borrowed too much and we needed to retrench. Governments, corporations, and households. I say most countries, because the USA took the opposite lesson - informed probably by its own experience in the 30s - and took a Keynesian approach to recovery. The USA recovered better than almost all major economies.
We then had QE for years. This suppressed interest rates, and in theory should have made saving less appealing and encouraged spending. What it encouraged instead was a series of asset bubbles fuelled by cheap finance, and the explosion of PE. But the assets seeing the bubbles were too often unproductive ones like real estate, or made unproductive in the case of equity by cost take-out from the buyers looking to flip at a profit.
Meanwhile households continued to feel the fear and put more and more money away for a rainy day, typically in low yielding unproductive assets. Just like Japan from 1990 onwards. And governments regulated banking capital to such an extent that risk taking almost disappeared from mortgage or business lending.
And the low interest rates combined with risk averse lending meant that inefficient companies could survive as zombies, while more enterprising growth companies struggled to expand. Except, again, in the USA where VC money continued to flow and the corporate world continued to invest.
Then we saw 2 crises in a row, both of which sapped confidence and reinforced the rainy day message: Covid, and the invasion of Ukraine.
The pendulum swings, and always overcorrects. We have been in a state of overcorrection since 2008. I know it’s totally counterintuitive to a generation brought up on the received wisdom that British consumers are spendthrift and over-indebted, and businesses need to protect margins rather than taking risks, but it’s what the comparative data say. If businesses don’t invest and consumers don’t spend (or at least save into productive growth assets) then the economy won’t grow.
The FBI have released further video of someone jumping off the roof and running towards woodland, 'where a gun was found'
OK, but the guy leaving the roof doesn't appear to be carrying a long gun...
It looks like he only has a small backpack in the video.
It's all getting a bit "grassy knoll".
Some innocent engaging in a little lunchtime parkour? Needs some practice if so, to be fair.
Not saying this chap didn't do it (incidentally he doesn't look very Trans) but hard to see how he dropped the rifle in the woods on his way. Abandoning it on the roof maybe, but he doesn't appear to have taken it with him.
Surely he'd have more conspicuous there without a rifle than with one!
I am not saying he didn't have a rifle. I just dont see how the rifle got from the rooftop to the woods.
Agreed. I was just being a little facetious about gun-carrying Americans. But it didn't look as though the chap who jumped down from the roof was carrying anything.
An associate the other side of the building took the gun?
I don't think the suspect in the video can possibly be trans.
I mean, how can you jump off a roof like that whilst in high heels?
I had to get a taxi this morning, so you know what that means? It's another PB taxi driver story!
My minicab driver was very chatty and explained how... Rayner knew what she was doing and will go on I'm a Celebrity (but notStrictly). He reckoned there would be a general election next year, because there would be so many defections and/or Starmer would rather lose at a general election than stand down and be replaced by another Labour leader. Oh, and the government would have to go to the IMF soon because of government finances, and Labour will probably introduce a 10% tax on the value of your house. There'd be a Tory/Reform coalition after the election
You heard it here first. Well, second... OK, maybe seventy-sixth...
What happens when we get to the end of 2026 and Labour are still firmly in power? Presumably nothing, everyone will forget their predictions.
"Presumably nothing, everyone will forget their predictions".
I had to get a taxi this morning, so you know what that means? It's another PB taxi driver story!
My minicab driver was very chatty and explained how... Rayner knew what she was doing and will go on I'm a Celebrity (but notStrictly). He reckoned there would be a general election next year, because there would be so many defections and/or Starmer would rather lose at a general election than stand down and be replaced by another Labour leader. Oh, and the government would have to go to the IMF soon because of government finances, and Labour will probably introduce a 10% tax on the value of your house. There'd be a Tory/Reform coalition after the election
You heard it here first. Well, second... OK, maybe seventy-sixth...
What happens when we get to the end of 2026 and Labour are still firmly in power? Presumably nothing, everyone will forget their predictions.
Am election next year requires 90 or so MPs to leave the Labour Party and then as Turkeys vote for Christmas - I don’t see it happening
The FBI have released further video of someone jumping off the roof and running towards woodland, 'where a gun was found'
OK, but the guy leaving the roof doesn't appear to be carrying a long gun...
It looks like he only has a small backpack in the video.
It's all getting a bit "grassy knoll".
Some innocent engaging in a little lunchtime parkour? Needs some practice if so, to be fair.
Not saying this chap didn't do it (incidentally he doesn't look very Trans) but hard to see how he dropped the rifle in the woods on his way. Abandoning it on the roof maybe, but he doesn't appear to have taken it with him.
Yes but calling him a "loser, lefty trans" ticks all the right boxes for some. If it turns out NOT to be the case, as has happened with other recent acts of political violence and the culprit is much closer to home politically, it'll be interesting to see how the tune changes.
The killer might easily be far right.
Nick Fuentes, and his circle, frequently denounced Kirk for "selling out to the Jews." Lauren Loomer condemned him for daring to criticise the Orange One, on occasion.
Or he may no particular political persuasion at all. After all, Trump's would-be assassin, Thomas Crooks, didn't seems to have views that aligned with either the right or left ends of the political spectrum, being both a registered Republican and having donated to a Democrat fund-raiser. He could just be a nutter with a grudge against humanity.
I'd have a bit more time for Mandelson if he said something like this:
"I knew Jeffrey for x years. We were friends, and I enjoyed his company. I never saw any sign or indication of abuse, and during the trial I felt like a good friend was being subjected to a witch-hunt. After conviction, I stood by him. This was a mistake, and over time I have heard the compelling stories of the many victims, and realise that I, like many others, were taken for a fool."
Yes, that would work. There are plenty of politicians going around saying Lucy Letby is innocent, so believing a convicted crim is the victim of a miscarriage of justice is hardly outlandish. Sir Keir and Mandy should have gone with something like that. Did Sir Keir simply panic?
I'd have a bit more time for Mandelson if he said something like this:
"I knew Jeffrey for x years. We were friends, and I enjoyed his company. I never saw any sign or indication of abuse, and during the trial I felt like a good friend was being subjected to a witch-hunt. After conviction, I stood by him. This was a mistake, and over time I have heard the compelling stories of the many victims, and realise that I, like many others, were taken for a fool."
Yes, that would work. There are plenty of politicians going around saying Lucy Letby is innocent, so believing a convicted crim is the victim of a miscarriage of justice is hardly outlandish. Sir Keir and Mandy should have gone with something like that. Did Sir Keir simply panic?
It also plays the "I was sticking up for a friend" line, which i think many people can sympathise with. How would I react if a good friend was accused of crimes that I didn't believe he or she did? Would I abandon them, or support them?
Epstein pleaded guilty. He did a plea bargain with the US authorities and the criticism at the time and later was that he had got off lightly and been given a lighter sentence than others would have.
Isn't it more likely that all these friends of Epstein simply didn't think that what he did was wrong, that the girls were willing participants or tarts and therefore simply not worth worrying about?
This after all was exactly the views that many had about the girls abused by the grooming gangs in Britain. Just because Epstein and Co were rich and the abuse took place on a nice island or in lovely houses doesn't take away from the fact that the abusive men probably had the same dismissive attitude to the girls they used.
There is certainly that possibility; indeed, it is perhaps more likely than my text.
But look at the way Lucy Connolly pled guilty, but is still seen by many as being a heroine. As I said in my post above, how far would you go to stick up for a good friend? People lie to themselves all the time, and "He can't possibly be guilty, as there's no way I could have been friends with someone like that without realising."
I do think the little paragraph I gave would have placed Mandelson in a better position than he now finds himself in.
So you are saying there is a large upside potential?
It’s becoming ever clearer that Britain’s primary economic problem is penny-pinching households and businesses. Labour have managed to suppress confidence even further since their election. Reeves’ number one priority at the budget should be to boost confidence.
The lack of confidence is a symptom of the problem, not the problem in itself. The problem is a state that seems determined to strangle economic growth, even as it gaslights about wanting to boost it. That causes low confidence. And to boost confidence in the private sector, which is the ultimate source of all long term economic growth, the government needs to stop raising taxes on the productive and enterprising, cut spending on unproductive malingerers and losers and deregulate.
But they're going to jack up taxes further, especially no doubt those taxes (business and payroll) that hurt growth in the long term and regulate more. And they've failed spectacularly to cut spending despite a gigantic majority.
So, barring some miracle or change in the laws of economics, we have at least three more years of stagnation.
I would love to be wrong about this but I'm almost certain.
ODD THINGS GOING ON WITH FISHING’s FORMATTING. THIS IS MY REPLY
It’s been a structural problem for this country since 2008. Labour may make it worse or better, but look around at our peers and most are in a similar position. The big area where we’re worse is in business investment and productivity growth, and there we lag several countries with much higher taxes and a much larger public sector.
So you are saying there is a large upside potential?
It’s becoming ever clearer that Britain’s primary economic problem is penny-pinching households and businesses. Labour have managed to suppress confidence even further since their election. Reeves’ number one priority at the budget should be to boost confidence.
I don't say you're wrong, but so many households known to me can't stretch their income to cover the full week. Spending every penny isn't penny pinching, it's feeling the pinch badly.
That’s always been true of many (even most) households. But it is emphatically not true of many many households. And it is absolutely emphatically true of many businesses that have got into the habit of sweating assets rather than investing in growth.
Our national savings rate is at historically high levels, and private (both household and corporate) debt is the lowest it’s been since the noughties. No wonder government debt is so high.
private (both household and corporate) debt is the lowest it’s been since the noughties
You say that as if you think its a bad thing.
It was excessive private debt that nearly destroyed the economy in 2007-2010.
Many of those individuals and businesses you lament for not having enough debt only survived 2007-2010 by not having too much debt.
Just to address this point from earlier in the thread.
The 2008 financial crisis has a lot to answer for. It did indeed burst what had become a debt bubble - though that debt bubble was very specifically related to excessive lending to American house buyers with no means to repay, and then repackaged into derivatives that banks poured into without any meaningful due diligence. That all led to systemic failure in the banking system, and money supply dried up.
The lesson most countries took from this, and the subsequent Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, was that everyone had borrowed too much and we needed to retrench. Governments, corporations, and households. I say most countries, because the USA took the opposite lesson - informed probably by its own experience in the 30s - and took a Keynesian approach to recovery. The USA recovered better than almost all major economies.
We then had QE for years. This suppressed interest rates, and in theory should have made saving less appealing and encouraged spending. What it encouraged instead was a series of asset bubbles fuelled by cheap finance, and the explosion of PE. But the assets seeing the bubbles were too often unproductive ones like real estate, or made unproductive in the case of equity by cost take-out from the buyers looking to flip at a profit...
That is surely the fault of successive administrations failing to invest sufficiently in economically productive infrastructure ?
The private sector was always going to do what it does. Governments didn't have to limit their spending on investment in the way they did - at a time when they could have still borrowed for the ling term, very cheaply.
The FBI have released further video of someone jumping off the roof and running towards woodland, 'where a gun was found'
OK, but the guy leaving the roof doesn't appear to be carrying a long gun...
It looks like he only has a small backpack in the video.
It's all getting a bit "grassy knoll".
Some innocent engaging in a little lunchtime parkour? Needs some practice if so, to be fair.
Not saying this chap didn't do it (incidentally he doesn't look very Trans) but hard to see how he dropped the rifle in the woods on his way. Abandoning it on the roof maybe, but he doesn't appear to have taken it with him.
Yes but calling him a "loser, lefty trans" ticks all the right boxes for some. If it turns out NOT to be the case, as has happened with other recent acts of political violence and the culprit is much closer to home politically, it'll be interesting to see how the tune changes.
The killer might easily be far right.
Nick Fuentes, and his circle, frequently denounced Kirk for "selling out to the Jews." Lauren Loomer condemned him for daring to criticise the Orange One, on occasion.
Or he may no particular political persuasion at all. After all, Trump's would-be assassin, Thomas Crooks, didn't seems to have views that aligned with either the right or left ends of the political spectrum, being both a registered Republican and having donated to a Democrat fund-raiser. He could just be a nutter with a grudge against humanity.
It has been suggested that many of these attackers have no set agenda before they do it: yes, there are those that have a ranting manifesto, but they are in a minority. They are often angry people wanting revenge on the world.
Then, if they are caught alive, they (often encouraged by lawyers) to settle on *a* reason that will get them at least some sympathy from one group or another. So instead of a "I shot up the school coz I hate everyone," it becomes "I shot up the school coz of the fact they teach about abortion."
So you are saying there is a large upside potential?
It’s becoming ever clearer that Britain’s primary economic problem is penny-pinching households and businesses. Labour have managed to suppress confidence even further since their election. Reeves’ number one priority at the budget should be to boost confidence.
I don't say you're wrong, but so many households known to me can't stretch their income to cover the full week. Spending every penny isn't penny pinching, it's feeling the pinch badly.
That’s always been true of many (even most) households. But it is emphatically not true of many many households. And it is absolutely emphatically true of many businesses that have got into the habit of sweating assets rather than investing in growth.
Our national savings rate is at historically high levels, and private (both household and corporate) debt is the lowest it’s been since the noughties. No wonder government debt is so high.
private (both household and corporate) debt is the lowest it’s been since the noughties
You say that as if you think its a bad thing.
It was excessive private debt that nearly destroyed the economy in 2007-2010.
Many of those individuals and businesses you lament for not having enough debt only survived 2007-2010 by not having too much debt.
Just to address this point from earlier in the thread.
The 2008 financial crisis has a lot to answer for. It did indeed burst what had become a debt bubble - though that debt bubble was very specifically related to excessive lending to American house buyers with no means to repay, and then repackaged into derivatives that banks poured into without any meaningful due diligence. That all led to systemic failure in the banking system, and money supply dried up.
The lesson most countries took from this, and the subsequent Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, was that everyone had borrowed too much and we needed to retrench. Governments, corporations, and households. I say most countries, because the USA took the opposite lesson - informed probably by its own experience in the 30s - and took a Keynesian approach to recovery. The USA recovered better than almost all major economies.
We then had QE for years. This suppressed interest rates, and in theory should have made saving less appealing and encouraged spending. What it encouraged instead was a series of asset bubbles fuelled by cheap finance, and the explosion of PE. But the assets seeing the bubbles were too often unproductive ones like real estate, or made unproductive in the case of equity by cost take-out from the buyers looking to flip at a profit...
That is surely the fault of successive administrations failing to invest sufficiently in economically productive infrastructure ?
The private sector was always going to do what it does. Governments didn't have to limit their spending on investment in the way they did - at a time when they could have still borrowed for the ling term, very cheaply.
Cameron and Osborne again. They were too busy at that time wiith politically performative gestures like creating the OBR, instead.
I'd have a bit more time for Mandelson if he said something like this:
"I knew Jeffrey for x years. We were friends, and I enjoyed his company. I never saw any sign or indication of abuse, and during the trial I felt like a good friend was being subjected to a witch-hunt. After conviction, I stood by him. This was a mistake, and over time I have heard the compelling stories of the many victims, and realise that I, like many others, were taken for a fool."
Yes, that would work. There are plenty of politicians going around saying Lucy Letby is innocent, so believing a convicted crim is the victim of a miscarriage of justice is hardly outlandish. Sir Keir and Mandy should have gone with something like that. Did Sir Keir simply panic?
I'd have a bit more time for Mandelson if he said something like this:
"I knew Jeffrey for x years. We were friends, and I enjoyed his company. I never saw any sign or indication of abuse, and during the trial I felt like a good friend was being subjected to a witch-hunt. After conviction, I stood by him. This was a mistake, and over time I have heard the compelling stories of the many victims, and realise that I, like many others, were taken for a fool."
Yes, that would work. There are plenty of politicians going around saying Lucy Letby is innocent, so believing a convicted crim is the victim of a miscarriage of justice is hardly outlandish. Sir Keir and Mandy should have gone with something like that. Did Sir Keir simply panic?
It also plays the "I was sticking up for a friend" line, which i think many people can sympathise with. How would I react if a good friend was accused of crimes that I didn't believe he or she did? Would I abandon them, or support them?
Epstein pleaded guilty. He did a plea bargain with the US authorities and the criticism at the time and later was that he had got off lightly and been given a lighter sentence than others would have.
Isn't it more likely that all these friends of Epstein simply didn't think that what he did was wrong, that the girls were willing participants or tarts and therefore simply not worth worrying about?
This after all was exactly the views that many had about the girls abused by the grooming gangs in Britain. Just because Epstein and Co were rich and the abuse took place on a nice island or in lovely houses doesn't take away from the fact that the abusive men probably had the same dismissive attitude to the girls they used.
There is certainly that possibility; indeed, it is perhaps more likely than my text.
But look at the way Lucy Connolly pled guilty, but is still seen by many as being a heroine. As I said in my post above, how far would you go to stick up for a good friend? People lie to themselves all the time, and "He can't possibly be guilty, as there's no way I could have been friends with someone like that without realising."
I do think the little paragraph I gave would have placed Mandelson in a better position than he now finds himself in.
Surely the motivation of Lucy Connolly's supporters is similar to that suggested by DeclanF for the friends of Epstein? Rather than suggesting that she couldn't have been guilty of such a crime, they think that her crime was minor and didn't justify the punishment she received.
Comments
wtf
Scottish Nationalism must be the saddest nationalism on the planet. It is entirely centred on an all consuming inferiority complex via a vis England and Englishness, variously symptomised by envy, anger, loathing, fear and arse-puckeringly cringeworthy comments on geeky politics forums
https://bsky.app/profile/helenkennedy.bsky.social/post/3lymazqcqoc2h
He flew all the way to Utah to attend a press conference that was delayed by 8 hours waiting for him, and didn't speak.
https://x.com/stevepowers_/status/1966095026062012853?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
As @Cookie says your obsession with Johnson and the Guardian's stories are mostly baked into Johnson reputation, whilst we have a new Government upto its neck in sleaze and the sacking of the Deputy PM and the US Ambassador in a week together with Trump and US news being the media's obsession
That's just politics
Both the Conservatives and Reform campaigning against the million net immigrants per year that Labour have been bringing in since 2019 may be counterfactual, but it has touched a nerve.
Let’s eke it out for another year or so though please, his humiliation needs to be savoured
Plenty of people out there saying a Mauser 30 calibre is pretty accurate at that range in the hands of plenty of gun owners
He will, of course, lash out
But while Mandy can probably still play Premier League level spin / scheming, SKS is semi-pro non-league player who doesn't seem to good with the dark arts of bollock grabbing off the ball.
I'm sure Trump would say he wasn't happy about it, but he's not going to do anything about it.
There's a converse view of the Rayner/Mandelson scenes; all got over with at once, or at least close together.I can't see the Tory conference being all sweetness and light, but with a bit of luck and a rational Deputy leader campaign Labour could well have it's act back together by the end of the month.
The next major event is the Trump visit, assuming he doesn't take umbrage at Mandelson's departure, and even cancellation by him wouldn't be viewed as a disaster by many here.
If there's not another scandal to devour him first, it could come down to how long Labour MPs put up with being behind (or well behind) Reform in the polls. Plenty of AM/MSP candidates will be looking at all this and getting very angry
Surely UK Labour vote in a female leader next time
* Lord Mandelson told his vetting officer that he had continued his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein for many years and that he deeply regretted doing so. He feels ill treated by Starmer
That statement says everything and nothing because it doesn’t mention what Peter was doing even after Epstein was sentenced and in jail
Almost no-one on here reveres Boris. But there are some - and I think you are one - for whom their hatred of him is so all-consuming that they see any failure to criticise him as reverence - even for things completely unpolitical. I find him an entertaining writer for example. Clearly many do - he made a career out of it. But even that rankles for you, doesn't it - your quick brain is thinking "that Cookie, he finds Boris an entertaining writer, he reveres him and secretly wants him back as PM". But I don't. I agree he was a distinctly sub-optimal PM. I did vote for him, and I don't regret it, because my view was and remains that PM Corbyn would have been far worse. And I think during covid he got a lot wrong, but so did everybody - and I think he got less wrong than most of his counterparts on the continent or in Scotland or Wales (and, as I've said, Starmer at LOTO absolutely did get everything wrong - normally demonstrably so within weeks).
Even terrible people are right sometimes.
It's possible to concede good qualities about politicians you think are very bad for the country. Look, I'll start: Keir Starmer: he's a good looking fella with good hair. Gordon Brown: by all appearances, a decent father and husband. Jeremy Corbyn: I actually find his fondness for allotments and grids admirable. Doesn't mean I'm a fan of any of them. But nor am I under the illusion that these people are the worst people in history or that anyone who sees any positive aspects of them at all must be in love with them.
As we've seen in the last year and a bit, the Conservatives aren't much good at Opposition - being "in Government" is their natural state and Johnson kept them there. He gave them a strong majority and it looked like the Tories would be in power for another decade to add to their first decade.
Someone innocent is going to get hurt in this mess.
There's a new thing going on, as was seen in a baseball game recently. Someone does something minor and is caught in camera: say, taking a baseball off a young girl at a game. Not nice, but almost certainly not the worst behaviour at the game. There's then a massive online hunt to get the name of the person, their address, campaigns against their employers, etc, etc. I'm unconvinced the 'crime' is worthy of the resultant punishments.
SKS and Mandy are chalk and apples when it comes to the business of politics and that same strand of status aspiration I have no doubt means that you do not want to fuck with him without an absolute rock solid case to bring and even then you should be checking it 20x. It sounds like SKS is trying his usual trick of reimagining events to suit him and Mandy (I very much hope) is having none of it.
Starmer is stubborn and has the hide of a rhinoceros, and even less insight. So I wouldn't expect him to step down any time soon. 2028, I think.
Incidentally, I dont think Mandelson will publically turn on Starmer. He is certainly enraged, but too much a Labour loyalist.
That something would happen was predictable, and almost inevitable.
There is a Netflix movie The Circle that revolves around this (albeit with a malign corporate overtone)
It'll be interesting to see whether emails from other male friends of Epstein will now be published and whether any of the men who abused the girls will be named and shamed. Because - up to now (other than Andrew) - those men have managed to avoid any knowledge of let alone accountability for their crimes.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Kill-All-Normies-culture-alt-right/dp/1785355430
It is fantastic and addresses this type of (online) behaviour. Fascinating, if slightly unnerving stuff.
It looks a lot like normalising Russia sending repeated waves of drones into Poland, rather than doing something to prevent or deter it, while weakening Ukraine's defences.
It might just be Mandelson was firmly of the belief that Epstein was innocent, and he was standing by a good friend. Which would be laudable, but goes against what he has recently said. It's also likely that Mandelson knew, or suspected, that Epstein was a bad 'un - especially after the conviction - and was out to get whatever he could.
Either shows terrible political judgement.
All of the reasons that he was a liability in the long term apply to the guy he was appointed to schmooze.
I thought he may do about 3 and a half years as PM, I couldn't ever see him trying to stick out a second term at all when he'd be knocking on the door of 70
Vote shares held up in some places and rose in Newmarket East, probably due to the impact of the campaign being waged by horse racing against the harmonisation of betting duty and remote gaming duty. The Conservatives have been strong in their opposition (though to be fair both Reform and the LDs are also opposed) and have always had strong roots in horse racing.
Reform won the seat, however, as they did the Conservative seat in Walsall but compared to another dire set of Labour numbers, the Conservatives may feel it's not been the worst of weeks for them.
In practice, there may not be one, but rather a coronation of the DL.
Streeting is young enough to keep his powder dry, and would lose anyway being Billy Nomates.
"I knew Jeffrey for x years. We were friends, and I enjoyed his company. I never saw any sign or indication of abuse, and during the trial I felt like a good friend was being subjected to a witch-hunt. After conviction, I stood by him. This was a mistake, and over time I have heard the compelling stories of the many victims, and realise that I, like many others, were taken for a fool."
I wasn't talking or thinking about English wine for a moment (indeed, I have been wondering about trying Nyetimber as a result of comments by you and others on here, and seeing how well it compares to Abbe Buckfast*).
I was talking about Scottish wine or rather the lack thereof, as the wording makes quite clear. No wine, sure, but equally that means no comparison. But why worry when we have single malts?
Sky News asked Starmer back in January 2024 whether knew Mandelson had stayed at Epstein’s townhouse in 2009 - while Epstein was in jail. Mandelson was Labour Business Secretary and Gordon Brown’s Deputy PM. They specifically referenced both the @FT piece and the JP Morgan report
https://x.com/joerichlaw/status/1966061142398177293?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
https://x.com/stevepowers_/status/1966095026062012853?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
On checking re Scottish wines, and ignoring the fruit wine stuff, interestingly there is a research vineyard in Aberdeenshire using high-latitude varieties of grape eg as used in the Baltics.
Nick Fuentes, and his circle, frequently denounced Kirk for "selling out to the Jews." Lauren Loomer condemned him for daring to criticise the Orange One, on occasion.
I'm tech support for various family and friends, including for Windows computer issues, which is kind of odd as my expertise is low - I use Linux at home and while I had a Windows laptop for work that's organisation-managed so I can't tweak any settings there, really. So, when I'm troubleshooting Windows I'm flailing around looking for equivalent settings to those available on Linux, which are often more hidden on Windows
Anyway, current problem. Elderly family member had Windows computer (Win 11) in study that wasn't connecting to any websites. I was able to diagnose the main problem - the ethernet cable I'd run from router at other end of the house to study was not plugged in at the router end
So, this does have to be DNS, right? Is there something I'm missing in Windows to actually make it use set DNS servers? Does it need a reboot or something? Some kind of cache I need to clear if, say, the ISP DNS was returning junk which has been stored? Other diagnostics to run?
I guess ISP/router site restrictions/firewall are also possibilities, but I'd expect an error page more specific than can't find site in those cases? Should note that other devices on the network on Wifi have no issues connecting to any sites. The laptop, taken to the router and put on Wifi still had issues with those sites.
Tbf Sly Stallone might be more effective in either role.
I suspect much of rural East Anglia will now be Ref Con fights (outside the LD blob and Waveney) there's a ward up in Truss old seat in a fortnight (Thetford Castle) I expect Reform to win and Labour to disintegrate - the Ref Con gap will be instructive
As with others, I completely respect Mandelson's political achievements especially in the 80s and 90s when he was instrumental in turning Labour from a party flirting with obscurity to an unparalleled election winning machine. The Labour campaigns of the mid-90s and the GE campaign of 1997 were masterpieces of their time - the Conservatives, by contrast, were like a cyclist with a flat tyre trying to keep up,with a Ferrari.
That was then, however, and we know how Mandelson's time in office worked out (or didn't). His "I'm a fighter, not a quitter" line from 2001 was famously re-purposed by Liz Truss in 2022 (was it the day before she quit?).
I'm sure his advice was and has been useful for Labour and in that capacity he was probably a help to the re-habilitation of Labour under Starmer (the parallels between 2019 and 1983 for Labour were obvious) but to offer him the "reward" of such a significant Ambassadorial role knowing what was publicly (and privately) known about his relationship with Epstein seems to be the height of folly.
Mandelson is entitled to protest his innocence and "guilt by association" is only a crime in politics. The trouble is, Mandelson is politics and iyou have to play by the rules if you want to play the game. Had he remained quietly in the background, nothing of significance beyond the usual speculation would have occurred but re-emerging into the political frontline wasn't a good idea either for him or for Starmer, however much the latter may have felt he "owed" Madelson for his contributions.
The cultural cringe extends across the political spectrum. We are not the same country as the U.S.
And, just to get in my full quota today, this conspiracy theory is better supported than all of the above, by what evidence is out there (not a huge amount).
https://x.com/adamscochran/status/1966152255213895713
At what point, are we going to clue in to the President's stroke?
He is in ailing health, and while duly paying respects to those who lost their lives on 9/11 is barely able to control the right side of his face... (thread)
The strategising eejits (aka Morgan McSweeney etc) probably thought this was a masterstroke in establishing a rapport between Mandy and Don.
Extended and close association with a known convicted felon, who later went on to be unmasked as a major criminal, simply isn't compatible with representing the UK as our ambassador.
Mandelson is perfectly entitled to defend his innocence regarding any criminal entanglement, but the idea that he's been treated unfairly regarding his sacking is utterly ludicrous.
Makes you wonder what use Stalin and later Soviet leaders would have had for the technology.
But they weren't able to defuse this story, or to deal with it effectively once it blew up.
The lack of confidence is a symptom of the problem, not the problem in itself. The problem is a state that seems determined to strangle economic growth, even as it gaslights about wanting to boost it. That causes low confidence. And to boost confidence in the private sector, which is the ultimate source of all long term economic growth, the government needs to stop raising taxes on the productive and enterprising, cut spending on unproductive malingerers and losers and deregulate.
But they're going to jack up taxes further, especially no doubt those taxes (business and payroll) that hurt growth in the long term and regulate more. And they've failed spectacularly to cut spending despite a gigantic majority.
So, barring some miracle or change in the laws of economics, we have at least three more years of stagnation.
I would love to be wrong about this but I'm almost certain.
ETA so qualified loyalty followed by ruthless termination.
An associate the other side of the building took the gun?
I mean, how can you jump off a roof like that whilst in high heels?
....Procedure was followed as required in section 8, subsection 27, paragraph 5.....and therefore I do not understand why there is any issue what so ever over my conduct in this matter....it was an independent process and no further information crossed my desk....
I listened to a think interview with Rory Stewart this morning from 2023. Interesting (LBC: Full Disclosure thread):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zbGxZ_nmnY
And subsequently ran into this from Boris Johnson from 2019 ("2nd Leaders' Debate):
"Something something ... our Party is at 17% in the polls ... something something."
https://youtu.be/RYKumvPpqC8?t=144
Interesting stuff.
But they're going to jack up taxes further, especially no doubt those taxes (business and payroll) that hurt growth in the long term and regulate more. And they've failed spectacularly to cut spending despite a gigantic majority.
So, barring some miracle or change in the laws of economics, we have at least three more years of stagnation.
I would love to be wrong about this but I'm almost certain.
But the way that economic confidence is becoming split on party lines suggests that people's reports of economic confidence have less to do the actual economic state of the nation and more to do with online polarisation.
Isn't it more likely that all these friends of Epstein simply didn't think that what he did was wrong, that the girls were willing participants or tarts and therefore simply not worth worrying about?
This after all was exactly the views that many had about the girls abused by the grooming gangs in Britain. Just because Epstein and Co were rich and the abuse took place on a nice island or in lovely houses doesn't take away from the fact that the abusive men probably had the same dismissive attitude to the girls they used.
Revered, loved and exempt from too much criticism, even when his behaviour and incompetence have been outrageous.
My minicab driver was very chatty and explained how... Rayner knew what she was doing and will go on I'm a Celebrity (but not Strictly). He reckoned there would be a general election next year, because there would be so many defections and/or Starmer would rather lose at a general election than stand down and be replaced by another Labour leader. Oh, and the government would have to go to the IMF soon because of government finances, and Labour will probably introduce a 10% tax on the value of your house. There'd be a Tory/Reform coalition after the election
You heard it here first. Well, second... OK, maybe seventy-sixth...
What happens when we get to the end of 2026 and Labour are still firmly in power? Presumably nothing, everyone will forget their predictions.
https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1966396148555624803
The 2008 financial crisis has a lot to answer for. It did indeed burst what had become a debt bubble - though that debt bubble was very specifically related to excessive lending to American house buyers with no means to repay, and then repackaged into derivatives that banks poured into without any meaningful due diligence. That all led to systemic failure in the banking system, and money supply dried up.
The lesson most countries took from this, and the subsequent Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, was that everyone had borrowed too much and we needed to retrench. Governments, corporations, and households. I say most countries, because the USA took the opposite lesson - informed probably by its own experience in the 30s - and took a Keynesian approach to recovery. The USA recovered better than almost all major economies.
We then had QE for years. This suppressed interest rates, and in theory should have made saving less appealing and encouraged spending. What it encouraged instead was a series of asset bubbles fuelled by cheap finance, and the explosion of PE. But the assets seeing the bubbles were too often unproductive ones like real estate, or made unproductive in the case of equity by cost take-out from the buyers looking to flip at a profit.
Meanwhile households continued to feel the fear and put more and more money away for a rainy day, typically in low yielding unproductive assets. Just like Japan from 1990 onwards. And governments regulated banking capital to such an extent that risk taking almost disappeared from mortgage or business lending.
And the low interest rates combined with risk averse lending meant that inefficient companies could survive as zombies, while more enterprising growth companies struggled to expand. Except, again, in the USA where VC money continued to flow and the corporate world continued to invest.
Then we saw 2 crises in a row, both of which sapped confidence and reinforced the rainy day message: Covid, and the invasion of Ukraine.
The pendulum swings, and always overcorrects. We have been in a state of overcorrection since 2008. I know it’s totally counterintuitive to a generation brought up on the received wisdom that British consumers are spendthrift and over-indebted, and businesses need to protect margins rather than taking risks, but it’s what the comparative data say. If businesses don’t invest and consumers don’t spend (or at least save into productive growth assets) then the economy won’t grow.
Don't we always?
But look at the way Lucy Connolly pled guilty, but is still seen by many as being a heroine. As I said in my post above, how far would you go to stick up for a good friend? People lie to themselves all the time, and "He can't possibly be guilty, as there's no way I could have been friends with someone like that without realising."
I do think the little paragraph I gave would have placed Mandelson in a better position than he now finds himself in.
But they're going to jack up taxes further, especially no doubt those taxes (business and payroll) that hurt growth in the long term and regulate more. And they've failed spectacularly to cut spending despite a gigantic majority.
So, barring some miracle or change in the laws of economics, we have at least three more years of stagnation.
I would love to be wrong about this but I'm almost certain.
ODD THINGS GOING ON WITH FISHING’s FORMATTING. THIS IS MY REPLY
It’s been a structural problem for this country since 2008. Labour may make it worse or better, but look around at our peers and most are in a similar position. The big area where we’re worse is in business investment and productivity growth, and there we lag several countries with much higher taxes and a much larger public sector.
The private sector was always going to do what it does. Governments didn't have to limit their spending on investment in the way they did - at a time when they could have still borrowed for the ling term, very cheaply.
Then, if they are caught alive, they (often encouraged by lawyers) to settle on *a* reason that will get them at least some sympathy from one group or another. So instead of a "I shot up the school coz I hate everyone," it becomes "I shot up the school coz of the fact they teach about abortion."
Still the evasion of blame for that government.