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Bombing Iran bombs with UK voters meanwhile in America… – politicalbetting.com
Bombing Iran bombs with UK voters meanwhile in America… – politicalbetting.com
From what you have seen and heard, do you think it was right or wrong for the US to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities?Right: 22%Wrong: 48%Don't know: 30%yougov.co.uk/topics/inter…
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https://x.com/Kasparov63/status/1937297601453277670
MAGA (and apparently a fair slice if Reform voters) take this sort of whiplash in stride.
Trump went from suggesting "regime change" in Iran to congratulating that same regime and saying "Good bless Iran" in one day.
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1937277701204664404
In light of achieving the objectives of the operation, and in full coordination with President Trump, Israel has agreed to the president’s proposal for a bilateral cease-fire."
F1: ep26 of Undercutters looks at the Red Bull Ring, back to last year's Ver-Nor clash, how the season stands heading into Austria, and quite a lot of F1 news (some of which is actually good).
Podbean: https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-austrian-grand-prix-predictions-and-preview/
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f1-2025-austrian-grand-prix-predictions-and-preview/id1786574257?i=1000714312475
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5pJawDHWT4u86Edgn4WYX5
Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/bcfe213b-55fb-408a-a823-dc6693ee9f78/episodes/4ab77d79-52fb-4e38-8dc1-df0c1e92ca6c/undercutters---f1-podcast-f1-2025-austrian-grand-prix-predictions-and-preview
Transcript: https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/06/f1-2025-austrian-grand-prix-predictions.html
"You put the phone down first."
"No, you put the phone down first..."
Rewatched Terminator 2 last night. Fun movie about AI leading to nuclear war and how the easiest way to kill someone is to dress up like a cop. Can't say its themes resonate today.
https://x.com/Papapishu/status/1936906193735217376
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2002/nov/25/kirstyscott
Stand Leon down...
Still, it’s Trump so people lose their rationality.
Russia's war in Ukraine is more directly impactful to us. And the outcome of the war is one of Russia's main allies is further weakened (having already lost Assad) without any corresponding boost to oil revenue.
With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war!
108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Putin phoning Tehran "You sure you wouldn't like to lob some more drones into Tel Aviv? You can use some of those set for delivery in the next batch, on me..."
Ref 27 (=)
Lab 23 (-1)
Con 17 (=)
LD 16 (+1)
Green 10 (=)
China's rare earth materials dominance isn't just about mining - they're actually a net importer, despite mining more than the rest of the world - it's about materials science and processing technology, which is going to be harder to challenge.
Imagine 1 country dominating the full Semi supply chain including Silicon, wafer, all chemicals, all equipments, fabs, design studio & advanced pkg.
China has that in Rare Earth & ppl are finding out now it is used in everything.
Thread on just how much China controls RE supply chain.
https://x.com/tphuang/status/1931168258322833598
It's not as though either are particularly reliable sources, and it sounds like motivated reasoning on both sides.
Competing claims now about the status of Iran’s HEU. Senator Markwayne Mullin, on the Armed Services Committee, says U.S. intel determined Iran hadn’t moved it from Fordow before the American strike; two Israeli officials told NYT they likely did.
https://x.com/michaeldweiss/status/1937398505611636908
Not to say the rationale for action isn't there, but we're a small country with few resources, little influence and huge debt. Countries like that need to sing small and it doesn't necessarily rule out an 'honest broker' role at some point.
Good morning, everybody.
What is it they have done badly, and what should they have done instead?
As I said, who to believe ?
Also: it's the tendency of politicians to take an optimistic spin, and security officials to take a pessimistic one.
https://x.com/MorningBrew/status/1724511530958360666
On a complete tangent, this story caught my eye:
https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/surrey-council-agrees-buy-oil-31917278
Now, what caught my eye wasn't the story itself but the way it was reported. The "council" aren't spending any money on the painting - £2,500 (or half) is coming from a fund held by Chertsey Museum (run by Runnymede BC) towards the painting.
Superficially, anyone seeing this might think "this council is spending thousands of pounds of public money on some painting, what a waste". Er, no, it's £2,500 from a fund used by the museum to improve its collection.
Now, you could argue there are better works on which the museum could have spent £2,500 - I don't know - but the clickbait nature of the headline promises far more than it delivers.
My other thought is it seems a waste of Councillor time to approve this - the Museum should have the delegated authority to spend its own money.
As a further aside, when the various DLOGEs (or whatever) instigated by Reform sweep through councils like Kent and Derbyshire, they are going to find this kind of heritage in museums, council headquarters buildings and record offices. There will be those who will doubtless argue this kind of heritage has no place in a modern cash-strapped council (it'll be a test of whether Reform's apparent love of British history and nostalgia stands up to reality). The problem is much of the art in council buildings has been donated or bequeathed to the authorities so can it really be sold off? Should it?
You could argue if land and buildings can be sold off to provide capital receipt to maintain services why not sell off the family silver (especially if it's the good stuff)?
Impressive tumbleweed display though, that's another irregular verb, isn't it?
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz: "I have instructed the IDF to continue intensive operations targeting regime assets and terrorist infrastructure in Tehran"
https://x.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1937419217684562223
Yougov recently has been reasonably good for Labour. Yes I know 23% is not reasonably good for an incumbent governing party by any stretch, but it’s all relative. They have 10% Greens of which they can likely squeeze a good 3% in a GE, or as much as 6% if it turns out to be a battle royal with Reform.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/06/23/nigel-farages-robin-hood-tax-is-nothing-more-than-a-gimmick
Is this delay in the ceasefire due to communications problems in the Iranian infrastructure, or do the Iranians not want it ?
Thank you for your attention in this matter.
@PJTheEconomist
Another £30bn on defence. U turn on winter fuel. Rebellion on plans which just slightly slow huge increases in spending on disability benefits.
If spending goes only one way then so, inevitably, will tax. Historic increases already this decade. Looks like a lot more to come.
https://today.yougov.com/topics/international/survey-results/daily/2025/06/23/530e0/3
Ironically, Iran's presidential election was due this week. Is it going ahead?
Katja Bego
@katjabego.bsky.social
Morning of the NATO summit: two key train lines in the Netherlands are down (Amsterdam-Schiphol; The Hague- Rotterdam) due to power cuts caused by “unidentified” fires along the tracks.
Accidents? Maybe. But we see similar “incidents” all over Europe, and no clue of scale.
https://bsky.app/profile/katjabego.bsky.social/post/3lsdkz4cdak2u
What the US/Israel have done is target the known enrichment facilities, basically to stop or slow the final stages of enrichment, they have probably achieved their aims. It is a lot less likely that they have destroyed or secured the HEU itself, and Iran if it still posesses it will likely disperse it in many new sites.
The problem is that Iran no longer needs large scale enrichment facilities they can go slowly and still have enough weapons grade HEU quite soon for a handful of bombs. At which point external attemps at regime change are likely to cease, in the same way that nobody talks about toppling the North Korean regime since they developed the bomb.
In the US while Republicans backed the bombing most US voters didn't overall, perhaps why Trump has now called for peace talks
Labour or Labour led government remains the stromng favourite for 2029.
In a world of 193 nation states, The UK has the sixth largest economy in the world. Britain has internationally respected armed forces, including a significant nuclear arsenal, and it is a major player in NATO. It is a permanent member of the United Nations security council.
In terms of largest government debt, British public debt per capita is well behind Japan, the US, Canada, France, Ireland and Italy and not radically worse than Germany,
In terms of soft power, the English Language is the most widely spoken in the world, British regulations in shipping, insurance, finance, are generally adopted internationally, British pop music is arguably the most listened to across the planet.
Admittedly we have allowed ourselves to be overshadowed by the United States, but objectively the UK is not insignificant. I take your point that we still have convening power, but we also have kinetic power, although we would not choose to use it in the middle east.
Their illusion seems to involve some version of cakeism.
I'd actually be interested in Nick's take on this. While I assume that he's likely also to oppose the legislation, how does he see the alternative ?
But your fundamental point is, I think, sound. That is: getting the centrifuges and not the HEU just delays thing somewhat.
"Election Prediction" https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=N&CON=17&LAB=23&LIB=16&Reform=27&Green=10&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTReform=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2024base
* Mind you, I'd have thought that about the US too
They do, after all, share a border.
Plausibly deniable as having enriched it themselves.