Germany in for a spell of chaotic quasi-coalition non-government? Ideal timing
At least will be led by a Thatcherite who is pro more arms for Ukraine, Merz, not the current social democract chancellor, Scholz, nor the pro Putin far right AfD.
Merz is also tougher on immigration than Scholz just not as hardline on migrants as the AfD
SPD 116 CDU/CSU 211 Greens 98 AfD 142 Left 62 SSW 1
630 seats, so 315ish needed for a majority
SPD+Green+Left = 276 so won't work CDU/CSU + Green = 309 might work CDU/CSU+AfD = 353 so will work, but um... CDU/CSU+SPD = 327, which will work but be hysterical
So there y'go. Musk bought another election. Bad Musk.
Weidel again pushing the line that the CDU/CSU will betray their voters if they deal with the left.
Given that Merz and the CDU and the CSU repeatedly said that he would have nothing to do with the AfD but would form a coalition with SPD or Greens Weidel is saying the opposite of the truth.
SPD 116 CDU/CSU 211 Greens 98 AfD 142 Left 62 SSW 1
630 seats, so 315ish needed for a majority
SPD+Green+Left = 276 so won't work CDU/CSU + Green = 309 might work CDU/CSU+AfD = 353 so will work, but um... CDU/CSU+SPD = 327, which will work but be hysterical
So there y'go. Musk bought another election. Bad Musk.
Projected result for ZDF CDU/CSU 28.5% AfD 20% SPD 16.5% Greens 12% The Left 9% BSW 5% FDP 5%
(via ZDF)
On those numbers CDU/CSU and AfD combined would have a narrow majority but the CDU will not deal with the far right AfD so looks like another grand coalition between the Union and SPD
SPD 116 CDU/CSU 211 Greens 98 AfD 142 Left 62 SSW 1
630 seats, so 315ish needed for a majority
SPD+Green+Left = 276 so won't work CDU/CSU + Green = 309 might work CDU/CSU+AfD = 353 so will work, but um... CDU/CSU+SPD = 327, which will work but be hysterical
So there y'go. Musk bought another election. Bad Musk.
Most of Merkel's governments were with the SPD. It's not a particularly unusual alliance any more.
It all comes down to whether BSW and/ FDP get past 5%. And that is surely within the margin of error of the exit poll.
The exact vote share of the larger parties is of far less significance.
Does mean the AfD will comfortably be the main opposition to the new centrist government.
Shades of Reform's echoes here that they are the real opposition to the Tory and Labour 'uniparty'. Merz will be a more rightwing chancellor than Merkel though
If the ZDF poll is right then I think Union-SPD-FDP isn't a majority so Union-SPD-Green is the only option. So those moronic people who voted FDP to keep the Greens out would have been better off voting CDU.
If the ZDF poll is right then I think Union-SPD-FDP isn't a majority so Union-SPD-Green is the only option. So those moronic people who voted FDP to keep the Greens out would have been better off voting CDU.
If the ZDF poll is right then I think Union-SPD-FDP isn't a majority so Union-SPD-Green is the only option. So those moronic people who voted FDP to keep the Greens out would have been better off voting CDU.
In a PR system you don't vote to keep someone out, you vote for the party you want to win. A quaint idea I know, it may catch on here.
Merz now speaking next to Soder saying 'we have won this election' and CDU and CSU work together well and are ready to take on governmental responsibility
It's been that way for a while. Big acts like Ed Sheeran and Adele (where is she by the way?) masked the decline.
I just haven't heard of these people any more. Which looking at that American thing with the unironic moustache who apparently had the world's biggest hit single last year, doesn't bother me too much.
If the ZDF poll is right then I think Union-SPD-FDP isn't a majority so Union-SPD-Green is the only option. So those moronic people who voted FDP to keep the Greens out would have been better off voting CDU.
In a PR system you don't vote to keep someone out, you vote for the party you want to win. A quaint idea I know, it may catch on here.
Right. But the FDP's whole pitch the last days was "vote FDP to make sure there isn't a Union-Green coalition"
Most of Merkel's governments were with the SPD. It's not a particularly unusual alliance any more.
It all comes down to whether BSW and/ FDP get past 5%. And that is surely within the margin of error of the exit poll.
The exact vote share of the larger parties is of far less significance.
BSW is basically a Gallowayite left party ?
Minus the Islamism.
Not sure what Galloway minus Muslim sectarianism actually amounts to. Although on second thoughts I do. It amounts to what Galloway is all about. Galloway.
It's been that way for a while. Big acts like Ed Sheeran and Adele (where is she by the way?) masked the decline.
I just haven't heard of these people any more. Which looking at that American thing with the unironic moustache who apparently had the world's biggest hit single last year, doesn't bother me too much.
They sound suspiciously like artists that might have been invented by The Fast Show.
If the ZDF poll is right then I think Union-SPD-FDP isn't a majority so Union-SPD-Green is the only option. So those moronic people who voted FDP to keep the Greens out would have been better off voting CDU.
In a PR system you don't vote to keep someone out, you vote for the party you want to win. A quaint idea I know, it may catch on here.
Right. But the FDP's whole pitch the last days was "vote FDP to make sure there isn't a Union-Green coalition"
It's been that way for a while. Big acts like Ed Sheeran and Adele (where is she by the way?) masked the decline.
I just haven't heard of these people any more. Which looking at that American thing with the unironic moustache who apparently had the world's biggest hit single last year, doesn't bother me too much.
Thank fuck the AfD don't look like getting more than 20%. We can just about live with the neo-fascists being supported by only 1 in 5 voters.
And yet the centre left - for so long dominant in Germany - have fallen BEHIND the Far Right
Because this was all being predicted by the polls it seems shrug-worthy. It is not. It is seismic
The Uniparty have won the election.
Yes in UK context it is like a hung parliament with the Tories winning most seats at the next general election, Reform second and Labour third but Kemi then doing a deal with a humiliated Starmer anyway to keep Farage out of power.
Though to be fair the AfD have some far right elements Reform don't yet
Thank fuck the AfD don't look like getting more than 20%. We can just about live with the neo-fascists being supported by only 1 in 5 voters.
And yet the centre left - for so long dominant in Germany - have fallen BEHIND the Far Right
Because this was all being predicted by the polls it seems shrug-worthy. It is not. It is seismic
The Uniparty have won the election.
Yes in UK context it is like a hung parliament with the Tories winning most seats at the next general election, Reform second and Labour third but Kemi then doing a deal with Starmer anyway to keep Farage out of power.
Though to be fair the AfD have some far right elements Reform don't yet
Well reading recent reports on WhatsApp groups Reform might be less right wing than Labour
They have, or now think they have, total power and full control of the entire state - courts, military, congress etc etc.
Bill Kristol quoted John McCaine earlier: 'it's always darkest, before it goes pitch black'
This is a coup. I think we can take it that adverse court orders will simply be ignored. Three questions remain for now. Will congress and the general public start acting against it? What about free speech and free media - who currently appear still free to say what they like - is there such a thing in history as a coup with free media and free speech? Thirdly, what about the military?
@eucopresident I have decided to convene a special European Council on 6 March.
We are living a defining moment for Ukraine and European security.
In my consultations with European leaders, I’ve heard a shared commitment to meet those challenges at EU level: strengthening European Defence and contributing decisively to peace on our continent and long-term security of Ukraine.
I will continue to work together with @vonderleyen and all Member States to be ready to take decisions on 6 March.
He didn’t waste a minute - quite literally 18:01 - head of the European Council calls extraordinary summit of European leaders to discuss Ukraine and defense. EU can’t move without Berlin - incentive for action.
Outgoing Chancellor Scholz calls the result 'a bitter election result for the SPD' while still thanking party workers for their efforts
He was effing useless and will not be missed.
Th SPD will be looking a new leader
Germany the second G7 nation to shift from a left liberal government to a right of centre government in 6 months after the US and both Biden and Scholz were one term heads of government.
Not encouraging for Sir Keir, he will be hoping Albanese can scrape home in Australia and the Liberals and NDP further close the gap in Canada
The 34 years since reunification has (so far?) failed to erase the differences established during 45 years under Soviet rule.
I think "failed to erase the differences" is perhaps the wrong way of looking at it. The way reunification was handled created new divisions all of its own.
The AfD is doubling its vote every five years or so. Ergo they will be the German government by the end of the decade
They would need to overtake the CDU as the main party of the right though as Le Pen's RN have overtaken Les Republicains in France and Meloni's Brothers of Italy have overtaken Forza Italia in Italy which is unlikely while the CDU are led by the more conservative Merz. SPD probably already squeezed down to near their core
The AfD is doubling its vote every five years or so. Ergo they will be the German government by the end of the decade
They would need to overtake the CDU as the main party of the right though which is unlikely while they are led by the more conservative Merz. SPD probably already squeezed down to near their core
I was half joking. But only half
I do believe most western governments will end up with versions of Trump/Milei/Bukele, albeit adapted to local circumstances
@eucopresident I have decided to convene a special European Council on 6 March.
We are living a defining moment for Ukraine and European security.
In my consultations with European leaders, I’ve heard a shared commitment to meet those challenges at EU level: strengthening European Defence and contributing decisively to peace on our continent and long-term security of Ukraine.
I will continue to work together with @vonderleyen and all Member States to be ready to take decisions on 6 March.
He didn’t waste a minute - quite literally 18:01 - head of the European Council calls extraordinary summit of European leaders to discuss Ukraine and defense. EU can’t move without Berlin - incentive for action.
Comments
Linke concentrated on cost of living
Leader clicked better with voters
Merz is also tougher on immigration than Scholz just not as hardline on migrants as the AfD
SPD 116
CDU/CSU 211
Greens 98
AfD 142
Left 62
SSW 1
630 seats, so 315ish needed for a majority
SPD+Green+Left = 276 so won't work
CDU/CSU + Green = 309 might work
CDU/CSU+AfD = 353 so will work, but um...
CDU/CSU+SPD = 327, which will work but be hysterical
So there y'go. Musk bought another election. Bad Musk.
Source https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CoS6ifYUFeA
Manually typed, so apologies for any errors
Right of centre: 53%
Left of centre: 44%
I think we may have seen this before in Germany.
CDU/CSU 28.5%
AfD 20%
SPD 16.5%
Greens 12%
The Left 9%
BSW 5%
FDP 5%
(via ZDF)
Will almost certainly be the former
It all comes down to whether BSW and/ FDP get past 5%. And that is surely within the margin of error of the exit poll.
The exact vote share of the larger parties is of far less significance.
Aaron Rupar
@atrupar
Hegseth says firing of top military lawyers was about making sure "they don't exist to be roadblocks to anything that happens."
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1893676454673522785
Shades of Reform's echoes here that they are the real opposition to the Tory and Labour 'uniparty'. Merz will be a more rightwing chancellor than Merkel though
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/bundestagswahl/ergebnisse
Not expecting it to start lighting up much this side of 7pm GMT though.
So let's see if actual results are in line with the exits, and how close the FDP and BSW are to the 5%.
Once again they told him to fuck off
Labour will suffer the same in ‘28
So those moronic people who voted FDP to keep the Greens out would have been better off voting CDU.
https://koha.mk/en/ushtria-turke-mund-te-luaje-rol-kyc-ne-sigurine-e-evropes/
We can just about live with the neo-fascists being supported by only 1 in 5 voters.
I just haven't heard of these people any more. Which looking at that American thing with the unironic moustache who apparently had the world's biggest hit single last year, doesn't bother me too much.
They have, or now think they have, total power and full control of the entire state - courts, military, congress etc etc.
Bill Kristol quoted John McCaine earlier: 'it's always darkest, before it goes pitch black'
AfD + BSW+Linke is 33%.
So a third of Germans are voting for the extremes.
Politically something is going wrong.
Because this was all being predicted by the polls it seems shrug-worthy. It is not. It is seismic
They could be polling anywhere between 4.74 to 4.99
5.0%
And a combined vote total of 45% resulting in an absolute majority of seats ain't PR as far as I'm concerned.
But still better than FPTP, mind!
Th SPD will be looking a new leader
Though to be fair the AfD have some far right elements Reform don't yet
20.0% is between 19.9500% and 20.0499%
The 34 years since reunification has (so far?) failed to erase the differences established during 45 years under Soviet rule.
I have decided to convene a special European Council on 6 March.
We are living a defining moment for Ukraine and European security.
In my consultations with European leaders, I’ve heard a shared commitment to meet those challenges at EU level: strengthening European Defence and contributing decisively to peace on our continent and long-term security of Ukraine.
I will continue to work together with
@vonderleyen
and all Member States to be ready to take decisions on 6 March.
#EUCO
https://x.com/eucopresident/status/1893707647565881651
@mariatad
He didn’t waste a minute - quite literally 18:01 - head of the European Council calls extraordinary summit of European leaders to discuss Ukraine and defense. EU can’t move without Berlin - incentive for action.
https://x.com/mariatad/status/1893717845692846443
The DDR no longer votes Communist and now votes right wing.
Big change.
Not encouraging for Sir Keir, he will be hoping Albanese can scrape home in Australia and the Liberals and NDP further close the gap in Canada
Even Israel has a 3.25% threshold I think - many PR countries have one.
If you want pure PR, it's the Netherlands.
I do believe most western governments will end up with versions of Trump/Milei/Bukele, albeit adapted to local circumstances
FDP 4.9
BSW 4.8