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PB Predictions Competition 2025 – The Entries – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,155
    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is purging the military top brass to replace them with 'more compliant' individuals.

    I am curious about the motivation of any such individuals. I can see in the very short term career advancement, but in the next 5 or 10 years, unless the republic is overthrown and the insane clown and his posse remain in charge it's not going to end well for them

    How many of Hitler's top generals did well out of it...?

    Changing Joint Chiefs around the start of a presidential term isn’t, in itself, all that unusual.
    Which is not something you can say about the simultaneous dismissal of three Judge Advocates General.
    @maxkennerly.bsky.social‬

    Just look at these paragraphs from the AP story.

    Hegseth called Brown unqualified solely because he's Black. Then they fired him... and replaced him with a white guy so indisputably unqualified that he requires a Presidential waiver.

    This is what "merit" means to them.

    https://bsky.app/profile/maxkennerly.bsky.social/post/3liq7jc73ac2y
    CIA and special ops… he might be eminently qualified for what Trump might intend.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,665

    Racism, sexism, homophobia will all become very apparent soon, sadly. The rights of anyone not white and straight will slowly be reduced - as has already become the case for women.

    That's what the illiberals want.

    The big risk is that it descends into violence

    I have seen a few posts suggesting that the correct way to deal with Nazi salutes is to kick ass, Blues Brothers stylee, but of course in Murica the Nazis have guns
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,373

    kamski said:

    nico67 said:

    Sky News have a good article about those minerals .

    https://news.sky.com/story/unclear-whether-ukraine-us-rare-earth-saga-is-a-masterstroke-or-colonial-appropriation-13311930

    How much blowback would there be in Europe if the US cut off Star Link ?


    it's not altogether clear that any of the critical mineral deposits in Ukraine are of world-changing significance. It's certainly true that Ukraine has large proven resources of lithium - around 500,000 tonnes, more than any other country in Europe.However, this is small beer in comparison with the 1.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves in the US. Indeed, look at the other prospective lithium resources that sit underneath America and they come to a whopping 19 million tonnes, more than the country will ever need for its electric vehicle fleet.


    So maybe it's more about denying Ukraine’s natural resources to Europe (which would suit the US, Russia and China) than
    claiming them for America.
    Nah. It’s about money and who gets to exploit the minerals. Contracts will go to friends of Trump who will keep the “repayments” of US government support for Ukraine

    Like Iraq.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,988
    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Nevertheless, he is right to question the wisdom of the desperate need to continue this war without US support, when the US was the driving force behind our participation in it.

    Dickriding the US wasn't the sole motivation. I am sure Johnson got swept along, basking in the reflected glory of the martial euphoria when it looked like it might be an uncomplicated victory without any politically inconvenient mangled corpses. Indeed, the sheer density and quality of the memes coming from the front in February and March 2022 gave every indication that might be the case.

    The Western governments just got sucked in as it progressed, or rather didn't progress, and Z was stridently begging for the next thing that would make all the difference and break the deadlock. Leopards, then Patriot, then HIMARS, then F-16s. There was never any articulation of what victory might look like or any strategy of how they'd get there. It was just keep sending the money and weapons, hoping for a Russian collapse that never came.
    Yet, viewed very cold-bloodedly, Western aid to Ukraine has cost Russia about 10,000 armoured vehicles, 800,000 casualties, destroyed its best military units, and exacerbated its already severe demographic problems.

    Where is the downside for us, in any of that?
    It probably wasn't the very best way to use 10bn quid of taxpayers' money. They could actually done something that made the country better. Not much with 10bn, I grant you, but something.
    That works out at less than £50 per person per year as our contribution to destroying Russia's military.

    Its difficult to think of a more effective piece of government spending.
    It is incredibly good value for money - viewed in terms of cold realpolitik. Russia has proved itself relentlessly hostile towards our interests.
    Well, they are now apparently so hostile and capable that we have to double defence spending or they'll kill us all so it clearly hasn't worked.
    Once the USA turned its back on NATO, increased defence spending became an inevitability.

    Better to be increasing it, when Russia is down 800,000 men, and 10,000 armoured vehicles, than when it isn't.
    You seem to think it’s the UK’s responsibility to step into America’s shoes in Europe.
    Was it not, pre-1945, always a cornerstone of British foreign policy, that no one power should become dominant in Europe?
    Do you think there is any risk that Russia would conquer the EU if we didn’t stop it?
    I think it's a certainty he'd go for the Baltics
    and/or Finland. Kaliningrad is an exposed exclave. Basically Putin wants the Warsaw Pact back. Here's an article wot I wrote: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/05/02/why-ukraine-was-particularly-vulnerable/
    The Baltics certainly, Finland less so.

    He wants to be able to control the gap between the carpathians and the Baltic Sea.

    It’s all about protecting the heartland.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,373
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is purging the military top brass to replace them with 'more compliant' individuals.

    I am curious about the motivation of any such individuals. I can see in the very short term career advancement, but in the next 5 or 10 years, unless the republic is overthrown and the insane clown and his posse remain in charge it's not going to end well for them

    How many of Hitler's top generals did well out of it...?

    Changing Joint Chiefs around the start of a presidential term isn’t, in itself, all that unusual.
    Which is not something you can say about the simultaneous dismissal of three Judge Advocates General.
    @maxkennerly.bsky.social‬

    Just look at these paragraphs from the AP story.

    Hegseth called Brown unqualified solely because he's Black. Then they fired him... and replaced him with a white guy so indisputably unqualified that he requires a Presidential waiver.

    This is what "merit" means to them.

    https://bsky.app/profile/maxkennerly.bsky.social/post/3liq7jc73ac2y
    CIA and special ops… he might be eminently qualified for what Trump might intend.
    I doubt Trump chose him. It is what the people riding in on Trump's coattails intend.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,155
    kamski said:

    DougSeal said:

    Anyone got any tips for the German election? Seat totals etc?

    A CSU/CSU plurality seems a safe bet, as does the complete loss of FDP and fall in SPD support. The need to exclude the AFD probably points to a CDU-SPD coalition in the end, though a majority might be cobbled together with some of the small parties. The problem is essentially that if a CDU-SPD government is perceived to fail, the AFD will present themselves as the only substantial alternative. Germany doesn't usually do minority governments, which otherwise might be the best bet for the CDU/CSU.
    Watch out for the neo-nazi rampers - Musk, Putin, WilliamGlenn - subtracting the CSU total from the CDU/CSU total to make it look like the AfD came closer to winning.

    For those not familiar with the situation - the CSU is only in Bavaria, the CDU everywhere except Bavaria. They are 2 parties, but have a joint manifesto for the federal elections, and a joint Chancellor-candidate. The closest UK equivalent is the Scottish Green Party and English + Welsh Green Party being 2 parties - but you probably wouldn't separate the Scottish Green vote total from the English + Welsh Green vote total for your headline election results. Except of course Bavaria is a lot bigger than Scotland (13.4 million vs 5.4 million), and CDU/CSU are a lot bigger than the Green Parties of Britain.

    There's very little chance of a minority government for various reasons. Very likely Union+SPD, or if they don't have a majority Union+SPD+Greens. Small chance of Union+Greens if they have a majority. Very little chance of anything else.

    Anyone hoping for any significant rapid changes in German foreign policy are likely to be disappointed, though Merz may provide Taurus missiles once Chancellor (which might take a while), if that is even still relevant by then. Union+Greens would be the most likely option to offer more weapons to Ukraine.
    Merz, FWIW, has been much more outspoken about supporting Ukraine than has the feeble Scholz. Is that not likely to lead to some change ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,155

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is purging the military top brass to replace them with 'more compliant' individuals.

    I am curious about the motivation of any such individuals. I can see in the very short term career advancement, but in the next 5 or 10 years, unless the republic is overthrown and the insane clown and his posse remain in charge it's not going to end well for them

    How many of Hitler's top generals did well out of it...?

    Changing Joint Chiefs around the start of a presidential term isn’t, in itself, all that unusual.
    Which is not something you can say about the simultaneous dismissal of three Judge Advocates General.
    @maxkennerly.bsky.social‬

    Just look at these paragraphs from the AP story.

    Hegseth called Brown unqualified solely because he's Black. Then they fired him... and replaced him with a white guy so indisputably unqualified that he requires a Presidential waiver.

    This is what "merit" means to them.

    https://bsky.app/profile/maxkennerly.bsky.social/post/3liq7jc73ac2y
    CIA and special ops… he might be eminently qualified for what Trump might intend.
    I doubt Trump chose him. It is what the people riding in on Trump's coattails intend.
    Perhaps, but Trump certainly knows him.
    .. Last year, at the Conservative Political Action Conference, Trump recalled first meeting Gen Caine in Iraq. "He looked better than any movie actor you could get," Trump told the audience….
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,177
    DecrepiterJohnL asked: "Is Trump still charging the Secret Service for accommodation at his own resorts?"

    I believe so. And those trips are incredibly expensive, each one costing millions of dollars.

    (The Secret Service loved it when George W. Bush stayed at his home near Crawford, Texas, as it made their jobs far easier.)
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,836

    kamski said:

    nico67 said:

    Sky News have a good article about those minerals .

    https://news.sky.com/story/unclear-whether-ukraine-us-rare-earth-saga-is-a-masterstroke-or-colonial-appropriation-13311930

    How much blowback would there be in Europe if the US cut off Star Link ?


    it's not altogether clear that any of the critical mineral deposits in Ukraine are of world-changing significance. It's certainly true that Ukraine has large proven resources of lithium - around 500,000 tonnes, more than any other country in Europe.However, this is small beer in comparison with the 1.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves in the US. Indeed, look at the other prospective lithium resources that sit underneath America and they come to a whopping 19 million tonnes, more than the country will ever need for its electric vehicle fleet.


    So maybe it's more about denying Ukraine’s natural resources to Europe (which would suit the US, Russia and China) than
    claiming them for America.
    Nah. It’s about money and who gets to exploit the minerals. Contracts will go to friends of Trump who will keep the “repayments” of US government support for Ukraine

    Maybe, but there's a way this favours Putin too. How committed are Western European governments going to be to defending Trump's mineral deposits?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,085

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is purging the military top brass to replace them with 'more compliant' individuals.

    I am curious about the motivation of any such individuals. I can see in the very short term career advancement, but in the next 5 or 10 years, unless the republic is overthrown and the insane clown and his posse remain in charge it's not going to end well for them

    How many of Hitler's top generals did well out of it...?

    Changing Joint Chiefs around the start of a presidential term isn’t, in itself, all that unusual.
    Which is not something you can say about the simultaneous dismissal of three Judge Advocates General.
    @maxkennerly.bsky.social‬

    Just look at these paragraphs from the AP story.

    Hegseth called Brown unqualified solely because he's Black. Then they fired him... and replaced him with a white guy so indisputably unqualified that he requires a Presidential waiver.

    This is what "merit" means to them.

    https://bsky.app/profile/maxkennerly.bsky.social/post/3liq7jc73ac2y
    Racism, sexism, homophobia will all become very apparent soon, sadly. The rights of anyone not white and straight will slowly be reduced - as has already become the case for women.

    That's what the illiberals want.
    The generals would not have been fired, had they been fervent admirers of Trump; expressed support for slavey; claimed that the 2020 election was stolen etc.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,505
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    He's very critical of Russia and rather sympathetic to Zelensky in the interview, but his bottom line is (as mine is) what is the UK's interest in Ukraine?

    The same as our interest in Belgium when fascists invaded.

    It is in our own self interest that Putin loses, badly, and is seen to lose on the World stage.
    I think you're confusing your World Wars.
    Yes WW2 was the one where Poland started it by provoking Germany.

    (Is it Saturday already?)
    Germany and Russia.
    You'd have thought they'd have more sense.
    Yes, though some blame must go to the British and French for provocatively allying themselves with the Poles. What choice did it leave Hitler and Stalin?
    There is the question of whether Hitler would have been allowed to bank his gains if he had stopped after the Anschluss with Austria and Czechoslovakia.

    And whether Hitler could have been quickly defeated if France, with its larger army, had gone into Poland.

    Both questions have clear parallels with Russia/Ukraine.
    The answer is yes. Had Hitler been satisfied with the Sudetenland, no one would have intervened. But, the Nazis' economy was heading for bankruptcy, by that point. Hitler needed war.

    And, the answer to the second is a partial yes. There was no way of sending troops to Poland, but an invasion of SW Germany was quite feasible. Unfortunately, the Allied Supreme Commander was an incompetent, who thought that radios were evil.
    The actual history is that the French did, but then withdrew when things began to look tricky
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,127

    Even England can't lose from this position now..😏

    Why did you have to post that! :rage:
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,233
    Did anyone listen to Question Time this week?

    A somewhat interesting panel:

    On the panel are: former chief of the defence staff General Sir Nick Carter; Lesia Vasylenko, a Ukrainian MP; from the UK government, cabinet office minister Nick Thomas-Symonds MP; Conservative Sir Ben Wallace, who spent five years as secretary of state for defence; and a Trump campaign adviser, Jan Halper-Hayes.

    Nick Carter is the one in charge when the army's armour was reduced in around 2020. One of the things he comments on is "not enough tanks". :wink:

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,988
    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is purging the military top brass to replace them with 'more compliant' individuals.

    I am curious about the motivation of any such individuals. I can see in the very short term career advancement, but in the next 5 or 10 years, unless the republic is overthrown and the insane clown and his posse remain in charge it's not going to end well for them

    How many of Hitler's top generals did well out of it...?

    They get fired if they don’t take the job.

    And the usual route of a well paid job in the defence industry won’t be available if Trump blackspots them.

    I like to think some at least would go down in honour, but it will be interesting to watch
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,698
    Ffs Everton.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 391
    boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    FF43 said:

    When the establishment reasserts itself in America, as it will eventually do, will they attempt to undo the Trump damage or will the end state just a be a continuation of America's reduced state?

    Trump intends to destroy enough of the state that it can never be reassembled in its current form

    EDIT: When I say Trump, I don't mean the man himself. I don't think he understands the things that are being done in his name. I mean the guys behind the curtain.
    That's precisely the point. It's Trump's Cultural Revolution. The whole point is to smash the old ways in order to further his cult of personality and make it impossible to go back to the old ways.

    It worked short term for Mao too, but 20 years later it was full on capitalism for China.

    I wonder who will be Trump's Deng?
    Surely Melania is Trump’s Wendy Deng, exotic foreign third wife marrying rich old right winger?

    I heard that Melania has been given some high paying project by Amazon since the election. It’s very sad that talented tv producers such as Melania don’t get their skills and abilities noticed until their vengeful and venal husbands get elected as President. Glad that wrong is righted now.

    Edit, apparently they have paid Melania $40m for the privilege of making a documentary about her. Money well,spent IMhO.
    If you advertise yourself as being for sale, how can it be a problem with being bought.

    Musk and Trump in the Oval Office is interesting to watch. Is Musk thinking, I've bought this guy. Or is Trump thinking, he's my bitch now. Perhaps both are true.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,988
    kamski said:

    DougSeal said:

    Anyone got any tips for the German election? Seat totals etc?

    A CSU/CSU plurality seems a safe bet, as does the complete loss of FDP and fall in SPD support. The need to exclude the AFD probably points to a CDU-SPD coalition in the end, though a majority might be cobbled together with some of the small parties. The problem is essentially that if a CDU-SPD government is perceived to fail, the AFD will present themselves as the only substantial alternative. Germany doesn't usually do minority governments, which otherwise might be the best bet for the CDU/CSU.
    Watch out for the neo-nazi rampers - Musk, Putin, WilliamGlenn - subtracting the CSU total from the CDU/CSU total to make it look like the AfD came closer to winning.

    For those not familiar with the situation - the CSU is only in Bavaria, the CDU everywhere except Bavaria. They are 2 parties, but have a joint manifesto for the federal elections, and a joint Chancellor-candidate. The closest UK equivalent is the Scottish Green Party and English + Welsh Green Party being 2 parties - but you probably wouldn't separate the Scottish Green vote total from the English + Welsh Green vote total for your headline election results. Except of course Bavaria is a lot bigger than Scotland (13.4 million vs 5.4 million), and CDU/CSU are a lot bigger than the Green Parties of Britain.

    There's very little chance of a minority government for various reasons. Very likely Union+SPD, or if they don't have a majority Union+SPD+Greens. Small chance of Union+Greens if they have a majority. Very little chance of anything else.

    Anyone hoping for any significant rapid changes in German foreign policy are likely to be disappointed, though Merz may provide Taurus missiles once Chancellor (which might take a while), if that is even still relevant by then. Union+Greens would be the most likely option to offer more
    weapons to Ukraine.
    I thought the CSU and Greens were refusing to partner?

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,231

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is purging the military top brass to replace them with 'more compliant' individuals.

    I am curious about the motivation of any such individuals. I can see in the very short term career advancement, but in the next 5 or 10 years, unless the republic is overthrown and the insane clown and his posse remain in charge it's not going to end well for them

    How many of Hitler's top generals did well out of it...?

    They get fired if they don’t take the job.

    And the usual route of a well paid job in the defence industry won’t be available if Trump blackspots them.

    I like to think some at least would go down in honour, but it will be interesting to watch
    Putting the "right" generals in place is a key part of "unless the republic is overthrown and the insane clown and his posse remain in charge"

    The top military spot has been taken by a retired three star general - against precedence (normally is someone who has at least been the top chief in one of the arms of military). Trump came across him because of something to do with Iraq and a proposal under Trump 1.0 to clean things up faster. Trump claims the guy used to go around in a MAGA cap. This is denied by the military.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,648
    edited 2:22PM
    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    DougSeal said:

    Anyone got any tips for the German election? Seat totals etc?

    A CSU/CSU plurality seems a safe bet, as does the complete loss of FDP and fall in SPD support. The need to exclude the AFD probably points to a CDU-SPD coalition in the end, though a majority might be cobbled together with some of the small parties. The problem is essentially that if a CDU-SPD government is perceived to fail, the AFD will present themselves as the only substantial alternative. Germany doesn't usually do minority governments, which otherwise might be the best bet for the CDU/CSU.
    Watch out for the neo-nazi rampers - Musk, Putin, WilliamGlenn - subtracting the CSU total from the CDU/CSU total to make it look like the AfD came closer to winning.

    For those not familiar with the situation - the CSU is only in Bavaria, the CDU everywhere except Bavaria. They are 2 parties, but have a joint manifesto for the federal elections, and a joint Chancellor-candidate. The closest UK equivalent is the Scottish Green Party and English + Welsh Green Party being 2 parties - but you probably wouldn't separate the Scottish Green vote total from the English + Welsh Green vote total for your headline election results. Except of course Bavaria is a lot bigger than Scotland (13.4 million vs 5.4 million), and CDU/CSU are a lot bigger than the Green Parties of Britain.

    There's very little chance of a minority government for various reasons. Very likely Union+SPD, or if they don't have a majority Union+SPD+Greens. Small chance of Union+Greens if they have a majority. Very little chance of anything else.

    Anyone hoping for any significant rapid changes in German foreign policy are likely to be disappointed, though Merz may provide Taurus missiles once Chancellor (which might take a while), if that is even still relevant by then. Union+Greens would be the most likely option to offer more weapons to Ukraine.
    Merz, FWIW, has been much more outspoken about supporting Ukraine than has the feeble Scholz. Is that not likely to lead to some change ?
    A Merz win tomorrow will be a big shift in Germany. As well as being a hawk on Putin and a proponent of higher defence spending he is also an economic neoliberal and an advocate of privatisation and deregulation and cutting bureaucracy while also taking a harder line on immigration (in some respects like Trump and Musk there) and wants to privatise some social welfare schemes. In the past he even opposed the minimum wage and unfair dismissal laws and is a conservative Roman Catholic in his private life.

    Merz would likely be the most rightwing German Chancellor since WW2

    https://unherd.com/2025/02/will-merz-sell-germany-to-blackrock/
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,988

    kamski said:

    nico67 said:

    Sky News have a good article about those minerals .

    https://news.sky.com/story/unclear-whether-ukraine-us-rare-earth-saga-is-a-masterstroke-or-colonial-appropriation-13311930

    How much blowback would there be in Europe if the US cut off Star Link ?


    it's not altogether clear that any of the critical mineral deposits in Ukraine are of world-changing significance. It's certainly true that Ukraine has large proven resources of lithium - around 500,000 tonnes, more than any other country in Europe.However, this is small beer in comparison with the 1.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves in the US. Indeed, look at the other prospective lithium resources that sit underneath America and they come to a whopping 19 million tonnes, more than the country will ever need for its electric vehicle fleet.


    So maybe it's more about denying Ukraine’s natural resources to Europe (which would suit the US, Russia and China) than
    claiming them for America.
    Nah. It’s about money and who gets to exploit the minerals. Contracts will go to friends of Trump who will keep the “repayments” of US government support for Ukraine

    Like Iraq.
    Very different

    Contracts in Iraq went to big global oil companies, a number of whom are US (but usually public companies)

    In Ukraine’s case it will be going to the likes of Trump Mineral Corp, Musk Exploitation and Hesgeth Mining. Those companies are likely to sub-contract the operations to more experienced miners.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,231
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is purging the military top brass to replace them with 'more compliant' individuals.

    I am curious about the motivation of any such individuals. I can see in the very short term career advancement, but in the next 5 or 10 years, unless the republic is overthrown and the insane clown and his posse remain in charge it's not going to end well for them

    How many of Hitler's top generals did well out of it...?

    Changing Joint Chiefs around the start of a presidential term isn’t, in itself, all that unusual.
    Which is not something you can say about the simultaneous dismissal of three Judge Advocates General.
    @maxkennerly.bsky.social‬

    Just look at these paragraphs from the AP story.

    Hegseth called Brown unqualified solely because he's Black. Then they fired him... and replaced him with a white guy so indisputably unqualified that he requires a Presidential waiver.

    This is what "merit" means to them.

    https://bsky.app/profile/maxkennerly.bsky.social/post/3liq7jc73ac2y
    CIA and special ops… he might be eminently qualified for what Trump might intend.
    I doubt Trump chose him. It is what the people riding in on Trump's coattails intend.
    Perhaps, but Trump certainly knows him.
    .. Last year, at the Conservative Political Action Conference, Trump recalled first meeting Gen Caine in Iraq. "He looked better than any movie actor you could get," Trump told the audience….
    Classic Trump: are they loyal and do they look good on TV?

    The whole thing is hard right authoritarian take-over live on reality TV.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,233
    Strange terminology from the BBC:

    Bali scooter crash with lorry was 'like a horror movie'

    A North Lanarkshire woman who nearly died in a freak accident in Bali has returned to the Indonesian island just seven months after the crash.

    Charlene Morrissey, from Airdrie, was on her way to a camping trip in a remote area near Mount Agung in July when her scooter collided with an HGV.

    The 34-year-old's arm got trapped inside the truck wheel and was "completely crushed".


    It's quite a story, but I don't get "her scooter collided" or "freak accident".

    She and/or the lorry driver chose to drive too close together, and she came of worse. Just what happens every day, everywhere - even here. There's been a meme for years about "self-driving motor vehicles", where collisions have nothing whatsoever to do with the driver.

    That's a battle for accurate language still being fought.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,904
    Zelensky should offer President Xi a deal.
    Support Ukraine and dump Putin and you can have the minerals deal I refused Trump.

    The Art of the Deal.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,922

    kamski said:

    nico67 said:

    Sky News have a good article about those minerals .

    https://news.sky.com/story/unclear-whether-ukraine-us-rare-earth-saga-is-a-masterstroke-or-colonial-appropriation-13311930

    How much blowback would there be in Europe if the US cut off Star Link ?


    it's not altogether clear that any of the critical mineral deposits in Ukraine are of world-changing significance. It's certainly true that Ukraine has large proven resources of lithium - around 500,000 tonnes, more than any other country in Europe.However, this is small beer in comparison with the 1.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves in the US. Indeed, look at the other prospective lithium resources that sit underneath America and they come to a whopping 19 million tonnes, more than the country will ever need for its electric vehicle fleet.


    So maybe it's more about denying Ukraine’s natural resources to Europe (which would suit the US, Russia and China) than
    claiming them for America.
    Nah. It’s about money and who gets to exploit the minerals. Contracts will go to friends of Trump who will keep the “repayments” of US government support for Ukraine

    Like Iraq.
    Very different

    Contracts in Iraq went to big global oil companies, a number of whom are US (but usually public companies)

    In Ukraine’s case it will be going to the likes of Trump Mineral Corp, Musk Exploitation and Hesgeth Mining. Those companies are likely to sub-contract the operations to more experienced miners.
    One does wonder how long it will take the American public to twig and ask “hang on, I thought the minerals were to pay back the US taxpayer but it’s all going to private companies who pay minimal taxes?

    Will the gaslighting continue to work or will they wake up?

    However, maybe the Europeans and Ukrainians, if providing the security in Ukraine, will do their own bit of extortion “nice mining business you have there Trump mining co, would be awful if something happened to it.”
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,957

    With all the talk of what percentage of GDP should be spent on defence why not extend that to welfare and pensions.

    Set a maximum for what the country can afford to give to non-workers and then if the number of claimants increase the amount individuals receive is proportionally reduced.

    In would certainly help reduce this sort of madness:

    Half of claims for Britain’s main benefit will be for poor health by the end of the parliamentary term, with the cost of payments for sickness topping £100 billion a year for the first time.

    A post-Covid surge in claims will become permanent as Britain’s health declines, with costs now on course to double on pre-pandemic levels, the spending watchdog has warned.

    The soaring cost of ill health benefits is a key reason why Britain is paying more tax without getting better public services, according to experts who have urged the government to get a grip on the problem.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/uk-benefits-bill-half-of-claims-will-be-for-sickness-by-2029-2g9lm32wz

    Time for Vitality on the NHS - rewards for actual exercise done. Not just cheap gym membership.

    When Prudential created the scheme, it saved a fortune in claims on the private healthcare it was linked to.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,988
    Trump either has a delicate sense of irony or he’s completely lacking in selfawareness…

    He’s just criticised Zelensky for being a “theatre kid” who has “started to believe he’s the character he’s playing”
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,742

    kamski said:

    nico67 said:

    Sky News have a good article about those minerals .

    https://news.sky.com/story/unclear-whether-ukraine-us-rare-earth-saga-is-a-masterstroke-or-colonial-appropriation-13311930

    How much blowback would there be in Europe if the US cut off Star Link ?


    it's not altogether clear that any of the critical mineral deposits in Ukraine are of world-changing significance. It's certainly true that Ukraine has large proven resources of lithium - around 500,000 tonnes, more than any other country in Europe.However, this is small beer in comparison with the 1.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves in the US. Indeed, look at the other prospective lithium resources that sit underneath America and they come to a whopping 19 million tonnes, more than the country will ever need for its electric vehicle fleet.


    So maybe it's more about denying Ukraine’s natural resources to Europe (which would suit the US, Russia and China) than
    claiming them for America.
    Nah. It’s about money and who gets to exploit the minerals. Contracts will go to friends of Trump who will keep the “repayments” of US government support for Ukraine

    Like Iraq.
    Very different

    Contracts in Iraq went to big global oil companies, a number of whom are US (but usually public companies)

    In Ukraine’s case it will be going to the likes of Trump Mineral Corp, Musk Exploitation and Hesgeth Mining. Those companies are likely to sub-contract the operations to more experienced miners.
    There were more contracts than just oil. Haliburton is the oft cited winner from Iraq and is still winning there.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,922
    Barnesian said:

    Zelensky should offer President Xi a deal.
    Support Ukraine and dump Putin and you can have the minerals deal I refused Trump.

    The Art of the Deal.

    Yup, and 100,000 Chinese troops to provide security on the Ukraine border. Would just love to see the Pantone shade that Trump’s face would turn.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,505
    CatMan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is purging the military top brass to replace them with 'more compliant' individuals.

    I am curious about the motivation of any such individuals. I can see in the very short term career advancement, but in the next 5 or 10 years, unless the republic is overthrown and the insane clown and his posse remain in charge it's not going to end well for them

    How many of Hitler's top generals did well out of it...?

    Changing Joint Chiefs around the start of a presidential term isn’t, in itself, all that unusual.
    Which is not something you can say about the simultaneous dismissal of three Judge Advocates General.
    @maxkennerly.bsky.social‬

    Just look at these paragraphs from the AP story.

    Hegseth called Brown unqualified solely because he's Black. Then they fired him... and replaced him with a white guy so indisputably unqualified that he requires a Presidential waiver.

    This is what "merit" means to them.

    https://bsky.app/profile/maxkennerly.bsky.social/post/3liq7jc73ac2y
    Racism, sexism, homophobia will all become very apparent soon, sadly. The rights of anyone not white and straight will slowly be reduced - as has already become the case for women.

    That's what the illiberals want.
    The generals would not have been fired, had they been fervent admirers of Trump; expressed support for slavey; claimed that the 2020 election was stolen etc.
    Saying someone is a "DEI hire" is now an acceptable way of expressing racism
    Saving people the trouble of saying “I don’t want to be racist, but…”

    After all, that intro was always followed by something quite obviously racist. no-one ever says “I don’t want to be racist, but I like shopping at Sainsbury’s “
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,648
    edited 2:40PM
    Barnesian said:

    Zelensky should offer President Xi a deal.
    Support Ukraine and dump Putin and you can have the minerals deal I refused Trump.

    The Art of the Deal.

    China is also now getting annoyed both by Trump's tariffs on their exports to the USA and Trump's shift towards supporting Taiwan's independence, so may be open to some deal with Zelensky to snub Trump

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/trumps-support-for-taiwan-has-infuriated-beijing/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,957

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Nevertheless, he is right to question the wisdom of the desperate need to continue this war without US support, when the US was the driving force behind our participation in it.

    Dickriding the US wasn't the sole motivation. I am sure Johnson got swept along, basking in the reflected glory of the martial euphoria when it looked like it might be an uncomplicated victory without any politically inconvenient mangled corpses. Indeed, the sheer density and quality of the memes coming from the front in February and March 2022 gave every indication that might be the case.

    The Western governments just got sucked in as it progressed, or rather didn't progress, and Z was stridently begging for the next thing that would make all the difference and break the deadlock. Leopards, then Patriot, then HIMARS, then F-16s. There was never any articulation of what victory might look like or any strategy of how they'd get there. It was just keep sending the money and weapons, hoping for a Russian collapse that never came.
    Yet, viewed very cold-bloodedly, Western aid to Ukraine has cost Russia about 10,000 armoured vehicles, 800,000 casualties, destroyed its best military units, and exacerbated its already severe demographic problems.

    Where is the downside for us, in any of that?
    It probably wasn't the very best way to use 10bn quid of taxpayers' money. They could actually done something that made the country better. Not much with 10bn, I grant you, but something.
    Your objection is that it frustrated Russia's aims.

    The argument you're making today is totally at odds with the one you made the day before yesterday that increased defence spending isn't necessary because Russia can't even retake all the Kursk Oblast, because it almost certainly would have been able to do so - if Ukraine had been able to make any form of incursion in the first place - were it not for that support.
    It’s arguable that Russia has been defeated.

    It’s unable to progress militarily against a moderate sized, quite poor country.

    Russia is conducting broken back warfare (pace. Herman Kahn) with a steady reduction in military technology, redolent of the regression of the German Army in WWII in the East. Iranian drones and North Korean shells….
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,339
    CatMan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is purging the military top brass to replace them with 'more compliant' individuals.

    I am curious about the motivation of any such individuals. I can see in the very short term career advancement, but in the next 5 or 10 years, unless the republic is overthrown and the insane clown and his posse remain in charge it's not going to end well for them

    How many of Hitler's top generals did well out of it...?

    Changing Joint Chiefs around the start of a presidential term isn’t, in itself, all that unusual.
    Which is not something you can say about the simultaneous dismissal of three Judge Advocates General.
    @maxkennerly.bsky.social‬

    Just look at these paragraphs from the AP story.

    Hegseth called Brown unqualified solely because he's Black. Then they fired him... and replaced him with a white guy so indisputably unqualified that he requires a Presidential waiver.

    This is what "merit" means to them.

    https://bsky.app/profile/maxkennerly.bsky.social/post/3liq7jc73ac2y
    Racism, sexism, homophobia will all become very apparent soon, sadly. The rights of anyone not white and straight will slowly be reduced - as has already become the case for women.

    That's what the illiberals want.
    The generals would not have been fired, had they been fervent admirers of Trump; expressed support for slavey; claimed that the 2020 election was stolen etc.
    Saying someone is a "DEI hire" is now an acceptable way of expressing racism
    No, it means you oppose racism - in this case reverse racism.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,373
    MattW said:

    Strange terminology from the BBC:

    Bali scooter crash with lorry was 'like a horror movie'

    A North Lanarkshire woman who nearly died in a freak accident in Bali has returned to the Indonesian island just seven months after the crash.

    Charlene Morrissey, from Airdrie, was on her way to a camping trip in a remote area near Mount Agung in July when her scooter collided with an HGV.

    The 34-year-old's arm got trapped inside the truck wheel and was "completely crushed".


    It's quite a story, but I don't get "her scooter collided" or "freak accident".

    She and/or the lorry driver chose to drive too close together, and she came of worse. Just what happens every day, everywhere - even here. There's been a meme for years about "self-driving motor vehicles", where collisions have nothing whatsoever to do with the driver.

    That's a battle for accurate language still being fought.

    My guess is the scooter was sitting or slipstreaming in the lorry's blind spot and got caught on the inside as it turned. Most of the 10 cyclists killed in London last year died in collisions with larger vehicles like buses or lorries rather than being hit by cars. There should perhaps be a public information campaign about how large vehicles turn. I've seen even car drivers caught out often enough.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,988

    kamski said:

    nico67 said:

    Sky News have a good article about those minerals .

    https://news.sky.com/story/unclear-whether-ukraine-us-rare-earth-saga-is-a-masterstroke-or-colonial-appropriation-13311930

    How much blowback would there be in Europe if the US cut off Star Link ?


    it's not altogether clear that any of the critical mineral deposits in Ukraine are of world-changing significance. It's certainly true that Ukraine has large proven resources of lithium - around 500,000 tonnes, more than any other country in Europe.However, this is small beer in comparison with the 1.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves in the US. Indeed, look at the other prospective lithium resources that sit underneath America and they come to a whopping 19 million tonnes, more than the country will ever need for its electric vehicle fleet.


    So maybe it's more about denying Ukraine’s natural resources to Europe (which would suit the US, Russia and China) than
    claiming them for America.
    Nah. It’s about money and who gets to exploit the minerals. Contracts will go to friends of Trump who will keep the “repayments” of US government support for Ukraine

    Like Iraq.
    Very different

    Contracts in Iraq went to big global oil companies, a number of whom are US (but usually public companies)

    In Ukraine’s case it will be going to the likes of Trump Mineral Corp, Musk Exploitation and Hesgeth Mining. Those companies are likely to sub-contract the operations to more experienced miners.

    There were more contracts than just oil. Haliburton is the oft cited winner from Iraq and is still winning there.
    Sure. And Halliburton is a big global engineering services company that is a credible winner of a contract. I’m sure the US government put their thumbs on the scale, but that is different to outright graft.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,533
    Hmm

    “The wheel weaves as the wheel wills”

    The wheel of my car, not so much. After a great day yesterday someone totalled my beloved car today by driving into the side of it.

    It's never dull around here.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,233

    MattW said:

    Strange terminology from the BBC:

    Bali scooter crash with lorry was 'like a horror movie'

    A North Lanarkshire woman who nearly died in a freak accident in Bali has returned to the Indonesian island just seven months after the crash.

    Charlene Morrissey, from Airdrie, was on her way to a camping trip in a remote area near Mount Agung in July when her scooter collided with an HGV.

    The 34-year-old's arm got trapped inside the truck wheel and was "completely crushed".


    It's quite a story, but I don't get "her scooter collided" or "freak accident".

    She and/or the lorry driver chose to drive too close together, and she came of worse. Just what happens every day, everywhere - even here. There's been a meme for years about "self-driving motor vehicles", where collisions have nothing whatsoever to do with the driver.

    That's a battle for accurate language still being fought.

    My guess is the scooter was sitting or slipstreaming in the lorry's blind spot and got caught on the inside as it turned. Most of the 10 cyclists killed in London last year died in collisions with larger vehicles like buses or lorries rather than being hit by cars. There should perhaps be a public information campaign about how large vehicles turn. I've seen even car drivers caught out often enough.
    Fair comment on the possible circumstances.

    But then one should not place oneself in such a position.

    (It is not clear whether it is an E-Scooter or a Vespa or equivalent.)

    It's a remarkable photograph of the skin grafts - also than morphine is not mentioned as one of the pain killers, it's tramadol and ketamine.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,583

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Nevertheless, he is right to question the wisdom of the desperate need to continue this war without US support, when the US was the driving force behind our participation in it.

    Dickriding the US wasn't the sole motivation. I am sure Johnson got swept along, basking in the reflected glory of the martial euphoria when it looked like it might be an uncomplicated victory without any politically inconvenient mangled corpses. Indeed, the sheer density and quality of the memes coming from the front in February and March 2022 gave every indication that might be the case.

    The Western governments just got sucked in as it progressed, or rather didn't progress, and Z was stridently begging for the next thing that would make all the difference and break the deadlock. Leopards, then Patriot, then HIMARS, then F-16s. There was never any articulation of what victory might look like or any strategy of how they'd get there. It was just keep sending the money and weapons, hoping for a Russian collapse that never came.
    Yet, viewed very cold-bloodedly, Western aid to Ukraine has cost Russia about 10,000 armoured vehicles, 800,000 casualties, destroyed its best military units, and exacerbated its already severe demographic problems.

    Where is the downside for us, in any of that?
    It probably wasn't the very best way to use 10bn quid of taxpayers' money. They could actually done something that made the country better. Not much with 10bn, I grant you, but something.
    Your objection is that it frustrated Russia's aims.

    The argument you're making today is totally at odds with the one you made the day before yesterday that increased defence spending isn't necessary because Russia can't even retake all the Kursk Oblast, because it almost certainly would have been able to do so - if Ukraine had been able to make any form of incursion in the first place - were it not for that support.
    It’s arguable that Russia has been defeated.

    It’s unable to progress militarily against a moderate sized, quite poor country.

    Russia is conducting broken back warfare (pace. Herman Kahn) with a steady reduction in military technology, redolent of the regression of the German Army in WWII in the East. Iranian drones and North Korean shells….
    Russian transport over three years:

    APCs -> "Scooby van" -> golf carts -> stolen cars -> walking to their death on crutches
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,583

    Trump either has a delicate sense of irony or he’s completely lacking in selfawareness…

    He’s just criticised Zelensky for being a “theatre kid” who has “started to believe he’s the character he’s playing”

    Home Alone 2 waves hello...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,803
    DavidL said:

    Hmm

    “The wheel weaves as the wheel wills”

    The wheel of my car, not so much. After a great day yesterday someone totalled my beloved car today by driving into the side of it.

    It's never dull around here.

    Opportunity to buy a Tesla on the cheap perhaps
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,345
    DavidL said:

    Hmm

    “The wheel weaves as the wheel wills”

    The wheel of my car, not so much. After a great day yesterday someone totalled my beloved car today by driving into the side of it.

    It's never dull around here.

    As long as you’re ok. Cars can be replaced. @DavidL’s not so much.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,988

    Trump either has a delicate sense of irony or he’s completely lacking in selfawareness…

    He’s just criticised Zelensky for being a “theatre kid” who has “started to believe he’s the character he’s playing”

    Home Alone 2 waves hello...
    I never watched it… I’m not a masochist…
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,533

    DavidL said:

    Hmm

    “The wheel weaves as the wheel wills”

    The wheel of my car, not so much. After a great day yesterday someone totalled my beloved car today by driving into the side of it.

    It's never dull around here.

    As long as you’re ok. Cars can be replaced. @DavidL’s not so much.
    Well yes, but I made the mistake of asking Webuyanycar what they thought my car was worth. A hell of a lot less than it was worth to me being the short answer.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,448
    boulay said:

    kamski said:

    nico67 said:

    Sky News have a good article about those minerals .

    https://news.sky.com/story/unclear-whether-ukraine-us-rare-earth-saga-is-a-masterstroke-or-colonial-appropriation-13311930

    How much blowback would there be in Europe if the US cut off Star Link ?


    it's not altogether clear that any of the critical mineral deposits in Ukraine are of world-changing significance. It's certainly true that Ukraine has large proven resources of lithium - around 500,000 tonnes, more than any other country in Europe.However, this is small beer in comparison with the 1.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves in the US. Indeed, look at the other prospective lithium resources that sit underneath America and they come to a whopping 19 million tonnes, more than the country will ever need for its electric vehicle fleet.


    So maybe it's more about denying Ukraine’s natural resources to Europe (which would suit the US, Russia and China) than
    claiming them for America.
    Nah. It’s about money and who gets to exploit the minerals. Contracts will go to friends of Trump who will keep the “repayments” of US government support for Ukraine

    Like Iraq.
    Very different

    Contracts in Iraq went to big global oil companies, a number of whom are US (but usually public companies)

    In Ukraine’s case it will be going to the likes of Trump Mineral Corp, Musk Exploitation and Hesgeth Mining. Those companies are likely to sub-contract the operations to more experienced miners.
    One does wonder how long it will take the American public to twig and ask “hang on, I thought the minerals were to pay back the US taxpayer but it’s all going to private companies who pay minimal taxes?

    Will the gaslighting continue to work or will they wake up?

    However, maybe the Europeans and Ukrainians, if providing the security in Ukraine, will do their own bit of extortion “nice mining business you have there Trump mining co, would be awful if something happened to it.”
    The gaslighting will continue to work unfortunately.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,665
    Rugby, eh?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,836
    edited 3:08PM

    kamski said:

    DougSeal said:

    Anyone got any tips for the German election? Seat totals etc?

    A CSU/CSU plurality seems a safe bet, as does the complete loss of FDP and fall in SPD support. The need to exclude the AFD probably points to a CDU-SPD coalition in the end, though a majority might be cobbled together with some of the small parties. The problem is essentially that if a CDU-SPD government is perceived to fail, the AFD will present themselves as the only substantial alternative. Germany doesn't usually do minority governments, which otherwise might be the best bet for the CDU/CSU.
    Watch out for the neo-nazi rampers - Musk, Putin, WilliamGlenn - subtracting the CSU total from the CDU/CSU total to make it look like the AfD came closer to winning.

    For those not familiar with the situation - the CSU is only in Bavaria, the CDU everywhere except Bavaria. They are 2 parties, but have a joint manifesto for the federal elections, and a joint Chancellor-candidate. The closest UK equivalent is the Scottish Green Party and English + Welsh Green Party being 2 parties - but you probably wouldn't separate the Scottish Green vote total from the English + Welsh Green vote total for your headline election results. Except of course Bavaria is a lot bigger than Scotland (13.4 million vs 5.4 million), and CDU/CSU are a lot bigger than the Green Parties of Britain.

    There's very little chance of a minority government for various reasons. Very likely Union+SPD, or if they don't have a majority Union+SPD+Greens. Small chance of Union+Greens if they have a majority. Very little chance of anything else.

    Anyone hoping for any significant rapid changes in German foreign policy are likely to be disappointed, though Merz may provide Taurus missiles once Chancellor (which might take a while), if that is even still relevant by then. Union+Greens would be the most likely option to offer more
    weapons to Ukraine.
    I thought the CSU and Greens were refusing to partner?

    The CSU have said there will be no coalition with the Greens, so Union+Greens is pretty unlikely, but it's not entirely ruled out. Merz said a couple of days ago that his coalition partners will be 'possibly the SPD, possibly the Greens. I have serious doubt about the FDP'. Which did lead to the CSU again saying there would be no coalition with the Greens.

    And if 3 factions are needed for a majority then Union+SPD+Greens might be the only possibility, although if the FDP get in then Union+SPD+FDP could also be possible, though also extremely problematic.

    And Green Party members could reject any coalition with the CDU/CSU.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,373
    Ronnie Boyce died earlier this month.

    Ronnie Boyce, West Ham stalwart who scored the winner in the 1964 FA Cup final
    He was known as ‘Ticker’ because he was the heartbeat of the Hammers

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2025/02/20/ronnie-boyce-west-ham-scored-1964-cup-final-died-obituary/ (£££)

    Which stimulated YouTube to show me this match, in which Jimmy Greaves maintained his record of scoring for every team on his debut.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cB8Csr1W29I

    But never mind the match, look at the ploughed field they are playing on. There was less mud at the Somme.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,665

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is purging the military top brass to replace them with 'more compliant' individuals.

    I am curious about the motivation of any such individuals. I can see in the very short term career advancement, but in the next 5 or 10 years, unless the republic is overthrown and the insane clown and his posse remain in charge it's not going to end well for them

    How many of Hitler's top generals did well out of it...?

    They get fired if they don’t take the job.

    And the usual route of a well paid job in the defence industry won’t be available if Trump blackspots them.

    I like to think some at least would go down in honour, but it will be interesting to watch
    But that's my point. Unless Trump rules forever, "a well paid job in the defence industry won’t be available" either. They will be lucky to stay out if jail. I don't understand the risk and reward equation
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,648
    edited 3:11PM
    kamski said:


    kamski said:

    DougSeal said:

    Anyone got any tips for the German election? Seat totals etc?

    A CSU/CSU plurality seems a safe bet, as does the complete loss of FDP and fall in SPD support. The need to exclude the AFD probably points to a CDU-SPD coalition in the end, though a majority might be cobbled together with some of the small parties. The problem is essentially that if a CDU-SPD government is perceived to fail, the AFD will present themselves as the only substantial alternative. Germany doesn't usually do minority governments, which otherwise might be the best bet for the CDU/CSU.
    Watch out for the neo-nazi rampers - Musk, Putin, WilliamGlenn - subtracting the CSU total from the CDU/CSU total to make it look like the AfD came closer to winning.

    For those not familiar with the situation - the CSU is only in Bavaria, the CDU everywhere except Bavaria. They are 2 parties, but have a joint manifesto for the federal elections, and a joint Chancellor-candidate. The closest UK equivalent is the Scottish Green Party and English + Welsh Green Party being 2 parties - but you probably wouldn't separate the Scottish Green vote total from the English + Welsh Green vote total for your headline election results. Except of course Bavaria is a lot bigger than Scotland (13.4 million vs 5.4 million), and CDU/CSU are a lot bigger than the Green Parties of Britain.

    There's very little chance of a minority government for various reasons. Very likely Union+SPD, or if they don't have a majority Union+SPD+Greens. Small chance of Union+Greens if they have a majority. Very little chance of anything else.

    Anyone hoping for any significant rapid changes in German foreign policy are likely to be disappointed, though Merz may provide Taurus missiles once Chancellor (which might take a while), if that is even still relevant by then. Union+Greens would be the most likely option to offer more
    weapons to Ukraine.
    I thought the CSU and Greens were refusing to partner?

    The CSU have said there will be no coalition with the Greens, so Union+Greens is pretty unlikely, but it's not entirely ruled out. Merz said a couple of days ago that his coalition partners will be 'possibly the SPD, possibly the Greens. I have serious doubt about the FDP'. Which did lead to the CSU again saying there would be no coalition with the Greens.

    And if 3 factions are needed for a majority then Union+SPD+Greens might be the only possibility, although if the FDP get in then Union+SPD+FDP could also be possible, though also extremely problematic.

    And Green Party members could reject any coalition with the CDU/CSU.
    Merz is basically a pro EU Thatcherite with a tough line on immigration, I can't see the Greens being keen on governing with him anyway even if the CSU weren't opposed to governing with them
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,830

    Jonathan said:

    What the betting that Trump demands Starmer hand over the Falklands to his Argentinian pal?

    Milei isn't demanding them. His position is that the wishes of the people living there should be respected.
    My suggestion would be that once we get a decent Government, we jointly exploit the oil wealth that lies under the Falklands with Argentina. Given that to do that we will presumably need their help/assent in some form anyway. We should do that before someone else gets dollar signs and decides to stir up the Argentinians for another go.

    It would be good finally to put to bed the troubles of the past, and for Argentina to relinquish its claims fully. Even if we need to build them another group of islands and call it Las Malvinas.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,836
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    DougSeal said:

    Anyone got any tips for the German election? Seat totals etc?

    A CSU/CSU plurality seems a safe bet, as does the complete loss of FDP and fall in SPD support. The need to exclude the AFD probably points to a CDU-SPD coalition in the end, though a majority might be cobbled together with some of the small parties. The problem is essentially that if a CDU-SPD government is perceived to fail, the AFD will present themselves as the only substantial alternative. Germany doesn't usually do minority governments, which otherwise might be the best bet for the CDU/CSU.
    Watch out for the neo-nazi rampers - Musk, Putin, WilliamGlenn - subtracting the CSU total from the CDU/CSU total to make it look like the AfD came closer to winning.

    For those not familiar with the situation - the CSU is only in Bavaria, the CDU everywhere except Bavaria. They are 2 parties, but have a joint manifesto for the federal elections, and a joint Chancellor-candidate. The closest UK equivalent is the Scottish Green Party and English + Welsh Green Party being 2 parties - but you probably wouldn't separate the Scottish Green vote total from the English + Welsh Green vote total for your headline election results. Except of course Bavaria is a lot bigger than Scotland (13.4 million vs 5.4 million), and CDU/CSU are a lot bigger than the Green Parties of Britain.

    There's very little chance of a minority government for various reasons. Very likely Union+SPD, or if they don't have a majority Union+SPD+Greens. Small chance of Union+Greens if they have a majority. Very little chance of anything else.

    Anyone hoping for any significant rapid changes in German foreign policy are likely to be disappointed, though Merz may provide Taurus missiles once Chancellor (which might take a while), if that is even still relevant by then. Union+Greens would be the most likely option to offer more weapons to Ukraine.
    Merz, FWIW, has been much more outspoken about supporting Ukraine than has the feeble Scholz. Is that not likely to lead to some change ?
    A Merz win tomorrow will be a big shift in Germany. As well as being a hawk on Putin and a proponent of higher defence spending he is also an economic neoliberal and an advocate of privatisation and deregulation and cutting bureaucracy while also taking a harder line on immigration (in some respects like Trump and Musk there) and wants to privatise some social welfare schemes. In the past he even opposed the minimum wage and unfair dismissal laws and is a conservative Roman Catholic in his private life.

    Merz would likely be the most rightwing German Chancellor since WW2

    https://unherd.com/2025/02/will-merz-sell-germany-to-blackrock/
    Except the CDU/CSU will be a long way from a majority and any policies will need the agreement of at least one of the SPD and Greens.

    Also, people don't like him so he's not going to be able to push anything through on the back of any personal mandate or charisma.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,583

    Jonathan said:

    What the betting that Trump demands Starmer hand over the Falklands to his Argentinian pal?

    Milei isn't demanding them. His position is that the wishes of the people living there should be respected.
    My suggestion would be that once we get a decent Government, we jointly exploit the oil wealth that lies under the Falklands with Argentina. Given that to do that we will presumably need their help/assent in some form anyway. We should do that before someone else gets dollar signs and decides to stir up the Argentinians for another go.

    It would be good finally to put to bed the troubles of the past, and for Argentina to relinquish its claims fully. Even if we need to build them another group of islands and call it Las Malvinas.
    Joint development doesn't fly on the islands.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,904
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Zelensky should offer President Xi a deal.
    Support Ukraine and dump Putin and you can have the minerals deal I refused Trump.

    The Art of the Deal.

    China is also now getting annoyed both by Trump's tariffs on their exports to the USA and Trump's shift towards supporting Taiwan's independence, so may be open to some deal with Zelensky to snub Trump

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/trumps-support-for-taiwan-has-infuriated-beijing/
    And also to get rare earths and a position in Europe on the way to an EU/China alliance.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,533
    Australia have this. England's bowling problems are going to cost them the game.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,648
    edited 3:45PM
    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    DougSeal said:

    Anyone got any tips for the German election? Seat totals etc?

    A CSU/CSU plurality seems a safe bet, as does the complete loss of FDP and fall in SPD support. The need to exclude the AFD probably points to a CDU-SPD coalition in the end, though a majority might be cobbled together with some of the small parties. The problem is essentially that if a CDU-SPD government is perceived to fail, the AFD will present themselves as the only substantial alternative. Germany doesn't usually do minority governments, which otherwise might be the best bet for the CDU/CSU.
    Watch out for the neo-nazi rampers - Musk, Putin, WilliamGlenn - subtracting the CSU total from the CDU/CSU total to make it look like the AfD came closer to winning.

    For those not familiar with the situation - the CSU is only in Bavaria, the CDU everywhere except Bavaria. They are 2 parties, but have a joint manifesto for the federal elections, and a joint Chancellor-candidate. The closest UK equivalent is the Scottish Green Party and English + Welsh Green Party being 2 parties - but you probably wouldn't separate the Scottish Green vote total from the English + Welsh Green vote total for your headline election results. Except of course Bavaria is a lot bigger than Scotland (13.4 million vs 5.4 million), and CDU/CSU are a lot bigger than the Green Parties of Britain.

    There's very little chance of a minority government for various reasons. Very likely Union+SPD, or if they don't have a majority Union+SPD+Greens. Small chance of Union+Greens if they have a majority. Very little chance of anything else.

    Anyone hoping for any significant rapid changes in German foreign policy are likely to be disappointed, though Merz may provide Taurus missiles once Chancellor (which might take a while), if that is even still relevant by then. Union+Greens would be the most likely option to offer more weapons to Ukraine.
    Merz, FWIW, has been much more outspoken about supporting Ukraine than has the feeble Scholz. Is that not likely to lead to some change ?
    A Merz win tomorrow will be a big shift in Germany. As well as being a hawk on Putin and a proponent of higher defence spending he is also an economic neoliberal and an advocate of privatisation and deregulation and cutting bureaucracy while also taking a harder line on immigration (in some respects like Trump and Musk there) and wants to privatise some social welfare schemes. In the past he even opposed the minimum wage and unfair dismissal laws and is a conservative Roman Catholic in his private life.

    Merz would likely be the most rightwing German Chancellor since WW2

    https://unherd.com/2025/02/will-merz-sell-germany-to-blackrock/
    Except the CDU/CSU will be a long way from a majority and any policies will need the agreement of at least one of the SPD and Greens.

    Also, people don't like him so he's not going to be able to push anything through on the back of any personal mandate or charisma.
    On current polls the CDU/CSU will win a landslide majority of constituency seats and get comfortably most seats once the PR list seats are added too. They will probably be around 10% ahead of the AfD, who are likely to be second and even harder line anti immigration than Merz is.

    The SPD and Greens are both heading for crushing defeat. If one of them forms a government with Merz they will be on probation, only there to provide a firewall to keep out the AfD. Merz will have a far bigger mandate than either of them and he can always hold out the threat of doing a deal with the AfD if they keep blocking his agenda.

    Many people didn't like Thatcher either but she got things done, Merz looks the closest thing Germany has had to a German Thatcher
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,957

    Jonathan said:

    What the betting that Trump demands Starmer hand over the Falklands to his Argentinian pal?

    Milei isn't demanding them. His position is that the wishes of the people living there should be respected.
    My suggestion would be that once we get a decent Government, we jointly exploit the oil wealth that lies under the Falklands with Argentina. Given that to do that we will presumably need their help/assent in some form anyway. We should do that before someone else gets dollar signs and decides to stir up the Argentinians for another go.

    It would be good finally to put to bed the troubles of the past, and for Argentina to relinquish its claims fully. Even if we need to build them another group of islands and call it Las Malvinas.
    Joint development doesn't fly on the islands.
    The oil and gas near the Falklands would be extremely expensive to get to. Deep water and some of the worst weather in the world.

    There is a reason that very little has been done there.

    None of it is in Argentine territorial waters. It’s all in the Falklands economic zone or international waters.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,397
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is purging the military top brass to replace them with 'more compliant' individuals.

    I am curious about the motivation of any such individuals. I can see in the very short term career advancement, but in the next 5 or 10 years, unless the republic is overthrown and the insane clown and his posse remain in charge it's not going to end well for them

    How many of Hitler's top generals did well out of it...?

    They get fired if they don’t take the job.

    And the usual route of a well paid job in the defence industry won’t be available if Trump blackspots them.

    I like to think some at least would go down in honour, but it will be interesting to watch
    But that's my point. Unless Trump rules forever, "a well paid job in the defence industry won’t be available" either. They will be lucky to stay out if jail. I don't understand the risk and reward equation
    Maybe they are old enough to think they can grift for 4 years and never work again
  • WinchyWinchy Posts: 126
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is purging the military top brass to replace them with 'more compliant' individuals.

    I am curious about the motivation of any such individuals. I can see in the very short term career advancement, but in the next 5 or 10 years, unless the republic is overthrown and the insane clown and his posse remain in charge it's not going to end well for them

    How many of Hitler's top generals did well out of it...?

    They get fired if they don’t take the job.

    And the usual route of a well paid job in the defence industry won’t be available if Trump blackspots them.

    I like to think some at least would go down in honour, but it will be interesting to watch
    But that's my point. Unless Trump rules forever, "a well paid job in the defence industry won’t be available" either. They will be lucky to stay out if jail. I don't understand the risk and reward equation
    Spoils. Fuck the career and eventual carpet-slippered retirement - go for the money. Jail? Is the judge hard enough? How would he fancy a car bomb?

    This is more like the collapse of the USSR than the purges of top brass by Hitler and Stalin.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,830

    Jonathan said:

    What the betting that Trump demands Starmer hand over the Falklands to his Argentinian pal?

    Milei isn't demanding them. His position is that the wishes of the people living there should be respected.
    My suggestion would be that once we get a decent Government, we jointly exploit the oil wealth that lies under the Falklands with Argentina. Given that to do that we will presumably need their help/assent in some form anyway. We should do that before someone else gets dollar signs and decides to stir up the Argentinians for another go.

    It would be good finally to put to bed the troubles of the past, and for Argentina to relinquish its claims fully. Even if we need to build them another group of islands and call it Las Malvinas.
    Joint development doesn't fly on the islands.
    The oil and gas near the Falklands would be extremely expensive to get to. Deep water and some of the worst weather in the world.

    There is a reason that very little has been done there.

    None of it is in Argentine territorial waters. It’s all in the Falklands economic zone or international waters.
    Nevertheless, they have an interest in the region, and as long as the sovereignty and way of life of the Falkland Islands is unaffected, I don't really see the issue with jointly exploiting these resources. I absolutely don't see that we can do this by ourselves without this raising its ugly head in Argentina again, and therefore attracting bigger sharks into the water to 'help' Argentina press its claim. Far better to do a joint project and avoid any issues from the start.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,836
    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    DougSeal said:

    Anyone got any tips for the German election? Seat totals etc?

    A CSU/CSU plurality seems a safe bet, as does the complete loss of FDP and fall in SPD support. The need to exclude the AFD probably points to a CDU-SPD coalition in the end, though a majority might be cobbled together with some of the small parties. The problem is essentially that if a CDU-SPD government is perceived to fail, the AFD will present themselves as the only substantial alternative. Germany doesn't usually do minority governments, which otherwise might be the best bet for the CDU/CSU.
    Watch out for the neo-nazi rampers - Musk, Putin, WilliamGlenn - subtracting the CSU total from the CDU/CSU total to make it look like the AfD came closer to winning.

    For those not familiar with the situation - the CSU is only in Bavaria, the CDU everywhere except Bavaria. They are 2 parties, but have a joint manifesto for the federal elections, and a joint Chancellor-candidate. The closest UK equivalent is the Scottish Green Party and English + Welsh Green Party being 2 parties - but you probably wouldn't separate the Scottish Green vote total from the English + Welsh Green vote total for your headline election results. Except of course Bavaria is a lot bigger than Scotland (13.4 million vs 5.4 million), and CDU/CSU are a lot bigger than the Green Parties of Britain.

    There's very little chance of a minority government for various reasons. Very likely Union+SPD, or if they don't have a majority Union+SPD+Greens. Small chance of Union+Greens if they have a majority. Very little chance of anything else.

    Anyone hoping for any significant rapid changes in German foreign policy are likely to be disappointed, though Merz may provide Taurus missiles once Chancellor (which might take a while), if that is even still relevant by then. Union+Greens would be the most likely option to offer more weapons to Ukraine.
    Merz, FWIW, has been much more outspoken about supporting Ukraine than has the feeble Scholz. Is that not likely to lead to some change ?
    A Merz win tomorrow will be a big shift in Germany. As well as being a hawk on Putin and a proponent of higher defence spending he is also an economic neoliberal and an advocate of privatisation and deregulation and cutting bureaucracy while also taking a harder line on immigration (in some respects like Trump and Musk there) and wants to privatise some social welfare schemes. In the past he even opposed the minimum wage and unfair dismissal laws and is a conservative Roman Catholic in his private life.

    Merz would likely be the most rightwing German Chancellor since WW2

    https://unherd.com/2025/02/will-merz-sell-germany-to-blackrock/
    Except the CDU/CSU will be a long way from a majority and any policies will need the agreement of at least one of the SPD and Greens.

    Also, people don't like him so he's not going to be able to push anything through on the back of any personal mandate or charisma.
    On current polls the CDU/CSU will win a landslide majority of constituency seats and get comfortably most seats once the PR list seats are added too. They will probably be around 10% ahead of the AfD, who are likely to be second and even harder line anti immigration than Merz is.

    The SPD and Greens are both heading for crushing defeat. If one of them forms a government with Merz they will be on probation, only there to provide a firewall to keep out the AfD. Merz will have a far bigger mandate than either of them and he can always hold out the threat of doing a deal with the AfD if they keep blocking his agenda.

    Many people didn't like Thatcher either but she got things done, Merz looks the closest thing Germany has had to a German Thatcher
    No, there will be coalition negotiations to agree a program. The idea that the SPD or Greens might agree to something like scrapping the minimum wage is pure fantasy. As is the idea that the CDU will use the threat of doing a deal with the AfD as leverage.

    You seem to be also unaware of the fact that opinion polls show the Greens likely to lose maybe 1 or 2 percent of the 14.7% they got last time, so they are unlikely to be heading for a 'crushing defeat'.

    There is no concept of being 'on probation' in German coalitions.

    Thatcher is another country and another century so is completely irrelevant, so I'll only point out that she had majorities in parliament, whereas CDU/CSU will only get around a third of the seats, how many constituencies they win is also pretty irrelevant.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,745

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Nevertheless, he is right to question the wisdom of the desperate need to continue this war without US support, when the US was the driving force behind our participation in it.

    Dickriding the US wasn't the sole motivation. I am sure Johnson got swept along, basking in the reflected glory of the martial euphoria when it looked like it might be an uncomplicated victory without any politically inconvenient mangled corpses. Indeed, the sheer density and quality of the memes coming from the front in February and March 2022 gave every indication that might be the case.

    The Western governments just got sucked in as it progressed, or rather didn't progress, and Z was stridently begging for the next thing that would make all the difference and break the deadlock. Leopards, then Patriot, then HIMARS, then F-16s. There was never any articulation of what victory might look like or any strategy of how they'd get there. It was just keep sending the money and weapons, hoping for a Russian collapse that never came.
    Yet, viewed very cold-bloodedly, Western aid to Ukraine has cost Russia about 10,000 armoured vehicles, 800,000 casualties, destroyed its best military units, and exacerbated its already severe demographic problems.

    Where is the downside for us, in any of that?
    It probably wasn't the very best way to use 10bn quid of taxpayers' money. They could actually done something that made the country better. Not much with 10bn, I grant you, but something.
    That works out at less than £50 per person per year as our contribution to destroying Russia's military.

    Its difficult to think of a more effective piece of government spending.
    It is incredibly good value for money - viewed in terms of cold realpolitik. Russia has proved itself relentlessly hostile towards our interests.
    Well, they are now apparently so hostile and capable that we have to double defence spending or they'll kill us all so it clearly hasn't worked.
    Once the USA turned its back on NATO, increased defence spending became an inevitability.

    Better to be increasing it, when Russia is down 800,000 men, and 10,000 armoured vehicles, than when it isn't.
    You seem to think it’s the UK’s responsibility to step into America’s shoes in Europe.
    Was it not, pre-1945, always a cornerstone of British foreign policy, that no one power should become dominant in Europe?
    Do you think there is any risk that Russia would conquer the EU if we didn’t stop it?
    I think it's a certainty he'd go for the Baltics
    and/or Finland. Kaliningrad is an exposed exclave. Basically Putin wants the Warsaw Pact back. Here's an article wot I wrote: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/05/02/why-ukraine-was-particularly-vulnerable/
    The Baltics certainly, Finland less so.

    He wants to be able to control the gap between the carpathians and the Baltic Sea.

    It’s all about protecting the heartland.
    It’s also about distracting the Russian population from the problem at home by blaming external forces.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,745
    Fishing said:

    CatMan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is purging the military top brass to replace them with 'more compliant' individuals.

    I am curious about the motivation of any such individuals. I can see in the very short term career advancement, but in the next 5 or 10 years, unless the republic is overthrown and the insane clown and his posse remain in charge it's not going to end well for them

    How many of Hitler's top generals did well out of it...?

    Changing Joint Chiefs around the start of a presidential term isn’t, in itself, all that unusual.
    Which is not something you can say about the simultaneous dismissal of three Judge Advocates General.
    @maxkennerly.bsky.social‬

    Just look at these paragraphs from the AP story.

    Hegseth called Brown unqualified solely because he's Black. Then they fired him... and replaced him with a white guy so indisputably unqualified that he requires a Presidential waiver.

    This is what "merit" means to them.

    https://bsky.app/profile/maxkennerly.bsky.social/post/3liq7jc73ac2y
    Racism, sexism, homophobia will all become very apparent soon, sadly. The rights of anyone not white and straight will slowly be reduced - as has already become the case for women.

    That's what the illiberals want.
    The generals would not have been fired, had they been fervent admirers of Trump; expressed support for slavey; claimed that the 2020 election was stolen etc.
    Saying someone is a "DEI hire" is now an acceptable way of expressing racism
    No, it means you oppose racism - in this case reverse racism.
    That would be more believable if we weren’t seeing the Trump administration firing supposed “DEI hires” and then replacing them with complete incompetents, whose main qualifications are that they looked good on Fox News,
  • WinchyWinchy Posts: 126
    Interesting that the maker of poncy cars and brain implants who showed his right-arm problem when he was literally hailing Trump's victory is on record as calling Hitler a communist. I don't doubt there are elements of German Nazism that Musk dislikes or believes are inapplicable. Or one element, at least. The fact that the American Nazi Party used to be called the World Union of Free Enterprise National Socialists may give a clue.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,598
    The perpetrator of the attack at the Holocaust memorial in Berlin yesterday was a 19-year-old asylum seeker from Syria who wanted to "kill Jews".

    https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/justiz/berlin-was-ueber-den-angriff-am-holocaustmahnmal-bekannt-ist-a-576e87b2-0e0b-421c-ac8a-653579983819
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,745

    MattW said:

    Strange terminology from the BBC:

    Bali scooter crash with lorry was 'like a horror movie'

    A North Lanarkshire woman who nearly died in a freak accident in Bali has returned to the Indonesian island just seven months after the crash.

    Charlene Morrissey, from Airdrie, was on her way to a camping trip in a remote area near Mount Agung in July when her scooter collided with an HGV.

    The 34-year-old's arm got trapped inside the truck wheel and was "completely crushed".


    It's quite a story, but I don't get "her scooter collided" or "freak accident".

    She and/or the lorry driver chose to drive too close together, and she came of worse. Just what happens every day, everywhere - even here. There's been a meme for years about "self-driving motor vehicles", where collisions have nothing whatsoever to do with the driver.

    That's a battle for accurate language still being fought.

    My guess is the scooter was sitting or slipstreaming in the lorry's blind spot and got caught on the inside as it turned. Most of the 10 cyclists killed in London last year died in collisions with larger vehicles like buses or lorries rather than being hit by cars. There should perhaps be a public information campaign about how large vehicles turn. I've seen even car drivers caught out often enough.
    There are public information campaigns about how large vehicles turn and their blind spots more generally.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,583
    edited 4:14PM

    Jonathan said:

    What the betting that Trump demands Starmer hand over the Falklands to his Argentinian pal?

    Milei isn't demanding them. His position is that the wishes of the people living there should be respected.
    My suggestion would be that once we get a decent Government, we jointly exploit the oil wealth that lies under the Falklands with Argentina. Given that to do that we will presumably need their help/assent in some form anyway. We should do that before someone else gets dollar signs and decides to stir up the Argentinians for another go.

    It would be good finally to put to bed the troubles of the past, and for Argentina to relinquish its claims fully. Even if we need to build them another group of islands and call it Las Malvinas.
    Joint development doesn't fly on the islands.
    The oil and gas near the Falklands would be extremely expensive to get to. Deep water and some of the worst weather in the world.

    There is a reason that very little has been done there.

    None of it is in Argentine territorial waters. It’s all in the Falklands economic zone or international waters.
    Nevertheless, they have an interest in the region, and as long as the sovereignty and way of life of the Falkland Islands is unaffected, I don't really see the issue with jointly exploiting these resources. I absolutely don't see that we can do this by ourselves without this raising its ugly head in Argentina again, and therefore attracting bigger sharks into the water to 'help' Argentina press its claim. Far better to do a joint project and avoid any issues from the start.
    The bigger issue is the supply base to support the operations. They can't get one in Argentina. Uruguay would be antagonising Argentina if they agreed. Brazil are not inclined to piss off Argentina (although I have been told that at non-Governmental parties are prepared to offer it).

    They have even looked at using a base in South Africa. Having been across those waters in a force 12, I wouldn't fancy that contract! (I have had two different house guests recently, both have been involved in the development of Falklands hydrocarbons; and a separate meeting with a third company too.
  • WinchyWinchy Posts: 126
    kle4 said:

    Winchy said:

    kle4 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    A good slice of this board thinks posters are being hysterical when they point out that politicians who support the AfD, Putin, use Nazi language and make Nazi salutes might err, be a bit Nazi.
    It’s not a particularly helpful term - because it immediately makes people think about toothbrush-moustaches and German dictators.

    It’s the same with “fascist”. The left abused the terms for so long to try and demonise their moderate opponents that they no longer have the power to shock.



    Thank goodness we have the right’s measured use of commie, Trot and Stalinist as an example of restraint.
    For some reason Stalinist doesn't seem to be as common a derogatory label as the others in my experience. Is that because people associate Stalin and communism more strongly, or because Trotskyite groups were more prominent in the West among loony marxist groups?

    (I'm assuming here there are non-loony marxist groups, which is perhaps over generous, like assuming there were moderate BNP branches).
    I have no idea what you mean by loony or marxist, but in western countries there were orders of magnitude more members of Stalinist parties than there were of Trotskyist ones. The largest of the former tended to be called things like "Communist Party of [Country]" or "[Country] Communist Party". See Spain, France, Italy, Britain, etc.

    Wait till you find out about anti-Bolshevik communism :-)
    I had a grand time reading a 'newspaper' I found on a train one time telling me how trotskyites were the real enemies of communism.

    It'd all be fascinating from an academic perspective.

    This is not even close to the total number of similar groups I know.
    I was pointing out that people who have called themselves "communist" contain some who are a long, long way from Stalinism, Trotskyism, or any other type of Leninism. This is not a very well-known fact, and I doubt you or many here were aware of it. I even gave you a friendly hint as to where you might find some - and you reply to say 57 varieties, nur nur nur.

    As well as anti-Bolshevik communism, see also anti-state communism and anti-party communism. Most in this bracket have not suffered from factionism-itis up the "groupuscules". (Some have.)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,919

    The perpetrator of the attack at the Holocaust memorial in Berlin yesterday was a 19-year-old asylum seeker from Syria who wanted to "kill Jews".

    https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/justiz/berlin-was-ueber-den-angriff-am-holocaustmahnmal-bekannt-ist-a-576e87b2-0e0b-421c-ac8a-653579983819

    Well there is a neo nazi party to vote for next week for those in sympathy.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,231
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Zelensky should offer President Xi a deal.
    Support Ukraine and dump Putin and you can have the minerals deal I refused Trump.

    The Art of the Deal.

    China is also now getting annoyed both by Trump's tariffs on their exports to the USA and Trump's shift towards supporting Taiwan's independence, so may be open to some deal with Zelensky to snub Trump

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/trumps-support-for-taiwan-has-infuriated-beijing/
    And also to get rare earths and a position in Europe on the way to an EU/China alliance.
    Europe could be very, very grateful if Ukraine was saved and Putin put away.
  • My guess is the scooter was sitting or slipstreaming in the lorry's blind spot and got caught on the inside as it turned. Most of the 10 cyclists killed in London last year died in collisions with larger vehicles like buses or lorries rather than being hit by cars. There should perhaps be a public information campaign about how large vehicles turn. I've seen even car drivers caught out often enough.

    When you learn to ride a motorcycle in the UK the instructors are crystal clear that you should never sit in the blind spot of any vehicle, particularly HGVs. They pound on that topic as its an easy way to get killed.

    My guess is the woman involved in the crash didn't have any training, in a lot of touristy places they'll just rent you a scooter without showing any kind of licence. And people rent one thinking "oh, it's just a scooter how hard can it be" blindly oblivious that safely riding a scooter is much more difficult than driving a car.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,957

    DecrepiterJohnL asked: "Is Trump still charging the Secret Service for accommodation at his own resorts?"

    I believe so. And those trips are incredibly expensive, each one costing millions of dollars.

    (The Secret Service loved it when George W. Bush stayed at his home near Crawford, Texas, as it made their jobs far easier.)

    And he didn’t charge them for accommodation…

    IIRC GBW and his daughters mentioned to the Obama family that it was important to schedule some things like trips to Camp David at holiday times - to let the staff and Secret Service get a bit of a break.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,957
    Winchy said:

    kle4 said:

    Winchy said:

    kle4 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    A good slice of this board thinks posters are being hysterical when they point out that politicians who support the AfD, Putin, use Nazi language and make Nazi salutes might err, be a bit Nazi.
    It’s not a particularly helpful term - because it immediately makes people think about toothbrush-moustaches and German dictators.

    It’s the same with “fascist”. The left abused the terms for so long to try and demonise their moderate opponents that they no longer have the power to shock.



    Thank goodness we have the right’s measured use of commie, Trot and Stalinist as an example of restraint.
    For some reason Stalinist doesn't seem to be as common a derogatory label as the others in my experience. Is that because people associate Stalin and communism more strongly, or because Trotskyite groups were more prominent in the West among loony marxist groups?

    (I'm assuming here there are non-loony marxist groups, which is perhaps over generous, like assuming there were moderate BNP branches).
    I have no idea what you mean by loony or marxist, but in western countries there were orders of magnitude more members of Stalinist parties than there were of Trotskyist ones. The largest of the former tended to be called things like "Communist Party of [Country]" or "[Country] Communist Party". See Spain, France, Italy, Britain, etc.

    Wait till you find out about anti-Bolshevik communism :-)
    I had a grand time reading a 'newspaper' I found on a train one time telling me how trotskyites were the real enemies of communism.

    It'd all be fascinating from an academic perspective.

    This is not even close to the total number of similar groups I know.
    I was pointing out that people who have called themselves "communist" contain some who are a long, long way from Stalinism, Trotskyism, or any other type of Leninism. This is not a very well-known fact, and I doubt you or many here were aware of it. I even gave you a friendly hint as to where you might find some - and you reply to say 57 varieties, nur nur nur.

    As well as anti-Bolshevik communism, see also anti-state communism and anti-party communism. Most in this bracket have not suffered from factionism-itis up the "groupuscules". (Some have.)
    Are you a member of the People’s Popular Front of Judea, or the Popular People’s Front?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,957
    Winchy said:

    Interesting that the maker of poncy cars and brain implants who showed his right-arm problem when he was literally hailing Trump's victory is on record as calling Hitler a communist. I don't doubt there are elements of German Nazism that Musk dislikes or believes are inapplicable. Or one element, at least. The fact that the American Nazi Party used to be called the World Union of Free Enterprise National Socialists may give a clue.

    Tolkien, who was an expert on German culture, thought that the Nazis were a mix of the worst aspects of Kaiserism and Bolshevism. Horseshoes, again.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,916
    edited 4:33PM

    DecrepiterJohnL asked: "Is Trump still charging the Secret Service for accommodation at his own resorts?"

    I believe so. And those trips are incredibly expensive, each one costing millions of dollars.

    (The Secret Service loved it when George W. Bush stayed at his home near Crawford, Texas, as it made their jobs far easier.)

    And he didn’t charge them for accommodation…

    IIRC GBW and his daughters mentioned to the Obama family that it was important to schedule some things like trips to Camp David at holiday times - to let the staff and Secret Service get a bit of a break.
    GWB was at heart a decent man, even if he did things that people disliked, that decency still shone though.

    The change from the next GOP President couldn't be more stark.

    Its funny watching back contemporary shows that were built around being critical of GWB, like Boston Legal, almost how quaint some of the criticism is compared to what was to follow.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612
    MattW said:

    Did anyone listen to Question Time this week?

    A somewhat interesting panel:

    On the panel are: former chief of the defence staff General Sir Nick Carter; Lesia Vasylenko, a Ukrainian MP; from the UK government, cabinet office minister Nick Thomas-Symonds MP; Conservative Sir Ben Wallace, who spent five years as secretary of state for defence; and a Trump campaign adviser, Jan Halper-Hayes.

    Nick Carter is the one in charge when the army's armour was reduced in around 2020. One of the things he comments on is "not enough tanks". :wink:

    Given how the Beeb dumbs down I wouldn’t have been surprised if it was Nick Carter from the Backstreet Boys.

    QT has been unwatchable, like Newsnight, for a long time now.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612
    Rugger about to start.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,922
    Wtf do we have a person trilling our national anthem at a pitch that doesn’t suit a load of beery English people when the Scots have a booming singer?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,480
    edited 4:48PM
    Winchy said:

    kle4 said:

    Winchy said:

    kle4 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    A good slice of this board thinks posters are being hysterical when they point out that politicians who support the AfD, Putin, use Nazi language and make Nazi salutes might err, be a bit Nazi.
    It’s not a particularly helpful term - because it immediately makes people think about toothbrush-moustaches and German dictators.

    It’s the same with “fascist”. The left abused the terms for so long to try and demonise their moderate opponents that they no longer have the power to shock.



    Thank goodness we have the right’s measured use of commie, Trot and Stalinist as an example of restraint.
    For some reason Stalinist doesn't seem to be as common a derogatory label as the others in my experience. Is that because people associate Stalin and communism more strongly, or because Trotskyite groups were more prominent in the West among loony marxist groups?

    (I'm assuming here there are non-loony marxist groups, which is perhaps over generous, like assuming there were moderate BNP branches).
    I have no idea what you mean by loony or marxist, but in western countries there were orders of magnitude more members of Stalinist parties than there were of Trotskyist ones. The largest of the former tended to be called things like "Communist Party of [Country]" or "[Country] Communist Party". See Spain, France, Italy, Britain, etc.

    Wait till you find out about anti-Bolshevik communism :-)
    I had a grand time reading a 'newspaper' I found on a train one time telling me how trotskyites were the real enemies of communism.

    It'd all be fascinating from an academic perspective.

    This is not even close to the total number of similar groups I know.
    I was pointing out that people who have called themselves "communist" contain some who are a long, long way from Stalinism, Trotskyism, or any other type of Leninism. This is not a very well-known fact, and I doubt you or many here were aware of it. I even gave you a friendly hint as to where you might find some - and you reply to say 57 varieties, nur nur nur.

    As well as anti-Bolshevik communism, see also anti-state communism and anti-party communism. Most in this bracket have not suffered from factionism-itis up the "groupuscules". (Some have.)
    I'm not sure why you've gotten so sniffy about my reply. I found your comment interesting, and that was why I made a specific point of noting that the there are a wide variety of groups even beyond the sole variety that article I imaged showed. I thought I was validating your point by noting that even with such stupid factionalism in that example there is a lot more to it, and that it would be interesting from an academic perspective.

    I'm not even sure what your nur nur nur point is supposed to be about. If it is objecting to the easy gag about radical left splitter groups you're about 50 years too late to object to it and they embody the stereotype so you'll have to live with it. If they don't want to be mocked for it they need to stop splitting over minute differences and acting like idiots. If it is that I took the easy gag, then guilty I did, because those groups are hilarious.

    If the point was I didnt acknowledge the point that there are varities beyond types of Leninism then you're incorrect, as I did, that's why I talked about 'similar groups' ie other communist groups.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612
    Nice try for the Scots.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,188

    Fishing said:

    CatMan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is purging the military top brass to replace them with 'more compliant' individuals.

    I am curious about the motivation of any such individuals. I can see in the very short term career advancement, but in the next 5 or 10 years, unless the republic is overthrown and the insane clown and his posse remain in charge it's not going to end well for them

    How many of Hitler's top generals did well out of it...?

    Changing Joint Chiefs around the start of a presidential term isn’t, in itself, all that unusual.
    Which is not something you can say about the simultaneous dismissal of three Judge Advocates General.
    @maxkennerly.bsky.social‬

    Just look at these paragraphs from the AP story.

    Hegseth called Brown unqualified solely because he's Black. Then they fired him... and replaced him with a white guy so indisputably unqualified that he requires a Presidential waiver.

    This is what "merit" means to them.

    https://bsky.app/profile/maxkennerly.bsky.social/post/3liq7jc73ac2y
    Racism, sexism, homophobia will all become very apparent soon, sadly. The rights of anyone not white and straight will slowly be reduced - as has already become the case for women.

    That's what the illiberals want.
    The generals would not have been fired, had they been fervent admirers of Trump; expressed support for slavey; claimed that the 2020 election was stolen etc.
    Saying someone is a "DEI hire" is now an acceptable way of expressing racism
    No, it means you oppose racism - in this case reverse racism.
    That would be more believable if we weren’t seeing the Trump administration firing supposed “DEI hires” and then replacing them with complete incompetents, whose main qualifications are that they looked good on Fox News,
    As a matter of interest, has Trump appointed any minorities since his anti DEI campaign started?

  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612
    England try. Was it grounded 🤔
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,155
    boulay said:

    Barnesian said:

    Zelensky should offer President Xi a deal.
    Support Ukraine and dump Putin and you can have the minerals deal I refused Trump.

    The Art of the Deal.

    Yup, and 100,000 Chinese troops to provide security on the Ukraine border. Would just love to see the Pantone shade that Trump’s face would turn.
    021c
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,373

    My guess is the scooter was sitting or slipstreaming in the lorry's blind spot and got caught on the inside as it turned. Most of the 10 cyclists killed in London last year died in collisions with larger vehicles like buses or lorries rather than being hit by cars. There should perhaps be a public information campaign about how large vehicles turn. I've seen even car drivers caught out often enough.

    When you learn to ride a motorcycle in the UK the instructors are crystal clear that you should never sit in the blind spot of any vehicle, particularly HGVs. They pound on that topic as its an easy way to get killed.

    My guess is the woman involved in the crash didn't have any training, in a lot of touristy places they'll just rent you a scooter without showing any kind of licence. And people rent one thinking "oh, it's just a scooter how hard can it be" blindly oblivious that safely riding a scooter is much more difficult than driving a car.
    Quite possibly. Another factor might be that in Bali the driver is on the other side of the cab from where the scooter rider is used to.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,745
    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    CatMan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is purging the military top brass to replace them with 'more compliant' individuals.

    I am curious about the motivation of any such individuals. I can see in the very short term career advancement, but in the next 5 or 10 years, unless the republic is overthrown and the insane clown and his posse remain in charge it's not going to end well for them

    How many of Hitler's top generals did well out of it...?

    Changing Joint Chiefs around the start of a presidential term isn’t, in itself, all that unusual.
    Which is not something you can say about the simultaneous dismissal of three Judge Advocates General.
    @maxkennerly.bsky.social‬

    Just look at these paragraphs from the AP story.

    Hegseth called Brown unqualified solely because he's Black. Then they fired him... and replaced him with a white guy so indisputably unqualified that he requires a Presidential waiver.

    This is what "merit" means to them.

    https://bsky.app/profile/maxkennerly.bsky.social/post/3liq7jc73ac2y
    Racism, sexism, homophobia will all become very apparent soon, sadly. The rights of anyone not white and straight will slowly be reduced - as has already become the case for women.

    That's what the illiberals want.
    The generals would not have been fired, had they been fervent admirers of Trump; expressed support for slavey; claimed that the 2020 election was stolen etc.
    Saying someone is a "DEI hire" is now an acceptable way of expressing racism
    No, it means you oppose racism - in this case reverse racism.
    That would be more believable if we weren’t seeing the Trump administration firing supposed “DEI hires” and then replacing them with complete incompetents, whose main qualifications are that they looked good on Fox News,
    As a matter of interest, has Trump appointed any minorities since his anti DEI campaign started?

    He’s nominated Mehmet Oz.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,166
    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Did anyone listen to Question Time this week?

    A somewhat interesting panel:

    On the panel are: former chief of the defence staff General Sir Nick Carter; Lesia Vasylenko, a Ukrainian MP; from the UK government, cabinet office minister Nick Thomas-Symonds MP; Conservative Sir Ben Wallace, who spent five years as secretary of state for defence; and a Trump campaign adviser, Jan Halper-Hayes.

    Nick Carter is the one in charge when the army's armour was reduced in around 2020. One of the things he comments on is "not enough tanks". :wink:

    Given how the Beeb dumbs down I wouldn’t have been surprised if it was Nick Carter from the Backstreet Boys.

    QT has been unwatchable, like Newsnight, for a long time now.
    I haven't watched it for at least 8 years. It's just clickbait politicians and celebs performing in front of thick audience members.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,445
    Fucksake England
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,155
    edited 5:14PM

    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    CatMan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is purging the military top brass to replace them with 'more compliant' individuals.

    I am curious about the motivation of any such individuals. I can see in the very short term career advancement, but in the next 5 or 10 years, unless the republic is overthrown and the insane clown and his posse remain in charge it's not going to end well for them

    How many of Hitler's top generals did well out of it...?

    Changing Joint Chiefs around the start of a presidential term isn’t, in itself, all that unusual.
    Which is not something you can say about the simultaneous dismissal of three Judge Advocates General.
    @maxkennerly.bsky.social‬

    Just look at these paragraphs from the AP story.

    Hegseth called Brown unqualified solely because he's Black. Then they fired him... and replaced him with a white guy so indisputably unqualified that he requires a Presidential waiver.

    This is what "merit" means to them.

    https://bsky.app/profile/maxkennerly.bsky.social/post/3liq7jc73ac2y
    Racism, sexism, homophobia will all become very apparent soon, sadly. The rights of anyone not white and straight will slowly be reduced - as has already become the case for women.

    That's what the illiberals want.
    The generals would not have been fired, had they been fervent admirers of Trump; expressed support for slavey; claimed that the 2020 election was stolen etc.
    Saying someone is a "DEI hire" is now an acceptable way of expressing racism
    No, it means you oppose racism - in this case reverse racism.
    That would be more believable if we weren’t seeing the Trump administration firing supposed “DEI hires” and then replacing them with complete incompetents, whose main qualifications are that they looked good on Fox News,
    As a matter of interest, has Trump appointed any minorities since his anti DEI campaign started?

    He’s nominated Mehmet Oz.
    Good pick…

    Dr. Oz: The uninsured “don’t have the right to health,” but should be given “a way of crawling back out of the abyss” with “15-minute physicals” provided by the government “in a festival like setting.”
    https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1892942735360880819
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,957
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Hmm

    “The wheel weaves as the wheel wills”

    The wheel of my car, not so much. After a great day yesterday someone totalled my beloved car today by driving into the side of it.

    It's never dull around here.

    As long as you’re ok. Cars can be replaced. @DavidL’s not so much.
    Well yes, but I made the mistake of asking Webuyanycar what they thought my car was worth. A hell of a lot less than it was worth to me being the short answer.
    Imagine the fun you’ll have prosecuting the driver.

    One time, some crooks cloned the credit card of the head of the FBI Electronic Crime division….
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 391
    Leon said:

    Fucksake England

    Is it dark?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,445
    Battlebus said:

    Leon said:

    Fucksake England

    Is it dark?
    Beyond dark

    I am so bored of clueless England teams that can only kick
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 391
    I'll have to support my Celtic brethren (and those by 'adoption') here but I have my doubts they'll be able to hold out for the full match.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,369
    maxh said:

    ...

    kle4 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    A good slice of this board thinks posters are being hysterical when they point out that politicians who support the AfD, Putin, use Nazi language and make Nazi salutes might err, be a bit Nazi.
    It’s not a particularly helpful term - because it immediately makes people think about toothbrush-moustaches and German dictators.

    It’s the same with “fascist”. The left abused the terms for so long to try and demonise their moderate opponents that they no longer have the power to shock.



    Thank goodness we have the right’s measured use of commie, Trot and Stalinist as an example of restraint.
    For some reason Stalinist doesn't seem to be as common a derogatory label as the others in my experience. Is that because people associate Stalin and communism more strongly, or because Trotskyite groups were more prominent in the West among loony marxist groups?

    (I'm assuming here there are non-loony marxist groups, which is perhaps over generous, like assuming there were moderate BNP branches).
    I think anyone with half a brain is Marxist to some extent. Marx wrote widely and compellingly on many subjects, just as eg Hayek did.

    It's the political ideologies resulting from Marxist thought that are so damaging, not least the Communist manifesto, which understandably discredits Marx's other work.
    Anyone that is marxist definitely has half a brain
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,166
    Pagan2 said:

    maxh said:

    ...

    kle4 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    A good slice of this board thinks posters are being hysterical when they point out that politicians who support the AfD, Putin, use Nazi language and make Nazi salutes might err, be a bit Nazi.
    It’s not a particularly helpful term - because it immediately makes people think about toothbrush-moustaches and German dictators.

    It’s the same with “fascist”. The left abused the terms for so long to try and demonise their moderate opponents that they no longer have the power to shock.



    Thank goodness we have the right’s measured use of commie, Trot and Stalinist as an example of restraint.
    For some reason Stalinist doesn't seem to be as common a derogatory label as the others in my experience. Is that because people associate Stalin and communism more strongly, or because Trotskyite groups were more prominent in the West among loony marxist groups?

    (I'm assuming here there are non-loony marxist groups, which is perhaps over generous, like assuming there were moderate BNP branches).
    I think anyone with half a brain is Marxist to some extent. Marx wrote widely and compellingly on many subjects, just as eg Hayek did.

    It's the political ideologies resulting from Marxist thought that are so damaging, not least the Communist manifesto, which understandably discredits Marx's other work.
    Anyone that is marxist definitely has half a brain
    Maxh the Marxist?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,836
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    CatMan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is purging the military top brass to replace them with 'more compliant' individuals.

    I am curious about the motivation of any such individuals. I can see in the very short term career advancement, but in the next 5 or 10 years, unless the republic is overthrown and the insane clown and his posse remain in charge it's not going to end well for them

    How many of Hitler's top generals did well out of it...?

    Changing Joint Chiefs around the start of a presidential term isn’t, in itself, all that unusual.
    Which is not something you can say about the simultaneous dismissal of three Judge Advocates General.
    @maxkennerly.bsky.social‬

    Just look at these paragraphs from the AP story.

    Hegseth called Brown unqualified solely because he's Black. Then they fired him... and replaced him with a white guy so indisputably unqualified that he requires a Presidential waiver.

    This is what "merit" means to them.

    https://bsky.app/profile/maxkennerly.bsky.social/post/3liq7jc73ac2y
    Racism, sexism, homophobia will all become very apparent soon, sadly. The rights of anyone not white and straight will slowly be reduced - as has already become the case for women.

    That's what the illiberals want.
    The generals would not have been fired, had they been fervent admirers of Trump; expressed support for slavey; claimed that the 2020 election was stolen etc.
    Saying someone is a "DEI hire" is now an acceptable way of expressing racism
    No, it means you oppose racism - in this case reverse racism.
    That would be more believable if we weren’t seeing the Trump administration firing supposed “DEI hires” and then replacing them with complete incompetents, whose main qualifications are that they looked good on Fox News,
    As a matter of interest, has Trump appointed any minorities since his anti DEI campaign started?

    He’s nominated Mehmet Oz.
    Good pick…

    Dr. Oz: The uninsured “don’t have the right to health,” but should be given “a way of crawling back out of the abyss” with “15-minute physicals” provided by the government “in a festival like setting.”
    https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1892942735360880819
    I just noticed Trump's pick for Labor Secretary is one of 3 House Republicans who co-sponsored the Protecting the Right to Organize Act 2023
    Lori Chavez-DeRemer
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,166
    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    CatMan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is purging the military top brass to replace them with 'more compliant' individuals.

    I am curious about the motivation of any such individuals. I can see in the very short term career advancement, but in the next 5 or 10 years, unless the republic is overthrown and the insane clown and his posse remain in charge it's not going to end well for them

    How many of Hitler's top generals did well out of it...?

    Changing Joint Chiefs around the start of a presidential term isn’t, in itself, all that unusual.
    Which is not something you can say about the simultaneous dismissal of three Judge Advocates General.
    @maxkennerly.bsky.social‬

    Just look at these paragraphs from the AP story.

    Hegseth called Brown unqualified solely because he's Black. Then they fired him... and replaced him with a white guy so indisputably unqualified that he requires a Presidential waiver.

    This is what "merit" means to them.

    https://bsky.app/profile/maxkennerly.bsky.social/post/3liq7jc73ac2y
    Racism, sexism, homophobia will all become very apparent soon, sadly. The rights of anyone not white and straight will slowly be reduced - as has already become the case for women.

    That's what the illiberals want.
    The generals would not have been fired, had they been fervent admirers of Trump; expressed support for slavey; claimed that the 2020 election was stolen etc.
    Saying someone is a "DEI hire" is now an acceptable way of expressing racism
    No, it means you oppose racism - in this case reverse racism.
    That would be more believable if we weren’t seeing the Trump administration firing supposed “DEI hires” and then replacing them with complete incompetents, whose main qualifications are that they looked good on Fox News,
    As a matter of interest, has Trump appointed any minorities since his anti DEI campaign started?

    Musk?, leavette?,
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,648
    edited 5:31PM
    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    DougSeal said:

    Anyone got any tips for the German election? Seat totals etc?

    A CSU/CSU plurality seems a safe bet, as does the complete loss of FDP and fall in SPD support. The need to exclude the AFD probably points to a CDU-SPD coalition in the end, though a majority might be cobbled together with some of the small parties. The problem is essentially that if a CDU-SPD government is perceived to fail, the AFD will present themselves as the only substantial alternative. Germany doesn't usually do minority governments, which otherwise might be the best bet for the CDU/CSU.
    Watch out for the neo-nazi rampers - Musk, Putin, WilliamGlenn - subtracting the CSU total from the CDU/CSU total to make it look like the AfD came closer to winning.

    For those not familiar with the situation - the CSU is only in Bavaria, the CDU everywhere except Bavaria. They are 2 parties, but have a joint manifesto for the federal elections, and a joint Chancellor-candidate. The closest UK equivalent is the Scottish Green Party and English + Welsh Green Party being 2 parties - but you probably wouldn't separate the Scottish Green vote total from the English + Welsh Green vote total for your headline election results. Except of course Bavaria is a lot bigger than Scotland (13.4 million vs 5.4 million), and CDU/CSU are a lot bigger than the Green Parties of Britain.

    There's very little chance of a minority government for various reasons. Very likely Union+SPD, or if they don't have a majority Union+SPD+Greens. Small chance of Union+Greens if they have a majority. Very little chance of anything else.

    Anyone hoping for any significant rapid changes in German foreign policy are likely to be disappointed, though Merz may provide Taurus missiles once Chancellor (which might take a while), if that is even still relevant by then. Union+Greens would be the most likely option to offer more weapons to Ukraine.
    Merz, FWIW, has been much more outspoken about supporting Ukraine than has the feeble Scholz. Is that not likely to lead to some change ?
    A Merz win tomorrow will be a big shift in Germany. As well as being a hawk on Putin and a proponent of higher defence spending he is also an economic neoliberal and an advocate of privatisation and deregulation and cutting bureaucracy while also taking a harder line on immigration (in some respects like Trump and Musk there) and wants to privatise some social welfare schemes. In the past he even opposed the minimum wage and unfair dismissal laws and is a conservative Roman Catholic in his private life.

    Merz would likely be the most rightwing German Chancellor since WW2

    https://unherd.com/2025/02/will-merz-sell-germany-to-blackrock/
    Except the CDU/CSU will be a long way from a majority and any policies will need the agreement of at least one of the SPD and Greens.

    Also, people don't like him so he's not going to be able to push anything through on the back of any personal mandate or charisma.
    On current polls the CDU/CSU will win a landslide majority of constituency seats and get comfortably most seats once the PR list seats are added too. They will probably be around 10% ahead of the AfD, who are likely to be second and even harder line anti immigration than Merz is.

    The SPD and Greens are both heading for crushing defeat. If one of them forms a government with Merz they will be on probation, only there to provide a firewall to keep out the AfD. Merz will have a far bigger mandate than either of them and he can always hold out the threat of doing a deal with the AfD if they keep blocking his agenda.

    Many people didn't like Thatcher either but she got things done, Merz looks the closest thing Germany has had to a German Thatcher
    No, there will be coalition negotiations to agree a program. The idea that the SPD or Greens might agree to something like scrapping the minimum wage is pure fantasy. As is the idea that the CDU will use the threat of doing a deal with the AfD as leverage.

    You seem to be also unaware of the fact that opinion polls show the Greens likely to lose maybe 1 or 2 percent of the 14.7% they got last time, so they are unlikely to be heading for a 'crushing defeat'.

    There is no concept of being 'on probation' in German coalitions.

    Thatcher is another country and another century so is completely irrelevant, so I'll only point out that she had majorities in parliament, whereas CDU/CSU will only get around a third of the seats, how many constituencies they win is also pretty irrelevant.
    If Merz was running in a FPTP country like Thatcher was he would of course be heading for a landslide majority in the German Parliament tomorrow and wouldn't need a coalition partner.

    The combined SPD and Green voteshare will be around 27% tomorrow, 13% down on the 40% they got combined in 2021. So Merz's mandate will be clear
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,830

    Jonathan said:

    What the betting that Trump demands Starmer hand over the Falklands to his Argentinian pal?

    Milei isn't demanding them. His position is that the wishes of the people living there should be respected.
    My suggestion would be that once we get a decent Government, we jointly exploit the oil wealth that lies under the Falklands with Argentina. Given that to do that we will presumably need their help/assent in some form anyway. We should do that before someone else gets dollar signs and decides to stir up the Argentinians for another go.

    It would be good finally to put to bed the troubles of the past, and for Argentina to relinquish its claims fully. Even if we need to build them another group of islands and call it Las Malvinas.
    Joint development doesn't fly on the islands.
    The oil and gas near the Falklands would be extremely expensive to get to. Deep water and some of the worst weather in the world.

    There is a reason that very little has been done there.

    None of it is in Argentine territorial waters. It’s all in the Falklands economic zone or international waters.
    Nevertheless, they have an interest in the region, and as long as the sovereignty and way of life of the Falkland Islands is unaffected, I don't really see the issue with jointly exploiting these resources. I absolutely don't see that we can do this by ourselves without this raising its ugly head in Argentina again, and therefore attracting bigger sharks into the water to 'help' Argentina press its claim. Far better to do a joint project and avoid any issues from the start.
    The bigger issue is the supply base to support the operations. They can't get one in Argentina. Uruguay would be antagonising Argentina if they agreed. Brazil are not inclined to piss off Argentina (although I have been told that at non-Governmental parties are prepared to offer it).

    They have even looked at using a base in South Africa. Having been across those waters in a force 12, I wouldn't fancy that contract! (I have had two different house guests recently, both have been involved in the development of Falklands hydrocarbons; and a separate meeting with a third company too.
    Fuck Uruguay. What are they going to do about it?
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,960

    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    CatMan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is purging the military top brass to replace them with 'more compliant' individuals.

    I am curious about the motivation of any such individuals. I can see in the very short term career advancement, but in the next 5 or 10 years, unless the republic is overthrown and the insane clown and his posse remain in charge it's not going to end well for them

    How many of Hitler's top generals did well out of it...?

    Changing Joint Chiefs around the start of a presidential term isn’t, in itself, all that unusual.
    Which is not something you can say about the simultaneous dismissal of three Judge Advocates General.
    @maxkennerly.bsky.social‬

    Just look at these paragraphs from the AP story.

    Hegseth called Brown unqualified solely because he's Black. Then they fired him... and replaced him with a white guy so indisputably unqualified that he requires a Presidential waiver.

    This is what "merit" means to them.

    https://bsky.app/profile/maxkennerly.bsky.social/post/3liq7jc73ac2y
    Racism, sexism, homophobia will all become very apparent soon, sadly. The rights of anyone not white and straight will slowly be reduced - as has already become the case for women.

    That's what the illiberals want.
    The generals would not have been fired, had they been fervent admirers of Trump; expressed support for slavey; claimed that the 2020 election was stolen etc.
    Saying someone is a "DEI hire" is now an acceptable way of expressing racism
    No, it means you oppose racism - in this case reverse racism.
    That would be more believable if we weren’t seeing the Trump administration firing supposed “DEI hires” and then replacing them with complete incompetents, whose main qualifications are that they looked good on Fox News,
    As a matter of interest, has Trump appointed any minorities since his anti DEI campaign started?

    He’s nominated Mehmet Oz.
    Being a moron doesn't count.
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