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PB Predictions Competition 2025 – The Entries – politicalbetting.com

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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,905
    Jonathan said:

    There’s a big market in the UK for political leaders that safely make politics go away and dampen revolutionary excitement. The genius of the Tories historically was to corner that market whilst sneaking in a bit of right wing ideology under the radar . For some reason they have forgotten that winning formula.

    Yes, that's basically what we do. Conservatism is essentially an aversion to change. Or more accurately, a preference for gradual considered change rather than radical reform.

    The quid pro quo is that socially people don't much like change anyway, and find it unsettling, and that stability allows prosperity to take root.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,007

    NEW THREAD

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,453

    If you are heading up north today, forget it.

    The third day of the Darlington beer festival has been cancelled.

    They've run out of beer.

    Makes you proud to be British.

    Beer blunder as Darlington CAMRA Beer Festival runs dry
    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/24956095.beer-blunder-darlington-camra-beer-festival-runs-dry/

    They couldn't organise a piss-up in a...oh
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,623
    "The second mineral deal sent to Ukraine by the US appears to be even more extreme then the first one.
    In leaked documents the mineral deal now reportedly includes Ukrainian Oil and Gas exports, where Ukraine will have to contribute to a US led fund till 500 billion is reached."

    https://x.com/WarMonitor3

    it is not clear what the US will do in return for this...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,453
    ydoethur said:

    Technological progress means that we don’t need to deal with floppies any more.

    That and viagra.

    Although apparently Elon Musk still has some problems in this regard...
    A multi-billionaire who can't get an erection. No wonder he's on drugs all the time.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,170

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    British conservatives might note how the CSU/CDU have recovered (tbc) despite having a bad record and without merging or doing a deal with their hard right rival.

    Step one, find a credible leader. Lose the obsession with the untested next generation, perhaps go back to go forward.

    Always fascinated by the confidence with with left-leaning posters pontificate about the way forward for Conservatives.

    Given the collapse in the fortunes of the Labour party since winning the elections, it might be worth thinking about how Labour respond to the populism of Farage (who is far from hard right).

    The Conservatives need to stand for something, like small government, personal responsibility, fiscal rectitude, rather than just talking about it - whilst governing from the centre left - as they did in the past few years.

    Just spent a few days with 100 or so colleagues. What was clear was the difference of opinion between those who live/work in the Southern cities ('Farage hasn't got a hope of winning', 'People will come around to Starmer') vs those who live in the towns/country/midlands-north ('I fear next PM will be Farage in a coalition', 'Starmer will be forgotten by history when he suffers a huge defeat next time').

    I am always fascinated by people who have so many more political conversations than I do out in the real world. I almost never hear anyone on buses, in supermarket queues or in pubs talking about politics. It's a subject I have always actively tried to avoid when with work colleagues.

    I'm very lucky; I see the same 100 or so colleagues every 6 weeks or so in a different city around the UK or Europe. Most of us are friends (to the level of invites to weddings, parties, funerals etc), and we usually dine in groups that change, slightly. I've known most of them for at least a decade, some for a quarter of a century. If it wasn't my job it would be my hobby; and the people are almost all absolutely lovely. Cheque is still the main payment method, taking books 'on approval' for several weeks is the second most prevalent.

    On public transport it is definitely declined since headphones have become de rigeur - but as I don't drive I still hear more than others, I suspect.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,453

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    British conservatives might note how the CSU/CDU have recovered (tbc) despite having a bad record and without merging or doing a deal with their hard right rival.

    Step one, find a credible leader. Lose the obsession with the untested next generation, perhaps go back to go forward.

    Always fascinated by the confidence with with left-leaning posters pontificate about the way forward for Conservatives.

    Given the collapse in the fortunes of the Labour party since winning the elections, it might be worth thinking about how Labour respond to the populism of Farage (who is far from hard right).

    The Conservatives need to stand for something, like small government, personal responsibility, fiscal rectitude, rather than just talking about it - whilst governing from the centre left - as they did in the past few years.

    Just spent a few days with 100 or so colleagues. What was clear was the difference of opinion between those who live/work in the Southern cities ('Farage hasn't got a hope of winning', 'People will come around to Starmer') vs those who live in the towns/country/midlands-north ('I fear next PM will be Farage in a coalition', 'Starmer will be forgotten by history when he suffers a huge defeat next time').

    I am always fascinated by people who have so many more political conversations than I do out in the real world. I almost never hear anyone on buses, in supermarket queues or in pubs talking about politics. It's a subject I have always actively tried to avoid when with work colleagues.

    As I may have mentioned ( :) ) I commute a lot during the week. This involves lengthy taxi and train journeys. Suffice to say some of the taxi drivers are very keen to talk politics... :(
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