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PB Predictions Competition 2025 – The Entries – politicalbetting.com

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,493
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

    Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

    While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
    I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

    Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
    Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.
    Interesting. I live in a bubble where people seem to compete to show their disdain for Trump. The closest I find to someone making the alternative case is on here. It instinctively makes me feel that it just can't be that simple, I suppose I am a contrarian of sorts.

    So, it seems to me the case can be made that Trump/Vance are just saying more bluntly and clearly which has always been true. The US will act in their self interest. The fact we wanted to delude ourselves for many years to give us a comfort blanket was on us, not them.

    I think a case can also be made that the Lawfare of the previous administration was grossly irresponsible and a dangerous precedent. Trump should have been treated the same as everyone else before the law, he should not have been prosecuted for things that others doing the same would not have been prosecuted for.

    I can sort of understand why the US might regard the Ukraine as a European problem rather than theirs.

    Vance may be right about the excessive regulation of the EU in things like AI and data protection (I have sympathy with pretty much anyone criticising the bureaucratic and pointless mess of GDPR, for example).

    He and even Musk may be right that the blob has simply grown out of control, more interested in feeding itself than serving the country (I have expressed similar, if more restrained views about our own country). Attacking it with callipers simply won't do, a chainsaw is needed.

    I'm running out of arguments at this point but does anyone have any more? What is Trump & Co right about? Someone famous (but I am terrible with names) said if you didn't understand your opponents case then you don't even understand your own, or something like that.

    The most stupid thing about the lawfare against Trump was that it was for the small stuff.

    He should have been prosecuted for the Jan 6th stuff. Taking more than 4 years to get a case to court, when the crime was committed on live TV, is moronic. The Process Stare need for 1 million pieces of paper is bullshit - a couple of the most serious charges, collect the evidence, keep it simple
    A key lesson for all prosecutors everywhere.
    Once they appointed Jack Smith he seemed to move fairly quickly for it, but it took ages to appoint him.

    The state pretended Trump would go away.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,958
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

    Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

    While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
    I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

    Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
    Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.
    Interesting. I live in a bubble where people seem to compete to show their disdain for Trump. The closest I find to someone making the alternative case is on here. It instinctively makes me feel that it just can't be that simple, I suppose I am a contrarian of sorts.

    So, it seems to me the case can be made that Trump/Vance are just saying more bluntly and clearly which has always been true. The US will act in their self interest. The fact we wanted to delude ourselves for many years to give us a comfort blanket was on us, not them.

    I think a case can also be made that the Lawfare of the previous administration was grossly irresponsible and a dangerous precedent. Trump should have been treated the same as everyone else before the law, he should not have been prosecuted for things that others doing the same would not have been prosecuted for.

    I can sort of understand why the US might regard the Ukraine as a European problem rather than theirs.

    Vance may be right about the excessive regulation of the EU in things like AI and data protection (I have sympathy with pretty much anyone criticising the bureaucratic and pointless mess of GDPR, for example).

    He and even Musk may be right that the blob has simply grown out of control, more interested in feeding itself than serving the country (I have expressed similar, if more restrained views about our own country). Attacking it with callipers simply won't do, a chainsaw is needed.

    I'm running out of arguments at this point but does anyone have any more? What is Trump & Co right about? Someone famous (but I am terrible with names) said if you didn't understand your opponents case then you don't even understand your own, or something like that.

    The most stupid thing about the lawfare against Trump was that it was for the small stuff.

    He should have been prosecuted for the Jan 6th stuff. Taking more than 4 years to get a case to court, when the crime was committed on live TV, is moronic. The Process Stare need for 1 million pieces of paper is bullshit - a couple of the most serious charges, collect the evidence, keep it simple
    A key lesson for all prosecutors everywhere.
    I get the whole “but I really enjoy the details, plus I can build my own law firm on the billable.”

    But Jesus wept, get the bad guy in the Big House for 15 years first. *Then* polish your favourite personal bits with decade long legal stuff.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,450
    Dopermean said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

    Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

    While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
    I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

    Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
    Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.
    Interesting. I live in a bubble where people seem to compete to show their disdain for Trump. The closest I find to someone making the alternative case is on here. It instinctively makes me feel that it just can't be that simple, I suppose I am a contrarian of sorts.

    So, it seems to me the case can be made that Trump/Vance are just saying more bluntly and clearly which has always been true. The US will act in their self interest. The fact we wanted to delude ourselves for many years to give us a comfort blanket was on us, not them.

    I think a case can also be made that the Lawfare of the previous administration was grossly irresponsible and a dangerous precedent. Trump should have been treated the same as everyone else before the law, he should not have been prosecuted for things that others doing the same would not have been prosecuted for.

    I can sort of understand why the US might regard the Ukraine as a European problem rather than theirs.

    Vance may be right about the excessive regulation of the EU in things like AI and data protection (I have sympathy with pretty much anyone criticising the bureaucratic and pointless mess of GDPR, for example).

    He and even Musk may be right that the blob has simply grown out of control, more interested in feeding itself than serving the country (I have expressed similar, if more restrained views about our own country). Attacking it with callipers simply won't do, a chainsaw is needed.

    I'm running out of arguments at this point but does anyone have any more? What is Trump & Co right about? Someone famous (but I am terrible with names) said if you didn't understand your opponents case then you don't even understand your own, or something like that.

    The most stupid thing about the lawfare against Trump was that it was for the small stuff.

    He should have been prosecuted for the Jan 6th stuff. Taking more than 4 years to get a case to court, when the crime was committed on live TV, is moronic. The Process Stare need for 1 million pieces of paper is bullshit - a couple of the most serious charges, collect the evidence, keep it simple
    A key lesson for all prosecutors everywhere.
    Is it not just the US legal system is useless? Capable of prosecuting little people but not robust enough to prosecute the powerful.
    Is it that the "get Al Capone for tax evasion" meme is still strong in prosecutorial circles even nearly a century later?
  • One of the hostages just being handed over by Hamas; Avera Mengistu: An Ethiopian-Israeli, Mengistu was captured by Hamas in 2014.
  • Dopermean said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

    Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

    While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
    I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

    Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
    Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.
    Interesting. I live in a bubble where people seem to compete to show their disdain for Trump. The closest I find to someone making the alternative case is on here. It instinctively makes me feel that it just can't be that simple, I suppose I am a contrarian of sorts.

    So, it seems to me the case can be made that Trump/Vance are just saying more bluntly and clearly which has always been true. The US will act in their self interest. The fact we wanted to delude ourselves for many years to give us a comfort blanket was on us, not them.

    I think a case can also be made that the Lawfare of the previous administration was grossly irresponsible and a dangerous precedent. Trump should have been treated the same as everyone else before the law, he should not have been prosecuted for things that others doing the same would not have been prosecuted for.

    I can sort of understand why the US might regard the Ukraine as a European problem rather than theirs.

    Vance may be right about the excessive regulation of the EU in things like AI and data protection (I have sympathy with pretty much anyone criticising the bureaucratic and pointless mess of GDPR, for example).

    He and even Musk may be right that the blob has simply grown out of control, more interested in feeding itself than serving the country (I have expressed similar, if more restrained views about our own country). Attacking it with callipers simply won't do, a chainsaw is needed.

    I'm running out of arguments at this point but does anyone have any more? What is Trump & Co right about? Someone famous (but I am terrible with names) said if you didn't understand your opponents case then you don't even understand your own, or something like that.

    The most stupid thing about the lawfare against Trump was that it was for the small stuff.

    He should have been prosecuted for the Jan 6th stuff. Taking more than 4 years to get a case to court, when the crime was committed on live TV, is moronic. The Process Stare need for 1 million pieces of paper is bullshit - a couple of the most serious charges, collect the evidence, keep it simple
    A key lesson for all prosecutors everywhere.
    Is it not just the US legal system is useless? Capable of prosecuting little people but not robust enough to prosecute the powerful.
    After all, it got to the Senate, which really ought to have been sufficient. But there was a sudden lack of backbones on the red side. I can sympathise, but can't respect.

    Maybe the "democratic accountability of judges" that some think is just the trick isn't all it's cracked up to be.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652
    edited February 22
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all from a thundery Singapore :)

    Fair to say the Chinese “live fire” exercises in the Tasman have alarmed both Australia and New Zealand and both Governments are using the incident as justification to increase defence spending.

    In truth, the Chinese were doing nothing wrong as they were in international waters and NZ Defence Minister Judith Collin’s admitted both Australia and New Zealand had done the same in the South China Sea but this projection of power by Beijing reminds us the new global disorder is multi-faceted.

    With Beijing diplomatically very active in the Southwest Pacific currently, both Canberra and Wellington are feeling fragile given the sense Washington is no longer the ally it was and with the European powers coming to terms with the new US-Russian rapprochement and its implications.

    Though the US is still focused on contacting China even if less so Russia
    Rather the US is focused on containing China, hence its tariffs on Chinese imports and the Trump administration proposing to officially recognise Taiwan but the Trump White House sees Putin's Russia as less of a threat and even an ally for its white anti woke nationalism
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,439
    edited February 22
    The Economist this week is pretty uncheery. Summary: Europe alone. Needs single envoy to speak for it with USA and Russia. France and UK need to agree Europe's nuclear shield. Defence spending to rise to 4-5%, an extra 300bn Euros. Cut welfare. This is "Europe's worst nightmare".
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,445
    nico67 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

    Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

    While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
    I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

    Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
    Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.
    It’s very difficult and much harder if it’s family .
    Indeed. One of my close family relies is a pb type midwit centrist dad. We all strive hard not to shun him
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Billbrowder

    This is outrageous. To coerce Ukraine to sign over its natural resources, Elon Musk is threatening to cut off Starlink. I guess the appropriate response from the EU would be to ban sale of Tesla’s if he does that

    https://x.com/Billbrowder/status/1893217423471337854

    We can buy Chinese EVs instead.

    But seriously, it feels like all niceties are being dropped for thuggish exercises of power. That has to be worrying, the niceties kept the world a little safer.
    Even as Team Trump are revealed as rottweilers, we must not mistake the Chinese government for pussycats. No students have been run over by tanks in Times Square.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,539
    algarkirk said:

    The Economist this week is pretty uncheery. Summary: Europe alone. Needs single envoy to speak for it with USA and Russia. France and UK need to agree Europe's nuclear shield. Defence spending to rise to 4-5%, an extra 300bn Euros. Cut welfare. This is "Europe's worst nightmare".

    Yup, there's no more room for higher taxes, it has to come out of welfare. We pay too many people too much money to sit at home and do nothing.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,890
    My WhatsApp has two groups of friends which is basically wall to wall Vance/Trump chat, like it is here.

    But, similar demographic: male, middle-aged, highly educated, politically interested etc.

    I am quite literally bored. I only need to say they're twats about 8 times, not 93,456 times a day.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,445
    algarkirk said:

    The Economist this week is pretty uncheery. Summary: Europe alone. Needs single envoy to speak for it with USA and Russia. France and UK need to agree Europe's nuclear shield. Defence spending to rise to 4-5%, an extra 300bn Euros. Cut welfare. This is "Europe's worst nightmare".

    Zero migration. End it
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,890
    algarkirk said:

    The Economist this week is pretty uncheery. Summary: Europe alone. Needs single envoy to speak for it with USA and Russia. France and UK need to agree Europe's nuclear shield. Defence spending to rise to 4-5%, an extra 300bn Euros. Cut welfare. This is "Europe's worst nightmare".

    Last time I calculated it (based on my SDR I laid out a few days ago) I got to a 3.4% of GDP required - essentially returning our capability to an upgraded version of what we had in the early-mid 1990s.

    It should have two targets (for 2030 and 2035) to restore full capability - manpower rises can probably be a little bit faster - with no HMT can-kicking, because that will be noticed by our adversaries.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652
    edited February 22
    MaxPB said:

    algarkirk said:

    The Economist this week is pretty uncheery. Summary: Europe alone. Needs single envoy to speak for it with USA and Russia. France and UK need to agree Europe's nuclear shield. Defence spending to rise to 4-5%, an extra 300bn Euros. Cut welfare. This is "Europe's worst nightmare".

    Yup, there's no more room for higher taxes, it has to come out of welfare. We pay too many people too much money to sit at home and do nothing.
    A new Merz led German government after the German election tomorrow may make a shift to cut welfare and increase defence as might Meloni's Italy and Poland and even Macron and Bayrou's France, though Melenchon's group will try and block it.

    The UK Labour government certainly won't to any significant degree
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,439
    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

    Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

    While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
    I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

    Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
    Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.
    Interesting. I live in a bubble where people seem to compete to show their disdain for Trump. The closest I find to someone making the alternative case is on here. It instinctively makes me feel that it just can't be that simple, I suppose I am a contrarian of sorts.

    So, it seems to me the case can be made that Trump/Vance are just saying more bluntly and clearly which has always been true. The US will act in their self interest. The fact we wanted to delude ourselves for many years to give us a comfort blanket was on us, not them.

    I think a case can also be made that the Lawfare of the previous administration was grossly irresponsible and a dangerous precedent. Trump should have been treated the same as everyone else before the law, he should not have been prosecuted for things that others doing the same would not have been prosecuted for.

    I can sort of understand why the US might regard the Ukraine as a European problem rather than theirs.

    Vance may be right about the excessive regulation of the EU in things like AI and data protection (I have sympathy with pretty much anyone criticising the bureaucratic and pointless mess of GDPR, for example).

    He and even Musk may be right that the blob has simply grown out of control, more interested in feeding itself than serving the country (I have expressed similar, if more restrained views about our own country). Attacking it with callipers simply won't do, a chainsaw is needed.

    I'm running out of arguments at this point but does anyone have any more? What is Trump & Co right about? Someone famous (but I am terrible with names) said if you didn't understand your opponents case then you don't even understand your own, or something like that.

    I go along with this to some extent. However proportionality needs to apply. If Trump wants to undo NATO then this should be done in a way and timescale that allows and compels consideration of Europe and Canada's way forward.

    Yes, I agree Europe has been at fault too.

    Trump's approach makes good sense if, and only if, you decide that the world is and should be self interested well armed mercantileist power blocs with no particular interest in rights, democracy or the prosperity of others. The blocs are: Americas, Russia and the east, China, India, Rest of the West.

    However, one word shows Trump's world is more complex: Israel.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,497
    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,188
    Scott_xP said:

    FF43 said:

    When the establishment reasserts itself in America, as it will eventually do, will they attempt to undo the Trump damage or will the end state just a be a continuation of America's reduced state?

    Trump intends to destroy enough of the state that it can never be reassembled in its current form

    EDIT: When I say Trump, I don't mean the man himself. I don't think he understands the things that are being done in his name. I mean the guys behind the curtain.
    That's precisely the point. It's Trump's Cultural Revolution. The whole point is to smash the old ways in order to further his cult of personality and make it impossible to go back to the old ways.

    It worked short term for Mao too, but 20 years later it was full on capitalism for China.

    I wonder who will be Trump's Deng?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,085
    MaxPB said:

    algarkirk said:

    The Economist this week is pretty uncheery. Summary: Europe alone. Needs single envoy to speak for it with USA and Russia. France and UK need to agree Europe's nuclear shield. Defence spending to rise to 4-5%, an extra 300bn Euros. Cut welfare. This is "Europe's worst nightmare".

    Yup, there's no more room for higher taxes, it has to come out of welfare. We pay too many people too much money to sit at home and do nothing.
    Problems are opportunities.

    At least rich world countries now know, there is nobody coming to the rescue, and guns have to come before butter, moving forward.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all from a thundery Singapore :)

    Fair to say the Chinese “live fire” exercises in the Tasman have alarmed both Australia and New Zealand and both Governments are using the incident as justification to increase defence spending.

    In truth, the Chinese were doing nothing wrong as they were in international waters and NZ Defence Minister Judith Collin’s admitted both Australia and New Zealand had done the same in the South China Sea but this projection of power by Beijing reminds us the new global disorder is multi-faceted.

    With Beijing diplomatically very active in the Southwest Pacific currently, both Canberra and Wellington are feeling fragile given the sense Washington is no longer the ally it was and with the European powers coming to terms with the new US-Russian rapprochement and its implications.

    Though the US is still focused on contacting China even if less so Russia
    Rather the US is focused on containing China, hence its tariffs on Chinese imports and the Trump administration proposing to officially recognise Taiwan but the Trump White House sees Putin's Russia as less of a threat and even an ally for its white anti woke nationalism
    "China says Trump admin's change to U.S. fact sheet on Taiwan "further damaging" regional peace - CBS News" https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-us-taiwan-trump-change-fact-sheet-damaging-regional-peace/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652
    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

    Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

    While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
    I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

    Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
    Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.
    Interesting. I live in a bubble where people seem to compete to show their disdain for Trump. The closest I find to someone making the alternative case is on here. It instinctively makes me feel that it just can't be that simple, I suppose I am a contrarian of sorts.

    So, it seems to me the case can be made that Trump/Vance are just saying more bluntly and clearly which has always been true. The US will act in their self interest. The fact we wanted to delude ourselves for many years to give us a comfort blanket was on us, not them.

    I think a case can also be made that the Lawfare of the previous administration was grossly irresponsible and a dangerous precedent. Trump should have been treated the same as everyone else before the law, he should not have been prosecuted for things that others doing the same would not have been prosecuted for.

    I can sort of understand why the US might regard the Ukraine as a European problem rather than theirs.

    Vance may be right about the excessive regulation of the EU in things like AI and data protection (I have sympathy with pretty much anyone criticising the bureaucratic and pointless mess of GDPR, for example).

    He and even Musk may be right that the blob has simply grown out of control, more interested in feeding itself than serving the country (I have expressed similar, if more restrained views about our own country). Attacking it with callipers simply won't do, a chainsaw is needed.

    I'm running out of arguments at this point but does anyone have any more? What is Trump & Co right about? Someone famous (but I am terrible with names) said if you didn't understand your opponents case then you don't even understand your own, or something like that.

    I go along with this to some extent. However proportionality needs to apply. If Trump wants to undo NATO then this should be done in a way and timescale that allows and compels consideration of Europe and Canada's way forward.

    Yes, I agree Europe has been at fault too.

    Trump's approach makes good sense if, and only if, you decide that the world is and should be self interested well armed mercantileist power blocs with no particular interest in rights, democracy or the prosperity of others. The blocs are: Americas, Russia and the east, China, India, Rest of the West.

    However, one word shows Trump's world is more complex: Israel.
    In economic terms the EU is also a bloc as is Japan
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,923

    My WhatsApp has two groups of friends which is basically wall to wall Vance/Trump chat, like it is here.

    But, similar demographic: male, middle-aged, highly educated, politically interested etc.

    I am quite literally bored. I only need to say they're twats about 8 times, not 93,456 times a day.

    It’s such an alien concept to me to have loads of messages on WhatsApp groups from friends about politics. Our messages are largely the occasional question about if and where we are meeting for drinks and the odd amusing thing someone has seen.

    Same demographic and age group as yours by the sound of things.

    We very rarely even talk about politics when together as many more enjoyable things to talk about.

    Would be v pissed off if friends started messaging about politics yet alone talking about it on social occasions.

    Just put your WhatsApp groups on mute and ignore them.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,708

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    A good slice of this board thinks posters are being hysterical when they point out that politicians who support the AfD, Putin, use Nazi language and make Nazi salutes might err, be a bit Nazi.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,708

    algarkirk said:

    The Economist this week is pretty uncheery. Summary: Europe alone. Needs single envoy to speak for it with USA and Russia. France and UK need to agree Europe's nuclear shield. Defence spending to rise to 4-5%, an extra 300bn Euros. Cut welfare. This is "Europe's worst nightmare".

    Last time I calculated it (based on my SDR I laid out a few days ago) I got to a 3.4% of GDP required - essentially returning our capability to an upgraded version of what we had in the early-mid 1990s.

    It should have two targets (for 2030 and 2035) to restore full capability - manpower rises can probably be a little bit faster - with no HMT can-kicking, because that will be noticed by our adversaries.
    Our adversaries will fund Farage to power in the 2030s and he will side with the imperialists.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,085
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    algarkirk said:

    The Economist this week is pretty uncheery. Summary: Europe alone. Needs single envoy to speak for it with USA and Russia. France and UK need to agree Europe's nuclear shield. Defence spending to rise to 4-5%, an extra 300bn Euros. Cut welfare. This is "Europe's worst nightmare".

    Yup, there's no more room for higher taxes, it has to come out of welfare. We pay too many people too much money to sit at home and do nothing.
    A new Merz led German government after the German election tomorrow may make a shift to cut welfare and increase defence as might Meloni's Italy and Poland and even Macron and Bayrou's France, though Melenchon's group will try and block it.

    The UK Labour government certainly won't to any significant degree
    This could be the making of Starmer, who might end up being viewed similarly to Attlee.

    Could be.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,130
    Scott_xP said:

    FF43 said:

    When the establishment reasserts itself in America, as it will eventually do, will they attempt to undo the Trump damage or will the end state just a be a continuation of America's reduced state?

    Trump intends to destroy enough of the state that it can never be reassembled in its current form

    EDIT: When I say Trump, I don't mean the man himself. I don't think he understands the things that are being done in his name. I mean the guys behind the curtain.
    I've met some of the Project 2025 people. On the one hand, they are deadly serious about dismantling the Federal government. On the other hand, their plans are incoherent and poorly thought through. Most likely it will go tits up and there will be at least a partial restoration, but only after much damage has been done. But you can't rule out a scenario where the US unravels completely.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,923
    edited February 22
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    FF43 said:

    When the establishment reasserts itself in America, as it will eventually do, will they attempt to undo the Trump damage or will the end state just a be a continuation of America's reduced state?

    Trump intends to destroy enough of the state that it can never be reassembled in its current form

    EDIT: When I say Trump, I don't mean the man himself. I don't think he understands the things that are being done in his name. I mean the guys behind the curtain.
    That's precisely the point. It's Trump's Cultural Revolution. The whole point is to smash the old ways in order to further his cult of personality and make it impossible to go back to the old ways.

    It worked short term for Mao too, but 20 years later it was full on capitalism for China.

    I wonder who will be Trump's Deng?
    Surely Melania is Trump’s Wendy Deng, exotic foreign third wife marrying rich old right winger?

    I heard that Melania has been given some high paying project by Amazon since the election. It’s very sad that talented tv producers such as Melania don’t get their skills and abilities noticed until their vengeful and venal husbands get elected as President. Glad that wrong is righted now.

    Edit, apparently they have paid Melania $40m for the privilege of making a documentary about her. Money well,spent IMhO.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,085

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    A good slice of this board thinks posters are being hysterical when they point out that politicians who support the AfD, Putin, use Nazi language and make Nazi salutes might err, be a bit Nazi.
    Even if it's intended initially to wind people up, there probably comes a point when the act becomes the actor.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,130

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    A good slice of this board thinks posters are being hysterical when they point out that politicians who support the AfD, Putin, use Nazi language and make Nazi salutes might err, be a bit Nazi.
    When people show you who they are, believe them.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,085
    As to friendship circles, my own are (unsurprisingly) pretty right wing. I think that many (probably most), welcomed Trump's win, in 2016. Some are supporters of Reform.

    But, I can only think of two now, who welcomed Trump's win, in 2024. The invasion of Ukraine changed attitudes.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,239
    I see we have reached the 'fire Generals who might be suspect' stage of the take-over of America.

    Don't want anyone at the top who actually really believes they serve the Constitution and not the King do we?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,493

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Billbrowder

    This is outrageous. To coerce Ukraine to sign over its natural resources, Elon Musk is threatening to cut off Starlink. I guess the appropriate response from the EU would be to ban sale of Tesla’s if he does that

    https://x.com/Billbrowder/status/1893217423471337854

    We can buy Chinese EVs instead.

    But seriously, it feels like all niceties are being dropped for thuggish exercises of power. That has to be worrying, the niceties kept the world a little safer.
    Even as Team Trump are revealed as rottweilers, we must not mistake the Chinese government for pussycats. No students have been run over by tanks in Times Square.
    Im not saying they are worse than China. But that world relations are getting more dangerous and the USA dropping pretence and disrupting past alliances magnifies that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,493

    I see we have reached the 'fire Generals who might be suspect' stage of the take-over of America.

    Don't want anyone at the top who actually really believes they serve the Constitution and not the King do we?

    Like many people who are disloyal to others Trump demands total loyalty to himself.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,439

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    A good slice of this board thinks posters are being hysterical when they point out that politicians who support the AfD, Putin, use Nazi language and make Nazi salutes might err, be a bit Nazi.
    Indeed, on which topic Reform's dilemma could be a fork in the road. SFAICS its support base, as opposed to the powers on and behind the throne are the sort of people who watch reruns of Dad's Army, apart from those who find it a bit too intellectual.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,628
    Should you ditch your Tesla?

    If you hate his new politics or are simply fretting over your social cachet, what do you do? The new disdain is a bit unfair when all you were doing was your bit to save the planet. Perhaps there should be a buyback option for liberal drivers. Where once your friends applauded your early adoption of an EV, suddenly you are getting funny looks at your pilates class. You will need to develop some excuses. “I bought it when he was still a Democrat” is good. Or perhaps “I’m doing my bit to get him to Mars.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/5461a1d2-6841-4a93-9ddf-8927c5b2dbfc
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,890
    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    algarkirk said:

    The Economist this week is pretty uncheery. Summary: Europe alone. Needs single envoy to speak for it with USA and Russia. France and UK need to agree Europe's nuclear shield. Defence spending to rise to 4-5%, an extra 300bn Euros. Cut welfare. This is "Europe's worst nightmare".

    Yup, there's no more room for higher taxes, it has to come out of welfare. We pay too many people too much money to sit at home and do nothing.
    Problems are opportunities.

    At least rich world countries now know, there is nobody coming to the rescue, and guns have to come before butter, moving forward.
    I'm not sure rich countries have even been spending money on butter.

    Why should our economies be stultified to keep the retired in clover or grant a UBI to anyone who can pass a test?
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    I’ve just seen the Bannon one and it clearly was and it’s shocking, but not surprising.

    Any politician of any integrity who has any association with him will have to hastily change that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,890
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    algarkirk said:

    The Economist this week is pretty uncheery. Summary: Europe alone. Needs single envoy to speak for it with USA and Russia. France and UK need to agree Europe's nuclear shield. Defence spending to rise to 4-5%, an extra 300bn Euros. Cut welfare. This is "Europe's worst nightmare".

    Yup, there's no more room for higher taxes, it has to come out of welfare. We pay too many people too much money to sit at home and do nothing.
    A new Merz led German government after the German election tomorrow may make a shift to cut welfare and increase defence as might Meloni's Italy and Poland and even Macron and Bayrou's France, though Melenchon's group will try and block it.

    The UK Labour government certainly won't to any significant degree
    This could be the making of Starmer, who might end up being viewed similarly to Attlee.

    Could be.
    I'll believe it when I see it.

    Nevertheless it's that sort of leadership that would provide him with the best chance of a second term.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612
    algarkirk said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    A good slice of this board thinks posters are being hysterical when they point out that politicians who support the AfD, Putin, use Nazi language and make Nazi salutes might err, be a bit Nazi.
    Indeed, on which topic Reform's dilemma could be a fork in the road. SFAICS its support base, as opposed to the powers on and behind the throne are the sort of people who watch reruns of Dad's Army, apart from those who find it a bit too intellectual.
    WTf is wrong with watching re-runs of Dads Army. It’s an excellent, well written, well observed and characterised comedy accessible to all.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,085

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    algarkirk said:

    The Economist this week is pretty uncheery. Summary: Europe alone. Needs single envoy to speak for it with USA and Russia. France and UK need to agree Europe's nuclear shield. Defence spending to rise to 4-5%, an extra 300bn Euros. Cut welfare. This is "Europe's worst nightmare".

    Yup, there's no more room for higher taxes, it has to come out of welfare. We pay too many people too much money to sit at home and do nothing.
    A new Merz led German government after the German election tomorrow may make a shift to cut welfare and increase defence as might Meloni's Italy and Poland and even Macron and Bayrou's France, though Melenchon's group will try and block it.

    The UK Labour government certainly won't to any significant degree
    This could be the making of Starmer, who might end up being viewed similarly to Attlee.

    Could be.
    I'll believe it when I see it.

    Nevertheless it's that sort of leadership that would provide him with the best chance of a second term.
    Even if it does not, it's better to be remembered in history as someone who did the right thing, rather than as someone who put their head in the sand.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,988
    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

    Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

    While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
    I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

    Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
    Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.
    Interesting. I live in a bubble where people seem to compete to show their disdain for Trump. The closest I find to someone making the alternative case is on here. It instinctively makes me feel that it just can't be that simple, I suppose I am a contrarian of sorts.

    So, it seems to me the case can be made that Trump/Vance are just saying more bluntly and clearly which has always been true. The US will act in their self interest. The fact we wanted to delude ourselves for many years to give us a comfort blanket was on us, not them.

    I think a case can also be made that the Lawfare of the previous administration was grossly irresponsible and a dangerous precedent. Trump should have been treated the same as everyone else before the law, he should not have been prosecuted for things that others doing the same would not have been prosecuted for.

    I can sort of understand why the US might regard the Ukraine as a European problem rather than theirs.

    Vance may be right about the excessive regulation of the EU in things like AI and data protection (I have sympathy with pretty much anyone criticising the bureaucratic and pointless mess of GDPR, for example).

    He and even Musk may be right that the blob has simply grown out of control, more interested in feeding itself than serving the country (I have expressed similar, if more restrained views about our own country). Attacking it with callipers simply won't do, a chainsaw is needed.

    I'm running out of arguments at this point but does anyone have any more? What is Trump & Co right about? Someone famous (but I am terrible with names) said if you didn't understand your opponents case then you don't even understand your own, or something like that.

    I go along with this to some extent. However proportionality needs to apply. If Trump wants to undo NATO then this should be done in a way and timescale that allows and compels consideration of Europe and Canada's way forward.

    Yes, I agree Europe has been at fault too.

    Trump's approach makes good sense if, and only if, you decide that the world is and should be self interested well armed mercantileist power blocs with no particular
    interest in rights, democracy or the prosperity of others. The blocs are: Americas, Russia and the east, China, India, Rest of the West.

    However, one word shows Trump's world is more complex: Israel.
    Europe would be one of those blocs as well.

    Thiel (and hence Vance) has been incredibly influenced by Huntington’s Clash of Civilisations. It’s a bit dated now but worth reading / rereading

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Clash-Civilizations-Remaking-World-Order/dp/074323149X/ref=asc_df_074323149X?mcid=0182a8178dbe37a58b9a6378a7afcc57&th=1&psc=1&tag=googshopuk-21&linkCode=df0&hvadid=697203176766&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=2899728674144262350&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=m&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9045953&hvtargid=pla-525415252688&psc=1&gad_source=1
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,156
    FF43 said:

    Should you ditch your Tesla?

    If you hate his new politics or are simply fretting over your social cachet, what do you do? The new disdain is a bit unfair when all you were doing was your bit to save the planet. Perhaps there should be a buyback option for liberal drivers. Where once your friends applauded your early adoption of an EV, suddenly you are getting funny looks at your pilates class. You will need to develop some excuses. “I bought it when he was still a Democrat” is good. Or perhaps “I’m doing my bit to get him to Mars.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/5461a1d2-6841-4a93-9ddf-8927c5b2dbfc

    Who cares ?
    Anyone who buys a car to express their personality is a fool anyway.

    A boycott is one thing, but selling a car just because ? Nah.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,890
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    algarkirk said:

    The Economist this week is pretty uncheery. Summary: Europe alone. Needs single envoy to speak for it with USA and Russia. France and UK need to agree Europe's nuclear shield. Defence spending to rise to 4-5%, an extra 300bn Euros. Cut welfare. This is "Europe's worst nightmare".

    Yup, there's no more room for higher taxes, it has to come out of welfare. We pay too many people too much money to sit at home and do nothing.
    A new Merz led German government after the German election tomorrow may make a shift to cut welfare and increase defence as might Meloni's Italy and Poland and even Macron and Bayrou's France, though Melenchon's group will try and block it.

    The UK Labour government certainly won't to any significant degree
    This could be the making of Starmer, who might end up being viewed similarly to Attlee.

    Could be.
    I'll believe it when I see it.

    Nevertheless it's that sort of leadership that would provide him with the best chance of a second term.
    Even if it does not, it's better to be remembered in history as someone who did the right thing, rather than as someone who put their head in the sand.
    My best guess is that Starmer does what he always does: reacts to a trend and retriangulates his position.

    I doubt we'll see brave and bold leadership, but I'll be delighted if we do.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,628
    edited February 22
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    FF43 said:

    When the establishment reasserts itself in America, as it will eventually do, will they attempt to undo the Trump damage or will the end state just a be a continuation of America's reduced state?

    Trump intends to destroy enough of the state that it can never be reassembled in its current form

    EDIT: When I say Trump, I don't mean the man himself. I don't think he understands the things that are being done in his name. I mean the guys behind the curtain.
    That's precisely the point. It's Trump's Cultural Revolution. The whole point is to smash the old ways in order to further his cult of personality and make it impossible to go back to the old ways.

    It worked short term for Mao too, but 20 years later it was full on capitalism for China.

    I wonder who will be Trump's Deng?
    The smashing up bit of the Cultural Revolution stopped in 1969 when they shipped the youth off into the countryside to get them out the way. The trigger was the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia and the realisation China could be next. But there was a long period of stasis until the Deng reformation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,156
    Blimey.
    A piece of Philip Glass on Add to Playlist which is very listenable.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,835
    Peter Hitchens gave a good interview on Talk TV which was I think summarises my views on the latest developments on Ukraine.

    https://youtu.be/ImBw4yFbktY?si=sfgnMFQH1HpheAT6

    "I don't remember anyone saying when the Americans pulled out of Vietnam - let's send lots of British troops to replace them"
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,439
    Taz said:

    algarkirk said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    A good slice of this board thinks posters are being hysterical when they point out that politicians who support the AfD, Putin, use Nazi language and make Nazi salutes might err, be a bit Nazi.
    Indeed, on which topic Reform's dilemma could be a fork in the road. SFAICS its support base, as opposed to the powers on and behind the throne are the sort of people who watch reruns of Dad's Army, apart from those who find it a bit too intellectual.
    WTf is wrong with watching re-runs of Dads Army. It’s an excellent, well written, well observed and characterised comedy accessible to all.
    Nothing at all. Many of them are masterpieces. Their appeal is massive. I love them. That's the point. Not many potential Reform voters are going to stick for ever with a party if it goes down the rabbit hole of apologists for Nazi salutes or Europe's invaders. Farage could easily struggle here unless he wants to be a proper normal rightish social democrat + NATO or its replacement(?) + low migration + bash welfare for the wrong sort + fantasy economics party.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,106
    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    I’ve just seen the Bannon one and it clearly was and it’s shocking, but not surprising.

    Any politician of any integrity who has any association with him will have to hastily change that.
    Trolling and virtue/vice signalling - for that’s what it is, these people don’t actually want to restore the German reich - seem to be features of the 21st century far right. A generation of politicians brought up on social media.

    The nazi salute is a way of saying “fuck you,
    libtards”, but it’s also a power statement. “I can do whatever the hell I like and you can’t stop me”. Vance’s tirade last week was another case of trolling as modus operandi. Musk does it reflexively. They then get shocked to the core when others give it back, and start whining like JD did about Zelenskyy or blocking community notes like Elon.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,085
    edited February 22

    Peter Hitchens gave a good interview on Talk TV which was I think summarises my views on the latest developments on Ukraine.

    https://youtu.be/ImBw4yFbktY?si=sfgnMFQH1HpheAT6

    "I don't remember anyone saying when the Americans pulled out of Vietnam - let's send lots of British troops to replace them"

    Hitchens has always claimed that he shed tears of joy when the Iron Curtain came down, but he always repeats Russian talking points, and plainly sees Russia as the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,735
    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    I’ve just seen the Bannon one and it clearly was and it’s shocking, but not surprising.

    Any politician of any integrity who has any association with him will have to hastily change that.
    christ we've been saying this for 10 years, what makes you think backbones are going to stiffen now?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,106
    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    algarkirk said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    A good slice of this board thinks posters are being hysterical when they point out that politicians who support the AfD, Putin, use Nazi language and make Nazi salutes might err, be a bit Nazi.
    Indeed, on which topic Reform's dilemma could be a fork in the road. SFAICS its support base, as opposed to the powers on and behind the throne are the sort of people who watch reruns of Dad's Army, apart from those who find it a bit too intellectual.
    WTf is wrong with watching re-runs of Dads Army. It’s an excellent, well written, well observed and characterised comedy accessible to all.
    Nothing at all. Many of them are masterpieces. Their appeal is massive. I love them. That's the point. Not many potential Reform voters are going to stick for ever with a party if it goes down the rabbit hole of apologists for Nazi salutes or Europe's invaders. Farage could easily struggle here unless he wants to be a proper normal rightish social democrat + NATO or its replacement(?) + low migration + bash welfare for the wrong sort + fantasy economics party.
    So what’s it to be:

    - We’re all doomed, or
    - Don’t panic?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,958

    Peter Hitchens gave a good interview on Talk TV which was I think summarises my views on the latest developments on Ukraine.

    https://youtu.be/ImBw4yFbktY?si=sfgnMFQH1HpheAT6

    "I don't remember anyone saying when the Americans pulled out of Vietnam - let's send lots of British troops to replace them"

    That’s because the British Government and the vast majority of people in the U.K. did not support South Vietnam in any meaningful sense.

    The majority, Government and opposition in the UK support Ukraine.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,106
    Tres said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    I’ve just seen the Bannon one and it clearly was and it’s shocking, but not surprising.

    Any politician of any integrity who has any association with him will have to hastily change that.
    christ we've been saying this for 10 years, what makes you think backbones are going to stiffen now?
    Backbones are certainly stiffening. So are forearms.
  • algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    algarkirk said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    A good slice of this board thinks posters are being hysterical when they point out that politicians who support the AfD, Putin, use Nazi language and make Nazi salutes might err, be a bit Nazi.
    Indeed, on which topic Reform's dilemma could be a fork in the road. SFAICS its support base, as opposed to the powers on and behind the throne are the sort of people who watch reruns of Dad's Army, apart from those who find it a bit too intellectual.
    WTf is wrong with watching re-runs of Dads Army. It’s an excellent, well written, well observed and characterised comedy accessible to all.
    Nothing at all. Many of them are masterpieces. Their appeal is massive. I love them. That's the point. Not many potential Reform voters are going to stick for ever with a party if it goes down the rabbit hole of apologists for Nazi salutes or Europe's invaders. Farage could easily struggle here unless he wants to be a proper normal rightish social democrat + NATO or its replacement(?) + low migration + bash welfare for the wrong sort + fantasy economics party.
    Reform's problem goes roughly like this.

    Not everyone who backs Reform is Putin's Pal. Indeed, most of them aren't.

    But Putin's Pals overwhelmingly back Reform, and without them Reform aren't winning.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,735

    Peter Hitchens gave a good interview on Talk TV which was I think summarises my views on the latest developments on Ukraine.

    https://youtu.be/ImBw4yFbktY?si=sfgnMFQH1HpheAT6

    "I don't remember anyone saying when the Americans pulled out of Vietnam - let's send lots of British troops to replace them"

    i dont remember there being tens of thousands of vietnamese refugees living in our communities when America pulled out of Vietnam.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,439

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

    Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

    While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
    I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

    Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
    Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.
    Interesting. I live in a bubble where people seem to compete to show their disdain for Trump. The closest I find to someone making the alternative case is on here. It instinctively makes me feel that it just can't be that simple, I suppose I am a contrarian of sorts.

    So, it seems to me the case can be made that Trump/Vance are just saying more bluntly and clearly which has always been true. The US will act in their self interest. The fact we wanted to delude ourselves for many years to give us a comfort blanket was on us, not them.

    I think a case can also be made that the Lawfare of the previous administration was grossly irresponsible and a dangerous precedent. Trump should have been treated the same as everyone else before the law, he should not have been prosecuted for things that others doing the same would not have been prosecuted for.

    I can sort of understand why the US might regard the Ukraine as a European problem rather than theirs.

    Vance may be right about the excessive regulation of the EU in things like AI and data protection (I have sympathy with pretty much anyone criticising the bureaucratic and pointless mess of GDPR, for example).

    He and even Musk may be right that the blob has simply grown out of control, more interested in feeding itself than serving the country (I have expressed similar, if more restrained views about our own country). Attacking it with callipers simply won't do, a chainsaw is needed.

    I'm running out of arguments at this point but does anyone have any more? What is Trump & Co right about? Someone famous (but I am terrible with names) said if you didn't understand your opponents case then you don't even understand your own, or something like that.

    I go along with this to some extent. However proportionality needs to apply. If Trump wants to undo NATO then this should be done in a way and timescale that allows and compels consideration of Europe and Canada's way forward.

    Yes, I agree Europe has been at fault too.

    Trump's approach makes good sense if, and only if, you decide that the world is and should be self interested well armed mercantileist power blocs with no particular
    interest in rights, democracy or the prosperity of others. The blocs are: Americas, Russia and the east, China, India, Rest of the West.

    However, one word shows Trump's world is more complex: Israel.
    Europe would be one of those blocs as well.

    Thiel (and hence Vance) has been incredibly influenced by Huntington’s Clash of Civilisations. It’s a bit dated now but worth reading / rereading

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Clash-Civilizations-Remaking-World-Order/dp/074323149X/ref=asc_df_074323149X?mcid=0182a8178dbe37a58b9a6378a7afcc57&th=1&psc=1&tag=googshopuk-21&linkCode=df0&hvadid=697203176766&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=2899728674144262350&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=m&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9045953&hvtargid=pla-525415252688&psc=1&gad_source=1
    Yes, Europe, apart from the bits Trump gives to Russia , is in with 'The Rest of the West' - an interesting group which could include Canada, Australia and NZ and any other randomers who are fond of liberalism, regulated capitalism, peace and so on. People who believe on the whole with Smith and Ricardo that a peaceful tolerant and prosperous world makes for good customers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652

    Peter Hitchens gave a good interview on Talk TV which was I think summarises my views on the latest developments on Ukraine.

    https://youtu.be/ImBw4yFbktY?si=sfgnMFQH1HpheAT6

    "I don't remember anyone saying when the Americans pulled out of Vietnam - let's send lots of British troops to replace them"

    That’s because the British Government and the vast majority of people in the U.K. did not support South Vietnam in any meaningful sense.

    The majority, Government and opposition in the UK support Ukraine.
    Ukraine is also in Europe and Putin is more of a threat to us than Ho Chi Minh. Not that British troops will be sent unless a ceasefire, just aid
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,960

    Peter Hitchens gave a good interview on Talk TV which was I think summarises my views on the latest developments on Ukraine.

    https://youtu.be/ImBw4yFbktY?si=sfgnMFQH1HpheAT6

    "I don't remember anyone saying when the Americans pulled out of Vietnam - let's send lots of British troops to replace them"

    Aside from the fact America don't have troops in Ukraine, we'd be providing a limited peacekeeping force alongside others (if that), and the fact that the Viet Cong weren't threatening other areas of Eastern Europe it's a perfect analogy!
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,619

    Peter Hitchens gave a good interview on Talk TV which was I think summarises my views on the latest developments on Ukraine.

    https://youtu.be/ImBw4yFbktY?si=sfgnMFQH1HpheAT6

    "I don't remember anyone saying when the Americans pulled out of Vietnam - let's send lots of British troops to replace them"

    A fairly ludicrous analogy. Hard to even count the ways but shall we start with where Ukraine is, add in a third party aggressor which is actively hostile to the UK and murders people on our streets, and finish up by observing that the UK had previously guaranteed Ukraine’s security?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,958
    TimS said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    algarkirk said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    A good slice of this board thinks posters are being hysterical when they point out that politicians who support the AfD, Putin, use Nazi language and make Nazi salutes might err, be a bit Nazi.
    Indeed, on which topic Reform's dilemma could be a fork in the road. SFAICS its support base, as opposed to the powers on and behind the throne are the sort of people who watch reruns of Dad's Army, apart from those who find it a bit too intellectual.
    WTf is wrong with watching re-runs of Dads Army. It’s an excellent, well written, well observed and characterised comedy accessible to all.
    Nothing at all. Many of them are masterpieces. Their appeal is massive. I love them. That's the point. Not many potential Reform voters are going to stick for ever with a party if it goes down the rabbit hole of apologists for Nazi salutes or Europe's invaders. Farage could easily struggle here unless he wants to be a proper normal rightish social democrat + NATO or its replacement(?) + low migration + bash welfare for the wrong sort + fantasy economics party.
    So what’s it to be:

    - We’re all doomed, or
    - Don’t panic?
    Rubbish.

    We are all doomed. Form an orderly queue for the PB Panic. Please remember to share the Jaffa cakes and help people to tea and coffee from the urns at the end table.

    Also, can we have some volunteers to stay behind, after The Panic, to fold the tables and put the chairs back in the cupboard? The caretaker gets upset if he can’t run the floor polisher on Sunday afternoon.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,701
    TimS said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    algarkirk said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    A good slice of this board thinks posters are being hysterical when they point out that politicians who support the AfD, Putin, use Nazi language and make Nazi salutes might err, be a bit Nazi.
    Indeed, on which topic Reform's dilemma could be a fork in the road. SFAICS its support base, as opposed to the powers on and behind the throne are the sort of people who watch reruns of Dad's Army, apart from those who find it a bit too intellectual.
    WTf is wrong with watching re-runs of Dads Army. It’s an excellent, well written, well observed and characterised comedy accessible to all.
    Nothing at all. Many of them are masterpieces. Their appeal is massive. I love them. That's the point. Not many potential Reform voters are going to stick for ever with a party if it goes down the rabbit hole of apologists for Nazi salutes or Europe's invaders. Farage could easily struggle here unless he wants to be a proper normal rightish social democrat + NATO or its replacement(?) + low migration + bash welfare for the wrong sort + fantasy economics party.
    So what’s it to be:

    - We’re all doomed, or
    - Don’t panic?
    Stupid boy.
    Don't like it up 'em.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,448
    edited February 22
    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    What is Trump & Co right about? Someone famous (but I am terrible with names) said if you didn't understand your opponents case then you don't even understand your own, or something like that.

    There may be a complex Geopolitical framework in which the actions of Trump/Musk et al make sense, but there is much simpler explanation

    They are white supremacist criminals, whose agenda is to enrich themselves at the expense of others.

    I don't really think it's any more complicated than that.
    I was about to write the same thing.

    @DavidL your views are always interesting to read, and I agree with many of your points (my main disagreement is over GDPR; whilst bureaucratic, I think that ownership and control of data will come to be seen as one of the most
    important political issues of the current century as so much follows from it. GDPR is a clunky step in the right direction.)

    However, as with so many other alt right/hard right figures, I think that whilst Trump &co are right on many of the critiques of our current system, they are fundamentally wrong on the solutions.

    And as Scott says, I think that is because they are being deeply disingenuous and are using their critique of our current system to achieve their own ends, which stretch no further than benefitting themselves. (I would contrast this with eg Reform, who I believe are more genuine in their attempts to find radical solutions, even if they are still wrong).

    Nevertheless I wholeheartedly agree with @DavidL's attempt to find what they are saying that is right. So to add to your list David I think their central critique that our current system benefits elites at the expense of the majority is hard to argue against. Look at the stagnation of living standards in USA, as well as the rise in extreme wealth. In the UK, consider the tide of sentiment against the financial system after 2008; however you see the merits or otherwise of that sentiment, it didn't lead to any fundamental changes and leaves people feeling the rage of powerlessness. I have little doubt that's why the far right are on the rise.

    This is why, though I fundamentally disagree with it, Brexit is in some ways a good thing. A majority, perhaps enabled by interference (but that is moot unless probable), wished to Brexit. We did so, and have not reneged on it despite it being so clearly a failure. Whilst I lament what it has done to our country, it is a very visible way in which the current system was disrupted, and I think it is important for the legitimacy of democratic systems that that is seen to be possible.

    So, to stretch as far as I can towards what Trump &co are doing well...the current disruption of bureaucracy in USA is not altogether bad. It is important that we believe that we have the power to dismantle what we have created if it no longer serves us. (Before I get hounded off this forum a la Sandpit, let me state that the way in which bureaucracy is being disrupted is criminal, and will devastate western liberalism in a way that is very hard to recover from).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    algarkirk said:

    The Economist this week is pretty uncheery. Summary: Europe alone. Needs single envoy to speak for it with USA and Russia. France and UK need to agree Europe's nuclear shield. Defence spending to rise to 4-5%, an extra 300bn Euros. Cut welfare. This is "Europe's worst nightmare".

    Yup, there's no more room for higher taxes, it has to come out of welfare. We pay too many people too much money to sit at home and do nothing.
    A new Merz led German government after the German election tomorrow may make a shift to cut welfare and increase defence as might Meloni's Italy and Poland and even Macron and Bayrou's France, though Melenchon's group will try and block it.

    The UK Labour government certainly won't to any significant degree
    This could be the making of Starmer, who might end up being viewed similarly to Attlee.

    Could be.
    He won't, Labour would replace him with Rayner if he cut welfare and public service spending to increase defence without raising tax on the rich and corporations
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,890
    Sean_F said:

    Peter Hitchens gave a good interview on Talk TV which was I think summarises my views on the latest developments on Ukraine.

    https://youtu.be/ImBw4yFbktY?si=sfgnMFQH1HpheAT6

    "I don't remember anyone saying when the Americans pulled out of Vietnam - let's send lots of British troops to replace them"

    Hitchens has always claimed that he shed tears of joy when the Iron Curtain came down, but he always repeats Russian talking points, and plainly sees Russia as the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
    Peter Hitchens is a nutcase.

    He hates people agreeing with him, and will always change his position so he's as negative and forlorn as possible.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612

    TimS said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    algarkirk said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    A good slice of this board thinks posters are being hysterical when they point out that politicians who support the AfD, Putin, use Nazi language and make Nazi salutes might err, be a bit Nazi.
    Indeed, on which topic Reform's dilemma could be a fork in the road. SFAICS its support base, as opposed to the powers on and behind the throne are the sort of people who watch reruns of Dad's Army, apart from those who find it a bit too intellectual.
    WTf is wrong with watching re-runs of Dads Army. It’s an excellent, well written, well observed and characterised comedy accessible to all.
    Nothing at all. Many of them are masterpieces. Their appeal is massive. I love them. That's the point. Not many potential Reform voters are going to stick for ever with a party if it goes down the rabbit hole of apologists for Nazi salutes or Europe's invaders. Farage could easily struggle here unless he wants to be a proper normal rightish social democrat + NATO or its replacement(?) + low migration + bash welfare for the wrong sort + fantasy economics party.
    So what’s it to be:

    - We’re all doomed, or
    - Don’t panic?
    Rubbish.

    We are all doomed. Form an orderly queue for the PB Panic. Please remember to share the Jaffa cakes and help people to tea and coffee from the urns at the end table.

    Also, can we have some volunteers to stay behind, after The Panic, to fold the tables and put the chairs back in the cupboard? The caretaker gets upset if he can’t run the floor polisher on Sunday afternoon.
    Reminds me of the old ad

    ‘We are the munchkins and we’re mad on Jaffa cakes’
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652

    I see we have reached the 'fire Generals who might be suspect' stage of the take-over of America.

    Don't want anyone at the top who actually really believes they serve the Constitution and not the King do we?

    The general was fired as he was too pro EDI for Trump
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612
    TimS said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    algarkirk said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    A good slice of this board thinks posters are being hysterical when they point out that politicians who support the AfD, Putin, use Nazi language and make Nazi salutes might err, be a bit Nazi.
    Indeed, on which topic Reform's dilemma could be a fork in the road. SFAICS its support base, as opposed to the powers on and behind the throne are the sort of people who watch reruns of Dad's Army, apart from those who find it a bit too intellectual.
    WTf is wrong with watching re-runs of Dads Army. It’s an excellent, well written, well observed and characterised comedy accessible to all.
    Nothing at all. Many of them are masterpieces. Their appeal is massive. I love them. That's the point. Not many potential Reform voters are going to stick for ever with a party if it goes down the rabbit hole of apologists for Nazi salutes or Europe's invaders. Farage could easily struggle here unless he wants to be a proper normal rightish social democrat + NATO or its replacement(?) + low migration + bash welfare for the wrong sort + fantasy economics party.
    So what’s it to be:

    - We’re all doomed, or
    - Don’t panic?
    Needs a little bit of Sgt Wilson in the background whispering ‘Do you think that’s awfully wise ?’
  • MaxPB said:

    algarkirk said:

    The Economist this week is pretty uncheery. Summary: Europe alone. Needs single envoy to speak for it with USA and Russia. France and UK need to agree Europe's nuclear shield. Defence spending to rise to 4-5%, an extra 300bn Euros. Cut welfare. This is "Europe's worst nightmare".

    Yup, there's no more room for higher taxes, it has to come out of welfare. We pay too many people too much money to sit at home and do nothing.
    A shift from welfare spending to defence spending is also a shift from spending on the old to spending on the young and from spending on non-workers to spending on workers.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,835
    edited February 22
    Sean_F said:

    Peter Hitchens gave a good interview on Talk TV which was I think summarises my views on the latest developments on Ukraine.

    https://youtu.be/ImBw4yFbktY?si=sfgnMFQH1HpheAT6

    "I don't remember anyone saying when the Americans pulled out of Vietnam - let's send lots of British troops to replace them"

    Hitchens has always claimed that he shed tears of joy when the Iron Curtain came down, but he always repeats Russian talking points, and plainly sees Russia as the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
    He's very critical of Russia and rather sympathetic to Zelensky in the interview, but his bottom line is (as mine is) what is the UK's interest in Ukraine?

    We were pulled into it in the first place because the US's geopolitical rivalry with Russia, it's quite perverse now that the US seems set on a raphrochment with Russia, to want to keep playing the old tunes like a disco fan in 1982. If we were dealing with a normal White House, the thaw would be gradual, it would all be couched in guarded terms, and a memo would go round so all the Western leaders could make similar noises. But it's Trump, and he doesn't give a shit about embarrassing other world leaders.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,666
    maxh said:

    I think their central critique that our current system benefits elites at the expense of the majority is hard to argue against.

    Indeed. The irony of course is their solution is to further enrich their specific elite at the expense of an even greater majority.

    The Singapore on Thames Brexiteers tried the same trick, although it hasn't quite worked out that way for most of them.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,621
    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

    Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

    While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
    I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

    Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
    Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.
    Interesting. I live in a bubble where people seem to compete to show their disdain for Trump. The closest I find to someone making the alternative case is on here. It instinctively makes me feel that it just can't be that simple, I suppose I am a contrarian of sorts.

    So, it seems to me the case can be made that Trump/Vance are just saying more bluntly and clearly which has always been true. The US will act in their self interest. The fact we wanted to delude ourselves for many years to give us a comfort blanket was on us, not them.

    I think a case can also be made that the Lawfare of the previous administration was grossly irresponsible and a dangerous precedent. Trump should have been treated the same as everyone else before the law, he should not have been prosecuted for things that others doing the same would not have been prosecuted for.

    I can sort of understand why the US might regard the Ukraine as a European problem rather than theirs.

    Vance may be right about the excessive regulation of the EU in things like AI and data protection (I have sympathy with pretty much anyone criticising the bureaucratic and pointless mess of GDPR, for example).

    He and even Musk may be right that the blob has simply grown out of control, more interested in feeding itself than serving the country (I have expressed similar, if more restrained views about our own country). Attacking it with callipers simply won't do, a chainsaw is needed.

    I'm running out of arguments at this point but does anyone have any more? What is Trump & Co right about? Someone famous (but I am terrible with names) said if you didn't understand your opponents case then you don't even understand your own, or something like that.

    I go along with this to some extent. However proportionality needs to apply. If Trump wants to undo NATO then this should be done in a way and timescale that allows and compels consideration of Europe and Canada's way forward.

    Yes, I agree Europe has been at fault too.

    Trump's approach makes good sense if, and only if, you decide that the world is and should be self interested well armed mercantileist power blocs with no particular interest in rights, democracy or the prosperity of others. The blocs are: Americas, Russia and the east, China, India, Rest of the West.

    However, one word shows Trump's world is more complex: Israel.
    I think the war itself is indefensible, and a very black mark on Putin's record. That said, the case for arming Ukraine indefinitely rests on either (1) believing that if Ukraine is seen to have lost then other Russian incursions will follow or (2) that there is no civilised alternative. The problem is that huge numbers of lives are being lost for what has become essentially a border war, and we aren't offering any alternative except for Russia saying sorry, we'll stop and pay damages. That's a formula for the war continuing for years, quite possibly ending with a Ukrainian defeat.

    I've very little time for Trump, but the effort to see if there's a basis for a settlement seems worthwhile. If the condition is substantial border defences for the remaining 80% of Ukraine and other countries thought to be at risk, fine, and if it costs more money, we should be prepared to pay it. However, the principle that no boundaries can ever be changed, regardless of the wishes of the current population, and it's worth any number of casualities and indefinite war to prevent it, seems to me wrong.

    Yes, one can argue that when the original population of the easstern provinces was asked, a (relatively slender) majority said they wanted to stay with Ukraine. That's a reasonable consideration, but not the only one. And the question "what would you do?" seems to me a reasonable one, to which the response "support the war continuing indefinitely" is unsatisfactory.

    I hesitate to write this, as it generates hostility at a personal level which I can do without, given my lack of influence over the outcome. But you asked...
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,448

    TimS said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    algarkirk said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    A good slice of this board thinks posters are being hysterical when they point out that politicians who support the AfD, Putin, use Nazi language and make Nazi salutes might err, be a bit Nazi.
    Indeed, on which topic Reform's dilemma could be a fork in the road. SFAICS its support base, as opposed to the powers on and behind the throne are the sort of people who watch reruns of Dad's Army, apart from those who find it a bit too intellectual.
    WTf is wrong with watching re-runs of Dads Army. It’s an excellent, well written, well observed and characterised comedy accessible to all.
    Nothing at all. Many of them are masterpieces. Their appeal is massive. I love them. That's the point. Not many potential Reform voters are going to stick for ever with a party if it goes down the rabbit hole of apologists for Nazi salutes or Europe's invaders. Farage could easily struggle here unless he wants to be a proper normal rightish social democrat + NATO or its replacement(?) + low migration + bash welfare for the wrong sort + fantasy economics party.
    So what’s it to be:

    - We’re all doomed, or
    - Don’t panic?
    Rubbish.

    We are all doomed. Form an orderly queue for the PB Panic. Please remember to share the Jaffa cakes and help people to tea and coffee from the urns at the end table.

    Also, can we have some volunteers to stay behind, after The Panic, to fold the tables and put the chairs back in the cupboard? The caretaker gets upset if he can’t run the floor polisher on Sunday afternoon.
    As an observation, PB does hysteria brilliantly.

    It reveals much about my own prejudices that I am enjoying our current bout of hysteria (the Nazification of USA) far more than I enjoyed the last few (trans women rampaging through toilets and/or a tiny set of islands somewhere revealing the nefarious, traitorous plot of Starmer to hand our whole nation over to the Chinese in exchange for permission to have to US make our decisions over video call or somesuch).
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,835
    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    algarkirk said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    A good slice of this board thinks posters are being hysterical when they point out that politicians who support the AfD, Putin, use Nazi language and make Nazi salutes might err, be a bit Nazi.
    Indeed, on which topic Reform's dilemma could be a fork in the road. SFAICS its support base, as opposed to the powers on and behind the throne are the sort of people who watch reruns of Dad's Army, apart from those who find it a bit too intellectual.
    WTf is wrong with watching re-runs of Dads Army. It’s an excellent, well written, well observed and characterised comedy accessible to all.
    Nothing at all. Many of them are masterpieces. Their appeal is massive. I love them. That's the point. Not many potential Reform voters are going to stick for ever with a party if it goes down the rabbit hole of apologists for Nazi salutes or Europe's invaders. Farage could easily struggle here unless he wants to be a proper normal rightish social democrat + NATO or its replacement(?) + low migration + bash welfare for the wrong sort + fantasy economics party.
    So what’s it to be:

    - We’re all doomed, or
    - Don’t panic?
    Needs a little bit of Sgt Wilson in the background whispering ‘Do you think that’s awfully wise ?’
    With David Millaband around it's more "Put that light out!"
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,666

    He's very critical of Russia and rather sympathetic to Zelensky in the interview, but his bottom line is (as mine is) what is the UK's interest in Ukraine?

    The same as our interest in Belgium when fascists invaded.

    It is in our own self interest that Putin loses, badly, and is seen to lose on the World stage.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,666
    @SkyNews

    BREAKING: Zelenskyy not ready to sign 'problematic' Ukraine minerals deal with US, source tells Sky News

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1893253918232121492
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,835
    Scott_xP said:

    He's very critical of Russia and rather sympathetic to Zelensky in the interview, but his bottom line is (as mine is) what is the UK's interest in Ukraine?

    The same as our interest in Belgium when fascists invaded.

    It is in our own self interest that Putin loses, badly, and is seen to lose on the World stage.
    I think you're confusing your World Wars.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,448

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    See Nigel’s been slagging Britain off in America. Predictable and depressing.

    Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.

    While Trump's betrayal of Ukraine is dominating things here, I haven't yet heard it discussed in the real world, not even by the Ukranian doctor that I was working with earlier in the week.
    I had a business meeting with a Californian on Weds. Recent events have caused family problems with his Maga sister and got him abuse. Feels like it’s back to 2006 🤷

    Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
    Both my brother-in -law and my oldest friend are hard core Trumpist/Putinist types. I am finding myself having to limit my visits to them because I can't bite my tongue when they go off on their deranged rants.
    Interesting. I live in a bubble where people seem to compete to show their disdain for Trump. The closest I find to someone making the alternative case is on here. It instinctively makes me feel that it just can't be that simple, I suppose I am a contrarian of sorts.

    So, it seems to me the case can be made that Trump/Vance are just saying more bluntly and clearly which has always been true. The US will act in their self interest. The fact we wanted to delude ourselves for many years to give us a comfort blanket was on us, not them.

    I think a case can also be made that the Lawfare of the previous administration was grossly irresponsible and a dangerous precedent. Trump should have been treated the same as everyone else before the law, he should not have been prosecuted for things that others doing the same would not have been prosecuted for.

    I can sort of understand why the US might regard the Ukraine as a European problem rather than theirs.

    Vance may be right about the excessive regulation of the EU in things like AI and data protection (I have sympathy with pretty much anyone criticising the bureaucratic and pointless mess of GDPR, for example).

    He and even Musk may be right that the blob has simply grown out of control, more interested in feeding itself than serving the country (I have expressed similar, if more restrained views about our own country). Attacking it with callipers simply won't do, a chainsaw is needed.

    I'm running out of arguments at this point but does anyone have any more? What is Trump & Co right about? Someone famous (but I am terrible with names) said if you didn't understand your opponents case then you don't even understand your own, or something like that.

    I go along with this to some extent. However proportionality needs to apply. If Trump wants to undo NATO then this should be done in a way and timescale that allows and compels consideration of Europe and Canada's way forward.

    Yes, I agree Europe has been at fault too.

    Trump's approach makes good sense if, and only if, you decide that the world is and should be self interested well armed mercantileist power blocs with no particular interest in rights, democracy or the prosperity of others. The blocs are: Americas, Russia and the east, China, India, Rest of the West.

    However, one word shows Trump's world is more complex: Israel.
    I think the war itself is indefensible, and a very black mark on Putin's record. That said, the case for arming Ukraine indefinitely rests on either (1) believing that if Ukraine is seen to have lost then other Russian incursions will follow or (2) that there is no civilised alternative. The problem is that huge numbers of lives are being lost for what has become essentially a border war, and we aren't offering any alternative except for Russia saying sorry, we'll stop and pay damages. That's a formula for the war continuing for years, quite possibly ending with a Ukrainian defeat.

    I've very little time for Trump, but the effort to see if there's a basis for a settlement seems worthwhile. If the condition is substantial border defences for the remaining 80% of Ukraine and other countries thought to be at risk, fine, and if it costs more money, we should be prepared to pay it. However, the principle that no boundaries can ever be changed, regardless of the wishes of the current population, and it's worth any number of casualities and indefinite war to prevent it, seems to me wrong.

    Yes, one can argue that when the original population of the easstern provinces was asked, a (relatively slender) majority said they wanted to stay with Ukraine. That's a reasonable consideration, but not the only one. And the question "what would you do?" seems to me a reasonable one, to which the response "support the war continuing indefinitely" is unsatisfactory.

    I hesitate to write this, as it generates hostility at a personal level which I can do without, given my lack of influence over the outcome. But you asked...
    Nick I don't doubt you are arguing in good faith, and value your perspective.

    But where would you factor in the larger cause of this war, which is to signal to Putin that his interference in Eastern Europe is not legitimate? I'm not sure this is 'essentially a border war'.

    Second question: whilst I think I agree it is time for a settlement (subject to Ukraine's wishes), do you agree that Trump's approach has inexplicably given all the bargaining power to Putin in a way that is totally unnecessary?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,988

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    A good slice of this board thinks posters are being hysterical when they point out that politicians who support the AfD, Putin, use Nazi language and make Nazi salutes might err, be a bit Nazi.
    It’s not a particularly helpful term - because it immediately makes people think about toothbrush-moustaches and German dictators.

    It’s the same with “fascist”. The left abused the terms for so long to try and demonise their moderate opponents that they no longer have the power to shock.



  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,835
    maxh said:

    TimS said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    algarkirk said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    A good slice of this board thinks posters are being hysterical when they point out that politicians who support the AfD, Putin, use Nazi language and make Nazi salutes might err, be a bit Nazi.
    Indeed, on which topic Reform's dilemma could be a fork in the road. SFAICS its support base, as opposed to the powers on and behind the throne are the sort of people who watch reruns of Dad's Army, apart from those who find it a bit too intellectual.
    WTf is wrong with watching re-runs of Dads Army. It’s an excellent, well written, well observed and characterised comedy accessible to all.
    Nothing at all. Many of them are masterpieces. Their appeal is massive. I love them. That's the point. Not many potential Reform voters are going to stick for ever with a party if it goes down the rabbit hole of apologists for Nazi salutes or Europe's invaders. Farage could easily struggle here unless he wants to be a proper normal rightish social democrat + NATO or its replacement(?) + low migration + bash welfare for the wrong sort + fantasy economics party.
    So what’s it to be:

    - We’re all doomed, or
    - Don’t panic?
    Rubbish.

    We are all doomed. Form an orderly queue for the PB Panic. Please remember to share the Jaffa cakes and help people to tea and coffee from the urns at the end table.

    Also, can we have some volunteers to stay behind, after The Panic, to fold the tables and put the chairs back in the cupboard? The caretaker gets upset if he can’t run the floor polisher on Sunday afternoon.
    As an observation, PB does hysteria brilliantly.

    It reveals much about my own prejudices that I am enjoying our current bout of hysteria (the Nazification of USA) far more than I enjoyed the last few (trans women rampaging through toilets and/or a tiny set of islands somewhere revealing the nefarious, traitorous plot of Starmer to hand our whole nation over to the Chinese in exchange for permission to have to US make our decisions over video call or somesuch).
    Sadly, even some of our very sensible members tend to get swept up. I genuinely think it relates to a media diet with a lot of traditional broadcast news.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,448

    Sean_F said:

    Peter Hitchens gave a good interview on Talk TV which was I think summarises my views on the latest developments on Ukraine.

    https://youtu.be/ImBw4yFbktY?si=sfgnMFQH1HpheAT6

    "I don't remember anyone saying when the Americans pulled out of Vietnam - let's send lots of British troops to replace them"

    Hitchens has always claimed that he shed tears of joy when the Iron Curtain came down, but he always repeats Russian talking points, and plainly sees Russia as the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
    Peter Hitchens is a nutcase.

    He hates people agreeing with him, and will always change his position so he's as negative and forlorn as possible.
    I have never thought about him in that way but it is such an apt characterisation of him. It makes me warm to him quite a bit - we need people like that in public life.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,612
    Tres said:

    Peter Hitchens gave a good interview on Talk TV which was I think summarises my views on the latest developments on Ukraine.

    https://youtu.be/ImBw4yFbktY?si=sfgnMFQH1HpheAT6

    "I don't remember anyone saying when the Americans pulled out of Vietnam - let's send lots of British troops to replace them"

    i dont remember there being tens of thousands of vietnamese refugees living in our communities when America pulled out of Vietnam.
    There were quite a few though. I remember going to a Blue Peter bring and buy sale in aid of Vietnamese boat people, aged about 5. I think we took in a fair number.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,735

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    A good slice of this board thinks posters are being hysterical when they point out that politicians who support the AfD, Putin, use Nazi language and make Nazi salutes might err, be a bit Nazi.
    It’s not a particularly helpful term - because it immediately makes people think about toothbrush-moustaches and German dictators.

    It’s the same with “fascist”. The left abused the terms for so long to try and demonise their moderate opponents that they no longer have the power to shock.



    ah back to it always being the lefts fault.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,612
    Maybe we can all stick it to Trump by declaring our pronouns at the start of each post? That’ll learn him.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,708

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    A good slice of this board thinks posters are being hysterical when they point out that politicians who support the AfD, Putin, use Nazi language and make Nazi salutes might err, be a bit Nazi.
    It’s not a particularly helpful term - because it immediately makes people think about toothbrush-moustaches and German dictators.

    It’s the same with “fascist”. The left abused the terms for so long to try and demonise their moderate opponents that they no longer have the power to shock.



    I thought the right were all for plain speaking. If they are nazis call them nazis?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,612
    Anyone got any tips for the German election? Seat totals etc?
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,448

    MaxPB said:

    algarkirk said:

    The Economist this week is pretty uncheery. Summary: Europe alone. Needs single envoy to speak for it with USA and Russia. France and UK need to agree Europe's nuclear shield. Defence spending to rise to 4-5%, an extra 300bn Euros. Cut welfare. This is "Europe's worst nightmare".

    Yup, there's no more room for higher taxes, it has to come out of welfare. We pay too many people too much money to sit at home and do nothing.
    A shift from welfare spending to defence spending is also a shift from spending on the old to spending on the young and from spending on non-workers to spending on workers.
    I think that's a bit optimistic. From my limited experience working at Westland Helicopters back in the day, defence spending tends to only trickle to workers as the horrendously expensive kit dams the flow rather.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,964
    Hitchens argument is bizarre. However much noise he creates, he will never match his brother.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,988
    boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    FF43 said:

    When the establishment reasserts itself in America, as it will eventually do, will they attempt to undo the Trump damage or will the end state just a be a continuation of America's reduced state?

    Trump intends to destroy enough of the state that it can never be reassembled in its current form

    EDIT: When I say Trump, I don't mean the man himself. I don't think he understands the things that are being done in his name. I mean the guys behind the curtain.
    That's precisely the point. It's Trump's Cultural Revolution. The whole point is to smash the old ways in order to further his cult of personality and make it impossible to go back to the old ways.

    It worked short term for Mao too, but 20 years later it was full on capitalism for China.

    I wonder who will be Trump's Deng?
    Surely Melania is Trump’s Wendy Deng, exotic foreign third wife marrying rich old right winger?

    I heard that Melania has been given some high paying project by Amazon since the election. It’s very sad that talented tv producers such as Melania don’t get their skills and abilities noticed until their vengeful and venal husbands get elected as President. Glad that wrong is righted now.

    Edit, apparently they have paid Melania $40m for the privilege of making a
    documentary about her. Money well,spent IMhO.
    Be fair. She’s only receiving 72% of that as her fee. The rest of it is going on production costs.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,156

    Peter Hitchens gave a good interview on Talk TV which was I think summarises my views on the latest developments on Ukraine.

    https://youtu.be/ImBw4yFbktY?si=sfgnMFQH1HpheAT6

    "I don't remember anyone saying when the Americans pulled out of Vietnam - let's send lots of British troops to replace them"

    That's even more idiotic than the Korea comparison.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,106
    Scott_xP said:

    @SkyNews

    BREAKING: Zelenskyy not ready to sign 'problematic' Ukraine minerals deal with US, source tells Sky News

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1893253918232121492

    He presumably remembers what happened last time a Ukrainian president was blackmailed (or bribed, or both) to sign a one-sided trade agreement against the will of its population. And surely the US must know enough recent history to realise this?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652
    Scott_xP said:

    @SkyNews

    BREAKING: Zelenskyy not ready to sign 'problematic' Ukraine minerals deal with US, source tells Sky News

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1893253918232121492

    Daily Mail thnks otherwise

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14423219/volodymyr-zelensky-surrenders-donald-trump-sign-mineral-deal-hours.html
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,628
    HYUFD said:

    I see we have reached the 'fire Generals who might be suspect' stage of the take-over of America.

    Don't want anyone at the top who actually really believes they serve the Constitution and not the King do we?

    The general was fired as he was too pro EDI for Trump
    The general was fired because he was too black. Let's not pretend.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,156

    Peter Hitchens gave a good interview on Talk TV which was I think summarises my views on the latest developments on Ukraine.

    https://youtu.be/ImBw4yFbktY?si=sfgnMFQH1HpheAT6

    "I don't remember anyone saying when the Americans pulled out of Vietnam - let's send lots of British troops to replace them"

    That’s because the British Government and the vast majority of people in the U.K. did not support South Vietnam in any meaningful sense.

    The majority, Government and opposition in the UK support Ukraine.
    It's also because, long before the end of the war, the vast majority of the South Vietnamese wanted peace on any terms.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,032

    Eabhal said:

    Nazi salutes are getting normalised in the US now. I wonder if we'll get to a stage where not doing one sees you either primaried or losing your federal contract?

    It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.

    And then the feckers try to gaslight the world by saying that it wasn't a Nazi salute.
    A good slice of this board thinks posters are being hysterical when they point out that politicians who support the AfD, Putin, use Nazi language and make Nazi salutes might err, be a bit Nazi.
    It’s not a particularly helpful term - because it immediately makes people think about toothbrush-moustaches and German dictators.

    It’s the same with “fascist”. The left abused the terms for so long to try and demonise their moderate opponents that they no longer have the power to shock.



    I thought the right were all for plain speaking. If they are nazis call them nazis?
    The AfD robokaren, Alice Weidel, went on German TV to rail against censorship and political correctness. The host said something along the lines of, "I agree with the nazi slut, let's have no more correctness." She then unsuccessfully tried to sue NDR to prevent them from showing it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,835

    Sean_F said:

    Peter Hitchens gave a good interview on Talk TV which was I think summarises my views on the latest developments on Ukraine.

    https://youtu.be/ImBw4yFbktY?si=sfgnMFQH1HpheAT6

    "I don't remember anyone saying when the Americans pulled out of Vietnam - let's send lots of British troops to replace them"

    Hitchens has always claimed that he shed tears of joy when the Iron Curtain came down, but he always repeats Russian talking points, and plainly sees Russia as the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
    Peter Hitchens is a nutcase.

    He hates people agreeing with him, and will always change his position so he's as negative and forlorn as possible.
    Nevertheless, he is right to question the wisdom of the desperate need to continue this war without US support, when the US was the driving force behind our participation in it.

    He agrees with the need to be more operationally independent in defence, but there's a big difference between spending more on defence so our Islands are better defended, and spending more on defence so we can give it to Ukraine. Even the type of defence equipment and personell needed in each case seem very different.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,586
    DougSeal said:

    Maybe we can all stick it to Trump by declaring our pronouns at the start of each post? That’ll learn him.

    Embrace the paper straw!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,835
    Jonathan said:

    Hitchens argument is bizarre. However much noise he creates, he will never match his brother.

    What is bizarre about it?
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