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PB Predictions Competition 2025 – The Entries – politicalbetting.com
PB Predictions Competition 2025 – The Entries – politicalbetting.com
For Question 7. we have a low entry of 88 AfD seats, a high of 200, and the average of all entries is 137 (rounded). There’s not long to wait to see how we all fared on that question.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_J4XbFRRqw
150 is based on the Left making it, and BSW and FDP not.
Last time the polling was pretty close to the actual AfD vote, if anything it slightly overstated it.
Every day Musk is posting disinformation about Germany and the AfD, I think it's time for Europe to have the self-respect to block foreign-owned media that quite deliberately spreads lies with the intention of interfering in elections and inciting hatred. There's a big chunk of the population who get most of their news from social media.
If it was hostile Russian oligarchs owning primary information sources and misusing them in this way I think we would have blocked them already.
I think Linke will do well, they seem to genuinely have momentum.
CDU may even have a choice between SDP and Greens as coalition partners. If all parties make the threshold it may need to be a 3-way coalition.
https://www.politics.co.uk/news/2025/02/21/donald-trump-is-the-bravest-man-that-i-know-says-nigel-farage/
Speaking of which, one urgent priority is a European reusable launch capability, otherwise this kind of extortion will become routine.
(Reuters) - U.S. negotiators pressing Kyiv for access to Ukraine's critical minerals have raised the possibility of cutting the country's access to Elon Musk's vital Starlink satellite internet system, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
https://x.com/phildstewart/status/1893094074166472944
It will take years, so we need to start now.
https://x.com/rpsagainsttrump/status/1893118619258610168?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
If by some miracle there is a polling error that brings SPD above AfD that'd be even better. Helps change the narrative around the results, even if it has limited impact on the seats.
Thanks to all those who entered!
In the meantime the Chinese Navy is causing mischief in the Tasman Sea.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-21/chinese-warship-pilot-hazard-east-coast/104966826?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=twitter&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web
Meanwhile, The Reform logo points East towards Moscow. Hiding in plain sight.
Prior experience of being ratfucked, I guess.
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/not-starlink-taiwan-wants-amazon-to-fight/
.. Starlink is not currently available in Taiwan, as earlier discussions reportedly broke down over Taiwan’s requirement that any joint venture include a local entity holding a majority share.
Taiwanese officials explained that they could not proceed with Starlink because Musk’s company refused to agree to a partnership in which a Taiwanese entity, such as Chunghwa Telecom, would hold at least 50% ownership, as mandated by Taiwan’s government….
FOX NEWS: MSNBC said "Pam Bondi brings politics back to the AG office." They go after you for thinking it was a good idea to attend CPAC and record a podcast with Ted Cruz. How do you respond?
BONDI: Well, I had a great time yesterday with Sen. Cruz and my friend Benny Johnson who was there. I recorded something for him if they want to see that also ... they don't know the team that's hit them.
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1893020278382342590
My prediction was 166 AFD. I'm hoping to be surprised on the downside.
Obviously those living in the Putin Reform media bubble will if anything be pleased at what’s going on.
So almost everyone will be hoping I get the points!
It looked last year like the BSW might be the last nail in the coffin for the Left. They were down to 3% in the polls, in the state elections in new Bundesländer they were partly replaced by the BSW. Eg in Thüringen they dropped from first place to 4th.
But the BSW have looked increasingly like an incompetent personality cult, and their success in those elections means that they are now in coalition governments with the SPD in Brandenburg, and with a CDU-led government in Thüringen, which must have annoyed quite a lot of their voters.
And these are the people JD Vance thinks would be great for Germany .
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2glydm3gmo
Can’t they kick the can down the road or alternatively just send the King to Washington .
January 26: +4%
February 18: -8%
- Ipsos -
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1893073177107923098
https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/amazon-licence-to-kill-james-bond-jeff-bezos-nc6t9gsvz
The smaller firms find that the cost of labour has gone up - they pay it. The big corporates try “but policy is to pay brick layers 2p a week” - and find no brick layers.
In the supply chain, you get idiots trying to ramp prices. Often in concert.
Last year, you had an attempt to ramp the price of marble tiles - several outlets (by strange coincidence) increased their prices, together. They then whined when some enterprising chaps sent a lorry or two to Spain and Italy to pick up loads directly. There was a ramp attempted on RSJ previously - which the previous government killed by refusing to limit imports.
I wonder if we could make it necessary to put some kind of guardrails on social media. A one pound fee to join might stop the bots.
I haven't heard back.
Fair to say the Chinese “live fire” exercises in the Tasman have alarmed both Australia and New Zealand and both Governments are using the incident as justification to increase defence spending.
In truth, the Chinese were doing nothing wrong as they were in international waters and NZ Defence Minister Judith Collin’s admitted both Australia and New Zealand had done the same in the South China Sea but this projection of power by Beijing reminds us the new global disorder is multi-faceted.
With Beijing diplomatically very active in the Southwest Pacific currently, both Canberra and Wellington are feeling fragile given the sense Washington is no longer the ally it was and with the European powers coming to terms with the new US-Russian rapprochement and its implications.
But ultimately perhaps certain platforms will need to be banned if they can't stop extremism.
This is outrageous. To coerce Ukraine to sign over its natural resources, Elon Musk is threatening to cut off Starlink. I guess the appropriate response from the EU would be to ban sale of Tesla’s if he does that
https://x.com/Billbrowder/status/1893217423471337854
A golf pro friend visits the US fairly regularly and met someone who plays with Trump occasionally; he says the cheating thing is accurate though at that level of rich guy golf it's not uncommon. The big tips for caddies are for 'helping' your player with ball tampering rather than club selection.
It’s definitely time to regulate the platforms, just make them as legally accountable as publishers.
But seriously, it feels like all niceties are being dropped for thuggish exercises of power. That has to be worrying, the niceties kept the world a little safer.
That’s a geopolitical term. They are just people who needs something from them and will pay for it
Essentially they are raping America by extracting all of the goodwill value from generations of partnership and taking it for themselves
I have been fortunate that I have been offshore almost continuously since the inauguration so have not had to face these people across the dinner table. I find myself looking for excuses to continue that distancing as I would not want a permanent rift with family members or decades old friends.
Trump accused federal workers of playing golf—after spending Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday on the course himself.
You can’t make this shit up.
https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1892459440541970942
So, it seems to me the case can be made that Trump/Vance are just saying more bluntly and clearly which has always been true. The US will act in their self interest. The fact we wanted to delude ourselves for many years to give us a comfort blanket was on us, not them.
I think a case can also be made that the Lawfare of the previous administration was grossly irresponsible and a dangerous precedent. Trump should have been treated the same as everyone else before the law, he should not have been prosecuted for things that others doing the same would not have been prosecuted for.
I can sort of understand why the US might regard the Ukraine as a European problem rather than theirs.
Vance may be right about the excessive regulation of the EU in things like AI and data protection (I have sympathy with pretty much anyone criticising the bureaucratic and pointless mess of GDPR, for example).
He and even Musk may be right that the blob has simply grown out of control, more interested in feeding itself than serving the country (I have expressed similar, if more restrained views about our own country). Attacking it with callipers simply won't do, a chainsaw is needed.
I'm running out of arguments at this point but does anyone have any more? What is Trump & Co right about? Someone famous (but I am terrible with names) said if you didn't understand your opponents case then you don't even understand your own, or something like that.
They are white supremacist criminals, whose agenda is to enrich themselves at the expense of others.
I don't really think it's any more complicated than that.
I will never advocate political violence but I am starting to hope that all those years of bad diet and self abuse bring about a sudden end to the Trump presidency.
You can make this shit up. Trump does, on a minute by minute basis.
EDIT: When I say Trump, I don't mean the man himself. I don't think he understands the things that are being done in his name. I mean the guys behind the curtain.
He should have been prosecuted for the Jan 6th stuff. Taking more than 4 years to get a case to court, when the crime was committed on live TV, is moronic. The Process Stare need for 1 million pieces of paper is bullshit - a couple of the most serious charges, collect the evidence, keep it simple
When the Restoration happened here it was still with the context of killing a king and ruling without one, and that had to be in the backs if everyone's minds even though for a time they could pretend to reset.
People cannot assume Trump's damage can be fixed. He's trying to reshape how government works, and probably will even where its not with the end goal he wants.
Often the remarkable thing is how quickly normality can re-establish. Consider Germany after 1945.
Locking Luigi up was a terrible error.
But ill probably just end up seeing Trump as Saruman and Sauron as Putin or something. Damn Tolkein and his applicability vs allegory.
It's like we're living in the flashbacks of a zombie film, where you see the first news reports of mysterious new disease.
Vance and Musk are however
You can’t do the same with the economy.