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Next PM betting, Farage remains the favourite – politicalbetting.com

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,083

    Don't think Dan thinks this will happen...

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    16m
    The problem with the "Mad Man Strategy" is that after a while people stop taking you seriously. Everyone knows this is utterly insane and won't happen. So how is it putting pressure on anyone to negotiate.

    Unfortunately, his logic fails as Trump clearly is actually mad.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer

    Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal

    He looks insane
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,083
    TimS said:

    I withdrew as soon as I got the juice.
    TMI...TMI... :hushed:
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,693
    This is my last meal until dinner so it’s a shame it’s not really been up to scratch. I have an extremely early sitting (5.30-8.30) at Opheem in Birmingham. Anyone been?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,693
    Leon said:

    It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer

    Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal

    He looks insane

    Brush up on your fried breakfast offer.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,281
    edited February 5
    deleted because screwed up quotes
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    TimS said:

    Brush up on your fried breakfast offer.
    I am bewildered why an affluent man of taste - which I take you to be - would be eating in terrible fast food joints like MacD or Leon

    I mean, why???

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,127
    TimS said:

    There’s not that much difference between the two, and one very frequently evolves into the other. See Galloway.
    And lo and behold..




    'We're for the bruvs, not the sistahs'
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,092
    ydoethur said:

    Unfortunately, his logic fails as Trump clearly is actually mad.
    Which, as I say, was obvious from the campaign and the debates.

    But the low information voters of America just wanted the price of eggs to be lower.

    The sick humour of it all is eggs have never been more expensive iirc.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934
    ydoethur said:

    If Phillipson is still there in September pile your cash on her, because she must have the political survival skills of Boris Johnson on crack if she survives the next six months.
    I utterly despised Geoff Hoon and Alan Millburn in the last iteration of a Labour Government. Far too many of Starmer's Cabinet seem to have been cloned from that pair of clowns. Their cloned offspring are not Prime Ministerial material.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,281
    edited February 5
    viewcode said:

    In which case all the UK has to do is leave. No monetary offer need be offered.
    Yeah maybe it's a shit deal, but there is the question of the military base, which we should probably just let the Americans solve but this might antagonise Trump.

    Edit: TimS got there before me...
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 623
    Phil said:

    I think it’s definitely broken out of the right-wing circles the story was circulating in: The obvious attack from the left & inside government is: “we’re so hard up that benefits are being cut & our departments are being told to find cost savings 'or else' but the FO can’t magic up £18billion from the Treasury with a wave of their wand for this deal that nobody wants”
    This 'our party is ungovernable' seems to be spreading from the last government. Is modern politics now about how to implode a party e.g. SNP/Alba
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,693
    Leon said:

    I am bewildered why an affluent man of taste - which I take you to be - would be eating in terrible fast food joints like MacD or Leon

    I mean, why???

    Because I’m at Euston station, not a temple of fine gastronomy. And last night because I love a quick McDonald’s on my way to choir on Tuesdays. It’s a bit of a tradition.

    Anyway I’m making up for it with 2 Michelin stars this evening so net net my diet today is posh.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    Starmer is much more fragile than he looks

    The chances of him quitting due to a scandal or some major screw-up are being underplayed

    Ergo Farage is not value as next prime minister. The value is the Labour politician that will replace him. But who is that?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,693

    Which, as I say, was obvious from the campaign and the debates.

    But the low information voters of America just wanted the price of eggs to be lower.

    The sick humour of it all is eggs have never been more expensive iirc.
    So that’s why my Leon big breakfast cost £7.29?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,410

    On (3), the Palestinian Authority, some Israeli parties in opposition, Arab states, and most UN member states support a 2-state solution.

    On (4), if one is to have a 1-state solution, it doesn't have to involve ethnic cleansing. So, no.

    Ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity. It is not the solution to anything. It is not a starting point to anything.
    We had ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023.

    The world accepted it as it solved the problem.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,127
    Battlebus said:

    This 'our party is ungovernable' seems to be spreading from the last government. Is modern politics now about how to implode a party e.g. SNP/Alba
    If there all as shit at it as ALBA everything is copacetic. They're doing a good job at doing it to themselves mind.

    James Kelly
    @JamesKelly
    Power-crazed McEleny pushes Alba to the brink of destruction by launching yet another bogus "disciplinary" action - this time against the party's ACTING LEADER:

    https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2025/02/power-crazed-mceleny-pushes-alba-to.html

    https://x.com/JamesKelly/status/1886777897924399346
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    TimS said:

    Because I’m at Euston station, not a temple of fine gastronomy. And last night because I love a quick McDonald’s on my way to choir on Tuesdays. It’s a bit of a tradition.

    Anyway I’m making up for it with 2 Michelin stars this evening so net net my diet today is posh.
    I’d skip a meal rather than eat at McD’s or Leon
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,092
    Leon said:

    Starmer is much more fragile than he looks

    The chances of him quitting due to a scandal or some major screw-up are being underplayed

    Ergo Farage is not value as next prime minister. The value is the Labour politician that will replace him. But who is that?

    Well, Ed and Yvette look like they might lose their seats to Reform and Wes is in trouble from Gaza activists.

    Phillipson or Rayner?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,195
    edited February 5
    There are very few counties left which have not asked to delay their local elections. Currently those (from Wiki) still planning to hold them are:

    Cambs - NOC
    Herts - Con
    Lancs - Con
    Notts - Con
    Staffs - Con

    Are there any common factors in that set?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934

    We had ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023.

    The world accepted it as it solved the problem.
    Is that the most casually crass post in the history of PB?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    edited February 5
    To pursue my own chain of thought

    If Starmer goes before the end of this term (really quite likely) then surely the Labour Party will choose a woman?

    That means Cooper or Rayner should be bigger favourites and of the two Cooper is the more likely. As being less off putting to centrists than Rayner (personally I quite like Rayner)

    Anyway Farage is not value, Cooper/Rayner are value
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,602
    Nigelb said:

    A FAFO reminder from November.

    ‘We warned you,’ Arab Americans in Michigan tell Kamala Harris
    https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2024/11/6/we-warned-you-arab-americans-in-michigan-tell-kamala-harris

    And they are happy with the current state of play? I believe the technical term is “f*ckwits”
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,281

    Which, as I say, was obvious from the campaign and the debates.

    But the low information voters of America just wanted the price of eggs to be lower.

    The sick humour of it all is eggs have never been more expensive iirc.
    "‘Oh well, never mind, at least the bananas are all bendy again, aren’t they?’ Like they always fucking were.”
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,113
    FF43 said:

    The apparently sincere outrage about Chagos is baffling. There are a hundred other things I would get exercised about before that.

    It isn't moral outrage. If it was we would close the base down and give the Chagossians their island back. The UK and US have no more moral right to the island than Mauritius, but legally it's theirs, as determined by clear and well established international law. So it's entirely transactional. The British, but in reality the Americans, get their base and the Mauritians get the money from a lease, which seems to be at the going rate for such bases. Everyone is happy, except the Chagossians, but nobody cares about them.

    So Jenrick, a shadow bench member and likely next leader of the opposition calls Starmer a Quisling, and looks completely demented.
    "So it's entirely transactional."

    Good. You pay the billions that Mauritius will receive for no good reason. And if you want taxpayers to pay for it, don't ever, ever, complain about poor services in this country again.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,084
    edited February 5
    kamski said:

    "(they were never Mauritian territory but simply administered from there by the French then
    the Brits)"

    I don't think you can dismiss the claims of Mauritius quite so easily.
    Here is the summary of the 2019 ICJ advisory opinion on the matter:

    https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/169/169-20190225-SUM-01-00-EN.pdf

    when it decided 13-1 that

    having regard to international law, the process of decolonization of Mauritius was not lawfully completed when that country acceded to independence in 1968, following the separation of the Chagos Archipelago.

    the United Kingdom is under an obligation to bring to an end its administration of the Chagos Archipelago as rapidly as possible.

    all Member States are under an obligation to co-operate with the United Nations in order to complete the decolonization of Mauritius.


    The reasons are given in the document.
    Mauritius and Chagos had nothing to do with each other. They were simply part of the same BOT administrative area for the Empire's convieniance. If Chagos had been given it's own administrative area (Or at least separate to Mauritius) by the Empire there'd be no legal claim to the islands by Mauritius. It's just a technicality of international law that means they have the claim and one we should have no truck with, certainly not with an advisory opinion.
    A claim created by the hand of a Whitehall clerk.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934
    TimS said:

    Because I’m at Euston station, not a temple of fine gastronomy. And last night because I love a quick McDonald’s on my way to choir on Tuesdays. It’s a bit of a tradition.

    Anyway I’m making up for it with 2 Michelin stars this evening so net net my diet today is posh.
    Good thinking @TimS ! Throw him the breakfast ball, he'll chase that all day long. Admirable diversionary tactics!
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,602

    Airstrip One?
    Greenland?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,430

    We had ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023.

    The world accepted it as it solved the problem.
    It would be the ultimate irony if a country which only came about due to horrendous ethnic cleansing in Europe is a party to the next stage of ethnic cleansing in Gaza
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,371
    viewcode said:

    In which case all the UK has to do is leave. No monetary offer need be offered.
    We could do that. However, we then lose our base on Diego Garcia. Not that we're using the base ourselves, but our ally (for now), the US, would be very upset about losing it (and we'd lose the rent from it). If it wasn't for Diego Garcia's strategic importance, this would all have been sorted ages back.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,744
    MattW said:

    There are very few counties left which have not asked to delay their local elections. Currently those (from Wiki) still planning to hold them are:

    Cambs - NOC
    Herts - Con
    Lancs - Con
    Notts - Con
    Staffs - Con

    Are there any common factors in that set?

    They all end in 's'?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    I see Ivan has wrecklessly thrown away a cigarette, causing another Russian refinery to kaboom:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXP-N_6C5TQ&ab_channel=Kanal13
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,084
    edited February 5
    MattW said:

    There are very few counties left which have not asked to delay their local elections. Currently those (from Wiki) still planning to hold them are:

    Cambs - NOC
    Herts - Con
    Lancs - Con
    Notts - Con
    Staffs - Con

    Are there any common factors in that set?

    I think with Notts, the north of the county's administrators see themselves as very very seperate to the south (And don't want to give up the district councils), and the areas around Nottingham are paranoid they'll be reorganised into the basketcase that is Nottingham City council.
    Personally I think, at least for North Nottinghamshire a reorganisation into a unitary council makes sense.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,084

    They all end in 's'?
    Don't they all end in "shire" ?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,602
    algarkirk said:

    WRT Gaza, I don't suppose anyone is really surprised that Trump has said something like what he has.

    All politics is relative, even this one. So points:

    1) Clearly Trump intends to start a new middle east negotiation start point and position, and will have achieved this.

    2) Has anyone got a better one?

    3) I and most of us (I imagine) have long supported a two state solution. But SFAICS none of the parties do, most supporting a one state solution. So two state stuff isn't happening, not since the October massacre and Gaza'a becoming rubble.

    4) What is the best one state solution which can be regarded as possible within the obvious constraints. Is it not most likely to be a radical but reluctantly agreed modification of Trump's appaarently absurd starting point?

    Consociationalism is the only way forward
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,602
    Nigelb said:

    £1,080,000,000,000 "per capita" seems... implausible.
    I think he might have meant pro rata, but since no one actually knows what the figures are, it might just be the usual hyperbole ?
    I think he was taking the per capita figure for Mauritius and multiplying it by uk population

    So the intention was clear even if poorly laid out
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,744
    Pulpstar said:

    Don't they all end in "shire" ?
    Yes, though I was referring to the abbreviated form in which they were listed.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,233

    We could do that. However, we then lose our base on Diego Garcia. Not that we're using the base ourselves, but our ally (for now), the US, would be very upset about losing it (and we'd lose the rent from it). If it wasn't for Diego Garcia's strategic importance, this would all have been sorted ages back.
    The US wouldn't lose a thing. They wouldn't move out of "Freedom's Footprint" and nobody could or would kick them out.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,693
    Leon said:

    I’d skip a meal rather than eat at McD’s or Leon
    I’ve already established this week that my liking of McDonald’s is a truly minority position on this site. I seem to be in a minority of 1. But I sincerely enjoy my trips to Maccies.

    Think of it as my one contrarian opinion, leavening an otherwise canonical centrist dad mindset. All of us should have one. @Luckyguy1983 has Truss, I have McDonalds.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,502

    Consociationalism is the only way forward
    The classic essay question: "Does the success of consociationalism in Northern Ireland provide a template for other conflicts (e.g. Israel-Palestine)?"
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,342

    Is that the most casually crass post in the history of PB?
    No. It expresses a very unpleasant truth.

    Ethnic cleansing is a war crime, like the use of starvation against enemy civilians.

    But, the world frequently turns a blind eye to both.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295

    I think he was taking the per capita figure for Mauritius and multiplying it by uk population

    So the intention was clear even if poorly laid out
    Actually I’m not sure what I was doing. I’d just emerged from a siesta where I “dreamt of a number” then I wrote it down

    Mind you that seems to be what’s happened in realty. The Mauritians said “what would be a dream number, for us?”

    “Eighteen billion?”

    Everyone laughs

    Two weeks later

    “What, they’re REALLY giving us eighteen billion? To TAKE their property?!”
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,371

    We had ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023.

    The world accepted it as it solved the problem.
    I don't think the world accepted it as it "solved the problem". The world decided it was impotent to do much about it.

    Ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity. The world has sometimes failed to stop ethnic cleansing, but that doesn't change the horrendous and barbaric nature of the act.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,195
    Pulpstar said:

    I think with Notts, the north of the county's administrators see themselves as very very seperate to the south (And don't want to give up the district councils), and the areas around Nottingham are paranoid they'll be reorganised into the basketcase that is Nottingham City council.
    What do you think the Tory and Lab view is of their prospects in Notts?

    According to my local Ashfield Independent news sheet the Independent Alliance are the Opposition, and are saying they want to take control (but they would).

    They have certainly been running a sectarian rhetoric.

    For AIs, Zadrozny is due to be in Crown Court in March, which imo *should* lead them to lean the other way.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,195
    Sean_F said:

    No. It expresses a very unpleasant truth.

    Ethnic cleansing is a war crime, like the use of starvation against enemy civilians.

    But, the world frequently turns a blind eye to both.
    Armenia accepted the expulsion in the "peace agreement", I think.

    Presumably not voluntarily; they got a beasting.

    I'm not sure what can be done in those circumstances.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,813

    "So it's entirely transactional."

    Good. You pay the billions that Mauritius will receive for no good reason. And if you want taxpayers to pay for it, don't ever, ever, complain about poor services in this country again.
    Billions over a hundred years. No-one ever quantifies similar leases in this way. The payment is the difference between legal occupation and illegal occupation of the island like any rent. It isn't completely optional, although I realise the Americans will keep the base regardless. Which is why up until now they have been the ones pushing for this deal.

    It seems to be about the going rate for such overseas military bases. Maybe the government could get a better price - I don't know - in general they don't seem particularly good negotiators. But there's a difference between poor negotiator and Quisling.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,371
    Dura_Ace said:

    The US wouldn't lose a thing. They wouldn't move out of "Freedom's Footprint" and nobody could or would kick them out.
    The US would face a difficult diplomatic and legal situation. This would have been a problem before Trump. Now, of course, Trump threatens difficult diplomatic and legal situations three times before breakfast.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,693

    I see Ivan has wrecklessly thrown away a cigarette, causing another Russian refinery to kaboom:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXP-N_6C5TQ&ab_channel=Kanal13

    On a related note, some graphics have been circulating of the USA’s main trade relationships - whom it imports from and exports to.

    Here are the exports:



    They highlight something the Americans have really understated in recent years, and which largely explains their economic outperformance vs the rest of the West. They have become a petro-state. Largest oil producer in the world. One of the largest gas producers. Forget the Saudis or Russia.

    Ukraine blowing up Russian refineries is very much in US national interests. Hopefully that’ll focus Trump and Musk’s minds.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,281
    Pulpstar said:

    Mauritius and Chagos had nothing to do with each other. They were simply part of the same BOT administrative area for the Empire's convieniance. If Chagos had been given it's own administrative area (Or at least separate to Mauritius) by the Empire there'd be no legal claim to the islands by Mauritius. It's just a technicality of international law that means they have the claim and one we should have no truck with, certainly not with an advisory opinion.
    A claim created by the hand of a Whitehall clerk.
    Of course it's a bit more complicated than that. And the British colony was called 'Mauritius'. The term British Overseas Territory was introduced in 2002 (if that's what you mean by BOT), so not really relevant.

    The British Indian Ocean Territory was created from islands that were part of Mauritius and Seychelles at the end of British rule in 1965 explicitly in order to create a military base. The islands from the Seychelles have been 'given back' to the Seychelles. The Chagos Islands had been governed by the British from Mauritius from 1815 to 1965.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    The value (as per the header) probably is in a Labour politician but which one? There's no generic 'Labour not SKS' option. The other problem with this market (Next PM) is Labour could win the next election under Starmer in which case settlement lies a long way off. We could be talking the 30s.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,410

    I don't think the world accepted it as it "solved the problem". The world decided it was impotent to do much about it.

    Ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity. The world has sometimes failed to stop ethnic cleansing, but that doesn't change the horrendous and barbaric nature of the act.
    Have any sanctions being placed on Azerbaijan's leaders ?

    Has South Africa taken Azerbaijan to court as it did Israel ?

    The response of the world was "unpleasant and unfortunate but at least it ends the problem".
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,371
    tlg86 said:

    The classic essay question: "Does the success of consociationalism in Northern Ireland provide a template for other conflicts (e.g. Israel-Palestine)?"
    Presumably more advanced courses set the essay questions: "Does the experience of consociationalism in Lebanon provide a template for other conflicts (e.g. Israel-Palestine)?"
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,371
    Sean_F said:

    No. It expresses a very unpleasant truth.

    Ethnic cleansing is a war crime, like the use of starvation against enemy civilians.

    But, the world frequently turns a blind eye to both.
    Is the solution to this to encourage more war crimes? No.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295

    Is the solution to this to encourage more war crimes? No.
    What if the Gazans depart voluntarily? For a better life elsewhere (not hard)?

    Presumably that’s ok?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,693
    kamski said:

    Of course it's a bit more complicated than that. And the British colony was called 'Mauritius'. The term British Overseas Territory was introduced in 2002 (if that's what you mean by BOT), so not really relevant.

    The British Indian Ocean Territory was created from islands that were part of Mauritius and Seychelles at the end of British rule in 1965 explicitly in order to create a military base. The islands from the Seychelles have been 'given back' to the Seychelles. The Chagos Islands had been governed by the British from Mauritius from 1815 to 1965.
    Similar to a few other post-colonial handovers, including originally giving PNG to Australia.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520

    And lo and behold..


    'We're for the bruvs, not the sistahs'
    It'd be nice to be surprised.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,597

    I don't think the world accepted it as it "solved the problem". The world decided it was impotent to do much about it.

    Ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity. The world has sometimes failed to stop ethnic cleansing, but that doesn't change the horrendous and barbaric nature of the act.
    Of course it's barbaric. But let's get real about it. It also sometimes solves long-standing problems. That was why Germans were ethnically cleansed from lands they had lived in for centuries at the end of WW2. It's why the same happened to Greeks and Turks in Greece and Turkey at the end of WW1. What was acceptable and - oh the irony! - diverse in multi-ethnic Empires became a huge issue under nationalism.

    I do not advocate it. But let's not pretend that it hasn't been very convenient indeed for Western Europe. And we did not do anything about it not because we couldn't but because we did not want to, indeed encouraged it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785
    ydoethur said:

    If Phillipson is still there in September pile your cash on her, because she must have the political survival skills of Boris Johnson on crack if she survives the next six months.
    I appreciate that you dislike her about the same as I dislike Streeting, but both of us need to remember that we are not the electorate.

    Both are contenders for next but one Labour leader. I think that it may well be a bit of a poisoned chalice if Starmer and Labour are still polling like this in 2028, but Rayner is always up for a scrap, and while anathema to Tory snobs could get a fair number of the Lab to Green switchers back, and motivate some of the Corbynite. I think she is a very shrewd politician.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    edited February 5
    Someone needs to stop Starmer before it’s too late. Now the British government itself is briefing against him

    “Now @hzeffman quotes “very senior” government figures saying the Chagos deal is “terrible,” “mad” and “impossible to understand” — via @BlewettSam Playbook

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1887041095571247155?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198

    On (3), the Palestinian Authority, some Israeli parties in opposition, Arab states, and most UN member states support a 2-state solution.

    On (4), if one is to have a 1-state solution, it doesn't have to involve ethnic cleansing. So, no.

    Ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity. It is not the solution to anything. It is not a starting point to anything.
    Well we have stood idly by while it has been going on in the West Bank so have no moral higher ground on this.

    Something needs to be done. Neither parts wants peace with the other. Co-existence is not going to happen.

    If this starts a process and a dialogue that ends with a peaceful settlement then good.

    The UN can pass whatever resolutions it wants. It is toothless. Israel will, enabled by its allies, do what it wants without any comeback. That is the reality we are working with so we have to adapt to it.

    Quite frankly the sooner it is sorted the better.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,563
    TimS said:

    I’ve already established this week that my liking of McDonald’s is a truly minority position on this site. I seem to be in a minority of 1. But I sincerely enjoy my trips to Maccies.

    Think of it as my one contrarian opinion, leavening an otherwise canonical centrist dad mindset. All of us should have one. @Luckyguy1983 has Truss, I have McDonalds.
    My tip for snacking at Euston is the Quaker cafe on the opposite side of Euston Road. They don't do fry-ups but the ambience is a world away.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,410

    Is that the most casually crass post in the history of PB?
    Only if you think reality is crass.

    But interesting that you get more upset about someone saying that the world accepted ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh than you are by the ethnic cleansing itself.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    Starmer is a Chinese plant? The Chinese have some blackmail shit going on?

    We have to contemplate these possibilities because nothing else fits
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,693

    Have any sanctions being placed on Azerbaijan's leaders ?

    Has South Africa taken Azerbaijan to court as it did Israel ?

    The response of the world was "unpleasant and unfortunate but at least it ends the problem".
    Azerbaijan is another example of the geopolitical blinder that Erdogan and Turkey have been playing in recent years. He’s pulled off a military victory and a humanitarian crime with echoes of 1916 and few people batted an eyelid.

    A nasty piece of work, but he has played his international hand brilliantly. Turkey now effectively controls a portion of the Caucasus, repeatedly bests Russia and calls its bluff, most recently of course in Syria, and has spread a new form of Sunni islamist capitalism that is not a million miles from 18th and 19th century European Protestantism.

    One of the surprises in my visit to Senegal last December was the number of Turkish funded mosques and schools in the North. You expect to see Chinese investment but the pervasiveness of the Turks is a surprise.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 891

    Is the solution to this to encourage more war crimes? No.
    Examples of ethnic cleansing that have become accepted (some probably count as genocide)
    1) Most of N America
    2) Large parts of S America
    3) Australia
    4) Caribbean
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,371

    Have any sanctions being placed on Azerbaijan's leaders ?

    Has South Africa taken Azerbaijan to court as it did Israel ?

    The response of the world was "unpleasant and unfortunate but at least it ends the problem".
    The response of the world was, sadly, "unpleasant and unfortunate but we're not going to do anything about it". I can't see anyone saying "but at least it ends the problem". The European Parliament called it ethnic cleansing, as did the Cypriot government and the French Senate. The Biden administration criticised Azerbaijan and collected data on events, but stopped short of calling it ethnic cleansing. The UK also ducked the term "ethnic cleansing". The Council of Europe was critical. They and the UN both sent missions to observe the situation. None of them said anything like "but at least it ends the problem".
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,975
    Leon said:

    Someone needs to stop Starmer before it’s too late. Now the British government itself is briefing against him

    “Now @hzeffman quotes “very senior” government figures saying the Chagos deal is “terrible,” “mad” and “impossible to understand” — via @BlewettSam Playbook

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1887041095571247155?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    It seems to be a cabal of lawyers (Starmer, Hermer, Sands et al) who have cooked up this fiasco
    Shakespeare wasn't all wrong

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477

    My tip for snacking at Euston is the Quaker cafe on the opposite side of Euston Road. They don't do fry-ups but the ambience is a world away.
    You lost me at don't do fry ups.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    geoffw said:

    It seems to be a cabal of lawyers (Starmer, Hermer, Sands et al) who have cooked up this fiasco
    Shakespeare wasn't all wrong

    Yes. I think it is literally those three
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    TimS said:

    2 fast food meals in a row. After yesterday evening’s delicious Maccie Ds on Oxford Street it’s breakfast at Euston. In…Leon.

    Always disappointing. One tiny sliver of bacon, an OK sausage, some fancy (ie tinned tomato flavoured) baked beans, and 2 flabby fried eggs for £7.29.

    I did consider the spoons, which would have been much better value for money, but I feared missing the train.

    Leon is poor quality yet ubiquitous. You'd have thought it would improve or disappear.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,113
    FF43 said:

    Billions over a hundred years. No-one ever quantifies similar leases in this way. The payment is the difference between legal occupation and illegal occupation of the island like any rent. It isn't completely optional, although I realise the Americans will keep the base regardless. Which is why up until now they have been the ones pushing for this deal.

    It seems to be about the going rate for such overseas military bases. Maybe the government could get a better price - I don't know - in general they don't seem particularly good negotiators. But there's a difference between poor negotiator and Quisling.
    " No-one ever quantifies similar leases in this way. "

    Perhaps because there isn't really anything 'similar'.

    And as I said: if you want to pay for it: go ahead. If you think taxpayers will want to, then you're in for a rude awakening.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,410
    TimS said:

    Azerbaijan is another example of the geopolitical blinder that Erdogan and Turkey have been playing in recent years. He’s pulled off a military victory and a humanitarian crime with echoes of 1916 and few people batted an eyelid.

    A nasty piece of work, but he has played his international hand brilliantly. Turkey now effectively controls a portion of the Caucasus, repeatedly bests Russia and calls its bluff, most recently of course in Syria, and has spread a new form of Sunni islamist capitalism that is not a million miles from 18th and 19th century European Protestantism.

    One of the surprises in my visit to Senegal last December was the number of Turkish funded mosques and schools in the North. You expect to see Chinese investment but the pervasiveness of the Turks is a surprise.
    Erdogan has even managed to survive 60% inflation and mishandling a natural disaster.

    I can see why Trump admires him.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198

    My tip for snacking at Euston is the Quaker cafe on the opposite side of Euston Road. They don't do fry-ups but the ambience is a world away.
    My favourite snack at Euston was three or four pints of Summer Lightning in the Doric Arch before catching a train back to Durham.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,084
    Trump's plan for Gaza is bonkers but it's not the worst idea. Jordan and Egypt have said they're out. Which I suppose leaves Lebanon & Syria...
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,541
    If we still had newspapers worth a damn they'd be sending people off to Mauritius to obtain the inside view (and the secret text) from the other side.

    If there's a reasonable explantation, why can't Starmer just tell us? Bet it's not signed in public.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,432
    Leon said:

    It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer

    Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal

    He looks insane

    The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu.
    I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.

    I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    Leon said:

    To pursue my own chain of thought

    If Starmer goes before the end of this term (really quite likely) then surely the Labour Party will choose a woman?

    That means Cooper or Rayner should be bigger favourites and of the two Cooper is the more likely. As being less off putting to centrists than Rayner (personally I quite like Rayner)

    Anyway Farage is not value, Cooper/Rayner are value

    I'd consider 8/1 for "Labour woman" if it were quoted.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934
    edited February 5
    kinabalu said:

    Leon is poor quality yet ubiquitous. You'd have thought it would improve or disappear.
    That is what I have been banging on about since his first Chagos post.🤣
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,220
    edited February 5

    My tip for snacking at Euston is the Quaker cafe on the opposite side of Euston Road. They don't do fry-ups but the ambience is a world away.
    They do porridge, presumably? In little sachets that they pop in the microwave? :wink:
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,693
    Dopermean said:

    Examples of ethnic cleansing that have become accepted (some probably count as genocide)
    1) Most of N America
    2) Large parts of S America
    3) Australia
    4) Caribbean
    Those 4 are more gebocidal (deliberately or accidentally) than what’s currently understood by ethnic cleansing.

    Ethnic cleansing means communities move in opposite directions to their own “homelands”, leaving 2 or more ethnically or nationally homogeneous communities.

    So the examples I’d have in mind are Indian partition, post-Ottoman movements of Turks and Greeks, and conceivably the movement of black South Africans into bantustans and native Americans into reservations, though those were very small scale compared to the other forms of oppression involved at the time.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,693

    You lost me at don't do fry ups.
    To be fair, in substantive terms Leon “don’t do fry ups”. They pretend, but fail. Spoons do good ones. Next time I’ll get there a bit earlier and have a spoons full English.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,432
    TimS said:

    I’ve already established this week that my liking of McDonald’s is a truly minority position on this site. I seem to be in a minority of 1. But I sincerely enjoy my trips to Maccies.

    Think of it as my one contrarian opinion, leavening an otherwise canonical centrist dad mindset. All of us should have one. @Luckyguy1983 has Truss, I have McDonalds.
    You are not alone. I am partial, every now and then. It works on the same principle as Green King IPA. You know what you are going to get every time. Same with the beer - if you see Green King IPA you know what you will get. If you see Old Tom's Cockwombler, you are not quite so sure.*

    *In beer I'd prefer the Cockwombler, but for a quick easy bite to eat, McDonalds is fine.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,092
    edited February 5
    geoffw said:

    It seems to be a cabal of lawyers (Starmer, Hermer, Sands et al) who have cooked up this fiasco
    Shakespeare wasn't all wrong

    Morgan must be steaming. This is wiping his grid clean day after day when they want to talking about nhs, schools and bus services.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,541
    Selebian said:

    They do porridge, presumably? In little sachets that they pop in the microwave? :wink:
    Down one of the sidestreets between King's Cross and Euston there used to be dirty little place called the Victory Cafe. Very cheap breakfast.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,220
    kinabalu said:

    Leon is poor quality yet ubiquitous. You'd have thought it would improve or disappear.
    Are we still talking about the fast food chain? :wink:
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,693

    That is what I have been banging on about since his first Chagos post.🤣
    I only now made the connection with Byron, the burger joint. Are there fast food outlets called Eadric and SeanT out there?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    Pulpstar said:

    Trump's plan for Gaza is bonkers but it's not the worst idea. Jordan and Egypt have said they're out. Which I suppose leaves Lebanon & Syria...

    As usual with Trump, "plan" is an overly weighty description.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198
    Pulpstar said:

    Trump's plan for Gaza is bonkers but it's not the worst idea. Jordan and Egypt have said they're out. Which I suppose leaves Lebanon & Syria...

    How about the UK. Plenty of people here support the Gazans, perhaps they can accomodate them here.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,540
    TimS said:

    I only now made the connection with Byron, the burger joint. Are there fast food outlets called Eadric and SeanT out there?
    I suspect by now he has gone well beyond Five Guys
  • TimS said:

    Those 4 are more gebocidal (deliberately or accidentally) than what’s currently understood by ethnic cleansing.

    Ethnic cleansing means communities move in opposite directions to their own “homelands”, leaving 2 or more ethnically or nationally homogeneous communities.

    So the examples I’d have in mind are Indian partition, post-Ottoman movements of Turks and Greeks, and conceivably the movement of black South Africans into bantustans and native Americans into reservations, though those were very small scale compared to the other forms of oppression involved at the time.
    East Prussia/Kaliningrad?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,973
    Taz said:

    Well we have stood idly by while it has been going on in the West Bank so have no moral higher ground on this.

    Something needs to be done. Neither parts wants peace with the other. Co-existence is not going to happen.

    If this starts a process and a dialogue that ends with a peaceful settlement then good.

    The UN can pass whatever resolutions it wants. It is toothless. Israel will, enabled by its allies, do what it wants without any comeback. That is the reality we are working with so we have to adapt to it.

    Quite frankly the sooner it is sorted the better.
    This argument is just the inverse of what some lefty numpties say about Israel. The equivalent would be allowing Iran to evict everyone in Israel back to Europe*. Indeed, "From the river to the sea" was probably a Zionist slogan to begin with.

    *I appreciate that a lot of Israelis came from other parts of the Middle East/Africa.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934
    TimS said:

    I only now made the connection with Byron, the burger joint. Are there fast food outlets called Eadric and SeanT out there?
    I am sure there will be a LadyG. chippy in Coventry.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295

    The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu.
    I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.

    I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
    You are a scientist who until recently was adamant it came from the wet market. Now it has been universally accepted it came from the lab, “oh who cares let’s move on no one wants to think about all that”
  • Lovely PMI report for January. Highlights include:

    'incoming new work declined in January'
    'pace of job shedding accelerated to its sharpest for four years'
    'overall rate of cost inflation was the highest for nine months'
    'robust and accelerated rise in average prices charged by service sector firms'
    '50.8 in January....joint-lowest for 15 months'
    ' heightened risk aversion among corporate clients as well as delayed investment plans'
    ' weak consumer confidence and cutbacks to non-essential household spending'
    'many firms also linked lower new orders to weaker business confidence in the wake of the Autumn Budget'

    I could go on. It's pretty grim. No or little growth, higher inflation, less employment.

    https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/9b1d7da04ed34801a47d43b37667529b

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,955
    TimS said:

    I only now made the connection with Byron, the burger joint. Are there fast food outlets called Eadric and SeanT out there?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leon_Restaurants
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byron_Hamburgers
    https://the-cosmic-cartoonverse-renaissance.fandom.com/wiki/Eadric_Pappworth
    https://www.instagram.com/ladythomestylecuisine/#
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,369
    TimS said:

    I’ve already established this week that my liking of McDonald’s is a truly minority position on this site. I seem to be in a minority of 1. But I sincerely enjoy my trips to Maccies.

    Think of it as my one contrarian opinion, leavening an otherwise canonical centrist dad mindset. All of us should have one. @Luckyguy1983 has Truss, I have McDonalds.
    It's a harmless, if misguided, aberration among your otherwise blameless set of proclivities. I go off-piste on the monarchy (enthusiastically pro).
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,487

    It would be the ultimate irony if a country which only came about due to horrendous ethnic cleansing in Europe is a party to the next stage of ethnic cleansing in Gaza
    Learned behaviour
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934
    Pulpstar said:

    Trump's plan for Gaza is bonkers but it's not the worst idea. Jordan and Egypt have said they're out. Which I suppose leaves Lebanon & Syria...

    It is from the mind of a madman. The Riviera of the Middle East? Didn't that used to be Beirut until Israel razed it to the ground in the 1970s?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    Sean_F said:

    Empires are not all bad, and the end of empires is not all good.

    For a lot of people, an imperial overlord, however exploitative, who has no dog in the fight, other than collecting taxes and raising soldiers, is preferable to finding themselves under the local ethnic or religious majority who hate them.
    And how does this sentiment find its practical outlet?
This discussion has been closed.