WRT Gaza, I don't suppose anyone is really surprised that Trump has said something like what he has.
All politics is relative, even this one. So points:
1) Clearly Trump intends to start a new middle east negotiation start point and position, and will have achieved this.
2) Has anyone got a better one?
3) I and most of us (I imagine) have long supported a two state solution. But SFAICS none of the parties do, most supporting a one state solution. So two state stuff isn't happening, not since the October massacre and Gaza'a becoming rubble.
4) What is the best one state solution which can be regarded as possible within the obvious constraints. Is it not most likely to be a radical but reluctantly agreed modification of Trump's appaarently absurd starting point?
On (3), the Palestinian Authority, some Israeli parties in opposition, Arab states, and most UN member states support a 2-state solution.
On (4), if one is to have a 1-state solution, it doesn't have to involve ethnic cleansing. So, no.
Ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity. It is not the solution to anything. It is not a starting point to anything.
Well we have stood idly by while it has been going on in the West Bank so have no moral higher ground on this.
Something needs to be done. Neither parts wants peace with the other. Co-existence is not going to happen.
If this starts a process and a dialogue that ends with a peaceful settlement then good.
The UN can pass whatever resolutions it wants. It is toothless. Israel will, enabled by its allies, do what it wants without any comeback. That is the reality we are working with so we have to adapt to it.
Quite frankly the sooner it is sorted the better.
This argument is just the inverse of what some lefty numpties say about Israel. The equivalent would be allowing Iran to evict everyone in Israel back to Europe*. Indeed, "From the river to the sea" was probably a Zionist slogan to begin with.
*I appreciate that a lot of Israelis came from other parts of the Middle East/Africa.
You are totally misunderstanding.
I am not arguing in favour of Trumps proposal.
Just pointing out something needs to be done and hoping for a peaceful settlement. Something many people don't want. They just want one side to crush the other.
Lovely PMI report for January. Highlights include:
'incoming new work declined in January' 'pace of job shedding accelerated to its sharpest for four years' 'overall rate of cost inflation was the highest for nine months' 'robust and accelerated rise in average prices charged by service sector firms' '50.8 in January....joint-lowest for 15 months' ' heightened risk aversion among corporate clients as well as delayed investment plans' ' weak consumer confidence and cutbacks to non-essential household spending' 'many firms also linked lower new orders to weaker business confidence in the wake of the Autumn Budget'
I could go on. It's pretty grim. No or little growth, higher inflation, less employment.
David Frum @davidfrum.bsky.social · 46m We've reached the chapter in Gibbon where the mad emperor is appointing magicians, acrobats, and paid agents of the Persians to the highest offices of state.
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
Brush up on your fried breakfast offer.
I am bewildered why an affluent man of taste - which I take you to be - would be eating in terrible fast food joints like MacD or Leon
I mean, why???
Because I’m at Euston station, not a temple of fine gastronomy. And last night because I love a quick McDonald’s on my way to choir on Tuesdays. It’s a bit of a tradition.
Anyway I’m making up for it with 2 Michelin stars this evening so net net my diet today is posh.
I’d skip a meal rather than eat at McD’s or Leon
I’ve already established this week that my liking of McDonald’s is a truly minority position on this site. I seem to be in a minority of 1. But I sincerely enjoy my trips to Maccies.
Think of it as my one contrarian opinion, leavening an otherwise canonical centrist dad mindset. All of us should have one. @Luckyguy1983 has Truss, I have McDonalds.
My tip for snacking at Euston is the Quaker cafe on the opposite side of Euston Road. They don't do fry-ups but the ambience is a world away.
My favourite snack at Euston was three or four pints of Summer Lightning in the Doric Arch before catching a train back to Durham.
You must be quite old and the police very tolerant if you were allowed to neck that much cheap cider under the stonework! Or so it read to me at first.
WRT Gaza, I don't suppose anyone is really surprised that Trump has said something like what he has.
All politics is relative, even this one. So points:
1) Clearly Trump intends to start a new middle east negotiation start point and position, and will have achieved this.
2) Has anyone got a better one?
3) I and most of us (I imagine) have long supported a two state solution. But SFAICS none of the parties do, most supporting a one state solution. So two state stuff isn't happening, not since the October massacre and Gaza'a becoming rubble.
4) What is the best one state solution which can be regarded as possible within the obvious constraints. Is it not most likely to be a radical but reluctantly agreed modification of Trump's appaarently absurd starting point?
On (3), the Palestinian Authority, some Israeli parties in opposition, Arab states, and most UN member states support a 2-state solution.
On (4), if one is to have a 1-state solution, it doesn't have to involve ethnic cleansing. So, no.
Ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity. It is not the solution to anything. It is not a starting point to anything.
We had ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023.
The world accepted it as it solved the problem.
I don't think the world accepted it as it "solved the problem". The world decided it was impotent to do much about it.
Ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity. The world has sometimes failed to stop ethnic cleansing, but that doesn't change the horrendous and barbaric nature of the act.
Of course it's barbaric. But let's get real about it. It also sometimes solves long-standing problems. That was why Germans were ethnically cleansed from lands they had lived in for centuries at the end of WW2. It's why the same happened to Greeks and Turks in Greece and Turkey at the end of WW1. What was acceptable and - oh the irony! - diverse in multi-ethnic Empires became a huge issue under nationalism.
I do not advocate it. But let's not pretend that it hasn't been very convenient indeed for Western Europe. And we did not do anything about it not because we couldn't but because we did not want to, indeed encouraged it.
There's a lot wrapped up in that.
Yes, Europe has carried out ethnic cleansing repeatedly. However, we also saw the development of the idea of crimes against humanity and other war crimes from the late nineteenth century onwards, culminating in the post-WWII settlement and opposition to genocide, ethnic cleansing and wars of aggression. We once accepted ethnic cleansing, but we developed to be better than that. "We used to do it" is a reason to be more vigilant about opposing it now, not an apologia for when it happens again.
The expulsion of Germans from eastern Europe, the biggest ethnic cleansing in history, sits on the cusp of a post-WWII settlement. The western Allies were strongly opposed to what happened, but basically they couldn't do anything to stop Stalin.
Has ethnic cleansing solved long-standing problems? There are, I suggest, several ways of looking at that. The first is to suggest this is a trite response. Many crimes have "solved problems". Many a murder or theft solved someone's problem. That doesn't make it right. Has "it solved my problem" ever been a good defence in a court of law?
One might see ethnic cleansing as "solving problems", but if it does so, it only does so for the side doing the cleansing, not for the side being cleansed. From a utilitarian point of view, no, the total number of problems has not gone down.
Fundamentally, however, the supposed "problems" ethnic cleansing solves are fake problems. They are problems invented by one group when they demonise another group. These are the myths of permanent security, the idea that another ethnic group can only represent a threat, a fifth column. This is the idea that a baby in Gaza is a threat because you can only see it as growing up to be a terrorist.
What is the best way forward? Is it to brush off ethnic cleansing, to say we used to do it, it can solve problems, no-one minded last time? Or is it to say, no, ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity and we should oppose it, always?
WRT Gaza, I don't suppose anyone is really surprised that Trump has said something like what he has.
All politics is relative, even this one. So points:
1) Clearly Trump intends to start a new middle east negotiation start point and position, and will have achieved this.
2) Has anyone got a better one?
3) I and most of us (I imagine) have long supported a two state solution. But SFAICS none of the parties do, most supporting a one state solution. So two state stuff isn't happening, not since the October massacre and Gaza'a becoming rubble.
4) What is the best one state solution which can be regarded as possible within the obvious constraints. Is it not most likely to be a radical but reluctantly agreed modification of Trump's appaarently absurd starting point?
On (3), the Palestinian Authority, some Israeli parties in opposition, Arab states, and most UN member states support a 2-state solution.
On (4), if one is to have a 1-state solution, it doesn't have to involve ethnic cleansing. So, no.
Ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity. It is not the solution to anything. It is not a starting point to anything.
We had ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023.
The world accepted it as it solved the problem.
I don't think the world accepted it as it "solved the problem". The world decided it was impotent to do much about it.
Ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity. The world has sometimes failed to stop ethnic cleansing, but that doesn't change the horrendous and barbaric nature of the act.
Have any sanctions being placed on Azerbaijan's leaders ?
Has South Africa taken Azerbaijan to court as it did Israel ?
The response of the world was "unpleasant and unfortunate but at least it ends the problem".
Azerbaijan is another example of the geopolitical blinder that Erdogan and Turkey have been playing in recent years. He’s pulled off a military victory and a humanitarian crime with echoes of 1916 and few people batted an eyelid.
A nasty piece of work, but he has played his international hand brilliantly. Turkey now effectively controls a portion of the Caucasus, repeatedly bests Russia and calls its bluff, most recently of course in Syria, and has spread a new form of Sunni islamist capitalism that is not a million miles from 18th and 19th century European Protestantism.
One of the surprises in my visit to Senegal last December was the number of Turkish funded mosques and schools in the North. You expect to see Chinese investment but the pervasiveness of the Turks is a surprise.
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.
I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
You are a scientist who until recently was adamant it came from the wet market. Now it has been universally accepted it came from the lab, “oh who cares let’s move on no one wants to think about all that”
It has NOT been universally accepted. Until you can understand that, there is not point discussing it. Balance of probabilities might have shifted, but we will likely never be 100%.
In reference to moving on from covid, I think that pretty much characterises what is going on in most people lives. That is not the same as ignoring lessons from the pandemic and from pursuing malfeasance from the pandemic. Go after the fraudulent suppliers of PPE. Think again about what lockdown does, should have done and what inhumanity we did in trying to save lives (funerals, births, deaths with no-one attending, kids social and academic development stunted, perhaps permanently).
The value (as per the header) probably is in a Labour politician but which one? There's no generic 'Labour not SKS' option. The other problem with this market (Next PM) is Labour could win the next election under Starmer in which case settlement lies a long way off. We could be talking the 30s.
I’ve got some thread headers today and tomorrow on who it might be and who it might not be.
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
Brush up on your fried breakfast offer.
I am bewildered why an affluent man of taste - which I take you to be - would be eating in terrible fast food joints like MacD or Leon
I mean, why???
Because I’m at Euston station, not a temple of fine gastronomy. And last night because I love a quick McDonald’s on my way to choir on Tuesdays. It’s a bit of a tradition.
Anyway I’m making up for it with 2 Michelin stars this evening so net net my diet today is posh.
I’d skip a meal rather than eat at McD’s or Leon
I’ve already established this week that my liking of McDonald’s is a truly minority position on this site. I seem to be in a minority of 1. But I sincerely enjoy my trips to Maccies.
Think of it as my one contrarian opinion, leavening an otherwise canonical centrist dad mindset. All of us should have one. @Luckyguy1983 has Truss, I have McDonalds.
It's a harmless, if misguided, aberration among your otherwise blameless set of proclivities. I go off-piste on the monarchy (enthusiastically pro).
A propos of nothing on this thread, I think that there may be a source of growth hidden from the young lady from accounts. My foray to Glasgow yesterday taught me that the cash economy is alive and well and indeed thriving there. As a consequence ... GDP may be seriously underestimated. And if this is a growing trend, then voilà! une source de croissance jusqu'alors inconnue!
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
Brush up on your fried breakfast offer.
I am bewildered why an affluent man of taste - which I take you to be - would be eating in terrible fast food joints like MacD or Leon
I mean, why???
Because I’m at Euston station, not a temple of fine gastronomy. And last night because I love a quick McDonald’s on my way to choir on Tuesdays. It’s a bit of a tradition.
Anyway I’m making up for it with 2 Michelin stars this evening so net net my diet today is posh.
I’d skip a meal rather than eat at McD’s or Leon
I’ve already established this week that my liking of McDonald’s is a truly minority position on this site. I seem to be in a minority of 1. But I sincerely enjoy my trips to Maccies.
Think of it as my one contrarian opinion, leavening an otherwise canonical centrist dad mindset. All of us should have one. @Luckyguy1983 has Truss, I have McDonalds.
My tip for snacking at Euston is the Quaker cafe on the opposite side of Euston Road. They don't do fry-ups but the ambience is a world away.
My favourite snack at Euston was three or four pints of Summer Lightning in the Doric Arch before catching a train back to Durham.
You must be quite old and the police very tolerant if you were allowed to neck that much cheap cider under the stonework! Or so it read to me at first.
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.
I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
You are a scientist who until recently was adamant it came from the wet market. Now it has been universally accepted it came from the lab, “oh who cares let’s move on no one wants to think about all that”
It has NOT been universally accepted. Until you can understand that, there is not point discussing it. Balance of probabilities might have shifted, but we will likely never be 100%.
In reference to moving on from covid, I think that pretty much characterises what is going on in most people lives. That is not the same as ignoring lessons from the pandemic and from pursuing malfeasance from the pandemic. Go after the fraudulent suppliers of PPE. Think again about what lockdown does, should have done and what inhumanity we did in trying to save lives (funerals, births, deaths with no-one attending, kids social and academic development stunted, perhaps permanently).
Ok everyone has accepted it apart from you and @bondegezou
Two bumbling centrist dad academics, the clueless vapid inane Rory Stewarts of PB. You probably go to see The Rest is Politics when they do “gigs”
WRT Gaza, I don't suppose anyone is really surprised that Trump has said something like what he has.
All politics is relative, even this one. So points:
1) Clearly Trump intends to start a new middle east negotiation start point and position, and will have achieved this.
2) Has anyone got a better one?
3) I and most of us (I imagine) have long supported a two state solution. But SFAICS none of the parties do, most supporting a one state solution. So two state stuff isn't happening, not since the October massacre and Gaza'a becoming rubble.
4) What is the best one state solution which can be regarded as possible within the obvious constraints. Is it not most likely to be a radical but reluctantly agreed modification of Trump's appaarently absurd starting point?
On (3), the Palestinian Authority, some Israeli parties in opposition, Arab states, and most UN member states support a 2-state solution.
On (4), if one is to have a 1-state solution, it doesn't have to involve ethnic cleansing. So, no.
Ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity. It is not the solution to anything. It is not a starting point to anything.
We had ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023.
The world accepted it as it solved the problem.
I don't think the world accepted it as it "solved the problem". The world decided it was impotent to do much about it.
Ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity. The world has sometimes failed to stop ethnic cleansing, but that doesn't change the horrendous and barbaric nature of the act.
Of course it's barbaric. But let's get real about it. It also sometimes solves long-standing problems. That was why Germans were ethnically cleansed from lands they had lived in for centuries at the end of WW2. It's why the same happened to Greeks and Turks in Greece and Turkey at the end of WW1. What was acceptable and - oh the irony! - diverse in multi-ethnic Empires became a huge issue under nationalism.
I do not advocate it. But let's not pretend that it hasn't been very convenient indeed for Western Europe. And we did not do anything about it not because we couldn't but because we did not want to, indeed encouraged it.
There's a lot wrapped up in that.
Yes, Europe has carried out ethnic cleansing repeatedly. However, we also saw the development of the idea of crimes against humanity and other war crimes from the late nineteenth century onwards, culminating in the post-WWII settlement and opposition to genocide, ethnic cleansing and wars of aggression. We once accepted ethnic cleansing, but we developed to be better than that. "We used to do it" is a reason to be more vigilant about opposing it now, not an apologia for when it happens again.
The expulsion of Germans from eastern Europe, the biggest ethnic cleansing in history, sits on the cusp of a post-WWII settlement. The western Allies were strongly opposed to what happened, but basically they couldn't do anything to stop Stalin.
Has ethnic cleansing solved long-standing problems? There are, I suggest, several ways of looking at that. The first is to suggest this is a trite response. Many crimes have "solved problems". Many a murder or theft solved someone's problem. That doesn't make it right. Has "it solved my problem" ever been a good defence in a court of law?
One might see ethnic cleansing as "solving problems", but if it does so, it only does so for the side doing the cleansing, not for the side being cleansed. From a utilitarian point of view, no, the total number of problems has not gone down.
Fundamentally, however, the supposed "problems" ethnic cleansing solves are fake problems. They are problems invented by one group when they demonise another group. These are the myths of permanent security, the idea that another ethnic group can only represent a threat, a fifth column. This is the idea that a baby in Gaza is a threat because you can only see it as growing up to be a terrorist.
What is the best way forward? Is it to brush off ethnic cleansing, to say we used to do it, it can solve problems, no-one minded last time? Or is it to say, no, ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity and we should oppose it, always?
I suspect that ethnic cleansing in this context would be "worse than a crime, a mistake" as the saying goes.
WRT Gaza, I don't suppose anyone is really surprised that Trump has said something like what he has.
All politics is relative, even this one. So points:
1) Clearly Trump intends to start a new middle east negotiation start point and position, and will have achieved this.
2) Has anyone got a better one?
3) I and most of us (I imagine) have long supported a two state solution. But SFAICS none of the parties do, most supporting a one state solution. So two state stuff isn't happening, not since the October massacre and Gaza'a becoming rubble.
4) What is the best one state solution which can be regarded as possible within the obvious constraints. Is it not most likely to be a radical but reluctantly agreed modification of Trump's appaarently absurd starting point?
On (3), the Palestinian Authority, some Israeli parties in opposition, Arab states, and most UN member states support a 2-state solution.
On (4), if one is to have a 1-state solution, it doesn't have to involve ethnic cleansing. So, no.
Ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity. It is not the solution to anything. It is not a starting point to anything.
We had ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023.
The world accepted it as it solved the problem.
I don't think the world accepted it as it "solved the problem". The world decided it was impotent to do much about it.
Ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity. The world has sometimes failed to stop ethnic cleansing, but that doesn't change the horrendous and barbaric nature of the act.
Of course it's barbaric. But let's get real about it. It also sometimes solves long-standing problems. That was why Germans were ethnically cleansed from lands they had lived in for centuries at the end of WW2. It's why the same happened to Greeks and Turks in Greece and Turkey at the end of WW1. What was acceptable and - oh the irony! - diverse in multi-ethnic Empires became a huge issue under nationalism.
I do not advocate it. But let's not pretend that it hasn't been very convenient indeed for Western Europe. And we did not do anything about it not because we couldn't but because we did not want to, indeed encouraged it.
There's a lot wrapped up in that.
Yes, Europe has carried out ethnic cleansing repeatedly. However, we also saw the development of the idea of crimes against humanity and other war crimes from the late nineteenth century onwards, culminating in the post-WWII settlement and opposition to genocide, ethnic cleansing and wars of aggression. We once accepted ethnic cleansing, but we developed to be better than that. "We used to do it" is a reason to be more vigilant about opposing it now, not an apologia for when it happens again.
The expulsion of Germans from eastern Europe, the biggest ethnic cleansing in history, sits on the cusp of a post-WWII settlement. The western Allies were strongly opposed to what happened, but basically they couldn't do anything to stop Stalin.
Has ethnic cleansing solved long-standing problems? There are, I suggest, several ways of looking at that. The first is to suggest this is a trite response. Many crimes have "solved problems". Many a murder or theft solved someone's problem. That doesn't make it right. Has "it solved my problem" ever been a good defence in a court of law?
One might see ethnic cleansing as "solving problems", but if it does so, it only does so for the side doing the cleansing, not for the side being cleansed. From a utilitarian point of view, no, the total number of problems has not gone down.
Fundamentally, however, the supposed "problems" ethnic cleansing solves are fake problems. They are problems invented by one group when they demonise another group. These are the myths of permanent security, the idea that another ethnic group can only represent a threat, a fifth column. This is the idea that a baby in Gaza is a threat because you can only see it as growing up to be a terrorist.
What is the best way forward? Is it to brush off ethnic cleansing, to say we used to do it, it can solve problems, no-one minded last time? Or is it to say, no, ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity and we should oppose it, always?
One point - it was not Stalin that ethnically cleansed the Germans except from the Konigsberg enclave. It was done by the Poles and Czechs (primarily) before the Communist coups. Indeed, Benes had, without irony, called for 'the final solution of the German question' in 1943, and Western Czechoslovakia was at that time under an American occupation force led by Patton. And while Bierut was a Communist, the Allies working with the Polish government in exile had established similar protocols in 1944.
Margin of error changes mean another 3-way Labour, Reform & Conservative tie in our latest @moreincommonuk.bsky.social voting intention with Tories just ahead
🌳 CON 26% (+2) 🌹 LAB 24% (-1) ➡️ REF UK 24% (-1) 🔶 LIB DEM 13% (nc) 🌍 GREEN 6% (-1) 🟡 SNP 3% (+1)
First poll with the Tories in the lead for a while.
I look forward to the next thread header saying this poll is in fact terrible news for the Conservatives and Kemi should be replaced.
I see you’re another one who cannot read.
I’ve said she should be given time but the PCP may well not give her time.
I remember getting called all sorts when I said Boris Johnson would serve less time as PM than David Cameron (pbuh) the morning after the 2019 GE and that Liz Truss wouldn’t last until the 2023 Tory conference.
Both won me lots of money and two very nice meals in London.
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.
I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
You are a scientist who until recently was adamant it came from the wet market. Now it has been universally accepted it came from the lab, “oh who cares let’s move on no one wants to think about all that”
It has NOT been universally accepted. Until you can understand that, there is not point discussing it. Balance of probabilities might have shifted, but we will likely never be 100%.
In reference to moving on from covid, I think that pretty much characterises what is going on in most people lives. That is not the same as ignoring lessons from the pandemic and from pursuing malfeasance from the pandemic. Go after the fraudulent suppliers of PPE. Think again about what lockdown does, should have done and what inhumanity we did in trying to save lives (funerals, births, deaths with no-one attending, kids social and academic development stunted, perhaps permanently).
Ok everyone has accepted it apart from you and @bondegezou
Two bumbling centrist dad academics, the clueless vapid inane Rory Stewarts of PB. You probably go to see The Rest is Politics when they do “gigs”
At the risk of triggering a jerk on this site, not Bondez I hasten to add, that is one hell of a cracking put down. Made me smile.
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.
I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
You are a scientist who until recently was adamant it came from the wet market. Now it has been universally accepted it came from the lab, “oh who cares let’s move on no one wants to think about all that”
Nonsense on a plate with gravy. There is no consensus on the origin of Covid let alone one that is universally accepted.
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.
I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
You are a scientist who until recently was adamant it came from the wet market. Now it has been universally accepted it came from the lab, “oh who cares let’s move on no one wants to think about all that”
It has NOT been universally accepted. Until you can understand that, there is not point discussing it. Balance of probabilities might have shifted, but we will likely never be 100%.
In reference to moving on from covid, I think that pretty much characterises what is going on in most people lives. That is not the same as ignoring lessons from the pandemic and from pursuing malfeasance from the pandemic. Go after the fraudulent suppliers of PPE. Think again about what lockdown does, should have done and what inhumanity we did in trying to save lives (funerals, births, deaths with no-one attending, kids social and academic development stunted, perhaps permanently).
Ok everyone has accepted it apart from you and @bondegezou
Two bumbling centrist dad academics, the clueless vapid inane Rory Stewarts of PB. You probably go to see The Rest is Politics when they do “gigs”
#metoo
I still think it could be either (well, anything on a broad range of possibilities) and that 'lab leak' covers a wide range of possibilities, of different plausibility and seriousness. We'll probably never find out unless it was (1) a lab leak (2) someone knows that and (3) they fess up. Maybe one day. Even if a 'lab leak' it's possible no one actually knows.
I'm sorry to report that I've never been to a TRIP gig, nor listened to the podcast, which may require me to tear up my centrist dad academic membership card, despite being centrist, a dad and an academic
WRT Gaza, I don't suppose anyone is really surprised that Trump has said something like what he has.
All politics is relative, even this one. So points:
1) Clearly Trump intends to start a new middle east negotiation start point and position, and will have achieved this.
2) Has anyone got a better one?
3) I and most of us (I imagine) have long supported a two state solution. But SFAICS none of the parties do, most supporting a one state solution. So two state stuff isn't happening, not since the October massacre and Gaza'a becoming rubble.
4) What is the best one state solution which can be regarded as possible within the obvious constraints. Is it not most likely to be a radical but reluctantly agreed modification of Trump's appaarently absurd starting point?
On (3), the Palestinian Authority, some Israeli parties in opposition, Arab states, and most UN member states support a 2-state solution.
On (4), if one is to have a 1-state solution, it doesn't have to involve ethnic cleansing. So, no.
Ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity. It is not the solution to anything. It is not a starting point to anything.
We had ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023.
The world accepted it as it solved the problem.
Is that the most casually crass post in the history of PB?
No. It expresses a very unpleasant truth.
Ethnic cleansing is a war crime, like the use of starvation against enemy civilians.
But, the world frequently turns a blind eye to both.
Is the solution to this to encourage more war crimes? No.
Examples of ethnic cleansing that have become accepted (some probably count as genocide) 1) Most of N America 2) Large parts of S America 3) Australia 4) Caribbean
Another example. India & Pakistan, formented by Mountbatten.
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.
I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
You are a scientist who until recently was adamant it came from the wet market. Now it has been universally accepted it came from the lab, “oh who cares let’s move on no one wants to think about all that”
Nonsense on a plate with gravy. There is no consensus on the origin of Covid let alone one that is universally accepted.
On the contrary, it remains generally accepted by scientists that the most likely source for Covid was the wet market.
There are many reasons to discount a lab leak, says Holmes, and many more pointing to a natural origin. “SARS-CoV-2-like viruses have natural transmission cycles in a region spanning Yunnan province [in China] and southwards into South-East Asia and were most likely imported into Wuhan via the wildlife trade,” he says. “All the scientific evidence points to this. There is no scientific evidence for any other hypothesis.”
“The lab leak theory remains completely unsupported and, worse, incoherent and inconsistent, frequently requiring complex conspiracies to be a viable hypothesis,” says David Robertson at the University of Glasgow, UK. “Indeed, it seems clear that there’s a political agenda behind much of the proponents of the lab leak theory.”
We probably won’t ever know for sure. “I honestly can’t see any other new evidence coming to light,” says Holmes. “Research on this matter in China is at a standstill as the official narrative is that the virus is not from China. Besides, it is now far too late to find any intermediate animal species that still has the virus or antibodies to it.”
Does it even matter at this point? Yes, says Robertson. “The lab leak theory has become part of a wider, anti-science disinformation landscape. This is all very unfortunate, as preparedness to virus threats requires strong international cooperation and evidence-based response.”
WRT Gaza, I don't suppose anyone is really surprised that Trump has said something like what he has.
All politics is relative, even this one. So points:
1) Clearly Trump intends to start a new middle east negotiation start point and position, and will have achieved this.
2) Has anyone got a better one?
3) I and most of us (I imagine) have long supported a two state solution. But SFAICS none of the parties do, most supporting a one state solution. So two state stuff isn't happening, not since the October massacre and Gaza'a becoming rubble.
4) What is the best one state solution which can be regarded as possible within the obvious constraints. Is it not most likely to be a radical but reluctantly agreed modification of Trump's appaarently absurd starting point?
On (3), the Palestinian Authority, some Israeli parties in opposition, Arab states, and most UN member states support a 2-state solution.
On (4), if one is to have a 1-state solution, it doesn't have to involve ethnic cleansing. So, no.
Ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity. It is not the solution to anything. It is not a starting point to anything.
We had ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023.
The world accepted it as it solved the problem.
I don't think the world accepted it as it "solved the problem". The world decided it was impotent to do much about it.
Ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity. The world has sometimes failed to stop ethnic cleansing, but that doesn't change the horrendous and barbaric nature of the act.
Of course it's barbaric. But let's get real about it. It also sometimes solves long-standing problems. That was why Germans were ethnically cleansed from lands they had lived in for centuries at the end of WW2. It's why the same happened to Greeks and Turks in Greece and Turkey at the end of WW1. What was acceptable and - oh the irony! - diverse in multi-ethnic Empires became a huge issue under nationalism.
I do not advocate it. But let's not pretend that it hasn't been very convenient indeed for Western Europe. And we did not do anything about it not because we couldn't but because we did not want to, indeed encouraged it.
There's a lot wrapped up in that.
Yes, Europe has carried out ethnic cleansing repeatedly. However, we also saw the development of the idea of crimes against humanity and other war crimes from the late nineteenth century onwards, culminating in the post-WWII settlement and opposition to genocide, ethnic cleansing and wars of aggression. We once accepted ethnic cleansing, but we developed to be better than that. "We used to do it" is a reason to be more vigilant about opposing it now, not an apologia for when it happens again.
The expulsion of Germans from eastern Europe, the biggest ethnic cleansing in history, sits on the cusp of a post-WWII settlement. The western Allies were strongly opposed to what happened, but basically they couldn't do anything to stop Stalin.
Has ethnic cleansing solved long-standing problems? There are, I suggest, several ways of looking at that. The first is to suggest this is a trite response. Many crimes have "solved problems". Many a murder or theft solved someone's problem. That doesn't make it right. Has "it solved my problem" ever been a good defence in a court of law?
One might see ethnic cleansing as "solving problems", but if it does so, it only does so for the side doing the cleansing, not for the side being cleansed. From a utilitarian point of view, no, the total number of problems has not gone down.
Fundamentally, however, the supposed "problems" ethnic cleansing solves are fake problems. They are problems invented by one group when they demonise another group. These are the myths of permanent security, the idea that another ethnic group can only represent a threat, a fifth column. This is the idea that a baby in Gaza is a threat because you can only see it as growing up to be a terrorist.
What is the best way forward? Is it to brush off ethnic cleansing, to say we used to do it, it can solve problems, no-one minded last time? Or is it to say, no, ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity and we should oppose it, always?
One point - it was not Stalin that ethnically cleansed the Germans except from the Konigsberg enclave. It was done by the Poles and Czechs (primarily) before the Communist coups. Indeed, Benes had, without irony, called for 'the final solution of the German question' in 1943, and Western Czechoslovakia was at that time under an American occupation force led by Patton. And while Bierut was a Communist, the Allies working with the Polish government in exile had established similar protocols in 1944.
Polish and Czech Communists and anti-communists were at one, in their determination to expel the Germans. Given Stalin’s determination to annex Eastern Poland to Ukraine and Belorussia, and to expel their Polish populations, he knew he needed to give Poland big gains in Silesia and Pomerania, lest Poland go the same way as Yugoslavia.
Few among Western allies had any issue with the expulsion of ethnic Germans.
WRT Gaza, I don't suppose anyone is really surprised that Trump has said something like what he has.
All politics is relative, even this one. So points:
1) Clearly Trump intends to start a new middle east negotiation start point and position, and will have achieved this.
2) Has anyone got a better one?
3) I and most of us (I imagine) have long supported a two state solution. But SFAICS none of the parties do, most supporting a one state solution. So two state stuff isn't happening, not since the October massacre and Gaza'a becoming rubble.
4) What is the best one state solution which can be regarded as possible within the obvious constraints. Is it not most likely to be a radical but reluctantly agreed modification of Trump's appaarently absurd starting point?
On (3), the Palestinian Authority, some Israeli parties in opposition, Arab states, and most UN member states support a 2-state solution.
On (4), if one is to have a 1-state solution, it doesn't have to involve ethnic cleansing. So, no.
Ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity. It is not the solution to anything. It is not a starting point to anything.
We had ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023.
The world accepted it as it solved the problem.
Is that the most casually crass post in the history of PB?
No. It expresses a very unpleasant truth.
Ethnic cleansing is a war crime, like the use of starvation against enemy civilians.
But, the world frequently turns a blind eye to both.
Is the solution to this to encourage more war crimes? No.
Examples of ethnic cleansing that have become accepted (some probably count as genocide) 1) Most of N America 2) Large parts of S America 3) Australia 4) Caribbean
Another example. India & Pakistan, formented by Mountbatten.
Don’t forget Attlee’s role in that.
Labour PMs usually lead to the death of hundreds of thousands of Muslims and other assorted brown people.
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.
I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
You are a scientist who until recently was adamant it came from the wet market. Now it has been universally accepted it came from the lab, “oh who cares let’s move on no one wants to think about all that”
Nonsense on a plate with gravy. There is no consensus on the origin of Covid let alone one that is universally accepted.
On the contrary, it remains generally accepted by scientists that the most likely source for Covid was the wet market.
There are many reasons to discount a lab leak, says Holmes, and many more pointing to a natural origin. “SARS-CoV-2-like viruses have natural transmission cycles in a region spanning Yunnan province [in China] and southwards into South-East Asia and were most likely imported into Wuhan via the wildlife trade,” he says. “All the scientific evidence points to this. There is no scientific evidence for any other hypothesis.”
“The lab leak theory remains completely unsupported and, worse, incoherent and inconsistent, frequently requiring complex conspiracies to be a viable hypothesis,” says David Robertson at the University of Glasgow, UK. “Indeed, it seems clear that there’s a political agenda behind much of the proponents of the lab leak theory.”
We probably won’t ever know for sure. “I honestly can’t see any other new evidence coming to light,” says Holmes. “Research on this matter in China is at a standstill as the official narrative is that the virus is not from China. Besides, it is now far too late to find any intermediate animal species that still has the virus or antibodies to it.”
Does it even matter at this point? Yes, says Robertson. “The lab leak theory has become part of a wider, anti-science disinformation landscape. This is all very unfortunate, as preparedness to virus threats requires strong international cooperation and evidence-based response.”
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.
I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
You are a scientist who until recently was adamant it came from the wet market. Now it has been universally accepted it came from the lab, “oh who cares let’s move on no one wants to think about all that”
It has NOT been universally accepted. Until you can understand that, there is not point discussing it. Balance of probabilities might have shifted, but we will likely never be 100%.
In reference to moving on from covid, I think that pretty much characterises what is going on in most people lives. That is not the same as ignoring lessons from the pandemic and from pursuing malfeasance from the pandemic. Go after the fraudulent suppliers of PPE. Think again about what lockdown does, should have done and what inhumanity we did in trying to save lives (funerals, births, deaths with no-one attending, kids social and academic development stunted, perhaps permanently).
Ok everyone has accepted it apart from you and @bondegezou
Two bumbling centrist dad academics, the clueless vapid inane Rory Stewarts of PB. You probably go to see The Rest is Politics when they do “gigs”
At the risk of triggering a jerk on this site, not Bondez I hasten to add, that is one hell of a cracking put down. Made me smile.
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.
I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
You are a scientist who until recently was adamant it came from the wet market. Now it has been universally accepted it came from the lab, “oh who cares let’s move on no one wants to think about all that”
Nonsense on a plate with gravy. There is no consensus on the origin of Covid let alone one that is universally accepted.
On the contrary, it remains generally accepted by scientists that the most likely source for Covid was the wet market.
There are many reasons to discount a lab leak, says Holmes, and many more pointing to a natural origin. “SARS-CoV-2-like viruses have natural transmission cycles in a region spanning Yunnan province [in China] and southwards into South-East Asia and were most likely imported into Wuhan via the wildlife trade,” he says. “All the scientific evidence points to this. There is no scientific evidence for any other hypothesis.”
“The lab leak theory remains completely unsupported and, worse, incoherent and inconsistent, frequently requiring complex conspiracies to be a viable hypothesis,” says David Robertson at the University of Glasgow, UK. “Indeed, it seems clear that there’s a political agenda behind much of the proponents of the lab leak theory.”
We probably won’t ever know for sure. “I honestly can’t see any other new evidence coming to light,” says Holmes. “Research on this matter in China is at a standstill as the official narrative is that the virus is not from China. Besides, it is now far too late to find any intermediate animal species that still has the virus or antibodies to it.”
Does it even matter at this point? Yes, says Robertson. “The lab leak theory has become part of a wider, anti-science disinformation landscape. This is all very unfortunate, as preparedness to virus threats requires strong international cooperation and evidence-based response.”
For anyone with a brain, a new Bayesian analysis has been done of “lab leak” versus “wet market”
A very very basic “what are the chances, eh?”
The answer is
“The overall odds ratio is 14,900:1, indicating overwhelming evidence in favor of the hypothesis that the pandemic resulted from an accidental lab leak."
2 fast food meals in a row. After yesterday evening’s delicious Maccie Ds on Oxford Street it’s breakfast at Euston. In…Leon.
Always disappointing. One tiny sliver of bacon, an OK sausage, some fancy (ie tinned tomato flavoured) baked beans, and 2 flabby fried eggs for £7.29.
I did consider the spoons, which would have been much itbetter value for money, but I feared missing the train.
Leon is poor quality yet ubiquitous. You'd have thought it would improve or disappear.
That is what I have been banging on about since his first Chagos post.🤣
Never in the annals of British history has there been such a rank betrayal as this returning of a cluster of small islands in the Indian Ocean to Mauritius and leasing back a piece of it to continue to use as an airbase.
2 fast food meals in a row. After yesterday evening’s delicious Maccie Ds on Oxford Street it’s breakfast at Euston. In…Leon.
Always disappointing. One tiny sliver of bacon, an OK sausage, some fancy (ie tinned tomato flavoured) baked beans, and 2 flabby fried eggs for £7.29.
I did consider the spoons, which would have been much itbetter value for money, but I feared missing the train.
Leon is poor quality yet ubiquitous. You'd have thought it would improve or disappear.
That is what I have been banging on about since his first Chagos post.🤣
Never in the annals of British history has there been such a rank betrayal as this returning of a cluster of small islands in the Indian Ocean to Mauritius and leasing back a piece of it to continue to use as an airbase.
I couldn't sleep last night thinking about it.
It'll be fine. We are back onto the more familiar ground of the wet markets. For a moment I thought Diego Garcia was about to blow up again today.
Lovely PMI report for January. Highlights include:
'incoming new work declined in January' 'pace of job shedding accelerated to its sharpest for four years' 'overall rate of cost inflation was the highest for nine months' 'robust and accelerated rise in average prices charged by service sector firms' '50.8 in January....joint-lowest for 15 months' ' heightened risk aversion among corporate clients as well as delayed investment plans' ' weak consumer confidence and cutbacks to non-essential household spending' 'many firms also linked lower new orders to weaker business confidence in the wake of the Autumn Budget'
I could go on. It's pretty grim. No or little growth, higher inflation, less employment.
Tough climate at the moment. Let's hope things pick up before too long. Can't say I'm optimistic, esp with Donald J Trump blundering about, but you never know.
Lovely PMI report for January. Highlights include:
'incoming new work declined in January' 'pace of job shedding accelerated to its sharpest for four years' 'overall rate of cost inflation was the highest for nine months' 'robust and accelerated rise in average prices charged by service sector firms' '50.8 in January....joint-lowest for 15 months' ' heightened risk aversion among corporate clients as well as delayed investment plans' ' weak consumer confidence and cutbacks to non-essential household spending' 'many firms also linked lower new orders to weaker business confidence in the wake of the Autumn Budget'
I could go on. It's pretty grim. No or little growth, higher inflation, less employment.
Tough climate at the moment. Let's hope things pick up before too long. Can't say I'm optimistic, esp with Donald J Trump blundering about, but you never know.
My runes reading suggests a minor uptick in confidence and activity this spring.
For anyone with a brain, a new Bayesian analysis has been done of “lab leak” versus “wet market”
A very very basic “what are the chances, eh?”
The answer is
“The overall odds ratio is 14,900:1, indicating overwhelming evidence in favor of the hypothesis that the pandemic resulted from an accidental lab leak."
The halfwits still gamely batting for a non existent market origin are literally arguing against a hypothesis which is 14,900 times more likely
In as much as that's an analysis of anything (without access to the full paper it's impossible to see whether the numbers have a basis or are arse-plucked) it appears to be the odds of the virus originating at the market compared to anywhere else, not versus the lab. What if a similar analysis shows the odds of a lab leak versus any other origin is 30000:1?
This is the Roy Meadow school of statistical evidence.
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.
I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
You are a scientist who until recently was adamant it came from the wet market. Now it has been universally accepted it came from the lab, “oh who cares let’s move on no one wants to think about all that”
It has NOT been universally accepted. Until you can understand that, there is not point discussing it. Balance of probabilities might have shifted, but we will likely never be 100%.
In reference to moving on from covid, I think that pretty much characterises what is going on in most people lives. That is not the same as ignoring lessons from the pandemic and from pursuing malfeasance from the pandemic. Go after the fraudulent suppliers of PPE. Think again about what lockdown does, should have done and what inhumanity we did in trying to save lives (funerals, births, deaths with no-one attending, kids social and academic development stunted, perhaps permanently).
Ok everyone has accepted it apart from you and @bondegezou
Two bumbling centrist dad academics, the clueless vapid inane Rory Stewarts of PB. You probably go to see The Rest is Politics when they do “gigs”
At the risk of triggering a jerk on this site, not Bondez I hasten to add, that is one hell of a cracking put down. Made me smile.
Morning Taz.
It wasn't you I was referring to MexicanPete. Hope you are having a nice day.
Lovely PMI report for January. Highlights include:
'incoming new work declined in January' 'pace of job shedding accelerated to its sharpest for four years' 'overall rate of cost inflation was the highest for nine months' 'robust and accelerated rise in average prices charged by service sector firms' '50.8 in January....joint-lowest for 15 months' ' heightened risk aversion among corporate clients as well as delayed investment plans' ' weak consumer confidence and cutbacks to non-essential household spending' 'many firms also linked lower new orders to weaker business confidence in the wake of the Autumn Budget'
I could go on. It's pretty grim. No or little growth, higher inflation, less employment.
Tough climate at the moment. Let's hope things pick up before too long. Can't say I'm optimistic, esp with Donald J Trump blundering about, but you never know.
My runes reading suggests a minor uptick in confidence and activity this spring.
Low confidence. Very little evidence that March will stir much. We haven't even had the NI increase start yet. My runes suggest worsening employment, lower than anticipated tax revenue, higher costs, more borrowing or cuts to service. Nothing on the horizon is giving much optimism.
2 fast food meals in a row. After yesterday evening’s delicious Maccie Ds on Oxford Street it’s breakfast at Euston. In…Leon.
Always disappointing. One tiny sliver of bacon, an OK sausage, some fancy (ie tinned tomato flavoured) baked beans, and 2 flabby fried eggs for £7.29.
I did consider the spoons, which would have been much itbetter value for money, but I feared missing the train.
Leon is poor quality yet ubiquitous. You'd have thought it would improve or disappear.
That is what I have been banging on about since his first Chagos post.🤣
Never in the annals of British history has there been such a rank betrayal as this returning of a cluster of small islands in the Indian Ocean to Mauritius and leasing back a piece of it to continue to use as an airbase.
I couldn't sleep last night thinking about it.
I had a bottle of home made Guava wine last night. I slept really well.
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.
I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
You are a scientist who until recently was adamant it came from the wet market. Now it has been universally accepted it came from the lab, “oh who cares let’s move on no one wants to think about all that”
It has NOT been universally accepted. Until you can understand that, there is not point discussing it. Balance of probabilities might have shifted, but we will likely never be 100%.
In reference to moving on from covid, I think that pretty much characterises what is going on in most people lives. That is not the same as ignoring lessons from the pandemic and from pursuing malfeasance from the pandemic. Go after the fraudulent suppliers of PPE. Think again about what lockdown does, should have done and what inhumanity we did in trying to save lives (funerals, births, deaths with no-one attending, kids social and academic development stunted, perhaps permanently).
Ok everyone has accepted it apart from you and @bondegezou
Two bumbling centrist dad academics, the clueless vapid inane Rory Stewarts of PB. You probably go to see The Rest is Politics when they do “gigs”
At the risk of triggering a jerk on this site, not Bondez I hasten to add, that is one hell of a cracking put down. Made me smile.
Morning Taz.
It wasn't you I was referring to MexicanPete. Hope you are having a nice day.
I am Taz, it's my birthday. Thanks for asking. I am disappointed that I was overlooked, mind.
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.
I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
You are a scientist who until recently was adamant it came from the wet market. Now it has been universally accepted it came from the lab, “oh who cares let’s move on no one wants to think about all that”
Nonsense on a plate with gravy. There is no consensus on the origin of Covid let alone one that is universally accepted.
On the contrary, it remains generally accepted by scientists that the most likely source for Covid was the wet market.
There are many reasons to discount a lab leak, says Holmes, and many more pointing to a natural origin. “SARS-CoV-2-like viruses have natural transmission cycles in a region spanning Yunnan province [in China] and southwards into South-East Asia and were most likely imported into Wuhan via the wildlife trade,” he says. “All the scientific evidence points to this. There is no scientific evidence for any other hypothesis.”
“The lab leak theory remains completely unsupported and, worse, incoherent and inconsistent, frequently requiring complex conspiracies to be a viable hypothesis,” says David Robertson at the University of Glasgow, UK. “Indeed, it seems clear that there’s a political agenda behind much of the proponents of the lab leak theory.”
We probably won’t ever know for sure. “I honestly can’t see any other new evidence coming to light,” says Holmes. “Research on this matter in China is at a standstill as the official narrative is that the virus is not from China. Besides, it is now far too late to find any intermediate animal species that still has the virus or antibodies to it.”
Does it even matter at this point? Yes, says Robertson. “The lab leak theory has become part of a wider, anti-science disinformation landscape. This is all very unfortunate, as preparedness to virus threats requires strong international cooperation and evidence-based response.”
Wet market is favoured but there is a sizeable dissenting minority not all of whom (contrary to evidence on here) are crackpots.
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.
I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
You are a scientist who until recently was adamant it came from the wet market. Now it has been universally accepted it came from the lab, “oh who cares let’s move on no one wants to think about all that”
It has NOT been universally accepted. Until you can understand that, there is not point discussing it. Balance of probabilities might have shifted, but we will likely never be 100%.
In reference to moving on from covid, I think that pretty much characterises what is going on in most people lives. That is not the same as ignoring lessons from the pandemic and from pursuing malfeasance from the pandemic. Go after the fraudulent suppliers of PPE. Think again about what lockdown does, should have done and what inhumanity we did in trying to save lives (funerals, births, deaths with no-one attending, kids social and academic development stunted, perhaps permanently).
Ok everyone has accepted it apart from you and @bondegezou
Two bumbling centrist dad academics, the clueless vapid inane Rory Stewarts of PB. You probably go to see The Rest is Politics when they do “gigs”
At the risk of triggering a jerk on this site, not Bondez I hasten to add, that is one hell of a cracking put down. Made me smile.
Morning Taz.
It wasn't you I was referring to MexicanPete. Hope you are having a nice day.
Margin of error changes mean another 3-way Labour, Reform & Conservative tie in our latest @moreincommonuk.bsky.social voting intention with Tories just ahead
🌳 CON 26% (+2) 🌹 LAB 24% (-1) ➡️ REF UK 24% (-1) 🔶 LIB DEM 13% (nc) 🌍 GREEN 6% (-1) 🟡 SNP 3% (+1)
First poll with the Tories in the lead for a while.
I look forward to the next thread header saying this poll is in fact terrible news for the Conservatives and Kemi should be replaced.
I see you’re another one who cannot read.
I’ve said she should be given time but the PCP may well not give her time.
I remember getting called all sorts when I said Boris Johnson would serve less time as PM than David Cameron (pbuh) the morning after the 2019 GE and that Liz Truss wouldn’t last until the 2023 Tory conference.
Both won me lots of money and two very nice meals in London.
Badenoch isn't PM and has much more Tory MP support than Boris did. Kemi also won the Tory MPs vote unlike Liz who lost it to Rishi
For anyone with a brain, a new Bayesian analysis has been done of “lab leak” versus “wet market”
A very very basic “what are the chances, eh?”
The answer is
“The overall odds ratio is 14,900:1, indicating overwhelming evidence in favor of the hypothesis that the pandemic resulted from an accidental lab leak."
The halfwits still gamely batting for a non existent market origin are literally arguing against a hypothesis which is 14,900 times more likely
In as much as that's an analysis of anything (without access to the full paper it's impossible to see whether the numbers have a basis or are arse-plucked) it appears to be the odds of the virus originating at the market compared to anywhere else, not versus the lab. What if a similar analysis shows the odds of a lab leak versus any other origin is 30000:1?
This is the Roy Meadow school of statistical evidence.
The paper is right there you dribbling prick. Right there
I linked to it. There. That’s the link
It’s called “a link”. Given that you cannot see a link when you are directly offered a link to link on, we can henceforth ignore any further commentary of yours, as I’m sure you will agree
WRT Gaza, I don't suppose anyone is really surprised that Trump has said something like what he has.
All politics is relative, even this one. So points:
1) Clearly Trump intends to start a new middle east negotiation start point and position, and will have achieved this.
2) Has anyone got a better one?
3) I and most of us (I imagine) have long supported a two state solution. But SFAICS none of the parties do, most supporting a one state solution. So two state stuff isn't happening, not since the October massacre and Gaza'a becoming rubble.
4) What is the best one state solution which can be regarded as possible within the obvious constraints. Is it not most likely to be a radical but reluctantly agreed modification of Trump's appaarently absurd starting point?
On (3), the Palestinian Authority, some Israeli parties in opposition, Arab states, and most UN member states support a 2-state solution.
On (4), if one is to have a 1-state solution, it doesn't have to involve ethnic cleansing. So, no.
Ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity. It is not the solution to anything. It is not a starting point to anything.
We had ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023.
The world accepted it as it solved the problem.
Is that the most casually crass post in the history of PB?
No. It expresses a very unpleasant truth.
Ethnic cleansing is a war crime, like the use of starvation against enemy civilians.
But, the world frequently turns a blind eye to both.
Is the solution to this to encourage more war crimes? No.
Examples of ethnic cleansing that have become accepted (some probably count as genocide) 1) Most of N America 2) Large parts of S America 3) Australia 4) Caribbean
Another example. India & Pakistan, formented by Mountbatten.
Muslim India would have been in civil war with Hindu India had Pakistan not been created
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.
I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
You are a scientist who until recently was adamant it came from the wet market. Now it has been universally accepted it came from the lab, “oh who cares let’s move on no one wants to think about all that”
It has NOT been universally accepted. Until you can understand that, there is not point discussing it. Balance of probabilities might have shifted, but we will likely never be 100%.
In reference to moving on from covid, I think that pretty much characterises what is going on in most people lives. That is not the same as ignoring lessons from the pandemic and from pursuing malfeasance from the pandemic. Go after the fraudulent suppliers of PPE. Think again about what lockdown does, should have done and what inhumanity we did in trying to save lives (funerals, births, deaths with no-one attending, kids social and academic development stunted, perhaps permanently).
Ok everyone has accepted it apart from you and @bondegezou
Two bumbling centrist dad academics, the clueless vapid inane Rory Stewarts of PB. You probably go to see The Rest is Politics when they do “gigs”
#metoo
I still think it could be either (well, anything on a broad range of possibilities) and that 'lab leak' covers a wide range of possibilities, of different plausibility and seriousness. We'll probably never find out unless it was (1) a lab leak (2) someone knows that and (3) they fess up. Maybe one day. Even if a 'lab leak' it's possible no one actually knows.
I'm sorry to report that I've never been to a TRIP gig, nor listened to the podcast, which may require me to tear up my centrist dad academic membership card, despite being centrist, a dad and an academic
Just so long as you don't switch to "Fuse Energy".
(joke wasted on you since you have no clue what I mean)
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.
I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
You are a scientist who until recently was adamant it came from the wet market. Now it has been universally accepted it came from the lab, “oh who cares let’s move on no one wants to think about all that”
Nonsense on a plate with gravy. There is no consensus on the origin of Covid let alone one that is universally accepted.
On the contrary, it remains generally accepted by scientists that the most likely source for Covid was the wet market.
There are many reasons to discount a lab leak, says Holmes, and many more pointing to a natural origin. “SARS-CoV-2-like viruses have natural transmission cycles in a region spanning Yunnan province [in China] and southwards into South-East Asia and were most likely imported into Wuhan via the wildlife trade,” he says. “All the scientific evidence points to this. There is no scientific evidence for any other hypothesis.”
“The lab leak theory remains completely unsupported and, worse, incoherent and inconsistent, frequently requiring complex conspiracies to be a viable hypothesis,” says David Robertson at the University of Glasgow, UK. “Indeed, it seems clear that there’s a political agenda behind much of the proponents of the lab leak theory.”
We probably won’t ever know for sure. “I honestly can’t see any other new evidence coming to light,” says Holmes. “Research on this matter in China is at a standstill as the official narrative is that the virus is not from China. Besides, it is now far too late to find any intermediate animal species that still has the virus or antibodies to it.”
Does it even matter at this point? Yes, says Robertson. “The lab leak theory has become part of a wider, anti-science disinformation landscape. This is all very unfortunate, as preparedness to virus threats requires strong international cooperation and evidence-based response.”
Wet market is favoured but there is a sizeable dissenting minority not all of whom (contrary to evidence on here) are crackpots.
I find anyone expressing certainty a bit suspect. There's also the 'both' angle - they're not necessarily mutually exclusive. Someone gets infected at the lab (or carrying out duties elsewhere for the lab) and then spreads it at the wet market.
It would be really fascinating to know, but unless it is lab, with a coverup (i.e. people do know) I doubt we'll ever get a definitive answer. Which suits the 'lab leak!' people fine as the evidence for it coming from somewhere else can probably, now, never be really conclusive.
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.
I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
You are a scientist who until recently was adamant it came from the wet market. Now it has been universally accepted it came from the lab, “oh who cares let’s move on no one wants to think about all that”
It has NOT been universally accepted. Until you can understand that, there is not point discussing it. Balance of probabilities might have shifted, but we will likely never be 100%.
In reference to moving on from covid, I think that pretty much characterises what is going on in most people lives. That is not the same as ignoring lessons from the pandemic and from pursuing malfeasance from the pandemic. Go after the fraudulent suppliers of PPE. Think again about what lockdown does, should have done and what inhumanity we did in trying to save lives (funerals, births, deaths with no-one attending, kids social and academic development stunted, perhaps permanently).
Ok everyone has accepted it apart from you and @bondegezou
Two bumbling centrist dad academics, the clueless vapid inane Rory Stewarts of PB. You probably go to see The Rest is Politics when they do “gigs”
#metoo
I still think it could be either (well, anything on a broad range of possibilities) and that 'lab leak' covers a wide range of possibilities, of different plausibility and seriousness. We'll probably never find out unless it was (1) a lab leak (2) someone knows that and (3) they fess up. Maybe one day. Even if a 'lab leak' it's possible no one actually knows.
I'm sorry to report that I've never been to a TRIP gig, nor listened to the podcast, which may require me to tear up my centrist dad academic membership card, despite being centrist, a dad and an academic
Just so long as you don't switch to "Fuse Energy".
(joke wasted on you since you have no clue what I mean)
Wasted indeed. Best I can come up with is some kind of fuse/trip switch reference
For anyone with a brain, a new Bayesian analysis has been done of “lab leak” versus “wet market”
A very very basic “what are the chances, eh?”
The answer is
“The overall odds ratio is 14,900:1, indicating overwhelming evidence in favor of the hypothesis that the pandemic resulted from an accidental lab leak."
For anyone with a brain, a new Bayesian analysis has been done of “lab leak” versus “wet market”
A very very basic “what are the chances, eh?”
The answer is
“The overall odds ratio is 14,900:1, indicating overwhelming evidence in favor of the hypothesis that the pandemic resulted from an accidental lab leak."
The halfwits still gamely batting for a non existent market origin are literally arguing against a hypothesis which is 14,900 times more likely
In as much as that's an analysis of anything (without access to the full paper it's impossible to see whether the numbers have a basis or are arse-plucked) it appears to be the odds of the virus originating at the market compared to anywhere else, not versus the lab. What if a similar analysis shows the odds of a lab leak versus any other origin is 30000:1?
This is the Roy Meadow school of statistical evidence.
The paper is right there you dribbling prick. Right there
I linked to it. There. That’s the link
It’s called “a link”. Given that you cannot see a link when you are directly offered a link to link on, we can henceforth ignore any further commentary of yours, as I’m sure you will agree
Mea culpa (on not spotting the big download button)
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.
I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
You are a scientist who until recently was adamant it came from the wet market. Now it has been universally accepted it came from the lab, “oh who cares let’s move on no one wants to think about all that”
It has NOT been universally accepted. Until you can understand that, there is not point discussing it. Balance of probabilities might have shifted, but we will likely never be 100%.
In reference to moving on from covid, I think that pretty much characterises what is going on in most people lives. That is not the same as ignoring lessons from the pandemic and from pursuing malfeasance from the pandemic. Go after the fraudulent suppliers of PPE. Think again about what lockdown does, should have done and what inhumanity we did in trying to save lives (funerals, births, deaths with no-one attending, kids social and academic development stunted, perhaps permanently).
Ok everyone has accepted it apart from you and @bondegezou
Two bumbling centrist dad academics, the clueless vapid inane Rory Stewarts of PB. You probably go to see The Rest is Politics when they do “gigs”
At the risk of triggering a jerk on this site, not Bondez I hasten to add, that is one hell of a cracking put down. Made me smile.
Morning Taz.
It wasn't you I was referring to MexicanPete. Hope you are having a nice day.
I am Taz, it's my birthday. Thanks for asking. I am disappointed that I was overlooked, mind.
Many happy returns.
You haven't been overlooked. You have not been making any pointed comments at me for a while, or I haven't seen any. So I have no issue. Like I was saying, maybe even to you, when discussing Ishmael, I hold no grudge. Life is too short. Maybe it is because I have been making complimentary comments about Reeves in the last few weeks with her upping the ante on growth and committing to it.
“This paper uses Bayesian methods in conjunction with spatiotemporal and zoonotic data to evaluate the odds ratio for two hypotheses regarding the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic, namely, an accidental laboratory leak of a chimera virus or the transmission of a natural virus from an infected wildlife mammal.
“The overall Bayes factor is decomposed into 4 components: (1) the odds that the outbreak would occur in the People’s Republic of China (PRC); (2) the odds that the outbreak would occur in Wuhan, conditional on its location in PRC; (3) the odds of observing the spatiotemporal pattern of confirmed COVID-19 cases with no known link to the specific wholesale market where wildlife mammals were being sold, conditional on the outbreak taking place in Wuhan; and (4) the odds of observing the spatiotemporal pattern of confirmed vendor cases at that market, conditional on the outbreak taking place in Wuhan.
“These four conditional Bayes factors are estimated as 2.3:1, 20:1, 27:1, and 12:1, respectively, and hence the overall odds ratio is 14,900:1, indicating overwhelming evidence in favor of the hypothesis that the pandemic resulted from an accidental lab leak. This conclusion is robust to alternative specifications of the detailed statistical analysis.”
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.
I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
You are a scientist who until recently was adamant it came from the wet market. Now it has been universally accepted it came from the lab, “oh who cares let’s move on no one wants to think about all that”
Nonsense on a plate with gravy. There is no consensus on the origin of Covid let alone one that is universally accepted.
On the contrary, it remains generally accepted by scientists that the most likely source for Covid was the wet market.
There are many reasons to discount a lab leak, says Holmes, and many more pointing to a natural origin. “SARS-CoV-2-like viruses have natural transmission cycles in a region spanning Yunnan province [in China] and southwards into South-East Asia and were most likely imported into Wuhan via the wildlife trade,” he says. “All the scientific evidence points to this. There is no scientific evidence for any other hypothesis.”
“The lab leak theory remains completely unsupported and, worse, incoherent and inconsistent, frequently requiring complex conspiracies to be a viable hypothesis,” says David Robertson at the University of Glasgow, UK. “Indeed, it seems clear that there’s a political agenda behind much of the proponents of the lab leak theory.”
We probably won’t ever know for sure. “I honestly can’t see any other new evidence coming to light,” says Holmes. “Research on this matter in China is at a standstill as the official narrative is that the virus is not from China. Besides, it is now far too late to find any intermediate animal species that still has the virus or antibodies to it.”
Does it even matter at this point? Yes, says Robertson. “The lab leak theory has become part of a wider, anti-science disinformation landscape. This is all very unfortunate, as preparedness to virus threats requires strong international cooperation and evidence-based response.”
Wet market is favoured but there is a sizeable dissenting minority not all of whom (contrary to evidence on here) are crackpots.
If you are evidence-led I would say Probably Wet Market or There's Too Much Uncertainty to Say are viable positions. There is specific but not conclusive evidence for Wet Market
The evidence just isn't there for Certainly Wet Market, Probably Lab Leak and Certainly Lab Leak positions. There's plenty of speculation, but little to no actual evidence, for Lab Leak. In the public domain at least, which is all we can work with.
For anyone with a brain, a new Bayesian analysis has been done of “lab leak” versus “wet market”
A very very basic “what are the chances, eh?”
The answer is
“The overall odds ratio is 14,900:1, indicating overwhelming evidence in favor of the hypothesis that the pandemic resulted from an accidental lab leak."
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.
I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
You are a scientist who until recently was adamant it came from the wet market. Now it has been universally accepted it came from the lab, “oh who cares let’s move on no one wants to think about all that”
Nonsense on a plate with gravy. There is no consensus on the origin of Covid let alone one that is universally accepted.
On the contrary, it remains generally accepted by scientists that the most likely source for Covid was the wet market.
There are many reasons to discount a lab leak, says Holmes, and many more pointing to a natural origin. “SARS-CoV-2-like viruses have natural transmission cycles in a region spanning Yunnan province [in China] and southwards into South-East Asia and were most likely imported into Wuhan via the wildlife trade,” he says. “All the scientific evidence points to this. There is no scientific evidence for any other hypothesis.”
“The lab leak theory remains completely unsupported and, worse, incoherent and inconsistent, frequently requiring complex conspiracies to be a viable hypothesis,” says David Robertson at the University of Glasgow, UK. “Indeed, it seems clear that there’s a political agenda behind much of the proponents of the lab leak theory.”
We probably won’t ever know for sure. “I honestly can’t see any other new evidence coming to light,” says Holmes. “Research on this matter in China is at a standstill as the official narrative is that the virus is not from China. Besides, it is now far too late to find any intermediate animal species that still has the virus or antibodies to it.”
Does it even matter at this point? Yes, says Robertson. “The lab leak theory has become part of a wider, anti-science disinformation landscape. This is all very unfortunate, as preparedness to virus threats requires strong international cooperation and evidence-based response.”
Wet market is favoured but there is a sizeable dissenting minority not all of whom (contrary to evidence on here) are crackpots.
Yes, the lab leak origin is certainly a possibility, but seems unlikely from what I've read. What I find a bit weird is the desperation for certainty by some people, and to have someone specific to blame. I suppose the human psyche is wired this way. People want to have reasons for events - preferably simple ones - and if none are immediately apparent, then they'll invent them. Hence religion and superstition.
"Muslim Labour politician warns against Angela Rayner’s redefining of ‘Islamophobia’ Ex-MP fears new council will adopt contentious legal term that threatens free speech"
We're rockers and rappers united and strong. We're here to talk about Gaza we don't like what's going on It's time for some justice it's time for the truth We've realized there's only one thing we can do
I ain't gonna play Trump City
Relocation to phony homelands Separation of families I can't understand 2 to 3 million can't vote because they're Arab We're stabbing our brothers and sisters in the back
For anyone with a brain, a new Bayesian analysis has been done of “lab leak” versus “wet market”
A very very basic “what are the chances, eh?”
The answer is
“The overall odds ratio is 14,900:1, indicating overwhelming evidence in favor of the hypothesis that the pandemic resulted from an accidental lab leak."
The halfwits still gamely batting for a non existent market origin are literally arguing against a hypothesis which is 14,900 times more likely
The author of that paper is an economist with apparently no expertise at all in disease transmission.
Yeah, I know, let’s ask all the virologists who worked at Wuhan. See what they think. Them and their virologist friends
That would be a good neutral expert opinion
Their opinion wouldn't be neutral but it would be expert. Andrew T Levin is probably not neutral and is certainly not expert. But the opinions of those writing in the New Scientist are expert and far more likely to be neutral than either of the aforementioned. So I'll go with them.
For anyone with a brain, a new Bayesian analysis has been done of “lab leak” versus “wet market”
A very very basic “what are the chances, eh?”
The answer is
“The overall odds ratio is 14,900:1, indicating overwhelming evidence in favor of the hypothesis that the pandemic resulted from an accidental lab leak."
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.
I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
You are a scientist who until recently was adamant it came from the wet market. Now it has been universally accepted it came from the lab, “oh who cares let’s move on no one wants to think about all that”
Nonsense on a plate with gravy. There is no consensus on the origin of Covid let alone one that is universally accepted.
On the contrary, it remains generally accepted by scientists that the most likely source for Covid was the wet market.
There are many reasons to discount a lab leak, says Holmes, and many more pointing to a natural origin. “SARS-CoV-2-like viruses have natural transmission cycles in a region spanning Yunnan province [in China] and southwards into South-East Asia and were most likely imported into Wuhan via the wildlife trade,” he says. “All the scientific evidence points to this. There is no scientific evidence for any other hypothesis.”
“The lab leak theory remains completely unsupported and, worse, incoherent and inconsistent, frequently requiring complex conspiracies to be a viable hypothesis,” says David Robertson at the University of Glasgow, UK. “Indeed, it seems clear that there’s a political agenda behind much of the proponents of the lab leak theory.”
We probably won’t ever know for sure. “I honestly can’t see any other new evidence coming to light,” says Holmes. “Research on this matter in China is at a standstill as the official narrative is that the virus is not from China. Besides, it is now far too late to find any intermediate animal species that still has the virus or antibodies to it.”
Does it even matter at this point? Yes, says Robertson. “The lab leak theory has become part of a wider, anti-science disinformation landscape. This is all very unfortunate, as preparedness to virus threats requires strong international cooperation and evidence-based response.”
Wet market is favoured but there is a sizeable dissenting minority not all of whom (contrary to evidence on here) are crackpots.
Yes, the lab leak origin is certainly a possibility, but seems unlikely from what I've read. What I find a bit weird is the desperation for certainty by some people, and to have someone specific to blame. I suppose the human psyche is wired this way. People want to have reasons for events - preferably simple ones - and if none are immediately apparent, then they'll invent them. Hence religion and superstition.
And yet the “religious certainty” all came from the wet marketeers for the first year
Remember “lab leak is a racist conspiracy theory”.
Remember when just talking about it got you banned from Facebook and Twitter
You didn’t have a problem with “religious certainty” then, did you? Nor did @kinabalu when he was “99% wet market!!” You knew and you were CERTAIN
Now the overwhelming evidence points the opposite way and suddenly it’s “oh well we will never know” and “it’s too late anyway” and “who cares it’s all long ago only 20 million died let’s talk about Lucy Letby” - @turbotubbs
It’s putrid, it’s laughable, it’s wrong, it’s immoral - and worst of all it is intellectually feeble
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.
I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
You are a scientist who until recently was adamant it came from the wet market. Now it has been universally accepted it came from the lab, “oh who cares let’s move on no one wants to think about all that”
Nonsense on a plate with gravy. There is no consensus on the origin of Covid let alone one that is universally accepted.
On the contrary, it remains generally accepted by scientists that the most likely source for Covid was the wet market.
There are many reasons to discount a lab leak, says Holmes, and many more pointing to a natural origin. “SARS-CoV-2-like viruses have natural transmission cycles in a region spanning Yunnan province [in China] and southwards into South-East Asia and were most likely imported into Wuhan via the wildlife trade,” he says. “All the scientific evidence points to this. There is no scientific evidence for any other hypothesis.”
“The lab leak theory remains completely unsupported and, worse, incoherent and inconsistent, frequently requiring complex conspiracies to be a viable hypothesis,” says David Robertson at the University of Glasgow, UK. “Indeed, it seems clear that there’s a political agenda behind much of the proponents of the lab leak theory.”
We probably won’t ever know for sure. “I honestly can’t see any other new evidence coming to light,” says Holmes. “Research on this matter in China is at a standstill as the official narrative is that the virus is not from China. Besides, it is now far too late to find any intermediate animal species that still has the virus or antibodies to it.”
Does it even matter at this point? Yes, says Robertson. “The lab leak theory has become part of a wider, anti-science disinformation landscape. This is all very unfortunate, as preparedness to virus threats requires strong international cooperation and evidence-based response.”
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.
I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
You are a scientist who until recently was adamant it came from the wet market. Now it has been universally accepted it came from the lab, “oh who cares let’s move on no one wants to think about all that”
It has NOT been universally accepted. Until you can understand that, there is not point discussing it. Balance of probabilities might have shifted, but we will likely never be 100%.
In reference to moving on from covid, I think that pretty much characterises what is going on in most people lives. That is not the same as ignoring lessons from the pandemic and from pursuing malfeasance from the pandemic. Go after the fraudulent suppliers of PPE. Think again about what lockdown does, should have done and what inhumanity we did in trying to save lives (funerals, births, deaths with no-one attending, kids social and academic development stunted, perhaps permanently).
Ok everyone has accepted it apart from you and @bondegezou
Two bumbling centrist dad academics, the clueless vapid inane Rory Stewarts of PB. You probably go to see The Rest is Politics when they do “gigs”
At the risk of triggering a jerk on this site, not Bondez I hasten to add, that is one hell of a cracking put down. Made me smile.
Morning Taz.
It wasn't you I was referring to MexicanPete. Hope you are having a nice day.
Oooh, this is fun - is it me? if not
Sadly your heart is broken. Maybe you need Keith Harris and Orville to mend your broken heart.
Musk and his teenagers have shut down an entire US government department illegally and looks like nothing will happen.
What is the point of Congress now?
Will there even be one meeting by 2028?
Congress has a Republican majority too and the Supreme Court a conservative majority, Trump has supreme power now at least until the midterms next November
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.
I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
You are a scientist who until recently was adamant it came from the wet market. Now it has been universally accepted it came from the lab, “oh who cares let’s move on no one wants to think about all that”
Nonsense on a plate with gravy. There is no consensus on the origin of Covid let alone one that is universally accepted.
On the contrary, it remains generally accepted by scientists that the most likely source for Covid was the wet market.
There are many reasons to discount a lab leak, says Holmes, and many more pointing to a natural origin. “SARS-CoV-2-like viruses have natural transmission cycles in a region spanning Yunnan province [in China] and southwards into South-East Asia and were most likely imported into Wuhan via the wildlife trade,” he says. “All the scientific evidence points to this. There is no scientific evidence for any other hypothesis.”
“The lab leak theory remains completely unsupported and, worse, incoherent and inconsistent, frequently requiring complex conspiracies to be a viable hypothesis,” says David Robertson at the University of Glasgow, UK. “Indeed, it seems clear that there’s a political agenda behind much of the proponents of the lab leak theory.”
We probably won’t ever know for sure. “I honestly can’t see any other new evidence coming to light,” says Holmes. “Research on this matter in China is at a standstill as the official narrative is that the virus is not from China. Besides, it is now far too late to find any intermediate animal species that still has the virus or antibodies to it.”
Does it even matter at this point? Yes, says Robertson. “The lab leak theory has become part of a wider, anti-science disinformation landscape. This is all very unfortunate, as preparedness to virus threats requires strong international cooperation and evidence-based response.”
Wet market is favoured but there is a sizeable dissenting minority not all of whom (contrary to evidence on here) are crackpots.
I find anyone expressing certainty a bit suspect. There's also the 'both' angle - they're not necessarily mutually exclusive. Someone gets infected at the lab (or carrying out duties elsewhere for the lab) and then spreads it at the wet market.
It would be really fascinating to know, but unless it is lab, with a coverup (i.e. people do know) I doubt we'll ever get a definitive answer. Which suits the 'lab leak!' people fine as the evidence for it coming from somewhere else can probably, now, never be really conclusive.
Yep. You need compelling evidence for one that precludes the other, which is not there. So certainty means agendas and axe grinding.
On a related note, some graphics have been circulating of the USA’s main trade relationships - whom it imports from and exports to.
Here are the exports:
They highlight something the Americans have really understated in recent years, and which largely explains their economic outperformance vs the rest of the West. They have become a petro-state. Largest oil producer in the world. One of the largest gas producers. Forget the Saudis or Russia.
Ukraine blowing up Russian refineries is very much in US national interests. Hopefully that’ll focus Trump and Musk’s minds.
Yup.
There was apparently a pause for a few days in shipments of weapons to Ukraine - which have now resumed. That sound in that interregnum was of the penny dropping.
"Here you are, lads. Have some more missiles. The delay was whilst we programmed in the co-ordinates that will make the biggest kerboooom...."
Musk and his teenagers have shut down an entire US government department illegally and looks like nothing will happen.
What is the point of Congress now?
Will there even be one meeting by 2028?
Congress has a Republican majority too and the Supreme Court a conservative majority, Trump has supreme power now at least until the midterms next November
These people have no spine and history will record their pathetic acquiescence to an insane cult.
On a related note, some graphics have been circulating of the USA’s main trade relationships - whom it imports from and exports to.
Here are the exports:
They highlight something the Americans have really understated in recent years, and which largely explains their economic outperformance vs the rest of the West. They have become a petro-state. Largest oil producer in the world. One of the largest gas producers. Forget the Saudis or Russia.
Ukraine blowing up Russian refineries is very much in US national interests. Hopefully that’ll focus Trump and Musk’s minds.
Also worth noting that the top export to us in that $158 billion of trade is crude oil.
For anyone with a brain, a new Bayesian analysis has been done of “lab leak” versus “wet market”
A very very basic “what are the chances, eh?”
The answer is
“The overall odds ratio is 14,900:1, indicating overwhelming evidence in favor of the hypothesis that the pandemic resulted from an accidental lab leak."
The halfwits still gamely batting for a non existent market origin are literally arguing against a hypothesis which is 14,900 times more likely
The author of that paper is an economist with apparently no expertise at all in disease transmission.
Yeah, I know, let’s ask all the virologists who worked at Wuhan. See what they think. Them and their virologist friends
That would be a good neutral expert opinion
Their opinion wouldn't be neutral but it would be expert. Andrew T Levin is probably not neutral and is certainly not expert. But the opinions of those writing in the New Scientist are expert and far more likely to be neutral than either of the aforementioned. So I'll go with them.
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.
I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
You are a scientist who until recently was adamant it came from the wet market. Now it has been universally accepted it came from the lab, “oh who cares let’s move on no one wants to think about all that”
Nonsense on a plate with gravy. There is no consensus on the origin of Covid let alone one that is universally accepted.
On the contrary, it remains generally accepted by scientists that the most likely source for Covid was the wet market.
There are many reasons to discount a lab leak, says Holmes, and many more pointing to a natural origin. “SARS-CoV-2-like viruses have natural transmission cycles in a region spanning Yunnan province [in China] and southwards into South-East Asia and were most likely imported into Wuhan via the wildlife trade,” he says. “All the scientific evidence points to this. There is no scientific evidence for any other hypothesis.”
“The lab leak theory remains completely unsupported and, worse, incoherent and inconsistent, frequently requiring complex conspiracies to be a viable hypothesis,” says David Robertson at the University of Glasgow, UK. “Indeed, it seems clear that there’s a political agenda behind much of the proponents of the lab leak theory.”
We probably won’t ever know for sure. “I honestly can’t see any other new evidence coming to light,” says Holmes. “Research on this matter in China is at a standstill as the official narrative is that the virus is not from China. Besides, it is now far too late to find any intermediate animal species that still has the virus or antibodies to it.”
Does it even matter at this point? Yes, says Robertson. “The lab leak theory has become part of a wider, anti-science disinformation landscape. This is all very unfortunate, as preparedness to virus threats requires strong international cooperation and evidence-based response.”
Wet market is favoured but there is a sizeable dissenting minority not all of whom (contrary to evidence on here) are crackpots.
Yes, the lab leak origin is certainly a possibility, but seems unlikely from what I've read. What I find a bit weird is the desperation for certainty by some people, and to have someone specific to blame. I suppose the human psyche is wired this way. People want to have reasons for events - preferably simple ones - and if none are immediately apparent, then they'll invent them. Hence religion and superstition.
And yet the “religious certainty” all came from the wet marketeers for the first year
Remember “lab leak is a racist conspiracy theory”.
Remember when just talking about it got you banned from Facebook and Twitter
You didn’t have a problem with “religious certainty” then, did you? Nor did @kinabalu when he was “99% wet market!!” You knew and you were CERTAIN
Now the overwhelming evidence points the opposite way and suddenly it’s “oh well we will never know” and “it’s too late anyway” and “who cares it’s all long ago only 20 million died let’s talk about Lucy Letby” - @turbotubbs
It’s putrid, it’s laughable, it’s wrong, it’s immoral - and worst of all it is intellectually feeble
Your memory fails you. I've never expressed certainty either way. Why would I? There are no grounds for certainty. From what I read (which doesn't include Twitter/X or Facebook), the wet market seems the most likely explanation, but I'm open to any actual evidence pointing the other way.
On a related note, some graphics have been circulating of the USA’s main trade relationships - whom it imports from and exports to.
Here are the exports:
They highlight something the Americans have really understated in recent years, and which largely explains their economic outperformance vs the rest of the West. They have become a petro-state. Largest oil producer in the world. One of the largest gas producers. Forget the Saudis or Russia.
Ukraine blowing up Russian refineries is very much in US national interests. Hopefully that’ll focus Trump and Musk’s minds.
Also worth noting that the top export to us in that $158 billion of trade is crude oil.
Whilst we stop oil field developments.
Hmmmm....
I don't know if this is the case, but isn't this down to different types of crude oil? Even when we were producing a lot of crude we were both exporting and importing it I believe.
I guess this is the point at which we can see who is merely a Trump adjacent provocateur and who has really joined the Qult. Defending Trump's Gaza "plan" is going to take mental gymnastics of a Korbut level.
It's a starting point for negotiation. Whatever the solution is, it isn't going to be 'two state', not since 7th Oct 2023, and it isn't going to be comfortable for most of the middle east, and it isn't going to be status quo ante. I am sure there are better plans, but we have not heard them yet. But I think we will. Answers on a postcard to UNRA.
When Trump talks of making Gaza 'a Riviera' does he mean filling it with Trump casinos that go bankrupt?
WRT Gaza, I don't suppose anyone is really surprised that Trump has said something like what he has.
All politics is relative, even this one. So points:
1) Clearly Trump intends to start a new middle east negotiation start point and position, and will have achieved this.
2) Has anyone got a better one?
3) I and most of us (I imagine) have long supported a two state solution. But SFAICS none of the parties do, most supporting a one state solution. So two state stuff isn't happening, not since the October massacre and Gaza'a becoming rubble.
4) What is the best one state solution which can be regarded as possible within the obvious constraints. Is it not most likely to be a radical but reluctantly agreed modification of Trump's appaarently absurd starting point?
On (3), the Palestinian Authority, some Israeli parties in opposition, Arab states, and most UN member states support a 2-state solution.
On (4), if one is to have a 1-state solution, it doesn't have to involve ethnic cleansing. So, no.
Ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity. It is not the solution to anything. It is not a starting point to anything.
We had ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023.
The world accepted it as it solved the problem.
We didn't either sponsor it, or take part in it, which is the case here. At the time the Russians were the "peacekeeping" force in place.
For anyone with a brain, a new Bayesian analysis has been done of “lab leak” versus “wet market”
A very very basic “what are the chances, eh?”
The answer is
“The overall odds ratio is 14,900:1, indicating overwhelming evidence in favor of the hypothesis that the pandemic resulted from an accidental lab leak."
The halfwits still gamely batting for a non existent market origin are literally arguing against a hypothesis which is 14,900 times more likely
In as much as that's an analysis of anything (without access to the full paper it's impossible to see whether the numbers have a basis or are arse-plucked) it appears to be the odds of the virus originating at the market compared to anywhere else, not versus the lab. What if a similar analysis shows the odds of a lab leak versus any other origin is 30000:1?
This is the Roy Meadow school of statistical evidence.
***correction***
Having skimmed the paper now (thanks Leon for kindly pointing out it was easily downloadable ) the quoted odds are wet market versus lab, not versus anywhere as I suggested (the web page summary reads as the latter; the paper makes clear it's the former). So not the Roy Meadow "this is really unlikely, therefore it's the other thing, but I didn't look at how unlikely the other thing is". Well, not entirely.
That said, some very interesting assumptions, such as a complete focus on bats in some of the calculations (i.e. zoonotic, how close are bats to people), while later acknowledging that there are other more likely direct vectors to people in the zoonotic hypothesis. Some of the spatial analysis is interesting for things it omits. The market (in this analysis) seems to be one area of spread - argument is made that it came to the market from the lab, via a human, which is certainly very possible. The alternative that it came to the lab, from the market, via a human is ignored.
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
The voice coach story is dead in the water. No one cares. No one wants to bang on about the pandemic anymore. You yourself picked up on this when taking about the lack of literature of the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. I am struck by the Hundred years war being punctuated by the extreme horror of the Black Death but with the combatents seemingly carrying on as if nothing had happened. Crecy (1346) so two years before and then Poitiers (1356) six years later, as if nothing had happened.
I know that the downstream events of the Black Death in England took a generation or so to come to a head (Peasants Revolt etc) but you do wonder if people just shrugged and got on with stuff in 1350. A bit like now with Covid.
You are a scientist who until recently was adamant it came from the wet market. Now it has been universally accepted it came from the lab, “oh who cares let’s move on no one wants to think about all that”
Nonsense on a plate with gravy. There is no consensus on the origin of Covid let alone one that is universally accepted.
On the contrary, it remains generally accepted by scientists that the most likely source for Covid was the wet market.
There are many reasons to discount a lab leak, says Holmes, and many more pointing to a natural origin. “SARS-CoV-2-like viruses have natural transmission cycles in a region spanning Yunnan province [in China] and southwards into South-East Asia and were most likely imported into Wuhan via the wildlife trade,” he says. “All the scientific evidence points to this. There is no scientific evidence for any other hypothesis.”
“The lab leak theory remains completely unsupported and, worse, incoherent and inconsistent, frequently requiring complex conspiracies to be a viable hypothesis,” says David Robertson at the University of Glasgow, UK. “Indeed, it seems clear that there’s a political agenda behind much of the proponents of the lab leak theory.”
We probably won’t ever know for sure. “I honestly can’t see any other new evidence coming to light,” says Holmes. “Research on this matter in China is at a standstill as the official narrative is that the virus is not from China. Besides, it is now far too late to find any intermediate animal species that still has the virus or antibodies to it.”
Does it even matter at this point? Yes, says Robertson. “The lab leak theory has become part of a wider, anti-science disinformation landscape. This is all very unfortunate, as preparedness to virus threats requires strong international cooperation and evidence-based response.”
Wet market is favoured but there is a sizeable dissenting minority not all of whom (contrary to evidence on here) are crackpots.
Yes, the lab leak origin is certainly a possibility, but seems unlikely from what I've read. What I find a bit weird is the desperation for certainty by some people, and to have someone specific to blame. I suppose the human psyche is wired this way. People want to have reasons for events - preferably simple ones - and if none are immediately apparent, then they'll invent them. Hence religion and superstition.
And yet the “religious certainty” all came from the wet marketeers for the first year
Remember “lab leak is a racist conspiracy theory”.
Remember when just talking about it got you banned from Facebook and Twitter
You didn’t have a problem with “religious certainty” then, did you? Nor did @kinabalu when he was “99% wet market!!” You knew and you were CERTAIN
Now the overwhelming evidence points the opposite way and suddenly it’s “oh well we will never know” and “it’s too late anyway” and “who cares it’s all long ago only 20 million died let’s talk about Lucy Letby” - @turbotubbs
It’s putrid, it’s laughable, it’s wrong, it’s immoral - and worst of all it is intellectually feeble
Er, as I pointed out before when you (mis)claimed this ... no, I can't be bothered, life's too short and the cat won't feed itself.
If the UK was about to receive, from some mad self harming foreign power the dosh we are going to give the Mauritians, then the UK would be, per capita, happily expectant of
£1,080,000,000,000
Oh no, not another bloody Chagos thread.
It's one of the most important issues going on in UK politics today. It shouldn't be, but it is. And unlike many of the challenges facing this government, it is pretty much totally under their own control.
The apparently sincere outrage about Chagos is baffling. There are a hundred other things I would get exercised about before that.
It isn't moral outrage. If it was we would close the base down and give the Chagossians their island back. The UK and US have no more moral right to the island than Mauritius, but legally it's theirs, as determined by clear and well established international law. So it's entirely transactional. The British, but in reality the Americans, get their base and the Mauritians get the money from a lease, which seems to be at the going rate for such bases. Everyone is happy, except the Chagossians, but nobody cares about them.
So Jenrick, a shadow bench member and likely next leader of the opposition calls Starmer a Quisling, and looks completely demented.
Trump's plan for Gaza is bonkers but it's not the worst idea. Jordan and Egypt have said they're out. Which I suppose leaves Lebanon & Syria...
It is from the mind of a madman. The Riviera of the Middle East? Didn't that used to be Beirut until Israel razed it to the ground in the 1970s?
Indeed. And that might well be the fate of neighbouring Egypt and Jordan in time, should Trump and Netanyahu forcibly deport the Palestinian population of Gaza.
Trump's plan for Gaza is bonkers but it's not the worst idea. Jordan and Egypt have said they're out. Which I suppose leaves Lebanon & Syria...
Trump's position is a starting point to generate change over something stuck for decades. We are getting used to the way he works.
For decades the answer has been unsatisfactory containment without resolution.
There is one key question first: Is a two state solution thinkable or possible? Personally I think not. The USA now thinks not too. Our government thinks differently. But I don't think Hamas or any present or future Israeli government will support a two state solution. I think that decides it. (And am happy to be wrong).
So I think the least worst option, sadly, is to start on Trump's 'one state' lines but do a lot better. But still happy to be proved wrong.
On a related note, some graphics have been circulating of the USA’s main trade relationships - whom it imports from and exports to.
Here are the exports:
They highlight something the Americans have really understated in recent years, and which largely explains their economic outperformance vs the rest of the West. They have become a petro-state. Largest oil producer in the world. One of the largest gas producers. Forget the Saudis or Russia.
Ukraine blowing up Russian refineries is very much in US national interests. Hopefully that’ll focus Trump and Musk’s minds.
Also worth noting that the top export to us in that $158 billion of trade is crude oil.
Whilst we stop oil field developments.
Hmmmm....
We're a net exporter of crude oil overall though*. We send our stuff to the Netherlands, China, Germany etc, while importing it from Norway and the US.
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
He looks insane
Chagos and the dogs that have not barked in the night time – Donald Trump; the United States generally; even Nigel Farage except to say it might be a problem for America.
And the Christmas Eve voice coach thing was strictly legal even if morally questionable, so there is nothing for the police or Privileges Committee to get its teeth into. Beyond some TwiX chatter from Elon's algorithm, no-one cares.
Hostage to fortune! In 20 minutes we shall see if Kemi runs with them.
That said, I still expect Starmer to follow Wilson in resigning early (see, back on topic!).
It is possible the combo of Chagos and Voice coach could bring down Starmer
Each on their own, unlikely. But the combination of him being a lying snake and mind blowing hypocrite at the same time as he tries to give away, to hostile foreigners, billions of pounds we don’t have is quite lethal
If the UK was about to receive, from some mad self harming foreign power the dosh we are going to give the Mauritians, then the UK would be, per capita, happily expectant of
£1,080,000,000,000
Oh no, not another bloody Chagos thread.
It's one of the most important issues going on in UK politics today. It shouldn't be, but it is. And unlike many of the challenges facing this government, it is pretty much totally under their own control.
The apparently sincere outrage about Chagos is baffling. There are a hundred other things I would get exercised about before that.
It isn't moral outrage. If it was we would close the base down and give the Chagossians their island back. The UK and US have no more moral right to the island than Mauritius, but legally it's theirs, as determined by clear and well established international law. So it's entirely transactional. The British, but in reality the Americans, get their base and the Mauritians get the money from a lease, which seems to be at the going rate for such bases. Everyone is happy, except the Chagossians, but nobody cares about them.
So Jenrick, a shadow bench member and likely next leader of the opposition calls Starmer a Quisling, and looks completely demented.
Not that significant according to More in Common:
Wonder which quadrant will catch Kemi's eye today?
On a related note, some graphics have been circulating of the USA’s main trade relationships - whom it imports from and exports to.
Here are the exports:
They highlight something the Americans have really understated in recent years, and which largely explains their economic outperformance vs the rest of the West. They have become a petro-state. Largest oil producer in the world. One of the largest gas producers. Forget the Saudis or Russia.
Ukraine blowing up Russian refineries is very much in US national interests. Hopefully that’ll focus Trump and Musk’s minds.
Also worth noting that the top export to us in that $158 billion of trade is crude oil.
Whilst we stop oil field developments.
Hmmmm....
We're a net exporter of crude oil overall though*. We send our stuff to the Netherlands, China, Germany etc, while importing it from Norway and the US.
*Things might have changed from 2022.
Beat you to it. Nice to know someone else had the same thought. It could however mean that it is not just me that is an idiot, but both of us. However I like to think that in reality we both put a little more thought into it. Something @leon should maybe think about before each of his posts.
Comments
I am not arguing in favour of Trumps proposal.
Just pointing out something needs to be done and hoping for a peaceful settlement. Something many people don't want. They just want one side to crush the other.
“Quick, do a deal so mind-fuckingly terrible and misguided it distracts from the way we have utterly trashed the economy”
Like Putin invading Ukraine but with more annoying lawyers
David Frum @davidfrum.bsky.social
·
46m
We've reached the chapter in Gibbon where the mad emperor is appointing magicians, acrobats, and paid agents of the Persians to the highest offices of state.
Yes, Europe has carried out ethnic cleansing repeatedly. However, we also saw the development of the idea of crimes against humanity and other war crimes from the late nineteenth century onwards, culminating in the post-WWII settlement and opposition to genocide, ethnic cleansing and wars of aggression. We once accepted ethnic cleansing, but we developed to be better than that. "We used to do it" is a reason to be more vigilant about opposing it now, not an apologia for when it happens again.
The expulsion of Germans from eastern Europe, the biggest ethnic cleansing in history, sits on the cusp of a post-WWII settlement. The western Allies were strongly opposed to what happened, but basically they couldn't do anything to stop Stalin.
Has ethnic cleansing solved long-standing problems? There are, I suggest, several ways of looking at that. The first is to suggest this is a trite response. Many crimes have "solved problems". Many a murder or theft solved someone's problem. That doesn't make it right. Has "it solved my problem" ever been a good defence in a court of law?
One might see ethnic cleansing as "solving problems", but if it does so, it only does so for the side doing the cleansing, not for the side being cleansed. From a utilitarian point of view, no, the total number of problems has not gone down.
Fundamentally, however, the supposed "problems" ethnic cleansing solves are fake problems. They are problems invented by one group when they demonise another group. These are the myths of permanent security, the idea that another ethnic group can only represent a threat, a fifth column. This is the idea that a baby in Gaza is a threat because you can only see it as growing up to be a terrorist.
What is the best way forward? Is it to brush off ethnic cleansing, to say we used to do it, it can solve problems, no-one minded last time? Or is it to say, no, ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity and we should oppose it, always?
In reference to moving on from covid, I think that pretty much characterises what is going on in most people lives. That is not the same as ignoring lessons from the pandemic and from pursuing malfeasance from the pandemic. Go after the fraudulent suppliers of PPE. Think again about what lockdown does, should have done and what inhumanity we did in trying to save lives (funerals, births, deaths with no-one attending, kids social and academic development stunted, perhaps permanently).
Afternoon thread will be who it might not be.
I'm a bit of a hawk on government borrowing.
Two bumbling centrist dad academics, the clueless vapid inane Rory Stewarts of PB. You probably go to see The Rest is Politics when they do “gigs”
I’ve said she should be given time but the PCP may well not give her time.
I remember getting called all sorts when I said Boris Johnson would serve less time as PM than David Cameron (pbuh) the morning after the 2019 GE and that Liz Truss wouldn’t last until the 2023 Tory conference.
Both won me lots of money and two very nice meals in London.
SKS's legacy will be preventing a Democratic Socialist government being continuation Tory and enabling a Nigel Farage led one.
SKS fans this is on each and everyone of you
I still think it could be either (well, anything on a broad range of possibilities) and that 'lab leak' covers a wide range of possibilities, of different plausibility and seriousness. We'll probably never find out unless it was (1) a lab leak (2) someone knows that and (3) they fess up. Maybe one day. Even if a 'lab leak' it's possible no one actually knows.
I'm sorry to report that I've never been to a TRIP gig, nor listened to the podcast, which may require me to tear up my centrist dad academic membership card, despite being centrist, a dad and an academic
From the 4 January 2025 issue of New Scientist:
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg26435242-500-the-big-unanswered-questions-about-the-covid-19-coronavirus/
There are many reasons to discount a lab leak, says Holmes, and many more pointing to a natural origin. “SARS-CoV-2-like viruses have natural transmission cycles in a region spanning Yunnan province [in China] and southwards into South-East Asia and were most likely imported into Wuhan via the wildlife trade,” he says. “All the scientific evidence points to this. There is no scientific evidence for any other hypothesis.”
“The lab leak theory remains completely unsupported and, worse, incoherent and inconsistent, frequently requiring complex conspiracies to be a viable hypothesis,” says David Robertson at the University of Glasgow, UK. “Indeed, it seems clear that there’s a political agenda behind much of the proponents of the lab leak theory.”
We probably won’t ever know for sure. “I honestly can’t see any other new evidence coming to light,” says Holmes. “Research on this matter in China is at a standstill as the official narrative is that the virus is not from China. Besides, it is now far too late to find any intermediate animal species that still has the virus or antibodies to it.”
Does it even matter at this point? Yes, says Robertson. “The lab leak theory has become part of a wider, anti-science disinformation landscape. This is all very unfortunate, as preparedness to virus threats requires strong international cooperation and evidence-based response.”
Few among Western allies had any issue with the expulsion of ethnic Germans.
Labour PMs usually lead to the death of hundreds of thousands of Muslims and other assorted brown people.
Confession though - I've never been to one.
A very very basic “what are the chances, eh?”
The answer is
“The overall odds ratio is 14,900:1, indicating overwhelming evidence in favor of the hypothesis that the pandemic resulted from an accidental lab leak."
https://x.com/robinhanson/status/1886512085346975910?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
https://www.nber.org/papers/w33428
The halfwits still gamely batting for a non existent market origin are literally arguing against a hypothesis which is 14,900 times more likely
I couldn't sleep last night thinking about it.
A peculiar pathology is at work
ETA: questionable salutes: 76 minutes
In as much as that's an analysis of anything (without access to the full paper it's impossible to see whether the numbers have a basis or are arse-plucked) it appears to be the odds of the virus originating at the market compared to anywhere else, not versus the lab. What if a similar analysis shows the odds of a lab leak versus any other origin is 30000:1?
This is the Roy Meadow school of statistical evidence.
Made it from Guava juice from Sainsburys.
I find alcohol in moderation before sleep helps.
I linked to it. There. That’s the link
It’s called “a link”. Given that you cannot see a link when you are directly offered a link to link on, we can henceforth ignore any further commentary of yours, as I’m sure you will agree
(joke wasted on you since you have no clue what I mean)
It would be really fascinating to know, but unless it is lab, with a coverup (i.e. people do know) I doubt we'll ever get a definitive answer. Which suits the 'lab leak!' people fine as the evidence for it coming from somewhere else can probably, now, never be really conclusive.
What is the point of Congress now?
Will there even be one meeting by 2028?
You haven't been overlooked. You have not been making any pointed comments at me for a while, or I haven't seen any. So I have no issue. Like I was saying, maybe even to you, when discussing Ishmael, I hold no grudge. Life is too short. Maybe it is because I have been making complimentary comments about Reeves in the last few weeks with her upping the ante on growth and committing to it.
"Far right you are, sir."
(@selebian)
“This paper uses Bayesian methods in conjunction with spatiotemporal and zoonotic data to evaluate the odds ratio for two hypotheses regarding the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic, namely, an accidental laboratory leak of a chimera virus or the transmission of a natural virus from an infected wildlife mammal.
“The overall Bayes factor is decomposed into 4 components: (1) the odds that the outbreak would occur in the People’s Republic of China (PRC); (2) the odds that the outbreak would occur in Wuhan, conditional on its location in PRC; (3) the odds of observing the spatiotemporal pattern of confirmed COVID-19 cases with no known link to the specific wholesale market where wildlife mammals were being sold, conditional on the outbreak taking place in Wuhan; and (4) the odds of observing the spatiotemporal pattern of confirmed vendor cases at that market, conditional on the outbreak taking place in Wuhan.
“These four conditional Bayes factors are estimated as 2.3:1, 20:1, 27:1, and 12:1, respectively, and hence the overall odds ratio is 14,900:1, indicating overwhelming evidence in favor of the hypothesis that the pandemic resulted from an accidental lab leak. This conclusion is robust to alternative specifications of the detailed statistical analysis.”
The evidence just isn't there for Certainly Wet Market, Probably Lab Leak and Certainly Lab Leak positions. There's plenty of speculation, but little to no actual evidence, for Lab Leak. In the public domain at least, which is all we can work with.
That would be a good neutral expert opinion
Ex-MP fears new council will adopt contentious legal term that threatens free speech"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/02/04/muslim-labour-definition-islamophobia-rayner-free-speech/
We're rockers and rappers united and strong.
We're here to talk about Gaza we don't like what's going on
It's time for some justice it's time for the truth
We've realized there's only one thing we can do
I ain't gonna play Trump City
Relocation to phony homelands
Separation of families I can't understand
2 to 3 million can't vote because they're Arab
We're stabbing our brothers and sisters in the back
I ain't gonna play Trump City
Remember “lab leak is a racist conspiracy theory”.
Remember when just talking about it got you banned from Facebook and Twitter
You didn’t have a problem with “religious certainty” then, did you? Nor did @kinabalu when he was “99% wet market!!” You knew and you were CERTAIN
Now the overwhelming evidence points the opposite way and suddenly it’s “oh well we will never know” and “it’s too late anyway” and “who cares it’s all long ago only 20 million died let’s talk about Lucy Letby” - @turbotubbs
It’s putrid, it’s laughable, it’s wrong, it’s immoral - and worst of all it is intellectually feeble
A pop classic. From the EIGHTIES.
https://youtu.be/TGnuMxFnc1k
There was apparently a pause for a few days in shipments of weapons to Ukraine - which have now resumed. That sound in that interregnum was of the penny dropping.
"Here you are, lads. Have some more missiles. The delay was whilst we programmed in the co-ordinates that will make the biggest kerboooom...."
£1 billion. Yes, £1 billion. WTF. Country is broken.
https://www.scotsman.com/news/crime/the-scandalous-ps1-billion-scottish-prison-as-costs-soar-10-times-over-the-original-estimate-4976352
Whilst we stop oil field developments.
Hmmmm....
NEXT
At the time the Russians were the "peacekeeping" force in place.
Having skimmed the paper now (thanks Leon for kindly pointing out it was easily downloadable
That said, some very interesting assumptions, such as a complete focus on bats in some of the calculations (i.e. zoonotic, how close are bats to people), while later acknowledging that there are other more likely direct vectors to people in the zoonotic hypothesis. Some of the spatial analysis is interesting for things it omits. The market (in this analysis) seems to be one area of spread - argument is made that it came to the market from the lab, via a human, which is certainly very possible. The alternative that it came to the lab, from the market, via a human is ignored.
And that might well be the fate of neighbouring Egypt and Jordan in time, should Trump and Netanyahu forcibly deport the Palestinian population of Gaza.
For decades the answer has been unsatisfactory containment without resolution.
There is one key question first: Is a two state solution thinkable or possible? Personally I think not. The USA now thinks not too. Our government thinks differently. But I don't think Hamas or any present or future Israeli government will support a two state solution. I think that decides it. (And am happy to be wrong).
So I think the least worst option, sadly, is to start on Trump's 'one state' lines but do a lot better. But still happy to be proved wrong.
*Things might have changed from 2022.
And the Christmas Eve voice coach thing was strictly legal even if morally questionable, so there is nothing for the police or Privileges Committee to get its teeth into. Beyond some TwiX chatter from Elon's algorithm, no-one cares.
Hostage to fortune! In 20 minutes we shall see if Kemi runs with them.
That said, I still expect Starmer to follow Wilson in resigning early (see, back on topic!).