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Next PM betting, Farage remains the favourite – politicalbetting.com
Next PM betting, Farage remains the favourite – politicalbetting.com
I maintain that Farage remains a lay in this market and the value lies with somebody on the Labour side who would replace Starmer before the next election. If he was contemplating resigning after the Hartlepool by election defeat then he might actually quit if things go sub-optimally during the rest of his premiership.
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Hmmm
UK Govt denies increased charges for Chagos deal exist.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czj3w9k7gxxo
Based on erformance so far Darren Jones looks value, though that isn't how it'll be decided. Cooper has bottled her opportunities so far so seems unlikely.
That said Government communications remain shockingly inept.
Which is presumably why half the cabinet is furiously briefing against the deal.
‘We warned you,’ Arab Americans in Michigan tell Kamala Harris
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2024/11/6/we-warned-you-arab-americans-in-michigan-tell-kamala-harris
I think Rayner is value at 19.
Chagos has started ramping up - the Today programme got stuck in this morning with the political correspondent saying this has been quiet but will grow when people start hearing the cost.
Apart from the annoying use as usual of “give them back to Mauritius” (they were never Mauritian territory but simply administered from there by the French then
the Brits) our Amol was quite cutting about it, didn’t try and gotcha Priti who was on talking about it and effectively said it’s a story that’s going to grow.
So whilst Leon is the most influential person in all the media I think this story might have built without him talking about it here yesterday.
It could mean they are even worse.
We warned them...and it's not as though Trump hadn't been incredibly pro-Israeli in his first term (American Embassy to Jerusalem being the most notable).
🌳 CON 26% (+2)
🌹 LAB 24% (-1)
➡️ REF UK 24% (-1)
🔶 LIB DEM 13% (nc)
🌍 GREEN 6% (-1)
🟡 SNP 3% (+1)
N = 2,044 Dates: 31/1- 3/2, Change w 27/1
https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3lhg3xkwbjc2t
First poll with the Tories in the lead for a while.
I'm surprised we're not getting that transparency.
https://www.indy100.com/politics/andrew-tate-bruv-party-politics-2670792411
He's a kind of righty-narcissist to Brand's lefty-narcissist.
He's probably due Taki's slot in the Speccie, at least until any conviction comes through.
Let's see how "Trash the State" populism looks by then.
I can think of a country of which Trump has some oversight that could take them.
PM Farage otoh…
Jordan and Egypt need to take millions of immigrants, some of them terrible criminals so we can build a Gaza Riviera.
He said he didn’t want to be a wise guy and he’s managed it.
I thought he was currently a self-appointed wellness guru for abused and oppressed women - and was doing things Maharishi style.
All (alleged) sex abusers together, I guess.
Anyhoo: the Bruv Party's core values are quite something:
https://www.votebruv.co.uk/
Bonus Brand:
Brand dismissed the anti-Trump campaign as "hysterical" and argued that a greater threat to democracy is the growing power of tech giants, which he claims fuels censorship, war funding, and division among Americans.
https://www.express.co.uk/celebrity-news/2003046/russell-brand-donald-trump-inauguration
£1,080,000,000,000
I may be wrong but I don’t think historically there was any evacuation of the civilian population when rebuilding area-bombed cities. In fact they were directly involved in reconstruction (Trümmerfrau etc).
All politics is relative, even this one. So points:
1) Clearly Trump intends to start a new middle east negotiation start point and position, and will have achieved this.
2) Has anyone got a better one?
3) I and most of us (I imagine) have long supported a two state solution. But SFAICS none of the parties do, most supporting a one state solution. So two state stuff isn't happening, not since the October massacre and Gaza'a becoming rubble.
4) What is the best one state solution which can be regarded as possible within the obvious constraints. Is it not most likely to be a radical but reluctantly agreed modification of Trump's appaarently absurd starting point?
I think he might have meant pro rata, but since no one actually knows what the figures are, it might just be the usual hyperbole ?
Was Partygate criticism on here deserving of just the one thread? The Trussterfuck?
Could it be, just by chance, that you don’t want Labour fuck ups talked about because it’s easier than putting your hand up and admitting “your team” has messed up?
It’s ok to be wrong. It’s cathartic to admit it is wrong. It’s better than continuing down a wrong path.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Line,_Saudi_Arabia
How convenient.
For once, the Al Jazeera headline is a more sober assessment.
‘Insane’: Rights advocates denounce Trump’s call for US to ‘own’ Gaza
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2025/2/5/insane-rights-advocates-denounce-trumps-call-for-us-to-own-gaza
1) leaders are rarely replaced by someone like themselves, they are replaced with a person who corrects or over corrects the deficiencies of the outgoing leader.
2) leaders are replaced by senior frontbenchers, or recent front benches, particularly when in government.
3) There will be a desire to have a female leader.
Reeves is out because of 1.
So I am backing Rayner, Cooper and Phillipson as next PM, and of these Rayner or Cooper seems most likely.
You may not like Rayner, but you are not the electorate for this contest, the Labour Party MPs, members and Trade Unions are. As she was previous shop steward the Unions will back Rayner.
By scaling up the (if unremedied) in year hidden running costs of the fiscal black hole, multiplying by 100 and indexing, I reckon the fiscal black hole the Tories bequeathed this government is around 10 trillion pounds.
We don't know exactly the Chagos deal, it will come before parliament first, but we know it is along these lines.
Thank you America.
And you are correct I laughed loudest when Johnson's tomfoolery was being called into question, although not so much with Truss and Sunak.
My observation was focused on the poster who can quite impressively make himself centre of attention by hijacking a thread. Normally it is his holidays, the club he is a member of or an expensive lunch in Mayfair. Yesterday was very much on a political topic. No two ways about it he owned the thread. I was just hoping he won't own this one.
The chances of Farage becoming PM are therefore overestimated by the bookies. Even to get most seats Reform would need to rise further to 28% and even then Farage would have to do a deal with Kemi
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/feb/05/scientists-find-that-things-really-do-seem-better-in-the-morning?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
It isn't moral outrage. If it was we would close the base down and give the Chagossians their island back. The UK and US have no more moral right to the island than Mauritius, but legally it's theirs, as determined by clear and well established international law. So it's entirely transactional. The British, but in reality the Americans, get their base and the Mauritians get the money from a lease, which seems to be at the going rate for such bases. Everyone is happy, except the Chagossians, but nobody cares about them.
So Jenrick, a shadow bench member and likely next leader of the opposition calls Starmer a Quisling, and looks completely demented.
So good that if you are a Palestinian you actively don’t want to spend the day throwing rocks at Israeli border posts or joining death cults because, you know, you get to take your girlfriend to a nice beachfront cafe and look at the coastline that Trump covets and then you can go for a nice spot of dinner in a restaurant that’s not going to be bonbed then sleep and get up for a day at work in the job created by rebuilding and redevelopment rather than being one of the “lucky ones” who get to stay to hand out towels on the beach to fat Americans.
the Brits)"
I don't think you can dismiss the claims of Mauritius quite so easily.
Here is the summary of the 2019 ICJ advisory opinion on the matter:
https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/169/169-20190225-SUM-01-00-EN.pdf
when it decided 13-1 that
having regard to international law, the process of decolonization of Mauritius was not lawfully completed when that country acceded to independence in 1968, following the separation of the Chagos Archipelago.
the United Kingdom is under an obligation to bring to an end its administration of the Chagos Archipelago as rapidly as possible.
all Member States are under an obligation to co-operate with the United Nations in order to complete the decolonization of Mauritius.
The reasons are given in the document.
This FPT is quite interesting, and illustrates several things: 1 - That's an AI yank-from-the-internet, missing context or history. That's the Twatter-culture problem right there, as seen in Musk yanking untrue snippets from all over and blasting them at his 135m followers who, often being unthinking twits, just swallow it all.
(Hint: for anyone still wading in the Twitter swamp, you can block Musk.)
2 - It's missing that (at least for a Christian view) that OT Law is viewed through the lens of the NT (or for Roman Catholics, the tradition of the Church), and the Mosaic law needs to be compared with mores of the time.
3 - That imo is why Dawkins never got anywhere; he was a reductionist who thought everyone shared his nuance-free cultural spectacles - they don't.
4 - The problem for the Trumpvangelicals is that (being a rootless post-Enlightenment movement) they treat their holy text approximately the same way as Dawkins, with tradition and nuance excised.
And they can be left doing analysis-paralysis trying to divide a whole field of dots and tittles from underlying principles, which are a different ball game, when their Lord and Saviour basically declared the dots and tittles obsolete in one fell swoop.
5 - I find interesting that both Trump and Vance (who does Beano level theology) seem scared of debate. When Bishop Budde, or Rory Stewart, pointed out a couple of the bits they lost when they put their Bibles through the shredding machine, their response was to demonise, not debate or defend their position.
I think this will be one vector of critique for the Trump administration. They can try and buy all the rest, or intimidate people into silence. That won't deliver with religious professionals.
£3,042,000,000,000
On (4), if one is to have a 1-state solution, it doesn't have to involve ethnic cleansing. So, no.
Ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity. It is not the solution to anything. It is not a starting point to anything.
Always disappointing. One tiny sliver of bacon, an OK sausage, some fancy (ie tinned tomato flavoured) baked beans, and 2 flabby fried eggs for £7.29.
I did consider the spoons, which would have been much better value for money, but I feared missing the train.
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
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The problem with the "Mad Man Strategy" is that after a while people stop taking you seriously. Everyone knows this is utterly insane and won't happen. So how is it putting pressure on anyone to negotiate.