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Fewer than one in ten people think Badenoch would make the best PM – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    My photo of the day.

    I’m at the golf.


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    carnforth said:

    Canadian Federal Court to allow challenge on Trudeau's prorogation.

    https://x.com/Gray_Mackenzie/status/1880764999066661053

    Wonder if they will consider our recent decision on the matter - sometimes courts consider cases in other similar legal jurisdictions...

    Canadian commentators have done so, though ive seen at least one anti Trudeau legal commentator say its awful but not unlawful.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Carnyx said:

    Hmm. But 'not so much more that it's shocking prfligacy for the average' person? We obvs live in different circles!
    I spend very little on such things, i might do that in a week. But £12 is in a range imaginable by normal people. Perhaps not every day, like you say, but a few quid a day to 12 pound is not a multiplier to get people excited.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,771
    Good morning everyone.

    So, how long before Richard Tice become the "MP for Skegness and Dubai", just as Sir Stuart Bell was the MP for Middlesbrough and Paris?

    Aside: I had missed the "Woke Milk" conspiracy theory that Tice and Lowe were promoting in December.

    https://archive.is/20241208174904/https://www.thetimes.com/uk/healthcare/article/arla-bovaer-engineered-milk-conspiracy-hs70qm9xl
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,539
    edited January 19
    kle4 said:

    I don't see the benefit for a politician. It increases the odds youll say something stupid and get caught, no one engages with an MP positively that way, and you'll get told if theres stuff on twitter you need to know.

    Politicians and billionaires for that matter just create opportunity to look as foolish as the rest if us if they spend time on social media.

    Especially if they like a drink or Ketamin.
    I have two Twitter accounts. I'd long since stopped posting on my personal one - once I had to go and expunge stuff from the past it became a pain in the bum. Then I created one for my YouTube profile and was using it to mine info on Tesla. Problem is that the best sources of info are also in the Musk lunacy bubble. So I went onto the "For You" tab to see what the Muskorithm wanted to serve me.

    Its lunacy. I don't watch GBeebies or TalkTV because I don't have time to waste being fed guff. Yet there I was doomscrolling Twitter, agog at the mass of people waiting for the second coming of the great prophet Tommy.

    As Spike the Vampire said mid-song, bugger this.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,403
    edited January 19
    kle4 said:

    Canadian commentators have done so, though ive seen at least one anti Trudeau legal commentator say its awful but not unlawful.
    IIRC the surprise with our decision amongst legal scholars was that the supreme court considered it "justiciable" at all. Once they decided it was, and thus felt able to consider the matter, I don't think many were surprised by the actual judgement.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 852
    HYUFD said:

    It had a Deputy PM less than 10 years ago
    So depressingly 20% are Farage groupies, a poll of which would be a total disaster might be more revealing.
    I'd make Farage just under evens to be better than Truss, though that could be poor judgement of how bad it could be in international relations.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,986
    Barnesian said:

    Ed Davey reminds me of Rory Kinnear who did make a decent PM.


    On his last outing Kinnear came close to killing a former Tory campaign manager which might be considered by Sir Ed for his next stunt.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,364
    ydoethur said:

    A Labour leader severing past four Tory leaders and into his fifth would equal Blair's record. And it took Blair over 11 years to reach that point.

    One thing perhaps we should all remember about Starmer is his remarkable capacity for confounding expectations. It's less than five years since Hartlepool when we were all talking about the imminent Labour leadership election and who would replace him.

    A labour leader severing the past four Tory leaders would be… controversial?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    edited January 19
    Sandpit said:

    My photo of the day.

    I’m at the golf.


    I've got that on. I'll try and spot you.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,656

    Catering at Parliament is having a bad rep at the moment.

    As to £12.70 for a steak - that’s a not absurd price for a takeaway lunch in London now.
    A Pizza Hut, a Pizza Hut, Kentucky Fried Chicken and a Pizza Hut
    A Pizza Hut, a Pizza Hut, Kentucky Fried Chicken and a Pizza Hut
    McDonalds, McDonalds, Kentucky Fried Chicken and a Pizza Hut
    McDonalds, McDonalds, Kentucky Fried Chicken and a Pizza Hut

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOC9d17vASc
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,219
    edited January 19
    carnforth said:

    IIRC the surprise with our decision amongst legal scholars was that the supreme court considered it "justiciable" at all. Once they decided it was, and thus felt able to consider the matter, I don't think many were surprised by the actual judgement.
    I wasn’t really a fan of the ruling. I think Parliament is entitled to set its own rules and limits on the principles of prorogation. I was not convinced that the courts had a role at that point. The fact that I thought the actions of the Johnson government highly questionable were neither here nor there - it was for the public to judge him on his actions, in my view.

    I am sure a lot of constitutional lawyers would disagree with me - just how I saw it.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,322
    This is an excellent interview with Ian Hislop

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diHcpZvBjT0

    He covers Musk very well (I had forgotten the time he referred to the rescuer of the boys in the caves as a peodo). @leon won't be amused.

    He also covers very well certain media coverage of Starmer and Labour and Labour's poor performance so far:

    a) They have put themselves in an impossible corner re tax/spending/borrowing
    b) Certain parts of the media (replicated on here by the usual suspects) of it's a disaster within minutes of taking office. It may well be, but really you had no idea if that was the case after 5 minutes and even after a few days the worse it could be said was 'Well what exactly are you going to do, because so far you haven't really said anything meaningful'
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited January 19
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    A
    Cicero said:

    While I am partisan, I do genuinely think that Sir Ed is wildly underestimated. I think his clear move towards Rejoin is carving out unique territory for the Lib Dems, and he also has some very impressive people on the Lib Dem benches. People know that Farage is a media creature and Brexit is now an unambiguous failure. Few of the extremely partisan commentators in the media give him the time of day, but it is Sir Ed, not Farage, that has the Parliamentary advantage. Watch this space for astute and intelligent moves.
    I’m surprised at the Lib Dem’s who want to dump their leader. In favour of whom exactly? By what metric do they think they are not doing well enough and who/how could this be improved?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,294
    FF43 said:

    Ed Davey likely would make a decent PM, certainly better than two others on that list.

    He comes from a party that hasn't produced prime ministers for a hundred years however.

    Given the anti-politics-as-usual vibe in Britain right now, this could be a positive.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    Carnyx said:
    Yes, true links golf is almost a different game.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,219
    Cicero said:

    While I am partisan, I do genuinely think that Sir Ed is wildly underestimated. I think his clear move towards Rejoin is carving out unique territory for the Lib Dems, and he also has some very impressive people on the Lib Dem benches. People know that Farage is a media creature and Brexit is now an unambiguous failure. Few of the extremely partisan commentators in the media give him the time of day, but it is Sir Ed, not Farage, that has the Parliamentary advantage. Watch this space for astute and intelligent moves.
    Parliamentary advantage means little with a government majority as it is and with Farage being such a media creature.

    That said, there is an opportunity for the LDs. Davey needs some eye catching policies and to set himself up in opposition now. They need to pivot from the friendly opposition to being more critical now.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,364

    She hasn't 'struggled with air time', she hasn't done any interviews.

    Which is probably just as well as she has nothing to say.
    A set piece interview is not the only way to communicate
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,364
    TimS said:

    I assume it’s an ironic take on Tory comments about young people and avocado on toast / Netflix / not being able to buy a house.
    Not if you read the article

    They worked out it would be £65 if she
    bought steak every day and calculated it was 55% more than the average weekly spend on lunch
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,965

    I have two Twitter accounts. I'd long since stopped posting on my personal one - once I had to go and expunge stuff from the past it became a pain in the bum. Then I created one for my YouTube profile and was using it to mine info on Tesla. Problem is that the best sources of info are also in the Musk lunacy bubble. So I went onto the "For You" tab to see what the Muskorithm wanted to serve me.

    Its lunacy. I don't watch GBeebies or TalkTV because I don't have time to waste being fed guff. Yet there I was doomscrolling Twitter, agog at the mass of people waiting for the second coming of the great prophet Tommy.

    As Spike the Vampire said mid-song, bugger this.
    I've de-activated my Twitter account and moved to BlueSky.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,364
    TimS said:

    The Star seems more that inclined, I don’t read the Mirror either but the connection seems too obvious not to be the trigger.

    £12.70 is actually quite reasonable for a steak.
    It’s a takeaway not a proper steak - but it costs about that much for a self-mixed salad from a London takeaway these days

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,965

    A

    I’m surprised at the Lib Dem’s who want to dump their leader. In favour of whom exactly? By what metric do they think they are not doing well enough and who/how could this be improved?
    I haven't come across any Lib Dem who wants to dump Ed Davey as leader.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,570

    A

    I’m surprised at the Lib Dem’s who want to dump their leader. In favour of whom exactly? By what metric do they think they are not doing well enough and who/how could this be improved?
    Here's a metric:

    Since the GE Labour have dropped from 35% to around 25%. But the LibDems have flatlined.

    Not good enough.
  • I have two Twitter accounts. I'd long since stopped posting on my personal one - once I had to go and expunge stuff from the past it became a pain in the bum. Then I created one for my YouTube profile and was using it to mine info on Tesla. Problem is that the best sources of info are also in the Musk lunacy bubble. So I went onto the "For You" tab to see what the Muskorithm wanted to serve me.

    Its lunacy. I don't watch GBeebies or TalkTV because I don't have time to waste being fed guff. Yet there I was doomscrolling Twitter, agog at the mass of people waiting for the second coming of the great prophet Tommy.

    As Spike the Vampire said mid-song, bugger this.
    This post deserves a like merely for the Spike reference.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,570

    A set piece interview is not the only way to communicate
    Indeed. Spouting shite and making yourself look like an idiot is an alternative approach.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923
    TimS said:

    The Star seems more that inclined, I don’t read the Mirror either but the connection seems too obvious not to be the trigger.

    £12.70 is actually quite reasonable for a steak.
    you would struggle hard to get a burger outside McDonalds basic , for that nowadays
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,484

    Not if you read the article

    They worked out it would be £65 if she
    bought steak every day and calculated it was 55% more than the average weekly spend on lunch
    I make a packed lunch most days but if I go out to lunch I obviously spend more. It's cheaper than Wetherspoons FFS, although at Spoons you get a pint included. Many people will spend more at Starbucks on any given day.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,227
    Dura_Ace said:

    I've always liked him because he represented the McLibel Two. I wouldn't vote for the c-nt in a million years though.

    And he can grind.
    If I never see word grind in a PB post again it will be too soon.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,484

    I wasn’t really a fan of the ruling. I think Parliament is entitled to set its own rules and limits on the principles of prorogation. I was not convinced that the courts had a role at that point. The fact that I thought the actions of the Johnson government highly questionable were neither here nor there - it was for the public to judge him on his actions, in my view.

    I am sure a lot of constitutional lawyers would disagree with me - just how I saw it.
    I disagree, Parliament shouldn't be able to set its own rules on prorogation, it is quite rightly a prorogative matter for the Crown. Once it was decided that it was justiciable - ie that the Crown can't behave irrationally - the ruling seemed to make sense
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,965
    edited January 19

    Here's a metric:

    Since the GE Labour have dropped from 35% to around 25%. But the LibDems have flatlined.

    Not good enough.
    The Lib Dem strategy has been totally and successfully focused on target seats. The national share was irrelevant. 100 seats at 50% and the rest at 5% gives a national share of about 13%, which is a meaningless measure.

    However this strategy limits the Lib Dems to being a junior party in a coalition (hiss) or C&S.

    I think there will be a change to a more national campaign (on top of the local campaigns) to broaden the ambition. Ed Davey's recent call for joining the customs union might a sign of that.

    National share will then become an important metric.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714
    A confession. I really don't give a flying fuck what Kemi has for lunch, or how much it costs.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923
    Cicero said:

    While I am partisan, I do genuinely think that Sir Ed is wildly underestimated. I think his clear move towards Rejoin is carving out unique territory for the Lib Dems, and he also has some very impressive people on the Lib Dem benches. People know that Farage is a media creature and Brexit is now an unambiguous failure. Few of the extremely partisan commentators in the media give him the time of day, but it is Sir Ed, not Farage, that has the Parliamentary advantage. Watch this space for astute and intelligent moves.
    I see him acting the clown but have heard not one word before or after the election , he is invisible. Appears to have no opinion on anything or any policies to solve our woes. If they are impressive these Lib Dems are very good at hiding their light under a bushel.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,170

    If I never see word grind in a PB post again it will be too soon.
    Grind up some rocks and chuck them on your allotment, you'll feel better.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923
    Taz said:

    Let them.

    They’ve lost.

    A hardcore will never give up but they have, to all intents and purposes, lost and rightly wont get a penny.

    Will I get compensation as I’ve no recollection of a letter telling me my pension age has gone up twice, from 65 to 66 to 67 ? Of course not and neither should I

    Post Office scandal has real victims. WASPI lot are entitled boomers.
    You had to have been living on Mars not to know that pension ages were changing. These people are just the perfect illustration of the decline in principles, grifters looking for something for nothing.
    As you say lots of people lost , both my wife and I got stiffed , not nice but I knew it was coming for many years.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,570
    Barnesian said:

    The Lib Dem strategy has been totally and successfully focused on target seats. The national share was irrelevant. 100 seats at 50% and the rest at 5% gives a national share of about 13%, which is a meaningless measure.

    However this strategy limits the Lib Dems to being a junior party in a coalition (hiss) or C&S.

    I think there will be a change to a more national campaign (on top of the local campaigns) to broaden the ambition. Ed Davey's recent call for joining the customs union might a sign of that.

    National share will then become an important metric.
    While the targeting at the GE was, of course, very successful, you must be concerned that the LDs have failed to progress as Labour support has declined?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,227
    edited January 19

    She is a symptom of the problem, not the problem.

    The Tories have lost touch with what they stand for. Instead of being the party of small business they became the party of fuck business. Instead of being the party of the Union they became the party of partitioning off NI. Instead of being the party of fiscal prudence and low taxes they vastly increased both the national debt and taxes, and managed to leave us broke for good measure.

    For a long time, Tory leaders would look fondly back onto Thatcher and say "I am she". Like corrupted Caesars in Rome, they say it but have long forgotten what it is they are supposed to be replicating. Take Kemi away and replace her, and they'll get another idiot. We know that actual Tories still exist, but the party has long since stopped voting for them.

    This is why they are being replaced by Reform. Hate him or despise him, Farage and his band of fukers have honed the message to cut through not just to the formerly Tory faithful but to the young and dispossessed as well. They *sound* like radical Tories. The actual Tories can't out radical them, and we can all see that they don't actually believe it.
    I think the Tories' future is as the M&S to Reform's Tesco. Better heeled, more rural shires based, potentially leaning into broader based fundraising from wealthier members rather than huge money donations from the likes of Hester to make the sums add up. More solutions-based too - use their greater political knowledge base to create more detailed and workable policy proposals rather than just cries of anger (not that I am against cries of anger).

    That's a way to securing the party's future and potentially being the power behind a future right-wing Government. I'm not sure it's the way back to being the dominant party of Government in a two-party system, but that ship may have sailed.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,570

    A confession. I really don't give a flying fuck what Kemi has for lunch, or how much it costs.

    I think people were more agitated that she was slagging off what they were having for their lunch.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923

    A confession. I really don't give a flying fuck what Kemi has for lunch, or how much it costs.

    My only concern is that we pay for it and compared to Truss it is peanuts.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,227
    malcolmg said:

    I see him acting the clown but have heard not one word before or after the election , he is invisible. Appears to have no opinion on anything or any policies to solve our woes. If they are impressive these Lib Dems are very good at hiding their light under a bushel.
    He does do a great line in twatting about in a pond though, so there's that.
  • This post deserves a like merely for the Spike reference.
    Once More with Feeling indeed. I've been singing along with the Twitter lunacy, feeling increasingly perplexed about the lyrics. Until suddenly you get that moment of clarity, look at yourself, say "bugger this" and walk.

    I used the same analogy when I literally walked out of the Labour Party after nearly 25 years.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923

    I think people were more agitated that she was slagging off what they were having for their lunch.
    Usual thick rich snob opinion from her, just what you would expect.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,484

    Not if you read the article

    They worked out it would be £65 if she
    bought steak every day and calculated it was 55% more than the average weekly spend on lunch
    Given that she (rightly) earns more than 155% of the average wage, that is quite economical of her. If I worked near one I am sure I would have one occasionally, especially as you can get it in a low carb version (you can order it with spinach instead of a carb). One if the reasons I rarely buy lunch these days is it is very difficult to buy a low carb lunch with enough calories in, whereas I can make one easy peasy
  • malcolmg said:

    you would struggle hard to get a burger outside McDonalds basic , for that nowadays
    Good morning

    A local restaurant is offering fish and chips for 2 for £27.50

    I really do not know how people afford to eat out regularly

    Coming from solid NE Scottish fishing stock my good lady likes nothing better than haddock and chips, and I cook it regularly for us.

    It costs just £5.00 for the 2 of us including petit pois peas

    And as for Kemi's lunchtime steak have we really become this banal ?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923

    He does do a great line in twatting about in a pond though, so there's that.
    Yes and for sure could not be worse than Starmer. So few choices now that he may well get a chance.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867

    Good morning

    A local restaurant is offering fish and chips for 2 for £27.50

    I really do not know how people afford to eat out regularly

    Coming from solid NE Scottish fishing stock my good lady likes nothing better than haddock and chips, and I cook it regularly for us.

    It costs just £5.00 for the 2 of us including petit pois peas

    And as for Kemi's lunchtime steak have we really become this banal ?
    We haven't asked the all important question.

    Does she take it with French or English?

    Er, French or English mustard, I mean.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,227
    edited January 19

    Given that she (rightly) earns more than 155% of the average wage, that is quite economical of her. If I worked near one I am sure I would have one occasionally, especially as you can get it in a low carb version (you can order it with spinach instead of a carb). One if the reasons I rarely buy lunch these days is it is very difficult to buy a low carb lunch with enough calories in, whereas I can make one easy peasy
    I applaud her for getting a lunch that she feels she performs well on. However, the results so far from the steak do little to undermine the case for veganism.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,301
    ydoethur said:

    We haven't asked the all important question.

    Does she take it with French or English?

    Er, French or English mustard, I mean.
    Rare or well done is the ultimate judge of character.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Good morning

    A local restaurant is offering fish and chips for 2 for £27.50

    I really do not know how people afford to eat out regularly

    Coming from solid NE Scottish fishing stock my good lady likes nothing better than haddock and chips, and I cook it regularly for us.

    It costs just £5.00 for the 2 of us including petit pois peas

    And as for Kemi's lunchtime steak have we really become this banal ?
    It's to do with the fact that many young people can't afford houses, and how the Right blamed it on them buying avocados, Starbucks coffee, and other Woke comestibles.

    Rightly or wrongly - but this is politics and there is (just about) enough logic in the matter to suit.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited January 19
    malcolmg said:

    Usual thick rich snob opinion from her, just what you would expect.
    Who needs steak when there are mutton pies? (Or haggis/neeps/tats, or cheesy mac, if preferred.)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,227
    In more Jenrick news, he's Conhome members' panel MP of the year, though to be fair Badenoch is second.
    https://conservativehome.com/2025/01/19/our-survey-jenrick-is-conservativehome-readers-2024-mp-of-the-year/

    This reminded me, where is Priti Patel? I've heard not a peep from her since the leadership election. According to this she's been defending Boris's immigration policy, and oddly she did seem on a bit of a journey leftward during the leadership race. If there were ever a time for Priti Patel, it's now, so it's odd how she's gone so off the boil.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,429

    In more Jenrick news, he's Conhome members' panel MP of the year, though to be fair Badenoch is second.
    https://conservativehome.com/2025/01/19/our-survey-jenrick-is-conservativehome-readers-2024-mp-of-the-year/

    This reminded me, where is Priti Patel? I've heard not a peep from her since the leadership election. According to this she's been defending Boris's immigration policy, and oddly she did seem on a bit of a journey leftward during the leadership race. If there were ever a time for Priti Patel, it's now, so it's odd how she's gone so off the boil.

    She won’t want to be saying anything that would be a hostage to fortune if she is contemplating moving to Reform.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,429
    Carnyx said:

    Who needs steak when there are mutton pies? (Or haggis/neeps/tats, or cheesy mac, if preferred.)
    Someone who values their cardiac health?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    Carnyx said:

    You two don't lunch together daily. The implication in her case is £12.70 a day - implying well upward of £2K a year.

    And it's not so long ago that Gen Xers and millennials' lack of housing was blamed by Tories on a liking for avocados.

    Edit: I have no particuiar opinion on the matter myself. But one can see how it goes down (so to speak) in a society where a Sainsbury or Boots Meal Deal is luxury for many.
    It's bugger all to do with what she spends, I suspect.
    More a comment on her sandwich ukase.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    Foss said:

    Rare or well done is the ultimate judge of character.
    Porterhouse Blue, surely?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    Barnesian said:

    Ed Davey reminds me of Rory Kinnear who did make a decent PM.


    He was more a weird mix of Boris and IDS in that.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    malcolmg said:

    My only concern is that we pay for it and compared to Truss it is peanuts.
    You can't do a hard day's tory leadering just eating peanuts.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 852

    Not if you read the article

    They worked out it would be £65 if she
    bought steak every day and calculated it was 55% more than the average weekly spend on lunch
    It's a far cry from the days of Paul Foot.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690
    I think the Tories need to find their version of Pierre Polievre to be really successful. I've watched a few of his videos and the way he explains complicated concepts to voters is brilliant and the way he's able to link it back to poor government policy is deadly.

    I don't know who that person is or if they're even an MP. If Kemi wants to succeed she could do a lot worse than to take lessons from him and straight up copy the style.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288

    I wasn’t really a fan of the ruling. I think Parliament is entitled to set its own rules and limits on the principles of prorogation. I was not convinced that the courts had a role at that point. The fact that I thought the actions of the Johnson government highly questionable were neither here nor there - it was for the public to judge him on his actions, in my view.

    I am sure a lot of constitutional lawyers would disagree with me - just how I saw it.
    Parliament is.
    But if wants to do so on a matter governed by existing law, it has to legislate.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,471
    edited January 19
    Foss said:

    Rare or well done is the ultimate judge of character.
    Both is best. I’m cooking a roast rib of beef for lunch. You want the rare leanish stuff in the middle and the nice crispy fatty endy bits well done.
  • CJohnCJohn Posts: 75
    malcolmg said:

    I see him acting the clown but have heard not one word before or after the election , he is invisible. Appears to have no opinion on anything or any policies to solve our woes. If they are impressive these Lib Dems are very good at hiding their light under a bushel.
    Just this week I had that Ed Davey being highly praised in the only rag I ever read - the FT. Malcolm, it was a speech on forming a customs' union with the EU.

    What is all this shit about "appears to have no opinion"? He's a politician: he's got opinions and policies on everything.





  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,800
    edited January 19
    Carnyx said:

    It's to do with the fact that many young people can't afford houses, and how the Right blamed it on them buying avocados, Starbucks coffee, and other Woke comestibles.

    Rightly or wrongly - but this is politics and there is (just about) enough logic in the matter to suit.
    I am not of that mindset and think Kemi needs to think long and hard on how she can change young people's lives for the better

    She certainly has questioned the sustainability of the triple lock which by 2029 will cost £169 billion, more than Education and Defence combined

    Starmer has guaranteed the triple lock for the parliament and boasts about it, whilst his new treasury minister, Torsten Bell, is very much against it

    There just has to be a rebalance to workers and young people from feather nesting pensioners, and in particular wealthy ones
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,570

    In more Jenrick news, he's Conhome members' panel MP of the year, though to be fair Badenoch is second.
    https://conservativehome.com/2025/01/19/our-survey-jenrick-is-conservativehome-readers-2024-mp-of-the-year/

    This reminded me, where is Priti Patel? I've heard not a peep from her since the leadership election. According to this she's been defending Boris's immigration policy, and oddly she did seem on a bit of a journey leftward during the leadership race. If there were ever a time for Priti Patel, it's now, so it's odd how she's gone so off the boil.

    It is always time for Priti Patel.

    I've incorrectly tipped her to be the next Tory leader at least 3 times already!
  • CJohnCJohn Posts: 75
    Everybody is writing Kemi off, but she's only been in the job three months.

    Are you all assuming she's incapable of change?

    She MAY be.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,339

    She won’t want to be saying anything that would be a hostage to fortune if she is contemplating moving to Reform.
    Or even a sausage to fortune...
  • CJohnCJohn Posts: 75
    Almost everybody on here is writing Kemi Bad off. But she's only been in the job for three months.

    You're all assuming she's incapable of change.

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,965
    edited January 19

    While the targeting at the GE was, of course, very successful, you must be concerned that the LDs have failed to progress as Labour support has declined?
    Puzzled rather than concerned.

    Looking at the latest YouGov poll, Labour has lost 30% of its GE vote. 10% to LD, 8% to Ref, 5% to Green and 5% to Con (Sub Sample 650)
    So more to LD than Reform, but small sample.

    LDs have also lost 8% of its GE vote back to Labour. Presumably Labour LD tactical voters moving back to Labour in answering the poll.

  • CJohnCJohn Posts: 75
    Likewise, too many off you are writing Labour off after six months.

    They, like Kemi, are probably capable of learning from their early mistakes.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,471
    Barnesian said:

    Puzzled rather than concerned.

    Looking at the latest YouGov poll, Labour has lost 30% of its GE vote. 10% to LD, 8% to Ref, 5% to Green and 5% to Con (Sub Sample 650)
    So more to LD than Reform, but small sample.

    LDs have also lost 8% of its GE vote back to Labour. Presumably Labour LD tactical voters moving back to Labour in answering the poll.

    Lib Dem support before the election was so correlated with Labour support that for the party to be flat is not too bad.

    Performance at the next election will be all about how well or badly the Tories perform. If they bounce back then the Lib Dems lose seats even if they gain share. But if Reform surges at Tory expense then that’s much better news for LD. It also helps them to self-define as the opposite to Reform.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    CJohn said:

    Almost everybody on here is writing Kemi Bad off. But she's only been in the job for three months.

    You're all assuming she's incapable of change.

    I doubt more than 10% know who she is.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,484
    Barnesian said:

    Puzzled rather than concerned.

    Looking at the latest YouGov poll, Labour has lost 30% of its GE vote. 10% to LD, 8% to Ref, 5% to Green and 5% to Con (Sub Sample 650)
    So more to LD than Reform, but small sample.

    LDs have also lost 8% of its GE vote back to Labour. Presumably Labour LD tactical voters moving back to Labour in answering the poll.

    Haven't the LDs lost any support back to the Tories? Round here on the Hants/Surrey border there was a big swing to the LDs in Tory seats where Labour normally come nowhere
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031

    It is always time for Priti Patel.

    I've incorrectly tipped her to be the next Tory leader at least 3 times already!
    Must be even more galling that she's one of the few who HASN'T been Tory leader in recent years...
  • In more Jenrick news, he's Conhome members' panel MP of the year, though to be fair Badenoch is second.
    https://conservativehome.com/2025/01/19/our-survey-jenrick-is-conservativehome-readers-2024-mp-of-the-year/

    This reminded me, where is Priti Patel? I've heard not a peep from her since the leadership election. According to this she's been defending Boris's immigration policy, and oddly she did seem on a bit of a journey leftward during the leadership race. If there were ever a time for Priti Patel, it's now, so it's odd how she's gone so off the boil.

    She is representing the conservative party at Trump's inauguration tomorrow
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,219
    CJohn said:

    Almost everybody on here is writing Kemi Bad off. But she's only been in the job for three months.

    You're all assuming she's incapable of change.

    Badenoch isnt doing as badly as some say, but it’s fair to say she isn’t doing great, either.

    She’s leading the Tories at a time no-one wants to listen to them and after a historic defeat. I have said before that anyone they chose as a leader would be finding it hard to get a hearing at the moment. Kemi’s low ratings are partly to do with this.

    Her goal is to get that hearing and really the only way she can do so is to start to talk about policy.

    But let’s be honest she also needs to sharpen up and be more incisive.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,779
    edited January 19
    PJH said:

    Really? Have you tried to Google "Tiananmen Square" from China recently?
    I don't think even in China a major corporation like Tik Tok would put up an official notice saying your service depends entirely on Xi Jinping's whim. In Trump's America on the other hand ...
  • CJohnCJohn Posts: 75

    Badenoch isnt doing as badly as some say, but it’s fair to say she isn’t doing great, either.

    She’s leading the Tories at a time no-one wants to listen to them and after a historic defeat. I have said before that anyone they chose as a leader would be finding it hard to get a hearing at the moment. Kemi’s low ratings are partly to do with this.

    Her goal is to get that hearing and really the only way she can do so is to start to talk about policy.

    But let’s be honest she also needs to sharpen up and be more incisive.
    She's got one thing right: Tory priority must be to take on Reform.

    The LDs are the Tories eternal rivals, but they're not an existential threat, like Reform.

    At most, LDs can take Tory seats, but Reform can take away the Tory birthright.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,286
    FF43 said:

    I don't think even in China a major corporation like Tik Tok would put up an official notice saying your service depends entirely on Xi Jinping's whim. In Trump's America on the other hand ...
    It’s an obvious way of exerting political pressure.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,339
    CJohn said:

    Likewise, too many off you are writing Labour off after six months.

    They, like Kemi, are probably capable of learning from their early mistakes.

    Sooner or later.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,282
    FF43 said:

    I don't think even in China a major corporation like Tik Tok would put up an official notice saying your service depends entirely on Xi Jinping's whim. In Trump's America on the other hand ...
    They wouldn't be allowed to in China.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,108
    kle4 said:

    Spadification is more of a general name for the blandification and narrowing of the political class now, rather than a direct descriptor as its a holdover from around the Cameron/Ed M era

    Neither current leader may fit that particular mould, but theres a lot fewer 'normal' MPs than existed historically nonetheless.
    Look at the biographies of the new LibDem intake if you want to see some MPs with diverse real world experience.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,227
    edited January 19
    MaxPB said:

    I think the Tories need to find their version of Pierre Polievre to be really successful. I've watched a few of his videos and the way he explains complicated concepts to voters is brilliant and the way he's able to link it back to poor government policy is deadly.

    I don't know who that person is or if they're even an MP. If Kemi wants to succeed she could do a lot worse than to take lessons from him and straight up copy the style.

    I don’t think there's a huge issue with Kemi's style (though I'm sure you're right about Poilevre) - it's the substance, or lack of it, that is damaging her.

    This piece from a hopeful would-be candidate (I really have to read Conhome less) strikes a desparate tone:

    To misquote Margaret Thatcher, if you have to tell people that you’re change, you’re not. This is not 1975. Badenoch almost seems frustrated by how badly Labour are doing, since it robs her of the two years of sitting back and writing Stepping Stones 2 to which she feels she is entitled. But time is the one thing she really doesn’t have. Does she realise the existential threat that we face?

    https://conservativehome.com/2025/01/17/does-badenoch-realise-just-how-much-trouble-our-party-is-in/

    Whether Kemi has paused policy announcements due to concern about dividing the PCP (which is now at least 50% lib dem in sympathy), to conceal her own political views, genuinely wanting this long soul searching process, or a combination of all of the above, it is just going to get worse if she keeps piping up trying to 'oppose' when she has no alternative ideas.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    viewcode said:

    From the comments

    One day, Jimmy Carter's mother, Lillian, was being interviewed by a reporter. Hoping for a "gotcha", the reporter asked, "Does your son ever tell a lie?" Mrs. Carter replied, "Well, I imagine sometimes he'll tell a little white lie".

    The reporter pressed on. "What's your definition of a white lie?"

    Mrs. Carter replied, "Well, when I answered the door, I said it was nice to meet you."

    He did get a gotcha then.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,227
    CJohn said:

    She's got one thing right: Tory priority must be to take on Reform.

    The LDs are the Tories eternal rivals, but they're not an existential threat, like Reform.

    At most, LDs can take Tory seats, but Reform can take away the Tory birthright.
    The only meaningful way to 'take on Reform' is to get elected instead of them. The best way to get elected instead of them is to be seen as the more effective opposition and the better Government-in-waiting. Attacking Reform does neither of those things - it just adds to the rattled impression. Farage will be delighted if Kemi continues to rage at his party.
  • Must be even more galling that she's one of the few who HASN'T been Tory leader in recent years...
    Patel is featured in today's Telegraph about the Chagos Islands:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/01/19/priti-patel-interview/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    CJohn said:

    She's got one thing right: Tory priority must be to take on Reform.

    The LDs are the Tories eternal rivals, but they're not an existential threat, like Reform.

    At most, LDs can take Tory seats, but Reform can take away the Tory birthright.
    Depends. If the Tories didn't exist about a third of their current voters would normally go LD even if 2/3 would normally go Reform. So to be distinctive Kemi needs to ensure they keep a middle way between the 2
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333

    It is always time for Priti Patel.

    I've incorrectly tipped her to be the next Tory leader at least 3 times already!
    Priti just been on GB news in DC as she has been invited to the inaugration by Trump's team
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773
    TimS said:

    The FDP are an interesting bunch. Members of the ALDE bloc but very different from any others in that group.

    The only European party with what I’d describe as full on Thatcherite “neoliberal” policies. Forget orange book, more like a Tory party run by 1990s vintage John Redwood and Peter Lilley but with more socially liberal views. It’s a brave position to be in these days.
    Sounds pretty ideal from my perspective. Bit like the Tories under Cameron/Osborne. Socially liberal, fiscally conservative. Oh, those were the days. I frankly wonder if I will ever vote with any enthusiasm again.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559
    Taz said:

    Talking of Badenoch this is a bizarre attack on her. Spending £12.70 on a steak for lunch. So what.

    https://x.com/mikeysmith/status/1880585881658249248?s=61

    Getting utterly ripped apart in the replies. Labour must be feeling desperate if they're getting tame hacks to put out this nonsense.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773

    Patel is featured in today's Telegraph about the Chagos Islands:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/01/19/priti-patel-interview/
    And what is the Israeli position on this?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    MaxPB said:

    I think the Tories need to find their version of Pierre Polievre to be really successful. I've watched a few of his videos and the way he explains complicated concepts to voters is brilliant and the way he's able to link it back to poor government policy is deadly.

    I don't know who that person is or if they're even an MP. If Kemi wants to succeed she could do a lot worse than to take lessons from him and straight up copy the style.

    Poilievre has the advantage though his party has lost 3 consecutive general elections and been in opposition for nearly 10 years, so he has 'time for a change' behind him
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,507
    @Benpointer

    COMPETITION
    (and hat tip to the poster, I forget who, whose template I copied my answers into)

    Highest share of the vote in 2025 with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll for each of Lab, Con, LD, Reform.

    Lab: 35 Con: 31 LD: 17 Ref: 29

    Lowest share of the vote in 2025 with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll for each of Lab, Con, LD, Reform.

    Lab: 20 Con: 18 LD: 9 Ref: 18

    Number of Reform MPs on 31/12/2025.

    7

    Number of Tory MP defectors to Reform in 2025.

    2

    Number of Westminster by-elections held in 2025.

    4

    Number of ministers to leave the Westminster cabinet during 2025.

    3

    Number of seats won by the AfD in the 2025 German Federal Election.

    130

    UK CPI figure for November 2025 (Nov 2024 = 2.6%).

    2.6%

    UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2025 (Year to Nov 2024 = £113.2bn).

    £100bn

    UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2025 (Oct 23 to Oct 24 = 1.3%).

    1.5%

    US growth annualised rate in Q3 2025 (Q3 2024 = 3.1%).

    2.3%

    EU growth Q3 2024 to Q3 2025 (2024 = 1.0%).

    1.5%

    USD/Ruble exchange rate at London FOREX close on 31/12/2025 (31/12/2024 = 114 USD/RUB).

    $1 = 135 Rubles

    The result of the 2025-2026 Ashes series (2023 series: Drawn 2–2).

    Aus 3 Eng 1
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    While the targeting at the GE was, of course, very successful, you must be concerned that the LDs have failed to progress as Labour support has declined?
    Labour supporters leaving the party are heading left to the Greens and the Gaza parties. Or going to Reform.

    Not sure that the Lib Dens are fishing in either pool.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    edited January 19
    DavidL said:

    Sounds pretty ideal from my perspective. Bit like the Tories under Cameron/Osborne. Socially liberal, fiscally conservative. Oh, those were the days. I frankly wonder if I will ever vote with any enthusiasm again.
    Problem is socially liberal and fiscally conservative is normally a pretty niche position, hence Clegg's LDs got just 8% here in 2015 and the FDP are now polling at less than 5% on average and their highest ever voteshare was 15% in the 2009 German election.

    Macron has probably been the most electorally successful national leader as an economic and social liberal but even he started off as Finance Minister in a Socialist PM's Cabinet and run runoff elections mainly to keep out the far right. Yet now finds his party squeezed between Melenchon's party to his left and Le Pen's party to his right
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559
    kle4 said:

    Canadian commentators have done so, though ive seen at least one anti Trudeau legal commentator say its awful but not unlawful.
    That was a reasonable analysis of Boris's 3 day prorogation, until the SC got involved with politics in a doomed and counterproductive attempt to keep the UK in the EU by hook or by crook.

    And this one is what? Three months?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773
    HYUFD said:

    Problem is socially liberal and fiscally conservative is normally a pretty niche position, hence Clegg's LDs got just 8% here in 2015 and the FDP are now polling at less than 5% on average and their highest ever voteshare was 15% in the 2009 German election
    Yeah, my late father always liked to say, "be reasonable, do it my way." But most didn't.

    Under pressure from Reform Badenoch seems to want to pursue the populist route. She may pick up some votes that way from Reform but she risks losing as many such as me.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,787
    that link contains the phrase "human quantitative easing". I am so stealing that.

    (good read btw: thank you)

This discussion has been closed.