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Fewer than one in ten people think Badenoch would make the best PM – politicalbetting.com
Fewer than one in ten people think Badenoch would make the best PM – politicalbetting.com
Whilst there is a strong incumbency bias in best PM polling it is notable when a PM doesn’t consistently lead in this metric but what I find notable in this polling that Kemi Badenoch is a rounding error away from being fourth in what normally has been a two horse race for decades.
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Should've been Hunt. Cleverly would've been better of those who stood. Farcical his own supporters fell for Jenrick's nonsense.
I’d exclude Farage from the analysis - haven’t looked at the detail but suspect that they are all Reform loyalists.
Kemi has struggled with air time - perhaps a weakness - but I don’t think anyone could break the Farage love in with the media at the moment. Mostly people are just saying “don’t know”.
It’s Starmer being in second place that is the interesting finding here
I mean, a capable cabinet minister, albeit with some unfortunate booboos over the Post Office, an effective campaigner, a decent track record outside politics, taking over a party at a nadir and revitalising it.
That rating's really not fair on Ed Davey.
(Who did you think I meant?!)
YNWA.
Dave Chappelle doing a 17-minute opening monologue on SNL. Something for everyone there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57pGarTBJrU
It is now close to impossible to embed Tweets in thread headers.
In the past all you had to do was post a link to the Tweet, now you have to arse around for five mins with embed codes.
And as he makes them all directly or indirectly, he must be the Perfect Twat.
The tories have a lot of problems but their biggest problem, Olukemi, is at least one they can do something about. At this point they might as well let her take the hit for the locals before they fuck her off. She'll be the fifth tory leader that SKS has seen off.
Oh, you mean Ukraine not Panama?
(I make it four, by the way - Johnson, Truss, Sunak are the other three.)
Instead, the Glaswegian grandmother blew out the candles on her pink birthday cake in the green room of the BBC studios after appearing on Newsnight, and the next morning met the post office minister in Whitehall.
“My week has been exciting, unbelievable, unexpected — and just wonderful,” says Brown, who in the past year has become one of the key voices in the sub-postmasters’ campaign for justice. Beaming, she warms her hands on a cup of tea in the kitchen of her son Alastair’s farmhouse in Co Durham while her two grandsons potter around.
After decades feeling ashamed of having lost everything when she handed back the keys to her beloved post office in the northeast of England, Brown is now in the spotlight. As the oldest member of the Justice for Sub-postmasters Alliance, founded by Sir Alan Bates, she is demanding justice — and payouts — for wronged sub-postmasters.
A year after the Post Office scandal came to prominence, thanks to the hit ITV series Mr Bates vs The Post Office, victims are still waiting for their claims to be settled. Sub-postmasters lost thousands of pounds, their jobs and in some cases their homes when the company’s Horizon computer system, rolled out in branches in the early 2000s, proved defective.
Now Brown and hundreds of other sub-postmasters are trapped in an Kafka-esque nightmare. A team of government-funded independent psychologists, forensic accountants and lawyers have been deployed to assess individuals and come up with a “financial redress” figure for them to claim compensation. Yet application forms filled with legal jargon can be filled out only by lawyers. The Department for Business and Trade aims to provide an offer in 40 working days. “The victims are being re-victimised,” says Brown.
At the same time claims are being contested by an “independent panel” in the Department for Business and Trade. Many sub-postmasters, after spending hours filling out forms, have been offered as little as 10 per cent of their total claim amounts. Brown has been offered 29 per cent. Bates, the leader of a group of sub-postmasters who 2019 won a High Court Group Litigation Order (GLO) case against the Post Office, was initially offered 16 per cent of his claim. His second offer was upped to about 30 per cent. He has still not accepted and has forwarded his claim to be reviewed again by Sir Ross Cranston.
“It’s disgusting,” says Brown. “I had nothing to do with the amount that’s on that claim because it’s independently assessed,” she says.
Many of the group have been left feeling as if they are being tested again — and are stuck in a deadlock, where the government is refusing to pay out. And Brown is not getting any younger.
https://www.thetimes.com/article/at-92-ive-been-re-victimised-by-the-post-office-scandal-zscp7kdzt
One thing perhaps we should all remember about Starmer is his remarkable capacity for confounding expectations. It's less than five years since Hartlepool when we were all talking about the imminent Labour leadership election and who would replace him.
I mean, calling Putin a tosser isn't wrong but isn't a great health or career move.
I think he's been written off every week on here since he became Labour leader. Kemi has the same chance of leading the tories into the next GE as do you or I. Outside chance of him getting #6 if the tories pick somebody scandal prone with an ossuary for a closet.
https://x.com/mikeysmith/status/1880585881658249248?s=61
😇
Add this to the indifference about social care (the basic structure of reforms should by now be absolutely clear even if implementation had to wait a year or so) to the dismal list.
And it's not so long ago that Gen Xers and millennials' lack of housing was blamed by Tories on a liking for avocados.
Edit: I have no particuiar opinion on the matter myself. But one can see how it goes down (so to speak) in a society where a Sainsbury or Boots Meal Deal is luxury for many.
The big move in polling is mostly to DK, particularly from Labour. They have not so much switched as gone back to political slumber. It doesn't mean that they are lost to Labour either.
Which is probably just as well as she has nothing to say.
Besides- what we all want really is a leader to solve the nation's chronic problems in a way that doesn't really inconvenience us. Hence Farage's popularity with fans who hear the sizzle but ignore the lack of realistic sausage. Starmer doesn't really have a fandom; even if he ultimately succeeds, I don't see that changing.
Hopefully once the broadcast and print media are over their fixation with trying to make Farage PM, Kemi will get a look in. Remember Starmer was a slow starter and still became PM.
If Badenoch fails, the alternative spectre of Jenrick looms large. On that thought, perhaps Farage isn't so bad after all.
Is the Mirror really capable of that level of irony ? I’ve not read it for donkeys.
https://balthazarlondon.com/menus/
I know, me eating at a French restaurant.
£12.70 is actually quite reasonable for a steak.
SKS has somehow even made you turn shit.
Better than a Big Mac, but why not eat in one of Parliaments multiple subsidised spots?
Ethiopian-Israeli Avera Mengistu and Bedouin Arab Israeli Hisham al-Sayed were seized in 2014 and 2015 respectively after they crossed into Gaza on their own. The Israeli government has said both suffered from mental health issues at the time. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly4j92je1wo
She could take her own sandwiches.
As to £12.70 for a steak - that’s a not absurd price for a takeaway lunch in London now.
I would put myself down as a DK at the moment, as I am not sure who I will vote for, not least because I am unsure where I will be living in 2029. If I'm on the IoW probably Green, if in Leics probably LD, if back in Leicester South probably Shockhat Adam, who is really impressing me as an independent.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/12/12/lunch-breaks-are-for-wimps-says-kemi-badenoch/
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/bundestagswahl/wahlprogramme-gutverdiener-100.html
Shows that the "tax relief" proposals of the AfD and FDP will mostly benefit the rich, other parties benefit the less rich
Eg
It (FDP program) is really lucrative for those with high or top incomes: a single-income couple with two children with an exemplary gross annual income of 180,000 euros would receive around 19,190 if the AfD program were implemented. It would be 11,990 for the FDP and 5,840 euros for the Union. With the SPD program, this family would have 2,200 euros more at their disposal. With the Greens, income would increase by 100 euros, with the BSW it would remain unchanged. Only the Left's program would reduce income by around 800 euros.
So much for the AfD being against the elites!
He comes from a party that hasn't produced prime ministers for a hundred years however.
A single-income couple with two children and a gross income of 40,000 euros would be better off financially if the election programs of the Left Party (plus 6,150 euros/year), the BSW (plus 1,010 euros), the Greens (plus 870 euros) or the SPD (plus 860 euros) were implemented. With the Union's program, it would still be 300 euros more per year.If the election programs of the FDP or AfD were implemented, this family would have less money at its disposal, according to the ZEW. For the AfD, it would be 440 euros less per year, and for the FDP, 1,520 euros less.
Remember the popularity in parliament, when they passed primary legislation to declare the SPOs not guilty? Who opposed the motion?
Notably this was a massive slap in the face for the judicial (civil service/courts) system. Strangely, those who claim that criticising the actions of the courts is anarchy, were silent as the courts were overturned.
I found it interesting and ominous.
Anyway, the above account of the invention of a process to stall/reduce the payouts is utterly… familiar and expected.
Read the accounts of the survivors if Aberfan.
Same shit, different arseholes.
Process State making everything into a Big Process.
Starmer has already done his wet fish slap against this sort of thing. But ran away at the first sign of resistance.
I’ll bet they are sizing up a building to house the “SPO Claims Administration” quango. Complete with an executive office decorated with hand made walnut (illegally logged) for the CEO who will be on 6 figures.
Its not as bad as making up bad things about politician X when they have done loads of bad things for real, but its not that far off.
Its more than someone would spend getting Greggs for lunch daily, but not so much more its shocking profligacy for an average joe. And left to implication shows it as not very effective, the way it was written the author apparently thought it was bad justvin isolation.
The Attorney-General’s speech to Chatham House, back in July, shows a man with a staggeringly naive approach to international relations. Bringing a knife to a gunfight comes to mind.
The world’s strongest powers are just not interested in this type of blather.
It’s like an envoy from some Greek city state delivering a lengthy oration to a Roman general - whose reply is “Surrender, or I burn your city to the ground.”
https://youtu.be/tksGdDNk6zI?si=C34Q8a-jqxXzFUY_
Indeed maybe that's the problem, insufficient study of policy development.
And he can grind.
Imagine how much better that part of the world would be if it were pro-masturbation and anti-aggression.
So to speak.
Neither current leader may fit that particular mould, but theres a lot fewer 'normal' MPs than existed historically nonetheless.
But for some people on here the AfD are the good guys.
The fact half of Tory and Reform voters reject a merger between the two so there are still differences between the right of centre parties. Some 2024 Tories would go LD rather than vote Reform and some Reform voters will have come from Labour not the Tories and also want to be a distinctive populist right party
Trump will bring resore TikTok. He wants another servile Social Media alogarithm.
The only European party with what I’d describe as full on Thatcherite “neoliberal” policies. Forget orange book, more like a Tory party run by 1990s vintage John Redwood and Peter Lilley but with more socially liberal views. It’s a brave position to be in these days.
The furore about her blew up as Musk started tweeting. She hadn't a clue because she doesn't have Twitter any more - she had to be told. There's the winning strategy - don't look up...
“More wank, less tank”
The Tories have lost touch with what they stand for. Instead of being the party of small business they became the party of fuck business. Instead of being the party of the Union they became the party of partitioning off NI. Instead of being the party of fiscal prudence and low taxes they vastly increased both the national debt and taxes, and managed to leave us broke for good measure.
For a long time, Tory leaders would look fondly back onto Thatcher and say "I am she". Like corrupted Caesars in Rome, they say it but have long forgotten what it is they are supposed to be replicating. Take Kemi away and replace her, and they'll get another idiot. We know that actual Tories still exist, but the party has long since stopped voting for them.
This is why they are being replaced by Reform. Hate him or despise him, Farage and his band of fukers have honed the message to cut through not just to the formerly Tory faithful but to the young and dispossessed as well. They *sound* like radical Tories. The actual Tories can't out radical them, and we can all see that they don't actually believe it.
That may not in itself be a bad thing, there's always been many lawyers and doctors as people respect those and think they make good MPs (and i guess they find it easier to find the time to do the job for some reason) but id be very surpised if you can find that more average professions havecnot declined.
So a backbencher was primed to get him on expenses. The slight problem was that the CDS was the kind of chap who took the heads of other armies to Aske (Pizza and Pasta chain on the level of Pizza Express).
So he was literally sharing a bottle of the £9.99 Shiraz with the head of the French Army…
Further, said backbench MP turned out to have a taste for rather finer food. On expenses.
The possibility of Starmer taking matters into his own hands with a big dramatic gesture also seems thin.
Plus wreckers in the current government by vetoing badly needed increased borrowing.
https://x.com/Gray_Mackenzie/status/1880764999066661053
Wonder if they will consider our recent decision on the matter - sometimes courts consider cases in other similar legal jurisdictions...
Politicians and billionaires for that matter just create opportunity to look as foolish as the rest if us if they spend time on social media.
Especially if they like a drink or Ketamin.