Sleazy does it – politicalbetting.com

Pagan2 · January 17

DavidL said:

viewcode said:
Because we are so immersed in neoliberalism and have forgotten what is possible, here is a 17min video telling you why unions are a good idea:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHOGRhBkWOE
My niece parted company with a marketing firm a few months ago. The source of the dispute seemed to be that her employer wanted her to wear makeup to work. She (a pretty girl, it must be said) was reluctant.

Her mother, who has only ever worked in the public sector, said she should go to her union. Her daughter was baffled. She’d never actually come across a union in any of her employment.

In 40 odd years of working in the law I have never come across a Union either ( other than as a source of business, almost exclusively in the public sector).

With the collapse of large organised labour employers I wonder how many have.

I have in the 80's when they objected to a payrise and got it cancelled for us

Roger · January 17

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Another day another freebie !!!

https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1880234812784406950?t=wvBinKbCpYM_9hT4YQnoQQ&s=19
This sort of thing brings anti-corruption efforts into disrepute. What is it Sadiq is supposed to have done in return for Taylor Swift tickets? What about everyone else on freebies at the concerts?

On the one hand, the rich can buy their own bloody tickets, but stop this endless crying wolf about trivia.

You have hit the nail on the head as you so often do. Many of the rest remind me of several scenes in Lars Von Trier's film 'The Idiots'

pigeon · January 17

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.

The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?

rcs1000 · January 17

Cookie said:

Roger said:

Cookie said:

Roger said:

RobD said:
.
Roger said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Strangers bar to shut on Monday after alleged spiking
You're not sleeping with Guido are you? You used to be a serious poster albeit a dyed in the wool Tory one
Huh? The story has been reported in several outlets. Don’t you believe it?
Of course I believe it. It's trivial enough to be true.

I'm simply amazed at the nonsense people are interested in.
Is it your expectation that the allegation is spurious?
Yes and completely overblown.

I think the Taylor Swift tickets are much more interesting. Equally trivial but at least it's funny
Spurious (i.e. probably didn't happen) or overblown (i.e. a trivial story)?
My understanding is that the proportion of spiking allegations which are spurious (i.e. not actually spiking) is somewhere between 30 and 99 percent. But I know relatively little about it.

Blood tests from people who believe themselves to have been rohypnoled show less than 2% actually were.

rcs1000 · January 17

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.

9.99999%

The holdout is @Roger.

HYUFD · January 17

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?

Farage got 31% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%

Gardenwalker · January 17

I don’t think Starmer has an economic thought in his head.

Reeves obviously does, since despite the misogynistic criticism of her CV, she was a trained economist, and her Maes speech of 2023 was highly credible.

However neither seem to “do” retail politics, and Reeves gives off rather ideological fumes which suggest she is happiest fighting class warfare.

Cookie · January 17

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

Burgessian said:
Just had really interesting feedback (albeit indirect) from someone immensely experienced and senior in world of finance/business/govt and by no means anti-Labour.

Extremely depressed. Starmer and Reeves just don't get it at all. And the budget measures on NI and and workers' rights having a disastrous effect on businesses and their attitude to employing new staff.

I had kinda thought that Starmer was at least a grown-up in the room. Well, he may be in chambers, but apparently not at all in the world outside of that. Very sobering.
He is a grown up. He just doesn't know the subject and so is being dominated by the Treasury. He also (foolishly) promised loads more money for services and simultaneously ruled out tax rises across most of the board, leaving employers' NI as one of the few areas where meaningful money could be raised.
I think also Starmer is a better politician than people give him credit for. He knows people prefer tax rises to fall on their employers rather than directly on themselves, given the tax rises are unavoidable. It may not make economic sense but it makes political sense, and that is what he cares about

Over a time period of 18 months or more, a tax on emoloyers has an equal effect om employees to a tax on employees. They just adjust what they pay workers downwards to compensate.

FF43 · January 17

david_herdson said:

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

Burgessian said:
Just had really interesting feedback (albeit indirect) from someone immensely experienced and senior in world of finance/business/govt and by no means anti-Labour.

Extremely depressed. Starmer and Reeves just don't get it at all. And the budget measures on NI and and workers' rights having a disastrous effect on businesses and their attitude to employing new staff.

I had kinda thought that Starmer was at least a grown-up in the room. Well, he may be in chambers, but apparently not at all in the world outside of that. Very sobering.
He is a grown up. He just doesn't know the subject and so is being dominated by the Treasury. He also (foolishly) promised loads more money for services and simultaneously ruled out tax rises across most of the board, leaving employers' NI as one of the few areas where meaningful money could be raised.
I think also Starmer is a better politician than people give him credit for. He knows people prefer tax rises to fall on their employers rather than directly on themselves, given the tax rises are unavoidable. It may not make economic sense but it makes political sense, and that is what he cares about
Across five years (and sometimes much less), what makes economic sense and what makes political sense have a tendency to converge. They certainly can't be kept apart indefinitely.

Yes and No I think. Why did people vote Trump thinking he was better for the economy? They only have to look at the records.

Leon · January 17

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%

Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28

HYUFD · January 17

Burgessian said:

david_herdson said:

TimS said:

numbertwelve said:

TimS said:

Andy_JS said:
"John Curtice
Britain’s politics is fragmenting – and it’s looking like Reform is here to stay
One in six of those who still voted Conservative in July have now switched over to Nigel Farage’s insurgent party"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01/16/britain-politics-fragmenting-reform-here-to-stay/
There are still formidable electoral obstacles standing between Reform and becoming the second party. They're still behind the Tories in most polls and have hardly been setting the world of council byelections alight.

Nevertheless, now is their chance.
Hmm.. interested in your point re the by-elections. My gut feel is that they’ve done rather well, no? But willing to be told otherwise by the data.
They have been making big gains in vote share in some places where they stand (like in the Cotswolds last night) but are still only standing in a small minority of seats and haven't won many. Their stats give the impression of being a reasonably successful minor party, like the Greens in the last parliament, but not a party knocking on the door of the conservatives.
I think they're standing in most local by-elections at the moment? Not all but I'd guess over 80% (that said, Labour missed one last week).

They're doing better than the Greens now or last parliament. Since the last May round of elections, they've gained 8 seats. That's not a huge number but then they've only been in the 20s for a few months.

For context, in that time:
- the Tories have defended 47 (held 30, lost 17) and gained 38;
- Labour has defended 133 (held 96, lost 37), and gained 13;
- the Lib Dems have defended 41 (held 28, lost 13) and gained 12;
- the Greens have defended 7 (held 5, lost 2), and gained 6.

So not yet a big breakthrough at that level but then council by-elections are not Reform's natural habitat. They don't have the activist experience or data, so lack ground game, which is crucial in these contests (because other parties will have them to concentrate in a way they won't in the normal May rounds). They also tend to focus on national rather than local issues, which again plays against them in these elections.
Makes them vulnerable to boom and bust, of course. They are booming at the moment and may well continue to do so, and may make it through to the Welsh and Scottish elections and gain a haul there through PR, but ultimately FPTP is unforgiving.

Tories not doomed but Kemi really will need to look considered and credible to the general public sooner or later, or she could be in trouble. A Cleverly/Tugendhat combo could look attractive in time if the Tories pivot to the LibDem threat and regaining seats in southern England.

Kemi's problem as I said at the time is while she can hold most 2024 Tory voters, she is not centrist enough for Labour and LD voters who preferred Cleverly or Tugendhat and she is not populist right enough for Reform voters either who preferred Jenrick

Gardenwalker · January 17

If Labour:

Turned north sea oil back on
Laid out a credible plan to reform planning and kick start housing builds
Agreed new runways for Heathrow and Gatwick
Suggested that the “closest partnership” with the single market was settled strategy
Announced a reduction in corporate tax
Designated the M6 for automated driving trials.

The economy would actually soar.

Roger · January 17

FF43 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Nigelb said:

FF43 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

FF43 said:

williamglenn said:
I’ve blown my daily photo allowance, so if you want to see Liz Truss in a MAGA hat, you’ll have to click the link:

https://x.com/trussliz/status/1880242828317716884
I'll post it with my allowance. There's a something degraded and sad about this photo. Liz Truss only one step away from rifling rubbish bins and people saying "You know, she used to be prime minister once."

Not a patch on her ministerial photoshoots of old. Presumably she doesn't now have a government-paid photographer to spend six hours a day doing them.
Truss' published images have always been preposterous but at least then she had a meaningful job. In this case the empty business district adds a layer of desperation to a washed up foreign politician in a MAGA cap with nowhere to go.
It's the political equivalent of washed up TV stars touring the convention circuit.
One of the more preposterous aspects of PB's unreasoning hatred of Truss and all her works is when it takes on this 'more-in-sorrow-than-in-anger' tone where a collection of middle-aged men try to convince themselves that Truss must spend her most of her days weeping in a darkened corner because she departed from the true centrist religion, like a fallen woman of old. She looks fine to me. She's made a crap load of money, gets retweeted by Elon Musk, and the ongoing collapse of the Starmer economic agenda is causing a revision of the minibudget in her favour - at least on much of the right.
Liz Truss shows no sign of weeping in a darkened corner - the complete opposite in fact - and I for one wouldn't want or expect her to do so.

As she decides what photos to issue on her own feed, she opens them to comment. It is certainly a remarkable image.

You're too kind. One of the remaining pleasures of PB is watching Lucky Guy clinging onto to thoughts of Liz Truss and what might have been.....

Big_G_NorthWales · January 17

Malmesbury said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Roger said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Strangers bar to shut on Monday after alleged spiking
You're not sleeping with Guido are you? You used to be a serious poster albeit a dyed in the wool Tory one
What are you on about

Sky reporting this story - are you saying it is untrue

Maybe think before you knee jerk your reactions

https://news.sky.com/story/parliament-bar-to-close-following-alleged-spiking-incident-13290840
Roger has an eclectic reaction to a certain kind of news story.

Even the Mirror has it

https://x.com/MirrorBreaking_/status/1880268636763615238?t=IT-w_mfb-p6U_RfSnnFF0w&s=19

HYUFD · January 17

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28

Though that also requires Reform and the Tories to eat further into the Labour vote, as while they have enough seats on current polls for a hung parliament they don't yet have enough seats for a Tory and Reform government

Big_G_NorthWales · January 17

Gardenwalker said:
If Labour:

Turned north sea oil back on
Laid out a credible plan to reform planning and kick start housing builds
Agreed new runways for Heathrow and Gatwick
Suggested that the “closest partnership” with the single market was settled strategy
Announced a reduction in corporate tax
Designated the M6 for automated driving trials.

The economy would actually soar.

Agreed

Cookie · January 17

Pagan2 said:

DavidL said:

viewcode said:
Because we are so immersed in neoliberalism and have forgotten what is possible, here is a 17min video telling you why unions are a good idea:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHOGRhBkWOE
My niece parted company with a marketing firm a few months ago. The source of the dispute seemed to be that her employer wanted her to wear makeup to work. She (a pretty girl, it must be said) was reluctant.

Her mother, who has only ever worked in the public sector, said she should go to her union. Her daughter was baffled. She’d never actually come across a union in any of her employment.

In 40 odd years of working in the law I have never come across a Union either ( other than as a source of business, almost exclusively in the public sector).

With the collapse of large organised labour employers I wonder how many have.
I have in the 80's when they objected to a payrise and got it cancelled for us

Haha - I'm in that situation right now! I'm public sector so pay rises are dependent on what the employer agrees with the union. The union have recently successfully negotiated an offer of a 2.5% pay rise up to an agreed 2.3%. Pricks.

dixiedean · January 17

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28

If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?

Nigelb · January 17

.

Malmesbury said:

RobD said:

Roger said:

RobD said:
.
Roger said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Strangers bar to shut on Monday after alleged spiking
You're not sleeping with Guido are you? You used to be a serious poster albeit a dyed in the wool Tory one
Huh? The story has been reported in several outlets. Don’t you believe it?
Of course I believe it. It's trivial enough to be true.

I'm simply amazed at the nonsense people are interested in.
Someone having their drink spiked in a bar in parliament is a nonsense story?
Closing a bar when this kind of appalling crime happens indicates that multiple instances have happened and that the management of the bar has really shit about dealing with the problem.

Parliament is exempt from licensing regulations - but the current Speaker seems to take his duty of care towards MPs and parliamentary staff reasonably seriously.

HYUFD · January 17

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:
That Truss ever even became a Cabinet Minister reflects very poorly on David Cameron.
Nah, she's another one radicalised by Brexit.
Although she was always a bit odd: a career in search of a cause.
She should have stuck with her republicanism.

Truss was simply too libertarian to be PM or hold a major office of state concerned with domestic policy, given she basically thinks the government shouldn't exist or takes the Norquist line it should be so small you could fit it in a bathtub. Otherwise Truss takes the line people should have near complete freedom in their social lives beyond violence to others and the ability to earn as much money as they can while paying virtually no taxes at all.

Daveyboy1961 · January 17

rcs1000 said:

Cookie said:

Roger said:

Cookie said:

Roger said:

RobD said:
.
Roger said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Strangers bar to shut on Monday after alleged spiking
You're not sleeping with Guido are you? You used to be a serious poster albeit a dyed in the wool Tory one
Huh? The story has been reported in several outlets. Don’t you believe it?
Of course I believe it. It's trivial enough to be true.

I'm simply amazed at the nonsense people are interested in.
Is it your expectation that the allegation is spurious?
Yes and completely overblown.

I think the Taylor Swift tickets are much more interesting. Equally trivial but at least it's funny
Spurious (i.e. probably didn't happen) or overblown (i.e. a trivial story)?
My understanding is that the proportion of spiking allegations which are spurious (i.e. not actually spiking) is somewhere between 30 and 99 percent. But I know relatively little about it.
Blood tests from people who believe themselves to have been rohypnoled show less than 2% actually were.

I remember hearing that the most prolific date rape drug was alcohol.

Pagan2 · January 17

Cookie said:

Pagan2 said:

DavidL said:

viewcode said:
Because we are so immersed in neoliberalism and have forgotten what is possible, here is a 17min video telling you why unions are a good idea:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHOGRhBkWOE
My niece parted company with a marketing firm a few months ago. The source of the dispute seemed to be that her employer wanted her to wear makeup to work. She (a pretty girl, it must be said) was reluctant.

Her mother, who has only ever worked in the public sector, said she should go to her union. Her daughter was baffled. She’d never actually come across a union in any of her employment.

In 40 odd years of working in the law I have never come across a Union either ( other than as a source of business, almost exclusively in the public sector).

With the collapse of large organised labour employers I wonder how many have.
I have in the 80's when they objected to a payrise and got it cancelled for us
Haha - I'm in that situation right now! I'm public sector so pay rises are dependent on what the employer agrees with the union. The union have recently successfully negotiated an offer of a 2.5% pay rise up to an agreed 2.3%. Pricks.

In my case it was two different types of workers, manual and lab staff. The manual workers union objected to lab staff getting a pay rise above manual workers even though they were covered by two different unions at the time and they were have trouble recruiting lab staff where as manual workers were plentiful

Nigelb · January 17

Special counsel bill on investigating Yoon's insurrection passed the National Assembly on January 17 night with 188-86 out of 274 attending. People Power Party lawmakers attended the vote and largely opposed.
https://x.com/yejinjgim/status/1880288316542828970

pigeon · January 17

Cookie said:

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

Burgessian said:
Just had really interesting feedback (albeit indirect) from someone immensely experienced and senior in world of finance/business/govt and by no means anti-Labour.

Extremely depressed. Starmer and Reeves just don't get it at all. And the budget measures on NI and and workers' rights having a disastrous effect on businesses and their attitude to employing new staff.

I had kinda thought that Starmer was at least a grown-up in the room. Well, he may be in chambers, but apparently not at all in the world outside of that. Very sobering.
He is a grown up. He just doesn't know the subject and so is being dominated by the Treasury. He also (foolishly) promised loads more money for services and simultaneously ruled out tax rises across most of the board, leaving employers' NI as one of the few areas where meaningful money could be raised.
I think also Starmer is a better politician than people give him credit for. He knows people prefer tax rises to fall on their employers rather than directly on themselves, given the tax rises are unavoidable. It may not make economic sense but it makes political sense, and that is what he cares about
Over a time period of 18 months or more, a tax on emoloyers has an equal effect om employees to a tax on employees. They just adjust what they pay workers downwards to compensate.

Exactly. Well, that or to sack people to save money.

Wage restraint or firings. It's bleeding obvious that the centrepiece of the last budget was yet another trip to the well of draining workers' incomes. It's the only answer any of these politicians seems capable of coming up with.

FF43 · January 17

Cookie said:

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

Burgessian said:
Just had really interesting feedback (albeit indirect) from someone immensely experienced and senior in world of finance/business/govt and by no means anti-Labour.

Extremely depressed. Starmer and Reeves just don't get it at all. And the budget measures on NI and and workers' rights having a disastrous effect on businesses and their attitude to employing new staff.

I had kinda thought that Starmer was at least a grown-up in the room. Well, he may be in chambers, but apparently not at all in the world outside of that. Very sobering.
He is a grown up. He just doesn't know the subject and so is being dominated by the Treasury. He also (foolishly) promised loads more money for services and simultaneously ruled out tax rises across most of the board, leaving employers' NI as one of the few areas where meaningful money could be raised.
I think also Starmer is a better politician than people give him credit for. He knows people prefer tax rises to fall on their employers rather than directly on themselves, given the tax rises are unavoidable. It may not make economic sense but it makes political sense, and that is what he cares about
Over a time period of 18 months or more, a tax on emoloyers has an equal effect om employees to a tax on employees. They just adjust what they pay workers downwards to compensate.

Yes, but not straight away and not totally. The measures hurt employers precisely because they they are paying their workers more than they otherwise would. On the whole, their workers prefer that.

This all assumes the tax rises are necessary

HYUFD · January 17

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?

About 10 with FPTP at best, with PR though even at 10% of the vote the Tories could still win 65 seats

rcs1000 · January 17

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28

So long as your opponents have -70% approval, you're laughing

Pagan2 · January 17

pigeon said:

Cookie said:

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

Burgessian said:
Just had really interesting feedback (albeit indirect) from someone immensely experienced and senior in world of finance/business/govt and by no means anti-Labour.

Extremely depressed. Starmer and Reeves just don't get it at all. And the budget measures on NI and and workers' rights having a disastrous effect on businesses and their attitude to employing new staff.

I had kinda thought that Starmer was at least a grown-up in the room. Well, he may be in chambers, but apparently not at all in the world outside of that. Very sobering.
He is a grown up. He just doesn't know the subject and so is being dominated by the Treasury. He also (foolishly) promised loads more money for services and simultaneously ruled out tax rises across most of the board, leaving employers' NI as one of the few areas where meaningful money could be raised.
I think also Starmer is a better politician than people give him credit for. He knows people prefer tax rises to fall on their employers rather than directly on themselves, given the tax rises are unavoidable. It may not make economic sense but it makes political sense, and that is what he cares about
Over a time period of 18 months or more, a tax on emoloyers has an equal effect om employees to a tax on employees. They just adjust what they pay workers downwards to compensate.
Exactly. Well, that or to sack people to save money.

Wage restraint or firings. It's bleeding obvious that the centrepiece of the last budget was yet another trip to the well of draining workers' incomes. It's the only answer any of these politicians seems capable of coming up with.

My payrise this year have already been told is downgraded due to the extra ni, going to get 1%

Leon · January 17

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?

Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers

But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like

REF: 32
LAB: 24
CON: 24
LD: 10
GN: 7

Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?

Pagan2 · January 17

FF43 said:

Cookie said:

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

Burgessian said:
Just had really interesting feedback (albeit indirect) from someone immensely experienced and senior in world of finance/business/govt and by no means anti-Labour.

Extremely depressed. Starmer and Reeves just don't get it at all. And the budget measures on NI and and workers' rights having a disastrous effect on businesses and their attitude to employing new staff.

I had kinda thought that Starmer was at least a grown-up in the room. Well, he may be in chambers, but apparently not at all in the world outside of that. Very sobering.
He is a grown up. He just doesn't know the subject and so is being dominated by the Treasury. He also (foolishly) promised loads more money for services and simultaneously ruled out tax rises across most of the board, leaving employers' NI as one of the few areas where meaningful money could be raised.
I think also Starmer is a better politician than people give him credit for. He knows people prefer tax rises to fall on their employers rather than directly on themselves, given the tax rises are unavoidable. It may not make economic sense but it makes political sense, and that is what he cares about
Over a time period of 18 months or more, a tax on emoloyers has an equal effect om employees to a tax on employees. They just adjust what they pay workers downwards to compensate.
Yes, but not straight away and not totally. The measures hurt employers precisely because they they are paying their workers more than they otherwise would. On the whole, their workers prefer that.

This all assumes the tax rises are necessary

How exactly do you think employers are paying staff more? They are paying more to employ them but its not going into employees pockets but thieving reeves

Cookie · January 17

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers

But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like

REF: 32
LAB: 24
CON: 24
LD: 10
GN: 7

Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?

Baxter reckons more than 31% gives Reform a majority.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_reform_20241231.html

Foss · January 17

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers

But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like

REF: 32
LAB: 24
CON: 24
LD: 10
GN: 7

Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?

Or Ref minority and an autumn rerun.

Mexicanpete · January 17

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain

Is this a different poll from the Findoutnow poll posted on here yesterday with the subheader of "Labour drop to third"? Can we add both postings to our average?

Nigelb · January 17

Regarding the US drug pricing discussion we briefly indulged in on the last thread, nothing Trump does is like to be as consequential as straightforward competition from Chinese bio/pharma over the next decade.

Tariffs, or not.

‘The bar has risen’: China’s biotech gains push US companies to adapt
A fast-improving pipeline of drugs invented in China is attracting pharma dealmakers, putting pressure on U.S. biotechs and the VC firms that back them.
https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/biotech-us-china-competition-drug-deals/737543/

Leon · January 17

Cookie said:

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers

But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like

REF: 32
LAB: 24
CON: 24
LD: 10
GN: 7

Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?
Baxter reckons more than 31% gives Reform a majority.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_reform_20241231.html

I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives

Sean_F · January 17

DavidL said:

Carnyx said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

rottenborough said:

Nigelb said:
From an interesting thread on a new book likely to appeal to some PB historians.

...My book uses the writings and perspectives of enlisted men in order to show that eighteenth-century battles were a negotiation of authority between officers and their men. The officers wanted the men to fight like they do in the movies. The men weren't having it...
https://x.com/KKriegeBlog/status/1879918622447223077
Oh, that looks interesting. Can I justify yet another history book in the house?
It was a time when tactics were seriously not keeping up with the efficacy of firearms. Fighting a battle by standing in nice straight lines in brightly coloured coats was increasingly suicidal. It does not surprise me at all that it would be a subject of debate.
https://x.com/KKriegeBlog/status/1879918637437555154
...When the Marquis de Montcalm (Plains of Abraham fame) sees infantry fighting from cover at Carillon in 1758, he doesn't say: wow, this is unique to North America!
Instead, he says, "the firefight on both sides was like the Battle of Parma" (in North Italy, in 1734). The War of Polish Succession and the tactical developments it brought to infantry warfare, need to be reintroduced to the overall story of infantry tactics...
I'm reminded of the British Army in North America. Thought some of the locals were unsporting - hid behind trees, didn't wear bright colours, used rifles, actually aimed them ...

Edit: Washington did have regular units. And once the Brits cottoned on, and started developiong light companies with green jackets and rifles ...
What is astonishing in light of that experience was the tactics of both sides in the American civil war. No wonder the casualties were so appalling.

It’s extraordinary how lessons learned in war, get quickly forgotten, when they clash with prejudice.

The French belatedly worked out how to defeat the English, in the first phase of the Hundred Years War. Avoid pitched battles against thousands of longbowmen, fortify their towns, besiege English strongholds, bribe Gascon lords to switch sides, and raid English shipping. By 1377, all the English conquests were lost, save Calais.

Then, they went and got themselves slaughtered at Agincourt, and Vernueil, because overbred idiots refused to take orders from social inferiors.

The British developed light companies, in the Napoleonic Wars, and various colonial conflicts. Then, they got their infantry slaughtered fighting the Boers, because they refused to accept that forming up in ordered ranks against the world’s best marksmen, armed with the world’s best rifles, was suicidal.

France and Germany sent military observers to the Anglo-Boer war of 1899-1902. From which, they deduced that sending masses of infantry in full dress uniform, in 1914, against enemy riflemen and machine gunners was a sure path to victory.

Luckyguy1983 · January 17

Roger said:

FF43 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Nigelb said:

FF43 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

FF43 said:

williamglenn said:
I’ve blown my daily photo allowance, so if you want to see Liz Truss in a MAGA hat, you’ll have to click the link:

https://x.com/trussliz/status/1880242828317716884
I'll post it with my allowance. There's a something degraded and sad about this photo. Liz Truss only one step away from rifling rubbish bins and people saying "You know, she used to be prime minister once."

Not a patch on her ministerial photoshoots of old. Presumably she doesn't now have a government-paid photographer to spend six hours a day doing them.
Truss' published images have always been preposterous but at least then she had a meaningful job. In this case the empty business district adds a layer of desperation to a washed up foreign politician in a MAGA cap with nowhere to go.
It's the political equivalent of washed up TV stars touring the convention circuit.
One of the more preposterous aspects of PB's unreasoning hatred of Truss and all her works is when it takes on this 'more-in-sorrow-than-in-anger' tone where a collection of middle-aged men try to convince themselves that Truss must spend her most of her days weeping in a darkened corner because she departed from the true centrist religion, like a fallen woman of old. She looks fine to me. She's made a crap load of money, gets retweeted by Elon Musk, and the ongoing collapse of the Starmer economic agenda is causing a revision of the minibudget in her favour - at least on much of the right.
Liz Truss shows no sign of weeping in a darkened corner - the complete opposite in fact - and I for one wouldn't want or expect her to do so.

As she decides what photos to issue on her own feed, she opens them to comment. It is certainly a remarkable image.
You're too kind. One of the remaining pleasures of PB is watching Lucky Guy clinging onto to thoughts of Liz Truss and what might have been.....

On the contrary, it's more often than not her detractors who bring her up - often into totally unrelated topics.

I think it's a pity we didn't see the minibudget implemented, but the current implosion of the left in Government wouldn't have happened then, so things are probably taking place as they should.

noneoftheabove · January 17

FF43 said:

Cookie said:

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

Burgessian said:
Just had really interesting feedback (albeit indirect) from someone immensely experienced and senior in world of finance/business/govt and by no means anti-Labour.

Extremely depressed. Starmer and Reeves just don't get it at all. And the budget measures on NI and and workers' rights having a disastrous effect on businesses and their attitude to employing new staff.

I had kinda thought that Starmer was at least a grown-up in the room. Well, he may be in chambers, but apparently not at all in the world outside of that. Very sobering.
He is a grown up. He just doesn't know the subject and so is being dominated by the Treasury. He also (foolishly) promised loads more money for services and simultaneously ruled out tax rises across most of the board, leaving employers' NI as one of the few areas where meaningful money could be raised.
I think also Starmer is a better politician than people give him credit for. He knows people prefer tax rises to fall on their employers rather than directly on themselves, given the tax rises are unavoidable. It may not make economic sense but it makes political sense, and that is what he cares about
Over a time period of 18 months or more, a tax on emoloyers has an equal effect om employees to a tax on employees. They just adjust what they pay workers downwards to compensate.
Yes, but not straight away and not totally. The measures hurt employers precisely because they they are paying their workers more than they otherwise would. On the whole, their workers prefer that.

This all assumes the tax rises are necessary

Income tax rise treats public sector, small business, corporate jobs and passive income all the same. Employers NI is different for each of those. They are not the same.

Mexicanpete · January 17

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Roger said:

RobD said:
.
Roger said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Strangers bar to shut on Monday after alleged spiking
You're not sleeping with Guido are you? You used to be a serious poster albeit a dyed in the wool Tory one
Huh? The story has been reported in several outlets. Don’t you believe it?
Of course I believe it. It's trivial enough to be true.

I'm simply amazed at the nonsense people are interested in.
Do you seriously think spiking a drink is nonsense ?

And even more so in Parliament

You do have a nose for Labour sleaze scandals. How many Labour by elections are imminent?

HYUFD · January 17

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers

But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like

REF: 32
LAB: 24
CON: 24
LD: 10
GN: 7

Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?
Baxter reckons more than 31% gives Reform a majority.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_reform_20241231.html
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives

For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%

Mexicanpete · January 17

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers

But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like

REF: 32
LAB: 24
CON: 24
LD: 10
GN: 7

Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?

Wow! That is a stunning opinion poll. Who is the pollster?

rkrkrk · January 17

Apparently 51/10,000 private school students in Edinburgh have switched to state schools in January.
I'm sticking to my prediction that the independent school sector will be just fine.

https://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3lfwhabtli22c

Cookie · January 17

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Roger said:

RobD said:
.
Roger said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Strangers bar to shut on Monday after alleged spiking
You're not sleeping with Guido are you? You used to be a serious poster albeit a dyed in the wool Tory one
Huh? The story has been reported in several outlets. Don’t you believe it?
Of course I believe it. It's trivial enough to be true.

I'm simply amazed at the nonsense people are interested in.
Do you seriously think spiking a drink is nonsense ?

And even more so in Parliament
You do have a nose for Labour sleaze scandals. How many Labour by elections are imminent?

Why is this a Labour scandal by the way?

FF43 · January 17

Pagan2 said:

FF43 said:

Cookie said:

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

Burgessian said:
Just had really interesting feedback (albeit indirect) from someone immensely experienced and senior in world of finance/business/govt and by no means anti-Labour.

Extremely depressed. Starmer and Reeves just don't get it at all. And the budget measures on NI and and workers' rights having a disastrous effect on businesses and their attitude to employing new staff.

I had kinda thought that Starmer was at least a grown-up in the room. Well, he may be in chambers, but apparently not at all in the world outside of that. Very sobering.
He is a grown up. He just doesn't know the subject and so is being dominated by the Treasury. He also (foolishly) promised loads more money for services and simultaneously ruled out tax rises across most of the board, leaving employers' NI as one of the few areas where meaningful money could be raised.
I think also Starmer is a better politician than people give him credit for. He knows people prefer tax rises to fall on their employers rather than directly on themselves, given the tax rises are unavoidable. It may not make economic sense but it makes political sense, and that is what he cares about
Over a time period of 18 months or more, a tax on emoloyers has an equal effect om employees to a tax on employees. They just adjust what they pay workers downwards to compensate.
Yes, but not straight away and not totally. The measures hurt employers precisely because they they are paying their workers more than they otherwise would. On the whole, their workers prefer that.

This all assumes the tax rises are necessary
How exactly do you think employers are paying staff more? They are paying more to employ them but its not going into employees pockets but thieving reeves

I mean an increase in employer NI results in a higher take home wage than a similar increase in employee NI and an immediate cut in take home pay.

Pagan2 · January 17

Cookie said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Roger said:

RobD said:
.
Roger said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Strangers bar to shut on Monday after alleged spiking
You're not sleeping with Guido are you? You used to be a serious poster albeit a dyed in the wool Tory one
Huh? The story has been reported in several outlets. Don’t you believe it?
Of course I believe it. It's trivial enough to be true.

I'm simply amazed at the nonsense people are interested in.
Do you seriously think spiking a drink is nonsense ?

And even more so in Parliament
You do have a nose for Labour sleaze scandals. How many Labour by elections are imminent?
Why is this a Labour scandal by the way?

Because Roger assumes its a labour mp doing it whereas as far as I know no finger has as yet been pointed at a culprit

Mexicanpete · January 17

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers

But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like

REF: 32
LAB: 24
CON: 24
LD: 10
GN: 7

Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?
Baxter reckons more than 31% gives Reform a majority.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_reform_20241231.html
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%

No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.

HYUFD · January 17

Donald Trump's inauguration moved indoors due to 'dangerous' cold

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ceq9917rl18o

Stuartinromford · January 17

HYUFD said:
Donald Trump's inauguration moved indoors due to 'dangerous' cold

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ceq9917rl18o

J D Vance walks sadly into his library and returns the biography of William Henry Harrison to the shelf.

OldKingCole · January 17

HYUFD said:
Donald Trump's inauguration moved indoors due to 'dangerous' cold

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ceq9917rl18o

At least it will be easier to count the crowd!

BartholomewRoberts · January 17

FF43 said:

Pagan2 said:

FF43 said:

Cookie said:

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

Burgessian said:
Just had really interesting feedback (albeit indirect) from someone immensely experienced and senior in world of finance/business/govt and by no means anti-Labour.

Extremely depressed. Starmer and Reeves just don't get it at all. And the budget measures on NI and and workers' rights having a disastrous effect on businesses and their attitude to employing new staff.

I had kinda thought that Starmer was at least a grown-up in the room. Well, he may be in chambers, but apparently not at all in the world outside of that. Very sobering.
He is a grown up. He just doesn't know the subject and so is being dominated by the Treasury. He also (foolishly) promised loads more money for services and simultaneously ruled out tax rises across most of the board, leaving employers' NI as one of the few areas where meaningful money could be raised.
I think also Starmer is a better politician than people give him credit for. He knows people prefer tax rises to fall on their employers rather than directly on themselves, given the tax rises are unavoidable. It may not make economic sense but it makes political sense, and that is what he cares about
Over a time period of 18 months or more, a tax on emoloyers has an equal effect om employees to a tax on employees. They just adjust what they pay workers downwards to compensate.
Yes, but not straight away and not totally. The measures hurt employers precisely because they they are paying their workers more than they otherwise would. On the whole, their workers prefer that.

This all assumes the tax rises are necessary
How exactly do you think employers are paying staff more? They are paying more to employ them but its not going into employees pockets but thieving reeves
I mean an increase in employer NI results in a higher take home wage than a similar increase in employee NI and an immediate cut in take home pay.

Though why are those the only two options?

Both put the entire burden on the employed and leave others to opt out of paying taxes, does that seem sensible to you?

Income tax is a better tax than NI which should be abolished, the broader the tax is spread the less you need to tax to take the same amount.

Northern_Al · January 17

I'm sort of guessing, but I think Reform's progress will be hampered in a GE by a failure to win seats in the big cities. I can't seem them winning more than a small handful of seats in London (73 constituencies), Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow, Sheffield, Leeds, Bristol and so on, even if their national vote is around 30%.

They'll knock it out of the park in Essex, Lincolnshire and Kent, though.

williamglenn · January 17

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers

But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like

REF: 32
LAB: 24
CON: 24
LD: 10
GN: 7

Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?
Baxter reckons more than 31% gives Reform a majority.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_reform_20241231.html
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.

Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.

Leon · January 17

Mexicanpete said:

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers

But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like

REF: 32
LAB: 24
CON: 24
LD: 10
GN: 7

Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?
Wow! That is a stunning opinion poll. Who is the pollster?

It’s by NumbersPluckedFromMyButt, an exciting new Myanmarese pollster that only operates after midnight and a bottle of cheap Aussie red

FF43 · January 17

noneoftheabove said:

FF43 said:

Cookie said:

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

Burgessian said:
Just had really interesting feedback (albeit indirect) from someone immensely experienced and senior in world of finance/business/govt and by no means anti-Labour.

Extremely depressed. Starmer and Reeves just don't get it at all. And the budget measures on NI and and workers' rights having a disastrous effect on businesses and their attitude to employing new staff.

I had kinda thought that Starmer was at least a grown-up in the room. Well, he may be in chambers, but apparently not at all in the world outside of that. Very sobering.
He is a grown up. He just doesn't know the subject and so is being dominated by the Treasury. He also (foolishly) promised loads more money for services and simultaneously ruled out tax rises across most of the board, leaving employers' NI as one of the few areas where meaningful money could be raised.
I think also Starmer is a better politician than people give him credit for. He knows people prefer tax rises to fall on their employers rather than directly on themselves, given the tax rises are unavoidable. It may not make economic sense but it makes political sense, and that is what he cares about
Over a time period of 18 months or more, a tax on emoloyers has an equal effect om employees to a tax on employees. They just adjust what they pay workers downwards to compensate.
Yes, but not straight away and not totally. The measures hurt employers precisely because they they are paying their workers more than they otherwise would. On the whole, their workers prefer that.

This all assumes the tax rises are necessary
Income tax rise treats public sector, small business, corporate jobs and passive income all the same. Employers NI is different for each of those. They are not the same.

The argument against increasing employer NI rather than individual taxes is that it is distorting. This offsets the political advantage to Starmer

HYUFD · January 17

Northern_Al said:
I'm sort of guessing, but I think Reform's progress will be hampered in a GE by a failure to win seats in the big cities. I can't seem them winning more than a small handful of seats in London (73 constituencies), Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow, Sheffield, Leeds, Bristol and so on, even if their national vote is around 30%.

They'll knock it out of the park in Essex, Lincolnshire and Kent, though.

I don't think Reform will win a single seat in any big UK city you name except maybe Dagenham and Hornchurch and Upminster and Romford and Old Bexley and Sidcup in Outer London and at a push Birmingham Northfield and Birmingham Hodge Hill.

They won't win all of Essex either, Kemi will hold NW Essex and Chelmsford likely stays LD even if Reform won most votes nationally, in Kent too Sevenoaks and Tonbridge likely stay Tory regardless, Canterbury Labour and Tunbridge Wells LD even if Reform swept the other seats in both counties and won every seat in Lincolnshire

Stuartinromford · January 17

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers

But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like

REF: 32
LAB: 24
CON: 24
LD: 10
GN: 7

Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?
Baxter reckons more than 31% gives Reform a majority.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_reform_20241231.html
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.

Why would they do that?

Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.

Malmesbury · January 17

Nigelb said:
.
Malmesbury said:

RobD said:

Roger said:

RobD said:
.
Roger said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Strangers bar to shut on Monday after alleged spiking
You're not sleeping with Guido are you? You used to be a serious poster albeit a dyed in the wool Tory one
Huh? The story has been reported in several outlets. Don’t you believe it?
Of course I believe it. It's trivial enough to be true.

I'm simply amazed at the nonsense people are interested in.
Someone having their drink spiked in a bar in parliament is a nonsense story?
Closing a bar when this kind of appalling crime happens indicates that multiple instances have happened and that the management of the bar has really shit about dealing with the problem.
Parliament is exempt from licensing regulations - but the current Speaker seems to take his duty of care towards MPs and parliamentary staff reasonably seriously.

Yes, they are exempt.

I suspect that there is a history of incidents and poor response - which is why the bar has been closed.

There is a further angle to this - in London generally, the licensing authorities have been cracking down on premises that don’t take safeguarding seriously. It would be problematic to give a pass to the MPs own bar…

EPG · January 17

I think people decided they don't like the government so it's sleazy, rather than vice versa.

Foxy · January 17

Gardenwalker said:
If Labour:

Turned north sea oil back on
Laid out a credible plan to reform planning and kick start housing builds
Agreed new runways for Heathrow and Gatwick
Suggested that the “closest partnership” with the single market was settled strategy
Announced a reduction in corporate tax
Designated the M6 for automated driving trials.

The economy would actually soar.

I see the IMF have upgraded our projected growth in 2025 to 1.6% not quite the highest in the G7, but respectable.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/17/imf-upgrades-uk-growth-forecast-and-takes-swipe-at-trump-plans?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

williamglenn · January 17

Stuartinromford said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers

But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like

REF: 32
LAB: 24
CON: 24
LD: 10
GN: 7

Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?
Baxter reckons more than 31% gives Reform a majority.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_reform_20241231.html
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?

Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.

Badenoch or A.N. Other Tory if she’s replaced. My argument is that if Reform turf Labour out across the board in their heartlands then the Tories will be the only viable alternative so will gain by default unless they actively alienate people between now and then.

Gardenwalker · January 17

Foxy said:

Gardenwalker said:
If Labour:

Turned north sea oil back on
Laid out a credible plan to reform planning and kick start housing builds
Agreed new runways for Heathrow and Gatwick
Suggested that the “closest partnership” with the single market was settled strategy
Announced a reduction in corporate tax
Designated the M6 for automated driving trials.

The economy would actually soar.
I see the IMF have upgraded our projected growth in 2025 to 1.6% not quite the highest in the G7, but respectable.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/17/imf-upgrades-uk-growth-forecast-and-takes-swipe-at-trump-plans?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

The UK is likely currently in recession, and you have to deflate that number by population growth.

rottenborough · January 17

HYUFD said:
Donald Trump's inauguration moved indoors due to 'dangerous' cold

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ceq9917rl18o

Pathetic. I thought Trump was bring the 'warrior class' back to Washington?

Foxy · January 17

Gardenwalker said:

Foxy said:

Gardenwalker said:
If Labour:

Turned north sea oil back on
Laid out a credible plan to reform planning and kick start housing builds
Agreed new runways for Heathrow and Gatwick
Suggested that the “closest partnership” with the single market was settled strategy
Announced a reduction in corporate tax
Designated the M6 for automated driving trials.

The economy would actually soar.
I see the IMF have upgraded our projected growth in 2025 to 1.6% not quite the highest in the G7, but respectable.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/17/imf-upgrades-uk-growth-forecast-and-takes-swipe-at-trump-plans?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
The UK is likely currently in recession, and you have to deflate that number by population growth.

Sure, though immigration figures will be a lot lower than the last 2 years under the Tories.

But the IMF agrees that the doom and gloom is being overdone.

Things are never as good or as bad as they seem.

Big_G_NorthWales · January 17

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Roger said:

RobD said:
.
Roger said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Strangers bar to shut on Monday after alleged spiking
You're not sleeping with Guido are you? You used to be a serious poster albeit a dyed in the wool Tory one
Huh? The story has been reported in several outlets. Don’t you believe it?
Of course I believe it. It's trivial enough to be true.

I'm simply amazed at the nonsense people are interested in.
Do you seriously think spiking a drink is nonsense ?

And even more so in Parliament
You do have a nose for Labour sleaze scandals. How many Labour by elections are imminent?

Why do you think it is a Labour scandal

I have never said that or implied that

Another apology please

noneoftheabove · January 17

FF43 said:

noneoftheabove said:

FF43 said:

Cookie said:

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

Burgessian said:
Just had really interesting feedback (albeit indirect) from someone immensely experienced and senior in world of finance/business/govt and by no means anti-Labour.

Extremely depressed. Starmer and Reeves just don't get it at all. And the budget measures on NI and and workers' rights having a disastrous effect on businesses and their attitude to employing new staff.

I had kinda thought that Starmer was at least a grown-up in the room. Well, he may be in chambers, but apparently not at all in the world outside of that. Very sobering.
He is a grown up. He just doesn't know the subject and so is being dominated by the Treasury. He also (foolishly) promised loads more money for services and simultaneously ruled out tax rises across most of the board, leaving employers' NI as one of the few areas where meaningful money could be raised.
I think also Starmer is a better politician than people give him credit for. He knows people prefer tax rises to fall on their employers rather than directly on themselves, given the tax rises are unavoidable. It may not make economic sense but it makes political sense, and that is what he cares about
Over a time period of 18 months or more, a tax on emoloyers has an equal effect om employees to a tax on employees. They just adjust what they pay workers downwards to compensate.
Yes, but not straight away and not totally. The measures hurt employers precisely because they they are paying their workers more than they otherwise would. On the whole, their workers prefer that.

This all assumes the tax rises are necessary
Income tax rise treats public sector, small business, corporate jobs and passive income all the same. Employers NI is different for each of those. They are not the same.
The argument against increasing employer NI rather than individual taxes is that it is distorting. This offsets the political advantage to Starmer

The distortion helps with future public sector pay and recruitment, one of his biggest challenges. Now I suspect that is by accident, but maybe it is by design.

No_Offence_Alan · January 17

david_herdson said:

Trump's inauguration will be moved indoors to avoid the risk of him repeating William Henry Harrison's trick.

More likely he was worried by an embarrassingly meagre crowd turning up.

Carnyx · January 17

Malmesbury said:

Nigelb said:
.
Malmesbury said:

RobD said:

Roger said:

RobD said:
.
Roger said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Strangers bar to shut on Monday after alleged spiking
You're not sleeping with Guido are you? You used to be a serious poster albeit a dyed in the wool Tory one
Huh? The story has been reported in several outlets. Don’t you believe it?
Of course I believe it. It's trivial enough to be true.

I'm simply amazed at the nonsense people are interested in.
Someone having their drink spiked in a bar in parliament is a nonsense story?
Closing a bar when this kind of appalling crime happens indicates that multiple instances have happened and that the management of the bar has really shit about dealing with the problem.
Parliament is exempt from licensing regulations - but the current Speaker seems to take his duty of care towards MPs and parliamentary staff reasonably seriously.
Yes, they are exempt.

I suspect that there is a history of incidents and poor response - which is why the bar has been closed.

There is a further angle to this - in London generally, the licensing authorities have been cracking down on premises that don’t take safeguarding seriously. It would be problematic to give a pass to the MPs own bar…

Now if they could just extend that to the notion of H&S in old, falling-downy, buildings which resemble an Australian outback mine for being burny and asbestos-littered.

Big_G_NorthWales · January 17

No_Offence_Alan said:

david_herdson said:

Trump's inauguration will be moved indoors to avoid the risk of him repeating William Henry Harrison's trick.
More likely he was worried by an embarrassingly meagre crowd turning up.

Sky are reporting it is weather related

https://news.sky.com/story/donald-trumps-swearing-in-ceremony-to-be-moved-indoors-due-to-dangerous-cold-weather-13290877

noneoftheabove · January 17

Stuartinromford said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers

But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like

REF: 32
LAB: 24
CON: 24
LD: 10
GN: 7

Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?
Baxter reckons more than 31% gives Reform a majority.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_reform_20241231.html
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?

Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.

And is Farage awful? 10 years ago I'd have said of course. After Boris, Truss, and the likes of Williamson, Patel, Hancock, JRM at the heart of government, Farage doesn't stand out as clearly worse. I suspect he would govern similarly to Boris, enjoy a similar honeymoon period and a similar fall out by running out of MPs willing to bat for him.

Mexicanpete · January 17

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Roger said:

RobD said:
.
Roger said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Strangers bar to shut on Monday after alleged spiking
You're not sleeping with Guido are you? You used to be a serious poster albeit a dyed in the wool Tory one
Huh? The story has been reported in several outlets. Don’t you believe it?
Of course I believe it. It's trivial enough to be true.

I'm simply amazed at the nonsense people are interested in.
Do you seriously think spiking a drink is nonsense ?

And even more so in Parliament
You do have a nose for Labour sleaze scandals. How many Labour by elections are imminent?
Why do you think it is a Labour scandal

I have never said that or implied that

Another apology please

Aren't they always?

Omnium · January 17

noneoftheabove said:

Stuartinromford said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers

But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like

REF: 32
LAB: 24
CON: 24
LD: 10
GN: 7

Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?
Baxter reckons more than 31% gives Reform a majority.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_reform_20241231.html
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?

Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
And is Farage awful? 10 years ago I'd have said of course. After Boris, Truss, and the likes of Williamson, Patel, Hancock, JRM at the heart of government, Farage doesn't stand out as clearly worse. I suspect he would govern similarly to Boris, enjoy a similar honeymoon period and a similar fall out by running out of MPs willing to bat for him.

He's pretty awful. I'd be horrified if he became PM. He's got some interesting and sometimes wise views, and I'm very happy he's part of day-to-day politics. Williamson is the only one of those that you list that I'd be less keen on to lead the country, although of course Truss has totally gone now.

Farage is a country mile better than Corbyn, and look at all the fools who voted for him.

Mexicanpete · January 17

williamglenn said:

Stuartinromford said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers

But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like

REF: 32
LAB: 24
CON: 24
LD: 10
GN: 7

Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?
Baxter reckons more than 31% gives Reform a majority.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_reform_20241231.html
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?

Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
Badenoch or A.N. Other Tory if she’s replaced. My argument is that if Reform turf Labour out across the board in their heartlands then the Tories will be the only viable alternative so will gain by default unless they actively alienate people between now and then.

Look! I'm still not voting Tory!

Big_G_NorthWales · January 17

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Roger said:

RobD said:
.
Roger said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Strangers bar to shut on Monday after alleged spiking
You're not sleeping with Guido are you? You used to be a serious poster albeit a dyed in the wool Tory one
Huh? The story has been reported in several outlets. Don’t you believe it?
Of course I believe it. It's trivial enough to be true.

I'm simply amazed at the nonsense people are interested in.
Do you seriously think spiking a drink is nonsense ?

And even more so in Parliament
You do have a nose for Labour sleaze scandals. How many Labour by elections are imminent?
Why do you think it is a Labour scandal

I have never said that or implied that

Another apology please
Aren't they always?

No they are not nor did I suggest it was a Labour issue

Again you are out of order and I look forward for another apology following a further false accusation towards me

noneoftheabove · January 17

Omnium said:

noneoftheabove said:

Stuartinromford said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers

But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like

REF: 32
LAB: 24
CON: 24
LD: 10
GN: 7

Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?
Baxter reckons more than 31% gives Reform a majority.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_reform_20241231.html
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?

Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
And is Farage awful? 10 years ago I'd have said of course. After Boris, Truss, and the likes of Williamson, Patel, Hancock, JRM at the heart of government, Farage doesn't stand out as clearly worse. I suspect he would govern similarly to Boris, enjoy a similar honeymoon period and a similar fall out by running out of MPs willing to bat for him.
He's pretty awful. I'd be horrified if he became PM. He's got some interesting and sometimes wise views, and I'm very happy he's part of day-to-day politics. Williamson is the only one of those that you list that I'd be less keen on to lead the country, although of course Truss has totally gone now.

Farage is a country mile better than Corbyn, and look at all the fools who voted for him.

I'm sure there are some people who will hate Farage, just as some people who hate all the others above including Corbyn. Some hate Starmer and find him awful. I just don't think it will be two thirds of the country finding him awful (until he has been in charge for a bit).

Gardenwalker · January 17

Omnium said:

noneoftheabove said:

Stuartinromford said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers

But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like

REF: 32
LAB: 24
CON: 24
LD: 10
GN: 7

Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?
Baxter reckons more than 31% gives Reform a majority.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_reform_20241231.html
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?

Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
And is Farage awful? 10 years ago I'd have said of course. After Boris, Truss, and the likes of Williamson, Patel, Hancock, JRM at the heart of government, Farage doesn't stand out as clearly worse. I suspect he would govern similarly to Boris, enjoy a similar honeymoon period and a similar fall out by running out of MPs willing to bat for him.
He's pretty awful. I'd be horrified if he became PM. He's got some interesting and sometimes wise views, and I'm very happy he's part of day-to-day politics. Williamson is the only one of those that you list that I'd be less keen on to lead the country, although of course Truss has totally gone now.

Farage is a country mile better than Corbyn, and look at all the fools who voted for him.

How is Farage a “country mile better than Corbyn”?

Both are organisationally inept ideologues peddling populist film-flam.

Mexicanpete · January 17

Foxy said:

Gardenwalker said:
If Labour:

Turned north sea oil back on
Laid out a credible plan to reform planning and kick start housing builds
Agreed new runways for Heathrow and Gatwick
Suggested that the “closest partnership” with the single market was settled strategy
Announced a reduction in corporate tax
Designated the M6 for automated driving trials.

The economy would actually soar.
I see the IMF have upgraded our projected growth in 2025 to 1.6% not quite the highest in the G7, but respectable.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/17/imf-upgrades-uk-growth-forecast-and-takes-swipe-at-trump-plans?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

What do the IMF know compared to the PB Brains Trust?

Gardenwalker · January 17

Mexicanpete said:

Foxy said:

Gardenwalker said:
If Labour:

Turned north sea oil back on
Laid out a credible plan to reform planning and kick start housing builds
Agreed new runways for Heathrow and Gatwick
Suggested that the “closest partnership” with the single market was settled strategy
Announced a reduction in corporate tax
Designated the M6 for automated driving trials.

The economy would actually soar.
I see the IMF have upgraded our projected growth in 2025 to 1.6% not quite the highest in the G7, but respectable.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/17/imf-upgrades-uk-growth-forecast-and-takes-swipe-at-trump-plans?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
What do the IMF know compared to the PB Brains Trust?

I’m not even questioning the IMF.
I just think 1.6 is barely noticeable, and not good enough.

Foxy · January 17

noneoftheabove said:

Omnium said:

noneoftheabove said:

Stuartinromford said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers

But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like

REF: 32
LAB: 24
CON: 24
LD: 10
GN: 7

Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?
Baxter reckons more than 31% gives Reform a majority.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_reform_20241231.html
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?

Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
And is Farage awful? 10 years ago I'd have said of course. After Boris, Truss, and the likes of Williamson, Patel, Hancock, JRM at the heart of government, Farage doesn't stand out as clearly worse. I suspect he would govern similarly to Boris, enjoy a similar honeymoon period and a similar fall out by running out of MPs willing to bat for him.
He's pretty awful. I'd be horrified if he became PM. He's got some interesting and sometimes wise views, and I'm very happy he's part of day-to-day politics. Williamson is the only one of those that you list that I'd be less keen on to lead the country, although of course Truss has totally gone now.

Farage is a country mile better than Corbyn, and look at all the fools who voted for him.
I'm sure there are some people who will hate Farage, just as some people who hate all the others above including Corbyn. Some hate Starmer and find him awful. I just don't think it will be two thirds of the country finding him awful (until he has been in charge for a bit).

It's not just Farage though. We don't have a presidential system.

Who would be on a Reform Governments front bench?

numbertwelve · January 17

Reform’s ceiling is quite difficult to predict. I think there’s a fair few people who would be Never Farage. He has too much Brexit baggage. So that would immediately limit them to 40% tops, I would say.

35% feels to me the best they could really hope for, if they smash it out of the park in a GE and cannabalise the Tories quite a bit more. There will still be some residual Tory vote.

Omnium · January 17

Gardenwalker said:

Omnium said:

noneoftheabove said:

Stuartinromford said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers

But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like

REF: 32
LAB: 24
CON: 24
LD: 10
GN: 7

Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?
Baxter reckons more than 31% gives Reform a majority.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_reform_20241231.html
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?

Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
And is Farage awful? 10 years ago I'd have said of course. After Boris, Truss, and the likes of Williamson, Patel, Hancock, JRM at the heart of government, Farage doesn't stand out as clearly worse. I suspect he would govern similarly to Boris, enjoy a similar honeymoon period and a similar fall out by running out of MPs willing to bat for him.
He's pretty awful. I'd be horrified if he became PM. He's got some interesting and sometimes wise views, and I'm very happy he's part of day-to-day politics. Williamson is the only one of those that you list that I'd be less keen on to lead the country, although of course Truss has totally gone now.

Farage is a country mile better than Corbyn, and look at all the fools who voted for him.
How is Farage a “country mile better than Corbyn”?

Both are organisationally inept ideologues peddling populist film-flam.

Well.... I trust, if that's the word, Farage not to wreck the country - and I mean simply abandon it to the winds, more than I do Corbyn. Much more. Corbyn would happily screw everyone.

noneoftheabove · January 17

Foxy said:

noneoftheabove said:

Omnium said:

noneoftheabove said:

Stuartinromford said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers

But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like

REF: 32
LAB: 24
CON: 24
LD: 10
GN: 7

Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?
Baxter reckons more than 31% gives Reform a majority.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_reform_20241231.html
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?

Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
And is Farage awful? 10 years ago I'd have said of course. After Boris, Truss, and the likes of Williamson, Patel, Hancock, JRM at the heart of government, Farage doesn't stand out as clearly worse. I suspect he would govern similarly to Boris, enjoy a similar honeymoon period and a similar fall out by running out of MPs willing to bat for him.
He's pretty awful. I'd be horrified if he became PM. He's got some interesting and sometimes wise views, and I'm very happy he's part of day-to-day politics. Williamson is the only one of those that you list that I'd be less keen on to lead the country, although of course Truss has totally gone now.

Farage is a country mile better than Corbyn, and look at all the fools who voted for him.
I'm sure there are some people who will hate Farage, just as some people who hate all the others above including Corbyn. Some hate Starmer and find him awful. I just don't think it will be two thirds of the country finding him awful (until he has been in charge for a bit).
It's not just Farage though. We don't have a presidential system.

Who would be on a Reform Governments front bench?

Again, who would be on the Conservative front bench? Jenrick, Patel and Cleverly are apparently the cream of the crop.

Foxy · January 17

noneoftheabove said:

Foxy said:

noneoftheabove said:

Omnium said:

noneoftheabove said:

Stuartinromford said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers

But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like

REF: 32
LAB: 24
CON: 24
LD: 10
GN: 7

Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?
Baxter reckons more than 31% gives Reform a majority.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_reform_20241231.html
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?

Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
And is Farage awful? 10 years ago I'd have said of course. After Boris, Truss, and the likes of Williamson, Patel, Hancock, JRM at the heart of government, Farage doesn't stand out as clearly worse. I suspect he would govern similarly to Boris, enjoy a similar honeymoon period and a similar fall out by running out of MPs willing to bat for him.
He's pretty awful. I'd be horrified if he became PM. He's got some interesting and sometimes wise views, and I'm very happy he's part of day-to-day politics. Williamson is the only one of those that you list that I'd be less keen on to lead the country, although of course Truss has totally gone now.

Farage is a country mile better than Corbyn, and look at all the fools who voted for him.
I'm sure there are some people who will hate Farage, just as some people who hate all the others above including Corbyn. Some hate Starmer and find him awful. I just don't think it will be two thirds of the country finding him awful (until he has been in charge for a bit).
It's not just Farage though. We don't have a presidential system.

Who would be on a Reform Governments front bench?

Again, who would be on the Conservative front bench? Jenrick, Patel and Cleverly are apparently the cream of the crop.

They may be rubbish, but they are at least known quantities with experience of politics and government.

Barnesian · January 17

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?

25 Tory seats with 17% of the vote.
And Reform get a 56 seat overall majority with 33% of the vote.

The Tories plus Reform are currently at about 50% of the vote.

noneoftheabove · January 17

Foxy said:

noneoftheabove said:

Foxy said:

noneoftheabove said:

Omnium said:

noneoftheabove said:

Stuartinromford said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers

But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like

REF: 32
LAB: 24
CON: 24
LD: 10
GN: 7

Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?
Baxter reckons more than 31% gives Reform a majority.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_reform_20241231.html
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?

Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
And is Farage awful? 10 years ago I'd have said of course. After Boris, Truss, and the likes of Williamson, Patel, Hancock, JRM at the heart of government, Farage doesn't stand out as clearly worse. I suspect he would govern similarly to Boris, enjoy a similar honeymoon period and a similar fall out by running out of MPs willing to bat for him.
He's pretty awful. I'd be horrified if he became PM. He's got some interesting and sometimes wise views, and I'm very happy he's part of day-to-day politics. Williamson is the only one of those that you list that I'd be less keen on to lead the country, although of course Truss has totally gone now.

Farage is a country mile better than Corbyn, and look at all the fools who voted for him.
I'm sure there are some people who will hate Farage, just as some people who hate all the others above including Corbyn. Some hate Starmer and find him awful. I just don't think it will be two thirds of the country finding him awful (until he has been in charge for a bit).
It's not just Farage though. We don't have a presidential system.

Who would be on a Reform Governments front bench?

Again, who would be on the Conservative front bench? Jenrick, Patel and Cleverly are apparently the cream of the crop.
They may be rubbish, but they are at least known quantities with experience of politics and government.

Yeah, that is not going to cut it in terms of getting Labour and LDs voting Conservative to keep Reform out.

numbertwelve · January 17

Omnium said:

Gardenwalker said:

Omnium said:

noneoftheabove said:

Stuartinromford said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers

But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like

REF: 32
LAB: 24
CON: 24
LD: 10
GN: 7

Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?
Baxter reckons more than 31% gives Reform a majority.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_reform_20241231.html
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?

Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
And is Farage awful? 10 years ago I'd have said of course. After Boris, Truss, and the likes of Williamson, Patel, Hancock, JRM at the heart of government, Farage doesn't stand out as clearly worse. I suspect he would govern similarly to Boris, enjoy a similar honeymoon period and a similar fall out by running out of MPs willing to bat for him.
He's pretty awful. I'd be horrified if he became PM. He's got some interesting and sometimes wise views, and I'm very happy he's part of day-to-day politics. Williamson is the only one of those that you list that I'd be less keen on to lead the country, although of course Truss has totally gone now.

Farage is a country mile better than Corbyn, and look at all the fools who voted for him.
How is Farage a “country mile better than Corbyn”?

Both are organisationally inept ideologues peddling populist film-flam.
Well.... I trust, if that's the word, Farage not to wreck the country - and I mean simply abandon it to the winds, more than I do Corbyn. Much more. Corbyn would happily screw everyone.

If Farage were actually to follow through with the sort of policies he talks about, the country would be in for a very painful economic restructuring. That’s not to say it would be impossible - plenty have done it around the world before - but it would not be an easy ride.

Malmesbury · January 17

Carnyx said:

Malmesbury said:

Nigelb said:
.
Malmesbury said:

RobD said:

Roger said:

RobD said:
.
Roger said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Strangers bar to shut on Monday after alleged spiking
You're not sleeping with Guido are you? You used to be a serious poster albeit a dyed in the wool Tory one
Huh? The story has been reported in several outlets. Don’t you believe it?
Of course I believe it. It's trivial enough to be true.

I'm simply amazed at the nonsense people are interested in.
Someone having their drink spiked in a bar in parliament is a nonsense story?
Closing a bar when this kind of appalling crime happens indicates that multiple instances have happened and that the management of the bar has really shit about dealing with the problem.
Parliament is exempt from licensing regulations - but the current Speaker seems to take his duty of care towards MPs and parliamentary staff reasonably seriously.
Yes, they are exempt.

I suspect that there is a history of incidents and poor response - which is why the bar has been closed.

There is a further angle to this - in London generally, the licensing authorities have been cracking down on premises that don’t take safeguarding seriously. It would be problematic to give a pass to the MPs own bar…
Now if they could just extend that to the notion of H&S in old, falling-downy, buildings which resemble an Australian outback mine for being burny and asbestos-littered.

Bit harsh on the Scottish Parliament, there.

Foxy · January 17

Gardenwalker said:

Mexicanpete said:

Foxy said:

Gardenwalker said:
If Labour:

Turned north sea oil back on
Laid out a credible plan to reform planning and kick start housing builds
Agreed new runways for Heathrow and Gatwick
Suggested that the “closest partnership” with the single market was settled strategy
Announced a reduction in corporate tax
Designated the M6 for automated driving trials.

The economy would actually soar.
I see the IMF have upgraded our projected growth in 2025 to 1.6% not quite the highest in the G7, but respectable.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/17/imf-upgrades-uk-growth-forecast-and-takes-swipe-at-trump-plans?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
What do the IMF know compared to the PB Brains Trust?
I’m not even questioning the IMF.
I just think 1.6 is barely noticeable, and not good enough.

Sure but that is pretty much on our long term average trend over recent decades. It isn't a disaster.

Of course 2025 is going to be particularly subject to events, with Trump erratic as hell, and possible culmination of the Russian war on Ukraine.

noneoftheabove · January 17

noneoftheabove said:

Foxy said:

noneoftheabove said:

Foxy said:

noneoftheabove said:

Omnium said:

noneoftheabove said:

Stuartinromford said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers

But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like

REF: 32
LAB: 24
CON: 24
LD: 10
GN: 7

Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?
Baxter reckons more than 31% gives Reform a majority.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_reform_20241231.html
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?

Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
And is Farage awful? 10 years ago I'd have said of course. After Boris, Truss, and the likes of Williamson, Patel, Hancock, JRM at the heart of government, Farage doesn't stand out as clearly worse. I suspect he would govern similarly to Boris, enjoy a similar honeymoon period and a similar fall out by running out of MPs willing to bat for him.
He's pretty awful. I'd be horrified if he became PM. He's got some interesting and sometimes wise views, and I'm very happy he's part of day-to-day politics. Williamson is the only one of those that you list that I'd be less keen on to lead the country, although of course Truss has totally gone now.

Farage is a country mile better than Corbyn, and look at all the fools who voted for him.
I'm sure there are some people who will hate Farage, just as some people who hate all the others above including Corbyn. Some hate Starmer and find him awful. I just don't think it will be two thirds of the country finding him awful (until he has been in charge for a bit).
It's not just Farage though. We don't have a presidential system.

Who would be on a Reform Governments front bench?

Again, who would be on the Conservative front bench? Jenrick, Patel and Cleverly are apparently the cream of the crop.
They may be rubbish, but they are at least known quantities with experience of politics and government.
Yeah, that is not going to cut it in terms of getting Labour and LDs voting Conservative to keep Reform out.

Also if Reform are looking like winning, a chunk of the Conservative shadow cabinet will end up standing for Reform.

Omnium · January 17

numbertwelve said:

Omnium said:

Gardenwalker said:

Omnium said:

noneoftheabove said:

Stuartinromford said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers

But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like

REF: 32
LAB: 24
CON: 24
LD: 10
GN: 7

Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?
Baxter reckons more than 31% gives Reform a majority.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_reform_20241231.html
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?

Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
And is Farage awful? 10 years ago I'd have said of course. After Boris, Truss, and the likes of Williamson, Patel, Hancock, JRM at the heart of government, Farage doesn't stand out as clearly worse. I suspect he would govern similarly to Boris, enjoy a similar honeymoon period and a similar fall out by running out of MPs willing to bat for him.
He's pretty awful. I'd be horrified if he became PM. He's got some interesting and sometimes wise views, and I'm very happy he's part of day-to-day politics. Williamson is the only one of those that you list that I'd be less keen on to lead the country, although of course Truss has totally gone now.

Farage is a country mile better than Corbyn, and look at all the fools who voted for him.
How is Farage a “country mile better than Corbyn”?

Both are organisationally inept ideologues peddling populist film-flam.
Well.... I trust, if that's the word, Farage not to wreck the country - and I mean simply abandon it to the winds, more than I do Corbyn. Much more. Corbyn would happily screw everyone.
If Farage were actually to follow through with the sort of policies he talks about, the country would be in for a very painful economic restructuring. That’s not to say it would be impossible - plenty have done it around the world before - but it would not be an easy ride.

Yes. Should he become PM there's a lot of risk. The Tories gave us Boris and Truss - mix them up and filter out the good bits, and you get what's on offer from a Reform PM (Farage is better than the others in his party)

williamglenn · January 17

Shock election forecast: if Reform and the Tories tie on 31% and Labour sink to the teens, we could have a result like this with Reform 73 short of a majority:

Reform: 31% - 253 seats (+248)
Conservative: 31% - 232 seats (+111)
Lib Dem: 12% - 67 seats (-5)
Labour: 16% - 24 seats (-388)

EPG · January 17

williamglenn said:
Shock election forecast: if Reform and the Tories tie on 31% and Labour sink to the teens, we could have a result like this with Reform 73 short of a majority:

Reform: 31% - 253 seats (+248)
Conservative: 31% - 232 seats (+111)
Lib Dem: 12% - 67 seats (-5)
Labour: 16% - 24 seats (-388)

Get thee to a betting market.

squareroot2 · January 17

williamglenn said:
Shock election forecast: if Reform and the Tories tie on 31% and Labour sink to the teens, we could have a result like this with Reform 73 short of a majority:

Reform: 31% - 253 seats (+248)
Conservative: 31% - 232 seats (+111)
Lib Dem: 12% - 67 seats (-5)
Labour: 16% - 24 seats (-388)

Aunt balls uncle.

Northern_Al · January 17

rkrkrk said:
Apparently 51/10,000 private school students in Edinburgh have switched to state schools in January.
I'm sticking to my prediction that the independent school sector will be just fine.

https://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3lfwhabtli22c

Also, the apocryphal reports of loads of private schools giving up and shutting their doors that were rife throughout the autumn seem to have rather petered out.

Barnesian · January 17

Northern_Al said:
I'm sort of guessing, but I think Reform's progress will be hampered in a GE by a failure to win seats in the big cities. I can't seem them winning more than a small handful of seats in London (73 constituencies), Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow, Sheffield, Leeds, Bristol and so on, even if their national vote is around 30%.

They'll knock it out of the park in Essex, Lincolnshire and Kent, though.

Reform are putting a lot of effort into the 2026 local elections in London.

The Secretary of the Richmond and Twickenham Reform Branch has just emailed me. This is what he says, in part:

There has been a lot going on behind the scenes, and the newly appointed team at Reform HQ have been putting in quite the shift in getting the support infrastructure for the upcoming campaigns in place. For us, this means preparing for the May 2026 local elections, where we are planning to field and then support a full slate of candidates (3 in each electoral ward). You can see a map of the borough here that shows the 18 wards in our Branch.

At this stage, I am looking to assemble ward captains who can co-ordinate the activities in each electoral ward, as well as individuals who are willing to put themselves forward to be a candidate . We will discuss this at the upcoming meetings, but please also get in touch with me directly if you are interested in finding out more about this.

Finally, the most important thing you can do is spread the word that Reform is 'open for business' in the London Borough of Richmond upon Thames. Please pass on the links below – it makes a very big difference when people sign up, become members and/or donate to our local branch.

numbertwelve · January 17

It is worth reiterating though it’s a tough old job for Reform to win a majority. I would actually go a lot further and say that it’s going to be a tough old job for any party to win a majority at the next GE the way things are going.

Looking at Reform targets into the high 200s/low 300s you’re getting seats like Penrith, Tiverton, Poole, Carshalton - I know this is UNS, so swing isn’t consistent, but these are seats with profiles I wouldn’t typically think of as “Reform”. This is even before a majority of one. If you’re starting to look at majorities of say 30-50 you’re at Tunbridge Wells, Taunton and Salisbury.

Political earthquakes happen, so I’m not ruling anything out at the moment, but Reform need to be moving beyond core constituencies to win outright.

Sean_F · January 17

If the Conservatives were to implode, I expect that Reforn’s ceiling would be 40%.

Barnesian · January 17

HYUFD said:

Northern_Al said:
I'm sort of guessing, but I think Reform's progress will be hampered in a GE by a failure to win seats in the big cities. I can't seem them winning more than a small handful of seats in London (73 constituencies), Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow, Sheffield, Leeds, Bristol and so on, even if their national vote is around 30%.

They'll knock it out of the park in Essex, Lincolnshire and Kent, though.
I don't think Reform will win a single seat in any big UK city you name except maybe Dagenham and Hornchurch and Upminster and Romford and Old Bexley and Sidcup in Outer London and at a push Birmingham Northfield and Birmingham Hodge Hill.

They won't win all of Essex either, Kemi will hold NW Essex and Chelmsford likely stays LD even if Reform won most votes nationally, in Kent too Sevenoaks and Tonbridge likely stay Tory regardless, Canterbury Labour and Tunbridge Wells LD even if Reform swept the other seats in both counties and won every seat in Lincolnshire

Reform will take votes from Con and Lab and leave LD untouched. Good news for LD.

Eabhal · January 17

williamglenn said:
Shock election forecast: if Reform and the Tories tie on 31% and Labour sink to the teens, we could have a result like this with Reform 73 short of a majority:

Reform: 31% - 253 seats (+248)
Conservative: 31% - 232 seats (+111)
Lib Dem: 12% - 67 seats (-5)
Labour: 16% - 24 seats (-388)

To pre-empt HYUFD, Reform + Conservative gives you 602 seats for Badenoch.

DYOR.

boulay · January 17

…

Omnium said:

numbertwelve said:

Omnium said:

Gardenwalker said:

Omnium said:

noneoftheabove said:

Stuartinromford said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Burgessian said:

bigjohnowls said:
From today's Fuck around

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 25% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Jan.
Changes w/ 8 Jan.

SKS Fans please explain
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.

My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?

That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader

Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers

But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like

REF: 32
LAB: 24
CON: 24
LD: 10
GN: 7

Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?
Baxter reckons more than 31% gives Reform a majority.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_reform_20241231.html
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?

Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
And is Farage awful? 10 years ago I'd have said of course. After Boris, Truss, and the likes of Williamson, Patel, Hancock, JRM at the heart of government, Farage doesn't stand out as clearly worse. I suspect he would govern similarly to Boris, enjoy a similar honeymoon period and a similar fall out by running out of MPs willing to bat for him.
He's pretty awful. I'd be horrified if he became PM. He's got some interesting and sometimes wise views, and I'm very happy he's part of day-to-day politics. Williamson is the only one of those that you list that I'd be less keen on to lead the country, although of course Truss has totally gone now.

Farage is a country mile better than Corbyn, and look at all the fools who voted for him.
How is Farage a “country mile better than Corbyn”?

Both are organisationally inept ideologues peddling populist film-flam.
Well.... I trust, if that's the word, Farage not to wreck the country - and I mean simply abandon it to the winds, more than I do Corbyn. Much more. Corbyn would happily screw everyone.
If Farage were actually to follow through with the sort of policies he talks about, the country would be in for a very painful economic restructuring. That’s not to say it would be impossible - plenty have done it around the world before - but it would not be an easy ride.
Yes. Should he become PM there's a lot of risk. The Tories gave us Boris and Truss - mix them up and filter out the good bits, and you get what's on offer from a Reform PM (Farage is better than the others in his party)

Having had the dubious pleasure of spending several hours drinking and talking with him I would give my absolutely fool proof insight.

He’s a bit of a one trick pony, or was. He’s not the most interesting man and very far from being a renaissance man. He’s a nice man. He’s polite and pleasant. He loves his vision of the UK, maybe really England. He’s not stupid. He probably sees himself as one of the stout yeoman of Agincourt (to hark to earlier posts). He thinks he would have been drinking with Hal and Falstaff. He wants, truly, Britain to be great.

I think he probably should have worked his way through Tory ranks but it was probably too much like hard work. He saw an opening and a lazy shortcut.

I think he is actually, by virtue of his beliefs and career background, one of the few politicians where if he had power would listen to people who know their shit about the economy and business even if it disagreed with easy statements he made to get elected.

He’s not and Orban or a Fico. He’s not Mosley, Le Pen, Tommy, Putin.

I don’t want reform governing, I want a strong Tory party with sensible economic and social ideas, but if the worst populist we get is Nige then we are very very lucky.

Omnium · January 17

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Northern_Al said:
I'm sort of guessing, but I think Reform's progress will be hampered in a GE by a failure to win seats in the big cities. I can't seem them winning more than a small handful of seats in London (73 constituencies), Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow, Sheffield, Leeds, Bristol and so on, even if their national vote is around 30%.

They'll knock it out of the park in Essex, Lincolnshire and Kent, though.
I don't think Reform will win a single seat in any big UK city you name except maybe Dagenham and Hornchurch and Upminster and Romford and Old Bexley and Sidcup in Outer London and at a push Birmingham Northfield and Birmingham Hodge Hill.

They won't win all of Essex either, Kemi will hold NW Essex and Chelmsford likely stays LD even if Reform won most votes nationally, in Kent too Sevenoaks and Tonbridge likely stay Tory regardless, Canterbury Labour and Tunbridge Wells LD even if Reform swept the other seats in both counties and won every seat in Lincolnshire
Reform will take votes from Con and Lab and leave LD untouched. Good news for LD.

Ah, the Ed Davey express. Stopping at all stations, but not arriving.

Sleazy does it – politicalbetting.com

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