When I was at junior school in South Birmingham after Birmingham City and way ahead of Villa ( Villa were in the 3rd Division) in numbers came United. Loads of kids had duffle bags with pictures of Best, Law or Charlton printed on them. I'd say Law was even more popular than Best on the duffle bag poll.
Dirty Leeds were the team of the era but everyone at my school hated dirty Leeds.
Oh. Which bit of south birmingham were you in?
I was dragged up in SW Brum - 1970s/early 80s.
Quite a few Baggies fans at the time.
Wythall/ Hollywood. I lived for 15 years (until 1977) just off the Alcester (Allsesster to you and me) Road near "Beckett's Island". I went to Woodrush High School.
There were three Baggies in my year. Boing, boing.
That's where the greatest pop group of all time are from, Duran Duran.
I was in the same top sets as Nick Bates (Rhodes) at Woodrush. My Mum knew Jean Taylor, Nigel (John) 's mum. I'm not sure I've mentioned that before...more than several dozen times.
I'm currently writing a report on a simulated negotiation.
I just, with no trace of irony, wrote the phrase "no deal is better than a bad deal".
I hope you're all proud of me.
(gd&r)
It is of course worth noting that it should be 'no deal would be preferable to a bad deal' because otherwise, grammatically speaking, you are saying that a bad deal would be better than any other deal.
Ironically, that certainly seems to have been Johnson's view.
When I was at junior school in South Birmingham after Birmingham City and way ahead of Villa ( Villa were in the 3rd Division) in numbers came United. Loads of kids had duffle bags with pictures of Best, Law or Charlton printed on them. I'd say Law was even more popular than Best on the duffle bag poll.
Dirty Leeds were the team of the era but everyone at my school hated dirty Leeds.
Oh. Which bit of south birmingham were you in?
I was dragged up in SW Brum - 1970s/early 80s.
Quite a few Baggies fans at the time.
Wythall/ Hollywood. I lived for 15 years (until 1977) just off the Alcester (Allsesster to you and me) Road near "Beckett's Island". I went to Woodrush High School.
There were three Baggies in my year. Boing, boing.
That's where the greatest pop group of all time are from, Duran Duran.
I was in the same top sets as Nick Bates (Rhodes) at Woodrush. My Mum knew Jean Taylor, Nigel (John) 's mum. I'm not sure I've mentioned that before...more than several dozen times.
I can't believe Nick Rhodes and John Taylor weren't their real names...
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
She's absolutely right about the issues raised by the curriculum review, and I agree with her.
The international statistics are not nearly as clear cut as she claims. In particular, the sample sizes were rather warped by outside factors. Moreover, there are major issues coming with literacy due to that imbecile Spielman's bungling of OFSTED systems, which was definitely a Tory disaster.
Why should the Secretary of State congratulate particular schools doing well on one metric? That seemed a petty criticism.
Uniforms are an issue, but I don't agree with her about the need for them to be essential. Too often they are a convenient cash cow for schools.
I don't know of any academy chains that pay other than main scale/upper scale. Some private schools do, although most pay lower rates than the state sector. It may be different in London. Anyone who says financing it is achieved by 'cutting back office functions' or 'thinking outside the box' should probably be ignored anyway.
The real issue is that the everything Labour is doing is ignoring the actual problem - we're trying to have Scandinavian teaching systems with French class sizes and Chinese budgets. We've tried that for forty years and we've reached the end of the road. Time to choose what model we actually want.
We'd like Singaporean results for free please.
Indeed.
Among other things I'd like would be for the DfE to show some sense, but that won't happen either.
Edit - incidentally hope you and the family are all OK.
I’ve just had an idea. Relocate the DfE to some nice wooden buildings in the foothills above LA. The foreign location, the views, commune with nature.
JUST IN: Bill Gates says he was very “impressed” by Trump during their three hour dinner together.
Everyone is falling in line. Interesting.
Gates said he and the president elect had a very “intriguing” conversation about global health.
“[Trump was] energized and looking forward to helping to drive innovation. You know, I was frankly impressed with how well he showed a lot of interest in the issues I brought up.”
Of course he's humouring him, although perhaps they chewed the fat over old times at the Island owned by ... Now what was that guy's name?
I'm currently writing a report on a simulated negotiation.
I just, with no trace of irony, wrote the phrase "no deal is better than a bad deal".
I hope you're all proud of me.
(gd&r)
It is of course worth noting that it should be 'no deal would be preferable to a bad deal' because otherwise, grammatically speaking, you are saying that a bad deal would be better than any other deal.
Ironically, that certainly seems to have been Johnson's view.
It will probably pick up some punctuation in editing, assuming that the word limit doesn't force me to excise the sentence...
I'm currently writing a report on a simulated negotiation.
I just, with no trace of irony, wrote the phrase "no deal is better than a bad deal".
I hope you're all proud of me.
(gd&r)
It is of course worth noting that it should be 'no deal would be preferable to a bad deal' because otherwise, grammatically speaking, you are saying that a bad deal would be better than any other deal.
Ironically, that certainly seems to have been Johnson's view.
It will probably pick up some punctuation in editing, assuming that the word limit doesn't force me to excise the sentence...
Word limits? Really, what sort of person mentions such a disgusting subject?
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
Quoting Allison Pearson and Katherine Birbelsingh as non partisans is interesting. Mandy Rice-Davies applies.
I never liked Birbelsingh before I knew she was a raging Tory. I don't like her methods. Are we sure they work as well as she claims? Lies, damned lies and statistics and all that.
What is it about her methods you don't like?
I don't believe, from what I have seen on her self agrandising TV appearances that she respects her students. I don't approve of all the marine style "stand up, sit down" nonsense. Her claim is this subdues the students into submission and they behave themselves, pass all their exams and become pillars of society. I didn't treat my children like that and they have done OK.
In my day rather than some oaf shouting "stand up, sit down " orders to break us at Grammar school our teachers used to beat us with a training shoe. A similar principle from what I can see.
Training shoe? You were lucky. At Newent, it was a full mace.
(Something about gravel.)
Is that Four Yorkshiremen about to enter the conversation?
{prybars open a case of Magnums of Chateau de Chassilier}
When I was at junior school in South Birmingham after Birmingham City and way ahead of Villa ( Villa were in the 3rd Division) in numbers came United. Loads of kids had duffle bags with pictures of Best, Law or Charlton printed on them. I'd say Law was even more popular than Best on the duffle bag poll.
Dirty Leeds were the team of the era but everyone at my school hated dirty Leeds.
Oh. Which bit of south birmingham were you in?
I was dragged up in SW Brum - 1970s/early 80s.
Quite a few Baggies fans at the time.
Wythall/ Hollywood. I lived for 15 years (until 1977) just off the Alcester (Allsesster to you and me) Road near "Beckett's Island". I went to Woodrush High School.
There were three Baggies in my year. Boing, boing.
That's where the greatest pop group of all time are from, Duran Duran.
I was in the same top sets as Nick Bates (Rhodes) at Woodrush. My Mum knew Jean Taylor, Nigel (John) 's mum. I'm not sure I've mentioned that before...more than several dozen times.
I can't believe Nick Rhodes and John Taylor weren't their real names...
At school Rhodes was referred tol by one or two hard of thinking comedians as Master....
Imagine Taylor thought Nigel was an inappropriate name for a rockstar and now we have rockstar Prime Minister in waiting Nigel Farage. Everything is cyclical.
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.
My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?
That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader
Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers
But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?
Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
And is Farage awful? 10 years ago I'd have said of course. After Boris, Truss, and the likes of Williamson, Patel, Hancock, JRM at the heart of government, Farage doesn't stand out as clearly worse. I suspect he would govern similarly to Boris, enjoy a similar honeymoon period and a similar fall out by running out of MPs willing to bat for him.
He's pretty awful. I'd be horrified if he became PM. He's got some interesting and sometimes wise views, and I'm very happy he's part of day-to-day politics. Williamson is the only one of those that you list that I'd be less keen on to lead the country, although of course Truss has totally gone now.
Farage is a country mile better than Corbyn, and look at all the fools who voted for him.
How is Farage a “country mile better than Corbyn”?
Both are organisationally inept ideologues peddling populist film-flam.
Well.... I trust, if that's the word, Farage not to wreck the country - and I mean simply abandon it to the winds, more than I do Corbyn. Much more. Corbyn would happily screw everyone.
If Farage were actually to follow through with the sort of policies he talks about, the country would be in for a very painful economic restructuring. That’s not to say it would be impossible - plenty have done it around the world before - but it would not be an easy ride.
Yes. Should he become PM there's a lot of risk. The Tories gave us Boris and Truss - mix them up and filter out the good bits, and you get what's on offer from a Reform PM (Farage is better than the others in his party)
Having had the dubious pleasure of spending several hours drinking and talking with him I would give my absolutely fool proof insight.
He’s a bit of a one trick pony, or was. He’s not the most interesting man and very far from being a renaissance man. He’s a nice man. He’s polite and pleasant. He loves his vision of the UK, maybe really England. He’s not stupid. He probably sees himself as one of the stout yeoman of Agincourt (to hark to earlier posts). He thinks he would have been drinking with Hal and Falstaff. He wants, truly, Britain to be great.
I think he probably should have worked his way through Tory ranks but it was probably too much like hard work. He saw an opening and a lazy shortcut.
I think he is actually, by virtue of his beliefs and career background, one of the few politicians where if he had power would listen to people who know their shit about the economy and business even if it disagreed with easy statements he made to get elected.
He’s not and Orban or a Fico. He’s not Mosley, Le Pen, Tommy, Putin.
I don’t want reform governing, I want a strong Tory party with sensible economic and social ideas, but if the worst populist we get is Nige then we are very very lucky.
"Polite and pleasant....." I think you're confusing him with a different Farage.
Oh Roger, i know we come from different political tribes, will be antagonised by each other and disagree vehemently on many things but I’m certain that in real life we would have an absolute hoot over a long lunch. We would be civilised and enjoy our differences but enjoy more our similarities.
The point is that whilst I’m not a fan of Nigel, and disagree with policies or pronouncements, I’m also able to tell he’s actually a fairly nice, decent man at heart.
Most people are. I doubt there is anyone here who wouldn’t help another PBer in trouble regardless of their political beliefs. We banter and disagree but we can also see good and fun things in each other.
Farage isn't a monster, he’s a pretty ordinary man in some ways, you might even enjoy a drink with him.
It’s always better to acknowledge the good in your opponents than demonise them.
When I was at junior school in South Birmingham after Birmingham City and way ahead of Villa ( Villa were in the 3rd Division) in numbers came United. Loads of kids had duffle bags with pictures of Best, Law or Charlton printed on them. I'd say Law was even more popular than Best on the duffle bag poll.
Dirty Leeds were the team of the era but everyone at my school hated dirty Leeds.
Oh. Which bit of south birmingham were you in?
I was dragged up in SW Brum - 1970s/early 80s.
Quite a few Baggies fans at the time.
Wythall/ Hollywood. I lived for 15 years (until 1977) just off the Alcester (Allsesster to you and me) Road near "Beckett's Island". I went to Woodrush High School.
There were three Baggies in my year. Boing, boing.
That's where the greatest pop group of all time are from, Duran Duran.
I was in the same top sets as Nick Bates (Rhodes) at Woodrush. My Mum knew Jean Taylor, Nigel (John) 's mum. I'm not sure I've mentioned that before...more than several dozen times.
I can't believe Nick Rhodes and John Taylor weren't their real names...
When I was at junior school in South Birmingham after Birmingham City and way ahead of Villa ( Villa were in the 3rd Division) in numbers came United. Loads of kids had duffle bags with pictures of Best, Law or Charlton printed on them. I'd say Law was even more popular than Best on the duffle bag poll.
Dirty Leeds were the team of the era but everyone at my school hated dirty Leeds.
Oh. Which bit of south birmingham were you in?
I was dragged up in SW Brum - 1970s/early 80s.
Quite a few Baggies fans at the time.
Wythall/ Hollywood. I lived for 15 years (until 1977) just off the Alcester (Allsesster to you and me) Road near "Beckett's Island". I went to Woodrush High School.
There were three Baggies in my year. Boing, boing.
That's where the greatest pop group of all time are from, Duran Duran.
I was in the same top sets as Nick Bates (Rhodes) at Woodrush. My Mum knew Jean Taylor, Nigel (John) 's mum. I'm not sure I've mentioned that before...more than several dozen times.
I can't believe Nick Rhodes and John Taylor weren't their real names...
A friend of a friend at my school claimed he had played briefly with the band.
JUST IN: Bill Gates says he was very “impressed” by Trump during their three hour dinner together.
Everyone is falling in line. Interesting.
Gates said he and the president elect had a very “intriguing” conversation about global health.
“[Trump was] energized and looking forward to helping to drive innovation. You know, I was frankly impressed with how well he showed a lot of interest in the issues I brought up.”
Of course he's humouring him, although perhaps they chewed the fat over old times at the Island owned by ... Now what was that guy's name?
Last time I was there someone had put post it notes in their window spelling out "Epstein did not kill himself"
When I was last in Philadelphia I just ran up and down the Rocky steps.
On the city tour open topped bus the guide came around and introduced himself to the punters. When we said we were from Wales he practiced his perfect fluent Welsh that he had learned at his Welsh Presbyterian church on two non-Welsh speakers. It's a small World after all.
When I was at junior school in South Birmingham after Birmingham City and way ahead of Villa ( Villa were in the 3rd Division) in numbers came United. Loads of kids had duffle bags with pictures of Best, Law or Charlton printed on them. I'd say Law was even more popular than Best on the duffle bag poll.
Dirty Leeds were the team of the era but everyone at my school hated dirty Leeds.
Oh. Which bit of south birmingham were you in?
I was dragged up in SW Brum - 1970s/early 80s.
Quite a few Baggies fans at the time.
Wythall/ Hollywood. I lived for 15 years (until 1977) just off the Alcester (Allsesster to you and me) Road near "Beckett's Island". I went to Woodrush High School.
There were three Baggies in my year. Boing, boing.
That's where the greatest pop group of all time are from, Duran Duran.
I was in the same top sets as Nick Bates (Rhodes) at Woodrush. My Mum knew Jean Taylor, Nigel (John) 's mum. I'm not sure I've mentioned that before...more than several dozen times.
I can't believe Nick Rhodes and John Taylor weren't their real names...
At school Rhodes was referred tol by one or two hard of thinking comedians as Master....
Imagine Taylor thought Nigel was an inappropriate name for a rockstar and now we have rockstar Prime Minister in waiting Nigel Farage. Everything is cyclical.
I've generally been a conservative all my life but couldn't bring myself to vote for Rishi (or anyone else, tom my shame First time not voting in my life pretty much). Honestly, I'm not seeing anything tempting about Kemi and I'm appalled by Reform and Trump. Is anyone of a similar mindset to em and thinks we need some kind of sensible party to vote for?
I've generally been a conservative all my life but couldn't bring myself to vote for Rishi (or anyone else, tom my shame First time not voting in my life pretty much). Honestly, I'm not seeing anything tempting about Kemi and I'm appalled by Reform and Trump. Is anyone of a similar mindset to em and thinks we need some kind of sensible party to vote for?
Turned north sea oil back on Laid out a credible plan to reform planning and kick start housing builds Agreed new runways for Heathrow and Gatwick Suggested that the “closest partnership” with the single market was settled strategy Announced a reduction in corporate tax Designated the M6 for automated driving trials.
The economy would actually soar.
I see the IMF have upgraded our projected growth in 2025 to 1.6% not quite the highest in the G7, but respectable.
What do the IMF know compared to the PB Brains Trust?
I’m not even questioning the IMF. I just think 1.6 is barely noticeable, and not good enough.
Labour's plan requires growth above the long term trend. 1.6% might as well be going backwards in that case. So yes it might be growth, and it might be better than some others, but it's not what Labour are banking on.
If at the end of five years all Starmer can say is "well the Tories might have been worse" he's toast. He's not transforming Britain without much higher growth.
Nobody's transforming Britain in a parliament. It's a pipedream.
If Labour can make the economy first past the post, that 1.6% rise should more than double everyone's wealth.
I've generally been a conservative all my life but couldn't bring myself to vote for Rishi (or anyone else, tom my shame First time not voting in my life pretty much). Honestly, I'm not seeing anything tempting about Kemi and I'm appalled by Reform and Trump. Is anyone of a similar mindset to em and thinks we need some kind of sensible party to vote for?
Ed Davey's LibDems?
While I don't disagree with everything he says or does, I'm not a natural lib dem. I voted Brexit in 2016 (long time ago now and I'm not sure it was necessarily he right thing to have done) but I think in the long run we're better off out. However, other than that I could consider them. My problem with them has always been that I've agreed with them up until a point in their manifesto that is completely incompatible with my views (varies depending on the year. I first voted in a general election at 2015, just too young for 2010). I'm pretty nostalgic for coalition Cameron tbh
I've generally been a conservative all my life but couldn't bring myself to vote for Rishi (or anyone else, tom my shame First time not voting in my life pretty much). Honestly, I'm not seeing anything tempting about Kemi and I'm appalled by Reform and Trump. Is anyone of a similar mindset to em and thinks we need some kind of sensible party to vote for?
Welcome
If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border, which side do you bury the survivors?
As to your question no. Perhaps it’s time to start one?
I've generally been a conservative all my life but couldn't bring myself to vote for Rishi (or anyone else, tom my shame First time not voting in my life pretty much). Honestly, I'm not seeing anything tempting about Kemi and I'm appalled by Reform and Trump. Is anyone of a similar mindset to em and thinks we need some kind of sensible party to vote for?
Ed Davey's LibDems?
While I don't disagree with everything he says or does, I'm not a natural lib dem.
That does raise the interesting question of what is a natural Lib Dem?
Granted, no party is ideologically 100% consistent, so you get some broad ranges in most parties, but what are the dealbreakers for Lib Dem hood I wonder.
I've generally been a conservative all my life but couldn't bring myself to vote for Rishi (or anyone else, tom my shame First time not voting in my life pretty much). Honestly, I'm not seeing anything tempting about Kemi and I'm appalled by Reform and Trump. Is anyone of a similar mindset to em and thinks we need some kind of sensible party to vote for?
Welcome
If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border, which side do you bury the survivors?
As to your question no. Perhaps it’s time to start one?
Trust me, I'm 100% pro-Ukraine. If nothing else, us supporting them has helped my share price and career but also it's obviously the correct thing to do
JUST IN: Bill Gates says he was very “impressed” by Trump during their three hour dinner together.
Everyone is falling in line. Interesting.
Gates said he and the president elect had a very “intriguing” conversation about global health.
“[Trump was] energized and looking forward to helping to drive innovation. You know, I was frankly impressed with how well he showed a lot of interest in the issues I brought up.”
At least he didn't feel the need to say how handsome and good at golf Trump was as well. Sure, make nice, but retain some dignity.
I've generally been a conservative all my life but couldn't bring myself to vote for Rishi (or anyone else, tom my shame First time not voting in my life pretty much). Honestly, I'm not seeing anything tempting about Kemi and I'm appalled by Reform and Trump. Is anyone of a similar mindset to em and thinks we need some kind of sensible party to vote for?
Ed Davey's LibDems?
While I don't disagree with everything he says or does, I'm not a natural lib dem.
That does raise the interesting question of what is a natural Lib Dem?
Granted, no party is ideologically 100% consistent, so you get some broad ranges in most parties, but what are the dealbreakers for Lib Dem hood I wonder.
Not sure if it's sandals (I'm a crocs in the house man) but recently at least for me it's been tax policy (punishing success) and probably incessant EU -philia.
But I really think that Davey has to bow out from the LibDems and ‘someone’ else take over. Mind, I’ve no idea who.
The 2024 result was so successful for the LDs, despite the party not really breaking back into the kinds of voteshare it once managed to reach, that he should bow out soon - they've probably peaked, and he can go out with the achievement intact.
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
She's absolutely right about the issues raised by the curriculum review, and I agree with her.
The international statistics are not nearly as clear cut as she claims. In particular, the sample sizes were rather warped by outside factors. Moreover, there are major issues coming with literacy due to that imbecile Spielman's bungling of OFSTED systems, which was definitely a Tory disaster.
Why should the Secretary of State congratulate particular schools doing well on one metric? That seemed a petty criticism.
Uniforms are an issue, but I don't agree with her about the need for them to be essential. Too often they are a convenient cash cow for schools.
I don't know of any academy chains that pay other than main scale/upper scale. Some private schools do, although most pay lower rates than the state sector. It may be different in London. Anyone who says financing it is achieved by 'cutting back office functions' or 'thinking outside the box' should probably be ignored anyway.
The real issue is that the everything Labour is doing is ignoring the actual problem - we're trying to have Scandinavian teaching systems with French class sizes and Chinese budgets. We've tried that for forty years and we've reached the end of the road. Time to choose what model we actually want.
We'd like Singaporean results for free please.
That kind of message to the British public might see you win a GE.
"At least half of the 40 new hospitals pledged by Boris Johnson will not be built for many years, the Guardian has learned, in a move decried as “devastating” for staff and patients.
Labour will announce that many of the crumbling NHS hospitals in England that were due to be replaced by 2030 will not be completed according to the original timeframe.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, will blame the Conservatives for bequeathing Labour a huge infrastructure project that was budgeted only until this March and for which costs have soared to an estimated £30bn.
The announcement, likely to be made early next week"
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
She's absolutely right about the issues raised by the curriculum review, and I agree with her.
The international statistics are not nearly as clear cut as she claims. In particular, the sample sizes were rather warped by outside factors. Moreover, there are major issues coming with literacy due to that imbecile Spielman's bungling of OFSTED systems, which was definitely a Tory disaster.
Why should the Secretary of State congratulate particular schools doing well on one metric? That seemed a petty criticism.
Uniforms are an issue, but I don't agree with her about the need for them to be essential. Too often they are a convenient cash cow for schools.
I don't know of any academy chains that pay other than main scale/upper scale. Some private schools do, although most pay lower rates than the state sector. It may be different in London. Anyone who says financing it is achieved by 'cutting back office functions' or 'thinking outside the box' should probably be ignored anyway.
The real issue is that the everything Labour is doing is ignoring the actual problem - we're trying to have Scandinavian teaching systems with French class sizes and Chinese budgets. We've tried that for forty years and we've reached the end of the road. Time to choose what model we actually want.
We'd like Singaporean results for free please.
That kind of message to the British public might see you win a GE.
Not exactly JFK's javelin aimed at the heart of the American hat industry is it?
My guess is that he just wanted to not get embarrassed about turnout like the last time.
I could believe that, but I think when he makes stuff up he then genuinely believes it himself, and his fans certainly will, so I'm not sure how bad it would have to have potentially been to embarrass him enough to get through to him.
"At least half of the 40 new hospitals pledged by Boris Johnson will not be built for many years, the Guardian has learned, in a move decried as “devastating” for staff and patients.
Labour will announce that many of the crumbling NHS hospitals in England that were due to be replaced by 2030 will not be completed according to the original timeframe.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, will blame the Conservatives for bequeathing Labour a huge infrastructure project that was budgeted only until this March and for which costs have soared to an estimated £30bn.
The announcement, likely to be made early next week"
Guardian exclusive tonight.
Take any initial government estimate and then multiply it by 3?
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.
My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?
That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader
Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers
But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?
Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
And is Farage awful? 10 years ago I'd have said of course. After Boris, Truss, and the likes of Williamson, Patel, Hancock, JRM at the heart of government, Farage doesn't stand out as clearly worse. I suspect he would govern similarly to Boris, enjoy a similar honeymoon period and a similar fall out by running out of MPs willing to bat for him.
He's pretty awful. I'd be horrified if he became PM. He's got some interesting and sometimes wise views, and I'm very happy he's part of day-to-day politics. Williamson is the only one of those that you list that I'd be less keen on to lead the country, although of course Truss has totally gone now.
Farage is a country mile better than Corbyn, and look at all the fools who voted for him.
How is Farage a “country mile better than Corbyn”?
Both are organisationally inept ideologues peddling populist film-flam.
Well.... I trust, if that's the word, Farage not to wreck the country - and I mean simply abandon it to the winds, more than I do Corbyn. Much more. Corbyn would happily screw everyone.
If Farage were actually to follow through with the sort of policies he talks about, the country would be in for a very painful economic restructuring. That’s not to say it would be impossible - plenty have done it around the world before - but it would not be an easy ride.
Yes. Should he become PM there's a lot of risk. The Tories gave us Boris and Truss - mix them up and filter out the good bits, and you get what's on offer from a Reform PM (Farage is better than the others in his party)
Having had the dubious pleasure of spending several hours drinking and talking with him I would give my absolutely fool proof insight.
He’s a bit of a one trick pony, or was. He’s not the most interesting man and very far from being a renaissance man. He’s a nice man. He’s polite and pleasant. He loves his vision of the UK, maybe really England. He’s not stupid. He probably sees himself as one of the stout yeoman of Agincourt (to hark to earlier posts). He thinks he would have been drinking with Hal and Falstaff. He wants, truly, Britain to be great.
I think he probably should have worked his way through Tory ranks but it was probably too much like hard work. He saw an opening and a lazy shortcut.
I think he is actually, by virtue of his beliefs and career background, one of the few politicians where if he had power would listen to people who know their shit about the economy and business even if it disagreed with easy statements he made to get elected.
He’s not and Orban or a Fico. He’s not Mosley, Le Pen, Tommy, Putin.
I don’t want reform governing, I want a strong Tory party with sensible economic and social ideas, but if the worst populist we get is Nige then we are very very lucky.
I’ve also met him and your mini biopic is on point in all respects - that’s Farage
It is truly ridiculous our childish politics regards him as some British Pinochet
When I was at junior school in South Birmingham after Birmingham City and way ahead of Villa ( Villa were in the 3rd Division) in numbers came United. Loads of kids had duffle bags with pictures of Best, Law or Charlton printed on them. I'd say Law was even more popular than Best on the duffle bag poll.
Dirty Leeds were the team of the era but everyone at my school hated dirty Leeds.
Oh. Which bit of south birmingham were you in?
I was dragged up in SW Brum - 1970s/early 80s.
Quite a few Baggies fans at the time.
Wythall/ Hollywood. I lived for 15 years (until 1977) just off the Alcester (Allsesster to you and me) Road near "Beckett's Island". I went to Woodrush High School.
There were three Baggies in my year. Boing, boing.
That's where the greatest pop group of all time are from, Duran Duran.
I was in the same top sets as Nick Bates (Rhodes) at Woodrush. My Mum knew Jean Taylor, Nigel (John) 's mum. I'm not sure I've mentioned that before...more than several dozen times.
I can't believe Nick Rhodes and John Taylor weren't their real names...
At school Rhodes was referred tol by one or two hard of thinking comedians as Master....
Imagine Taylor thought Nigel was an inappropriate name for a rockstar and now we have rockstar Prime Minister in waiting Nigel Farage. Everything is cyclical.
"At least half of the 40 new hospitals pledged by Boris Johnson will not be built for many years, the Guardian has learned, in a move decried as “devastating” for staff and patients.
Labour will announce that many of the crumbling NHS hospitals in England that were due to be replaced by 2030 will not be completed according to the original timeframe.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, will blame the Conservatives for bequeathing Labour a huge infrastructure project that was budgeted only until this March and for which costs have soared to an estimated £30bn.
The announcement, likely to be made early next week"
Guardian exclusive tonight.
I would like to try an experiment.
Fence off a section of the country. Say 10 miles square. Using the embassy thing, make it a piece of South Korea. Ask them to build something inside it. No Brits allowed.
Same for a dozen other countries that can do infrastructure.
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.
My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?
That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader
Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers
But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?
Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
And is Farage awful? 10 years ago I'd have said of course. After Boris, Truss, and the likes of Williamson, Patel, Hancock, JRM at the heart of government, Farage doesn't stand out as clearly worse. I suspect he would govern similarly to Boris, enjoy a similar honeymoon period and a similar fall out by running out of MPs willing to bat for him.
He's pretty awful. I'd be horrified if he became PM. He's got some interesting and sometimes wise views, and I'm very happy he's part of day-to-day politics. Williamson is the only one of those that you list that I'd be less keen on to lead the country, although of course Truss has totally gone now.
Farage is a country mile better than Corbyn, and look at all the fools who voted for him.
How is Farage a “country mile better than Corbyn”?
Both are organisationally inept ideologues peddling populist film-flam.
Well.... I trust, if that's the word, Farage not to wreck the country - and I mean simply abandon it to the winds, more than I do Corbyn. Much more. Corbyn would happily screw everyone.
If Farage were actually to follow through with the sort of policies he talks about, the country would be in for a very painful economic restructuring. That’s not to say it would be impossible - plenty have done it around the world before - but it would not be an easy ride.
Yes. Should he become PM there's a lot of risk. The Tories gave us Boris and Truss - mix them up and filter out the good bits, and you get what's on offer from a Reform PM (Farage is better than the others in his party)
Having had the dubious pleasure of spending several hours drinking and talking with him I would give my absolutely fool proof insight.
He’s a bit of a one trick pony, or was. He’s not the most interesting man and very far from being a renaissance man. He’s a nice man. He’s polite and pleasant. He loves his vision of the UK, maybe really England. He’s not stupid. He probably sees himself as one of the stout yeoman of Agincourt (to hark to earlier posts). He thinks he would have been drinking with Hal and Falstaff. He wants, truly, Britain to be great.
I think he probably should have worked his way through Tory ranks but it was probably too much like hard work. He saw an opening and a lazy shortcut.
I think he is actually, by virtue of his beliefs and career background, one of the few politicians where if he had power would listen to people who know their shit about the economy and business even if it disagreed with easy statements he made to get elected.
He’s not and Orban or a Fico. He’s not Mosley, Le Pen, Tommy, Putin.
I don’t want reform governing, I want a strong Tory party with sensible economic and social ideas, but if the worst populist we get is Nige then we are very very lucky.
I’ve also met him and your mini biopic is on point in all respects - that’s Farage
It is truly ridiculous our childish politics regards him as some British Pinochet
I don’t consider the path Farage took to be a particularly lazy one.
"At least half of the 40 new hospitals pledged by Boris Johnson will not be built for many years, the Guardian has learned, in a move decried as “devastating” for staff and patients.
Labour will announce that many of the crumbling NHS hospitals in England that were due to be replaced by 2030 will not be completed according to the original timeframe.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, will blame the Conservatives for bequeathing Labour a huge infrastructure project that was budgeted only until this March and for which costs have soared to an estimated £30bn.
The announcement, likely to be made early next week"
Guardian exclusive tonight.
Take any initial government estimate and then multiply it by 3?
Some years ago, there was a project to build/rebuild a local school. The bids came in, per sq meter, higher than the cost of digging luxury basements (probably highest construction and fit out costs you can do).
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.
My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?
That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader
Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers
But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?
Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
And is Farage awful? 10 years ago I'd have said of course. After Boris, Truss, and the likes of Williamson, Patel, Hancock, JRM at the heart of government, Farage doesn't stand out as clearly worse. I suspect he would govern similarly to Boris, enjoy a similar honeymoon period and a similar fall out by running out of MPs willing to bat for him.
He's pretty awful. I'd be horrified if he became PM. He's got some interesting and sometimes wise views, and I'm very happy he's part of day-to-day politics. Williamson is the only one of those that you list that I'd be less keen on to lead the country, although of course Truss has totally gone now.
Farage is a country mile better than Corbyn, and look at all the fools who voted for him.
How is Farage a “country mile better than Corbyn”?
Both are organisationally inept ideologues peddling populist film-flam.
Well.... I trust, if that's the word, Farage not to wreck the country - and I mean simply abandon it to the winds, more than I do Corbyn. Much more. Corbyn would happily screw everyone.
If Farage were actually to follow through with the sort of policies he talks about, the country would be in for a very painful economic restructuring. That’s not to say it would be impossible - plenty have done it around the world before - but it would not be an easy ride.
Yes. Should he become PM there's a lot of risk. The Tories gave us Boris and Truss - mix them up and filter out the good bits, and you get what's on offer from a Reform PM (Farage is better than the others in his party)
Having had the dubious pleasure of spending several hours drinking and talking with him I would give my absolutely fool proof insight.
He’s a bit of a one trick pony, or was. He’s not the most interesting man and very far from being a renaissance man. He’s a nice man. He’s polite and pleasant. He loves his vision of the UK, maybe really England. He’s not stupid. He probably sees himself as one of the stout yeoman of Agincourt (to hark to earlier posts). He thinks he would have been drinking with Hal and Falstaff. He wants, truly, Britain to be great.
I think he probably should have worked his way through Tory ranks but it was probably too much like hard work. He saw an opening and a lazy shortcut.
I think he is actually, by virtue of his beliefs and career background, one of the few politicians where if he had power would listen to people who know their shit about the economy and business even if it disagreed with easy statements he made to get elected.
He’s not and Orban or a Fico. He’s not Mosley, Le Pen, Tommy, Putin.
I don’t want reform governing, I want a strong Tory party with sensible economic and social ideas, but if the worst populist we get is Nige then we are very very lucky.
I’ve also met him and your mini biopic is on point in all respects - that’s Farage
It is truly ridiculous our childish politics regards him as some British Pinochet
I don't like plenty of the things about his politics over the years, but I do think he comes across as generally likeable and normal. That doesn't mean he would necessarily poll very well with everyone, but on a personal level he probably comes across ok.
A bit like with Corbyn if you steered clear of politics he is probably a pleasant enough old twee Englishman.
I've generally been a conservative all my life but couldn't bring myself to vote for Rishi (or anyone else, tom my shame First time not voting in my life pretty much). Honestly, I'm not seeing anything tempting about Kemi and I'm appalled by Reform and Trump. Is anyone of a similar mindset to em and thinks we need some kind of sensible party to vote for?
Ed Davey's LibDems?
While I don't disagree with everything he says or does, I'm not a natural lib dem. I voted Brexit in 2016 (long time ago now and I'm not sure it was necessarily he right thing to have done) but I think in the long run we're better off out. However, other than that I could consider them. My problem with them has always been that I've agreed with them up until a point in their manifesto that is completely incompatible with my views (varies depending on the year. I first voted in a general election at 2015, just too young for 2010). I'm pretty nostalgic for coalition Cameron tbh
I expect to still be hearing about this case in abotu 20 years at this rate.
I want to emphasise that I have no information about this case at all. But that sounds like a proceeds of crime application looking to secure assets in the event of a conviction.
"At least half of the 40 new hospitals pledged by Boris Johnson will not be built for many years, the Guardian has learned, in a move decried as “devastating” for staff and patients.
Labour will announce that many of the crumbling NHS hospitals in England that were due to be replaced by 2030 will not be completed according to the original timeframe.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, will blame the Conservatives for bequeathing Labour a huge infrastructure project that was budgeted only until this March and for which costs have soared to an estimated £30bn.
The announcement, likely to be made early next week"
I've generally been a conservative all my life but couldn't bring myself to vote for Rishi (or anyone else, tom my shame First time not voting in my life pretty much). Honestly, I'm not seeing anything tempting about Kemi and I'm appalled by Reform and Trump. Is anyone of a similar mindset to em and thinks we need some kind of sensible party to vote for?
Ed Davey's LibDems?
While I don't disagree with everything he says or does, I'm not a natural lib dem. I voted Brexit in 2016 (long time ago now and I'm not sure it was necessarily he right thing to have done) but I think in the long run we're better off out. However, other than that I could consider them. My problem with them has always been that I've agreed with them up until a point in their manifesto that is completely incompatible with my views (varies depending on the year. I first voted in a general election at 2015, just too young for 2010). I'm pretty nostalgic for coalition Cameron tbh
Well, that does sound rather pro-Starmer.
Welcome aboard.
Thanks for the welcome but unfortunately I thin you may have misread some of my sentiment. My non-voting certainly extended to not voting for Sir Starmer although I do have some support for the apparent reforms of Torsten Bell (assuming they happen)
I've generally been a conservative all my life but couldn't bring myself to vote for Rishi (or anyone else, tom my shame First time not voting in my life pretty much). Honestly, I'm not seeing anything tempting about Kemi and I'm appalled by Reform and Trump. Is anyone of a similar mindset to em and thinks we need some kind of sensible party to vote for?
Pretty much. I have to hope Kemi can do well otherwise there won't be a good choice - again - next time.
Would he have run if Biden had stood down earlier and allowed proper primary season.
We will never know now.
Secretary Pete Buttigieg @SecretaryPete · 1h As my time as Secretary of Transportation concludes, I’m proud of all we’ve accomplished: tens of thousands of infrastructure projects, millions of manufacturing and construction jobs, & stronger, more resilient communities across America. Thank you for this opportunity to serve.
I've generally been a conservative all my life but couldn't bring myself to vote for Rishi (or anyone else, tom my shame First time not voting in my life pretty much). Honestly, I'm not seeing anything tempting about Kemi and I'm appalled by Reform and Trump. Is anyone of a similar mindset to em and thinks we need some kind of sensible party to vote for?
Pretty much. I have to hope Kemi can do well otherwise there won't be a good choice - again - next time.
I was hoping for Penny (not for those reasons, my wife would get jealous). I think she could actually have united the country and got us moving forward. Also she's strong on defence which is a necessity these days
"At least half of the 40 new hospitals pledged by Boris Johnson will not be built for many years, the Guardian has learned, in a move decried as “devastating” for staff and patients.
Labour will announce that many of the crumbling NHS hospitals in England that were due to be replaced by 2030 will not be completed according to the original timeframe.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, will blame the Conservatives for bequeathing Labour a huge infrastructure project that was budgeted only until this March and for which costs have soared to an estimated £30bn.
The announcement, likely to be made early next week"
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.
My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?
That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader
Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers
But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?
Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
And is Farage awful? 10 years ago I'd have said of course. After Boris, Truss, and the likes of Williamson, Patel, Hancock, JRM at the heart of government, Farage doesn't stand out as clearly worse. I suspect he would govern similarly to Boris, enjoy a similar honeymoon period and a similar fall out by running out of MPs willing to bat for him.
He's pretty awful. I'd be horrified if he became PM. He's got some interesting and sometimes wise views, and I'm very happy he's part of day-to-day politics. Williamson is the only one of those that you list that I'd be less keen on to lead the country, although of course Truss has totally gone now.
Farage is a country mile better than Corbyn, and look at all the fools who voted for him.
How is Farage a “country mile better than Corbyn”?
Both are organisationally inept ideologues peddling populist film-flam.
Well.... I trust, if that's the word, Farage not to wreck the country - and I mean simply abandon it to the winds, more than I do Corbyn. Much more. Corbyn would happily screw everyone.
If Farage were actually to follow through with the sort of policies he talks about, the country would be in for a very painful economic restructuring. That’s not to say it would be impossible - plenty have done it around the world before - but it would not be an easy ride.
Yes. Should he become PM there's a lot of risk. The Tories gave us Boris and Truss - mix them up and filter out the good bits, and you get what's on offer from a Reform PM (Farage is better than the others in his party)
Having had the dubious pleasure of spending several hours drinking and talking with him I would give my absolutely fool proof insight.
He’s a bit of a one trick pony, or was. He’s not the most interesting man and very far from being a renaissance man. He’s a nice man. He’s polite and pleasant. He loves his vision of the UK, maybe really England. He’s not stupid. He probably sees himself as one of the stout yeoman of Agincourt (to hark to earlier posts). He thinks he would have been drinking with Hal and Falstaff. He wants, truly, Britain to be great.
I think he probably should have worked his way through Tory ranks but it was probably too much like hard work. He saw an opening and a lazy shortcut.
I think he is actually, by virtue of his beliefs and career background, one of the few politicians where if he had power would listen to people who know their shit about the economy and business even if it disagreed with easy statements he made to get elected.
He’s not and Orban or a Fico. He’s not Mosley, Le Pen, Tommy, Putin.
I don’t want reform governing, I want a strong Tory party with sensible economic and social ideas, but if the worst populist we get is Nige then we are very very lucky.
I’ve also met him and your mini biopic is on point in all respects - that’s Farage
It is truly ridiculous our childish politics regards him as some British Pinochet
I don't like plenty of the things about his politics over the years, but I do think he comes across as generally likeable and normal. That doesn't mean he would necessarily poll very well with everyone, but on a personal level he probably comes across ok.
A bit like with Corbyn if you steered clear of politics he is probably a pleasant enough old twee Englishman.
He very much comes across as "Arthur Daley" to me. Fine to share a nod and a pint with, but whatever you do - don't buy a 2nd-hand car from him.
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.
My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?
That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader
Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers
But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?
Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
And is Farage awful? 10 years ago I'd have said of course. After Boris, Truss, and the likes of Williamson, Patel, Hancock, JRM at the heart of government, Farage doesn't stand out as clearly worse. I suspect he would govern similarly to Boris, enjoy a similar honeymoon period and a similar fall out by running out of MPs willing to bat for him.
He's pretty awful. I'd be horrified if he became PM. He's got some interesting and sometimes wise views, and I'm very happy he's part of day-to-day politics. Williamson is the only one of those that you list that I'd be less keen on to lead the country, although of course Truss has totally gone now.
Farage is a country mile better than Corbyn, and look at all the fools who voted for him.
How is Farage a “country mile better than Corbyn”?
Both are organisationally inept ideologues peddling populist film-flam.
Well.... I trust, if that's the word, Farage not to wreck the country - and I mean simply abandon it to the winds, more than I do Corbyn. Much more. Corbyn would happily screw everyone.
If Farage were actually to follow through with the sort of policies he talks about, the country would be in for a very painful economic restructuring. That’s not to say it would be impossible - plenty have done it around the world before - but it would not be an easy ride.
Yes. Should he become PM there's a lot of risk. The Tories gave us Boris and Truss - mix them up and filter out the good bits, and you get what's on offer from a Reform PM (Farage is better than the others in his party)
Having had the dubious pleasure of spending several hours drinking and talking with him I would give my absolutely fool proof insight.
He’s a bit of a one trick pony, or was. He’s not the most interesting man and very far from being a renaissance man. He’s a nice man. He’s polite and pleasant. He loves his vision of the UK, maybe really England. He’s not stupid. He probably sees himself as one of the stout yeoman of Agincourt (to hark to earlier posts). He thinks he would have been drinking with Hal and Falstaff. He wants, truly, Britain to be great.
I think he probably should have worked his way through Tory ranks but it was probably too much like hard work. He saw an opening and a lazy shortcut.
I think he is actually, by virtue of his beliefs and career background, one of the few politicians where if he had power would listen to people who know their shit about the economy and business even if it disagreed with easy statements he made to get elected.
He’s not and Orban or a Fico. He’s not Mosley, Le Pen, Tommy, Putin.
I don’t want reform governing, I want a strong Tory party with sensible economic and social ideas, but if the worst populist we get is Nige then we are very very lucky.
I’ve also met him and your mini biopic is on point in all respects - that’s Farage
It is truly ridiculous our childish politics regards him as some British Pinochet
I don't like plenty of the things about his politics over the years, but I do think he comes across as generally likeable and normal. That doesn't mean he would necessarily poll very well with everyone, but on a personal level he probably comes across ok.
A bit like with Corbyn if you steered clear of politics he is probably a pleasant enough old twee Englishman.
Farage is not particularly racist. He’s ethnocentric, at most, which is a very different thing
He’s way less racist, for example, than many of the raging, outright anti-Semites on the left and on the Labour benches
He would prefer Britain to keep its historic demographics, if possible, which apparently makes him Hitler but is also the view of the majority of Britons, I suspect
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.
My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?
That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader
Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers
But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?
Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
And is Farage awful? 10 years ago I'd have said of course. After Boris, Truss, and the likes of Williamson, Patel, Hancock, JRM at the heart of government, Farage doesn't stand out as clearly worse. I suspect he would govern similarly to Boris, enjoy a similar honeymoon period and a similar fall out by running out of MPs willing to bat for him.
He's pretty awful. I'd be horrified if he became PM. He's got some interesting and sometimes wise views, and I'm very happy he's part of day-to-day politics. Williamson is the only one of those that you list that I'd be less keen on to lead the country, although of course Truss has totally gone now.
Farage is a country mile better than Corbyn, and look at all the fools who voted for him.
How is Farage a “country mile better than Corbyn”?
Both are organisationally inept ideologues peddling populist film-flam.
Well.... I trust, if that's the word, Farage not to wreck the country - and I mean simply abandon it to the winds, more than I do Corbyn. Much more. Corbyn would happily screw everyone.
If Farage were actually to follow through with the sort of policies he talks about, the country would be in for a very painful economic restructuring. That’s not to say it would be impossible - plenty have done it around the world before - but it would not be an easy ride.
Yes. Should he become PM there's a lot of risk. The Tories gave us Boris and Truss - mix them up and filter out the good bits, and you get what's on offer from a Reform PM (Farage is better than the others in his party)
Having had the dubious pleasure of spending several hours drinking and talking with him I would give my absolutely fool proof insight.
He’s a bit of a one trick pony, or was. He’s not the most interesting man and very far from being a renaissance man. He’s a nice man. He’s polite and pleasant. He loves his vision of the UK, maybe really England. He’s not stupid. He probably sees himself as one of the stout yeoman of Agincourt (to hark to earlier posts). He thinks he would have been drinking with Hal and Falstaff. He wants, truly, Britain to be great.
I think he probably should have worked his way through Tory ranks but it was probably too much like hard work. He saw an opening and a lazy shortcut.
I think he is actually, by virtue of his beliefs and career background, one of the few politicians where if he had power would listen to people who know their shit about the economy and business even if it disagreed with easy statements he made to get elected.
He’s not and Orban or a Fico. He’s not Mosley, Le Pen, Tommy, Putin.
I don’t want reform governing, I want a strong Tory party with sensible economic and social ideas, but if the worst populist we get is Nige then we are very very lucky.
I’ve also met him and your mini biopic is on point in all respects - that’s Farage
It is truly ridiculous our childish politics regards him as some British Pinochet
I don't like plenty of the things about his politics over the years, but I do think he comes across as generally likeable and normal. That doesn't mean he would necessarily poll very well with everyone, but on a personal level he probably comes across ok.
A bit like with Corbyn if you steered clear of politics he is probably a pleasant enough old twee Englishman.
Farage is not particularly racist. He’s ethnocentric, at most, which is a very different thing
He’s way less racist, for example, than many of the raging, outright anti-Semites on the left and on the Labour benches
He would prefer Britain to keep its historic demographics, if possible, which apparently makes him Hitler but is also the view of the majority of Britons, I suspect
He is kryptonite to the middle classes though (I could be wrong here - I consider myself middle class and naively might be assuming other people think like me)
Would he have run if Biden had stood down earlier and allowed proper primary season.
We will never know now.
Secretary Pete Buttigieg @SecretaryPete · 1h As my time as Secretary of Transportation concludes, I’m proud of all we’ve accomplished: tens of thousands of infrastructure projects, millions of manufacturing and construction jobs, & stronger, more resilient communities across America. Thank you for this opportunity to serve.
Would he have run if Biden had stood down earlier and allowed proper primary season.
We will never know now.
Secretary Pete Buttigieg @SecretaryPete · 1h As my time as Secretary of Transportation concludes, I’m proud of all we’ve accomplished: tens of thousands of infrastructure projects, millions of manufacturing and construction jobs, & stronger, more resilient communities across America. Thank you for this opportunity to serve.
No, he wants the nomination in 2028, he wanted Harris to take the hit and be the loser when Trump was winning his second term not him
Are you saying that you think Trump would have won against any Democrat candidate in 2024? I disagree with that. I think someone who could have put across a positive vision for the USA could have beaten Trump (shame that didn't happen)
I've generally been a conservative all my life but couldn't bring myself to vote for Rishi (or anyone else, tom my shame First time not voting in my life pretty much). Honestly, I'm not seeing anything tempting about Kemi and I'm appalled by Reform and Trump. Is anyone of a similar mindset to em and thinks we need some kind of sensible party to vote for?
Pretty much. I have to hope Kemi can do well otherwise there won't be a good choice - again - next time.
I was hoping for Penny (not for those reasons, my wife would get jealous). I think she could actually have united the country and got us moving forward. Also she's strong on defence which is a necessity these days
I think of my two "unknown quantities" of the previous (previous-previous?) governments, Penny would have been my choice if I had a say. Kemi was unknown-ish, but... an empty [?] slot. Penny had stood out for being able to hold an old metal sword up and at least not wobble at PMQ-esque events.
It is, I admit, not the deepest analysis - but this is where were are. A vacant slot with an odd fixation on toilets, or woman with a heavy stick.
I've generally been a conservative all my life but couldn't bring myself to vote for Rishi (or anyone else, tom my shame First time not voting in my life pretty much). Honestly, I'm not seeing anything tempting about Kemi and I'm appalled by Reform and Trump. Is anyone of a similar mindset to em and thinks we need some kind of sensible party to vote for?
Pretty much. I have to hope Kemi can do well otherwise there won't be a good choice - again - next time.
I was hoping for Penny (not for those reasons, my wife would get jealous). I think she could actually have united the country and got us moving forward. Also she's strong on defence which is a necessity these days
I think of my two "unknown quantities" of the previous (previous-previous?) governments, Penny would have been my choice if I had a say. Kemi was unknown-ish, but... an empty [?] slot. Penny had stood out for being able to hold an old metal sword up and at least not wobble at PMQ-esque events.
It is, I admit, not the deepest analysis - but this is where were are. A vacant slot with an odd fixation on toilets, or woman with a heavy stick.
She was my local MP before I moved and I (like a lot of local people people) had a very high opinion of her. Before anyone says it, I know this didn't extend to actually re-electing her. I thin she'd have been a lovely "blank slate" to imprint on generally liberal Cameron/Clegg continuity government
JUST IN: Bill Gates says he was very “impressed” by Trump during their three hour dinner together.
Everyone is falling in line. Interesting.
Gates said he and the president elect had a very “intriguing” conversation about global health.
“[Trump was] energized and looking forward to helping to drive innovation. You know, I was frankly impressed with how well he showed a lot of interest in the issues I brought up.”
Ridiculous to change one's view of Trump just because he won the election.
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.
My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?
That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader
Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers
But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?
Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
And is Farage awful? 10 years ago I'd have said of course. After Boris, Truss, and the likes of Williamson, Patel, Hancock, JRM at the heart of government, Farage doesn't stand out as clearly worse. I suspect he would govern similarly to Boris, enjoy a similar honeymoon period and a similar fall out by running out of MPs willing to bat for him.
He's pretty awful. I'd be horrified if he became PM. He's got some interesting and sometimes wise views, and I'm very happy he's part of day-to-day politics. Williamson is the only one of those that you list that I'd be less keen on to lead the country, although of course Truss has totally gone now.
Farage is a country mile better than Corbyn, and look at all the fools who voted for him.
How is Farage a “country mile better than Corbyn”?
Both are organisationally inept ideologues peddling populist film-flam.
Well.... I trust, if that's the word, Farage not to wreck the country - and I mean simply abandon it to the winds, more than I do Corbyn. Much more. Corbyn would happily screw everyone.
If Farage were actually to follow through with the sort of policies he talks about, the country would be in for a very painful economic restructuring. That’s not to say it would be impossible - plenty have done it around the world before - but it would not be an easy ride.
Yes. Should he become PM there's a lot of risk. The Tories gave us Boris and Truss - mix them up and filter out the good bits, and you get what's on offer from a Reform PM (Farage is better than the others in his party)
Having had the dubious pleasure of spending several hours drinking and talking with him I would give my absolutely fool proof insight.
He’s a bit of a one trick pony, or was. He’s not the most interesting man and very far from being a renaissance man. He’s a nice man. He’s polite and pleasant. He loves his vision of the UK, maybe really England. He’s not stupid. He probably sees himself as one of the stout yeoman of Agincourt (to hark to earlier posts). He thinks he would have been drinking with Hal and Falstaff. He wants, truly, Britain to be great.
I think he probably should have worked his way through Tory ranks but it was probably too much like hard work. He saw an opening and a lazy shortcut.
I think he is actually, by virtue of his beliefs and career background, one of the few politicians where if he had power would listen to people who know their shit about the economy and business even if it disagreed with easy statements he made to get elected.
He’s not and Orban or a Fico. He’s not Mosley, Le Pen, Tommy, Putin.
I don’t want reform governing, I want a strong Tory party with sensible economic and social ideas, but if the worst populist we get is Nige then we are very very lucky.
I’ve also met him and your mini biopic is on point in all respects - that’s Farage
It is truly ridiculous our childish politics regards him as some British Pinochet
I don't like plenty of the things about his politics over the years, but I do think he comes across as generally likeable and normal. That doesn't mean he would necessarily poll very well with everyone, but on a personal level he probably comes across ok.
A bit like with Corbyn if you steered clear of politics he is probably a pleasant enough old twee Englishman.
Farage is not particularly racist. He’s ethnocentric, at most, which is a very different thing
He’s way less racist, for example, than many of the raging, outright anti-Semites on the left and on the Labour benches
He would prefer Britain to keep its historic demographics, if possible, which apparently makes him Hitler but is also the view of the majority of Britons, I suspect
I don't want to change the world I'm not looking for a new England
JUST IN: Bill Gates says he was very “impressed” by Trump during their three hour dinner together.
Everyone is falling in line. Interesting.
Gates said he and the president elect had a very “intriguing” conversation about global health.
“[Trump was] energized and looking forward to helping to drive innovation. You know, I was frankly impressed with how well he showed a lot of interest in the issues I brought up.”
Ridiculous to change one's view of Trump just because he won the election.
Very disappoint. Particularly Bill Gates' apparent subservience to Trumps' pick of Kennedy as a known anti Vaxxer when his mission i n life post-Microsoft has been to vaccinate the work. Honestly can;t say it better than Andy. Pathetic.
JUST IN: Bill Gates says he was very “impressed” by Trump during their three hour dinner together.
Everyone is falling in line. Interesting.
Gates said he and the president elect had a very “intriguing” conversation about global health.
“[Trump was] energized and looking forward to helping to drive innovation. You know, I was frankly impressed with how well he showed a lot of interest in the issues I brought up.”
Ridiculous to change one's view of Trump just because he won the election.
Watch the bit of Games of Thrones where a couple of chaps get offered the choice of bending the knee or getting cremated by dragon.
JUST IN: Bill Gates says he was very “impressed” by Trump during their three hour dinner together.
Everyone is falling in line. Interesting.
Gates said he and the president elect had a very “intriguing” conversation about global health.
“[Trump was] energized and looking forward to helping to drive innovation. You know, I was frankly impressed with how well he showed a lot of interest in the issues I brought up.”
Ridiculous to change one's view of Trump just because he won the election.
I get people doing that. Have to adjust to the new normal, and just as with his first term some people will fool themselves about what kind of guy he is. What's more irritating is some people acting like anyone predicting Harris would win must be some kind of blind fool because obviously Trump was going to win.
I did predict Trump would win (though I thought it'd be closer), and he managed it relatively comfortably in the critical states, but it was still a matter of a few percent here and there, unless someone was genuinely ignoring he at the very least had a good chance, then merely predicting the outcome wrong was not an embarrassment.
Would he have run if Biden had stood down earlier and allowed proper primary season.
We will never know now.
Secretary Pete Buttigieg @SecretaryPete · 1h As my time as Secretary of Transportation concludes, I’m proud of all we’ve accomplished: tens of thousands of infrastructure projects, millions of manufacturing and construction jobs, & stronger, more resilient communities across America. Thank you for this opportunity to serve.
No, he wants the nomination in 2028, he wanted Harris to take the hit and be the loser when Trump was winning his second term not him
Are you saying that you think Trump would have won against any Democrat candidate in 2024? I disagree with that. I think someone who could have put across a positive vision for the USA could have beaten Trump (shame that didn't happen)
Pretty much given the cost of living on election day, after all Trump won the popular vote this time too
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.
My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?
That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader
Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers
But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?
Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
And is Farage awful? 10 years ago I'd have said of course. After Boris, Truss, and the likes of Williamson, Patel, Hancock, JRM at the heart of government, Farage doesn't stand out as clearly worse. I suspect he would govern similarly to Boris, enjoy a similar honeymoon period and a similar fall out by running out of MPs willing to bat for him.
He's pretty awful. I'd be horrified if he became PM. He's got some interesting and sometimes wise views, and I'm very happy he's part of day-to-day politics. Williamson is the only one of those that you list that I'd be less keen on to lead the country, although of course Truss has totally gone now.
Farage is a country mile better than Corbyn, and look at all the fools who voted for him.
How is Farage a “country mile better than Corbyn”?
Both are organisationally inept ideologues peddling populist film-flam.
Well.... I trust, if that's the word, Farage not to wreck the country - and I mean simply abandon it to the winds, more than I do Corbyn. Much more. Corbyn would happily screw everyone.
If Farage were actually to follow through with the sort of policies he talks about, the country would be in for a very painful economic restructuring. That’s not to say it would be impossible - plenty have done it around the world before - but it would not be an easy ride.
Yes. Should he become PM there's a lot of risk. The Tories gave us Boris and Truss - mix them up and filter out the good bits, and you get what's on offer from a Reform PM (Farage is better than the others in his party)
Having had the dubious pleasure of spending several hours drinking and talking with him I would give my absolutely fool proof insight.
He’s a bit of a one trick pony, or was. He’s not the most interesting man and very far from being a renaissance man. He’s a nice man. He’s polite and pleasant. He loves his vision of the UK, maybe really England. He’s not stupid. He probably sees himself as one of the stout yeoman of Agincourt (to hark to earlier posts). He thinks he would have been drinking with Hal and Falstaff. He wants, truly, Britain to be great.
I think he probably should have worked his way through Tory ranks but it was probably too much like hard work. He saw an opening and a lazy shortcut.
I think he is actually, by virtue of his beliefs and career background, one of the few politicians where if he had power would listen to people who know their shit about the economy and business even if it disagreed with easy statements he made to get elected.
He’s not and Orban or a Fico. He’s not Mosley, Le Pen, Tommy, Putin.
I don’t want reform governing, I want a strong Tory party with sensible economic and social ideas, but if the worst populist we get is Nige then we are very very lucky.
I’ve also met him and your mini biopic is on point in all respects - that’s Farage
It is truly ridiculous our childish politics regards him as some British Pinochet
I don't like plenty of the things about his politics over the years, but I do think he comes across as generally likeable and normal. That doesn't mean he would necessarily poll very well with everyone, but on a personal level he probably comes across ok.
A bit like with Corbyn if you steered clear of politics he is probably a pleasant enough old twee Englishman.
Farage is not particularly racist. He’s ethnocentric, at most, which is a very different thing
He’s way less racist, for example, than many of the raging, outright anti-Semites on the left and on the Labour benches
He would prefer Britain to keep its historic demographics, if possible, which apparently makes him Hitler but is also the view of the majority of Britons, I suspect
I don't want to change the world I'm not looking for a new England
JUST IN: Bill Gates says he was very “impressed” by Trump during their three hour dinner together.
Everyone is falling in line. Interesting.
Gates said he and the president elect had a very “intriguing” conversation about global health.
“[Trump was] energized and looking forward to helping to drive innovation. You know, I was frankly impressed with how well he showed a lot of interest in the issues I brought up.”
Ridiculous to change one's view of Trump just because he won the election.
But... Is it really bending the knee based on that clip?
Gates took a load of global health issues like polio to Trump and they had apparently a three hour chat and dinner with him and Wiles, Chief of Staff; and Gates talked them through these issues across the world. And Trump seemed engaged and energised.
There are way way more bended knees than this.
Perhaps because Gates is, at the end of the day, out of the Tech Great Game unlike say Bezos.
JUST IN: Bill Gates says he was very “impressed” by Trump during their three hour dinner together.
Everyone is falling in line. Interesting.
Gates said he and the president elect had a very “intriguing” conversation about global health.
“[Trump was] energized and looking forward to helping to drive innovation. You know, I was frankly impressed with how well he showed a lot of interest in the issues I brought up.”
Ridiculous to change one's view of Trump just because he won the election.
But... Is it really bending the knee based on that clip?
Gates took a load of global health issues like polio to Trump and they had apparently a three hour chat and dinner with him and Wiles, Chief of Staff; and Gates talked them through these issues across the world. And Trump seemed engaged and energised.
There are way way more bended knees than this.
Perhaps because Gates is, at the end of the day, out of the Tech Great Game unlike say Bezos.
Hopefully Mr Kennedy bends his knee to established medical knowledge with regard to vaccines or we're going to have some issues.
JUST IN: Bill Gates says he was very “impressed” by Trump during their three hour dinner together.
Everyone is falling in line. Interesting.
Gates said he and the president elect had a very “intriguing” conversation about global health.
“[Trump was] energized and looking forward to helping to drive innovation. You know, I was frankly impressed with how well he showed a lot of interest in the issues I brought up.”
Ridiculous to change one's view of Trump just because he won the election.
But... Is it really bending the knee based on that clip?
Gates took a load of global health issues like polio to Trump and they had apparently a three hour chat and dinner with him and Wiles, Chief of Staff; and Gates talked them through these issues across the world. And Trump seemed engaged and energised.
There are way way more bended knees than this.
Perhaps because Gates is, at the end of the day, out of the Tech Great Game unlike say Bezos.
Hopefully Mr Kennedy bends his knee to established medical knowledge with regard to vaccines or we're going to have some issues.
America already has issues under Biden with the bird flu spread.
This is a fucking disaster coming at us like a slow car crash.
JUST IN: Bill Gates says he was very “impressed” by Trump during their three hour dinner together.
Everyone is falling in line. Interesting.
Gates said he and the president elect had a very “intriguing” conversation about global health.
“[Trump was] energized and looking forward to helping to drive innovation. You know, I was frankly impressed with how well he showed a lot of interest in the issues I brought up.”
Ridiculous to change one's view of Trump just because he won the election.
But... Is it really bending the knee based on that clip?
Gates took a load of global health issues like polio to Trump and they had apparently a three hour chat and dinner with him and Wiles, Chief of Staff; and Gates talked them through these issues across the world. And Trump seemed engaged and energised.
There are way way more bended knees than this.
Perhaps because Gates is, at the end of the day, out of the Tech Great Game unlike say Bezos.
Hopefully Mr Kennedy bends his knee to established medical knowledge with regard to vaccines or we're going to have some issues.
America already has issues under Biden with the bird flu spread.
This is a fucking disaster coming at us like a slow car crash.
As a bird owner, I hope it's not going to be as bad as you say.
And so, the gradual, at times glacial, disillusionment with Trump 2.0 begins.
Who knows how many more individual Americans he will have pissed off by 2028?
It will be a lot.
Ron Filipkowski @RonFilipkowski · 1h MAGA in DC being told that Trump just said the inaugur will be inside: “So we’re not gonna see it in person? I don’t like it. We came all the way from OK. We might as well stayed home & watched it on TV. It sucks. We have farms. We don’t get to not feed the cows cause it’s cold.”
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.
My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?
That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader
Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers
But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?
Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
And is Farage awful? 10 years ago I'd have said of course. After Boris, Truss, and the likes of Williamson, Patel, Hancock, JRM at the heart of government, Farage doesn't stand out as clearly worse. I suspect he would govern similarly to Boris, enjoy a similar honeymoon period and a similar fall out by running out of MPs willing to bat for him.
He's pretty awful. I'd be horrified if he became PM. He's got some interesting and sometimes wise views, and I'm very happy he's part of day-to-day politics. Williamson is the only one of those that you list that I'd be less keen on to lead the country, although of course Truss has totally gone now.
Farage is a country mile better than Corbyn, and look at all the fools who voted for him.
How is Farage a “country mile better than Corbyn”?
Both are organisationally inept ideologues peddling populist film-flam.
Well.... I trust, if that's the word, Farage not to wreck the country - and I mean simply abandon it to the winds, more than I do Corbyn. Much more. Corbyn would happily screw everyone.
If Farage were actually to follow through with the sort of policies he talks about, the country would be in for a very painful economic restructuring. That’s not to say it would be impossible - plenty have done it around the world before - but it would not be an easy ride.
Yes. Should he become PM there's a lot of risk. The Tories gave us Boris and Truss - mix them up and filter out the good bits, and you get what's on offer from a Reform PM (Farage is better than the others in his party)
Having had the dubious pleasure of spending several hours drinking and talking with him I would give my absolutely fool proof insight.
He’s a bit of a one trick pony, or was. He’s not the most interesting man and very far from being a renaissance man. He’s a nice man. He’s polite and pleasant. He loves his vision of the UK, maybe really England. He’s not stupid. He probably sees himself as one of the stout yeoman of Agincourt (to hark to earlier posts). He thinks he would have been drinking with Hal and Falstaff. He wants, truly, Britain to be great.
I think he probably should have worked his way through Tory ranks but it was probably too much like hard work. He saw an opening and a lazy shortcut.
I think he is actually, by virtue of his beliefs and career background, one of the few politicians where if he had power would listen to people who know their shit about the economy and business even if it disagreed with easy statements he made to get elected.
He’s not and Orban or a Fico. He’s not Mosley, Le Pen, Tommy, Putin.
I don’t want reform governing, I want a strong Tory party with sensible economic and social ideas, but if the worst populist we get is Nige then we are very very lucky.
I’ve also met him and your mini biopic is on point in all respects - that’s Farage
It is truly ridiculous our childish politics regards him as some British Pinochet
I don't like plenty of the things about his politics over the years, but I do think he comes across as generally likeable and normal. That doesn't mean he would necessarily poll very well with everyone, but on a personal level he probably comes across ok.
A bit like with Corbyn if you steered clear of politics he is probably a pleasant enough old twee Englishman.
Farage is not particularly racist. He’s ethnocentric, at most, which is a very different thing
He’s way less racist, for example, than many of the raging, outright anti-Semites on the left and on the Labour benches
He would prefer Britain to keep its historic demographics, if possible, which apparently makes him Hitler but is also the view of the majority of Britons, I suspect
Not according to various House Masters at Dulwich College.
Comments
I just, with no trace of irony, wrote the phrase "no deal is better than a bad deal".
I hope you're all proud of me.
(gd&r)
Ironically, that certainly seems to have been Johnson's view.
Thinking medium term here.
https://www.google.com/maps/@39.9541191,-75.1902071,3a,75y,192.55h,117.43t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1s09jfS6Wyp34g86PzU0Ubvg!2e0!6shttps://streetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com/v1/thumbnail?cb_client=maps_sv.tactile&w=900&h=600&pitch=-27.432501670857704&panoid=09jfS6Wyp34g86PzU0Ubvg&yaw=192.5548393782003!7i16384!8i8192?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI1MDExNC4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw==
Last time I was there someone had put post it notes in their window spelling out "Epstein did not kill himself"
https://ecfr.eu/publication/alone-in-a-trumpian-world-the-eu-and-global-public-opinion-after-the-us-elections/
interesting
Thou called, Obadiah?
Imagine Taylor thought Nigel was an inappropriate name for a rockstar and now we have rockstar Prime Minister in waiting Nigel Farage. Everything is cyclical.
The point is that whilst I’m not a fan of Nigel, and disagree with policies or pronouncements, I’m also able to tell he’s actually a fairly nice, decent man at heart.
Most people are. I doubt there is anyone here who wouldn’t help another PBer in trouble regardless of their political beliefs. We banter and disagree but we can also see good and fun things in each other.
Farage isn't a monster, he’s a pretty ordinary man in some ways, you might even enjoy a drink with him.
It’s always better to acknowledge the good in your opponents than demonise them.
I never found out whether this was true or not.
On the city tour open topped bus the guide came around and introduced himself to the punters. When we said we were from Wales he practiced his perfect fluent Welsh that he had learned at his Welsh Presbyterian church on two non-Welsh speakers. It's a small World after all.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3e18qylq5do
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSkCc3iO9qA
https://x.com/hgmaassen/status/1880376650166096183
Suzi Quattro, Jimi Hendrix and Suzanne Vega.
© Jennifer Saunders
I've generally been a conservative all my life but couldn't bring myself to vote for Rishi (or anyone else, tom my shame
First time not voting in my life pretty much). Honestly, I'm not seeing anything tempting
about Kemi and I'm appalled by Reform and Trump. Is anyone of a similar mindset to em and thinks we need some kind of sensible party to vote for?
Solid.
Let's hope there is an inner circle of hell reserved only for Putin.
https://news.sky.com/story/sundays-national-newspaper-front-pages-12427754
If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border, which side do you bury the survivors?
As to your question no. Perhaps it’s time to start one?
Granted, no party is ideologically 100% consistent, so you get some broad ranges in most parties, but what are the dealbreakers for Lib Dem hood I wonder.
Rock and Roll
My guess is that he just wanted to not get embarrassed about turnout like the last time.
Labour will announce that many of the crumbling NHS hospitals in England that were due to be replaced by 2030 will not be completed according to the original timeframe.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, will blame the Conservatives for bequeathing Labour a huge infrastructure project that was budgeted only until this March and for which costs have soared to an estimated £30bn.
The announcement, likely to be made early next week"
Guardian exclusive tonight.
It is truly ridiculous our childish politics regards him as some British Pinochet
EXC: Nicola Sturgeon’s husband Peter Murrell has been banned by the Lord Advocate from selling any properties after Operation Branchform charges.
https://x.com/paulhutcheon/status/1880389797195526298
Fence off a section of the country. Say 10 miles square. Using the embassy thing, make it a piece of South Korea. Ask them to build something inside it. No Brits allowed.
Same for a dozen other countries that can do infrastructure.
Compare results.
https://www.npr.org/2025/01/17/nx-s1-5264378/biden-era-national-archivist-constitution
A bit like with Corbyn if you steered clear of politics he is probably a pleasant enough old twee Englishman.
Welcome aboard.
Byron Donalds @ByronDonalds
YOU did the work.
YOU knocked the doors.
YOU made the phone calls.
YOU talked to friends/family.
YOU showed-up for America on 11/5.
And in 3 days, YOUR work will become REALITY.
WE are the greatest political movement in American history and we couldn't have done it without you.
https://x.com/ByronDonalds/status/1880292406039572578
Pass the sick bucket Jeeves.
Reagan 40
Bush sr 41
Clinton 42
Bush jr 43
Obama 44
Trump 1st term 45
Biden 46
Trump 2nd term 47
https://www.nao.org.uk/reports/progress-with-the-new-hospital-programme/
https://www.accountancydaily.co/private-school-parents-secure-first-legal-win
We will never know now.
Secretary Pete Buttigieg
@SecretaryPete
·
1h
As my time as Secretary of Transportation concludes, I’m proud of all we’ve accomplished: tens of thousands of infrastructure projects, millions of manufacturing and construction jobs, & stronger, more resilient communities across America. Thank you for this opportunity to serve.
https://x.com/SecretaryPete/status/1880370832909742099
Am I a cynic to think this will happen on Trump 2.0 day and so be conveniently drowned out by the Orange One???
He’s way less racist, for example, than many of the raging, outright anti-Semites on the left and on the Labour benches
He would prefer Britain to keep its historic demographics, if possible, which apparently makes him Hitler but is also the view of the majority of Britons, I suspect
It is, I admit, not the deepest analysis - but this is where were are. A vacant slot with an odd fixation on toilets, or woman with a heavy stick.
I'm not looking for a new England
I did predict Trump would win (though I thought it'd be closer), and he managed it relatively comfortably in the critical states, but it was still a matter of a few percent here and there, unless someone was genuinely ignoring he at the very least had a good chance, then merely predicting the outcome wrong was not an embarrassment.
Gates took a load of global health issues like polio to Trump and they had apparently a three hour chat and dinner with him and Wiles, Chief of Staff; and Gates talked them through these issues across the world. And Trump seemed engaged and energised.
There are way way more bended knees than this.
Perhaps because Gates is, at the end of the day, out of the Tech Great Game unlike say Bezos.
This is a fucking disaster coming at us like a slow car crash.
The decision came after hours of discussions that continued late into the night. Two far-right ministers voted against the deal.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg44dkz551o
Who knows how many more individual Americans he will have pissed off by 2028?
It will be a lot.
Ron Filipkowski
@RonFilipkowski
·
1h
MAGA in DC being told that Trump just said the inaugur will be inside: “So we’re not gonna see it in person? I don’t like it. We came all the way from OK. We might as well stayed home & watched it on TV. It sucks. We have farms. We don’t get to not feed the cows cause it’s cold.”
https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1880382408496988293
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/live/cn087j0p958t#player
A smiling assassin.