Shock election forecast: if Reform and the Tories tie on 31% and Labour sink to the teens, we could have a result like this with Reform 73 short of a majority:
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.
My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?
That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader
Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers
But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?
Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
And is Farage awful? 10 years ago I'd have said of course. After Boris, Truss, and the likes of Williamson, Patel, Hancock, JRM at the heart of government, Farage doesn't stand out as clearly worse. I suspect he would govern similarly to Boris, enjoy a similar honeymoon period and a similar fall out by running out of MPs willing to bat for him.
He's pretty awful. I'd be horrified if he became PM. He's got some interesting and sometimes wise views, and I'm very happy he's part of day-to-day politics. Williamson is the only one of those that you list that I'd be less keen on to lead the country, although of course Truss has totally gone now.
Farage is a country mile better than Corbyn, and look at all the fools who voted for him.
I'm sure there are some people who will hate Farage, just as some people who hate all the others above including Corbyn. Some hate Starmer and find him awful. I just don't think it will be two thirds of the country finding him awful (until he has been in charge for a bit).
It's not just Farage though. We don't have a presidential system.
Who would be on a Reform Governments front bench?
Again, who would be on the Conservative front bench? Jenrick, Patel and Cleverly are apparently the cream of the crop.
They may be rubbish, but they are at least known quantities with experience of politics and government.
Yeah, that is not going to cut it in terms of getting Labour and LDs voting Conservative to keep Reform out.
Also if Reform are looking like winning, a chunk of the Conservative shadow cabinet will end up standing for Reform.
Reform will pick up candidates by recruiting from other parties, mostly, but not exclusively, the Conservatives, rather than developing them via councillors and PPCs. A bit like the UK generally.
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.
My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?
That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader
Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers
But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?
Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
And is Farage awful? 10 years ago I'd have said of course. After Boris, Truss, and the likes of Williamson, Patel, Hancock, JRM at the heart of government, Farage doesn't stand out as clearly worse. I suspect he would govern similarly to Boris, enjoy a similar honeymoon period and a similar fall out by running out of MPs willing to bat for him.
He's pretty awful. I'd be horrified if he became PM. He's got some interesting and sometimes wise views, and I'm very happy he's part of day-to-day politics. Williamson is the only one of those that you list that I'd be less keen on to lead the country, although of course Truss has totally gone now.
Farage is a country mile better than Corbyn, and look at all the fools who voted for him.
I'm sure there are some people who will hate Farage, just as some people who hate all the others above including Corbyn. Some hate Starmer and find him awful. I just don't think it will be two thirds of the country finding him awful (until he has been in charge for a bit).
It's not just Farage though. We don't have a presidential system.
Who would be on a Reform Governments front bench?
Again, who would be on the Conservative front bench? Jenrick, Patel and Cleverly are apparently the cream of the crop.
They may be rubbish, but they are at least known quantities with experience of politics and government.
Yeah, that is not going to cut it in terms of getting Labour and LDs voting Conservative to keep Reform out.
Also if Reform are looking like winning, a chunk of the Conservative shadow cabinet will end up standing for Reform.
Reform will pick up candidates by recruiting from other parties, mostly, but not exclusively, the Conservatives, rather than developing them via councillors and PPCs. A bit like the UK generally.
The plague of 'career' but entirely useless MPs does rather play into their hand.
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.
My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?
That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader
Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers
But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?
Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
Badenoch or A.N. Other Tory if she’s replaced. My argument is that if Reform turf Labour out across the board in their heartlands then the Tories will be the only viable alternative so will gain by default unless they actively alienate people between now and then.
If the Tories are going to be the "anyone but Farage" party, in the context of a Labour implosion and with an emphasis on competence, they will probably need a less contentious leader. That's why, if Kemi doesn't shape up, a Cleverly/Tugendhat leadership would be smart, as it would also pull the rug from under the LibDems.
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
Pathetic. I thought Trump was bring the 'warrior class' back to Washington?
Not cold warriors, though.
There is a bizarre thing in American politics for politicians not wearing suitable clothes in cold weather.
They joked about several times on The West Wing.
Wikipedia, Jan 20th 2025:
"Donald J Trump's term of office lasted all of five minutes before he succumbed to the bitter cold of inauguration day having refused repeatedly his wife's requests that he wear a vest and a decent overcoat and not just a MAGA cap."
Law Best and Charlton. All gone. Greatest forward line in English football history. Made me a Man U supporter as a kid which was great in middle age, not so much these days.
Law Best and Charlton. All gone. Greatest forward line in English football history. Made me a Man U supporter as a kid which was great in middle age, not so much these days.
Scored for Man City to relegate Utd. Didn't celebrate.
Law Best and Charlton. All gone. Greatest forward line in English football history. Made me a Man U supporter as a kid which was great in middle age, not so much these days.
Scored for Man City to relegate Utd. Didn't celebrate.
Yeah, he was a class act. Up there with Dalgleish as best Scottish player ever in my view.
I'm sort of guessing, but I think Reform's progress will be hampered in a GE by a failure to win seats in the big cities. I can't seem them winning more than a small handful of seats in London (73 constituencies), Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow, Sheffield, Leeds, Bristol and so on, even if their national vote is around 30%.
They'll knock it out of the park in Essex, Lincolnshire and Kent, though.
Reform are putting a lot of effort into the 2026 local elections in London.
The Secretary of the Richmond and Twickenham Reform Branch has just emailed me. This is what he says, in part:
There has been a lot going on behind the scenes, and the newly appointed team at Reform HQ have been putting in quite the shift in getting the support infrastructure for the upcoming campaigns in place. For us, this means preparing for the May 2026 local elections, where we are planning to field and then support a full slate of candidates (3 in each electoral ward). You can see a map of the borough here that shows the 18 wards in our Branch.
At this stage, I am looking to assemble ward captains who can co-ordinate the activities in each electoral ward, as well as individuals who are willing to put themselves forward to be a candidate . We will discuss this at the upcoming meetings, but please also get in touch with me directly if you are interested in finding out more about this.
Finally, the most important thing you can do is spread the word that Reform is 'open for business' in the London Borough of Richmond upon Thames. Please pass on the links below – it makes a very big difference when people sign up, become members and/or donate to our local branch.
Struggling to imagine any council area less likely to fall into Nigel's arms than this one.
If the Conservatives were to implode, I expect that Reforn’s ceiling would be 40%.
I think that's probably right, albeit with a slightly different footprint to the Conservative vote. The problem for Reform on 40%, though, is that the left wing vote in the UK is very efficient.
I think that's a sign that he's been cast out by Trump over his H1B posting over Christmas.
So Elon Musk now shoulders the burden of cutting trillions of $$$ from federal spending alone. That's a big job by anyone's standards. Expect a stepping back from his business interests and far less tweeting.
I think that's a sign that he's been cast out by Trump over his H1B posting over Christmas.
So Musk now shoulders the burden of cutting 2 trillion from federal spending alone. That's a big job by anyone's standards. Expect a stepping back from his business interests and far less tweeting.
So they've cut half the leadership of DOGE already. If they can do that for the rest of government...
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.
My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?
That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader
Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers
But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like
I did actually just Baxter those numbers and it gives
For Reform to get to 31% I would expect the Tories to be lower than 23% though and the LDs also to be higher than 9%
No! William Glenn says Ref government with Tory opposition. If Ref take both Con and Labour voters and Con take Lib, Labour and Green voters one would expect the Tories to be on more than circa 25%. Unless of course one believes William's thesis to be bollocks.
Not necessarily. It could be a Tory government with Reform opposition if enough centrist voters get behind Badenoch to block Farage.
Why would they do that?
Farage is awful, but it's not obvious that Badenoch is better. Indeed, by some measures, she is even more likely to jump into the populist deep end.
And is Farage awful? 10 years ago I'd have said of course. After Boris, Truss, and the likes of Williamson, Patel, Hancock, JRM at the heart of government, Farage doesn't stand out as clearly worse. I suspect he would govern similarly to Boris, enjoy a similar honeymoon period and a similar fall out by running out of MPs willing to bat for him.
He's pretty awful. I'd be horrified if he became PM. He's got some interesting and sometimes wise views, and I'm very happy he's part of day-to-day politics. Williamson is the only one of those that you list that I'd be less keen on to lead the country, although of course Truss has totally gone now.
Farage is a country mile better than Corbyn, and look at all the fools who voted for him.
How is Farage a “country mile better than Corbyn”?
Both are organisationally inept ideologues peddling populist film-flam.
Well.... I trust, if that's the word, Farage not to wreck the country - and I mean simply abandon it to the winds, more than I do Corbyn. Much more. Corbyn would happily screw everyone.
If Farage were actually to follow through with the sort of policies he talks about, the country would be in for a very painful economic restructuring. That’s not to say it would be impossible - plenty have done it around the world before - but it would not be an easy ride.
Yes. Should he become PM there's a lot of risk. The Tories gave us Boris and Truss - mix them up and filter out the good bits, and you get what's on offer from a Reform PM (Farage is better than the others in his party)
Having had the dubious pleasure of spending several hours drinking and talking with him I would give my absolutely fool proof insight.
He’s a bit of a one trick pony, or was. He’s not the most interesting man and very far from being a renaissance man. He’s a nice man. He’s polite and pleasant. He loves his vision of the UK, maybe really England. He’s not stupid. He probably sees himself as one of the stout yeoman of Agincourt (to hark to earlier posts). He thinks he would have been drinking with Hal and Falstaff. He wants, truly, Britain to be great.
I think he probably should have worked his way through Tory ranks but it was probably too much like hard work. He saw an opening and a lazy shortcut.
I think he is actually, by virtue of his beliefs and career background, one of the few politicians where if he had power would listen to people who know their shit about the economy and business even if it disagreed with easy statements he made to get elected.
He’s not and Orban or a Fico. He’s not Mosley, Le Pen, Tommy, Putin.
I don’t want reform governing, I want a strong Tory party with sensible economic and social ideas, but if the worst populist we get is Nige then we are very very lucky.
"Polite and pleasant....." I think you're confusing him with a different Farage.
I'm sort of guessing, but I think Reform's progress will be hampered in a GE by a failure to win seats in the big cities. I can't seem them winning more than a small handful of seats in London (73 constituencies), Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow, Sheffield, Leeds, Bristol and so on, even if their national vote is around 30%.
They'll knock it out of the park in Essex, Lincolnshire and Kent, though.
Reform are putting a lot of effort into the 2026 local elections in London.
The Secretary of the Richmond and Twickenham Reform Branch has just emailed me. This is what he says, in part:
There has been a lot going on behind the scenes, and the newly appointed team at Reform HQ have been putting in quite the shift in getting the support infrastructure for the upcoming campaigns in place. For us, this means preparing for the May 2026 local elections, where we are planning to field and then support a full slate of candidates (3 in each electoral ward). You can see a map of the borough here that shows the 18 wards in our Branch.
At this stage, I am looking to assemble ward captains who can co-ordinate the activities in each electoral ward, as well as individuals who are willing to put themselves forward to be a candidate . We will discuss this at the upcoming meetings, but please also get in touch with me directly if you are interested in finding out more about this.
Finally, the most important thing you can do is spread the word that Reform is 'open for business' in the London Borough of Richmond upon Thames. Please pass on the links below – it makes a very big difference when people sign up, become members and/or donate to our local branch.
That means very little - talk is cheap and setting high aspirations in an email 16 months out from an election is cheaper still. Saying "a lot going on behind the scenes" is code for "f*** all going on in front of the scenes".
No doubt champagne corks would be popping at Lib Dem HQ in Richmond if RefUK ran a full slate of 54 candidates in that area in 2026, with a more than paper effort in each ward.
Is that massively realistic in a heavily Remain area with 4k RefUK voters in 2024? I wouldn't have thought so.
I think that's a sign that he's been cast out by Trump over his H1B posting over Christmas.
So Musk now shoulders the burden of cutting 2 trillion from federal spending alone. That's a big job by anyone's standards. Expect a stepping back from his business interests and far less tweeting.
So they've cut half the leadership of DOGE already. If they can do that for the rest of government...
Law Best and Charlton. All gone. Greatest forward line in English football history. Made me a Man U supporter as a kid which was great in middle age, not so much these days.
I have just heard the news of Dennis passing and it really does sadden me, but it takes me back to the times I watched them play such magical football at OT and it was a privilege
I met Bobby some years later and he was excellent company and so interesting
I think that's a sign that he's been cast out by Trump over his H1B posting over Christmas.
So Musk now shoulders the burden of cutting 2 trillion from federal spending alone. That's a big job by anyone's standards. Expect a stepping back from his business interests and far less tweeting.
So they've cut half the leadership of DOGE already. If they can do that for the rest of government...
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.
My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?
That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader
Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
Turned north sea oil back on Laid out a credible plan to reform planning and kick start housing builds Agreed new runways for Heathrow and Gatwick Suggested that the “closest partnership” with the single market was settled strategy Announced a reduction in corporate tax Designated the M6 for automated driving trials.
The economy would actually soar.
I see the IMF have upgraded our projected growth in 2025 to 1.6% not quite the highest in the G7, but respectable.
Pathetic. I thought Trump was bring the 'warrior class' back to Washington?
Not cold warriors, though.
There is a bizarre thing in American politics for politicians not wearing suitable clothes in cold weather.
They joked about several times on The West Wing.
Presumably because it actually happened to William Henry Harrison. I say "actually" - he died not long after inauguration and received wisdom it was from a chill caught at his inauguration, but I think the evidence is patchy. The timing broadly works but it was probably a more serious illness and no real reason other than approximate time to link it to that.
Turned north sea oil back on Laid out a credible plan to reform planning and kick start housing builds Agreed new runways for Heathrow and Gatwick Suggested that the “closest partnership” with the single market was settled strategy Announced a reduction in corporate tax Designated the M6 for automated driving trials.
The economy would actually soar.
I see the IMF have upgraded our projected growth in 2025 to 1.6% not quite the highest in the G7, but respectable.
The UK is likely currently in recession, and you have to deflate that number by population growth.
The IMF uses input based modelling for public expenditure, the ONS/OBR uses output based measurements for public expenditure. Their forecasts are based around the additional state spending resulting in higher growth but both the OBR and ONS will be factoring in much lower productivity for 2025 and 2026. I'd be highly surprised if the UK economy grew anywhere near 1.6% based on a big increase in state OpEx.
The difference in measurement of the public sector is actually one of the reasons the UK lagged behind similar countries during thr COVID recovery, our state became so wildly unproductive that it dragged down the private sector recovery and because the ONS has been struggling to get a full picture of the private sector big chunks of the economy weren't counted in the first few estimates.
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.
My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?
That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader
Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers
But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like
REF: 32 LAB: 24 CON: 24 LD: 10 GN: 7
Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?
I wouldn't be surprised if we got a result like that but with CON and REF swapped over. I don't know why (maybe it's the wine I had with dinner) but I get a sense that the Tories can recover if they stay on message about honesty and building back trust.
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
Quoting Allison Pearson and Katherine Birbelsingh as non partisans is interesting. Mandy Rice-Davies applies.
I never liked Birbelsingh before I knew she was a raging Tory. I don't like her methods. Are we sure they work as well as she claims? Lies, damned lies and statistics and all that.
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
Quoting Allison Pearson and Katherine Birbelsingh as non partisans is interesting. Mandy Rice-Davies applies.
I never liked Birbelsingh before I knew she was a raging Tory. I don't like her methods. Are we sure they work as well as she claims? Lies, damned lies and statistics and all that.
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
Quoting Allison Pearson and Katherine Birbelsingh as non partisans is interesting. Mandy Rice-Davies applies.
I never liked Birbelsingh before I knew she was a raging Tory. I don't like her methods. Are we sure they work as well as she claims? Lies, damned lies and statistics and all that.
Fortunately I don't have Twitter so remain uninformed.
Strangers bar to shut on Monday after alleged spiking
You're not sleeping with Guido are you? You used to be a serious poster albeit a dyed in the wool Tory one
Huh? The story has been reported in several outlets. Don’t you believe it?
Of course I believe it. It's trivial enough to be true.
I'm simply amazed at the nonsense people are interested in.
Someone having their drink spiked in a bar in parliament is a nonsense story?
Closing a bar when this kind of appalling crime happens indicates that multiple instances have happened and that the management of the bar has really shit about dealing with the problem.
Parliament is exempt from licensing regulations - but the current Speaker seems to take his duty of care towards MPs and parliamentary staff reasonably seriously.
Yes, they are exempt.
I suspect that there is a history of incidents and poor response - which is why the bar has been closed.
There is a further angle to this - in London generally, the licensing authorities have been cracking down on premises that don’t take safeguarding seriously. It would be problematic to give a pass to the MPs own bar…
Now if they could just extend that to the notion of H&S in old, falling-downy, buildings which resemble an Australian outback mine for being burny and asbestos-littered.
Bit harsh on the Scottish Parliament, there.
Well, given it was London Labour and the LDs who insisted, perhaps one shouldn't be surprised, when they had the Royal High School - but no, that was a 'nationalist shibboleth'.
When I was at junior school in South Birmingham after Birmingham City and way ahead of Villa ( Villa were in the 3rd Division) in numbers came United. Loads of kids had duffle bags with pictures of Best, Law or Charlton printed on them. I'd say Law was even more popular than Best on the duffle bag poll.
Dirty Leeds were the team of the era but everyone at my school hated dirty Leeds.
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
Quoting Allison Pearson and Katherine Birbelsingh as non partisans is interesting. Mandy Rice-Davies applies.
I never liked Birbelsingh before I knew she was a raging Tory. I don't like her methods. Are we sure they work as well as she claims? Lies, damned lies and statistics and all that.
Fortunately I don't have Twitter so remain uninformed.
Neither do I, but self promotion in the media and a hierarchical and almost military style of discipline seems very 1950s. I am unconvinced that being aggressive to children is of long term benefit to them.
Turned north sea oil back on Laid out a credible plan to reform planning and kick start housing builds Agreed new runways for Heathrow and Gatwick Suggested that the “closest partnership” with the single market was settled strategy Announced a reduction in corporate tax Designated the M6 for automated driving trials.
The economy would actually soar.
I see the IMF have upgraded our projected growth in 2025 to 1.6% not quite the highest in the G7, but respectable.
This sort of thing brings anti-corruption efforts into disrepute. What is it Sadiq is supposed to have done in return for Taylor Swift tickets? What about everyone else on freebies at the concerts?
On the one hand, the rich can buy their own bloody tickets, but stop this endless crying wolf about trivia.
Corruption doesn’t have to be tied to a specific quid pro quo - it can be excessive hospitality.
Turned north sea oil back on Laid out a credible plan to reform planning and kick start housing builds Agreed new runways for Heathrow and Gatwick Suggested that the “closest partnership” with the single market was settled strategy Announced a reduction in corporate tax Designated the M6 for automated driving trials.
The economy would actually soar.
I see the IMF have upgraded our projected growth in 2025 to 1.6% not quite the highest in the G7, but respectable.
When I was at junior school in South Birmingham after Birmingham City and way ahead of Villa ( Villa were in the 3rd Division) in numbers came United. Loads of kids had duffle bags with pictures of Best, Law or Charlton printed on them. I'd say Law was even more popular than Best on the duffle bag poll.
Dirty Leeds were the team of the era but everyone at my school hated dirty Leeds.
Jackie Stewart used to come back to his old school to cheer the kids up. He was fantastic with kids who had dyslexia - really bigged them up.
Makes you wonder what the Reform polling ceiling is. I seem to remember the SDP hitting 50% at their peak.
The Alliance did very well in polling around the end of 1981, with one outlier putting it at 50%. General Galtieri then intervened and the rest is history.
My instinct is that Reform are too Marmite to improve their vote share much beyond 25% or to get anywhere close to winning a General Election, but frankly if the Tories rolled over and died leaving a big section of the electorate politically homeless then who knows?
Farage got 30% in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with the Brexit Party, albeit that was with the Tories collapsing to 9%
Doesn’t Farage personally get ~33% approval?
That’s likely the Reform ceiling, approximately, as long as he’s leader
Certainly enough for Reform to lead a rightwing coalition govt with the Tories after GE 28
If Reform get 33%, how many seats do the Tories get?
Dunno. It’s midnight in Rangoon and I can’t be arsed to Baxter numbers
But my totally nonsense long range prediction is a GE result of something like
REF: 32 LAB: 24 CON: 24 LD: 10 GN: 7
Which would surely result in a refcon HMG?
I wouldn't be surprised if we got a result like that but with CON and REF swapped over. I don't know why (maybe it's the wine I had with dinner) but I get a sense that the Tories can recover if they stay on message about honesty and building back trust.
Also, the next election could have a lot of tactical voting FOR the CON (certainly from LIB voters) to try and keep REF out.
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
Quoting Allison Pearson and Katherine Birbelsingh as non partisans is interesting. Mandy Rice-Davies applies.
I never liked Birbelsingh before I knew she was a raging Tory. I don't like her methods. Are we sure they work as well as she claims? Lies, damned lies and statistics and all that.
What's the difference between just quoting someone, and "quoting them as non partisans"?
Pathetic. I thought Trump was bring the 'warrior class' back to Washington?
Not cold warriors, though.
There is a bizarre thing in American politics for politicians not wearing suitable clothes in cold weather.
They joked about several times on The West Wing.
Wikipedia, Jan 20th 2025:
"Donald J Trump's term of office lasted all of five minutes before he succumbed to the bitter cold of inauguration day having refused repeatedly his wife's requests that he wear a vest and a decent overcoat and not just a MAGA cap."
Would be a fairly hellish inauguration if Trump *just* wore a MAGA cap.
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
Quoting Allison Pearson and Katherine Birbelsingh as non partisans is interesting. Mandy Rice-Davies applies.
I never liked Birbelsingh before I knew she was a raging Tory. I don't like her methods. Are we sure they work as well as she claims? Lies, damned lies and statistics and all that.
What's the difference between just quoting someone, and "quoting them as non partisans"?
I was not shooting the messenger. I was explaining I am unconvinced by Birbelsingh and her methods and her opinion. I wouldn't want to go to her school. Alison Pearson is promoting Birbelsingh's analysis as confirmation Phillipson is wrong. Pearson is known to be very much a Conservative cheerleader.
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
Quoting Allison Pearson and Katherine Birbelsingh as non partisans is interesting. Mandy Rice-Davies applies.
I never liked Birbelsingh before I knew she was a raging Tory. I don't like her methods. Are we sure they work as well as she claims? Lies, damned lies and statistics and all that.
Pathetic. I thought Trump was bring the 'warrior class' back to Washington?
Not cold warriors, though.
There is a bizarre thing in American politics for politicians not wearing suitable clothes in cold weather.
They joked about several times on The West Wing.
Wikipedia, Jan 20th 2025:
"Donald J Trump's term of office lasted all of five minutes before he succumbed to the bitter cold of inauguration day having refused repeatedly his wife's requests that he wear a vest and a decent overcoat and not just a MAGA cap."
Would be a fairly hellish inauguration if Trump *just* wore a MAGA cap.
I don't believe he could manage such a lengthy event without a MAGA merch matching Trump diaper.
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
Quoting Allison Pearson and Katherine Birbelsingh as non partisans is interesting. Mandy Rice-Davies applies.
I never liked Birbelsingh before I knew she was a raging Tory. I don't like her methods. Are we sure they work as well as she claims? Lies, damned lies and statistics and all that.
What's the difference between just quoting someone, and "quoting them as non partisans"?
I was not shooting the messenger. I was explaining I am unconvinced by Birbelsingh and her methods and her opinion. I wouldn't want to go to her school. Alison Pearson is promoting Birbelsingh's analysis as confirmation Phillipson is wrong. Pearson is known to be very much a Conservative cheerleader.
Maybe they are right. Colour me sceptical.
You may or may not want to go to Birbalsingh's school. I wouldn't.. But ut is tremendously popular and oversubscribed. Surely it is good that a school which meets parental demands is allowed to exist?
Turned north sea oil back on Laid out a credible plan to reform planning and kick start housing builds Agreed new runways for Heathrow and Gatwick Suggested that the “closest partnership” with the single market was settled strategy Announced a reduction in corporate tax Designated the M6 for automated driving trials.
The economy would actually soar.
I see the IMF have upgraded our projected growth in 2025 to 1.6% not quite the highest in the G7, but respectable.
What do the IMF know compared to the PB Brains Trust?
I’m not even questioning the IMF. I just think 1.6 is barely noticeable, and not good enough.
Labour's plan requires growth above the long term trend. 1.6% might as well be going backwards in that case. So yes it might be growth, and it might be better than some others, but it's not what Labour are banking on.
If at the end of five years all Starmer can say is "well the Tories might have been worse" he's toast. He's not transforming Britain without much higher growth.
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
Quoting Allison Pearson and Katherine Birbelsingh as non partisans is interesting. Mandy Rice-Davies applies.
I never liked Birbelsingh before I knew she was a raging Tory. I don't like her methods. Are we sure they work as well as she claims? Lies, damned lies and statistics and all that.
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
Quoting Allison Pearson and Katherine Birbelsingh as non partisans is interesting. Mandy Rice-Davies applies.
I never liked Birbelsingh before I knew she was a raging Tory. I don't like her methods. Are we sure they work as well as she claims? Lies, damned lies and statistics and all that.
I suspect the results are genuine.
No endorsement is implied of Birbelsingh as person or of the school as a place you would want to send your children to.
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
Quoting Allison Pearson and Katherine Birbelsingh as non partisans is interesting. Mandy Rice-Davies applies.
I never liked Birbelsingh before I knew she was a raging Tory. I don't like her methods. Are we sure they work as well as she claims? Lies, damned lies and statistics and all that.
What is it about her methods you don't like?
I don't believe, from what I have seen on her self agrandising TV appearances that she respects her students. I don't approve of all the marine style "stand up, sit down" nonsense. Her claim is this subdues the students into submission and they behave themselves, pass all their exams and become pillars of society. I didn't treat my children like that and they have done OK.
In my day rather than some oaf shouting "stand up, sit down " orders to break us at Grammar school our teachers used to beat us with a training shoe. A similar principle from what I can see.
Shock election forecast: if Reform and the Tories tie on 31% and Labour sink to the teens, we could have a result like this with Reform 73 short of a majority:
Highly unlikely, but it would be an amazing performance if SKS leads Labour to both nearly their best and by far their worst general election results in modern history.
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
Quoting Allison Pearson and Katherine Birbelsingh as non partisans is interesting. Mandy Rice-Davies applies.
I never liked Birbelsingh before I knew she was a raging Tory. I don't like her methods. Are we sure they work as well as she claims? Lies, damned lies and statistics and all that.
What's the difference between just quoting someone, and "quoting them as non partisans"?
I was not shooting the messenger. I was explaining I am unconvinced by Birbelsingh and her methods and her opinion. I wouldn't want to go to her school. Alison Pearson is promoting Birbelsingh's analysis as confirmation Phillipson is wrong. Pearson is known to be very much a Conservative cheerleader.
Maybe they are right. Colour me sceptical.
You may or may not want to go to Birbalsingh's school. I wouldn't.. But ut is tremendously popular and oversubscribed. Surely it is good that a school which meets parental demands is allowed to exist?
I wouldn't send mine there, but if it does the job for other people's children that is great. My wider point is as an educationalist I don't rate her methods and opinion.
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
She's absolutely right about the issues raised by the curriculum review, and I agree with her.
The international statistics are not nearly as clear cut as she claims. In particular, the sample sizes were rather warped by outside factors. Moreover, there are major issues coming with literacy due to that imbecile Spielman's bungling of OFSTED systems, which was definitely a Tory disaster.
Why should the Secretary of State congratulate particular schools doing well on one metric? That seemed a petty criticism.
Uniforms are an issue, but I don't agree with her about the need for them to be essential. Too often they are a convenient cash cow for schools.
I don't know of any academy chains that pay other than main scale/upper scale. Some private schools do, although most pay lower rates than the state sector. It may be different in London. Anyone who says financing it is achieved by 'cutting back office functions' or 'thinking outside the box' should probably be ignored anyway.
The real issue is that the everything Labour is doing is ignoring the actual problem - we're trying to have Scandinavian teaching systems with French class sizes and Chinese budgets. We've tried that for forty years and we've reached the end of the road. Time to choose what model we actually want.
Shock election forecast: if Reform and the Tories tie on 31% and Labour sink to the teens, we could have a result like this with Reform 73 short of a majority:
Highly unlikely, but it would be an amazing performance if SKS leads Labour to both nearly their best and by far their worst general election results in modern history.
Hubris meet Nemesis?
If it looks like he is getting a hiding at the next election he will be gone by mid 2028. So even if Labour get spanked, Starmer won't.
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
Quoting Allison Pearson and Katherine Birbelsingh as non partisans is interesting. Mandy Rice-Davies applies.
I never liked Birbelsingh before I knew she was a raging Tory. I don't like her methods. Are we sure they work as well as she claims? Lies, damned lies and statistics and all that.
What is it about her methods you don't like?
Their success
I don't think her letter is about her methods. It is about why Latin funding is being cut for state schools just before the GCSE exam and national curriculum issues.
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
Quoting Allison Pearson and Katherine Birbelsingh as non partisans is interesting. Mandy Rice-Davies applies.
I never liked Birbelsingh before I knew she was a raging Tory. I don't like her methods. Are we sure they work as well as she claims? Lies, damned lies and statistics and all that.
What is it about her methods you don't like?
Their success
I don't think her letter is about her methods. It is about why Latin funding is being cut for state schools just before the GCSE exam and national curriculum issues.
Which, to be fair, is a very silly mistake. Even if we accept it was an expensive frill that could be cut (and there are more expensive other frills that could be cut with actual benefit, such as the Teach First nonsense) there is a time to do it and that time isn't the middle of the school year. It's in July with due notice.
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
Quoting Allison Pearson and Katherine Birbelsingh as non partisans is interesting. Mandy Rice-Davies applies.
I never liked Birbelsingh before I knew she was a raging Tory. I don't like her methods. Are we sure they work as well as she claims? Lies, damned lies and statistics and all that.
What's the difference between just quoting someone, and "quoting them as non partisans"?
I was not shooting the messenger. I was explaining I am unconvinced by Birbelsingh and her methods and her opinion. I wouldn't want to go to her school. Alison Pearson is promoting Birbelsingh's analysis as confirmation Phillipson is wrong. Pearson is known to be very much a Conservative cheerleader.
Maybe they are right. Colour me sceptical.
You may or may not want to go to Birbalsingh's school. I wouldn't.. But ut is tremendously popular and oversubscribed. Surely it is good that a school which meets parental demands is allowed to exist?
FWIW she says in her letter she is not a conservative member and did not vote for them.
Pathetic. I thought Trump was bring the 'warrior class' back to Washington?
Not cold warriors, though.
There is a bizarre thing in American politics for politicians not wearing suitable clothes in cold weather.
They joked about several times on The West Wing.
Wikipedia, Jan 20th 2025:
"Donald J Trump's term of office lasted all of five minutes before he succumbed to the bitter cold of inauguration day having refused repeatedly his wife's requests that he wear a vest and a decent overcoat and not just a MAGA cap."
Would be a fairly hellish inauguration if Trump *just* wore a MAGA cap.
Pathetic. I thought Trump was bring the 'warrior class' back to Washington?
Not cold warriors, though.
There is a bizarre thing in American politics for politicians not wearing suitable clothes in cold weather.
They joked about several times on The West Wing.
Wikipedia, Jan 20th 2025:
"Donald J Trump's term of office lasted all of five minutes before he succumbed to the bitter cold of inauguration day having refused repeatedly his wife's requests that he wear a vest and a decent overcoat and not just a MAGA cap."
Would be a fairly hellish inauguration if Trump *just* wore a MAGA cap.
Depends where he wears it.
It would only need to be a very small cap to cover everything essential.
When I was at junior school in South Birmingham after Birmingham City and way ahead of Villa ( Villa were in the 3rd Division) in numbers came United. Loads of kids had duffle bags with pictures of Best, Law or Charlton printed on them. I'd say Law was even more popular than Best on the duffle bag poll.
Dirty Leeds were the team of the era but everyone at my school hated dirty Leeds.
Shame. I've worked with all three of them at one time or another. All very affable.
When I was at junior school in South Birmingham after Birmingham City and way ahead of Villa ( Villa were in the 3rd Division) in numbers came United. Loads of kids had duffle bags with pictures of Best, Law or Charlton printed on them. I'd say Law was even more popular than Best on the duffle bag poll.
Dirty Leeds were the team of the era but everyone at my school hated dirty Leeds.
Turned north sea oil back on Laid out a credible plan to reform planning and kick start housing builds Agreed new runways for Heathrow and Gatwick Suggested that the “closest partnership” with the single market was settled strategy Announced a reduction in corporate tax Designated the M6 for automated driving trials.
The economy would actually soar.
I see the IMF have upgraded our projected growth in 2025 to 1.6% not quite the highest in the G7, but respectable.
What do the IMF know compared to the PB Brains Trust?
I’m not even questioning the IMF. I just think 1.6 is barely noticeable, and not good enough.
Labour's plan requires growth above the long term trend. 1.6% might as well be going backwards in that case. So yes it might be growth, and it might be better than some others, but it's not what Labour are banking on.
If at the end of five years all Starmer can say is "well the Tories might have been worse" he's toast. He's not transforming Britain without much higher growth.
Nobody's transforming Britain in a parliament. It's a pipedream.
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
Quoting Allison Pearson and Katherine Birbelsingh as non partisans is interesting. Mandy Rice-Davies applies.
I never liked Birbelsingh before I knew she was a raging Tory. I don't like her methods. Are we sure they work as well as she claims? Lies, damned lies and statistics and all that.
What is it about her methods you don't like?
I don't believe, from what I have seen on her self agrandising TV appearances that she respects her students. I don't approve of all the marine style "stand up, sit down" nonsense. Her claim is this subdues the students into submission and they behave themselves, pass all their exams and become pillars of society. I didn't treat my children like that and they have done OK.
In my day rather than some oaf shouting "stand up, sit down " orders to break us at Grammar school our teachers used to beat us with a training shoe. A similar principle from what I can see.
Training shoe? You were lucky. At Newent, it was a full mace.
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
She's absolutely right about the issues raised by the curriculum review, and I agree with her.
The international statistics are not nearly as clear cut as she claims. In particular, the sample sizes were rather warped by outside factors. Moreover, there are major issues coming with literacy due to that imbecile Spielman's bungling of OFSTED systems, which was definitely a Tory disaster.
Why should the Secretary of State congratulate particular schools doing well on one metric? That seemed a petty criticism.
Uniforms are an issue, but I don't agree with her about the need for them to be essential. Too often they are a convenient cash cow for schools.
I don't know of any academy chains that pay other than main scale/upper scale. Some private schools do, although most pay lower rates than the state sector. It may be different in London. Anyone who says financing it is achieved by 'cutting back office functions' or 'thinking outside the box' should probably be ignored anyway.
The real issue is that the everything Labour is doing is ignoring the actual problem - we're trying to have Scandinavian teaching systems with French class sizes and Chinese budgets. We've tried that for forty years and we've reached the end of the road. Time to choose what model we actually want.
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
Quoting Allison Pearson and Katherine Birbelsingh as non partisans is interesting. Mandy Rice-Davies applies.
I never liked Birbelsingh before I knew she was a raging Tory. I don't like her methods. Are we sure they work as well as she claims? Lies, damned lies and statistics and all that.
What is it about her methods you don't like?
Their success
I don't think her letter is about her methods. It is about why Latin funding is being cut for state schools just before the GCSE exam and national curriculum issues.
Which, to be fair, is a very silly mistake. Even if we accept it was an expensive frill that could be cut (and there are more expensive other frills that could be cut with actual benefit, such as the Teach First nonsense) there is a time to do it and that time isn't the middle of the school year. It's in July with due notice.
I agree with your analysis and pulling courses mid academic year is ludicrous. They've been pulling these stunts at University for decades. It seems grossly unfair to cancel a course half way through it's duration. Isn't there supposed to be an assumption that students shouldn't be disadvantaged by the system? Be that the tutor, the establishment or in this case national government.
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
She's absolutely right about the issues raised by the curriculum review, and I agree with her.
The international statistics are not nearly as clear cut as she claims. In particular, the sample sizes were rather warped by outside factors. Moreover, there are major issues coming with literacy due to that imbecile Spielman's bungling of OFSTED systems, which was definitely a Tory disaster.
Why should the Secretary of State congratulate particular schools doing well on one metric? That seemed a petty criticism.
Uniforms are an issue, but I don't agree with her about the need for them to be essential. Too often they are a convenient cash cow for schools.
I don't know of any academy chains that pay other than main scale/upper scale. Some private schools do, although most pay lower rates than the state sector. It may be different in London. Anyone who says financing it is achieved by 'cutting back office functions' or 'thinking outside the box' should probably be ignored anyway.
The real issue is that the everything Labour is doing is ignoring the actual problem - we're trying to have Scandinavian teaching systems with French class sizes and Chinese budgets. We've tried that for forty years and we've reached the end of the road. Time to choose what model we actually want.
We'd like Singaporean results for free please.
Indeed.
Among other things I'd like would be for the DfE to show some sense, but that won't happen either.
Edit - incidentally hope you and the family are all OK.
When I was at junior school in South Birmingham after Birmingham City and way ahead of Villa ( Villa were in the 3rd Division) in numbers came United. Loads of kids had duffle bags with pictures of Best, Law or Charlton printed on them. I'd say Law was even more popular than Best on the duffle bag poll.
Dirty Leeds were the team of the era but everyone at my school hated dirty Leeds.
Oh. Which bit of south birmingham were you in?
I was dragged up in SW Brum - 1970s/early 80s.
Quite a few Baggies fans at the time.
Wythall/ Hollywood. I lived for 15 years (until 1977) just off the Alcester (Allsesster to you and me) Road near "Beckett's Island". I went to Woodrush High School.
There were three Baggies in my year. Boing, boing.
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
Quoting Allison Pearson and Katherine Birbelsingh as non partisans is interesting. Mandy Rice-Davies applies.
I never liked Birbelsingh before I knew she was a raging Tory. I don't like her methods. Are we sure they work as well as she claims? Lies, damned lies and statistics and all that.
What is it about her methods you don't like?
I don't believe, from what I have seen on her self agrandising TV appearances that she respects her students. I don't approve of all the marine style "stand up, sit down" nonsense. Her claim is this subdues the students into submission and they behave themselves, pass all their exams and become pillars of society. I didn't treat my children like that and they have done OK.
In my day rather than some oaf shouting "stand up, sit down " orders to break us at Grammar school our teachers used to beat us with a training shoe. A similar principle from what I can see.
Training shoe? You were lucky. At Newent, it was a full mace.
(Something about gravel.)
That was at Ledbury Grammar School. We never got randomly beaten at Woodrush, although there was a queue every lunchtime outside the Head of School's offices for the smokers to take their daily canings.
When I was at junior school in South Birmingham after Birmingham City and way ahead of Villa ( Villa were in the 3rd Division) in numbers came United. Loads of kids had duffle bags with pictures of Best, Law or Charlton printed on them. I'd say Law was even more popular than Best on the duffle bag poll.
Dirty Leeds were the team of the era but everyone at my school hated dirty Leeds.
Oh. Which bit of south birmingham were you in?
I was dragged up in SW Brum - 1970s/early 80s.
Quite a few Baggies fans at the time.
Wythall/ Hollywood. I lived for 15 years (until 1977) just off the Alcester (Allsesster to you and me) Road near "Beckett's Island". I went to Woodrush High School.
There were three Baggies in my year. Boing, boing.
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children. Please take a minute to read and RT;
Quoting Allison Pearson and Katherine Birbelsingh as non partisans is interesting. Mandy Rice-Davies applies.
I never liked Birbelsingh before I knew she was a raging Tory. I don't like her methods. Are we sure they work as well as she claims? Lies, damned lies and statistics and all that.
What is it about her methods you don't like?
I don't believe, from what I have seen on her self agrandising TV appearances that she respects her students. I don't approve of all the marine style "stand up, sit down" nonsense. Her claim is this subdues the students into submission and they behave themselves, pass all their exams and become pillars of society. I didn't treat my children like that and they have done OK.
In my day rather than some oaf shouting "stand up, sit down " orders to break us at Grammar school our teachers used to beat us with a training shoe. A similar principle from what I can see.
Training shoe? You were lucky. At Newent, it was a full mace.
(Something about gravel.)
Is that Four Yorkshiremen about to enter the conversation?
When I was at junior school in South Birmingham after Birmingham City and way ahead of Villa ( Villa were in the 3rd Division) in numbers came United. Loads of kids had duffle bags with pictures of Best, Law or Charlton printed on them. I'd say Law was even more popular than Best on the duffle bag poll.
Dirty Leeds were the team of the era but everyone at my school hated dirty Leeds.
Oh. Which bit of south birmingham were you in?
I was dragged up in SW Brum - 1970s/early 80s.
Quite a few Baggies fans at the time.
Wythall/ Hollywood. I lived for 15 years (until 1977) just off the Alcester (Allsesster to you and me) Road near "Beckett's Island". I went to Woodrush High School.
There were three Baggies in my year. Boing, boing.
I was Northfield/Selly Oak. Not far away!!!
Not far away at all. Cycle along Alcester Road to the Maypole turn left and head towards Kings Norton, pass the Man On the Moon on your right and bingo Cotteridge and then there you are Selly Oak.
JUST IN: Bill Gates says he was very “impressed” by Trump during their three hour dinner together.
Everyone is falling in line. Interesting.
Gates said he and the president elect had a very “intriguing” conversation about global health.
“[Trump was] energized and looking forward to helping to drive innovation. You know, I was frankly impressed with how well he showed a lot of interest in the issues I brought up.”
When I was at junior school in South Birmingham after Birmingham City and way ahead of Villa ( Villa were in the 3rd Division) in numbers came United. Loads of kids had duffle bags with pictures of Best, Law or Charlton printed on them. I'd say Law was even more popular than Best on the duffle bag poll.
Dirty Leeds were the team of the era but everyone at my school hated dirty Leeds.
Oh. Which bit of south birmingham were you in?
I was dragged up in SW Brum - 1970s/early 80s.
Quite a few Baggies fans at the time.
Wythall/ Hollywood. I lived for 15 years (until 1977) just off the Alcester (Allsesster to you and me) Road near "Beckett's Island". I went to Woodrush High School.
There were three Baggies in my year. Boing, boing.
That's where the greatest pop group of all time are from, Duran Duran.
JUST IN: Bill Gates says he was very “impressed” by Trump during their three hour dinner together.
Everyone is falling in line. Interesting.
Gates said he and the president elect had a very “intriguing” conversation about global health.
“[Trump was] energized and looking forward to helping to drive innovation. You know, I was frankly impressed with how well he showed a lot of interest in the issues I brought up.”
Tell me, Mr Gates, what first made you decide to suck up to the violent criminal who announced in advance he would rule like a dictator and lock up all his enemies?
JUST IN: Bill Gates says he was very “impressed” by Trump during their three hour dinner together.
Everyone is falling in line. Interesting.
Gates said he and the president elect had a very “intriguing” conversation about global health.
“[Trump was] energized and looking forward to helping to drive innovation. You know, I was frankly impressed with how well he showed a lot of interest in the issues I brought up.”
Of course he's humouring him, although perhaps they chewed the fat over old times at the Island owned by ... Now what was that guy's name?
Comments
But I really think that Davey has to bow out from the LibDems and ‘someone’ else take over.
Mind, I’ve no idea who.
I suspect he will do two more years into the mid-term and then stand down giving new person some time before GE.
He's doing a fantastic job of keeping banging on about social care - keep at it Davey I say!!!!
They joked about several times on The West Wing.
Ramaswamy plans run for Ohio governor
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5092021-ramaswamy-plans-run-for-governor-ohio/
I don't agree with all this - but the letter raises some serious issues about education stuff and as it says repeatedly - 'what is the problem you are trying to solve"??
Allison Pearson
@AllisonPearson
Blimey! What a letter. From a brilliant head teacher @Miss_Snuffy an Exocet straight into the heart of Bridget Phillipson’s “reforms” which seem almost designed to harm the life chances of poor children.
Please take a minute to read and RT;
https://x.com/AllisonPearson/status/1880302822794920385
I can see a flaw in this cunning plan Baldrick!!!
But I think Davey has another Election in him, and certainly has the wind in his sails.
"Donald J Trump's term of office lasted all of five minutes before he succumbed to the bitter cold of inauguration day having refused repeatedly his wife's requests that he wear a vest and a decent overcoat and not just a MAGA cap."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/ckgvny01x9go
What a week for The loss of glittering stars to die. Joan Plowright, Paul Danan, David Lynch, Diane Langton, Christopher Benjamin now Dennis Law.
CT Democrats propose modular nuclear power plants to tackle rising electricity costs
https://www.wshu.org/connecticut-news/2025-01-17/ct-democrats-electricity-costs
https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=1xbZsHv6&id=1A02394859ECD41AC1044AE2A65B4ABEC648088A&thid=OIP.1xbZsHv6BMofB9v8--QOcgHaEK&mediaurl=https://e3.365dm.com/19/07/768x432/skynews-brexit-party-eu_4707720.jpg?20190702122206&q=farage turns his back at the eu&ck=AE45BBA7A19BC18C1B1C9BD85C8A2512&idpp=rc&idpview=singleimage&form=rc2idp&brdr=1
No doubt champagne corks would be popping at Lib Dem HQ in Richmond if RefUK ran a full slate of 54 candidates in that area in 2026, with a more than paper effort in each ward.
Is that massively realistic in a heavily Remain area with 4k RefUK voters in 2024? I wouldn't have thought so.
I met Bobby some years later and he was excellent company and so interesting
RIP Dennis
I’ll get my coat…
EDIT and just gone one up with a wonder strike from the sub. Humble pie, please.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Nigel_Farage
The difference in measurement of the public sector is actually one of the reasons the UK lagged behind similar countries during thr COVID recovery, our state became so wildly unproductive that it dragged down the private sector recovery and because the ONS has been struggling to get a full picture of the private sector big chunks of the economy weren't counted in the first few estimates.
I am looking forward to the free sausages on Sunday.
I never liked Birbelsingh before I knew she was a raging Tory. I don't like her methods. Are we sure they work as well as she claims? Lies, damned lies and statistics and all that.
Dirty Leeds were the team of the era but everyone at my school hated dirty Leeds.
Looks like wishful thinking to me...
OK, I see your point...
Maybe they are right. Colour me sceptical.
If at the end of five years all Starmer can say is "well the Tories might have been worse" he's toast. He's not transforming Britain without much higher growth.
No endorsement is implied of Birbelsingh as person or of the school as a place you would want to send your children to.
In my day rather than some oaf shouting "stand up, sit down " orders to break us at Grammar school our teachers used to beat us with a training shoe. A similar principle from what I can see.
Hubris meet Nemesis?
The international statistics are not nearly as clear cut as she claims. In particular, the sample sizes were rather warped by outside factors. Moreover, there are major issues coming with literacy due to that imbecile Spielman's bungling of OFSTED systems, which was definitely a Tory disaster.
Why should the Secretary of State congratulate particular schools doing well on one metric? That seemed a petty criticism.
Uniforms are an issue, but I don't agree with her about the need for them to be essential. Too often they are a convenient cash cow for schools.
I don't know of any academy chains that pay other than main scale/upper scale. Some private schools do, although most pay lower rates than the state sector. It may be different in London. Anyone who says financing it is achieved by 'cutting back office functions' or 'thinking outside the box' should probably be ignored anyway.
The real issue is that the everything Labour is doing is ignoring the actual problem - we're trying to have Scandinavian teaching systems with French class sizes and Chinese budgets. We've tried that for forty years and we've reached the end of the road. Time to choose what model we actually want.
If only he'd realise earlier what was going to be most popular.
Voters say Biden deciding not to run again
was one of the best things he did in office..
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1880344597932728537
Perhaps the size of a mushroom cap?
I was dragged up in SW Brum - 1970s/early 80s.
Quite a few Baggies fans at the time.
(Something about gravel.)
Among other things I'd like would be for the DfE to show some sense, but that won't happen either.
Edit - incidentally hope you and the family are all OK.
There were three Baggies in my year. Boing, boing.
https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20250120T235959&p0=263&msg=45th+President+Donald+J.+Trump+Inauguration+2025&font=cursive&csz=1
And Greenland
https://news.sky.com/story/with-donald-trumps-inauguration-imminent-the-chagos-deal-appears-to-be-on-ice-13289575
Better than having the dozy old fool rule in America.
JUST IN: Bill Gates says he was very “impressed” by Trump during their three hour dinner together.
Everyone is falling in line. Interesting.
Gates said he and the president elect had a very “intriguing” conversation about global health.
“[Trump was] energized and looking forward to helping to drive innovation. You know, I was frankly impressed with how well he showed a lot of interest in the issues I brought up.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/articles/cq5gggy2pdno